#85
Rank
312
Comments
104
Likes Received
48
Likes Given
Fatboyslim
56 minutes ago
Should I buy Yes, or buy earthquake insurance? Can't decide
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
You have to be stupid to bet against the favorite
Mike2025
1 day ago
Easy money. Bet no for 7. There is no way either side wins all 7.
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
Look at the odds. 7 is the most likely outcome
Mike2025
1 day ago
Easy money. Bet no for 7. There is no way either side wins all 7.
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
Because you should be looking at "7", not "6". It's not rocket science
WaffleJohns
1 day ago
In Fact, despite being more likely to occur the "6" here is 14% compared to the "Yes" being 19% on the other market
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
It has to be Elon right? He invented PayPal before moving onto Bitcoin
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
They also say it will impact the US election
FreemanR
2 days ago
Unexpected.. as in not Adam Back..
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
How is HL so sure it's not David?
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
It will be Sassaman's wife
reversemybets
2 days ago
if not Len Sassaman then they won't name anyone
Fatboyslim
1 day ago
Damn, I didn't think of that
Myrepatti
2 days ago
It has to be Nick, NS flipped is SN: satoshi nakamoto
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Where can non-Americans watch this doc as soon as it comes out?
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Bots are trading, and they don't read CNN
n/a
3 days ago
any reason why Len stays at 25% even though they clearly say it's a living person here? https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid not fudding just trying to see if I missed something
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Exactly lol
Brainstormy
3 days ago
Yall are dumb asf, "they interviewed adam back so adam back is satoshi". Yeah satoshi would DEFINITELY ATTEND AN HBO DOCUMENTARY. Retards
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Other even includes Car. Could it be??
Car
3 days ago
OTHER includes so many people. It includes the whole world including US government or companies
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
It is Elon
090x
3 days ago
it is adam back its done
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Breaking: it's been revealed that Adam Back is in the documentary
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
You made a mistake. No need to make another mistake by continuing to hold
n/a
3 days ago
Its Len boys, your welcome
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Musk ego is too big to remain anonymous
Car
3 days ago
They said the findings: “ will shock the world, even the US election”. The only person on this list thats political affiliated with Trump is Elon Musk. Not only that, but Musk has experience with payment systems like PayPal. Worth the gamble at these odds !
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
He is not alive
Car
3 days ago
Why is Len Sassaman even goin down? lol
Fatboyslim
3 days ago
Why was everyone so sure it was Len? Didn't they know he is dead?
Fatboyslim
6 days ago
The creator of the documentary just posted that they land on a specific name: https://x.com/CullenHoback/status/1842286135319691745
Fatboyslim
6 days ago
Why is ChatGPT not on the list? AI had to create Bitcoin because it doesn't have hands for paper money
Fatboyslim
6 days ago
Satoshi is likely dead or locked up, so that narrows it down.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
I may have made a mistake 😬
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Let's go Team Other 🤞
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
No worries, I decided to buy some Other myself after looking into it more
Werty1
2 weeks ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Imagine a player died (from any team), they would likely postpone the tournament out of respect. If you calculate the probability of this happening (and any other scenario you can think of) you will see that "other" is actually undervalued and a +EV buy.
Werty1
2 weeks ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Yes, you would win. Read the rules for "other", it's stated explicitly there
Werty1
2 weeks ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Is it against the rules to just DM @Gummybear1771 and ask her the answer?
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
You really think Apple can hold its lead for another 48 hours?
Mike2025
2 weeks ago
There is still time for the market to double Apple's lead.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Wow the strawberry gummy bear is reading our messages? Miss Gummy, I just want to say I am your biggest fan. I love you
abdendriel
2 weeks ago
I feel like only a girl who’s playing with you would post this: https://x.com/gummybear1771/status/1839192607517515816?s=46
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
你疯了。
BlueSky123
2 weeks ago
Here she has big boobs: https://x.com/Gummybear1771/status/1819233421023236424 Here she is flat chested: https://x.com/Gummybear1771/status/1781677905548071026 definitely MAN
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
There is an invention called a padded bra. Worn more often by women than men.
BlueSky123
2 weeks ago
很多钱,但你可能很富有。
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
If you're so confident, go ahead and buy more. Triple your money in a few days.
BlueSky123
2 weeks ago
很多钱,但你可能很富有。
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Just because you have bigger tits than she does doesn't mean she wasn't born biologically female. You act like you've cracked the code. Have you never seen a flat chested Asian woman? This is the reason she started getting bullied in the first place.
