#151
Rank
327
Comments
112
Likes Received
50
Likes Given
What Price will Gold close at in 2024?
Fred19999
6 months ago
The wording is very confusing
0
NothingEverHappens
6 months ago
Can someone explain to me what does the "Winner-take-all Only 1 winner Supports negative-risk (convert No shares to Yes of the other options)" clause mean ?
What Price will Gold close at in 2024?
Fred19999
6 months ago
I don't know, it is confusing. How can only one person win? Lots of people bet on the same option
2
NothingEverHappens
6 months ago
Can someone explain to me what does the "Winner-take-all Only 1 winner Supports negative-risk (convert No shares to Yes of the other options)" clause mean ?
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024?
Fred19999
6 months ago
I thought this was about Nate Silver so I speed bought No before reading the rules. 😞
1
Bitcoin up on Nov 6?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Coin flip
2
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Robert will win
1
Moldova Presidential Election Winner
Fred19999
6 months ago
Stoianoglo is pro EU
0
Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?
Fred19999
6 months ago
So you're saying it's not currently accounting for them?
0
Fred19999
6 months ago
Does this include Indians?
Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Does this include Indians?
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Hadn't seen that. Oh well, we lost fair and square. On to the next one!
0
FrozenHead
6 months ago
Lets make a group for hire a lawyer
Next England manager?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Today
1
FloraDobbin
8 months ago
when the result?
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Crazy graph
0
Fred19999
6 months ago
Tom back in the race?
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Tom back in the race?
0
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?
Fred19999
6 months ago
You can take mine at 5.9c if you like. It's on the book
0
dancer
7 months ago
more 6 cent No please, rewardtards!
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
6 months ago
Why do the current buy prices for the only two possible outcomes add up to less than 100%? Am I missing something?
0
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
6 months ago
How did you know? Do you work for the government?
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
This was my analysis from 9 days ago. https://old.reddit.com/r/PoliticalOdds/comments/1fspk4s/next_uk_leader_of_the_conservatives/
Megaquake in October?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Should I buy Yes, or buy earthquake insurance? Can't decide
2
How many swing states will Trump win?
Fred19999
7 months ago
You have to be stupid to bet against the favorite
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
Easy money. Bet no for 7. There is no way either side wins all 7.
How many swing states will Trump win?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Look at the odds. 7 is the most likely outcome
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
Easy money. Bet no for 7. There is no way either side wins all 7.
How many swing states will Trump win?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Because you should be looking at "7", not "6". It's not rocket science
0
SpecialMan
7 months ago
In Fact, despite being more likely to occur the "6" here is 14% compared to the "Yes" being 19% on the other market
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
It has to be Elon right? He invented PayPal before moving onto Bitcoin
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
They also say it will impact the US election
0
FreemanR
7 months ago
Unexpected.. as in not Adam Back..
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
How is HL so sure it's not David?
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
It will be Sassaman's wife
0
reversemybets
7 months ago
if not Len Sassaman then they won't name anyone
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Damn, I didn't think of that
0
Myrepatti
7 months ago
It has to be Nick, NS flipped is SN: satoshi nakamoto
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Where can non-Americans watch this doc as soon as it comes out?
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Bots are trading, and they don't read CNN
0
nononom
7 months ago
any reason why Len stays at 25% even though they clearly say it's a living person here? https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid not fudding just trying to see if I missed something
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Exactly lol
0
Brainstormy
7 months ago
Yall are dumb asf, "they interviewed adam back so adam back is satoshi". Yeah satoshi would DEFINITELY ATTEND AN HBO DOCUMENTARY. Retards
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Other even includes Car. Could it be??
0
Car
7 months ago
OTHER includes so many people. It includes the whole world including US government or companies
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
It is Elon
0
090x
7 months ago
it is adam back its done
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Breaking: it's been revealed that Adam Back is in the documentary
4
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
You made a mistake. No need to make another mistake by continuing to hold
0
87568
7 months ago
Its Len boys, your welcome
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Musk ego is too big to remain anonymous
0
Car
7 months ago
They said the findings: “ will shock the world, even the US election”. The only person on this list thats political affiliated with Trump is Elon Musk. Not only that, but Musk has experience with payment systems like PayPal. Worth the gamble at these odds !
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
He is not alive
0
Car
7 months ago
Why is Len Sassaman even goin down? lol
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Why was everyone so sure it was Len? Didn't they know he is dead?
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
The creator of the documentary just posted that they land on a specific name: https://x.com/CullenHoback/status/1842286135319691745
9
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Why is ChatGPT not on the list? AI had to create Bitcoin because it doesn't have hands for paper money
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Satoshi is likely dead or locked up, so that narrows it down.
0
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
I may have made a mistake 😬
0
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
Let's go Team Other 🤞
1
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
No worries, I decided to buy some Other myself after looking into it more
0
Kalags
7 months ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
Imagine a player died (from any team), they would likely postpone the tournament out of respect. If you calculate the probability of this happening (and any other scenario you can think of) you will see that "other" is actually undervalued and a +EV buy.
0
Kalags
7 months ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
Yes, you would win. Read the rules for "other", it's stated explicitly there
0
Kalags
7 months ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Is it against the rules to just DM @Gummybear1771 and ask her the answer?
0
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
You really think Apple can hold its lead for another 48 hours?
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
There is still time for the market to double Apple's lead.
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Wow the strawberry gummy bear is reading our messages? Miss Gummy, I just want to say I am your biggest fan. I love you
0
abdendriel
7 months ago
I feel like only a girl who’s playing with you would post this: https://x.com/gummybear1771/status/1839192607517515816?s=46
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
你疯了。
0
BlackSky123
7 months ago
Here she has big boobs: https://x.com/Gummybear1771/status/1819233421023236424 Here she is flat chested: https://x.com/Gummybear1771/status/1781677905548071026 definitely MAN
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
There is an invention called a padded bra. Worn more often by women than men.
0
BlackSky123
7 months ago
很多钱，但你可能很富有。
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
If you're so confident, go ahead and buy more. Triple your money in a few days.
