Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

finally no is at a fair value

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

3 months ago

BREAKING: Trump halts ALL military aid to ukraine

2

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

would very likely trigger an uma mess in the tartus market too, this is a straight upgrade for no aa far as im concerned

0

emaminek

3 months ago

FYI, as per the rules a single garrison or small detachment of the Russian armed forces in syria would resolve this market to no. That's all it takes

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

the air force pilots there are members of the russian armed forces

0

emaminek

3 months ago

FYI, as per the rules a single garrison or small detachment of the Russian armed forces in syria would resolve this market to no. That's all it takes

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

you just proved what I said. "No conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria" means even a single Russian armed forces unit active in syria will resolve this to no. Who said anything about Wagner?

0

emaminek

3 months ago

FYI, as per the rules a single garrison or small detachment of the Russian armed forces in syria would resolve this market to no. That's all it takes

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

emaminek

3 months ago

the resolution of this bet depends on whether a deal is reached, not who occupies the land by resolution date. So I'd say yes

1

bawabawa

3 months ago

Am I correct that in case of Russia regaining the territory through military action, it will be considered as "No"?

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

emaminek

3 months ago

it's ongoing by definition until the resolution date

0

autosre

3 months ago

is this still ongoing or what???

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

3 months ago

this market will only resolve to yes if ALL Russian units withdraw from ALL of syria (not just tartus like this market), for the same resolution date and somehow no is cheaper there. HUGE market inefficiency: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria?tid=1740497554457

2

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

that's very bullish news for the "Russia withdraws from syria by 2067" market!

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

It’s official: Putin lost Syria According to Al-Hal, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said that all contracts with Russia will not be renewed, and Syria will not be subordinated to any regional axis. https://x.com/zriboua/status/1891276335584088427

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

FYI, as per the rules a single garrison or small detachment of the Russian armed forces in syria would resolve this market to no. That's all it takes

1

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

3 months ago

this market literally has the same odds as russia withdrawing from tartus only by the same resolution date, so it is naturally +EV. Withdrawing ALL conventional combat units a month from now is even just logistically speaking very unlikely, that's not even considering the fact Russian talks with Damascus on retaining the bases are proceeding just fine and the bases remain one of the most important geopolitical assets of the Kremlin ever

0

Ye banned on X in February?

emaminek

3 months ago

if the account was proven to be sold, wouldn't that get him banned? Or is it not against X's TOS?

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

3 months ago

you really are an average american. your country was literally built by “foreigners”

1

emaminek

3 months ago

Europe must unite against American, Russian and Chinese imperialism. Trump proved America is not our ally but a mere opportunistic overlord

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

3 months ago

Europe must unite against American, Russian and Chinese imperialism. Trump proved America is not our ally but a mere opportunistic overlord

2

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

3 months ago

he's handing over all of Europe to Russian influence just for a gamble on Taiwan. And all this bullshit about saving taxpayer money too when aid to Israel is as big as ever. I am not a democrat in the slightest but Biden was so much better than trump currently

1

emaminek

4 months ago

trump's arrogance is gonna tear the west apart if it materializes. Ukraine is just the first step

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

3 months ago

says the guy with a negative pnl?

0

checkthesystem

3 months ago

"yes" believers, try harder. 50/50 stakes are my goal to go "all in". It's so obvious that there is no room to have any compromise between those two sides. Its even not getting closer

Which coalition will form the next German government?

emaminek

3 months ago

union/spd coalition is the only one that makes sense

2

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

3 months ago

Grenell insisted that there had been 'no substantive conversation' between him and Romanian foreign minister Emil Hurezeanu at the Munich Security Conference - Daily Mail

0

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

3 months ago

trump isn't gonna do shit for a literal court case in a foreign country. watch no go back to the mid 80s in a matter of hours/days

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

trump's arrogance is gonna tear the west apart if it materializes. Ukraine is just the first step

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

only thing taking it up the ass here is your pnl lol

1

emaminek

4 months ago

this market comes down to whether trump is willing to get on his knees and suck Russian cock or not

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

this market comes down to whether trump is willing to get on his knees and suck Russian cock or not

3

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

mfs have one pump and dump and say it's over before negotiations even start

0

cutiepie

4 months ago

yeah its over

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

I dont think you realize he has almost 4x your pnl but sure

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 Same price but you have until year's end...

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

emaminek

4 months ago

IF current talks go through, there MIGHT be a start of negotiations soon. IF common ground is found, a ceasefire could start to be contemplated. IF a ceasefire is reached in a timely manner, russia and ukraine are going to get closer to peace. IF peace is reached, martial law will likely be lifted. IF elections are held in the timeframe, Zelenskyy MIGHT be ousted. There is no other possible path to Zelensky out other than this or him dying. He isn't gonna be ousted as long as martial law goes on and there is no way ukraine would lift martial law in wartime conditions, even with a ceasefire going on. Very very uncertain for the markets to price an almost 30% chance on YES. Free money for NO at current prices

2

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

emaminek

4 months ago

time to buy no again

3

Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

BREAKING 🔴 Israel Army Radio: The Egyptian Defense Minister ordered military brigades in the Sinai and Rafah regions to maintain the highest level of readiness for war.

0

Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?

emaminek

4 months ago

anything other than afd is simply not happening. Maybe SPD at best

1

Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?

emaminek

4 months ago

the strategy he proposes is interesting but it's clear he is doing it to try and influence a better exit for his losing bet

0

ImHereForTheRewards

4 months ago

Safe bet: CDU 1st OR 2nd at 98 in respective markets

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

4 months ago

it's over yes bros

0

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

emaminek

4 months ago

yes, a very reliable source with 1 like and 1 retweet

0

IntelGeoPol

4 months ago

Leaked Trump "deal making" document suggest Ukraine recognizes Russian jurisdiction over territories under Russian occupation https://x.com/IntelGeoPol/status/1888619510564860024

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

emaminek

4 months ago

yes is due for a correction, "NO" on the "Russia abandons naval base by July" market has spiked to the mid 70s

0

Which coalition will form the next German government?

emaminek

4 months ago

not chance of a government, but chance of majority. Huge difference

0

Williwonka

4 months ago

The famous German newspaper "Der Spiegel" rates the chance of a government formed by CDU and greens as "rather high"

Which coalition will form the next German government?

emaminek

4 months ago

cdu + greens is not happening, the greens are too on the left for Merz and immigration is a key issue where the spd is much much more preferable. either way its not even sure if an alliance with the greens would give the coalition a majority. The only way the greens are realistically forming a coalition is in a 3 way coalition, which by itself is already very very uncertain. Free money

3

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

most dumbass resolution in a while

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

based on what though? lol, I keep hearing this and that and seeing no go down but nothing factual is happening besides a few declarations from the hts defense minister at best+

0

denizz

4 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

nothing happened?

