#60
Rank
293
Comments
141
Likes Received
156
Likes Given
What will Trump say during Colorado rally?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
🚨🚨 MASSIVE URGENCY! 🚨🚨 Your ENTIRE BET IS IN JEOPARDY! The Polymarket/UMA showdown is about to EXPLODE, and the truth about their so-called "dispute resolution" is about to be REVEALED. DON'T BE LEFT IN THE DARK! Join the FIGHT NOW and demand transparency. EVERYONE is welcome at the Discord: https://discord.gg/pNQCFYED7m
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
They want to steal from us? I say: give them a run for their money. Calculated without mercy.
0
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
Let's calm down on the lawsuit, prison, and CFTC threats "Yes" people. I'm upset too but let's try to be civil.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Let's be ice cold and dangerous. Civil with thieves? No.
1
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
Let's calm down on the lawsuit, prison, and CFTC threats "Yes" people. I'm upset too but let's try to be civil.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Nazi Kraut, please kill youself.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
If im feeling bad, im going to this market again and see yes betters still posting. Instantly happy again.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
And to Shayne Coplan: that's my purse, i don't know you!
1
zynyz
1 month ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because Kevin Chan and his risk capital own 50% of the votes. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Keep spreading the gospel and never stop. Either 100% yes or PR nightmare. Primo is on a roll. Bet he's coding some analysis tool designed for this case. the votes_v_most() seems to be a product of today.
2
zynyz
1 month ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because Kevin Chan and his risk capital own 50% of the votes. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Wtf, 100% yes. Why 50/50. The popular vote was voting for P2/YES. Only Kevin Chan and his ghost addresses were voting for NO/P1.
0
mona.lisa
1 month ago
Looks like a future PR nightmare for PolyMarket with that UMA share distribution. Should revert 50/50.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
his name is @dancer and he wears a cowboy hat.
0
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
TesticularCancerCapital07 claiming market manipulation
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Also this dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote doesn not eqal to the total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748
5
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Copied from phrank: Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
can you please shoot yourself in the head? pretty please?
0
dancer
1 month ago
why did you bet against the scammers, dummy? NO WAS INEVITABLE
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
UN security council. We need Chinese warships.
1
dancer
1 month ago
which nation tho?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Copied from phrank: Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
*How are you gonna - you need a chill pill, the rage makes you sick.
1
dancer
1 month ago
Kevin Chan works for UMA. How are gonna arrest anybody when you don't even understand the organization structure, dumbass? Your name leads one to believe you collect Ls on a level with DUMFAG DECRAPP! lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 1 min to fill out copy this: https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation.
0
Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF
1 month ago
They got SBF from the Bahama's. You think Polymarket and it's team (including Kevin Chan) are save anywhere in the world from the USA? They are gonna come for you asses :-)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Even better: this dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote doesn not euqal to the total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748
2
mona.lisa
1 month ago
https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA Kevin chan fixed the outcome
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
I want to give this Primo dude some money, if this resolves to Yes. Awesome guy.
1
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
This dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote != total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Primo is tha shit! MVP of Poly, doing a good cleansing of the vermin, that has infected this site.
0
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
This dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote != total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Related market: do Canadian prisons have vegan food for philantropists?
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PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
New market: Is Kevin Chan, "treasurer" of risk labs not only "believing in aligned incentives" but also a vegan?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
New market: Is Kevin Chan, "treasurer" of risk labs not only "believing in aligned incentives" but also a vegan?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
You buy green and suddenly talk sense. Wtf?
1
EastBoat
1 month ago
I think this market should be re-voted and resolved as yes, to keep the other markets consistent going into and November, the other two markets. Otherwise it won’t make sense.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Imagine MAGA needs a Florida recounting and Kevin Chan & Gang will have to vote P4 multiple times... hahaha.
0
Phrank
1 month ago
Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
UMA & Poly CEOs are residing in Canada/US. Just because you manipulate markets from offshore, doesn't mean the Feds can't prosecute you. And i predict that if the Election will have a Gore/Florida outcome, the shit will hit the fan Florida hurricane style. UMA will be annihilated by crazy MAGA incels. And i will watch gleefully as a bystander.
0
Phrank
1 month ago
I know I’m not getting my money back but there’s honestly a good chance this shit catches up to these guys and they are prosecuted at some point. Just because the exchange doesn’t operate in the US/Canada doesn’t mean you can’t be convicted of fraud/market manipulation;)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
noooo! UMA loves humanity! they are educated and distinguished people. i mean they want to better the world with arbitration of preditction markets. for humankind! and the children, who suffer illness, injustice and famine!
0
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
domer says it was not scam
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Shut up Kraut and throw yourself into a canyon.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
You guys won't get back anything nor reach anything. Why would you bet 100k+ if you cannot afford to lose it??
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Great digging. Kevin Chan and the Uma team are clearly philantropists. Do we know who the Caroline Ellison of UMA is?
1
Phrank
1 month ago
Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
New market: Are Kevin Chan and Shayne Coplan philantropists? Wonder what the UMA outcome will be :P
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
And i have a strong feeling that the Trump/Harris bet will break this site. The market here was kinda civil for it's scam, but over there the people are literally insane.
1
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
THE POLYMARKET PROMISE (See, top of page): You know, some people hold the belief that prediction markets are a better reflection of real-world events than the news? What the market fixers did here disputing reality with such malignant and maniacal scorn is so morally wrong on so many levels its criminal. They make a mockery of the PolyMarket promise at the very top of this page. Imagine you’re in a crisis situation, and were led to believe that prediction markets were a more reliable source of information than local, or regional reporting. Market fixers are a public danger. Please contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Do NOT claim worthless tokens. PRESERVE THE RECORD! Anyone who scares you into silence... think.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
it's bullshit. prediction markets may work in a regulated environment, but not in Panama. Poly is just a grift on the addicted gamblers. This market predicted 2 times a yes and now resolves to no. Certainly here and in a paralell universe, but not in reality.