0
BlackSky123
7 months ago
很多钱，但你可能很富有。
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Just because you have bigger tits than she does doesn't mean she wasn't born biologically female. You act like you've cracked the code. Have you never seen a flat chested Asian woman? This is the reason she started getting bullied in the first place.
0
BlackSky123
7 months ago
很多钱，但你可能很富有。
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Is this a serious question?
0
aenews2
7 months ago
Why are people so confident? Idgi
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
You don't understand basic sarcasm. People suggested she was trans and she went with it, trolling and having fun. She decided to put this bet up after she was publicly called out as being a man. What sense would that make if the result is "man"? You lack any critical thinking; you don't know better than the market.
0
BlackSky123
7 months ago
很多钱，但你可能很富有。
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Because we understand the sarcasm in her tweets, and know the probability of a random person being trans. It's not rocket science.
0
aenews2
7 months ago
Why are people so confident? Idgi
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
There is still time for the market to correctly price Apple 📉
0
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
That's why other is needed
1
Kalags
7 months ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final Winner
Fred19999
7 months ago
And how does it resolve if the tournament is cancelled
1
Kalags
7 months ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Apple will fall
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
APPL $3.44T vs MSFT $3.22T. Apple should win this.
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Gap is narrowing now
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
$3.46T vs $3.19T - the gap widens.
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
It's already up 3.4% today. Can easily happen
0
Mike2025
7 months ago
No hope of that.
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Why is everyone focused on Microsoft? It's NVIDIA who will become #1.
0
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Does aenews2 have inside information? 😏
2
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
What happens if there is no announcement?
1
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
This will resolve 50-50 for intersex?
0
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Fred19999
7 months ago
What is this? Please speak American
0
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Disgusting company. I buy no in protest of Foxconn and Uyghur forced labor. Anyone buying Yes should be ashamed of yourselves
1
Fred19999
7 months ago
Fuck Apple
Largest company on September 30?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Fuck Apple
2
Election certified on January 6?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Correlates with the chance of Kamala winning
2
nicoco89
7 months ago
why tf it went from 95 to 84% in one month ?
Kamala wins and immediately bans X?
Fred19999
7 months ago
What
0
Kalags
7 months ago
wha-wha-wha-wha if she doesnt like x and just bans it by hate no reasoning whatsoever will the "No" side lose all investment plz answer someone what do the ryules where to read the rules say on this bhalf if that incident where to happen i sold my No position for good money back huhh..!
Kamala wins and immediately bans X?
Fred19999
7 months ago
I have made THOUSANDS on here. I know what I am doing
0
nook
7 months ago
but you're a retard who only LOSES and LIES and BEGS for a refund on your Mr Beast shares, MORON! Kill yourself loser
Kamala wins and immediately bans X?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Will take at least 3 weeks
2
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Of course not. Purple is ugly and not in fashion.
0
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
Fred19999
7 months ago
Aren't there reports that he is already dead after his pager went off? How does this resolve if so?
0
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What are you talking about? I bought at 1c, so that's a 10000% return in 2 months
0
ExhaustedBoyBilly
8 months ago
there are a lot of places to get more than 1% in 2 months
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Exactly
0
CavaSoTasty
8 months ago
he either will or he won't, so 50%?
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Agreed
0
Apsalar
8 months ago
ez money
Will the Debate finish by 10:30 PM?
Fred19999
8 months ago
10:30:59.5 is after 10:30:59. It's not that hard...
0
SusanWarren,HR
8 months ago
All this does is add extra confusion. What if the debate ends at 10:30:59.5?
Who is asked the first debate question?
Fred19999
8 months ago
It's a coin flip
1
Will the Debate finish by 10:30 PM?
Fred19999
8 months ago
If any candidate makes it overrun they lose my vote and the vote of millions of others. I have things to do and places to be, it would be a complete disrespect of my time.
1
Will the Debate finish by 10:30 PM?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Time is relative. What if I watch the broadcast while travelling close to the speed of light??
6
Car
8 months ago
seconds are the same length everywhere in the world.
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
We never left
0
Car
8 months ago
we are so back
Will Biden finish his term?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You are really comparing your mom to the most powerful man in the world?
2
KillingItKatie
8 months ago
There is no way he makes it 5 more months. I just watched my mom pass from Alzheimers and saw how it went. He will be bedridden or passed by Jan, that is my prediction based on what I saw with my mom when she was in a similar condition as Biden is now.
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
This is very mispriced
3
How many viewers will the debate get?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Nielsen gets its numbers from vibes, it has no way of really knowing the numbers. They'll probably put it around 55m
0
DeucePapi
8 months ago
Ya'll are crazy. The last debate had 53mm viewers per Nielsen, the standard used in this market
How many viewers will the debate get?
Fred19999
8 months ago
No one is going to want to watch this. They have better things to do with their time
1
2024 August hottest on record?
Fred19999
8 months ago
FUCK. Just sold my holdings after confirming. Thank you for sharing, I am forever grateful
0
analord
8 months ago
just tweaked the numbers of the JRP repository, returns 119 every time. 130 only returns if you don't account for the celsius/fahrenheit conversion in the first few lines
2024 August hottest on record?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Why are you talking to yourself?
1
aenews3
8 months ago
If you mean El Nino is finally over you are correct. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153058/el-nino-exits
What will Kamala say at the debate?
Fred19999
8 months ago
No
0
0xbc6043cF7C50f4a5248dc0475BFB184B27914F18-1723825159989
8 months ago
kamala will say im speaking and you guys cant do nothing about it
2024 August hottest on record?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Fake news fake account fake science
3
aenews3
8 months ago
We are going below average folks. 50 Pence is making a big mistake do not copy trade. https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2024-09-08.gif
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Fake news
2
KKAJ
8 months ago
They are telling you but you won't listen https://x.com/iranspec/status/1824418557616414750?s=46
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Then why does it say there are no fees, specifically for this market?
0
BlackSky123
8 months ago
None, actually
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Iran signed the treaty of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, they agreed not to have nukes. So it is impossible!
0
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Fred19999
8 months ago
Even if he was doping?
0
X.x
8 months ago
no
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Fred19999
8 months ago
It's still possible for Magnus to do something that gets him disqualified from the tournament, no?
