#164
Rank
177
Comments
86
Likes Received
7
Likes Given
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
9 months ago
I am stupid
2
patmcc88
9 months ago
billy dump
NBA Scoring Leader
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
This neg risk market is glitching?
0
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
So there is higher chance that "Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? " than Mainland China Invade Taiwan? Haha
14
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
add me as a friend so we can discuss things
0
Car
10 months ago
Billy you couldve also just donated this to us
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
come join betmoar discord and chat with stupid billy
0
Car
10 months ago
Billy you couldve also just donated this to us
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
because I am stupid
0
Car
10 months ago
Billy you couldve also just donated this to us
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
yeah wait till xi goes crazy, or if he does not I will go crazy first
1
Car
10 months ago
Billy you couldve also just donated this to us
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
10 months ago
who is that stupid Billy Boy?
0
igris
10 months ago
BetMoarBoyBilly just filled everyone's order
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
maybe needs 450 to ATM 1B each week though, but still that's possible if 120K bitcoin
0
Car
11 months ago
alright so 447,470BTC now. with the potential 2B$ coming, that would be 20,000BTC which is 467k btc. Also notice how every buy gets smaller lol
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
actually if they shareprice goes over 400 I think they can ATM 1B each week
0
Car
11 months ago
alright so 447,470BTC now. with the potential 2B$ coming, that would be 20,000BTC which is 467k btc. Also notice how every buy gets smaller lol
Global Heat Increase 2024
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
willing to fill you @98 for 100k if you are interested
2
niezeVeger
11 months ago
Sell me your YES'es you cowards
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
this $35 rewards just too risky for me now
1
MMousse
11 months ago
Poor Scotty doesnt realize i make $8.95 a day in liquidity rewards with all these shares
Election certified on January 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
I won too much I want to give it back to the poly society
3
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
I think we can actually do it, just find a few tesla and make some bombs into it, and then do it the las vegas way x 100, and we can delay it by 11 hours and yes will win lol
Election certified on January 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
I think we can actually do it, just find a few tesla and make some bombs into it, and then do it the las vegas way x 100, and we can delay it by 11 hours and yes will win lol
0
Election certified on January 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
but is there any previous case they certified in the AM? I mean before 11:59 AM in the morning?
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election are officially certified by Congress on January 6, 2025, PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Is there precedents that the vote is being certified in the AM or after 11:59 pm?
Election certified on January 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election are officially certified by Congress on January 6, 2025, PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Is there precedents that the vote is being certified in the AM or after 11:59 pm?
0
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
It's certainly doable if he successfully sold the 2B of the preferred stocks
3
Who will be inaugurated as President?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
maybe he just wanna used up your cash....
0
Car
11 months ago
LiberaceSparklebottom, what do you think is gonna happen on Jan 20? lol
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
I am just an idiot
1
iBoughtApropertyInEgypt
11 months ago
what ideots are buying yes lool
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
The spirit of the market seems to be, if you can freely use RMB to buy bitcoin, then it resolve to YES, but you can't even buy USD freely with RMB, so for bitcoin? goodluck in 2068
1
kavin2333
11 months ago
I'm not sure what the win condition for this is exactly, and what does it mean to "explicitly announces"? Must the Chinese government make an announcement telling everyone to rush out and buy bitcoin for the sake of the country? Or does it just have to mention that it's not illegal for individuals to hold it? China has never actually banned individuals from holding any form of digital assets, what's banned in China is virtual coin mining and unregulated blockchain business practices.
Who will attend Trump inauguration?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
actually I think Jimmy Carter might have a higher chance going lol
4
wyn
11 months ago
To all Xi no holders, even if you don’t think he will attend inauguration, how can you lay down 95c to win 5 on something where there’s actually a real possibility of him attending. It’s not like he’s never been to the USA. Trump praised him and was speaking very highly of Xi at his most recent press conference… Just warning no holders, take this at your own advice :)
Who will attend Trump inauguration?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
You think you can predict this bet better than Chinese? you are delusional
2
wyn
11 months ago
To all Xi no holders, even if you don’t think he will attend inauguration, how can you lay down 95c to win 5 on something where there’s actually a real possibility of him attending. It’s not like he’s never been to the USA. Trump praised him and was speaking very highly of Xi at his most recent press conference… Just warning no holders, take this at your own advice :)
USD worth more than Euro before 2025?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
because poly staff are stupid, they can't tell time
1
PostIt
11 months ago
Why is Jan 31, 2025 the estimated end date for this market ?
