How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but a 0.3% return over 18 days is about a 6.26% annual return.

2

first54

1 year ago

It is impossible to cut interest rates more than 6 times.

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Shayku

1 year ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes." If DOGE is not officially created by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

0

Flammergod

1 year ago

What happens if he never gets officially head of the department and just a consulatant or so?

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Shayku

1 year ago

Nomura is in the minority.

0

beakman

1 year ago

Stop In Dec https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nomura-expects-fed-pause-rate-cut-cycle-december-2024-11-18/

Trudeau out in 2024?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2024-10-30/leadership-du-plc/une-autre-rencontre-de-caucus-sous-le-signe-de-la-contestation.php

0

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Maga crowd.

0

MaxShorter

1 year ago

I swear polymarket users are not very smart, republican sweep is way too overpriced

Trudeau out in 2024?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's on - https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/822591/yves-francois-blanchet-bloc-quebecois-ultimatum-gouvernement-trudeau

0

Kalypsio

1 year ago

If you voted yes to this, you know nothing of the Canadian élection system

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea but we're so firmly in a 50-50 world for the President that we effectively inhabit that 5% band. Unless turnout is lopsided, it'll be down to split ticket voters.

0

AranyakaX

1 year ago

RRD just shouldn't be 1/3 of the value of RRR as the House is more or less a coin toss. 15 c is s bargain.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

So the opposite of what the polls say.

5

Eer

1 year ago

D Prez, D Senate, R House

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Seems like it should be more like RRR-35, DRD-25, RRD-25, DRR-10, DDD-5

0

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

1 year ago

The more likely Trump is to win, the more RRD and RRR becomes a 50/50

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but not at that price.

1

poopoopeepee

1 year ago

sweep

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Oh. Yea, they're very related, you can't calculate it like that.

0

Josss

1 year ago

If we use the betting markets' probabilities, Republican sweep is at 27% although these things obviously aren't independent of one another.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

What are you talking about?

0

Josss

1 year ago

If we use the betting markets' probabilities, Republican sweep is at 27% although these things obviously aren't independent of one another.

Who will win white women?

Shayku

1 year ago

We speak like that of every demo.

2

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

Nobody "wins" white women. White women are not some object to be "won".

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

Shayku

1 year ago

2, they did 50bps in October, which was seen as somewhat of an aggressive start.

0

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

1 year ago

So, how many has been so far?

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed. It had been suppressed by a bot filling all 15c buys, and now features a huge wall there instead. I have no idea why this is happening.

2

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

1 year ago

RRD has no business being this cheap

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but in such an unusually tight race, split tickets will have an unusually high impact.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

This market is weird. There's 44% on D pres, when the main market has it at 40%. And the likeliest option according to the polls is RRD, which here sits at 15%.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

This market is weird. There's 44% on D pres, when the main market has it at 40%. And the likeliest option according to the polls is RRD, which here sits at 15%.

2

Who will win white women?

Shayku

1 year ago

He leads them by just one point now. Turnout will be important.

1

Ghost-of-Tsushima

1 year ago

White female voters have been consistently voting Republican since 1952. Except for Clinton and Johnson. So is Trump undervalued maybe?

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed. There's a bot filling all 15c orders.

0

QuteAnon

1 year ago

How is R Prez R Senate D House so cheap?

Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Haha yea man, the market seems to have found its bearings since then. If anything I could have picked up then and sold now, but anyway I was also in the US on travel and unable to trade, it's all good. Can't get 'em all!

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Between 70 and 85 for Harris? Interesting. Since the main market predicts a Trump victory, is this MAGA assuming polling bias? Assuming Nate Silver bias?

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Some state level polls looking slightly Trumpy: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1846585143709872560

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea she's getting some great national polls today. But I think the state level polls are more important in determining how that national level support might translate into the electoral college. Hopefully we get some of those state level polls today, or maybe the national polls include them, but our sources didn't publish that part. Also, Nate just tweeted "In general, short the trend and long the level, people chronically underrate mean reversion." - the mean, if you look at his graph, is a perfect 50-50. So following that logic, we should expect a lot of flipping, not based on the past 2-3 weeks, but based on the idea that future trends will revolve around the 50-50 mean that we've seen since Harris entered.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea she's getting some great national polls today. But I think the state level polls are more important in determining how that national level support might translate into the electoral college. Hopefully we get some of those state level polls today, or maybe the national polls include them, but our sources didn't publish that part. Also, Nate just tweeted "In general, short the trend and long the level, people chronically underrate mean reversion." - the mean, if you look at his graph, is a perfect 50-50. So following that logic, we should expect a lot of flipping, not based on the past 2-3 weeks, but based on the idea that future trends will revolve around the 50-50 mean that we've seen since Harris entered.

0

Will143

1 year ago

Marist H +5

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea I expect it tomorrow, but even if she picks up, the gravity to 50-50 will do it's work at some point.

0

Kalags

1 year ago

Shayky, I guess its never too late to change sides.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Haha of course not! Best of luck to you.

1

Kalags

1 year ago

Shayky, I guess its never too late to change sides.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

@Will134 yea I've thought about it, and given the 50-50 clause, I think the other market should actually be higher for Trump.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Compare with this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin?tid=1728701803074 -- Right now they're close to equal at 70-30, but this one is strictly more likely to happen. I think that other one is priced correctly.

Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

Shayku

1 year ago

I think he's saying it should be valued higher for Trump because in addition to being likely to flip, you're likely to get 50% if it doesn't.

0

PolarOpposite

1 year ago

Remember that Trump was 65% before the debate in Nates model. And harris has never had over 60%. You are way overastimating the probability that this will 50-50, and if it will its still a 70% return back from my investment. You see any negatives for the 50-50 :D?

Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, it's the win probability here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

1

Jagonasch

1 year ago

What exactly is the resolution source for this? Cant find a chart specifically for "probability of winning the Electoral College"

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

@Will143 That's true, but more importantly, the 50-50 clause means you might get some money back if you lose. Now I'm conflicted about how they should be priced, I'll have to think about it.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Compare with this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin?tid=1728701803074 -- Right now they're close to equal at 70-30, but this one is strictly more likely to happen. I think that other one is priced correctly.

Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

Shayku

1 year ago

If he doesn't flip her it'll be a slow crawl back for me, but there's a lot of time. I'm also pro-Kamala by the way, but the race is so tight, and I don't believe Nate's model is biased, despite what the cynics say.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

The other market is better - I just picked up a few more '66 yes flip' and they're more likely than this one.

Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

Shayku

1 year ago

The other market is better - I just picked up a few more '66 yes flip' and they're more likely than this one.

0

Kalags

1 year ago

Bullish on my girl kamala! Shayky wann bet here? I know that you might be too exposed to the resolution of these markets, but I have seious offer @ 22 yes or 78 no. Tell me if you think theres a fairer prize and ill change my order.

Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Between 70 and 85 for Harris? Interesting. Since the main market predicts a Trump victory, is this MAGA assuming polling bias? Assuming Nate Silver bias?

1

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Compare with this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin?tid=1728701803074 -- Right now they're close to equal at 70-30, but this one is strictly more likely to happen. I think that other one is priced correctly.

0

Kalags

1 year ago

I think we have created good odds with Shayky on the order book for both sides, and accurately priced the market.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Honestly I would put it at 80-85, but I'm already over-exposed, and at a good price. Now the worst part: waiting.

0

Kalags

1 year ago

I think we have created good odds with Shayky on the order book for both sides, and accurately priced the market.

Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?

Shayku

1 year ago

Mhhhh, seems like arbitrage is certainly possible.

0

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

A tie is what is expected. It's anything from 60-40 to 40-60, and includes many potential flips.

0

Firedigger

1 year ago

Anyone's game now, but it is still possible that Harris will hold a tie till the elections, and 28 are not bad odds for that.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

If an UMA fight starts on that basis, I'm throwing my computer out the window.

0

0xFEF075E1a7E32BFB916d6c23e661348225d48A69-1728521672331

1 year ago

The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

And a few paragraphs before: "Still, polling movement is more likely to be “real” after surprises like the James Comey letter reopening an investigation into Clinton’s email server in October 2016. And the same is true after the set pieces of the campaign: debates, conventions, VP picks and candidates wrapping up their nominations. In fact, the model accounts for this latter group of circumstances, which we call “landmark events”: our polling averages are designed to be more aggressive after one of them occurs."

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Hello. This one should be a fun ride.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

"Lastly, the model is designed to be more aggressive toward the very end of the race. But by this I mean specifically the last week or week-and-a-half: four weeks out is a little too soon."

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Hello. This one should be a fun ride.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

On the last point? He says so in his last post:

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Hello. This one should be a fun ride.

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Nah. There's a good chance for a flip in the next days, and even if Kamala picks up, there are a lot of news cycles to go, the race is tight, and Nate's model only gets more aggressive as the final date approaches.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Hello. This one should be a fun ride.

U.S. recession before May 2025?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why are you on 'yes' then?

0

ThePolymath

1 year ago

Suckers bet. It could be a year after any recession. NBER declared that the United States entered a recession in December 2007 - They announced it December 1, 2008.

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

lol

0

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Shhhh the Governor is speaking

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

The rules are quite clear on this one.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

This market sounds like UMA hell

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

'The northern eyewall spreading ashore' is not landfall as per the definitions linked in the rules.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.

1

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

source?

1

ssha5140

1 year ago

recon into storm showing peak flight winds of 90kt. significant decrease. now if they'll report it in time...

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

It can't be 'confirmed' if it hasn't made landfall.

2

horatio

1 year ago

CAT 3 CONFIRMED

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

I hope not. Domer's on 4.

0

090x

1 year ago

i think that this market will be UMA market in the end

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

No this storm is a liberal lie built to make us believe in climate change so that we'll put our lives in the hands of the state and give up our toddlers' freedom to play with guns.

3

rickleshit

1 year ago

wow. as a meteorologist i'm straight up going to tell you that you are retarded.

Milton landfall at what category?

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN predicts landfall as 3. Their incentive is to exaggerate upwards, not downwards.

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.forexlive.com/news/unconfirmed-reports-of-explosions-in-iran-isfahan-nuke-site-20241007/

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

It was deleted

0

Bigiorn

1 year ago

https://x.com/NoMrOnlyLovejoy/status/1843431465012605249

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

You're being disingenuous. The fact is that the resolution system is fundamentally flawed, in a way that that is dissonant with Poly's 'promise' and its public facing marketing of being the future of news. That kind of misalignment is not sustainable. You can blame the users for mass hysteria, but this is just one occurence, and it will keep happening as long as Poly remains dependent on a resolution system that is ripe for corruption.

2

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

the 2 whales that decide everything haven't revealed yet

0

BaruchAsulin

1 year ago

Dose yes stand a chance ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

This is why PM should fork UMA into a version where the total shares per person is capped.

