#85
Rank
241
Comments
144
Likes Received
350
Likes Given
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
just.some.guy
10 months ago
IMHO, the best trader amongst the 15 no side guys is peasant.
0
Oilersss
10 months ago
Yannlagaf one of the most profitable trader holds 250k no shares
Oscars: Best Actress
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I've traded this category like such a chode that my net on each actress is negative. :)
0
Oscars: Best Actress
just.some.guy
11 months ago
i kid, i kid
0
just.some.guy
11 months ago
It has to be Karla Sofia Gascon!
Oscars: Best Actress
just.some.guy
11 months ago
It has to be Karla Sofia Gascon!
3
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Cool, cool. And for what it's worth, you don't seem a day over 39!
1
LucyCross
11 months ago
I'm your Venus. I'm your fire. It's your desire.
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Any opinion on the Kanye coin market? It's everybody everywhere vs one person. If he's an insider, we're all F'd. I stayed a bit more cautious than some. I've gotten burned a couple times by insiders so it seems like a more real possibility to me. Who knows?
1
LucyCross
11 months ago
I'm your Venus. I'm your fire. It's your desire.
Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
heh, fun market
0
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Same here. His stuff makes me smile
3
KnureKnume
11 months ago
Glenn Beck said within 10 days, 7 days ago... Kash gets confirmed tomorrow. Looks like everything is lining up perfectly. :)
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Heh, solid post. If you see this, say hello. You and I are often in the same markets and I think you like me: I'm proximocentauri at the other two sites.
1
LucyCross
11 months ago
I'm your Venus. I'm your fire. It's your desire.
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Your turn to take my bid, at 29.9c
1
Ayeaye
11 months ago
@just.some.guy some more available for ya
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Rekt
5
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Just out of curiosity, what do you use for toothpaste?
1
moneymaker25
11 months ago
Fluoride is poison
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
There ya go, now you're playing hardball. Using an alt that doesn't hold No shares might work better, but I definitely like the spirit of the thing.
3
BussyBlaster
11 months ago
ok so Trump just pardoned someone maybe yes is undervalued here https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/10/politics/trump-pardons-rod-blagojevich/index.html
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
It strikes me as pretty scuzzy to add Blagojevich after his pardon was already announced.
8
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
heh, solid post.
0
NihilisticButtonClicker
11 months ago
Spoke to Trump last night - he's going to tariff the shit out of everyone including your grandmother and your dog. Thanks for the money!
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Well, I appreciate the concern. Good luck to both sides.
0
BussyBlaster
11 months ago
god damn @just.some.guy what a wild position. I used to think you were a smooth operator but now i see youre an absolute degenerate. I hope the best for you honestly but this is such a risky disproportionately low reward position to take. I hope 50k is pennies for you. Anyway unironically wishing you best of luck.
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I like what you did here; that's solid propaganda. Are you for hire, at all?
0
promimocentauri
11 months ago
Newly confirmed AG Pam Bondi was on Hannity tonight: https://x.com/DineshDSouza/status/1887164256623194400?t=wzt-2sXwEdm9xBEYhfcNxw&s=19
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Definitely do not be afraid of me. I'm not one of those guys that watches the news 24/7 or anything like that. And this weekend that goes double since anybody not focusing their bets on the super bowl is a commie, plain and simple..
2
0x487fb7376d619cd74cbc68e9cc50496ae938
11 months ago
I have to commend (just.some.guy) for being truly fearless.
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Thanks for the invite, but I know absolutely nothing about that. Plus, I think I'm in enough trouble as is.
2
0x487fb7376d619cd74cbc68e9cc50496ae938
11 months ago
I have to commend (just.some.guy) for being truly fearless.
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Heh, you know you're in trouble when the other side starts saying nice things about you! :)
2
0x487fb7376d619cd74cbc68e9cc50496ae938
11 months ago
I have to commend (just.some.guy) for being truly fearless.
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Fearless or astounding stupid, the jury's still out on that.
3
0x487fb7376d619cd74cbc68e9cc50496ae938
11 months ago
I have to commend (just.some.guy) for being truly fearless.
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Thanks for tagging me. We might be on opposite sides on this one, but that was a stand-up move.
0
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I'm starting to run a little scared in this market. If you want more shares off me, you'll have to go to .29
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I'm starting to run a little scared in this market. If you want more shares off me, you'll have to go to .29
4
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
40 cents? You're not the oracle at Delphi, are you? Because that seems like an unfair advantage....
0
BussyBlaster
11 months ago
Looks like im top holder on yes side, i honestly dont see the no case being worth 0.70. If we assume RFK has an 80% chance of being appointed, is the chance that he doesn't get it done by end of april really worth 0.70/0.80 = 87.5%? Come on. It's a low stakes recommendation, everyone knows his views on it. Personally id say 50/50 which put's NO at $0.40
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
heh, a 'raging fetterman'. which is that a better name for, a drink or a sex position?
2
just.some.guy
11 months ago
The sad thing is this isn't even my most on fire market. I've got a raging Fetterman problem.
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
The sad thing is this isn't even my most on fire market. I've got a raging Fetterman problem.
1
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Solid points.
4
BussyBlaster
11 months ago
Looks like im top holder on yes side, i honestly dont see the no case being worth 0.70. If we assume RFK has an 80% chance of being appointed, is the chance that he doesn't get it done by end of april really worth 0.70/0.80 = 87.5%? Come on. It's a low stakes recommendation, everyone knows his views on it. Personally id say 50/50 which put's NO at $0.40
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Hey, dude. Are you at Discord? It just feels like you and I should be able to chat directly by now. Plus, I like your av/screen name.
0
BuckMySalls
11 months ago
btc is going to be in the sovereign wealth fund, not to be held by the treasury. thank me later
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I think the bustup to Chad's play is also the most likely outcome: RFK gets confirmed then nothing happens.
1
BussyBlaster
11 months ago
Chad play: Buy this at 0.30, then buy NO JFK at 0.25 to hedge and cover your downside.
Canada election called before April?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Good market. Always more fun than the 90-10 type markets.
