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🤺JustKen
0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
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#2
Rank
527
Comments
382
Likes Received
28
Likes Given
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
6 hours ago
Smh
Car
8 hours ago
Token sale starting next week
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustKen
20 hours ago
I'm flying a plane over the storm right now I only measured 108 mph.
GamblerXi
20 hours ago
justscam rn: nah id rigg
Milton landfall at what category?
🤺JustKen
21 hours ago
Yes
OrangeCat
21 hours ago
Votix is scam? right?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustKen
1 day ago
Lol what a scam from IPSOS
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
Dav Kleiman invented Bitcoin and then became an NFL reporter
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
And if you are one of the people who say "it's definitely not rosa parks, that is impossible", you might be a racist.
gun
2 days ago
unpopular opinion but i think rosa parks is satoshi
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
2 days ago
Yes holders spamming the comment section instead of buying, never a good sign lol.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
This is a travesty
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
These are two different markets. That market requires troops entering. This market requires an invasion intent on control. Through the conclusion of the market on September 30th at midnight, there was no evidence of anything besides targeted raids. This is the opposite of trying to control an area, it is in fact leaving immediately.
zynyz
3 days ago
"Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" Resolved Yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
This information is not contradictory, it's the movement of troops and the passage of time. Israel moved in more forcefully on October 2nd.
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
zynyz
3 days ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
I think they voted for the actual truthful outcome. I've made that clear from the outset. Yes holders ignored the information
n/a
3 days ago
So you’re clear it has nothing to do with what the actual truthful outcome is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
HaterzLoserz
3 days ago
The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
For over a year, my username on this site was "UMA Is A Global Terror Network." For a lot of the reasons that you are pointing out now. Be that as it may, this was not really a uma issue, this was a yes holder issue.
Greta-Tunafish
3 days ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
You're right, I didn't specifically lay out the process. In the past, I have been very critical of how concentrated the uma token is and how opaque the voting process is.
Greta-Tunafish
3 days ago
Next time, please make a tweet or podcast explaining exactly how the UMA process works. Instead of just reading from their marketing materials, provide a detailed explanation of who holds how many tokens, what the practices are, and who Batu is. It would be really cool of you, as there hasn't been anything from you on this topic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
The point is that nobody rigged it, and the result was predictable. What happened was, and I posted this also quite often, is that the yes holders only listen to other yesholders. It resulted in catastrophic confirmation bias, driving the price higher on bad information. And then it was becoming clear that the yes holders who were too stubborn to sell even as the price skyrocketed, were going to be very pissed off once reality set in.
zynyz
3 days ago
JustKen: Guys we rigged it a long time ago, your fault for still thinking its not rigged
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
I feel like I was very clear and consistent and posted quite often that yes was very likely to lose. Before the votes were revealed, yes was trading at $0.60 for hours
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
They determined that the invasion started around October 2nd, which matches reality.
zynyz
3 days ago
hard to take a market serious that votes reverse in "in september" and "before November" market
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
Can you help me understand this one? The yes side had more whales.
n/a
3 days ago
I think this vote is a turning point for PolyMarket, succumb to the whales or give an image of impartiality and credibility
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
Never understood this one. A buffer zone would imply no control by either side.
n/a
3 days ago
It has to go 'yes'. Israel explicitly spoke of forming a buffer zone out of Lebanese territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
Here's the plan, we get the Yes price back to 70c. UMA will be forced to side with us.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
I don't reveal until the end, otherwise that is unfair.
n/a
3 days ago
JustKen, fhantombets, and their buddies ran a psyop campaign to reveal all their votes as soon as possible, and they could only muster 700k votes 🤣 🤣. Poor "whales" . The No's have no chance.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
3 days ago
Chad needs to be drug-tested before he makes any bets
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
He DMs voters behind the scenes and tries to get them to vote with him
Kobafix
4 days ago
Imagine already knowing that domer will "manipluate the markets" and still staying on yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
The only person that I'm aware of that attempts to manipulate markets is AEnews. I am sure you'll change your mind about manipulating a market when you hear that. He is currently trying to manipulate it in favor of Yes.
PolyRig-Fried
4 days ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
Good song!
HsB34sgg
4 days ago
This one's for our little buddy Domer. We know what you did. We all saw it. Bad Domer! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSEhgxihjm4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
Greta-Tunafish
4 days ago
Domer has the problem that if No were to win, that would massively damage Polymarkt's reputation, apart from his own. This will be heard here for months to come, especially if the last fool sees the commencement of the invasion as such in retrospect. He would prefer the price to collapse now because people have supposedly come to the realization that no is right.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
https://i.ibb.co/CKmgjDj/nELMT2q.png
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
Are you joking or being serious? This market was trading at $0.75 for yes, pumped up by Chad, when UMA voted against Yess
Greta-Tunafish
4 days ago
Serious question (this time really): Has there ever been a dispute where the significantly more expensive side lost? In the disputes I've seen so far, it has always been the case that people bought extremely cheap shares and wanted to push their investment 20x, 50x, or even higher
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
i don't like having any shares at all during UMA votes dude
Car
5 days ago
you should buy more NOs actually. This price is too good to not to!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
source: guy who has dealt with 10,000 UMA votes
sleepyjoesleeper
5 days ago
source: just trust me
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
Why is already adjuticated in quotes? It was already adjuticated lol.
denizz
5 days ago
The final review is winnable for YES because the facts are on our side. But we need to make our case. There is a lot of kneejerk resistance on the discord to going from "too soon" to "yes", because it was "already adjudicated".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
This is delusional, but its not any more delusional than any of the other delusional arguments.