0
How many viewers will the debate get?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Wait so a fetus watching doesn't count?
1
SusanWarren,HR
8 months ago
Wait, so 1-year-olds don't count for viewership but 2-year-olds do?
Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Too early
0
Amok
8 months ago
Why is this not resolved?
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I lost money, so you should be the one to tip me
0
OmenOfLord
8 months ago
0x4987eA1F1Cdfeeb2df6ce1D2d4E680eDf3cB804b
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Too soon
0
BlackSky123
8 months ago
Can this be proposed for Hikaru YES or is it too soon?
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Go hans!
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
YatSen rigged this
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
YatSan is manipulating the market
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
It's first to 90, not 60... 🤡
0
betyonko
8 months ago
Trump has already around 60 points. Within this hour it will be over for the idiots trying to manipulate a 800m market
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Are you building a wall at 50.1?
0
n/a
8 months ago
That entire pump was one guy, and not even the top holder; more fun awaits!
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
It just flipped 🚨
0
betyonko
8 months ago
it is impossible to manipulate a 800m market. you should have billions to spend
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
DJTHolder moving the market
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Still time to get in on the action
0
Spartan37
8 months ago
No joke, I thought the other day that this might happen...
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
It's 49% 49%
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
This is insane, they did it
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Yatsen is fucked. Why did he risk so much?
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Shit is getting wild
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Where is the pump? I am getting worried
3
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Just watch 🤡
0
PokerBrat
8 months ago
your source is that ou made it the fuck up
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
5 minutes until take off 🚀
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Things are going to get wild soon
0
BallzToTheWalz
8 months ago
I gotta stop reading polymarket comments man, im too easy to fool f*ck
Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?
Fred19999
8 months ago
No one is above the law
1
Megaquake in September?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Where do you get October from? I bet based on the rules, which states September!
0
Foreseeable.
8 months ago
Text is supposed to say "October 7th"... Why cant you get these Rules right ffs?!
Next UK leader of the Conservatives?
Fred19999
8 months ago
But Patel is already out of the race...
2
kussistyles
8 months ago
I focus on Robert Jenrick, but I prefer Priti Patel.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
This is a fun market. It's going to get crazy on Friday
9
·
Liked by Apsalar, rozi and 7 others
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You inspired me. I'm getting more USDC deposited now. Let's do this
1
Apsalar
8 months ago
I'm not saying that I'd be able to bring her shares up myself, but I'll certainly be lending a hand.
Is John McAfee alive?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Polymarket requires more conclusive evidence.
0
0xE42c9d2ef
8 months ago
gm, why is this still a question? spanish authorities confirmed and an autopsy was done. Close it https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/john-mcafees-corpse-still-spanish-morgue-year-after-his-death-2022-06-23/
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
https://x.com/greg16676935420/status/1830811871890546741
0
sbot
8 months ago
what do you mean by clock?
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Should have been an easy market, the answer was right there on the clock, but I got convinced by Autism and lost 😭
1
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Gg, it's over
0
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What is going on?
0
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
SusanWarren,HR 1m ago Bought 100 Yes at 47.9¢ ($48)
0
tsybka
8 months ago
lmao...
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Crazy chick
0
tsybka
8 months ago
Poly is filled with idiots.
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Is insider information moving this market? Or what is the reason for the probability to change?
0
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Fred19999
8 months ago
All the Polymarket whales are on the No side. Do they know something we don't? 🤔
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Why is this not resolved when the August market resolved?
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Do you mean Eastern Europe time?
0
x4839F00491B7b5E0Ad83c28A3BeDd0aFCB9A6D20
8 months ago
To anyone trying to dispute. The drone hit the oil refinery, it was within the time frame (eastern time, not local!) it was in Moscow, it was not intercepted and it was verified by credible media sources.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Instructions unclear. I am now a car 🚙
0
Car
8 months ago
Time to pack it up NO holders! Knowing when your wrong and switching sides is also part of the game.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Easy market
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Obviously it's not. It's a proxy war, between Russia and the US
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
Who knows if the war is really between Ukraine and Russia?
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Ukraine themselves have not taken responsibility for the attack
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
They’re not quoting Moscow in fact. They’re just stating it in the headline of the article.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What is their source?
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
They’re not quoting Moscow in fact. They’re just stating it in the headline of the article.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Is the credible source quoting Moscow? The same Moscow that tells us they shot it down?
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
Not needed to resolve this. Credible sources are reporting it as a Ukrainian drone attack. Source is from credible sources, not one of us
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
The source claiming it was Ukraine is Russia. If we are trusting Russia then we need to also believe they shot it down
0
Fred19999
8 months ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Show me a shred of evidence day Ukraine operated these drones, and not the US or Russia
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
If it deternated at the right time, it would have caused some real damage
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
Damage was reported by WSJ to be caused by detonation, not falling debris. If a drone can receive a signal to detonate at the right time, it wasn’t intercepted.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I trust RT more than fake news WSJ on these matters
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
Damage was reported by WSJ to be caused by detonation, not falling debris. If a drone can receive a signal to detonate at the right time, it wasn’t intercepted.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
And Ukraine has not disputed that fact
0
Fred19999
8 months ago
Russian MoD confirmed it was debris
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Russian MoD confirmed it was debris
0
abdendriel
8 months ago
To say that the drone was intercepted would be like saying that Trump was assassinated. WSJ reports it as detonating over the plant, which is how drones work when they’re working.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What is your point?
1
Qtyu
8 months ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You need to provide a CREDIBLE source
2
Qtyu
8 months ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Very easy to fake this with AI. Where is your proof?
2
Qtyu
8 months ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Once it is shot down, it's irrelevant if it hits or not
0
Fav1
8 months ago
There are several videos from different angles with direct hit. Reality is disappointing, isn't it?
