#2388
Rank
14
Comments
8
Likes Received
149
Likes Given
Will Germany declare a state of emergency in February?
0xB16B00B5
11 months ago
youre a bum!
0
Osq
11 months ago
can anyone send me 20c ill pay you back 20.05c
Fact Check: Is Luigi Mangione gay?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
Luigi isnt gay, he never was. it was the blood pressure medication. it fucked with his head but hes over that now. he could probably get a note from his doctor!
2
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
what a whore!
2
How many Fed rate cuts this year?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
according to the rules of this market a -50bp move is counted as 2 cuts. so if they were to go -50bp at the december meeting the five option would resolve to 'yes' and all others to 'no'.
2
0xe3E1555fcf1BdA4DE888921E44D2B56b2e6e12d4-1726886180611
1 year ago
Assuming there's a fourth rate cut in December, I understand four would win. But if it is a half point would four still win or would five win? Because it would take it up to 1.25.
How many Fed rate cuts this year?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
correct. this market considers a -25bp move as a cut. so the september move of -50bp is considered as 2 cuts in this market.
0
ShortMeDaddy
1 year ago
Is 100bps but 3 cuts considered as 4? If yes then im cooked
How many Fed rate cuts this year?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
if they go -25bp in december the 4 market will resolve to 'yes' and all others will resolve to 'no'. if they hold in december the 3 market will resolve to 'yes' and all others will resolve to 'no'.
2
ShortMeDaddy
1 year ago
Is 100bps but 3 cuts considered as 4? If yes then im cooked
Fed Interest Rates: December 2024
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
fedwatch shows implied probabilities from fed funds futures. if you go to the methodology page of fedwatch you can see the details of the calculations. its not very complicated at all.
1
WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets
1 year ago
How does Fedwatch calculate their probabilities? Is it based off the price changes of different treasuries on the secondary market or something?
How many Fed rate cuts this year?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
with only one meeting left, this market is essentially just another market for the december meeting. 3 = hold in dec. 4 = -25bp in dec. 5 = -50bp in dec.
0
Alex4247
1 year ago
How is this defined? Does this number include Sep cuts?
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
i dont know. usually there is a small amount of time from the query settles until the market fully resolves, but on this market it has taken way longer than usual
0
camouflage
1 year ago
Why I cannot claim still ?
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
idk, the resolution was proposed and the challenge period went through. on the UMA site it says the query has been settled!
1
camouflage
1 year ago
Why I cannot claim still ?
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
we will be able to redeem winning shares for 1 USDC each in roughly 2 hours
5
HHYP
1 year ago
How long it needs to pay into our wallet?
How many Fed rate cuts this year?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
1 cut = -25bp. so the september move of -50bp counts as 2 cuts for this market. the september meeting(and all other meetings this year) is included because this is a market for all of 2024.
2
Alex4247
1 year ago
How is this defined? Does this number include Sep cuts?
Solana above $145 on October 11?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
Sol was below 145 at noon ET, which is what matters for the resolution of this market. its written in the rules.
0
ShowMeTheMoneyBitch
1 year ago
It made it to 145 2 hours ago, why I loss then?
Solana above $145 on October 11?
0xB16B00B5
1 year ago
it takes a while for markets to actually resolve. but yeah, its decided and will resolve to 'no' eventually. until that happens the market remains open.
0
Ktmil
1 year ago
is it not over ?