HaterzLoserz
5 days ago
October 1st, IDF statement saying "Operation Northern Arrows will continue according to situational assessment". This statement is referencing the operation of the previous night, the events which happened within the Sept 30th timeframe eastern time. For yes to trigger, i believe we simply need to show that the events of October 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc are a continuation of Operation Northern Arrows which began on September 30th at the latest, which is why the market started moving so much. The no camp wants to argue basically that operation northern arrows isnt a thing, or somehow the events of late September 30th were separate from Operation Northern arrows, which we have established by now isnt true and so has wide media consensus. The previous P4 vote was to establish this clarity, which has now been achieved. P2 Yes. https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
If Chad wasn't distorting the price, where would this be trading, 8c?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
5 days ago
After seeing the movie Megalopolis and becoming a much smarter person, I am now even more certain that this is No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
This price is crazy, man 😂
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
With such unanimous coverage, some videos of this invasion should be readily available. Thus far we've seen a Fox News guy talk about hiking through the woods, and then leaving again back to Israel.
HsB34sgg
6 days ago
By 8:59 PM ET, September 30th, Reuters, The Guardian, Forbes, The Telegraph, NPR, the Independent, the BBC, The Times of Israel, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail, Al Jazeera, and many more ALL confirmed the invasion. Both Israel, and the IDF then confirmed the invasion within the timeframe specified in the rules. Israel had initially asked for a media blackout, but had to confirm given the flood of media reports. THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO RETRACTIONS!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
Were you in a cave when this also happened last time and they all got BTFO?
aldynspeedruns
6 days ago
i am insane, im a fish, there's no liquidity, nobody's buying NO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
You care more about my P&L than I do. I'm just a kid having fun out here.
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
6 days ago
please ask chatgpt for copium
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
6 days ago
Waste of money tbh
Otter-KING
6 days ago
Is someone disputing?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
The market was at 75c yesterday and I said people were nuts to price it like that. I think 23% is equally nuts given UMA was nearly unanimous.
Kobafix
1 week ago
All what you trying to do here is trying to push No prices to get out early. "extremely, extremely likely" refers to at least 23% losing chances for JustKen, sure.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
People bet that Israel was invading, it was an assumption that they would behave like they did in Gaza, going in with thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks/vehicles. That didn't happen. The prediction was wrong, and now you're trying to get bailed out.
Greta-Tunafish
1 week ago
So you're not an opera singer because you can't sing (except here in the comments, you sing a lot), you luckily binked 8th place in the WSOP and act like consistently beating MTTS/CGs isn't significantly more challenging and now you're focusing on ripping off little people who put a few dollars on bets and are stupid enough to think they'll get paid out when the event happens. INTERESTING
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Looks like it's 70% over for the Walz holders atm.
Tac1776
1 week ago
Msnbc,cbs,politico, fox has called cance the winner. Everywhere u look online says vance won. Its over gor the walz holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Reminder that the crucial piece of information is from the UN, who said on October 1st: "The information [the UN peacekeepers] have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.
Justifax
1 week ago
This video is referencing 'minutes after the order was given' .. I've been told that this is Sept 30th. https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19 If anyone has better proof that this is from Sept 30th, I'd appreciate it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Thank you.
n/a
1 week ago
a real kind person...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
As a young boy, I hoped to one day grow up to an opera singer. That got derailed with a freak accident with a pelican a number of years ago, and I briefly entered seminary school, before dropping that and becoming a poker player. After coming in 8th place in the WSOP main event, I retired from poker and became a Polymarket trader full time. Let me know if you require any other explanation.
n/a
1 week ago
Explain yourself justken
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I'm sorry that you don't think 54k is enough exposure. It's not impossible to go Yes. I am just trying to set expectations given the number of pumpers in here shilling nearly hopeless Yes, including yourself.
Kobafix
1 week ago
Buy more then, why are you sitting at 54k
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Voting No was not an option. The market was proposed before the end-time, so it cannot go No.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
1 week ago
https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Aye aye cap'n
Greta-Tunafish
1 week ago
I see myself a bit like the captain of the Titanic. It's an honor to go down with my Yes Shares. Better than winning without decency.
How many viewers will the VP debate get?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Snooze fest
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
it should be out by the end of December
Clenc
1 week ago
when we will have the ipsos poll ?
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
When Walz called JD Vance a "simp" is that a slur or not?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
And u believe the MSM lies????
FinallyHappening
1 week ago
Twitter is saying vance won
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Vance's eyeliner started run right at the end there, hopefully he cleans it up during the commercial break
Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
N-word, M-word, S-word, T-word, W-word, A-word, L-word, U-word, E-word, R-word, B-word, V-word, and there's about a dozen more.
n/a
1 week ago
Define a list of included slurs.
