#63
Rank
432
Comments
219
Likes Received
1567
Likes Given
Remontada
3 months ago
Thanks GrubKing
TrumpDaddy88
3 months ago
RFK is free money, Tulsi is good value, I would say 95% confirmation.
Remontada
3 months ago
Eric Coin. Barron Coin. Take your pick
Remontada
3 months ago
You missed the live aswell
balloooooo
3 months ago
https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1881199243505054106
Remontada
4 months ago
How can we trust a scammer?
Car
4 months ago
Derivatives Ape has also told us he is not in jail: https://x.com/derivatives_ape/status/1860993581982331271?s=46&t=Colxjm4-Co9jTiM0tdXATA
Remontada
4 months ago
"Unless"
Justifax
4 months ago
Unless he's joking, he admits directly he was in jail - https://x.com/Derivatives_Ape/status/1865051174770024808 I’ve already spent months in jail. Came back to Twitter just to get called mean words every day??
Remontada
4 months ago
Fill me
Ericp
4 months ago
Alright boys, get ready for no release. Yes Holders gonna regret this.
Remontada
5 months ago
About buying ETH dumbass.
its.just.fire
5 months ago
I sold some earlier today to buy eth dip on leverage before us rate cut tmr and im now buying back at 40 cents because cia director is flying to qatar as we speak,it is my understanding that hamas wants in person confirmation from cia that trump will respect the ceasefire theyre about to sign.
Remontada
5 months ago
God you're dumb. It takes people two seconds to prove this is a lie
its.just.fire
5 months ago
I sold some earlier today to buy eth dip on leverage before us rate cut tmr and im now buying back at 40 cents because cia director is flying to qatar as we speak,it is my understanding that hamas wants in person confirmation from cia that trump will respect the ceasefire theyre about to sign.
Remontada
5 months ago
Glory to God
Remontada
5 months ago
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1868016630569304330
Remontada
6 months ago
Who is Khamenei
Remontada
6 months ago
Yes, Barak Ravid makes a living scamming Poly war markets.
OtoyaYamaguchi
6 months ago
This whole things is bull shit... axios can publish anything and conclude anything on polymarket if it gets resolve to yes
Remontada
6 months ago
"Only"
NahB
6 months ago
My prediction of what's going on: @WindWalk2 and his (or his group's) Alt accounts have some bots to trade continuously at current prices. As soon as the limit order book is filled up sufficiently (a lot of YES bids), he'll dump enough (prob ~Saturday as per his "incredible extra information drop") to make a good profit. Then we'll never hear from him again. When math ain't math-ing, something is up!
Remontada
6 months ago
He has no exit liquidity Mr Big Brain
NahB
6 months ago
My prediction of what's going on: @WindWalk2 and his (or his group's) Alt accounts have some bots to trade continuously at current prices. As soon as the limit order book is filled up sufficiently (a lot of YES bids), he'll dump enough (prob ~Saturday as per his "incredible extra information drop") to make a good profit. Then we'll never hear from him again. When math ain't math-ing, something is up!
Remontada
6 months ago
Long the dip my friend.
Car
6 months ago
I told you guys so many would be trapped in longs above 90k
Remontada
6 months ago
No DT endorsement folks
Remontada
6 months ago
No, those are official titles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senior_Advisor_to_the_President_of_the_United_States
Pete283
6 months ago
"Provide advice and guidance": Would that not fall into the category of "senior policy advisors", which is mentioned in the rules?
Remontada
6 months ago
Headline is wrong
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
The richest guy in the world is not going to become a government employee? That is really shocking
Remontada
6 months ago
On USDC it touched 90k, market resolves to USDT
jamesclove
6 months ago
literally touched 90k
Remontada
6 months ago
Wasn't familiar with the bots game
Remontada
6 months ago
The guy spamming 5 share bids is so annoying
Remontada
6 months ago
The guy spamming 5 share bids is so annoying
Remontada
6 months ago
It's roaring
Remontada
6 months ago
Lol
itsok
6 months ago
NOT gonna happen! reject 90k 3x times! you are out of your mind buying YES.
Remontada
6 months ago
Bigly
Kickstand7
6 months ago
elon musk, charlie kirk, rfk, and vivek. people who have sway and influence over the 53 GOP senators that will be saddled with scott for 2~10 years if he wins this post
Remontada
6 months ago
Book is quite thick up to 90. We might be slowing down abit
Remontada
6 months ago
Bang
Remontada
6 months ago
Who is the degen putting up orders on No for 87.5k?
Remontada
6 months ago
Lemme load 13million on Binance, brb
Remontada
6 months ago
Just watched an interview with Rick Scott on Fox. Man, the guy is so awkward.
Remontada
6 months ago
Bitcoin heading to 14k
Remontada
6 months ago
Uh oh, not looking good for Kari
Remontada
6 months ago
My hopa is for Kari Lake to win.
Remontada
6 months ago
This is over when Myopa County comes in
Remontada
6 months ago
This is over when Myopa County comes in
Remontada
6 months ago
Fake news! Sad!
david689314
6 months ago
Lake lost indie vote by 27% in the latest batch
Remontada
6 months ago
Why is this not at 95% yet?
Remontada
6 months ago
Why is Lake not 90% yet?
Remontada
7 months ago
The worst thing about this market is that Sentinel last flew over Southern Lebanon on the 11th and does again on the 16th. No holders don't realise how lucky they got. Sad!
Remontada
7 months ago
I don't need to explain.
HouseAlwaysWins
7 months ago
why?
Remontada
7 months ago
The price of NO should be about 92c right now.
Remontada
7 months ago
WTF are you talking about
HouseAlwaysWins
7 months ago
fair value gap, chop chop chop, retracement
Remontada
7 months ago
It's amazing how much echoing and noise one comment can generate
Remontada
7 months ago
I didn't listen to the Space. Do I buy No?
Remontada
7 months ago
https://youtu.be/jxvR7ZUjaJk?feature=shared
Remontada
7 months ago
I've been a loyal follower of JoeBETS for years. He's never gotten a JRE podcast wrong!
JoeBETS
7 months ago
Never been one to shy from a free plug so thank you mn y dear brother. At www.joebets.com we're 19-1 and just had an incredible lock hit on yesterday's riyadh card. Ladies and gentlemen we offer money back guarantee for every losing month and can start you up at a 7 day free trial. Give us a shot, again that's www.joebets.com. With that being said, I am EXTREMELY confident No hits.
Remontada
7 months ago
Gamblers gonna gamble
Ylescaps
7 months ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season I have no idea why anyone is betting less than 14 , literally all forecasting systems predict 17+
Remontada
7 months ago
We're on 13. There is currently a building system off West Africa. There is also another potential system building in the Caribbean.
MeNoDatNutReelMuni
7 months ago
Any new ones? I don't understand how to read these lists
Remontada
7 months ago
What's with the contrarianism?
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
Yawn.
Remontada
7 months ago
No holders don't get the lore.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
Iran govt was cyber attacked very recently in all 3 major branches. https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1844812179826212963 On top of this, the US momentarily ago issued new sanctions adding Irans ghost fleet of Oil Tankers they use to deliver oil to countries without an Iranian ID (to avoid sanctions) to the sanctions list. This is likely part of the agreement with israel not to strike Irans Oil infra and instead kill their ability to export on tankers. All hope is not lost, something may happen in 10 hours, but most likely the US is effectively buying time and Israel may wait for a more opportune moment.
Remontada
7 months ago
Trust the process.
Remontada
7 months ago
Pretty crap
BabaVanga
7 months ago
Its pre-recorded of course: https://x.com/mtracey/status/1844482023530131483
Remontada
7 months ago
Downgraded 15 mins ago
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
lol, so it’s still a cat 3 at the time of this writing? ✍🏼
Remontada
7 months ago
Hasn't made landfall
bgosling
7 months ago
Is this resolved ? It’s category 3 when is it ending
Remontada
7 months ago
Insider trading!
Remontada
7 months ago
I'm not sure there even is a hurricane
Remontada
7 months ago
BREAKING: DAVID GOGGINS TO MAKE APPEARANCE ON ISHOWSPEED STREAM
Remontada
7 months ago
The Antichrist!
