#4
Rank
582
Comments
417
Likes Received
30
Likes Given
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
It's not. It's a Senate speech, not a nomination. You've lost the plot.
0
0x271226c212c5f76aFDcEd7fbadd197b71bE7...9
2 months ago
From the Senate Congressional Record, "and as Attorney General, he has nominated Matt Gaetz" https://www.congress.gov/118/crec/2024/11/19/170/171/CREC-2024-11-19-pt1-PgS6623-2.pdf
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
That is a Senate speech by Tommy Tuberville lol. Surely you are joking.
0
SAMURAICAT
2 months ago
What happened on RFK Jr?
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
After Gaetz withdrew his name, traders see a 15% chance of his planned nomination being pulled.
0
SAMURAICAT
2 months ago
What happened on RFK Jr?
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Shameful dummies letting Car exit his dumb trade with a profit
4
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Did you post it before you read it?
1
Car
2 months ago
bye bye Domer https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-industry-jockeys-seats-trumps-promised-council-2024-11-21/
Who will be Trump's Attorney General?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Dang, I really thought Gaetz would get the job
3
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
DryCat would never
8
ScienceDog
2 months ago
why did I sell my NO for 1 cent at the last second dude
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
It looked like Yes when it happened, but there was no proof. And I said this at the time. Now we got it.
2
YoungFatWalletUwU
2 months ago
This is insane, so yes voters have basically hijacked this bet by proposing yes, based on literally one article, from one writer from some sketchy news site, even tho there is no reporting from any respected news outlet, let alone multiple. By the way with anonymous sources? WTF. No one going to dispute this? This is literally a scam.
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
I was almost sure this happened, was just waiting for the final proof 👍
5
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Posting stuff from months ago, smh.
0
denizz
2 months ago
"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Goodnight. "The U.S. State Department will not withhold arms from Israel, according to State Department officials, a month after the White House sent a letter to Israel stating the Jewish state had 30 days to improve the humanitarian conditions for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip or be subject to an arms embargo."
1
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
The richest guy in the world is not going to become a government employee? That is really shocking
7
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
The alleged "embargo" of bulldozers also says it started months ago. It also seems like it would be hard to disentangle embargo from delay. An embargo is a very serious matter.
0
denizz
2 months ago
The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Setting aside whether it's an embargo or not, article is from MAY. This market begins in October.
0
denizz
2 months ago
The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
If we have strong proof that the US conducted an attack, but the US is refusing to confirm it (possible, but I think unlikely), then I think the market should be a YES. But there is no remotely strong proof.
0
FelipeG
2 months ago
What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
I appreciate the mostly honest analysis, but I don't think it is honest to say there is a consensus around Oct 24/25. It is a single source (Houthi media, with no proof), repeated in different places citing Houthi media.
1
FelipeG
2 months ago
What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Smell ya later
1
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Anyone who claims they heard God in that clip either needs to be arrested for scamming, or get their hearing checked. Or maybe they're the messiah reborn. One of those 3.
9
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
wait what is the point of your account? to lose money betting on the most inept countries in the world?
6
XiJinPing
2 months ago
@truce ty for your donations lol
Ballon d'Or Winner
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
SCAM!!!!!!!
2
Ballon d'Or Winner
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
If Rodri wins, I will DISPUTE!!!
4
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Pretty sure this is Yes, but how is it going to be proven?
0
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Very logical!
0
Regalia
2 months ago
Reasons why I think Alaska is correct: It was Alaska in 2020 and 2016. DeSantis has a bad rep with Trump and Trump supporters. Alaska is overwhelmingly male and men don't care about Roe V. Wade. Women care a lot about Roe V. Wade and Florida is majority women.
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Yes I agree there is a decently large chance that they attack again, which is why the market is so high!
1
EmpirePending
3 months ago
guys ive just come across this market i had/have no position, but theres countless news articles saying it happened so what's going on with this?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
How is it "mostly" if they invented it?
0
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
So the CNN report is blatantly made up?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
He made it up
0
MeisterOd
3 months ago
BBC News Headline: Not a Single Gram of Israeli Gunpowder Has Fallen on Iraqi Soil Date: October 27, 2024 - 12:00 UTC The Iraqi government has reiterated its commitment to ensuring the security of its territory, stating that no Israeli military gunpowder or munitions have fallen on any part of Iraq. This announcement comes as part of the government's efforts to address concerns regarding Iraq's defense capabilities and the security situation in the region. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense emphasized its ongoing efforts to maintain peace and stability on an international scale. The country continues to prioritize strengthening its border security and being prepared for external threats through international cooperation. Moreover, officials indicated that they are closely monitoring ongoing conflicts and political developments in the region, assuring that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the safety of the Iraqi people. Iraq aims to enhance its relationships with neighboring countries and work towards stability. This situation is viewed as part of broader changes in Iraq's internal security and defense policies. The government is focused on gaining international support to bolster the country’s security.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Why are you guys making stuff up?