1
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
THE POLYMARKET PROMISE (See, top of page): You know, some people hold the belief that prediction markets are a better reflection of real-world events than the news? What the market fixers did here disputing reality with such malignant and maniacal scorn is so morally wrong on so many levels its criminal. They make a mockery of the PolyMarket promise at the very top of this page. Imagine you’re in a crisis situation, and were led to believe that prediction markets were a more reliable source of information than local, or regional reporting. Market fixers are a public danger. Please contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Do NOT claim worthless tokens. PRESERVE THE RECORD! Anyone who scares you into silence... think.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Swiss are Nazis, too. Same breed.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
Stop whining and take your loss. Do you also cry like this in the casino?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Shayne Coplan has a face and he looks very similar to SBF. Maybe Panama doesn't care, but maybe NYC does: https://x.com/shayne_coplan
0
n/a
1 month ago
The worst part of this is that if Polymarket doesn’t do anything and just decides this market by the UMA voting they will end up being liable for the money lost after giving away the money to the fraudsters. Unfortunate but expect result if they don’t do what’s right. This market has to be unbiasedly analyzed which should derive in resolve in Yes or in 50/50 in the worst case scenario. Do the right thing Polymarket! Stand and defend your good faith costumers!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Lol. I have an inkling that the US election will finally break this site. UMA will decide MAGA, the electoral collage Harris. Or vice versa.
1
kekone
1 month ago
Viva el Presidente!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
hey Nazi Kraut. how do explain your future "income" to the tax authorities? https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/stgb/__286.html lucky you, you make no money here.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
Stop whining and take your loss. Do you also cry like this in the casino?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yeah, i called SBF, Diddy and SAFU Binance. they concur. buy the rumor, sell the news. Poly is going down at one point. The people have names and faces.
2
Secret14thKey
1 month ago
Just heard back from CFTC and they say they need to see at least 1000 more comments from Yes holders before they intervene
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
fuck it, peace is war, red is green. we only need enough UMA shares. "yOu fInD thE tRutH iN beTTinG maRkETs". every elon incel.
2
rozi
1 month ago
Already after the first vote, a few of us have been telling you that it's pretty much done already, but many of you did not want to listen. In addition to the strong logic of this going P1 after P4 was declared at first, we also had market rules (even if poorly formulated), which are more nuanced than the vibes you'll get from the news headlines or Wikipedia headlines, that you chose to rest your case on. There was another market for entry, which was created for the possibility of Israeli raids, but you treated this market as if it was about the entry. This market, however, was created for a possibility of an Israeli army invading Lebanon (think infantry and tanks, not a 3-hour overnight raids by small special ops teams). As per all the evidence, footage, geolocated imagery, and detailed reports - small numbers of tanks and infantry entered Lebanon first on Oct 2. That's why this market should've resolved No, and it did. Rather than complaining, I'd suggest taking a step back, and integrating possible learnings from this experience, especially around taking news headlines as a measure of what happened on the ground.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because all you need is a fat stake in UMA. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842 https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
9
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
New market: Will Shayne Coplan fix this market or share a cell with SBF by December 2024? (Shayne Coplan, CEO of PM)
7
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Does this guy look like SBF? And why is he based in NYC? https://x.com/shayne_coplan
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Probably on his way to Canada, visiting Kevin Chan.
3
jayminho
1 month ago
jeeeeeeeeezzzussss. is chad alive ?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
the dumpli link isn't really up to date, but gives you a clue, since only 79.3% shares have been revealved so far. But you will get the picture.
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this is the true pie chart and not the fixed: https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this is the true pie chart and not the fixed: https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Another thought: how much did Kevin made with his 3M shares? There really seems an incentive to manipulate the market. He outpowered 89 voters with his single (!) stake. Defintion of centralization and stinks of corruption.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Motherfucking Primo is really great: How can you tell from https://vote.uma.xyz/ how anyone votes? You just see a huge pie disfavouring YES. But once Primo steps in, it's 63:89 in favour of yes: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842/photo/1
1
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Another thought: how much did Kevin made with his 3M shares? There really seems an incentive to manipulate the market. He outpowered 89 voters with his single (!) stake. Defintion of centralization and stinks of corruption.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Another thought: how much did Kevin made with his 3M shares? There really seems an incentive to manipulate the market. He outpowered 89 voters with his single (!) stake. Defintion of centralization and stinks of corruption.
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Decentralized means shit, if one voter can outpower 89 other voters. That's the definition of centralization.
0
AcidBurn95
1 month ago
Even withouth Kevin Chan the vote would had tourned to No. Check the numbers. Chan gave 3Mil votes. The total number is 17Mil. His part is 17%. The No vote without Chan is still larger then the Yes Vote.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Poly must fix this shit or suffer consequences.
3
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
Do not claim worthless tokens. Preserve the record.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
aye. and spread the word!
1
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
Do not claim worthless tokens. Preserve the record.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Pls look it up yourself. Can't do everything all at once.
0
zynyz
1 month ago
Dont see a date? Should be 3 dates as there was 2 disputes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The NO betters are cunning. They were betting on Kevin's outpowering shares, not the actual voters. The majority of voters was always in our favour, but the shares were not. Hence why this market pumped twice. UMA must be ditched, a fucking clown show.