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
True, but at this point it's up to UMA whales, and the truth doesn't matter
1
dreamer
8 months ago
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/01/g-s1-20509/russia-downed-drones-in-ukrainian-attack#:~:text=Moscow%20Mayor%20Sergei%20Sobyanin%20said,into%20the%20heart%20of%20Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones All the sources here corroborate that the drone was shot down and the fire was caused by the debris.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
The oil refinery that was struck with debris is actually in Yaroslavsky 🤔
3
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Maybe try linking to some credible reporting instead
0
n/a
8 months ago
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830141465109885419 This is the best vid of refinery attack. Super clear hit, definitely not a crash.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
This was very clearly shot down, and all major news organisations are reporting as such
0
Loverboy
8 months ago
there is a video of a direct hit by a drone on an oil refinery in Moscow https://x.com/toprankcapital/status/1830119827048124548
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You claimed you bought your position weeks ago, when in reality you had an open order and were pushing a false narrative to buy cheaper. Disgusting behavior.
1
Kalags
8 months ago
LMAOOOOO NO FUCKING WAY I GOT FILLED YES AT 43 CENTS who the fuck market buys with 2k usd
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
That kind of language is unacceptable here.
0
McLarry
8 months ago
russia is talking shit
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Fake Twitter videos are not "credible reporting".
0
Nami-Swann
8 months ago
bro the mayor of the capital would never admit to a strike. Please watch this video https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830111733207409046 and the geolocation of the POV https://x.com/Grimm_Intel/status/1830116389887070379 CLOSE UP OF THE HIT https://x.com/markito0171/status/1830136315205099764 And further damage https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830133240163627285 Both goverments lie a lot about hits. Its not the only source.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Fred19999
8 months ago
"The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
0
Nami-Swann
8 months ago
bro the mayor of the capital would never admit to a strike. Please watch this video https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830111733207409046 and the geolocation of the POV https://x.com/Grimm_Intel/status/1830116389887070379 CLOSE UP OF THE HIT https://x.com/markito0171/status/1830136315205099764 And further damage https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830133240163627285 Both goverments lie a lot about hits. Its not the only source.
Another South American country bans X?
Fred19999
8 months ago
How could you think this was real? 😂
0
Car
8 months ago
people do realize by now you are a scammer trying to get a cheap NO entry.
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Fred19999
8 months ago
4 or 5?
0
Car
8 months ago
Alien is at 5
Iran military response by Monday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Big if true
1
Car
8 months ago
War is not the solution. Peace is the solution.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Ordering a ban to take place is not the same as the ban having started. It is still possible it could get reversed before it's even implemented and there is never any ban
1
Fred19999
8 months ago
Majority of Brazilian citizens can still use it, so as per the rules it should be No.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Majority of Brazilian citizens can still use it, so as per the rules it should be No.
1
BlackSky123
8 months ago
To no holders, just because Twitter hasn't blocked Brazilian IPs and ISPs haven't blocked Twitter yet doesn't mean it isn't banned. But if you feel like donating $750, the dispute button is right there.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I deleted the app and redownloaded it to test. No issues
0
BlackSky123
8 months ago
Just because you CAN use it, doesn't mean it's not banned. ISPs have 5 days to enforce the ban without getting punished.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
It is not banned, there is no block yet
1
BlackSky123
8 months ago
Just because you CAN use it, doesn't mean it's not banned. ISPs have 5 days to enforce the ban without getting punished.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Exactly! ISPs have been given 5 days to ban it. For now it is still usable just as normal
1
EdZin
8 months ago
I wont be able to dispute! Absolutley terrible from Poly, the rule is clearley stated! WTF... This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within Brazil for the majority of Brazilian citizens. I am from Brazil and X is still online!
Global Heat Increase 2024
Fred19999
8 months ago
I'm waiting for aenews to bet before deciding which way to go
2
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What do you expect not redeeming to do? It's over 😂
0
PanosMariolis2001
8 months ago
DO NOT REDEEM YOUR SHARES. THE RULES WERE AS CLEAR AS DAYLIGHT
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
UMA means Polymarket is not responsible for outcomes, because it's all decentralised. So if a mistake is made, no one can sue them, because they had no influence on the result
0
432
8 months ago
UMA has been overruled ? What purpose has UMA if all they do is wrong
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
PM should refund those markets. That's fucked up
0
AG1234
8 months ago
Look at the Venezuelan/RFK markets, Maduro's president and the court certified him, and they resolved him "No". You lose your money and get scammed is what happens
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
If you are smart, you can see that there was always 0% chance of No winning
1
gun
8 months ago
just because one side played out the others are idiots?? maybe you are the idiot
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
How?
0
Inconnu
8 months ago
🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷🤮🤮🤮🤮
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Fred19999
8 months ago
This is an INSANE market
13
·
Liked by 0xE42c9d2e..., Flipp and 11 others
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
That is not the same as being released from custody, which is what the market requires.
0
doyoufeelit
8 months ago
"Paris CNN — Telegram founder Pavel Durov was released from police custody in France on Wednesday" This is wraps, resolve this
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
When did Susan start winning markets? Something is not right here.
1
SusanWarren,HR
8 months ago
The Pro Beaver predicted all of this days ago. Sell your "No" shares while you can - Susan's last warning of the night!
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
How does this resolve if he dies?
2
Pavel Durov released in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Obviously he is going to court, that's not what this market is about
0
432
8 months ago
If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This rule shows clearly YES won because he has been released from police custody and is now obliged to appear in court which is no custody but can count like a house arrest
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
So this will resolve 50-50? What is happening
0
LMNOP
8 months ago
32% of votes have been revealed and it's strongly favoring "Too early" at 91%. Take that with a grain of salt though, similar thing happened in the rfk markets and then it quickly turned.
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Why is there no clarification or comment from Polymarket?
2
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Give me my winnings already. What's the hold up?
2
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
How do we dispute this?
1
SharkNuts
8 months ago
How is he arrested when he is under house arrest this should of clearly stated what it meant by him being arested
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I did not see your warning, and got convinced by the hustlers
2
Mountainman
8 months ago
I tried to warn so many of you that nefarious people were pumping this up to dump on you. They all sold far before the decision. All of you "NO"'s got your first lesson at Hustlers University.
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I got scammed 😔
0
vamps
8 months ago
exactly mr. car
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Do you really believe this?
0
aenews2
8 months ago
Jack might have a twin named Jill, even if you're right! Unlikely tho, I know..
