#76
Rank
148
Comments
99
Likes Received
876
Likes Given
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Teacher market is not analogous, the only thing Walz could have meant is Teacher, ending in ER, here he said Venez, and it could either finish with la or lan. And as Venezuelan does not count, we have a clear no
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Different case, teacher could have only ended in ER
MrNFT
4 months ago
Some of you guys clearly weren't here in the teacher market and it shows. Vibes all day
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Mam to samo stary
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I listened to every moment he says Venezuela/Venezuelan. There's no doubt. Venezuela x2.
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
No, "Venezuelan" would not count toward the resolution of this market because it is a different form of the word "Venezuela." The market specifies that pluralization or possessive forms of "Venezuela" will count, but other forms, such as adjectives or demonyms like "Venezuelan," do not. Since "Venezuelan" is not a pluralized or possessive form of the country name itself, it would not be included in the count.
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
This market is for the Reading rally not Scranton fyi
samuraimyth
4 months ago
This is Scranton PA he ain’t gonna talk about BORDERS 30 times!
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
1683!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
You are welcome :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Polymarket should resolve these markets faster otherwise people are getting scammed by pumpers in the comments
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Analysis checked out
0xlPka76vpakwudbaiqnxbc8anrucjska
4 months ago
Not usually a gloater but I finally scored big
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Am looking at the same data 🤝
0xlPka76vpakwudbaiqnxbc8anrucjska
4 months ago
Energy 10+ has only had about a one in three chance of hitting during the last three months NC 16 Uniondale NY 5 LV 4 Arizona 9 Wisconsin 14 Asheboro NC 8 Grand Rapids 11 Florida 11 Virginia 4 Philadelphia 5 Racine Wisconsin 4 Nevada 6
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Hear, hear
Donkov
4 months ago
We desperately need plain Comrade over/under market, instead of Comrade Kamala. Trump is trolling us
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Nice one
rohitram43
4 months ago
I am out. Thank you (again), Mr. Trump!
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
October 2nd
thakattack19
4 months ago
when is it?
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Can we get the VP debate mention market?
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
Feel like he is more likely to double down, as JD has. But can see where you are coming from. All the best
BuckMySalls
4 months ago
point isn't that he won't attack migrants but that he will not (hopefully) single out a group again, especially after the cat story was debunked ten times over
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
He called them illegal immigrants last rally, which has even more bad press as they are there legally, think they will revert back to saying Haitian.
BuckMySalls
4 months ago
there's also not much point in warming up the Haitian attacks that have brought him nothing but bad press in the last week. Should really be trading 15:85 not 35:65.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Have you spotted any shady accounts?
thakattack19
5 months ago
Give liquidity to this market wisely guys. The bitcoin bros are insider trading this market
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Nice one chad
Mrmarket334
5 months ago
RIGGED? EZ BOYS
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Lol, don't think I have heard him say oil rig, but that would be a tough one
midastouch
5 months ago
i bet on him making up his mind and sticking to saying that he "won the debate" instead of saying that it was rigged against him. it is foolish and contradictory to say both, but trump is quite unique
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
yeah, I have the same thinking, from the hannity interview post debate he doubled down that he won the debate
midastouch
5 months ago
i bet on him making up his mind and sticking to saying that he "won the debate" instead of saying that it was rigged against him. it is foolish and contradictory to say both, but trump is quite unique
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
4 of them were said by trump about bidens son
eb..
5 months ago
convicted felon was said 5 times in the last debate. now with a prosecutor, it should be said even more times. the odds are very undervalued now
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Cheers, good luck
Winner579
5 months ago
Good Luck y'all
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
If she pins it on him in the debate that would be a strategic mistake as he can set the record straight, would think they will try to avoid this
sharks
5 months ago
I sort of agree, but still thinks she brings it up. She's been trying to pin it to him for so long, don't see how it doesn't slip out atleast once. Don't know though.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Ok cheers
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Border count currently is 10 right?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Border count currently is 10 right?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
So assuming the Q and A is as long as part 1. There is still a lot that can happen here?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
All right thanks
mr.ozi
5 months ago
Yes, but there is no footage of the Q&A yet. It comes later today.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Has this finished?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://x.com/CarsonJSwick/status/1831451829118677313 I think people are trading off this thread
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
At least the situation is more ambiguous than when kingfisher started buying everything out last time...