2

denizz

4 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

diamond hands on Russia NO until either credible news come out or the retarded pricing stops

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

I can't even find anything much about recent speculations. But I see some whales and otherwise smart money selling at a loss either way

1

emaminek

4 months ago

what's the news on russia?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

denizz sold at a loss, that's worrying me. But there literally is not even a rumor circling about anything on russia. And if it was something substantial, all the other markets would've reacted too

1

emaminek

4 months ago

either putin himself just made a polymarket account or this doesn't make any sense because there are no news anywhere about anything between russia and syria, all the other russia-syria markets haven't even reacted

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

either putin himself just made a polymarket account or this doesn't make any sense because there are no news anywhere about anything between russia and syria, all the other russia-syria markets haven't even reacted

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

4 months ago

what's the news on russia?

2

Which coalition will form the next German government?

emaminek

4 months ago

np

1

focused

4 months ago

thanks for filling

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

emaminek

4 months ago

trump is more of a pragmatist than the biden administration which cared more about the human rights/personal freedoms aspect (at least on paper). He said Kim Jong un is a "smart guy" so I don't see why the USA couldn't recognize HTS as legitimate to enable better diplomatic relations with syria

1

North Korea x South Korea military clash by...?

emaminek

4 months ago

not necessarily, a military clash doesn't always mean a war starting

0

Setzer

4 months ago

If it happens the world ends...and your money will worth nothing

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

emaminek

4 months ago

Peace or no peace is probably the biggest influence to the resolution of this market

0

emaminek

5 months ago

an eventual peace deal/ceasefire overly favorable to russia could very well trigger another maidan, but Zelensky knows it very well. It really depends on how the war goes

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

4 months ago

how do you think the market would ever end if it was forever lmao

1

echoiokunance

4 months ago

forever or for a while?

X allowed to operate in China before May?

emaminek

4 months ago

not saying you're wrong, but put your money where your mouth's at

2

MidasHand

4 months ago

This is totally impossible , free money for "NO"

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

4 months ago

POA buy some yes on trump and make some money for the effort you spend entertaining everyone in the comments, thank me later for the free money

3

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

4 months ago

please fill my sell orders at 99.8c I need liquidity :)

0

Will Biden finish his term?

emaminek

4 months ago

I dont see your no

0

JesseAndhe

5 months ago

some experts claim he's going to step down in favour of letting a woman have a taste of the presidency on sunday

Will Biden finish his term?

emaminek

4 months ago

probably just whales freeing up some cash

4

Trumputin

4 months ago

Just one day left. Why are people selling at 98?

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

4 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/trumps-promise-end-ukraine-war-day-meets-harsh-realities-rcna188167

0

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

emaminek

4 months ago

trump jr and jd vance currently on a spaceship to visit the martian pM

2

LucyCross

4 months ago

Will Trump use military force to take Mars in 2025?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

emaminek

5 months ago

an eventual peace deal/ceasefire overly favorable to russia could very well trigger another maidan, but Zelensky knows it very well. It really depends on how the war goes

2

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

yes going down without any relevant new updates to the case so yes value is +EV right now

1

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

5 months ago

no is undervalued, tate can't legally leave Romania and it's not changing anytime soon. Before being sent to the uk for trials he still has to resolve his trial in Romania which will end by the earliest in the end of 2025

1

What will Trump say during inauguration speech?

emaminek

5 months ago

the only real chance of crypto/bitcoin being featured in the speech is if trump brings up his plan to create a national bitcoin reserve

0

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

pretty much all of those losses were on the elections. Was a dumbass choice to put so much on a tossup but he's been doing safe bets ever since pretty much

0

emaminek

5 months ago

all the whales on no rn should be enough on its own to determine yes is retarded at 15c

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

as for car, whether he may or may not bet to hold he bought at this price point and still hasn't sold. He may be trying to pump the price back up but he hasn't sold which on itself is good enough

1

emaminek

5 months ago

all the whales on no rn should be enough on its own to determine yes is retarded at 15c

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

erasmus is not a dumbass, he just got unlucky on a few big bets. We've also got denizz, big tromboner and almost every top holder besides the whales still has a good pnl

2

emaminek

5 months ago

all the whales on no rn should be enough on its own to determine yes is retarded at 15c

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

all the whales on no rn should be enough on its own to determine yes is retarded at 15c

8

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

59% of the people want him arrested, only 37% said arresting him would be "excessive" according to a national barometer survey poll of last week

2

Sam040404004

5 months ago

His approval rate is over 40% according to the recent poll. Can't be impeached.

Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?

emaminek

5 months ago

I still remember when some people willfully paid 6c per share for the Ukraine war ending in 2 days with no foresight just because a bald guy on twitter said so

1

emaminek

5 months ago

one article about some councillors resigning just bumped yes to 88c buy price from like 6c, talk about overreacting markets

Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?

emaminek

5 months ago

12 councillors too lol. What a joke. Could drop no by maybe 2 cents at best

0

emaminek

5 months ago

one article about some councillors resigning just bumped yes to 88c buy price from like 6c, talk about overreacting markets

Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?

emaminek

5 months ago

one article about some councillors resigning just bumped yes to 88c buy price from like 6c, talk about overreacting markets

1

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

you know the odds are fucked up when you have to write two paragraphs to make up a scenario in which maybe it would work

2

ster

5 months ago

Here's how Alice Weidel could win: The AfD siphons off 5% of CDU/CSU voters, leveraging Weidel's strong performance in a TV debate to appeal to conservative audiences. Coalition talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD/Greens collapse, torn apart by irreconcilable differences on migration and social policies. Friedrich Merz resigns, and under new leadership - driven by Carsten Linnemann, Alexander Dobrindt, Michael Kretschmer, or Jens Spahn - the CDU/CSU shifts its stance for programmatic or power-political reasons and tolerates an AfD-led government. It's just happening in Austria.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

5 months ago

that was like 3 weeks ago lol

1

emaminek

5 months ago

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/isw-reports-on-timeline-for-russia-s-withdrawal-1735018698.html

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

5 months ago

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/isw-reports-on-timeline-for-russia-s-withdrawal-1735018698.html

1

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

doesn't matter, she needs a coalition to even just have a chance of becoming chancellor

4

Mo4

5 months ago

Populist AfD Leader Alice Weidel Surges to Top of German Chancellor Polls Ahead of February Elections https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/12/22/populist-afd-leader-alice-weidel-surges-to-top-of-german-chancellor-polls-ahead-of-february-elections/

Will US leave NATO by June 30?

emaminek

5 months ago

Even if trump truly wanted to leave NATO, which would be probably one of the biggest blunders for America in the 21st century, he still couldn't do it as the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 prohibits trump from unilaterally leaving NATO on behalf of the USA without the approval of congress. Free money

2

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

sure, @emaminek3048

0

emaminek

5 months ago

would love to hear any yes holder explain to me how weidel has even the slightest chance of becoming chancellor

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

no I'm Italian

0

emaminek

5 months ago

would love to hear any yes holder explain to me how weidel has even the slightest chance of becoming chancellor

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

would love to hear any yes holder explain to me how weidel has even the slightest chance of becoming chancellor

5

Will US leave NATO by June 30?

emaminek

5 months ago

not happening lol

0

Gena🐊

5 months ago

We need clarification, what if NATO is finnaly defeated in battle before the deadline?

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

please fill my buy orders

5

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

God bless america.

3

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

POA's biggest nightmare is probably a job application

8

Israel x Egypt sever diplomatic relations before February?

emaminek

5 months ago

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/egypt/sinai/warnings-egypt-prepares-for-military-confrontation-with-israel/2025/01/06/

0

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

busy counting the stacks he made from his pump and dump

4

Trumputin

5 months ago

Where is Gordon? Is there any hope about negotiations?

Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?

emaminek

5 months ago

he could be brought to the uk to face pending trials

1

Tmwws

5 months ago

This is just free money. A Romanian court recently ruled that Andrew Tate and his brother must remain in Romania while awaiting trial on human trafficking and rape charges

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

5 months ago

https://x.com/NEDAAPOST/status/1876343029390528890

0

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

whoever was certain enough that snow would stop congress needs to delete their polymarket account and call the gambling hotline

5

Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?

emaminek

5 months ago

if yoon doesn't get arrested by the expiry of his warrant no is guaranteed to go up at least a few cents. The timeframe for the constitutional court to reach a verdict on impeachment is past the resolution of this market, so it's uncertain whether this market can resolve to yes thanks to impeachment

1

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

excellent entry point for yes right now, planning to snipe more cheap shares

2

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

thanks man, appreciate it

0

emaminek

5 months ago

at the end of the day the resolution of this market comes down to whether Yoon is impeached or not. The constitutional court has 6 months to confirm or reject the motion of impeachment, so there is plenty of time to get Yoon out of office. The only reason why yes isn't at 100c is that it's not 100% sure how the court will rule, and the situation in South Korea is quite unstable right now. But it has to be considered that it's very unlikely that a nation that portrays itself as completely opposed to the DPRK's totalitarianism and as a western democracy will keep a man like Yoon in power all the way to the big 2026. The majority of the people wants him out, his remaining supporters are a vocal minority. At the end of the day, the institutions and the constitutional courts have a duty to answer to the people and uphold the democratic system. Not to mention the judges of the court would be putting themselves at risk by voting to keep Yoon in, just look at the outrage at the Supreme Court judges for abortion in the USA and multiply it by 5

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

no christmas ceasefire yet…

2

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

and you do realize this market ends before the new us administration even comes into office...?

1

0xFC96eC2C50135017A225e9964196Fa85eBdD16e4-1721774125304

5 months ago

The new US administration may convene a conference on Ukraine in the near future, The Telegraph

Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?

emaminek

5 months ago

may or may not be the case...

1

emaminek

5 months ago

tricky situation for Farage right now. Not resigning might alienate reform uk from musk's influence. We will see though

Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?

emaminek

5 months ago

tricky situation for Farage right now. Not resigning might alienate reform uk from musk's influence. We will see though

0

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

there's no path of her to becoming chancellor, afd is isolated

1

Noommmmmmno

5 months ago

Merz No is undervalued. Alice Weidel yes is undervalued. Habeck yes is undervalued. Merz winning is likely but it’s a lot closer than this.

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

lol

1

emaminek

5 months ago

do people really believe the capital city of the United States of america isn't equipped to deal with some inches of snow ahead of the certification of the president's election? If it never happened in 250 years of history there's a reason why

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

virtually a surebet excluding death

4

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

then why do you have money on yes

0

emaminek

5 months ago

do people really believe the capital city of the United States of america isn't equipped to deal with some inches of snow ahead of the certification of the president's election? If it never happened in 250 years of history there's a reason why

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

yeah im sure your -8k pnl ass is going to be right yet another time!

2

emaminek

5 months ago

do people really believe the capital city of the United States of america isn't equipped to deal with some inches of snow ahead of the certification of the president's election? If it never happened in 250 years of history there's a reason why

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

took*, gave*

0

emaminek

5 months ago

do people really believe the capital city of the United States of america isn't equipped to deal with some inches of snow ahead of the certification of the president's election? If it never happened in 250 years of history there's a reason why

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

do people really believe the capital city of the United States of america isn't equipped to deal with some inches of snow ahead of the certification of the president's election? If it never happened in 250 years of history there's a reason why

3

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

excellent entry point for a quick gain on yes

2

Election certified on January 6?

emaminek

5 months ago

never happened that some snow would delay the literal certification of the US president's election. Just another pump and dump

2

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

dumb americans on polymarket doing God's work rn

13

Next Chancellor of Germany?

emaminek

5 months ago

Alice Weidel yes is as good as donating to charity

3

Noommmmmmno

5 months ago

Merz No is undervalued. Alice Weidel yes is undervalued. Habeck yes is undervalued. Merz winning is likely but it’s a lot closer than this.