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I heard debate, played it for other people who all heard debate.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
It's a tough scene for Yes when the UN, the IDF, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese army all say the same thing
UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts
1 week ago
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed on Tuesday for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to be respected, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. "An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs," Dujarric said in a statement, adding that Guterres spoke with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati earlier on Tuesday, telling him the U.N. was ready to help those in need. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad "The Secretary-General will continue his contacts, and his representatives on the ground will also continue their efforts to de-escalate the situation," Dujarric said. He later told reporters at a briefing that U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, had seen sporadic incursions by the Israeli military. "The information they have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I'm using Gaza as my guidepost. There, the IDF clearly invaded with a large occupying force. Here, it's very unclear what is happening, and all reporting indicating they are entering, doing a raid, and leaving again. If you have evidence that they entered and are staying to try to control territory, then I would agree with you that the market should be a yes. Is there evidence for that?
Greta-Tunafish
1 week ago
Just to be clear, and so there's no flip afterward, if there are Israeli troops in Lebanon right now, then this market is a yes, right Ken? Not that you're looking for another narrative change later
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1290308846543179802
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
One of the downsides of using an AI is that you can guide it to the answer that you want. This is exactly what you did in that screenshot. Do you have any examples where you were unbiased?
Car
1 week ago
I just did: https://chatgpt.com/share/66faa6c9-c678-800a-97c0-46ad611ced89
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
To me, this is now fairly conclusive that the special forces are in there for recond, so then it becomes a question of whether recon counts as "combat operations." It seems 50 Pence has an extremely strong opinion on this question!
Car
1 week ago
"Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Lol, that's funny but not sure that is very compelling. You don't want a "v" in there at all if you want No to win.
HighRoller
1 week ago
Raids are PvE, not PvP. No combat operations to be seen here.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
It's uncanny how much ChatGPT and I agree on disputes lol
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.
Porcoddio
1 week ago
Not only this was not combat operation, they didn't even mention the EXACT date. Now seriously, is this a joke? Do you see any troops right now in Lebanon? This Pence mfer should pay for his theft.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I'm a bit confused what the evidence for Yes is tbh
Porcoddio
1 week ago
lol, this market should be resolved as No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
its gizmodude, a known nutcase.
n/a
1 week ago
anyone buying 5 shares to comment as often as you is a red herring
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
To me this is less likely here because there isn't a hostage scenario. But the short answer is that the intention would be to soften up the enemy and make sure when your major troops enter, they encounter as little resistance as possible. So hypotheticaly, they go in and kill some Hezbollah operatives in a town or something and then leave. Here is a link to the small raids from last year -- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-mounts-limited-gaza-ground-raids-puts-hostage-number-222-2023-10-23/
Foreseeable.
1 week ago
Can you link the "small raids not counting" bets? Why would Israel enter; but not with the intention to control?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
As far as the nutcases spamming in here, if the IDF conducts small raids in Lebanon where they enter and leave, this market will be NO and the troops enter market will be YES. If they start a ground offensive, this market will be YES. We went through this last year in Gaza with small scale missions not counting.
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
OOPS! NASA mistakenly sent the Starliner back up instead of SpaceX Dragon, and now they're trapped again. Dang. Bad luck.
birdnest
1 week ago
nasa astronauts coming home!
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
I'm not sure we can trust hezbollah's word, they are a terrorist organization
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
This is NOT over. Hezbollah is attempting to locate his limbs, glue him back together, and reanimate him.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Please do not engage with this dumbass lol. His argument is that Hezbollah now controls Northern Israel because they're bombing it and civilians have been displaced.
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Pretty sure the Israelis killed the worms as well
SPYontheQs
1 week ago
He's worm food
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Hezbollah planned for this, and just unveiled MechaNasrallah. He's half robot!
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
In the event of Nasrallah's passing, the next in line to lead Hezbollah is Rashida Tlaib.
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Many are saying this!
Car
1 week ago
JustKen, the worst trader ever.
Will there be another debate?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
Calling Puck "news" is kind of interesting, I guess.
CAPNCOOK
1 week ago
From a Puck News article today (it's behind a paywall): "Meanwhile Trump also remains fixated on the aftermath of his debate with Harris, and the taunting, open invitation from her camp for a rematch. Indeed, despite Trump's public proclamations that he's through with debating, having already "won the debate" in his own mind, the debate debate is not over inside Mar-A-Lago. Numerous Republican allies have been pushing for a do-over, especially after Harris accepted a CNN invite for an October face-off. And Trump appears to be doubting his initial instinct to walk away from the battlefield. I'm told that Trump is back to asking advisors if he should reconsider. The vice presidential debate is on Tuesday, and some people around the former president suspect that it will be hard for him to let J.D. Vance to have the last word on the debate stage. "If it's so boring, or if J.D. loses, Trump may want to have another lick" said one of his advisors.
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
He's going to meet him and KIDNAP HIM.
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
🤺JustKen
1 week ago
They call him Lyin' Don. He holds the Bible high and he lies and he lies.
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
DIdn't think I owned any shares, but looks like I have 500 shares of No. I think its No (so far) tbh.
Helene landfall at what category?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
we love Helene!
Sakuya
2 weeks ago
what a cute and funny storm
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
its still possible but unlikely
Kaelos
2 weeks ago
Is it really ended ? Neither CZ and $EIGEN are out, there's still a chance ?