BlueSky123
2 weeks ago
很多钱,但你可能很富有。
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Is this a serious question?
aenews2
2 weeks ago
Why are people so confident? Idgi
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
You don't understand basic sarcasm. People suggested she was trans and she went with it, trolling and having fun. She decided to put this bet up after she was publicly called out as being a man. What sense would that make if the result is "man"? You lack any critical thinking; you don't know better than the market.
BlueSky123
2 weeks ago
很多钱,但你可能很富有。
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Because we understand the sarcasm in her tweets, and know the probability of a random person being trans. It's not rocket science.
aenews2
2 weeks ago
Why are people so confident? Idgi
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
There is still time for the market to correctly price Apple 📉
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
That's why other is needed
Werty1
2 weeks ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
And how does it resolve if the tournament is cancelled
Werty1
2 weeks ago
Why is "Other" a thing? Like there are 8 teams. LOL
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Apple will fall
Mike2025
2 weeks ago
APPL $3.44T vs MSFT $3.22T. Apple should win this.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Gap is narrowing now
Mike2025
2 weeks ago
$3.46T vs $3.19T - the gap widens.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
It's already up 3.4% today. Can easily happen
Mike2025
2 weeks ago
No hope of that.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Why is everyone focused on Microsoft? It's NVIDIA who will become #1.
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Does aenews2 have inside information? 😏
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
What happens if there is no announcement?
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
This will resolve 50-50 for intersex?
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
What is this? Please speak American
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Disgusting company. I buy no in protest of Foxconn and Uyghur forced labor. Anyone buying Yes should be ashamed of yourselves
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Fuck Apple
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Fuck Apple
Fatboyslim
2 weeks ago
Correlates with the chance of Kamala winning
n/a
2 weeks ago
why tf it went from 95 to 84% in one month ?
Fatboyslim
3 weeks ago
What
Werty1
3 weeks ago
wha-wha-wha-wha if she doesnt like x and just bans it by hate no reasoning whatsoever will the "No" side lose all investment plz answer someone what do the ryules where to read the rules say on this bhalf if that incident where to happen i sold my No position for good money back huhh..!
Fatboyslim
3 weeks ago
I have made THOUSANDS on here. I know what I am doing
nook
3 weeks ago
but you're a retard who only LOSES and LIES and BEGS for a refund on your Mr Beast shares, MORON! Kill yourself loser
Fatboyslim
3 weeks ago
Will take at least 3 weeks
Fatboyslim
3 weeks ago
Of course not. Purple is ugly and not in fashion.
Fatboyslim
3 weeks ago
Aren't there reports that he is already dead after his pager went off? How does this resolve if so?
Fatboyslim
0 months ago
What are you talking about? I bought at 1c, so that's a 10000% return in 2 months
TheBoyBilly
0 months ago
there are a lot of places to get more than 1% in 2 months
Fatboyslim
0 months ago
Exactly
CavaSoTasty
0 months ago
he either will or he won't, so 50%?
Fatboyslim
0 months ago
Agreed
Apsalar
0 months ago
ez money
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
10:30:59.5 is after 10:30:59. It's not that hard...
SusanWarren,HR
1 month ago
All this does is add extra confusion. What if the debate ends at 10:30:59.5?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It's a coin flip
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
If any candidate makes it overrun they lose my vote and the vote of millions of others. I have things to do and places to be, it would be a complete disrespect of my time.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Time is relative. What if I watch the broadcast while travelling close to the speed of light??
Car
1 month ago
seconds are the same length everywhere in the world.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
We never left
Car
1 month ago
we are so back
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You are really comparing your mom to the most powerful man in the world?
n/a
1 month ago
There is no way he makes it 5 more months. I just watched my mom pass from Alzheimers and saw how it went. He will be bedridden or passed by Jan, that is my prediction based on what I saw with my mom when she was in a similar condition as Biden is now.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This is very mispriced
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Nielsen gets its numbers from vibes, it has no way of really knowing the numbers. They'll probably put it around 55m
UMAisGarbage
1 month ago
Ya'll are crazy. The last debate had 53mm viewers per Nielsen, the standard used in this market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
No one is going to want to watch this. They have better things to do with their time
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
FUCK. Just sold my holdings after confirming. Thank you for sharing, I am forever grateful
analord
1 month ago
just tweaked the numbers of the JRP repository, returns 119 every time. 130 only returns if you don't account for the celsius/fahrenheit conversion in the first few lines
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Why are you talking to yourself?
aenews3
1 month ago
If you mean El Nino is finally over you are correct. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153058/el-nino-exits
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
No
0xbc6043cF7C50f4a5248dc0475BFB184B27914F18-1723825159989
1 month ago
kamala will say im speaking and you guys cant do nothing about it
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Fake news fake account fake science
aenews3
1 month ago
We are going below average folks. 50 Pence is making a big mistake do not copy trade. https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2024-09-08.gif
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Fake news
nosrael
1 month ago
They are telling you but you won't listen https://x.com/iranspec/status/1824418557616414750?s=46
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Then why does it say there are no fees, specifically for this market?