0
zynyz
1 month ago
What dates did Kevin Chan cast his votes Yes on the November market during the 3 disputes?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Too early. Look it upyourself @ https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850&market_tf8826=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+before+November%3F&time_tcef9c=1727797612
0
zynyz
1 month ago
What dates did Kevin Chan cast his votes Yes on the November market during the 3 disputes?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because all you need is a fat stake in UMA. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842 https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
so that dumfuck Kevin can just overpower a majority, because he has more shares. I mean his brain must be really huge.
1
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
yes, that is right. most UMA users are honest people
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Attention: Most UMA voters voted YES, but a majority of NO shares outpowered this market: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842 (Primo is the GOAT)
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Holy fuck. I didn't see this. So we have a majority of YES voters (!) but a majority of NO shares outpowers them. Primo IS doing the lords work! And you too, doglover!
3
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
btw did you know most uma voters voted yes? https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Shut up Kevin, we now know how to make money in the market. Be a UMA whale and pretend to fight them.
0
Ferguson,Turd
1 month ago
Honest question? Lets say someone has made it their life mission to stop UMA from being a resolution mechanism. This person complains about them once a day, tweets about them, posts about them, makes their user name something about stopping them. Then a hotly contested market comes up that UMA will resolve and this person does nothing but post BIG FACTs and what was very very likely to happen. Should this person be called a RIGGER, or a HERO?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Final distribution: https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png Source: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@YES gang, all you need to know, report the riggers: https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png - https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
preach.
0
n/a
1 month ago
Dear yes holders. We have been robbed in day light and if we have any brain then we should not waste our time here on this platform ever again even if they beg on their knees and apologize for this. Move on and try earning money by doing something else. I was here to earn money by using my brain and not to gamble. But I think this is a real scam platform. If I don't loose money by betting money, they will snatch away money like this or at worse someday my entire account will be hacked. So, I will never trust this platform ever again and I ll try working hard somewhere else and do something else.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
primo is doing the lords work. https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png - https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
1
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
More voters for "Yes", but a couple outpower them all (data included): https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png - https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
0
n/a
1 month ago
Where can you see the results?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
exactly. why would a coin pump twice?
0
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
The majority of the people, by the way, still voted yes; the distribution of the tokens is what leads to the no. So there is a media consensus, a market consensus, and a UMA user consensus, but the result is no
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@YES gang, all you need to know, report the riggers: https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png - https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
And Kevin Chan, a US resident is helping an offshore gambling site to rig votes for financial incentives? That's even more funny. SBF incoming.
0
Secret14thKey
1 month ago
just called the CFTC and told them I've lost money betting illegally on an offshore gambling site and want a refund. They said they'd get back to me soon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
You mean Kevin Chan, a US resident is helping an offshore gambling site to rig votes. That's funny.
0
Secret14thKey
1 month ago
just called the CFTC and told them I've lost money betting illegally on an offshore gambling site and want a refund. They said they'd get back to me soon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Kevin Bankman-Fried.
1
Secret14thKey
1 month ago
Kevin Chan fan club 👇
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
he's on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048#m
0
Carlossss
1 month ago
someone knows the account of Kevin Chan in Polymarket?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
For the visual people, who don't understand the interface: https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png
0
Cryptonord
1 month ago
https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Will Kevin Chan join Changpeng Zhao and SBF in December?
1
mona.lisa
1 month ago
Kevin Chan talking about UMA protocol 'resolving disputes' (he means himself and a few whales): https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048?s=46&t=sEhIeX3cwuO-BwyUSt3igA
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Will Kevin Chan share a cell with SBF in December? Lol. They can party with Diddy.
1
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
1 month ago
"Will PolyMarket be shutdown by the FBI before December?"
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Don't have it on my machine. But I'll post here.
0
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
Hit me up on Discord @katiasantos6330
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Taken from: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
These is the distribution of votes atm: https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
These is the distribution of votes atm: https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048#m
2
mona.lisa
1 month ago
I only just learned Kevin Chan owns 32% of the UMA votes. I don't think I'll take PolyMarket seriously now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this is our fine individual: https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048#m
0
n/a
1 month ago
This is a scandal and Polymarket should intervene, this market should settle Yes or 50/50 at worst. They can’t let their customers get scammed by UMA voters and let them get away with it. Clear market manipulation by a colluded group of big UMA holders. Polymarket should analyze the evidence and determine the result of this market by itself and not go with the rigged UMA votes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@Chad and the Yes holders: if you need a name and a face, Kevin Chan of UMA voted NO with 32.5% of all shares. I wonder if this constitutes fraud in the US, since he's gaining financial incentive from voting on false outcomes. Interestingly, Pablo Maldonado of UMA voted No, but he has only has 3.3% of all shares. Source: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850
0
n/a
1 month ago
This is a scandal and Polymarket should intervene, this market should settle Yes or 50/50 at worst. They can’t let their customers get scammed by UMA voters and let them get away with it. Clear market manipulation by a colluded group of big UMA holders. Polymarket should analyze the evidence and determine the result of this market by itself and not go with the rigged UMA votes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"decentralized" "truth" finding machine. but in reality it's just 3 whales. https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
if you hate car, let the German prosecutors know that he makes big money with betting.
1
Car
1 month ago
Thanks for playing
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
enjoy your jail time: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/stgb/__285.html
3
Car
1 month ago
Thanks for playing
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
no.
0
Speculo
1 month ago
Guys... Stop doing this
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
last bet on this market. fucking shit show. hope they end like SBF and the SAFU binance guy.
0
Donkov
1 month ago
ditch these crypto bros
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
if you want to stop UMA, write an article about this shit on medium and spread it everywhere.
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"decentralized" "truth" finding machine. but in reality it's just 3 whales. https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"decentralized" "truth" finding machine. but in reality it's just 3 whales.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"decentralized truth finding machine" my ass.
