#35
Rank
436
Comments
201
Likes Received
305
Likes Given
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Shayku
2 hours ago
And a few paragraphs before: "Still, polling movement is more likely to be “real” after surprises like the James Comey letter reopening an investigation into Clinton’s email server in October 2016. And the same is true after the set pieces of the campaign: debates, conventions, VP picks and candidates wrapping up their nominations. In fact, the model accounts for this latter group of circumstances, which we call “landmark events”: our polling averages are designed to be more aggressive after one of them occurs."
0
Shayku
1 week ago
Hello. This one should be a fun ride.
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Shayku
2 hours ago
"Lastly, the model is designed to be more aggressive toward the very end of the race. But by this I mean specifically the last week or week-and-a-half: four weeks out is a little too soon."
0
Shayku
1 week ago
Hello. This one should be a fun ride.
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Shayku
2 hours ago
On the last point? He says so in his last post:
0
Shayku
1 week ago
Hello. This one should be a fun ride.
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Shayku
2 hours ago
Nah. There's a good chance for a flip in the next days, and even if Kamala picks up, there are a lot of news cycles to go, the race is tight, and Nate's model only gets more aggressive as the final date approaches.
0
Shayku
1 week ago
Hello. This one should be a fun ride.
U.S. recession announced by NBER before May 2025?
Shayku
18 hours ago
Why are you on 'yes' then?
0
ThePolymath
21 hours ago
Suckers bet. It could be a year after any recession. NBER declared that the United States entered a recession in December 2007 - They announced it December 1, 2008.
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
21 hours ago
lol
0
Meow.Zedong
21 hours ago
Shhhh the Governor is speaking
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
21 hours ago
The rules are quite clear on this one.
0
UMAisGarbage
21 hours ago
This market sounds like UMA hell
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
21 hours ago
'The northern eyewall spreading ashore' is not landfall as per the definitions linked in the rules.
0
Shayku
21 hours ago
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
21 hours ago
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.
1
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
21 hours ago
source?
1
ssha5140
22 hours ago
recon into storm showing peak flight winds of 90kt. significant decrease. now if they'll report it in time...
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
1 day ago
It can't be 'confirmed' if it hasn't made landfall.
2
n/a
1 day ago
CAT 3 CONFIRMED
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
1 day ago
I hope not. Domer's on 4.
0
090x
1 day ago
i think that this market will be UMA market in the end
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
1 day ago
No this storm is a liberal lie built to make us believe in climate change so that we'll put our lives in the hands of the state and give up our toddlers' freedom to play with guns.
3
rickleshit
1 day ago
wow. as a meteorologist i'm straight up going to tell you that you are retarded.
Milton landfall at what category?
Shayku
1 day ago
CNN predicts landfall as 3. Their incentive is to exaggerate upwards, not downwards.
3
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Shayku
2 days ago
https://www.forexlive.com/news/unconfirmed-reports-of-explosions-in-iran-isfahan-nuke-site-20241007/
0
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Shayku
2 days ago
It was deleted
0
n/a
2 days ago
https://x.com/NoMrOnlyLovejoy/status/1843431465012605249
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
You're being disingenuous. The fact is that the resolution system is fundamentally flawed, in a way that that is dissonant with Poly's 'promise' and its public facing marketing of being the future of news. That kind of misalignment is not sustainable. You can blame the users for mass hysteria, but this is just one occurence, and it will keep happening as long as Poly remains dependent on a resolution system that is ripe for corruption.
2
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
the 2 whales that decide everything haven't revealed yet
0
n/a
3 days ago
Dose yes stand a chance ?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
This is why PM should fork UMA into a version where the total shares per person is capped.
0
-DFK-
3 days ago
so basically, what everybody seems to agree upon, is that it can be 90% going one way, and boom just like that it could reverse because 1 or 2 people have more voting rights than everybody else put together? Am I getting this right?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
aunt is right, this is going yes
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
I can't believe I have to say this, but intent precedes action.
1
rozi
3 days ago
It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
3 days ago
Does it also feature 2 previous markets, a risk to UMA reputation, a sus Domer figure and a debate on the word 'commence'? If so, I'm in.
4
SylvesterStallone
3 days ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Yea it could also be called Domer vs Polymarket.
0
crow
4 days ago
this market should be called Guess if the uma whales will vote yes or no
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
I believe in Poly.
1
washeduptradergoingtogreenerpastures
4 days ago
I believe in domer
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Oh STFU.
6
SylvesterStallone
4 days ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Clearly.
2
washeduptradergoingtogreenerpastures
4 days ago
I believe in domer
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
When the dealer leaves with your cash and never comes back, you don't realize his intentions until you've sat around for a while.
1
Kobafix
4 days ago
YOu could have only voted yes, if you think the invasion did happen or p4 if you think theres not enough evidence yet.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Make sure this is in the ER
0
n/a
4 days ago
https://www.un.org/en/lebanon-crisis-un-launches-426-million-aid-appeal-%E2%80%98limited%E2%80%99-israeli-ground-incursion-underway
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
It's a rumour. I don't want to compromise sources, even if it means sounding less credible.
0
coinflip
4 days ago
from where the news with UMA and PM?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Fork UMA, prevent whales in the voting system.
1
NUTZILLA
4 days ago
who should it rely on instead?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Rumor has it Poly is evaluating its dependence on UMA. As the platform takes off, it can't afford to rely on any dubious partners.
2
coinflip
4 days ago
just wait for the result, maybe UMA decides otherwise...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
I would advise all No holders to go read the ER. The evidence is overwhelming on all fronts. There's still time for you to flip. You'll be greeted with food and shelter.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Go read the evidence. It's overwhelming on all points. You still have time to flip.
1
druckenmiller
4 days ago
In the history books the start of invasions are always marked as when large conventional forces enter the territory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq#Preceding_special_forces_mission_in_al-Qa'im Small raids by special forces never count towards that. There were no clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in September ET time and there were never any large conventional forces in Lebanon in September ET time.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
We see now that it was the commencement of the invasion. The same way one looks back on their first job as the commencement of a career.