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

at the end of the day the resolution of this market comes down to whether Yoon is impeached or not. The constitutional court has 6 months to confirm or reject the motion of impeachment, so there is plenty of time to get Yoon out of office. The only reason why yes isn't at 100c is that it's not 100% sure how the court will rule, and the situation in South Korea is quite unstable right now. But it has to be considered that it's very unlikely that a nation that portrays itself as completely opposed to the DPRK's totalitarianism and as a western democracy will keep a man like Yoon in power all the way to the big 2026. The majority of the people wants him out, his remaining supporters are a vocal minority. At the end of the day, the institutions and the constitutional courts have a duty to answer to the people and uphold the democratic system. Not to mention the judges of the court would be putting themselves at risk by voting to keep Yoon in, just look at the outrage at the Supreme Court judges for abortion in the USA and multiply it by 5

8

Starmer out before July?

emaminek

5 months ago

wouldn't put my money on yes, but no is overpriced right now. There is no way there is only a 3c difference between Putin and Starmer out by July 2025: https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-june-2025/will-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-june-2025?tid=1735947577590

0

Starmer out before July?

emaminek

5 months ago

"liz truss was going to turn the uk into a financial powerhouse" 😭

4

ISHOWMEAT

5 months ago

The UK are just a bunch of retards always get manipulated by their bias media to make the most stupid decisions and cry about it 2 months later. Like they hate everyone Lizz truss was going to turn the UK into a financial powerhouse but they all cried and got her out - Biggest example is Brexit - leaving the EU marked the Pico top on British society all because farage lied about immigration and the costs/benefits of being in the EU and now they have immigration worse then ever - not sure why they still hold elections over there tbh. its just vote - result - cry on repeat

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

if you actually read what I wrote you'd realize I said I have better things to do than hear your bs, and the fees I paid were something like 10 bucks. Not replying any further but please get out of your mom's basement and have a shower

3

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

is that why you have a negative pnl?

3

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

Get a life and feel the touch of a woman and then we can talk. Last time I checked I have a positive pnl and you're sitting on your ass ranting on here. Won't reply past this as I actually have shit to do in my life

3

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

when you will stop screaming at me without a factual basis to do so, you'll maybe have the time to think openly for a second and consider the fact a 2.04% gain in 17 days is equal to an APR of 54.92%. And your dumbass comes talking to me about opportunity cost? Polymarket has no fees either so I don't know what tf you are talking about. The tiny fee to convert EUR to USDC has already been more than paid for by my positive pnl in a month. But I'm sure your miserable life is better than mine as you have so much built-up anger and time to waste on here

3

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

when your illiterate ass understands the basic concept of risk to reward it'll become more clear

3

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

it's a possibility, but I believe the chances are very slim. Putin has a firm grip on power and the economy is resilient enough that such a situation is very unlikely to happen imo. Russia still has a healthy debt to gdp ratio, and we must remember what happened with the last "coup" attempt from Wagner. Either way honestly I'd be happy to lose a few hundred bucks if putin goes lol

1

GoldPanda

5 months ago

I don't understand who will buy yes?

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

5 months ago

great entry point on yes right now

6

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

if there isn't a ceasefire on January 6th this bet is as good as resolved for no already

2

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

thanks for the donation

4

n/a

5 months ago

fools, YOON is alive and well.

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

russia is in a relatively unstable position but putin is nowhere near as hated as assad was. He has a lot of loyal supporters in russia and the russian army is so much better than the syrian government forces that a comparison can’t even be made. Also, syria was weak enough that countries like turkey could meddle in it and bring about the downfall of the regime, russia isn’t. if anything, a lot of countries would even try to prop up putin in case of an attempted coup to maintain the security of the nuclear weapons

1

GoldPanda

5 months ago

I don't understand who will buy yes?

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

spot on. The ukraine war markets have been a goldmine for months up until now in terms of mispriced odds

1

American-American

5 months ago

Chance of Christmas truce is pretty high and would satisfy the resolution criteria of this market. Chance is maybe 30%, definitely not 1% ;-)

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

russia is nothing like syria, the comparison is inappropriate

2

GoldPanda

5 months ago

I don't understand who will buy yes?

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

😭

3

Opi

5 months ago

All in.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

there is a chance but it's very slim in my opinion. And anyways good luck with UMA in the narrow case of it happening, the only precedent we have is the 2023 "ceasefire" which was a unilateral ceasefire just in name. Would've definitely resolved to no as neither russia nor Ukraine took it seriously. There haven't been any significant leaks or foresights about a ceasefire and we are almost 3 days from Christmas now (only celebrated by russia too now). Yes is getting close to its intrinsic value after months of being overpriced but I wouldn't put my money on it, best exit opportunity is probably flipping it banking on a unilateral ceasefire pumping it up for a while

3

American-American

5 months ago

Chance of Christmas truce is pretty high and would satisfy the resolution criteria of this market. Chance is maybe 30%, definitely not 1% ;-)

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

finally yes is at a somewhat reasonable price

2

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

who would've ever thought???

0

Anuarka

5 months ago

I can’t believe. Gordon scammed us

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

more like what you are doing is a casino

0

emaminek

5 months ago

some people here really have a talent of buying high and selling low

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

some people here really have a talent of buying high and selling low

3

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

would still be money thrown to the wind even if it was 2 dollars lol

0

limarjkee

5 months ago

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PAUSE in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

in other words, 6% return in 1 month since I started on polymarket. Yea id say its decent

0

limarjkee

5 months ago

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PAUSE in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

mfs put their money on the Ukraine war halting in 1 day and then they wonder why they have a negative pnl

0

limarjkee

5 months ago

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PAUSE in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict.

