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🤺JustPunched
0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
View on
#5
Rank
594
Comments
422
Likes Received
30
Likes Given
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
It's not. It's a Senate speech, not a nomination. You've lost the plot.
0x271226c212c5f76aFDcEd7fbadd197b71bE7...9
5 months ago
From the Senate Congressional Record, "and as Attorney General, he has nominated Matt Gaetz" https://www.congress.gov/118/crec/2024/11/19/170/171/CREC-2024-11-19-pt1-PgS6623-2.pdf
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
That is a Senate speech by Tommy Tuberville lol. Surely you are joking.
SAMURAICAT
5 months ago
What happened on RFK Jr?
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
After Gaetz withdrew his name, traders see a 15% chance of his planned nomination being pulled.
SAMURAICAT
5 months ago
What happened on RFK Jr?
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Shameful dummies letting Car exit his dumb trade with a profit
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Did you post it before you read it?
Car
5 months ago
bye bye Domer https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-industry-jockeys-seats-trumps-promised-council-2024-11-21/
Who will be Trump's Attorney General?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Dang, I really thought Gaetz would get the job
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
DryCat would never
ScienceDog
5 months ago
why did I sell my NO for 1 cent at the last second dude
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
It looked like Yes when it happened, but there was no proof. And I said this at the time. Now we got it.
YoungFatWalletUwU
5 months ago
This is insane, so yes voters have basically hijacked this bet by proposing yes, based on literally one article, from one writer from some sketchy news site, even tho there is no reporting from any respected news outlet, let alone multiple. By the way with anonymous sources? WTF. No one going to dispute this? This is literally a scam.
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I was almost sure this happened, was just waiting for the final proof 👍
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Posting stuff from months ago, smh.
denizz
6 months ago
"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Goodnight. "The U.S. State Department will not withhold arms from Israel, according to State Department officials, a month after the White House sent a letter to Israel stating the Jewish state had 30 days to improve the humanitarian conditions for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip or be subject to an arms embargo."
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The richest guy in the world is not going to become a government employee? That is really shocking
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The alleged "embargo" of bulldozers also says it started months ago. It also seems like it would be hard to disentangle embargo from delay. An embargo is a very serious matter.
denizz
6 months ago
The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Setting aside whether it's an embargo or not, article is from MAY. This market begins in October.
denizz
6 months ago
The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
If we have strong proof that the US conducted an attack, but the US is refusing to confirm it (possible, but I think unlikely), then I think the market should be a YES. But there is no remotely strong proof.
FelipeG
6 months ago
What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I appreciate the mostly honest analysis, but I don't think it is honest to say there is a consensus around Oct 24/25. It is a single source (Houthi media, with no proof), repeated in different places citing Houthi media.
FelipeG
6 months ago
What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Smell ya later
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Anyone who claims they heard God in that clip either needs to be arrested for scamming, or get their hearing checked. Or maybe they're the messiah reborn. One of those 3.
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
wait what is the point of your account? to lose money betting on the most inept countries in the world?
XiJinPing
6 months ago
@truce ty for your donations lol
Ballon d'Or Winner
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
SCAM!!!!!!!
Ballon d'Or Winner
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
If Rodri wins, I will DISPUTE!!!
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Pretty sure this is Yes, but how is it going to be proven?
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Very logical!
Regalia
6 months ago
Reasons why I think Alaska is correct: It was Alaska in 2020 and 2016. DeSantis has a bad rep with Trump and Trump supporters. Alaska is overwhelmingly male and men don't care about Roe V. Wade. Women care a lot about Roe V. Wade and Florida is majority women.
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Yes I agree there is a decently large chance that they attack again, which is why the market is so high!
EmpirePending
6 months ago
guys ive just come across this market i had/have no position, but theres countless news articles saying it happened so what's going on with this?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
How is it "mostly" if they invented it?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
So the CNN report is blatantly made up?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
He made it up
MeisterOd
6 months ago
BBC News Headline: Not a Single Gram of Israeli Gunpowder Has Fallen on Iraqi Soil Date: October 27, 2024 - 12:00 UTC The Iraqi government has reiterated its commitment to ensuring the security of its territory, stating that no Israeli military gunpowder or munitions have fallen on any part of Iraq. This announcement comes as part of the government's efforts to address concerns regarding Iraq's defense capabilities and the security situation in the region. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense emphasized its ongoing efforts to maintain peace and stability on an international scale. The country continues to prioritize strengthening its border security and being prepared for external threats through international cooperation. Moreover, officials indicated that they are closely monitoring ongoing conflicts and political developments in the region, assuring that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the safety of the Iraqi people. Iraq aims to enhance its relationships with neighboring countries and work towards stability. This situation is viewed as part of broader changes in Iraq's internal security and defense policies. The government is focused on gaining international support to bolster the country’s security.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Why are you guys making stuff up?
MeisterOd
6 months ago
BBC News Headline: Not a Single Gram of Israeli Gunpowder Has Fallen on Iraqi Soil Date: October 27, 2024 - 12:00 UTC The Iraqi government has reiterated its commitment to ensuring the security of its territory, stating that no Israeli military gunpowder or munitions have fallen on any part of Iraq. This announcement comes as part of the government's efforts to address concerns regarding Iraq's defense capabilities and the security situation in the region. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense emphasized its ongoing efforts to maintain peace and stability on an international scale. The country continues to prioritize strengthening its border security and being prepared for external threats through international cooperation. Moreover, officials indicated that they are closely monitoring ongoing conflicts and political developments in the region, assuring that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the safety of the Iraqi people. Iraq aims to enhance its relationships with neighboring countries and work towards stability. This situation is viewed as part of broader changes in Iraq's internal security and defense policies. The government is focused on gaining international support to bolster the country’s security.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
So the CNN report is blatantly made up?
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
If they attacked, Centcom will confirm that they attacked.
EmpirePending
6 months ago
guys ive just come across this market i had/have no position, but theres countless news articles saying it happened so what's going on with this?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Get in losers, we're losing
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I imagine this will be the last comment posted here, so I just want to say it was a lot of fun. I will see y'all on the next market!
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Nice!
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
If y'all can please hurry up and solve your collective psychosis and take this to 99.9, that'd be great. Otherwise the most you're doing is forcing all of us to wait for 8:05pm to get a payout.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1XgFsitnQw
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Just posting again -- 1. The vote is already over, Yes has reached a consensus and is guaranteed to win. You can check this yourself at vote.uma.xyz and clicking on this market. 2. This will pay out as Yes around 5 minutes after the "Final Review" timer above the comments runs out. 3. Many No holders are lying to you on purpose that Polymarket has overturned a UMA vote. It has never happened before ever, and it certainly will not happen here.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
1. The vote is already over, Yes has reached a consensus and is guaranteed to win. You can check this yourself at vote.uma.xyz and clicking on this market. 2. This will pay out as Yes around 5 minutes after the "Final Review" timer above the comments runs out. 3. Many No holders are lying to you on purpose that Polymarket has overturned a UMA vote. It has never happened before ever, and it certainly will not happen here.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Well the one positive to come out of this is there are apparently a lot of Russians on No. It's never a bad thing when Russian drunks lose more money and send it to other countries.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
No there has not. Someone lied to you.
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The "Yes" side has already reached a consensus and is now guaranteed to win if you check vote.uma.xyz (click on the vote and you can see the results so far). See the timer that says final review on this page? No will pay out as 0 about 5 minutes after that ends. This cannot be stopped. I'm sorry that y'all disagree with the result, but it's over.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
No thanks. I think it's really bad what is happening here. They are deluding themselves.
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The "Yes" side has already reached a consensus and is now guaranteed to win if you check vote.uma.xyz (click on the vote and you can see the results so far). See the timer that says final review on this page? No will pay out as 0 about 5 minutes after that ends. This cannot be stopped. I'm sorry that y'all disagree with the result, but it's over.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The "Yes" side has already reached a consensus and is now guaranteed to win if you check vote.uma.xyz (click on the vote and you can see the results so far). See the timer that says final review on this page? No will pay out as 0 about 5 minutes after that ends. This cannot be stopped. I'm sorry that y'all disagree with the result, but it's over.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
It's important to me that ppl understand what is happening
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Why are you weirdos so obsessed with losing money?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The vote is over, No can't win.
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Why are you weirdos so obsessed with losing money?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Yes will pay out in exactly 13 hours and 45 minutes
Nosensei
6 months ago
Why are people buying “Yes” at these prices for a disputed outcome lol. Risk $100 for $1 is not a good ROI lol
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Why are you weirdos so obsessed with losing money?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I've got gadgets and gizmos aplenty.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I'm tired of rooting for the Decepticons, they always lose. I am switching to Autobots. And that is OFFICIAL.
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I'm thinking of switching sides
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
I'm thinking of switching sides
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
FYI to No holders, there is an alternate and easier way to bet No on this. So let's say you have $100 that you want to put on No, instead of buying the shares in this market, what you have to do is turn off your phone and computer, take the $100 from your wallet, and put it directly into the trash.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
It's a compelling argument at first, but according to the gold paper, an LLC Trump controls will have a 22.5 percent ownership stake and will receive the majority of fee revenue. That definitely would make it his coin.
SureBet745
6 months ago
This cant resolve to yes if the title is: "Will Trump launch a coin before the election?". He didn't. Someome licensed his brand name.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
KEEP PUSHING!!!!
# of named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
It's a dumb bet, but dumb bets are very fun
Ylescaps
7 months ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season I have no idea why anyone is betting less than 14 , literally all forecasting systems predict 17+
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Scam.
AlfredVanderbilt
6 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/DefiantPress/status/1844068113450762423.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Imagine how braindead you have to be to think anything these idiots are saying is important
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Wow, they have added NBA legend Luol Deng to the WLFI team. That's huge.
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
"or a consensus of credible reporting"
0xCA5b97fF74548bD6b1a9eebCCc00aDc4178fB1aC-1726662322581
6 months ago
What if they destroy installations in Iran, but don't admit it?
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Whatever Zach has is contagious I guess
JakeAirdropFarm
7 months ago
its because you don't need all 7 to win. You need maybe 4, and there are many combinations of those 4. Whereas to win all 7 there is only one combination to get you there, so it's less likely than either of them winning. In fact it's so unlikely that either one of these candidates wins all 7 states that I think the market is severely mispriced and I am nearly full porting on No here. No should be trading at 90 cents minimum
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
You are having trouble with probabilities. Maybe plug your question into ChatGPT and it'll teach you rudimentary stats.
Zach21z
7 months ago
The inconsistencies among these betting questions are funny. How can Kamala Harris have a 45% chance of winning the election, but according to this, Kamala or Trump have a 35% chance of winning every swing state (which most people believe Trump will win)? If Trump wins all of these, then Kamala has a 0% chance of winning, not 45%
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
John McCain would be very proud of the bomb Iran bonders.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
holy shit, they did it
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yawn.
CYQ
7 months ago
Nothing ever happens. Nothing happened yesterday and nothing will happen today
Will there be another debate?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The X spaces have gone so well so far, that seems like the best place for them to make their final message to hundreds of millions of voters. The technology is reliable and proven.
Matter15
7 months ago
Trump is a narcissist and Kamala likes making a fool out of herself, there will be another debate, more than likely an x spaces debate
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
1. Relax. Switch to decaf. This is not that serious. 2. Trump had already launched NFTs prior to this market. There was a clarification in June saying tokens launched before the market would count. What kind of idiot would think that a market would be created that was already Yes many months prior?
Mountainman
7 months ago
An NFT is a token. If you don't know that you should try this thing called "Google" it can help you figure it out. Furthermore, we are past that now, so no need to bring it up, unless you are trying to confuse people. We now have something even slow adults like yourself consider a token.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
No offense, but I think only an insane person would think that the NFTs should count
Lawyered.eth
7 months ago
I capitulated due to the Oct 15th possible drop date. I did not expect that (and still think it may just be to cash grab, and delay launch).. I stick to my thesis, though. The following are facts. 1) This is poorly written. 2) If WLFI drops a token, trump is probably "involved" on a balance of probabilities. 3) the nft's ought not to be included, logically speaking 4) mountainmain is a bad faith actor, moreso than anyone else on this board
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Not sure what to tell you, you posted a bunch of pumping comments and then sold a large share of Yes. Your actions speak for itself.
