'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What just happened?

0

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Where were you able to watch online (inferring since you said you watched part of it and fell asleep)? Let me know if you have the link

1

Predicto123

1 year ago

We might be cooked fam 💀

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He's like the go to movie box office predictor for this group.

0

90210

1 year ago

Jatinder predicting 55m

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks! What time does he usually do them?

0

TimeTraveler

1 year ago

Still no Jatinder estimate, should we start to worry?

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does he usually do them on Friday?

0

TimeTraveler

1 year ago

Still no Jatinder estimate, should we start to worry?

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It includes Indians. I believe it includes Pacific Islanders (Filipinos, for example) as well

0

Fred19999

1 year ago

Does this include Indians?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Nor did you even apologize or remove take responsibility for that.

0

SAMURAICAT

1 year ago

In case for accusation of manipulation, just for reference :)

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The last one you posted was a parody account. This is just some random right-winger with 5,000 followers.

0

SAMURAICAT

1 year ago

In case for accusation of manipulation, just for reference :)

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Care to share your research with the other Yes's

0

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

I've done some more research and am ready to declare this market a RARE CERTIFIED TRIPLE LOCK 🔒🔒🔒

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There's nowhere else saying she said that. It's misinformation.

1

SAMURAICAT

1 year ago

https://x.com/PGATUOR/status/1848859892276465900

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

For 20 million listeners, she'd better make time

1

NoiseC

1 year ago

Does she really have time to hear about elk meat and cold plunges?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But it was all at once, theta is over time, right?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why the sudden drop?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why the sudden drop?

0

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Black don't crack

5

XiJinPing

1 year ago

how is Trump decaying so much, but Kamala is still the same price lol?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, Joseph Roganson continues to elude both candidates...

3

JohnathanDoe

1 year ago

Kamballa will not participate in a Joesph Roganson podcast interview.

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I thought it has to be on Iranian soil. Am I wrong?

0

NYDenizen

1 year ago

US sending one of its most sophisticated anti-ballistic missile batteries + 100 soldiers to man it. Report is that will take about a week to get in place. Will Israel wait?

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Fair enough, thanks for your answer.

5

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm curious what the case for yes is. Trump has improved his standing with certain minority groups, such as blacks, latinos, and even Arab-Americans. However, has anyone seen evidence that he's made similar progress with Asian-Americans?

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks for this. Which polling firm did this?

0

TanOri

1 year ago

Party identification: • 42% identify as Democrats (down from 44% in 2020). • 22% identify as Republicans (down from 23% in 2020). • 31% identify as Independent (up from 25% in 2020).

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm curious what the case for yes is. Trump has improved his standing with certain minority groups, such as blacks, latinos, and even Arab-Americans. However, has anyone seen evidence that he's made similar progress with Asian-Americans?

1

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good point, I wonder what his contract with Spotfiy says about creative control and who has the final say so on guests.

0

Speculo

1 year ago

Lol people are finally realizing... It's not up to Joe to decide, it's up to Spotify. And guess what? They want both presidential candidates on their platform. She's wants too, because she is bleeding voters, smthing has to be done.

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just curious, why free money? It's looking like she's doing better with Asians than Biden did. Wondering if I'm missing something

0

i0000010

1 year ago

Free money on yes here

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@just.some.guy thank you

0

jingyu3

1 year ago

我需要购买USDT

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good question, I think they'll both go, but I already have too much invested in this, that I don't want to increase my exposure in case Rogan decides its a no go.

1

Eyebrows

1 year ago

Why are hardly any of y'all on the Trump goes on Rogan market. Makes no sense

Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm torn between no, hell no, and fuck no.

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@badatthis yeah I had the same problem when I used to do it. Nothing's ever easy with those people.

0

Szty1

1 year ago

1.6

World Series Champion 2024

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

God Bless you for saying that

0

Frostbite

1 year ago

Mariners good

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks @Rayse and @aenews2

1

Rayse

1 year ago

Fischer released another lack luster internal poll. A plus 7 partisan poll lead is embarrassing. We really need a non partisan poll though.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I mean, not to be a Debbie Downer, but +7 isn't horrific for an internal poll.

1

Rayse

1 year ago

Fischer released another lack luster internal poll. A plus 7 partisan poll lead is embarrassing. We really need a non partisan poll though.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I used to think you round after you calculate hte difference. But you round before because that's what Jesus woudl do or something]

0

badatthis

1 year ago

In my calculation the avg should be 1.538. I guess they are biased towards Kamala because inbmy math 1.538 doesn't round up to 1.6!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You are rounding before you calculate the gap, right?

0

badatthis

1 year ago

In my calculation the avg should be 1.538. I guess they are biased towards Kamala because inbmy math 1.538 doesn't round up to 1.6!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Hmm, I was double checking my math a few times, but been at this nonstop

0

badatthis

1 year ago

In my calculation the avg should be 1.538. I guess they are biased towards Kamala because inbmy math 1.538 doesn't round up to 1.6!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So we are sure (barring any shenanigans) that TIPP and Rasmussen's update completely cancel each other out?

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Isn't it 1.46, rounded up to 1.5? They might even remove Pew, which pushes it up even higher.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I mean the market seems undecided if it's going to be 1.5-1.9 or 1.0-1.4

0

Lman

1 year ago

What uncertainty?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I guess I''m remembering suddenly; there's still uncertainty that's why it's not at it's usual Friday morning 85/15 dynamic

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Isn't it 1.46, rounded up to 1.5? They might even remove Pew, which pushes it up even higher.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

您睡中国人吗？

0

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

You seem like pros. Thanks for sharing comments. Been following along. Appreciate it.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, our little discussion group is alot more positive than on somoe of the other political ones. I apprecaite it.

1

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

You seem like pros. Thanks for sharing comments. Been following along. Appreciate it.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, and every week we hate ourselves for it

3

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Do you guys do this bet every week? Holy hell it’s a complex one!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But maybe I'm wrong too. Wouldn't be the first time

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Isn't it 1.46, rounded up to 1.5? They might even remove Pew, which pushes it up even higher.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I t hink you nailed it

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You aren't. I was worried too.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You aren't. I was worried too.

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Isn't it 1.46, rounded up to 1.5? They might even remove Pew, which pushes it up even higher.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

refreshing their site but nothing

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@szty1 Where is it posted? Thanks, btw

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@szty1 Where is it posted? Thanks, btw

0

mombil

1 year ago

TIPP down to 49-47

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What did her past internal polls say (for comparison's sake)?

0

Rayse

1 year ago

Fischer released another lack luster internal poll. A plus 7 partisan poll lead is embarrassing. We really need a non partisan poll though.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait, will Emerson drop in time to count?

0

mombil

1 year ago

TIPP down to 49-47

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So it's only 1.5 if it's Kamala +1? Is that correct?

0

mombil

1 year ago

TIPP down to 49-47

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@jingyu 您可以用微信翻译，对吗？

0

just.some.guy

1 year ago

USDT is Tether, which works fine here, although they prefer USDC (another stablecoin) on the Polygon blockchain. If any of that seems like a foreign language you can ask any question on the General board of Polymarket's discord. GL!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But you might have had the right idea being late. The last two weeks I was early, and I was badly positioned for when public opinion started to shift. Yeah, I'm just doing what I do before every Thurs. At least I haev a good option this time. I'm debating whether to take the money and run (I have a cost basis of $.18 for 1-1.4. I could maybe sell for a decent profit in the early 20's. I have nothing left in 1.5-1.9. I also took the money and run on that one. Feel like either way I'm going to choose the wrong one with this market.

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There's also the possibility of the Atlas poll, but we don't know if it will be this week or not. Don't know why these people can't ever publish a schedule.

0

SaulG

1 year ago

What the hell with these prices lol

'Smile 2' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Hi, ProBeaver

0

TheNoobBeaver

1 year ago

Hello guys, The proBeaver is again here , in the movie markets

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait, do they use RMG?

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Two Trump friendly polls (Emerson and RMG) dropping this morning.

'Smile 2' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Those are always my two stages of participation in most of these markets: 1. Here we go 2. Fuck...

1

PickleRick

1 year ago

well fuck

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

小心，你不知道如果他们是scammers

0

jingyu3

1 year ago

我需要购买USDT

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WyNnHmvWmc

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I am NOT saying this fulfills the conditions or not. I just came across it. Make of it what you will:

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I am NOT saying this fulfills the conditions or not. I just came across it. Make of it what you will:

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mombil thanks! If you don't mind me asking, why mainly 1-1.4. I feel like I'm missing something that you have thought of. Is it in anticipation of changes due to tomorrow's Rasmussen update?

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I always hedge though.

0

briccbybricc

1 year ago

has anybody done a hedge position with 1-1.4 and 1.5-1.9. If one of both comes losing money isn't an option.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Done that before, but sometimes there will be a surprise poll in weeks past that will shift it in another direction.

0

briccbybricc

1 year ago

has anybody done a hedge position with 1-1.4 and 1.5-1.9. If one of both comes losing money isn't an option.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Thecoconut have they changed how they include rasmussen (see @thecoconut's remarks)

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's in the article

0

HelloWorld12

1 year ago

about 37% for Kamala 77% for Trump

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm talking about what they are offering in Vegas, not Polymarket.

0

HelloWorld12

1 year ago

about 37% for Kamala 77% for Trump

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So it's still 1.6. How are they fucking us?

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

"Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/15 -- Trump +1"

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@TheCoconut They've been doing daily polls for awhile now. They just aggregate the data using a moving average int oa weekly poll. Actually, ras dropped already and it's in there as weekly data still:

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@TheCoconut They've been doing daily polls for awhile now. They just aggregate the data using a moving average int oa weekly poll. Actually, ras dropped already and it's in there as weekly data still:

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.mmamania.com/2024/10/16/24271303/will-donald-trump-be-guest-joe-rogan-podcast-bookies-lay-odds-maga-kamala-harris-experience-ufc

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Bookies in America are giving the following odds: 62% for Kamala on Rogan for 85% for Trump. Bet accordingly if you wish:

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Bookies in America are giving the following odds: 62% for Kamala on Rogan for 85% for Trump. Bet accordingly if you wish:

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@the coconut, they won't remove rasmussen because it's weekly. They'll simply replace it with the new Rasmussen as they do every week

0

TheCoconut

1 year ago

+ if they remove Pew and / or Rasmussen is +2 Trump it'll go lower

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@szty1 possible they will but not likely for the reasons you mentioend

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I would avoid using market buy and market sell at all costs. I learned that the hard way.

0

Will143

1 year ago

There’s no market buy with limited slippage tolerance right?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, that was my plan at the start of the week too.

1

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How far away is Trump lead from the current number. I think it's 1.7 away. That position was .9 away. Not sure if my position seems more wrong because you disagree with it ideologically or what

0

GNS

1 year ago

2.5-2.9 Are you delusional?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So what other polls are you expecting, besides Rasmussen. I hear talk (some of it my own) about Atlas.

0

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The Republicans might win, but why are you so sure it's a lock. It looks like it could go either way. You might have thought of something I haven't, however.

1

aenews2

1 year ago

This is a lock, free money

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@xiJinPing You're heavily yes on Trump doing Rogan. Part of Rogan's schtick is that he's independent. 50% of his audience didn't vote for Trump last time. This is a big chance to expand his brand and make history. Why would he only interview Trump and then not interview Harris?

0

paulyd7-

1 year ago

Just playing no leak but still see her going on. Either Rogan having them both on at same time for debate, or both on in general, or neither. He’s not going to pick one candidate over the other… so it’s definitely happening. Do what you will with that info

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@speculo, which dude?

0

paulyd7-

1 year ago

Just playing no leak but still see her going on. Either Rogan having them both on at same time for debate, or both on in general, or neither. He’s not going to pick one candidate over the other… so it’s definitely happening. Do what you will with that info

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Nice to see you again. Any other polls we're likely to see besides Ras. I hear maybe Atlas.

1

mombil

1 year ago

Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

good point

0

getgood

1 year ago

better off betting NO on Trump because Rogan will either have both or neither. he's said so numerous times and has shut down Trump previously this election cycle and in 2020

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not info, just your opinion. I agree with it, but just post it. You don't come on and say you read an article. Who the hell raised you?

0

paulyd7-

1 year ago

Just playing no leak but still see her going on. Either Rogan having them both on at same time for debate, or both on in general, or neither. He’s not going to pick one candidate over the other… so it’s definitely happening. Do what you will with that info

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

reported you

0

paulyd7-

1 year ago

Just playing no leak but still see her going on. Either Rogan having them both on at same time for debate, or both on in general, or neither. He’s not going to pick one candidate over the other… so it’s definitely happening. Do what you will with that info

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're a fucking asshole

2

paulyd7-

1 year ago

Just playing no leak but still see her going on. Either Rogan having them both on at same time for debate, or both on in general, or neither. He’s not going to pick one candidate over the other… so it’s definitely happening. Do what you will with that info

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Link, bro

0

phantom7-

1 year ago

Just saw a leak that Kamala is going on the podcast this week!!!

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Awesome, link?

0

phantom7-

1 year ago

Just saw a leak that Kamala is going on the podcast this week!!!

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have no idea, but this thing just took off. It's been tightly range-bound for awhile, so something is up. Suddenly the resistance went away at 35 and 36. I went online and haven't found anything yet.

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

what happened?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's right. I mean it's free money. If you don't like free money, you're a communist.

0

Nosensei

1 year ago

Why don't you bet more on No then. Go big or go home :D

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, I'm not betting on this for Alex Jones. Kamala needs to do this. She needs to fight for everyone's vote. She can't stay on MSNBC and CNN.

1

Al100x

1 year ago

I’m new to this game. But I’m 1000% sure this is free money. No way Kamala will go on JRE podcast. Think rationally, without Alex Jones’s comment on it would you still bet on YES?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Take us home, Mamala.

2

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Welcome!

1

getgood

1 year ago

fuck it. I'm Kamala's biggest hater but I'm betting YES on Kamala and NO on Trump. Rationale: Rogan won't have only Trump and Kamala won't go on Rogan so if Kamala flakes on Rogan, Rogan flakes on Trump. If Trump goes, Kamala goes (or at least conjecture that she will after)

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm pro-Harris and I'm voting Yes. I think she should do this. She is being too cautious. Why don't you have some faith in her? You don't win elections by preaching to the choir at MSNBC; she needs to reach young men. There's no better game in town than Mr. Joe Rogan. Also, what makes you so sure he wants to destroy her. Half of his listeners didn't vote for Trump in 2020? I also don't think it will kill the Democrats downballot if Joe Rogan gets the better of her on some gotcha questions.

1

Slade366 - 15686

1 year ago

I've noticed only Harris haters are buying Yes. Harris lovers are buying NO because they want Democrats to not lose any more support in downballot house and Senate races

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You mean constantly interrupt her? I think Joe Rogan is more of a gentleman than that.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

I don't think Kamala is gonna go outside again before the election after what Brett did to her tonight

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The 9/30-10/15 is after the fact. That's not any sort of guideline. You don't need to tell me obvious stuff like of course they will replace a poll to eliminate duplication. The fact is you can't give any rationale because none exists .It's their world; we just live in it, but you can't fault us for being delusional when you can't explain it either.

0

badatthis

1 year ago

There is a ton of confirmation bias which you guys use to build your theory. Most of if not all is about it. First, yes they are somewhat flexible with the range of days polls need to have been conducted but they still tell about it (atm it's at 9/30-10/15). Second they consistently include only one poll from a same polling company even if there are several one published by different medias. They do this to eliminate duplication. But hey, why I enlighten you with the real world, I'm just hurting my propability edge for zero benefits to myself. :D

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Bro, I bought them like a week and a half ago. I wouldn't use the D word Mr. "Trump Lead."

1

GNS

1 year ago

2.5-2.9 Are you delusional?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@badatthis, okay, so if you are correct, how long do they keep polls for? Two weeks? Three weekS?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have Fox taking them to 1.3 then. Does that track with what others have? This is not yet factoring in Rasmussen.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why do they hate her?

0

Memosin

1 year ago

Deb Fischer in her own polls lost 14 points of lead to Osborn using the same pollster. And this is the only poll since the beginning of September that shows her in the lead. Nebraska, despite being deep red, really, REALLY hates Deb Fischer.

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Guessing but bc of the Kamala Harris interview on Fox. Supposedly she'll make some pro-crypto remarks

0

ryzenshyne

1 year ago

news?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

but if you'd asked me three months ago if Kamala would go on Joe Rogan, I'd have said "no"

0

MikhaRlin

1 year ago

Truly bizarre if it does happen

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

My definition of bizarre has become a lot looser with each election cycle

0

MikhaRlin

1 year ago

Truly bizarre if it does happen

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Totally agree, and with all the buzz surrounding this, it wouldn't behoove either candidate to turn down the opportunity. There's no reason for Joe Rogan to not want to interview both. This is a huge coup for him, not that he needed it.

0

Eyebrows

1 year ago

The answer is likely yes on both or no on both. Rogan doesn't seem like the kinda guy who would only go for one of them. Inconsistent with his brand.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have Fox taking them to 1.3 then. Does that track with what others have? This is not yet factoring in Rasmussen.

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks! Wow, I''m surprised she fell by that much. She was at +2 last time.

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Fox Trump +2 poll dropped.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the dick part though?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

kinda a dick move there ngl

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's that bring us to then?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why are people panic buying 1.0-1.4? Not that I'm complaining? :)

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

wow

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Fox Trump +2 poll dropped.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What'd they do now?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

kinda a dick move there ngl

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No worries. I've made that sort of mistake so many times. Why is no one mentioning Atlas anymore?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

so if tipp or ras go a single point towards kamala (which theyve both trended in the last couple days) we are in B2.0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why are people panic buying 1.0-1.4? Not that I'm complaining? :)

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm conused. TIPP posted earlier today, right?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

so if tipp or ras go a single point towards kamala (which theyve both trended in the last couple days) we are in B2.0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm with you on this. Buy more 1.0-1.4!

0

badatthis

1 year ago

You guys moan about RCP supposed bias but still bet like there was no bias. Shouldn't you buy 1.0-1.4

'Smile 2' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does anyone know if that means any changes we should factor in?

0

enderone

1 year ago

Interesting - we've switched to the-numbers for resolution after the mojo issues.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I already own 4590 shares of 1.0-1.4.

0

badatthis

1 year ago

You guys moan about RCP supposed bias but still bet like there was no bias. Shouldn't you buy 1.0-1.4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I was no until about a minute ago. I'm getting out before the vote.

0

Anonymous231

1 year ago

2 hours till what?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

till the vote

0

Anonymous231

1 year ago

2 hours till what?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the connection to Russia? Is that who sponsored this coin/token?

0

Le-King

1 year ago

Only 10k to get to 10c for No boys, come on Russian Oligarchs, show us your balls

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What?

0

Barboss

1 year ago

Oh no…

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also how does "they make polls for many medias" affect if they are dropped.

0

badatthis

1 year ago

You guys are so keen into your RCP conspiracy theory lol. They have included Marist poll before and will do that in the future too. If they don't include something that has been previously included or drop something by suprise it's because there are some companies that make polls for many medias. Like Ipsos and TIPP. But it's fine, keep believing, I can gain edge by buying according to the truth.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not what we mean, bro. We mean they randomly drop polls from the average. I don't mean they remove them; I mean they will decide a certain poll is old after two weeks, but then another time they'll keep a poll for almost a month. I defy you to show me how it follows any set rule or pattern. It's just whatever they feel like. Also correlates with whether that poll makes Kamala harris look good. There are plenty who have observed this that aren't libs like me. A lot of right-wingers have noticed this too. If there's a pattern, what is it?

0

badatthis

1 year ago

You guys are so keen into your RCP conspiracy theory lol. They have included Marist poll before and will do that in the future too. If they don't include something that has been previously included or drop something by suprise it's because there are some companies that make polls for many medias. Like Ipsos and TIPP. But it's fine, keep believing, I can gain edge by buying according to the truth.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

sure

0

actors

1 year ago

who wanna advice?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That was pretty good; I've gotta admit.

0

yourrapist1776

1 year ago

"I will study your crashout" no you should study my balls in your mouth

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

yes

0

Szty1

1 year ago

TIPP tracking poll ticked up to +4 Harris. Will they replace the old I&I/TIPP with this?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You've said this on six forums today. Profit off your insights and buy a share, honey. My best to you and Travis.

0

SWIFTTT

1 year ago

YES will crash to 20c in 2-3 days. There's no new info on this at all. YES already peaked in value.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You also deployed it

8

Pirates

1 year ago

Just told my buddy about a pizza place, I guess that means I launched the restaurant

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe "she" is a bot. She says the same shit on other markets, literally.

0

KaiserAra5

1 year ago

why don’t you buy no? it’s free money

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/muRW9cTIPxw

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just kidding, me and no sleep and autocorrect had plenty of gems also :)

1

Dzhi

1 year ago

chad is about to perform sudoku if this resolves fairly

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sorry, couldn't resist

0

FSTB

1 year ago

There's just no liquidity bro. Small buys move the market.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'll tell you who always had enough liquidity: P Diddy

0

FSTB

1 year ago

There's just no liquidity bro. Small buys move the market.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It just opened today. Don't Swifttt Boat us.

0

SWIFTTT

1 year ago

YES will crash to 20c in 2-3 days. There's no new info on this at all. YES already peaked in value.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sudoku or Seppuku?

3

Dzhi

1 year ago

chad is about to perform sudoku if this resolves fairly

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://docs.uma.xyz/using-uma/voting-walkthrough

0

giajvia

1 year ago

i dont know how to do it

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because it's her only hope of getting a lot of young male voters between now and election day. She has to see that the only explanation for her fall in the polls is that she's playing it too safe.

0

getgood

1 year ago

How delusional are the "Yes" holders? Kamala did 2 hours with CNN and then her team was mad when CNN put out 27 mins of it. They wanted to edit it down to 18 mins. Even the "tough" 60 Minutes interview was multiple hours over the course of multiple weeks edited down to less than 20 minutes. In what world does she decide to do 2+ hours with Joe Rogan? If she wouldn't allow CNN or CBS to put out an unedited interview, why would she let Joe Rogan?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's right. She needs a game changer. I also think he will be reasonable. People are acting like he's Sean Hannity. Joe Rogan's brand is (even though I think it's not totally real) "Ahh shucks I'm just an indpendent who is asking questions" If he gives him an Elon Musk-style Hawk Tuaha and then grills Kamala, he'll look like a partisan hack. CNN said that 50% of his listeners didn't vote for Trump last time. He doesn't get out of bed in the morning thinking "How can I get Trump in the White House?"

0

Speculo

1 year ago

This is an ongoing situation, so it’s essential for everyone to remain humble. Why should she consider accepting Joe's request? Because she's falling behind in every swing state. She’s already at a disadvantage, and while she may not be the most charismatic or clever politician, she is clear-headed. To turn things around, she needs to appeal to male voters, especially those who tune into Joe's podcast.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That makes sense, you mean the TIPP +3?

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

I get 1.6. +5 will be added and I assume +3 will be removed, so that gives 1.6.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's always the wild card with those people.

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

Depends how many, if any, they knock off the bottom of the list.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

When I wrote that 1.5-1.9 was higher in both though, not the case anymore.