2
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this. with enough UMA shares, you can win every bet on Polymarket.
2
EdgyUsername
1 month ago
Chad, buy tokens not shares if you want to win this
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
are you talking to yourself? the bet will wipe all your profits out.
2
carp
1 month ago
Are you ready, son?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
today ATH 69ct after the dispute. cope.
0
fhantombets
1 month ago
Y going down down down
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
lol.
0
Vulture
1 month ago
Always inverse therealbatman.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Yeah. eventually we all trust in UMA. domah can suck a fat one.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
I belive in uma.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
haha. well they turned 2 previous markets to p2, so i'm hopeful :P 62% agree.
0
crow
1 month ago
this market should be called Guess if the uma whales will vote yes or no
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Batman is -2.5M down and the biggest NO better. should tell you a thing or two.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
Ok you're actually a lost case when u think prices demonstarte anything in such a low liquidity market and with 1 guy pumping 700k shares
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
You know, it just might be Domer's FUD. 62% of the market agree with the semantics. Only UMA can twist the semantics.
1
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
Dear PM, FIX THE PROBLEM!!! "Polymarket | Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" THE POLYMARKET PROMISE (See, top of page): You know, some people hold the belief that prediction markets are a better reflection of real-world events than the news? Imagine sitting in your home when special ops units backed up by tanks roll by your yard and get engaged by enemy fire. FFS!!! What the market fixers did here disputing reality with such malignant and maniacal scorn is so morally wrong on so many levels, it makes me want to cry. The fact that there are people out there who are willing to do such a thing for a few bucks is disgusting. The people here who engaged in criminal market fixing are absolute scum, and should be ashamed!!! They make a mockery of the PolyMarket promise at the very top of this page. Imagine you’re in a crisis situation, and were led to believe that prediction markets were a more reliable source of information than local, or regional reporting. Market fixers are a public danger. This might be a game to some, but it could be life or death to others. Maybe now, people can see another reason why I’ve been fighting the market fixers here so vociferously. Burn. https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/israel-ground-invasion-might-cause-lebanon-to-completely-collapse-13822174.html Might I suggest the employ of geopolitical experts for the resolution of such markets in the future? Buy the way, thanks for taking 0 fees on this market Polymarket!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
oh boy, the old shit: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between September 17, 2024 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET". "commencing" is key. 1 quad with 1 solider 1m into Lebaense ground is already enough for "commencing". 61% in the market agree with this notion.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
What people are forgeting is that uma Vote 34% for yes in the november market and 18% yes in september market at first Dispute. And September marked was voted AFTER november market, so even with more information available uma voted for no in september market. This shows that indeed uma is the same opinion that september raids DO NOT count as an Invasion.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Just for the people, who think that the semantics of "invasion" will lead to p1. it didn't. https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
What do you guys think about Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan from UMA if they find out that domah will manipulate the market? Happy or unhappy? Let them know on X: https://x.com/kevinchan2020 and https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Polymarket | Vote number #367 turned to P2 (yes). It's an invasion.
0
HsB34sgg
1 month ago
By 8:59 PM ET, September 30th, Reuters, The Guardian, Forbes, The Telegraph, NPR, the Independent, the BBC, The Times of Israel, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail, Al Jazeera, and many more ALL confirmed the invasion. Both Israel, and the IDF then confirmed the invasion within the timeframe specified in the rules. Israel had initially asked for a media blackout, but had to confirm given the flood of media reports. THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO RETRACTIONS!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Polymarket | Vote number #367 turned to P2. Yes, it's an invasion.
1
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
YOu could have only voted yes, if you think the invasion did happen or p4 if you think theres not enough evidence yet.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
drink less. too early is p4, no is p1. p1 was never voted for.
0
Fredi9999WASP🐝
1 month ago
He voted for too early (No)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
0
🤺JustPunched
1 month ago
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Hart Lambur & Kevin Chan will be very unhappy about market manipulation: https://x.com/kevinchan2020
0
🤺JustPunched
1 month ago
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Full of shit: domah 2024-10-01, 2:37 PM P4 Too Early. https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
❤️ true ❤️
0
NIGGA
1 month ago
Yes holders are the largest circlejerkers
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
and with that bet, your P/L will turn your account red. welcome to the other side. only chance is to sell and buy YES.
2
NIGGA
1 month ago
Yes holders are cute femboys, like if agree!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
gave you are heart. ad hominem is the last resort, when all other arguments fail. you are going down.
4
NIGGA
1 month ago
Yes holders are cute femboys, like if agree!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
thanks for your analysis professor. wanna buy some shares and back up your claim?
0
Alvarom22
1 month ago
P2 - Yes. With the Isareal enters in September, and Invades before October markets both settling to Yes it would be a fallacy if this resolves to anything but Yes. Without a doubt.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
1000% YES!
0
tsybka
1 month ago
100% NO!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
i trust UMA. they judged everything right so far. first p2, than p4 because of uncertainty. 2 markets turned correct to p2. betting p1 when it was never an option is just dumb. you can even reverse and undo the red.
2
Car
1 month ago
UMA should obey the rules and not disregard deadlines.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
hence we are above 50%. and continue to rise.
0
jeterl
1 month ago
Remember y'all, people voted yes twice THEN no as at the time we weren't sure if there actually was an invasion. Furthermore, in one of those votes UMA still had about 20% vote yes. As time has gone on, there's more and more evidence that supports a yes in this market until now where its indisputable per the Israel invading Lebanon by November market close. Since we also know they entered Lebanon in September per that market close, the question becomes is the Sept 30th activity apart of the current VALIDATED invasion. You can scroll down or check the discord for evidence but so far, there isn't any absolute evidence to suggest that the Sept 30th activity is separate to the current invasion. They raided in their evening which was still Sept 30th and within the deadline. Lastly, within the UMA discord debates for this market there has been 20 making an argument for P1 - Yes, 8 for P2 - No, and 1 for P4 - Too Early. This is clearly a Yes from UMA per debaters, we're just waiting until the vote reveal tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you are crazy. not only are you betting no, you are way too hateful for the peanuts that you bet. maybe this is not your game? find peace elsewhere?