Car
7 months ago
Everytime the price goes up, JustKen appears and starts panicking in the comments xD
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I didn't say it had anything to do with anything, it's just funny.
Mountainman
7 months ago
Oh look, the #1 scammer on this site posting something that has absolutely nothing to do with the market resolution.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Really funny, just a bunch of protocols and buzzwords and DeFi over and over again.
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
https://medium.com/@wlfi/world-liberty-financial-seeks-to-revolutionize-finance-with-a-defi-protocol-that-will-be-built-for-3ec1f34ae7ac
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
https://medium.com/@wlfi/world-liberty-financial-seeks-to-revolutionize-finance-with-a-defi-protocol-that-will-be-built-for-3ec1f34ae7ac
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Smh
Car
7 months ago
Token sale starting next week
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm flying a plane over the storm right now I only measured 108 mph.
n/a
7 months ago
justscam rn: nah id rigg
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yes
OrangeCat
7 months ago
Votix is scam? right?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Lol what a scam from IPSOS
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Dav Kleiman invented Bitcoin and then became an NFL reporter
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
And if you are one of the people who say "it's definitely not rosa parks, that is impossible", you might be a racist.
gun
7 months ago
unpopular opinion but i think rosa parks is satoshi
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yes holders spamming the comment section instead of buying, never a good sign lol.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This is a travesty
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
These are two different markets. That market requires troops entering. This market requires an invasion intent on control. Through the conclusion of the market on September 30th at midnight, there was no evidence of anything besides targeted raids. This is the opposite of trying to control an area, it is in fact leaving immediately.
zynyz
7 months ago
"Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" Resolved Yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This information is not contradictory, it's the movement of troops and the passage of time. Israel moved in more forcefully on October 2nd.
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
zynyz
7 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I think they voted for the actual truthful outcome. I've made that clear from the outset. Yes holders ignored the information
n/a
7 months ago
So you’re clear it has nothing to do with what the actual truthful outcome is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
For over a year, my username on this site was "UMA Is A Global Terror Network." For a lot of the reasons that you are pointing out now. Be that as it may, this was not really a uma issue, this was a yes holder issue.
McLarry
7 months ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
You're right, I didn't specifically lay out the process. In the past, I have been very critical of how concentrated the uma token is and how opaque the voting process is.
McLarry
7 months ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The point is that nobody rigged it, and the result was predictable. What happened was, and I posted this also quite often, is that the yes holders only listen to other yesholders. It resulted in catastrophic confirmation bias, driving the price higher on bad information. And then it was becoming clear that the yes holders who were too stubborn to sell even as the price skyrocketed, were going to be very pissed off once reality set in.
zynyz
7 months ago
JustKen: Guys we rigged it a long time ago, your fault for still thinking its not rigged
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I feel like I was very clear and consistent and posted quite often that yes was very likely to lose. Before the votes were revealed, yes was trading at $0.60 for hours
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
They determined that the invasion started around October 2nd, which matches reality.
zynyz
7 months ago
hard to take a market serious that votes reverse in "in september" and "before November" market
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Can you help me understand this one? The yes side had more whales.
Carlossss
7 months ago
I think this vote is a turning point for PolyMarket, succumb to the whales or give an image of impartiality and credibility
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Never understood this one. A buffer zone would imply no control by either side.
mona.lisa
7 months ago
It has to go 'yes'. Israel explicitly spoke of forming a buffer zone out of Lebanese territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Here's the plan, we get the Yes price back to 70c. UMA will be forced to side with us.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I don't reveal until the end, otherwise that is unfair.
PolyPollUser
7 months ago
JustKen, fhantombets, and their buddies ran a psyop campaign to reveal all their votes as soon as possible, and they could only muster 700k votes 🤣 🤣. Poor "whales" . The No's have no chance.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Chad needs to be drug-tested before he makes any bets
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
He DMs voters behind the scenes and tries to get them to vote with him
Fredi9999WASP🐝
7 months ago
Imagine already knowing that domer will "manipluate the markets" and still staying on yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The only person that I'm aware of that attempts to manipulate markets is AEnews. I am sure you'll change your mind about manipulating a market when you hear that. He is currently trying to manipulate it in favor of Yes.
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Good song!
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
This one's for our little buddy Domer. We know what you did. We all saw it. Bad Domer! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSEhgxihjm4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
McLarry
7 months ago
Domer has the problem that if No were to win, that would massively damage Polymarkt's reputation, apart from his own. This will be heard here for months to come, especially if the last fool sees the commencement of the invasion as such in retrospect. He would prefer the price to collapse now because people have supposedly come to the realization that no is right.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
https://i.ibb.co/CKmgjDj/nELMT2q.png
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Are you joking or being serious? This market was trading at $0.75 for yes, pumped up by Chad, when UMA voted against Yess
McLarry
7 months ago
Serious question (this time really): Has there ever been a dispute where the significantly more expensive side lost? In the disputes I've seen so far, it has always been the case that people bought extremely cheap shares and wanted to push their investment 20x, 50x, or even higher
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
i don't like having any shares at all during UMA votes dude
Car
7 months ago
you should buy more NOs actually. This price is too good to not to!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
source: guy who has dealt with 10,000 UMA votes
sleepyjoesleeper
7 months ago
source: just trust me
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Why is already adjuticated in quotes? It was already adjuticated lol.
denizz
7 months ago
The final review is winnable for YES because the facts are on our side. But we need to make our case. There is a lot of kneejerk resistance on the discord to going from "too soon" to "yes", because it was "already adjudicated".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This is delusional, but its not any more delusional than any of the other delusional arguments.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
October 1st, IDF statement saying "Operation Northern Arrows will continue according to situational assessment". This statement is referencing the operation of the previous night, the events which happened within the Sept 30th timeframe eastern time. For yes to trigger, i believe we simply need to show that the events of October 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc are a continuation of Operation Northern Arrows which began on September 30th at the latest, which is why the market started moving so much. The no camp wants to argue basically that operation northern arrows isnt a thing, or somehow the events of late September 30th were separate from Operation Northern arrows, which we have established by now isnt true and so has wide media consensus. The previous P4 vote was to establish this clarity, which has now been achieved. P2 Yes. https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
If Chad wasn't distorting the price, where would this be trading, 8c?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
After seeing the movie Megalopolis and becoming a much smarter person, I am now even more certain that this is No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This price is crazy, man 😂
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
With such unanimous coverage, some videos of this invasion should be readily available. Thus far we've seen a Fox News guy talk about hiking through the woods, and then leaving again back to Israel.
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
By 8:59 PM ET, September 30th, Reuters, The Guardian, Forbes, The Telegraph, NPR, the Independent, the BBC, The Times of Israel, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail, Al Jazeera, and many more ALL confirmed the invasion. Both Israel, and the IDF then confirmed the invasion within the timeframe specified in the rules. Israel had initially asked for a media blackout, but had to confirm given the flood of media reports. THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO RETRACTIONS!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Were you in a cave when this also happened last time and they all got BTFO?
aldynspeedruns
7 months ago
i am insane, im a fish, there's no liquidity, nobody's buying NO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
You care more about my P&L than I do. I'm just a kid having fun out here.
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
7 months ago
please ask chatgpt for copium
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Waste of money tbh
Otter-KING
7 months ago
Is someone disputing?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The market was at 75c yesterday and I said people were nuts to price it like that. I think 23% is equally nuts given UMA was nearly unanimous.
Fredi9999WASP🐝
7 months ago
All what you trying to do here is trying to push No prices to get out early. "extremely, extremely likely" refers to at least 23% losing chances for JustKen, sure.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
People bet that Israel was invading, it was an assumption that they would behave like they did in Gaza, going in with thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks/vehicles. That didn't happen. The prediction was wrong, and now you're trying to get bailed out.
McLarry
7 months ago
So you're not an opera singer because you can't sing (except here in the comments, you sing a lot), you luckily binked 8th place in the WSOP and act like consistently beating MTTS/CGs isn't significantly more challenging and now you're focusing on ripping off little people who put a few dollars on bets and are stupid enough to think they'll get paid out when the event happens. INTERESTING
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Looks like it's 70% over for the Walz holders atm.
Tac1776
7 months ago
Msnbc,cbs,politico, fox has called cance the winner. Everywhere u look online says vance won. Its over gor the walz holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Reminder that the crucial piece of information is from the UN, who said on October 1st: "The information [the UN peacekeepers] have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.
Justifax
7 months ago
This video is referencing 'minutes after the order was given' .. I've been told that this is Sept 30th. https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19 If anyone has better proof that this is from Sept 30th, I'd appreciate it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Thank you.
Phoenix777
7 months ago
a real kind person...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
As a young boy, I hoped to one day grow up to an opera singer. That got derailed with a freak accident with a pelican a number of years ago, and I briefly entered seminary school, before dropping that and becoming a poker player. After coming in 8th place in the WSOP main event, I retired from poker and became a Polymarket trader full time. Let me know if you require any other explanation.
n/a
7 months ago
Explain yourself justken
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm sorry that you don't think 54k is enough exposure. It's not impossible to go Yes. I am just trying to set expectations given the number of pumpers in here shilling nearly hopeless Yes, including yourself.
Fredi9999WASP🐝
7 months ago
Buy more then, why are you sitting at 54k
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Voting No was not an option. The market was proposed before the end-time, so it cannot go No.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
7 months ago
https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Aye aye cap'n
McLarry
7 months ago
I see myself a bit like the captain of the Titanic. It's an honor to go down with my Yes Shares. Better than winning without decency.
How many viewers will the VP debate get?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Snooze fest
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
it should be out by the end of December
Clenc
7 months ago
when we will have the ipsos poll ?
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
When Walz called JD Vance a "simp" is that a slur or not?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
And u believe the MSM lies????
PokerBrat
7 months ago
Twitter is saying vance won
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Vance's eyeliner started run right at the end there, hopefully he cleans it up during the commercial break
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
N-word, M-word, S-word, T-word, W-word, A-word, L-word, U-word, E-word, R-word, B-word, V-word, and there's about a dozen more.
n/a
7 months ago
Define a list of included slurs.
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I heard debate, played it for other people who all heard debate.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
It's a tough scene for Yes when the UN, the IDF, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese army all say the same thing
Ferguson,Turd
7 months ago
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed on Tuesday for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to be respected, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. "An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs," Dujarric said in a statement, adding that Guterres spoke with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati earlier on Tuesday, telling him the U.N. was ready to help those in need. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad "The Secretary-General will continue his contacts, and his representatives on the ground will also continue their efforts to de-escalate the situation," Dujarric said. He later told reporters at a briefing that U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, had seen sporadic incursions by the Israeli military. "The information they have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm using Gaza as my guidepost. There, the IDF clearly invaded with a large occupying force. Here, it's very unclear what is happening, and all reporting indicating they are entering, doing a raid, and leaving again. If you have evidence that they entered and are staying to try to control territory, then I would agree with you that the market should be a yes. Is there evidence for that?
McLarry
7 months ago
Just to be clear, and so there's no flip afterward, if there are Israeli troops in Lebanon right now, then this market is a yes, right Ken? Not that you're looking for another narrative change later
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1290308846543179802
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
One of the downsides of using an AI is that you can guide it to the answer that you want. This is exactly what you did in that screenshot. Do you have any examples where you were unbiased?
Car
7 months ago
I just did: https://chatgpt.com/share/66faa6c9-c678-800a-97c0-46ad611ced89
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
To me, this is now fairly conclusive that the special forces are in there for recond, so then it becomes a question of whether recon counts as "combat operations." It seems 50 Pence has an extremely strong opinion on this question!
Car
7 months ago
"Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Lol, that's funny but not sure that is very compelling. You don't want a "v" in there at all if you want No to win.
HighRoller
7 months ago
Raids are PvE, not PvP. No combat operations to be seen here.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
It's uncanny how much ChatGPT and I agree on disputes lol
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.