USDT depeg in 2025?

emaminek

5 months ago

higher than the s&p 500, not bad at all

1

igambler1

5 months ago

free money

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

mad level of cope 😭

3

Gena🐊

5 months ago

An insider, that I had to redact to protect his identity said to president Putin:

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

great, then buy more

0

n/a

5 months ago

So, what is known so far from the secret negotiations that took place in the United States. A source from the White House: 1) Ukraine will be accepted into NATO in January, and a little later into the European Union. 2) Nuclear weapons will be deployed on Ukrainian territory, completely under Kiev's control. 3) A military contingent of 100,000 NATO soldiers will be deployed on Ukrainian territory. 4) Russia was given an ultimatum, since Ukraine will become a nuclear power in a few days. 5) Russia agreed to capitulate while preserving the territories of the DPR, LPR and Crimea for the next 20 years. The Russian Federation will leave the Kherson region. 6) Ukraine will continue to transit Russian gas through its territory. 7) The fire on both sides must cease immediately.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

if you have this insider information why do you have 50$ on this bet? Buy more

4

n/a

5 months ago

So, what is known so far from the secret negotiations that took place in the United States. A source from the White House: 1) Ukraine will be accepted into NATO in January, and a little later into the European Union. 2) Nuclear weapons will be deployed on Ukrainian territory, completely under Kiev's control. 3) A military contingent of 100,000 NATO soldiers will be deployed on Ukrainian territory. 4) Russia was given an ultimatum, since Ukraine will become a nuclear power in a few days. 5) Russia agreed to capitulate while preserving the territories of the DPR, LPR and Crimea for the next 20 years. The Russian Federation will leave the Kherson region. 6) Ukraine will continue to transit Russian gas through its territory. 7) The fire on both sides must cease immediately.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

hoplofheil and all the yes holders better start preparing to put my fries in the bag at wendy’s

1

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

90% of yes holders tryna pump and dump rn, the other probably eats crayons

0

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

this market is the proof polymarket is retarded lol

1

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

dmitri gordon suffering from BPD rn

0

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

for my polymarket portfolio it almost is. Just can't sell my other bet on ukraine because it would turn a loss

0

emaminek

5 months ago

going all in on no, freest money in the history of polymarket

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

going all in on no, freest money in the history of polymarket

0

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

the market manipulation from yes holders is so hilarious. Not complaining though, buying dollars for 94c rn

2

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

source

0

Puka2005

5 months ago

The route of the aircraft from the special flight unit "Russia" indicates that someone from the Russian leadership may have spent two days in Washington this week. This may indicate secret negotiations, the results of which may become known in the coming days.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

could be him trying to flip some yes shares. Or just some random dumbass trusting headlines. But no one in their right mind would think a ceasefire could be planned AND come into effect in 2 days

0

Zorroh

5 months ago

Guys, is this Dimitry Gordon really an insider? I see no leaks, nowhere.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

not even putin himself could end the war in 2 days if he wanted, gordon doesnt know shit

0

Zorroh

5 months ago

Guys, is this Dimitry Gordon really an insider? I see no leaks, nowhere.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

anyone who thinks yes can ever happen is actually retarded

1

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

risk-free 110% APR on no right now

0

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

ukraine celebrates Christmas on the 25th of December, and I don't think you realize there hasn't been a bilateral ceasefire ever since the start of the war in 2022, while these last months the war has been hugely escalating too

1

Caslor

5 months ago

you guys do know that orthodox christians celebrate christmas early jan right?

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

if it wasn't for trump fans yes would be at 2c at best right now

2

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

emaminek

5 months ago

I saw that article too, but given the fact Trump tends to speak in absolutes and exaggerate, "very serious consideration" is very much underwhelming. If he was really keen on doing it, he would've used a similar language as how he promised to pardon ulbricht. And besides, as I said, pardons happen almost always at the end of the term

0

emaminek

6 months ago

It's beyond me how Assange has a 21% chance of being pardoned within 100 days of Trump in office when Trump has never even seriously talked about pardoning him, a good part of the US establishment hates him and pardons usually aren't even issued in the first part of the term anyways

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

TrumpIsPeace about to start his villain arc as soon as this bet resolves

6

Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration?

emaminek

5 months ago

I am guessing it would resolve as no. But I doubt it would come down to that

0

TheLunoLion

5 months ago

Already asking for clarification before this becomes an issue: What if Congress raises the debt ceiling by so much (say, a googol), or suspends it for so long (say, 100+ years) that the ceiling is effectively abolished but not legally? What will the market resolve to then?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

any yes holder who hasn’t sold already must really hate money. Bet was over since it started anyways

4

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

5 months ago

a Christmas ceasefire wouldn't happen for the simple fact that Russia celebrates orthodox Christmas on the 6th of january

6

revmeatsandwich

5 months ago

how would a christmas ceasefire be handled, for example if it is for the week of christmas only?

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

the usual propaganda by putin, he has been talking about a peace agreement for years now. But it doesn't surprise me as you have been spreading bs for the last few weeks anyways. You still have a decent exit opportunity for yes before the whales shit on you in a few weeks from now

0

emaminek

6 months ago

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1869653297033801820

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1869653297033801820

0

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

Igor Kirillov, a Russian general, was killed yesterday by Ukraine, and russia has promised an "imminent revenge", calling it a terrorist attack. A ceasefire/peace in 14 days is literally impossible, not even mentioning all the other factors, this is just the stroke that breaks the camel's back

1

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

if it wasn't for trump meatriders im not even sure if this market would exist at this point

1

Davide0440

6 months ago

how can he stop the war as a private citizen 😭

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

emaminek

6 months ago

nothing. and even if he did, pardons usually happen on the last days of presidency anyways. So it's definitely lower than 21%

1

emaminek

6 months ago

It's beyond me how Assange has a 21% chance of being pardoned within 100 days of Trump in office when Trump has never even seriously talked about pardoning him, a good part of the US establishment hates him and pardons usually aren't even issued in the first part of the term anyways

