#4315
Rank
14
Comments
7
Likes Received
70
Likes Given
Ecuador Presidential Election
Oompa-Loompa-01
2 months ago
She's expected to lose the second round though.
0
homosexual
2 months ago
Jan 30 - 44% Luisa Gonzalez, 35% Daniel Noboa. https://x.com/RComunitariosEc/status/1885194975492661384/photo/4 45% Luisa Gonzalez, 42% Daniel Noboa https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7290920989054406658
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Oompa-Loompa-01
2 months ago
Selling now at 5.1
1
Car
2 months ago
Poor Axios
Trump transgender sports ban?
Oompa-Loompa-01
4 months ago
The price and the time frame :)
0
catmania
4 months ago
to any "no" voters if they exist, can i ask why?
Will Trump do better with men than in 2020 election?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
How did you come to the conclusion that the price (90c+) is value? (not trolling, just curious)
1
LucyCross
5 months ago
Just waiting to get paid on 11/10/24 is all this bet entails.
Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
(it should have been probably around 14%)
0
balloooooo
5 months ago
the CNN poll linked only has 15k responders, of which 7% identified as lgtbq. 1000 people is a very small sample size. this is closer to a coin flip
Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
Initial exit poll data from the 2020 presidential election indicated that Trump had doubled his share of LGBTQ+ voters to 28%. Later analyses contradicted that finding, however, showing that LGBTQ+ voters were actually essential to Joe Biden’s victory.
0
balloooooo
5 months ago
the CNN poll linked only has 15k responders, of which 7% identified as lgtbq. 1000 people is a very small sample size. this is closer to a coin flip
Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
But also - the poll was probably very wrong:
0
balloooooo
5 months ago
the CNN poll linked only has 15k responders, of which 7% identified as lgtbq. 1000 people is a very small sample size. this is closer to a coin flip
Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
I can even give you better price than the current one ;)
0
Moetus
5 months ago
LGBTQ is realizing that the Dems are exploiting them for free votes
Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?
Oompa-Loompa-01
5 months ago
Yes, please buy more.
1
Moetus
5 months ago
LGBTQ is realizing that the Dems are exploiting them for free votes
U.S. recession before May 2025?
Oompa-Loompa-01
6 months ago
J.P. Morgan sees the probability of recession happening by the end of 2025 at 45 %. I:USRPEM is at 60 %: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_recession_probability#:~:text=Basic%20Info,month%20and%2060.83%25%20last%20year. Curious, how this translates to NBER announcement probability. Not sure but I buy more... :)
2
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
Oompa-Loompa-01
7 months ago
It could but even then it doesn't have to change the result because of the 14-d sliding window.
0
Oompa-Loompa-01
7 months ago
This is an interesting one. Arguments for the flip: the resolution source is updated several times a day and the two polls mentioned by cryptofreedom have not been included yet. Against: if there are multiple polls from the same house, their weight is decreased. Actually if "a pollster releases multiple polls within a 14-day window, those polls together receive the weight of one normal poll". The last Morning Consult poll is for Aug 30 - Sep 1 and the one before that is for Aug 23 - Aug 25. Therefore the new one doesn't have to change much. Moreover, the poll results are not always added to 538 on the same day. So if the market is really resolved as soon as a new data point (Sep 6) emerges, it might as well be without the new poll data.
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
Oompa-Loompa-01
7 months ago
I agree, 99.9 for No was a nonsense.
1
BabyYoda12
7 months ago
Dont we have to one more rating- i.e 7th september rating? These are the rules -The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve once the first data point after September 6, 2024, is published. If no such data point is available by September 13, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'No.'"
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
Oompa-Loompa-01
7 months ago
This is an interesting one. Arguments for the flip: the resolution source is updated several times a day and the two polls mentioned by cryptofreedom have not been included yet. Against: if there are multiple polls from the same house, their weight is decreased. Actually if "a pollster releases multiple polls within a 14-day window, those polls together receive the weight of one normal poll". The last Morning Consult poll is for Aug 30 - Sep 1 and the one before that is for Aug 23 - Aug 25. Therefore the new one doesn't have to change much. Moreover, the poll results are not always added to 538 on the same day. So if the market is really resolved as soon as a new data point (Sep 6) emerges, it might as well be without the new poll data.
1
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
Oompa-Loompa-01
7 months ago
But hey, you got $0.11 in rewards! :)
1
schottchris
7 months ago
This is my first time participating in a prediction market. I have now bought and sold for zero profit, but its been a fun one to watch. Good luck all