#190
Rank
246
Comments
98
Likes Received
375
Likes Given
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
A signal for 154m. LA County only has 526k left to process, down from 956k estimated on the SOS website. But they added 200k to the total votes, now at 3.3m votes, this means the unprocessed ballots were overestimated by about 230k. https://laist.com/news/politics/voter-turnout-2024-general-la-orange-county
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It's basically a coin flip at this point. To be over 155, there would need to be 98%+ turnout of the 2020 election.
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
are you aware, contrary to your claims, that UF election project actually estimated 158 million originally? They brought it back down.
0
Justifax
1 year ago
I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
explain where I have "pumped" ANYTHING 🤣
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Justifax
1 year ago
I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
UnlimitedMarketAbuse earlier claimed that university of Florida's estimate of 154 million was done intentionally to manipulate the market so they could profit on PolyMarket. Don't listen to his advice.
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
"1m ahead" is not something you put "only" in front of
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Justifax
1 year ago
AP is reporting 6.2M, and Sos is reporting 4.9M+.12 for 5.1M. So AP is only 1M ahead of the current report. We'll find out more very soon, though.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
so what? University of Florida already included this figure. Doesn't get you past 154.
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Justifax
1 year ago
https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/47/0 AZ is reporting 438K, which is close enough to AP
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
No, lol. AP total would bring you to 18.26 million. California SOS would bring you to 16.4 million. So AP is over by 1.8 million.
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Justifax
1 year ago
AP is reporting 6.2M, and Sos is reporting 4.9M+.12 for 5.1M. So AP is only 1M ahead of the current report. We'll find out more very soon, though.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
University of Florida has taken into account yet to be counted ballots, and they come in at 154 million. AP are implausibly overestimating California by 2.5 million over 2020 turnout, which is not going to happen. Turnout is way down.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
why would you put AP numbers up when they are clearly fucking wrong? Lmfao
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Justifax
1 year ago
Here are the states greater than 50k, in sorted order by remaining ballots GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
my stance is that it's very close to 155, and probably under given University of Florida team of statisticians was correct in 2020 too.
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Justifax
1 year ago
I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I haven't argued "one side", I am arguing against the narrative of these faulty estimates based on incomplete data. People want that knowledge.
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Justifax
1 year ago
I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
you're the only one talking about 'pumping' and conspiracy theories. We have to wonder about your alt account, actually.
0
Justifax
1 year ago
I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I haven't even decided which side to buy yet, so stop with the smearing.
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Justifax
1 year ago
You'll keep hearing this ignorance/lie about lower turnout across the board. It's false. For example, Nevada has had higher turnout and they're not done counting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada Some people will say absolutely anything they can, but they do reveal themselves for who they truly are, which helps.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nevada is a SWING STATE, the turnout is going to be higher. The states with the population necessary to get this over 155 are not swing states. Jesus Christ you need to stop with the conspiracy theories about my commenting.
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Justifax
1 year ago
You'll keep hearing this ignorance/lie about lower turnout across the board. It's false. For example, Nevada has had higher turnout and they're not done counting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada Some people will say absolutely anything they can, but they do reveal themselves for who they truly are, which helps.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
We already know AP is overestimating Californias uncounted ballots by 2.5 million... but I took a look at other states. Maryland allegedly has 300k to count, which would mean it has higher voter turnout than 2020. That is controversial, because it's not a swing state. I think the estimates of 155+ are on shaky ground. University of Florida seems to agree.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nope, AP and NEP are overestimating remaining ballots in MD. If there were 300k, then turnout would be higher in 2024 vs 2020.
1
plymarket-user
1 year ago
It really come down to the question if CA is 75% complete in counting or 66%. Depending on the source, I estimate 154.3m - 156.5m. This is a fun one to watch!
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Those have been well accounted for in the election project Florida data. The only controversy is California.
1
plymarket-user
1 year ago
It really come down to the question if CA is 75% complete in counting or 66%. Depending on the source, I estimate 154.3m - 156.5m. This is a fun one to watch!
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Do the math and it seems AP have overestimated California by at least 2.5 million. Wtf are they doing. Deduct that from Nate Silvers estimate and now you're at 154 million.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nate Silvers estimate of 156.5 relies on the AP figures, which are ridiculous. They estimate 18.93 million voters in Cali? Cali only got 17.5m in 2020 and turnout is WAY DOWN. NEP and California SOS both estimate 16.1 to 16.3.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
those remaining counts are estimates, but they're clearly wrong when you compare them to 2020 voter turnout.
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mona.lisa
1 year ago
National Election Pool now says there will be ~16.1 million votes in CA. If this is true, it would be ~154
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
University of Florida prediction of 154m looks strong.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
no, NBC (using NEP figures) and AP figures are contradictory for a lot of states. It isn't clear who has the accurate estimate.
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sshafique.10
1 year ago
Isnt this as simple as adding the remaining estimated votes to the current total on election atlas? NBC estimated remaining is very close to the Cali SOS site's remaining ballot estimate
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
National Election Pool now says there will be ~16.1 million votes in CA. If this is true, it would be ~154
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
turnout in cali might be down a lot more than other states though
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sneakySAN1C
1 year ago
Seems like everyone is using (state counted votes) / (counted %). This is reasonable, but it is very dependant on the reported counted % accuracy of big states like Cali. I've got methods that don't rely on Cali's counted %. Est: 156.8 - 157.5m
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
and you think its under 155?
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Justifax
1 year ago
For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
yeah I pointed to 99% count before. I think the decrease in voter turnout is the strongest evidence against 155+
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Justifax
1 year ago
For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
then it wouldn't bode well for 155+
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Justifax
1 year ago
For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
yes, if they were talking directly to the registrar that would mean the number on the site is an overestimate, no?