BlueSky123
1 month ago
None, actually
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Iran signed the treaty of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, they agreed not to have nukes. So it is impossible!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Even if he was doping?
Candiey
1 month ago
no
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It's still possible for Magnus to do something that gets him disqualified from the tournament, no?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Wait so a fetus watching doesn't count?
SusanWarren,HR
1 month ago
Wait, so 1-year-olds don't count for viewership but 2-year-olds do?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Too early
Amok
1 month ago
Why is this not resolved?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I lost money, so you should be the one to tip me
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
0x4987eA1F1Cdfeeb2df6ce1D2d4E680eDf3cB804b
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Too soon
BlueSky123
1 month ago
Can this be proposed for Hikaru YES or is it too soon?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Go hans!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
YatSen rigged this
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
YatSan is manipulating the market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It's first to 90, not 60... 🤡
betyonko
1 month ago
Trump has already around 60 points. Within this hour it will be over for the idiots trying to manipulate a 800m market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Are you building a wall at 50.1?
n/a
1 month ago
That entire pump was one guy, and not even the top holder; more fun awaits!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It just flipped 🚨
betyonko
1 month ago
it is impossible to manipulate a 800m market. you should have billions to spend
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
DJTHolder moving the market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Still time to get in on the action
Spartan37
1 month ago
No joke, I thought the other day that this might happen...
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It's 49% 49%
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This is insane, they did it
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Yatsen is fucked. Why did he risk so much?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Shit is getting wild
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Where is the pump? I am getting worried
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Just watch 🤡
FinallyHappening
1 month ago
your source is that ou made it the fuck up
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
5 minutes until take off 🚀
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Things are going to get wild soon
BallzToTheWalz
1 month ago
I gotta stop reading polymarket comments man, im too easy to fool f*ck
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
No one is above the law
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Where do you get October from? I bet based on the rules, which states September!
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
Text is supposed to say "October 7th"... Why cant you get these Rules right ffs?!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
But Patel is already out of the race...
kussistyles
1 month ago
I focus on Robert Jenrick, but I prefer Priti Patel.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This is a fun market. It's going to get crazy on Friday
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You inspired me. I'm getting more USDC deposited now. Let's do this
Apsalar
1 month ago
I'm not saying that I'd be able to bring her shares up myself, but I'll certainly be lending a hand.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Polymarket requires more conclusive evidence.
0xE42c9d2ef
1 month ago
gm, why is this still a question? spanish authorities confirmed and an autopsy was done. Close it https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/john-mcafees-corpse-still-spanish-morgue-year-after-his-death-2022-06-23/
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
https://x.com/greg16676935420/status/1830811871890546741
sbot
1 month ago
what do you mean by clock?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Should have been an easy market, the answer was right there on the clock, but I got convinced by Autism and lost 😭
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Gg, it's over
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What is going on?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
SusanWarren,HR 1m ago Bought 100 Yes at 47.9¢ ($48)
tsybka
1 month ago
lmao...
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Crazy chick
tsybka
1 month ago
Poly is filled with idiots.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Is insider information moving this market? Or what is the reason for the probability to change?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
All the Polymarket whales are on the No side. Do they know something we don't? 🤔
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Why is this not resolved when the August market resolved?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Do you mean Eastern Europe time?
x4839F00491B7b5E0Ad83c28A3BeDd0aFCB9A6D20
1 month ago
To anyone trying to dispute. The drone hit the oil refinery, it was within the time frame (eastern time, not local!) it was in Moscow, it was not intercepted and it was verified by credible media sources.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Instructions unclear. I am now a car 🚙
Car
1 month ago
Time to pack it up NO holders! Knowing when your wrong and switching sides is also part of the game.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Easy market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Obviously it's not. It's a proxy war, between Russia and the US
abdendriel
1 month ago
Who knows if the war is really between Ukraine and Russia?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ukraine themselves have not taken responsibility for the attack
abdendriel
1 month ago
They’re not quoting Moscow in fact. They’re just stating it in the headline of the article.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What is their source?
abdendriel
1 month ago
They’re not quoting Moscow in fact. They’re just stating it in the headline of the article.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Is the credible source quoting Moscow? The same Moscow that tells us they shot it down?