0
n/a
4 days ago
If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Does that make No holders the smallest circlejerkers?
2
NIGGA
4 days ago
Yes holders are the largest circlejerkers
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
'No' shift ending soon, wherever they are.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
I guess he looked the gift horse in the mouth.
5
aldynspeedruns
4 days ago
ur share count is going in the wrong direction
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Car, you're almost there. Be unburdened by what has been.
4
Car
4 days ago
its always the same story
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Well you're partly on Yes, aren't you?
2
Car
4 days ago
get my name out of your mouth. I am not on the YES side and dont support a YES resolution.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Anyone that wants to help truth prevail here whatever way they believe that truth to be add astandforanime on Discord and they'll give you an unbiased rundown on how to make your voice heard, good luck everyone!
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Do it, Yes army - this is legit.
2
RememberAmalek
4 days ago
Well the previous TWO Discord users had no idea what's at stake and poor communication skills so lets try this again, anyone that wants to help truth prevail here whatever way they believe that truth to be add astandforanime on Discord and they'll give you an unbiased rundown on how to make your voice heard, good luck everyone!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Uhh... you're reading the tea leaves upside down.
0
dancer
4 days ago
if this isn't resolved to a Yes, Polymarket and UMA's reputation will be in the DIRT, like DECRAPP!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Sup cat! Clearly a fake cat, but ok. I won't mis-species you.
1
Meow.Zedong
4 days ago
@Shayku - Real cat
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
That's why we rely on media consensus
9
n/a
4 days ago
The truth is that no one fucking knows what happened except for the boys who were actually there, on the ground from September 30th through October 2nd
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
Cash about to flood into Yes here.
2
Foreseeable.
4 days ago
Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
We're headed towards a market consensus here too, and the Yes gains from Nov haven't flooded in yet.
5
Greta-Tunafish
4 days ago
Currently, Y is trading significantly higher than N. Y was traded at nearly 90 cents on September 30/October 1. It was only UMA that caused the price drop. This means that, in addition to the media consensus, there was also a market consensus. And now UMA is supposed to override this market and media consensus? That cannot be right
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
He wasn't claimed the Nov market yet...
2
Foreseeable.
4 days ago
Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
4 days ago
I didn't see this argument proposed, might've missed it, but it's pretty good.
2
n/a
4 days ago
Looking closely at the chart will reveal the Yes value jumped over 75c at 30th of September
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
Glad to have you aboard.
5
HaterzLoserz
5 days ago
Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
On the resolution thread, it's one post per person
0
denizz
5 days ago
Maybe someone could post this to the discord for me -- my account is too new to post.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
Not terrible points, but the yes cases are better
0
Shayku
5 days ago
Here's an excerpt:
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
Crucially, UMA voted that (1) at the time of the first proposal for this market, proposed 2 hours before the deadline, there was not yet an invasion in Lebanon, and (2) at the time of the first proposal for the November invasion market, proposed 10 hours into October ET, there had also not yet been an invasion in Lebanon according to reporting. It is impossible to say that the invasion had not begun at 10 AM ET on October 1st, yet it had begun by 11:59 PM ET on September 30th. Other people have already posted ample evidence including statements by the UN, the USA, the Israeli army, and the Lebanese army that the invasion had not begun by 11:59 PM on September 30th, and instead, there were only several tactical raids going on at that time. It is also clear now that these raids have been ongoing for the past year (See Wall Street Journal article:
0
Shayku
5 days ago
Here's an excerpt:
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
Here's an excerpt:
0
Phrank
5 days ago
How are they defending NO in the discord?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
So why is this at 45c?
0
abdendriel
5 days ago
November market unanimously voted it was an invasion already
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
5 days ago
Lottery ticket
0
-DFK-
5 days ago
But nobody voted NO so far (obviously). What I don't understand is why people are holding NO shares. That just blows my mind. Why would anyone hold NO shares. What am I missing.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1291759526005178418
0
PolyRig-Fried
5 days ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Even UN and IDF backs up the “commencement of the operation” https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1841045490802053520 and https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776 - NO holders are in complete denial. Futhermore, the "commenced military offensive" has started "to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Again backed up by the UN and IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 and https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514 How do you raid residential homes and seize weapons, if you can't exert at least some control on the ground?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
5 days ago
Not a bad point.
0
Greta-Tunafish
5 days ago
If it is P4, Polymarkt must intervene. Perhaps that would even be bullish for September, because then they would have to make a decision there as well
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
100%. And just that fact makes it likely that Poly will want to break away from UMA, turning the UMA stakeholders into bag holders.
1
tiekoo
5 days ago
This market is no longer events betting but "how the UMA holders vote" betting.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
The credibility of UMA is starting to be in doubt, which affects its value.
0
n/a
5 days ago
In November, Uma Whale attempted to make it P4. This is why I say current uma holders are dishonest.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
5 days ago
When the November market hits, this will spike hard. Get your shares while they're cheap!
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
I mean, the other Yes case is to consider the preceding raids as part of the broader invasion offensive.
1
n/a
6 days ago
Is this literally going to come down to a time zone dispute?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
'It won't be the timezone' *makes the timezone argument*
1
TheGoober
6 days ago
It won't be about the time zone. The invasion was announced at 2 AM October 1st by the IDF, which places the starting time at 7 PM EDT September 30th.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Yep.
0
n/a
6 days ago
Is this literally going to come down to a time zone dispute?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Early morning in Israel is the previous day EST. This seals it.
2
n/a
6 days ago
Straight from the UN “Israel’s latest breach of international law – a ground invasion in violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and Security Council resolution 1701 – will only add to this mounting toll of death and displacement,” https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/lebanon-un-experts-deplore-israels-increasing-disregard-international-law
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
6 days ago
Yea, when this closes yes, September will pop
0
Nancy.Pelosi
6 days ago
Yes holders in this market would behoove themselves to look at the September market
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
6 days ago
Media consensus is overwhelming.
