ncfom

Brandon Aiyuk next team?

ncfom

11 months ago

Heres your chance

0

farigami64

11 months ago

Steelers had so much value if only this market had any depth

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

ncfom

11 months ago

Lol people betting on him to say it doesnt mean they think he cares about crypto. Honestly its the opposite and were just betting on a pander. $400/yr profit keep crushing those fools mate

3

Neotho

11 months ago

Not one to brag on these sites but i've made probably a few hundred off of these dumbasses who think Trump gives a shit about crypto. I'd tell you to keep putting money on that shit but I know you're never gonna learn no matter what I say.

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

ncfom

11 months ago

Damn bro $400 profit in a year, youre crushing those fools. You actually think people betting on that think he cares about crypto?

0

Neotho

11 months ago

Not one to brag on these sites but i've made probably a few hundred off of these dumbasses who think Trump gives a shit about crypto. I'd tell you to keep putting money on that shit but I know you're never gonna learn no matter what I say.

Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?

ncfom

11 months ago

Copium

2

DeucePapi

11 months ago

ABC is not a platform, it's a broadcasting company or a host at best. Debates take place in venues, like the Kennedy Center, or on a platform like Zoom. This is a terrible resolution.

Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?

ncfom

11 months ago

Holy cope here

0

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

Try harder for exit liq

0

winbet

11 months ago

some logo design people are saying its Andy also. Job requests for andy graphic design

U.S. Recession in 2024?

ncfom

11 months ago

You think theyre going to come back and payout correctly when its revised a month later? Nah

0

n/a

11 months ago

Someone said the Q2 advance estimate 2.8% has no way go negative, I did some research for you. 2008 Q1 advance estimate GDP increase 0.6%, the revision -2.3% , that's 2.9% margin. So don't say "no way", there is always a way, lol

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

Here for profit not keks

0

Pqtriot

11 months ago

Kek zio-baggie

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

Damn i thought i was diversified from equities

0

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

Nate thinks theyre holding the release until they have a favorable outcome. Hard to explain otherwise at this point. https://x.com/natesilver538/status/1820503928032924127?s=46&t=nxepKsXFC5yAW1nV6LbSRQ

0

Whome

11 months ago

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-says-election-is-now-a-toss-up-as-harris-takes-polling-lead

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

Never

1

monkeyboy77

11 months ago

Do we know when Elliot is thinking of releasing the next model iteration?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

ncfom

11 months ago

while true, it doesnt matter, the media is only criticizing trump for it

0

MSGRallySpeaker

11 months ago

Additionally, Kamala is taking the stance of calling him chicken for bailing on the ABC one, so although its letting him pull the strings and move things into his court, I think there is likelihood that she takes it on to not also appear as chicken.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

ncfom

11 months ago

And? Couldnt GAF about any of them, but why are you scared to talk in front of your opposition, nonetheless an audience at all?

0

farigami64

11 months ago

Are you kidding me? This proposal isn't a debate, its putting Kamala on trial at a Trump rally. She would never agree to this, even if she wasn't the frontrunner.

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

Lmao paper hands

1

DECRAPisDUMBandGAY

11 months ago

Clown who pumped for days, finally sold off at a LOSS, ha ha ha! LMAO

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

The original point was that the polls are only a fraction of the formula. Prior, she was worse than biden elsewhere. In theory, ground made in polls shouldnt cover ground lost in fundamentals, but with how long this has taken its probable the formula is tweaked from what it was with Biden.

1

PaeniscusKyu

11 months ago

538's polling average (model input) is now H+1.5. It was B-3.2 before the dropout. If Morris turns on this "model" as Trump leading after a 4.7 shift he will lose essentially any credibility he had left. So place your bets accordingly.

Kamala campaign accepts crypto donations before September?

ncfom

11 months ago

There really is no “I” though. Just open a wallet and make a few tweets.

0

SusanWarren,HR

11 months ago

Out of $331M in Q2 donations for Trump, only $3M came from crypto. I'm guessing the ROI isn't there for Harris to begin accepting crypto.

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

Youve commented more than anyone, with no skin in the game still, and youve been wrong literally every time hahaha

1

MurkKellyVP

11 months ago

Shapiro officially out: https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/1819072316292178267

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

@BananaJammies you gotta be smoking crack to think Andy has sway in KY lmao. And why do you keep bringing up his wife’s shooting as if that has anything to do with his viability for VP. Sounds like a ton of cope

1

anthony9

11 months ago

50-1 on buttigieg is nuts. this bet is the manchester city of us politics

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

@MurkKellyVP again, why does this give him any edge as a candidate??? Cause we may feel sympathetic? The only way thats really relevant to his running is that hes hard on gun control now. You have 0 skin in the game and are just affirming your own beliefs.

0

ncfom

11 months ago

What does his wife being shot have to do with him being picked lmao?? Thats great and all hes an astronaut, but being the biggest Jew means more today.