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Justifax
1 year ago
For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Election Lab already takes this figure into account.
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Justifax
1 year ago
Does anyone want to have a fact based conversation on https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status This is really the number that matters. It has increased from 16.2M to 16.4M (total counted + unprocessed) and there should be another update tonight. Any guesses what it will show?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It's an estimate, and it doesn't matter if it's accurate
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Justifax
1 year ago
Does anyone want to have a fact based conversation on https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status This is really the number that matters. It has increased from 16.2M to 16.4M (total counted + unprocessed) and there should be another update tonight. Any guesses what it will show?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
show your working
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sneakySAN1C
1 year ago
Seems like everyone is using (state counted votes) / (counted %). This is reasonable, but it is very dependant on the reported counted % accuracy of big states like Cali. I've got methods that don't rely on Cali's counted %. Est: 156.8 - 157.5m
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
then you should be happy the market returned closer to 50:50, which is all I aimed to achieve.
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Justifax
1 year ago
Sigh. Nate is chief analyst on the nyt needle team. Yes, that needle. The turnout numbers was their last estimate before they turned it off as Trump had won.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Use common sense, please. Turnout is down even in states reporting 99%. Yet somehow you think the total count will come 1 million shy of the historic turnout in 2020 at 158m?
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Justifax
1 year ago
Sigh. Nate is chief analyst on the nyt needle team. Yes, that needle. The turnout numbers was their last estimate before they turned it off as Trump had won.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nate Cohn's estimate was pre-election. It's irrelevant. Nate Silver's estimate of 156.5 relies on AP numbers, which are overestimating California by close to 2 million.
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nate Cohn estimate was pre-election and irrelevant. Nate Silver is based on AP figures, which overestimate cali by 2 million.
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Sardinianshepherd
1 year ago
i have 156-158 as estimate bracket, Nate silver and Nate cohen have similar range all above 155, thou cali estimates have been growing
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nate Cohns is based on the NY Times estimate *before* the election. You're a fool to be citing this. They haven't revised it.
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Justifax
1 year ago
I follow AP quite a bit. They tweak their individual state estimates every 15 minutes or so, but the total estimate has not budged from ~158M. AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453 The cali estimate may come down at a future point, but so far cali is approach it rather than the other way around.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
BREAKING: Florida University estimates 154 million. Checking the California numbers, it looks like the AP is overestimating Cali votes by 2 million. The media are relying on the AP numbers, meaning 155-160 is overpriced.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Looks like University of Florida is right. This will be 154m. The models estimating above 155 are relying on shaky turnout estimates. Turnout is lower.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
thanks, sounds good
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mona.lisa
1 year ago
thing that concerns me is that AP estimates, and the National Election Pool (NEP), have such wildly differing estimates on the votes remaining.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
How come you get beneath 155? Would be curious about explanation
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Justifax
1 year ago
AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
thing that concerns me is that AP estimates, and the National Election Pool (NEP), have such wildly differing estimates on the votes remaining.
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Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
UF election project says 154.5
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Sardinianshepherd
1 year ago
i have 156-158 as estimate bracket, Nate silver and Nate cohen have similar range all above 155, thou cali estimates have been growing
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
her odds have never exceeded 30%, so no she was not "projected to win" earlier today.
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DSPRIDES
1 year ago
Is she not projected to win anymore? I mean 18% of counting still remains and she is only 1.1% behind
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
You can find a crazy lawyer to say anything. This is retarded.
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REEEEEEEEEE
1 year ago
Election lawyer saying "More than 48K voters in AZ had their votes erased at MCTEC. None of the voters who had their votes "backed out" and "retabulated" can be sure that their votes were counted as originally cast (or even counted at all)." He suspects those votes were retabulated as Gallego votes. AZ GOP put out a notice saying their call centers are being flooded with people calling about canceled ballots - canceled ballots cannot be cured. https://x.com/Ryan_L_Heath/status/1854713842586001518
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lmaoooo she is coping
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REEEEEEEEEE
1 year ago
Lake is saying Pima is changing the number of votes left. https://x.com/KariLake/status/1855097527927771163
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
contrarians are usually wrong.
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Spartan37
1 year ago
I cannot even imagine being dumb enough to buy Gallego yes at 90% right now. Horrible, horrible odds given the outstanding ballots.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
you do realise GPT hallucinates?
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VinaCapital
1 year ago
As of November 9, 2024, the Associated Press has reported that approximately 160 million votes were cast in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. AP NEWS This figure aligns with the total voter turnout from the 2020 election, indicating a consistent level of electoral participation between the two election cycles.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
so what? AZ Republicans break heavily for Gallego because he is center right.
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rutherford
1 year ago
yall undervaluing these outstanding counties
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
you realise most AZ election officials are republicans? There is no cheating.
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Symbolic17
1 year ago
I'm still bullish because the cheating will be revealed this time.
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
no liquidity
1
Justifax
1 year ago
Tonnes to bet on in the https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges market
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
btw, where do you track the drop? I can only see presidential but not senate
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david689314
1 year ago
Pinal has dropped 19,563 #AZSen votes. Lake wins them 51/45 to net 1,204. Big yikes for Lake, she was 55+% before
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
no, check my wallet, I have $30k https://polygonscan.com/address/0x93b9114efd9d72720f0a67205208b332ae6ba48b
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TrumpGold
1 year ago
Kek, polywog & DunkBruntley showing massive losses, nearly 1m
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
its more sad that you have $0 and spend your entire day in polymarket comment section.
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TrumpGold
1 year ago
Kek, polywog & DunkBruntley showing massive losses, nearly 1m
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
where do you track the drops?