2
Who will Trump meet with in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
y, i'm cooked
0
Rr55
11 months ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-lands-in-us-ahead-of-meetings-with-trump-senior-us-officials/
Oscars: Best Picture
just.some.guy
11 months ago
You're not crazy. Brutalist has always been a weak front runner -- it feels like voters are looking around for other options. But below the Brutalist there's no consensus who ranks where between 2 and 5. Toss in preferential voting and who knows?
2
mase03
11 months ago
Am I crazy for thinking Wicked has a chance after this Emilia Perez drama?
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
I agree. To my mind, taking our country's secrets and handing them to the Russians is the textbook definition of a traitorous act.
0
its.just.fire
11 months ago
This message is for Edward Snowden since I know for a fact that you enjoy checking this page: I want you to know that you aint getting pardoned you russian traitor.Posting disinformation and hatred while hiding in siberia with your millions of $$$ is as good as its going to get for you.So enjoy.
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
sweet, thanks
0
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
That's a true fact. My primary assumption for the election was that it would be incredibly close, so, yeah, not so much.
0
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Thanks, dude. I owe you one. Also, congrats on your lightning jump to your very shiny PnL!
0
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?
0
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
i was just enjoying the pun, not making a real comment.
0
Big.Balls
11 months ago
Americans are the sickest people on earth
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
heh, a more 'liquid' market
0
Big.Balls
11 months ago
Americans are the sickest people on earth
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Your posts are excellent, thanks.
1
username3
11 months ago
BREAKING: Justice Dept. Is Said to Discuss Dropping Case Against Eric Adams. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/us/politics/justice-department-trump-charges-eric-adams.html
Who will Trump meet with in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Good post, thanks.
1
Precursor
0 years ago
There are only two opportunities per year for the U.S President to meet the Chinese President. The first is at the G20 Summit in a side meeting. The second is at the APEC Summit also in a side meeting. Both are scheduled for the second half of the year, beyond the time limit of this bet. In April 2017, Trump hosted Xi at Mar-a-Lago for talks. Diplomatic protocol would suggest it would be Xi’s turn to host next, should a non-summit meeting take place. In December 2018 at the G20, Trump met Xi and agreed to delay any tariffs for 90 days. Trump has signalled his intention to impose roughly 25% tariffs on China in the first week of February (next week). If Xi is able to meet with Trump prior to Trump imposing tariffs, Trump will likely agree to delay, similar to what happened in 2018. This is especially likely if Xi hosts Trump and gives him emperor level treatment. There is huge pressure internally to impose the tariffs early, so that Xi can’t weasel out of them like last time and to strengthen the U.S negotiating position. If tariffs are imposed early Feb then there are two scenarios: - Xi will be pissed and will not want to meet/cooperate with Trump. - Xi will think he needs to intervene for the good of his country and negotiate with Trump in person. The first scenario is way more likely IMHO, but please DYODD.
NFL MVP
just.some.guy
11 months ago
Heh, solid screen name. Y, I've been there.
0
HentaiGooner
11 months ago
when MVP will be announced?
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
correct
0
SomeOne45
0 years ago
Why would it drop so much in one day? There wasn’t even any news that there wouldn’t be any meeting.
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
Hey, Amalek! It's been a minute; good to see you, my friend!
0
RememberAmalek
0 years ago
Hello gang
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
I'm not sure how I ended up light on Ver, but good luck to both sides.
5
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
Congratulations to Ross yes owners. I held no, but I'm thrilled that Ross will soon walk free. It's a just result.
4
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
You may be right, but all 3 times Trump talked about Ross he used the same phrase: "on day one." So if the contract's still around on Wednesday I'd expect No to be favored.
0
just.some.guy
0 years ago
Ross Ulbricht is one of my heroes so this bet's caused me a great deal of cognitive dissonance. I'm glad we'll soon know the result and for me, watching Ross walk free would be a gigantic consolation prize.
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
0 years ago
Ross Ulbricht is one of my heroes so this bet's caused me a great deal of cognitive dissonance. I'm glad we'll soon know the result and for me, watching Ross walk free would be a gigantic consolation prize.
6
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
in my PnL?
0
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm selling my positions across the board, but this market is so stupidly priced that I just can't do it. You guys get that this is a Buy at 75, right?
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm selling my positions across the board, but this market is so stupidly priced that I just can't do it. You guys get that this is a Buy at 75, right?
3
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
This is the second day in a row I've woken up and not understood the price moves in this market. Is there some news source on RFK that I'm not picking up or something?
1
Next Senate Majority Leader?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, solid post
3
❖libi💚🤍
1 year ago
"rick scott" in octal is 162 151 143 153 40 163 143 157 164 164, sum 1440, the year Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press, the fundamental beginning of mass biosemiotics and memetic propagation.
Next Senate Majority Leader?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
if you're on shrooms, proper etiquette is to share. just sayin'.
1
❖libi💚🤍
1 year ago
we are all Threads of information existing in shared collective focus. the singularity will Happen in our lifetime if we let it. it is right there. you just have to reach out and grab it.
Next Senate Majority Leader?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
"Senator Coach Tommy Tuberville". He clings to that word the way you'd grip a life raft in the ocean.
1
TruthSearUm
1 year ago
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1856524692808708507
Next Senate Majority Leader?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I like you; you're fun.
1
❖libi💚🤍
1 year ago
the flesh of humanity is it's larval form. we are the flatworms of the universe waiting to blossom in the final chrysalis that will bring us closer to God as he made us in his image. rick scott just announced the Matrioshka Project will begin construction in Florida
Next Senate Majority Leader?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
You don't ask for a delay when you think you're going to win. You ask for a delay when you think you're going to lose.
10
Jacob44
1 year ago
Promising news for Scott holders https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1856400926937846131
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm not so sure about DOD, but also on your side are HHS and FDA, the two posts I fear the most.
1
millticketmar
1 year ago
About the President's Cabinet: These Cabinets include: Department of Agriculture (USDA) Department of Commerce. Department of Defense.
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It feels like somebody knows the answer's no.
1
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Why is this market still open? Trump won by 13%; it's not like we have to wait for the overseas ballots or something.