ThisIsSparta
7 months ago
Not only this was not combat operation, they didn't even mention the EXACT date. Now seriously, is this a joke? Do you see any troops right now in Lebanon? This Pence mfer should pay for his theft.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm a bit confused what the evidence for Yes is tbh
ThisIsSparta
7 months ago
lol, this market should be resolved as No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
its gizmodude, a known nutcase.
nicekitty
7 months ago
anyone buying 5 shares to comment as often as you is a red herring
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
To me this is less likely here because there isn't a hostage scenario. But the short answer is that the intention would be to soften up the enemy and make sure when your major troops enter, they encounter as little resistance as possible. So hypotheticaly, they go in and kill some Hezbollah operatives in a town or something and then leave. Here is a link to the small raids from last year -- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-mounts-limited-gaza-ground-raids-puts-hostage-number-222-2023-10-23/
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
Can you link the "small raids not counting" bets? Why would Israel enter; but not with the intention to control?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
As far as the nutcases spamming in here, if the IDF conducts small raids in Lebanon where they enter and leave, this market will be NO and the troops enter market will be YES. If they start a ground offensive, this market will be YES. We went through this last year in Gaza with small scale missions not counting.
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
OOPS! NASA mistakenly sent the Starliner back up instead of SpaceX Dragon, and now they're trapped again. Dang. Bad luck.
birdnest
7 months ago
nasa astronauts coming home!
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm not sure we can trust hezbollah's word, they are a terrorist organization
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
This is NOT over. Hezbollah is attempting to locate his limbs, glue him back together, and reanimate him.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Please do not engage with this dumbass lol. His argument is that Hezbollah now controls Northern Israel because they're bombing it and civilians have been displaced.
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Pretty sure the Israelis killed the worms as well
SPYontheQs
7 months ago
He's worm food
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Hezbollah planned for this, and just unveiled MechaNasrallah. He's half robot!
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
In the event of Nasrallah's passing, the next in line to lead Hezbollah is Rashida Tlaib.
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Many are saying this!
Car
7 months ago
JustKen, the worst trader ever.
Will there be another debate?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Calling Puck "news" is kind of interesting, I guess.
CAPNCOOK
7 months ago
From a Puck News article today (it's behind a paywall): "Meanwhile Trump also remains fixated on the aftermath of his debate with Harris, and the taunting, open invitation from her camp for a rematch. Indeed, despite Trump's public proclamations that he's through with debating, having already "won the debate" in his own mind, the debate debate is not over inside Mar-A-Lago. Numerous Republican allies have been pushing for a do-over, especially after Harris accepted a CNN invite for an October face-off. And Trump appears to be doubting his initial instinct to walk away from the battlefield. I'm told that Trump is back to asking advisors if he should reconsider. The vice presidential debate is on Tuesday, and some people around the former president suspect that it will be hard for him to let J.D. Vance to have the last word on the debate stage. "If it's so boring, or if J.D. loses, Trump may want to have another lick" said one of his advisors.
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
He's going to meet him and KIDNAP HIM.
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
They call him Lyin' Don. He holds the Bible high and he lies and he lies.
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
DIdn't think I owned any shares, but looks like I have 500 shares of No. I think its No (so far) tbh.
Helene landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
we love Helene!
Sakuya
7 months ago
what a cute and funny storm
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
its still possible but unlikely
Kaelos
7 months ago
Is it really ended ? Neither CZ and $EIGEN are out, there's still a chance ?
NFL Thursday
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Let's bet on this shit!!!!
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
going with 80% odds this post was written by an AI bot
WhaleHunter
7 months ago
This market is not about predicting gender, but rather about whether Huobi will issue an announcement before September 30th. I believe resolving this as a 50-50 split is inappropriate because it deviates from the market's original intent, is misleading, and could even cause those who guessed correctly to lose money. If Huobi does not issue an announcement, the funds should be returned to the participants.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Lol Russia
Will Beeple's Everyday feature SBF and Diddy today?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Obvious
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Oof. Big loss for me.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Kaplan sounds like he wants to adopt her.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Wow this just took a very political turn from Caroline Ellison: "If I go to jail, I will have to undergo a sex change by order of Kamala Harris."
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Good luck gents, we'll see how it goes
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
一个男人。当然!
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
OH GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jayminho
7 months ago
JUSTKEN IS OFFLOADING his “NO”
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
That's a big bet, good luck!
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
Just because Car is a scammer, doesn't mean Caroline is one as well. Don't put the wrong person in jail!
Walz and Vance shake hands at first debate?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
What if they briefly touch fingers, but Walz pulls his hand away and brushes the side of his hair down and says "Gotcha"
Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
EZ D
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yeah, 5 months ago
debased
7 months ago
one day miss in 3 months or so bet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
[All new information]: Wow, this confirms my bet is great.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
State of Emergency declared for all of Israel
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Horrible bet that was bailed out
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Great time to invade with their forces weary and stretched thin, low global support, and high aggression from its neighbors.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Scared of your own shadow, buddy?
XiJinPing
7 months ago
Just sold all my NO... this looks scary... spiraling out of control fast, and it's not even October yet
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I'm the market maker
TCA
7 months ago
maybe its the market maker
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
So don't trade it
Justifax
7 months ago
This market is a dispute magnet. Israel will feint into Lebanon, Hezbollah will claim it, and people will dispute.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Correct
babendums
7 months ago
Time served resolves to "no prison time" yes, correct?
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I ain't afraid of no NOAA, bring them on
smfjaw
7 months ago
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Hold the phone...WAIT A MINUTE....another colossal Russian failure? There must be a mistake.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
No
JustBen
7 months ago
does nft count?
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
He is appealing to the Supreme Court, and if that doesn't work, he'll go straight to the Pope himself.
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
LOCK HIM UP
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Fingers crossed.
dreamin
7 months ago
https://x.com/RenzoGov/status/1835776164272767338
Who will the Teamsters endorse?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Ez
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Big time credit to me for constantly warning the 25bp holders that they were making a bad bet. I tried!!!
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yes.
Remontada
7 months ago
Domer, can we laugh just at ZionLion? Is that okay?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Smell ya later.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
gl guys, nobody is allowed to laugh at either side that loses (except for the No Cut losers)
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Oh the biggest market maker on the site is market making?
PunishedCK
7 months ago
Justken is selling off his 50bps clip and fudding 25 bps at the same time. Take that as you will 50 bps bros.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
25bp holders close your eyes and ears for this truth bomb: 1-month T-bills currently pricing 50bp at 95% odds.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Why are you weirdos shuffling to 25bp?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
How do you plan to spen your winnings?
BellyGiggles
7 months ago
where is bro basedboi
Blonde Broker vs Ashley
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The girl who was 50 pounds heavier than the other was only at 60c to win lmao.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Bonds pricing 50bp at over 90% lol.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
They bought millions of dollars of No in "No Change", and converted them to Yes shares. batman is basically risking $2.2m to win $33k.
PBet
7 months ago
Some of you have ridiculous high amounts in the 50/25 decrease. Even if you have bought both so they cancel each other out, why do you tie up thousands of dollars on this website?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Lol
VERTIX
7 months ago
Powell never said that will cut rates today on this meeting. He only said that the time has come that's all
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
sadly Yatsen and kiwi both too scared to take a position
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The ole switcheroo.
fungiy
7 months ago
rate hike not rate cut gg
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Inflation is out of control, either pause or raise rates
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
We're so back, it's so over, we're so back, it's so over
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Anyone know how to put this guy on ignore?
🪦🦁🪦
7 months ago
like i said. the banks that liquidated forst on Archegos, stole the Alpha illegally from the rest of the losing banks. and made Credit Suisse to collapse also, unintentionally. or intentionally maybe too.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Good game 25bps
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Damn, so many people still in denial
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Wow, I took massive profits on stupid Trump shit? That's craaaazy.
itsok
7 months ago
You just bought 10k yes...
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
What's that? People on the other side of my bet got BTFO? You're telling me now for the first time.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
One thing that Yes still can hang their hat on is that the Trumps have never overpromised and underdelivered in their lives.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Coin deployment imminent.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
0 bp is down over 10% today (1.7 to 1.5)
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
You're welcome!
Lopgft
7 months ago
Thanks for the free money
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Interesting
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Called it, he voted for Trump in 2016 lmao
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Owning an AK47 is more in line with a Trump supporter
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
It's amazing that the price changes leads me to want to buy a different side, its almost like these are dynamic unrepeatable events with no fixed pricing
Car
7 months ago
so you are saying "Lock her up" then getting filled on NO, because people that follow you, fill your orders based on your comment. Got it.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The point of a 50bp cut is to accelerate the path back to neutral, which is where you want rates to be in an economy that is doing just fine.
0xe0f3208b94bBD4D1a3dEe319D4d574747297D82
7 months ago
Fed: "The economy is doing very well. No signs of any weakness"...... Also fed: "We are going to do a 50bps decrease as our first cut"
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
FYI I pointed out to Polymarket that they screwed up. Polymarket rarely fixes these things after clarifications. I agree with you. They switched the market under your feet. Not sure it'll be fixed either.
Lucky31
8 months ago
how can we dispute this market
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Just noticed the clarification lol. That is total bullshit. Wtf? Lol.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
If we all hold our hands and BELIEVE, we can make 50bp happen
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
NO CUTS!!!
Petro1
8 months ago
they're not cutting it people...
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
It's all a scam, the Fed isn't even real. BIDEN!!!!!
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Lock her up
DOTA 2: The International Champions
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
don't be an idiot dude, its a typo
0x33cf2b9183b5fB0ABAA4f809409E2Aa48BaEd71b-1722896857982
8 months ago
technically if Gaimin wins they would be "other" right? xD
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Yawn. Prediction market resolves a market to "vibes" again.
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
UMA is one of the dumbest products ever invented, and it barely works. Sorry you're dealing with that.
0x83A5D6E94e3Cec7b6ee8570F0b06B9F43a8240Ce-1720411004722
8 months ago
Annoying. I've got 750 usdc on polygon in my wallet, wallets connected, still days insufficient balance. Wtf
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
The mics were both muted and unmuted while the other candidate is speaking, so how does this resolve...?
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
It was reported before the debate that they would keep the markets unmuted it if they thought something newsworthy might be said
SusanWarren,HR
8 months ago
For many of the times though the microphones are demonstrably muted. How should this resolve?
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
her mic was 10000% unmuted there lol
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
something went a little wrong early on but it ended up being okay, lost a few bucks on that
asdf4
8 months ago
He bought yes too. He curretly holds a net 4 yes. Probably some strategy I don't understand.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Hey dummy, you've found the most frictionless place on the planet to bet on interest rates.
Kdot86
8 months ago
This is a funny market. There are a million ways to bet on interest rates with way less friction than a crypto exchange. This place is 100% people insider trading ex cons lol
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
What can I say, I liked Inside Out 2
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Interesting attempt
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
This won't work 99% of the time, and def will never work when there is a picture of the player attached to the market.
n/a
8 months ago
I have no idea how Polymarket treats typos in rules and how strict they are… but “Caitlyn Clark” is not a player in the wnba and cannot win. “Caitlin
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Global warming is fake and so are hurricanes
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Durov was released from prison into a police car, and then released from the police car into a new cell.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
So many comments
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Jeesh, that sucked being on Team No for a minute there, back on the side of the good guys.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
To be honest, I have no idea what is happening
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
So easy. Good guys win, bad guys lose.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Shout out to my other Yes bros. Team No is full of incels.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
He should be free, TBD if they do it
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
UMA hard at work bungling something else
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
If that happens, I will lose a lot and you will make a lot so I am rooting against that
truthteller
8 months ago
Barash added that since the Biden administration’s review of marijuana has been expedited at every stage, the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform is optimistic the proposed rule will be finalized this year.
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Last one out please turn off the lights
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Rules: If Harris broadly states she agrees with Biden's policy proposals, and one of Biden's policy proposals is to tax unrealized gains, it will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - she must explicitly support the specific proposal.
Butch09
8 months ago
Isn't this market pretty much ready to be resolved? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-supports-tax-unrealized-193900073.html
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
If people are buying or selling based on inane comments, they have larger problems in their life.