0

DFK

1 year ago

so basically, what everybody seems to agree upon, is that it can be 90% going one way, and boom just like that it could reverse because 1 or 2 people have more voting rights than everybody else put together? Am I getting this right?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

aunt is right, this is going yes

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I can't believe I have to say this, but intent precedes action.

1

mr.ozi

1 year ago

It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Does it also feature 2 previous markets, a risk to UMA reputation, a sus Domer figure and a debate on the word 'commence'? If so, I'm in.

4

SylvesterStallone

1 year ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea it could also be called Domer vs Polymarket.

0

crow

1 year ago

this market should be called Guess if the uma whales will vote yes or no

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I believe in Poly.

1

elies

1 year ago

I believe in domer

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Oh STFU.

6

SylvesterStallone

1 year ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Clearly.

2

elies

1 year ago

I believe in domer

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

When the dealer leaves with your cash and never comes back, you don't realize his intentions until you've sat around for a while.

1

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

YOu could have only voted yes, if you think the invasion did happen or p4 if you think theres not enough evidence yet.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Make sure this is in the ER

0

Carlossss

1 year ago

https://www.un.org/en/lebanon-crisis-un-launches-426-million-aid-appeal-%E2%80%98limited%E2%80%99-israeli-ground-incursion-underway

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's a rumour. I don't want to compromise sources, even if it means sounding less credible.

0

ncap

1 year ago

from where the news with UMA and PM?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Fork UMA, prevent whales in the voting system.

1

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

who should it rely on instead?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Rumor has it Poly is evaluating its dependence on UMA. As the platform takes off, it can't afford to rely on any dubious partners.

2

ncap

1 year ago

just wait for the result, maybe UMA decides otherwise...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I would advise all No holders to go read the ER. The evidence is overwhelming on all fronts. There's still time for you to flip. You'll be greeted with food and shelter.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Go read the evidence. It's overwhelming on all points. You still have time to flip.

1

LangdonBonaparte

1 year ago

In the history books the start of invasions are always marked as when large conventional forces enter the territory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq#Preceding_special_forces_mission_in_al-Qa'im Small raids by special forces never count towards that. There were no clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in September ET time and there were never any large conventional forces in Lebanon in September ET time.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

We see now that it was the commencement of the invasion. The same way one looks back on their first job as the commencement of a career.

0

Tenebrus7

1 year ago

If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Does that make No holders the smallest circlejerkers?

2

NIGGA

1 year ago

Yes holders are the largest circlejerkers

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

'No' shift ending soon, wherever they are.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I guess he looked the gift horse in the mouth.

5

aldynspeedruns

1 year ago

ur share count is going in the wrong direction

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Car, you're almost there. Be unburdened by what has been.

4

Car

1 year ago

its always the same story

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Well you're partly on Yes, aren't you?

2

Car

1 year ago

get my name out of your mouth. I am not on the YES side and dont support a YES resolution.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Anyone that wants to help truth prevail here whatever way they believe that truth to be add astandforanime on Discord and they'll give you an unbiased rundown on how to make your voice heard, good luck everyone!

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Do it, Yes army - this is legit.

2

RememberAmalek

1 year ago

Well the previous TWO Discord users had no idea what's at stake and poor communication skills so lets try this again, anyone that wants to help truth prevail here whatever way they believe that truth to be add astandforanime on Discord and they'll give you an unbiased rundown on how to make your voice heard, good luck everyone!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Uhh... you're reading the tea leaves upside down.

0

dancer

1 year ago

if this isn't resolved to a Yes, Polymarket and UMA's reputation will be in the DIRT, like DECRAPP!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sup cat! Clearly a fake cat, but ok. I won't mis-species you.

1

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

@Shayku - Real cat

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's why we rely on media consensus

9

Le-King

1 year ago

The truth is that no one fucking knows what happened except for the boys who were actually there, on the ground from September 30th through October 2nd

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Cash about to flood into Yes here.

2

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

We're headed towards a market consensus here too, and the Yes gains from Nov haven't flooded in yet.

5

McLarry

1 year ago

Currently, Y is trading significantly higher than N. Y was traded at nearly 90 cents on September 30/October 1. It was only UMA that caused the price drop. This means that, in addition to the media consensus, there was also a market consensus. And now UMA is supposed to override this market and media consensus? That cannot be right

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

He wasn't claimed the Nov market yet...

2

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I didn't see this argument proposed, might've missed it, but it's pretty good.

2

thismaysoundcornybutloveistheanswer

1 year ago

Looking closely at the chart will reveal the Yes value jumped over 75c at 30th of September

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Glad to have you aboard.

5

HaterzLoserz

1 year ago

Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

On the resolution thread, it's one post per person

0

denizz

1 year ago

Maybe someone could post this to the discord for me -- my account is too new to post.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not terrible points, but the yes cases are better

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Here's an excerpt:

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Crucially, UMA voted that (1) at the time of the first proposal for this market, proposed 2 hours before the deadline, there was not yet an invasion in Lebanon, and (2) at the time of the first proposal for the November invasion market, proposed 10 hours into October ET, there had also not yet been an invasion in Lebanon according to reporting. It is impossible to say that the invasion had not begun at 10 AM ET on October 1st, yet it had begun by 11:59 PM ET on September 30th. Other people have already posted ample evidence including statements by the UN, the USA, the Israeli army, and the Lebanese army that the invasion had not begun by 11:59 PM on September 30th, and instead, there were only several tactical raids going on at that time. It is also clear now that these raids have been ongoing for the past year (See Wall Street Journal article:

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Here's an excerpt:

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Here's an excerpt:

0

Phrank

1 year ago

How are they defending NO in the discord?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

So why is this at 45c?

0

abdendriel

1 year ago

November market unanimously voted it was an invasion already

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Lottery ticket

0

DFK

1 year ago

But nobody voted NO so far (obviously). What I don't understand is why people are holding NO shares. That just blows my mind. Why would anyone hold NO shares. What am I missing.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1291759526005178418

0

PolyRig-Fried

1 year ago

“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Even UN and IDF backs up the “commencement of the operation” https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1841045490802053520 and https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776 - NO holders are in complete denial. Futhermore, the "commenced military offensive" has started "to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Again backed up by the UN and IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 and https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514 How do you raid residential homes and seize weapons, if you can't exert at least some control on the ground?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not a bad point.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

If it is P4, Polymarkt must intervene. Perhaps that would even be bullish for September, because then they would have to make a decision there as well

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

100%. And just that fact makes it likely that Poly will want to break away from UMA, turning the UMA stakeholders into bag holders.

1

tiekoo

1 year ago

This market is no longer events betting but "how the UMA holders vote" betting.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

The credibility of UMA is starting to be in doubt, which affects its value.

0

EastBoat

1 year ago

In November, Uma Whale attempted to make it P4. This is why I say current uma holders are dishonest.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

When the November market hits, this will spike hard. Get your shares while they're cheap!

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I mean, the other Yes case is to consider the preceding raids as part of the broader invasion offensive.

1

n/a

1 year ago

Is this literally going to come down to a time zone dispute?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

'It won't be the timezone' *makes the timezone argument*

1

TheGoober

1 year ago

It won't be about the time zone. The invasion was announced at 2 AM October 1st by the IDF, which places the starting time at 7 PM EDT September 30th.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Is this literally going to come down to a time zone dispute?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Early morning in Israel is the previous day EST. This seals it.

2

Donkov

1 year ago

Straight from the UN “Israel’s latest breach of international law – a ground invasion in violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and Security Council resolution 1701 – will only add to this mounting toll of death and displacement,” https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/lebanon-un-experts-deplore-israels-increasing-disregard-international-law

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea, when this closes yes, September will pop

0

Nancy.Pelosi

1 year ago

Yes holders in this market would behoove themselves to look at the September market

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Media consensus is overwhelming.

0

denizz

1 year ago

Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per the Institute for the Study of War. There is no consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions. This market **cannot resolve to yes at this time**, since intent to establish control of Lebanese territory has not been shown by consensus of reporting.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1842221701989273837

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

The market is at 95%, it will resolve Yes.

3

Tenebrus7

1 year ago

If it resolves to Yes maybe, if it resolves to: too early at the time of proposal will go to Zero here. The November market can then resolve to YES later still

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

It should spike, since it will confirm a foundational argument for Yes.

0

Scoobs

1 year ago

When the November market resolves Yes later today, What will that mean for this market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

This is definitely true, but UMA holders also have an incentive to keep UMA credible.

0

EastBoat

1 year ago

Crazy. This market is not discussing facts. It's about whether someone will buy a large amount of uma tokens, around 20 million, and that backs up the facts.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Waiting to see if it goes down, and managing risk of ruin.

3

puremichigan23

1 year ago

why not lift the 39s then

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Presence on Sep 30 has been established. Control after Sep has been established. This hinges on whether the sep 30 raids can be considered as part of an offensive intended to establish control.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Add to the arguments above that many major outlets use the word 'invasion' in the headline - BBC, Vox, LA Times and many more.

4

Anon5215

1 year ago

I don't disagree that they commenced a military offensive on the night of September 30, but is it truly intended to establish control over any portion of the country? It sounds to me that they are going in to knock out certain infrastructures as opposed to establish control. Please prove me wrong if you have evidence

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Headlines say invasion, September 'enters' market closed 'yes', in retrospect that was clearly a 'commencement'.

3

Anon5215

1 year ago

Yes holders, what are the biggest sources you have for believing yes? I hold no position yet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Watch the Yes price on the September market skyrocket when this gets resolved to yes.

0

Smashtouille

1 year ago

watch the no price skyrocket when the september get resolved to no

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I think the value of your position will go x2 or x3 very quickly.

0

io9000

1 year ago

I am extremely scared to lose money

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

It'll keep going, you should get more

0

io9000

1 year ago

Is that why my shares are going down

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Horrible news cycle for Trump. The big lie is resurfacing, just as Vance's damning non-answer plays on a loop, alongside an otherwise stellar performance where he looked more presidential than Trump in every way.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not sure, but they're revealing over 24h. 5% revealed now.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yes.

1

iwantam4

1 year ago

So, in this system, the rich get richer cuz they are rich and buy the truth?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed

1

aenews2

1 year ago

97.6% P2 Yes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but this ruling is not based on truth.

1

3potatoes

1 year ago

But ground troops did not enter…

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

with 0.1% tokens revealed

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Yes is now leading by a tiny margin

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yes is now leading by a tiny margin

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/719352532354465833

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

P4 is leading but not all votes are in

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

The UMA system is about to be revealed as totally flawed at best.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Man, the UMA P4-P1 case looks REALLY good: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1290373714025906197

3

Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

Shayku

1 year ago

Hello. This one should be a fun ride.

2

bugra1

1 year ago

hello

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

If you read it, start from the top

3

Shayku

1 year ago

Man, the UMA P4-P1 case looks REALLY good: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1290373714025906197

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Vance looked really good on that stage. Maybe he should be president.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Do you have evidence that UMA is not impartial?