1
dancer
1 month ago
eat a SALAD, you obese Nazi retard
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yeah, since Oct 3rd, kek. you can still collect 6% on your bet. or reverse and make +33%.
3
Sandy-Waters01
1 month ago
No is going up
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
why the f are you whining so much? you are up 100% by $25. did you bet your lunch money? just chill and take the $75.
4
Cryptonord
1 month ago
UMA Holders betting Polymarket itself is such a headache, Dome aka JustKen c*cksucking finest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
mango-lassi is actually cool. he's not taking it to heart.
1
Cryptonord
1 month ago
@mango-lassi @NIGGA @Kobafix @JustKen @05brownboy All Scammer Douchbags! I hate seeing you guys in late disputed markets. Niggas dont have a balls to bet on other markets than disputed ones and change the tide
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
y'all better listen to big Mike. a) he's really huge, look at his gains b) he'll eat you like the shrimps that you are c) the biggest NO better is -2,5M down. You bet on winners, not on losers: https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c
0
NIGGA
1 month ago
The yes team trying to scam this market is crazy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yessir. quorum here: https://vote.uma.xyz/
0
PBet
1 month ago
voting period ends in 14h and revealing begins, right?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
I also have mixed feelings. -2.5M down and then betting 140k again contrary to all evidence makes me at least question his judgement. But then somebody has to pay the bills in the end. I'm not hating on him, but I have no moral itches taking money from arrogant people. It's kind of a beautiful way to make money. It's zero-sum, but voluntarily.
1
-DFK-
1 month ago
@IsabelleBeaumont I feel kind of sad for therealbatman. It's mixed feelings of course, because anyone who can afford to lose 3m betting is already not a good person.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
This is a zero-sum game nethertheless. Somebody had to lose that money.
2
EastBoat
1 month ago
As you can see, even though I didn't bet a lot of money, I made money no matter which side won.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Okay. Post what you want, but it's meaningless. As if your 7.6k NO shares will impact the UMA vote. Or my 6K YES for that matter.
0
Tenebrus7
1 month ago
Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
hit like for mango-lassi and frenship!
1
mango-lassi
1 month ago
Hit like for chad
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Haha. Yeah, he scammed and scared people. Now that you mention it. Maybe he realized that he mostly is right and only wrong on this one. But I agree on the friendliness of this market. Somebody wanted to execute me in the Trump/Harris market. Lot's of civility here.
2
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 month ago
i love you even tho you tried to rig it
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
No dude. This guy is your enemy or at least someone to stay away from. You want to hang around people making money, not losing. He would be interesting making 3M in a market, not losing it.
1
-DFK-
1 month ago
apparently he can. Who loses 3m in 6 months betting, and keeps going at it cheerfully? I need that kind of friends.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
no "Batman" with already -2.5M doubling down to 140k NO. real madness.
0
TooDumbToWin
1 month ago
This is the strongest proof that we are right.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Thanks Car. Funny that you bought YES and NO. you're shakey. and down on both sides.
0
Car
1 month ago
GL Yes holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Dude, stop it. Vote with your UMA shares, you only reshuffle chairs on the Titanic. UMA votes is all that counts in the end. Actually you posting here, make me think you don't understand the process and your 7.6k NOs are rightfully taken from you.
0
Tenebrus7
1 month ago
Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
lol, i'm not a scammer. i presented my case truthfully. and so did you.
0
Rueben
1 month ago
Good Evening Frens. Lots of disagreement and fighting. Lets just remember, no matter what happens, these truths we hold to be self-evident: if your side loses this was rigged and if your side wins you are a scammer.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
80-90%. I mean you can scare people dumping 140k into NO. but then this guy already lost 2.5M. not really impressed by his financial abilities or risk assessment.
0
RememberAmalek
1 month ago
I wonder where the price would have been without Kiwi / Batman buying up 350k shares long after Chad had already sized into this market?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
p4 is still an option. why do you say this?
0
predictable
1 month ago
Thanks for free money sheeps
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
wut? it's just people butting their heads together in a kind of civil way. The Trump/Harris market is stepping on chickens and shooting dogs randomly (at least in the comment section).
0
BigMike11
1 month ago
This market is like stepping on baby chickens.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
I agree. On the other hand, if there is "Fog of war" and details are unclear, you need a mechanism to review. And since it was p2 and then p4 and never p1, it seems that UMA has integrity.
0
DeucePapi
1 month ago
Either way, a huge embarrassment for this platform, who made such a specific market and can't seem to resolve it several days after the fact despite everyone knowing exactly what happened. The fact that ppl are betting both sides is a testament to how unreliable the resolution mechanism is
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Reveal phase starts in: 16 hours https://vote.uma.xyz/
0
EdgyUsername
1 month ago
On here or UMA?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
I agree. This market is much nicer than the Trump/Harris market which has turn to unreversable brainrot if you uncheck the holder box.
0
Ferguson,Turd
1 month ago
^THIS
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Fork the scammers, read it up yourself here: https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 month ago
There are scammers spreading lies like "UMA already voted No". It's categorically false information. UMA voted "Too Early".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Yeah Car and JustKen. And therealbatman.