NFL Thursday
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Let's bet on this shit!!!!
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
going with 80% odds this post was written by an AI bot
Slytherin
2 weeks ago
This market is not about predicting gender, but rather about whether Huobi will issue an announcement before September 30th. I believe resolving this as a 50-50 split is inappropriate because it deviates from the market's original intent, is misleading, and could even cause those who guessed correctly to lose money. If Huobi does not issue an announcement, the funds should be returned to the participants.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Lol Russia
Will Beeple's Everyday feature SBF and Diddy today?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Obvious
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Oof. Big loss for me.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Kaplan sounds like he wants to adopt her.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Wow this just took a very political turn from Caroline Ellison: "If I go to jail, I will have to undergo a sex change by order of Kamala Harris."
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Good luck gents, we'll see how it goes
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
一个男人。当然!
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
OH GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jayminho
2 weeks ago
JUSTKEN IS OFFLOADING his “NO”
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
That's a big bet, good luck!
TimeQuestion
2 weeks ago
Just because Car is a scammer, doesn't mean Caroline is one as well. Don't put the wrong person in jail!
Walz and Vance shake hands at first debate?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
What if they briefly touch fingers, but Walz pulls his hand away and brushes the side of his hair down and says "Gotcha"
Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
EZ D
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Yeah, 5 months ago
basedd
2 weeks ago
one day miss in 3 months or so bet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
[All new information]: Wow, this confirms my bet is great.
HaterzLoserz
2 weeks ago
State of Emergency declared for all of Israel
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Horrible bet that was bailed out
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Great time to invade with their forces weary and stretched thin, low global support, and high aggression from its neighbors.
HaterzLoserz
2 weeks ago
Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Scared of your own shadow, buddy?
XiJinPing
2 weeks ago
Just sold all my NO... this looks scary... spiraling out of control fast, and it's not even October yet
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
I'm the market maker
TCA
2 weeks ago
maybe its the market maker
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
So don't trade it
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This market is a dispute magnet. Israel will feint into Lebanon, Hezbollah will claim it, and people will dispute.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
Correct
n/a
2 weeks ago
Time served resolves to "no prison time" yes, correct?
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustKen
2 weeks ago
I ain't afraid of no NOAA, bring them on
smfjaw
2 weeks ago
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Hold the phone...WAIT A MINUTE....another colossal Russian failure? There must be a mistake.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
No
JustBen
3 weeks ago
does nft count?
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
He is appealing to the Supreme Court, and if that doesn't work, he'll go straight to the Pope himself.
Diddy released from custody by Friday?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
LOCK HIM UP
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Fingers crossed.
dreamin
3 weeks ago
https://x.com/RenzoGov/status/1835776164272767338
Who will the Teamsters endorse?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Ez
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Big time credit to me for constantly warning the 25bp holders that they were making a bad bet. I tried!!!
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Yes.
ArtVandalay
3 weeks ago
Domer, can we laugh just at ZionLion? Is that okay?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Smell ya later.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
gl guys, nobody is allowed to laugh at either side that loses (except for the No Cut losers)
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Oh the biggest market maker on the site is market making?
n/a
3 weeks ago
Justken is selling off his 50bps clip and fudding 25 bps at the same time. Take that as you will 50 bps bros.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
25bp holders close your eyes and ears for this truth bomb: 1-month T-bills currently pricing 50bp at 95% odds.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Why are you weirdos shuffling to 25bp?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
How do you plan to spen your winnings?
BellyGiggles
3 weeks ago
where is bro basedboi
Blonde Broker vs Ashley
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
The girl who was 50 pounds heavier than the other was only at 60c to win lmao.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Bonds pricing 50bp at over 90% lol.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
They bought millions of dollars of No in "No Change", and converted them to Yes shares. batman is basically risking $2.2m to win $33k.
n/a
3 weeks ago
Some of you have ridiculous high amounts in the 50/25 decrease. Even if you have bought both so they cancel each other out, why do you tie up thousands of dollars on this website?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Lol
VERTIX
3 weeks ago
Powell never said that will cut rates today on this meeting. He only said that the time has come that's all
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
sadly Yatsen and kiwi both too scared to take a position
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
The ole switcheroo.
fungiy
3 weeks ago
rate hike not rate cut gg
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Inflation is out of control, either pause or raise rates
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
We're so back, it's so over, we're so back, it's so over
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Anyone know how to put this guy on ignore?
🪦🦁🪦
3 weeks ago
like i said. the banks that liquidated forst on Archegos, stole the Alpha illegally from the rest of the losing banks. and made Credit Suisse to collapse also, unintentionally. or intentionally maybe too.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Good game 25bps
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Damn, so many people still in denial
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Wow, I took massive profits on stupid Trump shit? That's craaaazy.
0x7b23a5j3j1
3 weeks ago
You just bought 10k yes...
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
What's that? People on the other side of my bet got BTFO? You're telling me now for the first time.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
One thing that Yes still can hang their hat on is that the Trumps have never overpromised and underdelivered in their lives.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Coin deployment imminent.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
0 bp is down over 10% today (1.7 to 1.5)
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
You're welcome!
