#184
Rank
146
Comments
68
Likes Received
7
Likes Given
USD worth more than Euro before 2025?
BetMoarBoyBilly
1 month ago
because poly staff are stupid, they can't tell time
1
PostIt
1 month ago
Why is Jan 31, 2025 the estimated end date for this market ?
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
BetMoarBoyBilly
1 month ago
oh fuck why rewards is now down to 15
1
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
Sara is 18
0
ShowBaer
2 months ago
Sara is 19! 2 weeks to go!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
why you steal my range?
0
50-Pence
2 months ago
It will be 1.96-2.04 in my calculations
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
others should be far more than 2.83M though, it stands at 1.85% now already
0
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
then his number is for sure wrong, as currently uselectionatlas.org is already @ 1.85% approx
1
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I am very sad, I thought this was a sure thing, but I see you sold a couple days ago I was starting to doubt myself
0
YatSen
2 months ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
AP/Google's number didn't include write-in, I initially used that number and was pretty sure it should go to NO, but now I think it is more like 50/50
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
it seems for the most state that finished counting, the write-in numbers is larger than 2020
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
it would be also very unlikely it'll end up lower than 1.95 so that's my range
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
He didn't count write-ins
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
why the hell you know exactly when to exit?
1
YatSen
2 months ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
well I hate taking bets like this, maybe I am fine with 10k, initially I thought it was a sure thing, certainly not 150k of this
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I took no advise, I ran the numbers myself and it's gonna be close, likely end up with 1.95-2.05
0
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I would say this year would add at least 0.1% it would be very close, I overbet too much :(
2
Green
2 months ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
It's same theboybilly
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I am still TheBoyBilly on Discord
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
We've created something beautiful here together. NO holders can now buy NO at a discount and YES holders can take some profits. I am so grateful to be apart of this amazing community. Fellow YES holders, if you want to chat on Discord, please reply to this with your handle
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
Can you send me a message through Discord?
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
my intention was getting 100k NO, but due to trying to get the rewards I got 160K NOs at most, and I am not that bullish on NO anymore, I will have to take some losses as I think it is now more like 50/50, you did make a good case for yes
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
just find it from the resolution data site, and you can compare this year's data with 2020, for states like FL, you see they should finish counting everything, and you can compare with 2020
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
based on windtalk's information, I calculated there are around 220k write in votes being missing from the count which would make this very close to 2% but still slightly under however I was certainly overpaying @ 92 for those NO
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
If it can exceed 160M vote total, then I think 2% + would really be possible
0
Betwick
2 months ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I calculated 4.1256% for the latest update, to reach 2% if there is 160M votes, it needs 4.46%, 158M 5.12%, 155M 7.21% I guess the Nos are pretty safe, no?
2
Betwick
2 months ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
@4trumppppp your bot got an error setting?
1
Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
why no "other" option
0
Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote. needs quite a while
0
whoiam
2 months ago
when we can claim?
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
fuck me I hate CNN
4
Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
too expensive and only 5 rewards noone wants to propose lol
1
ddAnon
2 months ago
wen resolve?
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
well basically GOP basically never lose white women besides one 3 way dance that's from since 1960s
0
Donkov
2 months ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
well white women was like a no brainer I don't know why it dropped to lower than 50 in the first place
0
Donkov
2 months ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
well we need to make sure CNN don't c....t
0
thares
2 months ago
Congrats Billy xD
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
well we need to make sure CNN don't cheat
1
thares
2 months ago
Congrats Billy xD
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
Can we trust the white women?
1
Donkov
2 months ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I think they are more intelligent than some black women who used to be Indian
9
mrmotion
2 months ago
Keep in mind, white women are retarded
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
GOP hardly lose white women and they lose big when they don't win white women
5
GoldmanSachs
2 months ago
Is there a world Harris wins white women and loses?
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I believe in white women, at least they won't claim they are black like some vice president did lol
3
Donkov
2 months ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
don't think it will go over 140 though
0
200$👻
2 months ago
[1.30, 1.46] ~ 1.38 at 95% confidence interval.
Who will win white women?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
am I stupid?
7
itiswhatitis123
2 months ago
why was this at 29%???
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
It looks like after 31st it would sit in around 0.057 or so, last year's adjustment compare to average is around 0.06, this is very difficult to forecast
0
0x6064c928E923c4d0d3c7487dAD1e6834e9481aF8-1722255923106
2 months ago
By the way, the ERA5 is 0.04c cooler than last year. The standard deviation of monthly temperature changes from 2023 to 2024 for gistemp and ERA5 was 0.0643.