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

emaminek

6 months ago

It's beyond me how Assange has a 21% chance of being pardoned within 100 days of Trump in office when Trump has never even seriously talked about pardoning him, a good part of the US establishment hates him and pardons usually aren't even issued in the first part of the term anyways

2

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

exactly. literally just higher paying T-Bills at this point. Arguably the best opportunity on polymarket right now

0

emaminek

6 months ago

Zelensky is very clearly against a Christmas ceasefire, a truce is almost impossible given the recent escalations and Ukraine holding Sudzha. Also, I don't see why Russia would give Ukraine an opportunity to take a break and consolidate its defenses

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

let's see who shuts up on January 1st

0

Cowboy007

6 months ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-russia-supports-orbans-pow-peace-proposals-2024-12-12/

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

the fact you placed a volume of 5.7k down without even knowing the Christmas truce (as if it would happen anyways) would be after the resolution of this bet says it all

7

Cowboy007

6 months ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-russia-supports-orbans-pow-peace-proposals-2024-12-12/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

6 months ago

because the usa's interests align pretty well with hts' and western media has talked positively about the new government, saying it was a liberation

2

emaminek

6 months ago

the fact russia is 73% and usa is 59% is crazy

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

6 months ago

the fact russia is 73% and usa is 59% is crazy

2

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

Zelensky is very clearly against a Christmas ceasefire, a truce is almost impossible given the recent escalations and Ukraine holding Sudzha. Also, I don't see why Russia would give Ukraine an opportunity to take a break and consolidate its defenses

8

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

emaminek

6 months ago

"The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria. All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference. The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process. We stand prepared to lend all appropriate support to all of Syria’s diverse communities and constituencies." According to: https://www.state.gov/the-syrian-people-will-decide-the-future-of-syria/

1

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

just like there were Christmas ceasefires for the last 3 years right? And btw, orthodox Christmas is on January 6th

3

Pollytician

6 months ago

100% gonna be a Christmas ceasefire

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

but 14 year olds with their mom’s credit card and trump meatriders like to believe orange man can just magically convince two countries to cease hostilities by tweeting about peace a few times. Let them dream!

1

imp

6 months ago

I don't see a reason why Russia would want to end the war now. Moscow laid out some terms for an opening to negotiations, and none of these terms are being seriously considered by the West.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

I believe yes might be close to its peak, it spiked from what Trump said in Paris with Zelensky and whether there are gonna be any relevant bullish news a few weeks from now remains uncertain. A gain from flipping yes is possible, but I'd much rather put my money on no than on it. There is too much uncertainty and too little possibility to make an educated guess as to how likely it is to happen for my tastes

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

temporary yes increases from news are definitely possible, but that just means better entry points for me. What Trump, Putin or the media say don't matter as much as the underlying conflict of interests and balance of power. And yes, your average stupid American betting on Polymarket would be such a great opportunity

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

if I were you I would enter no with the current price point. It should be closer to 95-96c imo. Also, it should logically naturally climb in value as the resolution date gets closer

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

both sides are trying to make the other one look like warmongers, that translates into fake "peace" attempts that are essentially empty words and conveniently have terms which the other side would never accept (Ukraine joining NATO and reserving the right to regain its lost lands through diplomacy in a future window for Russia, whereas for Ukraine Russia keeping its annexed gains and enforcing Ukrainian neutrality, which essentially means going back to a situation with no security guarantees). I am not trying to say neither of the sides want peace, but a peace that both sides can agree on under current conditions is virtually impossible, especially given the fact there is little more than a month to resolution. Russia isn't going to sue for a ceasefire/peace when the Biden administration is still in power, Ukraine is occupying Russian land, and most importantly it knows it can't enforce its war goals to a satisfactory extent. It all comes down to that, finding terms both sides can agree on, which is already by itself extremely difficult if even doable and becomes even harder given the small timeframe to resolution. I think no is heavily undervalued because of this, more than 12% in a little more than a month for what has to me the same level of risk as some bonds have is a no brainer. Either way, even if no was to lose (almost impossible) I'd honestly still be happy that peace is reached

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

no problem man, I guess we'll see. I'm inclined to think a yes resolution is almost impossible though

1

kekkone

6 months ago

They’re not even talking.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

my bad, i confused you with trumpispeace

1

kekkone

6 months ago

They’re not even talking.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

emaminek

6 months ago

hard to say right now, they could just be reassuring the west to be able to settle down and establish themselves, will have to see how the situation evolves

1

Nomic0

6 months ago

It seems that this group has abandoned its radicalism.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

could have made 6x his position if he was so sure of his position as he claims to be

0

kekkone

6 months ago

They’re not even talking.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

is that why you sold? And besides, I know the rules by memory

0

emaminek

6 months ago

yes holders must have serious brainrot to think trump's tweet is ending the Ukraine war in a month, with him still being a lame duck president and Biden retaining his hostile and escalatory rhetoric. Dollars are being sold for 91c today, must be the Black Friday sales. Also, what did we discover today that we didn't know already? Trump already made his intentions more than clear enough, and Zelensky talked about peace before (on terms which russia would never accept, so it is as good as having said nothing). What did this meeting reveal to make no cheaper to this extent? It revealed nothing! Nothing was said or outlined, only vague politically charged talks of "peace". Why would Ukraine want to sue for a ceasefire now, while aid is still pouring in from the Biden administration? They would be in a better position negotiating when western aid starts running out. Why would Russia negotiate now? They could get a better deal when the Trump administration is actually in office. Yes holders are reasoning on Trump's statements, which is as good as lighting their money on fire

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

you are so sure of your position you are selling now? That says a lot

0

kekkone

6 months ago

They’re not even talking.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

My whole wallet is into the Ukraine war, I literally have 1 cent in cash. Unlike some degens here, my personal risk tolerance doesn't make me put the majority of my money into polymarket. A lot of yes holders should take notes

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

lil bro you are 15k in the red I know you ain't talking 😭😭

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

blindly trusting what trump says, at this point just follow Jim Cramer lol

3

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

the American reputation depends on Ukraine. It is a show of strength and resolution also to Taiwan, and Ukraine is strategically important. The USA can't afford to show weakness and concede to russia

3

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

the west has no reason to abandon ukraine either, it would be a strategical blunder worse than the retreat from afghanistan

3

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as

2

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

never fails to miss 🔥

1

Mountainman

6 months ago

Anyone holding NO right now must hate money. Hahahaha

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

so you can lose even more money than you are already losing? alright sure

1

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

you either have a good sense of humor or money to lose, or both. Either way, I can't keep discussing if you don't understand the current political situation in the USA. I guess I'll just take your money on January 20th.