Lopgft
3 weeks ago
Thanks for the free money
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Interesting
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Called it, he voted for Trump in 2016 lmao
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Owning an AK47 is more in line with a Trump supporter
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
It's amazing that the price changes leads me to want to buy a different side, its almost like these are dynamic unrepeatable events with no fixed pricing
Car
3 weeks ago
so you are saying "Lock her up" then getting filled on NO, because people that follow you, fill your orders based on your comment. Got it.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
The point of a 50bp cut is to accelerate the path back to neutral, which is where you want rates to be in an economy that is doing just fine.
ThetaGang
3 weeks ago
Fed: "The economy is doing very well. No signs of any weakness"...... Also fed: "We are going to do a 50bps decrease as our first cut"
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
FYI I pointed out to Polymarket that they screwed up. Polymarket rarely fixes these things after clarifications. I agree with you. They switched the market under your feet. Not sure it'll be fixed either.
Lucky31
3 weeks ago
how can we dispute this market
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Just noticed the clarification lol. That is total bullshit. Wtf? Lol.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
If we all hold our hands and BELIEVE, we can make 50bp happen
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
NO CUTS!!!
Petro1
3 weeks ago
they're not cutting it people...
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
It's all a scam, the Fed isn't even real. BIDEN!!!!!
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
🤺JustKen
3 weeks ago
Lock her up
DOTA 2: The International Champions
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
don't be an idiot dude, its a typo
0x33cf2b9183b5fB0ABAA4f809409E2Aa48BaEd71b-1722896857982
0 months ago
technically if Gaimin wins they would be "other" right? xD
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
Yawn. Prediction market resolves a market to "vibes" again.
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
UMA is one of the dumbest products ever invented, and it barely works. Sorry you're dealing with that.
n/a
0 months ago
Annoying. I've got 750 usdc on polygon in my wallet, wallets connected, still days insufficient balance. Wtf
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
The mics were both muted and unmuted while the other candidate is speaking, so how does this resolve...?
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
It was reported before the debate that they would keep the markets unmuted it if they thought something newsworthy might be said
SusanWarren,HR
0 months ago
For many of the times though the microphones are demonstrably muted. How should this resolve?
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
🤺JustKen
0 months ago
her mic was 10000% unmuted there lol
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
something went a little wrong early on but it ended up being okay, lost a few bucks on that
n/a
1 month ago
He bought yes too. He curretly holds a net 4 yes. Probably some strategy I don't understand.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Hey dummy, you've found the most frictionless place on the planet to bet on interest rates.
n/a
1 month ago
This is a funny market. There are a million ways to bet on interest rates with way less friction than a crypto exchange. This place is 100% people insider trading ex cons lol
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
What can I say, I liked Inside Out 2
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Interesting attempt
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
This won't work 99% of the time, and def will never work when there is a picture of the player attached to the market.
n/a
1 month ago
I have no idea how Polymarket treats typos in rules and how strict they are… but “Caitlyn Clark” is not a player in the wnba and cannot win. “Caitlin
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Global warming is fake and so are hurricanes
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Durov was released from prison into a police car, and then released from the police car into a new cell.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
So many comments
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Jeesh, that sucked being on Team No for a minute there, back on the side of the good guys.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
To be honest, I have no idea what is happening
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
So easy. Good guys win, bad guys lose.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Shout out to my other Yes bros. Team No is full of incels.
Pavel Durov released in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
He should be free, TBD if they do it
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
UMA hard at work bungling something else
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
If that happens, I will lose a lot and you will make a lot so I am rooting against that
n/a
1 month ago
Barash added that since the Biden administration’s review of marijuana has been expedited at every stage, the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform is optimistic the proposed rule will be finalized this year.
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Last one out please turn off the lights
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Rules: If Harris broadly states she agrees with Biden's policy proposals, and one of Biden's policy proposals is to tax unrealized gains, it will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - she must explicitly support the specific proposal.
Butch09
1 month ago
Isn't this market pretty much ready to be resolved? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-supports-tax-unrealized-193900073.html
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
If people are buying or selling based on inane comments, they have larger problems in their life.
Car
1 month ago
now they are all gonna sell because of your comment. a few minute ago the bought at 8ct because of your comment. when do you realise it?
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
You really should be banned
Car
1 month ago
REKT no holders
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Bad guys winning (for now)
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I have PTSD from losing so much on the wrongfully expired ones.
n/a
1 month ago
Buy some more big man!
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Good guys winning (so far).
Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
the madman won't stop!
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
The market expires when marijuana is rescheduled. If it's not rescheduled for whatever reason (lawsuits, waiting period, whatever), it can't expire yes yet.
n/a
1 month ago
Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?
$EIGEN transferable before CZ gets out of prison?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
For whatever it's worth, I gave ChatGPT the news article and the rules of the market, and it indicated that CZ was still incarcerated.
Sit
1 month ago
why has it not been resolved then?
Will RFK drop out before November?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Well that was a scam lol.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Imho this was a clear No and UMA likely would've voted it No if it was disputed, and the clarification is ridiculous
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Can you cite a single example of a politician who was dropping out who said "I encourage you to vote for me"?