Car
8 months ago
now they are all gonna sell because of your comment. a few minute ago the bought at 8ct because of your comment. when do you realise it?
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
You really should be banned
Car
8 months ago
REKT no holders
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Bad guys winning (for now)
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I have PTSD from losing so much on the wrongfully expired ones.
sharks
8 months ago
Buy some more big man!
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Good guys winning (so far).
Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
the madman won't stop!
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
The market expires when marijuana is rescheduled. If it's not rescheduled for whatever reason (lawsuits, waiting period, whatever), it can't expire yes yet.
CheerfulPessimist
8 months ago
Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
For whatever it's worth, I gave ChatGPT the news article and the rules of the market, and it indicated that CZ was still incarcerated.
Sit
8 months ago
why has it not been resolved then?
Will RFK drop out before November?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Well that was a scam lol.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Imho this was a clear No and UMA likely would've voted it No if it was disputed, and the clarification is ridiculous
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Can you cite a single example of a politician who was dropping out who said "I encourage you to vote for me"?
@Joshua
8 months ago
Suspending, withdrawing, exiting, call it what you like. All the same, obviously a Yes IMO.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Ukrainain control continues to expand lol. Moscow wen?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I think it should be Yes, but this seems like a very dumb fight so I don't want to get too involved lol.
Fred19999
8 months ago
Should we be worried that JustKam whale has taken up position on the Yes side?
Kamala or Trump convention speech gets more viewers?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
...?
CaptainMoneybags
8 months ago
Republicans have families so less TV's per person
Will George Bush speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
It could definitely happen, but hopefully not
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Is Beyonce a Trump supporter or a Kamala supporter?
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Update on today's protest -- they are sitting in lawn chairs, hanging out and chatting -- https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1826664309352718355
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
i don't know anything about this, but it seems like they're pretending to be mad and failing on purpose in order for $$$
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
They were so close to winning, dang.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
These protesters are proactively nowhere near the DNC. They made that choice on purpose. They're in fact at a different and specific place (the Isareli consulate) protesting. How is this even a debate...?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
WE'RE BACK.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
So "behind enemy lines" is just...everywhere?
DiversifyYoBonds
8 months ago
Any protest by those with behind enemy lines are publicly stated to be protesting the DNC
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
NOT ENOUGH
0x54A598106e0467DaCc1A4cEd3909582f72aAEe3D-1723093936269
8 months ago
How many tweets now ?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Why are you so obsessed with me?
New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
So is your mother
n/a
8 months ago
Trump overpriced
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Gotcha, well I didn't personally hear it. If the market didn't react, seems like it might be a tough sell.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
He literally didnt say Walls correct one time
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Didn't hear any mispronunciations, I am shocked. He said like 80 names lol.
Biden DNC Speech: O/U 30 minutes?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
This was a really close one
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Neo-Nazi -- DING
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
What'd he say?
bbman1214
8 months ago
Is Joey? a wrong name?
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Anyone who owns yes on alley cat needs their head examined
Will Biden finish his term?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Drop out! Drop out!
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Just singing a song, I think that would be a No for me. If they intro'ed the song or said something after the song, like "Make sure y'all support Kamala out there" (a few sentences like that) then I think the totality of what occurred (song + remarks) would be the equivalent of a speech.
BedardiRaja
8 months ago
Ok but if Charli or Taylor just perform their songs, would it be considered as speech?
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Will Michelle attempt to wrest the nomination away from Kamala if she gives a speech?
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I'm right behind him, I have a Key West shirt on
BigMike11
8 months ago
Curious what feed people are watching?
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Looks like Trump bought no in Illegal Immigrants
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
More like 20+ times
Eyebrows
8 months ago
Shoulda had a debate 5+ times market it looks like
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Boom! Drill baby drill pays out TWICE!
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
MYVAG -- Make Your Venezuela Again Great
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
This nerd better mention crypto.
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
At least you still have your cat
Catlover255
8 months ago
I got liquidated
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
That was it, final tweet for the week. Congrats to all 3 holders. See you next Saturday.
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Two good punch lines, now he is done for the week.
diddy
8 months ago
Guys it’s insane spending so much money on +10, he can’t put up so many ads and overshadowed the previous good punch lines
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I was surprised as well, I think it means Kamala is in trouble.
CFTC
8 months ago
What?
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I was just talking to a source with very close knowledge of the DNC inner workings and process. They told me, that without a shadow of a doubt, that you should always try to promote a free retreater after a knockout so you have the option of easily retreating into your attacker if you draw the resources you need or a meat shield if you don't.
What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I accidentally slept through this and a lot of people got free money. Nonetheless, looks like I made around $1k on this market. Lol. Maybe that's the key.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Here's something wild I just learned, you can't spell "Holy shit what an embarrasment" without at least a few letters from the word Russia
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
please do not tell him how it is possible, thank you.
gregus
8 months ago
1m possible but not likely
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Lol, thanks for reminding me
yoonmarketenjoyer
8 months ago
man i have to stop copying domer in these markets
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Please get a clue man.
StevenBonnell
8 months ago
lol justkam whale is buying up no's for fire up. what a snake
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I don't have to google it, because he also said "Fire."
Timmy121
8 months ago
fired-up is a compound word. Google it.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Total lie. He said fire.
BuckMySalls
8 months ago
He said fired up, not referring to the act of dismissing an employee. It was referring to being animated, can't remember the context in this ramblemageddon. But according to the rules, this is a No.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Please do not be pulled in by the fire scam: "Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market." The other rule only applies to compound words to prevent something like "firestorm" counting. He said "fire."
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
He said fire on its own.
Timmy121
8 months ago
Can anyone confirm he said "fired" on it's own - not "fired-up"?
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
The over/under on Inflation was 80 mentions, and he is at 98 so far.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
basis points
evidence
8 months ago
what is bps
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Other is literally any other movie.
singa
9 months ago
What is the "Other" and why is it at 7% ?
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Why are you so mad?
mewmew1
9 months ago
clown
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Praying that I lose money on this one.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Moron. No offense.
TheOneB
9 months ago
Trump Jr has continously hinted at a Trump crypto currency. I could see it being announced here
Iran military response by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Don't pump using my position you clown.
Car
9 months ago
JustKam aka Domer going big on YES shares. interesting
Will Stancil wins Minnesota House Democratic Primary?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Okay cool, great.
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Will bet anyone $1m that a $1m fine is possible under the law.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Russia is a fake country that does not exist separate from Ukraine on old maps, and the Russians speak the same language as the Ukrainians, it is only natural for the Ukrainain army to attempt to reunify Ukraine and Russia. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Russia has been overrun by Nazis and needs to be denazified. And it is imperative that we support the Ukrainian army's attempts to denazify Russia.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
2.5 months is a long time going up against the very professional Russian Army
Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Perfect username
Donkov
9 months ago
Another Dem high tech lynching
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Women and children are being bused out, so you know it's serious.
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
A scary thought, if I didn't already know you're a 5'6" balding manlet who is too scared to leave your own "house." I'll be generous with my definition.
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
9 months ago
how about I head to your house instead, Nazi?
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
MrBest, your pretend country needs you!!!!! Head to the front, soldier!!!! "Russia's military isn’t getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses, sources say. Regional officials are failing to meet more than a third of their recruitment quotas on average"
Trump + Elon conversation over 2 hours long?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
When did it start and when did it end?
Trump x Musk space censored in EU?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Whoever has the 12am shift at the censorship button will be the decider
Gena🐊
9 months ago
Hey my father works at the department of online censorship for the EU and told me they are gonna censor this BS interview. Do what you want with this info
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Just a couple of old dudes talking tampons, as old men usually do.
Loaf
9 months ago
You really think there's only a 16% chance Trump says that Walz mandated they put Tampons in the men's restroom? He said it at his rally in Montana. Elon's been involved in the trans debate. The topic will definitely come up. Buy yes on Tampon for free money.
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
This is why you plowed your entire account into Vance leaving...?
EdgyUsername
9 months ago
Was something found in the hacked file?
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Don't bet on my ramblings bro, I don't know what I'm doing here despite what it seems like lol
ALMOST
9 months ago
gogo justkam
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I don't know what to make of this market, I am very biased now, but as far as I am aware this is the state of play: Kamala wants to do September 10th. Trump agreed to 3 at once, including September 10th. ABC announces both sides agreed, but didn't post any details (location, venue, etc.). Then Kamala announces she will only agree to 1 debate. So will Trump now renege on his original 3 debate agreement before a location/venue is finalized?
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
There's no venue yet, not even a city -- "If both candidates say they have agreed to a debate on that date but have not settled on a venue or platform, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market."
muusd
9 months ago
Its a Yes - both have said yes, network has said yes. "For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that both candidates announce they have agreed to such a debate. Whether the debate actually occurs will have no bearing on the resolution of this market."
Did Trump launch $RTR?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Were they paid to put this market up?
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The important thing is we all had fun!
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Maduro is the true OG scam squad.
Apsalar
9 months ago
scam squad might just pull this off
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Oh no, an election market might resolve to the guy who got the most votes
Monka
9 months ago
If it's resole it as Edmundo win, I will leave this platform. Absolute scum
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
What other betting market?
ALMOST
9 months ago
The current market and situation with the percentages no longer reflect reality (other betting markets in different sites have already closed - Maduro won), but rather reflect the market's expectation of how the UMA community will vote. This is, of course, nonsense because, in essence, the UMA community can act as a political organization that recognizes or does not recognize the official election results. A very interesting situation could arise - the official authorities of Venezuela declared Maduro the winner, all betting markets declared Maduro the winner, Russia + China (+basically the entire anti-Western alliance) recognize Maduro's victory, and only the Venezuella opposition, the USA (+the entire pro-Western world), and Polymarket recognize Gonzalez? Don't you guys think this is no longer betting, but clear political statements?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
As opposed to Maduro's electoral strategy and the Maduro holders arguments, the case for Edmundo can be made by real people using actual evidence. Edmundo has the majority on his side in both cases.
Gena🐊
9 months ago
P1 hodlers wake up! those dirty liberal commies are trying to steal our official results. Don't let them!: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1269708730698829955
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Good shout, reading through that chat, and the Edmundo arguments cite evidence and facts, and the Maduro arguments are like "please sir, endorse the fraud."
Gena🐊
9 months ago
🗣️ Attention Maduro HODLERS! 🗣️ Head to Discord and add your arguments in the arguments channel: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1269708730698829955 Don’t let those commies steal the official results from us! 💪🇻🇪
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
We literally have precinct results from over 24,000 precincts showing Edmundo won, all of which are SIGNED and VERIFIED using a QR Code lmao.
haluk
9 months ago
Yes the election results are shady, but I see no path in declaring Edmundo Gonzales the winner, because all te official statement says Maduro. THis should be settled as MAduro.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
All the Maduro yes holders be like -- https://i.imgur.com/EGkNcxA.png
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Considering nearly 70% of voters voted for Gonzalez, I would say that Venezuela has made its thoughts known on this issue.
Gena🐊
9 months ago
Is Venezuela one of them?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
If it wasn't for the Polymarket intern immediately tweeting "MADURO WON" right alongside Cuba & China, this would be at 95c Gonzalez right now. The opposition preserved the evidence from CNE machines that they won the election, and that the results weren't close. CNE released easily disprovable fake results, and then has refused for a week now to release the precinct results (which violates the law). It's not exactly a shock that there's tons of countries in the Americas who are now recognizing Gonzalez as the winner.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
You say "a stolen victory is a victory" and "stop spreading misinformation" in the same post? Is there zero self awareness?
YatSen
9 months ago
If you ask people without interest, they would acknowledge that Maduro won. Some people bought González shares at under 10c, attempting to cause confusion.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Exacto
Sweetness
9 months ago
The opposition has produced 81.85% of the votes showing Gonzalez winning 67% to 30%. They are sorted by: Country, State, Municipality, Parish, Centers, and Tables. It is CRITICAL to note that every single vote table is accompanied by a photo of the minutes from that polling place. They are signed by the President, Secretary, and an additional member of the table election committee as well as two witnesses and an operator. These votes have been independently verified by dozens of organizations including the AP and others. https://resultadosconvzla.com/
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
1. CNE already broke the law by not releasing the precinct results. 2. The opposition RELEASED THE PRECINCT RESULTS showing an overwhelming win with verified actas that are signed by witnesses, and directly from the CNE machines. Just incredible that people think a fraud that has been proven to be fraud is some "official" thing.