1
aldynspeedruns
1 month ago
and car
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
therealbatman doubled down to 140k, how nice of him to pay Chad's bills. https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Aye, hodl tight. UMA will resolve and so far they haven't rigged the last 2 markets.
0
BigMike11
1 month ago
No bros, save your money. This is a wrap. What are you guys even arguing here? We have all kinds of evidence the ground invasion began on September 30th. And the Israeli Commander of the North himself said of the motive: "Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the IDF be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Is that so? We will see it here: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
0
🤺JustPunched
1 month ago
Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Somebody can register here and feed us the latest news: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@HsB34sgg: It's kinda useless to spam the comments with your links. It's now in UMA hands. Sources and arguments are to be made here: https://vote.uma.xyz/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Haha, he claimed his losses are a strong buy signal.
1
-DFK-
1 month ago
top no holder has 3M in losses 😳😳
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Polytraders are now at the mercy of UMA voters. Understand the process.
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@HsB34sgg: It's kinda useless to spam the comments with your links. It's now in UMA hands. Sources and arguments are to be made here: https://vote.uma.xyz/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
@HsB34sgg: It's kinda useless to spam the comments with your links. It's now in UMA hands. Sources and arguments are to be made here: https://vote.uma.xyz/
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Biggest UMA whale is https://x.com/kevinchan2020
0
Wook-Capital-Fund-I
1 month ago
UMA voter analysis: https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/markets?event=12681
0
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Interesting toy: https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/?trader=0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344&events=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Interesting toy: https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/?trader=0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344&events=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
taken from: https://vote.uma.xyz/
1
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
50pence1826 2024-10-04, 4:14 PM P2 Yes A consensus of reporting is referring to the larger operation as an invasion. The market states it will resolve "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive. " Commence" does not require the full deployment of a massive force; it simply requires the beginning of a military operation. The operation to invade Lebanon began the night of the 30th after it was authorized by the cabinet and the 1st troops entered Lebanon. https://x.com/nytimes/status/1841027784530911493 https://x.com/Reuters/status/1840938872055697838 https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1840895921464226061 https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1841025054609469507 https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840857676781080600 https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1840780792089235835
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
50pence1826 2024-10-04, 4:14 PM P2 Yes A consensus of reporting is referring to the larger operation as an invasion. The market states it will resolve "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive. " Commence" does not require the full deployment of a massive force; it simply requires the beginning of a military operation. The operation to invade Lebanon began the night of the 30th after it was authorized by the cabinet and the 1st troops entered Lebanon. https://x.com/nytimes/status/1841027784530911493 https://x.com/Reuters/status/1840938872055697838 https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1840895921464226061 https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1841025054609469507 https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840857676781080600 https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1840780792089235835
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
one of us, one of us. wait. he's holding no. lol.
1
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 month ago
ALERT: therealbatman: Profit/loss -$2,558,090.55
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
i stay put for him. we'll cook him fine. not only the cat but also the bat. Chad is already firing up his steamcookers.
0
YatSen
1 month ago
I come for realbatman.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
we even have UN and IDF sources. we don't need a media consensus as per of the rules. doesn't hurt tho.
0
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
media consensus for thee but not for me
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
it's pretty logic, if you assume that some players are boozed up.
0
Mr. House
1 month ago
This market is beyond any logic right now
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
it only signals to us that you are comfortable with loosing. we are not. we are here to make money.
1
therealbatman
1 month ago
A guy who was willing to lose $3m on a single market just bought 70k worth of No. I think this is bullish signal.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
case of "Never Go Full Retard", whelp.
4
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
1 month ago
A guy with -$3M worth of losses just bought 70K worth of NO. I think this is bullish signal.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
holy smokes, that's brutal. i mean it makes sense tho. somebody hates money from all his heart.
0
PizzaWaffles
1 month ago
and he has a -2.5M PnL
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
word on the street is that Chad has a line of industrial steam cookers for the likes of you.
2
Car
1 month ago
its just so over for YES holders. Keep dreaming!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
i'm not afraid to cook a cat.
1
Car
1 month ago
its just so over for YES holders. Keep dreaming!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
therealbatman bought 151,771 No at 48.6¢ ($73,758) - is this a case of "i can distort reality with money"?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
facts.
0
BigMike11
1 month ago
P1 go for the ole' "Let's ignore all arguments for yes on a technicality". What they don't do is discuss or debate the evidence cited.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
FUD. back it up with sources. there were enough P2 votes in the beginning. hence it resolved to yes in the first place.
1
EastBoat
1 month ago
I have long warned that the outcome of this market is clear. But the problem is that there are not enough uma tokens to support yes. My guess is that half of the next votes are from prank whales.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
of course p4 is made for this. too early to finalize, so you can look for more and substancial evidence.
1
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
1 month ago
Where does it say evidence after the deadline can't be considered? Doesn't this defeat the purpose of voting "too early" (i.e., we need to wait for more information?)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this is an example of a p1 holder, no substance, no souces, no backup. just "muh feelings".
2
Car
1 month ago
"Enter" and "Invade" are 2 markets with completely different rules. The rules for this "Invade" market were not satisfied at the time of the proposal before the deadline. That is why it went to P4. Whatever happens after the deadline, should obviously not be considered. Even if you want to consider the new evidence from October, there is still no "Intent to establish control over any portion of Lebanon".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Guys educate yourself, the comment section on UMA is interesting: p2 (yes) always has arguments and cites sources, p1 (no) never cites sources, just blank statements with no sources. Hence no quorum ever turned to p1, only p2 and p4: https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"control regions" is not part of the rules. "intended to establish control over any portion" can be a Lebanese parking lot with one 1 IDF soldier, a M16 and a quad.