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
But it is quite strange that you sold some of your holdings, here's my projection, 126-134 only considering the first 29 days, however considering the trend it would be 128-136. So there is a chance that YES would win, but still I think the market is priced quite correctly
0
easyn1
2 months ago
Its pretty warm here today
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
I have to also warn ppl that last year NOAA is a bit lower than ERA5, compare with average, the adjustment was around 0.06c, Also in July, ERA5 was 0.04 lower than last year however the result is 0.02 higher in NASA's result
1
GoldenGolfball
2 months ago
Do whatever you like fellas, but according to the ERA5 data, october 2024 is just 0.002 degrees colder than 2023 SO FAR: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv . As you can see, the last days of october 2023 were cold (last days of october 2024 are way hotter). If the last remaining days in october 2024 continue this trend, it'll bring the average up more than 0.002 degrees which means october 2024 will be hotter.
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
your math is wrong, 1-27 Oct 2024 is around 0.1c lower than 2023, 15.293 vs 15.39
0
GoldenGolfball
2 months ago
Do whatever you like fellas, but according to the ERA5 data, october 2024 is just 0.002 degrees colder than 2023 SO FAR: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv . As you can see, the last days of october 2023 were cold (last days of october 2024 are way hotter). If the last remaining days in october 2024 continue this trend, it'll bring the average up more than 0.002 degrees which means october 2024 will be hotter.
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
from 1-27 Oct 2024 is around 0.1c lower than 2023
2
Drachenstark
2 months ago
Looking at the current data from ecmwf it must be a hot end of the month to still beat 2023. It'll be hard to beat the lead 2023 got from the days of 9-12 Oktober.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
BetMoarBoyBilly
2 months ago
please don't buy more no's I am so scared....
10
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
It's really hot this year
0
Alexander0x
3 months ago
It's getting hot in here
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
I am just a poor boy I need no sympathy, Because I'm easy come, easy go, Little high, little low, Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me!
7
aenews2
3 months ago
Feeling nervous yet, Billy?
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
I am calm as always it's just money and maybe some tip
3
aenews2
3 months ago
Feeling nervous yet, Billy?
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
For starters 2023's Oct Data is slightly lower than average for NOAA ones, thus this month it basically needs to get a bit lower than last year to resolve it to no, or maybe I am wrong, I guess aenews knows it, but he refuse to teach me.. sad
0
Iv3X
3 months ago
i believe in the NASA stats and most of all on Billy
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Well I am a net loser
3
Iv3X
3 months ago
i believe in the NASA stats and most of all on Billy
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Yeah I know, I am messing up with ya, but don't forget to tip
1
aenews2
3 months ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Well, it is never a bad thing to be nice to each other, but guess you think otherwise, even if you dont wanna tip me you don't need to be mean.
3
aenews2
3 months ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Make sure you tip me a little bit after winning
2
aenews2
3 months ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
seems I paid too much for no if you guys win you should give me a small tip
3
aenews2
3 months ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Don't worry, we will lose together
5
Schorle65
3 months ago
Curious to hear your thoughts on this. So far, 15 out of 17 days in October 2024 have been colder than those of October 2023 (which was the hottest ever recorded). The data is based on the daily ERA5 update (global surface air and global sea temperatures), which overall is very close to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
Guys I think it is either Yes or Too early P4, it can't be NO, because the election is not yet there he can be involved with another token if not this one, correct?
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
yeah me too 50/50 sounds pretty good lol
2
Skip-Earthwax
3 months ago
I'm scared. Let's call it 50/50 p3
JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
looks like it will not resolve in a few days, I have a block of 99.5 for you to move on if you wanna sell
0
Kamala Harris 538 odds >60% Friday?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
He thinks he can dispute and earn some quick 500 USDC, while actually the datapoint has already been available for Oct.5, so now everyone needs to wait for 3 more days, make sure UMA votes correctly so those kind of scam would never happen in the future.
1
betyonko
3 months ago
Resolve the market already. The resolution is clearly 'NO'.
Kamala Harris 538 odds >60% Friday?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
because someone tried to dispute twice
0
betyonko
3 months ago
Resolve the market already. The resolution is clearly 'NO'.