0
MeisterOd
3 months ago
BBC News Headline: Not a Single Gram of Israeli Gunpowder Has Fallen on Iraqi Soil Date: October 27, 2024 - 12:00 UTC The Iraqi government has reiterated its commitment to ensuring the security of its territory, stating that no Israeli military gunpowder or munitions have fallen on any part of Iraq. This announcement comes as part of the government's efforts to address concerns regarding Iraq's defense capabilities and the security situation in the region. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense emphasized its ongoing efforts to maintain peace and stability on an international scale. The country continues to prioritize strengthening its border security and being prepared for external threats through international cooperation. Moreover, officials indicated that they are closely monitoring ongoing conflicts and political developments in the region, assuring that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the safety of the Iraqi people. Iraq aims to enhance its relationships with neighboring countries and work towards stability. This situation is viewed as part of broader changes in Iraq's internal security and defense policies. The government is focused on gaining international support to bolster the country’s security.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
So the CNN report is blatantly made up?
2
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
If they attacked, Centcom will confirm that they attacked.
0
EmpirePending
3 months ago
guys ive just come across this market i had/have no position, but theres countless news articles saying it happened so what's going on with this?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Get in losers, we're losing
2
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I imagine this will be the last comment posted here, so I just want to say it was a lot of fun. I will see y'all on the next market!
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Nice!
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I've got gadgets and gizmos aplenty.
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm tired of rooting for the Decepticons, they always lose. I am switching to Autobots. And that is OFFICIAL.
1
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm thinking of switching sides
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm thinking of switching sides
15
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 13 others
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
FYI to No holders, there is an alternate and easier way to bet No on this. So let's say you have $100 that you want to put on No, instead of buying the shares in this market, what you have to do is turn off your phone and computer, take the $100 from your wallet, and put it directly into the trash.
9
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
It's a compelling argument at first, but according to the gold paper, an LLC Trump controls will have a 22.5 percent ownership stake and will receive the majority of fee revenue. That definitely would make it his coin.
0
SureBet745
3 months ago
This cant resolve to yes if the title is: "Will Trump launch a coin before the election?". He didn't. Someome licensed his brand name.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
KEEP PUSHING!!!!
2
# of named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
It's a dumb bet, but dumb bets are very fun
1
Ylescaps
3 months ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season I have no idea why anyone is betting less than 14 , literally all forecasting systems predict 17+
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Scam.
1
AlfredVanderbilt
3 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/DefiantPress/status/1844068113450762423.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Imagine how braindead you have to be to think anything these idiots are saying is important
5
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Wow, they have added NBA legend Luol Deng to the WLFI team. That's huge.
3
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
"or a consensus of credible reporting"
0
0xCA5b97fF74548bD6b1a9eebCCc00aDc4178fB1aC-1726662322581
3 months ago
What if they destroy installations in Iran, but don't admit it?
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Whatever Zach has is contagious I guess
0
JakeAirdropFarm
3 months ago
its because you don't need all 7 to win. You need maybe 4, and there are many combinations of those 4. Whereas to win all 7 there is only one combination to get you there, so it's less likely than either of them winning. In fact it's so unlikely that either one of these candidates wins all 7 states that I think the market is severely mispriced and I am nearly full porting on No here. No should be trading at 90 cents minimum
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
You are having trouble with probabilities. Maybe plug your question into ChatGPT and it'll teach you rudimentary stats.
0
Zach21z
3 months ago
The inconsistencies among these betting questions are funny. How can Kamala Harris have a 45% chance of winning the election, but according to this, Kamala or Trump have a 35% chance of winning every swing state (which most people believe Trump will win)? If Trump wins all of these, then Kamala has a 0% chance of winning, not 45%
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
John McCain would be very proud of the bomb Iran bonders.
1
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
holy shit, they did it
3
Israel military response against Iran in October?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Yawn.
2
MAGA-TRUMP-MAGA
3 months ago
Nothing ever happens. Nothing happened yesterday and nothing will happen today
Will there be another debate?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The X spaces have gone so well so far, that seems like the best place for them to make their final message to hundreds of millions of voters. The technology is reliable and proven.
8
Matter15
3 months ago
Trump is a narcissist and Kamala likes making a fool out of herself, there will be another debate, more than likely an x spaces debate
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
1. Relax. Switch to decaf. This is not that serious. 2. Trump had already launched NFTs prior to this market. There was a clarification in June saying tokens launched before the market would count. What kind of idiot would think that a market would be created that was already Yes many months prior?
1
Mountainman
3 months ago
An NFT is a token. If you don't know that you should try this thing called "Google" it can help you figure it out. Furthermore, we are past that now, so no need to bring it up, unless you are trying to confuse people. We now have something even slow adults like yourself consider a token.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
No offense, but I think only an insane person would think that the NFTs should count
3
Lawyered.eth
3 months ago
I capitulated due to the Oct 15th possible drop date. I did not expect that (and still think it may just be to cash grab, and delay launch).. I stick to my thesis, though. The following are facts. 1) This is poorly written. 2) If WLFI drops a token, trump is probably "involved" on a balance of probabilities. 3) the nft's ought not to be included, logically speaking 4) mountainmain is a bad faith actor, moreso than anyone else on this board
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Not sure what to tell you, you posted a bunch of pumping comments and then sold a large share of Yes. Your actions speak for itself.
2
Car
3 months ago
Everytime the price goes up, JustKen appears and starts panicking in the comments xD
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I didn't say it had anything to do with anything, it's just funny.
