#296
Rank
78
Comments
51
Likes Received
1340
Likes Given
Super Bowl Champion 2025
asdf4
1 year ago
Scam
0
LexomilSea
1 year ago
The leading polymarket's alternative SoraX [https://app-sorax.com] has twice more liquidity and odds are different, arbitrage seems crazy and possible on these markets, lot of clueless whales around..
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
asdf4
1 year ago
Are you trolling? Why are on the No side then?
0
itsok
1 year ago
its semi confirmed/leak. Seems like it’s super likely.
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?
asdf4
1 year ago
He bought yes too. He curretly holds a net 4 yes. Probably some strategy I don't understand.
0
smallbet6
1 year ago
Guys JustKam bought nos
Super Bowl Champion 2025
asdf4
1 year ago
😂
0
RB-79K_BALL
1 year ago
I identify as a bot
Super Bowl Champion 2025
asdf4
1 year ago
Do only bots trade here?
2
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
https://www.ft.com/content/cdb1ab92-9148-47c4-add1-a079a7652ddb
0
asdf4
1 year ago
Seems like a reasonable opinion. My argument for No is simply that there isn’t enough time in 2024. They have to make this antitrust safe. Microsoft is already under a close watch by the authorities. And should both Nvidia and Apple invest, alongside Microsoft, this is surely going to draw the wrath of regulators.
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
https://www.ft.com/content/ecfa69df-5d1c-4177-9b14-a3a73072db12
0
asdf4
1 year ago
Seems like a reasonable opinion. My argument for No is simply that there isn’t enough time in 2024. They have to make this antitrust safe. Microsoft is already under a close watch by the authorities. And should both Nvidia and Apple invest, alongside Microsoft, this is surely going to draw the wrath of regulators.
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
Seems like a reasonable opinion. My argument for No is simply that there isn’t enough time in 2024. They have to make this antitrust safe. Microsoft is already under a close watch by the authorities. And should both Nvidia and Apple invest, alongside Microsoft, this is surely going to draw the wrath of regulators.
0
itsok
1 year ago
OPENAI deal would lead to an extreme increase in Apple's market cap; They have every incentive to invest. (Apple has $61.8 billion in cash/short-term investments.) If Apple doesn't invest, it will be at a strategic disadvantage to NVDA, Microsoft ETC., and have no skin in the game. Apple has invested close to 100B!!! On AI/R&D with no AI product in sight, name me one Apple AI product, I'll wait... Any successful AI/chatbot/Smart assistant integration would require ChatGPT. (all thoughts and opinions are my own and not advice.) Good read: https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-aims-tell-an-ai-story-without-ai-bills-2024-05-03
Will Kamala Harris give an interview by Aug 31?
asdf4
1 year ago
or schedule it 2 hours earlier ...
1
0x64D754C44852208575F9500ED1E4F10e6AD1512A-1722659354305
1 year ago
Wow unbelievable couldn't wait 3 more days?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
yeah, these long shots only work if you have the whales on your side, see Venezuela market
2
Justifax
1 year ago
Your biggest holder, hillary2win, doesnt even know what UMA is. It's a bullshit facade for a couple of whales deciding all the outcomes. It's not decentralized at all.
Hunter Biden prison time in gun sentence?
asdf4
1 year ago
Read again, it's pretty clear what they mean.
7
BEEEEEF
1 year ago
"If no sentence is rendered in this case by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes"." What does this even mean? AI-generated rules are ridiculous.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Oh wow, that seals the deal
0
JanSobieski3
1 year ago
“However, he made clear that he wasn’t formally ending his bid and said his supporters could continue to back him in the majority of states where they are unlikely to sway the outcome. Kennedy took steps to withdraw his candidacy in at least two states late this week, Arizona and Pennsylvania, but in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, election officials said it’s too late for him to take his name off the ballot even if he wants to do so.” AP news
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
doesn't get clearer then them endorsing him and then specifiying that the formal endorsement wasn't done by RFK Jr. and was indeed an error
1
asdf4
1 year ago
They said this, because they clearly do not want to endorse him *formally*: “Shortly before his speech in Phoenix, his campaign had said in a Pennsylvania court filing Friday that he would be endorsing Trump for president. However, a spokesperson for Kennedy said the court filing had been made in error and the lawyer who wrote it said he’d correct it.” AP news
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
jup, just wanted to add the source
0
aenews2
1 year ago
@asdf4 Yep, I agree. That's what I was saying.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
They said this, because they clearly do not want to endorse him *formally*: “Shortly before his speech in Phoenix, his campaign had said in a Pennsylvania court filing Friday that he would be endorsing Trump for president. However, a spokesperson for Kennedy said the court filing had been made in error and the lawyer who wrote it said he’d correct it.” AP news
6
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
the campaign specifically clearified that the legal filing "endorsement" wasn't true: https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45 second half
4
aenews2
1 year ago
None exists. In fact, his team actually retracted a legal filing today that would have indicated endorsement.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
well, someone doesn't know how to read the rules
4
Pidor🐓
1 year ago
desperate poors trying to manipualte after losing their tiny net worths. hilarious. reuters decided this for you guys https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly, just like with the bernie sanders market, there press reporting didn't suffice either!
