#59
Rank
119
Comments
88
Likes Received
127
Likes Given
n/a
1 week ago
There is no clear winner in this debate
1 week ago
4 polls so far. Yougov show 42-41 to Vance, they're unbias (+0.2% lean towards Trump in Nate Silver house effects). CNN had 51-49 Vance, they tend to be +0.8% Trump (NS h.e. Yes their news is bias, their polls are not, just like Fox News’ polls). Focaldata had 50-50, they are unbias (+0.2% Harris NS h.e.). JL have 50-43 Vance, they're Trump simpers (+2.5% Trump NS h.e, MASSIVE bias). So...Ipsos? +1.7% Harris NS h.e., MASSIVE bias. In other words. 3 unbias pollsters show a tie; 1 Trump simp shows Vance winning; and we're waiting for the results from a Harris simp ;) . Nb ITT a ton of ppl saying “I think Vance won, so I’ll bet on him”. You’re betting on the results of a left leaning pollster’s poll after seeing three tied polls; not “who everyone knows won, c’mon, he totally won”. I don’t mean to make you better bettors, but pls, do better. We’ve already had one unbiased pollster (focaldata) for Politico lose you money if it were Ipsos (money would have been split 50-50)
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1 week ago
Shouldve picked Shapiro
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1 month ago
fake news
LMNOP
1 month ago
UMA votes are all already in and it's 99.5% voting Yes. https://vote.uma.xyz/
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1 month ago
uma whale told me they voted no
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1 month ago
sheesher
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1 month ago
voting republican here is some pussy shit. no money to be made
1 month ago
Since the beginning of August the polls are creeping tighter ; +8 to +5 (to +2), to +4 today. Florida is polling within a point of 2020 results (+3.6 Trump), as a lot of states are, ie polling doesn't seem unreasonable....and the odds are barely moving. 15% before any recent polls, 18% now...feels like a frog getting boiled, doesn't realize what's going on until it's cooked, odds won't react unless a poll shows the race is tied. Well, we're entering the margin of error territory so watch out!
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1 month ago
rfk just dropped out
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1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O-ZM0RxG4g&t=3259s What RFK himself says here and what he has said repeatedly contradicts this resloution - pathetic show of corruption and whale pandering by polymarket & UMA
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1 month ago
Nobody cares about what RFK himself says, it's all about the dipshit whales here and UMA whales.
AG1234
1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O-ZM0RxG4g&t=3259s RFK again reiterates: "I am still running for president" and "I have not terminated my campaign". He objectively did not "officially withdraw" as per the rules. This is not new information either. PM manipulated the market, and told people how to vote for resolution. This was a scam.
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1 month ago
$1,438,529 buy to make like 800 bucks, hilarious
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1 month ago
this market will be swept under the rug and things will continue as normal, just remember what happened here lol
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1 month ago
rfk jr himself on tucker carlson one hour ago : "you know, I'm technically still running for president. I'm running for president in 30 states, 40 states. So, I'm not you know, I did not, I did not terminate my campaign. Did you know that? " at this point it's just blatantly clear that the market should've resolved to "no" days ago, but polymarket decided to step in and add additional context and change the outcome of a 7.6 million market which was 1.8 million on Friday. It is what it is, welcome to crypto
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1 month ago
dumb argument just like every other YES argument
BlueSky123
1 month ago
Secret Service: Kennedy dropped out so we are ending protection on that basis. No holders: liars
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1 month ago
Completely stupid, I watched as this market rigged itself for a YES vote, and watched UMA discord staff load up on YES shares prior to & during the vote
AG1234
1 month ago
RFK's speech concluded at 2:48, and the Yes market collapsed from 97c to 18c because the census was that he did not drop out. Polymarket issued a context to flip the market to save their whales, inflating the price from 29c to over 99c, exploding the Yes market by 400%, saving their precious whales. If you think this is fraud, you can report to: https://ig.ny.gov/form/gaming-ig-complaint-form which is the state PM resides.