0
denizz
6 days ago
Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per the Institute for the Study of War. There is no consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions. This market **cannot resolve to yes at this time**, since intent to establish control of Lebanese territory has not been shown by consensus of reporting.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
6 days ago
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1842221701989273837
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
The market is at 95%, it will resolve Yes.
3
n/a
6 days ago
If it resolves to Yes maybe, if it resolves to: too early at the time of proposal will go to Zero here. The November market can then resolve to YES later still
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
It should spike, since it will confirm a foundational argument for Yes.
0
Scoobs
6 days ago
When the November market resolves Yes later today, What will that mean for this market?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
This is definitely true, but UMA holders also have an incentive to keep UMA credible.
0
n/a
6 days ago
Crazy. This market is not discussing facts. It's about whether someone will buy a large amount of uma tokens, around 20 million, and that backs up the facts.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Waiting to see if it goes down, and managing risk of ruin.
3
puremichigan23
6 days ago
why not lift the 39s then
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Presence on Sep 30 has been established. Control after Sep has been established. This hinges on whether the sep 30 raids can be considered as part of an offensive intended to establish control.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Add to the arguments above that many major outlets use the word 'invasion' in the headline - BBC, Vox, LA Times and many more.
4
TheWolfOfPolymarket
6 days ago
I don't disagree that they commenced a military offensive on the night of September 30, but is it truly intended to establish control over any portion of the country? It sounds to me that they are going in to knock out certain infrastructures as opposed to establish control. Please prove me wrong if you have evidence
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Shayku
6 days ago
Headlines say invasion, September 'enters' market closed 'yes', in retrospect that was clearly a 'commencement'.
3
TheWolfOfPolymarket
6 days ago
Yes holders, what are the biggest sources you have for believing yes? I hold no position yet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
6 days ago
Watch the Yes price on the September market skyrocket when this gets resolved to yes.
0
Smashtouille
6 days ago
watch the no price skyrocket when the september get resolved to no
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
I think the value of your position will go x2 or x3 very quickly.
0
io9000
1 week ago
I am extremely scared to lose money
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
It'll keep going, you should get more
0
io9000
1 week ago
Is that why my shares are going down
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
Horrible news cycle for Trump. The big lie is resurfacing, just as Vance's damning non-answer plays on a loop, alongside an otherwise stellar performance where he looked more presidential than Trump in every way.
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Not sure, but they're revealing over 24h. 5% revealed now.
0
Shayku
1 week ago
It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Yes.
1
iwantam4
1 week ago
So, in this system, the rich get richer cuz they are rich and buy the truth?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed
1
aenews2
1 week ago
97.6% P2 Yes
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Sure, but this ruling is not based on truth.
1
3potatoes
1 week ago
But ground troops did not enter…
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
with 0.1% tokens revealed
0
Shayku
1 week ago
Yes is now leading by a tiny margin
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Yes is now leading by a tiny margin
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/719352532354465833
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
P4 is leading but not all votes are in
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
The UMA system is about to be revealed as totally flawed at best.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Man, the UMA P4-P1 case looks REALLY good: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1290373714025906197
3
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Shayku
1 week ago
Hello. This one should be a fun ride.
2
bugra1
1 week ago
hello
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
If you read it, start from the top
3
Shayku
1 week ago
Man, the UMA P4-P1 case looks REALLY good: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1290373714025906197
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
Vance looked really good on that stage. Maybe he should be president.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Do you have evidence that UMA is not impartial?
0
dav1
1 week ago
How do we get Polymarket to do an ''emergency resolve'' of this market instead of letting 2 whales decide UMA?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
Ah yea, I saw that. That's their current line, same as Trump saying he'd love to debate 2-3 times, but the moderators are unfair. I won't say it means he'll debate, but it's in line with the theory that they're negotiating their way there.
0
n/a
1 week ago
Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
This.
1
n/a
1 week ago
Join UMA discord that’s where you opinion really matters
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
When did the November market resolve?
0
BuckMySalls
1 week ago
this is simple. all whales and sharp bettors are on the side where an equivalent market already resolved yes, all the community takeover buyers are on the other side and pumping their shares before the expiry date. in the next few hours, they will need to start taking profits or let the shares go to zero because thats how this game works.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Not quite, they could argue 'media consensus'.
0
zynyz
1 week ago
This 1 article settles the market 100%: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again, because I don't see the tweet. Link?
0
n/a
1 week ago
Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Did these make it into the UMA discussion?
0
Kf0106
1 week ago
Here are official sources that indicate Israeli troops did not enter Lebanon before September 30, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET: 1. Times of Israel: Reports confirmed that while there were rumors and preparations for a ground operation, no actual troop entry was reported before the end of September 30. Link to Times of Israel article . 2. Reuters: While airstrikes intensified, no Israeli troops had officially crossed into Lebanon by the end of September 30, 2024. Link to Reuters coverage. These sources confirm that the ground incursion did not begin until after the specified deadline.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Cool. Where do you see this? Which UMA channel?
0
n/a
1 week ago
UMA mod : To follow up on one of the points: time of assertion is important Only information available BEFORE someone proposes an outcome is to be considered Unless polymarket clarifies. (ITS HAPPENING GUYS)
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Ya found it
0
Phat.
1 week ago
I see the same was about to clip another 1k
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Do you have a link to it?
0
0x2A4cd726120A0d210ebE980328268163A6CB54E7-1720978918858
1 week ago
LFG boys UMA chat is looking like a NO to me...
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
No credible news source reports it as a fact, they all say 'Israel say'. No frontline reports corroborate Israel's claims.
2
Hugor21
1 week ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/has-israel-launched-a-ground-operation-into-lebanon both parties say otherwise, but we have not seen any actual evidence of israel in libanon.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
Can you provide credible reporting? Other than 'Israel says'? Because Hezbollah says otherwise, and I don't make the rules.