0

dav1

1 year ago

How do we get Polymarket to do an ''emergency resolve'' of this market instead of letting 2 whales decide UMA?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ah yea, I saw that. That's their current line, same as Trump saying he'd love to debate 2-3 times, but the moderators are unfair. I won't say it means he'll debate, but it's in line with the theory that they're negotiating their way there.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

This.

1

PolymaREKT

1 year ago

Join UMA discord that’s where you opinion really matters

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

When did the November market resolve?

0

BuckMySalls

1 year ago

this is simple. all whales and sharp bettors are on the side where an equivalent market already resolved yes, all the community takeover buyers are on the other side and pumping their shares before the expiry date. in the next few hours, they will need to start taking profits or let the shares go to zero because thats how this game works.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not quite, they could argue 'media consensus'.

0

zynyz

1 year ago

This 1 article settles the market 100%: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again, because I don't see the tweet. Link?

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Did these make it into the UMA discussion?

0

Kf0106

1 year ago

Here are official sources that indicate Israeli troops did not enter Lebanon before September 30, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET: 1. Times of Israel: Reports confirmed that while there were rumors and preparations for a ground operation, no actual troop entry was reported before the end of September 30. Link to Times of Israel article . 2. Reuters: While airstrikes intensified, no Israeli troops had officially crossed into Lebanon by the end of September 30, 2024. Link to Reuters coverage. These sources confirm that the ground incursion did not begin until after the specified deadline.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Cool. Where do you see this? Which UMA channel?

0

NotJustKen

1 year ago

UMA mod : To follow up on one of the points: time of assertion is important Only information available BEFORE someone proposes an outcome is to be considered Unless polymarket clarifies. (ITS HAPPENING GUYS)

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ya found it

0

Phat.

1 year ago

I see the same was about to clip another 1k

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Do you have a link to it?

0

ANONYMOUS.

1 year ago

LFG boys UMA chat is looking like a NO to me...

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

No credible news source reports it as a fact, they all say 'Israel say'. No frontline reports corroborate Israel's claims.

2

Hugor21

1 year ago

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/has-israel-launched-a-ground-operation-into-lebanon both parties say otherwise, but we have not seen any actual evidence of israel in libanon.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

Can you provide credible reporting? Other than 'Israel says'? Because Hezbollah says otherwise, and I don't make the rules.

0

TimeQuestion

1 year ago

Classic case of the losing side dominating the comments and wasting their time on a losing fight.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

When someone does post about it, share it here so we can all amplify. And make the post rational and demonstrative for better effect.

1

Phat.

1 year ago

Its a No but we they going to Rig it ... I would go public with this on X because where else someone will listen to you

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

I've been looking for it, but all reporting says 'Israel says' while Hezbollah denies. I'd love to see the proof from the 'Yes' camp.

0

yevh97

1 year ago

Yes or No? Any proofs?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

"official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council" ...OR

2

Hamurabi

1 year ago

Gonna be a wild ride https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1841056432612884944?t=IYVW3HD-HV3pwZVjCJYfmw&s=19

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

yea the EV of the 'No' positon on that market actually looks good.

1

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

This is very clearly no. Please buy more.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Correct

0

Shayku

1 year ago

No one has submitted yet.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822764

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Exactly. The invasion is a broadening.

0

Prophet👻

1 year ago

In some ways, the invasion is viewed as a broadening of a large number of very short nightly special forces missions into southern Lebanon, which have been going on for an extended period. - jpost,

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

I guess they have defacto control over the area then.

2

Prophet👻

1 year ago

IDF invasion of southern Lebanon meets no Hezbollah resistance The invasion is expected to end within weeks, and should consist of several short special forces missions into southern Lebanon. - jpost.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

No one has submitted yet.

0

KKAJ

1 year ago

https://x.com/suppressednws/status/1841097247687147692?s=46 How can Russia demand this and this market not being resolved yet?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Right on cue. He's just positioning to get the conditions he wants.

2

avadvsdfdsf

1 year ago

https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1840904696057237578 trump: I would love to have 2 or 3 more debates ... (notice the change in tone from no more debate)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep. Asking for a village to be evacuated and rolling tanks into it = control

5

Car

1 year ago

A message to Y holders: Israeli troops last fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, in a war that ended inconclusively after several weeks of fighting. Israeli officials anonymously told CNN that the offensive does not aim for a "long-term occupation." It should therefore not be a repeat of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. It was intended to create a buffer against attacks.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

We're not looking for 'occupation' here, just 'intention to establish control over any portion of Lebanon'.

7

Car

1 year ago

A message to Y holders: Israeli troops last fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, in a war that ended inconclusively after several weeks of fighting. Israeli officials anonymously told CNN that the offensive does not aim for a "long-term occupation." It should therefore not be a repeat of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. It was intended to create a buffer against attacks.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

There is nothing about 'occupying'.

1

n/a

1 year ago

There are two different markets for a reason: One for entering and fighting in lebanon, and one for controlling and occupying. But Ig we'll see.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I don't see how my comment influenced Trump's choice. I'm pointing out that he looks weak, like he rarely has before. Trump hates projecting weakness.

0

io9000

1 year ago

He wont give vance the last wordt because he will be live commenting on the debate. What a genius move now he doesn’t have to care about another debate: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113227471530921481

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

lol what a weakling

1

io9000

1 year ago

He wont give vance the last wordt because he will be live commenting on the debate. What a genius move now he doesn’t have to care about another debate: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113227471530921481

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

'clearing out' seems like a very strong expression of 'control'.

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

NEW: The U.S. expects Israel to begin a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could start "immediately." Israel's objective would be to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure near Israeli border communities, according to a senior U.S. official.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

I would think so.

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

Entering an area and directing what can be in that area is by definition control lmao

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Is standing in a spot 'establishing control' for some amount of time? Rolling into a village with tanks? Clearing a building?

0

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Is removing something by force exerting control?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

We already knew this, but it continues to be all on Trump. Will he humbly leave the last word to his smarter running mate while a woman of colour taunts him? https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1840749508033921121

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

1 - Is there a difference between 'establishing control' and 'occupying'? 2 - How can we interpret intention? When the NYT says that US officials said that Israeli officials said that they did not intend... is that our source of truth?

1

Donkov

1 year ago

Would still be enough to resolve to yes

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1840766733625266517

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed, but it gets blurry from there on, especially when we layer on the political spin.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

raids definitely don't count.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

"intended to establish control" - are we about to argue over intentions?

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's pretty simple, my cash on Kamala is what I consider 'safe growth', and I put most of the rest on more high variance plays, in this case mainly on the theory that there will be another debate. All are positions that I regularly move in and out of with the news cycles. I see most EV in the 3+ option, since I see as a distinct possibility that they agree to Fox+other.

1

Shayku

1 year ago

This is why I think 3 debates is undervalued.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed, but the article makes interesting points, though fully unsourced.

1

nicekitty

1 year ago

anyone buying 5 shares to comment as often as you is a red herring

Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?

Shayku

1 year ago

This aged poorly.

0

1914L

1 year ago

if by other "bigger left wing party" you mean the bloc, you simply dont understand the dynamics. Bloc will NOT support trudeau, although the NDP might continue to support.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Shayku

1 year ago

I wonder if this type of reporting has ever preceded a retreat of the troops. Doubt it.

2

ActDrew

1 year ago

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-28-24/index.html US sees possibility of limited Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon as IDF moves forces to border

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

This is why I think 3 debates is undervalued.

1

io9000

1 year ago

Ok pretend you have more than 10 points of q. Neither trump nor kamara wants unfriendlies as debate moderators. Unfortunately, the country is so extremely divided that you can’t find an unbiased debate moderator, which is why there will never be more than 1 debate unless both parties believe they have something to gain at the same time (regardless of whether its true). So please buy more shares so i can buy 1 debate cheaper. If its at 60% ill promise to pump 20k more into 1 debate.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Grammatically, it could go either way. Logically, there's a slight advantage to the 'announcement' side, because the underlying assumption might have been that past October 15th is too late to announce, whereas the date seems even more arbitrary than it already is if we're talking about the debate taking place.

1

just.some.guy

1 year ago

This is what attorneys call a statement against interest, but my reading is only the announcement's required.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Good call.

0

drater

1 year ago

who knows. best guess is the VP debate gets everyone talking about Vance pissing Trump off. And then he agrees to Fox debate to get attention back

Will there be another debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

How will watching the VP debate affect his feelings about it?

0

FrgalfrgalCZ

1 year ago

Donald and his team knows that another debate would tank his rankings, there is no way he will agree to another debate

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep, very confusing. My assumption, as I posted below, is that it's the announcement, but it'll certainly be subject to debate.

0

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

Another poorly-worded market. Is the October 15 deadline for when the debate will occur, or for the announcement?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I wonder if watching the VP debate will jiggle his mind.

3

yungretard

1 year ago

Averaging more lower bc im having a hard time believing either will want to pass up on a debate (and the variance that comes with it, despite all the current posturing) when the race is projected to be a coin toss. I could be wrong and they could both play it safe but idk, I have a feeling.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Hmm. Nah.

1

io9000

1 year ago

Just sell the shares already before you lose even more lol

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4898291-bret-baier-trump-not-harris-debate-holdup-fox-news/

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4898291-bret-baier-trump-not-harris-debate-holdup-fox-news/

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

" 64% Want To See The Two Candidates Debate Again " - That's a green light for the Harris campaign to continue goading.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908

0

Will there be another debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but all 3 debates historically take place between now and the election. Not before.

0

RolloTomssi

1 year ago

Don't forget! This would be the 3rd debate.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's true, and as long as he doesn't, it's an admission of inferiority.

1

Mountainman

1 year ago

No one on the right cares at all. He would look weak walking into a trap yet again.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

That, and his own party. He's looking very weak on this.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Left Wing rag says Kamala is pressuring Trump??? Quick, buy more 2-3 debates!!!!!

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894831-trump-pressure-second-harris-debate/

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Just the facts.

1

Mountainman

1 year ago

Historical levels of Cope.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Who cares?

4

io9000

1 year ago

You guys are simply dumb gamblers. Weeks ago i said kash patel said trump would do one debate and no one cared to verify or check. Degenerates.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ok, so you agree that it would be a great show of force for her, but your counterr argument is an ad hominem attack. Got it.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

You have yet to provide supporting arguments, you're just restating your assertion.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

And it would be a 'show, not tell' of her stated intention of being a president 'for all Americans'

0

Shayku

1 year ago

It would be quite a show of confidence to show up on Fox.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

It would be quite a show of confidence to show up on Fox.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I don't see why she wouldn't agree to a Fox debate if there's also a CNN debate to cap things off.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Trump flat out said NO to CNN, no negotiation of terms whatsoever. Literally 0% chance Kamala agrees to a Fox debate. Not to mention that every week they send a new assassin after Trump. This one is over Boys and Girls! Anything under 90 cents is a bargain.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Same. It would ultimately be fairest if they did ABC, Fox, then CNN without fact check.

