#18819
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Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
n/a
9 months ago
Vance won big, look at every prediction now. trump is up.
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0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
9 months ago
4 polls so far. Yougov show 42-41 to Vance, they're unbias (+0.2% lean towards Trump in Nate Silver house effects). CNN had 51-49 Vance, they tend to be +0.8% Trump (NS h.e.). Focaldata had 50-50, they are unbias (+0.2% Harris NS h.e.). JL have 50-43 Vance, they're Trump simpers (+2.5% Trump NS h.e, MASSIVE bias). So...Ipsos? +1.7% Harris NS h.e., MASSIVE bias. In other words. 3 unbias pollsters show a tie; 1 Trump simp shows Vance winning; and we're waiting for the results from a Harris simp. Hmmm, 90 cents being sold for under 40 cents anyone? Ipsos isn't bias, but they're statistically bias; and we might as well be betting on if Trafalgar or Rasmussen is going to favour Trump vs polling averages; sometimes they surprise and have a good Kamala result; but basically their bias is greater than margin of error. I have bet as much as I'm comfortable with. Good luck all. Fwiw I think the debate performance was a tie ;)