5
5to5000
1 year ago
this ruleset specifically doesnt mention consensus of reporting
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
again, he did not endorse him formally. Informally, sure?
5
Pidor🐓
1 year ago
reuters made determinations based on what RFK said fyi incase you have trouble understanding this https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
again, informally
2
Pidor🐓
1 year ago
thx 4 donate, hahahhahahah https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/
Will RFK drop out before November?
asdf4
1 year ago
now I get your name, haha
0
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
vibes greater than rules
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
wow! did that one get disputed successfully? If I remember correctly, he said verbatim that he does not drop out, just suspend his campaign in key battleground states
1
EmpirePending
1 year ago
Polymarket fucked up bad today. They also resolved “will RFK drop out by Friday” market to yes even though he clearly hasn’t dropped out.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
perfect, thank you so much!
5
hillary2win
1 year ago
waiting about 40 more minutes to send it to human review in the final dispute
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
so this didn't even get reviewed by humans yet?!?!?
6
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
informally, sure
3
0x5560dfaxxab302BF6XXF24c0DE467351
1 year ago
Via NBC News - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed former President Donald Trump Friday afternoon during a lengthy speech putting to rest his tumultuous independent presidential campaign.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly my argument!
2
EmpirePending
1 year ago
They proposed yes for all 3 endorsement markets but the rules for this one is different. This one specifically states “formal” whereas the others don’t. This one also states that the resolution comes from the speech, whereas the others considered news reports as well.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
why would they feel the need to address the wrong endorsement, just for him to turn around hours later and endorse him anyway?
2
asdf4
1 year ago
Source regarding the legal filing/ endorsement clarification from his campaign, earlier today: https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45 second half of the article
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Source regarding the legal filing/ endorsement clarification from his campaign, earlier today: https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45 second half of the article
1
asdf4
1 year ago
I don’t have discord so I’ll just write it here: I knew that RFK Jr. was always in this campaign to help Donald Trump win and support him, but I knew he would always stop short of formally endorising him. What he did today is pretty much the textbook definition of an *informal* endorsement, NOT a FORMAL ENDORSEMENT like the rules require.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
And lastly, there is no need to close this market early as his campaign can, and likely will issue a statement, like they did regarding the legal filing earlier today
3
asdf4
1 year ago
Additionally, every major newspaper wrote that Bernie Sanders endorsed Kamala Harris and that market resolved to No, with essentially the same rules. Since this case is even clearer, for the sake of consistency, it has to resolve No to. I can understand though, why the one regarding his speech resolved yes, as that had the “support” part in it, which this resolution definition is missing.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Additionally, every major newspaper wrote that Bernie Sanders endorsed Kamala Harris and that market resolved to No, with essentially the same rules. Since this case is even clearer, for the sake of consistency, it has to resolve No to. I can understand though, why the one regarding his speech resolved yes, as that had the “support” part in it, which this resolution definition is missing.
5
asdf4
1 year ago
I don’t have discord so I’ll just write it here: I knew that RFK Jr. was always in this campaign to help Donald Trump win and support him, but I knew he would always stop short of formally endorising him. What he did today is pretty much the textbook definition of an *informal* endorsement, NOT a FORMAL ENDORSEMENT like the rules require.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
I don’t have discord so I’ll just write it here: I knew that RFK Jr. was always in this campaign to help Donald Trump win and support him, but I knew he would always stop short of formally endorising him. What he did today is pretty much the textbook definition of an *informal* endorsement, NOT a FORMAL ENDORSEMENT like the rules require.