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Good luck rozi
mr.ozi
5 months ago
All right, I am ready! I hope he doesn't say 'illegal immigration' or 'Israel', but I hope he says 'McDonald's' - he likes to talk about it the last few days. If neither is true, I'll get a short end of the stick here ;) May the gods throw the dice in a favorable way!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Did he get it early?
HaterzLoserz
5 months ago
Well played Mr Fisher, Well Played
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
So he clearly knew early.
mr.ozi
5 months ago
This is extremely likely to be rigged. I am out of this with some profit. See you guys. I'll watch how Kingfisher's positions behave after we see the interview.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
What do you mean?
mr.ozi
5 months ago
This is extremely likely to be rigged. I am out of this with some profit. See you guys. I'll watch how Kingfisher's positions behave after we see the interview.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
What is going on? @Kingfisher
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
not on youtube, but looks like somone knows something?
Kalags
5 months ago
did it come out already?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Some big No buying going on
mr.ozi
5 months ago
Did Kinkfisher watch the interview? Why are they buying AI and Illegal immigrants at 0.89?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yes I agree with this analysis
HaterzLoserz
5 months ago
But lets make sure everyone has fun with your bitcoins and your polymarkets and everything else you are playing with
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Why is everybody so confident crypto/bitcoin is going to hit?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
He just needs one more of those "border czars" combos
BuckMySalls
5 months ago
12
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Thanks
BuckMySalls
5 months ago
12
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Whats the count on border?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Cheers best of luck
OmenOfLord
5 months ago
Best luck to all!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
He calls illegals immigrants, illegal aliens
TheAmericanPsycho
5 months ago
why aliens ?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
no, but this rally is in Pennsylvania ..
Donkov
5 months ago
He didnt say drill baby drill last night, right?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
You want to get in on the no side 😉
Car
5 months ago
for what its worth, he said inflation 8 times in his last CNN townhall, which was around 1 hour
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Classic car pumping his positions
Car
5 months ago
for what its worth, he said inflation 8 times in his last CNN townhall, which was around 1 hour
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
The fact that it will be partisan, suggests to me that Trump won't have the chance to say his usual slogans. That's just my impression.
BuckMySalls
5 months ago
Quite funny that you guys look at CNN townhalls and think this isn't going to be partisan. Finally some value odds.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
The fact that it will be partisan, suggests that Trump won't have the chance to say his usual slogans. That's just my impression after watching his responses to strong questioning.
BuckMySalls
5 months ago
Quite funny that you guys look at CNN townhalls and think this isn't going to be partisan. Finally some value odds.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I can see that polymarket has acknowledged their mistake by making the tulsi gabbard endorses market rules more specific. Will this market's participants be refunded as they made bets on the rules set out in this market?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I can see that polymarket has acknowledged their mistake by making the tulsi gabbard endorses market rules more specific. Will this markets’ participants be refunded as they made bets on the rules set out in this market?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think no holders should ask for clarification from Shayne Coplan via twitter dms, to show evidence of a "formal endorsement" and explain how it meets the rules set out in this market in light of the evidence, or atleast justify what has unravelled here, e.g technicalities don't matter in rule sets.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think polymarket should issue a statement addressing the points raised by No, explaining how the additional context makes sense, and whether the precedent now is to put up additional context on the rules AFTER everyone has made bets reading the original rules whenever there is ambigouity.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
🤝
hillary2win
5 months ago
A good captain goes down with the ship. And in this case i was a good captain
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Thanks for the info
432
5 months ago
there are 3 big whales which each has 2-4 million tokens
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think if you just bought some No's at these prices, you would feel alot better about yourself, and hopefully stop spamming on here
Justifax
5 months ago
I've seen a lot of early results get reversed. Don't get too excited.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Bro you were debating, in bad faith, against no yesterday
Car
5 months ago
interesting start for NO
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Nice
XiJinPing
5 months ago
100% P4 SO FAR -- TOO EARLY TO DECIDE (HAHAHHA)
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yes, the market resolution becomes arbitrary
hillary2win
5 months ago
If polymarket can't resolve a market properly than it can't tell the truth for any market.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Hahaha yeah, was scrolling this thread and thought the exact same thing when I saw Car here
Gena🐊
5 months ago
Car I've been following you in different markets plus discord and you are one of the biggest scammers here.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Gradually then suddenly.