0
TimeQuestion
1 week ago
Classic case of the losing side dominating the comments and wasting their time on a losing fight.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
When someone does post about it, share it here so we can all amplify. And make the post rational and demonstrative for better effect.
1
Phat.
1 week ago
Its a No but we they going to Rig it ... I would go public with this on X because where else someone will listen to you
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
I've been looking for it, but all reporting says 'Israel says' while Hezbollah denies. I'd love to see the proof from the 'Yes' camp.
0
yevh97
1 week ago
Yes or No? Any proofs?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
"official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council" ...OR
2
Hamurabi
1 week ago
Gonna be a wild ride https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1841056432612884944?t=IYVW3HD-HV3pwZVjCJYfmw&s=19
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
yea the EV of the 'No' positon on that market actually looks good.
1
Meow.Zedong
1 week ago
This is very clearly no. Please buy more.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Correct
0
Shayku
1 week ago
No one has submitted yet.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Shayku
1 week ago
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822764
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Exactly. The invasion is a broadening.
0
itsari👻
1 week ago
In some ways, the invasion is viewed as a broadening of a large number of very short nightly special forces missions into southern Lebanon, which have been going on for an extended period. - jpost,
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
I guess they have defacto control over the area then.
2
itsari👻
1 week ago
IDF invasion of southern Lebanon meets no Hezbollah resistance The invasion is expected to end within weeks, and should consist of several short special forces missions into southern Lebanon. - jpost.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
No one has submitted yet.
0
nosrael
1 week ago
https://x.com/suppressednws/status/1841097247687147692?s=46 How can Russia demand this and this market not being resolved yet?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
Right on cue. He's just positioning to get the conditions he wants.
2
avadvsdfdsf
1 week ago
https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1840904696057237578 trump: I would love to have 2 or 3 more debates ... (notice the change in tone from no more debate)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Yep. Asking for a village to be evacuated and rolling tanks into it = control
5
Car
1 week ago
A message to Y holders: Israeli troops last fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, in a war that ended inconclusively after several weeks of fighting. Israeli officials anonymously told CNN that the offensive does not aim for a "long-term occupation." It should therefore not be a repeat of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. It was intended to create a buffer against attacks.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
We're not looking for 'occupation' here, just 'intention to establish control over any portion of Lebanon'.
7
Car
1 week ago
A message to Y holders: Israeli troops last fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, in a war that ended inconclusively after several weeks of fighting. Israeli officials anonymously told CNN that the offensive does not aim for a "long-term occupation." It should therefore not be a repeat of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. It was intended to create a buffer against attacks.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
There is nothing about 'occupying'.
1
n/a
1 week ago
There are two different markets for a reason: One for entering and fighting in lebanon, and one for controlling and occupying. But Ig we'll see.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
I don't see how my comment influenced Trump's choice. I'm pointing out that he looks weak, like he rarely has before. Trump hates projecting weakness.
0
io9000
1 week ago
He wont give vance the last wordt because he will be live commenting on the debate. What a genius move now he doesn’t have to care about another debate: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113227471530921481
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
lol what a weakling
1
io9000
1 week ago
He wont give vance the last wordt because he will be live commenting on the debate. What a genius move now he doesn’t have to care about another debate: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113227471530921481
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
'clearing out' seems like a very strong expression of 'control'.
0
General.William.T.Sherman
1 week ago
NEW: The U.S. expects Israel to begin a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could start "immediately." Israel's objective would be to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure near Israeli border communities, according to a senior U.S. official.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
I would think so.
0
General.William.T.Sherman
1 week ago
Entering an area and directing what can be in that area is by definition control lmao
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Is standing in a spot 'establishing control' for some amount of time? Rolling into a village with tanks? Clearing a building?
0
Meow.Zedong
1 week ago
Is removing something by force exerting control?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
We already knew this, but it continues to be all on Trump. Will he humbly leave the last word to his smarter running mate while a woman of colour taunts him? https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1840749508033921121
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
1 - Is there a difference between 'establishing control' and 'occupying'? 2 - How can we interpret intention? When the NYT says that US officials said that Israeli officials said that they did not intend... is that our source of truth?
1
n/a
1 week ago
Would still be enough to resolve to yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1840766733625266517
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Agreed, but it gets blurry from there on, especially when we layer on the political spin.
0
Justifax
1 week ago
raids definitely don't count.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
"intended to establish control" - are we about to argue over intentions?
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
It's pretty simple, my cash on Kamala is what I consider 'safe growth', and I put most of the rest on more high variance plays, in this case mainly on the theory that there will be another debate. All are positions that I regularly move in and out of with the news cycles. I see most EV in the 3+ option, since I see as a distinct possibility that they agree to Fox+other.
1
Shayku
1 week ago
This is why I think 3 debates is undervalued.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
Agreed, but the article makes interesting points, though fully unsourced.
1
n/a
1 week ago
anyone buying 5 shares to comment as often as you is a red herring
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?
Shayku
1 week ago
This aged poorly.
0
1914L
1 month ago
if by other "bigger left wing party" you mean the bloc, you simply dont understand the dynamics. Bloc will NOT support trudeau, although the NDP might continue to support.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Shayku
1 week ago
I wonder if this type of reporting has ever preceded a retreat of the troops. Doubt it.
2
ActDrew
1 week ago
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-28-24/index.html US sees possibility of limited Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon as IDF moves forces to border
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 week ago
This is why I think 3 debates is undervalued.
1
io9000
1 week ago
Ok pretend you have more than 10 points of q. Neither trump nor kamara wants unfriendlies as debate moderators. Unfortunately, the country is so extremely divided that you can’t find an unbiased debate moderator, which is why there will never be more than 1 debate unless both parties believe they have something to gain at the same time (regardless of whether its true). So please buy more shares so i can buy 1 debate cheaper. If its at 60% ill promise to pump 20k more into 1 debate.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 week ago
Grammatically, it could go either way. Logically, there's a slight advantage to the 'announcement' side, because the underlying assumption might have been that past October 15th is too late to announce, whereas the date seems even more arbitrary than it already is if we're talking about the debate taking place.