2
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
What happened overnight?
0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Heh, I see I'm not the only one selling. I'd bet our motivation is the same: money out of poly and into crypto.
1
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It's really, really hard to resist crypto FOMO these days. There's some alts that are just calling out to me.....
2
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Very cool. I'll tell you this much, if I lose this bet watching Ross walk free will be a huge silver lining.
1
SydneySweeney
1 year ago
appreciate yall for making Ross so cheap time to bid again
Who will Trump pick for Defense Secretary?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Is anyone else having trouble Converting No shares to Yes shares (neg risk)? Usually the Convert button is under the "position" tab, but I don't see it for this mkt.
0
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
But just to be clear, I consider Ross Ulbricht to be a hero who absolutely deserves commutation. The reason for my position is I'm not sure Trump will follow through on his promise.
4
SydneySweeney
1 year ago
appreciate yall for making Ross so cheap time to bid again
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I put up a 5k bid for you at 71.
0
SydneySweeney
1 year ago
appreciate yall for making Ross so cheap time to bid again
Who will Trump pick for Education Secretary?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Well, if Tim Apple runs Apple then surely Betsy Justice should run DOJ?
0
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Wars are really easy to end. That's why they always end so quickly.
16
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm not sure 29 bucks qualifies as huge cash.
5
Liviaxx98
1 year ago
Hey guys, can I get a tip please?. I lost huge cash on other markets, Thank you so much! :)
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Who doesn't?
2
UndefeatedElectionForecaster
1 year ago
Trump famously loves drug dealers
Iowa Margin of Victory
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I actually literally laughed out loud at this
0
Eridpnc
1 year ago
Love the bracket sizing, but it's a bit small for my liking. What if I am really sure Trump will win by 9.34% and want those odds? Not much value on 9.35% so such big brackets are a total waste to me!!
Iowa Margin of Victory
just.some.guy
1 year ago
lol
0
Eridpnc
1 year ago
Love the bracket sizing, but it's a bit small for my liking. What if I am really sure Trump will win by 9.34% and want those odds? Not much value on 9.35% so such big brackets are a total waste to me!!
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Cuz the Iranians need to drill, baby, drill too! Howdy, Betwick.
2
Betwick
1 year ago
Leave the liquid gold out of this!
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
How did my ride or die adventure end? Well, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbL2pHsPaxw
1
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Me, I'm ride or die on this one (at least until it's confirmed we've lost), but you gotta do whatever's best for you.
0
trav
1 year ago
what do i do...
# of Republican Senate seats after Election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
They're trading into 'negative risk' positions. This is when you buy the no side of two or more brackets, then click "convert" in your positions tab. Google it for details, but it's a convenient way to save capital.
1
ImHereForTheRewards
1 year ago
Sorry but how is it possible that in the 50 event there are only 4 holders with a total of ...250 shares?
Who will win San Francisco Mayor Election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Two new polls out today: https://www.kqed.org/news/12010336/new-polls-san-francisco-mayors-race-peskin-lurie-surging
0
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Also, Glory to Glorzo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjYOTdnTf4c
1
PepeGambler
1 year ago
GLORY TO UKRAINE!
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
This dude: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x531096028a3e1f8aa4ed50a774453c6ae40ba500?tab=activity He's gonna be pissed when he sobers up.
3
kingsirpredictionconnoisseur
1 year ago
What happened tonight?
Diddy sex tape released before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, solid screen name
1
jingyu3
1 year ago
我需要购买USDT
Diddy sex tape released before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Replying to your above post, I use Google Translate, but yeah.
1
jingyu3
1 year ago
我需要购买USDT
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I fold.
0
Diddy sex tape released before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
USDT is Tether, which works fine here, although they prefer USDC (another stablecoin) on the Polygon blockchain. If any of that seems like a foreign language you can ask any question on the General board of Polymarket's discord. GL!
2
jingyu3
1 year ago
My telegram account is @YYmm3 I need to buy USDT
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
2 weeks ago I lost $25k on the ground forces into Lebanon market. Take it from me, nothing about Israeli markets is ever easy money.
11
Mgmsx
1 year ago
Easy money for who understands 😉
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Obviously, I really like your position in this market, but if losing the entire total is keeping you up at night, you might consider selling, say, half the position. That'd do two things: cut your potential loss in half and lock in some profits that would help offset that half-loss in a worst case scenario. Good luck.
2
io9000
1 year ago
I am extremely scared to lose money
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Never risk more than you should. Obviously, that standard's very subjective and different for everyone, but when a loss hurts and bugs you afterwards, maybe decrease your bet amount, at least until you're more used to everything. Good luck!
1
io9000
1 year ago
How do you personally deal with losing money? I am extremely inexperienced at it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I think that's right: https://vote.uma.xyz/?_gl=1*19u5fl6*_ga*MTUzNjQ4NjgxNy4xNzI4MDI1NTkw*_ga_FMK5W8B58D*MTcyODAyNTU5MC4xLjEuMTcyODAyNzU3OS42MC4wLjA.
0
denizz
1 year ago
What's the current voting schedule and procedure? There was already a vote that ended in "too early", right?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Yeah, that's the most egregious of UMA's many shortcomings.
2
Scoobs
1 year ago
Also it has come to my attention that people with financial incentive in this market are the ones who get to vote on the outcome of said market.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Hear, hear. Solid plan. I'm actually off to take in a first round MLB playoff series, myself. And remember, this thing's a marathon, not a sprint. Have a good one!
1
NotJustKen
1 year ago
Fuck this. Going on vacation for few days. Won't open it till then. Fuck the truth as well. My only hope is Pence manipulating the market. Jerusalem Post cleared it that it was to "gain information" not to engage in combat. I don't know how it will resolve to Yes.. Peace out.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Hey AP, I think I owe you an apology. I'll send it at Discord.
1
Gena🐊
1 year ago
Both sides have great arguments! But this will be decided by influence over UMA. THE TRUE DOESNT MATTER.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I knew that today I'd be making one of two posts: either "Whew" or "Rekt". I sure wish it could've been the other one.