Au-gust
5 months ago
The fact that people aren’t unloading YES…
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rfk-jr-blames-censorship-failed-campaign-gives-details-talks-trump.amp
Au-gust
5 months ago
Link please, that’s pretty damning
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Add this to discord
de5nuts
5 months ago
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/ayotte-tries-supporting-trump-without-endorsing-him-msna844471
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Despite actions that could be interpreted as supportive, the evidence indicates that resolving the market now would be premature. The requirement for a "formal endorsement" has not been unambiguously met, and official sources and actions activeley contradict this.This ambiguity was present in the market before additional context was give as seen by the huge volatility in percentages: the market was clearly undecided. To quote Polymarket "The most important thing to us is truth," "People are incredibly conditioned to only believe media that confirms their biases and desired outcomes, Polymarket tells people the true odds regardless of what anyone wants to happen" https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/31/election-uncertainty-in-venezuela-turns-polymarket-into-an-oracle/.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yes was pretty big when this dropped
EmpirePending
5 months ago
This is the biggest piece of evidence and nobody here has posted it. A CNN report detailing the exact court filings RFK’s lawyers filed which originally stated it was an endorsement and was later retracted and edited to make it clear it was not a formal endorsement. This is the single biggest piece of evidence and this market must be resolved as no!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
So are you saying that poly market can make a clarification, that is contradictory to its original rules, and get away It. How is that a fair market, let alone decentralised and on a mission find the truth
TimeQuestion
5 months ago
One of the problems of using UMA and Polymarket clarifications is that new users think this market will resolve based on the original rules. It likely won't. It is more likely to resolve based on the clarification, even if the clarification is completely wrong.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This would make UMA redundant as well?
Justifax
5 months ago
UMA has never resolved against a poly clarification. To resolve against a clarification would make clarifications useless and destroy their relationship with Polymarket.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Then vote yes
Justifax
5 months ago
When UMA votes YES, just remember it wasn't poly or uma that scammed you. It was the pumper and dumpers that sold at a profit that conned you into giving them your money.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
We just got hard evidence for our case
Pogpogpog
5 months ago
No holders STILL coping?? LMAO!!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Lol what are you talking about
Pogpogpog
5 months ago
No holders STILL coping?? LMAO!!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Why don't you respond to any point?
Car
5 months ago
cant wait to see your NO sell order
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
But he hasnt said he'd vote for trump. In fact, in california he is still running, he will ote for himself
Justifax
5 months ago
What scammers like aenews didn't tell you becuase it woud ruin their pump and dump scheme, is that this market only requires that rfk had to say he'd vote for trump. Bill Bar who hates trumps guts says he will vote for trump. It was obvious that this market had a very low bar of support required. This is much lower bar than the bernie or even the nikki market that went yes.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
They literally delete the word endorsement from the first filing
AG1234
5 months ago
"EKEN SMUCKER : NOTICE Respondents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan as the We The People candidates for President and Vice President of the United States, as a result of today’s endorsement of Donald Trump" - August 23rd https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Have you scrolled down?
AG1234
5 months ago
"EKEN SMUCKER : NOTICE Respondents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan as the We The People candidates for President and Vice President of the United States, as a result of today’s endorsement of Donald Trump" - August 23rd https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html Have a look here, original note, and then the amended
isaidway
5 months ago
They never endorsed, actually... Certainly not formally anyway.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
why would you buy yes if they literally editted out the word endorcement, from an official document?
Car
5 months ago
WOW THIS IS CRAZY! buying more yes.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This amended note, is the clearest piece of document stating that the campaign clearly changed from endorcement to no endorcement of trump. I am baffled that Yes is still arguing?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
lol..