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

What does his wife being shot have to do with him being picked lmao?? Thats great and all hes an astronaut, but being the biggest Jew means more today.

0

RadLilDude

11 months ago

Honestly between Kelly and Beshear. Kelly is a FUCKING ASTRONAUT whose wife survived an assassination attempt and Beshear has major sway in working class red states. That southern accent will pull numbers for sure.

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

To be fair, everyone gets the trade by now. As each day passes, its more and more likely they are tweaking the formula for a more favorable outcome. Nate’s forecast had an even wider margin than Biden did for reference.

0

spacebike

11 months ago

I already bought my shares and am baffled the market hasn't made the same decision as me! Posting to see what people say to better understand why they disagree

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

all politicians are phonies. Who hides it the best.

2

HoroscopeMe

11 months ago

we all know he did. and if there is one thing that americans really hate it is phonies.

Will Biden finish his term?

ncfom

11 months ago

The word of the biden camp doesnt really mean much

1

favorite

11 months ago

Interesting answer from PRESS SECRETARY KARINE JEAN-PIERRE below

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

In theory, with Biden being a slight dog before dropping out, and her being that far off Biden in the fundamentals (although better in polls), she should come in under Biden and thus a No. You cant count out an alteration to the formula either.

1

spacebike

11 months ago

Morris has said that Harris has 31% odds in the fundamentals model, which is ~85% of the model at this point in the cycle. Also, she has a 2-3pp electoral college bias against her (unfortunately).

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

Right but those are just poll #’s

2

SzonyiD

11 months ago

Latest tweet from Morris (538): https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1818337834698158171?s=46&t=refnIw0so-EQe6McNmszNw

Kamala campaign accepts crypto donations before September?

ncfom

11 months ago

Pander incoming

0

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

ncfom

11 months ago

Yeah based on the current criteria it would be Trump by an even wider margin than vs Biden. As you said, wouldnt be shocked if this urges them to tweak weights.

1

Shayku

11 months ago

Just to freak the Trump holders out: Fivethirtyeight has been heavily criticized for their electoral model post-Silver. It is very possible that they use this chance to tweak it, notably to reduce the weight or nature of fundamentals. But even then, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they put Harris ahead.

Will Florida legalize weed?

ncfom

11 months ago

57% in 2020. Add in 4 years worth of GenZ as well as new young residents from outside FL and a yes is likely. This market needs more liq

1

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

pro tip - they need 60% to "pass" the referendum

Democratic VP nominee?

ncfom

11 months ago

You have it backwards. At least per Nate, PA is way more probable of a tipping point than AZ.

1

OneMoneyPlz

11 months ago

Kelly just makes the most sense. He wins arizona for them meanwhile pensil vania land whatever has already been won

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

ncfom

0 years ago

Yea the main concern here is donor funds and how to keep them. Expedite this resignation, hold onto funds, avoid open convention. All the writing is on the wall.

1

TonysGuessin

0 years ago

Easy hop on Yes here. T-2 hours before news breaks

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

ncfom

0 years ago

General resignation is the main play. But this happens fast. 0 reason he should remain in office when he admitted what half the world already know, that hes unfit to serve. Blame it on bad polls if you want, but he polled like shit largely because his senility got exposed on live TV. He was just as bad a president and senile before that, just the casuals didnt have it shining in their faces. This show is over. 25th for Kamala to give her some legitimacy going forward and playing the minority card, shell need it.

2

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

ncfom

0 years ago

Expecting resignation when he plans to “address nation on his withdrawal”. Writings all on the wall, youve pointed it all out. His little letter saying hes focused on finishing his term means 0.00 at this point.

0

Laura

0 years ago

Still no official White House announcement from Joe regarding his dropping out. I suspect he's preparing his resignation (obviously)

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

ncfom

0 years ago

Hes polling terribly because his senility is mainstream now. Theres was no more hiding it after that debate. He was senile before the debate and wasnt polling as bad. Making it known to the casual voter was the dagger.

0

Donkov

0 years ago

His campaign cited polling data as the reason. Its obvious because he is senile but dropping from the run is enough humiliation for both him and his party. Dems know they lose the presidency this cycle. This is about the House and Senate.

Will Biden finish his term?

ncfom

0 years ago

Those citing his tweet that hes “focused on the presidency” as confirmation for Yes are just blind. As if he didnt say himself last week theres a “1000%” chance hes running. Lol he is gone.

3

Will Biden finish his term?

ncfom

0 years ago

Yeah, long way til Jan 2025.

1

pookiebooboo

0 years ago

He's gonna decline more physically, the GOP etc. is gonna start claiming he is unfit to stay president. Also giving Kamala a chance to show herself as presidential is the best possible campaign

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

ncfom

0 years ago

Imagine still believing his word haha

0

Donkov

0 years ago

He literally says that he drops from the race so he can focus on presidency (yea right, its just an excuse). He aint resigning