5
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Is it just me or does that order book look weird to anyone else?
2
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Nothing ever happens. Oh, wait...
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The "nothing ever happens" brigade needs to start playing Israeli markets.
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
He just told the UN they're a "contemptuous farce" to their faces. Say what you will, the man's got balls.
2
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I wish the world would stop saying those words. Bring it up often enough and one of these days Poly's going to respond with, "You're right, so we're reducing our market offerings by 90%."
0
Bidensupporter123
1 year ago
Say it with me: Nothing. Ever. Happens
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
This is what attorneys call a statement against interest, but my reading is only the announcement's required.
2
SusanWarrenHR
1 year ago
Another poorly-worded market. Is the October 15 deadline for when the debate will occur, or for the announcement?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Good thing that phrase hasn't caused any controversy in rules interpretation.
0
Swiftie89
1 year ago
"however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice"
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Am I nervous betting against Mossad? Absolutely.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
You gotta love a market whose 'primary resolution source' is Hezbollah. Polymarket forever!
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Thanks very much. That means a lot coming from you.
1
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Respect.
1
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
You were right yesterday. I was an idiot.
0
Car
1 year ago
Peace always prevails.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I've traded this market like a patzer. One of the multiple aspects of my trading I need to work on is fear control. But, live and learn (and lose some money you shouldn't have), I suppose.
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Plus, paper hands
0
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The language has been pretty tough from the top of the IDF. I had to hedge my 30k No position on Sept. markets.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The language has been pretty tough from the top of the IDF. I had to hedge my 30k No position on Sept. markets.
0
Car
1 year ago
just.some.guy, might aswel just market buy YES, bro
Mozambique Presidential Election Winner
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Are Mozambique elections crooked?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It doesn't matter for this market, but for the two Sept ending "Israel into Lebanon" mkts, one reason I like no is that on Tuesday, Netanyahu is (currently) scheduled to come to the USA, staying until the 28th. My guess is he'll be asking for permission / acquiescence to widen the war, possibly including a ground operation to the Lithani river in Lebanon, but I'd also guess nothing will start until at least he's back in Israel. Plus, Netanyahu's changing Defense Ministers right now and Hezbollah's initial response to the pager thing was proportional (so far, anyway), instead of overreaching and allowing Israel to say, "see, Hez started this war; it's Oct 7th all over again." Anyway, I owe you cosmic karma, so I figured I'd at least mention it.
2
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Hi, H&L: Being new to market style betting, I’m trying to learn what I can from the brightest traders here. At the risk of sounding like a fanboy, it was your "stick and move" trading style that first got me thinking about the question of WHEN a price will go up instead of just IF a price would go up. My trading’s still a work in progress, but I just wanted to thank you for helping me see something I hadn’t before. You rock.
1
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I like your style! (He said, buzzing from the heroic amount of Adderall he's taken to get through football this weekend).
1
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Most you-know-whats cover more than one device. If yours does, you could trade f/ your phone.
1
MrKangaroo
1 year ago
i agree, great value, i can't sell because my computers not working but if it was i'd buy a ton of yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Wuss. Kidding, I'm totally kidding. It's getting pretty hairy up there.
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
sold 90% of my NO, they are escalating way too much, this is very scary
Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Looks like it's greenlit. See ya there
2
Gena🐊
1 year ago
Fellow third world election bettors. I proposed on Polymarket "market-submissions" discord channel the Mozambique presidential elections. If anyone can green check it / thumbs up it will be helpfull.
Will Trump visit Springfield in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Amen, brother. You'd think wealth would mellow a guy....
0
Car
1 year ago
I love taking money from people who believe in rumors
Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3
just.some.guy
1 year ago
thanks, poly. these are fun.
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I have little confidence in UMA, so this doesn't matter, but my reading was that for Yes to win, the rule writers meant to require the Israelis not just to cross the border (say on a raid or something), but to cross the border, take some real estate, then stay there and defend it (I dk: dig in, establish a defensive perimeter, basically turn and fight on the defensive). Anyway, that's my two cents on the intention of the rules. Unfortunately, UMA doesn't care what the rules intend; or rather, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't and good luck knowing which kind of market you're currently trading in.
1
FamilyCapital
1 year ago
English is my 3rd language, can someone explain me, how we & UMA gonna know their intention of military offensive?
What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
lolz
0
mr.ozi
1 year ago
Much comradeship, such plan. But wow, no comrades. So lonely. Many disappoint, such betray.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
thanks, dude. i def owe you one now and i'm a person who doesn't forget a favor. i'm not sure if you're a discord person but if so, friend me there. thks again
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
September is so free -- "U.S. officials stressed that they haven’t yet seen any indicators such as calling up reserves to indicate an imminent invasion. Even once a decision is made, it could take weeks before Israeli forces are in position to launch a major offensive."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
howdy, xi. good find, could you link me to the source? thanks
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
September is so free -- "U.S. officials stressed that they haven’t yet seen any indicators such as calling up reserves to indicate an imminent invasion. Even once a decision is made, it could take weeks before Israeli forces are in position to launch a major offensive."
Hezbollah enters Israel in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Dare we describe it as...foreseeable?
2
Foreseeable.
1 year ago
And so it begins: https://x.com/IDF/status/1836769873042538964
What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The Ukrainians droned a target west of Moscow tonight, so I'm wondering if the prices of no side 'Ukrainians drone Moscow' and/or 'kinetic hit on Kerch bridge' might become more affordable (with only 12 days till mkts close). Idk, just a thought.
1
mr.ozi
1 year ago
Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)
What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Damn, that is some seriously great intel; thank you, my friend. After this I definitely owe you, so if you need to know anything about anything I might know, I'm happy to share. Yeah, dude, let's be allies. I don't really know anybody at poly and it'd be nice to!
1
mr.ozi
1 year ago
Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
"A guy comes up to me -- a big guy, tears in his eyes -- and he says, "Sir, Sir, how are you so great at evacuating embassies?"