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

Look at the bids not the offers. 1.5-1.9 has higher bids. Liquidity is too low to just look at offers.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, now this is something he deployed as well.

2

Mountainman

1 year ago

SHIT!!! YES HOLDERS SELL QUICK!!!! "NO" holders may actually have a chance here!!! https://x.com/Dannyjokes/status/1844434684014719439

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks, which dip, there were so many today?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good job!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good job!

0

Frozencomet

1 year ago

damn it feels good to have held when it fell to 1.3

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@getgood it's your first month and you ain't making money either. Also, I'm not claiming to be a business genius. But if you're going to trade based on Alex Jones pronouncements, I think you, Trump, and I would all be better off in index funds, yes.

0

TrumpPundit

1 year ago

Trump is really a marketing genius💡, he's shown it time and time again. Thats how he built his empire of course but him now venturing into a crypto token is super smart. I'm not sure how deeply Trump is involved tho but he's got it pinned on X. They got quite an interesting roadmap — https://x.com/Official_WIFL/status/1846405917941588467

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree. I learned the hard way how accurate and "real clear" their methods are. lol

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Funny how 1-1.4 is still the favorit when the average is 1.5 and that doesn't even include the Marist +5 :D

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He built his empire with his father's money. He declared bankruptcy six times and Forbes Magazine (hardly a left-wing rag) said that Trump would have had more money if he had put his dad's money in an index fund. I'll agree with you that the token is a super smart way to cash in on his notoriety.

0

TrumpPundit

1 year ago

Trump is really a marketing genius💡, he's shown it time and time again. Thats how he built his empire of course but him now venturing into a crypto token is super smart. I'm not sure how deeply Trump is involved tho but he's got it pinned on X. They got quite an interesting roadmap — https://x.com/Official_WIFL/status/1846405917941588467

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

true, it took me a bit to adjust last month to Kamala not surging

0

Szty1

1 year ago

I think it's two things: 1. People are asleep in the US, 2. MAGA folks bought into the idea that Trump is surging and can't change course.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can someone explain to me why 1-1.4 is selling for more than 1.5-1.9 after the Marist poll has her up +5? I'm paranoid I'm missing something obvious. Is there some Atlas poll coming?

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm a bit tired, so I may have made a mistake. How are you getting 1.8. Am I forgetting how they round?

0

Szty1

1 year ago

1.8 by my count

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm calcultating that the Marist poll would push Kamala up to 2.0. Is anyone else getting different numbers. Of course, that's if RCP deigns to include it.

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I know right? I'm grateful for it. I'm buying 1.5-1.9 with both hands. I already overbought 2.0 1 week and a half ago when things looked far brighter for Kamala.

0

Szty1

1 year ago

Funny how 1-1.4 is still the favorit when the average is 1.5 and that doesn't even include the Marist +5 :D

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Link?

0

io9000

1 year ago

Anonymous sources from within the trump campaign say he will do another debate i why isnt everyone buying 2 debates rn

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's probably the same way for blue states. Because it's a red state, there isn't as much demand because people make certain assumptions about who will win.

0

Rayse

1 year ago

Why is it that there is barely any polling on the senate races in red states? I can understand somewhat for Nebraska, but there is also very little for Montana, Florida, and Texas.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He was drunk or high I forget. I think she'll do better than THAT. lol

0

singa

1 year ago

If she does it would be like the Congressman Russo radio interview from House of Cards that ends the campaign

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He was drunk.

0

singa

1 year ago

If she does it would be like the Congressman Russo radio interview from House of Cards that ends the campaign

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Disagree, I think Harris is slumping because she has been too cautious and hasn't made herself available.

0

Slade366 - 15686

1 year ago

Pretty much every poll has showcased the less voters actually have heard from Harris, the more they supported her. And Joe Rogan isn't going to give her nothing but softballs. So no, I definitely don't see this helping her.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think it most likely will. It will expose her to the exact audience she is struggling to reach, and I think she can be charming and direct in a way that will be endearing. She also gains credibilit for having the guts to do it. It has a Nixon going to China kind of feel.

0

Wojtek

1 year ago

If this happens do you think it will help her? I can't imagine her performing well in this kind of setting.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks

0

Keni

1 year ago

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-joe-rogan-what-we-know-1969003

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He has like 20 mil listeners; they can make time.

0

MageGold

1 year ago

Do they still have time to do this?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think Rogan is totally in the tank for Trump. He has a right wing bias, but I think he'd rather get publicity and not appear too partisan.

0

Katrakila

1 year ago

there is absolutely no way that Rogan will invite Kamala

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think he has more to gain by being reasonably fair. It would also bring in a new audience for him as well.

0

HouseAlwaysWins

1 year ago

yeah I agree, Joe would have her on just due to the massive publicity. It's just that Joe rogan wants her on so he can ask hard questions, in which case Kamala will decline. Or it's kamala wants to go on in which case she will try to control the questions asked, which of course Rogan will disagree and he can make more viral clips talking about how her team tried to coerce him.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I feel like if one does it the other will, and it would look bad if Trump agreed and Kamala didn't.

0

PBet

1 year ago

Joe would definitely have her. That would be insane publicity and would force trump to also come on the show. Imagine the hype

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Trump's not an antivaxxer either. I also don't think he intends to tear her apart. It won't be easy though.

0

Amok

1 year ago

Kamala going on antivaxxer Joe Rogan's podcast, risking an epic humiliation or confrontation and being torn apart on social media afterwards? lol hell no.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Agree, I mean, there is a potential downside, but she's got to do something to improve her stnading with young male voters.

0

Speculo

1 year ago

She is going. Because she's already losing. There is no downside, she's losing in all swings. So if she does nothing: she loses. If she goes to Joe. Maybe she will convince a couple of independent voters. That's my humble take.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Totally

0

joshlover

1 year ago

It would be smart imo. I bet she will and Rogan will try to appear bipartisan by having them both

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not a debate.

0

PBet

1 year ago

she definitely wont do a debate against trump without a host helping her and going there 1 on 1 with rogan seems to bring little value and a huge risk to get memed all over the internet

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

She has to take a risk. She's been too cautious, and it's costing her. She's not going to cost Dems the House and lose 33/67, no interview ever hurt a Presidential nominee to that extent

0

Slade366 - 15686

1 year ago

I don't think it's that binary between Harris win/lose in terms of her starting to take risky moves. Her and Democrats still are deeply concerned about house and Senate races. She's not going to do a Hail Mary just because she's down to Trump, she and Democrats still don't want to risk losing the house which is 50/50 if she's trailing 33%/67%

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm happy to be enlightened on RCP's methodology for removing polls.

0

badatthis

1 year ago

I'm gladly holdin my 1.5+ with these prices. Most people don't really understand how RCP avg changes, how polls are added and removed. You can see it by reading the comments.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Knowing how guys are, I'd say the smart money would be on dick.

0

Tom.Cruise

1 year ago

do we need to see dick and balls for yes? or would a blur suffice?

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This changed my mind. If Kamala might go on too, then he'd have to interview Trump.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVTlsSrXg_c&t=301s

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVTlsSrXg_c&t=301s

0

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The way I'm reading it, a blur would suffice as long as it's obvious that it's covering that up. Also, it could be two lesbians, but the same conditions apply.

1

Tom.Cruise

1 year ago

do we need to see dick and balls for yes? or would a blur suffice?

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This reminds me of dealing with RealClearPolitics on the weekly bolling bets.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Lol Mojo site changed the domestic number from $18,893,642 to $14,117,291, removed international, and global is now the previous domestic. Not that it matters, of course. Dumb site...

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think it was like a coiled spring. We were behind a sell wall forever

1

addicts

1 year ago

this uptick made me realize how illiquid this market is

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what she said.

3

MichaelBurryd

1 year ago

coming in hot

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I keep asking too. I am kind of on the fence, so I ask out of genuine curiosity.

1

XiJinPing

1 year ago

YES holders... what are you expecting to happen tomorrow that will resolve this market?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So if it is only accredited investors, would that count?

1

HouseAlwaysWins

1 year ago

yes, it will resolve after the public is able to receive these tokens.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why doesn't the yes side propose a resolution if they're saying it's settled?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Big, if true: de5nuts 1.8K No 9h ago As a former top Yes holder and someone who's traded this market for a few months Yes holders should just be aware that the WLFI team is aware of the market and are prone to shenanigans. I don't think the volatility is over, if you hold size be careful but I'm still in spirit with the Yes team.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I heard they had to wait months. Did he get them?

0

duckduck

1 year ago

hey man my bud paid 200 for trump sneakers

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So at what stage. would the yes side propose a resolution? What needs to happen first?

0

Vulture

1 year ago

Rules are somewhat ambiguous, but the spirit of the bet is satisfied. Trump IS involved in the launch of a cryptocurrency. NO-side may win on technicality, but their arguments are dubious. If the WLFI contract is live, then it's arbitrary to claim that deployment implies buyers receiving their coins. This is not a airdrop market. Claims that Trump must be involved in operational or technical role are even more ridiculous. He has no relevant technical competence and busy with a campaign for the most powerful seat in the world. If this market was about him having operational or technical role, then price action would look very different. YES would never even reach 10%.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So what has to happen for someone to propose a resolution then?

0

Yeueu

1 year ago

It's so over for no bros

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@enderone thank you!

1

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2221441025/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs domestic weekend $14,117,291 😱😱😱

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not fair. He was also doing it to sell trading cards and worthless shares of stock.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Let's face it folks, Trump's 2024 run was just an elaborate scam to rug a poly shitcoin market.

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But there is some sort of catch? 16-19 is still at 96%

0

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2221441025/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs domestic weekend $14,117,291 😱😱😱

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Whaaat....

0

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2221441025/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs domestic weekend $14,117,291 😱😱😱

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mountainman thanks!

1

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Well I’ll be damned. Top 2 no holder just bought all me shares! Arrrgh 🏴‍☠️

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think the book is called "The Art of the Deal." lol

0

NIGGA

1 year ago

The guide to say ABSOLUTELY NOTHING while speaking incessantly.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

totally

0

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

Imagine how braindead you have to be to think anything these idiots are saying is important

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can someone explain the purpose of that? Why would they not just sell some of their "No" shares to reduce their risk. I mean I get it if the shares are super cheap, but they weren't.

1

Meow.Zedong

1 year ago

Well I’ll be damned. Top 2 no holder just bought all me shares! Arrrgh 🏴‍☠️

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I would love a market about projecting Chinese GDP growth.

0

HouseAlwaysWins

1 year ago

real question, why is polymarket so popular in China according to google analytics? doesnt this mean we should have more chinese related markets?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's a good idea

0

HouseAlwaysWins

1 year ago

real question, why is polymarket so popular in China according to google analytics? doesnt this mean we should have more chinese related markets?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

我也觉得

0

JIYUAN

1 year ago

我們已經知道川普及其家族就虛擬貨幣的行為是真正的行騙，但基於政治的倫理，他無法「部署」（deployment）也無法真正地發行代幣。愛來自台灣，No一定勝利！！！

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

天呢

0

我喜欢你哦

1 year ago

we got away with murder

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does anyone know how far into the video it was?

0

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

link? lol

0

TwistedFate

1 year ago

terrifier 3 ends with a now confirmed 18 999 999 gross during the opening weekend, congrats!

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

correction the "how do you figure" waas for @Jagermaisterpl

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Well Mojo updated with 18.3M weekend (est). Nice try, guys.

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

how do you figure?

0

Duck777

1 year ago

There is still hope with final

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree

0

NIGGA

1 year ago

Cant we all just be friends

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good question, I'd like to know more about that as well

0

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

What is the difference between the sale of a token and the "deployment" of a token?

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Tell me about it...

0

addicts

1 year ago

I like the odds for yes here, but nothing ever happens.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Has anyone heard from him? I'm genuinely worried about him.

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

I'm missing chad though :'(

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

yeah, this is going to get even uglier in that respect for this particular market.

0

0xffffffff

1 year ago

wow so much hatred here in comments..

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mrkangaroo, thanks nice t have a backup in case my notifications don't work.

0

YoungGriff

1 year ago

NOTHING EVER HAPPENS

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

In that case, he's selling.

0

asdfvergvd

1 year ago

@untilquick-wittedsag joe rogan is here guys

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's right!

1

YoungGriff

1 year ago

NOTHING EVER HAPPENS

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ikr, did everyone suddenly come to their senses?

0

Frozencomet

1 year ago

comment section kinda dead this week huh

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there any other kind?

0

TheNoobBeaver

1 year ago

Dark maga ?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@tsybka, if that is what it takes to make you happy, then you're a sad little man. Pleasure meeting you

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Don't know, but makes me feel a bit better

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But he is afraid to debate a

1

sharky🦈🦈🦈

1 year ago

no way. It would be ant-climatic for after the election. Trump is a guy who goes big and isn't a soyboy!

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@tsybka@tsybka, also I tend to notice that the people who pnl shame others when they are doing well, are often not doing well later on. Maybe it's karma, or maybe it's their ego. We'll see how you do. Seeing as how you have well over 90% of your account on one high-risk bet, I'm sure that won't apply to you.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Don't know, but makes me feel a bit better

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@tsybkaWow, ad hominem attacks. Let's go back to reading class, shall we? "Makes me feel better" is different from saying "I only focus on whether 50-Pence buys." See "only" means I don't focus on anything else, but if that was the case, why would I own yes shares already?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Don't know, but makes me feel a bit better

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

lol. me too

0

CYQ

1 year ago

I have done that more than once

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Don't know, but makes me feel a bit better

0

0x190d87b2a265fbC712036E798AD504AA2AB76A43-1728775884213

1 year ago

50 pence you buy now 10,000$ of yes? What did you know?

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's Terrifier 3, no one's expecting this to win Best Picture

0

PickleRick

1 year ago

This is opening to $17.4M. Heard it here first

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not sure what you mean? You're saying you're basing it on where Clinton and Biden were at in mid-October?

0

SDfasadsfadsfads

1 year ago

In the last two presidential elections, on RCP he gained +1 (Clinton) and 1.3 (Biden). If you bet on this historical trend 0.5-0.9 is your bet.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No

0

Sadio

1 year ago

am i winning?

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Your mom has twice the liquidity, better odds, and is certainly doable

0

WillSmith

1 year ago

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/Defiant_Update/status/1844068113450762423

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm sure they go antiquing together every Sunday.

0

Glepp

1 year ago

Joe Roagan and Elon Musk are close friends, and they probably have a close connection to DJT aswell. I dont see any reason why JRE episode with Trump wont happen.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good point

0

Donkov

1 year ago

I think one of the reasons its more unlikely to happen is because Rogan is not interested in shallow 1 hour conversations. Just look at the Lex borefest with Trump.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

and then he sometimes raises the prices on them

0

H4RE

1 year ago

Yup one tweet from Elon swinging this is wild, there's hundreds of people that put $50,000 deposits down on Tesla roadsters waiting 7 years now lmao

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which totally won't explode in a flood

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Exactly, I can reply safely now because I'm operating my self-driving car.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Exactly, I can reply safely now because I'm operating my self-driving car.

0

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

it's confirmed guys. elon is never wrong about a deadline

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what she said

1

Eyebrows

1 year ago

Is the pump over yet

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sorry, that dialogue gave me a flashback to my wedding night...

1

dioretar

1 year ago

“I don’t know, maybe,” responded Rogan with a somewhat sheepish look, to which Bet-David responded, “Looks like you got something…” “Maybe,” repeated Rogan, adding, “At a certain point in time.”

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there market manipulation for this market, or are you just speaking in general?

2

0x6b07D80f00a65bE25C8FF1bA57063e5e09D85F59-1722856566954

1 year ago

Join the discord against market manipulation on Polymarket here: https://discord.gg/sVhhfgQF. Let's report them to the CFTC and make them take action against UMA and Kevin Chan

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Agree, if betfair is not crypto-based, I think it's bc crypto bros are +10-+15 in favor of Trump

0

BuckMySalls

1 year ago

i'm a kamala bull but i don't understand why this isn't at least at 5050 after trump flipped her on betfair and is about to do the same on polymarket+will get a short-term sugar high from the vp debate

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He's selling

0

betyonko

1 year ago

@Scorn4Sega are you an insider? A 30K YES order? Really? And account created today? Very fishy.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He's selling though.

0

Milktoast

1 year ago

I'm not gonna post it because I want to protect his privacy, but Scorn4Sega, the biggest yes holder does live in Washington D.C. I was fairly certain he wasn't an insider because he's a rich techbro but the more i saw of his instagram left me with questions. He has multiple pics/vids at the white house, one at the white house bowling alley, which only white house staff are allowed to reserve, and one meeting Obama on the white house lawn directly after the presidential helicopter landed. still holding a little no because $11k is peanuts to this guy but idk, i reduced size but still fairly confident on no.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/18/joe-rogan-podcast-kamala-trump/75276328007/

0

satori

1 year ago

lmaooo source?

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree, but what's the doge reference?

0

betyonko

1 year ago

This could be a DOGE thing. Don't be so sure it will happen.

What will Kamala say during Univision town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdvHSwQswoI

0

Jpp30

1 year ago

yo where can i watch?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Now I'm seeing 1.8, I kept refreshing, but it didn't show at first.

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

Pew pew pew

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks, it's still 2.0 though or is there some other shoe to drop?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

Pew pew pew

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What just happened? Which poll dropped?

0

papasmurf

1 year ago

Pew pew pew

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not an average, bro

0

schottchris

1 year ago

i expect 5-6 polls this week with an average of 49-49. will that be enough to knock this average down 2%? hopefully it pushed some of those harris +6from 2 weeks ago

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

also, if you look at the sentence, the phrase "directly" depicting is not modifying "video." It is modifying "sexual acts."

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If it's blurred out, that obviously means the video depicts it. Otherwise, why would it be blurred out?

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, the video depicts them even if it's blurred out. How are you reading they can't be blurred?

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

it says "directly depicting." If it's censored the video was obviously depicting it.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Show me where on the rules it says that.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ask Jeffrey Epstein

0

SpeedTracer

1 year ago

Why would a mail prostitute release it publicly as opposed to ransom it to every wealthy person in it who doesn't want it exposed?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That must be rough; you had the special insight how to get rich, but don't have the balls to make a bet, what a tragedy.

0

andrewmarch

1 year ago

theres allot of dumb money in polymarket sense lib tards discovered it, I see great opportunities to make money

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How is this relevant? Do a bunch of degenerate gamblers (myself included) have special collective insight? How many electoral votes can Trump win from here?

0

thomas2006

1 year ago

Trump is up 8 on Poly, Harris is sliding.

Will Elon do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl before election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Elon is Trump's Hawk Tuak Girl.

8

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What makes you so sure it will be easy? There might be hundreds or thousands of tapes.

0

DrAss

1 year ago

Very easy money for no at these odds

Texas Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Senate seats are every six years, bro

5

Tac1776

1 year ago

If the seat didnt flip in 2020 and 2022 why would it flip now

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How come?

0

thomas2006

1 year ago

Trump is up 8 on Poly, Harris is sliding.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Actually Siena was released on the 19th last month. Have we heard anything indicating it might be released by the 11th?

0

Speculo

1 year ago

True, that's because there is a Siena College (usually bad for Harris) and a bad Rasmussen for sure in the pipe.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They never answer me when I ask why they are certain it won't release. One guy did actually, but he kept making the strawman argument of an A lister would kill to keep it quiet. It doesn't need to be an A lister.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

100% chance a tape is released, only question is if it drops in time.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If he'd been buying tokens instead of brass balled 30k purchases, he'd be rich. Not that Im to judge, just sayin

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad, buy tokens not shares if you want to win this

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is the dude buying tokens?

0

Phoenix777

1 year ago

CHAD is a chance for all YES holders to turn it around

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is crazier than RCP

0

Justifax

1 year ago

It is what it is. The result shouldn't be surprising. The DVM is a flawed mechanism and the second biggest topholder on NO dislikes it as much as everyone else. We should all advocate for Polymarket to drop UMA at the earliest time possible.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

agree

1

Justifax

1 year ago

It is what it is. The result shouldn't be surprising. The DVM is a flawed mechanism and the second biggest topholder on NO dislikes it as much as everyone else. We should all advocate for Polymarket to drop UMA at the earliest time possible.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad, buy tokens not shares if you want to win this

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

tokens or shares?

0

Secret14thKey

1 year ago

CHAD IS BUYING, IT'S NOT OVER

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How much is a ton?

0

Phoenix777

1 year ago

Whooaa CHA boy just bought a ton of YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the rumor

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Buy the rumor

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Even though I traded no, I don't think the process was fair. I feel more morally uneasy about this trade than my diddy sex tape position.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Come on guys, we don't need to all call him out

1

Nancy.Pelosi

1 year ago

RIP chad

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How long does it take for the returns to come in?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Gas prices are kinda lowest right now, so in theory we should be seeing some reveals. But they remain low for the next few hours

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://polymarket.com/profile/0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1?tab=activity

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I did. Show me what I'm misisng. Last two days almost all buys:

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Mg95, sure was, and I think in terms of facts yes is right, but that doesn't matter, the UMA count matters. Losing 75-25, if I see new facts, I change, what do you do?

0

TheGoober

1 year ago

Chad is selling and buying Yes to profit off the uncertainty. He still has most of his Yes shares.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@gauthhttps://polymarket.com/profile/0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1?tab=activity

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad is selling!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@werty1 Show me where in the last two days I'm lying

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad is selling!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I did. Show me what I'm misisng. Last two days almost all buys:

0

Kalags

1 year ago

Ok do not believe, but look at chads activity tab, he has used the sell action. Not saying that he will sell his position again, but you should check his profile after a big move in the order book.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Finding a sell in the last few days is like finding Waldo. It may be in there, but I'm tired of squinting:

0

TheGoober

1 year ago

Chad is selling and buying Yes to profit off the uncertainty. He still has most of his Yes shares.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah but when's hte last time he has

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad is selling!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad sold 3000 yes at 46.8

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad is selling!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Look at "activity" 10 minutes ago

0

TooDumbToWin

1 year ago

Nop

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes he is

0

TooDumbToWin

1 year ago

Nop

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Chad is selling!

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Should we infer that is JustKen and Chad or JustKen and maybe UMAmustbe

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Wallet count, 31 Y 19 N. 65% N 35% Y Again, just *two* wallets count for ~42% of all the ~17.6M tokens committed in this vote.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh duh got it. I was using the oracle link, thanks!

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Reinis_FRP, UMA revealed 72K for P2. He was P2 last vote as well. There are no named UMA voters that have gone p1 yet, but the dune query might not capture them.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I know the link, but how do I find it on there

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Reinis_FRP, UMA revealed 72K for P2. He was P2 last vote as well. There are no named UMA voters that have gone p1 yet, but the dune query might not capture them.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What % of votes are in

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Reinis_FRP, UMA revealed 72K for P2. He was P2 last vote as well. There are no named UMA voters that have gone p1 yet, but the dune query might not capture them.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

meaning?

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

your name is a big clue on one of them

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks! What % of the vote is in

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

Another 80k Yes votes rolling in... 65/35 and dropping for No's... where will you be this side of tomorrow?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's that mean?