1
Car
1 month ago
theres a reason they made 2 markets. One for them entering, one for invading with intention to control regions. The "intended to establish control over any portion" is not proven. Not at 30 sep and not now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
don't list to a cat coping on catnip, read the facts with sources.
3
Car
1 month ago
Dont be so silly, YES holders. You really think UMA falls for your little games?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
also UMA stakeholder have money to loose if they vote on nonsense, Poly will drop them like a hot potato: https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
4
Car
1 month ago
Dont be so silly, YES holders. You really think UMA falls for your little games?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
look at the past 4 UMA quora folks, P1 was never an option https://vote.uma.xyz/
2
Car
1 month ago
Dont be so silly, YES holders. You really think UMA falls for your little games?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
lol. it was voted P2 (yes) in the first place, then P4 (not enough evidence). P1 was never an option in the quorum nor was evidence for P1 presented.
1
Car
1 month ago
theres a reason they made 2 markets. One for them entering, one for invading with intention to control regions. The "intended to establish control over any portion" is not proven. Not at 30 sep and not now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
P1 (no) was never ever voted for in the last 4 quora. it was either P2 or P4, but never P1. and the P1 folks can't come up with anything substancial at all.
1
Tenebrus7
1 month ago
Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
also have a look at the last 4 quora on UMA, P1 (no) was never voted for: https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes
1
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
There's a secret market behind this one: will UMA vote correctly with P2 or will UMA holders themselves soon be bag holders? Right now it looks good for P2. https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
the P1 folks also never provide any evidence or links. just yadda-yadda.
2
Car
1 month ago
Chad is the only person responsible for this Y price lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you actually bet P1. yet in all 4 quorums in the last days, it was never voted for. it's either P2 or P4, but never P1.
3
Car
1 month ago
Chad is the only person responsible for this Y price lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
just admit your loss. you are the one holding back 99.8ct. also look at the past UMA votings, P2 gets stronger and stronger with every "final review". yet nobody votes P1.
2
Car
1 month ago
Chad is the only person responsible for this Y price lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
There's a secret market behind this one: will UMA vote correctly with P2 or will UMA holders themselves soon be bag holders? Right now it looks good for P2. https://x.com/hal2001/status/1793752920799990092
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
enjoy your monies. i started with 12ct. yerked a little bit tho.
1
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
1 month ago
I was almost gaslit into thinking I was crazy for buying at 13c, glad the truth is prevailing. I really want to believe in this site.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you can still flip it. 50-pence is smelling blood and joined the yes army.
2
Dr.ChristmasJones
1 month ago
Just leaving this comment in a sea of YES holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
100k in 2 days for you. hodl tight.
0
RememberAmalek
1 month ago
what abt me man i'm the foot soldier in all of this chad is just getting the rake
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
50-pence has spoken. it's over guys. you can buy my lot for 99.5ct
2
Rueben
1 month ago
The Ayes have it
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Even UN and IDF backs up the “commencement of the operation” https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1841045490802053520 and https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776 - NO holders are in complete denial. Futhermore, the "commenced military offensive" has started "to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Again backed up by the UN and IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 and https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514 How do you raid residential homes and seize weapons, if you can't exert at least some control on the ground?
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
10 IDF soliders on quads with M16 rifles executing a limited localized special operation is already "commenceing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Could be the next Lebanese supermarket or parking lot to build a bridgehead. Futhermore: "The IDF is operating according to a methodical plan ... which IDF soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months." And: "The "Israeli Air Force and IDF Artillery ... supporting the ground forces with precise strikes on military targets." https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
1
n/a
1 month ago
limited localized= not an invasion yet
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Nowhere in the rules do I read " invasion". You made up new rules.
0
n/a
1 month ago
limited localized= not an invasion yet
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
It doesn't get more “military offensive”: "The IDF is operating according to a methodical plan ... which IDF soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months." And: "The "Israeli Air Force and IDF Artillery ... supporting the ground forces with precise strikes on military targets." https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
0
abdendriel
1 month ago
Be careful not to be fooled by the title. The rules say “military offensive”.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"I commenced to practice swimming as a 6 year old, but I reached my first 25 m when I was 7 years old." My swimming practice therefore started when I was 6, but I yielded success when I was 7. Relevant in both cases is the intention and the beginning of the execution, not the time of yielding success.
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 month ago
Israel did want to control some land of Lebanon on Sep 30th. But Israel failed because Lebanon fought back.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Irrelevant, "commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon __that fails here and there in the beginning__" is still "commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". The bet is not about initial success, but commencing.
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 month ago
Israel did want to control some land of Lebanon on Sep 30th. But Israel failed because Lebanon fought back.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The Shareholder's might, a golden hand, Reached out to claim the promised land. The No-holder, weak and undefined, A shattered shell, left far behind. With coffers full and soldiers bold, The Shareholder's story must be told. From desert sands to mountain high, His victory soared across the sky. The No-holder's cries, a mournful sound, Lost in the echoes all around. Their ancient homes, their fertile fields, Now claimed by power, fortune yields.
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Like a chad with diamond hands: chad bought 10,200 Yes at 44.3¢ ($4,518) 21m ago chad bought 20,583 Yes at 43.2¢ ($8,886) 25m ago
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
100ct you mean. But yeah.
2
n/a
1 month ago
It really isn't too late to get on the yes train. The writing is on the wall at this point. 44 cents will soon be worth 1 💵
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
ooops, you are stacking up the wrong shares. from -8% to 16%,
0
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
pls, call chad right now. we NO holders which want to buy more, want to have chad back in the game!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
complety silly to vote NO on the Nov market. Hence why nobody sells and it's @ 98ct. The same logical case will also be made for the Sep maket, because the “commencement of the operation” (Operation North Arrow) started on Sep 30. Even small raids can "commence an operation". And as of now, it still continues.
