Which countries will Trump tariff in first 100 days?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

8 months ago

Nobody offically recognizes Taiwan as a country. The offical U.S. stance is that Taiwan is a part of China, and China has been tariffed. This market should resolve YES.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

9 months ago

Why do you think McConnel is a definitive NO?

0

worldkoala

9 months ago

Getting a definitive yes from Graham is big for Gabbard, but I think she's still quite vulnerable. It seems like potential nos (9 total) are: Moran (probably yes but hasn't said), Collins (possibly/probably yes after "happy"?), Capito (previously expressed concerns, hasn't said anything further), Tillis (if she doesn't get unanimous GOP support in committee), Lankford (previously a yes but bothered re Snowden in hearing), Young (possibly a yes after Elon but I suspect still leans no based on his military background and his foreign policy), Murkowski (hasn't said, probably leans no), Curtis ("more questions than answers" after hearing), McConnell (almost definite no). One R vote will sink her in the intel committee if all members vote. With the votes being secret and Moran, Collins, Lankford, Young and Curtis all on the committee, she still faces a big risk of not getting a positive recommendation out of committee. (It's hard to see all of these maybe-nos breaking yes given the secret vote.) If she doesn't get through the committee successfully but still makes it to the floor and Tillis follows through on his prior guidance, she can't get more than 50 votes.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

9 months ago

Black Monday 📉

2

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826289

1

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Iran is done playing around 💪

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1850423740913381767

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1850423740913381767

2

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Trump's a businessman, he's going to get it done

2

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

$62K here we come

0

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Whoah!

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

You're a fucking asshole

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

She's losing the male demographic by huge margins so there's nothing to be lost here, and if the interview goes bad the MSM will play it off as Joe Rogan's a conspiracy loony.

3

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

MAKE CRYPTO GREAT AGAIN!

2

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Is there a Q&A session? Trump will certainly be asked about WLF

1

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

He'll hit one oil depot just to say that he didn't cuck to Biden

2

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

“We’re going to make America the leader in crypto—nobody knows crypto like I do. We’re gonna have the best Bitcoin, the strongest Bitcoin—We’ll unleash innovation, create jobs, and secure our financial future—we've got to do it, we have no choice, if we don't do it China will—I stand here today to proudly and strongly proclaim, all Bitcoins will be mined in the USA—we need more mining, there's so much mining to be done, we're going to dig them up quickly, believe me."

4

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Also his coin launches in a few hours and the sales are going to be massive, so it will likely be on his mind too

1

ThisIsMyName

1 year ago

Kamala had some statement about crypto (specifically in regards to black men) yesterday. I see this at 5-6c bet having lots of upside

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Netanyahu would never lie to a lame duck president

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

We've gathered the evidence and are doing a thorough analysis. I'll see you folks in front the UMA board, this isn't over.

4

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://vocaroo.com/1mxRS5ADIesK

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

In these disputes precedent has decided that intent supercedes how the actual word comes out. Trump clearly said Venezwul, to which he was obviously referring to Venezuela. Don't believe me? This is the Walz-CNN market, and we're in the exact same spot: https://prnt.sc/px2n2aNLxrGM

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

If we decided markets based on pronouciation these markets would be a disaster, because everyone has different speaking patterns, dialects, and garble words all the time.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

In these disputes precedent has decided that intent supercedes how the actual word comes out. Trump clearly said Venezwul, to which he was obviously referring to Venezuela. Don't believe me? This is the Walz-CNN market, and we're in the exact same spot: https://prnt.sc/px2n2aNLxrGM

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

In these disputes precedent has decided that intent supercedes how the actual word comes out. Trump clearly said Venezwul, to which he was obviously referring to Venezuela. Don't believe me? This is the Walz-CNN market, and we're in the exact same spot: https://prnt.sc/px2n2aNLxrGM

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

It's obvious his intent was to say Venezuela, and I think it sounds phonetically close enough. I'd refer you guys to the CNN-Walz precedent set a few months ago, that one was a lot more debateable and it resolved in the affirmative.

7

Bengals vs. Giants

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Giants are terrible holy smokes!

1

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

MAGA count?

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Gun bros nice

1

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

All the countries are emptying their insane asylums and sending to the usa

2

Aquati

1 year ago

Context for "Insane Asylum"? Why it's so high?

Fed Interest Rates: November 2024

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Powell has repeatedly said that one of the biggest mistakes of the GFC is they didn't cut rates quick enough when it was obvious the economy was downturning, and that the economic indicators often lag.