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Spartan37
1 year ago
I also want to see a strong Cochise drop for Lake. 65%+ on remaining ballots there. If she doesn't win Cochise by a lot, I'm out.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
First, they have a two page ballot. Second, 90% of Arizonans vote by mail, which means 3 million+ ballots need verification. And finally, by law voters can drop off early ballots at vote centers, and they must be verified like everything else.
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TrumpGold
1 year ago
How is Arizona such a shit state when it comes to counting? Must be full of seething liberals who took sick leave after the election, leaving the booths short staffed
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
gallego is a common sense democrat. Are you high?
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Spartan37
1 year ago
I just gotta say, screw all the independents that voted Trump but not Lake. Like they're literally the same person politically.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
POV: you don't understand Arizona politics
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Spartan37
1 year ago
I just gotta say, screw all the independents that voted Trump but not Lake. Like they're literally the same person politically.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Future dumps to be more narrow, not stronger for Lake. Disaster for Lake holders. https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1855067895224512953
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Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Aenews2 was right about Trump PV so I think he's pretty smart lmao.
0
JackBeTrader
1 year ago
that means there are about 124K Election Day drop offs out there to process. Those will go big for Lake you can see it in the turnout party splits
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
lmao I put around 40k USD on Kamala for PV and sold with an 8k loss. You are the broke one here.
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QuteAnon
1 year ago
No use conversing with poors. If they had anything worth saying, their account balance would show it. Just check the box next to "Holders" and carry on.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I lost money on the popular vote, which nearly everybody thought she would win. If it were so obvious Trump would win, his price would've been higher. An 8k loss isn't a big deal to me.
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mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lol future dumps are going to be MORE NARROW, not stronger for Lake: https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1855067895224512953
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lol future dumps are going to be MORE NARROW, not stronger for Lake: https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1855067895224512953
0
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
absolutely. pull all of your trump profits in!
1
Spartan37
1 year ago
Should I go in more into my Trump profits? Half in?
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
If I triggered you, I succeeded.
0
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The liberal Lake supporters keep pointing out my 8k loss. Fake news! I'm a business man. I used the bankruptcy laws of this country to do the right thing for my family, my business and the country. We don't need weak people like Kari Lake in the senate!
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
no u don't
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aenews2
1 year ago
Trading against MAGAts is like taking candy from a baby
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The liberal Lake supporters keep pointing out my 8k loss. Fake news! I'm a business man. I used the bankruptcy laws of this country to do the right thing for my family, my business and the country. We don't need weak people like Kari Lake in the senate!
1
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
wrong. I made a fortune. I'm a businessman. I have a company worth billions and billions. I only got a small loan of a million dollars.
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mona.lisa
1 year ago
BREAKING: Lake will lose. Remember, I was right about the general election popular vote. Thank me later!
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
BREAKING: Lake will lose. Remember, I was right about the general election popular vote. Thank me later!
0
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I think he needs to get to 7.5
0
TruthSearUm
1 year ago
Trump now up +6.3% if he gets to 7% I don't see how she loses.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
"its still a coin toss at the moment" https://x.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1855063454064713891
0
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
yeah, she refused to concede last election and said it was stolen. The majority of AZ republicans thought she was retarded for that.
1
CYQ
1 year ago
It's over Ruben Sandwich. You lost to a Crazy Women!
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
are you updating the sheet
0
mikenike360
1 year ago
Trump got more votes in Cali than he ever has before. I'm pretty sure it's gonna land 3-4% even with 45% of the cali vote left to count.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lake holders are coping rn.
0
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
You buffoon, multiple outlets have called it already for Gallego because the odds she can win are next to nothing.
0
CYQ
1 year ago
900 ,000 of the remaining 1000,000 votes are in two counties Maricopa and Pima where Gallego has a very high EV. Not only that but 700,000 of these votes are Early Votes where Gallego also has a high EV versus Lake
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Buy it then.
7
Ricardocunha
1 year ago
2-3% has an amazing risk/reward. Hard to see the needle getting below 2%. Kamala flopped huge, even in CA
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
"This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes"
0
PunishedCK
1 year ago
I hereby confirm what another person reported. Donald Trump will win the Popular vote by around 2.1. Proof: https://imgur.com/a/UozU91q
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
it will probably be Gallego but I'm just saying it's not impossible. Decision Desk says there's a 20% chance Lake wins. So... I think this market is overpriced.
1
Tetiana1
1 year ago
Can Kari still win this one?
Arizona Senate Election Winner
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Yes
1
Tetiana1
1 year ago
Can Kari still win this one?
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Archived at 11.59pm EST https://archive.is/uCMpt
0
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Final result YES 13%: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Final result YES 13%: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/
5
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
do you read the rules for markets? It's based only on CNN exit polls.
0
n/a
1 year ago
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
the CNN intern was buying at 5 cents
1
camheff
1 year ago
Wanna shout out whatever CNN intern caused this dip, buying dollars for 17 cents was very nice. Theyre absolutely not fake news.
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Inflation is down to 2% right now you idiot
0
CoconutsForTrump
1 year ago
I'm less exited about Trump winning than I am about Kamala losing. I didn't vote FOR Trump, but I voted AGAINST Kamala. Never again will I have to hear someone tell me "It's Comma-la"
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
mona.lisa
1 year ago
republicans are so close https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/results/house/
2
codingnoob88
1 year ago
????? what happened
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
mona.lisa
1 year ago
do you think thats actually possible?
0
codingnoob88
1 year ago
????? what happened
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
mona.lisa
1 year ago
lmao enjoy your tariffs and inflation!
0
CoconutsForTrump
1 year ago
I'm less exited about Trump winning than I am about Kamala losing. I didn't vote FOR Trump, but I voted AGAINST Kamala. Never again will I have to hear someone tell me "It's Comma-la"
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Nate Silver's latest analysis gives Harris 71.2% chance of winning popular vote
4
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Dude just sell while you’re in profit lol. You’ll never beat UMA voters. I’ve been there before.