7
Gena🐊
1 year ago
THE U.S. IS NUMBER ONE! NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. When it comes to evacuating embassies, WE DO IT FASTER THAN ANYONE. Gold medal performance, folks! Other countries can’t keep up, they’re SLOW, they’re WEAK. We get our people out QUICK, we’re the BEST at it—believe me! Nobody does it like the United States. We lead, others follow. AMERICA FIRST!
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
They hit them again. Holy fuck, Mossad is good.
1
What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Hey rozi, I was hoping we'd get a chance to meet. You're a sharp player; I've noticed us on the same side of a number of markets lately. Heh, and I appreciate the advice -- I've put in a sell order. Anyway, good to meet you and I hope to see you around some more. Good luck, my new friend!
0
mr.ozi
1 year ago
If you sell your Palestine shares, you'll increase your chances of not sucking at it this time 😉
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I think Gallant is toast. Actuallly, they should make a market on that.
2
BennyS
1 year ago
Gallant will stay on. If not, we can expect a campaign in South Lebanon, but Gallant will stay on anyway.
Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Lolz. You and I seem to be walking in the same circles tonight. FWIW, I just saw a BBC report that also suggested Dissanayake is the front runner, but I can't find any actual polling. Which is fine, because when my favorite Chilean fascist owns shares in a Marxist backed by an astrologist, there's only one thing I can say -- I'm in!
1
Gena🐊
1 year ago
Guys Dissanayake is basically free money. My source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OnWK2d5icE&ab_channel=KTAstro
Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'll like you more
1
yourrapist1776
1 year ago
if i stick my wiener into a jar of peanut butter, will you guys still like me?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Anytime, my friend, anytime.
2
XiJinPing
1 year ago
oh i see, thanks for your reply
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Scottilicious bought me out: scottilicious bought 26,936 No at 91.0¢ ($24,512) 10d ago
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
i actually respect your opinion, why do you think Yes? the pager activation wasnt planned, they were forced to do it bc it got discovered.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I don't; I'm here to sell. I switched sides from no (i owned 27k shares of no 2 weeks ago) to yes when the agitation for a ground war in the north started. Now I'm taking profits and I'd guess I'll be back on your side soon.
2
XiJinPing
1 year ago
i actually respect your opinion, why do you think Yes? the pager activation wasnt planned, they were forced to do it bc it got discovered.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
This is the most active I've ever seen an Israeli market's comments section. Good work; it's always nice to hear other folks' points of view.
2
Hezbollah enters Israel in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
hmm, seems like i've arrived late to the new bunch of Israeli markets.
0
Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I think you're thinking of the Hezbollah commander they offed in southern Beirut. Israel did take responsibility for that.
0
Amok
1 year ago
They did with that one Iran strike.
Will Trump do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Heh, fun market
0
What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
0
Will Trump visit Springfield in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Last time I saw a post of yours, your tagline was "Domah fan." Domah replied to that post calling you a clown. I'm glad to see you've changed that tagline.
3
Car
1 year ago
I love taking money from people who believe in rumors
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Good post, thanks
0
sd2333
1 year ago
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1835827562657792509 Axios reporter just now
Another Trump x Musk space before October?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Why didn't we lose this bet?
0
CompulsiveGambler
1 year ago
Cannot believe some lucky bastard got filled for NO at 5c and i've been holding these 85c No all week like a chump
Maduro out in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, heh, heh. solid point.
2
Gena🐊
1 year ago
In Venezuela there are a lot of blackouts because Socialism. Because that JustScam could claim Maduro technically lost power
Maduro out in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
A market on whether or not the CIA was involved would be fun. Too bad there's no way to decide it except through UMA's corrupt hands. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxgl2zjgzzo
2
Will Trump visit Aurora in September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Susan after Dark seems way more fun than Susan, Head of HR.
3
SusanWarrenHR
1 year ago
I had the best sex of my life in Colorado
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Heh, solid screen name / av combo.
2
BuckMySalls
1 year ago
It's unlikely to be Fox but there is a good chance this trades in the 40s at some point based on rumors alone
Who will gain more in polls after the debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
That wasn't a post debate poll, but I suspect you knew that.
2
sdiff123
1 year ago
New Economist poll conducted post debate: Trump 45%, Harris 45%. A 2 point swing towards Trump.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
You might be interested in this market, as well: https://polymarket.com/event/fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris/fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris?tid=1726189109272
0
Bettensor
1 year ago
lmao you fool
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Not to mention the fact the entire right is screaming "rigged debate!" Obviously, the Harris campaign would be insanely worried that Fox News would rig a debate back, in the name of "fairness".
2
mr.ozi
1 year ago
I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Trump: "There will not be another debate." This market: Eh, Trump says a lot of stuff.
8
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
@AugustsoPinochet73, Amen on the JustScam point. I remember you from the Maduro boards. If memory serves, we got our asses kicked together there. Oh well, at least our misery had company. Good luck to you in the future, my friend!
3
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
If I were arguing the yes side, I'd just quote Trump from this morning: "Are we going to do a rematch? I just don't know. I'd do NBC and I'd do Fox, too."
4
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Solid point. Although in practice for this market, agreement between the parties and announcement by Fox would probably all happen within hours.
0
Shayku
1 year ago
And by the way, the wording on the 'number of debates' market is better, and you should adopt standard wording to minimize confusion. Like game rules, or text on Magic cards. Standard vocabulary, standard syntax, etc.
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Not to mention JustKen's position (Domah/JustKam/Domer). I, for one, would never, ever take him on at UMA. He's the guy who orchestrated the UMA vote "confirming" Gonzalez won the Venezuela election over Maduro. At least 5 other prediction markets / sportsbooks ran lines on that election; all of them closed with Maduro as the winner. Directly or indirectly or through persuasion or whatever, the dude runs that place.
6
Fav1
1 year ago
Time to buy No again? Google the Moscow municipality boundaries pls
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
With the main market basically 50/50 the opportunities for manipulation and counter manipulation during the 4 hour window are mind boggling. Will be wild!
0
Cops who arrested Tyreek Hill fired?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Cops have great unions.
2
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
....she said, knowing I'd be the one putting up the $750. It's just so EASY to risk someone else's money.
0
tsybka
1 year ago
go ahead and propose result.