0
Mountainman
3 months ago
Oh look, the #1 scammer on this site posting something that has absolutely nothing to do with the market resolution.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Really funny, just a bunch of protocols and buzzwords and DeFi over and over again.
2
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
https://medium.com/@wlfi/world-liberty-financial-seeks-to-revolutionize-finance-with-a-defi-protocol-that-will-be-built-for-3ec1f34ae7ac
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
https://medium.com/@wlfi/world-liberty-financial-seeks-to-revolutionize-finance-with-a-defi-protocol-that-will-be-built-for-3ec1f34ae7ac
2
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Smh
3
Car
3 months ago
Token sale starting next week
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm flying a plane over the storm right now I only measured 108 mph.
3
n/a
3 months ago
justscam rn: nah id rigg
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Yes
0
OrangeCat
3 months ago
Votix is scam? right?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Lol what a scam from IPSOS
4
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Dav Kleiman invented Bitcoin and then became an NFL reporter
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
And if you are one of the people who say "it's definitely not rosa parks, that is impossible", you might be a racist.
2
gun
3 months ago
unpopular opinion but i think rosa parks is satoshi
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Yes holders spamming the comment section instead of buying, never a good sign lol.
13
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This is a travesty
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
These are two different markets. That market requires troops entering. This market requires an invasion intent on control. Through the conclusion of the market on September 30th at midnight, there was no evidence of anything besides targeted raids. This is the opposite of trying to control an area, it is in fact leaving immediately.
0
zynyz
3 months ago
"Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" Resolved Yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This information is not contradictory, it's the movement of troops and the passage of time. Israel moved in more forcefully on October 2nd.
0
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
3
zynyz
3 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I think they voted for the actual truthful outcome. I've made that clear from the outset. Yes holders ignored the information
0
n/a
3 months ago
So you’re clear it has nothing to do with what the actual truthful outcome is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
2
HaterzLoserz
3 months ago
The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
For over a year, my username on this site was "UMA Is A Global Terror Network." For a lot of the reasons that you are pointing out now. Be that as it may, this was not really a uma issue, this was a yes holder issue.
0
McLarry
3 months ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
You're right, I didn't specifically lay out the process. In the past, I have been very critical of how concentrated the uma token is and how opaque the voting process is.
2
McLarry
3 months ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The point is that nobody rigged it, and the result was predictable. What happened was, and I posted this also quite often, is that the yes holders only listen to other yesholders. It resulted in catastrophic confirmation bias, driving the price higher on bad information. And then it was becoming clear that the yes holders who were too stubborn to sell even as the price skyrocketed, were going to be very pissed off once reality set in.
1
zynyz
3 months ago
JustKen: Guys we rigged it a long time ago, your fault for still thinking its not rigged
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I feel like I was very clear and consistent and posted quite often that yes was very likely to lose. Before the votes were revealed, yes was trading at $0.60 for hours
7
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
They determined that the invasion started around October 2nd, which matches reality.
0
zynyz
3 months ago
hard to take a market serious that votes reverse in "in september" and "before November" market
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Can you help me understand this one? The yes side had more whales.
0
Carlossss
3 months ago
I think this vote is a turning point for PolyMarket, succumb to the whales or give an image of impartiality and credibility
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Never understood this one. A buffer zone would imply no control by either side.
0
mona.lisa
3 months ago
It has to go 'yes'. Israel explicitly spoke of forming a buffer zone out of Lebanese territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Here's the plan, we get the Yes price back to 70c. UMA will be forced to side with us.
14
·
Liked by Donkov, aenews2 and 12 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I don't reveal until the end, otherwise that is unfair.
0
PolyPollUser
3 months ago
JustKen, fhantombets, and their buddies ran a psyop campaign to reveal all their votes as soon as possible, and they could only muster 700k votes 🤣 🤣. Poor "whales" . The No's have no chance.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Chad needs to be drug-tested before he makes any bets
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
He DMs voters behind the scenes and tries to get them to vote with him
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
3 months ago
Imagine already knowing that domer will "manipluate the markets" and still staying on yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The only person that I'm aware of that attempts to manipulate markets is AEnews. I am sure you'll change your mind about manipulating a market when you hear that. He is currently trying to manipulate it in favor of Yes.
0
PolyRig-Fried
3 months ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Good song!
1
HsB34sgg
3 months ago
This one's for our little buddy Domer. We know what you did. We all saw it. Bad Domer! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSEhgxihjm4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
6
McLarry
3 months ago
Domer has the problem that if No were to win, that would massively damage Polymarkt's reputation, apart from his own. This will be heard here for months to come, especially if the last fool sees the commencement of the invasion as such in retrospect. He would prefer the price to collapse now because people have supposedly come to the realization that no is right.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
https://i.ibb.co/CKmgjDj/nELMT2q.png
8
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
8
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
18
·
Liked by Donkov, mango-lass... and 16 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Are you joking or being serious? This market was trading at $0.75 for yes, pumped up by Chad, when UMA voted against Yess
1
McLarry
3 months ago
Serious question (this time really): Has there ever been a dispute where the significantly more expensive side lost? In the disputes I've seen so far, it has always been the case that people bought extremely cheap shares and wanted to push their investment 20x, 50x, or even higher
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
i don't like having any shares at all during UMA votes dude
0
Car
3 months ago
you should buy more NOs actually. This price is too good to not to!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
source: guy who has dealt with 10,000 UMA votes
2
sleepyjoesleeper
3 months ago
source: just trust me
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Why is already adjuticated in quotes? It was already adjuticated lol.