0

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

About 45min, rallies usually last 1.5hrs, another 45min for 8 more borders

4

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

22 borders right?

2

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I count 21 borders

1

yomamais

1 year ago

how many kamalas and borders?

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I count 18 borders half an hour in

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Dang you really discredited the guy with no shares, you got me good! My market manipulation attempts are failing!

1

Mountainman

1 year ago

Brand new account yet you know the inner workings of UMA voting? Nobody saw you post so you buy shares in attempt to get more people to see your scam? The sock puppet account market manipulation is so fun to watch. Watching stupid people try to scam is so much fun. I am happy I have been able to bring people’s attention to the same scam you guys try in every market.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Careful guys the UMA bros are on the NO side

0

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I went to the border, she's never been to the border, she's the border czar, she knows nothing about borders, she wants open borders, they're coming across our border because she opened the border

2

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Homeless crisis cause border, drug problem cause border, house problem cause border, affordability cause border, crime problem cause border, Newscum wants open borders, I had the best border, Biden has the worst border

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Homeless crisis cause border, drug problem cause border, house problem cause border, affordability cause border, crime problem cause border, Newscum wants open borders, I had the best border, Biden has the worst border

3

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Trump took the Ross and Lex interview and turned them into extended campaign ads, I don't think Joe wants that

2

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Where's Gavin Newscum?

5

What will Trump say during California rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://prnt.sc/IahUbGaYUDsv

0

Matthias

1 year ago

California is not a borderstate, immigration isn't a huge topic in Coachella. From all that I could gather the main topics are gonna be inflation, gas prices and housing prices. the economy seems to be the main issue for Californians. This is big for drill baby drill and green new scam. Im also pretty sure border 30+ wont hit, maybe 20 but at those odds Ill take the risk for sure. It has missed most of the latest rallies, while hitting yesterday cause its Aurora, its Trumps main example of a city being "overrun by migrants" It barely made 30+ there. Missile defense shield is hit or miss, N better than the odds portray but he could weave in a national defense bit into the rest. Feel free to respond and share your opinion if you disagree.

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

This song is TIGHT

0

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Everyone I know is listening to this song

0

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

LOVE THIS SONG!!!!!!

2

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

The only thing I know about hip hop is to spam fire and skull emoji 🔥🔥🔥 💀💀

0

Diddy sex tape released before November?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Nothing ever happens

0

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Still #1 on YouTube music trending! Wow!

3

Diddy sex tape released before November?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"... must be video footage involving sexual acts directly depicting the genitals..." It's clear that gentials must be visible in the video to verify there is infact sexual intercourse taking place. We can't prove intercourse is acutally occuring if its censored.

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

it says "directly depicting." If it's censored the video was obviously depicting it.

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

All my friends are playing this song

4

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

LOVE THIS SONG!!!!

2

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

This shit is tight af deadass gonna make the 100 bet fr 🔥🔥🔥🔥💀💀💀

3

Milton landfall at what category?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://prnt.sc/8LxqYvt_88Dy The storm on the other side of Florida is going to distort Milton's main wind flow, just as Milton starts getting choked by Cuba. Will probably make landfall as a Cat1

1

Diddy sex tape released before November?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Rules are specific there needs to be visible genitlia, any outlet that gets a hand on a tape would censor it.

0

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

This song goes hard, everyone I know is listening to this 🔥🔥

0

Milton landfall at what category?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

This storm is being overhyped to perpetuate the climate change agenda, will make landfall as a tropical depression

1

Milton landfall at what category?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Fake storm

2

KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Love this song

1

Milton landfall at what category?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Overhyped storm

1

Diddy sex tape released before November?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"Qualifying "sex tapes" must be video footage involving sexual acts directly depicting the genitals of any individual(s) shown." We need to see private parts, if a tape is released by any major outlet, it's going to be censored

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

He's going to deny it, but the big insinuation is that's it's Adam

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Wow the rug pulled Sassaman hard

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"Will PolyMarket be shutdown by the FBI before December?"