1
just.some.guy
1 week ago
This is what attorneys call a statement against interest, but my reading is only the announcement's required.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 week ago
Good call.
0
drater
1 week ago
who knows. best guess is the VP debate gets everyone talking about Vance pissing Trump off. And then he agrees to Fox debate to get attention back
Will there be another debate?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
How will watching the VP debate affect his feelings about it?
0
FrgalfrgalCZ
2 weeks ago
Donald and his team knows that another debate would tank his rankings, there is no way he will agree to another debate
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Yep, very confusing. My assumption, as I posted below, is that it's the announcement, but it'll certainly be subject to debate.
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
Another poorly-worded market. Is the October 15 deadline for when the debate will occur, or for the announcement?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
I wonder if watching the VP debate will jiggle his mind.
3
yungretard
2 weeks ago
Averaging more lower bc im having a hard time believing either will want to pass up on a debate (and the variance that comes with it, despite all the current posturing) when the race is projected to be a coin toss. I could be wrong and they could both play it safe but idk, I have a feeling.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Hmm. Nah.
1
io9000
2 weeks ago
Just sell the shares already before you lose even more lol
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4898291-bret-baier-trump-not-harris-debate-holdup-fox-news/
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4898291-bret-baier-trump-not-harris-debate-holdup-fox-news/
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
" 64% Want To See The Two Candidates Debate Again " - That's a green light for the Harris campaign to continue goading.
0
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908
0
Will there be another debate?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Sure, but all 3 debates historically take place between now and the election. Not before.
0
RolloTomssi
2 weeks ago
Don't forget! This would be the 3rd debate.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
That's true, and as long as he doesn't, it's an admission of inferiority.
1
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
No one on the right cares at all. He would look weak walking into a trap yet again.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
That, and his own party. He's looking very weak on this.
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Left Wing rag says Kamala is pressuring Trump??? Quick, buy more 2-3 debates!!!!!
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894831-trump-pressure-second-harris-debate/
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Just the facts.
1
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Historical levels of Cope.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Who cares?
4
io9000
2 weeks ago
You guys are simply dumb gamblers. Weeks ago i said kash patel said trump would do one debate and no one cared to verify or check. Degenerates.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Ok, so you agree that it would be a great show of force for her, but your counterr argument is an ad hominem attack. Got it.
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
You have yet to provide supporting arguments, you're just restating your assertion.
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
And it would be a 'show, not tell' of her stated intention of being a president 'for all Americans'
0
Shayku
2 weeks ago
It would be quite a show of confidence to show up on Fox.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
It would be quite a show of confidence to show up on Fox.
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
I don't see why she wouldn't agree to a Fox debate if there's also a CNN debate to cap things off.
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Same. It would ultimately be fairest if they did ABC, Fox, then CNN without fact check.
0
S-1REQUIRED
2 weeks ago
My theory is Trump is trying to leverage the fact that Harris wants more debates in order to eventually get her to accept the Fox invitation.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Normally, this far out from the election, the first debate would not have occurred yet. In modern history, there was always 2 or 3 debates in October - https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/presidential-campaigns-debates-and-endorsements-0
0
Meow.Zedong
2 weeks ago
Nah bruh. People are voting already. Kamala was offered additional debates in August and she declined. Although she categorically won the debate, she didn’t really resonate with voters on key issues. She didn’t offer specific policy platforms. Mostly emotional platitudes and digs at Donald Trump. She needs another debate more than he does. I’m sure his internal polling shows that. People know Trump. They needed to get to know Harris and she didn’t really deliver. Oh well.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/presidential-campaigns-debates-and-endorsements-0
0
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
It's to late.
0
Chen1996
2 weeks ago
Trump had no issues with the first debate on CNN, will be interesting to see what he says in these upcoming days
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
There's simply no time.
1
n/a
2 weeks ago
Wow the biggest pro multi debate guy lol
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
2 weeks ago
Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
This one is gonna hit home - https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-tops-trump-two-points
0
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Like clockwork, today's polling shows a strong post-debate bounce for Harris. The pressure mounts, and it will continue to get worse for Trump in the next days. I expect the debate negotiations to be known some time between Sep 20th and Sep 25th.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Welp, turns out Nate Silver sees the same polls.
0
n/a
3 weeks ago
The cope is strong with this one.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Because I'm expecting people to get antsy in the coming days, and the price to come down, and I want to get some cash before the downswing so I can buy them back cheaper over the weekend.
2
Pump
3 weeks ago
the pressure mounts, that is why you are offloading your 2 shares while posting bullish comments, gj
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Like clockwork, today's polling shows a strong post-debate bounce for Harris. The pressure mounts, and it will continue to get worse for Trump in the next days. I expect the debate negotiations to be known some time between Sep 20th and Sep 25th.
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Post-debate polling has started coming is and is looking positive for Harris. By the end of the week, he (small) lead should be confirmed, and at that point the pressure will really be on.
2
coolguy69
3 weeks ago
The argument for why there will be another debate: DJT is getting desperate, and if you just look at the calendar, there really aren't any more opportunities to strongly change the narrative. He will get desperate and do a second debate to try to drive up enthusiasm.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
There's no need to bet shame, to each our decisions.
5
n/a
3 weeks ago
Showing conviction with $5 lmao
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Go away.
0
GouValeau
3 weeks ago
Оn this bеt, VоtеХ [votenex.com] hаs dоublе thе liquiditу, аnd diffеrеnt оdds. it sееms tо hаvе а strоng аrbitrаgе орроrtunitу in thеsе mаrkеts
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Normally the first debate would not have happened yet, and there would be 3 to come.
