Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

There's no indication that Freddi is here to make money though

0

Donkov

6 months ago

Blaming shit on MAGA people is irrational. People are here to make money.

New Diddy charges before November?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

needs to come from the government, not private citizens.

1

FlexLikeOuu

6 months ago

Why is this market still open? Its already sure that they are new charges against Diddy from 6 victims🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Milton landfall at what category?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

The NHC is the source, there is zero room for interpretation.

0

DeucePapi

6 months ago

This market sounds like UMA hell

Milton landfall at what category?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

It's not overhyped, Katrina was also "just" Cat 3, the strome surge and rain is what's getting Florida

0

n/a

6 months ago

Mid to weak 3. 5 doomsayers are msm shills try to salvage their diminishing ad revenue. Trust me, i was actually hoping for Total Tampa Death.

Next UK leader of the Conservatives?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Nice analysis, are you british?

1

Mike2025

6 months ago

This was my analysis from 9 days ago. https://old.reddit.com/r/PoliticalOdds/comments/1fspk4s/next_uk_leader_of_the_conservatives/

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Pain killer

0

PokerBrat

6 months ago

What does he want to drink? Advile? What?

Milton landfall at what category?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Intensity forecast errors for 24/48 hours are just 8 and 12 mph on average, so it is unlikely to be a Cat 5 at landfall

0

General.William.T.Sherman

6 months ago

Winds at 155 as on 2pm update. Intensification continuing

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I feared the same, that's why I sold all my shares. Good luck to you though!

1

Foreseeable.

6 months ago

How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

why do you always comment but never bet

2

ISHOWMEAT

6 months ago

This would be an interesting market for 2025 would say 60% happens in 2025

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

people in jail are being interviewed all the time

2

mona.lisa

6 months ago

Roux is in jail. How would the director have confronted him lmao.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Polymarket needs to hire new developers, Jesus Christ!

3

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

haha, you just can't let go of it..

1

CRYPTU

6 months ago

other is shooting up because people think its Isamu Kaneko

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

scam

0

MarilynMonroe

6 months ago

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TheDefiantNews/status/1843420090525725128

Milton landfall at what category?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

it's expected to weaken before landfall

0

khamzatborz

6 months ago

news talking about 4 and 5 why 3 so high %?

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

this is not what the tweet says

0

latenightdegen

6 months ago

it's on the table as an option... https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1841234972776284322

Diddy sex tape released before November?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

There are rumors that one might be released soon.

2

Radetzky

6 months ago

This went up a lot today. Only speculation or do some people know more?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

they 100% won't add anyone else

0

CRYPTU

6 months ago

put Isamu Kaneko up there and i will bet $10000

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

just buy "other" or stfu

1

CRYPTU

6 months ago

put Isamu Kaneko up there and i will bet $10000

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

What's everyone's opinion, does Satoshi still hold the keys? Would be incredibly fucked up knowing you have Billions of Dollars worth of BTC but not being able to spend it ^^

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

pump and dump, originated on twitter, i believe

0

tomaz

6 months ago

In case you are wondering: There is huge market manipulation here. Some spikes are due to manipulation for memecoins. Right now there were like 4 or 5 memecoins of Adam on solana that went to over 2M MC in minutes. And most of them had the same wallets as top traders.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

that report button seems to be totally useless...

4

SylvesterStallone

6 months ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly. doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

yeah, those are different, it's confusing if you're new to this.

0

EdgyUsername

6 months ago

Oh duh got it. I was using the oracle link, thanks!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

np

1

EdgyUsername

6 months ago

Oh duh got it. I was using the oracle link, thanks!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

click on the market and then on the "results" tab

1

EdgyUsername

6 months ago

I know the link, but how do I find it on there

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

rigged

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

go away, this market has enough scammers already

2

SylvesterStallone

6 months ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238

São Paulo mayoral election 2024

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I think some people didn't think of that when they were placing their 93ct Nunes bet, lol

0

kanyewestlover911

6 months ago

Cade o contrato dessa porra? Segundo turno conta ainda aqui né

Israel military response against Iran in October?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

What's the argument for No? Bibi already promised a swift response, I can't imagine him not delivering, although there is the possibility of them doing some targeted assassinations instead of a kinetic strike I suppose. Or blow up some nuclear facility and make it look like an accident, like they did in the past, in which case the market will get contested again.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Tenebrus' argument is stupid, is what I'm saying

0

HsB34sgg

6 months ago

Where are you getting this "in and out" BS? They go house to house clearing threats inwards, onwards, and forwards. Whoever told you "in and out" was lying to you so you stupidly buy shares. Oopsie!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

If there was no world war during the invasion of Poland, why does the invasion of Poland mark the beginning of the second World War?

1

Tenebrus7

6 months ago

If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Haha, right. Even if only the price of oil rises by a few percent over the long-run due to this, it'll cost me a lot more than the bet.. ^^

0

Cedarville

6 months ago

If they hit nuclear facilities and a bigger war starts, I dont think we're gonna be worrying much about the outcome of this. Which is why I voted no

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

@JustLauraZepam it all depends on the whales, but I think they won't deviate too much, would be pretty wild if every newspaper calls it an invasion but UMA the "truth machine" said No, hahah

0

jeterl

6 months ago

We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Thanks, glad to hear it's not just me. The most annoying thing is getting constantly logged out after I put my browser in the background on mobile..

0

Le-King

6 months ago

Yup

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

only 1.3% of the votes are in, and the first votes aren't usually very representative.

0

jeterl

6 months ago

We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Anyone else encountering like a million different bugs in the recent weeks?

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

You can’t call it the final review until you proof that it is actually *intended* to be the final review. If you can’t proof it, it resolves to No.

0

PolyRig-Fried

6 months ago

Funny, a prediction market that is predicting the past. And the second final review. We need 2 new bets: can Polymarket predict the past and is a final review really a final review or can there be more than one final review?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Man, the bots (corinthians, Cajetan and cigarettes) having a field day with this market.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Hey, feel free to copy paste my argument from 3 comments below into discord, if you feel it sense.