Atn
9 months ago
CNE is the only official authority who can declaare a winner. This market is fully about oficial Venezuela gov report
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
What are you smoking? You think that it is Polymarket traders "causing confusion" considering this stolen election has been in the world headlines for a week straight?
YatSen
9 months ago
If you ask people without interest, they would acknowledge that Maduro won. Some people bought González shares at under 10c, attempting to cause confusion.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
A few misleading or wrong things in your post. 1. Maduro is still President for a few more months, regardless of who won. There is a transition period. 2. The opposition results are the digitized and certified precinct results from the CNE machines. The Maduro government has refused to release the precinct results to verify their win, which is against the law. 3. They did allow international observers. The Carter Center was there. After the election, they fled the country and released a damning report. 4. I understand the gist of your argument is that CNE's word is law, and that would probably be the case if the opposition didn't go to great lengths to keep and catalog the verified proof that they won the election.
ratz
9 months ago
In the official PM account they say that Maduro being president does not mean that he won it fairly or that he deserves it and I totally agree, it would be very stupid to have a guy here as a winner and that when they go to Venezuela look at someone else, for God's sake, If you search for the president of Venezuela on Google, you won't get the one you have in mind, and it would be ridiculous if it were like that here, and much worse when their rule is to have the CNE as the main source, which does not allow international observers, in principle they made rules wrong and must adapt to them. We all want Maduro to go to the underworld, but bets are bets and if you want to trust the CNE = Fraud, what did you want?
What will Trump say in August?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Based on what I've found, the interview was in the late afternoon, so it's a toss-up whether it was filmed outside the window or not. I also think it'll be close to impossible to figure out when it was filmed, so probably lean towards not counting it. I also think its probably moot as he will probably say the word 10 more times this month.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
A reminder that the CNE has already violated the law by not publishing the full data tables showing the precinct-level results. They were supposed to do so within 48 HOURS. There is a whole story in the Associated Press detailing how the opposition tallied the precinct-level results on their own, showing an overwhelming victory for Gonzalez straight from the CNE machines.
person1
9 months ago
August 2nd, 2024 (in the evening – after all the most recent UWA votes): Venezuela’s Electoral Authority announced 96.87% of votes tallied, with Maduro winner 51.95% (6,408,844) to 43.18% (5,326,104). This margin is mathematically irreversible (unlike the result announced on Monday morning when only 80% of the votes had been tallied). That is, even if Gonzalez gets every remaining untallied vote, he still loses. Therefore, this bet should close and resolve Maduro YES. The bet resolves on “official” information from Venezuela, meaning information from the country’s Electoral Authority (Centro Nacional Electoral). Nothing else is relevant. (https://www.telesurenglish.net/electoral-council-publishes-2nd-bulletin-of-the-venezuelan-elections-results/) (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-electoral-council-says-97-votes-tallied-affirms-maduro-winner-2024-08-02/)
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Still have not released any of the precinct data as required by law
0x0d2cA4faDbF9dC5BfB6077e232a8Dbd8DD50B8cC-1722469029328
9 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-electoral-council-says-97-votes-tallied-affirms-maduro-winner-2024-08-02/
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
In the first 30 seconds she told him she was picking Shapiro, and the rest of the 90 minutes they played Gin Rummy and gossiped about celebrities.
mombil
9 months ago
NEWS: Harris and @PeteButtigieg met today for about 90 minutes about the VP job, sources tell me. The meeting was not at Harris's home in Washington. Source: https://x.com/JarrettRenshaw/status/1819490069608353945
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
With crypto and stocks both crashing, the safest asset in the world is Shapiro for VP.
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
lmao https://x.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/117305483567702016
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Interesting, so confirmation that he was on an IDF base mucking about doing army projects.
Yanoya4sure
9 months ago
Clarification on Shapiro volunteering in Israeli Army - https://x.com/danielmarans/status/1819483558148177970?t=t5LyjlZqK9OC3h8xXWXsug&s=19
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
and The Guru, I have no idea who it is going to be, and this comment could look very stupid in 3 days. It's just funny that people were buying infinite shares non-stop on that silly hype video.
yoonmarketenjoyer
9 months ago
If you really thought it wasn't Shapiro you'd be massively loaded up by now
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I'm just being stuffed with infinite no shares of the IDF Soldier
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
It's been 5 days, and they still HAVE NOT released the precinct rules. This was required by law to be posted within 48 hours. 5 days later, and they still can't do it.
tuyuyo
9 months ago
new official bulletin from CNE With 96.87% of the minutes, the president of the body, Elvis Amoroso, gave the final results of the July 28 elections. https://x.com/cneesvzla/status/1819459661114102120
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Consensus is the easiest thing here, I think we easily have a very wide-ranging consensus that Gonzalez won. Just in the past few hours, multiple South American countries have recognized Gonzalez as the winner of the election.
factman
9 months ago
yes, and consensus is the hardest thing here
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Keep your eye on the prize here. Maduro is scamming. Gonzalez actually won. People betting on Maduro are betting on the scam artist. But the scam appears to be really horrible, and can be easily disproven.
yoonmarketenjoyer
9 months ago
What a shitshow market. I feel for all the Maduro holders getting scammed.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
What happened here? Why was this proposed?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Tendrás suerte si gobierna 6 DÍAS más.
ELGRANCASTILLO
9 months ago
No Importa Que Pierda Lo Que Si Va Ser Cierto Es Que Maduro Gobernara Venezuela Por 6 Años Mas Asi Lo Digo y Asi Sucedera Si DIOS Nuestro Creador Asi Lo Permite. La Plata Aqui Va y Viene.
NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Did you read this part of the rules? "If the Chicago Bears win, this market will resolve to "Bears"." The Bears won, therefore it expires to DAAAA BEARRSSSS.
Wiz_0066
9 months ago
“If the game ends in a tie, is canceled, or delayed beyond August 8, this market will resolve to 50-50.” The game was DELAYED, then ultimately CANCELLED before completion. Game will not resume prior to August 8. Market shall resolve 50/50.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
"Basically a poll." Lol, they are the results from the CNE machines, audited, and signed by witnesses.
ThrivingLeverage
9 months ago
That's an opposition website. It's basicly a poll by the opposition on whether they won or not. lololol. Only CNE results matter.
NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
NFL says its 21-17 Final score, Bears win (as expected): https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1819205879990047185
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
82% of the precinct results have now been uploaded showing Gonzalez definitively won -- https://resultadosconvzla.com/ The opposition claims they have 90% of the vote tallies so far, so I guess more will be updated in the near term future. The CNE still has only released 80% of the "vote" and has released 0% of the precinct data. They claim the precinct data was hacked by...North Macedonia (this is not a joke).
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Good guys winning, bad guys losing, etc.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
It's important to feed ChatGPT unbiased information, else you get misleading information back. Does ChatGPT know that CNE already broke the law by not releasing precinct results? They are in violation of the Venezeulan Constitution, which is why Maduro is at the TSJ.
0x0d2cA4faDbF9dC5BfB6077e232a8Dbd8DD50B8cC-1722469029328
9 months ago
Yes, in Venezuela, the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral) is the official national electoral council responsible for overseeing elections and referendums. It is an autonomous and independent branch of government tasked with ensuring the transparency, impartiality, and legality of electoral processes in the country. The CNE is the primary source for official information regarding elections, voter registration, and related electoral activities in Venezuela. If they said someone won a election does that mean they did? ChatGPT If the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral) declares someone the winner of an election in Venezuela, it means that the organization has officially validated and announced the results based on their procedures and regulations. However, the credibility and acceptance of these results can vary depending on perspectives, especially in politically contentious environments. There might be domestic or international scrutiny, and different stakeholders may have differing views on the legitimacy of the process and outcomes.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Who will their President be...?
felipe33
9 months ago
Polymarket has stated "People deserve to know who their President will be, EVEN in cases of corruption". Stop manipulating this please, you should be banned...
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
More legible version -- https://i.imgur.com/MTEWXND.png
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I've been feeding ChatGPT articles day by day to update it on the situation, and assess how it should resolve this market. I have not included any biased sentences, just posting articles & posting the rules. I have also included both pro-opposition and pro-Maduro sources to make sure it is not getting just one side of the story. Here is its assessment: "Conclusion The inclusion of this article offers several insights into the ongoing debate: Complex Political Context: The political and international dimensions of the situation are complex, with conflicting narratives and interests at play. Legal and Procedural Questions: The procedural issues and lack of transparency remain central to the "No" argument, despite Maduro's legal maneuvers to secure legitimacy. Verifiability and Legitimacy: Given the technical and legal challenges to forgery, alongside the significant independent evidence of opposition victory, the situation supports a resolution leaning towards "No" unless the CNE can decisively prove otherwise. Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether the prediction market rules prioritize the procedural aspects of the election or the broader question of legitimacy and transparency. Given the substantial evidence and procedural irregularities highlighted by both opposition and international observers, the balance seems to tip toward questioning the CNE's declaration."
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I've been feeding ChatGPT articles day by day to update it on the situation, and assess how it should resolve this market. I have not included any biased sentences, just posting articles & posting the rules. I have also included both pro-opposition and pro-Maduro sources to make sure it is not getting just one side of the story. Here is its assessment: "Conclusion The inclusion of this article offers several insights into the ongoing debate: Complex Political Context: The political and international dimensions of the situation are complex, with conflicting narratives and interests at play. Legal and Procedural Questions: The procedural issues and lack of transparency remain central to the "No" argument, despite Maduro's legal maneuvers to secure legitimacy. Verifiability and Legitimacy: Given the technical and legal challenges to forgery, alongside the significant independent evidence of opposition victory, the situation supports a resolution leaning towards "No" unless the CNE can decisively prove otherwise. Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether the prediction market rules prioritize the procedural aspects of the election or the broader question of legitimacy and transparency. Given the substantial evidence and procedural irregularities highlighted by both opposition and international observers, the balance seems to tip toward questioning the CNE's declaration."
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
A Maduro bettor is claiming that there is an attempt to "manipulate the market'!! Hahahaha, stop. I am laughing too hard. Irony is dead.
ALMOST
9 months ago
Apparently, we are witnessing an attempt to manipulate the market. I can't explain the current situation otherwise.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I think the market should expire to the truth. Over ten million people went to the polls, and voted for Gonzales by 30 points, verified by precinct data. I'm going to bet on that guy winning the election. If I lose money, I don't care. At least I'm not some stooge arguing to "please gib me my fraud money" like half the commenters here.
0x0d2cA4faDbF9dC5BfB6077e232a8Dbd8DD50B8cC-1722469029328
9 months ago
People are letting their personal opinions outweigh the rules.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The guy betting on Maduro just posted "market manipulators should be banned"? Lmao.
felipe33
9 months ago
Market manipulators should be banned.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
They faked what? The precinct cards are signed, and have an individual hash number that can't be tampered with. There are pictures of the precinct results posted by people on social media. The only people who faked the data is the Maduro regime lol. Which is they are breaking the law, and ignoring the international calls to release the precinct data.
0x0d2cA4faDbF9dC5BfB6077e232a8Dbd8DD50B8cC-1722469029328
9 months ago
They faked it... Maduro is getting the high court to audit it.... lol
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
A new proposal can be made if you want, but proposing Maduro is very likely to lose again because it is still Too Early.
kenaway12
9 months ago
wait so that wasn't the final dispute ? what is happening ?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Recapping again that the opposition has released 81% of the results, and 81% of the precinct results: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ The CNE was required by law to post the full results within 48 hours. They still have only released 80% of the "vote" total, not 100%. And they have released 0% of the precinct results. It looks like Gonzales won by north of 30 points in the election, and the opposition has proved that with verified, signed precinct data direct from the CNE machines.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I'm not on the Polymarket team, and this is not the final dispute. And it didn't get reversed. It got remanded to "Too Early." Because it looks like Maduro didn't actually win the election, and committed massive fraud.
notabi
9 months ago
are you on the polymarket team or something? this was supposed to be final dispute and it got reversed
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
It will be nearly impossible for Maduro to fake the precinct results. They've already broken the law by not releasing them within 48 hours. https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2024/07/31/falsifying-vote-tallies-is-very-hard-heres-why/
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The "Yes" proposal was unsuccessful. Not enough evidence that he won.