2
denizz
3 months ago
The final review is winnable for YES because the facts are on our side. But we need to make our case. There is a lot of kneejerk resistance on the discord to going from "too soon" to "yes", because it was "already adjudicated".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This is delusional, but its not any more delusional than any of the other delusional arguments.
0
HaterzLoserz
3 months ago
October 1st, IDF statement saying "Operation Northern Arrows will continue according to situational assessment". This statement is referencing the operation of the previous night, the events which happened within the Sept 30th timeframe eastern time. For yes to trigger, i believe we simply need to show that the events of October 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc are a continuation of Operation Northern Arrows which began on September 30th at the latest, which is why the market started moving so much. The no camp wants to argue basically that operation northern arrows isnt a thing, or somehow the events of late September 30th were separate from Operation Northern arrows, which we have established by now isnt true and so has wide media consensus. The previous P4 vote was to establish this clarity, which has now been achieved. P2 Yes. https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
If Chad wasn't distorting the price, where would this be trading, 8c?
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
After seeing the movie Megalopolis and becoming a much smarter person, I am now even more certain that this is No.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This price is crazy, man 😂
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
With such unanimous coverage, some videos of this invasion should be readily available. Thus far we've seen a Fox News guy talk about hiking through the woods, and then leaving again back to Israel.
0
HsB34sgg
3 months ago
By 8:59 PM ET, September 30th, Reuters, The Guardian, Forbes, The Telegraph, NPR, the Independent, the BBC, The Times of Israel, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail, Al Jazeera, and many more ALL confirmed the invasion. Both Israel, and the IDF then confirmed the invasion within the timeframe specified in the rules. Israel had initially asked for a media blackout, but had to confirm given the flood of media reports. THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO RETRACTIONS!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Were you in a cave when this also happened last time and they all got BTFO?
0
aldynspeedruns
3 months ago
i am insane, im a fish, there's no liquidity, nobody's buying NO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
You care more about my P&L than I do. I'm just a kid having fun out here.
1
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
3 months ago
please ask chatgpt for copium
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Waste of money tbh
0
Otter-KING
3 months ago
Is someone disputing?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
The market was at 75c yesterday and I said people were nuts to price it like that. I think 23% is equally nuts given UMA was nearly unanimous.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
3 months ago
All what you trying to do here is trying to push No prices to get out early. "extremely, extremely likely" refers to at least 23% losing chances for JustKen, sure.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
People bet that Israel was invading, it was an assumption that they would behave like they did in Gaza, going in with thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks/vehicles. That didn't happen. The prediction was wrong, and now you're trying to get bailed out.
2
McLarry
3 months ago
So you're not an opera singer because you can't sing (except here in the comments, you sing a lot), you luckily binked 8th place in the WSOP and act like consistently beating MTTS/CGs isn't significantly more challenging and now you're focusing on ripping off little people who put a few dollars on bets and are stupid enough to think they'll get paid out when the event happens. INTERESTING
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Looks like it's 70% over for the Walz holders atm.
1
Tac1776
3 months ago
Msnbc,cbs,politico, fox has called cance the winner. Everywhere u look online says vance won. Its over gor the walz holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Reminder that the crucial piece of information is from the UN, who said on October 1st: "The information [the UN peacekeepers] have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion."
9
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.
8
Justifax
3 months ago
This video is referencing 'minutes after the order was given' .. I've been told that this is Sept 30th. https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19 If anyone has better proof that this is from Sept 30th, I'd appreciate it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Thank you.
2
Phoenix777
3 months ago
a real kind person...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
As a young boy, I hoped to one day grow up to an opera singer. That got derailed with a freak accident with a pelican a number of years ago, and I briefly entered seminary school, before dropping that and becoming a poker player. After coming in 8th place in the WSOP main event, I retired from poker and became a Polymarket trader full time. Let me know if you require any other explanation.
5
n/a
3 months ago
Explain yourself justken
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm sorry that you don't think 54k is enough exposure. It's not impossible to go Yes. I am just trying to set expectations given the number of pumpers in here shilling nearly hopeless Yes, including yourself.
2
Fredi9999WASP🐝
3 months ago
Buy more then, why are you sitting at 54k
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
9
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Voting No was not an option. The market was proposed before the end-time, so it cannot go No.
1
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
3 months ago
https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
17
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Aye aye cap'n
0
McLarry
3 months ago
I see myself a bit like the captain of the Titanic. It's an honor to go down with my Yes Shares. Better than winning without decency.
How many viewers will the VP debate get?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Snooze fest
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
it should be out by the end of December
3
Clenc
3 months ago
when we will have the ipsos poll ?
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
When Walz called JD Vance a "simp" is that a slur or not?
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
And u believe the MSM lies????