0

BibiNetanyahu

6 months ago

Just checked in on the discord server and boy the NO team is struggling in there. Quick send in reinforcements team NO

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

no, I fully agree. I'm just saying if one wants to make it bulletproof, as some people argue that they didn't intend to establish control. It's ridiculous

0

PolyRig-Fried

6 months ago

no need to wait for november, the event is already in the past. is this a retrocausal prediction market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

2am local time is 7am September 30th ET.

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

As soon as the November market resolves to Yes we have proof that Israel intends or intended to establish control. The invasion started at the lasted on October 1st 2am local time when the IDF announced that they have sent troops into Lebanon. The “intent to establish control” must have been present at that time already, as the Israeli National Security Cabinet approved the "next phase" in its conflict with Hezbollah before that date and there have been no meetings since: Source: https://x.com/AnnaBarskiy/status/1840846261802422415

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

If someone wants to make that argument in Discord, be my guest.

1

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

As soon as the November market resolves to Yes we have proof that Israel intends or intended to establish control. The invasion started at the lasted on October 1st 2am local time when the IDF announced that they have sent troops into Lebanon. The “intent to establish control” must have been present at that time already, as the Israeli National Security Cabinet approved the "next phase" in its conflict with Hezbollah before that date and there have been no meetings since: Source: https://x.com/AnnaBarskiy/status/1840846261802422415

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

As soon as the November market resolves to Yes we have proof that Israel intends or intended to establish control. The invasion started at the lasted on October 1st 2am local time when the IDF announced that they have sent troops into Lebanon. The “intent to establish control” must have been present at that time already, as the Israeli National Security Cabinet approved the "next phase" in its conflict with Hezbollah before that date and there have been no meetings since: Source: https://x.com/AnnaBarskiy/status/1840846261802422415

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

so the November market should resolve No too?

0

Car

6 months ago

Because there is no intent to establish control over regions in Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Apparently the holdup is that we don’t know if they “intended to establish control”, but if November resolves Yes, this logically should resolve Yes too, except if you think they changed their mind about their intent halfway through. Or am I missing something?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

yeah, I'm not a diehard yes, I asked a question, would you care to answer?

0

Car

6 months ago

4 comments, none include proof of what I asked. Typical !

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

*November Yes of course

1

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

If the November market resolves to No, it would prove that there is “intent to establish control” then the only argument for this to resolve to No would be that they established their intent after spet. 30th.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

If the November market resolves to No, it would prove that there is “intent to establish control” then the only argument for this to resolve to No would be that they established their intent after spet. 30th.

0

BibiNetanyahu

6 months ago

Im still waiting for proof that IDF invaded lebanon without the intention to "establish control over any regions of Lebanon". maybe they want to seat and drink tea with hezbollah terrorists

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

thanks for providing an argument. When do you think Israel started to “intend to establish control”? Or do you think the November market is a No too?

0

Car

6 months ago

Im still waiting for proof that IDF invaded before the market end time with the intention to "establish control over any regions of Lebanon". It goes to NO otherwise

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

correction, it was 2 am local: https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Hones question for the No holders, what is your argument for this to resolve to No? We have a statement from the IDF dated October 1st, 1am local time (i.e. still Sept. 20th Eastern Time) that they have troops in Lebanon. Is the argument that these were just “targeted raids” and the “actual” invasion started later? And if so, how many raids have to happen at the same time for it to constitute an invasion? How many troops have to be present in enemy territory for an invasion?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Hones question for the No holders, what is your argument for this to resolve to No? We have a statement from the IDF dated October 1st, 1am local time (i.e. still Sept. 20th Eastern Time) that they have troops in Lebanon. Is the argument that these were just “targeted raids” and the “actual” invasion started later? And if so, how many raids have to happen at the same time for it to constitute an invasion? How many troops have to be present in enemy territory for an invasion?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

local time or Eastern Time, cause October 1st 6:59 am Lebanese time is still Sept. 30th Eastern Time

3

Tentaclecracy

6 months ago

Here you have: the Lebanese government itself has filed a complaint with the United Nations saying that the invasion began on the 1st of October. As per the rules, the September market is NO, and the November market is YES. What else do you need? https://nournews.ir/en/news/192343/Lebanon-files-formal-complaint-with-UN-over-Israeli-invasion

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I'm just curious what UMA the decentralized Truth Machine thinks

0

FamilyCapital

6 months ago

If you ask people from a few countries, most of them gonna give you an answer(date), which will be 2 years later than right one. I'm not gonna tell from which country :)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Can we get a market for World War II, I'd like to know when it actually happened...

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I agree, it is ambiguous, but it is the common phrasing.

0

CYQ

6 months ago

Next Friday is tommorrow. WTF makes up these markets?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Cool, I'd like some in Egypt if possible, for my scuba diving trips. The red sea is amazing.

1

informed

6 months ago

If you are buying Yes for Craig Wright I have beachfront property in Sahara to sell you

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Right, and tomorrow is Shabbat Shuvah, which is even more important than a regular Sabbath.

0

Amok

6 months ago

Shabbat has begun now. Here's what ChatGPT has to say: "Shabbat begins at sunset on Friday and lasts until nightfall on Saturday. The precise timing varies depending on location and the time of year, as it is determined by when the sun sets. In Israel, for example: In October, Shabbat typically begins around 5:30 to 6:00 p.m. on Friday and ends about 6:30 to 7:00 p.m. on Saturday. So, the window for a potential Israeli retaliatory strike today would likely be before sunset, or after Shabbat ends on Saturday night, unless an emergency necessitates action during Shabbat." Retaliating against Iran will be meant to be a show of strength. You don't show strength by abandoning your religious principles. So... Happy Shabbat NO holders.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Scam.

1

NathanPull

6 months ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_TV/status/1841970227657281751

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Scam

1

NathanPull

6 months ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_TV/status/1841970227657281751

Israel military response against Iran today?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

He obviously didn't red the holy books ...

0

palisade

6 months ago

You are a net loser on this site

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

No, tomorrow is "this Friday" and Friday in a week is "next Friday".