6
Shayku
3 weeks ago
At this price, when they announce one, 3 will get a bigger multiplier bump than 2. Let alone if they announce 2 more at the same time.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
At this price, when they announce one, 3 will get a bigger multiplier bump than 2. Let alone if they announce 2 more at the same time.
3
n/a
3 weeks ago
Three just somehow feels magical.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Trump, the day after your comment: "If I get in the right mood, sure." Yea, Trump says a lot of things, and by now we should all be accustomed to the repetitive pattern of his position changes.
1
just.some.guy
3 weeks ago
Trump: "There will not be another debate." This market: Eh, Trump says a lot of stuff.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Not if people spend the weekend pricing in Trump's backtrack.
0
Will143
3 weeks ago
1 no shares going to be worth 15 c less by Monday.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
And the corresponding goading: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834767575642771837
1
Chen1996
3 weeks ago
Fox News: Trump appears to leave door open for second debate with Harris: 'Maybe if I got in the right mood
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Here's the video: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/trump-appears-leaves-door-open-second-debate-harris-maybe-i-got-right-mood.amp
0
Chen1996
3 weeks ago
He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/trump-appears-leaves-door-open-second-debate-harris-maybe-i-got-right-mood.amp
1
Pump
3 weeks ago
if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
(thanks)
1
Chen1996
3 weeks ago
He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
lol obv
2
Chen1996
3 weeks ago
He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
k
0
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Nothing new, he has flip-flopped many times ahead of the last debate. He'll frame it as a negotiation tactic.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Another - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/2024-debates-donald-trump-kamala-harris
0
Shayku
3 weeks ago
I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
From this article - https://newrepublic.com/post/184702/donald-trump-media-attention-kamala-harris-debate
0
Shayku
3 weeks ago
I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073
0
Pump
3 weeks ago
if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Nothing new, he has flip-flopped many times ahead of the last debate. He'll frame it as a negotiation tactic.
0
Pump
3 weeks ago
if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Every night, he's replaying it in his mind, cringing and imagining what he should have said. He needs a bit more time to process, but he'll want his shot when he feels ready again.
2
Pump
3 weeks ago
if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Posting this in the hopes of getting people to exit so I can get more at a lower price: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834347991286636953
3
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
Well, good EV anyway.
1
n/a
3 weeks ago
Easy money lmao
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
3 weeks ago
The goading continues - https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834333718464389147
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Yea I quickly sold, and then got back in. Exciting.
0
n/a
0 months ago
I'm not saying the movement in this market isn't somewhat understandable, but it's surprising to see how much this market moves based on the meaningless and contradictory "tweets" of someone who repeatedly said he wouldn't do the first debate.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Of course - thank you. I was being snotty, forgot we're not in the chat of the 'main' market.
1
sd2333
0 months ago
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/donald-trump-says-he-wont-do-another-debate-with-kamala-harris-c7d8e428?st=R7YjZm Asked if Trump was in fact ruling out a debate, a spokeswoman said in an email, “You heard the man!”
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
Yea, that scenario makes sense too. It's actually why I think we might see 2 more debates - Fox, then NBC, to balance things out. But of course, who knows.
0
rozi
0 months ago
I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
Doing a repeat of the debate in front of his own crowd would be the last nail in his campaign.
0
rozi
0 months ago
Why would she ever agree to that?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Yea he said that today. As we've seen at the debate, he's as focused as my dog in a pool of squirrels, and Kamala is a squirrel druid.
1
sd2333
0 months ago
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/donald-trump-says-he-wont-do-another-debate-with-kamala-harris-c7d8e428?st=R7YjZm Asked if Trump was in fact ruling out a debate, a spokeswoman said in an email, “You heard the man!”
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
As Chen indicated, the goading begins: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743
2
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
You got out fast.
0
JayZee
0 months ago
Might be a long shot but you never know with Trumps ego
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
The main market has flipped in Kamala's favour. We've had several flippenings in the past, but I believe this one has stuck the longest. It seems very possible that we never see it flip back. The honeymoon may have faded, but at the debate, Kamala's skill and seriousness was affirmed and committed to collective memory. Trump would need a shake-up, of a kind that is nowhere to be seen on the horizon. Can he really afford to leave the debate stage with this performance?
2
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
You bragged.
15
·
Liked by n/a, rozi and 13 others
n/a
0 months ago
what went wrong?
Will there be another debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
As of this writing, this market is markedly cheaper - https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris/3-trump-vs-harris-debates-before-election?tid=1726108953516
3
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
50-Pence = TheGuru?
0
Meow.Zedong
0 months ago
50-Pence and Waynewest buying up lots of Kamala. Whale watching is interesting.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
I expect a second one, and when that's announced, '3' should triple.
2
bfip
0 months ago
fck i am gonna lose some money on this one, please tell me there will be more than one debate. vs Hillary and Biden he also did more than 1.
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
Ouh, are we looking at another battle on the main market?
0
Caligulas.dog
0 months ago
Waynewest is accumulating like crazy
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
And by the way, the wording on the 'number of debates' market is better, and you should adopt standard wording to minimize confusion. Like game rules, or text on Magic cards. Standard vocabulary, standard syntax, etc.
2
Shayku
0 months ago
Rules check: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate hosted by them between July 20, and October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." ... What has to happen between those dates? The announcement, the agreement or the debate? I would assume it's the announcement.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
Rules check: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate hosted by them between July 20, and October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." ... What has to happen between those dates? The announcement, the agreement or the debate? I would assume it's the announcement.
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Exactly.
0
BuckMySalls
0 months ago
His rebuttal is as credible as the 92-8 poll he cites. He just wants to negotiate more favorable terms and once the polls bump her up, he'll become more flexible on the conditions.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Cheers, good luck!
0
Highboard
0 months ago
1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
That's a good point, but I think she's not doing those because she's just not great at them. She's not very personable one on one. But she is great in a more antagonistic context, maybe because of her experience as prosecutor. So my assumption is that she'll want as much of that type of confrontation injected into the campaign as possible.