0

Darkpsico

1 year ago

Chad is CR7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can someone show a Noob how to vote and how to see the vote totals. Yes, I have the linik but have no idea what to do

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have the link, but how do I see it from the link?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Wallet count is now 29 YES and 15 NO.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No, I'm asking how many tokens he bought, not how many shares.

0

TooDumbToWin

1 year ago

And Chad is back

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks, how do you see the total votes from the link?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is he buying a lot of tokens though?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is he buying a lot of tokens though?

0

TooDumbToWin

1 year ago

And Chad is back

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is Chad buying tokens with the same aggressiveness that he is buying shares?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Your mom has twice the liquidity and better odds.

1

SylvesterStallone

1 year ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the vote count? I went to the link, but couldn't figure out how to get t the count

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the vote count?

0

sharky🦈🦈🦈

1 year ago

We dont need luck just FACTS !

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

On here or UMA?

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

Guys!!! The Yes is going down. Stop scamming!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are they winning?

0

TooDumbToWin

1 year ago

Does anyone know what happens if the early request vote wins again? Do we start again with a new proposal?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do we track the voting? I am wanting to buy shares but i want to see the count first. I know the link but how to find the vote count from there?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you see the vote count once you are here: https://oracle.uma.xyz/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you get to the part where it shows the current vote count and how many voted. I went here: https://oracle.uma.xyz/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is he also buying tokens, enough to deter the other side?

0

RizzMuffin

1 year ago

Our lord savior Chad keeps buying. We shall follow

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You are a great soldier and leader. You were literally an inspiration.

0

RememberAmalek

1 year ago

what abt me man i'm the foot soldier in all of this chad is just getting the rake

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm worried, couldn't a whale still buy enough tokens to force a No?

0

Shayku

1 year ago

I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Leads for November or for September?

0

Donkov

1 year ago

YES vote currently leads, but is not enough for a resolution.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He seems to be pretty smart about risk management. He didn't have that much of his portfolio writing on this. I think it's best if some of the posters refrain from insulting him. The only reason he'd have to worry about this is if it got personal. I don't remember his cost basis, but 53k shares, while huge to someone like me, is a drop in the bucket I'm thinking

0

DFK

1 year ago

based on his contribution to the UMA discussion, I'd say he is pretty laconic. "I have still not seen an invading force" did he deign enlighten us in his rock solid 3 lines argumentation.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's good advice.

0

HaterzLoserz

1 year ago

Reason is telling me to stay out, emotions are telling me to buy yes for the lulz, better judgement has prevailed for now, but this may change at any moment. Dont get too excited though, and dont risk what you cant afford to lose (chad)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Here's to your health; that's smart

0

DFK

1 year ago

this market is seriously a roller coaster. I'm so glad I'm on the sidelines. My health first.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You don't like the simulation we are living in?

2

Darkpsico

1 year ago

So the market will never end ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We'll do our best, sir.

3

FamilyCapital

1 year ago

Like I said before, I expect from them to reach 60c for YES, tonight. Don't disappoint me.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He has 2 million tokens?

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

He did, he’s already got 2m shares

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does it look like they will succeed?

0

EastBoat

1 year ago

In November, Uma Whale attempted to make it P4. This is why I say current uma holders are dishonest.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

of UMA or these shares?

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

He did, he’s already got 2m shares

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thank you

1

UndefeatedElectionForecaster

1 year ago

chad stop buying yes here and buy UMA

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

are we in trouble?

0

KanyeTruther

1 year ago

Chad pls come to discord

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe his wife won't let him.

1

Frozencomet

1 year ago

as they say in my homeland, put up or shut up

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, how'd they manage that

0

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

They figured out a way to drop the atlas intel poll without shifting the average. I’m actually impressed.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thomas Jefferson-- during his gamer years...

1

Rueben

1 year ago

The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of Noobs.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I can live with that, given my current cost basis.

1

Rueben

1 year ago

As Honorary Chairman of the 50/50 Committee, i hereby declare this market 50/50

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@njjjbobtheVIII, let's avoid ad hominem attacks on people, agree with @Art Vandalay.

0

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol sounds fun but could be entrapment

0

Car

1 year ago

"or filmed at a property he owns" Wtf is this lmao

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Plus you get to have sex...

1

PolyRig-Fried

1 year ago

true, but for $32,034 Vol. ?

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@upriverrealist You're forgetting that probably most of his "freak offs" weren't with A list celebs but with sex workers, gorupies, etc. He didn't have 1,000 bottles of baby oil just for Jennifer Lopez and company. This was something he did on a compulsive basis with who was available. In this case, it could be something far more legal than the R Kelly tape. It could even be sex between consenting adults who aren't famous (other than Diddy). What's to stop that tape from getting out? You're conflating some of his guests as being all of his guests.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How could it not? Ever heard of the R Kelly tape?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You are doing the Lord's work!

0

RememberAmalek

1 year ago

Already done, go ahead :)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

have they shown the vote count? Sorry, I'm newer to this.

0

BibiNetanyahu

1 year ago

tbf this market should be even. until the result is shown.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the count?

0

BibiNetanyahu

1 year ago

tbf this market should be even. until the result is shown.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You are here to spread FUD

0

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

takes time to update

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No it does not, when the window starts it is

0

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

takes time to update

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is a lie

0

Otter-KING

1 year ago

Looks like someone proposed no

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Look at RememberAmalek's account. She is telling you the truth. Then look at "Nutzilla" you chooe who you want to believe

1

RememberAmalek

1 year ago

Nobody dispute yet, the more time we give November to resolve the better it is for us!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is misinformation. Your account only has this trade and you know full well they post it on erhe

1

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

you have 1.5h to dispute "No"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If it was submitted, it would be o here

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Show me where, screenshot

0

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

"No" has being proposed. No disputes so far

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the count

0

abdendriel

1 year ago

Some Too Early voters now have the info needed to vote yes. No is unchanged

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Did I walk through some time portal and end up in 1938? What's with all the all the Jew bashing?

2

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He asks a good quesiton, why don't you own the libs and make a bunch of money. That way, we can't fund use it to fund ANTIFA or turn your kids trans.

2

andrewmarch

1 year ago

theres allot of dumb money in polymarket sense lib tards discovered it, I see great opportunities to make money

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree. The Supreme Court says you can make them have a debate (it'll be past the deadline though)

0

io9000

1 year ago

You should be president

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You okay, bro?

1

io9000

1 year ago

Please stop

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I thought he might have said it after the debate. Maybe he's retiring Tampon Tim.

0

midastouch

1 year ago

No Tampon Tim…. Ffs

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Whenever I see someone with those shares for half a second my brain thinks you have 2.8 million or 2.8 billion shars lol.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

Border x23, Million x14. I have no more cash, so I give you the numbers ;)

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I just came in to look (I sat this one out).He said almost everything. How l'ong was the speech?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's possible JustKen might be wanting to hedge with some cheap yes shares.

0

BibiNetanyahu

1 year ago

clear manipulation by "NO" Holders, the fact that "JustKen" is buying YES shares proves my point.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Besides Rasmussen, what other polls do you think we might get before the deadline, if any?

0

mombil

1 year ago

Another bias: This time RCP takes the "Combined Presidential Vote " for Emerson (only +1 not +2) last time they took the "Select choice" poll which had her up 2 instead of 3 with the combined presidential vote they are using this time, it doesnt get any more biased than this

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I would say it increases the odds. Plus, it's well-know Iran is working on a nuke and is probably getting close, according to some sources. They might figure it's better to thrown down now rather than later. Also, Iran hasn't really displayed a significant amount of "shock and awe" to deter the Israelis, IMO.

0

h00r11z11n2003

1 year ago

Wondering whether Iranian attack on Israel just now increases or decreases odds of full invasion. If anything, I'd argue increases: Israel has a greater argument for establishing its own defense by force and can argue it would expect Hezbollah attacks in event of a war with Iran which now seems likely. Yesers, don't give up hope. What we're seeing right now from Israel is not the full invasion but shaping operations for a larger movement that will involve more troops and mechanized forces. And yes, they will have to establish temporary control over parts of Southern Lebanon to accomplish this. Remember, this isn't the invasion in September market. Don't count your chickens, but don't think we have egg on our face either. It's going to be a long month.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@abdendriel - As a fellow yes holder, I think that's taking "major offensive" out of context. The condition isn't just a military offensive it has to be one "intended to establish control over part of Lebanese territory (paraphrasing a bit)." I think a good analogy for this could be the US bombing campaign that occured before troops were sent into liberate Kuwait. The round the clock bombing of Saddam's command and control facilities were not an invasion. That didn't happen until later on (I think it was weeks after) in a separate phase. That's what makes things more ambiguous than a lot of Yes holders realize.

0

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I apologize. I mistyped (flashback to an earlier week) if I said 1.0-1.4, I meant 1.5-1.9

0

mombil

1 year ago

depends on what polls RCP randomly leaves up and which get dropped after just 1 week...

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I never understood that either. It's like that also with the electoral odds. Dems 155+ is significauly cheaper than 105+. Why?

0

Speculo

1 year ago

How can 1-1.4 be cheaper than 0-0.9 lol ? To get to 0-0.9 you need to go through 1-1.4.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But here's a challenge to anyone: name a Vice Presidential debate that significantly changed or altered the course of a Presidential campaign. I don't think anyone can. The biggest debate disaster was Bentsen vs Quayle in the '88 debates. It didn't stop Dukakis from losing in an electoral landslide even though Quayle never completely recovered from it.

0

genghisbrain

1 year ago

Harris over 2.5 would be higher than she's ever been. After Walz's disastrous performance, the hurricane crisis, and Iran-Israel escalating, I don't see how there's any chance she reaches these levels in a week. I'll sell at 99.9% No.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not saying it's priced in. I'm saying there's usually a lag time of at least a week before it shows up in the polls.

0

genghisbrain

1 year ago

Harris over 2.5 would be higher than she's ever been. After Walz's disastrous performance, the hurricane crisis, and Iran-Israel escalating, I don't see how there's any chance she reaches these levels in a week. I'll sell at 99.9% No.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

exactly, advantage to Vance, but nothing that's a game changer.

0

Caligulas.dog

1 year ago

You have a very low definition of "disaster". Polls basically showed them being tied.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh yeah, learned that the hard way.

0

Speculo

1 year ago

In this market you will quickly learn to never say never ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

His buddy?

0

CYQ

1 year ago

It's a forking Scam from JustScam and his buddy if this is NO.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgtfEX2Pka0

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, but it won't affect this week, and VP debates don't usually matter. Here's an oldie but goodie (one of the most famous debate moments when Dukakis's running mate, slammed Dan Quayle, but Bush still won):

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, but it won't affect this week, and VP debates don't usually matter. Here's an oldie but goodie (one of the most famous debate moments when Dukakis's running mate, slammed Dan Quayle, but Bush still won):

0

bbman1214

1 year ago

JD winning this debate

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I haven't checked Rasmussen today. I guess I'll do that in a bit. Guess you always have to budget for the fact that they want it to go closer to 1.5-1.9 vs the fact that the momentum is with Harris.

0

Randomchooser

1 year ago

Reuters and most likely Rasmussen updates will decide it. I expect a few points in Trump's facour that will result in 1.5/1.9 range, expecially if they won't drop any pollsters and do not add any new entries.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So much harder now. I used to work on the assumption that they'd have enough shame to kick all polls off that started on the same day.

0

mombil

1 year ago

If they drop the Atlas Intel it will update to exactly 2.5 👀 But they may keep that poll forever

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

anyone know what's up?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Control would be less proven by tactics and more by what happens after the attack. For example, Japan's raid on Pearl Harbor would not have qualified if they just bombed our base and headed home, as they did. However, when they occupied the Phillipines, Wake Island, etc. That was an invasion. Probably will have to see if they start garrisoning these towns, just a guess, I coudl be way off

0

abdendriel

1 year ago

Pearl Harbour was a military offensive. Before the planes entered US airspace, the offensive had been launched. Americans did not witness the launch from Japan.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They'll build a little shrine to their little Atlas Shrugged poll

0

mombil

1 year ago

If they drop the Atlas Intel it will update to exactly 2.5 👀 But they may keep that poll forever

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What are the factors you're expecting

0

Randomchooser

1 year ago

Reuters and most likely Rasmussen updates will decide it. I expect a few points in Trump's facour that will result in 1.5/1.9 range, expecially if they won't drop any pollsters and do not add any new entries.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Given the volatile situation, I don't see it as too much of a stretch. Iran's involvement can escalate things and give the Israeli's a pretext for even more aggressive action.

0

sleepyjoesleeper

1 year ago

The spread between this market and the November market is completely out of line. Fact: Israel entered Lebanon before Oct. Unclear: Intent to occupy any part of territory. The only way the November market can resolve Yes and this market resolves No is if it can be shown that their intent has changed, or Israel exit and reenter with new intentions, both of which are a stretch

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's why I asked :)

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

The whales decide everything. They can say Israel invaded Russia if they want to. It's mostly a scam, you just have to figure out how to be on the right side of it.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are there any better polls you'd recommend that are out or coming up?

0

LouisMarquis

1 year ago

Be aware that all 9 polls so far have been Osborn-sponsored (or Osborn adjacent). Just be aware.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's more complicated than that, as you said. This one is more about intent. If Israel seizes a town as part of a raid or search and destroy mission that's not considered the same as taking territory for the purposes of annexing it or brining it under Israel's suzerainty.

0

Mr. House

1 year ago

Can some one explain me this that I mation before about "I just don't get how is posible to be resolve as NO if another market is about Israeli forces entering libano with the same dead line and is resolved as YES"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I was just joking, but now I'll give a serious answer. In my opinion, and not everyone is honest enough to admit this. Both sides have some credible arguments. Obviously it's possible the Israelis do intend to establish control in part of Lebanon. On the other hand, it's possible they don't or, another scenario that could be a No: it's found that it didn't escalate until later. Also, there will likely be a dispute about the outcome, which, per UMA resolution, will be settled by voting via staked tokens. So why am I long? Because it's a 50-50 shot, and yes is offering us 8-1 odds. I can think of no better argument.

2

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We have fun people like Hexphil. :)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't get your meaning. How would there not have been contact wihen Napoleon invaded?

0

abdendriel

1 year ago

When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Say it ain't so, Oprah.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Tape being shopped around with another famous A Lister. https://x.com/theprovince/status/1841553239285616672

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We have fun people like Hexphil. :)

1

PolyRig-Fried

1 year ago

The best argument to buy yes with a source?

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there a defense industry plant that benefits from it there? Why Michigan?

0

Wyman-Manderly

1 year ago

Because the rally takes place in Michigan.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We're a big tent.

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

oh no the actual dumbest user on the site is on my side .. what did i overlook

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sounds good, but how do you figure we can't get worse?

0

Donkov

1 year ago

For real, at worst this should go to 50/50. People were buying as if the voting was resolving 90% NO.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If someone is a whale, can they change their UMA vote? Sorry, newer to the process

0

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

but the Friday thing makes me nervous

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you see the case for and against? I keep going back to Osirak during the Iran-Iraq War when Israel unilaterally knocked out one of Saddam's reactors.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also VP debate losses are rarely decisive. The greatest VP debate victory was Dukakis's VP did this (spoiler alert: Bush still won):

0

genghisbrain

1 year ago

Harris over 2.5 would be higher than she's ever been. After Walz's disastrous performance, the hurricane crisis, and Iran-Israel escalating, I don't see how there's any chance she reaches these levels in a week. I'll sell at 99.9% No.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not so partisan as to say JD Vance didn't win, but I don't think it was a disaster.

1

genghisbrain

1 year ago

Harris over 2.5 would be higher than she's ever been. After Walz's disastrous performance, the hurricane crisis, and Iran-Israel escalating, I don't see how there's any chance she reaches these levels in a week. I'll sell at 99.9% No.

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you see the case for and against? I keep going back to Osirak during the Iran-Iraq War when Israel unilaterally knocked out one of Saddam's reactors.

1

Remontada

1 year ago

This one is a head scratcher.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

on P4?

1

MyLossIsYourGain

1 year ago

concensus reached

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Dude, I'm on your side now

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

The world's premiere foreign affairs journal has called it an INVASION! "Yesterday, it took the next step—a ground invasion into Lebanon that unleashed a full-scale assault on Hezbollah—all while facing new direct retaliation from Iran, with nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched at Israel this week." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/where-will-israels-multifront-war-end

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Care to explain your reasoning?

0

itsok

1 year ago

Not even 1% chance, Happy to buy 10,000 @ .70 NO!

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not opening for me.

0

Wook-Capital-Fund-I

1 year ago

https://x.com/mjtruthultra/status/1841636377282154855?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yesterday's October, brah

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

The world's premiere foreign affairs journal has called it an INVASION! "Yesterday, it took the next step—a ground invasion into Lebanon that unleashed a full-scale assault on Hezbollah—all while facing new direct retaliation from Iran, with nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched at Israel this week." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/where-will-israels-multifront-war-end

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That could happen. Hezbollah could retaliate or Iran could do something, so Israel will respond in kind by escalating.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

So it's like, we're just going in for a few raids and then oops, now it's become an invasion, nobody could have known?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It'll be our little secret.

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

Don't let the frontline Hezbollah troops know that I'm dead!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

win

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is that what it would take for yes to iwn

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is that what it would take for yes to iwn

0

MyLossIsYourGain

1 year ago

chad should buy more since there is a possibility of next 56% all voting for P2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wasn't he in no all along? Sorry, a bit new to this

0

jayminho

1 year ago

Ohhhh madder frolikz. @justken is in NO…. Ooooohhh noooo

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can someone explain what's going on. I'm new to this process, sorry.

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

Shit I saw Chad going form +4k to -130k XDDDD

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Me too

0

GoogleHomeMini

1 year ago

Can you elaborate on whats happening? Bit out of the loop

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would they not be revealed (newer to this)?

0

Shayku

1 year ago

It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which time zone is it showing on yours. I hovered over the beginning and it is 1:07 Eastern Time October 1

0

willo2

1 year ago

the chart literally does show trading before the deadline.

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/eigenlayer

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If it traded before the deadline why does the chart not show trading until after? Because the aforementioned transactions were not public:

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If it traded before the deadline why does the chart not show trading until after? Because the aforementioned transactions were not public:

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Fatman1 How would P4 affect the price action in the short-term?

0

Xzz

1 year ago

UMA will most likely vote P4. There is no where near enough information yet to determine that IDF soldiers stepped foot on Lebanese soil. P4 will cause the 'Yes' holders to panic. This is going to be interesting.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Who's that?

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 year ago

fatduck bought 58,851 No at 34.9¢ ($20,512)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What caused the sudden spike?

0

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1236008538791477349/1236015032077389937

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

From the Friend.Tech UMA dispute on Discord, which dealt with the same issue:

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

From the Friend.Tech UMA dispute on Discord, which dealt with the same issue:

1

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, exactly the "it" is some trial transactions that were neither annoounced nor open to the general public.

0

Chrome

1 year ago

but... but... its on the blockchain!

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Do the rules say they have to announce it by September 30? Yes or No?

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm on it, but it says I don't have permission to participate in the evidence-rationale discussion. How does one get permission?

0

PolymaREKT

1 year ago

Google UMA Discord

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So for UMA, can a side just vote whatever they want and get their way regardless of the rules?

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But wouldn't that favor the Yes side since they have more money committed to this? How's it bullish for us.

0

ANONYMOUS.

1 year ago

What are the odds this $UMA price spike in the past day is related to these markets. That would be hella bullish for NO right?

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Do the rules say they have to announce it by September 30? Yes or No?

2

happyfriend

1 year ago

nuclear-grade cope coming from this guy

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How is it cope? Why do you shit all over your position? You say that any time someone makes a valid point.

1

happyfriend

1 year ago

nuclear-grade cope coming from this guy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why's that? Sorry, I'm newer to this.

0

ANONYMOUS.

1 year ago

What are the odds this $UMA price spike in the past day is related to these markets. That would be hella bullish for NO right?

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

And how come whenever I or anyone else asks, we never get an answer? Can someone tell me something about htat

0

tony77

1 year ago

https://dashboard.tenderly.co/tx/mainnet/0x30aedb6aea00fb027c72be5f471c8e96915ff6b87bf295f2d9f1085142aba905?trace=0.1.7.0.0.2

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, the fact that they opened it up for transfers between certain parties is irrelevant to the rules as stated. Were these open to the public or to certain individuals?

1

tony77

1 year ago

disableTransferRestrictions called before midnight

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How does one know if they are a libtard cuck or a lib cucktard? Asking for a friend...

2

andrewmarch

1 year ago

theres allot of dumb money in polymarket sense lib tards discovered it, I see great opportunities to make money

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How did your friend do that?

0

0xfb67afb55ab7dcaf744c67f8a25bc4a30aca4a48

1 year ago

my friend "TiceNits" turned $5 into a third of a million dollars on this website. You will never replicate his success if you burn the last of your very scant dollars in this market!

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Trump got him for less than that :)

0

BoeJiden420

1 year ago

Just happy i got vance at like 27 cents lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If there is a definitive sign that Israel intends to establish de facto or de jure control over part of Lebanon, please show it to us.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

Just out of curiosity, how was the Russia-Ukraine market solved back then, if there was one? After all, there was never an invasion, it was just a special operation.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@doglover69 Actually, no, the Russians said that, but it was obvious that a Russian victory would have involved A) Ukranian territory being annexed, B) Russia extending control over part of the Ukraine, such as the Donbass region.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There was the clear intention to control part of the Ukraine. Not all violent incursions are invasions.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thank you!

0

1mperator17

1 year ago

didnt you learn in school not to use wikipedia as a source

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why is Wikipedia being touted as a reputable source?

0

McLarry

1 year ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There was the clear intention to control part of the Ukraine. Not all violent incursions are invasions.

4

McLarry

1 year ago

Just out of curiosity, how was the Russia-Ukraine market solved back then, if there was one? After all, there was never an invasion, it was just a special operation.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I miss Kamala, she knows how to stay on message.

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Get to China

0

Glorp

1 year ago

Cmon man get to the border rant

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't know, my brain literally left my body and wrote me a letter saying, "Fuck you for making me listen to this,"

0

bbman1214

1 year ago

did million hit?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm so done betting on Trump speeches. They're so erratic and unpredictable

3

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's a shame you couldn't be here today, President Trump.

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can we talk about trade? Like China...

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I never have called Trump boring, but I am bored. I'm usually outraged, annoyed, yet mildly amused.

6

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

LOL

1

idfkanything

1 year ago

the edibles are hittin hard

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They should approve this as an over-the-counter sleep aid. I might literally use this if I can't sleep.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Dawg I'm falling asleep to this shit

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

True, but I can't sell sometimes when I want

0

R13

1 year ago

Website is glitching don’t worry it’s there

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wasn't this speech supposed to be about the "inflation and agriculture"?

1

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's worse is it isn't letting me sell when I want because it doesn't show me as having them

0

ElDorado

1 year ago

bought TRANS but it does not show in my position only in history. WTF

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm having that problem with several of my trades.

0

ElDorado

1 year ago

bought TRANS but it does not show in my position only in history. WTF

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is the dullest speech I've ever heard him give. This is like ASMR.

4

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, let me know if you figure it out

1

TheGoober

1 year ago

what is bro talking about?? 😭

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I arrived late, has he said China, and if so, how many times?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh wow, no way!