ElonMuskin
5 months ago
It’s over: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Official document: MENDED NOTICE Respondents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan as the We The People candidates for President and Vice President of the United States respectfully withdraw their opposition to the Petition to Set Aside filed by Alexander Reber and Janneken Smucker. Counsel unintentionally misstated the reason and the facts underlying the withdrawal in the original Notice filed this afternoon owing to a misunderstanding of the underlying facts giving rise to our instant Notice. Respondents hereby withdraw their opposition to the Petition of Alexander Reber and Janneken Smucker." misunderstanding of the underlying facts here is a reference to the fact that a lawyer mistakenly filed stating that the reason was because of endorcment to trump. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This literally proves our case. Thanks for sending, I will update the discord post
ElonMuskin
5 months ago
It’s over: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Later Friday, Kennedy’s attorneys filed an amended notice of his withdrawal from the challenge in the state. “Counsel unintentionally misstated the reason and the facts underlying the withdrawal in the original Notice filed this afternoon owing to a misunderstanding of the underlying facts giving rise to our instant Notice,” the filing stated.
ElonMuskin
5 months ago
It’s over: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This proves our point. did you even read the article "While the filing stated that Kennedy was withdrawing the challenge “as a result of today’s endorsement” of the former president, a Kennedy campaign spokesperson said he had not done so and the attorney-made filing had not been “reviewed by the campaign.”
ElonMuskin
5 months ago
It’s over: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I dont know why yes is having such bad faith rhetoric/not responding to any of the points put forward by no.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
"The most important thing to us is truth," the Polymarket team explained to me in an interview. "People are incredibly conditioned to only believe media that confirms their biases and desired outcomes, and algorithms end up only serving people information they agree with. Polymarket tells people the true odds regardless of what anyone wants to happen", they detailed.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This doesn't say anything. You are still missing the point RFK/campaign have still not endoresed. In fact, they have avoided the term/explicitly gone against it.
Pidor🐓
5 months ago
doesn't seem relevant. how about this tho? https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Look this is up to UMA. All indication shows that RFK and the campaign have been avoiding a formal endorsment so far. I think this makes sense politically, as they want to show support but want some political power to have sway on things they disagree on with Trump's campaign and still push that agenda, hence no formal endorcement. Makes complete sense how they have clearly avoided the term, especially how the VP said she does not endorse any person and pinned that post. The messaging is clear to me, each to their own. Do your own research.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Are you saying there is no difference between support and formally endorse?
Car
5 months ago
this seals the deal. these are his own word:
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I don't want to hold animosity to Car, as i think yes holders have been screwed by the additional context. However, thank you Car for the research.
homosexual
5 months ago
A huge thank you to Polymarket user "Car" for supporting (but not endorsing) the NO case by providing a tweet that confirms what NO holders have been saying the whole time!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
He is specifically avoiding the word endorse. Don't you think he would have said endorse by now?
Car
5 months ago
this seals the deal. these are his own word:
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Also clearly different set of rules in that market
bluejay
5 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-during-friday-address
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
No one is pumping, literally stating the rules. Yes holders also got screwed imo with the additional context clarification
BlackSky123
5 months ago
Pump that no price higher boys, I know you have it in you.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
If the rules stated media like it did in the Endorse by Friday market, then your argument would hold, in the rules set out in this market “credible reporting” has not been specified.
Car
5 months ago
Main Stream Media, Social Media, Trump himself, RFKs family all say he endorsed Trump. They all say that while he actually didn't mean it as an endorsement. But you polymarket gamblers know for sure he didnt endorse him. LOL.Crazy!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Ditto wolofpolymarket, polymarket was created also with the idea that media is not a verified source to seek truth
Anon5215
5 months ago
Remember the DJT token "Was Barron Trump involved in it's creation?" Polymarket came out with a statement that it believed Barron was involved all along after the market was resolved No. The Yes holders were refunded. We are in the same situation. The conned Yes holders will likely be refunded and this market will resolve based on the truth, which is no formal endorsement as confirmed by his campaign and potentially Nicole Shanahan herself.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
You have not named a resolution source. P4
n/a
5 months ago
No one has verified what Nicole supposedly told one person on twitter. The entire media and 5 of his family members have publicized/commented on his endorcement
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Surely you can see how this warrents P4 - too early resolution.