How many viewers will the debate get?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Is that the whisper number? Nuts, I bet UN 75M across multiple sportsbooks.
0
CookedAlligator
1 year ago
this might actually hit 75M +
How many viewers will the debate get?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
For super bowls the Nielsen numbers don't come out until Monday, so tomorrow(?)
0
J.D.K
1 year ago
When will this market be resolved?
Who will gain more in polls after the debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Is that still your view?
0
sdiff123
1 year ago
This market has little to do with the debate
What will Kamala and Trump both say at the debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Bold Prediction: "tip" cashes yes after Trump says -- as I used to in high school -- "just the tip".
1
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I see we both joined Poly in June. Beyond that it's hard to find any other similarities between our accounts.
0
tsybka
1 year ago
🤡
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Fellow No holders, I've just finished some map work and it looks like we dodged a bullet tonight, but we'll still probably have to fight for it. I'm happy to put up our side's $750 to take this to UMA, so if anyone sees a Proposal go up, please notify me immediately by replying to this message. Thanks, guys; team effort, and all that.
2
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I've now had time to do some map work and you're right: that's not Moscow. I'm happy to put up our side's $750 to take this to UMA, so if someone proposes please let me know right away. Thanks, my friend!
1
Fav1
1 year ago
All targets were outside Moscow
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Crap, if that reporting's correct and the Ukrainians killed a 9 year old kid, Russia's incentives reverse and instead of covering it up, they'll use RT and whoever to spread the story as widely as possible. Bonus bad news for me: the closer to civilian, downtown Moscow they can make it sound, the better the propaganda value for them.
0
Tories4Harris
1 year ago
Watch this to see the moment the drone hit the apartment building in moscow. https://x.com/ajit4g/status/1833335785010991155. up 2/3rd on the screen coming from left to right.
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
PS: I see since then he's deleted all the posts that were part of the scam. So yeah, he's a scumbag.
0
thinkingfast
1 year ago
which users are scammers?
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
XiJinPeng is notorious for them. I found that out the hard way last week in this very market. He ran a pretty sophisticated scam between his acct and an alt he runs called JCooper. I won't bore you w/ the details, but I'm ashamed to admit I fell for it and it cost me about $70. Afterwards, I asked around about him and learned that scams are pretty much all he does under a bunch of accts.
1
thinkingfast
1 year ago
which users are scammers?
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Feels like this mkt might be on it's way to the tender care of UMA and, hey, who doesn't love that transparent, incorruptible and eminently fair organization?
0
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
ah, thks
0
tsybka
1 year ago
Domer: "if i have less than 10k shares i am not even really making a bet, just having fun"
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
No idea if it's true, but the Mayor of Moscow says the drone launched towards Moscow was shot down en route. Fog of war: https://kelo.com/2024/09/09/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says/
1
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
For fuck sake. I'll tell ya one thing: count me out for Oct market
1
Crock95
1 year ago
You're always right on time, lol!
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Tails never fails
1
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 year ago
Thanks ! Yeah I got a good feeling about this one... and if not, we can still win the coin toss :D
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
As a Kamala holder, I'm reassured to see Donaldihno Trumpito on our side. First, cuz it's a great screen name but also, dude's one of the brightest traders at Poly.
1
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Kamala holders have an alternative theory of the case to Trump holders' view that this will be determined by coin flip tomorrow. Tbh, I don't know for sure we're right, but I also couldn't find any absolute proof that we're wrong. Weird little market.
0
AllForOne
1 year ago
Why Kamala price’s so high. I D’ont understand
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
My guess is a lot of JustKam's positions are either decoys or shares 'accidentally' bought when seeking Rewards. Outside of that account's biggest positions I wouldn't trust anything I see.
0
BiggestBidenFan
1 year ago
JustKam has entered the chat (check Holders)
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Habit.
0
no.nickname
1 year ago
So why did you buy more?
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I've been sitting around this poker table for a while now, but I can't spot the sucker.
1
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I try to keep an eye on Poly's brightest minds to learn what I can and you, Sir, made this market your bitch. I'm somewhere between impressed and amazed.
1
aenews2
1 year ago
because the film was a big success
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The yes win in the August market ate me for lunch, but what the hell, I'm back for more.
0
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1
just.some.guy
1 year ago
At a minimum, I'll swing by between each leg; maybe we can help add to the volume numbers a bit. Win, lose or draw, this is a fun, well written parlay.
3
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Amen
1
yourrapist1776
1 year ago
Poly, we need a lot more of these this nfl season
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I like your screen name.
0
Justsomeguy
1 year ago
This one is a lock. Kamala has literally voiced support for a bill that taxes unrealized gains
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I like pronouncing his last name: M-nuch-in
0
Steven-Mnuchin
1 year ago
New: Kamala Harris campaign has just accepted in a letter to ABC News the rules of next week's debate against Donald trump, including mics being muted when it's not a candidate's turn to speak, per person familiar with debate negotiations. https://x.com/mj_lee/status/1831439574134063171?s=46&t=T4NQlMZZsyqNZOX--BeTkw
Who is asked the first debate question?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I've lived my entire life by a single axiom: Tails never fails.
3
NFL Kickoff: Chiefs vs. Ravens
just.some.guy
1 year ago
They've got everyone for 1st TD, if int: https://polymarket.com/event/chiefs-vs-ravens-first-td-scorer?tid=1725564911045
0
Surebets.bet
1 year ago
More TD scorers?
NFL Kickoff: Chiefs vs. Ravens
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Thanks for adding some props. Maybe some RB or WR ov/un's next? Thanks, you guys rock.
1
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Every time I promise myself, "I'm going to stop making stupid mistakes....."
0
Netanyahu out by October 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm not a big fan of Netanyahu, but I admit he's a great politician.
1
Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Unfortunately, the answer is No. Disputes over rules happen all the time and they're decided by a very non impartial organization called the UMA. Best place to get more info is Poly's Discord channel; there you'll get replies some of which might even be right.
0
Champ
1 year ago
I'm new here. Is there a way to ask the resolvers a clarification question about what counts as a prison sentence?