1
MIkeVers
1 year ago
Then the truth can't be hidden anymore
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
If I was down 100k I’d cry too
2
Naturalnoob
1 year ago
© 2024 WorldLibertyFinancial, Inc. All Rights Reserved. *None of Donald J. Trump, any of his family members or any director, officer or employee of the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective affiliates is an officer, director, founder, or employee of World Liberty Financial or its affiliates. None of World Liberty Financial, Inc., its affiliates or the World Liberty Financial platform is owned, managed, or operated, by Donald J. Trump, any of his family members, the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective directors, officers, employees, affiliates, or principals. $WLFI tokens and use of the World Liberty Financial platform are offered and sold solely by World Liberty Financial or its affiliates.
What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
'broder' – polymarket is creating new technicalities to scam their users on
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
lmao, you can skip to the end of the doc and see it's Todd. You must be trolling though.
0
eb..
1 year ago
people are way too confident because of these articles. the documentary is only showing now. expect a twist. I'm still seeing big signals for adam
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I freaking told ya'll the Forbes article included details that were *not* in the leaks, confirming it was Todd.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
perhaps brambough doesn't have much of a career anyway
0
Justifax
1 year ago
It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
where? All I can see on Twitter are tweets referencing the Forbes article. Searched "sacrifice bitcoins"
0
tomaz
1 year ago
Buddy this has been on twitter for a couple hours. just search it up. you cant be that dumb.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
multiple journalists have the movie. the best summary of the movie is the Forbes article, which implicates Todd. It also discusses reasoning not seen in the leaked clips.
0
popobet
1 year ago
So someone has the movie, but only 2 short clips leak? Sus, tho I admit @Anon1565 activity is more convincing
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
he did, lol
0
tomaz
1 year ago
he did not.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
maybe he is... and stupid is controversial.
0
Justifax
1 year ago
The director can't be that stupid. I've 'sacrificed' crypto as well.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
This is in the Forbes article, but not in the leaked clips: "Hoback's theory relies on a chat log message written by Todd in which he claims to be the "world's leading expert on how to sacrifice your bitcoins ... I've done one such sacrifice and I did it by hand," Todd wrote. Hoback characterized the message as an "admission" by Todd that he destroyed his ability to access the 1.1 million bitcoin believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto, something Todd denies.
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Read the Forbes article carefully. The author clearly discusses parts of the film that are not included in the leaks. I.e. he has seen it (Cullen said he sent the film to reputable crypto journalists ahead of time). The takeaway: Cullen largely identifies Peter Todd https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/10/08/who-is-peter-todd-the-man-named-by-hbo-as-bitcoins-mystery-creator-satoshi-nakamoto/
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
because IDGAF about making 10% on Peter Todd. I'd rather lose the amount I spent on Adam.
0
topblaster
1 year ago
yeah why dont u sell ur adam back?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen also warned people to stay away from media articles to avoid "leaks" ahead of the release. Strong Peter Todd signal.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Billy Brambough has seen the movie and says it's Peter Todd in the Forbes article. Just lol.
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
you realise I lose if its Todd, you utter moron
2
Lukyyyyyyy
1 year ago
cope harder, it includes nothing not seen before, but I guess you gotta pump your alt's bags
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Just read Forbes article carefully. It includes quotes that are NOT seen in the leaked clips, strongly suggesting Cullens central thesis is that it is Todd. Cullen also gave the film to "reputable journalists" at major outlets. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/10/08/who-is-peter-todd-the-man-named-by-hbo-as-bitcoins-mystery-creator-satoshi-nakamoto/
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
why are people pretending the Forbes article is irrelevant? It includes multiple quotes from the film which were not seen in the available leaked videos. Cullen also said he gave the full film to journalists from reputable outlets. So it's a strong Todd signal.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The Forbes leak *clearly* includes quotes from the film which were *not* in the clips on Twitter. So I think it's pretty clear Cullen goes with Todd.
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It has additional quote from the movie, it's clear they have more.
1
Lukyyyyyyy
1 year ago
Forbes "article" nothing but a comment on the clip we all saw earlier today on Todd roleplaying as satoshi with adam behing him. paid articles....
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Adam crashing in light of the Forbes leak. LOL.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Forbes: Hoback characterized the message as an "admission" by Todd that he destroyed his ability to access the 1.1 million bitcoin believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto, something Todd denies.
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Forbes: Hoback's theory relies on a chat log message written by Todd in which he claims to be the "world's leading expert on how to sacrifice your bitcoins ... I've done one such sacrifice and I did it by hand," Todd wrote.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Forbes leaked the synopsis of movie: it's Todd https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/10/08/who-is-peter-todd-the-man-named-by-hbo-as-bitcoins-mystery-creator-satoshi-nakamoto/
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
then why are you selling your Adam? LMAO
0
informed
1 year ago
Adam obvious from the beginning. Feeling sorry for Multiple Others holders
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
where did Cullen say that lol
0
MaxShorter
1 year ago
BRB adding more funds to wallet, adam short is so easy. Director said its not him and everyone seem to be ignoring that
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The Adam pump is ridiculous IMO.
3
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
when has he ever taken profits 'for a few thousand'
0
8=====D
1 year ago
right.................gl arbing for a few thousand. let's all check back on your loss later
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
ok but can we stop pumping it. I wanna buy cheap.
0
informed
1 year ago
Adam, it was obvious at the beginning, it is obvious at the end
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Other is clearly insider traded
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Why not Adam
0
dasdeqweq
1 year ago
dai or szabo 1 of them defo, can't be adam
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
He’s gonna say Todd purely to create drama
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
“ we make a hell of a case in the film, and I think that who we land on is unexpected and is going to result in a fair amount of controversy... but it’s going to be up to the audience”.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lame meme coin ass
0
BibiNetty
1 year ago
$PETERTODD (8oAiUkC1gpr4Tuz3ZA7YUntWE47sop1fYmGWo4Zrpump) gonna blow tf up once this doco starts fellas... better return than can ever be offered here..