0

yoonmarketenjoyer

1 year ago

My theory is Trump is trying to leverage the fact that Harris wants more debates in order to eventually get her to accept the Fox invitation.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Normally, this far out from the election, the first debate would not have occurred yet. In modern history, there was always 2 or 3 debates in October - https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/presidential-campaigns-debates-and-endorsements-0

0

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Nah bruh. People are voting already. Kamala was offered additional debates in August and she declined. Although she categorically won the debate, she didn’t really resonate with voters on key issues. She didn’t offer specific policy platforms. Mostly emotional platitudes and digs at Donald Trump. She needs another debate more than he does. I’m sure his internal polling shows that. People know Trump. They needed to get to know Harris and she didn’t really deliver. Oh well.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/presidential-campaigns-debates-and-endorsements-0

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's to late.

0

Chen1996

1 year ago

Trump had no issues with the first debate on CNN, will be interesting to see what he says in these upcoming days

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

There's simply no time.

1

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Wow the biggest pro multi debate guy lol

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

This one is gonna hit home - https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-tops-trump-two-points

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Like clockwork, today's polling shows a strong post-debate bounce for Harris. The pressure mounts, and it will continue to get worse for Trump in the next days. I expect the debate negotiations to be known some time between Sep 20th and Sep 25th.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Welp, turns out Nate Silver sees the same polls.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

The cope is strong with this one.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Because I'm expecting people to get antsy in the coming days, and the price to come down, and I want to get some cash before the downswing so I can buy them back cheaper over the weekend.

2

Pump

1 year ago

the pressure mounts, that is why you are offloading your 2 shares while posting bullish comments, gj

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Like clockwork, today's polling shows a strong post-debate bounce for Harris. The pressure mounts, and it will continue to get worse for Trump in the next days. I expect the debate negotiations to be known some time between Sep 20th and Sep 25th.

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Post-debate polling has started coming is and is looking positive for Harris. By the end of the week, he (small) lead should be confirmed, and at that point the pressure will really be on.

2

coolguy69

1 year ago

The argument for why there will be another debate: DJT is getting desperate, and if you just look at the calendar, there really aren't any more opportunities to strongly change the narrative. He will get desperate and do a second debate to try to drive up enthusiasm.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

There's no need to bet shame, to each our decisions.

5

Bettensor

1 year ago

Showing conviction with $5 lmao

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Go away.

0

GouValeau

1 year ago

Оn this bеt, VоtеХ [votenex.com] hаs dоublе thе liquiditу, аnd diffеrеnt оdds. it sееms tо hаvе а strоng аrbitrаgе орроrtunitу in thеsе mаrkеts

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Normally the first debate would not have happened yet, and there would be 3 to come.

6

Shayku

1 year ago

At this price, when they announce one, 3 will get a bigger multiplier bump than 2. Let alone if they announce 2 more at the same time.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

At this price, when they announce one, 3 will get a bigger multiplier bump than 2. Let alone if they announce 2 more at the same time.

3

kekkone

1 year ago

Three just somehow feels magical.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Trump, the day after your comment: "If I get in the right mood, sure." Yea, Trump says a lot of things, and by now we should all be accustomed to the repetitive pattern of his position changes.

1

just.some.guy

1 year ago

Trump: "There will not be another debate." This market: Eh, Trump says a lot of stuff.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not if people spend the weekend pricing in Trump's backtrack.

0

Will143

1 year ago

1 no shares going to be worth 15 c less by Monday.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

And the corresponding goading: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834767575642771837

1

Chen1996

1 year ago

Fox News: Trump appears to leave door open for second debate with Harris: 'Maybe if I got in the right mood

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Here's the video: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/trump-appears-leaves-door-open-second-debate-harris-maybe-i-got-right-mood.amp

0

Chen1996

1 year ago

He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/trump-appears-leaves-door-open-second-debate-harris-maybe-i-got-right-mood.amp

1

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

(thanks)

1

Chen1996

1 year ago

He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

lol obv

2

Chen1996

1 year ago

He's already backtracking: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/trump-harris-second-debate.html "In his news conference Friday, at a golf course he owns in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., Mr. Trump suggested he might again change his mind about another debate with Ms. Harris. “Maybe if I got in the right mood, I don’t know,” he said."

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

k

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Nothing new, he has flip-flopped many times ahead of the last debate. He'll frame it as a negotiation tactic.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Another - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/2024-debates-donald-trump-kamala-harris

0

Shayku

1 year ago

I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

From this article - https://newrepublic.com/post/184702/donald-trump-media-attention-kamala-harris-debate

0

Shayku

1 year ago

I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I don't have time to do the research, but here's one tidbit - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112896042195717073

0

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Nothing new, he has flip-flopped many times ahead of the last debate. He'll frame it as a negotiation tactic.

0

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Every night, he's replaying it in his mind, cringing and imagining what he should have said. He needs a bit more time to process, but he'll want his shot when he feels ready again.

2

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Posting this in the hopes of getting people to exit so I can get more at a lower price: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834347991286636953

3

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Well, good EV anyway.

1

Bettensor

1 year ago

Easy money lmao

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

The goading continues - https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834333718464389147

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea I quickly sold, and then got back in. Exciting.

0

jcooper3123212321

1 year ago

I'm not saying the movement in this market isn't somewhat understandable, but it's surprising to see how much this market moves based on the meaningless and contradictory "tweets" of someone who repeatedly said he wouldn't do the first debate.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Of course - thank you. I was being snotty, forgot we're not in the chat of the 'main' market.

1

sd2333

1 year ago

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/donald-trump-says-he-wont-do-another-debate-with-kamala-harris-c7d8e428?st=R7YjZm Asked if Trump was in fact ruling out a debate, a spokeswoman said in an email, “You heard the man!”

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea, that scenario makes sense too. It's actually why I think we might see 2 more debates - Fox, then NBC, to balance things out. But of course, who knows.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Doing a repeat of the debate in front of his own crowd would be the last nail in his campaign.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

Why would she ever agree to that?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea he said that today. As we've seen at the debate, he's as focused as my dog in a pool of squirrels, and Kamala is a squirrel druid.

1

sd2333

1 year ago

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/donald-trump-says-he-wont-do-another-debate-with-kamala-harris-c7d8e428?st=R7YjZm Asked if Trump was in fact ruling out a debate, a spokeswoman said in an email, “You heard the man!”

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

As Chen indicated, the goading begins: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

2

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

You got out fast.

0

JayZee

1 year ago

Might be a long shot but you never know with Trumps ego

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

The main market has flipped in Kamala's favour. We've had several flippenings in the past, but I believe this one has stuck the longest. It seems very possible that we never see it flip back. The honeymoon may have faded, but at the debate, Kamala's skill and seriousness was affirmed and committed to collective memory. Trump would need a shake-up, of a kind that is nowhere to be seen on the horizon. Can he really afford to leave the debate stage with this performance?

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

You bragged.

15

·

Liked by mango-lass..., rozi and 13 others

JohnathanDoe

1 year ago

what went wrong?

Will there be another debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

As of this writing, this market is markedly cheaper - https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris/3-trump-vs-harris-debates-before-election?tid=1726108953516

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

50-Pence = TheGuru?

0

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

50-Pence and Waynewest buying up lots of Kamala. Whale watching is interesting.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I expect a second one, and when that's announced, '3' should triple.

2

bfip

1 year ago

fck i am gonna lose some money on this one, please tell me there will be more than one debate. vs Hillary and Biden he also did more than 1.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ouh, are we looking at another battle on the main market?

0

Caligulas.dog

1 year ago

Waynewest is accumulating like crazy

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

And by the way, the wording on the 'number of debates' market is better, and you should adopt standard wording to minimize confusion. Like game rules, or text on Magic cards. Standard vocabulary, standard syntax, etc.

2

Shayku

1 year ago

Rules check: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate hosted by them between July 20, and October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." ... What has to happen between those dates? The announcement, the agreement or the debate? I would assume it's the announcement.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Rules check: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate hosted by them between July 20, and October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." ... What has to happen between those dates? The announcement, the agreement or the debate? I would assume it's the announcement.

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Exactly.

0

BuckMySalls

1 year ago

His rebuttal is as credible as the 92-8 poll he cites. He just wants to negotiate more favorable terms and once the polls bump her up, he'll become more flexible on the conditions.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Cheers, good luck!

0

Highboard

1 year ago

1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's a good point, but I think she's not doing those because she's just not great at them. She's not very personable one on one. But she is great in a more antagonistic context, maybe because of her experience as prosecutor. So my assumption is that she'll want as much of that type of confrontation injected into the campaign as possible.

1

Highboard

1 year ago

1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Or, would Harris show up to a Fox News debate? At this point I think she might. If she can pull off a similar performance there, it's the final nail.

2

Highboard

1 year ago

1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

I have the opposite take. Trump needs a re-do, Harris campaign has asked for one. This is happening.

0

Highboard

1 year ago

1 is now a lock boys. Both sides have incentive not to go for a 2nd. Trump doesn't want another ass whupping, and Kamala doesn't want to risk Fox News. Let's distribute those winnings.

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why?

12

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 10 others

Dzso

1 year ago

Florida and Texas both have to flip, at a minimum, for this to happen.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

As I posted last week, she still needs to secure republican votes, now has the confidence to show up on Fox, and Trump is angling for the next debate to happen there: https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-reacts-abc-news-presidential-debate-performance-says-whether-hes-open-second-harris

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

No, he's angling to do it on Fox News.

0

Wael

1 year ago

"Trump just said on Fox News that he won't participate in another debate unless it's on a fair news network. He claims he's a winner, and she's asking for another debate because she lost."

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/brianefallon/status/1833698318829982118?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1833698318829982118%7Ctwgr%5E5c93222e6fc8d75cc904691559f017a7adff831f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Flive-news%2Fkamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-september-10-2024

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's the same rules as the last derivative market, which had a lot of market pumping drama, but no rules drama that I was aware of.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

What drama do you expect? There's not enough money on it right now to warrant rocking the main market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

The volume isn't there, at least not yet.

0

babendums

1 year ago

im in for the whale games

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

But they need to do that for over 2 hours.

0

432

1 year ago

they do it on purpose.They simply need to pump harris a bit within a 4h period a day AFTER the debate where the volume is back down so harris will win the bet

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

What drama do you expect? There's not enough money on it right now to warrant rocking the main market.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

This market has a very large potential for serious drama, though they should have expired it during the debate.

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

where do you stand?

2

sigh

1 year ago

some of yall are really going either 1) omg there's no way she can win them all, I multiplied the probabilities and it's less than 5% or 2) it's literally just a georgia market, have you seen the 538 snake graph??

