#369
Rank
132
Comments
53
Likes Received
26
Likes Given
Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
where did she cancel her attempt, can you send a link?
0
drac0nian
5 months ago
Should I propose?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
can one of you no bros fill me at 99.7, it is only a small $87.
0
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
this wont start for another hour and 20 minutes
0
n/a
5 months ago
Is there news that all the senators have gathered for confirmation?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
luckily congress doesn't use this!
0
INK
5 months ago
https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
11:59pm EST
1
Justifax
5 months ago
ez no, cert won't happen by PM time tomorrow. This should be like 50 50 imho
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
It obviously doesn't mean noon.
2
dmb98
5 months ago
The rules don't have a certified by time, can this be updated before tomorrow, so we don't have another goverment shutdown fiasco?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
lol
1
dmb98
5 months ago
The rules don't have a certified by time, can this be updated before tomorrow, so we don't have another goverment shutdown fiasco?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
"Lawmakers could still vote to reschedule this year’s certification for a later date if they wanted to but that would still require a vote on Monday, meaning they would have to show up to the Capitol anyway." By law to change the date it has to be done in person at the Capitol. Lol. Did you not want to mention that part? By law to change the date it has to be done in person and with a majority of congress people present
2
n/a
5 months ago
Excerpt from the article: ..."To change that date, for example in the event of a severe snowstorm, Congress would have to pass a law moving the date of the joint session. "In the past, Congress has often changed the date for counting electoral votes when Jan. 6 fell on a Sunday or for other reasons of convenience. The date is not set by the Constitution, but is chosen by Congress and can be easily moved," said Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame..."
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
at least that is what staff told me
1
Occult
5 months ago
so uh, what time does this resolve?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
It is not a typo. They do this in some markets. It is because previously the rules would state something like "11:59 PM EST" but people would say "does 11:59:59PM EST count". So this way of writing the rules is inclusive of all time before the next day.
0
Occult
5 months ago
so uh, what time does this resolve?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
https://archive.is/VqhGC one of the best articles talking about this situation
1
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
when the certification occurs?
1
Occult
5 months ago
so uh, what time does this resolve?
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/winter-storm-will-not-delay-trump-election-certification-congress-house-leader-2025-01-05/
1
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
did you not know Jan 6 is the constitutionally required date. This isnt some random day they choose. It would take 3 feet of snow to postpone
2
pantomime
5 months ago
https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1875660343856238805?s=46&t=1yD5W4V9-fEFU1dh69HPFw snow stops at 8 , voting is at 1 gl
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
luckily 5-10 inches is nowhere near enough to actually block roads lol
2
pantomime
5 months ago
https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1875660343856238805?s=46&t=1yD5W4V9-fEFU1dh69HPFw snow stops at 8 , voting is at 1 gl
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
I reduced my exposure because the weather certainly is a risk. But that is simply not that much snow.
2
Emptiness.
5 months ago
If they can't get to work, they can't certify the votes. Yes holders really think they are gonna be driving through 5 to 10 inches of snow lmaooo
Election certified on January 6?
MineGuyBonds
5 months ago
in what world is 5 to 10 inches with snowplows not enough to get to work. Do you live in Texas or LA lolol
3
Emptiness.
5 months ago
If they can't get to work, they can't certify the votes. Yes holders really think they are gonna be driving through 5 to 10 inches of snow lmaooo
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
the count would need to be near double what is possible for a Casey win to be realistic at this point
0
FBInformationsider
7 months ago
Update: Casey would have to win MORE THAN 80% OF REMAINING VOTE AND THEN SOME
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
I have a large spreadsheet with every ballot update for the last 3 days with estimated outstanding ballots, margins, and extrapolated outcomes. I have McCormick winning by ~11,000 votes as of now.