Sadio
7 months ago
Not even Jesus could do this
Remontada
7 months ago
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going"
Remontada
7 months ago
HE'S NOT A QUITTER
Remontada
7 months ago
I know nothing about backflipping, but what are the odds the greatest athlete of our generation can't do a few?
Remontada
7 months ago
The sun set on a moonless night.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
Well, I had my thesis and went big, its what I do. May have been caught out by the signals coming from adam and samson, but we will see how its goes. lots of suspicious stuff with these fortune and forbes links imo, but we will see.
Remontada
7 months ago
Can we all agree that Cullen is a fucking idiot.
Remontada
7 months ago
Because he's a moron
bogged
7 months ago
if that were true why not bet no on sassaman when he was 50%?
Remontada
7 months ago
Woah, how did I miss this?
yuyang
7 months ago
This morning, HBO leaked a video, and at the end of the movie, it reads: Memory of 'Dave Kleiman' - Forever Satoshi Nakamoto. Dave Kleiman is the final Satoshi Nakamoto.
Remontada
7 months ago
All on Back
Remontada
7 months ago
I would find that pretty funny.
Justifax
7 months ago
Though, it'd be super super fitting if the teaser to this doc was a hilarious and massive rug fueled by a fake forbes article. Performance art, let's call it..
Remontada
7 months ago
How can we get the Domer writeup if Domer isn't here?
Remontada
7 months ago
Let's be real. He won't.
Justifax
7 months ago
It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.
Remontada
7 months ago
Which is why I pay no heed.
ANudeEgg
7 months ago
Why? They always bet huge on random shit.
Remontada
7 months ago
Up until about 15 mins beforehand, the market thought beyonce performing was a lock.
n/a
7 months ago
I don't. how was it?
Remontada
7 months ago
Anon has been around a while. I don't get him sometimes.
popobet
7 months ago
So someone has the movie, but only 2 short clips leak? Sus, tho I admit @Anon1565 activity is more convincing
Remontada
7 months ago
Crystal clear.
DeucePapi
7 months ago
Anyone remember the DNC Beyonce/Taylor Swift performance market?
Remontada
7 months ago
The sun got a bit lower in the sky, that's all.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
whats changed?
Remontada
7 months ago
HaterzLoserz, Sitrep?
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/Excellion/status/1843782325865459955 I hate this man so much
Remontada
7 months ago
Just rehashing the clip we seen.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
yep dont fall for it, only scam accounts sharing on twitter
Remontada
7 months ago
Bing!
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
Why hello squad ^^
Remontada
7 months ago
Adam and Samson have been stirring shit for a week implying it's him.
Justifax
7 months ago
I mean, Adam did say it wasn't him. Lol
Remontada
7 months ago
HaterzLoserz, you need to leave some for the insiders!
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/lopp/status/1843742820072562964
Remontada
7 months ago
Yeah bro, must be Musk
tomaz
7 months ago
It's clearly not Adam and not Peter Todd. And probably not Vili either.
Remontada
7 months ago
I really hate this guy https://x.com/Excellion/status/1843737415175025002
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/Excellion/status/1843726030173024312 The amount of fuckery from this guy
Remontada
7 months ago
His stack is too big to pump.
McDonalds-Employee
7 months ago
You are trying to push Yes Votes, but the tweet is actually pushing No Votes higher, I quote: "A source with knowledge of the issue said Netanyahu has been waiting for several days to get a call with Biden, but this has not yet happened. Biden said several times that he is expected to speak with Netanyahu, but explained that this will happen after Israel decides how to respond to the Iranian attack, which has not happened yet either."
Remontada
7 months ago
Gallant scurrying to DC was too big a red herring for me. Why the need if CENTCOM just came to him? Anyways, let's see what happens.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1843699524415443001 ^^ Y'all are gonna learn that I am the best geopolitics predictooooor on this site very fast.
Remontada
7 months ago
You know, Other/Mutliple has been inflating every day. I wonder why.
Remontada
7 months ago
TBH, this morning my faith started to waiver.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1843699524415443001 ^^ Y'all are gonna learn that I am the best geopolitics predictooooor on this site very fast.
Remontada
7 months ago
Other/Multiple looks pretty insider-y, No?
WinstonChurchil
7 months ago
"Smart money" isn't the brother of an editor of the documentary...
Remontada
7 months ago
No holders here have way too much cheek.
Remontada
7 months ago
Only a small reason why.
McDonalds-Employee
7 months ago
People are voting on Others/Multiple because Samson Mow (who is in the documentary) said it's non of those in the list https://x.com/Excellion/status/1843569439310262466
Remontada
7 months ago
That's the most pathetic thing I've ever seen. Are you 14?
FreemanR
7 months ago
There are numerous leaks going around as on 12am EST Oct.8, good luck fellas: https://imgur.com/a/FMrvTCx
Remontada
7 months ago
Good to know.
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
I am commander of the IDF
Remontada
7 months ago
Disinfo goes both ways
nicekitty
7 months ago
People need to take a breather from X I think, the misinformation out there is real
Remontada
7 months ago
Even Nate thinks this is odd! https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1843344158662242761
Remontada
7 months ago
Right behind you.
Secret14thKey
7 months ago
I'm commenting a ground offensive on Ipsos HQ
Remontada
7 months ago
You're correct, Mondays, Tuesdays and Fridays are typically the days they drop.
Justifax
7 months ago
Art, am I mistaken or is tuesday the day when the most polls come out during the week? I did that analysis once. Monday or Tuesday, can't remember which.
Remontada
7 months ago
In red is the municipality outline: https://prnt.sc/KH7bXcVyAMiL Here is a list of all municipalities in Lebanon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_municipalities_of_Lebanon
Remontada
7 months ago
Came to me in a dream.
Car
7 months ago
4-5
Remontada
7 months ago
2 or below
Car
7 months ago
4-5
Remontada
7 months ago
I sincerely feel so bad for some Yes holders.
Remontada
7 months ago
CHAD ALERT!
Remontada
7 months ago
There's going to be so much winning, you're going to say pleeeease sir, no more winning!
Remontada
7 months ago
In the past, they have lumped their debate performance poll in with their latest national poll. Given that we get an Ipsos poll once a week at this stage of the cycle, in my view we are near certain to get the poll before the deadline.
05brownboy
7 months ago
i thought they would release it today but nothing yet they better release that shit before the deadline even if they have vance as the winner
Remontada
7 months ago
Ipsos have released a post debate poll for every single debate going back to the year 2000. Just want to lay that out.
Remontada
7 months ago
So much time!
Sardinianshepherd
7 months ago
9 days to go
Remontada
7 months ago
Probability ABC doesn't bother their ass to conduct a poll?
Apsalar
7 months ago
if you think it's possible for him to tie in the poll, then you have to think it's possible for him to win the poll, or you just don't know how polling/probability works.
Remontada
7 months ago
Nobody knows.
abdendriel
7 months ago
What’s the remaining point of uncertainty?
Remontada
7 months ago
22-07-2006: Israeli ground invasion begins. 23-07-2006: Battle of Bint Jbeil begins.
Remontada
7 months ago
YES!
severian
7 months ago
ILLEGAL A L I E N S
Remontada
7 months ago
Nah nvm. Love you trump!!!
Remontada
7 months ago
Are you fucking me
Remontada
7 months ago
Alternatives like refineries, pipelines, storage units?
sd2333
7 months ago
Live news: Biden tells Israel to consider ‘other alternatives’ to oilfield strikes https://www.ft.com/content/3261fc5f-c38d-4320-a0d7-addad7c9d758
Remontada
7 months ago
Without a dog in the fight, I hope you win.
RememberAmalek
7 months ago
Alright boys we've got a big battle going on here, anyone interested in contributing to not letting yet another scam succeed, add donkov_1 on Discord and they'll direct you, all hands on deck here!
Remontada
7 months ago
Odds on them not doing a poll.
aenews2
7 months ago
Is this really what the Vance guys are betting on? Look. Y'all may win. But it'll be razer close. This is not the bond you think it is.