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

yes holders just making up data now 😭

5

Caslor

6 months ago

putin gives up syria for a deal in ukraine

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

president elect doesn't mean shit when the current administration wants nothing to do with a peace or even ceasefire in ukraine

0

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

trump has no power to offer anything on the table, his administration isn't in office! This is basic US politics, lol. Even if he could do it, which he can't, putin and Zelensky will never make peace with their current ambitions

1

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

Zelensky's terms are diametrically opposed to Russia's. He wants to join nato, russia literally started this whole war just to prevent nato influence in Ukraine. He wants to eventually get his land back, russia already annexed it to its core territories. They can't even agree on basic solutions. There have been talks of peace for years now

1

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

I think you are forgetting a deal has to be agreed upon by both sides. This is the whole reason this market even exists in the first place

1

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

when the war started, the ruble tanked the biggest. It has been declining since summer 2022 with no sign of stopping. It is by no means enough to justify a ceasefire which even just remotely caters to Ukrainian terms, let alone before trump gets in office. All of you keep forgetting, the Biden Administration will be the one pulling the strings until January 19th, and they have absolutely no reason for a ceasefire. They are all neocons with interests in damaging russia and they also would never give trump such a big victory literally before inauguration

2

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

you think I didn't read the rules? I know the rules by memory at this point. My whole wallet is staked on the Ukraine war. The Russian ruble collapsed almost 3 years ago, did that stop anything? If anything it makes Russian debts cheaper and Russian exports more competitive. The war hasn't been going as planned, again, for almost 3 years. Exactly because of that russia still needs to fulfill its war goals. A ceasefire now just doesn't make sense

1

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

price fluctuations on these position are the sole reason of my negative pnl. If you go look at the past days, I turned around a 70% loss on Assad staying in office by buying undervalued yes shares on the 2025 market. Don't talk to me about pnl, I'm holding these to win, not to scalp like a good portion of yes holders

2

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

the idiosyncrasy of these odds with reality is even more evident when comparing it to other markets: Trump promised to pardon ulbricht on day one, his family is even already rejoicing in ulbricht's release, why is it only at 65%? Trump would actually be able to deliver his promise by the simple stroke of a pen, unlike negotiating the resolution of the biggest war of this century. Same with the tariff markets, the odds are under 40%. It would be much easier to implement tariffs than stop a war as complex as this in a matter of weeks, before inauguration. Maybe that is due to the fact that Trump has a big mouth and his word must not be taken at face value? I really want to see the due diligence of the yes holders, would be really interesting to see. Maybe a drawing made with crayons of trump and putin holding hands their source

1

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

yes holders must have serious brainrot to think trump's tweet is ending the Ukraine war in a month, with him still being a lame duck president and Biden retaining his hostile and escalatory rhetoric. Dollars are being sold for 91c today, must be the Black Friday sales. Also, what did we discover today that we didn't know already? Trump already made his intentions more than clear enough, and Zelensky talked about peace before (on terms which russia would never accept, so it is as good as having said nothing). What did this meeting reveal to make no cheaper to this extent? It revealed nothing! Nothing was said or outlined, only vague politically charged talks of "peace". Why would Ukraine want to sue for a ceasefire now, while aid is still pouring in from the Biden administration? They would be in a better position negotiating when western aid starts running out. Why would Russia negotiate now? They could get a better deal when the Trump administration is actually in office. Yes holders are reasoning on Trump's statements, which is as good as lighting their money on fire

0

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

already done it and I am positive of my opinion. As you are the one making such an outlandish statement, link these sources then, if you are so sure

0

NamelessNerd

6 months ago

Buy yes while its cheap

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

source: trust me bro

0

NamelessNerd

6 months ago

Buy yes while its cheap

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

planning to do just that as soon as I can transfer more funds to my wallet

2

emaminek

6 months ago

even if trump somehow actually got Zelensky and Putin at the negotiating table by next week, negotiations take time, especially with hugely conflicting interest as in this war. A 7% gain on no in only 3 weeks is a no-brainer. Yes should be 2c at best

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

even if trump somehow actually got Zelensky and Putin at the negotiating table by next week, negotiations take time, especially with hugely conflicting interest as in this war. A 7% gain on no in only 3 weeks is a no-brainer. Yes should be 2c at best

5

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

literally impossible. A ceasefire in 3 weeks in a war as complex as this is nuts. More than 7% monthly return on what is virtually a surebet definitely beats T-Bills

5

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

emaminek

6 months ago

still waiting on your "spike" lol. Trump has been talking about a ceasefire for months, doesn't change the fact it isn't possible in so little time

1

Caslor

6 months ago

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113615912452824634 trump calls for a ceasefire, market about to spike

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

tucker isn't going to do shit for a war as complex as this lol. Would be like bringing the Teletubbies to negotiate a hostage release

3

Caslor

6 months ago

keep also in mind that tucker, a close trump ally, is currently in russia and could help with negotiations

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

too good of an entry point for no to refuse

1

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

trump said a whole lot of things he hasn't done, as most politicians do anyways. There is no way in hell a war as big as this is ending in a month under current conditions

0

m1thrandir

6 months ago

Trump said he will end the war as president elect.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

13c is not too bad as a buy, for sure closer to the real probabilities imo

0

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

i guess we’ll see. My point was their situation in ukraine is not bad enough to warrant a withdrawal, at least in my opinion and especially for such a strategic node, but we’ll see. If HTS’ momentum stops, as it seems to me is happening, then it’s pretty much over though

0

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

russia’s situation in ukraine is not desperate. They have deep rooted issues and I am far from having a kremlin bias but with the current rate they will eventually win, it’s more a question of when and how