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Yeah but they’re all denying it’s them.
1
Justifax
1 year ago
I mean, Adam did say it wasn't him. Lol
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I don’t mean a photo of the film. If you attended a screening, you’ll have a screenshot of an email with the details. That would prove it.
0
Skippy-downunder
1 year ago
I screen tested this on behalf of Sircuit, contracted through HBO. The documentary filmmaker goes through an long list of possibilities and doesn't settle on anyone in partiuclar. However says it is most likely Zsabo in closing statements. I think 'other/multiple' wins technically, because it's not conclusive, but if there is ever gonna be a disputed market on Polymarket, it's this one. Might as well have a punt on the😄 mayhem that awaits
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen says well respected journalists were given the film, and to stay offline to avoid leaks. So… who were they? https://x.com/cullenhoback/status/1843396714868416597?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Tweet evidence of your screen test and I’ll buy szabo 😂
0
Skippy-downunder
1 year ago
I screen tested this on behalf of Sircuit, contracted through HBO. The documentary filmmaker goes through an long list of possibilities and doesn't settle on anyone in partiuclar. However says it is most likely Zsabo in closing statements. I think 'other/multiple' wins technically, because it's not conclusive, but if there is ever gonna be a disputed market on Polymarket, it's this one. Might as well have a punt on the😄 mayhem that awaits
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen: “I can confirm, we land on a specific name” https://x.com/cullenhoback/status/1842286135319691745?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA
3
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen said he settled on ONE name.
1
Skippy-downunder
1 year ago
I screen tested this on behalf of Sircuit, contracted through HBO. The documentary filmmaker goes through an long list of possibilities and doesn't settle on anyone in partiuclar. However says it is most likely Zsabo in closing statements. I think 'other/multiple' wins technically, because it's not conclusive, but if there is ever gonna be a disputed market on Polymarket, it's this one. Might as well have a punt on the😄 mayhem that awaits
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen said he names a guy
0
MeVotedTwice
1 year ago
you know if they just say at the end that they really dont know if other resolves to Yes or NO?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It doesn’t matter who Satoshi really is. It matters who CULLEN thinks is satoshi.
0
President-Elrond-Da-2nd
1 year ago
how stupid people are. it's literally Dorian Nakamoto. they have the same last name! and he obviously just changed his first name to satoshi thinking that would be enough. he also looks japanese which i always thought satoshi was
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Cullen said he settled on ONE name, not multiple.
0
MeVotedTwice
1 year ago
I don't understand how other/multiple is at 90? If they end without naming the persorn or group of people, wouldn't other resolve to NO along with every other market or is that a yes even if they don't name anyone?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The anon new whale wallets are bullish on Todd
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
This clip is also bullish for Todd: https://x.com/theblockcitizen/status/1843732566261846387?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Can someone say?
0
informed
1 year ago
guess
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
That’s retarded. The director confronts the guy. He’s not confronting either of them.
1
Mallardshead
1 year ago
🤣 watching all these people throw money at Adam "I love fame" Back and Nick "goldbug" Szabo. It can only be Wei Dei or Paul la Roux. The ghost or the crime boss. That's it.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Some say that Adam would’ve never made the mistakes observed in BTC code
0
Mallardshead
1 year ago
the code wasn't ahead of its time and had a ton of mistakes, like you'd expect from a single set of eyes
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
High iq post
2
HaterzLoserz
1 year ago
Gavin Andresen has stated that he knows who Satoshi is and has seen hard evidence, but has signed NDAs and would never tell regardless. Interesting that he used to work for Adam Back over at Blockstream. I dont know of many Cypherpunk OGs who go around signing NDA with randomers claiming to be Satoshi. However, the doc doesnt need to reach any reasonable conclusions, they can pick what evidence they want to create the best story they can, which is their goal. If its other after all the new account activity there in the last couple days, this site is turning into a clown fest as it gets more mainstream attention lol
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Roux is in jail. How would the director have confronted him lmao.
0
Mallardshead
1 year ago
It’s been obvious for years who Satoshi is and racial bias won’t let people see the evidence—which isn’t a surprise in this community. It’s the only man that nobody has ever found a single verifiable photograph of ever. Including the unverified photo above. The ghost. It’s Wei Dei. He would’ve failed at a project like bitcoin before being able to create its nuance, and that was b-money, which Wei never brought to life. The giveaway was a 2010 chat when he claimed to have never heard of b-money and that he’d “look into it”. Right, and how many NBA players don’t know who Michael Jordan is? None. B-money was unavoidable to cypherpunks at that time. Satoshi never lied about anything. This was his only lie. Why? Or should I say, Wei? So join the smart money and bet Dai. The only other person it could be conceivably be is Paul La Roux. HBO isn’t making a documentary without a ghost or a crime boss. The rest of the has-beens you saw playacting Satoshi until asked, and pretending to be people with anything of value to say in the movie are fluff, about to make fools of themselves. Bet accordingly. A shot of Dai, and a pinch of Roux.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
How can it be wei when the director said he confronts the guy?