0
PokerBrat
3 months ago
Twitter is saying vance won
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Vance's eyeliner started run right at the end there, hopefully he cleans it up during the commercial break
7
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
N-word, M-word, S-word, T-word, W-word, A-word, L-word, U-word, E-word, R-word, B-word, V-word, and there's about a dozen more.
0
n/a
3 months ago
Define a list of included slurs.
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I heard debate, played it for other people who all heard debate.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
It's a tough scene for Yes when the UN, the IDF, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese army all say the same thing
5
Ferguson,Turd
3 months ago
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed on Tuesday for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to be respected, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. "An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs," Dujarric said in a statement, adding that Guterres spoke with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati earlier on Tuesday, telling him the U.N. was ready to help those in need. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad "The Secretary-General will continue his contacts, and his representatives on the ground will also continue their efforts to de-escalate the situation," Dujarric said. He later told reporters at a briefing that U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, had seen sporadic incursions by the Israeli military. "The information they have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm using Gaza as my guidepost. There, the IDF clearly invaded with a large occupying force. Here, it's very unclear what is happening, and all reporting indicating they are entering, doing a raid, and leaving again. If you have evidence that they entered and are staying to try to control territory, then I would agree with you that the market should be a yes. Is there evidence for that?
6
McLarry
3 months ago
Just to be clear, and so there's no flip afterward, if there are Israeli troops in Lebanon right now, then this market is a yes, right Ken? Not that you're looking for another narrative change later
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
22
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 20 others
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1290308846543179802
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
One of the downsides of using an AI is that you can guide it to the answer that you want. This is exactly what you did in that screenshot. Do you have any examples where you were unbiased?
4
Car
3 months ago
I just did: https://chatgpt.com/share/66faa6c9-c678-800a-97c0-46ad611ced89
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
To me, this is now fairly conclusive that the special forces are in there for recond, so then it becomes a question of whether recon counts as "combat operations." It seems 50 Pence has an extremely strong opinion on this question!
3
Car
3 months ago
"Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Lol, that's funny but not sure that is very compelling. You don't want a "v" in there at all if you want No to win.
0
HighRoller
3 months ago
Raids are PvE, not PvP. No combat operations to be seen here.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
28
·
Liked by n/a, roniferrar... and 26 others
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
It's uncanny how much ChatGPT and I agree on disputes lol
8
HaterzLoserz
3 months ago
Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.
4
Porcoddio
3 months ago
Not only this was not combat operation, they didn't even mention the EXACT date. Now seriously, is this a joke? Do you see any troops right now in Lebanon? This Pence mfer should pay for his theft.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm a bit confused what the evidence for Yes is tbh
6
Porcoddio
3 months ago
lol, this market should be resolved as No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
its gizmodude, a known nutcase.
1
nicekitty
3 months ago
anyone buying 5 shares to comment as often as you is a red herring
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
To me this is less likely here because there isn't a hostage scenario. But the short answer is that the intention would be to soften up the enemy and make sure when your major troops enter, they encounter as little resistance as possible. So hypotheticaly, they go in and kill some Hezbollah operatives in a town or something and then leave. Here is a link to the small raids from last year -- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-mounts-limited-gaza-ground-raids-puts-hostage-number-222-2023-10-23/
2
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
Can you link the "small raids not counting" bets? Why would Israel enter; but not with the intention to control?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
As far as the nutcases spamming in here, if the IDF conducts small raids in Lebanon where they enter and leave, this market will be NO and the troops enter market will be YES. If they start a ground offensive, this market will be YES. We went through this last year in Gaza with small scale missions not counting.
4
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
OOPS! NASA mistakenly sent the Starliner back up instead of SpaceX Dragon, and now they're trapped again. Dang. Bad luck.
1
birdnest
3 months ago
nasa astronauts coming home!
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
I'm not sure we can trust hezbollah's word, they are a terrorist organization
4
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
This is NOT over. Hezbollah is attempting to locate his limbs, glue him back together, and reanimate him.
17
·
Liked by NickNoName, ArtVandala... and 15 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Please do not engage with this dumbass lol. His argument is that Hezbollah now controls Northern Israel because they're bombing it and civilians have been displaced.
2
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Pretty sure the Israelis killed the worms as well
3
SPYontheQs
3 months ago
He's worm food
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Hezbollah planned for this, and just unveiled MechaNasrallah. He's half robot!
8
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
In the event of Nasrallah's passing, the next in line to lead Hezbollah is Rashida Tlaib.
8
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Many are saying this!
1
Car
4 months ago
JustKen, the worst trader ever.
Will there be another debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Calling Puck "news" is kind of interesting, I guess.
2
CAPNCOOK
4 months ago
From a Puck News article today (it's behind a paywall): "Meanwhile Trump also remains fixated on the aftermath of his debate with Harris, and the taunting, open invitation from her camp for a rematch. Indeed, despite Trump's public proclamations that he's through with debating, having already "won the debate" in his own mind, the debate debate is not over inside Mar-A-Lago. Numerous Republican allies have been pushing for a do-over, especially after Harris accepted a CNN invite for an October face-off. And Trump appears to be doubting his initial instinct to walk away from the battlefield. I'm told that Trump is back to asking advisors if he should reconsider. The vice presidential debate is on Tuesday, and some people around the former president suspect that it will be hard for him to let J.D. Vance to have the last word on the debate stage. "If it's so boring, or if J.D. loses, Trump may want to have another lick" said one of his advisors.