n/a
5 months ago
A screenshot posted on twitter has no validity at all. It contradicts EVERY single media publication. No journalist has verified or even acknowledged what is in that screenshot. Until it is verified by the Journalistic Community and the dozens of articles about his endorsement are redacted that holds no weight. I highly doubt Nicole would claim every single media outlet is publicizing false information and only correct one single person on X
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Media consensus is not the metric by which this market is resolved, if it would be the metric it would be clearly stated like it does in this market "The resolution source for this market will be live footage of the address or official information from RFK Jr. and his campaign, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-during-friday-address?tid=1724521095485 There is no clause here that says credible reporting is used to resolve this market, only rfk jr or official campaign spokesperson, where so far we have clear indication that they are disputing formal endorcement. Regardless lets wait and vote for P4 so that we get more clarity as you are suggesting yourself
n/a
5 months ago
A screenshot posted on twitter has no validity at all. It contradicts EVERY single media publication. No journalist has verified or even acknowledged what is in that screenshot. Until it is verified by the Journalistic Community and the dozens of articles about his endorsement are redacted that holds no weight. I highly doubt Nicole would claim every single media outlet is publicizing false information and only correct one single person on X
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Media consensus is not the metric by which this market is resolved, if it would be the metric it would be clearly stated like it does in this market "The resolution source for this market will be live footage of the address or official information from RFK Jr. and his campaign, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-during-friday-address?tid=1724521095485 There is no clause here that says credible reporting is used to resolve this market, only rfk jr or official campaign spokesperson, where so far we have clear indication that they are disputing formal endorcement. Regardless lets wait and vote for P4 so that we get more clarity as you are suggesting yourself
n/a
5 months ago
Just to clarify PolyMarket does not care about technicalities with verbiage. If you No sayers were right then China would of won the most gold medals prediction. The IOC recognizes Hong Kong as part of China and list them as so. That prediction clearly worded things by Country and not team. Polymarket did not pay out based on how the rules were written but based off of how the western media publicized things. The media has confirmed and multiple sources have published his endorsement. If that is not true then have them redact that.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
@coconut you are not making sense
JohnPork
5 months ago
if this gets overturned but I lost my money on saying No to RFK officially endorsing in Friday address…. 😕
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I don’t think that’s an analogous example
n/a
5 months ago
Just to clarify PolyMarket does not care about technicalities with verbiage. If you No sayers were right then China would of won the most gold medals prediction. The IOC recognizes Hong Kong as part of China and list them as so. That prediction clearly worded things by Country and not team. Polymarket did not pay out based on how the rules were written but based off of how the western media publicized things. The media has confirmed and multiple sources have published his endorsement. If that is not true then have them redact that.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think that market wasn’t as specific, it had only endorsement without “formal” like this market states
JohnPork
5 months ago
if this gets overturned but I lost my money on saying No to RFK officially endorsing in Friday address…. 😕
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think many people are reaching this conclusion as we speak…
n/a
5 months ago
According to the criteria set by Polymarket, this is a definite no. I initially bet yet but switched against it as Kennedy's declarations are not formal endorsements (in fact, some of his stated support is every begrudging) and he has not said he will vote for Trump.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Shanahan (VP of RFK) https://x.com/NicoleShanahan -, official campaign memeber, pinned post on twitter "I’m not a Kamala Democrat. I’m not a Trump Republican I’m an INDEPENDENT American who is endorsing ideas, not a person or a party. I will continue working to give a voice to the voiceless and bring power back to the people". Clearly not a formal endorsement from official campaign member. If anything clear opposite to formal endorcement.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Shanahan pinned post on twitter "I’m not a Kamala Democrat. I’m not a Trump Republican I’m an INDEPENDENT American who is endorsing ideas, not a person or a party. I will continue working to give a voice to the voiceless and bring power back to the people". Clearly not a formal endorsement from official campaign member. If anything clear opposite to formal endorcement.
XiJinPing
5 months ago
RFK VP's DM's are open https://x.com/NicoleShanahan -- just ask her to clarify!!!