0

n/a

1 year ago

LMAO @HsB34sgg got scared and sold everything

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

JustKen is on our side, last I checked.

0

NUTZILLA

1 year ago

he lost so many times you simps won't believe

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not an accident that there are two different bets: 1. Israel ENTERS Lebanon by the end of September. 2. Ours

0

0xf555BBccF9549fA2Fb513140744dFBE0f057b2D5-1720199302797

1 year ago

Yes, you lost your mind. Official statement from IDF that they entered 3 villages in Lebanon. Meiss El Jabal, Kfarkela and Ayt Al Shaab.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No, that's not what the rules say. Not all shooting and ground combat is a invasion. There's a difference between an invasion and a raid.

0

McLarry

1 year ago

Just to be clear, and so there's no flip afterward, if there are Israeli troops in Lebanon right now, then this market is a yes, right Ken? Not that you're looking for another narrative change later

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also, they have a guy named Chad on their side, so there's that.

0

BiggestBidenFan

1 year ago

Those are not official sources. Peepeepoopoo420 in chat said they invaded and he's more trustworthy

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

As soon as I finish with your mom

0

Forklifter

1 year ago

just put the fries in the bag bro

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would someone dump then pump after?

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

, DUDE, I made $1,000 bucks today calling the invasion WAY in advance. I would have made way more if I didn't place 2/3 of my stack in the November market. Anyway, I hedged. Whatever. Good luck dumping 'n pumping. lol What a way to live a life. Wow!

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://bitcoinworld.co.in/polymarket-yes-bettors-to-lose-on-eigen-airdrop/

0

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why are you yes now?

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

First transfer was after midnight: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xec7fc31cb60731e753a322d05935ba275b474b1128888b412ea9460ff4c35c70

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Scout: It says, "Oops! An invalid Txn hash has been entered: 0x0c8d2d2bdc428144a83989257cf3f42827cbd83b52ec40076e11d24983

0

donny

1 year ago

it's NO for eigen. Congrats!!!

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

As of October 1, 2024, several crypto airdrops that were anticipated to occur by September 30 have seen significant developments. The Eigenlayer Foundation's EIGEN token unlock occurred at 9:00 p.m. Pacific Time on September 30, just one minute past the settlement deadline, resulting in losses for Polymarket bettors who wagered on the token unlocking before the deadline. Hamster Kombat's token, which was airdropped on September 26, has plummeted nearly 60% since its listing, with users expressing dissatisfaction over token allocations and community engagement declining sharply. Other projects, such as MemeFi, X Empire, and TapSwap, are gearing up for their airdrops in October, with specific eligibility criteria and token distribution plans in place. These airdrops are expected to attract significant attention and participation in the coming weeks.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not sure if you noticed this. @Donny posted it:

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks, you have the link?

0

donny

1 year ago

it's NO for eigen. Congrats!!!

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not sure if this will help you at all, but here it its @Donny originally posted:

0

Axios

1 year ago

Hey guys, check this out. "On chain" transactions from 100 DAYS AGO. Why didn't this resolve earlier? Because it wasn't live for trading or swapping. Or unlocked. https://etherscan.io/txs?a=0xec53bf9167f50cdeb3ae105f56099aaab9061f83&p=2000

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

courtesy of @donny

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

As of October 1, 2024, several crypto airdrops that were anticipated to occur by September 30 have seen significant developments. The Eigenlayer Foundation's EIGEN token unlock occurred at 9:00 p.m. Pacific Time on September 30, just one minute past the settlement deadline, resulting in losses for Polymarket bettors who wagered on the token unlocking before the deadline. Hamster Kombat's token, which was airdropped on September 26, has plummeted nearly 60% since its listing, with users expressing dissatisfaction over token allocations and community engagement declining sharply. Other projects, such as MemeFi, X Empire, and TapSwap, are gearing up for their airdrops in October, with specific eligibility criteria and token distribution plans in place. These airdrops are expected to attract significant attention and participation in the coming weeks.

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not sure if you noticed this. @Donny posted it:

0

Apsalar

1 year ago

imagine betting against YatSen. shouldn't be me

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That looks less dramatic than when America bombs a foreign country. In the late 90's America bombed Iraq all the time. It wasn't an invasion (until years lateR).

0

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

Oh WOWOW!!! Some interesting opening scenes here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9EK2bddG_Y

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He was asking a question. Also, you misspelled "allude." "Elude" means "to escape." as in, "How does one elude you in the comment section?"

6

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

You just eluded to market fixing! That's a criminal offence! Screenshot taken!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can we get Israel to control your mouth?

4

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

It currently costs about $47,630.44 to get to 99cents YES, and $396,932.05 to get to 99cents NO. Time to study the facts fast and sell all NO, and buy all YES to save your money. If you are a NO holder, the verifiable facts are not on your side.

Airdrops by September 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think so. He didn't say it in some recent speeches. Maybe if the speech were closer to there I'd bet differently

0

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

1 year ago

hey will trump say Helene tomorrow

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This happened to me on another market

0

FamilyCapital

1 year ago

only me can not sell shares in this market?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I found it, my gosh you are right. That's the first time I heard it though, but I sold my no position given that the VP debate is the same day, thanks.

0

MasterMindful

1 year ago

He said Tim Walz yesterday 5min into his rally, but again could or not happen , best of luck

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

As in which location?

0

MasterMindful

1 year ago

He said Tim Walz yesterday 5min into his rally, but again could or not happen , best of luck

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which rally was that?

0

MasterMindful

1 year ago

He said Tim Walz yesterday 5min into his rally, but again could or not happen , best of luck

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Heck with Trump and Harris; I can watch the debate you are having with yourself. I think this "you" is winning.

0

io9000

1 year ago

Anyone who doesnt think there will be another debate is mentally retarded

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Will143 judging by her career, I'd say she's pretty good at it

1

Chen1996

1 year ago

Just on Fox News: . @realDonaldTrump previews tomorrow's #VPdebate and cracks open the door on another possible presidential debate with @KamalaHarris .

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also, if Vance wins, Trump will feel even more insecure. Men like Trump don't like to look inferior to those under them.

0

Chen1996

1 year ago

Just on Fox News: . @realDonaldTrump previews tomorrow's #VPdebate and cracks open the door on another possible presidential debate with @KamalaHarris .

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If Vance blows this, the door will swing wide open.

0

Chen1996

1 year ago

Just on Fox News: . @realDonaldTrump previews tomorrow's #VPdebate and cracks open the door on another possible presidential debate with @KamalaHarris .

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh yes

0

Chen1996

1 year ago

Just on Fox News: . @realDonaldTrump previews tomorrow's #VPdebate and cracks open the door on another possible presidential debate with @KamalaHarris .

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@io9000 Trump doesn't need to worry about you. He needs to worry about independents. You won't think he looks weak no matter what he does. Not everyone thinks like you; not everyone thinks like me.

0

io9000

1 year ago

He wont give vance the last wordt because he will be live commenting on the debate. What a genius move now he doesn’t have to care about another debate: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113227471530921481

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

At the risk of sounding inappropriate, the attorney is really hot.

0

Wook-Capital-Fund-I

1 year ago

https://www.the-sun.com/entertainment/12565342/high-profile-person-pornographic-video-diddy/

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How could it not? Ever heard of the R Kelly tape?

2

FIP

1 year ago

Don't be fooled. How could such a video ever be released?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not sure I agree about how entertaining it is, but welcome back to you too!

1

Randomchooser

1 year ago

Welcome back to all the degens that love RCP heartbreaking polls! One of the funniest market ever, just one month left so it's time to have the greatest entertainment ever! GL everybody!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, 1-1.4, hmm you're often right about where this is going. Mind if I ask what makes you think her lead will shrink next week?

0

mombil

1 year ago

depends on what polls RCP randomly leaves up and which get dropped after just 1 week...

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh, sorry, I wasn't thinking of the name of it.

0

idfkanything

1 year ago

the hurricane

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the context of Helene?

0

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why is "Stolen Valor" so low?

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think Walz is that easy to anger.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Tough call. Vance has the charisma of a wet dish napkin, but he is well-spoken and good at pushing people's buttons. Walz is kinda the opposite. Charismatic, but Vance might be able to make him lose his temper while keeping a cool head. It'll be interesting for sure.

What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

She's 3 minutes late. We wait way longer for Trump

0

cointuah

1 year ago

She speaking yet wtf

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why not?

0

Master-bettor

1 year ago

Dear yes holders, please don't sneak in and film a sex tape at his mansion. thanks

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's why the R Kelly tape was never released because it showed him with an under... oh, wait a minute.

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

This is quite a wild market, considering the primary resolution source would likely be horrendously illegal and immoral to own.

What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why is middle class so low?

0

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Well I hope no one interprets my Yes bet as an insinuation that at anything untoward was happening at Diddy's parties,,.

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

This is quite a wild market, considering the primary resolution source would likely be horrendously illegal and immoral to own.

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It just will be less hot, I'm afraid...

0

JoebamaBiden

1 year ago

what if there are no nut shots

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Explain

0

Eyebrows

1 year ago

Cursed market

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I was watching a documentary the other night that said that men like him always love to record. That's not to say it will be released by November, but I'm quite sure they exist.

0

Donkov

1 year ago

Any diddy victims in chat? Did he record, should we buy YES?

Diddy sex tape released before November?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

still counts

0

JoebamaBiden

1 year ago

what if there are no nut shots

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't remember seeing Palestinian in the other markets the last week or so (I could be wrong on that). Any special reason it's in Wisconsin?

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Trump has a way of getting people to forget their self-interest. Farmers have historically been against tariffs, for example.

0

LucyCross

1 year ago

Speech is in farm country and farmers NEED illegals to stay afloat...

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Don't do it bro, not worth the risk, take it from someone who's learned the hard way.

0

Yzreeg

1 year ago

If he says trans I'm transitioning

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

For which?

0

efren1983

1 year ago

YES is collapsing

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why are you going all in? Maybe it's less likely he says it, but it's hardly a lock.

0

Yzreeg

1 year ago

If he says trans I'm transitioning

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Singer is hot though

5

R13

1 year ago

As far as national anthems go this is not a very good one

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Whyis Elon Musk so high?

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Nice to see you too, lol

1

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

Welcome back to the degens who vowed to never bet on RCP again

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, at town halls people ask about real issues, like inflation or jobs, and they don't worry about what trans people choose to do with their bodies.

2

R13

1 year ago

Tomorrow it’s a town hall not a rally that trans line is a 100% one of the finishing lines when he ends the rally but in town halls it’s not certain people ask questions there are moderators so some time he says it some times not

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

or photoshopped

0

uxzi

1 year ago

that can be removed during surgery.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What difference would that make?

0

Volume

1 year ago

when we can bet with polymarket token?

Will Trump be Speaker by October 1?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If you can't trush Dinesh D'Souza, then who can you, oh nevermind lol

0

speed

1 year ago

i beware external links

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But what's the date. We all have been watching this thing like a hawk. I'd like it if you were right, and there was some consistency to this. But some times they drop it after three weeks. The big question, or what we thought was the big question is, are they going to drop the Sept 3-5 polls. Then suddenly they drop everything up to 9/11, which was, at the time, 12-13 days ago. Yet, other times it's been over three weeks and they haven't dropped anything. These guys are as stable and predictable as my ex-gf.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

they do seem to have a rule where they don't selectively drop polls, just up to some date.

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I was doing fine until the last 10 minutes he said it like 10 times in a row one of the last questions

0

n/a

1 year ago

Its a town hall he says border less at some of them.

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I bet against border at a town hall event and I won't again.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Its a town hall he says border less at some of them.

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because it's a town hall, so he won't be precisely following his stump speech. It kind of depends on what people ask

2

NotJustKen

1 year ago

Can someone explain why Trans is so low here? 🙈 he said it almost every time.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Realclearpolitics That's the site that has a poll average that this is based on

0

Luxury

1 year ago

what's rcp?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Real C*** Punters

0

Luxury

1 year ago

what's rcp?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

LOVE it

0

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

1 year ago

Real Credibility Problems

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're forgetting these people are in the tank for Trump.

0

Ahilan

1 year ago

The confusing fact that ~28% of the money is on Harris losing popularity is making my bet free. They're really selling 1$ for 72 cents LOL

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That they have the balls to use the phrase "Real Clear" in their name astounds me.

8

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ikr, the fact that the media uses them is a joke.

2

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

1 year ago

Ok, this is unplayable and rcp should be investigated at this point

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's like every week they try to outho themselves. This is erratic even for them.

0

SaulG

1 year ago

Wtf is happening

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm sure the fact that it said Kamala was up +4 had nothing to do with it...

0

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

Why did they drop TIPP 9/13 when there are other polls ending on 9/13 in the results (and a 9/12)? lol fuck rcp.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You knew RCP was going to drop that many polls today?

0

PrinceHal

1 year ago

literalyl can't believe the market didn't see that coming

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Exactly, I spent hours trying to look at the history of past drops to no avail.

0

mombil

1 year ago

I dont think anyone can see those completely random poll drops coming, there is no logic or system behind it...

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think they are keeping the Emerson and Marist ones bc they are expecting the new ones out soon. If they are just replacing the old poll, maybe the numbers won't look as good for Harris. Just speculation, does that sound possible?

0

mombil

1 year ago

Harvard-Harris 9/4 - 9/5 in the trash now which makes it 2.3 - but they still keep the Emerson and NPR which are just as old

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You have such a way with words...

2

illyriansheepdog

1 year ago

harris is sinking like a turd in a toilet and thats on jah

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mountainman, You read the OP and you are saying "Huh?" to me? Ok...

1

io9000

1 year ago

You guys are simply dumb gamblers. Weeks ago i said kash patel said trump would do one debate and no one cared to verify or check. Degenerates.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But if he's continues to slip in the polls, what does he have to lose. He would have to do something to get back in the game.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

The reason there won't be another debate is because neither party wants one. Kamala did as good as she could ever hope for, legit makes zero sense for her to do it again. Trump knows that it will be heavily biased just like last time and can only hurt him at this point.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Embedded in your statement is the assumption that any of us give two shits and a popsicle what Kash Patel says. That's like me saying, "You degenerates. I said Rachel Maddow predicted there would be two debates, and you c***punters couldn'dt even check."

3

io9000

1 year ago

You guys are simply dumb gamblers. Weeks ago i said kash patel said trump would do one debate and no one cared to verify or check. Degenerates.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is it just me or do they not consistently have a time limit for when they drop old polls?

0

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

1 year ago

RCP really clenching onto those three old 9/3-9/4 polls lol

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

what % voted for Wick?

0

JoebamaBiden

1 year ago

AKD 39.52, Premadasa 34.28, Wickremensignhe 17.41 . So, if Wick people picked Premadasa as second he can still win. This is closer than the price suggests here? Or am I misunderstanding something

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't get it, why's Anura slipping in the betting odds?

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

No idea why some reports are sayinghe has 52% and others say he still has 40%. But opposition conceded already.

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How does Sri Lanka settle it if it's less than 50%. Is there just a runoff or is it some sort of bargaining for a coalition gov't.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Been there with Trump mention. Which did you bet on?

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

Nah, just needed funds to play in the Trump mention market. Unfortunately lost about $300 there lol but I'm buying here again. Fill me at 2 cents if you want to be my counterparty.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I mean, what's to panic over? what's the flaw he discovered?

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

bluesky thought he was bonding and is now panic selling!!!

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why, what happened?

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

bluesky thought he was bonding and is now panic selling!!!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why's 1.5-1.9 crashing?

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, you think you're the one who spotted something that we're missing. What you say has already been rejected by UMA. Read the rules more carefully and read the commments earlier. Someone already tried to declare based on that and UMA rejected them.

0

NateNate60

1 year ago

Everyone arguing over today's rating is missing the fact that 538's website already shows 17th September's rating as Favourable +0.1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

awesome

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

I didn't hear no bell

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Tell us more about that.

1

Ravenholdt

1 year ago

Enjoying you're 99c yes shares? Refill your popcorn, you'll love this next part. *50/50 resolution*

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

he could say that anytime, he USED to say it constantly

0

n/a

1 year ago

Surprised not more people are buying no on “tampon” - easy money

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, trust me. I got burned on trans last time

0

Gregorius

1 year ago

he literally said "transgender" in every single rally, what would make him not say it this time?

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are you fudding it bc you need to buy more tampon?

0

LegitBruh

1 year ago

Trump wont say tampon this rally, bet on it. first bet, shit is easy

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good question

0

n/a

1 year ago

Whyd you bet yes then?

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I picked the wrong decade to quit drinking. lol

6

JoebamaBiden

1 year ago

"Let me tell you folks, the border, the BORDER is a disaster—I've said it many times, and we need to fix that BORDER, it's a joke. Comrade Kamala, she’s done nothing at the BORDER, and we all know China, CHINA is laughing at us because of it. Springfield knows, the great people of Springfield, they’re tired of this rigged system, they see what’s happening at the BORDER, just like China. Millions, millions of people pouring across our BORDER while we’re stuck with rigged elections, rigged moderators, and the Fake News. Bitcoin? It’s big, very big. MAGA, MAGA, MAGA—no one does it better. China can’t compete. Mark Robinson is doing incredible work—amazing guy, total patriot—and you won’t hear that from the Fake News, but you’ll hear about tampons and trans this and that. They talk about Nazis and Loomer, but they don’t care about our millions suffering at the BORDER. Haitians coming across, millions! And don’t let the Fake News tell you otherwise. Millions of people are affected, millions! Salt and Border, folks, we’re going to build it bigger, better, stronger, believe me—MAGA!"

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@efren, don't I still have PTSD from it lol

0

Ravenholdt

1 year ago

How many times does this dude say "million"???

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

True, but if he didn't know he was losing, why would he be lashing out and, acting like someone who's losing?

0

Highboard

1 year ago

What people are not considering about why he can't agree to another debate, even if he postures that he will, is that the outcome of the last debate wasn't a fluke. He doesn't even have Biden's defense of being sick. Instead he just knows that he is outmatched, and every time he steps on a stage with her, he will only continue to be dismantled further and further in from of 10s of millions of poeple.

Will there be another debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

true take

0

Car

1 year ago

Kamala pushing for a 2nd debate and Trump refusing to debate her again will make Trump look like a big pussy. lets be real

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good work!

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

STOP THE STEAL

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I forget what's the cost to voting? Isn't there some limit or something?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How long do disputes usually take to resolve?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How long do disputes usually take to resolve?

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

probably wanted to figure out how to "fit iT"

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

That poll was released last night and I had my eye on it… can’t believe that didn’t get to it til now lol

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

and not for ones I already know like Rasmussen

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Been asking that question for a long time, if anyone can tell me I'd pay them some real money.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Been asking that question for a long time, if anyone can tell me I'd pay them some real money.

0

Lennart

1 year ago

where can you see which polls are upcoming ?

What did Mark Robinson do?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Didn't say it was good; I said it could have been worse

0

Car

1 year ago

3ct shares that turn to 0ct isnt anything good bro

What did Mark Robinson do?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

lol

0

Donkov

1 year ago

Hes got my vote

What did Mark Robinson do?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

lol, wow he's a Nazi!?! Good thing my cost basis for 3 cents a share

0

What did Mark Robinson do?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Actually, we have it. You can bet no on everything.

2

Donkov

1 year ago

We need "Other"

What did Mark Robinson do?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can more than one resolve to yes? What if it was sexual misconduct with someone underage?

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

OMG I was thinking last night, "What if he dropped it and then included it? No, even RCP wouldn't whore themselves that much." Lesson learned

0

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

1 year ago

Insane. He actually dropped them and brought them back. Holy fuck.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How the heck is it 1.9?

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So true

1

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

this is the most power the bald headed incel fuk at RCP has ever had

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I read it and I missed it the first time. We all have things we miss. Usually I'm cool and helpful. Or you coudl be a toolbag. We know what you chose "Mike"

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

Read the rules.

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I read it and I missed it the first time. When people ask that oon other forums I nicely clarify. Or you could be a toolbag. Go fuck yourself.

0

Mike2025

1 year ago

Read the rules.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks!

0

mombil

1 year ago

Will update to 2.1 later with the new NYT Siena Poll (47-47)

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Great work on this! In the scenario was at Rasmussen is at +3 Trump for the week, where would that leave us at IF no other polls come out?

0

mombil

1 year ago

Will update to 2.1 later with the new NYT Siena Poll (47-47)

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What if no one gets over 50%? How does the market resolve?

0

Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Got my pen and paper, ready, let's hear it.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Why don't you sit down, grab a pen and a piece of paper, then write all the ways that "YES" holders can possibly win. It's easy money.

Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe the heat was getting to him...

0

archaic

1 year ago

Why would a person who was raised in Turin be willing to flee to Dubai?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Congrats on the rate cut. I was f'in wrong about that one.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Here's the bet for Wisconsin, but, again, one single rally won't be decisive. Both her and Trump go there quite a bit. I also wouldn't put all your account on one thing, particularly if you aren't clear on the rules. These poll average ones can be a real bitch.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I end up buying both sides. Cuts way into your profits, but it's better than one move wiping out all my profits.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@idfkanything. I was expecting that too, tbh. Fox is actually pretty good with their polls.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@idfkanything. I was expecting that too, tbh. Fox is actually pretty good with their polls.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Marist poll tonight notably NOT a national poll.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Here's the bet for Wisconsin, but, again, one single rally won't be decisive. Both her and Trump go there quite a bit. I also wouldn't put all your account on one thing, particularly if you aren't clear on the rules. These poll average ones can be a real bitch.

0

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

1 year ago

I don't understand this, don't we have 2 more days including a rally in Wisconsin?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not really how polls work. 1. It takes about a week for the data in the polls to reflect that. 2. While the rally is no doubt important for the swing state of Wisconsin, it's not going to make a discernible difference for the whole country. Kamala does multiple rallies per day. Rallies make a difference for the 90k-300k people whose votes actually matter in the electoral college. Favorability, is just national numbers.

0

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

1 year ago

I don't understand this, don't we have 2 more days including a rally in Wisconsin?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What this basically means is it has to be finalized for the whole day, once the next data point is finalized. You can see the finalized numbers by looking at the 538 graph. Complex as hell? I think so, but that's how the rules are. We went through similar confusion with an RCP bet for which candidate would get more of a boost from RFK.

0

Phoenix777

1 year ago

Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight was already higher than her unfavorable rating on 17.09.24 it was +0.1 favorable

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

One key part of the rules is, "The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized)."

0

Phoenix777

1 year ago

According to rules it should be enough, please correct me if I am wrong?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're incorrect. Look at the 538 chart for September 17.

0

Phoenix777

1 year ago

According to rules it should be enough, please correct me if I am wrong?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Aren't you the second largest shareholder for "Yes"?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We have two more days, but how does a rally in Wisconsin affect this?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We have two more days, but how does a rally in Wisconsin affect this?

0

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

1 year ago

I don't understand this, don't we have 2 more days including a rally in Wisconsin?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why's that a surprise. They've used Fox before.

1

MrNFT

1 year ago

suprisingly fox is added

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Was that way people started panic buying Harris +2.1-2.5

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Marist poll tonight notably NOT a national poll.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How's it likely if she's at 0.3 now?

0

Tories4Harris

1 year ago

Is it likely that favorable will close out yes by Friday, but it is not a finalized market already.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't understand this part, can you explain?