6

CYQ

6 months ago

Next Friday is tommorrow. WTF makes up these markets?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I agree, 17ct seems undervalued. Even if they take the holiday into account, they could still attack Friday night. Israel is 7 hours ahead, so they have until 7am Saturday local time to respond for this market to resolve.

2

Altcom

6 months ago

the price fell so much, as if the market expected to be told in advance of the time and place of such a blow if there was one. Obviously these plans are kept top secret, aren't they?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-israel-target-in-iran/will-israel-target-an-iranian-oil-or-gas-facility?tid=1727996636433

1

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Anyone wanting to buy No, you can also buy No here for the exact same price, with less risk:

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Anyone wanting to buy No, you can also buy No here for the exact same price, with less risk:

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

It's from USA Today, and unfortunately I couldn't find any other newspaper reporting something similar

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Your reasoning makes sense, but I think the 70%+ was always a little overvalued. First, Wednesday trough Friday is Rosh Hashanah and second, in April they waited six days too, to strike back.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

well, there's one indication that they still might do it before Saturday: "The person added that the timing of any Israeli strike has also not yet been decided but was expected to be "soon" and would likely not wait for the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah to conclude."

1

Justifax

6 months ago

uhm, isn't that like a tautology?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Your reasoning makes sense, but I think the 70%+ was always a little overvalued. First, Wednesday trough Friday is Rosh Hashanah and second, in April they waited six days too, to strike back.

0

Altcom

6 months ago

the price fell so much, as if the market expected to be told in advance of the time and place of such a blow if there was one. Obviously these plans are kept top secret, aren't they?

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

To my knowledge there only was one against an Iraqi one during the first gulf war, over 40 years ago.

0

denizz

6 months ago

They've done it several times

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I’m only aware of covert operations, like arson or small scale explosions that were never claimed by Israel.

1

denizz

6 months ago

They've done it several times

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Buying yes in one of these markets suggest the following probabilities, should a strike occur, assuming the other market is fairly priced: That it will be an oil facility with a probability of 95%, that it will be a nuclear facility with 30% and that it will be on Tehran with 40% likelihood.

2

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Joe Biden has said the US is discussing with Israel the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. When asked if he would support such strikes, Mr Biden said: "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little... anyway."

1

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

not unlikely that there would be multiple targets, they hit several targets in April as well, but oil *and* nuclear would be a major escalation and Israel doesn't want a war with iran. even just nuclear alone would probably cause Iran to respond. Hoping it’s not oil just for the sake of inflation.. Although I think it's more likely than not.

0

Remontada

6 months ago

This one is a head scratcher.

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Oil prices don't have an end date though. They should have made these markets longer ...

3

ActDrew

6 months ago

Oil prices up almost 5% on fears Israel will strike Iranian oil facilities after Biden's comments

Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Here's where the hold-up's coming from: "Romney grew irritated. “Yeah, but I’ve got 25 grandkids!” he said, throwing up his hands. “How am I going to protect 25 grandkids, two great-grandkids? I’ve got five sons, five daughters-in-law—it’s like, we’re a big group.” This was clearly a problem to which he’d given serious thought, and realized there was no solution. In the weeks after January 6, he’d spent thousands of dollars a day to protect his family from red-capped vigilantes. But how do you hide a family of 40 from a president hell-bent on revenge?"

0

almasudi

6 months ago

[The Atlantic; 9/24/24] There was, of course, one other possibility for Romney’s final act: a position in the next Biden administration. The two men have become unlikely friends in recent years. And according to one person close to the Biden campaign, senior Democrats in the president’s orbit had discussed appointing Romney to a high-profile diplomatic post in a second term, before Biden dropped out of the race. The conversations were hypothetical—ambassadorships aren’t typically doled out six months before an election—but such an offer would presumably be conditioned on an endorsement. And Romney wasn’t sure he could oblige. “Biden’s policies drive me crazy,” he told me. “And one of the reasons I think there are people like me who shrink at the idea of endorsing Biden is, does that mean I endorse his border policies? Or do I endorse giving trillions of dollars to college students to pay their debt?” He knew Trump’s authoritarianism and commitment to undermining America’s electoral system made him more dangerous than Biden. “The fact that if you want to be in the good graces of MAGA world you’ve got to say the election was stolen is extraordinary to me—but that is the test,” Romney said. Still, throwing his support behind a president whose policies he’d spent decades fighting against was a difficult thing to do. He told me he wasn’t ruling it out.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I have a structured settlement but I need cash now!

0

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

@JoebamaBiden, when do you expect them to certify the results?

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I think we can close this now, all votes are counted:

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

great, so now I've got my money locked up in yet another market until eternity because of some formality....

2

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I think we can close this now, all votes are counted:

Super Bowl Champion 2025

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

We're so back!

1

TheGuru

6 months ago

The Ravens will only get better as the season goes on. They could easily be 3-0

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I think we can close this now, all votes are counted:

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

I think we can close this now, all votes are counted:

5

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

They are official.

2

JoebamaBiden

6 months ago

Need official results

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

haha, looking forward to November

0

BuckMySalls

6 months ago

amazing that people infer something from a US presidential election 8 years ago to psyop themselves into a terrible bet on a German state election, it's like watching the NBA finals and then thinking you'll see the same pattern in a women's high school final

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

it was more like the US election 2020, first votes heavily favored afd, but when the bigger precincts report the tide turns.

3

BuckMySalls

6 months ago

amazing that people infer something from a US presidential election 8 years ago to psyop themselves into a terrible bet on a German state election, it's like watching the NBA finals and then thinking you'll see the same pattern in a women's high school final

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

the erststimme is for people (affiliated with a party) though, the second one seems to be for the party.

5

Car

6 months ago

guys Zweitstimmen doesnt even count. Zweitstimmen are only used for coalitions to get a majority. The Erststimmen is what is used to count who "has the most votes"/

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

yeah, even though it is zeitstimme, it's still going to be spd, easily

0

kekkone

6 months ago

So few people here understand how these elections work. But thanks for the money, regardless.

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

with the first one you elect people though, and with the second one you vote for the party.

0

Car

6 months ago

33,62 to 33,65

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

you're on the wrong one

0

Car

6 months ago

33,62 to 33,65

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

did buy everything after the election was over?