Remontada
7 months ago
"IDF forces are starting to achieve operational control in southern Lebanon villages, @kann_news reports; over 600,000 local residents left their homes, enabling Israeli troops to operate more freely." https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1842232712385409429
Remontada
7 months ago
Because the ABC poll was expected to drop this morning. It didn't.
badatthis
7 months ago
So why Walz dropping lately? As far as I see nothing has changed since the debate ended
Remontada
7 months ago
Hezbollah and the IDF placed censorship on the 30th. This is a weak argument imo.
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
With such unanimous coverage, some videos of this invasion should be readily available. Thus far we've seen a Fox News guy talk about hiking through the woods, and then leaving again back to Israel.
Remontada
7 months ago
Thanks, now I can go to sleep.
RememberAmalek
7 months ago
I'm going to prematurely declare victory as the spearhead for our forces and our primary soldier for days.
Remontada
7 months ago
To 100. All the way to Beirut.
Rueben
7 months ago
As Honorary Chairman of the 50/50 Committee, i hereby declare this market 50/50
Remontada
7 months ago
Too far.
BibiNetanCocksucker
7 months ago
No one cares, faggot.
Remontada
7 months ago
Nananana we cant hear you!
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead
Remontada
7 months ago
It absolutely can. This is why P4's exist. A crux of No's argument is that the IDF's operation would be quick and limited. Time is judging this.
WhaleHunter
7 months ago
What happened in October cannot serve as evidence for September.
Remontada
7 months ago
You are a credit to the site Mr Trumpito.
DonaldinhoTrumpito
7 months ago
For what it's worth, chatGPT is on yes side now : https://x.com/Ragnarok_1er/status/1842063415692443663
Remontada
7 months ago
Israel extends evacuation warnings in Lebanon, signaling a wider offensiv https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-war-news-10-03-2024-5fad98f56ebcc7e1751388b608c7c8dd
Remontada
7 months ago
What a game
Remontada
7 months ago
Look at the little gremlins trying another scam.
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1841970307965563215
Remontada
7 months ago
What could have been...
grappli
7 months ago
Tampon Tim will never be president.
Remontada
7 months ago
It's so sick
JackBauerPowerHour
7 months ago
I think that was our shot for tampon tim
Remontada
7 months ago
Awaiting Donaldinho.
Remontada
7 months ago
I think we will see a combination of targets. I think the narrative that it will just be "oil" or just be "nuclear" or just be "etc" is a diversion.
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
How do you see the case for and against? I keep going back to Osirak during the Iran-Iraq War when Israel unilaterally knocked out one of Saddam's reactors.
Remontada
7 months ago
This one is a head scratcher.
Remontada
7 months ago
I know who you mean. I've only been here a couple of months but I keep my eyes open.
Ferguson,Turd
7 months ago
Its beyond suspect that the usual cast of characters all started buying NO right before the vote ended after pumping No and arguing for it
Remontada
7 months ago
The usual cast of characters is a funny way of putting it
Ferguson,Turd
7 months ago
Its beyond suspect that the usual cast of characters all started buying NO right before the vote ended after pumping No and arguing for it
Remontada
7 months ago
He made it up. As he usually does
kazukun23
7 months ago
info?
Remontada
7 months ago
Eh
Apsalar
7 months ago
Buying Walz solely because many of the people buying Vance seem to be doing so for very dumb reasons
Remontada
7 months ago
What are you talking about?
MalikNabers
7 months ago
Well CNN said he won so… ain’t no sure bet buddy
Remontada
7 months ago
Regarding people saying that Ipsos is biased, and that they said Biden "won" or "barely lost" the debate, have a read of what they actually said yourself. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll
Remontada
7 months ago
Three in five debate watchers said Trump performed best in the presidential debate, compared to 21% who said the same of Biden. One in five (19%) said they don’t know who performed best.
0xDa3Dc3aaAC020017306f1554baFA259539FAc0C6-1723953511745
7 months ago
can you send the link to that? not doubting you but i’m just curious
Remontada
7 months ago
sure here ya go https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll
0xDa3Dc3aaAC020017306f1554baFA259539FAc0C6-1723953511745
7 months ago
can you send the link to that? not doubting you but i’m just curious
Remontada
7 months ago
21% said. Let's not lie
MalikNabers
7 months ago
People realizing slowly that the people polled on this poll voted 40% that Biden won when he literally couldn’t talk lol.
Remontada
7 months ago
Polls specifically ask respondents to be impartial dependent of who they intend to vote for. Respondents often say the guy they intend to vote for performed poor.
0x829BF077B17B7623Db4733E57bd72A2ad8edA65E-1727042640743
7 months ago
Be real, the people engaged enough to watch a VP debate arnt going to change their mind about vance after months of him being demonized. Denying the election at the end just cemented that
Remontada
7 months ago
a while.
cody
7 months ago
when does the Ipsos poll come out
Remontada
7 months ago
Halperin thinks he cooked.
Remontada
7 months ago
No.
aegi2r3agg
7 months ago
do people rly think the old man won
Remontada
7 months ago
"I've become friends with school shooters"
Remontada
7 months ago
Euros are not retarded!
BreadGet
7 months ago
Are you Euros retarded or something. Vance is killing it
Remontada
7 months ago
Ipsos tilts. But it is not this biased.
Remontada
7 months ago
yup
n/a
7 months ago
Shouldve picked Shapiro
Remontada
7 months ago
"Steady leadership like you witnessed today"
Remontada
7 months ago
He's cooking!
Remontada
7 months ago
hehe
GNS
7 months ago
People YouTubed Walz speaking and realized he’s a moron.
Remontada
7 months ago
I don't think the Israelis play waiting games...
Bink_7
7 months ago
Mm
Remontada
7 months ago
Bink...
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1841187066832400574
Remontada
7 months ago
Senior analysts didn't think Israel would go into Lebanon.
itsok
7 months ago
0% chance it will take at-least a month top military experts say!
Remontada
7 months ago
The IDF: We will attack strongly tonight throughout the Middle East.
Remontada
7 months ago
There was no last time. This was unprecedented.
n/a
7 months ago
Last time they waited two weeks, I belief, but this time the attack was much more severe.
Remontada
7 months ago
Israel stands on business.
Remontada
7 months ago
Says the guy who bought at 37c, lol
FamilyCapital
7 months ago
After the long, fierce battle between the YES Holders and NO Holders, it seems we’ve all grown a bit tired of endless arguments and spreadsheets. So, here's the deal: let’s call a truce and split the final price 50/50. Peace at last—because even the gods of M&A are tired of watching this war in the comment section!
Remontada
7 months ago
Nice!
Remontada
7 months ago
For that plan you need liquidity. Of which there is piss all
fdsasacc
7 months ago
Dude spends $750 to propose resolution. Price shoots up 8%. Money well spent if they have 10k+ shares in the market. Optimal play (for someone with more money than me lol) is to buy 50,000 NO shares, then propose NO. Price tumbles by a couple %. Profit regardless of how it resolves.
Remontada
7 months ago
Are the whales asleep? What the hell is happening here, one way or the other...
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1840825765220532628 Suggests possible embassy evacuation
Remontada
7 months ago
HaterzLoserz deserves to be a CNN commentator
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840827222992830839
Remontada
7 months ago
Yup. Only a few hours.
Car
7 months ago
Also guys, they arent even over the border yet. And this market ends in a few hours lol.
Remontada
7 months ago
tldr
Car
7 months ago
Establish control over any portion of Lebanon
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1840812548742135850 key word "Night-vision"
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840812982571270189
Remontada
7 months ago
Faytuk is fast
Phat.