0

Tories4Harris

1 year ago

Is it likely that favorable will close out yes by Friday, but it is not a finalized market already.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You mean overall average or for Wednesday?

1

betyonko

1 year ago

So currently we have 46.6 46.6 based on that rule

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which polls are expected out tomorrow and Friday?

0

betyonko

1 year ago

Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Link? Are we sure of that? Beccause we went through a whole thing with other bets related to that.

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

heh i fell for that too, unfortunately they're rounding the margin not each individual number, and after the polls tomorrow there's a very good chance of favorability for another day

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks, Fox News is actually pretty reputable and balanced.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

None for sure that I know. Fox or Emerson seem to have a shot. A couple others possible

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which polls are we expecting other than Rasmussen next?

0

Which party wins the most seats Austrian legislative election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, what just happened in the last few hours.

0

Will Diddy flee the US before October?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Explain your reasoning, please

0

Alexanderox

1 year ago

Easy money

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

And maybe a serial rapist* (allegedly)

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

To me you'll always be Puffy

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

To me you'll always be Puffy

0

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because the judge denied him bail.

0

andrepibe

1 year ago

Why did this is going so hard for No?

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@pablero I read that federal prosecutors have a 97% conviction rate. I don't think there's a realistic plea deal that has him seeing the light of day for many decades.

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

Diddy is a flight risk, they aint releasing him that fast

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I read that their conviction rate is 97%.

0

Abstract

1 year ago

My friends the reality is when the feds wrap you up, they already built a big case against you !! They are not letting you out that easily 💭

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Then again, so was OJ, but actually he makes OJ look like a choir boy, if hes' guilty.

0

yperion

1 year ago

Diddy is black

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Allegedly sex trafficking, racketeering, I forget if there were RICO violations (organized crime stuff). He's alleged to be the "head of a criminal enterpirise, counts of rape and sexual assault including gang-raping a 17-year old girl. That said, he's innocent until proven guilty, but it isn't looknig good.

0

Remontada

1 year ago

What diddy do

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol that was so me. I bought 500 shares, but I was too hesitate to buy at the ask when the spread was like 20-30 cents

0

BallzToTheWalz

1 year ago

yeah typical, a market where i make a good bet but barely buy anything, jfc

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

I am $6k deep in this market, so I will say stop for now, but if anyone is interested in unsolicited good advice, buy 'No' for JD Vance for anything below 0.9. Good luck :)

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Call her Comerade Kamala, bitch

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If this were a drinking game, I'd be in the hospital...

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I will never bet against border +15 again, Jesus

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I will never bet against border +15 again, Jesus

1

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

fuck

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

how many borders are we at?

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I was at work. How many china's?

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's Gretch if someone shoved an airhose up her ass.

0

Apsalar

1 year ago

hollup that's not Big Gretch

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He says immigrants are coming from insane asylums from other countries

0

infinitiphantom

1 year ago

Whats up with Insane Asylum?

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

lol, you weren't here the last few times then

0

R13

1 year ago

One thing about trump atleast he is punctual

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the deal with "pager"?

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

0, I lost money on that one. What was frustrating was he kept calling her a Marxist and a commie but couldn' just say it.

0

Betwick

1 year ago

Does anyone know how many times he said Comrade Kamala in his interview last night?

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

yes, good idea

0

n/a

1 year ago

Can we get water?

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The Mann Act makes it harder for federal trafficking defendants to get bail

0

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://edition.cnn.com/entertainment/live-news/sean-diddy-combs-arrested-nyc-09-17-2024/index.html

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He just said he wans't sure, so why are you laughing at him like he's a hypocrite? Especially since Trump is already starting to change his tune.

1

Bettensor

1 year ago

Showing conviction with $5 lmao

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think you're assuming that another judge will make the same ruling. I also wouldn't bet that it can't be taken for granted that Diddy will get the same consideration as an old, sick white man. That's not fair or right, but it just wouldn't shock me. Diddy's alleged crimes are also of a more violent nature though I didn't follow the Weinstein case as closely.

1

Vulture

1 year ago

Here’s a timeline of the key events regarding Harvey Weinstein’s custody and bail: May 25, 2018: Weinstein surrendered to New York police, was arrested, and charged with rape and sexual assault. Same Day: He was released on a $1 million bail, with additional requirements like wearing an ankle monitor and surrendering his passport. July 9, 2018: Bail increased to $5 million due to tampering concerns. February 24, 2020: Weinstein was convicted of rape and sexual assault. March 11, 2020: He was denied bail and taken into custody.

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, but there's precedent for holding people who are flight risks on bail. A lot depends on the judge, tbh.

0

cryptomike

1 year ago

arraignment should happen in 24 hours, where bail will also be decided. cant keep a person in custody for very long. 6th amendment gotta complete all steps in a 'speedy' manner

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's my thinking. It says federal prosecutors have a 97% conviction rate in the US. Prisoners are esp harsh towards sex criminals. I'd run if I were in his shoes.

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

Diddy is a flight risk, they aint releasing him that fast

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What'd I miss, why'd the no market crash?

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

EXACTLY

0

Amok

1 year ago

"You guys are everything that crypto stands for". This feels like tele-evangelism. A group of lunatics who think they are anointed ones, airing out their delusions of saving the world using a lingo only they understand. And endless ass kissing.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would it? Trump would own more of it if outside of DJT, and if it's through DJT, he probably faces more regulation

0

Amok

1 year ago

And DJT has no stake in it, not any involvement in the release.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Tbh, me too, seems out of character

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Pretty smart if it does happen after the election. Surprised that they're being this cautious and not going for the smash and grab

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why what'd he do. I just started watching this market today mostly

0

Amok

1 year ago

I hope he just leaves. Dude turned every market he was in into insult-ridden ragefests.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mountainman I was no, but I think it's totally unfair what happened to you guys.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

The guy on the X space said he was aware of the betting markets, said "Cash in those Yes bets" the market pumped like crazy and then he gave the date of November 4th, when the market ends in the very last minute of that day. They were 100% in on this hustle, re-listen the guy even sounds nervous while saying it. I am sure we are in for some more manipulation up until November. They knew and know exactly what they're doing. Dirty as fuck.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Dude, don't. I swear to god I lived the best life I could imagine being way more in the hole than you are now.

0

Hungrytoad

1 year ago

guys..

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not worth hurting yourself over. Life has so many possibilities; if someone treats you differently for this; fuck 'em.

0

Hungrytoad

1 year ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If you need anyone to talk to give me your discord. I went through this in my 20's and I had fucked myself way deeper than you did, I would imagine. I'm better now for it, but you will recover. Don't make any rash decisions because of money.

0

Hungrytoad

1 year ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just curious how accurate has Chat GPT been for other bets?

0

Amok

1 year ago

I asked ChatGPT how this bet should resolve: This is definitely a tricky situation, and I can see why the community is split. The key issue lies in interpreting what counts as "involvement in the deployment of a new token." Based on the bet's wording: Trump's involvement: If we take the bet literally, it asks for "conclusive, definitive evidence" that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of the token. According to the whitepaper, neither Trump nor the Trump Organization is officially involved in the deployment—they are simply promoting it. If the promotion is the extent of Trump’s engagement, that may not meet the threshold of "involvement in deployment." Token definition: The governance token, while a token, is not available to the public, and if Trump is not directly involved in its creation or distribution, then it likely doesn't qualify as "Trump launching a new coin" in the conventional sense, as your original assumption about the term "coin" likely implies a publicly traded or available token. Given the whitepaper's explicit statement that Trump and his organization are not involved in the token's deployment, and considering the bet's specific wording, the most reasonable resolution might lean towards "No", as this doesn't seem to fit the criteria of Trump being definitively involved in deploying a new token.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I wouldn't even doubt it.

0

BennyS

1 year ago

Trump kids left the room to go bet on Polymarket LOL

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There's also the possibility that they are disorganized and a poorly run organizaiton. Trump isn't actually a great businessman. If you took the money his daddy gave him (I can back this up if asked to) and put it in an index fund, you'd have a. higher net worth than Trump today.

0

Mountainman

1 year ago

Ok guys... here is the deal... We are clearly being fucked with on a very high level.... This team is fully aware of our market, and our manipulating it for their benefit.... I just re-listened to the space and here is the exact quote "When we get clarity on the regulations we'll be able to do a free twitter spaces, but you know hopefully November 4th we get that opportunity". Do with that what you will.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think it's pretty shitty how they just misrepresented themselves. You can't take anything they say to the bank, I've seen the same with them and world financial markets.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree, I was nervous as hell the whole time. I sold most of my position and probably will sell the rest soon. The tipoff for me was that Trump had left the interview. If they were going to grift, they'd have Trump himself sell it and say "it'll be the greatest coin ever..."

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree, I was nervous as hell the whole time. I sold most of my position and probably will sell the rest soon. The tipoff for me was that Trump had left the interview. If they were going to grift, they'd have Trump himself sell it and say "it'll be the greatest coin ever..."

0

Justifax

1 year ago

My suggestion is avoid this market like the plague. If you have orders in it, sorry, but whatever you do don't buy anymore. This is all sketchy as shit.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sorry bro, I've been where you are with the stock market. I recovered. It hurt, but I recovered.

0

Hungrytoad

1 year ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/148857/donald-trump-cryptocurrency-barron-federal

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

gg

1

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I believe he said "The Communist Party is far ahead."

1

butterrr

1 year ago

don't understand

Caroline Ellison prison time?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Tbh there's so much reverse sexism when it comes to criminal sentencing, imho

0

TCA

1 year ago

I can't believe they're gonna let that rotten B off, she caused the entire thing, Sam tried to save her dumb ass and he gets a quarter century and the broad gets time served. Makes me sick. The sexism in the country against males is reaching insane levels.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just because we're on different sides of a bet doesn't mean we can't show basic respect.

3

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree. I think it's bad karma. Let he who hasn't made a trade you wish you hadn't cast the first stone.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree. I think it's bad karma. Let he who hasn't made a trade you wish you hadn't cast the first stone.

3

Mountainman

1 year ago

I know some of you are so obsessed with me, that you are now creating fake sock puppet accounts just to spew gibberish at me. Imagine going through the effort of creating a new email and Polymarket account just to lob insults at a stranger. Very sad behavior. If you would like to speak to me going forward, you must use your real account or you will be ignored. Sorry for any in-convince that this causes you.

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, I'm part of that 95% lol

0

ShyLOCKz

1 year ago

The CME has the probability of a 50bps cut at 67% with $4.1B nominal exposure. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm in agreement about the size of the cut, but wasn't Paul Volker famous for rasiing rates not cutting them?

0

🪦🦁🪦

1 year ago

JPOW is NOT Paul Volker. 💯

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

And after everything that went down with Epstein, it won't look good if they're seen as coddling another rich person who is accused of similar crimes.

2

FOEBOE

1 year ago

He can be considered a flight risk since he has the means to escape which bail can be denied. I dont think Epstein was ever released on bail.

What will Trump say during X space?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not hearing anything, is it just delayed?

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why are you long Kamala then?

0

Caligulas.dog

1 year ago

Here we goooooooooo

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What happened?

0

Caligulas.dog

1 year ago

Here we goooooooooo

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Such obvious conservative bias. They should call it "Atlas Shrugged" Intel.

0

MrNFT

1 year ago

I’ve never seen them use atlas intel for the 5+ years I’ve been tracking rcp lol

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What do you mean?

0

Remontada

1 year ago

Johnhan is controlled opposition!

What will Trump say during X space?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe "Rug" is too on the nose for a Trump coin. Maybe Rug pull

0

What will Trump say during X space?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Selling shitcoins is sitll work. They don't just sell themselves, you know.

0

H4RE

1 year ago

Guys if it's canceled then No's win.. easiest money ever buy the cheapest NO. He's gonna bail on this joke esp he's got a new angle to chase after today

What will Trump say during X space?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

not so sure, if he bails, how will he scam people to buy his shitcoin?

0

H4RE

1 year ago

Guys if it's canceled then No's win.. easiest money ever buy the cheapest NO. He's gonna bail on this joke esp he's got a new angle to chase after today

Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there a way to bet unaffiliated?

1

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

exactly

0

Bilo

1 year ago

Isn't that reason enough?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Morehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6azOOvOTn4

0

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Trump flipflopping on video. 5 years ago, but you're either willing to backtrack on video or you're not.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnFlScSwY6g

0

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Like the polls and his image, the latter is an argument for either side of this, actually

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Not really. Even if he wants to they have to negotiate the terms which is more of a question of weighing incentives. His mood matters for sure but there are other factors.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But how does he win then? Especially since it will look like he's afraid of a woman. Not a good look for someone trying to be the alpha male authoritarian.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

These polls are absolutely brutal for Trump. The clear play is to not risk it happening again and hope this bump is temporary (as they have been in he past). His advisors and donors will be pushing hard for him to not debate again. Sure he can overrule them but… he seems happy to make excuses that go along with what they advise and they will stroke his ego as much as they need to get him to do what they want.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You know; you make a valid point there. However, if Kamala continues to gain momentum, how else does he reverse the trend. If you're losing, you want as many debates as possible.

1

Highboard

1 year ago

What people are not considering about why he can't agree to another debate, even if he postures that he will, is that the outcome of the last debate wasn't a fluke. He doesn't even have Biden's defense of being sick. Instead he just knows that he is outmatched, and every time he steps on a stage with her, he will only continue to be dismantled further and further in from of 10s of millions of poeple.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Pump, if being called a liar detterred Trump the entire history of the past 8 years would be different.

0

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

Will there be another debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, I only now noticed that

0

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

"Marked market".. I like a man with good wordplay..

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He was certain when he wrote it.

0

Erasmus

1 year ago

He seems pretty certain

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

She is playing him like a fiddle.

0

Scoobs

1 year ago

Wonder if he’ll renege after she taunts him because she will definitely taunt him

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

When you're losing, you ask for more debates. He'll be back.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Fun to see the 2 debate cope-ing lol

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

When has Trump ever worried about being consistent. There are three things he's consistent about: 1. Immigrants are bad (even here he sometimes wavers). 2. "I'm a stable genius." 3. If she weren't my daughter...

1

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

esp if he slips more in the polls

0

Shayku

1 year ago

Every night, he's replaying it in his mind, cringing and imagining what he should have said. He needs a bit more time to process, but he'll want his shot when he feels ready again.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't know. Does Trump have a habit of changing his mind about things?

1

Pump

1 year ago

if it wasn't final, this statement about not participating in the second debate wouldn't have been made on video

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because a black woman who he spent six week deriding as "low IQ" did her dominatrix routine on his ass.

2

Will143

1 year ago

Other than not wanting to lose the election, why wouldn't Trump want a second debate?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ms. Loomer, this is where you "come in"

1

Chen1996

1 year ago

Fox News: Trump appears to leave door open for second debate with Harris: 'Maybe if I got in the right mood

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So are half the things we bet on, if we're honest with ourselves.

4

sahee

1 year ago

This 3 million dollar market is completely dependent on Donald Trump's "mood" 💀

Will Trump sell shares of DJT in September?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Please correct me if I'm wrong (I may be), but I think it's saying that a post sept 30 filing that says he sold in sept would counthat a post 9/

1

Meyden

1 year ago

Wouldn‘t a filing of him selling be released later than Sept 30th?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

how many times has he said MAGA or make america great again?

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, I'm buying border again next time. I sat it out this time.

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what Laura Loomer said.

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

sold with a 30 dollar loss. thank god for my sticky fingers lol

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Been there...

0

BlitzDaTweetGod

1 year ago

There goes 4k i just lit on fire because I had doubts 🤣🤣🤣

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It was in the 60's when I posted it.

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

it's in the 80s. isn't that good still?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Amen!

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

talk about word salad

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why is "trans" tanking?

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He'll show.

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

btw if he doesnt show up it's all "No" per the rules? that's dope

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He'll make time. He's a narcissist.

0

JJo

1 year ago

I dunno guys I don't think hes gonna get time to talk about most of these things

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

hard to say, it's a longer rally, but AZ is a border state unlike Nevada

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

wasn't yesterday's "border 15+" met because of Kari Lake mainly? "we call her Border Lake, border border border!" but he's in NV today

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But if he refers to it as baby killing, it won't count.

0

Randomchooser

1 year ago

abortion is a block, he is one of the main focus against harris policies..come on he talked about that at the debate too...they kill the baby in the 7th 8th 9th month and even after birth.

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

probably because it's new, so it hasn't had a consistent record

0

DerSchwarzeKanal

1 year ago

So at the rally last night, he said Haitian 9 times..., given that the previous rally is always the best predictor for what he'll say I'm surprised the odds aren't higher

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Their kids would have hooves.

0

n/a

1 year ago

abort the trump/loomer fetus

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

On Laura Loomer's chest

1

thakattack19

1 year ago

must be taking a big massive dump

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We should have one for how late Trump will be, yeah.

2

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

We need a market for when Trump will start speaking

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Exactly

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

I went to a Harris/Walz rally. This shit is low energy af

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@munners Thank you, but even though someone Tweeted that recently, I am thinking it might be an old clip. He said, "she doesn't like DeSanctimonious (DeSantis)." That was back in the early GOP Primary when DeSantis was relevant.

0

BiggestBidenFan

1 year ago

He will definitely mention Laura Loomer

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why earring?

0

xyz12Three

1 year ago

I was looking for odds on him saying earring.

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Imagine if he just started rambling about Tic Tacs and sharks lol

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Adolf used to arrive late to rallies, deliberately keeping his audience waiting to heighten the sense of expectation. Many of his speeches began with a series of questions or challenges, delivered quietly, and calmly

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

lol, I guess so

1

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

dogs and cats for trump lmao, they're really going all in on this Springfield thing

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just now??

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

he prob speaks in about 10-15 min. RSBN said his plane just landed

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He was 90 min late to the press conference, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's fairly late to this.

0

CookedAlligator

1 year ago

Trump always late this has to be a record

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'd rather it be lower (when I'm buying)

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

Trump has averaged 1 “Trans” or “Transgender” per rally over the last month. I’m surprised it’s so high

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Has he not said it at a recent rally?

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

Trump has averaged 1 “Trans” or “Transgender” per rally over the last month. I’m surprised it’s so high

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs

0

MichaelBurryd

1 year ago

China China China China China

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is from 9 years ago, so it's just for fun:

0

MichaelBurryd

1 year ago

China China China China China

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good luck (unless we're no opposite sides of a bet, hehe)

0

CookedAlligator

1 year ago

wish me luck gents

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think he also said dogs during the debate, but I'm not 100% sure.

0

Robyratto1

1 year ago

Why is cats so lower than dogs?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@blitzdatweetgod It just feels like 8 hours...

0

BlitzDaTweetGod

1 year ago

2 hour rally tonight too lol. Right after he got spanked on live TV. Good god he gon ramble like you’ve never heard him ramble before. Everything resolves yes lol

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

40 minutes from now

0

Zeros

1 year ago

Or how long left for the rally to begin?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Haitian is two syllables. I'm not long or short it, but he's usually good for two-syllable words.

0

gpsmatty

1 year ago

GTFO out of here with Moderator and Haitian, both of those are too big, and too complex of words for him to say.

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

10 PM EST

0

undertaker-fan

1 year ago

Guys, what time will this event be?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@flybaby Thanks!

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Where's tampon?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think he was pretending not to know.

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

Trump was asked about Laura Loomer in his press conference and had no idea what the reporter was referring to

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He's hit and miss on which animals he mentions.

0

negativedrip

1 year ago

shouldn't springfield, cat and dog be priced closer? if he's saying one he's most likely saying the others

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No such thing, if it were only veterans this becomes way harder. I'm quasi-new anyway.

0

CookedAlligator

1 year ago

too many new people

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

She's a conspiracy nnut who he took to the 911 memorial. She thinks it was a conspiracy.

0

n/a

1 year ago

wtf does "loomer" mean in this context?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I lost money betting against it yesterday. I won't make that mistake twice.

0

Lopgft

1 year ago

Springfield, Ohio has to hit right?

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Didn't he say dogs at the debate?

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

Bc at the debate he said immigrants are eating cats lol

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He created the name. His real name is Stephanopolous.

0

Caligulas.dog

1 year ago

Slopadopoulos is way of a complicated word for Trump to remember or speak

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would he mention her at the rally? Did he mention her in rallies or speeches other than the press conference?

0

BiggestBidenFan

1 year ago

He will definitely mention Laura Loomer

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Laura Loomers is this right-wing conspiracy theorist who he took to the 9/11 memorial. She thinks 911 was a conspiracy.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Not sure what's going on with the Loomers but was just able to limit sell for around 3x returns lol I'll take it

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, please!

0

Randomchooser

1 year ago

Next time open the market earlier pls!

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh ok, thanks! Has he said that at other rallies or was that just the other day in Arizona?

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

He said it yesterday. He said something like “we really have 50 border states” because they’re flying over the border

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I lost money thinking that two days ago. I bet on Trump learning from his mistakes, so I'm learning from that mistake.

1

Lidl

1 year ago

nah it was so stupid the first time, he won't repeat that

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the deal with "Border 50 States"?

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why's it 74% when she's only 0.5% ahead on Polymarket?

1

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

CRT?

0

Flybaby

1 year ago

Its over because the new thing to talk about is Hatians and pets. It's like CRT. No one screams about CRT anymore.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait, how do you program this thing to give you sound alerts or is that for the mobile version?

0

BabyYoda12

1 year ago

quite crazy.Literally woke me up from my sleep

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

how many times?

0

Highboard

1 year ago

He said Haitian today.

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

When?

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 year ago

Trump says moderator is very biased.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I didn't hear this. What'd he say?

0

Flybaby

1 year ago

There was one but it ended on Aug 31st I believe. With Trump halfway shitting on Vance today resparked it.

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What was the resolution on the joy/joyful controversy?

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How many MAGA's?

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://abc11.com/post/2024-elections-former-president-donald-trump-speak-economic-hardships-north-carolina-event-asheville/15170166/

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why less likely in Arizona?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But what makes you think this time will be too different? They said other times his speech will focus on the economy, but he veered off.https://abc11.com/post/2024-elections-former-president-donald-trump-speak-economic-hardships-north-carolina-event-asheville/15170166/

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

I don't think so, especially because this is a speech format and he's speaking to Tucson, that's a blue dot in Arizona

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why less likely in Arizona?

0

dpukz

1 year ago

is he really gonna say border 15 times in arizona..

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, I am calm, it's just annoying. Just don't be a child. You dont have any information

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Then be an adult and share it instead of being a coy little girl about it.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Then be an adult and share it instead of being a coy little girl about it.

0

IlyasproQw

1 year ago

I know something

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What makes you think it'll expire?

0

MrNFT

1 year ago

1.1, this goes under when the harris +4 expires around thursday

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why?

0

Nuggies

1 year ago

it is sadly over....

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Where's tampon?

2

What will Kamala say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This

0

minji

1 year ago

She probably got ptsd from Clinton

What will Kamala say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I got nervous about my no position on it. Not as nervous as I got when he didn't say, "Border Czar" on the immigration question.

0

Howiefelter

1 year ago

RIGHT??? whole debate and she couldnt call him a liar once???

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

shh

0

tunatyler

1 year ago

crypto holders never learn

What will Kamala say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How many times did Kamala say bordeR?