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks
3
Shayku
1 year ago
If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
And you expect she'd choose Fox News? Would Trump ever do a debate hosted by MSNBC? Ever wonder why that is?
1
0xNabs
1 year ago
Getting ready for the bottom price on this one on the 4th and load up - chances are she will need more debates after her polls start tanking…!
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
you're sure? the pricing suggests 5
0
DAT
1 year ago
still 4 aliens
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
nice work. also, great screen name
0
SaudiMinisterOfHomeEntertainment
1 year ago
holy moly
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
"Acclimented"
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Why do some posters attack holders of the other side? You'd change positions if you thought the percentages had changed, right? Plus, it's just an unkind, uncool thing to do.
2
Diegley
1 year ago
You fearmongering retards should have listened
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Absolutely, yes. I'm very bad at Polymarket.
0
ThisIsSparta
1 year ago
Of course a humanitarian pause would not count. It's basically over. People who bought YES are delusional, lol.
What will Kamala say during CNN interview?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
one error: joyful was actually 894 times. easy mistake to make
0
LMNOP
1 year ago
UPDATED to include "Joy". Here is a summary of her word counts from her DNC acceptance speech. She spoke for 35 minutes. Abortion 4; Artificial Intelligence 1; Beyonce 0; Border 7; Ceasefire 1; Crypto/Bitcoin 0; DEI 0; Democracy 2; Inflation 0; JD Vance 0; Joy 849; Oakland 1; Palestine/Palestinian 1; Project 2025 1; Prosecutor 3; San Francisco 0; Tips 0; Wall 0; Weird 0; Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.
Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in August?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
he said, tempting fate...
1
0xb27d8B9Ef5935a763aFdE9737204934888e5Fc9c-1720902678412
1 year ago
Just hit 39.9, looking like Yes is in the bag.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
The stuff you're posting about happens pretty much every day.
0
MD80PFF
1 year ago
Netanyahu to convene security cabinet shortly The Israeli prime minister will convene his security cabinet at 7:00am local time (04:00GMT), according to Israeli media. The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu and Gallant were earlier at the Israeli military’s headquarters in Tel Aviv “managing the incident” in the north.
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
He can't make a bad call. The model itself produces the pick and that's a stats based, automated system.
0
Fred19999
1 year ago
What's stopping Nate buying No, and making a bad call?
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Even if the Harris campaign thought Brett Baier and Martha MacCallum could be fair moderators -- which they don't -- they'd still never accept a debate on Fox due to the risk there'd be 10 questions on immigration/border and zero on abortion.
1
tomatreides
1 year ago
Decent chance he uses the "backing out on ABC" as leverage to get a FOX debate.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
i'm cooked.
4
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
probably nbc on sept 25th.
0
mr.ozi
1 year ago
It ain't happening, now or by the deadline on Oct 15. They will likely make a second debate on CNN/CNBC/etc.
Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I traded this market like a total dipshit. I'm firing myself and walking away.
0
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
his voice, his grating voice
2
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
RFK announced his Trump endorsement in a PA court filing: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-endorses-trump/index.html
1
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
2pm eastern time
2
rugbet
1 year ago
wen he speak
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
joyful's not a compound word. joy-maker would be.
0
ejgejg
1 year ago
She said “joyful”, which is literally a compound word and counts per the rules. How is that not 99% already lol
Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, solid screen name / tagline.
1
MyLossIsYourGain
1 year ago
Trump is desperate to have even 1 percentage of edge against Kamala, even if the quid pro quo deal looks bad for the optics.
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Rewards are currently 120.
2
0x34a42279AD
1 year ago
The depth in this market has increased like crazy over the past 10hr. Why is that? It increased by about a factor of 50 or so!
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Sweet, nice to have an mpox researcher on our side. Do you like no in the Sept 30 market as well?
1
0x34a42279AD
1 year ago
I'm actually studying mpox. Like for real, I'm a scientist. First time I can make money simply by what I know about a disease.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
So this market's being decided through an obscure, non-transparent voting system that insiders understand, but the rest of us don't. Annoying, that.
2
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
thanks
0
aenews2
1 year ago
They didn't vote for No. They voted that it was too early to close, punting decision to future.
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Clades and "sexual networks", I'm learning a lot from this market.
7
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Front loaded, so even more per day for the next week or so.
0
MichaelBurryd
1 year ago
Fair decay value is 3-4% a day from here. That's 3-4 pennies a day! Lays where are them orders at?
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, solid thought
0
XiJinPing
1 year ago
Can someone sacrafice themselves? Go to Africa, have gay sex, come back, get tested, make $$$$$.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I thought the Maduro vote was BS, but since this mkt could also get closed using that as precedent, I think I'm gonna bail.
0
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Heck, we don't even know for certain what the "military action" was: a bomb, an airstrike as Iran believes, a drone attack or some other, as yet unknown method. Without knowing for sure what the military action was, how can UMA voters even begin to analyze whether it qualifies as a "military action" under the rules? But since the same reasoning UMA used in the Maduro election dispute could also be used here, namely that main source for determining the market is silent, a "consensus of credible reporting" can be substituted.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Heck, we don't even know for certain what the "military action" was: a bomb, an airstrike as Iran believes, a drone attack or some other, as yet unknown method. Without knowing for sure what the military action was, how can UMA voters even begin to analyze whether it qualifies as a "military action" under the rules? But since the same reasoning UMA used in the Maduro election dispute could also be used here, namely that main source for determining the market is silent, a "consensus of credible reporting" can be substituted.
0
crow
1 year ago
There is no conclusive proof that the killing of Haniyeh was done by Israel. Iran has blamed Israel but Israel has denied the allegations and no one has provided any conclusive evidence to support this allegation
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It was, but that was the first proposal. I think UMA voted against closing the mkt by about 70-30. I guess since a closure's been proposed again there'll be another vote? Since nothing's changed re: Haniyeh since the first vote, why would this vote come out differently? Thanks for any info; I'm new and this is my first disputed mkt
0
CouchWhale
1 year ago
I think it was proposed after the Ismail Haniyeh assassination.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
By 'nothing ever happens', do you mean the disputes never work and the markets generally close? And if so, shouldn't you and I be dumping all our no shares? Thanks
1
dreamer
1 year ago
Final review: Nothing ever happens
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I'm new; could some kind soul help me out on how disputes work? Cuz I thought 'UMA' already voted on whether Haniyeh met the criteria to close the mkt and they voted for no like 70-30, or something. Since nothing's changed since the first vote, how could the second vote go the other way? I mean, it's the same voters, isn't it? Thanks for any info.