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
oh fuck why rewards is now down to 15
1
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
11 months ago
Now
1
MsKw2222
11 months ago
When will this ever settle?
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
0 years ago
I put up 30k at 97 if you want.
0
FilthyAnimal
0 years ago
oh look there's another neurodivergent person just like me
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
0 years ago
You want more shares?
1
FilthyAnimal
0 years ago
oh look there's another neurodivergent person just like me
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
you make mistakes from time to time, even when I trading on IBKR, I lost like 10K each year on my fat finger mistakes...
1
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
oh fuck what have I done
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I tried to make a sell order of 15000 @17 and I made a buy order @ 17 for 150000
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
oh fuck what have I done
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
oh fuck what have I done
15
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
damn we are gonna lose
1
debased
1 year ago
Rando Shangai court =/ chinese government
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
yeah indeed we are
1
JDoe
1 year ago
NO people are sweating right now LOOOOOL
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I don't think any Chinese with any kind of Intelligence would buy yes here, but I am afraid that some people would be stupid enough to resolve to yes, and then get 2 disputes and then the UMA might have a slight chance of voting the wrong way... would this get ridiculous?
2
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Sara is 18
0
ShowBaer
1 year ago
Sara is 19! 2 weeks to go!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
why you steal my range?
0
50-Pence
1 year ago
It will be 1.96-2.04 in my calculations
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
others should be far more than 2.83M though, it stands at 1.85% now already
0
mcpetrus
1 year ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
then his number is for sure wrong, as currently uselectionatlas.org is already @ 1.85% approx
1
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I am very sad, I thought this was a sure thing, but I see you sold a couple days ago I was starting to doubt myself
0
YatSen
1 year ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
AP/Google's number didn't include write-in, I initially used that number and was pretty sure it should go to NO, but now I think it is more like 50/50
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
it seems for the most state that finished counting, the write-in numbers is larger than 2020
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
it would be also very unlikely it'll end up lower than 1.95 so that's my range
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
He didn't count write-ins
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
why the hell you know exactly when to exit?
1
YatSen
1 year ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well I hate taking bets like this, maybe I am fine with 10k, initially I thought it was a sure thing, certainly not 150k of this
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I took no advise, I ran the numbers myself and it's gonna be close, likely end up with 1.95-2.05
0
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I would say this year would add at least 0.1% it would be very close, I overbet too much :(
2
Green
1 year ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
It's same theboybilly
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I am still TheBoyBilly on Discord
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
We've created something beautiful here together. NO holders can now buy NO at a discount and YES holders can take some profits. I am so grateful to be apart of this amazing community. Fellow YES holders, if you want to chat on Discord, please reply to this with your handle
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Can you send me a message through Discord?
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
my intention was getting 100k NO, but due to trying to get the rewards I got 160K NOs at most, and I am not that bullish on NO anymore, I will have to take some losses as I think it is now more like 50/50, you did make a good case for yes
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
just find it from the resolution data site, and you can compare this year's data with 2020, for states like FL, you see they should finish counting everything, and you can compare with 2020
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
based on windtalk's information, I calculated there are around 220k write in votes being missing from the count which would make this very close to 2% but still slightly under however I was certainly overpaying @ 92 for those NO
0
WindWalk2
1 year ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
If it can exceed 160M vote total, then I think 2% + would really be possible
0
Betwick
1 year ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I calculated 4.1256% for the latest update, to reach 2% if there is 160M votes, it needs 4.46%, 158M 5.12%, 155M 7.21% I guess the Nos are pretty safe, no?
2
Betwick
1 year ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
@4trumppppp your bot got an error setting?
1
Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
why no "other" option
0
Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote. needs quite a while
0
whoiam
1 year ago
when we can claim?
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
fuck me I hate CNN
4
Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
too expensive and only 5 rewards noone wants to propose lol
1
ddAnon
1 year ago
wen resolve?
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well basically GOP basically never lose white women besides one 3 way dance that's from since 1960s
0
Donkov
1 year ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well white women was like a no brainer I don't know why it dropped to lower than 50 in the first place
0
Donkov
1 year ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well we need to make sure CNN don't c....t
0
thares
1 year ago
Congrats Billy xD
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well we need to make sure CNN don't cheat
1
thares
1 year ago
Congrats Billy xD
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Can we trust the white women?
1
Donkov
1 year ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I think they are more intelligent than some black women who used to be Indian
9
mrmotion
1 year ago
Keep in mind, white women are retarded
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
GOP hardly lose white women and they lose big when they don't win white women
5
GoldmanSachs
1 year ago
Is there a world Harris wins white women and loses?