2

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, I was nervous about having like 1k on no for tampon. Respect!

0

jamesclove

1 year ago

donald trump if you can hear us right now, please save us

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They opened one for whether he will use a racial slur just a couple of hours ago.

0

0x243339432434324234

1 year ago

No market for the n-word?

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the story with Springfield?

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

good question

0

nonum

1 year ago

What happens if he says something while he's muted?

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

wow, I'll check that out

0

PunishedCK

1 year ago

Trump said border 26 times last debate

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh Border Czar is almost assured.

0

PunishedCK

1 year ago

Trump said Border 20 times today at a rally. Keep in mind that anytime he says Border Czar it also counts.

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, it looks like punching down.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

No, he's not going to talk about the VP. This is the presidential debate.

What will Trump say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I made bank off tampon last speech, but I don't think he'll say "tampon" in the debate. I think that's more of a rally thing.

0

Nuggies

1 year ago

This is no doubt the most dangerous issuance of the Tampon Bond. Brothers have faith.....

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If it was 2-3 I would have bought.

0

Bumba

1 year ago

how did people know he wasn't gonna say MAGA 4+ times

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Bc he keeps saying it.

0

BlackSky123

1 year ago

Tamp-bonders keep winning

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Never thought I'd say this, but thank you Trump!

4

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, I've calculated. I'm just telling you what usually happens; that's not to say it will happen that way again.

0

Speculo

1 year ago

If you calculate the average, the spread is currently 1,75. It only takes 0,31 pts to change brackets. Just two goods or two polls in the same direction

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're right about the right-wing bias. I'd invite you to look at past weeks here. I think you'll find those kinds of swings are not 30%, but welcome

1

Speculo

1 year ago

RealClearPolitics (RCP) has a right-wing bias, typically favoring the GOP by about 1.5 to 2 points on average when compared to other outlets like FiveThirtyEight, Silver or The Economist. Considering that daily fluctuations of 0.2 points are common and we still have seven days remaining, I believe the probability across all three outcome ranges from 1 to 2.5 points is around 30% each. In short, anything can happen. One is over priced, one is rightly priced, one is under priced ;)

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because it started yesterday, or trading opened yesterday

0

n/a

1 year ago

Why is half of the date range of this market already in the past?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How so, @tunatyler is right so far. I checked his last few rallies and he said it, and multiple times.

0

n/a

1 year ago

tampon so undervalued lmao

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Was it 4 times then?

0

n/a

1 year ago

MAGA 4+ times is criminally underrated. it hit at the last 3 rally’s why is it 30%

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@justifax it was funny only because I slept through it. lol

1

Chen1996

1 year ago

Ahh the sun is shining, the birds are chirping, and another beautiful day for us to get fucked over by RCP!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If he's holding $DJT, he won't be able to afford 3,000 people for long.

3

Kalags

1 year ago

DO NOT BET HERE! THERE IS A DANGEROUS MAN ON THE SITE NAMED DJTHolder. *cough* he will hire 3000 men and women and children to go on the polls. Save yourself from the manipulation!

How many viewers will the debate get?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I believe so since it's based on Nielsen Ratings.

0

Lesssgoo

1 year ago

Is this for live viewership??

How many viewers will the debate get?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why do you say that? I think this will be her first really big test as a presidential candidate in an adversarial situation.

0

CookedAlligator

1 year ago

clearly its gonna be under 50M

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

wow, 6/7? I still have it as a no for the debates, but I might buy some shares for Wisconsin if that's the case.

0

tunatyler

1 year ago

He’s said it 6/7 rallies

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

yes and more JD Vance ones too.

1

Randomchooser

1 year ago

Can we have Tim Walz markets too????

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Then again, he might talk about bacon and tic-tacs.

0

IAMYOU

1 year ago

Trump might surprise everyone by mentioning crypto or Bitcoin in Mosinee to highlight Wisconsin's untapped potential in the digital economy. With the state's strong manufacturing base and tech-savvy workforce, he could position cryptocurrency as a tool for economic revitalization, potentially framing it as a way to bring high-tech jobs to rural areas and modernize traditional industries. This unique angle could resonate with both blue-collar workers and young tech enthusiasts, bridging demographic gaps in this crucial swing state.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm a liberal, and even I get a chuckle out of that one.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

1 year ago

Gavin Newscum please

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Have they ever not had one before?

0

432

1 year ago

still no new bet for rcp polls

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

no, that's 12 AM (midnight)

0

432

1 year ago

isn't 12 pm 24:00 ?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm surprised morning consult didn't shift it, not that I'm complaining.

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

wow they added morning consult. it's over

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which day of the week was it posted last time?

0

432

1 year ago

why is there no new polling bet....

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which polls do you think are likely to come before the deadline? I also feel like another surprise could be around the corner.

0

n/a

1 year ago

More drama coming

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh, yeah, I keep forgetting that!

0

ekimika

1 year ago

morning consult updated

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So weird, the last two weeks they did it on a different day. I wonder why. Thanks very much for the heads up!

0

ekimika

1 year ago

morning consult updated

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thank you!

0

ekimika

1 year ago

morning consult updated

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I just checked. I'm not seeing any new national Trump Harris polls for today. Can you please provide the link?

0

ekimika

1 year ago

morning consult updated

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You mean just now on RCP?

0

ekimika

1 year ago

morning consult updated

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have a theory that they somehow are not counting the Reuters Ipsos because they are using the ABC Ipsos poll. They used to have ABC News and Reuters Ipsos listed separately. My guess is they want an excuse to not add another non-right-wing poll. Does my theory make sense? No, it's about RCP. I could be totally wrong.

0

n/a

1 year ago

WHY the hell did they remove Reuters / Ipsos poll from the calculation?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So I wasn't here earlier, it went up to 2 after Rasmussen and then down to 1.8 after Emerson? Was that it?

0

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

RCP now at 2!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not entertained

0

idfkanything

1 year ago

Do you not like the rollercoaster? Are you not entertained? lol

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If Pew drops, Wouldn't that push Kam to +2 if Rasmussen holds steady. Pew was +1, so if they drop it, wouldn't that push her up a tad? I could be wrong; I'm just asking.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Actually you’re wrong, if PEW drops, Kamala loses

What will Kamala say at the debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're probably right, but the closing statement worries me.

1

YIMBYcaucus🏡

1 year ago

Y’all are sleeping on No for Not Going Back

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@worldfox21 correct

0

idfkanything

1 year ago

What polls are expected? Looks like CBS News produces polls every 2 weeks and that might print before the 6th. Rasmussen should print. Perhaps an HH poll, but historically they do not print First week of September. Anything else potentially printing before the 6th?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would a tie for rasmussen take her to 2.0 instead of leaving her at 1.9?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Beware that Kamala needs Rasmussen on Tie to take a lead, and it’s questionable we get it to drop on time. Other polls are unlikely to boost her/drop.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I also bought on my own misunderstanding. I'll be more careful. Sorry, it's been a bad week ,and I should get more sleep.

0

diddy

1 year ago

It’s over for 2-2.4, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1831295199185662460?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Very sorry, I was looking at too many things at once, and I hadn't slept much.

1

diddy

1 year ago

You just gave a false information and made me buy 2-2.4 stock, what the hell man????

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I forget how it affects the average if it's the first time they release a post-RFK head to head poll. So if she's up 2 in the first head-to-head would that change it from 1.9?

0

diddy

1 year ago

It’s over for 2-2.4, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1831295199185662460?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@riprcp sorry, my fault, it was a Yougov pollhttps://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_HIwtch9.pdf so the differentail wouldn't be the same.

1

diddy

1 year ago

It’s over for 2-2.4, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1831295199185662460?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

CNN's poll has her at +2 and she was at -2 last time. Wouldn't that supercede it?

2

diddy

1 year ago

It’s over for 2-2.4, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1831295199185662460?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They just released their battleground states poll

1

diddy

1 year ago

Beware that Kamala needs Rasmussen on Tie to take a lead, and it’s questionable we get it to drop on time. Other polls are unlikely to boost her/drop.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think we'll get morning consult also.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Beware that Kamala needs Rasmussen on Tie to take a lead, and it’s questionable we get it to drop on time. Other polls are unlikely to boost her/drop.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What do you mean "to take a lead"? You mean to get to 2.0?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Beware that Kamala needs Rasmussen on Tie to take a lead, and it’s questionable we get it to drop on time. Other polls are unlikely to boost her/drop.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Rasmussen is usually the end of the week. They publish weekly.

1

idfkanything

1 year ago

What polls are expected? Looks like CBS News produces polls every 2 weeks and that might print before the 6th. Rasmussen should print. Perhaps an HH poll, but historically they do not print First week of September. Anything else potentially printing before the 6th?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@unclesmurf some of us were.

0

idfkanything

1 year ago

What polls are expected? Looks like CBS News produces polls every 2 weeks and that might print before the 6th. Rasmussen should print. Perhaps an HH poll, but historically they do not print First week of September. Anything else potentially printing before the 6th?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, ikr

0

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

It’s funny coming to this market from the RKF market.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I actually made more money off my harris shares when I bought them for 27 cents and sold them in the 60's or 70's, so enjoy.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

Shoutout to aaron and coconut for donating me money

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Great call!

1

diddy

1 year ago

Kamala 1.9 as I said :)

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Interesting @drake which ones and how do you figure?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

gg guys, any guesses on what the end of the week will be for Harris-Trump on RCP?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Good point, any guesses on where we will be?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

gg guys, any guesses on what the end of the week will be for Harris-Trump on RCP?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Asking myself the same question, they are weird.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Why is the TIPP one not updated in RCP yet?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

gg guys, any guesses on what the end of the week will be for Harris-Trump on RCP?

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Would that put this at 1.9 or 2.0? I actually own more shares of Kamala 2.0-2.4 than I do of this.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Final poll from TIPP should be updated by RCP this morning according to people familiar with the matter… this will settle this market 🙏😊

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Thanks for the info. How do we know what order they will report these in. Why haven't they already?

0

n/a

1 year ago

Final poll from TIPP should be updated by RCP this morning according to people familiar with the matter… this will settle this market 🙏😊

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He did buy.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Why aren't you buying?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@FreeCityIndividual Why don't you use your insight to make some serious money on this site? You can bet on the GOP to win by 155 electoral votes and make a massive profit. You're welcome.

0

CerealLover

1 year ago

I feel like trump can easily flip the thin margin in the polls.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Facts don't care about your feelings.

1

CerealLover

1 year ago

I feel like trump can easily flip the thin margin in the polls.

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

特朗普可能会赢得德克萨斯州，但在我看来，这些股票的价值远远超过12-13美分。如果足够接近，这些价格可能会上涨。

0

agurg

1 year ago

谁会赢呢

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Who is drake?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Drake has convinced me.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

In the first two days si was the #1 Kamala holder for a bit, and I agree.

0

sigh

1 year ago

take it from the former #3 Kamala holder: Kamala is favored, but Trump is undervalued

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Fair enough, but on that same site they have September 2024 at over 40%, so I'm not totally crazy. You might be right though.

1

Will143

1 year ago

Damn thought this would fall to 20 cents or less lol. Just going to assume people know more than me.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Some good suggestions, but why are you saying put 75% on a single trade (or were you saying that ironically)?

0

nnimrodd

1 year ago

I just wrote a polymarket playbook https://nnimrodd.medium.com/polymarket-playbook-5f53a2dd8ee3

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You make a good point, but why then did you initially bet August would not be the hottest month and 2024 wouldn't be the hottest year?

0

Will143

1 year ago

Damn thought this would fall to 20 cents or less lol. Just going to assume people know more than me.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wow, that makes me nervous for my other positions. This is one of two republican positions I have. I thought Kamala was going to have a bump orginally (that's why I originally was very long) but the evidence is mixed about it.

0

babendums

1 year ago

i love profiting off of trumpers cognitive dissonance. its a beautiful thing. Polymarket is skewed right, so its free alpha.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You get that Trump LITERALLY bought Epstein's plane and is flying on it. Kamala has no connection to Epstein that I'm aware of. So yeah, if you want to set up a market about that, have it at.

0

Scrounge

1 year ago

How about betting on which presidential elect releases the Epstein flight logs? That is a bet 😂 we all know Harris won’t do it because more than half the Democratic Party and financial backers would be in prison.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Speaking of herpes flareups...

0

Scrounge

1 year ago

Harris ain’t gonna get shit 😂 Well maybe a herpes flareup, that’s about it.

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're not sure why the price is what it is, so I can ask you the same thing. You stated an opinion, what's the reason for your opinion Why 20 cents or less?

0

Will143

1 year ago

Damn thought this would fall to 20 cents or less lol. Just going to assume people know more than me.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You asked me this before: why did you sell?

0

n/a

1 year ago

We only Rasmussen Poll to come out, bring RCP down to 1.6 (this would resolve 50/50) or 1.5 (Trump Wins)!!! It's almost over

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not a Trump supporter, btw. I agree with you as a general statement about here. This market is different because RCP has a severe right-wing bias.

0

babendums

1 year ago

i love profiting off of trumpers cognitive dissonance. its a beautiful thing. Polymarket is skewed right, so its free alpha.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If we were using 538, I'd be long and strong Harris.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Tbf this would've been a whole different story if we used the 538 average instead lol

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The average was 1.5 when we started and I was buying Harris shares left and right. It's now updated to 1.6 for some and 1.7 for others. I realize what I'm saying makes no sense; welcome to "Real Clear" Politics.

0

grappli

1 year ago

You think they backdate their average? Lmao

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They do. This is why I say it's insane.

0

grappli

1 year ago

You think they backdate their average? Lmao

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Seems every decision they make is one that favors Trump's numbers.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Hmmm maybe they don't include both polls. ABC/Ipsos versus ABC/Wapo

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@riprcp 51-Pents has a point there. Why don't you own shares then?

0

diddy

1 year ago

If Rasmussen drops 29, 30, Kamala is so dead, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1829906619733602353?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is the problem with RCP. RCP also wants it to look good for Trump.

0

L114

1 year ago

not sure why it went up quite a bit on the ABC poll when it didnt change the average and just replaced the old

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If you could get it down their now, that'd be great, I kind of want to buy more.

4

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What made you think it would fall to 20 cents or less?

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What made you think it would fall to 20 cents or less?

1

Will143

1 year ago

Damn thought this would fall to 20 cents or less lol. Just going to assume people know more than me.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@haterz in my family, that's a compliment :)

1

grappli

1 year ago

So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@haterzloserz I wasn't swinging around my dick. Look who initiated the "you're losing money" exchange. So I certainly can point that out if the guy telling me I lose money has a negative profit? You're acting as if I'm the one who started attacking him.

0

grappli

1 year ago

So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb

Will Brazil unban X before October?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's right: Elon Musk only cares about right wing freedom of speech. Google Elon Musk and "Turkey" @miutea

1

TheOneB

1 year ago

Elon Musk has no issues restricting freedom of speech, he bans every single person Modi from India tells him to.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Paul?

0

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

Paul used to read me his poetry :(

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@grappli read the threads dude, we already said it like five times. just scroll down. @pinochet want to compare profits on our accounts

0

grappli

1 year ago

So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're correct: you certainly don't. RCP's average isn't what you think. It's a lot of right wing Alice in Wonderland BS.

0

Nikitis

1 year ago

Yeah, looks like free money at this point. I don't get it.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are you aware of how RCP actually calculates its average? I once thought as you did.

0

grappli

1 year ago

So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is one of the key pollsters used by RCP. They posted this today. Is Rasmussen a biased right-wing pollster yep? Does it matter what I think? Nope.https://x.com/SecretsBedard/status/1829916718359040326

1

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They never seem to know.

1

BennyS

1 year ago

Wym rigged? Rigged by NASA or?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I can't speak for everyone, but I do just fine if this goes to 1.6 (maybe 1.7) Harris and it's a tie.

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait a minute, you think Trump has to be in the lead for us to win?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait a minute, you think Trump has to be in the lead for us to win?

0

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

Which polls do Trump holders think will drop that will shift trump into the lead?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@babendums You still don't get what this actually is. If this were a question of whose poll numbers would rise more during this time period nationally, we'd be on the same side of the trade. Check my account and account history if you don't believe me. This is one of only two republican positions I have.

2

MrNFT

1 year ago

Rasmussen polls that closed today 8/31 will be among the last batch by RCP after the weekend. Trump is up nicely in them! EZ LOCK

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't see it on the log. Besides, I don't really care. I have things to do other than obsess over what other people do. Be secure with your own position, bro. We'll agree to disagree.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

coconut is sitting here selling their trump shares and then gloating in the comments about how trump is a lock

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He sold some shares 5 hours ago and still has 20 times the position you have. Some people don't want to have a certain percentage of their account on one bet, maybe. Or maybe he wanted to take a vacation.

1

AppleADay

1 year ago

coconut is sitting here selling their trump shares and then gloating in the comments about how trump is a lock

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I can't speak for her, but climate change is very sad and depressing.

6

Mike2025

1 year ago

Why?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also, this is 5% of my holdings whereas it's, let's see here... 100% of yours. If I'm wrong, I have a bad day. If you're wrong, you're wiped out. I can see why you're being so snarky.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

aaron28 on a speedrun to lose as much money as possible

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You have like no self-awareness or sense of irony. My net profit is 6800 at time of writing. Yours is -1.4k even though you've been here longer than I have.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

aaron28 on a speedrun to lose as much money as possible

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Nate Silver's model says the odds favor Trump. I don't agree with him, but it has literally nothing to do with what you're actually betting on.

0

babendums

1 year ago

Kamalas getting impatient lol. This one should be easy win guys. Nothings changed in the past few days

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Morning consult dropped earlier this week.

1

babendums

1 year ago

M consult still hasnt dropped and we are still at 1.8. Rasumussen is in for most of days. This thing is easily going harris.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@mmmpieee, we do what we can

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

Here comes the rug, do-do-do-do-do-do Here comes the rug, and I say It’s all right Little darling, I’ve been waiting for you I’ve been waiting for you Little darling, I’ve been waiting for you I’ve been waiting for you Here comes the rug, do-do-do-do-do-do Here comes the rug, and I say It’s all right I’m coming home, I’m coming home I’m coming home, I’m coming home

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@riprcp and notice he's not talking, so things might be going his way. He bought in at the very bottom. I owned Harris shares and didn't see what he did at first.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Afaict, this market will not resolve until you can scroll over and see Aug 31st on the graph - ie. : "once data for Day 8 (Aug 31) is first released on the graph." I don't believe this happens until RCP sees a poll that covers Aug 31st.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He owns 20 times the number of shares you do, bro.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

You just sold 500 shares

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what I was wanting to know. It's almost tripled since yesterday.

0

ChiliCat

1 year ago

Did something happen that affected Trump's stock prices?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think so.

0

babendums

1 year ago

Does this auto close tonight even if no day 8 print?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't make these rules, btw. I find RCP's rules to be utterly moronic and arbitrary.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe, IF it has her higher than +3, and if they didn't include Kennedy (otherwise, they won't count it).

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe, IF it has her higher than +3, and if they didn't include Kennedy (otherwise, they won't count it).

3

diddy

1 year ago

There’s CBS poll dropping Monday that will include the last days, should conclude Kamala win

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@pinochetsairplane done!

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

People still putting money on trump are just donating LOL. Youre better off donating it to his campaign, atleast that is a good cause.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Using the 2+2 = fish logic of RCP, the Quinnipiac which SHOULD have helped Kamala, caused her to drop. Like I said, I'm not a Trump supporter, I'm betting that a right-leaning site with no transparency that prefers right-wing polls might lead to a tie or Trump lead. And I'm getting 10-1 odds..

0

diddy

1 year ago

If any poll that drops like Quinnipac gives Kamala +1, this is 50/50 then right? +1 point should drop it to 1.6

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They haven't used it at all in 2024 from what I see. Link that shows they use it?

0

jl3128776

1 year ago

Harris +5 poll https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/harris-leads-by-5

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does the RCP average use them?

0

jl3128776

1 year ago

Harris +5 poll https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/harris-leads-by-5

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I disagree about our odds, and I also disagree about the Trump campaign being a good cause.

2

AppleADay

1 year ago

People still putting money on trump are just donating LOL. Youre better off donating it to his campaign, atleast that is a good cause.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I thought it said EST in the rules

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Though they might want to clarify the timezone to be EST. It is a reasonable assumption

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

but a good 1-10 bet

1

Speculo

1 year ago

I don't see the point of being still engaged in this market... Too many unknown unknows. All RCP methodology is unknown, Polymarket's settlement trigger and rules is unknown too, as many people have different interpretations. Not a good 10-1 bet.

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I fucking love it here.

15

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Liked by aenews2, IWillRetur... and 13 others

BennyS

1 year ago

September is usually colder than August, but we will see.

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have a financial incentive for them to say yes. :)

9

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Liked by aenews2, AugustoPin... and 7 others

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Nasa has financial incentive to say yes

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Things aren't quite as they seem.

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

Is this not like 95% kamala, why is the market still priced like this

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

changed how I bet

0

BallzToTheWalz

1 year ago

had a similar thought, really changes how I would bet quite a bet

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

yes, not that I'm complaining

0

n/a

1 year ago

Ah you mean trump share price?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They don't print until they get another poll. Maybe not till end of the weekend if pollsters take the weekend off.

1

babendums

1 year ago

When do we get the next RCP print?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We were at like 5 or 6 and suddenly went up to 12. like a bunch of the sellers on the other side suddenly left?

0

n/a

1 year ago

What do you mean?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How were you getting three hours?

0

tunatyler

1 year ago

wait so correct me if im wrong, but if no new poll comes out in the next 3 hours that some how shifts trump, harris wins correct

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm simply betting that a right-wing political site's polls might favor Trump.

0

CleverHans

1 year ago

Wut ? I don't get it. Is it just Trump good Harris bad?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yeah, I'm a liberal, look at all my other betting positions on my profile. I used to own 15k Harris shares. This isn't some MAGA, alternative facts thing.

0

CleverHans

1 year ago

Wut ? I don't get it. Is it just Trump good Harris bad?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not correct. I'd explain it, but it takes awhile, I'd just read through the threads on here as it was hashed out. That was my impression too, at first.

0

tunatyler

1 year ago

wait so correct me if im wrong, but if no new poll comes out in the next 3 hours that some how shifts trump, harris wins correct

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I honestly don't think they are scammers. I think people are just genuinely confused. Combined with stubborness on the part of some

0

Justifax

1 year ago

so if you just don't know, here is the explanation. if you're a scammer, this is working against you, because it forces me to educate people - which is what you scammers don't want. so maybe just stop yapping?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

bro, look at my profile picture for just one second.

0

diddy

1 year ago

August 23 is 1.6 not 1.7

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't know much about it, but it's like if you can buy something at below it's usual value and then sell it at its actual value later to profit from fluctuations in value. I don't know the difference between that and regular trading, tbh.

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

what does arb mean?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

arbitrage

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

what does arb mean?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@sonontherun, Ikr, if this were a straight up bet on who will have a net gain this past week, I'd be betting with you. In fact, at one time I think I owned 15k shares of Harris on here.

0

n/a

1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Then make some easy money.

5

elon69

1 year ago

Climate change isn't even real, what a rigged market again

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Bro, it's not random. I've watched this every day like a crazy person (no comments). It only updates when there are polls.