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1 month ago
never forget if we asked RFK himself how these markets should resolve he would tell us the opposite of how they actually are resolving... because he told us himself in his address
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1 month ago
booooooo
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1 month ago
Was 2k before the scam lmfao
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1 month ago
Only came on here for this market and has $34 portfolio value + $0 balance btw
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1 month ago
Never selling, going down in flames knowing I am right and never using this platform
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1 month ago
Before this bet is closed, just wanted to advise that Kennedy's own campaign staff & volunteers are stating the media is lying and the campaign is still active. RFK himself said he is not ending his campaign. The "YES" resolution is a scam and several UMA staff were loading up YES shares today prior to the outcome. Pretty pathetic display by Polymarket and no point in using it going forward.
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1 month ago
I'm a democrat and I know this shit is corrupt
PolyMucket
1 month ago
Polymarket are democrats thats a fact
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1 month ago
rigged trash
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1 month ago
Trash platform isn't willing to admit when they're wrong, now I know
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1 month ago
Fuck you polymarket... opinion over facts
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1 month ago
aye aye captain
hillary2win
1 month ago
All NO holders, please do NOT dispose of your shares in this market if you want to participate in lawsuits against UMA, UMA voters and Polymarket. You will need to keep the shares and records of the trades.
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1 month ago
"I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and not ending it." Do they understand english?
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1 month ago
This is fucked up! Openly voting for corruption
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Bad guys winning (for now)
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1 month ago
RFK didn't drop out and Epstein didn't kill himself
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1 month ago
WTF
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1 month ago
RFK is my dad and he told me he isn't dropping out and fuck all YES holders
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1 month ago
This is the funniest dispute of all time
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1 month ago
I want everyone to know that I am only suspending my campaign, not terminating it. My name will still be on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states — the same applies. I encourage you to do so. And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates win 270 electoral votes, I could still end up in the White House in a contingent election. https://robertfkennedyjr.substack.com/p/why-i-am-suspending-my-campaign-for
Chrissistar04
1 month ago
During his public address today, RFK Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind President Trump. He stated that he is “joining the Trump campaign”, and that he “no longer believe[s] that [he has] a realistic path to electoral victory… ” Furthermore, a consensus of credible reporting states that he ended his presidential bid. Therefore, this market should resolve to “Yes.”
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1 month ago
Oh look, another YES holder completely ignorning RFK's own words
Chrissistar04
1 month ago
During his public address today, RFK Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind President Trump. He stated that he is “joining the Trump campaign”, and that he “no longer believe[s] that [he has] a realistic path to electoral victory… ” Furthermore, a consensus of credible reporting states that he ended his presidential bid. Therefore, this market should resolve to “Yes.”
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1 month ago
Take a look for yourself on RFK's own campaign website: https://www.kennedy24.com/events There are still events actively being scheduled for his campaign ALL THE WAY OUT TO NOV 5.
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1 month ago
YES holders are so eager to completely ignore RFK's words and instead point to past candidates withdrawals, of which RFK's speech was very different from. This is an entirely different strategy that RFK has employed NOT a withdrawal.
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1 month ago
"I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and not ending it. My name will remain on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states, the same will apply. I encourage you to vote for me. And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major party candidates win 270 votes, which is quite possible, in fact, today our polling shows them tying at 269, I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingent election. But in about ten battleground states, where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name, and I’ve already started that process and urge voters not to vote for me."
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1 month ago
This appears to be a specfic person's voting statistics unrelated to this proposal
FyouMoneyOTW
1 month ago
69.9% vote no🤩🤩 https://dune.com/queries/2316143/5273058
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1 month ago
Specifically the #evidence-rationale channel
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1 month ago
Join UMA's discord to make a case for your side at https://discord.com/invite/uma.
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1 month ago
Join UMA's discord to make a case for your side at https://discord.com/invite/uma.
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1 month ago
RFK's actions basically turn his 0.02% chance into a 0.01% chance and poly wants to call it a withdrawal
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1 month ago
https://x.com/NicoleShanahan/status/1827020725309653431
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1 month ago
chill
baal
1 month ago
@polymarket @UMA try blindly ripping off people for hundreds of thousands of dollars IRL and watch how fast you end up in a wheelchair. This is a predictions gambling market with RULES
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1 month ago
They tend to point to how other candidates have withdrawn in the past but this is clearly something different
baal
1 month ago
Would love to hear a single constructive argument from the other side against this
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1 month ago
"I want everyone to know that am not terminating my campaign. am simply suspending it and not ending it. My name will remain on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states, the same will apply. encourage you to vote for me. And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major party candidates win 27O votes, which is quite possible, in fact, today our polling shows them tying at 269, could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contention election."