0
FBInformationsider
7 months ago
Updated FBI projection: McCormick (R) unseats incumbent senator Bob Casey (D) by 15,000 votes
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
Casey lost the Bucks county provisional ballot drop just now lol
0
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
We know it's between 45,000 and 55,000
0
RobertF
7 months ago
Still 40k votes to count. Looks like a recount is triggered as well
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
Yea the real number is 74.87%
0
RobertF
7 months ago
Still 40k votes to count. Looks like a recount is triggered as well
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
NBC will call the election before the recount ends undoubtedly
0
FBInformationsider
7 months ago
This is the deadest market on this site
Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
7 months ago
that is terrible for Casey lol
0
FBInformationsider
7 months ago
We're basically done counting most of the votes aren't we except for the provisionals that failed on the first review?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
no I am not! I have 300K No shares that are hidden
1
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
None of Donald J. Trump, any of his family members or any director, officer or employee of the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective affiliates is an officer, director, founder, or employee of World Liberty Financial or its affiliates. None of World Liberty Financial, Inc
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
None of Donald J. Trump, any of his family members or any director, officer or employee of the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective affiliates is an officer, director, founder, or employee of World Liberty Financial or its affiliates. None of World Liberty Financial, Inc
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
The voting is over, YES Won
1
n/a
8 months ago
Dear Polymarket Team, I would like to address the ongoing resolution regarding Donald Trump’s involvement in the deployment of the WLFI token. Argument for “No”: 1. Official documents from World Liberty Financial (WLFI) clearly state that Donald Trump is not legally or technically affiliated with the project. Despite his promotional efforts, he is not part of the token’s development or deployment, and this is explicitly mentioned in trusted sources like CoinMarketCap. 2. Promotional involvement does not equate to participation in the deployment of the token, as required by the market’s conditions. The market stipulates that “conclusive, definitive evidence” is needed to prove Trump’s involvement in the technical or operational aspects, which is clearly absent. Adding to this, the system’s fairness is compromised by the influence of large token holders (whales), who can manipulate voting outcomes regardless of factual evidence. This turns the prediction market into a game of financial dominance rather than an evaluation based on truth. The essence of placing bets is lost if outcomes are dictated not by reality, but by those with more resources, undermining the fairness and integrity of the process. Given these points, it is only logical that this market resolves as “No”, as the facts clearly indicate that Trump was not involved in the deployment of the WLFI token.
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
That's not what happened. Friday data includes Thursday previews. Sunday data hasn't been added to the total yet
0
Ania-chan
8 months ago
mojo forget to add preview data
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
You can't just say "fuck it we don't count Sunday in the total" resolve plz.
2
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
"will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 11 - 13) are final". Please tell me what day October 13th is. While you are correct it says to use the weekend result. It says to use the weekend result only once EACH DAY inside October 11-13 is final and has been added to the weekend tabulation.
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
"will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 11 - 13) are final". Please tell me what day October 13th is. While you are correct it says to use the weekend result. It says to use the weekend result only once EACH DAY inside October 11-13 is final and has been added to the weekend tabulation.
1
TwistedFate
8 months ago
someone already proposed YES for under 16M and it was disputed lol, careful guys as currently market is about to resolve YES for under 16, i know mojo will be updated in the future but as of now it states 14.1M as final, not estimated anymore
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Why are you distorting the truth. The market rules specify Sunday results have to be in. They are not. Save it. You look ridiculous
2
TwistedFate
8 months ago
someone already proposed YES for under 16M and it was disputed lol, careful guys as currently market is about to resolve YES for under 16, i know mojo will be updated in the future but as of now it states 14.1M as final, not estimated anymore
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Just so you know. Thursday previews have already been added. This is not what this is about. Thursday was ~$2.6M and Friday was $5.5M. Once the weekend starts, Thursday previews just get added to Friday total. This isn't where the discrepancy came from. It's that Sunday's tabulation has not been added to the weekend total. There is no extra $2M on top of Sundays number.
1
MaxTheMax
8 months ago
"(which typically includes Thursday's previews)." In which case, there is another 2M+ to add to the total, bringing it to over 21 million. According to https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Terrifier-3-(2024)#tab=box-office , which seems to be where mojo gets their numbers from.