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
I would appreciate if you can fill me back @ 10
0
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
fk my fingers
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
if you got bought
0
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
fk my fingers
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
fk my fingers
1
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
oh fuck
0
Who will speak more at VP Debate?
BetMoarBoyBilly
3 months ago
by how much time?
0
Justind217
3 months ago
first commercial break and Vance is in the lead lets gooo
What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
I think 2, if 3 already the price should be in 90+
1
Ahilan
4 months ago
can someone confirm for me, there were already 3 magas right??
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
she could die
0
iamhungry
4 months ago
There is no way she drops out
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
they started this cycle with 25 hikes
0
TOBE
4 months ago
I think its the opposite...we have a higher chance of rescession if fed does 25....Powell needs to get rates down fast....hes behind....he will do a 50 beacuse he cant do a 25 then change to a 50...they started with 75 hikes
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
should I trust you? so much money at stake
1
99TrillionUSD
4 months ago
This will be my last comment until the interest rate is announced. Do not fall for the manipulations and do not sell your positions. We saw all the data, it will be .25 decrease.
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
Haha
0
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
Today the full reward for this market is $10 and I got 6.69, and you say you are here first and this belongs to you, looks like you are good at math just like Harris
0
Car
4 months ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
there are a lot of places to get more than 1% in 2 months
5
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
fake news I am the one who proposed you are just lying like harris, go away
0
Car
4 months ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
You guys are doing the same shit why should I stop why don't you stop?
0
Car
4 months ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
I have all day to play with you
0
Car
4 months ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
never
0
Car
4 months ago
Billy can you stop?
What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
because he normally says it 1-3 times
6
Bumba
4 months ago
how did people know he wasn't gonna say MAGA 4+ times
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
if you know who are those idiots in the uma discord you won't risk it to propose
1
caesar
4 months ago
Rules are written as if there's only one update a day, but not reason Nate couldn't update it multiple times (he won't). But not worth the risk of a dispute
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
can not resolve sep 6 has not passed, even very unlikely he might update twice today, anyone who resolve this would be scammed by those UMA idiots and you will lose your 750
0
MrNFT
4 months ago
Someone please resolve
What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 4, this market will resolve to "No". So all others no?
1
Will Barron Trump attend NYU?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
who the fuck disputed?
1
Will Barron Trump attend NYU?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
Never use market order in a environment that is not enough liquidity
0
Johnjones42
4 months ago
can someone explain what I did wrong
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
Even Poly geoblocks US users, still if you are from US you can use it
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
2
Car
4 months ago
maybe dont propose NO yet when market is over: https://x.com/intelFromBrian/status/1830010215875690963
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
Even if you ask Harris voters, I guess 9 out of 10 would answer it wrong
2
Panzwalizka
4 months ago
I will ask 10 random people on the street what they can hear. People not familiar with US politicts. They will say the truth. EASY ONE.
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
In the future all that we can hear would be "Let's go Brandon", no matter how you pronounce it
4
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
And it could have been tutor instead of teacher
0
Nucclear
4 months ago
1:06 "and my wife the English...sh..she told me my grammars not always correct."
Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?
BetMoarBoyBilly
4 months ago
He just tweet one, the always post rally video when finished, I guess he will post town hall video as well
0
cryptofreedom
4 months ago
30-34 wildly underpriced. He still has to tweet 3 more times this evening basically. Pattern shows he probably won't tweet overnight or before noon tomorrow.
2024 August hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
If you use Copernicus data you will lose, I lost 46K last month
3
SafeBets
5 months ago
From Copernicus' ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv 2023 Aug 1-25: 16.8604 2024 Aug 1-25: 16.8624 Either NASA measures sth different(ly) Or this market is very strange
2024 August hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Thanks aenews will buy more in a few days of the data I got are the ones I like,
1
BennyS
5 months ago
@TheBoyBilly how do you have a P/L of $2.17 with over 7 million in volume? 😂 😂
2024 August hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I lost my 50K winning in last month's weather bet..... that's why
1
BennyS
5 months ago
@TheBoyBilly how do you have a P/L of $2.17 with over 7 million in volume? 😂 😂
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I missed my 750 USDC
0
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I fucked up
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I propose to the wrong quest fuck
1
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I fucked up
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I fucked up
3
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
The main dispute is being whether the live mentions during the rolling call count or not
0
homosexual
5 months ago
Is there actually any question that it was 47 or is Billy just bad at winning?