1
Highboard
0 months ago
1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
Or, would Harris show up to a Fox News debate? At this point I think she might. If she can pull off a similar performance there, it's the final nail.
2
Highboard
0 months ago
1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
I have the opposite take. Trump needs a re-do, Harris campaign has asked for one. This is happening.
0
Highboard
0 months ago
1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
0 months ago
Why?
11
·
Liked by LCBlome, Calby and 8 others
Dzso
0 months ago
Florida and Texas both have to flip, at a minimum, for this to happen.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
As I posted last week, she still needs to secure republican votes, now has the confidence to show up on Fox, and Trump is angling for the next debate to happen there: https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-reacts-abc-news-presidential-debate-performance-says-whether-hes-open-second-harris
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
0 months ago
No, he's angling to do it on Fox News.
0
Wael
0 months ago
"Trump just said on Fox News that he won't participate in another debate unless it's on a fair news network. He claims he's a winner, and she's asking for another debate because she lost."
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
https://x.com/brianefallon/status/1833698318829982118?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1833698318829982118%7Ctwgr%5E5c93222e6fc8d75cc904691559f017a7adff831f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Flive-news%2Fkamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-september-10-2024
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
0 months ago
It's the same rules as the last derivative market, which had a lot of market pumping drama, but no rules drama that I was aware of.
0
Shayku
1 month ago
What drama do you expect? There's not enough money on it right now to warrant rocking the main market.
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
The volume isn't there, at least not yet.
0
n/a
1 month ago
im in for the whale games
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
But they need to do that for over 2 hours.
0
432
1 month ago
they do it on purpose.They simply need to pump harris a bit within a 4h period a day AFTER the debate where the volume is back down so harris will win the bet
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
What drama do you expect? There's not enough money on it right now to warrant rocking the main market.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
This market has a very large potential for serious drama, though they should have expired it during the debate.
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
where do you stand?
2
n/a
1 month ago
some of yall are really going either 1) omg there's no way she can win them all, I multiplied the probabilities and it's less than 5% or 2) it's literally just a georgia market, have you seen the 538 snake graph??
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 month ago
0 debate holders are probably people who have multiple bets and go for high variance, high EV bets.
1
BennyS
1 month ago
0 debate holders are about to become $0 holders
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Whales are only toe-deep though.
0
BlueSky123
1 month ago
Let's do this again on the 11th:
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Are we expecting some boat rocking here? Whales are only toe-deep.
2
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Shayku
1 month ago
No theyre saying 538 will say that.
1
KingAlex
1 month ago
People saying Border Czar Kamala will win are smoking crack. Burdened by the unburdened.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
That was awesome
1
50-Pence
1 month ago
Are you not entertained?
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Watching.
0
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
5 minutes until take off 🚀
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Part of the theory is money laundering, so it would indeed be with other wallets.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
unless they're going to do it with other wallets, the topholders have no liquidity. they lost it all betting on this market.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Take the other side and let's go
0
HaterzLoserz
1 month ago
Now that im out, max chaos please, want to see lawsuits and everything
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
It's only 1.3M to pump Kamala to .50, and it's not like that money goes to a loss. I don't see why it wouldn't be manipulated, personally.
5
CookedAlligator
1 month ago
This time there is too much liquidity to let it happen
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Fake princess.
0
n/a
1 month ago
What is happening Friday
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
CFTC is a US agency.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
Hopefully the CFTC looks into this shit. Very sketchy imho
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Hmm, seems like it was 2003 - https://www.c-span.org/video/?178099-1/democratic-presidential-candidates-debate
0
just.some.guy
1 month ago
You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Notably, Fox News was scheduled to host a Democratic primary debate in 2008, but the debate was canceled due to backlash from Democratic candidates and liberal groups who objected to the network's perceived bias against the Democratic Party.
0
just.some.guy
1 month ago
You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Actually just one for the Dems: Fox News hosted a Democratic primary debate on September 9, 2004, in Baltimore, Maryland.
0
just.some.guy
1 month ago
You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Oh that was the original date? I didn't even think that was on the horizon for anyone. This is about post-10th
1
rozi
1 month ago
I am so happy you're here :)
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
The first presidential debate of the 2020 election cycle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News. Fox also hosted many primary debates, for both parties.
0
rozi
1 month ago
Never in history was there a presidential debate on Fox. If she does poorly, Trump will agree to a debate in the "fake news" media to hit her again. If she does well, there will be too much too risk for her to go to Fox News. It ain't happening 😘😉
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
Why on the 4th?
0
0xNabs
1 month ago
Getting ready for the bottom price on this one on the 4th and load up - chances are she will need more debates after her polls start tanking…!
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.
1
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
1 month ago
She'll want to increase her visibility with Republicans
0
just.some.guy
1 month ago
And you expect she'd choose Fox News? Would Trump ever do a debate hosted by MSNBC? Ever wonder why that is?
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
Ah you're right, I was looking at the polls forecast
0
Greta-Tunafish
1 month ago
Yes, I have also subscribed. How high is harris' current probability of winning in Arizona? ;)
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
47.6 vs 47.2
0
Greta-Tunafish
1 month ago
Yes, I have also subscribed. How high is harris' current probability of winning in Arizona? ;)
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
You must not be subscribed. I'm looking at the table now.
0
Greta-Tunafish
1 month ago
this is a lie, Harris leads only in WI and MI. Just sell your bags, they will drop even further
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
As of this writing, Nate Silver has Harris leading each of those states.
0
Greta-Tunafish
1 month ago
No power to alcohol kids, otherwise you'll end up like Grandpa Shayku.
Georgia Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
1 month ago
If you're going to bet Dem in Georgia, this market is much better value for you: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state?tid=1724934789659
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Shayku
1 month ago
Probably, but at 4%, the EV is on 3.