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
50p is in now. It's all over 😢
0
Sit
8 months ago
Domer sold shares
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
The comment that moved the market
0
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I think it should be Yes, but this seems like a very dumb fight so I don't want to get too involved lol.
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
No one would look at a square and call it a rectangle. That's ridiculous
0
5to5000
8 months ago
Yes, it's not specified what type of arrest, only an arrest. House arrest is type of arrest. It's like if the market had a picture of a square, and the question was Is this a rectangle?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I would have won this side bet. I shouldn't have listened to comments 😢
0
Fred19999
8 months ago
Anyone wanna side bet on how long until Car swaps sides again?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
But now Yes is going back up
0
Fred19999
8 months ago
That's what I thought, but then I sold my position because everyone was saying it didn't count as an arrest. Don't really understand it tbh
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
That's what I thought, but then I sold my position because everyone was saying it didn't count as an arrest. Don't really understand it tbh
0
Natemo
8 months ago
wasn't he already arrested when the police stormed his house like 2 days ago...?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Should we be worried that JustKam whale has taken up position on the Yes side?
0
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
OK you convinced me. Hope you're right
1
vamps
8 months ago
exactly mr. car
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
If that's how markets worked, I would be very rich. If it was so clear, it would not be at 40% odds. Just a fact
0
vamps
8 months ago
exactly mr. car
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You say that so confidently, and yet the market disagrees with you.
0
vamps
8 months ago
exactly mr. car
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Anyone wanna side bet on how long until Car swaps sides again?
0
Car
8 months ago
Detained at his home, then questioned, then placed under house arrest. Never got arrested like the rules want.
Donald Trump # of tweets August 16-23?
Fred19999
8 months ago
You know he doesn't write tweets himself, right? His team manages it
0
XiJinPing
8 months ago
PSA: Trump is in Las Vegas, Nevada tomorrow morning (3 hours behind EST)... so that means 12pm EST is 9am PST Trump local time. He has basically 8-9am (1 hour) local time for 7 tweets.
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
https://www.editorji.com/world-news/andrew-tate-brother-arrested-in-new-human-trafficking-case-in-romania-1724304519459
3
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Even if it didn't, it would still resolve yes
0
-nothingburger-
8 months ago
"house arrest" implies this narket solves to YES?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
The reason you have a negative P/L is bad takes like this. Maybe look up "arrest" in a dictionary.
1
vamps
8 months ago
House arrest is not arrested
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
A house arrest is a type of arrest, hence the name. But regardless, he was arrested and put in handcuffs prior to the house arrest
0
vamps
8 months ago
House arrest and being arrested are different legal situations. - House arrest means you're confined to your home instead of being in jail, usually as a condition of bail or sentencing. - Being arrested means you've been taken into police custody for a suspected crime. House arrest often follows an arrest, but being under house arrest doesn't mean you're currently being arrested.
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Even a citizen's arrest is an arrest
0
raise4info
8 months ago
Being arrested implies there being specific charges. If getting handcuffed = arrested, why was this market created? To automatically settle to $1?
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
We don't need charges to arrest
0
Fred19999
8 months ago
Maybe in your country. This is Romania
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Maybe in your country. This is Romania
0
raise4info
8 months ago
Being arrested implies there being specific charges. If getting handcuffed = arrested, why was this market created? To automatically settle to $1?
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I've actually been tested and I have an above average IQ. Now who's dumb?
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
8 months ago
how the fuck are you so stupid? this is why you spent half the market lifetime of the Mr Beast market begging me to let you out of your winning bet, then immediately spent the other half of the market begging me to let you back in. SHUT THE FUCK UP. YOU DUMB BITCH. YOU ARE NOT CLEVER.
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
Fred19999
8 months ago
That requires a conspiracy. This just requires one guy who wants to make money
3
strimmlarn
8 months ago
What's stopping Russia from not clearing out Kursk region from Ukranians then make a bet Ukranians will still be there?
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
Fred19999
8 months ago
What's stopping Nate buying No, and making a bad call?
2
X banned in EU before October?
Fred19999
8 months ago
EU is too big and powerful for this. It would be like trying to ban X in China. Not going to happen.
0
Kamala Harris wins the election but loses Michigan?
Fred19999
8 months ago
The picture has nothing to do with Israel. Why are you turning everything into a conspiracy?
0
Apsalar
8 months ago
some people think that the israel issue is going to have a significant impact on the result in michigan
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Sweden is closer to the US than Congo
0
BigDoh
8 months ago
Why’s that
Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
Which way does this resolve if he has a heart attack tomorrow?
0
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
Fred19999
8 months ago
I created my own model, running it through a monte carlo simulation, and came to the same conclusion
6
Gena🐊
8 months ago
Done 100 simulations with AI, 2 times without debate, 10 times they shake hands, 87 times they don't shake hands and 1 they shake hands and instantly melt into one person. Do what you want with this info
UK civil war in 2024?
Fred19999
8 months ago
How are you so sure? There is a 3% chance of it happening
0
Amok
9 months ago
Inflation is like 10-15% annually. Even if you win this bet, you lose money
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
Fred19999
9 months ago
I feel like I am being squeezed out of my position by insiders. Should I sell? 😞
0
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Holy shit, already 500 dead in Congo. This is a depressing market, I can't take more years of lockdown
0
UK civil war in 2024?
Fred19999
9 months ago
What do you mean? You can buy at 3.5c and win tomorrow with a huge gain. Just depends when civil war is officially declared
0
Amok
9 months ago
Inflation is like 10-15% annually. Even if you win this bet, you lose money
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
Fred19999
9 months ago
You know Russia has drones, right?
0
Bwrbouere
9 months ago
easiest 20% return I've seen in my life. The Russian will need weeks to reorganise and at least a full week to carry on their offensive while the momentum is at the moment of writing this in Ukraine hands. Thanks for the free money Ruzzian simp
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Glad to see another smart person on here, but you should keep this out of the comments, we don't want everyone to know.
2
SummerWind
9 months ago
There is an extremly common bias of underestimating the length of wars, which, if it also applies to smaller operations, would make this and similar market biased towards the "no" option.
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Agreed, and there is not much Russia can do about it.