@Joshua
1 month ago
Suspending, withdrawing, exiting, call it what you like. All the same, obviously a Yes IMO.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Ukrainain control continues to expand lol. Moscow wen?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I think it should be Yes, but this seems like a very dumb fight so I don't want to get too involved lol.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Should we be worried that JustKam whale has taken up position on the Yes side?
Kamala or Trump convention speech gets more viewers?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
...?
CaptainMoneybags
1 month ago
Republicans have families so less TV's per person
Will George Bush speak at the DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
It could definitely happen, but hopefully not
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Is Beyonce a Trump supporter or a Kamala supporter?
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Update on today's protest -- they are sitting in lawn chairs, hanging out and chatting -- https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1826664309352718355
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
i don't know anything about this, but it seems like they're pretending to be mad and failing on purpose in order for $$$
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
They were so close to winning, dang.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
These protesters are proactively nowhere near the DNC. They made that choice on purpose. They're in fact at a different and specific place (the Isareli consulate) protesting. How is this even a debate...?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
WE'RE BACK.
Mass arrests at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
So "behind enemy lines" is just...everywhere?
n/a
1 month ago
Any protest by those with behind enemy lines are publicly stated to be protesting the DNC
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
NOT ENOUGH
0x54A598106e0467DaCc1A4cEd3909582f72aAEe3D-1723093936269
1 month ago
How many tweets now ?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Why are you so obsessed with me?
New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
So is your mother
n/a
1 month ago
Trump overpriced
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Gotcha, well I didn't personally hear it. If the market didn't react, seems like it might be a tough sell.
UMAisGarbage
1 month ago
He literally didnt say Walls correct one time
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Didn't hear any mispronunciations, I am shocked. He said like 80 names lol.
Biden DNC Speech: O/U 30 minutes?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
This was a really close one
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Neo-Nazi -- DING
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
What'd he say?
1 month ago
Is Joey? a wrong name?
What will Biden say during DNC speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Anyone who owns yes on alley cat needs their head examined
Will Biden finish his term?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Drop out! Drop out!
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Just singing a song, I think that would be a No for me. If they intro'ed the song or said something after the song, like "Make sure y'all support Kamala out there" (a few sentences like that) then I think the totality of what occurred (song + remarks) would be the equivalent of a speech.
1 month ago
Ok but if Charli or Taylor just perform their songs, would it be considered as speech?
Who will speak at the DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Will Michelle attempt to wrest the nomination away from Kamala if she gives a speech?
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I'm right behind him, I have a Key West shirt on
BigMike11
1 month ago
Curious what feed people are watching?
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Looks like Trump bought no in Illegal Immigrants
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
More like 20+ times
Eyebrows
1 month ago
Shoulda had a debate 5+ times market it looks like
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Boom! Drill baby drill pays out TWICE!
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
MYVAG -- Make Your Venezuela Again Great
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
This nerd better mention crypto.
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
At least you still have your cat
Catlover255
1 month ago
I got liquidated
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
That was it, final tweet for the week. Congrats to all 3 holders. See you next Saturday.
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Two good punch lines, now he is done for the week.
diddy
1 month ago
Guys it’s insane spending so much money on +10, he can’t put up so many ads and overshadowed the previous good punch lines
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I was surprised as well, I think it means Kamala is in trouble.
CFTC
1 month ago
What?
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I was just talking to a source with very close knowledge of the DNC inner workings and process. They told me, that without a shadow of a doubt, that you should always try to promote a free retreater after a knockout so you have the option of easily retreating into your attacker if you draw the resources you need or a meat shield if you don't.
What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I accidentally slept through this and a lot of people got free money. Nonetheless, looks like I made around $1k on this market. Lol. Maybe that's the key.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Here's something wild I just learned, you can't spell "Holy shit what an embarrasment" without at least a few letters from the word Russia
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
please do not tell him how it is possible, thank you.
gregus
1 month ago
1m possible but not likely
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Lol, thanks for reminding me
S-1REQUIRED
1 month ago
man i have to stop copying domer in these markets
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Please get a clue man.
StevenBonnell
1 month ago
lol justkam whale is buying up no's for fire up. what a snake
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I don't have to google it, because he also said "Fire."
Timmy121
1 month ago
fired-up is a compound word. Google it.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Total lie. He said fire.
BuckMySalls
1 month ago
He said fired up, not referring to the act of dismissing an employee. It was referring to being animated, can't remember the context in this ramblemageddon. But according to the rules, this is a No.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Please do not be pulled in by the fire scam: "Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market." The other rule only applies to compound words to prevent something like "firestorm" counting. He said "fire."
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
He said fire on its own.
Timmy121
1 month ago
Can anyone confirm he said "fired" on it's own - not "fired-up"?
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
The over/under on Inflation was 80 mentions, and he is at 98 so far.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
basis points
evidence
1 month ago
what is bps
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Other is literally any other movie.
singa
1 month ago
What is the "Other" and why is it at 7% ?
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Why are you so mad?
DioRetard
1 month ago
clown
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Praying that I lose money on this one.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Moron. No offense.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Trump Jr has continously hinted at a Trump crypto currency. I could see it being announced here
Iran military response by Friday?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Don't pump using my position you clown.