1

BuckMySalls

6 months ago

I look forward to doing this exact same maneuver to gullible rightoids in November again

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

are you telling yourself ;) you didn't know either how the voting system with two votes works

0

Car

6 months ago

Dont bet on politics you know shit about.

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

it's down to 1.1 now, but the more votes are counted the more accurate the forecast, obviously

0

Car

6 months ago

1.5% difference left and omly 75% counted. Will end eactly like the TV forecasts predict

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

yeah, that makes sense. if the first vote is for people than that should obv. not count as the rules specify a part

0

JoebamaBiden

6 months ago

I think it makes sense to say that it's the second vote becuase that's the vote for a party.

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

why only second? should be first or both? second sound less important?

0

FamilyCapital

6 months ago

should total to be counted, or only second

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Can we get clarity on which votes count? Apparently you were allowed to cast two votes today? is it one or the other, or is it both combined?

1

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

nope

2

432

6 months ago

3/4 of all votes counted.AFD leading with 3% and 3.5% .......HOT RACE

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

haha, lol. that is exactly the same way Trump claimed the election was stolen in 2020..

0

Car

6 months ago

so yall think the TV forecasts make the numbers up?

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Fuck.

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

6 months ago

Guys chill out, AfD is still way ahead right now. https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

very misleading at the moment

0

Lennart

6 months ago

Live Count: https://wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/12/500/20240922/landtagswahl_land/ergebnisse.html

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

just did

0

Lennart

6 months ago

AFD can still win.

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

then buy

0

Lennart

6 months ago

AFD can still win.

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

i put most of my profit into AfD after I sold, so it's a wash for me. But it is interesting how the price for SPD skyrocketed minutes before the announcement. Too little money though for insiders, maybe a broke intern, haha

0

ncap

6 months ago

Where are the datas out, someone has a link?

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

It's 3% on forschungs gruppe wahlen though.

2

Fredi9999WASP🐝

6 months ago

Its 1% on ARD lol

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

in the past election in thuringen and saxony there was significant movement away from the exit polls. Here we have one exit poll with a 3%-point gap and one with 1% gap. The truth is in the middle, probably. But I wouldn't feel comfortable buying at these prices.

1

Car

6 months ago

The gap is kinda big. I doubt thats gonna change

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

*don't...

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Wouldn't that make the gap wider? they already account for that in the exit polls

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Wouldn't that make the gap wider? they already account for that in the exit polls

0

CalOne1

6 months ago

25% already voted via postal service. Those are typically not AfD voters. So the gap will definitely be smaller in the end

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

we should have held on to those AfD NOs damn it..

0

ncap

6 months ago

Where are the datas out, someone has a link?

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

it's just a 1% difference in the exit polls

0

Car

6 months ago

AfD voters got too cocky and didnt vote probably

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Fuck. Polls were way off, lol

1

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Agree again, wee can also see that in the polls from the website above, SPD got a massive surge the last couple of weeks. Forschn grupe wahlen seems to have a pretty good track record in other state electionsand they still have Afd up one point

1

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

So i found this poll aggregator, don't know how they select the pollsters and if there are more though: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

@start, yup agree. That's why I bought Afd No in the beginning, but at ~55 I'd favour Afd thoigh. Happy to lose money though

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

So i found this poll aggregator, don't know how they select the pollsters and if there are more though: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

Seems like the current odds are more reflective than the ones before. Swithed from Afd No to Yes though.

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

So i found this poll aggregator, don't know how they select the pollsters and if there are more though: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

In Thuringen the afd outperformed the polls(even outside the margin of error), but in Saxony they were pretty spot on

0

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

So i found this poll aggregator, don't know how they select the pollsters and if there are more though: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

So i found this poll aggregator, don't know how they select the pollsters and if there are more though: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

0

Largest company on September 30?

CheerfulPessimist

6 months ago

It already happened at the beginning of the week, for a brief period. If the gap can grow that large in just 5 days it can also be erased just as easily.

2

Mike2025

7 months ago

APPL $3.48T vs MSFT $3.26T. Easy Apple win.

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Thanks. They should negotiate faster, I'm getting bored.

1

syntox

7 months ago

sometimes the negotiations can take a few months, but it's different every time

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

This market is not over whether or not Israel did it or not

1

dfhdhdrh

7 months ago

Why have the mention of "however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" if they're not gonna use it? lol

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Because that part is just the source for the resolution, it pertains to HOW we get the evidence of wheter or not Israel *explicitly claims responsibility*, meaning we don't have to get video footage of Netanyahu saying they did it, but media reporting that HE SAID he did it is enough.

1

dfhdhdrh

7 months ago

Why have the mention of "however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" if they're not gonna use it? lol

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I doubt that this market will get disputed.

0

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I can see where the confusion is coming from. I’m happy to answer any question you have. I’m also happy to be proven wrong, but you don’t have to engage if you don’t want to.

0

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Telegram banned by EU country before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Yeah, they lifted it before it got enforced. Although that wasn’t my point, is irrelevant as there aren't even talks about banning telegram in any EU country at the moment, so this is clearly not gonna happen one way or another.

0

n/a

7 months ago

The mechanism for this happening would be the EU Digital Services Act. It’s possible to apply to a court for suspension of service, which has a 14 day cooling period (and a lot of other steps, but that one is set in stone). So this is 0% before October already.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

The very video you shared says that Israel refused to say whether they are responsible or not.

3

Winner579

7 months ago

Looking decent for yes, I'll take a lil gamble https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dn4qh2rZ6w

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

3rd, the US being briefed after the attack (source: an anonymous government official btw.) holds the same issue. They could have been briefed about anything (Just to illustrate, they could have told them that a state aligned rouge actor was behind the attack, with Israels knowledge or blessing). The key word is again, explicitly. Israel almost never claims responsibility for covert actions on foreign soil, heck they didn’t even claim responsibility for the rocket attack on Iran earlier this year. Unless we get further info, this is a clear No.

2

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

2nd, they informed the US that they were about to do “something” before the attack, per your own source (rules require: “EXPLICITLY claim responsibility”).