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
No. It is not. The $14.1 Million number only includes Friday + Saturday. Sunday results have not been added. Estimates are showing it'll be between $18.75 - $19.1 Million. Likely being between $18.8 and $18.9 Million.
0
CenturyFox
8 months ago
Is it 14 million right?
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Please show direct math. I will. The $14.1 Million is from adding Friday ($8.19 Million) + Saturday ($5.91 Million) 5.91 + 8.19 = $14.1 You are legitimately advocating to not include Sundays results which has not been tabulated. Please show direct proof and evidence otherwise.
0
TwistedFate
8 months ago
it was already added to the 18.9M number, however as you can see the tab on mojo clearly states 14.1M and its final (not estimate anymore)
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2221441025/
0
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
The market rules state the sales numbers for every day between October 11-13 needs to be final. The numbers for October 11 and 12 are final. 13 is not yet. You can see this by navigating to this link and seeing the Sunday result is still blue. (The $14M is just Friday + Saturday results. Rules specify you need to wait until Sunday is added as well)
'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
The market rules state the sales numbers for every day between October 11-13 needs to be final. The numbers for October 11 and 12 are final. 13 is not yet. You can see this by navigating to this link and seeing the Sunday result is still blue. (The $14M is just Friday + Saturday results. Rules specify you need to wait until Sunday is added as well)
0
TwistedFate
8 months ago
okay so why would resolution center care about anything when it states clearly that it cant be a estimate and it doesnt matter if the domestic refers only to the USA, canada etc. right now mojo result is 14M and ITS NOT estimate anymore, thus they should result this market to YES under 16M, correct me if im wrong
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Why would you dispute when it's obviously under 10?
0
ANudeEgg
8 months ago
Should I dispute China No or let someone else do it?
Milton landfall at what category?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
I am so mad you did this lol. I was in the midst of bonding this for 30,000 shares and pulled the order the second you started buying shares.
0
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I'm flying a plane over the storm right now I only measured 108 mph.
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
GG
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
He's sleeping for a few more hours. Likely closer to 2 per minute
0
- - 10207
8 months ago
When he wakes up he will have to keep up a minimum pace of 1 backflip-per-minute in order to reach 1009.
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Why are the rules so fucked up for this market. Wrong amount of flips and wrong end time.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Some people are delirious
1
aenews2
8 months ago
lol
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
What about Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Open Sourde intelligence community, CNN, and NBC? Is that not a consensus of credible reporting
0
Xzz
8 months ago
UMA will most likely vote P4. There is no where near enough information yet to determine that IDF soldiers stepped foot on Lebanese soil. P4 will cause the 'Yes' holders to panic. This is going to be interesting.
VP debate before election?
MineGuyBonds
8 months ago
Someone fill me please.
0
'Transformers One' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
You're just dumb. This was very clear
1
BallzToTheWalz
9 months ago
I see 38M and I'm like ... so why'd I lose my ass? Oh another PM fine print rule not clearly specified in the title
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Thank you to whoever filled me. This will buy my dinner tonight
1
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Fill my 35,000 shares at .02 then
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Fill my 35,000 shares at .02 then
0
itsok
9 months ago
I want 100K MORE!
Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
His influence is too great and he loves a good disputable market.
0
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Someone will eventually have the balls to do it. But myself and other proposers in a group chat stay away from even potentially disputable markets when JustKam is on the other side.
Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Someone will eventually have the balls to do it. But myself and other proposers in a group chat stay away from even potentially disputable markets when JustKam is on the other side.
0
MrNFT
9 months ago
Free proposal for anyone
Microphones muted during ABC debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
You must be new. Polymarket staff adds the additional context and a market has never once gone against it.