1

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

russia is not collapsing at all, every source still predicts a russian win. HTS is peanuts compared to russia, it’s not even close honestly. And again, they have no incentive to further provoke russia further, the last thing they want is more incursions and airstrikes. With russian and iranian backing the front is already stabilizing as we speak, aleppo in 3 days and now the frontlines have been virtually the same

1

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

I see you're almost 40% down on your positions. I am positive it's not getting back to 13c, just as I am positive it's not resolving to yes, unless somehow the whole front collapses overnight and Biden and all of the EU have a spiritual awakening where they cut all aid. Just take the L at this point, better to keep 60% than lose 100%

0

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

war is far from simple math. If it was only simple math, russia wouldn't have gotten its ass handed to them by Finland, or the USA by the Vietnamese just to name a few. Nukes are entirely off the question as of right now, russia has no interest to actually use them besides blabbering and sending the usual vague threat. Russia can't obliterate Ukraine in 6 weeks, not in any conventional way. There is just no way that is happening, by the very least in winter too. I don't know how to tell you this man but trump can only start cutting aid AFTER he gets inaugurated, which is beyond the resolution of this market 😭. Several EU countries are sending new aid packages too. If you think Biden is really gonna do anything to even just lower aid to Ukraine, sell all your shares now and invest them in the S&P 500 while you still can. I'll be glad to have some limit orders filled. Trump has a big mouth. If you really want to risk all this money to take what Donald trump says at face value, then I guess you just deserve to lose it at this point. When are you gonna realize politicians, and among them for sure Donald trump, don't keep their promises that much? Trump has no political leverage to do this, I'm already betting on him not being able to end it by April, let alone January. This is the closest thing to buying dollars at 93c

0

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-sees-grounds-negotiations-ukraine-putin-spokesperson/story?id=116441134

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

I am 99% sure the fronts are gonna stabilize. HTS got lucky Assad's forces retreated, but Iran and russia still have their backs. There is no way russia is evacuating because of a badly equipped, small army of insurgents. You have to remember just how much russia invested to protect and maintain its tartus base up to today: if russia loses tartus, it loses its only base in the mediterranean. It has held it for 53 years, I don't see how a moderate advance by HTS warrant a 24% probability of them completely withdrawing by the next few months. Also, syria's situation doesn't really matter for the resolution of this market as long as the Russians stay in tartus: why would HTS ever do something as dumb as attack one of the biggest Russian strategic assets out of its mainland? They already have Assad to worry about, and he's more than enough trouble. Russia might be engaged in Ukraine but I'm willing to bet it's still able to kick their asses if provoked

0

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

further evidence russia has absolutely no intention to withdraw: https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1863994674005922153

1

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

and besides, for this market whatever trump does is irrelevant. Aid won't be cut by the slightest before trump's inauguration, if anything Biden is rushing billions upon billions before trump is in office. Do you think that is a rhetoric of a government that wants to negotiate? At this point, this market is pretty much implying a 9% chance Russia obliterates Ukraine in 1 month in a war which has mostly been stagnant for dozens of months now

0

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

also, the offender is always in a disadvantaged strategic situation. Ukraine being on the defensive helps it in terms of attrition and equipment/manpower losses

0

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

it truly is and if you have even a basic understanding of the war goals of both sides, their mentalities, their economic situations, and their vested interests in the region, you'd know what im talking about. You have a substantial amount of money bet on this, I'd reconsider your position if you can't even come to the obvious conclusion this is a complex war. I'm willing to bet a good portion of yes holders, at least the reasonable ones, would agree with this too

0

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

russia is far from collapsing

1

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

emaminek

6 months ago

the tartus base is wayyy too important for russians to just abandon to the first stroke of luck of HTS. The front will likely stabilize and besides, I don’t see why HTS would have it in their interests to directly assault russia. We have to remember that their recent gains would likely not even have happened if it wasn’t for russia being distracted in ukraine

0

hzbz

6 months ago

why is yes so low? Russians are withdrawing already

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

and do you think the Biden administration has any interest whatsoever to push for peace? They have been racing against time to send as much aid as possible to Ukraine before trump's inauguration, they have escalated the conflict, all this while Ukraine is in Kursk

0

Lissabon

6 months ago

It is impossible for Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine before his potential inauguration because he would lack the time, authority, and international standing to mediate such a complex conflict. Resolving the war involves deeply rooted geopolitical issues and extensive negotiations among multiple global players, which cannot be achieved in the short period before January 20, 2025. Even with active diplomatic efforts, such processes typically take months or years, making a rapid resolution unrealistic.

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

emaminek

6 months ago

even if Zelensky wanted to end the war, which by itself is already a big speculation as Russia is unwilling to cede any actual gains or let Ukraine join NATO, do you really think that a war as complex as this can be solved in a month? 7% is highly overvalued all things considered

1

American-American

6 months ago

New tweet out by Zelensky that I analyze here. Odds might be low, but definitely NOT 7%. This market is mispriced 1https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1863558692899377480?s=19

Who will be inaugurated as President?

emaminek

6 months ago

I'm pretty sure that doesn't count as inauguration

0

Heitian

6 months ago

Why does Harris still have a chance of becoming president?

Who will Jake Paul fight next?

emaminek

6 months ago

he might fight someone not on the list

1

Charizard

6 months ago

If I bet everybody fromthis list no, am I going to make about 10 percent profit?

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

emaminek

6 months ago

he said he would consider it in his past term, but I doubt he will make it a priority to pardon him now

0

PickleRick

6 months ago

Why would he pardon Snowden? What's the argument there?

Will Biden finish his term?

emaminek

6 months ago

16bln is dents on the crypto market cap either way. And for any traditional market 13% in 3 months is unheard of. You have serious brainrot if you believe more than that is sustainable

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

16 Billion dollars from FTX is about to be released back into the crypto market, yet people are willing to park their money for 3 months, and risk a 100% loss for a measly 13% return on an 81 year old that has already been pushed aside from his party finishing his term. Imagine watching the crypto market fly as your money is parked here, holding on for your tiny little return, only to wake up one morning and seeing that it went to ZERO. “YES” holders must hate money.