2

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Ok so first off, the media stating that Israel was behind it is irrelevant, we all know they were. The consensus of credible reporting pertains to the “Israel explicitly CLAIMS” part.

2

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

You aren't tracking.

0

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

There are several reasons why this doesn’t suffice, but most importantly the US being briefed on the matter does not imply that Israel is even responsible for the attack in the first place, and even less so that “Israel explicitly claims responsibility”.

1

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Right, I read that part, the US was briefed

0

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I can't find any info in either of your articles that states that israel claimed responsibility, could you quote the passage please?

0

the-economic-consultant

7 months ago

As others have mentioned already, Israel has claimed responsibility for the attack to U.S. intelligence. First, they mentioned prior to the attack that they were going to do something (see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/israel-notified-us-lebanon-operation/index.html) and they have said after the attack that they were responsible (see here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/blinken-expresses-frustration-attacks-threaten-derail-israel-hamas-113806266). The Rules does not say that Israel must claim responsibility "publicly". However, the rules do say that intelligence services count as confirmation.

Telegram banned by EU country before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Actually, they banned it briefly, not just talks. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/high-court-orders-temporary-suspension-telegrams-services-spain-2024-03-23/

0

n/a

7 months ago

The mechanism for this happening would be the EU Digital Services Act. It’s possible to apply to a court for suspension of service, which has a 14 day cooling period (and a lot of other steps, but that one is set in stone). So this is 0% before October already.

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

If someone else wants to do a market order, I've got you covered ;)

0

Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Well, on mobile it just says end date, there's no indication that that's just an estimate. Although it's clear here, if you read the rules, it can be cofusing in other markets if you don't know about it.

0

XiJinPing

7 months ago

this skenez guy is so dumb lmao

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Ugh, that bot activity in the order book is making me dizzy.

0

Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

The market goes until the election, not September 30th. The estimated date is wrong.

0

skenez

7 months ago

12 days left, he's just not going to say anything.

Telegram banned by EU country before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

This market isn't specifically about the EU, any country within the EU would suffice. There have already been talks in Spain earlier this year about shutting it down, if memory doesn't fail me.

0

n/a

7 months ago

The mechanism for this happening would be the EU Digital Services Act. It’s possible to apply to a court for suspension of service, which has a 14 day cooling period (and a lot of other steps, but that one is set in stone). So this is 0% before October already.

Iran military response before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Ha! Classic ...

1

XiJinPing

7 months ago

classic fade the panic trade, no attack is happening, buy NO and profit off the panic paper hands

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Does anyone know when we can expect this market to settle?

0

Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

hmm, which one is the one reported in the news and in polls? Can't be seats though, as the title and rules specifically mention votes.

2

n/a

7 months ago

hmm, please specify what most votes means as there is 1. and 2. vote. I think most seats might be more appropriate -- although that would havily favour afd as of now.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

He just sold yes btw

0

FyouMoneyOTW

7 months ago

Go vote P2 if you haven’t yet https://discord.gg/uma dohmer justken just bought yes btw

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Congrats to you too :) This was crazy +EV all the way to the top.

0

LuckyLam

7 months ago

Congrats, No voters

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Happened to me too a few times; or orders don't go through. I think it happens when you switch from buy to sell after you put in your limit price, it updates the price of the limit to the current bid. You have to switch first and then put in your limit price. Don't use the mobile website anymore.

2

BennyS

7 months ago

I put in a limit order on mobile, entered 89c into the textbox, but the form did not fill. I sold 1000 shares and the corresponding amount at the bottom was 280. I didn’t read carefully enough. I’m not talking about the displayed odds fluctuating because of a relatively small market order that someone made

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Have you read the news? The will sentencing happen before the election" market already resolved. This is just annoying

0

whisperrr

7 months ago

beacause it's no 18 september, dude

Super Bowl Champion 2025

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Fuck the Ravens

0

Super Bowl Champion 2025

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

watch out for scammers linking to an "alternative" to Polymarket, they are wallet drainers and you will lose all your money.

2

CFB: Washington vs. Washington St.

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

that was nerve wrecking, but fun

0

MrNFT

7 months ago

GG

CFB: Washington vs. Washington St.

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

are some of you in the stadium? the prices react much faster than my stream

0

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Why would one do that? and why did I have to rewrite that sentence 5 times to pass the spam filter, while literal scammers are allowed to post links to wallet drainers all day?

4

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

What is going on with the the fewer than 16 named storms. 7 hours ago 25 different accounts bought and sold 6650 NO shares from and to each other.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

What is going on with the the fewer than 16 named storms. 7 hours ago 25 different accounts bought and sold 6650 NO shares from and to each other.

5

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

@SkillzThatKillz fair point, I just thought about this market while watching the clip and thought it was funny

0

BiggestBidenFan

7 months ago

He will definitely mention Laura Loomer

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Earlier today he said Laura like 5 times within a minute, but not Loomer.

0

BiggestBidenFan

7 months ago

He will definitely mention Laura Loomer

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

And somehow the price for No still tanked, lol.

0

Car

7 months ago

now 5.69% difference

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

And still 11 trading days left. It only has to hit for one second. If I were a Yes holder, I'd be sweating.

0

Car

7 months ago

now 5.69% difference

Trump affair with Laura Loomer?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

What? Trump doesn't even acknowledge his affair with Stormy Daniels, how would you expect to get credible evidence of one with Loomer, she's certainly not going to kill her good standing with Trump by admitting to one.

0

Eyebrows

7 months ago

He knows that 2 cents a share is a good deal a week out, worth the risk. Sometimes even if you lose, the losing play was the "smart" play.

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

scam.

0

Elyxir

7 months ago

yes looks like so, thanks for sharing it

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

it's not about the social media platform, it's about the companies bank accounts

0

alwaysrightforever

7 months ago

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes decided to lift freezes previously imposed on Starlink and X bank accounts after ordering the transfer of 18.35 million reais ($3.3 million) from the accounts to the national coffers.