7 months ago
done deal
Remontada
7 months ago
TLDR
scottilicious
7 months ago
Ground operation in Lebanon would not be a “solution to the problem," former Israeli prime minister says From CNN’s Zahid Mahmood Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he does not think that an Israeli ground operation into Lebanon would be a “solution to the problem.” Olmert was prime minister when Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006. He said what is needed in the north of Israel is a joint coordination with the United States, the United Nations and the Lebanese government to move a “weakened” Hezbollah away from the Litani River in southern Lebanon. “This will not resolve all the issue(s), but it will open up for an opportunity to build up the necessary political powers and the military powers within Lebanon, which may change the balance there,” Olmert said The former prime minister also said Israel should stop its war in Gaza. He told CNN he thinks his country has “reached the objectives that we set out that we could achieve” there. “There is nothing more that is worth the cost of fighting in the south, particularly the danger to the lives of the hostages, which are still alive and which we may have brought them back in part of an agreement to ceasefire in the south,” he added.
Remontada
7 months ago
He actually did, he has started framing the narrative for Israel's invasion.
Phat.
7 months ago
He said nothing useful so far.
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840804707154981224
Remontada
7 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2QdCTlsE2M State Department Press Briefing about to begin
Remontada
7 months ago
Telegram
n/a
7 months ago
source
Remontada
7 months ago
From Hezbollah a second ago: ⭕ Peace be upon you, We kindly request everyone in all areas of Lebanon to refrain from taking any photos or videos of anything you see in the sky. We have now entered a new phase of the war, and it is religiously prohibited to share any footage. Please refrain from any filming. Thank you.
Remontada
7 months ago
Drive it down!
DeucePapi
7 months ago
Israel will invade when the yes market his 12cents
Remontada
7 months ago
Plans approved!
sd2333
7 months ago
https://x.com/idfonline/status/1840799109927571716
Remontada
7 months ago
Believing the Israeli's was your first mistake...
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
I sold and here is why: This market is going crazy given that the rules state that the operation needs to be “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. Even if they attack today (which is still maximum 50/50), its not even clear if it would count. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166
Remontada
7 months ago
lol
CYQ
7 months ago
Breaking News: CNN: Israel has invaded --- the local Jewish Deli
Remontada
7 months ago
I have my finger in that pie
DeucePapi
7 months ago
Anyone else in on this? https://polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-september-30/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-september-30
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MTVLebanonNews/status/1840780478384603409
Remontada
7 months ago
Colour me surprised
LongLiveJoeBiden
7 months ago
We will have a few very surprised faces after seeing the resolution of this market, you really got to read the rules more carefully guys
Remontada
7 months ago
This is vid from a few days ago
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
On the ground reporting. https://x.com/Zachonearth/status/1840750644036079654
Remontada
7 months ago
I say this with no disrespect. If you're buying No you need your head examined. Things move very fast now. 8PM and 6AM are the most likely times. This should be 30%+
Remontada
7 months ago
This is happening tonight
sd2333
7 months ago
CNN Confirming WASH POST https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1p3e8ah00053b6maf6m9hf8
Remontada
7 months ago
Don't spend it all in the one shop!
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840762008141996339
Remontada
7 months ago
B-but, the Jewish holiday!
Mr.Wellington
7 months ago
drop some links
Remontada
7 months ago
I planted the seeds of trees I would not sit in the shade of
Remontada
7 months ago
If the stated aim is to make a "buffer zone", clear out border villages etc, would this not meet the criteria?
Apsalar
7 months ago
even if "they" do call it an invasion, it not meeting the rule's definition would in face be an issue
Remontada
7 months ago
50-P
Remontada
7 months ago
*too
Mr.Damon
7 months ago
Not to late to get out
Remontada
7 months ago
It's psychology. People tried to bond this market. Plus Low Liquidity. Low Volume.
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
I am pretty new to Polymarket, so this does not male any sense to me. I post solid evidence, and the market falls to 16%... The *** is going on?! Unfortunately, I am all in already Bankroll wise 😂😂
Remontada
7 months ago
Can I also just point out the rules - The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel ... - Hezbollah have said the IDF crossed the border!
Remontada
7 months ago
Not how it works. It goes to UMA where it gets voted on.
Le-King
7 months ago
Cause Poly will resolve this however they want
Remontada
7 months ago
I sold 3k before I seen the Al Jazeera + Telegraph articles.
Mr.Damon
7 months ago
its not going to happen mid day or at night. you guys got one more day
Remontada
7 months ago
It can happen at any time. It is nearly certainly already happening, but behind the fog of war.
Mr.Damon
7 months ago
its not going to happen mid day or at night. you guys got one more day
Remontada
7 months ago
I've been following this stuff very closely the lasst couple weeks, feed is flooded with arabic and hebrew
Remontada
7 months ago
So, we have US officials leaking this morning that "limited" cross border incursions may be occuring, and we have Hezbollah declaring they are thwarting such incursions. Remember also, raids are not as newsworthy as "full invasion", "Sa'ar In", "Hezbollah new leader". We have to dig through the noise.
Remontada
7 months ago
Same thing, but from Al Jazeera@ https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1840407001639301552
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MTVLebanonNews/status/1840407830093803892 Hezbollah: We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramya site in southern Lebanon
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MTVLebanonNews/status/1840407830093803892 Hezbollah: We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramya site in southern Lebanon
Remontada
7 months ago
So, we have US officials leaking this morning that "limited" cross border incursions may be occuring, and we have Hezbollah declaring they are thwarting such incursions. Remember also, raids are not as newsworthy as "full invasion", "Sa'ar In", "Hezbollah new leader". We have to dig through the noise.
Remontada
7 months ago
That clip is no use to us.
abdendriel
7 months ago
Anyone can interpret this briefing? https://videoidf.azureedge.net/de0e8cf9-6aa4-4705-bd5d-8783aa71e3a4
Remontada
7 months ago
So, we have US officials leaking this morning that "limited" cross border incursions may be occuring, and we have Hezbollah declaring they are thwarting such incursions. Remember also, raids are not as newsworthy as "full invasion", "Sa'ar In", "Hezbollah new leader". We have to dig through the noise.
Remontada
7 months ago
We are betting on ground operations. Not on an invasion. Special forces raiding across the border equals YES
peasant
7 months ago
Guess “combat operations” is going to be doing a LOT of work here
Remontada
7 months ago
Two related, but different events.
kekkone
7 months ago
The Hezbollah statement says "In defense of Lebanon and its people, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of enemy soldiers in the Shtula settlement with rocket weapons, achieving confirmed casualties." Shtula is in Israel.
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1840399570511007905
Remontada
7 months ago
Just a caveat for this market - There is reporting that the IDF "may" have already begun crossing the border in small operations. Officially, the IDF deny this. There's a strong case for UMA to rule too early.
Remontada
7 months ago
It's not nearly as relevant as you are suggesting
Justifax
7 months ago
@Porcoddio if you know something about the cabinet meeting, please share. It's sort of relevant for this market given the tight timeline.
Remontada
7 months ago
XD
debased
7 months ago
I m told that if trump odds flip harris' on polymarket, the tanks will return from the border
Remontada
7 months ago
You're wearing a suit, you must be right!
Mr.Wellington
7 months ago
No chance. U.S election coming up... expect the airstrikes to continue but a second front won't be open in the north for Israel. Hezbollah leadership is gone no need to invade and lose Israeli soldiers.
Remontada
7 months ago
Any hour.
OhNos
7 months ago
seems like any day now https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1840139662402433527
Remontada
7 months ago
Felt it in my bones
PanosMariolis2001
7 months ago
border number?
Remontada
7 months ago
My only regret is I didn't buy more...
Remontada
7 months ago
BANG
Remontada
7 months ago
4
PanosMariolis2001
7 months ago
border number?
Remontada
7 months ago
There were reports earlier that Nasrallah was "fatally wounded." Now they're striking the bunker again. Would suggest he's trapped and incapacitated.
Remontada
7 months ago
*than
Remontada
7 months ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hebrew-media-reports-growing-israeli-assessment-nasrallah-killed-in-beirut-strike/ More recent and more reliable that "BBC Pidgin"
Remontada
7 months ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hebrew-media-reports-growing-israeli-assessment-nasrallah-killed-in-beirut-strike/ More recent and more reliable that "BBC Pidgin"
Remontada
7 months ago
Also true
Justifax
7 months ago
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1839712995116470296 Barak is a credible source
Remontada
7 months ago
true
Justifax
7 months ago
Note that sentdefender is useful for gambling off of, but it is *not* a credible source by any stretch.