1
Iran military response by Friday?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
heh, solid post. is your screen name a phone number? i ask because i'm originally from that area code.
0
7153649820
1 year ago
As a centrist, I think all sides are good and totally justified in their actions. I just hope all sides have fun doing whatever they are going to do.
Maduro out in 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Domah, apparently.
1
TimeQuestion
1 year ago
Who defines who is President of Venezuela?
Fantasy Football: Top QB 2024
just.some.guy
1 year ago
There's an Other category
0
0x31662eeD092861Bc5B133c707f4564010E2937A9-1723517015878
1 year ago
Penix?
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Or was it an airstrike? Who knows. One thing's for sure: we can't discuss whether a qualifying "military action" as defined in the Rules has taken place until we know what that action was.
3
Justifax
1 year ago
It wasn't an air strike, though quite a few outlets reported that.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Only 3 hours old: A Hamas official in Iran refutes reports that the explosion that killed the Palestinian terror group leader Ismail Haniyeh this week was set off by a bomb in his room at a Tehran guesthouse, according to an Arab media report. A report in the London-based news outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed quotes Khaled Qaddoumi as saying it was “clear from the appearance of the place after the attack and what happened to it, and from the body of the martyr leader Ismail Haniyeh, that the targeting was carried out by an airborne projectile, whether it was a missile or a shell.”
1
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Nobody even knows what happened, much less who did it:
1
Maduro out before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Pinochet would never let that happen. Today's dictators are weak
0
Justifax
1 year ago
That should resolve as NO and is a new market.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Haniyeh’s assassination, without consultation or warning to the Americans, shows the modern dynamic in American-Israeli relations: the tail wags the dog.
2
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
just out of curiosity, how?
0
Car
1 year ago
Biden can also die without kamala becoming the president
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
It sounds like there's 4 or 5 guys in the same boat. If anybody solves it, post and let the others know how.
0
TestMeNow
1 year ago
I bought no, but I cant sell it, and it doesnt show in portfolio and my balance went down lol
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
good luck w/ the deposit. just a friendly head's up: you can also play the Biden health angle in the DNC speech market. It's a little more expensive, but you'd get paid in a month instead of in 6. If interested: https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-speak-at-the-dnc?tid=1721721988867
0
infinitiphantom
1 year ago
Why is my USDC deposit not hitting…. I did two transfers here both from exchange one after the other and second one hit and first one didn’t… but contract says successful. Anyone ever have this issue? Trying to lock in this bet….
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
they've got a live chat on the deposit page; i'd start there.
0
infinitiphantom
1 year ago
Why is my USDC deposit not hitting…. I did two transfers here both from exchange one after the other and second one hit and first one didn’t… but contract says successful. Anyone ever have this issue? Trying to lock in this bet….
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
i think that's true, but would he when isolating from covid?
1
KevinW23
1 year ago
Unconfirmed, but supposedly Biden's has no meetings this week which would be very odd: https://x.com/RealMattCouch/status/1815607823608295824
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
i assume it's health, but it doesn't make sense the biden speaks at the DNC market's not crashing too.
0
just.some.guy
1 year ago
this, i guess? https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/where-is-joe-biden-us-president-has-not-been-seen-publicly-since-drop-out-announcement/ar-BB1qqF7F?ocid=BingNewsSerp&cvid=5e0ab15b85634a8d8ed5ba1b94046e72&ei=16
Will Biden finish his term?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
this, i guess? https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/where-is-joe-biden-us-president-has-not-been-seen-publicly-since-drop-out-announcement/ar-BB1qqF7F?ocid=BingNewsSerp&cvid=5e0ab15b85634a8d8ed5ba1b94046e72&ei=16
0
Apsalar
1 year ago
what the fuck is happening here
DNC open convention?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
yeah and i'm guessing the virtual roll call for biden = no will transfer into a virtual roll call for harris = no, too, but rules cucking is always on the board.
0
discsDontLie
1 year ago
"If a nominee is selected on the first ballot, this market will resolve to "No."" So even if there are multiple serious candidates running during the convention, if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote on the first ballot this market resolves to No??
When will Democratic Nominee be chosen?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
y, mike dewine. he's a great governor
0
GgJ
1 year ago
The Gov there made a ruling to extend till August 31. He is Republican by the way
Democratic Nominee 2024
just.some.guy
1 year ago
FWIW, he was on CNN earlier tonight and said he wasn't running.
1
InNeedof10x
1 year ago
Dean Philiips came in second after Biden in the Primary so choosing him would be the most democratic process. He was among the first to openly express concerns about Bidens age and declining health while Harris kept quiet about it and comes across as very insincere and is polling even worse than Biden. In elections white male candidates have generally appealed to a wider audience potentially helping secure swing states and crucial electoral votes. They could keep Kamala as Vice President. Also Dean Phillips has a reputation for working across party lines and could help bridge divides possibly even attracting voters who lean towards Trump. At 54 years old he offers a nice youthfull contrast to Biden.
Republican VP nominee?
just.some.guy
1 year ago
I don't post much, but I saw on Twitter that Domah made $430k on Vance. Respect. Render unto Ceasar, and all that.
1
Democratic Nominee 2024
just.some.guy
1 year ago
michelle obama. there's a fake vid of a CNN analyst calling her that.
1
buweeo
1 year ago
who tf is “Big Mike”
Democratic Nominee 2024
just.some.guy
1 year ago
Hi, I'm new. Does Domer = Domah = RevengeTour19B4? Thanks
2
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
14.3 million primary votes! 🥳🥳🥳 Joe Biden is the best to ever do it!