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

they're talking about bank accounts, doesn't change much

0

alwaysrightforever

7 months ago

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes decided to lift freezes previously imposed on Starlink and X bank accounts after ordering the transfer of 18.35 million reais ($3.3 million) from the accounts to the national coffers.

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

yeah, they added the bank to bank account

2

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

what was it before?

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

what was it before?

0

MrNFT

7 months ago

reuters changed their title lol

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

but it seems like the lift is only on the bank accounts, not on x as a social media platform

2

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

what's going on, lol

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

just saw your post down below, thx

0

MrNFT

7 months ago

got unbanned

Will Brazil unban X before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

what's going on, lol

0

NFL Sunday

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

don't be ridiculous

4

neeraj

7 months ago

you can't bet on a draw?

NFL Thursday

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

now it's Dollars on sales for 93 cents, lol

1

Ferguson,Turd

7 months ago

lol

NFL Thursday

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

lfg

3

Ferguson,Turd

7 months ago

Dollars on sale for 87 cents TY

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Your thought process is flawed. No money has to be moved at all to make Microsoft the most valuable company, most certainly not 214 Billion dollars, just like the price of No here could rise to 99c without any shares actually getting bought or sold.

0

Tenebrus7

7 months ago

214 Billions difference in Market cap.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Because it doesnt have anything to do with his political campaign

0

Dogevb

7 months ago

I saw the video on twitter, I don't know if its ai or not, but its is not on trumps event page

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Deepfake analyzer says it is likely genuine, scam would only make sense if you link to wallet immediately, not refer to a date 4 days from now

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I think it's called a pod.

3

sharky🦈🦈🦈

7 months ago

its a whale group bro

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Heslov's new movie: The Men Who Stare at Order Books 😂

1

Super Bowl Champion 2025

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

How so?

3

0xD905af39F7843f08620771982AcE6B5fe80612Ce-1724383336589

7 months ago

Polymarket is censoring people on all the politics posts

Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

which source actually put a number to it?

0

Sit

7 months ago

There is currently 85% chance of it hitting the US according to credible sources. This market has good potential

Who will speak more at the debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

They don't call her Kamabla for no reason ;)

0

wyn

7 months ago

This market is truly under appreciated. All you need to do is go back and watch kamala’s vice presidential debate vs pence in 2020. She kept going even when her time ran out. Additionally, trump has publicly made it clear that he is going to let her talk as she is her own worst enemy. Thirdly, each candidate is likely going to use up all of their time to answer each question, so on that factor alone, the odds should be 50-50

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

This won't move the needle much, at least not on poly and even less so within 24 hours

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Debates usually don't have much of an impact (with the one obv. exception). Although, I do believe Harris has more upwards potential, expectations for Trump are low, so if he simply can contain himself for 90 minutes and stay on policy, people might say he did better than expected.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Debates usually don't have much of an impact (with the one obv. exception). Although, I do believe Harris has more upwards potential, expectations for Trump are low, so if he simply can contain himself for 90 minutes and stay on policy, people might say he did better than expected.

0

Tories4Harris

7 months ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

She's down over 5 points on Poly, and today Times/Siena released a Trump +2 pop vote poll, one of the most reputable pollsters in the country. Swing state polls by Ipsos also showed a slight trend toward Trump. Those might just be outliers or they might be the beginning of a larger trend.

0

Tories4Harris

7 months ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

why is this market still open?

0

Trump Hush Money sentence before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

why is this still open?

0

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

https://www.investing.com/analysis/1-stock-to-buy-1-stock-to-sell-this-week-oracle-apple-200651680

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Why did this drop from 14ct to 10ct with markets closed? The only news we got was from Bloomberg, that key AI features of the new iOS will be pushed back even further. And according to investing Apple historically underperforms post keynote. Additionally, the EU will decide on Tuesday whether Apple has to pay a 14 Billion dollar in taxes from its tax avoidance scheme in Ireland. Analysts are also more bullish on Microsoft than an Nvidia than on Apple. This seems overpriced at 90ct. Or am I missing something?

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-06/apple-sept-9-event-preview-iphone-16-apple-intelligence-airpods-and-watches

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Why did this drop from 14ct to 10ct with markets closed? The only news we got was from Bloomberg, that key AI features of the new iOS will be pushed back even further. And according to investing Apple historically underperforms post keynote. Additionally, the EU will decide on Tuesday whether Apple has to pay a 14 Billion dollar in taxes from its tax avoidance scheme in Ireland. Analysts are also more bullish on Microsoft than an Nvidia than on Apple. This seems overpriced at 90ct. Or am I missing something?

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-09-08/apple-event-staggered-ai-rollout-and-same-iphone-design-means-no-super-cycle-m0tkgzqg

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Why did this drop from 14ct to 10ct with markets closed? The only news we got was from Bloomberg, that key AI features of the new iOS will be pushed back even further. And according to investing Apple historically underperforms post keynote. Additionally, the EU will decide on Tuesday whether Apple has to pay a 14 Billion dollar in taxes from its tax avoidance scheme in Ireland. Analysts are also more bullish on Microsoft than an Nvidia than on Apple. This seems overpriced at 90ct. Or am I missing something?

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Why did this drop from 14ct to 10ct with markets closed? The only news we got was from Bloomberg, that key AI features of the new iOS will be pushed back even further. And according to investing Apple historically underperforms post keynote. Additionally, the EU will decide on Tuesday whether Apple has to pay a 14 Billion dollar in taxes from its tax avoidance scheme in Ireland. Analysts are also more bullish on Microsoft than an Nvidia than on Apple. This seems overpriced at 90ct. Or am I missing something?

1

Annual inflation under 3% in August?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Yeah, by the fed and they aren't even hiding it.

1

luoshenPL

7 months ago

The inflation rate has been strictly controlled

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

No, no fighting on the Sabbath.