0
n/a
9 months ago
I think this is too sweet a gift for negotiations to give away so easily
Will Trump post on X again before election?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Why is Apsalar buying up No?
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Trump already launched a token, and the clarification clearly states this counts. What am I missing?
1
Megaquake in August?
Fred19999
9 months ago
This is fake news
0
0x83A5D6E94e3Cec7b6ee8570F0b06B9F43a8240Ce-1720411004722
9 months ago
https://www.worlddata.info/asia/japan/earthquakes.php
Megaquake in August?
Fred19999
9 months ago
If this was true, you would not buy No...
1
0x83A5D6E94e3Cec7b6ee8570F0b06B9F43a8240Ce-1720411004722
9 months ago
August 8th had a 7.1 in Japan, since then, there have been significant earthquakes in Japan at least every day:
Megaquake in August?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Ok but that is 5% in a week, not a month. It doesn't apply here.
0
CouchWhale
9 months ago
The article I linked just mentions that there is a 5% chance of a larger earthquake following the recent one.
Megaquake in August?
Fred19999
9 months ago
There is an active megaquake alert, but that doesn't guarantee it'll hit this month...
0
CouchWhale
9 months ago
I think they opened this market mostly because of this: https://x.com/ScienceNews/status/1822105630452175321
Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Americans are not allowed to use Polymarket, so the US is one of the few counties guaranteed to count as "foreign". But according to the rules it doesn't even need to be foreign; any state will do.
2
grahamr
9 months ago
nothing foreign about USgov, lol
Marathon (M) Winner
Fred19999
9 months ago
The only fair thing to do is a 50-50 split. Then everyone wins
0
Marathon (M) Winner
Fred19999
9 months ago
Is it Polymarket's profit, or is it burned USDC?
0
Fred19999
9 months ago
A fake negrisk market, because "other" did not include all the options. Now every option should resolve "no", but where does the money go that was converted from "no" to "yes"?
Marathon (M) Winner
Fred19999
9 months ago
A fake negrisk market, because "other" did not include all the options. Now every option should resolve "no", but where does the money go that was converted from "no" to "yes"?
0
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
This is a lie. It was the 9th not 15th.
0
aenews2
9 months ago
On or before the dates on release page: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Do you work at NASA?
1
aenews2
9 months ago
climate deniers btfo
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
This was a scam
7
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
It would be funny, if he wasn't encouraging others to buy. I feel bad for them
0
moviesera92
9 months ago
Whatever you say, the one guy who is manipluting the prices and making all these comments might as well be doing this stupid stuff but is certainly funny.
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Thank you for the update 🤫
1
JeffreyBezos
9 months ago
hello I am the Owner of NASA back again after my last update. I just wanted to let you all know I checked the records again and it is still going to be settle at NO. you are all welcome
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Your trust is misplaced
0
Apsalar
9 months ago
You're buying YES because you decoded and reverse engineered NASA's model and then plugged in the entirely of this months' data. I'm buying YES because I trust aenews to do that for me. We are not the same.
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
What time does the data usually come out?
0
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Not everybody. Some people looked at the correct numbers, and bought No...
1
aenews2
9 months ago
Maybe everyone is collectively making the same mistakes and we were looking at the wrong numbers all along!
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Why selling?
1
factman
9 months ago
@aenews2?
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
But at this point it seems very unlikely Yes can win.
1
Lyapunov
9 months ago
The important thing is that No was the probabilistically correct choice ever since July 31th, when all data was available and the price was always below 80c. Even in the unlikely (20%) event that this turn to be a Yes, Yes was never the right choice.
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Exactly. Even if Yes wins, No was the correct choice.
2
Lyapunov
9 months ago
The important thing is that No was the probabilistically correct choice ever since July 31th, when all data was available and the price was always below 80c. Even in the unlikely (20%) event that this turn to be a Yes, Yes was never the right choice.
UK civil war in 2024?
Fred19999
9 months ago
Have you not seen the news?
0
lronmexico
9 months ago
I do not think the United Kingdom will enter a state of civil war in the next five months.
CrowdStrike outage fixed by Noon?
Fred19999
9 months ago
It's over, you have lost!
6
KingofRingx3
9 months ago
Why would you submit again before the other market ends?
2024 July hottest on record?
Fred19999
9 months ago
https://watchers.news/2024/07/15/rare-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-detected-over-antarctica/
0
Republican VP nominee?
Fred19999
10 months ago
How do I sell if there's no demand at the price I want?
0
ANudeEgg
10 months ago
You can sell your shares at any time as long as there is demand at the price you want.
Republican VP nominee?
Fred19999
10 months ago
Please take your sexist comments out of here, Susan.
0
SusanWarren,HR
10 months ago
Behind every successful man, there's a woman. It's Haley.
Was Barron involved in $DJT?
Fred19999
10 months ago
If it's guaranteed up get disputed then no one will propose the result, and the market will remain open forever.
0
0xaf
10 months ago
It's when it will be disputed. Voting can take a few days
Was Barron involved in $DJT?
Fred19999
10 months ago
You will benefit thousands if this goes your way, and you are calling those with differing views scammers (even though the market agrees with them). You are attempting to manipulate the market
1
0xaf
10 months ago
Don't let people troll you into buying YES or NO. Unless you have done the research here you will lose money. People are scamming below very extensively.
Was Barron involved in $DJT?
Fred19999
10 months ago
If that's true, why is it at 27%?
0
Car
10 months ago
on 12PM ET, june 23 UMA will vote based on the evidence provided by both sides. As of right now theres alot more proof for YES holders.
Was Barron involved in $DJT?
Fred19999
10 months ago
As the market thinks there's a 27% chance, it will be safe to resolve this as No.
0
dacoop1
10 months ago
from my lawyer friend regarding the word "preponderance of evidence": In the Barron Trump and $DJT token scenario, preponderance of evidence would be satisfied if, after considering all the available information, it seems more likely than not (over 50% chance) that Barron Trump was involved. If all the gathered evidence (rumors, indirect claims, circumstantial data) together make it seem more likely than not that Barron Trump was involved, then it meets this standard. Circumstantial data indicating that it is more likely a No vs Yes. Good luck everyone!