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

0 debate holders are probably people who have multiple bets and go for high variance, high EV bets.

1

BennyS

1 year ago

0 debate holders are about to become $0 holders

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Whales are only toe-deep though.

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

Let's do this again on the 11th:

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Are we expecting some boat rocking here? Whales are only toe-deep.

2

Who will win the debate according to polls?

Shayku

1 year ago

No theyre saying 538 will say that.

1

KingAlex

1 year ago

People saying Border Czar Kamala will win are smoking crack. Burdened by the unburdened.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

That was awesome

1

Rueben

1 year ago

Are you not entertained?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Watching.

0

Fred19999

1 year ago

5 minutes until take off 🚀

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Part of the theory is money laundering, so it would indeed be with other wallets.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

unless they're going to do it with other wallets, the topholders have no liquidity. they lost it all betting on this market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Take the other side and let's go

0

HaterzLoserz

1 year ago

Now that im out, max chaos please, want to see lawsuits and everything

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's only 1.3M to pump Kamala to .50, and it's not like that money goes to a loss. I don't see why it wouldn't be manipulated, personally.

5

CookedAlligator

1 year ago

This time there is too much liquidity to let it happen

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Fake princess.

0

princess4trump

1 year ago

What is happening Friday

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

CFTC is a US agency.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Hopefully the CFTC looks into this shit. Very sketchy imho

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Hmm, seems like it was 2003 - https://www.c-span.org/video/?178099-1/democratic-presidential-candidates-debate

0

just.some.guy

1 year ago

You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Notably, Fox News was scheduled to host a Democratic primary debate in 2008, but the debate was canceled due to backlash from Democratic candidates and liberal groups who objected to the network's perceived bias against the Democratic Party.

0

just.some.guy

1 year ago

You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Actually just one for the Dems: Fox News hosted a Democratic primary debate on September 9, 2004, in Baltimore, Maryland.

0

just.some.guy

1 year ago

You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Oh that was the original date? I didn't even think that was on the horizon for anyone. This is about post-10th

1

mr.ozi

1 year ago

I am so happy you're here :)

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election cycle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News. Fox also hosted many primary debates, for both parties.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

Never in history was there a presidential debate on Fox. If she does poorly, Trump will agree to a debate in the "fake news" media to hit her again. If she does well, there will be too much too risk for her to go to Fox News. It ain't happening 😘😉

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why on the 4th?

0

0xNabs

1 year ago

Getting ready for the bottom price on this one on the 4th and load up - chances are she will need more debates after her polls start tanking…!

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.

1

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

She'll want to increase her visibility with Republicans

0

just.some.guy

1 year ago

And you expect she'd choose Fox News? Would Trump ever do a debate hosted by MSNBC? Ever wonder why that is?

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ah you're right, I was looking at the polls forecast

0

McLarry

1 year ago

Yes, I have also subscribed. How high is harris' current probability of winning in Arizona? ;)

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

47.6 vs 47.2

0

McLarry

1 year ago

Yes, I have also subscribed. How high is harris' current probability of winning in Arizona? ;)

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

You must not be subscribed. I'm looking at the table now.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

this is a lie, Harris leads only in WI and MI. Just sell your bags, they will drop even further

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

As of this writing, Nate Silver has Harris leading each of those states.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

No power to alcohol kids, otherwise you'll end up like Grandpa Shayku.

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

If you're going to bet Dem in Georgia, this market is much better value for you: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state?tid=1724934789659

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

Shayku

1 year ago

Probably, but at 4%, the EV is on 3.

0

Darth-JarJar

1 year ago

One of the typical 3 debates already happened with Biden and Trump. This market is between Harris and Trump only. It’s either 0, 1, or 2.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Shayku

1 year ago

What's weird is calling your own blog post 'excellent'.

7

SummerWind

1 year ago

Actually, that's no true. From this excellent blog post: "from a broader market perspecitve: imagine Kamala has a 52% chance to win, but the odds don’t move much, so you can estimate that one day before the election the probability of her winning will still be 52% with a 70% probability. Then one market should have 52%, and the other 70%." https://polymarketblogger.wordpress.com/home/food-for-thought/why-it-makes-sense-for-the-polymarket-to-have-different-odds-for-options/

Arizona Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

Nate Silver has Harris in the lead.

0

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Shayku

1 year ago

This market is still underpriced. It's basically a Georgia market right now.

2

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Perhaps, but in the situation they now find themselves in, it would seem much more consistent to resolve as 'Yes'. If not they'd have to go back and modify other markets.

0

Bigdog666

1 year ago

PolyMarket jumped the gun. And overplayed their hand without understanding the politcal landscape of US Politics and Campaign strategies that supersede this basic ass move they played.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

Shayku

1 year ago

We went through this with Bernie not endorsing Harris. He said he would work to get people to vote for her, but didn't use the word 'endorse' so it resolved to 'No'. This seems to be the same.

11

·

Liked by EmpirePend..., LMNOP and 9 others

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

Other markets on here consider RFK to have dropped out. How would PM resolve the inconsistency?

3

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

You can't calculate expected value without including 'the probability of the outcome'

1

Morgan101

1 year ago

You have gambled $7k for a maximum upside of $360. Betting the same amount the opposite way has a potential payout of $138k. No matter what you think about the probability of the outcome here - which has the highest expected value?

North Carolina Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

Well that aged poorly.

1

0x688514D28AE78B3A39573802a00Aa3b32e1e2602-1722977934152

1 year ago

GA ain’t in play

Nevada Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea, good to observe the behaviour of the markets

0

AmericansCantBetHere

1 year ago

given that DNC is up in Nevada now per the market, my guess is simply market delays

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Shayku

1 year ago

I disagree, she needs to speak to a more unlikely crowd. She can set some conditions like Trump did for his Biden debate on CNN. She won't have any trouble with Trump, he's very old and slow.

4

diddy

1 year ago

I don't think voting here YES is the right choice. It should be ±15. Kamala would destroy her presidential bid by just appearing on Fox. She's at an extreme disadvantage. Right now she's on a lead on pools. Out of all presidential bids, historically, why would she be the one to accept this roast bid.

Nevada Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

Polls show him down - including Nate Silver's model

2

0xc82CDDbfD073be01AE8DF2968827aa82269B4c85-1717120400943

1 year ago

Trumps plan for no tax on tips, GOP Governor cleaning up voter rolls, and the polls show Trump up big.

Nevada Presidential Election Winner

Shayku

1 year ago

Why does this market disagree with the polling and history?

0

Harris vs. Trump: Who will raise more each month?

Shayku

1 year ago

Oh, that youtube video of a guy running around a suburb? Yea ok.

1

Shayku

1 year ago

Like what, for example?

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Shayku

1 year ago

Tie in the house?

0

fatal

1 year ago

who is others?

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

Shayku

1 year ago

Really, they have to crowdfund? Poor Americans, they don't trust each other to form a functioning government.

0

0xCb9cF4773A232Ac612E656dF7733e659E1eEf515-1722999050018

1 year ago

Better than American athletes who have to crowdfund online... US govt is such a disgrace, can't even support their own athletes...

Harris vs. Trump: Who will raise more each month?

Shayku

1 year ago

Like what, for example?

3

0x10Efaa649117eBfD76C98F93E9381A4D2ab62FEC-1721606582418

1 year ago

Easy. Cant compete with corrupt dem fundraising tactics

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Unity ticket.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Waltz is the progressive choice. Kamala wants to shrug off that label.

0

scattering

1 year ago

NGL, I wonder what assumptions of mine were wrong if I should lose tomorrow

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Shapiro is the hedge, keeps me even. Pete is the play, the others are cheap upside.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Unlikely, but best EV by far.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

The things that have happened are still factors.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Kamala hasn’t picked anybody, which is why she’s doing interviews with each of the candidates today. Anyone saying “it’s already X person” is an idiot. Anything can happen right now.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Unlikely, but best EV by far.

1

yourrapist1776

1 year ago

The buttigieg yes people are even more retarded than the shapiro yes people

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

The one with the most name ID, favorability and executive experience.

0

Socialise

1 year ago

Who

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's what flipped me over. Pelosi knows what's up, and Kamala needs a compass.

0

Gamerinblue

1 year ago

Pelosi supporting Walz is basically Pelosi's way of telling Kamala, "Don't go with Shapiro."

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

If that's the MAGA attack on Buttigieg, she should pick him yesterday.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Alright fam, everybody ready for tomorrow's pump??

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Alright fam, everybody ready for tomorrow's pump??

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Philly mayor? The one that posted a video that included Shapiro as VP?

0

GreenBeanEater

1 year ago

Walz endorsements: UAW, Biden, Pelosi, House Dem caucus, teachers’ unions | Shapiro endorsements: Biden, Philly mayor

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

My issue with Waltz is he's the progressive choice, and Harris wants to get away from that label.

2

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Still on discount :)

0

Yehudi

1 year ago

Thanks for the massive Buttigieg discount there. I think I am ready now; see you tomorrow.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

You might be right, but it could be that the controversies are being floated to gauge the reaction and how they might deal with it, which would demonstrate the seriousness of their consideration.

1

GreenBeanEater

1 year ago

With conspiracy theories flying around in every direction, I think reality is more obvious. Everyone has been deluded by the Philly rally and the mayor tweet. However, Kamala hasn't even finished the interviews yet. She hasn't picked. It being Josh Shapiro only works if she's already picked him, because there's no way she'd pick him now after all of these controversies. I think it won't be Shapiro.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why? Without a view on the politics, it just reflects the odds like any other position.

1

n/a

1 year ago

Don’t know much about politics, but it’s nice to get better than 3:1 on a No in a multiway market, especially like this one.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

What the odds should be: Shapiro 30% - Walz 20% - Kelly 20% - Pete 15% - Beshear 10% - Pritzker 5%

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

100% - Ezra was the canari in the coal mine for Biden

1

lronmexico

1 year ago

Ezra Klein featuring him this morning feels significant.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm not sure who the person is that would vote for Harris but not Pete. And I think that drawing hateful attacks from MAGA and making them tilt is actually a great contrast strategy.

0

oznek

1 year ago

they will not put a gay man on the same ticket as a black woman

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed, and it's certainly a risk, but going for value will pay off over the long run. I'm also not that hot on Kelly. Great resume, but he's the weaker public speaker of the bunch, and I think they need to go all in on being media darlings.

0

Andy0091

1 year ago

Pete holders how are we feeling? Very much a long shot, but definitely think the odds are higher than the current bids.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Same, I have just enough Beshear to keep me even if it's him, I think I'll do the same with Waltz.

0

Andy0091

1 year ago

Pete holders how are we feeling? Very much a long shot, but definitely think the odds are higher than the current bids.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I could go for a pump to skim a bit off the top, but I'm confident on the value. The polls show Pete has great favourability. Harris is looking at the data and going for 270, not a one-state backstop. I'm counting on the campaign to go bold and go for contrast.