0

diddy

1 year ago

This graph update is so random it’s insane. I don’t know why isn’ it showing today’s day yet. Still, this shouldn’t matter because it says data from Day 0 and Day 7 will be compared.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's true.

0

n/a

1 year ago

I think there needs to be a new poll before the result "updates"

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But? I'm assuming there's a but or you'd be long Harris.

0

n/a

1 year ago

If we follow last month's logic, Daily Kos/Civiqs should release their poll tomorrow and Kamala is projected to be between 5+ and 6+, which would bring her lead to 2.0 or 2.1 :)

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Look at my profile picture. Day 0 shifted retroactively to 1.7. You're probably going to win anyway, but at least make an informed choice.

0

TheCoconut

1 year ago

Yes you've explained it well

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Look at my profile picture, bro.

0

jl3128776

1 year ago

Note that we haven’t gotten RCP-included polls ending today. In this case, when the batch including 8/31 and beyond does get included eventually, that will trigger the market to go into review. And given that any polls ending 8/31 are only added to the 8/31 and not the 8/30 numbers, 8/30 will remain identical to right now. And that’s 1.8.

2024 September hottest on record?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's their dispute resolution mechanism.

1

Will143

1 year ago

what is Uma

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@sonontherun You're right. I only looked at the dates for previous months. Good thinking to look in August.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harper-Harris poll should be out today. Not sure to what extent that will help us or hurt us, but if there's a way it can favor Trump, RCP will find it.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ok, it won't let me post a picture, so I changed my profile picture just for you :). Again, you're likely going to win, but it's a lot more murky than you' d think.

0

n/a

1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I checked right now and it said 1.7. What is it saying for everyone else?

0

n/a

1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe you're right, but what is Day 0 at now on the graph?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Clarification: This market isn’t about polls. It is about whose position improves or decreases, comparing Day 0 relative to day 7. At Day 0, Kamala was at 48.5 vs 46.9 Trump. At Day 7 Kamala is at 48.2 vs 46.4 Trump. Kamala lost 0.2 points, Trump lost 0.5 points. Position of Kamala has improved over the 8-day period. This is how market concludes with current numbers. Graphs are just visual representation of data.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Check now, it's 1.7. I don't know how the rules will count it. I used to be the largest Harris holder ion the first day or so. This is part of why I switched. Not saying you should, but you're going into this from the standpoint of what's rational and that's not what RCP seems to be offering. Check it now, it says Day 0 is 1.7. Yes, it was 1.5.

0

n/a

1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can you show me where it says that in the rules?

0

Eyebrows

1 year ago

Agree on the weird delay thing. Still, the real result will be done once we see today's number, whether that's at midnight or 6 am or whatever.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Sonontherun, they do retroactively change averages, according to their right wing alchemy. Look at Day 0's average.

0

n/a

1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harvard-Harris poll, why do I keep doing that?

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harper-Harris poll should be out today. Not sure to what extent that will help us or hurt us, but if there's a way it can favor Trump, RCP will find it.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If you're using the word here, I suggest you look at the history of all of our comments. You might be right or you might be wrong. Things aren't as they seem here.

0

babendums

1 year ago

Yes and trump dropped farther than harris that is clear

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harper-Harris poll should be out today. Not sure to what extent that will help us or hurt us, but if there's a way it can favor Trump, RCP will find it.

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But will they want that poll. She had a high number in that one, if she polls lower, that would be a problem for her on the average. Did the last one published include Kennedy?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

The ironic thing about this is that Harris buyers want it to go to 31st in order to pick up the civiqs poll, but let's see how this plays.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, yeah RCP is like the Island of Misfit Toys for rightward-biased polls.

1

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Buying up the conservative side this time here (my second or third time doing so)

0

AppleADay

1 year ago

buying up the liberal side this time :(

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

"No I don’t, they have a trigger for graph update, but it’s irrelevant to the results, I don’t know what makes it update but when it updates it’s gonna /show 1.8 for the day" And what does the graph show for Day 0 (August 23)?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Effectively, 3-5 more hours and this ends. It’s Friday, who publishes polls after 17:00

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Trumpers are going to be unburdened by what has been

1

n/a

1 year ago

New poll: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1829603009598247294

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Riprcp, if this market was about what you think it is, which is the same as what I first thought it was, I'd be super long harris, and Harris would be at 98 cents. Instead, it's about trying to read the tea leaves on how a notoriously right wing site employs a polling average without any apparent tranpsarency or consistency in my opinion. I made money off this, so far (knock on wood), but I would have made far more if I'd cashed out of my shares when Harris was in the 90's.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

This market is about the graph. The additional context is very clear about that. You are of course free to pony up $750 if you disagree, but if you're wrong, you will lose it all.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

They'll probably add Elon's poll of his Twitter followers that had Trump at 70%

0

Pidor🐓

1 year ago

i'm joking, RCP is a right-wing shitshow that adds whatever polls they want

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Worldfox. I still think Kamala is more likely to one, but I'll take 9-1 or 10-1 odds given that this thing is as stable as Lindsay Lohan.

2

diddy

1 year ago

Effectively, 3-5 more hours and this ends. It’s Friday, who publishes polls after 17:00

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not August 31 in America. I assume this site uses EST, am I correct?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Isn’t this supposed to end asap RCP website updates to day August 31, which is midnight, 13 hours? Per rules?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@RipRcp, why's it irrelevant, the graph can change retroactively, it's part of the Kafkaesque magic of RCP.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Effectively, 3-5 more hours and this ends. It’s Friday, who publishes polls after 17:00

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm flipping too. What caused you to flip?

0

n/a

1 year ago

BIGGGG New Poll announced: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1829562397939376480

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We have a market on how many tweets Trump has, and yes, I've bet on it. Crazy's a relative term in some cases.

0

CollegeKidDownUnder

1 year ago

Derivative gambling - gambling on a gambling market is crazy

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can we get a market for whether his market proposal is accepted? :)

0

0xE42c9d2ef

1 year ago

Can we also get a market for this one or is that too meta?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh, wow, yes...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUM59Eh6vTw

0

0xE42c9d2ef

1 year ago

Can we also get a market for this one or is that too meta?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there a way to find the chart from when they did this last week?

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I didn't seen it on the list. I even went into the polls they used when it was Trump vs Biden. I could be wrong, however.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Does the RMG Research poll ever count?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I agree with @unamustbestopped on this. This is why I pared down my position. I have no idea if we're starting from 1.6 or 1.7 for Day 0. If it were 1.6 I'd be in big.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Afaict, this market will not resolve until you can scroll over and see Aug 31st on the graph - ie. : "once data for Day 8 (Aug 31) is first released on the graph." I don't believe this happens until RCP sees a poll that covers Aug 31st.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That would be a better name for their site lol.

0

Plutos

1 year ago

The fear in this market is so real after the right-wing cockslap from rcp yesterday. lol.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I haven't seen it before, and I've looked at the list obsessively.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Does the RMG Research poll ever count?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It looks like it's updated over the weekend before, but I could be wrong about that.

0

UncleSmurf

1 year ago

Anyone know if the RCP team is OOO today for the long weekend? Hope they are getting a chance to rest up before the election cycle really kicks in.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm nor confident either, that's why I sold most. I just don't fucking know. This is the wildest trade I've ever made.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

But maybe a marquette will come out and blow this up the other way. I'm not confident at all in my bet, but I do believe it was a bit mispriced.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not a RCP component, probably because it correctly shows that Kamala is winning.

3

Speculo

1 year ago

https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/harris-leads-by-5

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@names I'm not sure where the rules are on this, but Day 0 is now at 1.7. rcp is so stupid

1

Mr-Yolos

1 year ago

I don't see how Kamala can drop .3 and lose, it'll either be a Harris win or 50-50. 75c would mean anything above a 50% chance Harris wins is +EV, Harris is under priced a lot right now I think

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

This is the place to be if you were saying, "I like the anxiety and extreme volatility of betting on Trump tweets, but I just wasn't getting mindfucked enough." Seriously though, this group is mostly pretty constructive; I actually get helpful information from here.

4

TheCoconut

1 year ago

I'm not sure if I completely understand this market - so it's saying if Harris' result is better on the 30th than the 23rd then she wins? And it's not compared to the 8th day poll - that day will just indicate the end of the seven day period?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I picked the wrong decade to quit drinking...

1

Justifax

1 year ago

Correct, but it won't resolve until it shows up on the graph. RCP doesn't update the graph unless there is a poll for that period and even retro-actively updates the graph when new polls come in. 23rd used to be 1.5 and is now 1.7 In theory it could change again if a poll comes in with 23rd. Eg, a Marquette if it had Aug 23rd in the polling period could potentially bump up the 23rd value. I think. RCP process is mysterious.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Welcome to hell, lol

1

TheCoconut

1 year ago

I'm not sure if I completely understand this market - so it's saying if Harris' result is better on the 30th than the 23rd then she wins? And it's not compared to the 8th day poll - that day will just indicate the end of the seven day period?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

but I thought it'd be a win for us since Trump was +4 last time, so wouldn't it be like the Rasmussen poll?

0

n/a

1 year ago

Ahhhh fair enough... do we know which poll might be released tomorrow?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

HH has always been released on the 30th it seems.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Ahhhh fair enough... do we know which poll might be released tomorrow?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But wait a minute, the last HH poll had Trump at +4, so it'd be a net gain, right?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Harvard Harris came out on July 30th, it polls for July 26-28. It starts with direction of country which always polls badly and sets up people to vote against Incumbent. It's likely going to be +3 or more for Trump. Baseline is now 1.7 and if Pew drops off, things will drop.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Makes sense he'd say IVF because I don't know if ppl know IUI.

0

thakattack19

1 year ago

Prob won't say IVF cause his wife had IUI, not IVF.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If someone tells me how to find poll score, I'll look now.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Whens the last time it got released and what was the poll score for HH?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It was last released July 30 and had Trump up by +4. It's widely considered a garbage rightward leading poll due to poor methodology, so I imagine they rate it pretty high.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Whens the last time it got released and what was the poll score for HH?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

also when will they

0

n/a

1 year ago

I got an email from them confirming it

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

screenshot please

0

n/a

1 year ago

So apparently RCP will add IPSOS’s poll as it clearly has a 1 on 1 result (kamala +4). This should bring us to 1.8 🙏🙏🙏 https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-has-small-lead-over-trump-latest-reutersipsos-poll

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just sold part of it. Too much uncertainty and too much I don't know.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Why u selling brooo?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are both head to head. It appeared to be, but I've missed something more than once on this trade.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Kamala back to 1.8 with latest WSJ, like Yahoo, it’s July, old poll, should be updated within an hour hopefully

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't get it. Isn't he betting the same way we are?

0

emoney

1 year ago

@HaterzLosers, you're the goat

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It appears to be.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Is it a two-way poll excluding rfk jr?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/wsj-poll-harris-takes-narrow-lead-against-trump-in-neck-and-neck-race/55C7A910-9173-46A9-85C8-92C5D9BC6D7B

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

New WSJ poll (RCP component) shows Kamala up 1, previously -2

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

New WSJ poll (RCP component) shows Kamala up 1, previously -2

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What is "this"? Today's number or day 0 number?

0

ACat

1 year ago

If the oldest poll falls off this also goes up to 1.7.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Are any polls coming off the average in time?

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, then why are you long Trump?

0

Ferguson,Turd

1 year ago

to be fair i think Harris wins this only because Freddi is a dumbass and I have zero clue what im doing.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you figure? I'm hoping you're right.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Fuck graph didn’t update for me, still Kamala should win

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@tuck, I meant is it 1.5, 1.6, or 1.7; I know it's August 23

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What is our day 0 starting point?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It seemed like it was 1.5. Now it's saying 1.7 at Day 3

0

diddy

1 year ago

Guys don’t panic, this is baiting attempt, Kamala still has much higher winning chance than Trump

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What is our day 0 starting point?

0

diddy

1 year ago

Guys don’t panic, this is baiting attempt, Kamala still has much higher winning chance than Trump

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's our Day 0 starting point then? 1.5, 1.6, or 1.7?

0

diddy

1 year ago

I swear they hate Kamala to the bone

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

So our starting point for Day 0 is 1.5, 1.6 o 1.7?

0

diddy

1 year ago

How they massacred my Kamala…they don’t want to drop Reuters, instead they dropped this Quinnipiac

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't understand. She is up by 3 points from the last Quinnipiac poll.

0

diddy

1 year ago

How they massacred my Kamala…they don’t want to drop Reuters, instead they dropped this Quinnipiac

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Come on, we shared our information.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Mostly me tbh, don’t mind me

Kamala 538 odds 60%+ on Sept 6?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can I ask what the story was there?

1

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

Baal? You here? ... :( Kinda miss the lil' guy..

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe he's tired of winning

0

n/a

1 year ago

If Trump drops Vance, he wins. The question is, does Trump WANT to win? And yes, it's really that frekin simple!

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, maybe if they publish that Elon Musk internet poll

0

diddy

1 year ago

For Trump to take a lead, he would need to have 12 point margin over Kamala, Today; yesterday it was 2. Good luck Trump holders, Thanks Fredi, ref. Rasmussen

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Nevermind, they did +4 for Trump last July, oh wow hehe

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait a minute, did Harvard Harris have a previous number for Kamala vs trump?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait a minute, did Harvard Harris have a previous number for Kamala vs trump?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Ras +4 or +5? I think +5 has a pretty good chance. Harvard Harris will be big at +4. CNN? Probably +1 Trump or event. Was in june and july. Maybe yahoo not sure what they will do.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@sosuke normally if one side realizes it's wrong, they have to sell their no shares, which pushes up the value of the yes shares. But if the person with 90-98% of the shares, says, "I'm not backing down; I'm going to diamondhand this." Then there will be nothing to push up the yes shares except for more buyers.

0

n/a

1 year ago

Why is the share price still only at 75c with all the information pointing to the fact that Kamala can’t virtually lose this market?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But remember, they stopped using USA today as of last December for Biden, so I'm not so sure they'll use it here.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Morning Consult gives higher points to Trump than Biden, historically, contrary to USA Today. Morning Consult is at +4 Kamala. USA Today may as well give her +5, I think this may be an unexpected shocker

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait, why isn't he right, if they added +1 and no baseline, it's not an increase or decrease; it's just +1. Therefore, IF that happened, that would lower it. I'm hoping you'll tell me why I'm wrong.

1

n/a

1 year ago

Wouldn’t a +1 for Kamala bring her average down as its currently above that?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

IF they are included, I'm guessing if they had Biden only losing by two after that dumpster fire of a debate, they'd likely have Kamala up by more than two. A lot of other polls are showing her up by 5-6 points.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

USA Today, an RCP average component is releasing it's first poll since Kamala entered the race.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Wait a minute. It looks like the last time they used it was with Biden in December 2023. Maybe they dropped it.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

USA Today, an RCP average component is releasing it's first poll since Kamala entered the race.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

https://x.com/susanpage/status/1828911438498324542?s=46

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

RCP gets updated when a poll in their list of pollsters releases a finished poll. Rasmussen polls people for 4 days and then average the results from those 4 days. With the current results, that means +2 Trump with the current results (was +3 Trump last week). There's one day left so things might change, but he would need a significant jump to change the average of the rasmussen poll. The absolute worst for Kamala i can see happening here would be it staying +3 Trump here, which would still result in a win for Kamala in this market due to the yahoo poll.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

USA Today is releasing their poll tomorrow:

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

RCP gets updated when a poll in their list of pollsters releases a finished poll. Rasmussen polls people for 4 days and then average the results from those 4 days. With the current results, that means +2 Trump with the current results (was +3 Trump last week). There's one day left so things might change, but he would need a significant jump to change the average of the rasmussen poll. The absolute worst for Kamala i can see happening here would be it staying +3 Trump here, which would still result in a win for Kamala in this market due to the yahoo poll.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think I know the answer to this, but how does it work if a poll (one used by RCP) is released for the first time since Kamala entered ther race? I'm assuming that means percentage Kamala (or Trump) is ahead goes directly into the average, right?

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

RCP gets updated when a poll in their list of pollsters releases a finished poll. Rasmussen polls people for 4 days and then average the results from those 4 days. With the current results, that means +2 Trump with the current results (was +3 Trump last week). There's one day left so things might change, but he would need a significant jump to change the average of the rasmussen poll. The absolute worst for Kamala i can see happening here would be it staying +3 Trump here, which would still result in a win for Kamala in this market due to the yahoo poll.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

USA Today, an RCP average component is releasing it's first poll since Kamala entered the race.

2

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Actually, if you took the money Trump's daddy gave him and put it in an index fund, you'd be far wealthier than Trump is today.https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2021/10/11/its-official-trump-would-be-richer-if-he-had-just-invested-his-inheritance-into-the-sp500/

0

L114

1 year ago

I'd argue going from McDonalds to becoming the first female president is significantly more impressive than inheriting a bunch of money and investing it in housing during a good market.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How does MOE play a role in the average?

0

MrKangaroo

1 year ago

a poll from rasmussen or fox couldn't flip this with their 3 moe, free money thanks

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

"They deleted 6 polls." I didn't see it either, but she was trying to tell us this whole time. We were unburdened by what has been.

1

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

The Yahoo/YouGov poll released a few minutes ago will bring this to 1.40 once RCP updates. https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1828553147586846854?s=46

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But you know what really helped us? Those six polls that dropped off from earlier. Don't you see? She was trying to tell us all along: we were unburdened by what has been!!!

3

diddy

1 year ago

Some more good news, I think Kamala may actually gain point from Rasmussen, https://x.com/mark_r_mitchell/status/1828625548085481791?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But what about the Harvard-Harris poll? That still worries me.

0

diddy

1 year ago

Rasmussen will average tomorrow again at +3 according to dates already published by Mitchell

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But I took your advice and bought. up a fuckton of 1-1.4 for insurance.

1

diddy

1 year ago

lol this guy deserves a trophy

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm temporarily exiting RFK trade. I can't figure out why Morning consult wasn't counted but Rasmussen was. I thought it was poll to poll comparison, but that doesn't make sense either. I plan to maybe get back in, but I can't have this much tied up in some damn Rasumussen poll. I think maybe it's the grey bars that count and the white ones that don't on there.

0

diddy

1 year ago

lol this guy deserves a trophy

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Net negative? What do you mean? Sorry, I'm relatively new here.

0

diddy

1 year ago

lol this guy deserves a trophy

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there something I should know? lol

0

diddy

1 year ago

lol this guy deserves a trophy

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

who?

0

diddy

1 year ago

lol this guy deserves a trophy

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How does it compare to their previous poll?

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2024-harris-trump-polling-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-nevada-north-carolina/ Kamala +5 on a battleground states poll. Bodes very well for a big Kamala jump in CBS nationwide poll

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@augustopinochet7 When has UMA chosen to literally go with the title over the rules?

0

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Remember this market is about who will gain more if RFK Jr "drops", not the DNC effect on polls. The DNC effect will need to be substracted.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I believe, and I welcome someone to correct me if I'm wrong, that the way RCP calculates, it's based on not an average of the polls, but rather a comparison of her net increase in decrease within the same poll. So, for example, RCP posted a Morning Consult poll, which had Kamala at +4. However, it did not affect the average because she was at +4 with Morning Consult last week. Rasmussen had Trump at +3 last week. However, each week Kamala has gained a point in Rasmussen's polls. For Trump to gain from it, he'd have to get more than +3 (last week's total). Confusing as all hell if you ask me.

1

Eridpnc

1 year ago

So, which poll will balance out Rasmussen’s trump +25?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's not what the rules say. The rules say whoever has a net increase in the polls.

0

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Remember this market is about who will gain more if RFK Jr "drops", not the DNC effect on polls. The DNC effect will need to be substracted.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because it's after the DNC, which will have had more time to affect the polling numbers than RFK's endorsement.

0

Adam2

1 year ago

Correct. I guess people are expecting Harris to gain more because of the DNC.

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I gave it to your mom.

0

Scrounge

1 year ago

Any bet on Harris is a loss 😆 I've got an idea, instead of waisting your money on anything Harris, just give it to me 😆

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The graph is based on the RCP average, which is based on when the polls are published, am I correct?

0

GenericUser1234

1 year ago

The way I read the rules of this market is that it likely won't resolve until Sep 1st or 2nd, as it specifies that it the measurement is done by the graph (i.e. last day of survey being Aug 23 for start and Aug 30 for end), as opposed to the date of survey publication. Most likely, the first surveys that come out that survey through Aug 30 won't be until Sep 1 or 2nd. Hence, we will likely get the ABC poll and the Fox News poll

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Did you mean to say it "hasn't had a poll in five days" or "will not add a poll in five days"?

0

sigh

1 year ago

plot twist: RCP doesn't add another poll for 5 more days because its owned by Fredi

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not based on the coverage dates of the polls but is based on the change in RCP polling average from Day 0 (23) through the 30th. Am I correct?

0

GenericUser1234

1 year ago

The way I read the rules of this market is that it likely won't resolve until Sep 1st or 2nd, as it specifies that it the measurement is done by the graph (i.e. last day of survey being Aug 23 for start and Aug 30 for end), as opposed to the date of survey publication. Most likely, the first surveys that come out that survey through Aug 30 won't be until Sep 1 or 2nd. Hence, we will likely get the ABC poll and the Fox News poll

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Each week that has been the trend with Rasmussen. That doesn't mean it will happen of course, but given the DNC, it seems like a reasonable conclusion.

0

L114

1 year ago

Morning Consult didn't have a change, what makes you think Rasmussen will have a positive one?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

In Rasmussen's famously right-leaning poll, the gap has been narrowing. IF the trend continues, trump will be at +2, but that might push Kamala to 1.6 if our understanding is correct. Anyone else who wants to do the math can look at past results.

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

Morning Consult is the only pollster counted by RCP releasing a poll today. Their last poll was +4 Harris

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think you are right. I looked at the chart history. On 8/21, the only poll released was a Rasmussen poll that had Trump at +3. Kamala's average went UP from 1.4 to 1.5. Likely because the gap narrowed from Trump +4 in Rasmussen's previous poll.

0

L114

1 year ago

Poll just released. +4 again. Somehow RCP average still hasnt updated / seems unaffected??

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

3. It doesn't settle anything. It's Monday and many polls have yet to be released. Also, neither your poll or mine are factored into the RCP average.

1

PolyPollUser

1 year ago

Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

2. Why are you ignoring the poll from the day before that had harris up by 6 points?

0

PolyPollUser

1 year ago

Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

1. Echelon is a Republican polling organization, albeit one of the more credible ones.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Three things:

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Three things:

0

PolyPollUser

1 year ago

Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which poll are you talking about? There are others that show her up 7. Unlike you, I have a link.https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4846433-harris-leading-trump-by-7-points-poll/

0

PolyPollUser

1 year ago

Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

We already do. The RCP chart doesn't update until they post a new poll. When they do so, it will show us at +1.5 for Day 0.

1

PolyPollUser

1 year ago

Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not because of that. They only update the chart when they have a new poll that is in their average. Other weekends, they've updated.

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

They dont update shit during the weekends. Maybe later today

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Didn't say own, but dems will get a majority. I think Republicans wanting to build a wall doesn't sit right with them.