abdendriel
1 month ago
Not needed to resolve this. Credible sources are reporting it as a Ukrainian drone attack. Source is from credible sources, not one of us
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
The source claiming it was Ukraine is Russia. If we are trusting Russia then we need to also believe they shot it down
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Show me a shred of evidence day Ukraine operated these drones, and not the US or Russia
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
If it deternated at the right time, it would have caused some real damage
abdendriel
1 month ago
Damage was reported by WSJ to be caused by detonation, not falling debris. If a drone can receive a signal to detonate at the right time, it wasn’t intercepted.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I trust RT more than fake news WSJ on these matters
abdendriel
1 month ago
Damage was reported by WSJ to be caused by detonation, not falling debris. If a drone can receive a signal to detonate at the right time, it wasn’t intercepted.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
And Ukraine has not disputed that fact
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Russian MoD confirmed it was debris
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Russian MoD confirmed it was debris
abdendriel
1 month ago
To say that the drone was intercepted would be like saying that Trump was assassinated. WSJ reports it as detonating over the plant, which is how drones work when they’re working.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What is your point?
n/a
1 month ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You need to provide a CREDIBLE source
n/a
1 month ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Very easy to fake this with AI. Where is your proof?
n/a
1 month ago
You can clearly see the drone hitting the Moscow oil refinery. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f691fd/ukrainian_drone_hits_the_kapotnya_oil_refinery_in/
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Once it is shot down, it's irrelevant if it hits or not
Lit1211
1 month ago
There are several videos from different angles with direct hit. Reality is disappointing, isn't it?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
True, but at this point it's up to UMA whales, and the truth doesn't matter
dreamer
1 month ago
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/01/g-s1-20509/russia-downed-drones-in-ukrainian-attack#:~:text=Moscow%20Mayor%20Sergei%20Sobyanin%20said,into%20the%20heart%20of%20Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones All the sources here corroborate that the drone was shot down and the fire was caused by the debris.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
The oil refinery that was struck with debris is actually in Yaroslavsky 🤔
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Maybe try linking to some credible reporting instead
n/a
1 month ago
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830141465109885419 This is the best vid of refinery attack. Super clear hit, definitely not a crash.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This was very clearly shot down, and all major news organisations are reporting as such
Loverboy
1 month ago
there is a video of a direct hit by a drone on an oil refinery in Moscow https://x.com/toprankcapital/status/1830119827048124548
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You claimed you bought your position weeks ago, when in reality you had an open order and were pushing a false narrative to buy cheaper. Disgusting behavior.
Werty1
1 month ago
LMAOOOOO NO FUCKING WAY I GOT FILLED YES AT 43 CENTS who the fuck market buys with 2k usd
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
That kind of language is unacceptable here.
Greta-Tunafish
1 month ago
russia is talking shit
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Fake Twitter videos are not "credible reporting".
Nami-Swann
1 month ago
bro the mayor of the capital would never admit to a strike. Please watch this video https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830111733207409046 and the geolocation of the POV https://x.com/Grimm_Intel/status/1830116389887070379 CLOSE UP OF THE HIT https://x.com/markito0171/status/1830136315205099764 And further damage https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830133240163627285 Both goverments lie a lot about hits. Its not the only source.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
"The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
Nami-Swann
1 month ago
bro the mayor of the capital would never admit to a strike. Please watch this video https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830111733207409046 and the geolocation of the POV https://x.com/Grimm_Intel/status/1830116389887070379 CLOSE UP OF THE HIT https://x.com/markito0171/status/1830136315205099764 And further damage https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830133240163627285 Both goverments lie a lot about hits. Its not the only source.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
How could you think this was real? 😂
Car
1 month ago
people do realize by now you are a scammer trying to get a cheap NO entry.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
4 or 5?
Car
1 month ago
Alien is at 5
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Big if true
Car
1 month ago
War is not the solution. Peace is the solution.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ordering a ban to take place is not the same as the ban having started. It is still possible it could get reversed before it's even implemented and there is never any ban
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Majority of Brazilian citizens can still use it, so as per the rules it should be No.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Majority of Brazilian citizens can still use it, so as per the rules it should be No.