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1 month ago
Check out NC's sample ballot https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1827414491778166842?t=egtj5Q7UdB7J3jRmSMrFdw&s=19 Speaks for itself
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1 month ago
If nothing was obvious, the market shouldn't be resolved
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1 month ago
Please replay the speech. Nothing was obvious.
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1 month ago
Why was the price 18c for Yes during his address? Because his own words made it obvious what was happening, the only reason we're here is because people are scared of a corrupt & incorrect ruling in this dispute
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1 month ago
His chance was already basically 0% in the first place... his removal from battleground states changes nothing about this
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1 month ago
Think of it this way. RFK is still on the ballot in 40 states. Therefore technically he has a CHANCE (albeit an extremely small one) to win the election He is still "in the race." Not sure why seemingly everyone here is acting like he dropped out completely
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1 month ago
This platform needs to admit they were wrong, RFK's address is non conventenial and the attempt to use precedent of previous campaign withdrawals is disingenuous. He did something totally different, refusing to use the word "endorse" and only removing his name from a few state ballots.
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1 month ago
I also want you to know that am only suspending my campaign, not terminating it. My name will still be on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states- the same applies. encourage you to do so. And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates win 270 electoral votes, I could still end up in the White House in a contingent election.
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1 month ago
Good point for sure
boredagain
1 month ago
why isn't RFK resolved to "no" over on the 2024 Presidential Election betting page.
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1 month ago
Yes defenders are just actually rooting for a broken system.. sad
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1 month ago
This is not a typical situation & RFK is an oddball. If we are using precedent for this then please find me another example of a politician removing themselves from only a few states, saying to still vote for them, and repeatedly emphasize they are not ending their campaign
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1 month ago
You don’t know how politics works
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1 month ago
Yes holders are banking on ignoring the words of RFK himself both from his speech & campaign follow up email. You have to admit the Yes holders are reaching
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1 month ago
if it were that simple then he wouldn't be so adamant in repeating the line that he is *not* ending his campaign
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1 month ago
suspending campaign=dropping out, doesn't matter that he says it's not "ended." That's what the word SUSPENDED means
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1 month ago
Those were not disputed so it's fair game for them to resolve incorrectly.
bluejay
1 month ago
another example: https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-before-september
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1 month ago
Campaign email came out with the explicit wording that he is not dropping out because he isnt.
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1 month ago
I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and not ending it. My name will remain on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states, the same will apply. I encourage you to vote for me.
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1 month ago
P2 Yes - RFK Jr. dropped out Friday. Polymarket - Therefore, this market should resolve to “Yes.” 30 to 1 odds if no’s are victorious ; the dispute is merely a scheme by no campaigners. https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1827043827779297420 57:30 - Kennedy Jr “I promised the American people I would withdraw from the race if I became a spoiler. A spoiler is someone who can affect the outcome, but has no chance of winning. In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory. In good conscience, I can no longer ask my volunteers to give their long hours, or voters to keep giving (their dollars).” 59:37 - Kennedy Jr “In the 10 battle ground states, where my presence would be a spoiler, I am going to remove my name; I have already started that process, and urge voters not to vote for me.” 1:29:00 - Kennedy Jr “That is the spirit with which I ran my campaign, and intend to bring to the campaign of President Trump.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR3fuaKrEwU 11:40 Kennedy Jr : “And don’t you want a President who is going to protect America’s freedoms, and who is going to protect us against totalitarianism.” POINTS TO TRUMP - THEY HUG. “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his withdrawal…” Friday he announced his withdrawal from 10 states, the only states in which he could have a meaningful impact.
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1 month ago
bets on polymarket about polymarket shouldnt exist imo. too many conspiracies are born lol
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1 month ago
Opinions aside this is not a typical "withdrawal", RFK did something very strategic in his address as he seems to be attempting to join Trump's administration if elected WITHOUT endorsing or dropping out of the race.
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1 month ago
the guy that lies every other word
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1 month ago
On trumps Instagram he says rfk endorsed him
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1 month ago
He's not out and he said it himself.
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1 month ago
Close it as a yes ffs. The semantics won’t save you from what happened. He’s out and he said it himself. How many contenders promote another contender? lol…. But but but he’s still on a list. Get out of here
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1 month ago
rfk SPEFICALLY MENTIONED he was not terminating his campaign. Just like how he specifically avoided using the wording to endorse Trump. RFK is playing games to get into govt and polymarket should not entertain.