1

Andy0091

1 year ago

Pete holders how are we feeling? Very much a long shot, but definitely think the odds are higher than the current bids.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Right, that's what I thought. But I imagine a lot of this is in flux for them anyway.

0

Remontada

1 year ago

Per NYTIMES moments ago: "Here’s a potential veepstakes tea leaf: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky are scheduled to host fund-raisers for the Harris campaign on Monday night, the evening before the deadline that the Harris campaign has suggested it has set to announce its vice-presidential pick. Walz will headline a fund-raiser in Minneapolis, and Beshear will be featured at one in Chicago, according to the invites."

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not sure what that indicates at all - those would be negatives against them being picked?

1

Remontada

1 year ago

Per NYTIMES moments ago: "Here’s a potential veepstakes tea leaf: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky are scheduled to host fund-raisers for the Harris campaign on Monday night, the evening before the deadline that the Harris campaign has suggested it has set to announce its vice-presidential pick. Walz will headline a fund-raiser in Minneapolis, and Beshear will be featured at one in Chicago, according to the invites."

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Pete can bring both.

0

nuhuh

1 year ago

The last week has shown the dems that the way to win is by letting Trump and MAGA implode from racist and sexist attacks. Dems need a swing state, but imo the next biggest priority is someone who MAGA has a very hard time attacking.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

The only scenario in which Kamala needs a PA bump is one where her campaign is not going well. I don't think this is the kind of campaign that should look for safety.

1

DarkZuckerberg - 28387

1 year ago

The VP home state bump could be a fallacy, but how many data points for this exact case do we have to say this with absolute certainty? You have a very popular governor who you would immediately host a rally with in his hometown, Philly, which happens to be the largest city in the entire state. Even Karl Rove admits that the VP pick could swing the PA vote by a point or two. Anyone who studies the electoral map can see that the entire election may very well be determined by PA. Kamala's also been friends with Shapiro for 20 years

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep. He polls the best, too.

1

midastouch

1 year ago

People are sleeping on Pete big time. He won the Iowa caucus during his presidential run as well, something very few expected.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why? Is there anyone who would have voted for Harris who would not vote for Pete?

0

n/a

1 year ago

I think Pete is wonderful, but proposing a ticket with a black-indian woman at the top and a gay man as VP would be suicidal for the Dems and they know.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I see no reason for Shapiro to e so high tonight.

2

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

To each our scale.

0

ootharju

1 year ago

if you're so confident buy more than 56 shares of Beshear

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Thanks, that's precisely what I thought, was wondering if I missed something, and happy to have someone else confirm it and spell it out.

2

GreenBeanEater

1 year ago

He cancelled his weekend plans and everyone thought it was confirmed that it was him. Now that Beshear and Pete have cancelled their weekend plans too, it’s pretty obvious it’s just the interviews, but the Shapiro price stuck. Also, people still think the Philly rally means anything about the VP pick. Kind of stupid.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Why does everyone think it's Shapiro again?

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I mean, I might dump some around 0.20, but nothing will get it there that wouldn't also prompt me to keep it.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm pumping but I'm not dumping.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm pumping but I'm not dumping.

0

Ox8

1 year ago

Dont listen to these liars pumping pete. Obvious pump and dump beong sold by 2 known liars

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's Pete. Always has been.

1

666-DemsAreTheDevil

1 year ago

pete up 300% in the last couple of hours. what's happened?

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea he's gay, that's why Maga will tilt. Many of them will turn hateful, and moderate voters will see the ugly in that, while the Dems will have all th space to point at the future.

1

babybeluga

1 year ago

why would it be pete? someone petepill me, i'm like 4 tequila sodas deep and ready to make bad decisions with my uncle's money

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Best name id, best on tv, best on national polls, magas will tilt.

1

babybeluga

1 year ago

why would it be pete? someone petepill me, i'm like 4 tequila sodas deep and ready to make bad decisions with my uncle's money

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

A data-driven clue: https://x.com/mimsynotion/status/1818439960502190184

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Further arguments: One, note the campaign will travel east to west to chase the daylight and have campaign stops across the USA. So it would make sense that you'd start the furthest east - i.e., Philadelphia. Two, all the photos, videos, and audio for this initial VP reveal event will be made into paid media. So you want your top campaign talent there (Wilmington and DC are both drivable to Philadelphia).

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Good move. Shapiro is quite possible, but there are plenty of other scenarios.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

No, but it suggests the location could be based on it being a swing state.

0

BakktIsLive

1 year ago

Not one of the vps you mentioned was from a state considered a swing state at the time of the election though. The clear trend you've shown is that announcements tend to be in swing states, or the home state of the presidential candidate. So none of that proves anything about Shapiro.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

You could be right. I'm seeing theories that she announces someone else, then they make up with Shapiro on PA and they kick off the tour.

0

Btc101

1 year ago

All of those locations were neutral. If Harris picks someone other than Shapiro, then kicks off the rallies in Philly, it would be a HUGE slap in the face to Shapiro. There is NO way Harris would humiliate and alienate Shapiro. She very much needs his help.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed. The politico article says Shapiro hasn't spoken to her in a couple of weeks. And a small edge in a state is not the play - elections are fully national now, and Pete has a gift for TV interviews. The right will freak out about the 'diversity' while the dems get to stay on message with their vision.

0

Bobby-Highwater

1 year ago

Her aide said that she hasn't even done interviews yet. Shapiro is smug, Harris is gonna see that immediately. Can you imagine Buttigieg going into something like a VP interview and not laying out the best damned vision for her that she won't be able to say No to.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Good move. Shapiro is quite possible, but there are plenty of other scenarios.

1

Bobby-Highwater

1 year ago

Sold my Shaprio on the rally news, bought Buttigieg.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

They announced that by Tuesdau, Harris will announce her VP, then on Tuesday, they kick off a series of rallies that starts in Pennsylvania. People are inferring that it means the pick is Shapiro.

5

Nikitka

1 year ago

Why did Shapiro spike today? 🤔

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

No, I bought him cheap enough that I can risk it.

0

n/a

1 year ago

This guy just held on to Pete too long and is trying to prop the market up before dumping

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

VP announcement locations: Vance: Wisconsin Harris: Delaware Pence: New York Kaine: Florida Ryan: Virginia Biden: Illinois Palin: Ohio Edwards: Pennsylvania Cheney: Texas Lieberman: Tennessee NONE were in the VP pick's home state

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/dickersondon/status/1818321539617771552

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Will Harris be bold? (And see the value of money?) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-kamala-harris-running-mate.html

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Guess again.

1

omarlittle

1 year ago

It also doesn't make that much sense from Shapiro's side to run with Kamala this election. If she wins, he needs to wait eight years. If she loses, he loses luster. Deals are being cut and it really is Walz and Beshear.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/kjcmedianet/status/1818352209446453576

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Someone tweeted that someone said that he got extra security. This crowd is super twitchy.

0

Snooty

1 year ago

Beshear makes absolutely no sense, it’s still either Shapiro or Kelly

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

This is why Beshear is spiking? One tweet from a rando columnist, unverified and unsubstantiated?

0

HouseSlytherin

1 year ago

https://x.com/ClistonBrown/status/1818298514386141300

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

He's fading out, he's not able to attack the way others do. Why is he even popping right now?

0

Jerbno

1 year ago

Beshear is extremely undervalued. I'm telling you guys at this point in time there's a 50%+ perchent chance it's him.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I didn't mean to make you cry.

0

Yehudi

1 year ago

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/president-vp-same-state-constitution/

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Oh sorry I mistook you for normal

0

Yehudi

1 year ago

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/president-vp-same-state-constitution/

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

To me the problem is not the administrative hurdle, they can get around that. The problem is doubling down on Californian progressivism, which people don't like across the spectrum. It opens a very valid line of attack for the right.

0

Yehudi

1 year ago

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/president-vp-same-state-constitution/

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Incel.

4

haluk

1 year ago

Which has the biggest dick which Kamala can blow occasionaly

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep. I find the arguments for state-specific votes a bit weak, since Pete does that on a national level.

0

MilkyJoe

1 year ago

No debate will result in Pete Buttigieg as VP. Kamala is behind in the polls, she will need a VP who can literally make news. That person is p-e-t-e

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

That shortlist came from Bloomberg, and they added him and Raimondo, after other outlets reported on it. I think it's because the vetting process for those in the admin is different.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Yeah I thought it was gonna be Buttigieg before the short-list even came out. He's gifted, probably the only time historically where the VP spot will actually make a difference to the election

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

It'll help tie the GOP to people like you.

0

haluk

1 year ago

a faggot like pete getting handpicked as VP would mean like an instant Trump popular vote victory

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

People are seriously sleeping on Buttigieg.

4

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

"America is not ready for Buttigieg" is internalized bigotry. Who is not ready, exactly? Let them make the argument themselves.

0

airi20025

1 year ago

u betting on a gay

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed, Pete is front and center, and being masterful in the media. He won't just win a state - he'll lift the ticket country-wide.

0

PolyPredictor2

1 year ago

Hi all, I was shocked to see Pete at 3%. He is all over the airwaves and it is established in political science already that swing state VP picks don't really make that much difference. Kamala needs Gen Z vote to win Michigan. Pete's sexuality will not be an issue. Woke-ism war cries were shown to be ineffective with Ron Desantis. The electorate wants common sense. Pete is the king of that

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yep!

0

Fighter-Mcgee

1 year ago

a bet on buttigieg is a bet that harris will not choose according to trying to get a one up on any particular swing state. nate silver already detailed why this strategy is ineffective. for a campaign that needs to be hard and fast, harris needs an executer. pete can spin gold out of nothing, he can manufacture virality like on one else out there

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

1- I don't have 750 cash right now. 2- I don't know how it works, are you just going to dispute and then I lose 750?

2

Laura

1 year ago

So what are you waiting for?

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not neutral either, but I agree, and in the current environment, there are plenty of news cycles left for him to float up from #4 to top 3.

1

GrannyWeatherwax

1 year ago

Kelly is a more likely candidate than Buttigieg, I'm not denying that. Just not 10 times as likely and so on average, I think Buttigieg is the better investment.

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea he endorsed her in Portland during a speech, which he then followed up with an interview and a tweet, but the trolls here keep obfuscating.

1

NewShack

1 year ago

Several sources say Sanders endorsed Harris yesterday

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Right, in this context, him saying "we have to do everything we can to elect Kamala Harris" fulfills that.

1

vote.fun

1 year ago

@Shayku go back and read the definition you agree with......... "formal - I fully endorse (= agree with) everything the Chairperson has said."

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

It doesn't get much more formal than standing on a stage in front of thousands of people, saying "our job is to elect Kamala Harris as the next president", then repeating that in an interview and a tweet.