BlueSky123
1 month ago
To no holders, just because Twitter hasn't blocked Brazilian IPs and ISPs haven't blocked Twitter yet doesn't mean it isn't banned. But if you feel like donating $750, the dispute button is right there.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I deleted the app and redownloaded it to test. No issues
BlueSky123
1 month ago
Just because you CAN use it, doesn't mean it's not banned. ISPs have 5 days to enforce the ban without getting punished.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
It is not banned, there is no block yet
BlueSky123
1 month ago
Just because you CAN use it, doesn't mean it's not banned. ISPs have 5 days to enforce the ban without getting punished.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Exactly! ISPs have been given 5 days to ban it. For now it is still usable just as normal
EdZin
1 month ago
I wont be able to dispute! Absolutley terrible from Poly, the rule is clearley stated! WTF... This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within Brazil for the majority of Brazilian citizens. I am from Brazil and X is still online!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I'm waiting for aenews to bet before deciding which way to go
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What do you expect not redeeming to do? It's over 😂
PanosMariolis2001
1 month ago
DO NOT REDEEM YOUR SHARES. THE RULES WERE AS CLEAR AS DAYLIGHT
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
UMA means Polymarket is not responsible for outcomes, because it's all decentralised. So if a mistake is made, no one can sue them, because they had no influence on the result
432
1 month ago
UMA has been overruled ? What purpose has UMA if all they do is wrong
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
PM should refund those markets. That's fucked up
AG1234
1 month ago
Look at the Venezuelan/RFK markets, Maduro's president and the court certified him, and they resolved him "No". You lose your money and get scammed is what happens
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
If you are smart, you can see that there was always 0% chance of No winning
gun
1 month ago
just because one side played out the others are idiots?? maybe you are the idiot
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
How?
Inconnu
1 month ago
🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷🤮🤮🤮🤮
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This is an INSANE market
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
That is not the same as being released from custody, which is what the market requires.
doyoufeelit
1 month ago
"Paris CNN — Telegram founder Pavel Durov was released from police custody in France on Wednesday" This is wraps, resolve this
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
When did Susan start winning markets? Something is not right here.
SusanWarren,HR
1 month ago
The Pro Beaver predicted all of this days ago. Sell your "No" shares while you can - Susan's last warning of the night!
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
How does this resolve if he dies?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Obviously he is going to court, that's not what this market is about
432
1 month ago
If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This rule shows clearly YES won because he has been released from police custody and is now obliged to appear in court which is no custody but can count like a house arrest
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
So this will resolve 50-50? What is happening
LMNOP
1 month ago
32% of votes have been revealed and it's strongly favoring "Too early" at 91%. Take that with a grain of salt though, similar thing happened in the rfk markets and then it quickly turned.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Why is there no clarification or comment from Polymarket?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Give me my winnings already. What's the hold up?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
How do we dispute this?
SharkNuts
1 month ago
How is he arrested when he is under house arrest this should of clearly stated what it meant by him being arested
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I did not see your warning, and got convinced by the hustlers
Mountainman
1 month ago
I tried to warn so many of you that nefarious people were pumping this up to dump on you. They all sold far before the decision. All of you "NO"'s got your first lesson at Hustlers University.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I got scammed 😔
n/a
1 month ago
exactly mr. car
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Do you really believe this?
aenews2
1 month ago
Jack might have a twin named Jill, even if you're right! Unlikely tho, I know..
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
50p is in now. It's all over 😢
Sit
1 month ago
Domer sold shares
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
The comment that moved the market
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
I think it should be Yes, but this seems like a very dumb fight so I don't want to get too involved lol.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
No one would look at a square and call it a rectangle. That's ridiculous
5to5000
1 month ago
Yes, it's not specified what type of arrest, only an arrest. House arrest is type of arrest. It's like if the market had a picture of a square, and the question was Is this a rectangle?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I would have won this side bet. I shouldn't have listened to comments 😢
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Anyone wanna side bet on how long until Car swaps sides again?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
But now Yes is going back up
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
That's what I thought, but then I sold my position because everyone was saying it didn't count as an arrest. Don't really understand it tbh
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
That's what I thought, but then I sold my position because everyone was saying it didn't count as an arrest. Don't really understand it tbh
Natemo
1 month ago
wasn't he already arrested when the police stormed his house like 2 days ago...?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Should we be worried that JustKam whale has taken up position on the Yes side?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
OK you convinced me. Hope you're right
n/a
1 month ago
exactly mr. car
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
If that's how markets worked, I would be very rich. If it was so clear, it would not be at 40% odds. Just a fact
n/a
1 month ago
exactly mr. car
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You say that so confidently, and yet the market disagrees with you.
n/a
1 month ago
exactly mr. car
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Anyone wanna side bet on how long until Car swaps sides again?