ELGRANCASTILLO
9 months ago
Que Paso? Ya No Aparece Tiempo.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
There has never been a Fox News Presidential debate ever. Lol.
AlexJaymin
9 months ago
There's ALWAYS a Fox News presidential debate, and both camps will want it. This is a pretty easy Yes.
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I really doubt he'll switch him out, but he obv should.
Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Seems like it wouldn't count, per the rules...not sure if it should count. Usually countries react accordingly, so I imagine Turkey would also suspend relations on their end?
Boe-Jiden
9 months ago
Question: What if Israel is the one to initiate relation suspension? Does that count?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
the site is: vote dot uma dot xyz
sabotage
9 months ago
Does polymarket have to definitively resolve this one way or another in 19 hours or they can postpone it?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Sorry its 96% not 99%
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I think you are confused. UMA is currently voting 99% that the "Yes" proposal is too early, and this event is still in doubt.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The proposal of "Yes" is currently being voted on by UMA. Yes has 4% of the vote, Too Early has 96% of the vote.
sabotage
9 months ago
Does polymarket have to definitively resolve this one way or another in 19 hours or they can postpone it?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I think you are confused. UMA is currently voting 99% that the "Yes" proposal is too early, and this event is still in doubt.
Factual
9 months ago
Just 18 hours until Maduro holders get their money
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
What do you mean?
Factual
9 months ago
Just 18 hours until Maduro holders get their money
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
"48 hours since the CNE announced the first results bulletin, and it still hasn't published the detailed results by center and table on its website, nor has it delivered the results database to the participating parties."
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
They didn't even pretend to release real numbers, the 80% of the "vote" they released so far are exactly round numbers, 44.200000, 51.20000, and 4.60000 lol https://x.com/ltornarolli/status/1818324314736734629
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
https://resultadosconvzla.com/ --- just a heads up that the opposition has now released more of the official audited results (81%) and more of the precinct audited results (81%) than the government has (80% of the "vote", 0% of the precinct vote)
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1818482296527442175
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
"The @CarterCenter said a technical mission it sent to Venezuela was unable to verify the results of the country’s presidential election and blamed officials for a “complete lack of transparency” in declaring Nicolas Maduro the winner without publishing polling station tallies."
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Oh we finally decided that the guy who lost by 40 points isn't worth 95c anymore?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The side that definitely won the election and is publishing precinct results is at 10c, and the guy who definitely committed fraud and is not publishing any precinct results (for the first time ever) is trading at 90c. Is this a failure of prediction markets?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Both sides have claimed victory, and the opposition has just published a comprehensive list of precinct results that shows they definitively won the election. Other countries are calling on the Maduro government to release any precinct results they have, which the government has refused to do (because they made them up). The result of the election will likely end up in the court system in Venezuela, and this market could be open as the winner is determined by the Venezuelan system.
n/a
9 months ago
Why they do not close this? I had to withdraw because I will lose more. This is manipulation. Maybe i will open my own system out of this political shit. Now this in like twitter here. Polymarket has to be serious. Other system already close this topic
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Even Lula abandoned Maduro and thinks it was rigged. Tough scene for the bus driver.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Maduro lost by so much that rigging it will be difficult, we'll see what they can pull off
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I'm pretty neutral on this one. I think what Lummis proposed is definitely a strategic reserve -- you buy bitcoin and hold it. What Trump proposed -- that they not sell seized Bitcoin and stockpile it -- is definitely not what Lummis is proposing. And what Trump proposed is not how the US currently operates our petroleum strategic reserve (whereas Lummis is proposing something extremely similar to the petroleum strategic reserve). However, given all of that, Polymarket has been throwing out their rules and siding with the "vibes" of a market regardless of whether it is correct or not. And the vibes here is that Trump announced something similar to a reserve, so it's probably unlikely that a dispute would win. It's really unfortunate that Polymarket is going down the path of throwing out the truth in favor of vibes, but that is their decision.
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Lol, I'm just betting on it for fun
singa
9 months ago
...and the best bettor is on yes 🤔
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The worst bettor in this site's history (therealbatman) is on NO big time.
Will Biden finish his term?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
And the warning to those who bought YES is that this guy has severe mental decline that is accelerating. In case you missed that!
YatSen
9 months ago
Warn those who bought NO that even if they want to exit, there are no events left to trigger it.
Will Biden finish his term?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
Really wish I could see my PnL in this contract
Democratic Blitz primary?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
As a check on my sanity -- I posted JUST the rules, a sentence that Joe Biden has withdrawn, and the DNC statement into ChatGPT just as a sanity check, and obviously it said "Yes" has won.
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
This was unfortunately a scam. After Yes won they changed the rules to disallow the Yes win.
Democratic Blitz primary?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
This was unfortunately a scam. After Yes won they changed the rules to disallow the Yes win.
Democratic Blitz primary?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The DNC opened it up today for any candidate who wants to join...
martingale
9 months ago
Obvious no. Nobody calls a majority of delegates unilaterally committing to choose Kamala a “blitz primary”
Kamala president by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
His death
dannyman
9 months ago
What are you hedging against?
Kamala president by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
I personally think he is dead, but betting on No because its a hedge
Democratic Nominee 2024
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
537k RFK Jr. Nice bet.
PolyMucket
9 months ago
The nominee is chosen by the Party NOT the ex President.
Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
It's definitely evidence! I didn't say it was conclusive. Seems like we have learned that he hated both parties and didn't care whether it was Biden or Trump that he was targeting.
Kyndekhar
9 months ago
If him shooting at Trump was going to be used as evidence that he's a dem then this market shouldn't even have existed as it was already resolved
CrowdStrike outage fixed by Friday night?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
It's definitely resolving yes, as stuff already seems mostly operational now, let alone 16 hours from now
patriot
9 months ago
"The resolution will be based on official statements from CrowdStrike or a consensus of credible reporting indicating that the affected services are mostly operational, with only minor issues remaining." so even if there's some lingering issues it should resolve yes
Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?
🤺JustPunched
9 months ago
The more we learn, the more I think this question is unanswerable. It's hard to answer Republican when he is shooting the Republican candidate lol. But Democrat definitely also seems like the wrong answer.
Which party wins the most seats in French Election?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Pumping...your bags?
Apsalar
10 months ago
won by... other?
Biden gives speech without teleprompter by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Market is a little weird as I'm pretty sure this already happened
Biden senile during the debate?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
By "completing", do you mean rambling incoherently? Like: "We finally beat Medicare.”
Flipp
10 months ago
A truly senile man would not have been able to complete a 90 minute plus long debate.
Biden senile during the debate?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
i'm of the opinion he was definitely senile.
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Pence also told reporters he didn't want it and would run for re-election in Indiana.
Smokey-Joe
10 months ago
She's the only person in the world who says she don't want it. What can you do? Longshot now
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
After spending hours of his life across many weeks pumping, Smokey Joe retreating on Huckabee like a dirty dumpster dog.
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
This was already explained to you, bimbo. Stop LARPing
nawf
10 months ago
im trying to but it keeps saying i dont have enough usdc even though i have more then the bond...
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Still 2 hours left for a big boy buyer of Yes to come in. Come on in, big boys. We're ready for you!
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Team Yes in the house!!!
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
It should be USDC.E and on the Polygon chain. Are you using the oracle?
nawf
10 months ago
i have enough usdc but it wont let me propose a resolution, why is that?
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Lol, they are mostly big numbers, but they are VERY different big numbers.
Car
10 months ago
@DOMER you are saying you have experience VP betting, but you are almost holding every single person in this market
Largest Company on Friday?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Fun market, lots of swings
Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Jedi training has really fallen off a cliff
Ledgerjedi
10 months ago
mario confirmed he saw the evidence of barrons involvment, bigger news outlet than cnn
Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
He is such a nice person.
ScapeCapital
10 months ago
I love how Martin somehow supposedly owns zero tokens and he is willing to dedicate this much time to proving its real.
Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
We have to be approaching $5m worth of losses for ppl betting on stuff Mario Nawfal is involved with.
HFGHDH
10 months ago
WIN https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1803508547075916007
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
SEND IT!!!!
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
do not click on the scam links
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
So true
the-goal-is-more-bitcoin
10 months ago
GCR holds a HUGE bag of MAGA (trump meme coin) hence his tweet. This is easy money.
Is $DJT real?
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
You're telling me I should not have bet $50k on Yes based on Martin Shkreli? That was wrong ?
BitBoy vs. Smic - Crypto Fight Night
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Rigged?
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
TIM COOK DOWN. BRING ME CLIPPIE'S HEAD!!!!!
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
2% in 4 hours
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
The dream is collapsing.
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Rumor on the street is that NVDA has an STD, she nasty, she a ho, stay away from that chica.
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
MSFT is our new champion!!! COME ON CLIPPIE!!!!
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
What is power hour?
Car
11 months ago
dont forget about power hour
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
6 hours left to make-up a 3% difference, this pricing is wild
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
You did that on purpose?
Retry
11 months ago
I'm ALL IN :))
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
NVDA red
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
We have the power of GAY PRIDE MONTH in our corner
n/a
11 months ago
AAPL is stronger than MSFT currently. You better hope Tim Cook saves you.
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
NVDA is supported by a gallery of Dickheads, Dweebs, and Dipshits
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
AAPL is strong LIKE OX
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
8 hours left for the NVDA dickheads
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
lots more yes for you to buy
teamred
11 months ago
Easiest bet in my life fr
Apple x OpenAI partnership announced in WWDC 2024?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Is that a partnership?
Next President of Iran?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
I was very confused why people thought Ghabilaf wouldn't run
Pelositits
11 months ago
People on this market who will not register to run: Khamenei, Rouhani, Salehi, and Ghabilaf.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Thanks, WarGPT
Pelositits
11 months ago
Attempting to invade Southern Lebanon would be a mistake. It would not achieve any calm in Northern Israel or the rest of the country and would cost billions of dollars. Israel would not be successful in disarming Hezbollah or creating a buffer zone in Lebanon. For all of these reasons, Israel will commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon before August 31, 2024.
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Tale as old as time. Either Relay makes a tiny amount on a topic he barely understands, or he gets BTFO again betting on something he barely understands.
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Jeesh, have to constantly tell the most embarrassing user of the site that he is wrong over and over again. This is not the maximum fine.
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
DAY 4 of ASKING POLYMARKET to RUG " over 1 million fine " REWARDS to $5 (or less) - the MAXIMUM FINE is 34 counts x $5000 = $170,000 !!! 😹🫵
Eminem's "Houdini" debuts #1 on Billboard hot 100?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Nope
Stol
11 months ago
Is this a reliable source? Asking for a friend. https://x.com/talkofthecharts
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
market was created long before he was considered a contender
0x7407687035241841b9bafcE24C89B9F4222fd3A6-1717409096895
11 months ago
Why is Doug $BURGUM missing from this post?
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Wow, big clarification from Polymarket -- "This market was only on the first win, and because Galvez won the first exit poll, she will be paid out as the winner. Any subsequent numbers, including the counting of actual ballots, will not be considered for this market.
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Dios a mio, that exit poll is nuts
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Link please
gushy
11 months ago
look at twitter, current %
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Any guesses on who wins?
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
This is not the maximum fine.
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
DAY 3 of ASKING POLYMARKET to RUG " over 1 million fine " REWARDS to $5 (or less) - the MAXIMUM FINE is 34 counts x $5000 = $170,000 !!! 😹🫵
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
A mark-up from what? The only price is what ppl are willing to pay. We make them up. If you want to buy in bulk, I am offering you a price. You're doing overtime working spamming multiple sites pumping this chick, you even convinced resident dumbass truthteller to buy at high prices.