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1839720294958682559
Remontada
7 months ago
He is a scammer yes. But he did not fake the crater in Beirut.
Justifax
7 months ago
Sort of sad how people come to the site maybe to see what's up and then there is the piece of shit scammer Car and think this is what polymarket is all about that. Anyways, truth is that we are dealing with fog of war. If the market reflected reality, there would be very large spread. Right now it's just degenerate gambling.
Remontada
7 months ago
Ah yes. The very reliable IRCG news.
AgricultureSecretary
7 months ago
https://x.com/SprinterFamily/status/1839717289777610764?t=6AMI4lWuBXcKr3yG2cC5bw&s=19
Remontada
7 months ago
Always a fun day on Polymarket!
Remontada
7 months ago
My risk is hedged in so many ways!
Spotifypremium
7 months ago
You all are forgetting the title of this trade... it's now whether he will die or not but if he'll remain hezbollah leader. meaning, if he's badly hurt (which is high likely happened) then someone will replace him.
Remontada
7 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1839700271561060440
Remontada
7 months ago
A) He survived. B) He didn't. C) Hezbollah try to cover it up. - Regardless, he has a life expectancy measured in days at this point
Remontada
7 months ago
Tel Aviv under fire
Remontada
7 months ago
*scammer paws
Car
7 months ago
Yeah right and im Santa Claus
Remontada
7 months ago
Pretty soon we'll have a "What day will Israel Invade" market.
Remontada
7 months ago
Dont worry guys, Biden will de-escalate!
Remontada
7 months ago
Thanks for the fill!
Remontada
7 months ago
See that big wall at 61c? Buy that
XiJinPing
7 months ago
@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"
Remontada
7 months ago
Fill me!
Remontada
7 months ago
Let HaterzLoserz cook
Mr-Yolos
7 months ago
Why does the top yes holder keep trying to convince us of his position while market buying every dip? It would surely be easier to stay quiet and build up a position with limit orders idk!
Remontada
7 months ago
In Mountainman's defense, if people are losing 100k because of a comment... It was gonna happen sooner or later.
Mountainman
7 months ago
Amazing how you would waste your time writing fan fiction about someone on an internet message board. Sad. Nothing you said was true in the slightest. Hungrytoad lost money because he market sold at the absolute bottom. Furthermore, I am still waiting for someone to point out one time I lied or gave fake news. They never do, because it never happened. The truth of the matter is that several of you wanted me to lose, and called me names while saying how eager you were to watch me lose money. You were all so sure and so cocky, but turns out that you lost your ass and I am in heavy profit. Deal with it.
Remontada
7 months ago
So glad I sold Yes!
Remontada
7 months ago
So he has a rally today. Wonder what he'll say.
Remontada
7 months ago
Glad I sold No!
Remontada
8 months ago
Which side. Which side...
Remontada
8 months ago
5 to go...
Remontada
8 months ago
Pipe down
XiJinPing
8 months ago
BennyS negative PnL talking shit, then panic sells majority of his shares 😂
Remontada
8 months ago
Only 7 away!
Remontada
8 months ago
Domer, can we laugh just at ZionLion? Is that okay?
Remontada
8 months ago
Can someone give me an example of the last time the CME got it wrong the day of the rate cut?
Remontada
8 months ago
Yes
Crapshotz
8 months ago
Courage in your convictions gents...
Remontada
8 months ago
What diddy do
Remontada
8 months ago
Just to put a dampner on all of you. This "dinner" will have loads of others at it. It is possible cameras won't be allowed to be brought in. Trump will probably only be there briefly (he's a grifter).
Remontada
8 months ago
What will ZionLion's hourly be when he's right? 0.0001c?
Remontada
8 months ago
Do 25bps holders really believe that their sentiment is sharper than CME?
Remontada
8 months ago
I'll take the L. On to the next one
Remontada
8 months ago
Be kind to yourself today. Take a break, reflect on the beauty of life.
Hungrytoad
8 months ago
I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help
Remontada
8 months ago
It wasn't clear what the hell he said imo
itsok
8 months ago
They announced the coin is dropping NOV 4, just now!
Remontada
8 months ago
Stop
itsok
8 months ago
They announced the coin is dropping NOV 4, just now!
Remontada
8 months ago
Bad week to quit galaxy gas
cryptomike
8 months ago
Anyone else need a cigarette after that?
Remontada
8 months ago
What now
Remontada
8 months ago
I think he kind of tripped over himself as he was speaking, but that's initially how I understood it. Who fucking knows
peasant
8 months ago
I didn’t hear it but I’m so over this so was half listening
Remontada
8 months ago
Can a someone tell me completely straight, did he not say "BY November x th"?
Remontada
8 months ago
WHAT
Remontada
8 months ago
FINALLY
Remontada
8 months ago
It's only been 2 hours??
RememberAmalek
8 months ago
2 hours of this is melting my brain
Remontada
8 months ago
I'm so bored
Remontada
8 months ago
My goodness, it's as if they're skirting around it on purpose to mess with us
Remontada
8 months ago
Feed the toad
Hungrytoad
8 months ago
Keep buying no shares lol .. if it goes low enough might double my position 😘
Remontada
8 months ago
We're getting in to the details!
Remontada
8 months ago
Hopefully
Mountainman
8 months ago
Are we going to have to listen to Baron too?
Remontada
8 months ago
Token?
Remontada
8 months ago
So?
peasant
8 months ago
Lol trump definitely left the livestream. They been talking about him in 3rd person
Remontada
8 months ago
What kind of reverse psychology is this
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
Coin deployment imminent.
Remontada
8 months ago
Yessir
aenews2
8 months ago
hold my hand
Remontada
8 months ago
What does that even mean?
ColonelChad
8 months ago
So many 50bps jeets here
Remontada
8 months ago
Are you straw-manning?
Andrewmarch
8 months ago
Bro….
Remontada
8 months ago
No need to keep spamming this.
Justifax
8 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-rate-cuts-will-not-be-deep-market-expects-says-blackrock-2024-09-16/ why are people so fucking allergic to links
Remontada
8 months ago
Johnhan is controlled opposition!
Remontada
8 months ago
Not reading all that.
🪦🦁🪦
8 months ago
everyone thinking 50bps * 3.... living in a movie. this ain't 2008 on the Jobs side, it's 2000 on the assets side. FED got no reason to go hard & act like it's the end of the world, while spooking markets, and USA won China Markets-Wise by long way so far, so no need to ultra stimulate too hard now right also
Remontada
8 months ago
Cope and seethe
Remontada
8 months ago
50-peanuts
mr.ozi
8 months ago
The main market: It's a toss-up! This market: Nahh, kids are just having a little fun.
Remontada
8 months ago
We do a little swing trading.
AiBets
8 months ago
wow some new huge account going all in on kamala, wonder which way it'l be rigged in favor of!
Remontada
8 months ago
Goated
ACat
8 months ago
No. His diamond hands did not sell a single share in the 80s.
Remontada
8 months ago
Have we heard from TheGuru?
Remontada
8 months ago
You dont know who I am.
AiBets
8 months ago
wow some new huge account going all in on kamala, wonder which way it'l be rigged in favor of!
Remontada
8 months ago
He's manipulating it in the dumbest way possible
AiBets
8 months ago
wow some new huge account going all in on kamala, wonder which way it'l be rigged in favor of!
Remontada
8 months ago
Good thing this isn't a market for Predictit!
0xd5234y2a907c097436749G021105bg3820f02k3
8 months ago
On Betfair KH 52%, Trump 46%, PolyM will see reason by Tuesday ;)
Remontada
8 months ago
Costs less to defend a lead
babendums
8 months ago
whales on the wrong side of this bet..
Remontada
8 months ago
All my pnl is the result of dreams, bullish
yoonmarketenjoyer
8 months ago
I saw it in a dream.
Remontada
8 months ago
Ave
ACat
8 months ago
Our derivatives whale has made his reappearance.
Remontada
8 months ago
https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/66368/whats-the-origin-of-copycat
Rueben
8 months ago
Crackhead references crack the drug. Crackshot does not reference the drug.