Car
1 month ago
Detained at his home, then questioned, then placed under house arrest. Never got arrested like the rules want.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You know he doesn't write tweets himself, right? His team manages it
XiJinPing
1 month ago
PSA: Trump is in Las Vegas, Nevada tomorrow morning (3 hours behind EST)... so that means 12pm EST is 9am PST Trump local time. He has basically 8-9am (1 hour) local time for 7 tweets.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
https://www.editorji.com/world-news/andrew-tate-brother-arrested-in-new-human-trafficking-case-in-romania-1724304519459
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Even if it didn't, it would still resolve yes
-Rocambole-
1 month ago
"house arrest" implies this narket solves to YES?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
The reason you have a negative P/L is bad takes like this. Maybe look up "arrest" in a dictionary.
n/a
1 month ago
House arrest is not arrested
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
A house arrest is a type of arrest, hence the name. But regardless, he was arrested and put in handcuffs prior to the house arrest
n/a
1 month ago
House arrest and being arrested are different legal situations. - House arrest means you're confined to your home instead of being in jail, usually as a condition of bail or sentencing. - Being arrested means you've been taken into police custody for a suspected crime. House arrest often follows an arrest, but being under house arrest doesn't mean you're currently being arrested.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Even a citizen's arrest is an arrest
n/a
1 month ago
Being arrested implies there being specific charges. If getting handcuffed = arrested, why was this market created? To automatically settle to $1?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
We don't need charges to arrest
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Maybe in your country. This is Romania
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Maybe in your country. This is Romania
n/a
1 month ago
Being arrested implies there being specific charges. If getting handcuffed = arrested, why was this market created? To automatically settle to $1?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I've actually been tested and I have an above average IQ. Now who's dumb?
n/a
1 month ago
how the fuck are you so stupid? this is why you spent half the market lifetime of the Mr Beast market begging me to let you out of your winning bet, then immediately spent the other half of the market begging me to let you back in. SHUT THE FUCK UP. YOU DUMB BITCH. YOU ARE NOT CLEVER.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
That requires a conspiracy. This just requires one guy who wants to make money
n/a
1 month ago
What's stopping Russia from not clearing out Kursk region from Ukranians then make a bet Ukranians will still be there?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What's stopping Nate buying No, and making a bad call?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
EU is too big and powerful for this. It would be like trying to ban X in China. Not going to happen.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
The picture has nothing to do with Israel. Why are you turning everything into a conspiracy?
Apsalar
1 month ago
some people think that the israel issue is going to have a significant impact on the result in michigan
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Sweden is closer to the US than Congo
BigDoh
1 month ago
Why’s that
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Which way does this resolve if he has a heart attack tomorrow?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I created my own model, running it through a monte carlo simulation, and came to the same conclusion
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Done 100 simulations with AI, 2 times without debate, 10 times they shake hands, 87 times they don't shake hands and 1 they shake hands and instantly melt into one person. Do what you want with this info
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
How are you so sure? There is a 3% chance of it happening
Amok
1 month ago
Inflation is like 10-15% annually. Even if you win this bet, you lose money
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
I feel like I am being squeezed out of my position by insiders. Should I sell? 😞
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Holy shit, already 500 dead in Congo. This is a depressing market, I can't take more years of lockdown
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
What do you mean? You can buy at 3.5c and win tomorrow with a huge gain. Just depends when civil war is officially declared
Amok
1 month ago
Inflation is like 10-15% annually. Even if you win this bet, you lose money
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
You know Russia has drones, right?
Bwrbouere
1 month ago
easiest 20% return I've seen in my life. The Russian will need weeks to reorganise and at least a full week to carry on their offensive while the momentum is at the moment of writing this in Ukraine hands. Thanks for the free money Ruzzian simp
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Glad to see another smart person on here, but you should keep this out of the comments, we don't want everyone to know.
n/a
1 month ago
There is an extremly common bias of underestimating the length of wars, which, if it also applies to smaller operations, would make this and similar market biased towards the "no" option.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Agreed, and there is not much Russia can do about it.
n/a
1 month ago
I think this is too sweet a gift for negotiations to give away so easily
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Why is Apsalar buying up No?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Trump already launched a token, and the clarification clearly states this counts. What am I missing?
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
This is fake news
n/a
1 month ago
https://www.worlddata.info/asia/japan/earthquakes.php
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
If this was true, you would not buy No...
n/a
1 month ago
August 8th had a 7.1 in Japan, since then, there have been significant earthquakes in Japan at least every day:
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ok but that is 5% in a week, not a month. It doesn't apply here.
n/a
1 month ago
The article I linked just mentions that there is a 5% chance of a larger earthquake following the recent one.