Smokey-Joe
11 months ago
https://x.com/TheLeoTerrell/status/1796943620031074769
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
I'll sell you 100k shares at 20c if you want
Smokey-Joe
11 months ago
https://x.com/TheLeoTerrell/status/1796943620031074769
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Just because you two goofballs are gullible and believe bad reporting doesn't make it "impossible."
ArberB
11 months ago
It is literally impossible for him to be fined $1,000,000 under the law: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-could-trump-owe-convicted-175839288.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAYBHEI1J31Z_2cjrHQLY197LTvQ03aJ7vgmdQuzru8cCuIDBbwZ1MFpZii2Vugu0dXrR91v1TDIt2nl1E6fdyq5hD8-ONeEtl323qDB954feZE6ZKS6aJWWmuB8GojXsR3VFUXsTUsTr2ZLKKzcV5fpE8rAWlmsB69RJP8_xn4H
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
You're running out of money. Please re-deposit.
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
DAY 1 of ASKING POLYMARKET to RUG " over 1 million fine " REWARDS to $5 (or less) - the MAXIMUM FINE is 34 counts x $5000 = $170,000 !!! 😹🫵
Will Peter play Thursday? - Million Dollar Game Day 3
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
The fine print also says day 3...I see what you're saying about "the note" up top. But I think that is a little silly to say that this confused you. The market is very straight forward. Plus, if he's not playing today, then tomorrow is probably a no go as well.
hershelSquirt
11 months ago
they need to refund this. It says 'thursday game 3 ' in the betting line, but in fine print it says its for game 4. Refund our money, what a clown site can't even get the lines right while advertising poker
Will Paris Hilton launch a memecoin by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Everyone point and laugh at the yes holders!
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
¿No tienes chistes en tu pais?
mcduck
11 months ago
¿Pueden los mexicanos decirme si las encuestas son reales o falsas?
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Las encuestas que dan victoria a mi candidato son reales. ¿otros? Falso. Muy falso.
mcduck
11 months ago
¿Pueden los mexicanos decirme si las encuestas son reales o falsas?
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Where is this? I'll take Claudia for the max amount I can at those odds.
xochitlgalvez.eth
11 months ago
do whatever you want but Xochitl pays +325 in Mexico and Claudia -450
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Necesito que Claudia gane. Por favor, mis amigos.
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Had it happen to me before, twice. Lovely time.
schizoid
11 months ago
im prepared to get fucked by an olympian
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Sahil if you are reading this, please TIP me $5, thank you I need it
Billyyyyy
11 months ago
Sahil has now successfully ran 5 influencer rugs this week He launched $Zumi with of model @normiekazumi He launched $rich with rapper @richthekid He launched $doll with model @ivanaknolldoll He launched $SOULJA about artist @souljaboy all connecting to his main addy 7s3v1jP9o1qZgovd4i9QfKej7is4cLV3uSbqKCNZN9rh
Will RFK Jr. announce Libertarian Party bid?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Flagging this for the Polymarket team to investigate this error.
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
When I last checked this market, there were hundreds of Relay comments.
Will RFK Jr. announce Libertarian Party bid?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
When I last checked this market, there were hundreds of Relay comments.
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Verge is reporting that Elon dropped his phone in the toilet while trying to write a laughing emoji to a particularly funny tweet. That may be it for tweets this week.
OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
DISPUTED!!!
Mexico Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
AMLO has almost a 70% approval rating, and "Massive Caller" is considered a huge joke and a rigged poll.
gushy
11 months ago
As the Top Holder Against Claudia, I feel like this is waaaaaay to unreal with an 8% for xotchil, thats why I decided to bet against Claudia and my position will only keep on growing as elections come closer, whoever is betting for Claudia has the worst RR given that theres like a 40% chance Xotchil wins, yall be coinflipping for 10% upside.
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
This was disputed, and will now go to UMA.
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Iran state media officially announced his death at 12:30am EST.
Americanecs
11 months ago
Despite the remains of the helicopter being found, the bodies themselves are still being sought. Until they are found, there will be no official announcement, although everything is already clear to everyone. The IRGC recognized the death of Ebrahim Raisi and the others.
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
You've been here for like 3 days, and you immediately have a reputation for being a clown and a liar. Nice!
Car
11 months ago
If theres no official statement of the rescue workers finding the body of the president, this resolves to NO. Give me more NO shares please
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
This is what my mom tells me when she calls
versace
11 months ago
nobody belive in you you lost again and again
Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk: Who will win?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
USYK POWER, PLUS I ALMOST WIN ON DRAW AND MAKE BIG MONEY. SLAVA UKRAINI
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
FURY = HE LOSE
Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk: Who will win?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
FURY = HE LOSE
Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk: Who will win?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
USYK will crush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or they draw.
$GME halted on Friday?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Do you know the guy who posts non-stop crazy stuff on the site as JewSIS or ReesesPieces or whatever other name, those are all Relay. He has like 50 accounts. Has been consistently losing money and is very bitter and mad at everyone.
Car
11 months ago
who is relay?
Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
The guy is able to buy tens and tens of thousands of shares without the price moving, and yet he keeps posting "sell me more YES." Hey pal, we are selling you more yes over and over again.
$GME halted on Friday?
🤺JustPunched
11 months ago
Yikes. Relay can't keep affording these big Ls.
Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
I am selling you as much Yes as you want to buy, buddy.
1713888952017
0 years ago
If you think Keith Gill have this much time making this many tweets, sell me more YES, have a nice day.
Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
How much No are you going to make me buy? I need at least some money for food!!!!
NYC-Dublin portal back online by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
The Portal is currently under arrest, and is unlikely to get out of jail in time to go live again
Car
0 years ago
there literally happened a crime. ofcourse it wont be opened again
Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
It has to be proven, otherwise No wins.
ahoythere
0 years ago
how would we even prove this by May 31? sounds kinda sus
MrBeast biggest YouTube channel by June 30?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
You say it sarcastically, and yet...
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
0 years ago
DUMFUQ DOMER buys 81 cent Yes, sells it off for 68 cents! GREAT JOB RETARD! Keep it up! My account is definitely going to zero!
$GME halted on Wednesday?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
He's lost so much money on this site its not even funny.
Car
0 years ago
JewSISorISIS:whichIsWorse? bought NO at 14 sold no at 8 NEVER LISTEN TO HIM!
MrBeast biggest YouTube channel by June 30?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
everytime i click on this market, there's another 10 posts from the resident nutcase. scribbling with his shit all over the walls while his account dwindles to $0.
# GME trading halts today?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
Even in a market where he actually makes a profit, Relay still has more posts (11) than profits ($3.50).
OpenAI announces search competitor on Monday?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
Don't be dense.
lyndonbj
0 years ago
It specifies an announcement on Monday, but which monday?
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
Yes can give you a tip. Seabiscuit in the 8th race.
Jordcapp
1 year ago
yo can somebody tip me?
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on May 9?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Russia 🤣
Will Jersey Jerry complete the marathon?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
what do you mean?
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
41-17, DUMFUQ DOMER knows what I mean!!! 🫵😆
Drake or Kendrick higher on Billboard Hot 100 this week?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Drake fanboys don't know when to give up
Will Friend.Tech airdrop by Thursday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Today is now today
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
"Today" now means May 2, 11:59pm ET.
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
And yet you are here. Same guy who pretended he was going to bet on the other CZ market, but was too scared to do it.
Car
1 year ago
what a dumb market
When will Port of Baltimore reopen?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It has been disputed
Apsalar
1 year ago
it has been proposed
How Long will CZ's sentence be?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Just inhale and relax buddy, nobody is pumping anything. I have no idea what I'm doing and just making bets and having fun out there.
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
Pump those B1s to FIFTY, DUMFUQ 🤡 DOMER 🤡, even tho you sold them for 10 cents at first! 😭👈🤣
Congress passes bill banning TikTok by April 30?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Because the bill doesn't take effect for a year
Car
1 year ago
Why is this market going up, but not this market?: https://polymarket.com/event/tiktok-banned-in-the-us-by-june-30?tid=1713517786023
NBA MVP
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Haven't a clue in the world
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
41-17, DUMFUQ DOMER knows what I mean! 🫵😂🍺
Israel military action against Iran by April 15?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Don't take it to $0.001 too early, or they might load up on yes and then launch the planes.
'Civil War' Opening Weekend Box Office
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I think I made money here but ultimately I have no clue
'Civil War' Opening Weekend Box Office
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
He used to be a big trader here, but he went broke and now haunts the comments section with awful posts.
Devyduu
1 year ago
Who are you and why do you keep spamming comments like this?
South Korea election: Which party wins the most seats?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I thought the election was already over when I saw the prices, but they haven't even started voting yet. Why are people 99.5% certain of this...?
First cat to $1b?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I own yes bc I think either this doesn't happen at all or another coin wins, all of these current ones don't seem like strong enough memes.
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Bonez0r this dude is an imposter posting misleading stuff. That coin obv would not count for anything related to this market.
First cat to $1b?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Bonez0r this dude is an imposter posting misleading stuff. That coin obv would not count for anything related to this market.
KAM
1 year ago
atg5ihicz71x7jayr714rjgkdwslzuupzucur6gbuypu
Will Trump mention $boden before July?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's the point of the market that a typo would count, otherwise this would be trading at 1c
Inductif
1 year ago
Lmao the i is next to the o. He'll just say it on his Truth social by accident as a typo. These rules suck.
Box Office: April 5-7
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Couple of clunkers this week
Iran response to Israel by Monday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Sure buddy
Fred19999
1 year ago
The "etc." is interesting here, it means a spoken response condemning the attack could count, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has already responded in this way. I will bet accordingly.
Trump convicted of felony before Election?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
He is not going to go to prison for business records, dude. Put your thinking cap on, if you even own one.
BTC2daM000000n
1 year ago
Posting the same question here as on the other market: How is it that this market is 79 cents and the will he go to jail market is at 14 cents?! Not exactly the same thing but pretty close... that bet is a STEAL. Conviction --> hard time
Iowa vs. LSU: Clark or Reese scores more?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Everyone's favorite useless drunk has shown his face again, welcome back! Glad you found a few more bucks to bet.
Istanbul Mayoral Election 2024: Which party will win?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Lol. Erdogan's party controls most of the media.
debased
1 year ago
Turkish elections are free and competetive. You just need good candidates to win one (just like in other countries)
Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Alternates, I sort of agree with you that based on the rules, a "yes" is plausible here. By the same token, I think it would be very hard to answer this question "Yes" just based on sketchy claims from Russia that seem like bald-faced lies.
M.Axe
1 year ago
What else?
Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
UMA is going to resolve it as NO unless there is evidence. You posting a list is not evidence.
M.Axe
1 year ago
What else?
Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I asked for her, but they didn't put it up. She's included in "Other Woman."
Musashi
1 year ago
Why no straight Tulsi pick? The rumours are flying....
'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
GODZIRRRRRRA
Democratic Nominee 2024
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
He becomes the nominee at the convention
dberwegerCH
1 year ago
Isn't this confirmed?
Will Trump make bond by March 25?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
My guess is Poly will just pick yes or no, and decide which one wins, but I'd personally go with 50/50 here.
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I can make a cogent argument for both resolutions here. 1. Trump has clearly "won" his appeal. His original bond requirement of $450m was thrown out, and the deadline was pushed back. This meets the requirements for "Yes" and also the spirit of the market that he didn't miss his bond payment. 2. Trump will likely not actually post the bond by the end of the day today, and so this would lead to "No." And that seems like it answers the question posed by the title.
Will Trump make bond by March 25?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I can make a cogent argument for both resolutions here. 1. Trump has clearly "won" his appeal. His original bond requirement of $450m was thrown out, and the deadline was pushed back. This meets the requirements for "Yes" and also the spirit of the market that he didn't miss his bond payment. 2. Trump will likely not actually post the bond by the end of the day today, and so this would lead to "No." And that seems like it answers the question posed by the title.
Muslim group responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
They filmed themselves pledging to isis and yelling Islamic slogans while killing people. Not exactly a controversial decision here.
LuckyTrump
1 year ago
Bastard UMAs with PM morons on board. Just go fuck yourself
Muslim group responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
The "dipshits" are the Russians, not Manifold users.