2

vote.fun

1 year ago

@Shayku you forgot to read the sub definition of FORMAL..... LMFAOO

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Uh-huh.

1

vote.fun

1 year ago

just fyi he makes it clear in this video his support for kamala over trump is not a formal endorsement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg&list=RDNSqx5f0wvZvqg&start_radio=1

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sounds like we agree.

2

Laura

1 year ago

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/endorse

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

I guess we'll have to let judges decide when she gets nominated by August 7th.

1

vote.fun

1 year ago

just fyi he makes it clear in this video his support for kamala over trump is not a formal endorsement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg&list=RDNSqx5f0wvZvqg&start_radio=1

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Sure, but that was before the formal endorsement in Portland.

4

vote.fun

1 year ago

just fyi he makes it clear in this video his support for kamala over trump is not a formal endorsement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg&list=RDNSqx5f0wvZvqg&start_radio=1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed. They're quite close, too. And he has both executive experience as mayor, and federal administration experience. And he's excellent on TV, one of the only dems who goes on Fox. Of course, his sexual orientation can create doubts, but I hope they'll see that it would be self-defeating to exclude him on that basis, and that being unrestrained and bold is a much better look in the face of sexism, racism and homophobia. When the question is whether America is ready for this, the answer should be that "America is ready for itself. These people represent the diversity at the core of American life."

0

Knightinshiningarmour

1 year ago

My rational mind says its gonna be one of the frontrunners, but my gut is sure it will end up being Pete. He's a once in a generation politician, I think Kamala sees that

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3101988/sanders-endorses-harris-for-president/

4

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.mainepublic.org/news/2024-07-28/vermont-senator-bernie-sanders-endorses-vice-president-kamala-harris-at-portland-rally-saturday

2

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

The endorsement tweet came after that video.

0

Laura

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSanoug_B9E It's very unlikely he's going to change his language any time soon. In the video he says "I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that Kamala Harris is elected" while at the same time withholding his formal endorsement. Compare his endorsement for Hillary in 2016: "I have come here to make it as clear as possible why I am endorsing Hillary Clinton and why she must become our next president."

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

No it's ok, he already endorsed.

0

vote.fun

1 year ago

The anti establishment politician has 3 days to endorse someone that came out of the most establishment anti democratic primary in history....lol

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea this is the tweet that these two refuse to see as an endorsement. It comes after he didn't endorse her, and is an endorsement, but the 'No' side argues it isn't, despite the fact that the Obama market resolved on something similar.

0

homosexual

1 year ago

Bernie Sanders endorsed Kamala Harris: https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1817243928548319732

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Bloomberg, original source of the shortlist, updated to say Pete and Raimondo were in the mix for vetting.

0

Yanoya4sure

1 year ago

The shortlist is a device used to measure sentiment imo

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

There already was, we're good.

1

Whome

1 year ago

There will never be a "formal" announcement from a guy who wears a KMart parka and homemade mittens to a presidential inaguration. It's not his style.

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

The market had resolved before that, on a tweet similar to Bernie's.

0

Whome

1 year ago

If you want to know what a "formal endorsement" looks like, read this. https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2024/07/obama.png

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

He's right.

0

vote.fun

1 year ago

put your brain back in your head

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Just a friendly guyy.

1

minji

1 year ago

are you a woman?

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea he means the probability that a state will be the tipping point.

1

DonaldRump

1 year ago

Nate Silver: Full model coming ~Tuesday but here are current tipping state probabilities for Harris-Trump: PA: 30% MI: 23% WI: 12% NC: 10% GA: 8% AZ: 4% FL: 3% NV: 2%

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's wrong, he has said 'We must elect Kamala Harris.' That's an endorsement.

0

diogenes

1 year ago

Bernie has till now only said that he will do everything to help Harris defeat Trump. That's not an endorsement.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I think you mean antizionist. Palestinians are also semites.

0

Yanoya4sure

1 year ago

Kowtowing to antisemetic voters on your VP sets a tone for the prospective presidency. Will she cave to them on every issue? A path to victory requires moderation.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's a good theory. Still a few news cycles to go though.

0

Yanoya4sure

1 year ago

The shortlist is a device used to measure sentiment imo

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

The leaders are overvalued. It seems based on media stories echoing their own narratives, without much basis.

1

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

Shayku

1 year ago

Just to freak the Trump holders out: Fivethirtyeight has been heavily criticized for their electoral model post-Silver. It is very possible that they use this chance to tweak it, notably to reduce the weight or nature of fundamentals. But even then, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they put Harris ahead.

2

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

ABC reported that he endorsed her.

0

diogenes

1 year ago

Bernie hasn't endorsed Harris yet. He is waiting for Harris to give him the same policy assurances that Biden gave him before. Until Bernie formally announcing that he is "endorsing Harris" this shouldn't be resolved to "Yes". https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/bernie-sanders-on-why-he-hasn-t-endorsed-kamala-harris-yet-215787589823

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

You know very well that video precedes this debate, the tweet and the rally.

0

Laura

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg If you want a clear example that he strongly supports her but made it clear he will not formally endorse her until he gets certain reassurances that he has repeatedly says he must get.

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

As I've said, all my cash is placed for now and I'm not moving it. Maybe if some markets cash out I'll do it.

0

Laura

1 year ago

Guys, argue all you want, or propose a resolution. We've discussed this and in 24 hours no one has proposed a resolution for good reason. Propose or you have no claim (which you don't)

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

Does polymarket have judges that make the call? When Harris gets nominated, is someone at Polymarket going to look at this and decide one way or the other?

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Hahaha great way to lose PA

2

SportsRecord

1 year ago

This just in: Donald Trump “plans to park [JD] Vance in Pennsylvania for the next four months…” This confirms that Pennsylvania is at the top of the GOP’s list as they work to flip the Senate and the White House.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Can't wait to see the GOP attacks all based on racism, sexism and homophobia, all based on name calling. They do that already and it's not exactly converting new votes. Meanwhile Kamala and Pete can pivot to their vision for the future. I can't imagine a better contrast.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Ah yes... the winning ticket...a woman of color and a homosexual man against a guy riding on assasination attempt votes.

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

It says nothing. All my cash is placed.

0

ActDrew

1 year ago

nobody has even proposed a resolution, so that tells you everything you need to know

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

It was a big deal back then because he had run against them. Not this time around, when the entire democratic party has already endorsed. It has little bearing now.

0

vote.fun

1 year ago

"He did not formally endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, but told CBS 13 News that he hopes Harris defeats Trump if she is the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election." https://wgme.com/news/local/sen-bernie-sanders-rallies-in-portland-urges-support-for-kamala-harris-against-trump

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's from before the rally comment that ABC covered as "Bernie Sanders endorses Harris"

0

vote.fun

1 year ago

not formal, literally said hes withholding for concessions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

He didn't mention Trump at all, he said "Kamala Harris must become our next president"

0

n/a

1 year ago

Sounds like he's making a tactical choice to defeat Trump, not endorsing Kamala to be the Democratic Nominee for President.

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

ABC News titled their mini-article "Bernie Sanders endorses Harris" - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/biden-drops-out-updates/?id=112113289&entryId=112335174

1

fundamentalmisunderstanding

1 year ago

the wmtw article is a small town station and it's the only one that declared a "formal endorsement". I think if it were truly a formal endorsement, it would be widely reported as such by big news outlets. The abc article is a start, but it's the only major one and doesn't say "formal".

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

Shayku

1 year ago

No. It's owned by ABC, but it tries to take a neutral, data-driven approach, but fails in some ways that will actually favor Trump.

1

abee-Capital-Management

1 year ago

This forecast is tendentious to democrats ?

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

But I think wetard needs Bernie to show up to his house in person and tell him.

0

milize

1 year ago

https://www.wmtw.com/article/bernie-sanders-formally-endorses-kamala-harris-for-president-at-portland-rally/61717060 Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders formally endorses Vice President Kamala Harris for president at Portland rally lol it's over No bros

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

WOOP!

0

milize

1 year ago

so this is pretty definitive

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

He would be undermining his political power

1

vote.fun

1 year ago

imagine being a retard who has no idea bernie is NOT A DEMOCRAT and wont endorse her without major concessions first

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

Shayku

1 year ago

This says Friday was 55 - but maybe you have a better source? https://deadline.com/2024/07/box-office-deadpool-wolverine-1236022761/

0

Mrc4t987

1 year ago

Prediction: Preview: 38.5 Friday: 54 Saturday: 58 Sunday: 42 Total: 192

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'd love to see him explain that he endorsed her as President, but not as the nominee.

1

n/a

1 year ago

Bernie hasn't said anything about the democratic nomination, just the presidency.

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

Shayku

1 year ago

You're close so far, 38.5, 55...

0

Mrc4t987

1 year ago

Prediction: Preview: 38.5 Friday: 54 Saturday: 58 Sunday: 42 Total: 192

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4795884-sanders-wants-more-commitments-harris/

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I expect he will.

0

Paul4President

1 year ago

I really need Buttigieg to win this so I can turn my last .75c into $8 and buy myself a sandwich

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

'as soon as' 6 days.

1

vote.fun

1 year ago

6 days https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-campaign-dnc-virtual-roll-call/

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

'as soon as August 1st' ... but as late as August 7th.

2

vote.fun

1 year ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-campaign-dnc-virtual-roll-call/

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

August 7 is in 11 days.

0

vote.fun

1 year ago

gl you have 6 days for him to do it

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

He just wants to look like he's getting concessions on middle class issues, but she already stated it as her focus. It also helps make her seem less liberal that she has to 'negotiate' with that wing of the party.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I agree that he's undervalued. I don't think he'll get it, but it's a cheap moonshot to buy.

0

Demosthenes

1 year ago

Pritzker is definitely undervalued, that's for sure. Crazy that Whitmer and Hillary are ahead when we know Pritzker is being vetted.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Good pivot.

1

Yanoya4sure

1 year ago

Shapiro had an interview today where he said he stands for everything Kamala said in her statement after the Netanyahu meeting. He said he supports two-state, condemned Netanyahu's handling of the war, and reiterated the goal of peace in the region and minimizing Gaza suffering. The comments came after the union rally today.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

That's definitely the safe approach, but I think it would be a self-defeating choice for a campaign that should be bold and unrestrained. With the tone they've adopted so far, that kind of diversity ticket would fit, and it would invite attacks that make the right seem petty.

0

MSGRallySpeaker

1 year ago

Buttigieg is a good talker, but with Kamala being Female/Black/Indian, they will want to ticket-balance with a middle-aged white guy imo.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not impossible, but they all seem to have happy families, unlike the other side.

0

airi20025

1 year ago

they're gay and doign the sex

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I think Kelly and Shapiro are overvalued here. The media keeps calling them frontrunners, but there hasn't been tangible basis for it, they're just repeating each other's analysis. Buttigieg has highest name ID, and him and Walz have been killing it on TV.