2
Andy0091
9 months ago
who provides the additional context? Does that affect how its resolved? Don't really think you can provide "additional context" after the market is over... lmao
Annual inflation above 2.5% in August?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
2.5% final
0
VFALL
9 months ago
The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 2.6% YoY in August, at a softer pace than July’s 2.9% increase. Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-inflation-declining-further-towards-2-target-in-august-202409110443
Who will speak more at the debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/10/presidential-debate-live-updates-trump-harris.html
0
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/10/politics/speaking-times-harris-trump-debate-dg ,
Who will speak more at the debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/10/us/elections/trump-harris-attacks-debate-tracker.html
0
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/10/politics/speaking-times-harris-trump-debate-dg ,
Who will speak more at the debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/10/politics/speaking-times-harris-trump-debate-dg ,
0
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Someone resolve. It has already been called by CNN, New York Times, and CNBC
Who will speak more at the debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Someone resolve. It has already been called by CNN, New York Times, and CNBC
0
Who will speak more at the debate?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Trump talked much more. Video analysis has already proven this
0
eb..
9 months ago
The whole thing was rigged. Questions given in advance. And more time for her for her initial statement for each exchange. And then smaller amounts of time for him divided in segments. People were betting on trump because as they say, he did said a few things outside his time, but still, it is looking to me that she was really given more time. It looks like abc cheated. In your face really. It has to be counted.
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Take it to ¢99.9. Her motorcade arrived, husband wished her good luck, confirmed not sick. GG
1
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
It's at 83 with an estimated 26.5 for Sunday to get it to 110
0
Yirmyah
9 months ago
It’s already at 110, Easy 130 by the end of the day.
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
It seems they locked their account. Basically just said what is Polymarket and why are so many people contacting them. They tweeted about Beetlejuice Saturday numbers from a friend who worked at Warner
2
1mperator17
9 months ago
tweet deleted. what did it say
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Whoever is offering a random on Twitter money is fucking sick in the head 😂
3
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Lololol https://x.com/simbasnell/status/1832641173934006529?s=46&t=wIWvHQlOjhwtg73kF7eDow
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Lololol https://x.com/simbasnell/status/1832641173934006529?s=46&t=wIWvHQlOjhwtg73kF7eDow
5
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
What Indian is everyone talking about
0
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Given the rules this market can't be resolved until it's Saturday everywhere in the world. Which means we have to wait for Baker Island. Which is 9 hours behind eastern time
0
MrNFT
9 months ago
Actually yea listen to the comments on the last thread, UMA took the full amount from me because I was 20m early.,.
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
How has no one resolved Hikaru yet.
2
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
That market should open at Hikaru ¢70-¢75
1
MrNFT
9 months ago
can we get a hans vs hikaru market
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Magnus gets to 14 points, regardless of how it's done. Magnus wins
0
2024 August hottest on record?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
There is not even a tenth of a percent chance of No. Why are you guys doing this to yourself.
0
Lowyrok
9 months ago
nothing change since ~2nd september, yet N price down 80%, thanks for cheaper winning tickets
2024 August hottest on record?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
You must have missed the July market. Statistically this is ~91% likelihood for Yes right now
0
ZXCVBNM
9 months ago
Sure, but not as bad as the Yes holders
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
This was known in the private telegram for the last 8 hours. Found the model of the timer and it didn't have clock functionality.
0
tunatyler
9 months ago
The clock photo was right all along lol
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
You know that people in the discord found the exact model of that timer and it is in fact just a timer. No clock functionality. As well as already determined the interview couldn't have taken place between noon and 1pm either given Trump's schedule is public. You seem very lost.
0
OmenOfLord
9 months ago
It did not leak. Someone dumped all their shares, thousands for a huge loss, and people are excited about the clock again.
ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Rules make it seem like any integration, beta or not, will suffice
0
none1195
10 months ago
really need them to clarify if this means a public, main channel release or a beta channel release because it'll definatly hit the beta channel before September ends, but no way it hits the public channel before November.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Thank you for filling my bags
0
wagabazajr
9 months ago
Just did
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Someone put their money where their mouth is and spend $100 on NO shares
0
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Even if the largest end of the margin of error occurred it would still be 602.1 Million. I have no idea how this isn't at 99.7+ yet
1
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Friday and Saturday estimates are already confirmed. Sunday estimate has a margin of error of less than 1%. Just need ~$1M on Labor Day to cross $600M
2
Guggs
9 months ago
I think the market is significantly overvaluing 'yes'. All the articles so far have just estimated the domestic gross. Or said it hit 600M based on some estimate. The numbers aren't out yet and there is a very small margin over 600m.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
You are so stupid lol
1
MarinaAF
9 months ago
To anyone trying to dispute. For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Read that again.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
We can see on video the Drone being active and controlled before it blows up at the refinery
3
MarinaAF
9 months ago
UMA is a lies machine. UMA is a fake news machine.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Forgetting the largest whale on the site is behind No?
0
Au-gust
9 months ago
You'll lose the dispute lol all the whales are behind yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
This is outside of Moscow municipality
0
Morpheus.pump
9 months ago
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1830073159619383724
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
MineGuyBonds
9 months ago
Trump would not be allowed a change on the ballot in Arizona and Pennsylvania if he wished to switch Vance out. The deadline has already passed.
0
0x23665967e7e763aE5844810c40a6A09C8725Fdc
9 months ago
https://www.politico.com/video/2024/08/29/vance-repeatedly-booed-at-union-event-in-boston-1419334
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Sadly this market still cannot be resolved according to the rules. Need an official confirmation that it is a boy.
3
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Disputes don't get looked at until after dispute #2
1
EmpirePending
10 months ago
Why has the dispute not been looked at? Is that not supposed to go to a team to review the reasons for dispute and vote accordingly? It was only disputed for about 3 minutes
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It's already been disputed twice. It's going to a vote now
1
babendums
10 months ago
how do i dispute this, this is BS, joyful is a compound word, bing copilot, Merrium Webster, Brainly all showing it is a compound word. I can't speak to previous markets and how they resolved, only this one and the proof from authorative sources.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Agreed. If that market resolves yes. UMA voting yes for this undoubtedly
0
de5nuts
10 months ago
you should dispute the speech rfk endorsement market first if you're gonna do it
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
For all intents and purposes I'm on your side but that argument doesn't make sense. You can Endorse a candidate and still ask voters to vote for you. This happens constantly in Ranked Choice voting elections and in the NY Mayor election recently
1
Robyratto1
10 months ago
He literally said that his supporters have to vote for him in safe states. This is not an endorsment
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Publicly stating that you are actively seeking the presidency and that has not changed is not very ambiguous
0
Wisdomtime
10 months ago
hmm - this might actually just go 50-50 given the conflicting rationales and huge volatility -- Polymarket likely needs to settle for 50-50 given the ambiguity in this situation
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
You realize you don't need 270? He specifically said he's going for a 269-269 lock and vote for presidency via the House
1
yourrapist1776
10 months ago
He said 5 times in the press release he suspended the campaign. He withdrew from swing states. He is not on enough state ballots now to reach 270. All credible reporting says he dropped out today. Delusional
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
@yourrapist1776 that does not matter. He said he is withdrawing from states in a key effort to create a 269-269 locked electoral college vote. A candidate does not need 270 to become president
0
taizong
10 months ago
This is the easiest arbitrage of all time. Look at the past markets for candidates dropping out. Every candidate in the republican primary "suspended" their campaign, all of those markets evaluated that to be the same as dropping out.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Please reply to the fact that he says he is still actively seeking to become the president (no matter how unlikely)
0
yourrapist1776
10 months ago
It's clear as day. He didn't want to diminish his efforts so he will still be on some ballots, but he ended his campaign today and endorsed another candidate
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
You are conflating primary markets with presidential election markets. Check my other comment to you. Kennedy still states he is actively seeking the presidency. After those primary candidates suspended. They said they were not still actively seeking nomination
0
taizong
10 months ago
Look at Nikki Haley's market (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-in-march?tid=1724446749448), or this Desantis market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-nikki-haley-or-ron-desantis-drop-out-first/will-nikki-haley-or-ron-desantis-drop-out-first?tid=1724446784087) in both cases, suspending campaign was evaluated as the same as dropping out.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
There is a key difference between primary nomination markets and this. Kennedy has also directly stated that he is still actively seeking the presidency.