2

Gena🐊

7 months ago

Honest question, there is any fighting during weekends? I dont see maps moving

Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

"Full Scope PR reached out to Fox News & denied any involvement with the fake/forged documents regarding Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce’s relationship: “[the documents] are entirely false and fabricated and were not created by this agency.” Full Scope PR plans to take legal action"

0

BallzToTheWalz

7 months ago

So we not factoring in the leak that their relationship is "scheduled" to end Sept 28? https://www.foxnews.com/sports/travis-kelces-pr-firm-calls-lawyers-document-exact-date-taylor-swift-breakup-goes-viral-report

Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I don't follow

0

Justifax

7 months ago

wait wait... no of course, MSFT wants to absorb all 100B risk by itself. just because apple embedded chatgpt into it's os, why would it want to invest. makes no sense! and besides wsj always gets its reporting wrong.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

I don't think there are insider, the price would have jumped much more than that

0

PokerBrat

7 months ago

Is it confirmed that he was on?

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

What do you mean? Are there rumors they already taped an episode?

0

PokerBrat

7 months ago

Is it confirmed that he was on?

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Yeah, felt pretty good, when I read the news ^^ Congrats to you too :)

0

wyn

7 months ago

Why is there $1,755,334 bet on "Trump prison time in NY case before election?", vs only $7,891 bet in this market. Furthermore, the "no prison time" is still not settled, yet, the odds of no prison time were @.72c-78c prior to the motion to delay, and this market was @.35c-40c for the yes for majority of it's lifespan. P.S. this market was much more predictable. 🤑

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

100% agree. I was pretty reckless when I opened this account a month ago. I had much more money in the "Trump fined over 100k, No" bet than I was comfortable with, but there was no liquidity to sell, over the entire 3 weeks or so. I have no idea about the law either, hahah. I was just betting on the vibes I got from talking heads on TV. Most of the reasonable legal experts seemed to agree that the odds were fairly low that sentencing would actually take place before the election.

0

wyn

7 months ago

Why is there $1,755,334 bet on "Trump prison time in NY case before election?", vs only $7,891 bet in this market. Furthermore, the "no prison time" is still not settled, yet, the odds of no prison time were @.72c-78c prior to the motion to delay, and this market was @.35c-40c for the yes for majority of it's lifespan. P.S. this market was much more predictable. 🤑

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Probably because this market was so new and the other one was up since June. I requested this market weeks ago, but got no reply. Would have been interesting to see if people with more knowledge of the legal system would have corrected the price on here. I expected a price of 75-80%. The only reason I was hesitant to buy was because the price was so low, haha. I thought maybe others knew more than I did ^^

0

wyn

7 months ago

Why is there $1,755,334 bet on "Trump prison time in NY case before election?", vs only $7,891 bet in this market. Furthermore, the "no prison time" is still not settled, yet, the odds of no prison time were @.72c-78c prior to the motion to delay, and this market was @.35c-40c for the yes for majority of it's lifespan. P.S. this market was much more predictable. 🤑

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Wow, JustKam you're fast... In every single market. Congrats!

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Dude, you literally have funds left, but ok

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

Still not the price, you idiots will literally lie about anything. YAWN!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

No, since all you could do is sell for 57 or get 100 by proposing.

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

Still not the price, you idiots will literally lie about anything. YAWN!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Just propose, put your money where your mouth is.

1

Mountainman

7 months ago

Still not the price, you idiots will literally lie about anything. YAWN!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Ok, then propose for a profit of 57ct * 1.7544 = 100.

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

If NFTs count, why don't you put your entire bank roll in it and propose? Instant 80% return.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

56ct *1.8 " ~ 100

1

Mountainman

7 months ago

"Tokens launched prior to the start date of this market will qualify for a "Yes" resolution." He launched an NFT last week, don't let the scammers make you buy "NO" before it goes to zero. I don't want to hear any crying like last time when they fooled you into buying that Tate wasn't arrested, AFTER he was arrested!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

If NFTs count, why don't you put your entire bank roll in it and propose? Instant 80% return.

2

Mountainman

7 months ago

"Tokens launched prior to the start date of this market will qualify for a "Yes" resolution." He launched an NFT last week, don't let the scammers make you buy "NO" before it goes to zero. I don't want to hear any crying like last time when they fooled you into buying that Tate wasn't arrested, AFTER he was arrested!

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

True, but if interest rates get cut by more than the expected 25bsp, Nvidia has a higher upwards potential

0

CookedAlligator

7 months ago

check the charts, NVDA is volatile and pumping super hard, 40% pumps. Meanwhile microsoft is a stable / not volatile stock. We all know microsoft is not making 400B in one month. But NVDA could pull that off with another pump

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Interest rates will be cut this month. The market expects a 25 point cut with a 70% probability, if the fed deviates from that, stocks might get volatile.

0

Car

7 months ago

And so its begins.. MSFT up 0.5% and AAPL down -1.2%.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

This may already get decided this week, stay tuned.

0

Edmundo González arrested before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Viva Chavez

1

Gena🐊

7 months ago

You win an election? Believe it or not, jail. You loose the election, also jail

Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Yeah, exactly. Nvidida has a much higher volatility than either Apple or microsoft. No is def. +EV here

0

WhaleHunter

7 months ago

I'm not a stock market expert, but I'm curious why people often compare Nvidia's market value to Apple's. Why doesn't Microsoft have a chance at competing for the top market value, even though it invested in OpenAI and is currently the second-largest company?

Edmundo González arrested before October?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Right to jail, right away.

3

-nothingburger-

7 months ago

jail

Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

This too shall pass.

4

Pavel Durov released in August?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

The CNN headline is misleading, he just got transferred to court, like expected. I still think it is Yes though.

7

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Not much funds left and I’d rather not stay at an irrationally low No for an unreasonably long time. Kicking my ass, I didn’t invest last week when I wanted too.. Nice payday for you though

1

Chrome

7 months ago

Load the clips brother

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

The only way this can resolve in 2024 is the DEA opting to make the new rule effective immediately after publication. Which they legally don’t seem to be permitted to, since this is a “significant rule”, as defined by Executive Order 12866, which means, according to the DEA, that there will be a 60 day delay until the rule gets posted on the Federal Register (potentially longer, pending lawsuits).

1

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Given that this only resolves after the final rule becomes effective, which is usually 30 or 60 days after publication of the new rule, why is this not already at 99c, given that the hearings will be held on December 2nd. And that’s already under the assumption that they publish the rule immediately after the hearing, which is almost guaranteed to not be the case, as there will be significant debate at the hearings over whether to deschedule completely or reschedule to Class 3 (since this is incredibly important for cannabis businesses).