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

We need a market whether or not someone will be investigated, everything about this screams ponzi scheme

0

PolyRig-Fried

1 year ago

@Chad and the Yes holders: if you need a name and a face, Kevin Chan of UMA voted NO with 32.5% of all shares. I wonder if this constitutes fraud in the US, since he's gaining financial incentive from voting on false outcomes. Interestingly, Pablo Maldonado of UMA voted No, but he has only has 3.3% of all shares. Source: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I guess the 20 headlines timestamped Sep 30 saying Israel is invading Lebanon were fake and gay

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

So there's 60% of the vote left, if the rest of the remaining vote goes 50-50, you'll be very close to a lack of consensus. Call me crazy, but this isn't over yet.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Who talked me into buying this shit? FUCK!!

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"Will there be a criminal investigation into the Israel-Lebanon market by Dec. 31?"

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I smell a couple FBI raids

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I think no consensus and then 50-50 is the most likely outcome here. I don't see a NO resolution considering the laundry list of news headlines and prior markets.

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Walz is too cheap here, Ipsos seems to have a heavy left-bias

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://prnt.sc/epbvFmo3Bfw1 This was the last vote that happened a couple hours after the first reports of invasion, and a few hours before the deadline. UMA felt they needed more information to render a verdict--today it's pretty obvious we have enough evidence that Israel has invaded Lebanon.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Reveal phase doesn't start until 19hrs

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

What's the vote count? I went to the link, but couldn't figure out how to get t the count

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Why do you guys this it's Sassaman?

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Satoshi's last post was in 2014 a few months before Finney's death. So this is indicative of Finney. Satoshi often used British slang and almost exclusively posted in UK timezone, so this is indicative of Back. Yet to hear a reasonable argument as to why Sassaman would be credited.

1

What will Trump Say during Pennsylvania rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Tesla bros nice snipe

0

What will Trump Say during Pennsylvania rally?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Ugh I was so sure he'd say golf, especially when mentioning his 2nd assassination attempt.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

A guy with -$3M worth of losses just bought 70K worth of NO. I think this is bullish signal.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Where does it say evidence after the deadline can't be considered? Doesn't this defeat the purpose of voting "too early" (i.e., we need to wait for more information?)

2

Car

1 year ago

"Enter" and "Invade" are 2 markets with completely different rules. The rules for this "Invade" market were not satisfied at the time of the proposal before the deadline. That is why it went to P4. Whatever happens after the deadline, should obviously not be considered. Even if you want to consider the new evidence from October, there is still no "Intent to establish control over any portion of Lebanon".

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Where does it say anywhere that voters can only consider evidence before the deadline? Does't that kinda defeat the purpose of voting "too early?"

0

Tenebrus7

1 year ago

Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Give me evidence for No and I'll switch sides

4

Tenebrus7

1 year ago

Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

I was almost gaslit into thinking I was crazy for buying at 13c, glad the truth is prevailing. I really want to believe in this site.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

They're just visiting

0

DonaldinhoTrumpito

1 year ago

So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

If you're still on the fence scroll through the UMA evidence discord and you'll see why YES is rocketing back up. Tons of news articles and Tweets being cited, with nothing but conjecture and thesaurus pumping from the NO side. This is looking pretty definitive, wish I had deeper pockets

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"Israeli military begins ground invasion in Lebanon" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ground-invasion.html

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

All that matters is the truth, and I see nothing but facts and evidence from Yes-bros, and nothing but demoralization tactics from no-bros.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Every media outlet was expecting an invasion, to which the widely reported incursion began on September. 30, and what today's context concretely confirms was the start of an offensive to control territory.

18

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 16 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

9:45PM EDT: "A few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon," the military said. "These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-begins-ground-operation-southern-lebanon-against-hezbollah/

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Sep. 30: "The Israeli army says it has begun a “targeted and demarcated ground operation in southern Lebanon” against what it called Hezbollah targets. It said the operation is under way in several villages near the border and that Israeli warplanes are backing the ground troops." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed?update=3212735

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

6:41PM CDT: ""A few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon," the military said. "These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel." https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-lebanon-ground-invasion-rcna172913

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

How is this market 10c?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

"The Israeli military says it has begun a "limited, localized" ground operation against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon." CBS 9:45PM EST

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

9:45PM EDT: www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-begins-ground-operation-southern-lebanon-against-hezbollah/ "The Israeli military says it has begun a "limited, localized" ground operation against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon."

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

9:45PM EDT https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-begins-ground-operation-southern-lebanon-against-hezbollah/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Sep. 30 9:45 EDT: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-begins-ground-operation-southern-lebanon-against-hezbollah/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 year ago

Sep. 30 9:45PM EDT https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-begins-ground-operation-southern-lebanon-against-hezbollah/

0