2

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

They're doing a fundraiser together - https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1816579067698626796

1

FoxyLegend

1 year ago

i go to pilates with chasten buttigieg. after class i saw on his phone he was messaging kamala's husband doug. no idea what words were exchanged between them, and it's probably just that they're friends or something

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

No, Michelle doesn't want to, and he'd be seen as the 'actual' president - very undermining to the new generation.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Barack Obama for VP.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1816579067698626796

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Totally. It shows that there's at least as many conspiracy meme lords here as there are following democratic party politics.

1

Demosthenes

1 year ago

Pritzker = Hillary is acc hilarious lmao. He is a top contender internally

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Shhh I'm trying to buy more

0

thismyaccount99

1 year ago

Pritzker is insane value

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Pritzker is deliciously underpriced. He's on the shortlist. When he gets his next media cycle, he'll pop hard. Get'em while they're cheap!

2

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

With his stance on Israel? Not sure.

1

PolyPredictor

1 year ago

I feel like this is the Republic VP market all over again. It was always JD Vance but people tried to push others up instead. This was always going to be Shapiro, gotta block out the noise

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

What do you suggest we base it on? Some meme you found?

2

Cryptochrema

1 year ago

I have no idea how you validate the yes of this as the outcome. Just because it appears that the broadcast is occurring, doesn’t mean that it wasn’t pre-recorded.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm not as high on Kelly as the market, but in this particular election, I would think that risking a seat is a less important factor than in previous elections. There's too much of an 'all-in' feel to this one.

0

FBInformationsider

1 year ago

Mark Kelly would be a formidable pick but do they really want to risk a Senate seat?

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN reports it was live, see above.

0

Car

1 year ago

Idk how we are able to prove its live or not

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

38 min ago Jill Biden and children were in the Oval Office as Biden addressed the nation From CNN's Sam Fossum President Joe Biden speaks during an address to the nation about his decision to not seek reelection as his son Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden's husband Howard Krein, Biden's daughter Ashley Biden and US First Lady Jill Biden listen, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 24. President Joe Biden speaks during an address to the nation about his decision to not seek reelection as his son Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden's husband Howard Krein, Biden's daughter Ashley Biden and US First Lady Jill Biden listen, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 24. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images First Lady Jill Biden, Hunter Biden, and some of President Joe Biden’s grandchildren sat in the Oval Office as he addressed the nation in prime time to explain his decision not to seek reelection, according to the press pool in the room. Ashley Biden, the president’s daughter, sat next to the first lady. Some of the president’s top advisers, including Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, were also in the room. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and communications director Ben LaBolt also watched from a monitor in the back of the room.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN reports it was live.

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

"Jill Biden and children were in the Oval Office as Biden addressed the nation"

0

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN reports it was live.

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

There's a photo of him and Jill under the boom mic

0

Shayku

1 year ago

At this URL : https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-speech-harris-trump-election-07-24-24/index.html

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

At this URL : https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-speech-harris-trump-election-07-24-24/index.html

0

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN reports it was live.

Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live?

Shayku

1 year ago

CNN reports it was live.

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Buttigieg is a known quantity.

0

MSGRallySpeaker

1 year ago

its not impossible but with how bad Vance has been performing as the "young guy", and for other ticket balancing reasons, I think theyre going with old straight white dude with more resume.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

This would play so well in response to the homophibia - https://x.com/alexchristy17/status/1720428208183472384

0

airi20025

1 year ago

mark kelly easiest win ever. appeals to not just democrats but republican too. buttigeig is a gay they wont pick him. shapiro is a jew they wont pick him. its cooper and kelly and kelly stands out easily.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Wow, look at the volumes on each side of the Buttigieg spread.

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm just covering my initial costs to be in the money. I'm not saying it's 100%, but I'm saying there's a definite case for it, and a narrative to build around it. Let the right cry 'woke' and 'DEI' - those insults will land flat when the democrats stop self-sabotaging by telling themselves that the people aren't ready. The people are diverse.

0

luke2drippy

1 year ago

I would like to thank everyone buying up Pete yes shares for the free money. Because obviously the Dems are going to try and boost their chances of electing the first female president by *checks notes* also running a gay man with her

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea, it's a 'own the right' campaign. Make MAGA angry again.

0

luke2drippy

1 year ago

I would like to thank everyone buying up Pete yes shares for the free money. Because obviously the Dems are going to try and boost their chances of electing the first female president by *checks notes* also running a gay man with her

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Pete already getting endorsements - https://x.com/CNNThisMorning/status/1816112217286185285

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1816113652333744393

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

No, there's breaking news that the campaign is considering him.

1

bxb

1 year ago

Someone just market bought Buttigieg taking it from 4% to 36% lmao!

Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in July?

Shayku

1 year ago

It's mostly about people respecting him for what he did.

2

user3269673686

1 year ago

fuck it why not - maybe he recovers and gives a solid address tomorrow night

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgVzuhDrTvk

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

He doesn't need to be vetted - he's already in the administration. They have more than they need on file already.

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Buttigieg at 0.03! Nice.

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Buttigieg at 0.03! Nice.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Where do you get your news?

0

l987

1 year ago

Since she's probably not the nominee, there's one obvious choice in the VP market

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

I was thinking that at first, but the more I look at it, the more I think the democrats need to be bold and out front. A ticket with a woman of color and a gay dad would contrast beautifully with the Hulk Hogan energy on the other side.

3

BigMike2024

1 year ago

A White-Irish Astronaut and Navy Pilot captain. Can you think of a better person to balance out Kamaltoe?

Democratic Blitz primary?

Shayku

1 year ago

A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field.

2

n/a

1 year ago

Hey Siri, what is a primary?

Major challenger to Kamala for Democratic nomination?

Shayku

1 year ago

Thanks, I suppose that is a possibility, but I wouldn't put it at 30%.

0

MSGRallySpeaker

1 year ago

Someone with too much money like Bloomberg that has no foresight to realize that its another round of setting his own money on fire. Other than that, probably no one

Major challenger to Kamala for Democratic nomination?

Shayku

1 year ago

I'm curious, who do people think will show up? It seems like political suicide at this point.

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

Shayku

1 year ago

And then sleep next to an angry woman because she told you clearly she didn't want it?

1

UnofficialDonaldTrump

1 year ago

If I were Obama, I would hesitate and instead endorse Michelle Obama as she is a more promising ticket against Trump (per statistical data)

Democratic Blitz primary?

Shayku

1 year ago

Haha makes sense

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

Under this definition, I believe a blitz primary has already begun: "A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field."

Democratic Blitz primary?

Shayku

1 year ago

So propose a resolution.

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

Under this definition, I believe a blitz primary has already begun: "A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field."

Democratic Nominee 2024

Shayku

1 year ago

Yea, but like Newsom, she said she wouldn't run against Harris. And like Newsom, she's likely eyeing a clean run in 2028 or 2032.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Gretchen Whitmer is fast emerging as the Dem's most likely candidate. She is young, capable, white, female, & tested. Check out https://x.com/Gretch4Pres for more on $Gretch (CA: 7ay4X2zcHQRSSZd8NtzNwxqzLtwxoCCR)

Democratic Nominee 2024

Shayku

1 year ago

Why would Michelle Obama want to run?

0

halfbaked

1 year ago

Kamala seems more likely even though it makes no sense. No word from Michelle :(

Democratic Nominee 2024

Shayku

1 year ago

Agreed, but there'll be a few swings between 'other' and 'kamala'.

1

rungmc

1 year ago

smart money is pouncing on Other here

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Walz is very underpriced right now

1

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/rep-betty-mccollum-biden-withdraw-tim-walz-vice-president/

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/rep-betty-mccollum-biden-withdraw-tim-walz-vice-president/

1

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Shouldn't there be an 'other' choice here?

1

Major challenger to Biden for Democratic nomination?

Shayku

1 year ago

It resolves to Yes. I don't see how it's ambiguous.

0

adrus

1 year ago

there should be a penalty for ambiguous rules and/or rule bug bounty

Trump wins and picks Dimon for Treasury Secretary?

Shayku

1 year ago

Not sure Trump would want someone that smart around.

0

Biden diagnosed with "medical condition" before DNC?

Shayku

1 year ago

Read the rules - "A serious medical condition is broadly defined as a condition in the severity category of Parkinson's, Dementia, or Cancer."

2

ClockworkMango

1 year ago

Covid def counts, why isn't everyone buying yes he litterally has been diagnosed

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Some of use just enjoy this. You seem bitter.

1

n/a

1 year ago

BIG MONEY $5 BET, watch out, this guy is an insider

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

The problem is having two women on the ticket. It'll turn off a lot of people.

0

Yfdtu6

1 year ago

If Kamala replaces Biden, Whitmer would be by far the best VP pick. She wins Michigan and sets the narrative as the "woman-power" ticket

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Trump's shift to electability points to Rubio - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/us/politics/trump-vp-vance-rubio-burgum.html

1

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Ben Carson was going to tell us, but then he remembered his luggage.

2

goosewrangler

1 year ago

? You guys still haven't heard huh

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

How are you feeling after he didn't announce in Doral?

0

FoxKHTML

1 year ago

Trump on Hannity tonight regarding his VP pick: “We will be announcing soon and everyone will be very happy.. [it’s] somebody that helps you get elected and there’s nothing wrong with that” IT’S OVER VANCE TARDS

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Woo!

0

FoxKHTML

1 year ago

Trump on Hannity tonight regarding his VP pick: “We will be announcing soon and everyone will be very happy.. [it’s] somebody that helps you get elected and there’s nothing wrong with that” IT’S OVER VANCE TARDS

Republican VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

Wow, Rubio is a steal here! He's on the shortlist, and Trump is holding a rally in his hometown one week before the RNC. Trump will benefit from having a latino as a running mate when he puts the focus on immigration policy.

5

Democratic Nominee 2024

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/kamala-harris-democrats-biden/index.html

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Shayku

1 year ago

No love for Josh Shapiro?

0

Democratic Nominee 2024

Shayku

1 year ago

Wish we had Whitmer outside of 'other'

4

Biden interview by Friday?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://civicmedia.us/shows/special-broadcasts/2024/07/04/exclusive-interview-w-president-joe-biden-hour-1

0

Will Democrats publish letter asking Biden to drop out?

Shayku

1 year ago

There's a letter going around, and it's the final push they'll need to change things. A letter is the occasion to both generously thank Biden for his work, and invite him to step aside. It also solves the collective action issue that democrats have. I expect it to come Friday, so that it buries the news cycle of the ABC interview.

0

Will Democrats publish letter asking Biden to drop out?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/house-democrats-biden-debate-00166533

0

Will Democrats publish letter asking Biden to drop out?

Shayku

1 year ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/biden-debate-disaster-will-cost-them-house-and-senate-democrats-fear?embedded-checkout=true

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