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I believe in white women, at least they won't claim they are black like some vice president did lol
3
Donkov
1 year ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
don't think it will go over 140 though
0
Prophet👻
1 year ago
[1.30, 1.46] ~ 1.38 at 95% confidence interval.
Who will win white women?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
am I stupid?
7
pawel
1 year ago
why was this at 29%???
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
It looks like after 31st it would sit in around 0.057 or so, last year's adjustment compare to average is around 0.06, this is very difficult to forecast
0
0x6064c928E923c4d0d3c7487dAD1e6834e9481aF8-1722255923106
1 year ago
By the way, the ERA5 is 0.04c cooler than last year. The standard deviation of monthly temperature changes from 2023 to 2024 for gistemp and ERA5 was 0.0643.
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
But it is quite strange that you sold some of your holdings, here's my projection, 126-134 only considering the first 29 days, however considering the trend it would be 128-136. So there is a chance that YES would win, but still I think the market is priced quite correctly
0
easyn1
1 year ago
Its pretty warm here today
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I have to also warn ppl that last year NOAA is a bit lower than ERA5, compare with average, the adjustment was around 0.06c, Also in July, ERA5 was 0.04 lower than last year however the result is 0.02 higher in NASA's result
1
GoldenGolfball
1 year ago
Do whatever you like fellas, but according to the ERA5 data, october 2024 is just 0.002 degrees colder than 2023 SO FAR: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv . As you can see, the last days of october 2023 were cold (last days of october 2024 are way hotter). If the last remaining days in october 2024 continue this trend, it'll bring the average up more than 0.002 degrees which means october 2024 will be hotter.
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
your math is wrong, 1-27 Oct 2024 is around 0.1c lower than 2023, 15.293 vs 15.39
0
GoldenGolfball
1 year ago
Do whatever you like fellas, but according to the ERA5 data, october 2024 is just 0.002 degrees colder than 2023 SO FAR: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv . As you can see, the last days of october 2023 were cold (last days of october 2024 are way hotter). If the last remaining days in october 2024 continue this trend, it'll bring the average up more than 0.002 degrees which means october 2024 will be hotter.
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
from 1-27 Oct 2024 is around 0.1c lower than 2023
2
Drachenstark
1 year ago
Looking at the current data from ecmwf it must be a hot end of the month to still beat 2023. It'll be hard to beat the lead 2023 got from the days of 9-12 Oktober.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
please don't buy more no's I am so scared....
10
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
It's really hot this year
0
Alexander0x
1 year ago
It's getting hot in here
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I am just a poor boy I need no sympathy, Because I'm easy come, easy go, Little high, little low, Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me!
7
aenews2
1 year ago
Feeling nervous yet, Billy?
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I am calm as always it's just money and maybe some tip
3
aenews2
1 year ago
Feeling nervous yet, Billy?
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
For starters 2023's Oct Data is slightly lower than average for NOAA ones, thus this month it basically needs to get a bit lower than last year to resolve it to no, or maybe I am wrong, I guess aenews knows it, but he refuse to teach me.. sad
0
Iv3X
1 year ago
i believe in the NASA stats and most of all on Billy
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Well I am a net loser
3
Iv3X
1 year ago
i believe in the NASA stats and most of all on Billy
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Yeah I know, I am messing up with ya, but don't forget to tip
1
aenews2
1 year ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Well, it is never a bad thing to be nice to each other, but guess you think otherwise, even if you dont wanna tip me you don't need to be mean.
3
aenews2
1 year ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Make sure you tip me a little bit after winning
2
aenews2
1 year ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
seems I paid too much for no if you guys win you should give me a small tip
3
aenews2
1 year ago
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024 October hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Don't worry, we will lose together
5
Schorle65
1 year ago
Curious to hear your thoughts on this. So far, 15 out of 17 days in October 2024 have been colder than those of October 2023 (which was the hottest ever recorded). The data is based on the daily ERA5 update (global surface air and global sea temperatures), which overall is very close to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Guys I think it is either Yes or Too early P4, it can't be NO, because the election is not yet there he can be involved with another token if not this one, correct?
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
yeah me too 50/50 sounds pretty good lol
2
Skip-Earthwax
1 year ago
I'm scared. Let's call it 50/50 p3
JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
looks like it will not resolve in a few days, I have a block of 99.5 for you to move on if you wanna sell
0
Kamala Harris 538 odds >60% Friday?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
He thinks he can dispute and earn some quick 500 USDC, while actually the datapoint has already been available for Oct.5, so now everyone needs to wait for 3 more days, make sure UMA votes correctly so those kind of scam would never happen in the future.
1
betyonko
1 year ago
Resolve the market already. The resolution is clearly 'NO'.
Kamala Harris 538 odds >60% Friday?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
because someone tried to dispute twice
0
betyonko
1 year ago
Resolve the market already. The resolution is clearly 'NO'.
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I would appreciate if you can fill me back @ 10
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
fk my fingers
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
if you got bought
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
fk my fingers
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
fk my fingers
1
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
oh fuck
0
Who will speak more at VP Debate?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
by how much time?
0
Justind217
1 year ago
first commercial break and Vance is in the lead lets gooo
What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I think 2, if 3 already the price should be in 90+
1
Ahilan
1 year ago
can someone confirm for me, there were already 3 magas right??
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
she could die
0
iamhungry
1 year ago
There is no way she drops out
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
they started this cycle with 25 hikes
0
TOBE
1 year ago
I think its the opposite...we have a higher chance of rescession if fed does 25....Powell needs to get rates down fast....hes behind....he will do a 50 beacuse he cant do a 25 then change to a 50...they started with 75 hikes
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
should I trust you? so much money at stake
1
99TrillionUSD
1 year ago
This will be my last comment until the interest rate is announced. Do not fall for the manipulations and do not sell your positions. We saw all the data, it will be .25 decrease.
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Haha
0
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Today the full reward for this market is $10 and I got 6.69, and you say you are here first and this belongs to you, looks like you are good at math just like Harris
0
Car
1 year ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
there are a lot of places to get more than 1% in 2 months
5
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
fake news I am the one who proposed you are just lying like harris, go away
0
Car
1 year ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
You guys are doing the same shit why should I stop why don't you stop?
0
Car
1 year ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I have all day to play with you
0
Car
1 year ago
Billy can you stop?
Will Francine hit US as a hurricane?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
never
0
Car
1 year ago
Billy can you stop?
What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
because he normally says it 1-3 times
6
Bumba
1 year ago
how did people know he wasn't gonna say MAGA 4+ times
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
if you know who are those idiots in the uma discord you won't risk it to propose
1
caesar
1 year ago
Rules are written as if there's only one update a day, but not reason Nate couldn't update it multiple times (he won't). But not worth the risk of a dispute
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
can not resolve sep 6 has not passed, even very unlikely he might update twice today, anyone who resolve this would be scammed by those UMA idiots and you will lose your 750
0
MrNFT
1 year ago
Someone please resolve
What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 4, this market will resolve to "No". So all others no?
1
Will Barron Trump attend NYU?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
who the fuck disputed?
1
Will Barron Trump attend NYU?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Never use market order in a environment that is not enough liquidity
0
Johnjones42
1 year ago
can someone explain what I did wrong
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Even Poly geoblocks US users, still if you are from US you can use it
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
2
Car
1 year ago
maybe dont propose NO yet when market is over: https://x.com/intelFromBrian/status/1830010215875690963
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Even if you ask Harris voters, I guess 9 out of 10 would answer it wrong
2
Panzwalizka
1 year ago
I will ask 10 random people on the street what they can hear. People not familiar with US politicts. They will say the truth. EASY ONE.
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
In the future all that we can hear would be "Let's go Brandon", no matter how you pronounce it
4
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
And it could have been tutor instead of teacher
0
Nucclear
1 year ago
1:06 "and my wife the English...sh..she told me my grammars not always correct."
Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
He just tweet one, the always post rally video when finished, I guess he will post town hall video as well
0
cryptofreedom
1 year ago
30-34 wildly underpriced. He still has to tweet 3 more times this evening basically. Pattern shows he probably won't tweet overnight or before noon tomorrow.
2024 August hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
If you use Copernicus data you will lose, I lost 46K last month
3
ImHereForTheRewards
1 year ago
From Copernicus' ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv 2023 Aug 1-25: 16.8604 2024 Aug 1-25: 16.8624 Either NASA measures sth different(ly) Or this market is very strange
2024 August hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Thanks aenews will buy more in a few days of the data I got are the ones I like,
1
BennyS
1 year ago
@TheBoyBilly how do you have a P/L of $2.17 with over 7 million in volume? 😂 😂
2024 August hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I lost my 50K winning in last month's weather bet..... that's why
1
BennyS
1 year ago
@TheBoyBilly how do you have a P/L of $2.17 with over 7 million in volume? 😂 😂
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I missed my 750 USDC
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I fucked up
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I propose to the wrong quest fuck
1
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I fucked up
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I fucked up
3
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
The main dispute is being whether the live mentions during the rolling call count or not
0
homosexual
1 year ago
Is there actually any question that it was 47 or is Billy just bad at winning?
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Sorry aenews I don't understand what you mean?
0
Flipp
1 year ago
Trump was mentioned 47 times Billy is going to lose this dispute.
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
please dispute me
1
Flipp
1 year ago
Trump was mentioned 47 times Billy is going to lose this dispute.
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I didn't say main stage, it says stage, each state has it's own stage, and it is audible on the stream
1
Eridpnc
1 year ago
"This market refers to anything said in person on the main stage of the United Center on the second night of the DNC. Programming is currently scheduled to begin at 5:30 PM CT and end at 10:15 PM CT (see: https://demconvention.com/schedule/)."
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Any live mention on stage which is audible on the stream of the event will count toward this market.
2
Eridpnc
1 year ago
"This market refers to anything said in person on the main stage of the United Center on the second night of the DNC. Programming is currently scheduled to begin at 5:30 PM CT and end at 10:15 PM CT (see: https://demconvention.com/schedule/)."
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Rules never said Roll don't count, I understand ads/videos don't count, or we will be over 100 already easily
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
1 year ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I welcome you to dispute my count I would have win more money
0
700to700k
1 year ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
You are welcome to dispute my count
0
700to700k
1 year ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Donald don't count, the rules is clear
0
MD80PFF
1 year ago
If Donald was counted it would be easily 55-60. They used it a bunch and it made me angry each time it happened
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well you guys are welcome to dispute after I propose
2
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
1 year ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
you count wrong I already have 50 and I might have missed a few
1
700to700k
1 year ago
47
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I think you counted too much
3
Slaylorswift
1 year ago
We are at 55
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
his speech is extremely short
0
MD80PFF
1 year ago
Come on John, give us some Trumps
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I got 37 so I guess we are just about the same
2
MD80PFF
1 year ago
I got 38 right now... This current girl is giving us some good score lol
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I guess around 2 hours left
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
1 year ago
Im at 31 so far....
# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
33 now
0
0x1EaB07C61989d5E0Fb7f4663a9C4024373e85692-1721588936007
1 year ago
Im at 31 so far....
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Videos don't count at least 50 in the videos that played
0
publius2024
1 year ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Not looking good for yes half passed
1
publius2024
1 year ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I counted 28 but I might have missed some
1
publius2024
1 year ago
How many so far?
Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
oh fuck 4 donald
0
How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
He has always been a good man, he is the only current generation president that has not created any new wars
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
Crooked Hiliary, Sleepy Joe, or Krazy Kamala definitely wouldn't do this.
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I will go to Beijing next month maybe
1
XiJinPing
1 year ago
congrats all 11-15 hodlers, we survived
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
不过我现在人在广西旅游呢
1
factman
1 year ago
同志们，我刚刚注意到是十四，不是十三。。。
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
我繁体简体都可以的，现在是香港人了，没有政治立场才比较容易赢吧
2
diddy
1 year ago
剩余二十一小时啊，还可以赢，但是我的情绪很不安aaaaaa
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
為何這麼多人講中文？
0
factman
1 year ago
习同志，在这儿吗？
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
This is what I found online, I am not sure if that's correct The World Health Organization (WHO) has not declared a pandemic for HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), but it has described the pandemic as a global public health issue. The pandemic began in 1981 and is still ongoing. As of July 2023, the WHO estimates that HIV/AIDS has killed about 40.4 million people and infected about 39 million people globally. 65% of those living with HIV are in the WHO African Region, where nearly 1 in 25 adults are infected. please let me know if I made a mistake
0
eb..
1 year ago
the math is spot on. I got to a similar conclusion. the price will very likely go up to a minimum of 30%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
when was AIDS being declared by WHO? I tried to search online but can't find any info, thanks
0
eb..
1 year ago
the math is spot on. I got to a similar conclusion. the price will very likely go up to a minimum of 30%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
sexually transmitted diseases has never been declared pandemics, previously pandemics are only being declared with airborne transmitted ones
0
Wisdomtime
1 year ago
The base rate is 2/7 fromPHEICs to Pandemics = 28%. The 7 includes previous mpox, and this one is more severe. Therefore 2/6 may be closer (33%). Even with some margin of error, the true probability could be closer to 20%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
confirmed what？
0
Yirmyah
1 year ago
Just confirmed
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I've been scammed by those UMA idiots so I know
2
BlackSky123
1 year ago
Can we go ahead and resolve this, or do we need to wait until the Olympics are officially over in a few hours?
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
If this country ties with any other for the greatest number of gold medals won, this market will resolve in favor of the country which won the most medals overall. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the country whose registered name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand at after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If you go resolve now those UMA whales will eat your 750, they are evil people
2
BlackSky123
1 year ago
Can we go ahead and resolve this, or do we need to wait until the Olympics are officially over in a few hours?
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
wanna fill my nos at $1?
0
notch
1 year ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
we lost
0
notch
1 year ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
well
0
notch
1 year ago
seriously wonder what was going thru the heads of no holders
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
you became a whale after the newbie period
0
n/a
1 year ago
Yes, very strange, most no holders are losers and the yes holders are winners. And what is also strange: 11/15 accounts of no holders were registered in July/August. Is this normal behavior for newbies on this site? load up 50k and then go all-in on a single market?
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
you are joining the yes camp?
0
TheNoobBeaver
1 year ago
After careful reflection, THE PROBEAVER warns the NO buyers to evaluate their position well, doesn't bet everything, this market will be shock for everybody
Democratic Nominee 2024
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I guess this one takes longer time because the chain is longer? so it needs more time to resolve?
0
muusd
1 year ago
It has resolved to yes for Kamala, but it does not show a way to redeem. How long does it take for it to be redeemable?
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
why would he go to prison?
0
yourrapist1776
1 year ago
Either v-for-vanadium is an insider and you win & he goes to prison or he's just gambling and you got blown out chasing steam
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Are you still 100% sure we are gonna win?
0
SmartG
1 year ago
plz don't stop buying
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I lost 100k today on stock, now this? wtf.... I think I'm gonna kill myself soon
1
SmartG
1 year ago
don't overleveraged here dude, believe in science
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
if NASA screw me then I have nothing else to say
0
yourrapist1776
1 year ago
I think you are overleveraged here dude
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
What is going on here? seems like we lost the bet?
1
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
I am very scared
1
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
he looks like an insider he bought small on everything else
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
he looks like an insider he bought small on everything else
1
mango-lassi
1 year ago
This is not an insider, just someone with lot of money
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
But this one bought yes
0
BM5II5KJN2
1 year ago
NASA employee buying the orders up 🦅👍
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
But even tough it should not change the fact that 2023 is quite a bit hotter than 2024 (like 0.05c)
0
SmartG
1 year ago
I think copernicus data is already adjusted one, like July 22nd was initially 17.22c and later they change it to 17.15c, it's possible that NASA does not change it though
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
If they use copernicus data, and the methodology being the one described in the documentation, it seems very difficult to give out the result that 2024 is higher than 2023 unless cheating, especially since the last few days data coming down a little bit, I still don't understand why the market is trading towards yes maybe they know something we don't know?
1
bendover
1 year ago
Based on Copernicus data, both Air and Sea temperature were higher in July 2023 when compared to July 2024. Air Temp: 16.953 (July 2023) vs 16.907 (July 2024) | Sea Temp: 20.893 (July 2023) vs 20.876 (July 2024).
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
You are a genius, do you know where to find the raw data that NASA use to calculate?
0
bendover
1 year ago
Based on Copernicus data, both Air and Sea temperature were higher in July 2023 when compared to July 2024. Air Temp: 16.953 (July 2023) vs 16.907 (July 2024) | Sea Temp: 20.893 (July 2023) vs 20.876 (July 2024).
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Where can I download the historical data of NASA?
0
Hussieny
1 year ago
both histroical data are there, go test the two models and then come here ask questions
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
take all the data from copernicus and run the average and you can calculate the difference and you see that in some years (mostly hotter years) they would adjust the data down a little bit and I see that on the NASA site it says using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment and I guess that's why the data is slightly different
2
tomn
1 year ago
How are you seeing / why would NASA eliminate outliers?
2024 July hottest on record?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
NASA data using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment, while in 2023 they seems adjusted down for around 0.09c or so if this year they only adjusted down 0.05c it might be end up 0.01c higher than last year, is that possible? otherwise I don't see why no is locked in
1
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
Correct and Biden didn't resign
2
Eclipse
1 year ago
How is this less likely than Kamala president by Friday?
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
ExhaustedBoyBilly
1 year ago
He can die or being forced out by 25th amendment
0
Eclipse
1 year ago
How is this less likely than Kamala president by Friday?