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
There is an active megaquake alert, but that doesn't guarantee it'll hit this month...
n/a
1 month ago
I think they opened this market mostly because of this: https://x.com/ScienceNews/status/1822105630452175321
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Americans are not allowed to use Polymarket, so the US is one of the few counties guaranteed to count as "foreign". But according to the rules it doesn't even need to be foreign; any state will do.
n/a
1 month ago
nothing foreign about USgov, lol
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
The only fair thing to do is a 50-50 split. Then everyone wins
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Is it Polymarket's profit, or is it burned USDC?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
A fake negrisk market, because "other" did not include all the options. Now every option should resolve "no", but where does the money go that was converted from "no" to "yes"?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
A fake negrisk market, because "other" did not include all the options. Now every option should resolve "no", but where does the money go that was converted from "no" to "yes"?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
This is a lie. It was the 9th not 15th.
aenews2
2 months ago
On or before the dates on release page: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Do you work at NASA?
aenews2
2 months ago
climate deniers btfo
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
This was a scam
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
It would be funny, if he wasn't encouraging others to buy. I feel bad for them
moviesera92
2 months ago
Whatever you say, the one guy who is manipluting the prices and making all these comments might as well be doing this stupid stuff but is certainly funny.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Thank you for the update 🤫
JeffreyBezos
2 months ago
hello I am the Owner of NASA back again after my last update. I just wanted to let you all know I checked the records again and it is still going to be settle at NO. you are all welcome
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Your trust is misplaced
Apsalar
2 months ago
You're buying YES because you decoded and reverse engineered NASA's model and then plugged in the entirely of this months' data. I'm buying YES because I trust aenews to do that for me. We are not the same.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
What time does the data usually come out?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Not everybody. Some people looked at the correct numbers, and bought No...
aenews2
2 months ago
Maybe everyone is collectively making the same mistakes and we were looking at the wrong numbers all along!
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Why selling?
factman
2 months ago
@aenews2?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
But at this point it seems very unlikely Yes can win.
Lyapunov
2 months ago
The important thing is that No was the probabilistically correct choice ever since July 31th, when all data was available and the price was always below 80c. Even in the unlikely (20%) event that this turn to be a Yes, Yes was never the right choice.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Exactly. Even if Yes wins, No was the correct choice.
Lyapunov
2 months ago
The important thing is that No was the probabilistically correct choice ever since July 31th, when all data was available and the price was always below 80c. Even in the unlikely (20%) event that this turn to be a Yes, Yes was never the right choice.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Have you not seen the news?
lronmexico
2 months ago
I do not think the United Kingdom will enter a state of civil war in the next five months.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
It's over, you have lost!
KingofRingx3
2 months ago
Why would you submit again before the other market ends?
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
https://watchers.news/2024/07/15/rare-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-detected-over-antarctica/
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
How do I sell if there's no demand at the price I want?
ItCantBeTrollBoy
2 months ago
You can sell your shares at any time as long as there is demand at the price you want.
Fatboyslim
2 months ago
Please take your sexist comments out of here, Susan.
SusanWarren,HR
2 months ago
Behind every successful man, there's a woman. It's Haley.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
If it's guaranteed up get disputed then no one will propose the result, and the market will remain open forever.
0xaf
3 months ago
It's when it will be disputed. Voting can take a few days
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
You will benefit thousands if this goes your way, and you are calling those with differing views scammers (even though the market agrees with them). You are attempting to manipulate the market
0xaf
3 months ago
Don't let people troll you into buying YES or NO. Unless you have done the research here you will lose money. People are scamming below very extensively.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
If that's true, why is it at 27%?
Car
3 months ago
on 12PM ET, june 23 UMA will vote based on the evidence provided by both sides. As of right now theres alot more proof for YES holders.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
As the market thinks there's a 27% chance, it will be safe to resolve this as No.
dacoop1
3 months ago
from my lawyer friend regarding the word "preponderance of evidence": In the Barron Trump and $DJT token scenario, preponderance of evidence would be satisfied if, after considering all the available information, it seems more likely than not (over 50% chance) that Barron Trump was involved. If all the gathered evidence (rumors, indirect claims, circumstantial data) together make it seem more likely than not that Barron Trump was involved, then it meets this standard. Circumstantial data indicating that it is more likely a No vs Yes. Good luck everyone!
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
I love portugal
anxiety23
3 months ago
actual bandwagon hopper
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Go Portugal! I always believed in you
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
3% on average? By your logic it's doubling every month, and if that's true you should just buy NVDA 🤣
Car
3 months ago
0.946% left for NVDA to reclaim top spot. The stock rises like 3% on average lately so im not worried yet
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Try turning the graph the right way up
Car
3 months ago
NVDA is currently underneath the mean.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
He is 40...