0
Darth-Jar-Jar
1 month ago
One of the typical 3 debates already happened with Biden and Trump. This market is between Harris and Trump only. It’s either 0, 1, or 2.
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Shayku
1 month ago
What's weird is calling your own blog post 'excellent'.
7
1 month ago
Actually, that's no true. From this excellent blog post: "from a broader market perspecitve: imagine Kamala has a 52% chance to win, but the odds don’t move much, so you can estimate that one day before the election the probability of her winning will still be 52% with a 70% probability. Then one market should have 52%, and the other 70%." https://polymarketblogger.wordpress.com/home/food-for-thought/why-it-makes-sense-for-the-polymarket-to-have-different-odds-for-options/
Arizona Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
1 month ago
Nate Silver has Harris in the lead.
0
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Shayku
1 month ago
This market is still underpriced. It's basically a Georgia market right now.
2
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Perhaps, but in the situation they now find themselves in, it would seem much more consistent to resolve as 'Yes'. If not they'd have to go back and modify other markets.
0
Bigdog666
1 month ago
PolyMarket jumped the gun. And overplayed their hand without understanding the politcal landscape of US Politics and Campaign strategies that supersede this basic ass move they played.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Shayku
1 month ago
We went through this with Bernie not endorsing Harris. He said he would work to get people to vote for her, but didn't use the word 'endorse' so it resolved to 'No'. This seems to be the same.
11
·
Liked by EmpirePend..., LMNOP and 9 others
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
Other markets on here consider RFK to have dropped out. How would PM resolve the inconsistency?
3
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Shayku
1 month ago
You can't calculate expected value without including 'the probability of the outcome'
1
Morgan101
1 month ago
You have gambled $7k for a maximum upside of $360. Betting the same amount the opposite way has a potential payout of $138k. No matter what you think about the probability of the outcome here - which has the highest expected value?
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
1 month ago
Well that aged poorly.
1
0x688514D28AE78B3A39573802a00Aa3b32e1e2602-1722977934152
2 months ago
GA ain’t in play
Nevada Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
2 months ago
Yea, good to observe the behaviour of the markets
0
AmericansCantBetHere
2 months ago
given that DNC is up in Nevada now per the market, my guess is simply market delays
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Shayku
2 months ago
I disagree, she needs to speak to a more unlikely crowd. She can set some conditions like Trump did for his Biden debate on CNN. She won't have any trouble with Trump, he's very old and slow.
4
diddy
2 months ago
I don't think voting here YES is the right choice. It should be ±15. Kamala would destroy her presidential bid by just appearing on Fox. She's at an extreme disadvantage. Right now she's on a lead on pools. Out of all presidential bids, historically, why would she be the one to accept this roast bid.
Nevada Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
2 months ago
Polls show him down - including Nate Silver's model
2
0xc82CDDbfD073be01AE8DF2968827aa82269B4c85-1717120400943
2 months ago
Trumps plan for no tax on tips, GOP Governor cleaning up voter rolls, and the polls show Trump up big.
Nevada Presidential Election Winner
Shayku
2 months ago
Why does this market disagree with the polling and history?
0
Harris vs. Trump: Who will raise more each month?
Shayku
2 months ago
Oh, that youtube video of a guy running around a suburb? Yea ok.
1
Shayku
2 months ago
Like what, for example?
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
Shayku
2 months ago
Tie in the house?
0
fatal
2 months ago
who is others?
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
Shayku
2 months ago
Really, they have to crowdfund? Poor Americans, they don't trust each other to form a functioning government.
0
0xCb9cF4773A232Ac612E656dF7733e659E1eEf515-1722999050018
2 months ago
Better than American athletes who have to crowdfund online... US govt is such a disgrace, can't even support their own athletes...
Harris vs. Trump: Who will raise more each month?
Shayku
2 months ago
Like what, for example?
3
0x10Efaa649117eBfD76C98F93E9381A4D2ab62FEC-1721606582418
2 months ago
Easy. Cant compete with corrupt dem fundraising tactics
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Unity ticket.
1
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Waltz is the progressive choice. Kamala wants to shrug off that label.
0
scattering
2 months ago
NGL, I wonder what assumptions of mine were wrong if I should lose tomorrow
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Shapiro is the hedge, keeps me even. Pete is the play, the others are cheap upside.
0
Shayku
2 months ago
Unlikely, but best EV by far.
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
The things that have happened are still factors.
0
n/a
2 months ago
Kamala hasn’t picked anybody, which is why she’s doing interviews with each of the candidates today. Anyone saying “it’s already X person” is an idiot. Anything can happen right now.
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Unlikely, but best EV by far.
1
n/a
2 months ago
The buttigieg yes people are even more retarded than the shapiro yes people
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
The one with the most name ID, favorability and executive experience.
0
Socialise
2 months ago
Who
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
That's what flipped me over. Pelosi knows what's up, and Kamala needs a compass.
0
Gamerinblue
2 months ago
Pelosi supporting Walz is basically Pelosi's way of telling Kamala, "Don't go with Shapiro."
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
If that's the MAGA attack on Buttigieg, she should pick him yesterday.
0
Shayku
2 months ago
Alright fam, everybody ready for tomorrow's pump??
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Alright fam, everybody ready for tomorrow's pump??
0
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Philly mayor? The one that posted a video that included Shapiro as VP?
0
GreenBeanEater
2 months ago
Walz endorsements: UAW, Biden, Pelosi, House Dem caucus, teachers’ unions | Shapiro endorsements: Biden, Philly mayor
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
My issue with Waltz is he's the progressive choice, and Harris wants to get away from that label.
2
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
Still on discount :)
0
Yehudi
2 months ago
Thanks for the massive Buttigieg discount there. I think I am ready now; see you tomorrow.
Democratic VP nominee?
Shayku
2 months ago
You might be right, but it could be that the controversies are being floated to gauge the reaction and how they might deal with it, which would demonstrate the seriousness of their consideration.