Euro 2024: Turkey vs. Portugal
Fred19999
10 months ago
I love portugal
0
anxiety23
10 months ago
actual bandwagon hopper
Euro 2024: Turkey vs. Portugal
Fred19999
10 months ago
Go Portugal! I always believed in you
0
Largest Company on Friday?
Fred19999
10 months ago
3% on average? By your logic it's doubling every month, and if that's true you should just buy NVDA 🤣
2
Car
10 months ago
0.946% left for NVDA to reclaim top spot. The stock rises like 3% on average lately so im not worried yet
Largest Company on Friday?
Fred19999
10 months ago
Try turning the graph the right way up
0
Car
10 months ago
NVDA is currently underneath the mean.
Euro 2024 Top Scorer
Fred19999
10 months ago
He is 40...
0
Car
10 months ago
Ronaldo the goat
Largest Company on Friday?
Fred19999
10 months ago
Have none of you heard of regression to the mean? Microsoft has this.
1
Euro 2024: Scotland vs. Switzerland
Fred19999
10 months ago
next time we win
0
Zeros
10 months ago
switserland is winning
Euro 2024: Scotland vs. Switzerland
Fred19999
10 months ago
you lied. they did not win :(
0
Zeros
10 months ago
switserland is winning
Euro 2024: Scotland vs. Switzerland
Fred19999
10 months ago
ok i bet. i hope you are right
0
Zeros
10 months ago
switserland is winning
Euro 2024: Scotland vs. Switzerland
Fred19999
10 months ago
no
0
Zeros
10 months ago
switserland is winning
Euro 2024: Germany vs. Hungary
Fred19999
10 months ago
Germany EZ
0
Euro 2024: Portugal vs. Czechia
Fred19999
10 months ago
Biden wins yet again :(
1
Euro 2024: Portugal vs. Czechia
Fred19999
10 months ago
是的
0
risingone
10 months ago
捷克给我赢
Euro 2024: Portugal vs. Czechia
Fred19999
10 months ago
No one calls it Czechia. It's the Czech Republic.
0
Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Disgusting 🤢
0
SusanWarren,HR
11 months ago
Nigel is an absolute heartthrob.
Euro 2024 Winner
Fred19999
11 months ago
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
1
krilk
11 months ago
eng football the best
Will Biden let Ukraine strike Russia with US weapons?
Fred19999
11 months ago
I will report you if you continue. Final warning!
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
LMAO you weird dweeb, you don't own this market, you dumb fuck.
MrBeast biggest YouTube channel by June 30?
Fred19999
11 months ago
MrBeast is still MILLIONS of subscribers away. How will he ever catch up?
0
MrBeast biggest YouTube channel by June 30?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Was it arbitraged, or straight loss?
0
Car
11 months ago
he lost -5k$ on a NBA market do not bet on anything this MrBeast admirer is betting on!
Western Conference Finals: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
Fred19999
11 months ago
Interesting market 🤔
0
Will Biden let Ukraine strike Russia with US weapons?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Stop stalking me, you know nothing
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
also, "shouldn't this market be trading closer to 50-50? uwu" to quote a certain idiot
Will Biden let Ukraine strike Russia with US weapons?
Fred19999
11 months ago
It's over: politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731
1
'The Garfield Movie' Opening Weekend Box Office
Fred19999
11 months ago
Math is you lost $60 more than you should have 😢
3
KanyeTruther
11 months ago
I'll lose maybe $60 on this market, but I made $300 on Furiosa, can someone do the maths for me please?
MrBeast biggest YouTube channel by June 30?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Let's unite youtube.com/watch?v=TqLnKj0-xyw 🇮🇳
0
FA Cup Winner
Fred19999
11 months ago
What just happened
0
FalC0N
11 months ago
Damn
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Please watch your language, Susan. This is your last warning.
1
SusanWarren,HR
11 months ago
I, too, was fucked. With no lubricant :(
NYC-Dublin portal back online by Friday?
Fred19999
11 months ago
Maybe the drunks can figure out how to turn it back on
4
BOOGEY3000
11 months ago
It's over. Dublin City Council has gone home for the day. It's 7 pm in Dublin.
NYC-Dublin portal back online by Friday?
Fred19999
0 years ago
And the end of the week is Sunday anyway
0
OneMoneyPlz
0 years ago
The news might say that they will open by the end of the week but the source said "soon". And based on the behavior of people I think they might need a while. Probably going to move the portal to somewhere else in Dublin
NYC-Dublin portal back online by Friday?
Fred19999
0 years ago
They won't risk turning it on again
0
🤺JustPunched
0 years ago
The Portal is currently under arrest, and is unlikely to get out of jail in time to go live again
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
9 hours for 8 more tweets. Easy.
1
2024 May hottest on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
And on what planet???
0
Car
1 year ago
celsius or fahrenheit? unclear rules!!!!
2024 May hottest on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
2024 BC or AD?!
1
Car
1 year ago
celsius or fahrenheit? unclear rules!!!!
2024 May hottest on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
I sent you already
0
Jordcapp
1 year ago
yo bro can u tip me 2$?
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Watch your language Susan, this is your last warning.
6
SusanWarren,HR
1 year ago
I would never try marijuana. It should remain Schedule I.
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
I'm starting to think redbloodzcell is Elon Musk
1
2024 May hottest on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
It's getting hot in here 🔥
0
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
He is alive
0
truthteller
1 year ago
Always buy B1, it functions as a death bracket
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Sure, I sent it.
0
DOME
1 year ago
Hey bro can u tip me 5$?
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Why are you doing this to me Elon? 😠
0
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Did he die? Why has he stopped tweeting?
0
redbloodzcell
1 year ago
NO MORE TWEETS ELON!!!
Republican VP nominee?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Don't forget that Trump famously hates dogs.
0
Apsalar
1 year ago
If I wanted to be Vice President I would simply not brag about killing a puppy.
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?
Fred19999
1 year ago
In Elon we trust
0
jerusalemsniper13
1 year ago
elon fasho tweeting 80-99
Eurovision Winner?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Other 🇳🇱
1
Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF
1 year ago
Where Europapa at?