5
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
like I said, what he did was pretty much the definition of an *informal* endorsement
1
PeterNh
1 year ago
I agree if this market was about an endorsement and not formal endorsement. We will likely have clarity on this within a couple of days, but market will be resolved by then. To dispute my $300, I would have to put up $750. I do not see how that makes sense and clearly from the comment, the people running this market do not care about the specifics.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
yeah, so this pretty much the definition of an *informal* endorsement
2
Bank.
1 year ago
He is going to remain on the ballot in most states. The states where he could ruin the battle he will remove his name and urge not to vote for him... Shouldn't he at this stage say vote for Trump if he actually endorsed him?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
that definition didn't suffice for the bernie endorsement market either
3
ppsp
1 year ago
Endorsement definition : "the act of saying that you approve of or support something or someone". You don't need to specifically use the word 'endorse' to endorse someone.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
i've heard someone say all of it, but not sure if that's true
1
Au-gust
1 year ago
How much of the bond can you lose in dispute if it doesn't go your way?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly, like i said on the other market: we all knew that he was always in it for Trump, but the argument for no was always that he would just stop short of formally endorsing him; which he did not do, smh
2
FyouMoneyOTW
1 year ago
We knew he was gonna support trump, but we thought that he’d probably endorse him probably being the special guest at his rally, so we voted NO, shammmmm
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
i think only the final dispute will be two days; and why is the disburte window so short anyway, what if you are asleep or at work; why not make it 24
0
0xB28d604F9434467c12DACEF78f10fB876745cf67-1724442052721
1 year ago
Click show more, then there is a button that says dispute, we only have 2 hrs. But a dispute will keep another 2 days I believe for vote
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
what if you are asleep or at work, why are these dispute windows only two hours and not at least 24
0
FyouMoneyOTW
1 year ago
@semi
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly, we all knew that he was always in it for Trump, but the argument for no was always that he would just stop short of formally endorsing him; which he did not do, smh
3
PeterNh
1 year ago
The text saying that this will resolve says "...throwing his support to President Trump and joining the Trump campaign suffices as an endorsement, ". Fine, but this market is not about an endorsement, it is about a formal endorsement or I would not have purchased "no".
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
well, then they reuters,etc. should have done a better job with bernies endorsement, too
0
Justifax
1 year ago
you guys should go tell AP/Reuters/WSJ how to do their jobs since you know better.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly, lol, why would they feel the need to clarify and then turn around and endorse hours later
2
PeterNh
1 year ago
When his campaign says that the court filing does not represent them and they dispute this, how can it resolve that there was a "formal endorsement". The language here is clear.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
I can understand why this will resolve to yes, however, given the result of the bernie market, the rules will from now on become entirely a guessing game on how they will be interpreted by uma
4
What will Trump say during Arizona speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
oil. he says it quite frequently, actuall.
1
yeezuschrist0
1 year ago
Why would he say drill baby drill?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
exactly, write and decide
3
Morifan
1 year ago
They need actual lawyers to make these markets not discord moderators. Literally if they keep making these stupid unclear markets someone might sue them for it if they piss off a really rich guy.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
thanks, I guess I need to read up on that stuff
0
PoLOLitics
1 year ago
@asdf4 theoretically yes you could do that, however you would then wipe out the value of your UMA, so not really worth it.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
how do you become a coin holder, could you just be a whale and then decide in your own favour?
4
Bank.
1 year ago
A bunch of coin holders go to fake news cnn.com and read their skewed headlines.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
yeah, and there seem to be more and more of those markets; polymarket legit has to hire lawyers to writer better rules in general
5
Bank.
1 year ago
Coping? Just trying to keep Polymarket legit. No one is going to enjoy being here when the results are wrong and frauded.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
i'm endorsing him, but please still vote for me
3
Kinkenos
1 year ago
there is no way you can endorse someone while still being in the race and asking people to vote for you
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
They were misinformed by the court filing that got a clarification by his spokesperson later on, i belief
2
thakattack19
1 year ago
literally Axios and AP said he endorsed before the event. and then he said support. so this is a YES resolve
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
yeah, me neither, this seems so arbitrary. Seems like you can only bet on stuff that is clear cut, i guess
2
n/a
1 year ago
Was the Bernie market outcome yes and then disputed to no? I dont see how this is different from the bernie outcome.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
yes
1
Au-gust
1 year ago
I guess because yeses are trading higher that the proposition is for the Yes?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
This from NBC: RFK Jr. suspends his campaign, encourages supporters to still vote for him
0
Scrounge
1 year ago
From CNN, "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Friday he has suspended his independent presidential campaign and will “now throw my support to President Trump.” Kennedy said he will withdraw from the ballot in 10 battleground states."