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Jewish was explicitly specified, hopeful was not. On many acccounts hopeful is a compound
BlackSky123
5 months ago
There is actually no way to get around the fact that Jewish not counting for Jew but Joyful somehow counting for Joy is a completely retarded notion. The rest is all coping, I really hope the yes bagholders buy more. I love seeing retarded scammers flail around and lose hundreds or thousands of dollars to people who have more than two brain cells. It's very hilarious.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump or formally endorses Trump for President of the United States by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. What do you mean?
0x2620669F32f402372c66FF1BB2Ca995Bb8F4D644-1724510924126
5 months ago
But it doesn’t say “Formal Endorsement” all it mentions is if he will “endorse” Trump. If it said does he give a “Formal Endorsement” you’d be correct, but it doesn’t
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
If that is the case that should have been stated in the proposition. How he is "acting" is up to personal interpretation. The rules for the proposition are clear. "Formal endorcement" from RFK JR or Campaign. Which has not happened, neither is the fact that he is voting for Trump, as he will be voting for himself in California.
raspberry17
5 months ago
My point is that RFK has formally endorsed Trump because he acts like it, despite what he may say. Actions are more important that words
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Support does not mean formal endorcement. RFK Jr.'s spokesperson, Stefanie Spear, has officially stated: "Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump."
raspberry17
5 months ago
Seems like some people expect formal to include a tuxedo and evening gown. Nobody in the planet doubts that RFK has stopped pursing the presidency, wants Trump to win, and critically, has taken actions to help Trump win. This his Kennedy officially supporting Trump, which is an endorsement. RFK is an idiot and may say whatever, just as Trump denies paying Stormy. Actions speak louder than words
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think if this resolved as yes, the no’s would not be disputing, and that is telling. In fact there is evidence of this happening with the Obama precedent, when yes just accepted the resolution and didn’t send to UMA.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Seeing a lot of people sell their yes and buy no’s
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1276725391146618941
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://discord.com/invite/uma Under evidence-rationale
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://discord.com/invite/uma Under evidence-rationale
Robyratto1
5 months ago
May someone please give me the link for Discord?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Tbh I think that Polymarket screwed both yes and no holders here due to their ambiguity. Either way this resolves will be disaster for them
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yeah I also think this happened, huge polymarket mess up
EmpirePending
5 months ago
The added context is totally wrong. The context is right for the Friday market but they add it to this market and the November market too without realising the wording of the rules is different. Some polymarket employee mistakenly didn’t read the rules for each market he was adding context to.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Boom
ben291
5 months ago
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
No buy incoming..
IAmHarold
5 months ago
truthteller sold 43,190 Yes at 97.1¢ ($41,932) 2m ago
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Explicitly formal, concerning paperwork on endorsement!
de5nuts
5 months ago
With all this ambiguity why would we not rely on the formal question and answer posed to the campaign in regards to an endorsement? The campaign answered that RFK was NOT endorsing and a lawyer had made a mistake, that's a very clear response to a direct question which is central to this market.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Good point
EmpirePending
5 months ago
Another way to look at how support does not equal formal endorsement. The US have sent $700m in aid to “support” Palestine during the war. But you sure as hell can agree that the US don’t endorse Palestine or hamas
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
What’s even the steel man case for the Yes camp? How do they respond to formal endorsement?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
“However, he made clear that he wasn’t formally ending his bid and said his supporters could continue to back him in the majority of states where they are unlikely to sway the outcome. Kennedy took steps to withdraw his candidacy in at least two states late this week, Arizona and Pennsylvania, but in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, election officials said it’s too late for him to take his name off the ballot even if he wants to do so.” AP news
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
The bottom line is people are making bets here based on the rules, if the rules are arbitrary, then there is no real market.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
“Shortly before his speech in Phoenix, his campaign had said in a Pennsylvania court filing Friday that he would be endorsing Trump for president. However, a spokesperson for Kennedy said the court filing had been made in error and the lawyer who wrote it said he’d correct it.” AP news
aenews2
5 months ago
None exists. In fact, his team actually retracted a legal filing today that would have indicated endorsement.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
The discussion is about the explicit rules set out by polymarket for this market
yourrapist1776
5 months ago
Not like he literally said he's joining the trump campaign or anything, or just went on stage at a trump rally where trump announced he would be the head of a new government agency. But no, all the credible sources are wrong, RFK himself is wrong, he never endorsed trump and doesn't back him in any way
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Have you not being following the discussion at all!?