0
Mallardshead
1 year ago
It’s been obvious for years who Satoshi is and racial bias won’t let people see the evidence—which isn’t a surprise in this community. It’s the only man that nobody has ever found a single verifiable photograph of ever. Including the unverified photo above. The ghost. It’s Wei Dei. He would’ve failed at a project like bitcoin before being able to create its nuance, and that was b-money, which Wei never brought to life. The giveaway was a 2010 chat when he claimed to have never heard of b-money and that he’d “look into it”. Right, and how many NBA players don’t know who Michael Jordan is? None. B-money was unavoidable to cypherpunks at that time. Satoshi never lied about anything. This was his only lie. Why? Or should I say, Wei? So join the smart money and bet Dai. The only other person it could be conceivably be is Paul La Roux. HBO isn’t making a documentary without a ghost or a crime boss. The rest of the has-beens you saw playacting Satoshi until asked, and pretending to be people with anything of value to say in the movie are fluff, about to make fools of themselves. Bet accordingly. A shot of Dai, and a pinch of Roux.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
it doesn't matter in this context, because the director says he settles on ONE name. That's what we are betting on.
0
tomaz
1 year ago
Satoshi was a group of cryptophunks from Cali.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
9pm EST
1
Panzwalizka
1 year ago
wen HBO?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
trades not working again
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
other seems plausible given the newbie insider trading wallets
0
Polly Styrene
1 year ago
If you can't trade anyway, read why Adam Back or Other are they only plausible options: https://peakd.com/satoshi/@edb/will-money-electric-reveal-who-satoshi-nakamoto-is
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
comment when back pls
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Same
0
averageuser
1 year ago
Is it just me or is polymarket down rn? I can't place order and cancel order.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
After checking the ‘other’ holders, this looks insider traded
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
why are people still holding Paul LE roux. The director said he confronted "satoshi". Paul is in jail.
0
Maximemeliano
1 year ago
Guys, I watch the movie, and I was shocked. When the director asked Adam Back for the 69th time if he was Satoshi, he smirked mischievously, and that became the main proof
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The question isn’t “who is Satoshi” but rather “who will the documentary name as Satoshi?” So even if Nick Szabo is Satoshi a bet for him will lose if the documentary wrongly says it’s someone else.
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
there is no HBO credit list that lists Nick Szabo.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Very likely it's Nick Szabo, he is in the HBO's documentary credit list but didn't appear in the trailer. So obviously they will point on him. If he is the real Satoshi or not we will probably never know.Tho many things point on him, he designed bitgold 1 year before bitcoin and was looking for a developer to help him then deleted that blog post. Then he had a Freudian slip in Tim Ferris's podcast.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
where was the blog post? What site?
1
n/a
1 year ago
deleted that blog post. Then he had a Freudian slip in Tim Ferris's podcast.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
where is the doco credit list?
1
n/a
1 year ago
Very likely it's Nick Szabo, he is in the HBO's documentary credit list but didn't appear in the trailer. So obviously they will point on him. If he is the real Satoshi or not we will probably never know.Tho many things point on him, he designed bitgold 1 year before bitcoin and was looking for a developer to help him then
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Watch the trailer. Adam is in about 10 different scenes and interviews. Would they show his face in the trailer? Is this consistent with the directors claim they "confront" Satoshi and got a "telling" reaction?
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
lol the de-encrypted message on the first transaction to Hal Finney is signed by Paul Le Roux.
0
doriannakamoto
1 year ago
Probability of having the given name “Satoshi” = 1 / 1,000 = 0.001 - Probability of having the surname “Nakamoto” = 1 / 50,000 = 0.00002 -Probability of being a Japanese in the US = 0.00355 - Probability of living extremely close to Hal Finney Probability = 1 / 100,000 = 0.00001 - Probability of being highly intelligent = 0.02 - Probability of being in the right age group = 0.2. 0.00000002 * 0.00355 = 7.1 × 10^-11/7.1 × 10^-11 * 0.00001 = 7.1 × 10^-16/ 7.1 × 10^-16 * 0.02 = 1.42 × 10^-17/ 1.42 × 10^-17 * 0.2 = 2.84 × 10^-18 The probability of Dorian Nakamoto coincidentally fitting the profile of Satoshi Nakamoto is extraordinarily small — about 2.84 in 1 quintillion, or 0.000000000284%. He lied about his skills & past. Also the documentary dude said its non of those in the list… dorian wasn’t in that list. No brainer.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
tweet deleted
0
doriannakamoto
1 year ago
Probability of having the given name “Satoshi” = 1 / 1,000 = 0.001 - Probability of having the surname “Nakamoto” = 1 / 50,000 = 0.00002 -Probability of being a Japanese in the US = 0.00355 - Probability of living extremely close to Hal Finney Probability = 1 / 100,000 = 0.00001 - Probability of being highly intelligent = 0.02 - Probability of being in the right age group = 0.2. 0.00000002 * 0.00355 = 7.1 × 10^-11/7.1 × 10^-11 * 0.00001 = 7.1 × 10^-16/ 7.1 × 10^-16 * 0.02 = 1.42 × 10^-17/ 1.42 × 10^-17 * 0.2 = 2.84 × 10^-18 The probability of Dorian Nakamoto coincidentally fitting the profile of Satoshi Nakamoto is extraordinarily small — about 2.84 in 1 quintillion, or 0.000000000284%. He lied about his skills & past. Also the documentary dude said its non of those in the list… dorian wasn’t in that list. No brainer.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
HBO is gonna end it with “we are all Satoshi”
4
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
based on what? You think it's Elon Musk, who isn't smart enough and doesn't have the skills to create bitcoin
1
n/a
1 year ago
Inb4 It's Craight Wright
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
bro I only lost 145 I dont actually care, just memeing. You've got anger problems.
0
dancer
1 year ago
cry harder dumbfuck
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
looks like people are not happy about the UMA situation: https://www.trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
hasn't there been *one* case where PolyMarket overturned the UMA result? In reality, it's probably just a normal delay.
0
fhantombets
1 year ago
It's been 20 minutes and zero word from polymarket, I don't like this at all
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
waiting for word form Q
0
mona.lisa
1 year ago
President Trump is about to burst into the headquarters at UMA and arrest the globalist pedophiles who rigged this result!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
President Trump is about to burst into the headquarters at UMA and arrest the globalist pedophiles who rigged this result!