0
taizong
10 months ago
This is the easiest arbitrage of all time. Look at the past markets for candidates dropping out. Every candidate in the republican primary "suspended" their campaign, all of those markets evaluated that to be the same as dropping out.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It would be dumb to submit anything until after 11:59PM EST. He could still withdraw due to extenuating circumstances. This is basically a 50/50 assassination market at this point. Only way to resolved yes
0
PoLOLitics
10 months ago
Those who are confident about the withdrawal being graded a yes should go ahead and submit this market for review.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Yea. There are a few important distinctions as well. He has stated he is still actively seeking the presidency. He had a quote saying "I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign." and he is still on the ballot in a majority of US states
0
Nicky-Boi
10 months ago
He withdrew, but only from some states. Lol.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
He hasn't withdrawn.
0
n/a
10 months ago
What is the deal here? He has dropped out but it says 39% chance only? Don’t get it
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Dropped out is not a withdraw. How are so many of you blind to this
0
yourrapist1776
10 months ago
All credible reporting says he dropped out, anyone who actually watched the full release would say he dropped out
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Suspend ≠ Withdraw and that statement is irrelevant. We specifically are looking for a withdraw. Which is materially VERY different than a suspension
0
Bitcoin1776
10 months ago
Time stamp 1:25:29 - "It is the reason I have made the heart wrenching decision to suspend my campaign, and to support President Trump."
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Yep. I'm staying out of this one
0
Donkov
10 months ago
Very much true, James. Will be a tough to battle it out with the resolution though.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
You can suspend all campaign staff, cease operations, stop airing ads. Effectively suspending your campaign or dropping out. But still not withdraw
0
BlackSky123
10 months ago
He dropped out. His statements at the speech are not relevant.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Read the rules. The word drop out is never said. We need to determine if he has withdrawn to propose a resolution. Withdrawn ≠ Dropout
1
BlackSky123
10 months ago
He dropped out. His statements at the speech are not relevant.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Anytime you see Kam and 50-Pence on the same side of a market that is going to a rules dispute. Trade with caution.
3
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
So you think you can drop out of the race and "withdraw" which is the verbiage used here. While still staying on the ballot in a majority of US states?
0
Slaylorswift
10 months ago
It’s gonna be yes. Everyone single political person has never said “ I am dropping out” it’s always I am Suspending my campaign
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/robert-f-kennedy-jr-drops-out-of-presidential-race-endorses-trump-f043e9b9?mod=mhp
1
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Now to me, you can't still be on the ballot in even 1 state. Let alone a majority. But have dropped out
0
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
He specifically said he is still going to be on the ballot in a majority of US states
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
He specifically said he is still going to be on the ballot in a majority of US states
0
betyonko
10 months ago
He dropped out essentially. He endorsed Trump
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Yea I'm confused why it's not 99.9 cents no
0
X9504
10 months ago
He literally said he is not withdrawing his candidacy
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
He just endorsed
0
Factual
10 months ago
He's not endorsing https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1827056809128915222?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1827056809128915222%7Ctwgr%5E252bbeb0f2768219a4dd0de22893f2a7cf4a8af7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpredictitt_i%3D7456t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.predictit.org2Fmarkets2Fdetail2F74562FWho-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-electiont_e%3DPredictIt207C20Who20will20win20the20202420US20presidential20election3Ft_d%3D202420Presidential20Election20Predictions202620Odds207C20Who20will20be20the20next20president3Ft_t%3DPredictIt207C20Who20will20win20the20202420US20presidential20election3Fs_o%3Ddefaultversion%3D4cca83b0da0691f931ef86061fb7db43
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
lol he just endorsed Trump
0
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
GG, Resolve Yes
0
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
You're just trolling at this point right?