Car
1 month ago
JustKam aka Domer going big on YES shares. interesting
Will Stancil wins Minnesota House Democratic Primary?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Okay cool, great.
Trump Hush Money sentence before election?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Will bet anyone $1m that a $1m fine is possible under the law.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Russia is a fake country that does not exist separate from Ukraine on old maps, and the Russians speak the same language as the Ukrainians, it is only natural for the Ukrainain army to attempt to reunify Ukraine and Russia. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Russia has been overrun by Nazis and needs to be denazified. And it is imperative that we support the Ukrainian army's attempts to denazify Russia.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
2.5 months is a long time going up against the very professional Russian Army
Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Perfect username
n/a
1 month ago
Another Dem high tech lynching
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Women and children are being bused out, so you know it's serious.
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
A scary thought, if I didn't already know you're a 5'6" balding manlet who is too scared to leave your own "house." I'll be generous with my definition.
n/a
1 month ago
how about I head to your house instead, Nazi?
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
MrBest, your pretend country needs you!!!!! Head to the front, soldier!!!! "Russia's military isn’t getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses, sources say. Regional officials are failing to meet more than a third of their recruitment quotas on average"
Trump + Elon conversation over 2 hours long?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
When did it start and when did it end?
Trump x Musk space censored in EU?
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Whoever has the 12am shift at the censorship button will be the decider
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Hey my father works at the department of online censorship for the EU and told me they are gonna censor this BS interview. Do what you want with this info
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Just a couple of old dudes talking tampons, as old men usually do.
Loaf
2 months ago
You really think there's only a 16% chance Trump says that Walz mandated they put Tampons in the men's restroom? He said it at his rally in Montana. Elon's been involved in the trans debate. The topic will definitely come up. Buy yes on Tampon for free money.
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
This is why you plowed your entire account into Vance leaving...?
n/a
2 months ago
Was something found in the hacked file?
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Don't bet on my ramblings bro, I don't know what I'm doing here despite what it seems like lol
n/a
2 months ago
gogo justkam
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
I don't know what to make of this market, I am very biased now, but as far as I am aware this is the state of play: Kamala wants to do September 10th. Trump agreed to 3 at once, including September 10th. ABC announces both sides agreed, but didn't post any details (location, venue, etc.). Then Kamala announces she will only agree to 1 debate. So will Trump now renege on his original 3 debate agreement before a location/venue is finalized?
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
There's no venue yet, not even a city -- "If both candidates say they have agreed to a debate on that date but have not settled on a venue or platform, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market."
muusd
2 months ago
Its a Yes - both have said yes, network has said yes. "For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that both candidates announce they have agreed to such a debate. Whether the debate actually occurs will have no bearing on the resolution of this market."
Did Trump launch $RTR?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Were they paid to put this market up?
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
The important thing is we all had fun!
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Maduro is the true OG scam squad.
Apsalar
2 months ago
scam squad might just pull this off
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Oh no, an election market might resolve to the guy who got the most votes
n/a
2 months ago
If it's resole it as Edmundo win, I will leave this platform. Absolute scum
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
What other betting market?
n/a
2 months ago
The current market and situation with the percentages no longer reflect reality (other betting markets in different sites have already closed - Maduro won), but rather reflect the market's expectation of how the UMA community will vote. This is, of course, nonsense because, in essence, the UMA community can act as a political organization that recognizes or does not recognize the official election results. A very interesting situation could arise - the official authorities of Venezuela declared Maduro the winner, all betting markets declared Maduro the winner, Russia + China (+basically the entire anti-Western alliance) recognize Maduro's victory, and only the Venezuella opposition, the USA (+the entire pro-Western world), and Polymarket recognize Gonzalez? Don't you guys think this is no longer betting, but clear political statements?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
As opposed to Maduro's electoral strategy and the Maduro holders arguments, the case for Edmundo can be made by real people using actual evidence. Edmundo has the majority on his side in both cases.
AugustoPinochet73
2 months ago
P1 hodlers wake up! those dirty liberal commies are trying to steal our official results. Don't let them!: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1269708730698829955
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Good shout, reading through that chat, and the Edmundo arguments cite evidence and facts, and the Maduro arguments are like "please sir, endorse the fraud."
AugustoPinochet73
2 months ago
🗣️ Attention Maduro HODLERS! 🗣️ Head to Discord and add your arguments in the arguments channel: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1269708730698829955 Don’t let those commies steal the official results from us! 💪🇻🇪
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
We literally have precinct results from over 24,000 precincts showing Edmundo won, all of which are SIGNED and VERIFIED using a QR Code lmao.
haluk
2 months ago
Yes the election results are shady, but I see no path in declaring Edmundo Gonzales the winner, because all te official statement says Maduro. THis should be settled as MAduro.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
All the Maduro yes holders be like -- https://i.imgur.com/EGkNcxA.png
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Considering nearly 70% of voters voted for Gonzalez, I would say that Venezuela has made its thoughts known on this issue.
AugustoPinochet73
2 months ago
Is Venezuela one of them?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
If it wasn't for the Polymarket intern immediately tweeting "MADURO WON" right alongside Cuba & China, this would be at 95c Gonzalez right now. The opposition preserved the evidence from CNE machines that they won the election, and that the results weren't close. CNE released easily disprovable fake results, and then has refused for a week now to release the precinct results (which violates the law). It's not exactly a shock that there's tons of countries in the Americas who are now recognizing Gonzalez as the winner.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
You say "a stolen victory is a victory" and "stop spreading misinformation" in the same post? Is there zero self awareness?