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Sorry aenews I don't understand what you mean?
0
Flipp
5 months ago
Trump was mentioned 47 times Billy is going to lose this dispute.
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
please dispute me
1
Flipp
5 months ago
Trump was mentioned 47 times Billy is going to lose this dispute.
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I didn't say main stage, it says stage, each state has it's own stage, and it is audible on the stream
1
Eridpnc
5 months ago
"This market refers to anything said in person on the main stage of the United Center on the second night of the DNC. Programming is currently scheduled to begin at 5:30 PM CT and end at 10:15 PM CT (see: https://demconvention.com/schedule/)."
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Any live mention on stage which is audible on the stream of the event will count toward this market.
2
Eridpnc
5 months ago
"This market refers to anything said in person on the main stage of the United Center on the second night of the DNC. Programming is currently scheduled to begin at 5:30 PM CT and end at 10:15 PM CT (see: https://demconvention.com/schedule/)."
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Rules never said Roll don't count, I understand ads/videos don't count, or we will be over 100 already easily
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
5 months ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I welcome you to dispute my count I would have win more money
0
700to700k
5 months ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
You are welcome to dispute my count
0
700to700k
5 months ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Donald don't count, the rules is clear
0
MD80PFF
5 months ago
If Donald was counted it would be easily 55-60. They used it a bunch and it made me angry each time it happened
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
well you guys are welcome to dispute after I propose
2
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
5 months ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
you count wrong I already have 50 and I might have missed a few
1
700to700k
5 months ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I think you counted too much
3
Slaylorswift
5 months ago
We are at 55
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
his speech is extremely short
0
MD80PFF
5 months ago
Come on John, give us some Trumps
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I got 37 so I guess we are just about the same
2
MD80PFF
5 months ago
I got 38 right now... This current girl is giving us some good score lol
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I guess around 2 hours left
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
5 months ago
Im at 31 so far....
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
33 now
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
5 months ago
Im at 31 so far....
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Videos don't count at least 50 in the videos that played
0
publius2024
5 months ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Not looking good for yes half passed
1
publius2024
5 months ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I counted 28 but I might have missed some
1
publius2024
5 months ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
oh fuck 4 donald
0
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
He has always been a good man, he is the only current generation president that has not created any new wars
1
XiJinPing
5 months ago
Crooked Hiliary, Sleepy Joe, or Krazy Kamala definitely wouldn't do this.
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I will go to Beijing next month maybe
1
XiJinPing
5 months ago
congrats all 11-15 hodlers, we survived
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
不过我现在人在广西旅游呢
1
factman
5 months ago
同志们，我刚刚注意到是十四，不是十三。。。
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
我繁体简体都可以的，现在是香港人了，没有政治立场才比较容易赢吧
2
diddy
5 months ago
剩余二十一小时啊，还可以赢，但是我的情绪很不安aaaaaa
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
為何這麼多人講中文？
0
factman
5 months ago
习同志，在这儿吗？
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
This is what I found online, I am not sure if that's correct The World Health Organization (WHO) has not declared a pandemic for HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), but it has described the pandemic as a global public health issue. The pandemic began in 1981 and is still ongoing. As of July 2023, the WHO estimates that HIV/AIDS has killed about 40.4 million people and infected about 39 million people globally. 65% of those living with HIV are in the WHO African Region, where nearly 1 in 25 adults are infected. please let me know if I made a mistake
0
eb..
5 months ago
the math is spot on. I got to a similar conclusion. the price will very likely go up to a minimum of 30%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
when was AIDS being declared by WHO? I tried to search online but can't find any info, thanks
0
eb..
5 months ago
the math is spot on. I got to a similar conclusion. the price will very likely go up to a minimum of 30%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
sexually transmitted diseases has never been declared pandemics, previously pandemics are only being declared with airborne transmitted ones
0
Wisdomtime
5 months ago
The base rate is 2/7 fromPHEICs to Pandemics = 28%. The 7 includes previous mpox, and this one is more severe. Therefore 2/6 may be closer (33%). Even with some margin of error, the true probability could be closer to 20%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
confirmed what？
0
Yirmyah
5 months ago
Just confirmed
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I've been scammed by those UMA idiots so I know
2
BlackSky123
5 months ago
Can we go ahead and resolve this, or do we need to wait until the Olympics are officially over in a few hours?