3
CFTC
10 months ago
The Swap is close, Kamala isn't even at the DNC tonight while the Obamas speak. Check Elons Poll: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1826015426658415033
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It should be a legal requirement for all users who own YES to receive lifelong anti-psychotic treatment
4
FilthyAnimal
10 months ago
The convention isn’t over… this is just ceremonious roll calll… literally changes nothing from before it occurred. The convention ends on Thursday as the markets rules outline
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Thank you
1
CFTC
10 months ago
pack it up boyz this ones a loser.
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
No! Someone needs to fill my 99.4 cent buy order first.
1
CFTC
10 months ago
pack it up boyz this ones a loser.
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
They are definitely switching out Kamala on Day 4
0
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It actually didn't. My wives boyfriend had to come pick me up
6
CFTC
10 months ago
How are you recovering? Did your free vasectomy from the DNC go well?
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
Bomama needs to be studied
2
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It's okay if you don't understand basic math and statistics. Please give me more free money
2
CFTC
10 months ago
You gotta be a Psycopath to risk 5 figures to make pennies. The RIsk / Reward is so bad on NO.
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
No is a massively positive EV play. Especially now. Able to gain 1.3% on something with less than .1% chance of not occurring
1
CFTC
10 months ago
You gotta be a Psycopath to risk 5 figures to make pennies. The RIsk / Reward is so bad on NO.
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
It can be stuck for awhile. It's happened before. As long as days/weeks. As soon as hours.
0
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
No, it resolved as NO. Just stuck.
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
No, it resolved as NO. Just stuck.
0
mvp99
10 months ago
Did a sore loser dispute this?
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
How many tweets is he at? 12?
0
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
No he literally word for word said illegal immigrants lol. He did it twice
0
Lejer
10 months ago
he said migrants . he never said illegal
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
You're telling me all i need to do is fly to Africa and get monkey pox for an easy win
19
·
Liked by Pidor🐓, tsybka and 17 others
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
MineGuyBonds
10 months ago
ABC is the agreed upon platform https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/08/politics/trump-debate-harris-september
0
DeucePapi
10 months ago
What is the agreed upon venue/platform?
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
Where do you see this
0
Leonicron
11 months ago
EDMUNDO WINS! LEST GOOOOO
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
I hope you are right but I do not see it this way
0
BigHomie
11 months ago
This is probably the next best thing to them announcing Gonzalez won. It means we have more time to get something that will resolve this market to Gonzalez YES/ Maduro NO
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1817746944506134995?s=46&t=wIWvHQlOjhwtg73kF7eDow
0
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
Sad. Maduro staying in office by force. Didn't bet anything on this market but have been following closely
1
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
That link doesn't show any of the things you said lol
0
blackarepa1
11 months ago
Rumors say that there is a large advantage, millions of votes in favor of Edmundo and in 2-3 hours the acceptance of Maduro is expected, due to international pressure, links attached. https://x.com/CancilleriaARG/status/1817716533205844112
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
The entire election Maduro has painted Edmundo as the "candidate of sanctions" and then one of Maduro's trusted associates says "The Venezuelan people rose up to reject the sanctions". While not clear. One can infer.
1
BigHomie
11 months ago
It sounds like he hasn't made up his mind. It was a total nothingburger of a speech.
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
https://x.com/orlvndoa/status/1817723848940294152?s=46&t=wIWvHQlOjhwtg73kF7eDow
0
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
Minister of Defense seems to be claiming Maduro Won
1
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
MineGuyBonds
11 months ago
Everyone knew this is what was going to happen. This bet was not about who was going to rightfully get more votes. This is just a Yes/No will the election be rigged
2