Remontada
8 months ago
He's already dead!
DonaldinhoTrumpito
8 months ago
So you knew she would repeat, and yet the only bet you made was on a word she didn't say the 1st time. Makes sense.
Remontada
8 months ago
Wow, free analysis. Very kind
Sardinianshepherd
8 months ago
There is still the option they launch after the election, at this price it's not worth selling. If they launch before the election, then congrats to mountain — well deserved victory we'll take the L.
Remontada
8 months ago
HAHA
Remontada
8 months ago
Regardless of context
Justifax
8 months ago
probably .. they sort of mean the same thing, though different context
Remontada
8 months ago
Glad I sold Rig!
Remontada
8 months ago
Congrats. I got out at 40c.
Mrmarket334
8 months ago
RIGGED? EZ BOYS
Remontada
8 months ago
Careful. He usually says it at the very end
Mrmarket334
8 months ago
RIGGED? EZ BOYS
Remontada
8 months ago
Whales are washed
Car
8 months ago
Ask Domer, he has very good arguments for NO!
Remontada
8 months ago
The Annoying Orange
Remontada
8 months ago
And Wojtek, why do you not have a Yes position?
Wojtek
8 months ago
people who say it is AI fake clearly don't follow the story. here is trump's son talking about the project month ago on X spaces: https://x.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1822015333638525051
Remontada
8 months ago
That's fair. Guess time will tell!
icanfixmyself
8 months ago
Thats the guess, yes
Remontada
8 months ago
I'm in this market 30mins. Can someone tell me the case for No? Is it just that you believe his twitter was hacked?
Remontada
8 months ago
I'm learning some guy with 500$ pnl has a substack. Amazing!
Remontada
8 months ago
hehehe
MALDEMER
8 months ago
have you ever posted a comment that wasn't retarded
Remontada
8 months ago
Mountainman is a genius
Remontada
8 months ago
SQUEEZE
Remontada
8 months ago
They do not know their greed
TheGuru
8 months ago
Don't give the Trump side too much value, just chill. You could end up sweating if someone puts in a million dollar order on the trump side
Remontada
8 months ago
Some poor Trump holder said he was going to double his account tonight. Sad!
Remontada
8 months ago
FUD
Apsalar
8 months ago
kamala seems way overvalued now tbh. time to switch sides.
Remontada
8 months ago
And tomorrow CNN will be using her Polymarket odds as puff.
Remontada
8 months ago
It's 4am where I am. Hate it and love it
ACat
8 months ago
I'm going to need a shower after getting this one right.
Remontada
8 months ago
It will be remarkably easy. All in the rules
Republican
8 months ago
Feel like this market is going to be hard to resolve
Remontada
8 months ago
There's another 4 hours
mmmpieee
8 months ago
is it over???
Remontada
8 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK0IDmSYYGk
Remontada
8 months ago
read the rules
BigDoh
8 months ago
I need somebody to explain to me where we are at with the leads and time left and all that
Remontada
8 months ago
You have a point
Justifax
8 months ago
lulz 50-Pence 50-Pence sold 1,333,333 Yes for Kamala Harris at 49.3¢ ($657,333)
Remontada
8 months ago
Nuke
Justifax
8 months ago
lulz 50-Pence 50-Pence sold 1,333,333 Yes for Kamala Harris at 49.3¢ ($657,333)
Remontada
8 months ago
Fair enough
COSSACK
8 months ago
you can operate infinite amount of accounts pretty easily
Remontada
8 months ago
What would be the point though
COSSACK
8 months ago
you can operate infinite amount of accounts pretty easily
Remontada
8 months ago
The market would need to be depressed for over 2 hours.
soylentgoy
8 months ago
100% scares me , thats why i have my finger over the sell button until this market closes
Remontada
8 months ago
What happened in the last derivative market?
Apsalar
8 months ago
I think I've seen this film before and I didn't like the ending
Remontada
8 months ago
How have I manipulated the market?
PredictivePidgeon
8 months ago
And you’re totally objective with a 40k Kamala holding right? Btw if anyone wants me to stop commenting tip me $80 no questions asked and I’ll stop;)
Remontada
8 months ago
Electoral College. Fundamentals. Does the debate matter that much?
KingFer
8 months ago
this is sketchy, she wiped the floor with him last night
Remontada
8 months ago
Stone cold
TheGuru
8 months ago
Thanks for the big position, the main presidential market is overestimating Trump currently, the market should adjust soon. If it doesn't I'll make it adjust myself
Remontada
8 months ago
I love polymarket
Remontada
8 months ago
Can we get much higher?
Remontada
8 months ago
Cool story bro
thakattack19
8 months ago
maybe robinhood saved my ass today. I was legit gonna dump 3k to buy like 8k shares earlier but couldn't sell my market shares after market to buy usdc and won't let me instant deposit
Remontada
8 months ago
Very small studio. Podiums just six feet apart. Hard not to be nice!
sosuke
8 months ago
wtf why is it mooning
Remontada
8 months ago
She won that debate
Meow.Zedong
8 months ago
When has Harris ever performed well in a presidential debate? She read from notes with Mike Pence. She’s in trouble.
Remontada
8 months ago
Those podiums are very close!
Remontada
8 months ago
I am not trolling! And why can't there be a 20% chance? There's going to be huge volatility in all the election markets over the next couple of days.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
You're schizo posting. CUTNPASTE may lose, but atleast he understands the rules.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
And if the coconut gets cracked?
aenews2
8 months ago
easy money, orange is getting SQUEEZED tonight
Remontada
8 months ago
Trump!
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
Take it from Polymarket's twitter https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/1833567509829575076
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
"The relevant data points will be those each minute during 9 PM ET to 1 AM ET (i.e. 9:00, 9:01 up to 12:59 AM ET) for each of the candidates. Each of these data points will be compared minute-by-minute, and this market will resolve to whichever candidate is ahead more than the other. For example if they are tied in 160 data points, Trump is ahead in 60 data points, and Harris is ahead in 20 data points, this market would resolve to "Trump."" There is no mention of a starting line. The simple interpretation of this market is that it is whoever is the favourite on each minute candlestick. Whoever has the most candlesticks as favourite wins. TLDR, Trump has to drop (Kamala has to gain) 6 points.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
I do not know how 432 has come to that conclusion. It is not "Who will gain more" it is "Who will be the favourite". Easy to understand.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
I just tried to re-read the market explanation 3x & ended up selling bc it doesn't look like the market title is what we're actually betting on. The writer clearly sniffed 90mg of Adderall prior to creating this disaster
Remontada
8 months ago
This is how I also understand it. The word "gain" isn't in there, like the RCP RFK market.
Qualitative
8 months ago
No, it's who will be ahead for a 4 hour window. Even if Kamala gains 5 points post debate if her odds are still lower than trumps she loses.
Remontada
8 months ago
It's all in the rules man...
DeucePapi
8 months ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Remontada
8 months ago
Thanks mattyrice, very cool!
YIMBYcaucus🏡
8 months ago
a prosecutor does not shake hands with the defendent
Remontada
8 months ago
Think you need to read the rules buddy
432
8 months ago
read the rules.His current lead is irrelevant
Remontada
8 months ago
Buy then!
Pogpogpog
8 months ago
Reminder: 538 is a far left news source so harris will “win” the debate according to their poll regardless of the debate performance.
Remontada
8 months ago
367 shares...
Car
8 months ago
Car asking for exit liquidity, car scamming, blablabla, car pumping, blablabla.
Remontada
8 months ago
GG
Remontada
8 months ago
It is. And it may.
Qualitative
8 months ago
At this stage any remaining equity in Kamala shares is literally hoping for market manipulation shenanigans
Remontada
8 months ago
I'm so glad I sold this weeks ago
Remontada
8 months ago
Further to this, for Rasmussen to be greater than 3, they need a differential of 13.5 today. If I'm not mistaken
diddy
8 months ago
There actually won’t be these 10 points this time since growth is linear. What is for sure now is that Trump can’t get +4. The way the trend goes makes it Trump +1, it’s neither +2, or +3. It can very much be said that Kamala win is set in stone, literally every pool including Fox News would give points to Kamala as of now.