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
didn't count for the bernie sanders market, even though media outlets reported that he did endorse harris
0
Scrounge
1 year ago
From CNN, "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Friday he has suspended his independent presidential campaign and will “now throw my support to President Trump.” Kennedy said he will withdraw from the ballot in 10 battleground states."
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
trump ....
0
MOA
1 year ago
Trump just thanked him for the endorsement in his Nevada speech: https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/1827064702511591817
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
well that didn't count in the bernie sanders market
2
Dooby
1 year ago
“I have made a decision to suspend my campaign and support Donald trump”. Verbatim that’s as close as it got in the speech
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
read the rules, it says FORMALLY ENDORSES; this is not a formal endorsement, lol
3
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
his campaign said this earlier though:https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
1
thakattack19
1 year ago
all of the big names in MSM are saying he endorsed Trump
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
yeah
0
KFB1
1 year ago
If he gives a direct endorsement today with Trump, this should definitely resolve "yes," yes?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
why would his campaign say this then though: https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
3
0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160
1 year ago
This is so stupid. Of course he endorsed him
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
. https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
0
Munners
1 year ago
"however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." many saying no endorsement
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
1
snipereagle8
1 year ago
Source?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
he said himself he isn`t droping out
1
Borgo
1 year ago
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/robert-f-kennedy-jr-drops-out-of-presidential-race-endorses-trump-f043e9b9
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Yeah I don't think so either, but that's what he said, essentially: https://x.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1826721756419424742?s=46
0
scattering
1 year ago
to all those who believe in his wife him ever divorcing him: never gonna happen... her husband is far WORSE than just endorsing trump, lmfao.
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
asdf4
1 year ago
There's speculation he might get a job at the cdc or fda under trump
0
CCTrader
1 year ago
What’s the argument for FDA?
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2bffbf437dbdcb8655604ced804d0c16057464ad?tab=activity
0
asdf4
1 year ago
Very odd, but look at this huy, all he did was buy and sell immediately?!
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Very odd, but look at this huy, all he did was buy and sell immediately?!
0
WALTUH.YTE
1 year ago
https://imgur.com/a/1u95ufK lmao
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
https://x.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1826721756419424742?s=46
0
asdf4
1 year ago
Wow, so he is really risking a divorce for an endorsement, huh?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
asdf4
1 year ago
Wow, so he is really risking a divorce for an endorsement, huh?
1
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
It's overused, if she sais it, then not in the way people expect
0
thakattack19
1 year ago
So we still think she won’t say weird? Lol
What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
he's pretty good on facts though, when he's on fox news
1
homosexual
1 year ago
I should have remembered that this guy is the single best person at platitudes in politics. My bad
What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
who could have guessed he would say fox news though, off all the words
1
homosexual
1 year ago
seriously?
What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
christ
0
homosexual
1 year ago
seriously?
What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?
asdf4
1 year ago
Some rando from Fox News, I think
0
MasterMindful
1 year ago
Who tf is that
# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?
asdf4
1 year ago
no, but this guy probably said it 10 times already 😂
1
BabaVanga
1 year ago
Does some kind sould have a count they'd like to share. I'll start counting now
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
source, btw: https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-pot-dea-legalization-biden-cb7869d3286094f0124de728320d89c1
1
n/a
1 year ago
you essentially betting that the elections will push this through fast enough?
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
I think it will happen, but the question is if they will do it this year; but keep in minde, the DEA can reschedule whenever they want
2
n/a
1 year ago
you essentially betting that the elections will push this through fast enough?
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
But seems like the DEA isn't too fond of it: Former DEA Administrator Tim Shea said the striking absence of Milgram’s sign-off suggests she was backing “the DEA professionals.” “If she had supported it she would have signed it and sent it in,” said Shea, who served in the Trump administration.
2
n/a
1 year ago
you essentially betting that the elections will push this through fast enough?
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
asdf4
1 year ago
It seems like that was the plan: "Several current and former DEA officials told the AP they believe politics may be at play, contending the Justice Department is moving forward with the marijuana reclassification because President Joe Biden wants to use the issue to woo voters in his re-election campaign and wasn’t willing to give the DEA time for more studies that likely would have dragged beyond Election Day. It’s crystal clear to me that the Justice Department hijacked the rescheduling process, placing politics above public safety,” said Derek Maltz, a retired agent who once headed the DEA’s Special Operations Division"
2
n/a
1 year ago
you essentially betting that the elections will push this through fast enough?