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1 month ago
polymarket must accept their rules were not specfic enough for the worm brain of RFK
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1 month ago
Keep the disputes coming, he literally made it a point to specify he IS NOT DROPPING.
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1 month ago
only on polymarket can a candidate explicitly say they are not ending their run and the market will resolve as if they did
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1 month ago
fuck this scam
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1 month ago
this shit is a legit scam. only here could the candidate explicitly say they are not ending their campaign & still resolving to yes they ended their campaign
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1 month ago
the integrity of poly is in shambles from the rfk speech imo
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1 month ago
gg
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1 month ago
wtf? he is not dropping out
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1 month ago
RFK is doing some campaign events with him and possibly a position in his administration. No endorsement
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1 month ago
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
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1 month ago
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated.
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1 month ago
NO ENDORSEMENT
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1 month ago
this guy is a nutjob no wonder he's endorsing the moldy cheeto
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1 month ago
fucc
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1 month ago
https://www.kennedy24.com/
Slaylorswift
1 month ago
Link?
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1 month ago
Delayed to 2:30PM EST
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1 month ago
I will never forget the tragic story of the beyonce DNC rugpull
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1 month ago
now we have bets about polymarket on polymarket
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1 month ago
how do we know she didn't attend
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1 month ago
gg wp
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1 month ago
tmz lied... beyonce bros died
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1 month ago
tmz lied beyonce bros died
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1 month ago
thanks for the cope
Gang
1 month ago
https://x.com/AlphonsusOlieh/status/1826791798515401197
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1 month ago
FUCK YOU TAYLOR
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1 month ago
wife is leaving me if taylor doesnt show
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1 month ago
its over swiftbros
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1 month ago
need my bags to print
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1 month ago
why do you say so?
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1 month ago
taylor swift is coming to town
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1 month ago
these sold for over 50c an hour ago hahahaha
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1 month ago
why is there McDonald's
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1 month ago
HUH
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1 month ago
dollars on sale for 10c
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1 month ago
not true. I'll be feeding my family with a snickers bar
fggtlvr69
1 month ago
with 3 shares you'll be 'feasting' on a grain rice
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1 month ago
No bros feasting soon
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1 month ago
What is the cause of a shift this large
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1 month ago
gambling is fun
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1 month ago
I don't get Dem yes. You see the polling averages here, with zero polls favorable for Dems, and you still think Harris is going to win Florida? It isn't 2008 anymore. Even the Democratic Party itself has given up on Florida because they don't see it as competitive. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
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1 month ago
rip
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1 month ago
FL bet crossed $1m lets go
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1 month ago
Trump overpriced
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1 month ago
harris mega discount
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1 month ago
Tampon bros are going to lose this one
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1 month ago
GA harris on sale
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1 month ago
a true gambler would buy democrat
Loaf
1 month ago
This is the easiest money ever. Thank God for dumb liberals.
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1 month ago
wow
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1 month ago
TAMPON BROS WIN AGAIN
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1 month ago
Tampon bros pushing their luck
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1 month ago
Nevada's polling has been fucking weird this election
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1 month ago
It's correcting now... 10:1 odds was insane we are shifting to probably 4:1 or 3:1 pre election
1 month ago
Wow, latest poll showing Trump only +3 with RV, +2 with LV from a reputable pollster and with the lowest MoE, and this market just blanks, literally does not move a percent. Is this one of those Diamond hands markets? Nb yesterdays +5 Trump also a reputable pollster with low house effect, the other one, not so much...I would be long Dems winning Florida, but I'm already doing it via margin of victory in electoral college
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1 month ago
Still undervalued tbh, Desantis is hated by anyone with a brain for fighting against woke BS instead of anything meaningful for the housing crisis, weed + abortion will bring out more independent & dem voters
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1 month ago
That was the last chance for Tesla
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1 month ago
Is Trump not allowed to say Tesla
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1 month ago
Just blueballed the Tesla bros
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1 month ago
Elon's voice is shaking
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1 month ago
Why does this keep going up? Is this free money?
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2 months ago
Kamala won't do FOX, Trump could use this an excuse to not do the ABC & NBC ones
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2 months ago
kamala yolo