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
He's going to meet him and KIDNAP HIM.
2
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
They call him Lyin' Don. He holds the Bible high and he lies and he lies.
2
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
DIdn't think I owned any shares, but looks like I have 500 shares of No. I think its No (so far) tbh.
7
Helene landfall at what category?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
we love Helene!
0
Sakuya
4 months ago
what a cute and funny storm
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
its still possible but unlikely
0
Kaelos
4 months ago
Is it really ended ? Neither CZ and $EIGEN are out, there's still a chance ?
NFL Thursday
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Let's bet on this shit!!!!
1
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
going with 80% odds this post was written by an AI bot
1
ShadowKing
4 months ago
This market is not about predicting gender, but rather about whether Huobi will issue an announcement before September 30th. I believe resolving this as a 50-50 split is inappropriate because it deviates from the market's original intent, is misleading, and could even cause those who guessed correctly to lose money. If Huobi does not issue an announcement, the funds should be returned to the participants.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Lol Russia
0
Will Beeple's Everyday feature SBF and Diddy today?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Obvious
2
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Oof. Big loss for me.
6
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Kaplan sounds like he wants to adopt her.
5
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Wow this just took a very political turn from Caroline Ellison: "If I go to jail, I will have to undergo a sex change by order of Kamala Harris."
5
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Good luck gents, we'll see how it goes
4
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
一个男人。当然!
2
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
OH GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2
jayminho
4 months ago
JUSTKEN IS OFFLOADING his “NO”
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
That's a big bet, good luck!
0
TimeQuestion
4 months ago
Just because Car is a scammer, doesn't mean Caroline is one as well. Don't put the wrong person in jail!
Walz and Vance shake hands at first debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
What if they briefly touch fingers, but Walz pulls his hand away and brushes the side of his hair down and says "Gotcha"
13
·
Liked by n/a, Car and 11 others
Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
EZ D
0
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Yeah, 5 months ago
0
debased
4 months ago
one day miss in 3 months or so bet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
[All new information]: Wow, this confirms my bet is great.
2
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
State of Emergency declared for all of Israel
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Horrible bet that was bailed out
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Great time to invade with their forces weary and stretched thin, low global support, and high aggression from its neighbors.
2
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Scared of your own shadow, buddy?
7
XiJinPing
4 months ago
Just sold all my NO... this looks scary... spiraling out of control fast, and it's not even October yet
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
I'm the market maker
4
TCA
4 months ago
maybe its the market maker
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
So don't trade it
0
Justifax
4 months ago
This market is a dispute magnet. Israel will feint into Lebanon, Hezbollah will claim it, and people will dispute.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Correct
3
babendums
4 months ago
Time served resolves to "no prison time" yes, correct?
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
I ain't afraid of no NOAA, bring them on
2
smfjaw
4 months ago
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Hold the phone...WAIT A MINUTE....another colossal Russian failure? There must be a mistake.
5
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
No
3
JustBen
4 months ago
does nft count?
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
He is appealing to the Supreme Court, and if that doesn't work, he'll go straight to the Pope himself.
1
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
LOCK HIM UP
1
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Fingers crossed.
0
dreamin
4 months ago
https://x.com/RenzoGov/status/1835776164272767338
Who will the Teamsters endorse?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Ez
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Big time credit to me for constantly warning the 25bp holders that they were making a bad bet. I tried!!!
12
·
Liked by ArtVandala..., tsybka and 10 others
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Yes.
1
Remontada
4 months ago
Domer, can we laugh just at ZionLion? Is that okay?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Smell ya later.
2
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
gl guys, nobody is allowed to laugh at either side that loses (except for the No Cut losers)
11
·
Liked by mastershif..., ArtVandala... and 9 others
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Oh the biggest market maker on the site is market making?
2
PunishedCK
4 months ago
Justken is selling off his 50bps clip and fudding 25 bps at the same time. Take that as you will 50 bps bros.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
25bp holders close your eyes and ears for this truth bomb: 1-month T-bills currently pricing 50bp at 95% odds.
7
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Why are you weirdos shuffling to 25bp?
11
·
Liked by joefrommcd, n/a and 9 others
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
How do you plan to spen your winnings?
2
BellyGiggles
4 months ago
where is bro basedboi
Blonde Broker vs Ashley
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
The girl who was 50 pounds heavier than the other was only at 60c to win lmao.
2
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Bonds pricing 50bp at over 90% lol.
6
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
They bought millions of dollars of No in "No Change", and converted them to Yes shares. batman is basically risking $2.2m to win $33k.
2
PBet
4 months ago
Some of you have ridiculous high amounts in the 50/25 decrease. Even if you have bought both so they cancel each other out, why do you tie up thousands of dollars on this website?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Lol
1
VERTIX
4 months ago
Powell never said that will cut rates today on this meeting. He only said that the time has come that's all
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
sadly Yatsen and kiwi both too scared to take a position
0
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
The ole switcheroo.