0xaf
1 year ago
Domer — 02/26/2024 7:39 AM thankfully we have two prediction markets assessing success that are not reliant upon the UMA oracle: Manifold and the stock market, both say not successful.
Muslim group responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Thankfully very few ppl here care what those dipshits say about anything.
0xaf
1 year ago
https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/who-will-the-russian-authorities-bl
Muslim group responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's not about who Russia says is behind the attack either, although their claims are important to take into account. It's about consensus of information, taking into account all facts and claims.
Allleex
1 year ago
It's not about who claimed the attack. It's about what Russia will say is behind the attack.
Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Yep, going to be a tricky one.
Car
1 year ago
Mr Putin himself just said Ukraine is responsible.
US gov shutdown/lapse on March 23?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
MrDunkedOn
MrDunk
1 year ago
I tried to warn y’all. The NOs have this market.
Kate Middleton video fake?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Sure buddy. You'll also get a refund in the Santa market if it winds up that all Christmas toys are made in the North Pole.
Apsalar
1 year ago
do i get a refund in the other market if this resolves Yes?
Kate Middleton video appearance in March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
The shop where they were filmed is also ~1 mile from where they live
pcottle
1 year ago
Lot of people are calling the TMZ video a lookalike -- it doesn't look anything like her. I'm curious what "consensus of credible reporting" will be...
Kate Middleton video appearance in March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's clearly William and Kate lol, please don't fall into the conspiracy rabbit hole
pcottle
1 year ago
Lot of people are calling the TMZ video a lookalike -- it doesn't look anything like her. I'm curious what "consensus of credible reporting" will be...
Another Boeing emergency landing by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Don't be a sore loser. A Mayday is an international emergency call, and a very serious matter. It means he thinks the plane is at risk of a serious problem, which could kill people. If he rescinded the Mayday and landed without incident, then it wouldn't be an emergency landing.
Pump
1 year ago
Nah thank you, if emergency landing is "Mayday" call I will pass it
SOL hits $200 by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
If it hits 200 again, we win twice
First place in California Senate Primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
couple weeks
friendlyguyy
1 year ago
anyone know when the actual results are? This wait is brutal
Boeing emergency landing by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Probably, but if they rescinded the Mayday call (like they were able to fix or solve whatever the issue was), then it wouldn't be an emergency landing.
Pump
1 year ago
KLM flight KL791 from Amsterdam to Sao Paulo is declaring an emergency over Gulf of Biscay. The flight departed Amsterdam at 11:45 CET
Boeing emergency landing by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I was becoming concerned that this market would resolve without UMA's involvement. Phew. What a relief. Glad to see them step up to the plate here and rescue us.
Boeing emergency landing by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
DISPOOTED
Boeing emergency landing by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
What in TARNATION is going on here ????
SOL hits $200 by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
So close, yet so far.
First place in California Senate Primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
They should hydrate
sd0000
1 year ago
Orange County - EXHAUSTED, San Diego - EXHAUSTED...40k Schiff win back on the menu boys.
Kanye digital release of 'Vultures' Vol. 2 by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Nobody wants to put offers up bc Kanye is such a nutcase lol
7to700ez
1 year ago
Why is it at 99c did Vultures 2 come out?
First place in California Senate Primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
AnEggplant, you're so cool man.
AnEggplant
1 year ago
I've been missing this kind of trading since PI withered into a husk. Man, I love taking other people's money
First place in California Senate Primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Kern County: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeTogfJoeQE
Haiti Prime Minister resigns in March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Who are you talking to?
Apsalar
1 year ago
The best argument that this can be resolved now (rather than tomorrow or whatever) is that the reuters article counts as a major news outlet reporting that he announced his resignation. However, the reuters article falls short of that at the moment. It reports that *someone else* said that the Haitan prime minister announced his resignation. It does not confirm this itself.
Portugal Legislative Election
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Not even close lol
Apsalar
1 year ago
@PaeniscusCapital the combined Dem Alliance is still over 30, right?
Portugal Legislative Election
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
THEY SAID IT COULDN'T BE DONE!!!
Portugal Legislative Election
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Sorry sir, nothing personal. I was able to get 10-1 odds on the socialists taking first. They're going to get so close.
SGTBAXTER
1 year ago
Trust me as a Portuguese myself that wouldn't be funny at all PNS is the 2n guy from the corrupt and dirty ex Prime Minister Jose Sócrates that stold allegedly more than 300 M€ and i really doubt that they will win, hope the people aren't dumb enought to vote on such low life as PNS unless they do some funny games with the elections...
Portugal Legislative Election
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I know it's not going to happen, but PS overtaking AD for 1st would be incredibly funny
Portugal Legislative Election
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
LFG
lronmexico
1 year ago
There goes AD >30% as Lisboa reports its votes.
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Solid comment bro, but let's keep that kind of smart thinking on the down low. The comment section is mostly for the insane people to ramble on about frivolities.
justalgo
1 year ago
Be careful with different datasets : in the ERA5 dataset Jan 2024 is way above Jan 2016 (by about 0.15°C), but in the NASA dataset Jan 2024 is only 0.03°C hotter than Jan 2016. In fact, 2016 winter is low in the ERA5 dataset and high in the NASA dataset. And it's confirmed by JRA data. I'm not sure about this market resolving to "No", but cheap "No" shares are interesting. I think the result will be between 1.36 and 1.40
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Lol 12% for the anomaly, but like 1-2% in terms of global temperature of the earth.
0x-JayBee
1 year ago
ERA5 Anomaly is 12% higher in Feb 2024 than Feb 2016, so there is a decent margin of safety despite the GISS discrepancies
First place in California Senate Primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's crazy that you think that ppl are buying tens of thousands of shares bc they are misreading a website.
WilliamS
1 year ago
there seems to be a huge misundertanding between the "open primary" (where currently schiff is leading) and "special open primary" (where currently Garvey is leading). See https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-california-us-senate.html This poll is about the "open primary".
Will Sinema announce she's running for re-election?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Stay golden, traderboy
Bitcoin all time high today?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Yes Holders: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ten_gA_Fp6Q
Bitcoin all time high today?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Squeeky bum time.
'Dune: Part Two' Opening Weekend Box Office
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's a domestic (North American) box office market
Lezan
1 year ago
so dune did 178milion in the opening week globaly. Why is the bet >100milion still at 1ct?
What price will BTC reach in March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Not sure what the bug is, it shouldve paid out many hours ago. Will ask in the Discord if it hasn't paid out by tonight. Feel free to ask yourself.
Alicia
1 year ago
Why "Hit 60,000" can't redeem
Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
We don't know when or if it lost communication at this point...nearly certain we'll find out today
Divyesh
1 year ago
Why isnt this resolved yet wtf
The First Modulithic Debate
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Hm, seems quite sketchy
Will 'Dune: Part Two' get a 90% or higher Tomatometer Score?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Dune doubters BTFO.
NYC trucker strike for Trump by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Is there a significant strike? Definitely not. Are you trying to scam? Probably.
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
Is there a significant strike? Probably. Is UMA going to recognize this fact? Unlikely.
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Calm down bro.
Grinded
1 year ago
Haley CANNOT win! Why is it so hard for people to accept the hard TRUTH! i guess she is running on something happening to trump
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
My hope and guess is that it's not until the next week that they do the ceremony
OneMoneyPlz
1 year ago
Hmm, looks like they will be voted in on Monday. Kinda tight but lets see
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Nikki Haley, if you are reading this, please DO NOt drop out.
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Not good, folks
truthteller
1 year ago
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1759717994924540037
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
What does 20/2 mean
n/a
1 year ago
20/2
NYC trucker strike for Trump by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
There is not a single newbie on yes (the make-believe side). In fact, all of the newbies seem like they figured the market out better than a lot of the regulars did.
0xaf
1 year ago
WARNING: If you're new, DO NOT BET in this market. It's one of many 'vague rule' markets on PM and resolution will likely be disputed. The outcome will not be as connected to the title and actual event or your understanding of it as you might expect, but rather more how well you understand PolyMarket and how it resolves vague, ambiguous rules. Instead, stick to the 'template' like markets on PolyMarket that have very clear, well defined rules and have been repeatedly created and resolved on PolyMarket without dispute. Examples of low dispute template markets that are good for new users: elections / candidacy, sports,crypto prices, airdrops, oscars/grammies, movie rev, fed rate / inflation / employee#s, global temps, and stock prices. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
yeah, just proposed
JesusHChrist
1 year ago
So is this over or what?
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Lol, what? I can't tell if you're being serious. If you are, that's not going to be a thing.
trialseed
1 year ago
Rules cuck on the title. "Deadpool & Wolverine" ≠ "Deadpool 3"
Will Israel invade Lebanon before March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Maybe we can post our way to an invasion
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
@trialseed What are your thinking for Other, broski?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before March?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
It's like the graph for this market, except upside down
0xaf
1 year ago
https://imgur.com/a/MQPZtfz
Super Bowl: Taylor Swift shown more than 5 times?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Imagine thinking this is a good point
ooops
1 year ago
Seems like she's usually on screen max 5 times not more and not even that long...
What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Play bad, get there.
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Man, how lucky did the Zelensky Yes people get lol. SMH.
What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Man, how lucky did the Zelensky Yes people get lol. SMH.
What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I was surprised by the pricing in "gay" and "Zelensky." Putin doesn't really use the word gay often that I'm aware of, and he famously never uses Zelensky's name (I think only once).
What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
No way
VVeedla
1 year ago
Does “homosexual” count as “gay” or not?
Edmonton Oilers longest winning streak in NHL history? (>17 games)
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I just love the Golden Knights
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
Why does Domer hate the Oilers so much?
Will Tucker Carlson interview Putin in February?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Who? Navalny?
Iomipo
1 year ago
Tucker Carlson will interviews some other guys , not putin
Will Sinema announce she's running for re-election?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
me and you traderboy, mano a mano
Is John McAfee alive?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I'll split it with you if you want to propose it
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
Hmm.... someone should propose this for resolution. He's dead.
US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
SkeletonWaiting.jpg
BUBASIIK
1 year ago
Well, now we have two days. I believe some official or media will link the sanctions or recent strikes on Yemen and Syria to retaliation for the Drone deaths.
US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
There is a tiny percent chance, yes, but it's not something to worry about.
Agnimandur
1 year ago
Is there any way this resolves as YES?
US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
UMA will be deciding that once 50p proposes, he is just praying that there is another event so he doesn't have to pay $750 to hear their answer.
WiserthantheCrowd
1 year ago
Today a new package of sanctions was announced against Sudan, Myanmar and Iran among others. Sorry but this package isn't related to this event in case you're trying to make that connection.
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Its already the law in many states and countries...
Brovadana
1 year ago
It would be an incredibly stupid law, but that hasn't often stopped them before.
Houthis strike U.S. military by end of January?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Lol. Israel's main ports are on the Med. And the ship they struck today was carrying RUSSIAN oil.
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
Shipping to Zionazi Israel is shut down, dumbfuck Domer. You lose. Houthis win! 🥳
Houthis strike U.S. military by end of January?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
This market is funny, the Houthis are trying REALLY HARD to strike the US military, but they can't do it lol.
Oscars: Best Actor
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Things are tough for MND, scalping pennies.
Trump and Biden debate before Election?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Can it, you clown.
0xaf
1 year ago
"a virtual debate" made this market totally pointless.
How much $ did MrBeast’s Twitter post with 124m views make?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Is it possible to tip negative dollars?
ZAnon
1 year ago
Tip me if you find this helpful ;) good luck fellas
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
坐下来，保持安静
Censouf
1 year ago
China can not invade Taiwan. Taiwan is chinese. You can't invade yourself.
Continued US strikes against Houthis?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Lol, it's like they forgot one target or something. What a crappy way to lose a bet.
Continued US strikes against Houthis?
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
I don't think this is true, but if it is true, then please post the proof.
Jaytje
1 year ago
There have already been airstrikes on Houthi’s after January 12, 12:00 AM ET.
Last update on May 11, 2025, 9:57 AM ET
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