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
why would you buy 70k shares at 100cents in an extremely contentious disputed market?
3
fhantombets
1 year ago
It's been 20 minutes and zero word from polymarket, I don't like this at all
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
UMA "decentralised" protocol determined the outcome, but one voter overpowers them all: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Ok, thanks for clarifying
0
ANudeEgg
1 year ago
@mona.lisa Not unusual at all. Resolution on PolyMarket is always delayed by about an hour after UMA.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
PolyMarket must resolve this 50/50 or as a yes. Far too contentious. Multiple media outlets were clear about the invasion. Outrageous that Kevin Chan at UMA gets to determine the outcome, the ONLY time this year where the popular vote != total votes for the final resolution https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Looks like a future PR nightmare for PolyMarket with that UMA share distribution. Should revert 50/50.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA Kevin chan fixed the outcome
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Kevin Scam
4
Secret14thKey
1 year ago
Kevin Chan fan club 👇
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Kevin Chan talking about UMA protocol 'resolving disputes' (he means himself and a few whales): https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
make your thoughts heard about the UMA system lol
2
mona.lisa
1 year ago
https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
he means whales on UMA, like Kevin Chan, who basically chooses the outcome himself.
0
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Can you help me understand this one? The yes side had more whales.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I only just learned Kevin Chan owns 32% of the UMA votes. I don't think I'll take PolyMarket seriously now.
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
you are free to report him to the SEC (or other relevant authorities) if you think there's something here.
2
PolyRig-Fried
1 year ago
@Chad and the Yes holders: if you need a name and a face, Kevin Chan of UMA voted NO with 32.5% of all shares. I wonder if this constitutes fraud in the US, since he's gaining financial incentive from voting on false outcomes. Interestingly, Pablo Maldonado of UMA voted No, but he has only has 3.3% of all shares. Source: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
does this display the revealed votes ahead of the UMA website?
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 year ago
@Chad and the Yes holders: if you need a name and a face, Kevin Chan of UMA voted NO with 32.5% of all shares. I wonder if this constitutes fraud in the US, since he's gaining financial incentive from voting on false outcomes. Interestingly, Pablo Maldonado of UMA voted No, but he has only has 3.3% of all shares. Source: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Can token holders re-commit to a different side before revealing?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Yup, I regret not selling when I was up $500
0
dancer
1 year ago
Imagine not selling for 70 because you thought this wasn't rigged. PSYCHOS!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Taylor Lorenz at WaPo will probably write an article about this... when the 'yes' Karens (good people!) contact her about it!
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
do token holders choose when to reveal addresses? Can YES voters delay intentionally to send the price down and buy up?
1
Phoenix777
1 year ago
47,6% of token holder haven't voted yet YES not over/under, the voting is still in process
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
wouldn't that go 50/50
0
PokerBrat
1 year ago
Not over yet. It could fail to reach consensus which could be catastrophic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Chad still buying yes is insane… unless he has an enormous UMA share
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Your $1 will become $2!
3
Carlossss
1 year ago
if a whale with 2 or 3 million enters, can make a lot of money.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Is there any possibility this can still resolve yes?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It’s determined by UMA holders, not Polymarket )
1
0x6b07D80f00a65bE25C8FF1bA57063e5e09D85F59-1722856566954
1 year ago
Well obviously the answer is Yes based on news reports. But if Polymarket wants to keep both sides happy they may just resolve to 50-50
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
WOW! Huge whales are announcing they’re changing Uma votes to yes!! Get in quick!
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The elites (yes buyers) are in command!
0
Phoenix777
1 year ago
NO guys selling and YES guys buying--- the world order is stabile again
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
UMA is destroying PolyMarket! We must make Polymarket GREAT again!
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Car, can you please tip me $100?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
honestly, I found the reporting was so obvious it had to resolve yes. But whales can just choose based on self interest.
3
1mperator17
1 year ago
probably shouldnt buy into a disputed market
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I would honestly prefer if Polymarket abolished the UMA system, and just had a team of staff deciding.
9
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Now up to 25% yes on UMA. Whales incoming. It's over for the nos.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
and yet yes is pumping.
0
aldynspeedruns
1 year ago
GUYS NOW THAT IM ON THE NO SIDE, THAT MEANS IT'S GOING TO PUMP, YES SIDE YOU'RE SAVED IT'S GOING TO THE MOON
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
No, there are many hours of UMA revealing votes.
0
DeucePapi
1 year ago
Is this over in ~8 min?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Fear not, my faithful... nothing can stop the return of 'yes'.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
because they want to cause nervous breakdowns
3
FamilyCapital
1 year ago
what is the logic behind of having delay on reveal of votes rsult. why not to do that at the same time?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
That would only be the case if UMA reveals votes in a representative fashion. But doesn't UMA reveal it by addresses, meaning huge whales sway things?
1
DFK
1 year ago
people asking if Yes still stands a chance: statistically in an evenly distributed voting right system, the answer would be no. Here Yes hangs on to the possibility (remote?) that a few heavyweight would vote against consensus. What we already have in hands is an idea of the consensus, statistically significant (imagine early results coming like that in the presidential election for example: the outcome would be crystal clear).
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I am hearing that huge whales are set to vote yes, and the no's will be left holding empty bags.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Maybe, but assuming a significant fraction of the 87% 'no' is due to whales, you wouldn't expect the votes revealed are a representative sample?
0
DFK
1 year ago
well it's the same thing as elections. Early results tell you a lot. Unless of course reveal is "organized". Which I don't think it is, despite all the noise. So it tells us 90% of UMA voters think it's No. Even if voting rights are unevenly distributed, it tells us about consensus, meaning it's not looking good for yes. Mathematically if voting rights were evenly distributed it would be statistically almost over for Yes, but if the whale stories are true, I guess Yes still stands a chance, but it is a shot in the dark (hanging on the remote decision of a few influent people against consensus). There you go.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
given only 9% of votes are revealed, it could still win if enough whales are voting yes.