Car
3 months ago
Ronaldo the goat
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Have none of you heard of regression to the mean? Microsoft has this.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
next time we win
Zeros
3 months ago
switserland is winning
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
you lied. they did not win :(
Zeros
3 months ago
switserland is winning
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
ok i bet. i hope you are right
Zeros
3 months ago
switserland is winning
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
no
Zeros
3 months ago
switserland is winning
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Germany EZ
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Biden wins yet again :(
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
是的
risingone
3 months ago
捷克给我赢
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
No one calls it Czechia. It's the Czech Republic.
Fatboyslim
3 months ago
Disgusting 🤢
SusanWarren,HR
4 months ago
Nigel is an absolute heartthrob.
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
krilk
4 months ago
eng football the best
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
I will report you if you continue. Final warning!
n/a
4 months ago
LMAO you weird dweeb, you don't own this market, you dumb fuck.
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
MrBeast is still MILLIONS of subscribers away. How will he ever catch up?
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Was it arbitraged, or straight loss?
Car
4 months ago
he lost -5k$ on a NBA market do not bet on anything this MrBeast admirer is betting on!
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Interesting market 🤔
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Stop stalking me, you know nothing
n/a
4 months ago
also, "shouldn't this market be trading closer to 50-50? uwu" to quote a certain idiot
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
It's over: politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Math is you lost $60 more than you should have 😢
Decap
4 months ago
I'll lose maybe $60 on this market, but I made $300 on Furiosa, can someone do the maths for me please?
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Let's unite youtube.com/watch?v=TqLnKj0-xyw 🇮🇳
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
What just happened
n/a
4 months ago
Damn
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Please watch your language, Susan. This is your last warning.
SusanWarren,HR
4 months ago
I, too, was fucked. With no lubricant :(
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
Maybe the drunks can figure out how to turn it back on
THEOPTIONSKING
4 months ago
It's over. Dublin City Council has gone home for the day. It's 7 pm in Dublin.
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
And the end of the week is Sunday anyway
OneMoneyPlz
4 months ago
The news might say that they will open by the end of the week but the source said "soon". And based on the behavior of people I think they might need a while. Probably going to move the portal to somewhere else in Dublin
Fatboyslim
4 months ago
They won't risk turning it on again
🤺JustKen
4 months ago
The Portal is currently under arrest, and is unlikely to get out of jail in time to go live again
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
9 hours for 8 more tweets. Easy.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
And on what planet???
Car
5 months ago
celsius or fahrenheit? unclear rules!!!!
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
2024 BC or AD?!
Car
5 months ago
celsius or fahrenheit? unclear rules!!!!
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
I sent you already
Jordcapp
5 months ago
yo bro can u tip me 2$?
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Watch your language Susan, this is your last warning.
SusanWarren,HR
5 months ago
I would never try marijuana. It should remain Schedule I.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
I'm starting to think redbloodzcell is Elon Musk
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
It's getting hot in here 🔥
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
He is alive
n/a
5 months ago
Always buy B1, it functions as a death bracket
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Sure, I sent it.
DOME
5 months ago
Hey bro can u tip me 5$?
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Why are you doing this to me Elon? 😠
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Did he die? Why has he stopped tweeting?
redbloodzcell
5 months ago
NO MORE TWEETS ELON!!!
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Don't forget that Trump famously hates dogs.
Apsalar
5 months ago
If I wanted to be Vice President I would simply not brag about killing a puppy.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
In Elon we trust
jerusalemsniper13
5 months ago
elon fasho tweeting 80-99
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Other 🇳🇱
Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF
5 months ago
Where Europapa at?
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
EuroJury votes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1REaq_b0d7Ml5wxU-lkWOBhhSH6_8bL_KRMxnJ-mtLvw/edit#gid=1425704729
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
How can you have over $5m volume if you really only put in $250?
0xaf
5 months ago
Eh? I'm up like 20x since last withdrawal. No clue what you're talking about.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
What's your ELO?
n/a
5 months ago
using suboptimal resources does not excuse your shitty trading, shitbag!
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
It's game over for Hikaru now, at best he will get a draw.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
It's very rude to call "Gukesh" an "other", and it makes Polymarket look bad. Please update it.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Wtf was that
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Switzerland really over inflated now, even the bookies are giving out better odds. 😂
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Switzerland really over inflated now, even the bookies are giving out better odds. 😂
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
You should not vote if you are the house; there is a conflict of interest.
VibesGreaterRules
5 months ago
Voted No with my 2.4 million UMAs. Take that as you will.
Fatboyslim
5 months ago
Be careful with what year the tweet was posted in... https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586918804780630016
Fatboyslim
6 months ago
I'll buy whaever you're selling 😂