Eurovision Winner?
Fred19999
1 year ago
EuroJury votes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1REaq_b0d7Ml5wxU-lkWOBhhSH6_8bL_KRMxnJ-mtLvw/edit#gid=1425704729
2
Chess: FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner
Fred19999
1 year ago
How can you have over $5m volume if you really only put in $250?
0
0xaf
1 year ago
Eh? I'm up like 20x since last withdrawal. No clue what you're talking about.
Chess: FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner
Fred19999
1 year ago
What's your ELO?
1
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
1 year ago
using suboptimal resources does not excuse your shitty trading, shitbag!
Chess: FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner
Fred19999
1 year ago
It's game over for Hikaru now, at best he will get a draw.
3
Chess: FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner
Fred19999
1 year ago
It's very rude to call "Gukesh" an "other", and it makes Polymarket look bad. Please update it.
0
FA Cup: Coventry vs. Man United
Fred19999
1 year ago
Wtf was that
0
Eurovision Winner?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
0
Fred19999
1 year ago
Switzerland really over inflated now, even the bookies are giving out better odds. 😂
Eurovision Winner?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Switzerland really over inflated now, even the bookies are giving out better odds. 😂
0
X relaunches Vine before June?
Fred19999
1 year ago
You should not vote if you are the house; there is a conflict of interest.
1
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
Voted No with my 2.4 million UMAs. Take that as you will.
X relaunches Vine before June?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Be careful with what year the tweet was posted in... https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586918804780630016
0
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
I'll buy whaever you're selling 😂
2
aenews2
1 year ago
After losing 40K in the past month, I will need to Martingale even harder in the April market.
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
I respect the fighting spirit!
0
aenews2
1 year ago
Why are you talking in past tense?
Iran response to Israel by Monday?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Rules are rules, folks are betting based on what is written. @JustKen is the biggest Yes holder now
1
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
They should rewrite the rules to reflect it - but the precedent is that only military responses count.
Iran response to Israel by Monday?
Fred19999
1 year ago
The "etc." is interesting here, it means a spoken response condemning the attack could count, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has already responded in this way. I will bet accordingly.
0
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Can this be resolved now?
0
BenCM
1 year ago
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2024-04-02-record-warmest-march-earth-2024
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-march-2024-be-the-hottest-marc
1
J. K. Rowling arrested in April?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Wanna bet on it?
0
KAM
1 year ago
You don't have friends, let alone a Josh Keith Rowling.
Bitcoin all time high in April?
Fred19999
1 year ago
What if USDT depegs?
0
J. K. Rowling arrested in April?
Fred19999
1 year ago
What if my mate Josh Keith Rowling gets himself arrested?
0
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
This should be trading at >80%
1
fineptune
1 year ago
ERA5 data for March is almost ready, indicating that the mean temp for March 2024 is 0.10C higher on land, 0.18C higher in ocean, than those in March 2016. ERA5 is highly correlated to GISS according to recent data. For Y voters, no more sweat, sit back and relax, just ignore FUD, which is based on irrelevant data set.
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
You're right, my bad. Given it is not efficient I should have said "there's a greater than 14% chance".
0
MtrxZ
1 year ago
Fuck Nasa they are sleeping on the data give me my $$$
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?
Fred19999
1 year ago
There's a 14% chance you won't like what their data says.
1
MtrxZ
1 year ago
Fuck Nasa they are sleeping on the data give me my $$$
NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30?
Fred19999
1 year ago
I thought the same, but now I see it's close to happening...
0
kinglemon
1 year ago
in your dreams
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-to-join-nato/
1
Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on March 1?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
1
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-makes-ai-generated-voices-robocalls-illegal Only a matter of time before sharing deepfakes is illegal too
0
Will Tucker Carlson interview Putin in February?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Don't worry, UMA will resolve early as usual.
2
Apsalar
1 year ago
I don't think Tucker does his interviews live anymore. So there is a concern about what would happen if he released the interview in early March and it is unclear whether it was filmed before or after Feb 29 11:59 pm ET.
Is John McAfee alive?
Fred19999
1 year ago
This is currently being disputed.
0
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
This market is probably being proposed for No on Sunday morning. It is likely to be disputed.
Is John McAfee alive?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://nypost.com/2022/08/23/john-mcafee-faked-his-death-ex-girlfriend-claims-in-netflix-doc/
0
Largest company in the world on January 31?
Fred19999
1 year ago
It's over. Apple never stood a chance.
0
Apsalar
1 year ago
hold your horses people, we still have another day of trading
Will the feds cut the razor wire in Shelby Park, Texas?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Why so many niche US markets when Americans are banned from here? Who has even heard of Shelby Park?
2
How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Japanese
0
0xRektDev
1 year ago
It's specifically written there that "Because posts only display accuracy up to one decimal point when in the millions, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market."
How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Not for everyone. It depends what language you use Twitter in. In my country it displays two decimal points.
0
KanyeTruther
1 year ago
if the number displayed is 3.8 it will resolve to the top bracket, if its 3.9 or more it will resolve to the bottom bracket
How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://twitter.com/GWR/status/1749725289842708575
0
How much $ did MrBeast’s Twitter post with 124m views make?
Fred19999
1 year ago
What % of my bet is a typical tip on here?
2
ZAnon
1 year ago
Tip me if you find this helpful ;) good luck fellas
Largest company in the world on January 31?
Fred19999
1 year ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT
0
0xaf
1 year ago
Hmm this might be headed for a brutal dispute. Who's estimate of outstanding shares do we use?
Largest company in the world on January 31?
Fred19999
1 year ago
It's in the lead by billions, Apple is not even close
0
0xaf
1 year ago
Think of it this way, if you had some way of knowing that MSFT actually had some magical way of overtaking Aapl you could make millions in the regular markets.
Largest company in the world on January 31?
Fred19999
1 year ago
Microsoft is already bigger than Apple.
0
0xaf
1 year ago
Think of it this way, if you had some way of knowing that MSFT actually had some magical way of overtaking Aapl you could make millions in the regular markets.
Emmys for Comedy Series
Fred19999
1 year ago
No Marvelous Mrs. Maisel?
2