YatSen
2 months ago
If you ask people without interest, they would acknowledge that Maduro won. Some people bought González shares at under 10c, attempting to cause confusion.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Exacto
Sweetness
2 months ago
The opposition has produced 81.85% of the votes showing Gonzalez winning 67% to 30%. They are sorted by: Country, State, Municipality, Parish, Centers, and Tables. It is CRITICAL to note that every single vote table is accompanied by a photo of the minutes from that polling place. They are signed by the President, Secretary, and an additional member of the table election committee as well as two witnesses and an operator. These votes have been independently verified by dozens of organizations including the AP and others. https://resultadosconvzla.com/
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
1. CNE already broke the law by not releasing the precinct results. 2. The opposition RELEASED THE PRECINCT RESULTS showing an overwhelming win with verified actas that are signed by witnesses, and directly from the CNE machines. Just incredible that people think a fraud that has been proven to be fraud is some "official" thing.
Artem ( Berachain DAO )
2 months ago
CNE is the only official authority who can declaare a winner. This market is fully about oficial Venezuela gov report
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
What are you smoking? You think that it is Polymarket traders "causing confusion" considering this stolen election has been in the world headlines for a week straight?
YatSen
2 months ago
If you ask people without interest, they would acknowledge that Maduro won. Some people bought González shares at under 10c, attempting to cause confusion.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
A few misleading or wrong things in your post. 1. Maduro is still President for a few more months, regardless of who won. There is a transition period. 2. The opposition results are the digitized and certified precinct results from the CNE machines. The Maduro government has refused to release the precinct results to verify their win, which is against the law. 3. They did allow international observers. The Carter Center was there. After the election, they fled the country and released a damning report. 4. I understand the gist of your argument is that CNE's word is law, and that would probably be the case if the opposition didn't go to great lengths to keep and catalog the verified proof that they won the election.
ratz
2 months ago
In the official PM account they say that Maduro being president does not mean that he won it fairly or that he deserves it and I totally agree, it would be very stupid to have a guy here as a winner and that when they go to Venezuela look at someone else, for God's sake, If you search for the president of Venezuela on Google, you won't get the one you have in mind, and it would be ridiculous if it were like that here, and much worse when their rule is to have the CNE as the main source, which does not allow international observers, in principle they made rules wrong and must adapt to them. We all want Maduro to go to the underworld, but bets are bets and if you want to trust the CNE = Fraud, what did you want?
What will Trump say in August?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Based on what I've found, the interview was in the late afternoon, so it's a toss-up whether it was filmed outside the window or not. I also think it'll be close to impossible to figure out when it was filmed, so probably lean towards not counting it. I also think its probably moot as he will probably say the word 10 more times this month.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
A reminder that the CNE has already violated the law by not publishing the full data tables showing the precinct-level results. They were supposed to do so within 48 HOURS. There is a whole story in the Associated Press detailing how the opposition tallied the precinct-level results on their own, showing an overwhelming victory for Gonzalez straight from the CNE machines.
person1
2 months ago
August 2nd, 2024 (in the evening – after all the most recent UWA votes): Venezuela’s Electoral Authority announced 96.87% of votes tallied, with Maduro winner 51.95% (6,408,844) to 43.18% (5,326,104). This margin is mathematically irreversible (unlike the result announced on Monday morning when only 80% of the votes had been tallied). That is, even if Gonzalez gets every remaining untallied vote, he still loses. Therefore, this bet should close and resolve Maduro YES. The bet resolves on “official” information from Venezuela, meaning information from the country’s Electoral Authority (Centro Nacional Electoral). Nothing else is relevant. (https://www.telesurenglish.net/electoral-council-publishes-2nd-bulletin-of-the-venezuelan-elections-results/) (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-electoral-council-says-97-votes-tallied-affirms-maduro-winner-2024-08-02/)
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Still have not released any of the precinct data as required by law
0x0d2cA4faDbF9dC5BfB6077e232a8Dbd8DD50B8cC-1722469029328
2 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-electoral-council-says-97-votes-tallied-affirms-maduro-winner-2024-08-02/
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
In the first 30 seconds she told him she was picking Shapiro, and the rest of the 90 minutes they played Gin Rummy and gossiped about celebrities.
mombil
2 months ago
NEWS: Harris and @PeteButtigieg met today for about 90 minutes about the VP job, sources tell me. The meeting was not at Harris's home in Washington. Source: https://x.com/JarrettRenshaw/status/1819490069608353945
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
With crypto and stocks both crashing, the safest asset in the world is Shapiro for VP.
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
lmao https://x.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/117305483567702016
Democratic VP nominee?
🤺JustKen
2 months ago
Interesting, so confirmation that he was on an IDF base mucking about doing army projects.
Yanoya4sure
2 months ago
Clarification on Shapiro volunteering in Israeli Army - https://x.com/danielmarans/status/1819483558148177970?t=t5LyjlZqK9OC3h8xXWXsug&s=19