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

Given that this only resolves after the final rule becomes effective, which is usually 30 or 60 days after publication of the new rule, why is this not already at 99c, given that the hearings will be held on December 2nd. And that’s already under the assumption that they publish the rule immediately after the hearing, which is almost guaranteed to not be the case, as there will be significant debate at the hearings over whether to deschedule completely or reschedule to Class 3 (since this is incredibly important for cannabis businesses).

1

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

According to JustKam further down, it has to be after 30 days period, or when the rescheduling becomes effective.

0

caesar

7 months ago

No final rule can take effect less than 30 days after publication, so even if it's published after the hearing in December it won't take effect until 2025.... not sure how the market resolves in that case.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

thank you for clarifying! :)

0

🤺JustPunched

7 months ago

The market expires when marijuana is rescheduled. If it's not rescheduled for whatever reason (lawsuits, waiting period, whatever), it can't expire yes yet.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

exactly, and back then media outlets reported that he endorsed her, and it still wasn't enough

1

Dooby

7 months ago

I’d imagine they have to look back at the Bernie sanders speech and see what they did there

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

https://www.regulatoryoversight.com/2024/08/cannabis-rescheduling-closing-of-the-comment-period-and-what-lies-ahead/

0

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Don't lose hope, itll happen eventually :)

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

FOMO is a dangerous drug. Seems like this will never happen.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?

1

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

The pump was because a business insider article mentioned that they will pubilshe the new rule either August 20th or September 20th. So there would have been a possibility, at least according to BI. However, I don't know were BI got that info from, i think they were uninformed

2

Chrome

8 months ago

where were yall getting the updates at I couldn't find shit except the dates

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Here's good source on the timeline ahead: https://www.regulatoryoversight.com/2024/08/cannabis-rescheduling-closing-of-the-comment-period-and-what-lies-ahead/

1

Chrome

8 months ago

where were yall getting the updates at I couldn't find shit except the dates

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

But yeah, you know probably more about this than I do. And to your other points, yeah, I never argued those. I know they can just publish their rule without a hearing; or hold a hearing and procede to reschedule without taking objections into account.

1

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

I'm not sure I fully underatand the processes here, but seems to me you just ave to write a letter, no? https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/21/2024-11137/schedules-of-controlled-substances-rescheduling-of-marijuana

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

I think they will reschedule too, eventually

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

I know they can reschedule without a hearing. And yes, several groups and individuals have requested a hearing.

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Here's for example a request for hearing by a ton of former DEA administrators: DEA-2024-0059-23173

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

I don't think it will happen today. I can't imagine the DEA rescheduling without a hearing, somthing the business insider article glosses over entirely, they only mention the deadline

0

Degen2005

8 months ago

Seems like this will be happening today. Apparently roughly 69% of the comments were in support of not only rescheduling but COMPLETE DESCHEDULING. Most public comments ever received.

Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Seems so, https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/CVP/5513

0

VibesGreaterRules

8 months ago

Is the deadline 30 days after sentencing?

Democratic VP nominee on election day?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

The buzz is getting louder. Who's it gonna be? Remember, it can only be one.

0

Maduro out before September?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Just read the rules on it, you're right pretty fucked up

1

Gena🐊

8 months ago

It was, only a couple of freaks where betting Maduro because they supported him or though he would win honestly. Then JustScam used his influence over UMA and they started to accumulate shares at 5%. Polymarket hasnt issued an statement yet, and that's a disgrace

Maduro out before September?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Hmm, didn't know you could stll access closed markets. Well, you're actually right. It says official information is the primary source. That sucks, and it erodes trust in Polymarket pretty substantially

6

XiJinPing

8 months ago

No one can actually bet meaningful amounts in this market because JustScam and his mob can easily steal this like they did the other one. Shame on Polymarket.

Maduro out before September?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Hmm, maybe they should have kept the market open longer until there was more information available, but most credible evidence suggests that he actually did lose. And most countries throughout the world reject his claim that he won. Of course a dictator would claim so

1

XiJinPing

8 months ago

No one can actually bet meaningful amounts in this market because JustScam and his mob can easily steal this like they did the other one. Shame on Polymarket.

Maduro out before September?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

How did they resolve the election market?

0

XiJinPing

8 months ago

No one can actually bet meaningful amounts in this market because JustScam and his mob can easily steal this like they did the other one. Shame on Polymarket.

Will Biden finish his term?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Lol, their def there for Biden

0

Car

8 months ago

Wow ambulances at the white house

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

51.2% vs 48.8

0

ionlywin

8 months ago

Also, males are just born more often statistically.

U.S. Recession in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

and it's also the 12 month likelihood

0

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Excerpt: While we now think the risks are somewhat higher than the historical unconditional average 12-month probability of about 15%, we continue to see recession risk as limited because the data still look fine overall and we do not see major financial imbalances”

U.S. Recession in 2024?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Excerpt: While we now think the risks are somewhat higher than the historical unconditional average 12-month probability of about 15%, we continue to see recession risk as limited because the data still look fine overall and we do not see major financial imbalances”

0

MichaelFowlie

8 months ago

JP Morgan says there's a 35% probability of recession by end of 2024

Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

any day now!

3

BigBetsBonanza

8 months ago

Highly likely she drops out I think!!! For sure!!

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

So almost every time 😂

0

polymathead

8 months ago

I'm kinda flip--flopping but based on Chatgpt, there have only been 3 instances since 2000 where the first cut has been 50bps: January 3, 2001: 50 bps cut in response to the dot-com bubble burst. September 18, 2007: 50 bps cut during the onset of the financial crisis. March 3, 2020: 50 bps emergency cut due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Is it really as bad as any of these right now?

2024 July hottest on record?

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Lol, Maduro lost. Just bc he says otherwise doesn't mean it's true ^^

1

diddy

8 months ago

Also, I have seen Gonzalez win the election instead of Maduro here. I think there is alternative reality going on at the moment.