2
fungiy
4 months ago
rate hike not rate cut gg
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Inflation is out of control, either pause or raise rates
2
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
We're so back, it's so over, we're so back, it's so over
5
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Anyone know how to put this guy on ignore?
7
🪦🦁🪦
4 months ago
like i said. the banks that liquidated forst on Archegos, stole the Alpha illegally from the rest of the losing banks. and made Credit Suisse to collapse also, unintentionally. or intentionally maybe too.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Good game 25bps
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Damn, so many people still in denial
4
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Wow, I took massive profits on stupid Trump shit? That's craaaazy.
1
itsok
4 months ago
You just bought 10k yes...
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
What's that? People on the other side of my bet got BTFO? You're telling me now for the first time.
8
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
One thing that Yes still can hang their hat on is that the Trumps have never overpromised and underdelivered in their lives.
11
·
Liked by n/a, XiJinPing and 9 others
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Coin deployment imminent.
6
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
0 bp is down over 10% today (1.7 to 1.5)
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
You're welcome!
6
Lopgft
4 months ago
Thanks for the free money
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Interesting
2
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Called it, he voted for Trump in 2016 lmao
1
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Owning an AK47 is more in line with a Trump supporter
4
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
It's amazing that the price changes leads me to want to buy a different side, its almost like these are dynamic unrepeatable events with no fixed pricing
0
Car
4 months ago
so you are saying "Lock her up" then getting filled on NO, because people that follow you, fill your orders based on your comment. Got it.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
The point of a 50bp cut is to accelerate the path back to neutral, which is where you want rates to be in an economy that is doing just fine.
2
0xe0f3208b94bBD4D1a3dEe319D4d574747297D82
4 months ago
Fed: "The economy is doing very well. No signs of any weakness"...... Also fed: "We are going to do a 50bps decrease as our first cut"
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
FYI I pointed out to Polymarket that they screwed up. Polymarket rarely fixes these things after clarifications. I agree with you. They switched the market under your feet. Not sure it'll be fixed either.
1
Lucky31
4 months ago
how can we dispute this market
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Just noticed the clarification lol. That is total bullshit. Wtf? Lol.
6
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
If we all hold our hands and BELIEVE, we can make 50bp happen
11
·
Liked by ThisIsRowa..., n/a and 9 others
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
NO CUTS!!!
2
Petro1
4 months ago
they're not cutting it people...
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
It's all a scam, the Fed isn't even real. BIDEN!!!!!
1
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Lock her up
3
DOTA 2: The International Champions
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
don't be an idiot dude, its a typo
0
0x33cf2b9183b5fB0ABAA4f809409E2Aa48BaEd71b-1722896857982
4 months ago
technically if Gaimin wins they would be "other" right? xD
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Yawn. Prediction market resolves a market to "vibes" again.
6
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
UMA is one of the dumbest products ever invented, and it barely works. Sorry you're dealing with that.
0
0x83A5D6E94e3Cec7b6ee8570F0b06B9F43a8240Ce-1720411004722
4 months ago
Annoying. I've got 750 usdc on polygon in my wallet, wallets connected, still days insufficient balance. Wtf
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
The mics were both muted and unmuted while the other candidate is speaking, so how does this resolve...?
3
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
It was reported before the debate that they would keep the markets unmuted it if they thought something newsworthy might be said
6
SusanWarren,HR
4 months ago
For many of the times though the microphones are demonstrably muted. How should this resolve?
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
her mic was 10000% unmuted there lol
8
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
something went a little wrong early on but it ended up being okay, lost a few bucks on that
0
asdf4
4 months ago
He bought yes too. He curretly holds a net 4 yes. Probably some strategy I don't understand.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Hey dummy, you've found the most frictionless place on the planet to bet on interest rates.
20
·
Liked by 0xE42c9d2e..., basedd and 18 others
Kdot86
4 months ago
This is a funny market. There are a million ways to bet on interest rates with way less friction than a crypto exchange. This place is 100% people insider trading ex cons lol
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
What can I say, I liked Inside Out 2
6
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Interesting attempt
11
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 9 others
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
This won't work 99% of the time, and def will never work when there is a picture of the player attached to the market.
2
n/a
4 months ago
I have no idea how Polymarket treats typos in rules and how strict they are… but “Caitlyn Clark” is not a player in the wnba and cannot win. “Caitlin
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Global warming is fake and so are hurricanes
14
·
Liked by aenews2, SaulGoodma... and 11 others
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Durov was released from prison into a police car, and then released from the police car into a new cell.
9
·
Liked by AugustoPin..., CheerfulPe... and 7 others
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
So many comments
0
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Jeesh, that sucked being on Team No for a minute there, back on the side of the good guys.
6
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
To be honest, I have no idea what is happening
8
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
So easy. Good guys win, bad guys lose.
3
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Shout out to my other Yes bros. Team No is full of incels.
10
·
Liked by NIGGA, tsybka and 8 others
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
He should be free, TBD if they do it
5
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
UMA hard at work bungling something else
10
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 8 others
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
If that happens, I will lose a lot and you will make a lot so I am rooting against that
1
truthteller
5 months ago
Barash added that since the Biden administration’s review of marijuana has been expedited at every stage, the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform is optimistic the proposed rule will be finalized this year.