0

dreamer

1 year ago

I think it may have something to do with the rewards offered on this market

What will Trump say in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the over-under for "mixed-race shark"?

0

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's what they do.

0

cockbrain

1 year ago

why do republicans keep thinking about other people's genitals? it's weird.

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

86% is pretty high, no?? Texas is changing, a lot of northerners moving there, a lot of Hispanics. The pop of both is growing faster than the population of conservative whites. Texas is closer than you think. Don't think she'll win it, but it's not worth 15 cents, not by a long shot, sir.

0

LaClorox

1 year ago

Can somebody explain why odds of Rep winning are not higher? Especially with RFK planning on endorsing Trump, barring a successful attempt on his life, I would argue that Texas is more likely to secede than vote blue

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I also think you raise a good point. The black vote will put up big numbers for Kamala in Ohio than for Biden.

0

polibetter

1 year ago

Obama won both 2008 and 2012 actually

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harris is leading by probably 7 points in Michigan. Yet that's worth Trump getting $.36 in Michigan. We'll never get that to here. If we get to 18 or 19 cents, this has more upside then a lot of other bets. It's a risky bet, no doubt. The average is what's holding a lot of you from seeing what's happening. Kamala's momentum is insane, this race is going in a clear direction.

0

homosexual

1 year ago

I understand that, Aaron. But this is your best poll, and by your own underestimate, it's not a competitive margin. Additionally, one poll is essentially meaningless in a large election like this. What matters more is the average, which is clearly not competitive either. It's like a +9 Trump average

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's our only poll because there haven't been many done. There are sources inside Trump's inner circle that say there is a poll that says it's close. Is Kamala going to win OH? Probably not?

0

homosexual

1 year ago

I understand that, Aaron. But this is your best poll, and by your own underestimate, it's not a competitive margin. Additionally, one poll is essentially meaningless in a large election like this. What matters more is the average, which is clearly not competitive either. It's like a +9 Trump average

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Yes, but in fairness, Ohio has shifted to the right. I don't think she's likely to win. However, yes is not worth 11 cents, not by a long shot.

0

polibetter

1 year ago

Obama won both 2008 and 2012 actually

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What is going on?

1

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think it will happen, but if it happens, it has to happen in six days. It will be too late for the Ohio ballot after that. No Republican has ever won wtihout winning Ohio.

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

oh i absolutely agree with you. Especially for this particular market, since it's ending in August 31. Even if RFK replacing Vance happened, zero chance it's within the next 6 days.

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Let the MAGA people bet how they want. :)

0

SneakyPenguinPunter

1 year ago

Bffr. Am I going to have to come here and b*tch smack some MAGA alarmists? Here: make your money now, or miss out on a big opp. Georgia has just been updated to a “toss-up”. Cook political Ratings Arizona - Leans 🔴 ➡️ Toss Up 🟡 Nevada - Leans 🔴 ➡️ Toss Up 🟡 Georgia - Leans 🔴 ➡️ Toss Up 🟡

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

She'll get more than 70% of the black vote. That'd be a good one to bet on for this site.

0

SneakyPenguinPunter

1 year ago

% of black voters who say they would’ve picked biden over trump in a hypothetical ballot, in june: 59% % who would choose kamala harris, in july: 70% -reuters ipsos

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Not sure why you say that. Biden won Georgia in 2020, and all indications are Kamala will bring in more African-American voter suport and turnout.

1

AmericansCantBetHere

1 year ago

I suspect I'm partially to blame, Harris's chances of winning Georgia are slim, and that's from someone who thinks she'll win the general

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What stuns me is that this is trading at the same premium as Walz getting dumped.

1

0xb58E48719903Fb6e042bd32047Af01b61bE0ED1B-1724473718225

1 year ago

I am absolutely stunned that this isn't being bit more. Is Peter Thiel Suppressing this because Vance is his butt boy?

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I can't quit you...

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

bump* not bunch

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would being in the middle of the DNC mean she peaked. Usually there's a bunch after the convention.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Hey, if it hits 45 dollars, I'll sell :)

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

I hope he comes back i want more Kamala 45$ shares :(

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why's it crazy? Standard bump is 5 points from a convention. If they're already getting out in front of it, I'm guessign it's more.

0

diddy

1 year ago

2-3 point boost is totally crazy, but according to Trump pollsters, this is likely the probability

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I can buy Kamala winning Georgia for 39 cents? I love you crypto bros so much.

7

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Rasmussen is a famously rightward leaning poll. If Rasmussen is saying 7 points, it could actually be 3-4 points. Trump will most likely win Ohio, but I agree that 11-14 cents is underpriced.

0

homosexual

1 year ago

In what world is +7 Trump competitive for Harris? Let's see the average now: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ohio/. Oops, it's all +8 to +10 Trump!

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It's not disinfo. The chart hasn't updated because there haven't been new polls (that RCP average uses)

0

Remontada

1 year ago

How is it disinfo?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@justifax I was thinking you were correct, but after looking at it the last few days, the chart only updates when they receive new data. It hasn't updated for the last few days. It will update only when they get new data.

0

diddy

1 year ago

The way they censored RFK today, the polls may go back to Hillary urgency mode towards bias

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, are you referring to Elon Musks's internet poll?

0

0x979ed008e1128B4580333b9E672b33c51bB0c2a2-1723397206012

1 year ago

You guys do know that there was already a poll showing 68% going to Trump and 20% going to Harris?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Censored? What happened?

1

diddy

1 year ago

The way they censored RFK today, the polls may go back to Hillary urgency mode towards bias

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Also, I hope you're sitting down for this, Trump exaggerated. He was up 3 which was bad news for him since that was significantly less than previous Rasmussen polls.

2

diddy

1 year ago

Trump mentioned he’s got Rasmussen 5 point lead, is this troubling? That’s 2 point increase from yesterday

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

No, the Rasmussen poll hit right before the deadline. Rasmussen is famously a conservative leaning polling organization. The bad news is there will be another Rasmussen poll around Wednesday.

3

diddy

1 year ago

Trump mentioned he’s got Rasmussen 5 point lead, is this troubling? That’s 2 point increase from yesterday

Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

My thoughts exactly. I can't quit you...

0

diddy

1 year ago

Oh no...save me from temptations...

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why would being in the middle of the DNC mean she peaked. Usually there's a bunch after the convention.

1

SaulGoodmanEsq

1 year ago

I think her poll lead has pretty much topped. She's in the middle of the DNC and RFK will be endorsing Trump anyway. Some polls even have her losing ground.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Doesn't it take an extra day for RCP to record everything. I could be wrong.

0

MalikNabers

1 year ago

Shouldn’t the rules have an exact time that the polling is checked? Also it’s confusing about posting on the 8th day to get results for the 7th day? That’s not really how the polling average works

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Polls are conducted daily but it usually will take a week for it to start to be reflected. I suspect if there is a major movement of RFK voters to Trump it will be in stages. It seems like a lot of his remaining supporters are highly skeptical of both parties.

0

LMNOP

1 year ago

Trump's got a ton of RFK votes to pick up here. I don't see any good news here for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Any polls will pick up Harris's convention bump as well and that will be more reflected in the polls than RFK. Standard convention bump is +5 points though they've varied wildly between elections. If this were on a slow news week (can't remember last time we had one) otherwise, it would more accurately capture the effect of RFK.

0

LMNOP

1 year ago

Trump's got a ton of RFK votes to pick up here. I don't see any good news here for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Oh I see, thank you, Mr. Vandalay.

1

Remontada

1 year ago

Poly clarification. They wipe the order book before they add context. (Learned this just today on other RFK markets).

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What just happened??

1

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What numbers are they trying to argue?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Freddi, and friends of freddi, you should go on the discord and get them to use the #s as of right now. Some people are very weirdly trying to argue later numbers.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Sounds good, but I think I have more than enough of my capital tied up in how Harris performs this week... :)

1

diddy

1 year ago

I’ll give you a nice tip guys, go bet on 1-1.4 polling on Harris while it’s cheap. Figure out the math, she has averaged 1.5 this week, if she performs better then she this market on Kamala wins, if she loses, 1-1.4 market on Kamala polling will win. It’s a win-win at approx 60-65% bet, 35-40% profit

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

According to the rules that day would count as "day 0."

0

GenericUser1234

1 year ago

If Polymarket/UMA ends up deciding on that today counts as RFK dropping out, we need to know for sure what day counts as "day 0" for the timeline kickoff, otherwise we'll be blind trading without being able to track what is what

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It does. It's called the American stock market hehe.

1

yourrapist1776

1 year ago

A well constructed gambling portfolio should make up 30% of the average Americans IRA

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't get it. You still own shares.

0

dubzydubzy

1 year ago

Cope

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Some of the biggest and msot profitable whales on the site are yes. You've failed to earn a single dollar in net profit.

0

Malganis

1 year ago

I think it's clear that this market is WAY overbought, and it's no wonder some of the biggest whales have built enormous NO positions. Why? Because this market expire august 31, and not until the end of the race like it would be easy to assume if you only read the question.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

And when do you plan on sharing?

0

BM5II5KJN2

1 year ago

Got some good news, stay tuned

Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm confused; is the last one supposed to be 50+ or 100+ because the one above that is 50-99.

3

How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I also prefer. I suppose you could spread out your risk, but I agree.

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

wtf, these choices are actually gambling... at least last time we could apply logic with backets

How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That was how I looked at it last week. Trump is being unusually moderate. He still has billions in Truth Social stock.

0

Flipp

1 year ago

It's either zero or +10 lol

How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

true enough, I'm just only going to if I get decent prices. I won't be as aggressive as last time.

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

wtf, these choices are actually gambling... at least last time we could apply logic with backets

How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Which part of that was untrue?

1

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Why is the AI so partisan? "Donald Trump recently held a press conference at his New Jersey golf club, where he made several personal attacks on Kamala Harris and promoted falsehoods about the economy. This event highlights Trump's ongoing engagement with the media and his tendency to use social platforms to express his views."

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Why this weekend, why not on the day of Kamala's DNC speech or the day after?

1

BM5II5KJN2

1 year ago

It's not going to happen unfortunately, only chance will be this weekend

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The rest of August, I'll be listening to Kamala's speeches going, "You'd better not say 'Jew'"

4

Doable

1 year ago

I also have done terrible things for this website, that im not particularly happy with ☹️

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@stevenbonnell thanks I'll give that a try. I was getting so frustrated, literally checked 20 links lol

0

Donkov

1 year ago

At what time is she scheduled to speak?

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But this is to introduce econ policy, abortion might be too much of a reach, she might want to reach voters who aren't voting on that issue. I imagine she's locked up the pro-choice vote.

0

Highboard

1 year ago

She said "abortion ban" in her last rally speech in Arizona.

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I believe she is unveiling her economic policy in the speech. If you have contrary information, I'd love to see it.

0

StevenBonnell

1 year ago

Abortion NO voters are gonna get fucked. This is your normal rally in a state she has not been in a lot. She is going to hammer the abortion issue since a shit ton of ppl care about that.

What will Kamala Harris say in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what JD Vance said, but in a different context...

1

idfkanything

1 year ago

Well, I fat-fingered buying Y couch instead of NO couch at .70c. Soooo now I’m just riding it out and hoping for miracle lol

What will Kamala Harris say in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Holy shit

0

BenCM

1 year ago

Put that Supreme Court ruling in the context of an individual who has openly told us — Donald Trump — that he will be a dictator on day one. Think about it in the context of that individual who has basically said he intends to weaponize the Department of Justice against his political enemies. Think about it in the context of that individual who even called for — and I’m going to quote — “terminating” the Constitution of the United States of America. Think about that.

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't bet it against it, personally.

0

Agathocles

1 year ago

Gouging 5+ times is so funny

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

But those speeches weren't just about her economic policies. They were all her key points. She'll use a euphemism in an econ speech if she mentions it.

0

5to5000

1 year ago

She's been mentioning the same economic policies in the same speeches in the days before while saying abortion

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's what she said. Sorry couldn't resist.

0

homosexual

1 year ago

you literally have zero positions right now

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Given Trump's environmental policies, oceanfront in AZ doesn't sound half bad. I'd rather buy that than Truth Social stock.

0

Scrounge

1 year ago

You still thinking she’s gonna win the election? 😂 i’ve got ocean from property in Arizona, I’d like to sell you.

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I spent literally 45 minutes searching through articles, and I couldn't find it. I finally saw one that said "to be determined," so maybe we don't know. So annoying they wouldn't just say.

1

Donkov

1 year ago

At what time is she scheduled to speak?

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Maybe I'll do the first one win or lose

0

k33r0s

1 year ago

selling my seed and blood. Let them suck me dry.

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I read, but I'm just confirming. Always paranoid that I missed something. Better to ask a stupid question than lose money is my thinking. Thanks

3

bbman1214

1 year ago

No. Trump a few days ago described a Tesla without saying the word 'Tesla' multiple times and that did not count. Read the rules

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

gm

0

MALDEMER

1 year ago

gm to all mention market bettooors

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It'd be great if it was. I'll bet no if there's a chance of a decent payout.

1

singa

1 year ago

where is "unburdened" on this list lol

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Your first two reasons are actually good arguments for No. Trump won the no audience debate and it gives him the chance to reach people.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Trump's best debate was vs. Biden w no audience. ABC as host gives him the opportunity to reach Kamala's base and sway Kamala voters. I wou wouldn't be surprised if she agrees to let him have the audience in exchange for whatever she wants

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There is a clear trend though. She's up in all the swing states, and Trump is spiraling.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

538 has Harris up 3pts on Trump...not that significant considering Trump was up by 3 pts on Biden in 2020.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/.

What will Kamala Harris say in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I dodged a bullet. I was thinking of putting money on no for Venn Diagram.

0

What will Kamala Harris say in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, in what context is Kamala going to say, "Jew" on stage.

0

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You think she'll couch it in those terms? :)

0

DanZai

1 year ago

What if she word salads and says price couching?

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Just to confirm, if Kamala says, "A woman's right to choose," does that count?

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@idfkanything anything JD Vance sits on is, by definition, a loveseat.

0

dnd123

1 year ago

polls will continue to move against trump and he will absolutely blame this couchfucking freak

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Xijinping is right. When you're behind, you want as many debates as possible. It's no problem for Kamala if there is or isn't a debate. Therefore, she has every reason to say, as she said, I'll discuss other debates only after Trump agrees to what was originally stipulated.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Pew has them tied: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/08/14/harris-energizes-democrats-in-transformed-presidential-race/pp_2024-8-14_harris-trump_0-01/

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Because someone is willing to take the other side of the trade. Because Trump is making his own set of claims, I imagine.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

If the No Live Audience + Push Button Speaking was transferrable from Biden to Harris, why is there even a market for this? Please share a link so I can liquidate my position if I'm missing something

Trump fires campaign manager in August?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I know one thing. Someone's going to take the fall for Trump's declining campaign fortunes, and it damn sure won't be Trump.

0

Trump fires campaign manager?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It says "or otherwised removed." So I'm correct in thinking that covers it?

1

Whome

1 year ago

Many people who are fired "resign" in order to "spend more time with family."

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have a question: when you said "Trump never lies" were you joking or serious?

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Event calendar shows Sept 9, 10, 11 are the only dates blocked off at Independence Hall in Philly. Https://www.nps.gov/inde/planyourvisit/calendar.htm

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Hey, he made love to that couch, and was just letting it do its duty as a premenopausal receptacle.

2

dnd123

1 year ago

polls will continue to move against trump and he will absolutely blame this couchfucking freak

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Someone should look into that

0

sirhc

1 year ago

A lot of people are saying he fucked a couch

Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't understand. How does this play into whether or not it's live?

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Event calendar shows Sept 9, 10, 11 are the only dates blocked off at Independence Hall in Philly. Https://www.nps.gov/inde/planyourvisit/calendar.htm

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

我写错了， 我要写， “谢谢您”

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

Revealed: Trump said on Truth Social that the 1 extra tweet yesterday was to offer a high-quality recording of the interview. He won't tweet anymore. https://x.com/yashar/status/1823573635006902746

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

谢谢黁

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

Revealed: Trump said on Truth Social that the 1 extra tweet yesterday was to offer a high-quality recording of the interview. He won't tweet anymore. https://x.com/yashar/status/1823573635006902746

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

self-sabotage, which, to be honest, Trump has been known to do. That is what keeps me up at night with this.

0

n/a

1 year ago

What are some likely possible scenarios where Trump would tweet more? I don't see any.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Let's hope not. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous as hell.

0

Paganheat

1 year ago

65 hours left…not gonna happen.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's that?

0

GamblorX

1 year ago

B1 back to 90...

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The Elon one also expired at noon. However, what I find odd is that it started at 9 but ends at noon. What's up with that?

1

plant

1 year ago

hmm just noticed this market resolves on Friday at NOON rather than MIDNIGHT. Seems weird.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There's a link to the counter in the rules. It's at 12 as of now.

0

Gregorius

1 year ago

if all current retweets and Space counts total should be at 11 right? Also, are we sure they count as "posts"?

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

now 12

0

strimmlarn

1 year ago

correct.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

For further context, that means he lost $200 million USD when the stock fell 5% yesterday.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He owns 4 billion in Truth Social stock (DJT). His shares unlock in Novemmber, I believe.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

He owns 4 billion in Truth Social stock (DJT). His shares unlock in Novemmber, I believe.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

1 year ago

I find it strange Trump is letting the momentum on Twitter die out. His posts easily get 50x more exposure compared to truth social. He needs it to reach a broader audience and stay relevant

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Well it was close, I discovered in teh nick of time. I almost bet on no Iran attack by Friday. You'll probably be right, but I didn't have the bballs to after the Israeli intelligence report. Usually Iranian restraint is a good bet (I used to play the oil market)

1

-nothingburger-

1 year ago

What if he posted exclusively to pump his Elon interview and now stop posting?

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

That's the conclusion I came to a few hours ago. I own the shares I do of this in case I'm wrong, to hedge my bet on 11-15.

1

-nothingburger-

1 year ago

What if he posted exclusively to pump his Elon interview and now stop posting?

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'll telll you one thing making me nervous why is 21-25 suddenly rallying?

1

Munners

1 year ago

Sounds like youre gambling within your means lmao

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Lol, yeah that'll be the day.

0

Munners

1 year ago

Sounds like youre gambling within your means lmao

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

The stock fell 5%. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a nervous wreck and paid someone to wake me up if there's another Trump tweet.

0

Munners

1 year ago

I think the tap off (no more tweets) or completely on (400 unhinged tweets in next 48 hours) is a solid thesis

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I invested in both. At first I was gung ho 50+ but then when I saw this could be a one day thing. Some guy on Twitter who is a Trumpie told me they saw an email from him saying it was only for one day. I also found that he owns 4 billion USD of Truth Social, so he can't tweet too much.

1

Munners

1 year ago

I think the tap off (no more tweets) or completely on (400 unhinged tweets in next 48 hours) is a solid thesis

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What seemed to be a simple trade is actually far more complex and nerve wracking than I imagined. Not sure why I expected otherwise. lol

1

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

11, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong.

3

yaoyingya

1 year ago

Has he tweeted 9 times today?

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is anyone else buying both extremes to cover their asses or is it just me?

1

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

doubt it

0

n/a

1 year ago

How about Trump gone tomorrow?

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Technically he'd be a transvestite or cross dresser but not transitioning, but stay tuned.

0

MRConservativeMan

1 year ago

No, the GOP is not going to put a trans at the head of the ticket.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I thought it was Anita Loveseat.

1

Maxwell-Toilet-Destroyer

1 year ago

I heard JD has a new nickname... Vladamir Futon.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You mean the fact that it ends on the 16th and isn't a full week?

0

JohnathanDoe

1 year ago

I think you're missing something, aaron28a

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ok, can we be adults here and you tell me what I'm missing?

0

JohnathanDoe

1 year ago

I think you're missing something, aaron28a

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Such as?

1

n/a

1 year ago

Some hard lessons about to be learned in here this week

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Can someone explain the case for "No" on this. This seems close to a lock, but maybe I'm missing something.

1

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

There's somewhat of a risk she wins by more than that. Not saying it's likely, but it's possible. You may have a point though. I'll check it out.

0

osunam

1 year ago

why buy this at 25-27c when you can buy Dem EC margin 65-104 for 15c which is essentially the same thing and gives you coverage for NC.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What did you hear?

0

Ferguson,Turd

1 year ago

Hearing reports things were found

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

link?

0

Ferguson,Turd

1 year ago

Hearing reports things were found

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

How do you know this?

0

JanusofDoors

1 year ago

The jump was 1 guy doing market orders because he doesn't understand why people do limits

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Was something found in the hacked file?

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I don't think so. He's smarter than that.

0

0x62F950c99676f044D6AEBaD3c9dE17256e9Dc3b7-1722042343484

1 year ago

When asked if Vance was ready to serve Trump said "VP has no impact on the election". So clearly Trump isn't happy with JD, but does he actually believe VP doesn't matter?

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'd be a good way to get attention again. Or if he wants to do it when fewer are paying attention, he an do it when Kamala gives her DNC speech.

0

idfkanything

1 year ago

Trump loves a headline and firing people. JD is gone if Trump lags in the polls in a meaningful way.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

It was a perfect sectional

0

Coconut-Pilled🥥

1 year ago

I agree, why just the other day he was articulating his love of couches to me. It was a perfect phone call.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm so happy I live in a world where this is even possible.

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

To compare himself to Martin Luther King, why else?

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

Why else would trump just schedule an impromptu news conference today

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

tbh, I'm a little nervous about this trade. Less nervous now that I see who the top holder is.

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Is there a way to see volume on this chart?

0

Joe Biden reinstated as Dem Nominee at DNC?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Did Jill Biden suggest this in the Discord?

0

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Does anyone have a schedule of which polls will be released next week. I spent an hour looking to no avail?

0

When will Kamala announce VP pick?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If someone leaks it before the formal announcement, then that counts. That's my undrerstanding, so it's too many variable for me personally given the odds. Just my preference

1

muusd

1 year ago

What about the rules stand out to you?

Arizona Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think it's undervalued with or without Mark Kelly, but I should shut up, I'm not done buying shares.

0

Concepts-of-a-Plan

1 year ago

If you think Mark Kelly is a likely pick for Dem VP, Democrat YES is undervalued here.

When will Kamala announce VP pick?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

If you don't know you don't actually have to bet on it.

1

7153649820

1 year ago

HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO KNOW WHEN

When will Kamala announce VP pick?

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I have nothing invested in this either way, but my friendly advice is to carefully read the conditions before betting on this one.

0

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Have you taekn a look at the merchandise your side is trying to move?

0

0x89DE7F402d808d5b79701363f4BF628528432BCe-1721932727274

1 year ago

the issue with Harris is she can’t articulate…

Georgia Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I think it's wonderfully mispriced, don't fix it till a few days from now, I need to buy more shares!

0

PressC

1 year ago

This state went blue in 2020, sent 2 blue senators...they just got an energy and enthusiasm boost into the AA vote. This is atrociously mispriced.

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Probably not

0

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

Austin will carry the state for the Dems easily... right?

Texas Presidential Election Winner

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

When did Texas cede land to Mexico, and yeah, same questions as paizon

0

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

Texas is the last state which ceded land, in this case to Mexico (border dispute involving a river)