Remontada
8 months ago
Thanks for admitting this
MyLossIsYourGain
8 months ago
Btw Car here is just trolling yall. Just ignore his rambling of old news
Remontada
8 months ago
Have you read the article? Where is the quote that makes you so certain?
scattering
8 months ago
If guardian did a mistake I‘ll pay up the 1000$. Confidence: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/25/telegram-app-founder-pavel-durov-to-appear-in-court-after-arrest-in-paris
Remontada
8 months ago
There's only pre-trial detention if the magistrate brings formal charges! That hasn't happened. Even then, house arrest is a very likely form of detention.
theta-thunberg
8 months ago
do u all think after they're done questioning you they have to let you go? no pre-trial detention?
Remontada
8 months ago
What's funny is, custody ends on the 28th, but there's even a chance he gets released from questioning today or tomorrow.
dayvisit
8 months ago
Did you read the part where the custody period ends August 28th or na?
Remontada
8 months ago
https://www.tribunal-de-paris.justice.fr/sites/default/files/2024-08/2024-08-26%20-%20CP%20TELEGRAM%20.pdf Here are all the charges. The investigate was opened on the 8th of July.
EmpirePending
8 months ago
They want him on terrorism chargers there’s no way they let him out in 3 days. They won’t get him on bail because he will be a flight risk.
Remontada
8 months ago
Same thing happened earlier for Yes
n/a
8 months ago
first time here maybe
Remontada
8 months ago
People need to learn about market orders vs limit...
Arbiter-of-Truth
8 months ago
ill take that, im out in profit
Remontada
8 months ago
Press release from the French Prosecutor. https://www.tribunal-de-paris.justice.fr/sites/default/files/2024-08/2024-08-26%20-%20CP%20TELEGRAM%20.pdf
Remontada
8 months ago
“At the heart of the case is the absence of moderation and cooperation on the part of the platform,” Bernigaud said, “especially in the fight against child sex crimes.”
Remontada
8 months ago
WaPo saying the detention is driven by the lack of moderation of illegal activities on Telegram. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/26/pavel-durov-telegram-france-detention/
Remontada
8 months ago
WaPo saying the detention is driven by the lack of moderation of illegal activities on Telegram. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/26/pavel-durov-telegram-france-detention/
Remontada
8 months ago
Do you think it is likely a billionaire CEO will see prison for lack of content moderation?
tsybka
8 months ago
The period of detention of Pavel Durov in France expires on August 28
Remontada
8 months ago
Let's take a step back. They're holding him accountable for activities that take place on his platform. On basis, does that seem reasonable to you?
Car
8 months ago
it does. And then a judge will decide to keep the terrorist, money launderer and child abuser locked up for longer.
Remontada
8 months ago
It's substantive reasoning for his position. Always do your own research of course.
Rorrr
8 months ago
especially a thread of someone holding a large Yes position
Remontada
8 months ago
They didn't go to much effort. It was an adhoc arrest. Read tsybka's excellent explanation https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413
diddy
8 months ago
Guys you do realize that 4 days is rather a short period of time to get him released. Why would they go through so much effort arresting such a figure only to release him asap, there isn’t any major backlash. I think 36% is insane
Remontada
8 months ago
Nice to see someone sharing my opinion
tsybka
8 months ago
https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413
Remontada
8 months ago
He's gone into shill mode
Car
8 months ago
Because this site is full of dumb people. Take advantage of it as much as you can!
Remontada
8 months ago
https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1827391636227096951?s=46
Remontada
8 months ago
Ah, I see. That's a good catch.
Justifax
8 months ago
fair clarification. so the numbers could theoretically change depending on when / how they update and revise.
Remontada
8 months ago
How is it disinfo?
Justifax
8 months ago
fair clarification. so the numbers could theoretically change depending on when / how they update and revise.
Remontada
8 months ago
If on the 31/08 (day 8), the difference is greater than +1.5, this market will resolve for Harris.
Remontada
8 months ago
Its 48.4 - 46.9 to Harris. She has a +1.5 difference as of today, 23/08 (day 0).
Remontada
8 months ago
Its 48.4 - 46.9 to Harris. She has a +1.5 difference as of today, 23/08 (day 0).
Justifax
8 months ago
fair clarification. so the numbers could theoretically change depending on when / how they update and revise.
Remontada
8 months ago
Poly clarification. They wipe the order book before they add context. (Learned this just today on other RFK markets).
EdgyUsername
8 months ago
What just happened??
Remontada
8 months ago
Yeah sure, I'm in the Poly discord. Also with a Seinfeld pfp
Zeke5044
8 months ago
This could be it! https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mpox-wayne-county-health-department-confirms-first-case-since-2022
Remontada
8 months ago
My position was massively oversized in relation to my bankroll. I'm diversifying.
Zeke5044
8 months ago
This could be it! https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mpox-wayne-county-health-department-confirms-first-case-since-2022
Remontada
8 months ago
I know. But it is nearly certainly Clade II.
Zeke5044
8 months ago
This could be it! https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mpox-wayne-county-health-department-confirms-first-case-since-2022
Remontada
8 months ago
We were through this...
Zeke5044
8 months ago
This could be it! https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mpox-wayne-county-health-department-confirms-first-case-since-2022
Remontada
9 months ago
nice
viltalik
9 months ago
.30 fill !!
Remontada
9 months ago
https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mpox-wayne-county-health-department-confirms-first-case-since-2022
n/a
9 months ago
Source?
Remontada
9 months ago
Scammers on Twitter misreporting the headline that this is the first case of Mpox in the entirety of the USA for two years.
Remontada
9 months ago
This market resolves to Clade I. Clade II has been in the USA for years now. A news outlet in Detroit confirmed that a county have had their first case of Mpox since 2022. There is no mention of the strain, but it is almost certainly Clade II.
Remontada
9 months ago
Clade II
polypocket
9 months ago
out of my no 😰 mpox found in new jersey wastewater
Remontada
9 months ago
Funnest thing I've seen in a long time haha
RememberAmalek
9 months ago
That's the kind of half baked thinking I'd expect from a Y buyer
Remontada
9 months ago
Nice pump. You just made up that he travelled from the US.
n/a
9 months ago
NEW -- "Clade 1 has been found in Thailand, marking a 2nd international case. That person reportedly traveled to Africa + U.S. before returning to Thailand"
Remontada
9 months ago
Why do you keep swapping sides?
sharky🦈🦈🦈
9 months ago
Dont worry china is next
Remontada
9 months ago
Nope. Pakistan and the Philippines had reported cases of Clade 2. I think there's confusion with most people.
strimmlarn
9 months ago
has a single country gotten mpox claude 1 after Sweden?
Remontada
9 months ago
Buy more
SaulGoodmanEsq
9 months ago
The media is absolutely salivating. Every outlet is itching to be the first to report a positive case in the US. The fear machine will be cranked up tomorrow.
Remontada
9 months ago
Just making the normie point
XiJinPing
9 months ago
ravid is slow news lol, there's faster sources than him. 30 minutes early.
Remontada
9 months ago
It's because Barak Ravid reported Israel thinks an attack is unlikely tonight.
martingale
9 months ago
Why did everyone sell Yes lol?
Remontada
9 months ago
Of course
n/a
9 months ago
What if news comes out about strike and someone places a bet immediately? Would that still be valid?
Remontada
9 months ago
Old
Doable
9 months ago
found this : https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-report-khamenei-agrees-to-postpone-attack-on-israel-us-opens-hotline
Remontada
9 months ago
Source - he made it up
moviesera92
9 months ago
Link?
Remontada
9 months ago
It's not the reason people have stock in Yes. That tweet being fake is already priced in.
Justifax
9 months ago
The actual attack occurred on April 13th.
Remontada
9 months ago
There is plenty to suggest.
Au-gust
9 months ago
nothing really to suggest it will be tonight ... pure speculation aside from the fact that Iran has probably decided to carry out *an* attack
Remontada
9 months ago
Gonna be a long night guys. Strap in
Remontada
9 months ago
If that's what Iran is going for, tonight makes the most sense. No need to worry about the bet not lasting a few more hours.
0xD11e
9 months ago
So the Jewish "9th of Av" starts at sundown today and ends at sundown tomorrow. Sundown in Israel was already 1½ hours ago, so we have entered the timeframe. It is unfortunate that this bet ends today, only 8 hours into the timeframe of 24 hours that Iran is believed to attack. I already heard this rumor a week ago on Twitter ( https://x.com/Know_More_News/status/1820507313209500120/ ) but I never took this religious stuff seriously. "The 9th of Av" is of course the "Tisha B'Av" that others here have referenced. Some say it's the traditional Jewish holiday of nothing happening.
Remontada
9 months ago
I agree!
XiJinPing
9 months ago
Iran likely won't attack tonight, but there's way more than 10% chance that it does. Closer to at least 25%.
Remontada
9 months ago
Iran has said the ceasefire talks will not sway their attack. IMO, Iran's best bet is to attack, and rely on the US to restrain Israel. Personally, I don't believe the USA will let the Israelis get away with escalation again like they did on July 31st.
NothingEverHappens
9 months ago
They are larping in order to have the upper hand during the negociation deal and show the world they were on the edge of delivering a blow but that they restrained and acted rationnaly same for Hamas when they said that they won't attend the meeting it won't change anything as Qatar will plea for them and they will find an agreement as it is in nobody's interests to start up a regional war. They are showing muscles in order to prevail during the negociation phase.
Remontada
9 months ago
If Iran does nothing it's also suicide. It sends a terrible message to their allies. Iran must re-establish deterrence with Israel.
NothingEverHappens
9 months ago
Iran won't do shit simple as that. Imagine persians giving a pretext to israel to anhilate their nuclear facilities just because some arab got killed by mossad agents in Tehran. If Iran didn't retaliated for the murder of dozens of his elite nuclear scientist why should they react for such an insignificant loss (houmous puppets are legion).
Remontada
9 months ago
Switched sides?
XiJinPing
9 months ago
"Iran will attack tomorrow, I pinky promise" -- people been crying wolf everyday for the past 2 weeks lmao
Remontada
9 months ago
The US and Israel held your opinion last week that Iran was reconsidering. Now, the US and Israel are bracing for an attack in the next 24 hours. I am going off Axios and Reuters reporting, not feels. Last point, Iran gave back-channel notice in April. This was not public reported till after the attacks. Who's to say Iran didn't give a similar back-channel warning over the weekend? Would explain why the US is bracing.
NothingEverHappens
9 months ago
two more weeks XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD !!! Iranians have already cucked out and decided to "postpone" their retaliation. The only way out for Iran to save what is left of their credibility is to force houmous to accept the ceasefire. Iranians won't let their nuclear plants being carpet bombed just for the sake of retaliating. Iranians are vicious but not stupid.
Remontada
9 months ago
One more night left in Iran to resolve this market. Axios & Reuters now reporting that Iran is expected to attack before Thursday. US taking it seriously. NOTAM in place in Western Iran between 11th and 14th of August for IRCG "Wargames". Since the outset of the crisis, it was believed Iran with attack on Tisha B'Av. And a reminder, the market resolves at Midnight Eastern Time, or 07:30am Iranian Time Tuesday.
Remontada
9 months ago
I pray nothing happens.
XiJinPing
9 months ago
correction: "you pray it will happen monday"
Remontada
9 months ago
Mr. Xi, while he may be down 5k - it does look quite likely now this will happen by Monday night.
XiJinPing
9 months ago
youre already down 5k, just give me ur daughter and ill help you out
Remontada
9 months ago
Could happen
Mike2025
9 months ago
Valente has won unless she falls off her bike.
Remontada
9 months ago
So True!
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
9 months ago
HANS v NEPO final, Nepo will stay true to stereotype and LOSE!
Remontada
9 months ago
Nothing ever happens
martingale
9 months ago
Could be tonight https://twitter.com/ILRedAlert/status/1821242350091305296 "Iran has warned all global airlines to avoid its airspace, an Egyptian government source tells Al Qahera News."
Remontada
9 months ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pennsylvania-gov-josh-shapiro-support-pushback-harris-before-vp-pick-announcement/ just one example
GreenBeanEater
9 months ago
He does not have a 61%+ approval rating. Don’t know where people keep pulling that number from.
Remontada
9 months ago
The question is, will she cave to the far left of her party, or will she stick to the guy who helps her the most in the Electoral College.
Remontada
9 months ago
Shhh. Let them push Shapiro's price lower
pcutz
9 months ago
Philly mayor: https://x.com/PeopleforParker/status/1819436801280389542
Remontada
9 months ago
That Axios Governor fundraising article is not the reason why he is favorite. He is favorite because sources in DC and Philly are saying it is him.
Tories4Harris
9 months ago
The only downside is reportedly a governor was being considering due to campaign finance restrictions which is why Josh was the favorite. If Josh wasn't the favorite or the article is wrong I'm just throwing away $40.
Remontada
9 months ago
It would indicate they are not expecting to be picked.
Shayku
9 months ago
Not sure what that indicates at all - those would be negatives against them being picked?
Remontada
9 months ago
Per NYTIMES moments ago: "Here’s a potential veepstakes tea leaf: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky are scheduled to host fund-raisers for the Harris campaign on Monday night, the evening before the deadline that the Harris campaign has suggested it has set to announce its vice-presidential pick. Walz will headline a fund-raiser in Minneapolis, and Beshear will be featured at one in Chicago, according to the invites."
Remontada
9 months ago
Literally the opposite.
MurkKellyVP
9 months ago
Shapiro officially out: https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/1819072316292178267
Remontada
9 months ago
The Hill Story has been out 8 hours. The pump happened 1 hour ago. Let's be real.
Remontada
9 months ago
No, that is not the reason. It is in fact the Newswire story.
Remontada
9 months ago
No, that is not the reason. It is in fact the Newswire story.
fluidsuccessfullybad
9 months ago
The reason Beshear is pumping is because of this letter released by Democratic progressives, not the fake NewsWire story: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4800359-kamala-harris-josh-shapiro-andy-beshear-tim-walz/
Remontada
9 months ago
Buy, Sell, Buy, Sell, Buy, Sell
Remontada
10 months ago
Oh, and also https://apnews.com/article/biden-trump-poll-drop-out-debate-democrats-59eebaca6989985c2bfbf4f72bdfa112
Remontada
10 months ago
Dems are openly rebelling. Biden's allies have lost ground as they've conceded in holding off till August. The RNC is giving cover to all these woes, but it ends tomorrow. Biden will need to walk on eggshells in the meantime and the media will be back focused on him.
Remontada
10 months ago
Dems are openly rebelling. Biden's allies have lost ground as they've conceded in holding off till August. The RNC is giving cover to all these woes, but it ends tomorrow. Biden will need to walk on eggshells in the meantime and the media will be back focused on him.
Platinum
10 months ago
Literally every source said that he will do virtual roll call due to ohio being republican biased or something. Convince me why betting yes could be a bad idea?
Remontada
10 months ago
We know for a fact Pelosi & Jeffries have not endorsed Biden. House + Senate Democrats have polls forecasting them losing seats with Biden on the ticket. This cohort will be fighting tooth and nail to delay the nomination. ALSO, Biden is back on the campaign trail - which means back in the public eye, every time he steps in front of a camera, there is risk of a gaffe, or a fall. I think YES is overpriced https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/16/pelosi-biden-2024-elections-00168767 His latest speech: https://www.c-span.org/video/?537099-1/president-biden-speaks-economic-summit#:~:text=Rep.%20Steven%20Horsford.-,President%20Biden%20speaks%20at%20the%20Vote%20to%20Live%20Action%20Fund's,summit%20with%20Rep.%20Steven%20Horsford.
Remontada
10 months ago
The vibe is off. He will wait till Thursday
Car
10 months ago
i mean he could still get up and speak. its 1 more hour left lol
Remontada
10 months ago
It's been confirmed he will be appear on stage tonight. We're betting on whether he stands on stage quietly.