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Last one out please turn off the lights
8
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Rules: If Harris broadly states she agrees with Biden's policy proposals, and one of Biden's policy proposals is to tax unrealized gains, it will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - she must explicitly support the specific proposal.
1
Butch09
5 months ago
Isn't this market pretty much ready to be resolved? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-supports-tax-unrealized-193900073.html
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
If people are buying or selling based on inane comments, they have larger problems in their life.
2
Car
5 months ago
now they are all gonna sell because of your comment. a few minute ago the bought at 8ct because of your comment. when do you realise it?
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
You really should be banned
2
Car
5 months ago
REKT no holders
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Bad guys winning (for now)
8
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I have PTSD from losing so much on the wrongfully expired ones.
3
ceasar
5 months ago
Buy some more big man!
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Good guys winning (so far).
12
·
Liked by Apsalar, baal and 10 others
Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
the madman won't stop!
4
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
The market expires when marijuana is rescheduled. If it's not rescheduled for whatever reason (lawsuits, waiting period, whatever), it can't expire yes yet.
2
CheerfulPessimist
5 months ago
Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
For whatever it's worth, I gave ChatGPT the news article and the rules of the market, and it indicated that CZ was still incarcerated.
0
Sit
5 months ago
why has it not been resolved then?
Will RFK drop out before November?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Well that was a scam lol.
5
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Imho this was a clear No and UMA likely would've voted it No if it was disputed, and the clarification is ridiculous
26
·
Liked by baal, hillary2wi... and 24 others
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Can you cite a single example of a politician who was dropping out who said "I encourage you to vote for me"?
5
@Joshua
5 months ago
Suspending, withdrawing, exiting, call it what you like. All the same, obviously a Yes IMO.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Ukrainain control continues to expand lol. Moscow wen?
6
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I think it should be Yes, but this seems like a very dumb fight so I don't want to get too involved lol.
2
Fred19999
5 months ago
Should we be worried that JustKam whale has taken up position on the Yes side?
Kamala or Trump convention speech gets more viewers?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
...?
2
CaptainMoneybags
5 months ago
Republicans have families so less TV's per person
Will George Bush speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
It could definitely happen, but hopefully not
3
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Is Beyonce a Trump supporter or a Kamala supporter?
1
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Update on today's protest -- they are sitting in lawn chairs, hanging out and chatting -- https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1826664309352718355
5
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
i don't know anything about this, but it seems like they're pretending to be mad and failing on purpose in order for $$$
3
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
They were so close to winning, dang.
0
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.
11
·
Liked by Car, n/a and 9 others
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
These protesters are proactively nowhere near the DNC. They made that choice on purpose. They're in fact at a different and specific place (the Isareli consulate) protesting. How is this even a debate...?
3
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
8
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
WE'RE BACK.
1
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
So "behind enemy lines" is just...everywhere?
1
DiversifyYoBonds
5 months ago
Any protest by those with behind enemy lines are publicly stated to be protesting the DNC
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
NOT ENOUGH
1
0x54A598106e0467DaCc1A4cEd3909582f72aAEe3D-1723093936269
5 months ago
How many tweets now ?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Why are you so obsessed with me?
2
New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
So is your mother
7
n/a
5 months ago
Trump overpriced
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Gotcha, well I didn't personally hear it. If the market didn't react, seems like it might be a tough sell.
0
DeucePapi
5 months ago
He literally didnt say Walls correct one time
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Didn't hear any mispronunciations, I am shocked. He said like 80 names lol.
1
Biden DNC Speech: O/U 30 minutes?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
This was a really close one
3
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Neo-Nazi -- DING
0
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
What'd he say?
0
bbman1214
5 months ago
Is Joey? a wrong name?
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Anyone who owns yes on alley cat needs their head examined
8
Will Biden finish his term?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Drop out! Drop out!
2
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Just singing a song, I think that would be a No for me. If they intro'ed the song or said something after the song, like "Make sure y'all support Kamala out there" (a few sentences like that) then I think the totality of what occurred (song + remarks) would be the equivalent of a speech.
2
BedardiRaja
5 months ago
Ok but if Charli or Taylor just perform their songs, would it be considered as speech?
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Will Michelle attempt to wrest the nomination away from Kamala if she gives a speech?
7
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I'm right behind him, I have a Key West shirt on
0
BigMike11
5 months ago
Curious what feed people are watching?
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Looks like Trump bought no in Illegal Immigrants
8
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
More like 20+ times
0
Eyebrows
5 months ago
Shoulda had a debate 5+ times market it looks like
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Boom! Drill baby drill pays out TWICE!
2
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
MYVAG -- Make Your Venezuela Again Great
10
·
Liked by NeverForge..., idfkanythi... and 8 others
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
This nerd better mention crypto.
6
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
At least you still have your cat
5
Catlover255
5 months ago
I got liquidated
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
That was it, final tweet for the week. Congrats to all 3 holders. See you next Saturday.
0
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
Two good punch lines, now he is done for the week.
0
diddy
5 months ago
Guys it’s insane spending so much money on +10, he can’t put up so many ads and overshadowed the previous good punch lines
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago