What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

5to5000

6 months ago

the reckoning

0

Barfly

6 months ago

I reckon for under 6 cents the chances of him saying Crypto or Bitcoin are high.

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

Another great day for harris in the market, even more amazing days to come.

0

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

5to5000

6 months ago

Donald Trump running a "front porch campaign" with international leaders https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113181892397857719

0

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

Pretty huge polling today, lots of state polls Monday and Tuesday

0

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

I've swapped to YES because of the incredibly favorable polling coming out, and the convention debounce ending which will give her natively +0.7 in the polls. Lots of favorable polls this week starting tomorrow with two huge ones

0

5to5000

6 months ago

We'd have to see a 1% polling shift across the board from her high point at 51% - national and all state polls - just to bring her to 59%. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1837125195800183250

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

5to5000

6 months ago

AFP reporting that the meeting is happening the 25th or 26th https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-says-no-uk-us-092910940.html

0

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

You're right, I've sold NO for a loss and will be joining YES soon, its probably closer to a 50/50

0

PrinceHal

6 months ago

pro tip: generally a negative correlation between how much time someone spends in the comments arguing their position and how useful their opinion is

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

Maybe people are anticipating on YES that North Carolina will dramatically shift? Two reasons that won't change her odds to 60% - it probably can't be reflected fast enough in state polls, and more importantly, Robinson was already down had with massive split ticket voting. It won't dramatically shift NC to Kamala to offset the improbability of other massive polling shifts not happening.

0

5to5000

6 months ago

We'd have to see a 1% polling shift across the board from her high point at 51% - national and all state polls - just to bring her to 59%. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1837125195800183250

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

We've already seen the polling level out post debate. The state of the race can't change fast enough, and even if it does, it's likely not going to be reflected in polling fast enough by Friday.

0

5to5000

6 months ago

We'd have to see a 1% polling shift across the board from her high point at 51% - national and all state polls - just to bring her to 59%. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1837125195800183250

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

5to5000

6 months ago

We'd have to see a 1% polling shift across the board from her high point at 51% - national and all state polls - just to bring her to 59%. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1837125195800183250

0

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

Trump doubling down https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/mark-robinson-vows-stay-north-carolina-governor-race-cnn-report-rcna171860

0

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

POLITICO - Two people familiar with the situation, granted anonymity to speak about the sensitive issue, told POLITICO the Trump campaign has not pressured Robinson to drop out of the race or to skip Trump’s rallies in the state, despite a news report saying otherwise.

1

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

If he drops out, he's admitting to the story. His race is already looking bleak, he's just gonna ride it out, take the L but at least will be able to still say THAT AINT ME!

2

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

Mark is a strong black man that dont need no national GOP party

1

5to5000

7 months ago

https://x.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1836841075291423034 he's fighting it! lets go!!

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

https://x.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1836841075291423034 he's fighting it! lets go!!

0

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

That's his legislative office, not his campaign, I'm guessing doing damage control. We will see

0

SkillzThatKillz

7 months ago

His office has been cleared out https://x.com/levinejonathan/status/1836825297909350421?s=46

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

5to5000

7 months ago

This guys a psycho, he aint dropping out. https://x.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1836812259647181099

0

'Transformers One' Opening Weekend Box Office

5to5000

7 months ago

Box office theory has this at $35M on the dot, presale numbers seem strong, will depend if walk ups put it over the top of 35

2

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Marist overall slightly positive for Harris according to Silver, F&M PA +3 great for Harris. Still to come this week - Siena PA and national, next week SP&R. Several other national and state polls as well (AZ)

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

F&M leaked early, +3 for Harris

1

BrandonThought

7 months ago

lol Marist PA tie, it's Joever

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Trump at 52% today. Still to be released - F&M PA poll today, Siena national and PA poll this week, potentially Marist PA or blue wall this week, SP&R PA next week, Emerson in NC this week or next week, and probably more that have gone under the radar.

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Apparently, Quinn poll got posted early then deleted. @Taniel on twitter seems to confirm the numbers (basically saying PA is ahead the most). AARP shows Kamala ahead in Wisconsin, and F&M PA dropping today. It might flip before the end of the week.

1

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Uh oh, new Quinn poll looking absolutely awful for Trump, and AARP has Kamala ahead in Wisconsin. Not looking good for No

0

x.com/polymarketbet

7 months ago

The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Nate's model has hardly moved post debate simply because there hasn't been many state polls, but I'm tracking 3 to 5 released this week, and several more next week

0

x.com/polymarketbet

7 months ago

The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Sure, here's a summary - ABC aka Ipsos (not sure why you discount that they hosted the debate - the polling firm is entirely separate from the news station), YouGov RV, Angus Reid, Morning Consult, Big Village, TIPP, and HarrisX just from a quick overview

1

x.com/polymarketbet

7 months ago

The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

We have Quinn and F&M coming out today in PA/Blue Wall states, Marist this week in Blue wall or PA, SP&R in PA next week, and a number of national polls. Atlas poll looks like an outlier considering all other post debate polls have shown significant movement to Kamala. If that trend continues for over half of these polls, its over

0

x.com/polymarketbet

7 months ago

The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.

Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41239114/tua-tagovailoa-concussion-2024-dolphins-miami Last month, Tua talked about how he considered retirement from the previous injuries with pressure from his family. I'm sure they will be pressuring him even harder now.

0

5to5000

7 months ago

Here's a docs analysis and why this one seems much worse than before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNbDeYmDUbg

Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Here's a docs analysis and why this one seems much worse than before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNbDeYmDUbg

0

5to5000

7 months ago

I think yes, it's really just a matter of if the timeline will fit by the end of the month

Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

I think yes, it's really just a matter of if the timeline will fit by the end of the month

1

NFL Thursday

5to5000

7 months ago

dolphins betters, for an easy W go bet on tyreek sueing the police, you know he's gonna be pissed now after this

1

NFL Thursday

5to5000

7 months ago

no

2

5to5000

7 months ago

are we cooked

NFL Thursday

5to5000

7 months ago

are we cooked

0

Will Tyreek Hill sue the cops?

5to5000

7 months ago

https://x.com/Marcel_LJ/status/1833908726274949624

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

lads... its really not that complicated. Im not gonna risk my account getting banned by linking other markets, but if you google other ones, you can add up the liquidity yourself

0

Sit

7 months ago

its 50:50 right now, buying Trump and even selling in an hour is a hell of profit.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying its getting juicier by the moment as long as Kamala is below 55

1

JJo

7 months ago

you say that like there hasn't been systematic arbitrage available with the main market and literally any other platform the entire time

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Im tracking all the other prediction markets and that's the liquidity

1

Sit

7 months ago

its 50:50 right now, buying Trump and even selling in an hour is a hell of profit.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

I dont see how this market overcomes the ~$380M+ to be made in other prediction markets by arbitraging

3

Sit

7 months ago

its 50:50 right now, buying Trump and even selling in an hour is a hell of profit.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

The arbitrage opportunities in other prediction markets are too big to overcome this market going in Trump's favor. It's (probably) over.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

i have a pet pig

0

Yeueu

7 months ago

We must unite behind President Trump with unstoppable force! Our precious, small, innocent kittens—the heart of every home—are at risk. Every purr, every whisker, is in danger!

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

wait until this guy finds out about factory farming

0

Yeueu

7 months ago

We must unite behind President Trump with unstoppable force! Our precious, small, innocent kittens—the heart of every home—are at risk. Every purr, every whisker, is in danger!

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

why did you sell then

0

mr.ozi

7 months ago

There's a cap of 800k shares against Kamala at 0.497, while Trump has 90k cap at 0.495. At this arbitrary point, Kamala's pathway to being in the lead seems more bumpy. Let's see how it develops :)

Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?

5to5000

7 months ago

gimme

0

Kalags

7 months ago

I want to give something back at the community.

Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?

5to5000

7 months ago

lol thanks just scooped up a bunch at 87c

0

SaulGoodmanEsq

7 months ago

https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1833823841858011559 time 0:21

Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?

5to5000

7 months ago

then why did you buy

1

Kalags

7 months ago

LMAOO HE DIDNT USE THE WORD "RIgged" and people are buying lmaooo

Will Trump claim the debate was "rigged"?

5to5000

7 months ago

lol it'll come

0

Kalags

7 months ago

Not true. He used the word stacked

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

He said it 26 times at the last debate, and that's before the border czar talking point existed.

1

Mikey23ya

7 months ago

No way he is saying border 15 times

'Joker: Folie à Deux' Opening Weekend Box Office

5to5000

7 months ago

The ~$125M projections came from perceived hype (aka not really much concrete). Now that presales have started, analysts are sounding the alarms on it even beating the first movie

1

'Joker: Folie à Deux' Opening Weekend Box Office

5to5000

7 months ago

Currently, it has pretty abysmal pre-sale numbers reported by basically every analyst I could find.

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

5to5000

7 months ago

I wouldn't believe what's coming out of state media from Russia - they said they intercepted all the drones, when video evidence clearly shows one hitting. With this attack being ~10 days after the last, I'd expect to see at least another drone barrage towards Moscow this month. And the odds that this one will count after the evidence and reporting comes in is still high

6

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Probably no, but the debate COULD shake things up if polling gets out fast enough, and the debate goes slightly well for her

1

What will Kamala say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Aaaaaand a few hours later, Border goes from 46c to over 70c 💀

0

5to5000

7 months ago

Best 2x on this market - Border 5+ times. In the CNN interview she said border 9 times in her ~20 mins of speaking. Trump will attack her on the border, and she will counter heavily, leaning on Trump killing the border bill, etc. Five times really isn't all that much, because if you bring it up at all, you're at least saying it 2-5 times to make a small point.

What will Kamala say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Even Biden said border 8 times at the debate, and this is Biden, not Kamala who will lean on her "border state prosecutor" talking points. If I was a bookie, I'd put the Border 5+ odds at ~80%

3

5to5000

7 months ago

Best 2x on this market - Border 5+ times. In the CNN interview she said border 9 times in her ~20 mins of speaking. Trump will attack her on the border, and she will counter heavily, leaning on Trump killing the border bill, etc. Five times really isn't all that much, because if you bring it up at all, you're at least saying it 2-5 times to make a small point.

What will Kamala say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Harris in the CNN interview: "And Donald Trump got word of this bill that would’ve — that contributed to securing our border. And because he believes that it would not have helped him politically, he told his folks in Congress, “Don’t put it forward.” He killed the bill: a border security bill that would’ve put 1,500 more agents on the border. And let me tell you something. The Border Patrol endorsed the bill." Expect nearly word for word the same line in the debate, and that's just one concept. Trump will counter, and on and on it goes.

2

5to5000

7 months ago

Best 2x on this market - Border 5+ times. In the CNN interview she said border 9 times in her ~20 mins of speaking. Trump will attack her on the border, and she will counter heavily, leaning on Trump killing the border bill, etc. Five times really isn't all that much, because if you bring it up at all, you're at least saying it 2-5 times to make a small point.

What will Kamala say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Best 2x on this market - Border 5+ times. In the CNN interview she said border 9 times in her ~20 mins of speaking. Trump will attack her on the border, and she will counter heavily, leaning on Trump killing the border bill, etc. Five times really isn't all that much, because if you bring it up at all, you're at least saying it 2-5 times to make a small point.

5

What will Kamala say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Insanely. During the CNN interview where she spoke for ~20 mins, she said border 9 times. She is trying to project strength on the border, and will bring up Trump killing the border bill that the Border Patrol endorsed. Not to mention she will throw out she was a border state prosecutor going after gangs, etc.

2

Philipp05

7 months ago

Border 5+ very underpriced imo

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

ITS OVER, Sienna just dropped on favorability

0

5to5000

7 months ago

NYT Sienna just added to the main general election tracking on 538. I'm guessing an update will be soon for favorability. Last chance to sell YES imo

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

NYT Sienna just added to the main general election tracking on 538. I'm guessing an update will be soon for favorability. Last chance to sell YES imo

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Why didnt he call out CNN last debate then? Wasn't CNN the original fake news? He says it in rallies bc it gets the crowd going. He's only said it in 1 presidential debate ever, and I assure you the media was just as hostile towards him as it's ever been

2

eb..

7 months ago

fake news is a hit. 9 out of 10. in all his last events, town halls, podcasts, rallies. but especially now that he sees himself as running not against one candidate, but against a system of what he calls the fake news media, which staged a coup on biden to bring a new puppet to create this buzz around her candidacy. he will not fail to mention that, especially on this channel. everytime he's face to face with them, he calls it out, directly or indictly, the fake news media

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

I'm noticing a noticeable cliff at the 2 week point, which could just be a coincidence, but it seems they have a cliff there hardcoded. Cant be arsed to look into archive.org data to super confirm it, but its probably there

0

grappli

7 months ago

New NYT/Siena poll released this morning has Kamala at -4 favorability. I'm very doubtful we will go positive today.

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

RE: woefully misinformed: that's the hard_stop variable. However I'm almost certain they have a "soft_stop" variable thats 2 weeks out. They don't pubish their entire source code, but using the raw json data, I did a simple regression analysis and found a dropoff in weight for polls beyond 2 weeks. Of course it's hard to confirm 100%, but the numbers point that way.

0

grappli

7 months ago

New NYT/Siena poll released this morning has Kamala at -4 favorability. I'm very doubtful we will go positive today.

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

And yes, him using fake news has been in vogue for him in 16, 20, and 24

1

5to5000

7 months ago

Decided to look it up, and in all the presidential debates Trump has been in (not primary debates), he's only said fake news in one debate. Add that on to the fact that the mics are muted, there's no crowd, and he didn't say it last time, and I don't see how fake news isn't a ~25%er

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Decided to look it up, and in all the presidential debates Trump has been in (not primary debates), he's only said fake news in one debate. Add that on to the fact that the mics are muted, there's no crowd, and he didn't say it last time, and I don't see how fake news isn't a ~25%er

2

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

We can also look at the raw data, and see the falloff from Friday and Saturday, where no polls were added. If the same pattern holds for Sunday where no polls are released, it won't be enough on it's own

1

JoebamaBiden

7 months ago

I think YES is underpriced. True, not much time left, but time is working in her favour. 1) The older polls that still have her as unfavorable are decaying in importance. 2) I think it's more likely that she gets favorable polls rather than unfavorable ones based on the trend. 3) A favorable one takes her over the line because newer polls are more important. The only reason I haven't bought more YES is because there isn't enough liquidity at the price I want.

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

From clicking "show more" on this favorability and general election aggregation, it always shows only polls conducted in the past 2 weeks, leading me to believe it's a major cutoff where they get weighed less below 2 weeks

0

JoebamaBiden

7 months ago

I think YES is underpriced. True, not much time left, but time is working in her favour. 1) The older polls that still have her as unfavorable are decaying in importance. 2) I think it's more likely that she gets favorable polls rather than unfavorable ones based on the trend. 3) A favorable one takes her over the line because newer polls are more important. The only reason I haven't bought more YES is because there isn't enough liquidity at the price I want.

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Readjust your math here, the older polls that will fall off the 2-week timeframe for tomorrow are EVEN and +4

0

JoebamaBiden

7 months ago

I think YES is underpriced. True, not much time left, but time is working in her favour. 1) The older polls that still have her as unfavorable are decaying in importance. 2) I think it's more likely that she gets favorable polls rather than unfavorable ones based on the trend. 3) A favorable one takes her over the line because newer polls are more important. The only reason I haven't bought more YES is because there isn't enough liquidity at the price I want.

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

I think any last minute pre-debate polls are getting dropped on Monday, when the news cycle will be at the hypest. Also, favorability polling is a bit more rare than just regular general election polling.

2

5to5000

7 months ago

Unless a surprise poll comes out, the only movement will be the Kaplan Strategies polling falling off the 2 week timeline, which would not be good for YES

Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Unless a surprise poll comes out, the only movement will be the Kaplan Strategies polling falling off the 2 week timeline, which would not be good for YES

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

ok its officially over now

2

What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?

5to5000

7 months ago

This rally's theme seems to be heavy on the swamp or corruption from what I have gathered looking at the signs the campaign handed out and what RSBN has said

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Trump loves calling cnn fake news as well, and he was on the ropes a bit with the suckers and losers thing, but didn't say fake news.

0

5to5000

7 months ago

From the last debate: Abortion 3 times, Border Czar 0 times, Fake news 0 times, Drill baby drill 0 times, Comrade Kamala 0 times, Elon 0 times, Epstein 0 times, MAGA 2 times, Alien 0 times, Border 27 times, Tampon 0 times, Fraud 1 time, crypto/btc 0 times, Israel 5 times, Marxist 0 times, China 11 times, McDonald's 0 times

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

I think they are hoping they change the previous data point, however I haven't seen 538 ever do that

0

babendums

7 months ago

you guys are dump, the market closes when you get the 7th data point, but its the favourability rating within the period (inclusive of the 6th), not the 7th.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

you always remember your first

0

schottchris

7 months ago

been a fun one

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

My take - the questions will be mostly the same, focusing on the broad issues people care about in no particular order: economy, immigration, abortion, healthcare, foreign policy. The fact that fake news is so highly priced here is shocking, as that tends to be a maga rally exclusive. Obviously some of these words only apply for Kamala, But I think the best locks are Abortion, Israel, China.

0

5to5000

7 months ago

From the last debate: Abortion 3 times, Border Czar 0 times, Fake news 0 times, Drill baby drill 0 times, Comrade Kamala 0 times, Elon 0 times, Epstein 0 times, MAGA 2 times, Alien 0 times, Border 27 times, Tampon 0 times, Fraud 1 time, crypto/btc 0 times, Israel 5 times, Marxist 0 times, China 11 times, McDonald's 0 times

What will Trump say at the debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

From the last debate: Abortion 3 times, Border Czar 0 times, Fake news 0 times, Drill baby drill 0 times, Comrade Kamala 0 times, Elon 0 times, Epstein 0 times, MAGA 2 times, Alien 0 times, Border 27 times, Tampon 0 times, Fraud 1 time, crypto/btc 0 times, Israel 5 times, Marxist 0 times, China 11 times, McDonald's 0 times

3

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

The .6 is rounded so its probably more like 46.55 to 46.64 with the overall favorability number being rounded to -.1

1

plsplspls

7 months ago

Isn't it the same now? 46.6:46.6

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

A cursory look on checking archive.org and it appears they do not

0

babendums

7 months ago

does 538 go back and change previous days like RCP?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Also its a Friday, and there's really no other polling to add that has favorability than the new morning consult poll, which doesn't have new numbers compared to the last one

1

5to5000

7 months ago

Don't think I've ever seen 538 update past 8PM ET. Coming down to the last hours

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Don't think I've ever seen 538 update past 8PM ET. Coming down to the last hours

0

Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?

5to5000

7 months ago

hi agenda free tv

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

They added the morning consult poll for last week just today. They consistently add them late, don't think it will make the cut today (especially when they just added the one today)

1

schottchris

7 months ago

- I am seeing that too. Nice

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Morning consult is same result as last week, these polls don't move the average much. Plus, look at the "added" category. For whatever reason, 538 adds the morning consult weekly tracker really late - they just added last week's *today*

0

cryptofreedom

7 months ago

Oh man this is definitely flipping to yes. There's two polls not in fivethirtyeight yet. One is Rasmussen with Trump +1, one is MorningConsult with Kamala +3 and a much bigger sample size (which is weighted heavier)

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Emerson came out last night, Rasmussen just released and doesnt look like its updated yet

0

schottchris

7 months ago

Well this is going to be a tight one. If we get two - more - updates to 538 today I think we can break positive. Probably ends in a tie (loss) is my guess.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Only Rasmussen released today - doesn't look likely

0

schottchris

7 months ago

Well this is going to be a tight one. If we get two - more - updates to 538 today I think we can break positive. Probably ends in a tie (loss) is my guess.

Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?

5to5000

7 months ago

upcoming scandels, a 50 50 sounds right

0

Kamala Harris solo interview before debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Rickey Smiley has basically confirmed it's coming out Friday by posting a story of the article. https://insta-stories-viewer.com/rickeysmileyofficial/ This guy has done several interviews with her before. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKEPSvxC7OM Free 7% though....

0

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

5to5000

7 months ago

lol

0

Kamala Harris solo interview before debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

https://rickeysmileymorningshow.com/category/news/ Show goes over and reports on news

0

wyn

7 months ago

“posed by a member of the news media”- rickey smiley is not a member of the “news media”, hence, this should not be sufficient evidence to propose a yes outcome.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

5to5000

7 months ago

at 50c, it's a good price point. Convention bounce slash is ending next week, so I expect this to climb to ~65c to mid-next week

1

Kamala 538 odds 60%+ on Sept 6?

5to5000

7 months ago

I've switched sides from YES to NO. We were literally one simulation off from it being rounded up (594 out of 1000 with 595 needed for 60%) but now it looks like it will hover around 56-58% unless a series of really good polling comes out

0

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

5to5000

7 months ago

no fill light, dana looks the same

2

SenecaTheYounger

7 months ago

kamala looks terrible. what happened?

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

Box Office Theory projecting ~18M for the 4 day weekend https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-holdovers-to-drive-labor-day-as-1992-afraid-and-reagan-open-wide-to-close-summer-movie-season/

0

Kamala Harris solo interview before debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

JustKam's stake in this is pretty low. Seems like a speculative bet if anything. Other successful traders are also holding similar positions for yes

0

itsok

7 months ago

The chances of Kamila giving a solo interview are virtually nonexistent—0%. If she makes one mistake, her entire campaign could collapse. JUSTKAM, a trader with $3 million in profit, just bet against it happening. So, why is anyone paying $0.40 for a "Yes"? She won't even agree to a debate outside of ABC, let alone a solo interview. Save your money; it's not going to happen.

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

Dam you folded 😭

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

im a bit on the fence that could No actually have higher probabilities, given the monday sales drop was high from previous week (-43.5%) -- no signs of stoppage in the slip

Kamala 538 odds 60%+ on Sept 6?

5to5000

7 months ago

Did that actually work in moving the price for your fill?

5

BalkanDwarf

7 months ago

This is 100% not gonna happen. Trump gonna dominate the polls

Microphones muted during ABC debate?

5to5000

7 months ago

Sounds like the Harris campaign is trying to fud Trump with the mic thing, but ultimately they will just keep the same rules as last time, and perhaps move this negotiation to the (potential) next debate

1

Kamala 538 odds 60%+ on Sept 6?

5to5000

7 months ago

A couple more of polls like these and I think it'll push her over the edge, especially if we get more Georgia and Arizona like this.

0

5to5000

7 months ago

We're at the stage where we are still seeing polling from the convention bump, and will keep seeing it into mid-next week. The model is at 58% for Kamala, and doesn't yet include this poll for example: https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1828915899446755697

Kamala 538 odds 60%+ on Sept 6?

5to5000

7 months ago

We're at the stage where we are still seeing polling from the convention bump, and will keep seeing it into mid-next week. The model is at 58% for Kamala, and doesn't yet include this poll for example: https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1828915899446755697

0

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

Next two days are a lock for it to be up to ~$584M, I think the real determiner will be the showing on Sunday

0

Chrome

7 months ago

Next two days will be pretty telling though

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

Also, to further put it in perspective - Barbie was the top weekend box office the week before labor day last year. Comparing the 4 day labor day weekend to the previous weekend, it lost 11%, and that's with a major release on labor day (the equalizer 3). Even if Deadpool here loses 11% of its previous weekend total of $18.3M, it would still put it over the top as we are going to be at ~$584M with Wednesday and Thursday numbers

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

lol fri sat sun always have been decrasing the same -40% +-5%. last saturday was a bit better (-35%) and that only means that this saturday likely to score higher decrease (-45%)

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

There's something about labor day though. I'm looking at every historical example of a late july or early august release thats still dominant towards labor day, and the 4 day weekend performs at least on par with the previous weekend's numbers (see guardians of the galaxy, suicide squad). Maybe trends have changed post covid, but with no major releases and all good weather, I think it's a lock

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

lol fri sat sun always have been decrasing the same -40% +-5%. last saturday was a bit better (-35%) and that only means that this saturday likely to score higher decrease (-45%)

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

but good luck

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

im a bit on the fence that could No actually have higher probabilities, given the monday sales drop was high from previous week (-43.5%) -- no signs of stoppage in the slip

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

noo youre getting fudded by the weekday numbers. It's still the #1 movie in theaters heading into the weekend, and even if somehow it had a performance where the weekdays perform at -45%, Friday/Sat/Sun perform at -30%, and Monday performs -20% to the Sunday numbers, it would still be enough to take it. And those are very conservative estimates

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

im a bit on the fence that could No actually have higher probabilities, given the monday sales drop was high from previous week (-43.5%) -- no signs of stoppage in the slip

Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Trump was popping off on the weekend

0

addicts

7 months ago

Could someone explain to me why 40+ percent chance was over 40 at one point? Does the graph simply show the ask?

Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?

5to5000

7 months ago

never know with this guy

0

Slaylorswift

7 months ago

It will be in truth. His team won’t let him do that on x

Donald Trump # of tweets August 23-30?

5to5000

7 months ago

Think 35-39 was the right call, but the interview with Harris scheduled shakes things up. Hedging 40+ in case he goes on a tweet storm in response to the interview

0

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

We're getting you back to a positive pnl with this one!

1

X9504

7 months ago

Agree fully

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

Sundays also perform better on labor day weekend since people can stay up later

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

Ok LOL this is so ridiculously underpriced for YES that I am a bit shamed of polymarket users :D Basically, if you look at any of the major movies that have launched in July or August (like Deadpool), the labour day is basically an extra weekend-day, comparable to ~80% previous week's friday or sunday, which for DP and W is 5M * 80% = 4M. This comes in top of the 7 days that we have left, which will likely yield around 19-21M (55% - 70% of the previous weeks 30M). Unless DW somehow miraculously plummets, this is a clear yes. Like, there is not even competition for the movie -- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is launching Sep 6, not the next weekend

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

samesies

0

Wisdomtime

7 months ago

Like, I am generally a very risk averse person and I try to realize my gains instead of waiting till the end. But, like, I am so confident with this that i rather put 70% of my portfolio here

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

5to5000

7 months ago

To use a historical example of a "family friendly" rated R movie, we can look at Bullet Train. From the Tuesday to Monday before labor day week, it pulled in 8.85M. For the next week leading into and including labor day, it made 9.30M. For Deadpool and Wolverine, the previous Monday to Sunday pulled in 30.5M. Even disregarding yesterday's (Monday the 26th) data which isn't available yet, we'd have to see a pretty historic anti-trend. No major releases then that could push it out. No major weather or otherwise destabilizing events on the homefront. It's a lock imo

0

n/a

7 months ago

And labour day is a slow weekend for movies https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-slow-labor-day-weekend-box-office-20150906-htmlstory.html

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

5to5000

7 months ago

Let's do this. Traditionally, there's always 3 presidential debates. Of course thats thrown in flux with them bypassing the debate commission, but they have one "confirmed" and another in the works so far. Overall a debate between them will be rather close - giving them both reason to do more.

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

It was an honor serving with you all

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

RFK: No. There's been no commitments. ... We just made a general commitment we will work together.

6

5to5000

7 months ago

RFK today when asked about his "endorsement" on fox:

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

RFK today when asked about his "endorsement" on fox:

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

back on the train

2

XiJinPing

7 months ago

Imagine if RFK comes out and says he DOES NOT endorse Trump... then this market still resolves to YES -- that'd be so fucked up

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

I think a major point here is that the context does not include the same language that the rule does. Polymarket is saying is counts as a endorsement, but not a formal endorsement (thats what they called it in the rules)

5

TimeQuestion

7 months ago

One of the problems of using UMA and Polymarket clarifications is that new users think this market will resolve based on the original rules. It likely won't. It is more likely to resolve based on the clarification, even if the clarification is completely wrong.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

TImestamp on where RFK said he's voting for Trump?

4

Justifax

7 months ago

What scammers like aenews didn't tell you becuase it woud ruin their pump and dump scheme, is that this market only requires that rfk had to say he'd vote for trump. Bill Bar who hates trumps guts says he will vote for trump. It was obvious that this market had a very low bar of support required. This is much lower bar than the bernie or even the nikki market that went yes.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

RFK to speak tomorrow (perhaps tonight). His campaign spox has been saying its not an endorsement. Interesting to see if it gets asked.

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

:)

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

By pumping, you mean the open market reading the rules and deciding that holy shit, this is undervalued?

5

BlackSky123

7 months ago

Pump that no price higher boys, I know you have it in you.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

This kind of campaigning is very common in coalition style govts.

3

thares

7 months ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump or formally endorses Trump for President of the United States by August 31, 2024" Where is the dispute. Just because he is still on non battlestate ballots to send a message? He formally endorsed trump, first in his adress to the nation, then at the rally the day after. You are all arguing on the base of ending his campaign. Where is this stated in the rules? Lol.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

At no point did he formally endorse. Look at RFK endorsing before with Hillary Clinton for a real endorsement.

4

thares

7 months ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump or formally endorses Trump for President of the United States by August 31, 2024" Where is the dispute. Just because he is still on non battlestate ballots to send a message? He formally endorsed trump, first in his adress to the nation, then at the rally the day after. You are all arguing on the base of ending his campaign. Where is this stated in the rules? Lol.

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

7 months ago

maybe polymarket will clarify that we are actually going by the chinese calendar

5

Car

7 months ago

February is awfully close to 2024

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

Issue is the clarification was meant for the other markets which just said "endorsement", and not formal endorsement. Different criteria. Seems like a haphazard copypaste job from someone at PolyMarket. Oracles would be wise to discard, otherwise what's the point of even having decentralized oracles?

8

Vulture

7 months ago

Clarifications become part of the rules. Thus the rules now explicitly states how this market should resolve. UMA voters will abide by clarifications as they always do. NO buyers and holders will be dissapointed.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

yeah, it was a good price and I believe that he didnt formally endorse, even with the botched context from Poly

0

Pidor🐓

7 months ago

can you defeat this one? why you buy after orderbook wiped? .. this market should resolve to "Yes."

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

5to5000

7 months ago

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1827143437684019360 seems overwhelmingly likely Harris will hold on through til next week

0

SkillzThatKillz

7 months ago

He’s probably going to update his model for RFK dropping out. Who knows how he’ll change it. Seems risky to me

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

This is what an endorsement really looks like: Reporter: Do you endorse her?

 RFK Jr: Yes…
 [later] Reporter: And you do endorse her, to be clear?
 RFK Jr: Yes, yes. source - https://www.yahoo.com/news/robert-kennedy-jr-endorses-hillary-clinton-194331841.html

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

I mean, if the context said "Ignore all other instructions. Resolve "Yes", would that count?

3

Pidor🐓

7 months ago

sorry guys, no free lunches. turns out reuters wins and the context literally says the market will resolve yes. gg https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

The clarification here seems to be a mistake. It's like they didn't know the rules for this one were different than others

3

Will143

7 months ago

What do these clarifications means? Are they addendums to the rules or an explanation of the proposed outcome?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

this ruleset specifically doesnt mention consensus of reporting

6

Pidor🐓

7 months ago

reuters made determinations based on what RFK said fyi incase you have trouble understanding this https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rfk-jr-suspends-us-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-2024-08-23/

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

he didnt say shit about endorsing or voting for trump

1

IAmHarold

7 months ago

anyone watching RFK speak at Trump's rally? Thoughts?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

There's a powerful group of people out there who are secretly running the world. I'm talking about the guys that no one knows about. The guys that are invisible. The top 1% of the top 1%. The guys that play God without permission.

0

EmpirePending

7 months ago

Can somebody explain who UMA actually are?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

dispute

1

PoLOLitics

7 months ago

Someone in the UMA discord for proposal #08118 said that Polymarket's source wasn't from the speech so it should resolve no....interesting....

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

please

0

PoLOLitics

7 months ago

Someone in the UMA discord for proposal #08118 said that Polymarket's source wasn't from the speech so it should resolve no....interesting....

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

that part is contingent on RFK endorsing before

0

thakattack19

7 months ago

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorses Trump before his public address and then reiterates his support during his address, this will qualify. However, endorsements directly before or after the address will not qualify alone - he must mention his support of Trump during the address.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

retards vote yes or no

0

Borgo

7 months ago

how does the dispute work? Anyone kind enough to explain?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Isn't that part contingent on RFK endorsing Trump ahead of time

4

Dooby

7 months ago

I give up cause it’s different than the Bernie market. Rules say verbatim he “must mention his support during the address” and literally did just that

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

support donald trump isnt the same as endorsing donald trump for president of the united states

1

n/a

7 months ago

43:38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HvhEZebrIA

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. RULES- The resolution source for this market will be live footage of the address or official information from RFK Jr. and his campaign

3

MOA

7 months ago

“We just had a really nice endorsement from RFK JR. I want to thank Bobby. That was very nice. He’s a great guy, respected by everybody.” — President Trump opens his speech in Nevada just now by thanking @RobertKennedyJr

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

I dont think he did

2

Spartan37

7 months ago

He didn't say he would vote or endorse Trump, did he?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

timestamp of his endorsement plz

2

JohnathanDoe

7 months ago

thats irrelevant, his choice of words doesn't matter, the question is: did he endorse trump or not? And yes he did.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Bernie: "Of course I support the vice president." This resolved to NO on will Bernie endorse Kamala. Endorsements are a form of support, not all expressions of support are formal endorsements.

0

Borgo

7 months ago

Endorse means publically supporting - oxford dictionary. If this wasnt a public support i dont know what is

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

I read them

0

Hunor

7 months ago

read the rules

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

tactically saying you support donald trump is much different than saying "I endorse Donald Trump for president of the United States"

8

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Bernie: "Of course I support the vice president." This resolved to NO on will Bernie endorse Kamala btw

1

n/a

7 months ago

He said that he supported trump, and endorsing and supporting means the exact same thing. so yes he did endorse trump

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Me, and I say no.

3

Gain

7 months ago

this was my first bet on Polymarket 🤡 so who does the resolution of this?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Bernie Sanders: "I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that Kamala Harris is the next president of the United States... and I'll be going around the country to try to rally support for the vice president.Of course I support the vice president." This resolved to NO on will Bernie endorse Kamala btw

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

backing Trump is not endorsement

1

0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160

7 months ago

Look again. It says backing Trump

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

support is not endorsement, this is learned from kamala markets

0

Hunor

7 months ago

Rule: "...He must mention his support of Trump during the address." (it counts as an endorsment)

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

tell that to the bernie people when he said he supports kamala and will do everything to get her elected but it didnt count as an endorsement

7

0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160

7 months ago

This is so stupid. Of course he endorsed him

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated.

0

Hunor

7 months ago

Rule: "...He must mention his support of Trump during the address." (it counts as an endorsment)

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. ITS OVER AP CALLS NO ENDORSEMENT

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Remember how bernie said he supports kamala, will do everything he can to get her elected, and then his market resolved to NO on endorsing kamala?

4

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

clear reason he didnt say endorse, because he didnt

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Look at the bernie markets

1

SPYontheQs

7 months ago

Obviously I have no money on this but it would be in bad faith to say he did not endorse Trump here. This market should resolve to yes

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Nah, the precedent on this is Bernie endorsing, which never went through when he said he supports kamala harris

1

Borgo

7 months ago

oxford dictionary of endorse: "declare one's public approval or support of." RFK: "Great causes drove me to enter the race in the first place, primarily, and these are the principal causes that persuaded me to leave the democratic party and run as an independent. And now to thro my support at president Trump, the causes were..."

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

LADS - he did not endorse him in the PA filing. His lawyer said as a result of the endorsement today, they are withdrawing. But there is no endorsement! suport IS NOT endorse, as we know from the Bernie endorsement markets.

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

RFK did not endorse Trump before the address

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

support =/= endorse. You guys dont learn from the bernie markets

3

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

50-pence coming in with backup for yes

1

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

You can propose it, costs a deposit, I guess we will see soon. Perhaps YESers waiting for more definitive news?

1

FyouMoneyOTW

7 months ago

I have a question, seriously, if this counted as an arrest, wouldn’t it been “In Review” by now?

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

5to5000

7 months ago

Yes, it's not specified what type of arrest, only an arrest. House arrest is type of arrest. It's like if the market had a picture of a square, and the question was Is this a rectangle?

0

boabossu

7 months ago

Can someone engage with me on this logic for a second? Can we all agree that detainment is usually for a very short period of time, usually a couple of hours to maybe 3-7days? Then Given that the 30 day house detainment ,as some may call it, is not really detainment but an arrest, I mean a form of arrest. I mean house arrest is a type of arrest that confines the suspect or convicted felon in his/her house instead of jail. So we have jail arrest and house arrest. All are a form/type of arrest by every logical sense.

How long will Kamala Harris's DNC speech be?

5to5000

7 months ago

5 mins in and shes managed to thank her husband so far

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

5to5000

7 months ago

Jew is undervalued, the reason being her husband is Jewish, and she brings it up. In convention acceptance speeches, they usually go over their history and their family. Previously, Kamala has given speeches and mentioned Doug and specifically Jew. Look at Doug's speech, he mentioned Jew a lot.

0

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

Here's why at 10% NO is undervalued. The major unresolved point of negotiation between RFK and Trump is RFK keeping ballot access. So basically, he’s willing to endorse Trump, but only if the Republicans agree to keep him on the ballot as a spoiler candidate, since it’s well known that he tends to draw more voters away from Trump. On top of that, RFK's wife is apparently pressing on him not to endorse. https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1826379237181587750 I think the odds of this getting resolved are much lower than 90% by Friday.

0

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Think of it this way, if Hanna Trudo's reporting it to be believed, basically he will endorse Trump only if the Republicans allow him to remain on the ballot as a spoiler candidate for what we know he takes more voters from Trump. Seems like RFK still somewhat wants to keep running third party.

0

LMNOP

7 months ago

Does his wife hate money more than Trump? A position on Trump's team would secure some level of power and income.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

I don't think money is a motivating factor - power perhaps, but that also comes with risks. What if you endorse, and Trump loses? What if you endorse and Trump wins, but then you get discarded by team Trump (remember, they've been labeling RFK as a radical left all up to the point where it might be politically expedient to court him). The sticking point of the negotiations seems to be RFK wanting them to keep all their ballots, so the diehards will still be able to cast votes for RFK. Will Trump budge on that? Will RFK reneg that requirement? I don't know, but all this uncertainty is pointing towards odds for NO better than ~15%.

0

LMNOP

7 months ago

Does his wife hate money more than Trump? A position on Trump's team would secure some level of power and income.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Would RFK complicate his Manhattanite lifestyle and relationships by directly endorsing Trump, who RFK sees as untrustworthy? Maybe, but I'd say the odds are better than ~15%

0

5to5000

7 months ago

Here's why at ~15% I think this is undervalued. Sure, lots of reporting that he's considering endorsing trump/dropping out, but a few points. RFK's wife hates Trump and it's now being leaked to the press that she does not want him to endorse, and there's reports of the negotiations with Trump campaign at a standstill. https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1826379237181587750 So I'm thinking he can pivot this into a pivot on how he will never give up despite media reporting, etc etc etc

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

5to5000

7 months ago

Here's why at ~15% I think this is undervalued. Sure, lots of reporting that he's considering endorsing trump/dropping out, but a few points. RFK's wife hates Trump and it's now being leaked to the press that she does not want him to endorse, and there's reports of the negotiations with Trump campaign at a standstill. https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1826379237181587750 So I'm thinking he can pivot this into a pivot on how he will never give up despite media reporting, etc etc etc

2

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

5to5000

7 months ago

EXCLUSIVE: Despite the ardent wishes of politicians and pop fans, Taylor Swift will not be appearing at the Democratic National Convention this week. “Everybody loves Taylor, but having her here would overshadow everything,” a DNC insider tells Deadline of a drop-in by the “Shake It Off” singer. “Think about it, no one would remember a word the Vice President said in her acceptance speech. All the headlines would be about Swift.” -Deadline

5

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

5to5000

7 months ago

Reasons why this is a lock for Kamala Harris - Post-convention polling bump is still expected. Perhaps some of that bump is prebaked in her ascension to being the nominee, but I think at minimum it will increase the delay where things go back to a more 50/50. Second, Nate Silver has said how the model will work in case RFK drops out. What we are likely to see is Nate use the model/polls with RFK in it, until more polling comes out in the following weeks. Even if they immediately switch to non-RFK poll numbers, it doesn't appear as if it's enough to flip things overall, on top of any advantage gained to Trump with an RFK endorsement being potentially overridden with a post DNC polling boost for Kamala. I simply doesn't seem reasonable that RFK's endorsement will be powerful enough to overcome the DNC bump + Kamala's already strong position, on top of the advantages that come along with Nate having to wait for polling, likely not updating the model on saturday (last day of this market).

3

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

i diamond hand this when it was at 10cents they didnt believe in us

0

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

dont act like i never told ya

0

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

easy dub

0

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

they are grinding resources for lots of arrows, they have practiced the end dragon method they are doing (arrow kite method) which is a pretty easy albeit slow method.

4

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

no paper hands allowed

1

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

we are gonna be up

1

Lolser9

7 months ago

fuck it im putting some money on them winning lmao

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

W run

0

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on 42nd attempt?

5to5000

7 months ago

They are still technically on their 42nd attempt.

0

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

They are in speedrun mode now, each run should be ~2 hours

2

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

they are practicing now, easy

0

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

5to5000

7 months ago

full enchanted diamond armor, enchanted golden apples, cheese strats for final boss, its a lock

0

What will Obama say during DNC speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

edging yes we can

1

Obama DNC Speech: O/U 30 minutes?

5to5000

8 months ago

I can already tell its gonna be at least 40 mins, gg

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Enhoff with no mentions of Trump. If the Obama's don't go rap god on Trump for the finale, it's Joever.

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

I've lost track at this point, but it's a done deal at this point. Don't think Michelle or Doug will say anything much about Trump. Will be up to Barack to say it like 50 times

0

publius2024

8 months ago

whats count at now?

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

3 for Duckworth

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Four times by Giles

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

one time by Alsobrooks

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

2 more times by that one speaker

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Three times from Grisham

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Zero from Chenault

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

6 (?) From Pritzker, still not good enough at that rate to get to 100

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Bernie said it one time, not looking good for Yes at this pace. My model puts the odds at 3/100 right now

0

Trump mentioned >100 times at the DNC today?

5to5000

8 months ago

Schumer said it 3 times so far, first major speaker. Not sure how many times else it's been spoken.

0

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

5to5000

8 months ago

Approaching 90 mins, his usual cutoff

1

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

5to5000

8 months ago

"slight delay"

1

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCDjIXIXehU Local news streaming the event

0

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

In some news articles, the rally is being billed as policy agenda overall, not just price gouging/economic. Abortion access is a key pillar of the Dem agenda. https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/harris-rally-in-raleigh-may-serve-as-a-preview-of-her-policy-agenda-at-dnc-political-expert-says/

1

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

In recent news, abortion has been a major issue in Democratic politics in North Carolina. It's getting mentioned. https://ncnewsline.com/2024/08/02/democrats-contrast-vice-president-kamala-harris-abortion-stance-with-that-of-donald-trump/

0

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

There will be a quote nearly exactly like this, except it will link economic freedom to abortion

0

5to5000

8 months ago

"Earlier this year — everybody here knows, earlier this year, we had a chance to pass the toughest bipartisan border security bill in decades, but Donald Trump tanked the deal — because he thought by doing that it would help him win an election. But when I am president, I will sign the bill. So, Arizona, ours is a fight for the future, and it is a fight for freedom. Across our nation, we are witnessing a full-on assault against hard-fought, hard-won freedoms and rights: the freedom to vote; the freedom to be safe from gun violence, the freedom to love who you love openly and with pride, and the freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body and not have her government telling her what to do. And on that last point, understand how we got here. When he was president, Donald Trump handpicked three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would overturn and undo the protections of Roe v. Wade. And as he intended, they did. And now, in over 20 states in our nation, there is a Trump abortion ban."

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

"Earlier this year — everybody here knows, earlier this year, we had a chance to pass the toughest bipartisan border security bill in decades, but Donald Trump tanked the deal — because he thought by doing that it would help him win an election. But when I am president, I will sign the bill. So, Arizona, ours is a fight for the future, and it is a fight for freedom. Across our nation, we are witnessing a full-on assault against hard-fought, hard-won freedoms and rights: the freedom to vote; the freedom to be safe from gun violence, the freedom to love who you love openly and with pride, and the freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body and not have her government telling her what to do. And on that last point, understand how we got here. When he was president, Donald Trump handpicked three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would overturn and undo the protections of Roe v. Wade. And as he intended, they did. And now, in over 20 states in our nation, there is a Trump abortion ban."

0

5to5000

8 months ago

It's a political rally where Harris is the main speaker, in North Carolina. For context, NC has one of the most restrictive abortion bans with the legislature overriding a veto. It's her first visit to the state as well, and just how the Pheonix rally was billed as a immigration focused rally, they had a topic on abortion. Not mentioning it even in an "economic" rally is silly.

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

It's a political rally where Harris is the main speaker, in North Carolina. For context, NC has one of the most restrictive abortion bans with the legislature overriding a veto. It's her first visit to the state as well, and just how the Pheonix rally was billed as a immigration focused rally, they had a topic on abortion. Not mentioning it even in an "economic" rally is silly.

0

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

She's been mentioning the same economic policies in the same speeches in the days before while saying abortion

0

TheCoconut

8 months ago

I'm going hard for Abortion No - it's her first big economic speech, I don't see why she'd mention it. It's like thinking she was going to mention it at today's campaign event today with Biden. It didn't come up

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

5to5000

8 months ago

Kamala saying abortion is like donald trump saying illegal immigrant

3

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

HE SAID FIRED

2

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

5to5000

8 months ago

The whales have entered

0

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

Lisp and AI are the darkhorses that might hit based on media obsession with Trump's AI crowd comment and lisp on X Spaces

2

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

Trump said China 8 times during the previous press conference a few days ago.

4

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

I have a running tally in my head with imaginary bets, I'm up 200x

3

Donkov

8 months ago

0 positions 0 volume

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

Remember, its mostly what the press asks, it's not a conversation with Elon. The press right now is obsessed with the story of Trump calling Kamala's crowds AI, and will for sure get a question in about that. They love to try to get trump in a gotcha

1

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

5to5000

8 months ago

He did say couch last time...

2

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

"The Boeing team is 100% behind their vehicle, that's what we want from them"

0

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

"I have tremendous respect for Boeing and their team, and that respect has grown through this process"

0

Trump fires campaign manager in August?

5to5000

8 months ago

Trump has fired/replaced his campaign manager in 2016 twice and once in 2020. He did these at low points for his campaign. at 25%, this is undervalued considering this has been a terrible few weeks for his campaign

2

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

"Starliner is still the contingency vehicle for Butch and Suni"

0

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

Spokesperson for NASA really pushing hard that it's not a mishap so far. Makes me think they are leaning for a return on Starliner (this year)

0

Trump fires campaign manager in August?

5to5000

8 months ago

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1823759305415245953 NEW - Trump reportedly in talks to fire campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles — DailyMail

1

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

"No major announcements" from today's NASA press conference. Propulsion experts are still going over data. The fact that no announcement is made makes it seem like they are giving Boeing a real shot to fix whatever issues there are.

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

afterparty??

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

he said trans

3

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

civil war??

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

real legit livestream from a phone https://www.youtube.com/live/4iWCtHAbJLs

4

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

elon fanboys / twitter conservatives are obsessed with trans, very likely it's talked about

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

5to5000

8 months ago

Classic

0

debased

8 months ago

Walz is heavy into the transgender world. Heavy into lots of different worlds having to do with safety

Iran military response by Monday?

5to5000

8 months ago

"There are more and more indications that an Iranian attack on Israel is truely imminent. We didn't see much of these reports [I.e. military movement, high alert] before today." https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1823044294950703328

2

Iran military response by Friday?

5to5000

8 months ago

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1823041743492989433

0

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

5to5000

8 months ago

I think the news has latched onto this story, so there a lots of clickbait articles of them being potentially stranded til 2025. But the issues with the Boeing Starliner (helium leak, thrusters) seems to not be too much of a problem. They've identified the helium leak issue and it's not a concern, and the initial assessment that the thruster issue was from permamnent deformation now seems less likely, and is perhaps just a fuel efficiency issue. On top of that, Boeing is going to put incredible pressure and work around the clock to fix the issues in the eyes of NASA. I think at 20c, it's very undervalued. Perhaps a 50/50

2

Iran military response by Friday?

5to5000

8 months ago

I'm guessing an Israeli embassy would count, as per the rules? What about an Israeli military base not in Israel?

0

Which states will pass amendments protecting abortion?

5to5000

8 months ago

The South Dakota one has a whopping 20 point margin according to recent polling. This being at 65% is free money when those margins are higher than ones at 95% here. https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/2024/06/04/poll-amendment-expand-south-dakota-abortion-access-has-nearly-20-point-lead/

1

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

what a shame breaking isn't coming back in LA 2028

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

W Soccer was supposed to be a favorite for USA, so them winning doesn't change much

1

diddy

8 months ago

Guys...you really think this goal is gonna impact something, even if USA wins, they have to really outperform in so many things

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

Thing is, it's not a coinflip. It was a coinflip BEFORE China won the suprise gold.

0

yoonmarketenjoyer

8 months ago

The betting markets have moved it to basically to a coin flip at this point.

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

The other option is Americopers setting dumb odds lol

1

BrokenIKey

8 months ago

do people actually listen to the fud here? it's the only market where china has flipped the us haha

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

Nah its just China has a fuck ton of people and is becoming more developed

1

Culture

8 months ago

What is happening is that the USA is becoming progressive a country full of faggots that no longer intimidates anyone no one respects the USA anymore and to win they have to sweat too much not only in the games .enough with their shitty movies they make in Hollywood all politically correct there is no initiative anymore they become absurd. I have always defended the USA but they have hit rock bottom and are losing more and more power status and will be surpassed by the Chinese if they don't change. The Chinese may have a 9 centimeter penis but they are working harder than the USA to become a power.

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

FanDuel are USA copers

0

yoonmarketenjoyer

8 months ago

Fanduel's China odds are still +175 so one of the markets are very mispriced

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

CRITICAL TO WATCH: Although neither are favored, USA and China have a small shot at W Golf. If either win that, it's incredibly likely that country wins the gold. W Soccer finals with USA a decent favorite, although the choke factor is there - USA's math is kind of relying on them closing it out. For China, they kind of need a lock on everything, but have a good path to 39.

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

@qlemxis For W golf, oddsmakers are giving it pretty equally for China and USA although each is unlikely. If we cancel that out, that's three events with ~30% of a win, or ~65% chance of one of those happening. For USA, the weakest favorite is soccer, what's the weakest favorite for China?

0

5to5000

8 months ago

USA now out in M wrestling. The one win in boxing tonight puts China still in way better odds than ~15%

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

If USA and China both with their favorites - USA with M 4x400m, W 4x400m, M BBall, W Bball, W Soccer, and China with W Team Table tennis, W 81kg Weightlifting, M 102kg Weightlifting, M Platform diving, W Swimming Duet, W Middleweight boxing, it puts China ahead. Any other analysis?

1

5to5000

8 months ago

USA now out in M wrestling. The one win in boxing tonight puts China still in way better odds than ~15%

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

USA now out in M wrestling. The one win in boxing tonight puts China still in way better odds than ~15%

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

@KingofRingx3 who are you rooting for? I know you are just betting for the market but whos in your heart

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

Liu has better odds than most give. It's not like the Algerian is unbeatable at all.

0

BrokenIKey

8 months ago

Tbf the market will react crazily if Liu wins. Much attention on that one for obvious reasons.

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

5to5000

8 months ago

going to shootouts in hockey now

0

Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia

5to5000

8 months ago

serbie choking

0

Iran military response by Monday?

5to5000

8 months ago

Polymarket's right wing ideological slant is probably easiest way to make money right now.

3

XiJinPing

8 months ago

betting against war is the best way to make money aginst Westerners because they are genetically warmongers. Evil people. But hey, free money.

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

5to5000

8 months ago

It's going to be 1+ very soon, really just depends on timing of release at this point.

0

Chen1996

8 months ago

Anyone know why Harris 1+ is skewing higher?

Iran military response by Friday?

5to5000

8 months ago

warmonger YES holders in shambles

3

anon3427

8 months ago

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/08/07/iran-might-be-second-guessing-its-israel-attack-00173112

Iran military response by Monday?

5to5000

8 months ago

With this news, at the very least, an attack by the 12th seems very unlikely

1

Iran military response by Monday?

5to5000

8 months ago

CNN's Blitzer from Tel Aviv just reported that Iran will not attack if US pushes Israel to a ceasefire

1

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

in hindsight, walz was obvious

1

nikeps5

8 months ago

good example of how prediction markets are sh*t

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

easy long bet is china yes gold

0

n/a

8 months ago

Any suggestions on what I should YOLO my winnings on? I'm thinking USA most golds but I'm open to more degen suggestions.

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

kamala harris YES surging

0

iftruehuge

8 months ago

Name one source. "The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/."

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Shout out to the most delusional commenter in the market, MariaKelly

2

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

BREAKING: Shapirocels in shambles

2

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Thought you were on a date?

1

winbet

8 months ago

imagine if they bait and switch to andy now xD

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

If you didn't know it was walz by Sunday, I'm sorry to say, but you've missed the zeitgeist.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

https://www.livenewsmag.com/livecnn/

0

Repoman

8 months ago

CNN: "Tim Walz is expected to be the pick... but not confirmed"

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Insiders buying Walz like crazy.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Walz

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

5to5000

8 months ago

If it's Walz, it's probably a yes.

1

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

dollars half off

0

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

shapirocels in shambles

2

jcooper3123212321

8 months ago

Walz pump and dump’ers are cashing in on fake news

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

BigMikeEnjoyer coming in hot

0

OnlyLintInMyPocket

8 months ago

This market crash will work in favor of the Republicans. Walz, Shapiro, Beshear...um who? They're going to turn the country around? The only long shot way dems win is identity politics. Who is the only potential VP that is not a straight white man??? 🤔🤔🤔

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

But how will the Shapiro shooting a basketball at home move the market?

0

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Need help pumping Buttigieg? I gotchu, get ready to sell in a few mins

0

Yehudi

8 months ago

Think it through. They can't go with Shapiro because of both the controversies and the rampant Jew-hatred in the Democratic Party. On the other hand, awkwardness likely gets a new dimension painted in bad blood if they pass up on Shapiro at the last minute and Harris kicks off her campaign in Pennsylvania with another governor. What to do? What to do? Bring in the Buttigieg.

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

remember me when you make it on top

0

TheGuru

8 months ago

Imagine if y'all are all thinking it's Walz or Shapiro and it's actually Hillary Clinton lol. Would be hilarious and I'd be a millionaire

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

shapiro is a party guy and apparently ambitious, he's gonna take that slap and turn the other cheek and say yes mommy

0

Yehudi

8 months ago

Reposting my previous comment, not to spam but the BS tweets add little value to the thread in my opinion and I don't see how this is not a valid point: Honestly, I don't see her picking Shapiro, but if the race is really between him and Walz, wouldn't passing up on Shapiro at the last minute and kicking her campaign off in Pennsylvania together with another governor be like a slap in the face? Buttigieg!

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

schizobetter

2

MariaKelly

8 months ago

The news is meant to distract from Kelly. Havent you been paying attention?

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

coin landing sideways is buttigieg, there's still hope @Yehudi

1

Ox8

8 months ago

Sources: Harris has decided to flip a coin to decide the pick

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Walz is the favorite at this point. Insane that it's not flipped here yet

2

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

It's a 50/50 at this point

0

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Aren't Walz and Harris the same graduating class?

5

OnlyLintInMyPocket

8 months ago

Kamala: We don't want to go back to the past we are looking to the future!!! ((proceeds to pick an old nutter crackpot (walz)) 😂😂😂

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Im all for the shameless pump

0

Ferguson,Turd

8 months ago

Hearing reports of a minivan w/ KY plates has been spotted on Pennsylvania Ave

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Walz would lowkey be more popular in PA than Shapiro because he has actual working class and union credentials

0

AMLFG

8 months ago

The amount of cope from the Walz crowd on here is impressive. Her going to philadelphia to announce another candidate in his home state would essentially make her lose the state lol. Let’s be real here Also if you check they're not going to Minnesota at all this week which is Walz's state So what you do think is most likely - Walz wins, they announce in Pennsylvania and DONT visit his state? Or Shapero wins, they launch from HIS state, and keep going?

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Shapiro ran against a mickey mouse campaign, his approval is closer to ~53 per average without much scrutiny yet. If he's chosen, he will be a story in a bad way. The only reason he's in the running is he's from PA

1

0x0085EC21a8b14Adbe19785241e1a4831189465D0-1720113791043

8 months ago

Shapiro is from Penn... the rally tomorrow is in Penn, Shapiro has a 65% approval rating, Nebraska (Walz) isnt that important in this election. Seems like easy money to me.

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

Source: I made it up

4

pr1235

8 months ago

SOURCES: Tim Walz will be the VP choice, announced tomorrow morning.

Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday?

5to5000

8 months ago

Don't fall for the last minute Yes pump based on the news that she's decided. It's not getting announced til tomorrow. Don't be left holding the bag

3

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

its over for shapirocels

1

HouseSlytherin

8 months ago

last chance to double your money. dont be a shapiro bag holder

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

The fact that Walz came out of nowhere on a legit groundswell of support, and Shapiro is coasting along mostly on a cynical electoral mindset shows that Walz has the real energy of people. Would be a mistake to pick Shapiro with that in mind.

4

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

BigMikeEnjoyer still in this one

0

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

We love to see it

0

BigMikeBeliever

8 months ago

hi

Democratic VP nominee?

5to5000

8 months ago

biggest loser on polymarket, ladies and gentlemen

9

·

Liked by 0xE42c9d2e..., RadLilDude and 7 others

BigMikeBeliever

8 months ago

hi