0
BaruchAsulin
1 year ago
Dose yes stand a chance ?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Only 9.4% of the votes are even revealed, who cares about the score.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
can somebody pls confirm: can this be disputed again?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Yes, it's retarded.
2
DFK
1 year ago
so basically, what everybody seems to agree upon, is that it can be 90% going one way, and boom just like that it could reverse because 1 or 2 people have more voting rights than everybody else put together? Am I getting this right?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Riggers, time to buy yes on the cheap, and flip the score. MAKE POLYMARKET GREAT AGAIN.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
it's leaning no because of one giant whale. I'll wait.
2
mr.ozi
1 year ago
This is going strongly in the direction of No after 7% of votes and 17% voters revealed their votes, with 83% siding with No. And the Yes is still going strong on buying more shares. This is a fascinating case for a psychology paper.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
they have to establish control of Lebanese territory to make said buffer zone.
1
🤺JustPunched
1 year ago
Never understood this one. A buffer zone would imply no control by either side.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I'm not panicking over $135, my guy.
1
Phoenix777
1 year ago
Haha panic bullshitt…
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
It has to go 'yes'. Israel explicitly spoke of forming a buffer zone out of Lebanese territory.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Mummy, do you like bunnies?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Mama, do you like bunnies?
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Israel openly discussed creating a 'buffer zone' out of Lebanese territory. That is absolutely 'intended to establish control' of Lebanon's territory.
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
they're talking about creating a buffer zone out of Lebanons territory. So yes.
2
Anon5215
1 year ago
I don't disagree that they commenced a military offensive on the night of September 30, but is it truly intended to establish control over any portion of the country? It sounds to me that they are going in to knock out certain infrastructures as opposed to establish control. Please prove me wrong if you have evidence
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
why does the second proposed outcome say 'no', wasn't it 'yes' originally?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
3 days final review 😂
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
none of us care
0
duckduck
1 year ago
Yes buyers stressing xD
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
it already did
1
Ferguson,Turd
1 year ago
Need this to go to 40 cents please so i can hit my risk limit please and ty
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
thanks, what happens if it goes p4? I don't know what 'early request' means
0
shouldbealright
1 year ago
Looks like majority is still P4, but 18.75% voting for P2 (Yes). P1 (No) still only has 0.1%
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Where can we see that?
0
shouldbealright
1 year ago
Looks like majority is still P4, but 18.75% voting for P2 (Yes). P1 (No) still only has 0.1%
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
this debate didn't matter. he won over nobody
0
SwiftiesForTrump
1 year ago
Vance destroyed him I fear. He won over a lot of people today
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Vance won but he didn't win anybody over. This debate didn't matter.
0
SwiftiesForTrump
1 year ago
Vance destroyed him I fear. He won over a lot of people today
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
I am so tired of Drumpf ruining America.
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The "vibes" are with Vance, but he lost major aura for refusing to say if Trump lost the election.
1
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Damn I was gonna do $100 at 2 cents, would’ve been a nice 5k. Just shows, don’t be a pussy.
1
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Just wait for it to be resolved completely and you can claim
1
Barfly
1 year ago
So how does one cash out? This is my first win...
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Lmao I bet right. I should've done more.
2
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The future is female!
0
gun
1 year ago
somehow most female founders is are frauds
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Judge sentences her to 10 years prison and compulsory dental work.
4
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Breaking: Joe Biden to award Caroline the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
2
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
“I’ve seen a lot of beautiful women in 30 years. I’ve never seen one quite like Ms. Ellison,” the judge said.
3
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
breaking: judge wants to sleep with Caroline, gives her 0 jail time.
3
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
HE IS GLAZING HER.
0
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The judge says that he can’t remember a time when Ellison was even slightly inconsistent during her testimony.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The judge says that he can’t remember a time when Ellison was even slightly inconsistent during her testimony.
1
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
The prosecutor argued that Ellison deserves “a sentence substantially below the guidelines.”
1
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
judge should give a Stanford math graduate 110 years for saying "the human brain is bad at understanding big numbers"
2
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
she went to Stanford, too
1
0xc26E37C84509c72b58171bEc9286fa83c73f5366-1719543164274
1 year ago
"The human brain is truly bad at understanding big numbers" - Caroline Ellison (who has a degree in mathmatics) LOL
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
leniency could mean probation
0
DeucePapi
1 year ago
She said "lenient sentence"..
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Assistant US Attorney Danielle Sassoon is addressing the court now. She talks about Ellison deserving “leniency” right off the bat.
0
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Prosecutors remarks: you're going to jail, Quasimodo!
3
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
she's an inspiration.
3
Eridpnc
1 year ago
Who is Caroline Ellison? Why is everyone talking about her here?
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
live updates: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-09-24/caroline-ellison-sentencing
0
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-09-24/caroline-ellison-sentencing
0
0xBama
1 year ago
where are you watching it
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Judge Kaplan has started the hearing by asking “what is to be done about restitution.”
0
What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Agree. Although I guess it’s a town hall, not a rally.
0
JackBauerPowerHour
1 year ago
He’s obsessed with the McDonald’s thing right now and how the media “isn’t covering it” I bet his a.d.d. brain brings it up again today
Caroline Ellison prison time?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
~7 hours until sentencing. 3pm EDT.
1
2024 September hottest on record?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Very unlikely to happen, September 2023 was extreme.
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
mona.lisa
1 year ago
Read rules. 12pm EST. So around 20 hours.
0
090x
1 year ago
when counting start?