yourrapist1776
5 months ago
Not like he literally said he's joining the trump campaign or anything, or just went on stage at a trump rally where trump announced he would be the head of a new government agency. But no, all the credible sources are wrong, RFK himself is wrong, he never endorsed trump and doesn't back him in any way
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
News is not the resolution clause in this market lad
Pidor🐓
5 months ago
desperate poors trying to manipualte after losing their tiny net worths. hilarious. reuters decided this for you guys https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
The resolution here states FORMAl: rfk himself or campaign
Pidor🐓
5 months ago
well, your lucky run is over and it's back to the fryer. gg https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Let alone someone who formally endorses someone
XiJinPing
5 months ago
ive never seen someone who supposedly "endorses" someone, without ever saying they "endorse" them, or the word at all
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This market has a stronger case. In that market the resolution states credible reporting as a source, and a lot of the news is saying he effectively dropped out. Here in this market it is clear that formal means formal, especially as the spokesperson from the campaign disputed the formal endorsement.
EmpirePending
5 months ago
Polymarket fucked up bad today. They also resolved “will RFK drop out by Friday” market to yes even though he clearly hasn’t dropped out.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
You cannot have faith in any market if there is no precedence, otherwise we are just at the behest of polymarket arbitrary decisions. Especially as here there explanation doesn’t explain anything as to what they themselves specified “Formal Endorsement”.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This is an important detail. As “formal enforcement” even though it is wasn’t, is slightly ambiguous as to what it clearly means, voting is not Ambiguous and he is clearly not voting.
Robyratto1
5 months ago
Kennedy is from a safe state, California, and he said that his supporters who live in safe states should still vote for him. Thus, Kennedy himself won't even vote for Trump. This is not an endorsement
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
“ Throwing his support to President Trump and joining the Trump campaign suffices as an endorsement, hence this market should resolve to "Yes."” this explanation doesn’t even make sense, as the rules first state “vote or Formal endorsement”, here in the added context it just says endorsement, and clearly he is didn’t say voting
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
are you going for that big sweep
hillary2win
5 months ago
i know
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think this market is set clear with "Formally". Compared to the other market today that was on "endorse trump by friday address", they have no specific claim in the rules about "formally endorse" which this market does"
hillary2win
5 months ago
i know
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated."
XiJinPing
5 months ago
Rules: 1, "announce he will vote for trump" (didnt say that), 2, "formally endorse" (didn't formally endorse)
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Bingo
XiJinPing
5 months ago
Rules: 1, "announce he will vote for trump" (didnt say that), 2, "formally endorse" (didn't formally endorse)
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45"Before the speech, his campaign had said in a Pennsylvania court filing Friday that he would be endorsing Trump for president. However, a spokesperson for Kennedy said the court filing had been made in error. “Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated."
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
This is crazy
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yes this needs clarification
ALevinson
5 months ago
The rules on the “Donald Trump” market are unclear. It’s says “resolve to yes if she says “Donald” or Trump” 5+ times. So if she says “Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump” is that 5?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Around what time is the speech?
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Agree
ScooterMcGavinShooter
5 months ago
She never says "Abortion", it's always, "Women's reproductive rights". Easy value there
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Gg fellas, onto next
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Iran 3+, national security event , once he starts talking about isreal, iran comes up hot.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Agreed 🤝
BuckMySalls
5 months ago
Correct, reproductive rights is the euphemism that puts lipstick on the pig. She could well say 'we reject the Trump abortion ban' but abortion bros are overconfident about this.
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
I think Kamala is more likely to say female reproductive rights than abortion
JanSobieski3
5 months ago
Yo, how is everyone doing, odds are pretty high on everything compared to the last one. Interesting
JanSobieski3
6 months ago
When can you withdraw?
JanSobieski3
6 months ago
Nice.