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
If this country ties with any other for the greatest number of gold medals won, this market will resolve in favor of the country which won the most medals overall. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the country whose registered name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand at after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If you go resolve now those UMA whales will eat your 750, they are evil people
2
BlackSky123
5 months ago
Can we go ahead and resolve this, or do we need to wait until the Olympics are officially over in a few hours?
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
wanna fill my nos at $1?
0
notch
5 months ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
we lost
0
notch
5 months ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
well
0
notch
5 months ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
you became a whale after the newbie period
0
n/a
5 months ago
Yes, very strange, most no holders are losers and the yes holders are winners. And what is also strange: 11/15 accounts of no holders were registered in July/August. Is this normal behavior for newbies on this site? load up 50k and then go all-in on a single market?
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
you are joining the yes camp?
0
TheNoobBeaver
5 months ago
After careful reflection, THE PROBEAVER warns the NO buyers to evaluate their position well, doesn't bet everything, this market will be shock for everybody
Democratic Nominee 2024
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I guess this one takes longer time because the chain is longer? so it needs more time to resolve?
0
muusd
5 months ago
It has resolved to yes for Kamala, but it does not show a way to redeem. How long does it take for it to be redeemable?
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
why would he go to prison?
0
yourrapist1776
5 months ago
Either v-for-vanadium is an insider and you win & he goes to prison or he's just gambling and you got blown out chasing steam
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Are you still 100% sure we are gonna win?
0
SmartG
5 months ago
plz don't stop buying
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I lost 100k today on stock, now this? wtf.... I think I'm gonna kill myself soon
1
SmartG
5 months ago
don't overleveraged here dude, believe in science
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
if NASA screw me then I have nothing else to say
0
yourrapist1776
5 months ago
I think you are overleveraged here dude
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
What is going on here? seems like we lost the bet?
1
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
I am very scared
1
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
he looks like an insider he bought small on everything else
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
he looks like an insider he bought small on everything else
1
mango-lassi
5 months ago
This is not an insider, just someone with lot of money
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
But this one bought yes
0
BM5II5KJN2
5 months ago
NASA employee buying the orders up 🦅👍
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
But even tough it should not change the fact that 2023 is quite a bit hotter than 2024 (like 0.05c)
0
SmartG
5 months ago
I think copernicus data is already adjusted one, like July 22nd was initially 17.22c and later they change it to 17.15c, it's possible that NASA does not change it though
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
If they use copernicus data, and the methodology being the one described in the documentation, it seems very difficult to give out the result that 2024 is higher than 2023 unless cheating, especially since the last few days data coming down a little bit, I still don't understand why the market is trading towards yes maybe they know something we don't know?
1
bendover
5 months ago
Based on Copernicus data, both Air and Sea temperature were higher in July 2023 when compared to July 2024. Air Temp: 16.953 (July 2023) vs 16.907 (July 2024) | Sea Temp: 20.893 (July 2023) vs 20.876 (July 2024).
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
You are a genius, do you know where to find the raw data that NASA use to calculate?
0
bendover
5 months ago
Based on Copernicus data, both Air and Sea temperature were higher in July 2023 when compared to July 2024. Air Temp: 16.953 (July 2023) vs 16.907 (July 2024) | Sea Temp: 20.893 (July 2023) vs 20.876 (July 2024).
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
Where can I download the historical data of NASA?
0
Hussieny
5 months ago
both histroical data are there, go test the two models and then come here ask questions
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
5 months ago
take all the data from copernicus and run the average and you can calculate the difference and you see that in some years (mostly hotter years) they would adjust the data down a little bit and I see that on the NASA site it says using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment and I guess that's why the data is slightly different
2
tomn
6 months ago
How are you seeing / why would NASA eliminate outliers?
2024 July hottest on record?
BetMoarBoyBilly
6 months ago
NASA data using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment, while in 2023 they seems adjusted down for around 0.09c or so if this year they only adjusted down 0.05c it might be end up 0.01c higher than last year, is that possible? otherwise I don't see why no is locked in
1
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
BetMoarBoyBilly
6 months ago
Correct and Biden didn't resign
2
Eclipse
6 months ago
How is this less likely than Kamala president by Friday?
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
BetMoarBoyBilly
6 months ago
He can die or being forced out by 25th amendment
0
Eclipse
6 months ago
How is this less likely than Kamala president by Friday?