1
jeterl
1 month ago
We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
thanks.
0
Mr. House
1 month ago
Posted in the discord
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
copy it and post where you deem it approriate. it's the truth and the sources are required for the bet.
1
Le-King
1 month ago
You know it's completely useless to post that here right
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Even UN and IDF backs up the “commencement of the operation” https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1841045490802053520 and https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776 - NO holders are in complete denial. Futhermore, the "commenced military offensive" has started "to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Again backed up by the UN and IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 and https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514 How do you raid residential homes and seize weapons, if you can't exert at least some control on the ground?
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
or beautiful. beauty lies in the eye of the beholder.
2
hp-loveshack
1 month ago
this is gonna get ugly.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you are 0.1% for him. plankton, not even small fish.
0
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
pls, call chad right now. we NO holders which want to buy more, want to have chad back in the game!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
lol, do you think a guy with 500k cares about someone with a 0.6k position? you are plankton. make up your mind. he can still go to 600k.
0
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
pls, call chad right now. we NO holders which want to buy more, want to have chad back in the game!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
i mean, if you are sure that the YES holders are dead wrong, don't buy it. but the argument that -8% are too late is laughable. there's + 200% to be made atm. the only question is: can you stomach the loss?
0
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
I guess is to late to sell my shares, YES holders have solid opinion. I might be wrong holding on NO position.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
cope. if you are so cock sure, switch of the machine and live a life worth living. bitching in the comments won't help you.
1
Ferguson,Turd
1 month ago
Do people realize we already voted on this or nah? I mean IM OK with more cheap NO dont let me stop you but I am genuinely curious
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
don't be stupid, grow some balls. you are just -8% down. also sell you "Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?" shares and go all in in YES. that's were the big money is. there's a UMA crybaby and a Chad in this market. Who do you want to be?
0
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
I guess is to late to sell my shares, YES holders have solid opinion. I might be wrong holding on NO position.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you want to buy NO at 40ct? that's crazy, but good for the YES holders. so please do. once it goes above 50ct, you'll be wiped out.
1
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
Like I said before, I expect from them to reach 60c for YES, tonight. Don't disappoint me.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
YES is coming back strong. keep posting the truth lads, we'll get to 99ct soon. make the NO scammers feel their guts wrenched.
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
in theory the market should resolve to yes, if IDF chooses control over a parking lot in Lebanon for 1h. "intended to establish control" even implies, that IDF can fail at establishing control, as long as they were intending. "well, we were intending to control a parking lot in Lebanon for an hour, but then we decided to raid homes, because we can". Proof: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559
0
BenCM
1 month ago
If the IDF didn't invade Lebanon with ground troops to control the border and stop rocket fire at their citizens, then what exactly are they doing? The market does not require long-term control or occupation, just control.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
If Ken and UMBS weren't distorting the price, where would this be trading, 99c?
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The volume of Augur is under 100k. Basically non-existent: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/augur/ - soon UMA if they screw around with their resolutions.
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
1 month ago
Here is the philosophy of the CEO of UMA for voting. Basically, vote what the average person would think. https://x.com/NTmoney/status/1793751823003865191
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yup, bye UMA. you can't have 2 masters.
0
Shayku
1 month ago
100%. And just that fact makes it likely that Poly will want to break away from UMA, turning the UMA stakeholders into bag holders.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
betting NO on this market means, that UMA holders are in for the short grabs, since they have no interest in long term value. Polymarket might have to step in.
0
tiekoo
1 month ago
This market is no longer events betting but "how the UMA holders vote" betting.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
this. let's see if it's corrupt or not.
0
tiekoo
1 month ago
This market is no longer events betting but "how the UMA holders vote" betting.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
what if the market turns to YES? will he be treated for his massive swollen balls? and what will the NO holder do?
0
rozi
1 month ago
Gambling addiction :)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
why the friendly fire?
0
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
If Chad tells his therapist that he lost all his money because he bet that Israel would invade Lebanon, will he be treated for gambling addiction or for a psychosis? Serious question
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
if an israeli solider raids your house and seizes your weapons, they are in control of you and your residence.
1
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
operational control != control of territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
reading seems not your forte. it's: "control over any portion of Lebanon". 1m² is enough. also already backed up by IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559
1
FamilyCapital
1 month ago
operational control != control of territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
institute for the study of war is not a source for the bet, the IDF however is: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559
0
denizz
1 month ago
Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per institute for the study of war. No consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
aye "long term occupation" isn't part of the bet, it's "establish control over any regions of Lebanon" and "commencing".
0
SmartMagaMoney
1 month ago
You see, that's where the root of the problem lies: you have a weak reading comprehension. The rules also say nothing about occupation
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
how do you raid houses without establishing control. do you think they started a drum circle and then finally flipped and decided to raid houses? https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 &
0
Car
1 month ago
Im still waiting for proof that IDF invaded before the market end time with the intention to "establish control over any regions of Lebanon". It goes to NO otherwise
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
No holders would like the conditions say: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between September 17, 2024 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET for at least a couple of days if not months or years. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
0
144
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Facts
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
how do you raid residentials homes and seize weapons, if you can't excert at least some control on the ground?
0
144
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Facts
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
futhermore, the "commenced military offensive" has started "to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Again backed up by the UN and IDF: https://x.com/IDF/status/1842127761944809559 and https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514
0
144
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Facts
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
even UN and IDF backs up the “commencement of the operation” https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1841045490802053520 and https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776 - NO holders are in complete denial.
0
144
1 month ago
“Commences a military offensive”. What military offensive was that? “Operation North Arrow”. Is Northern arrow the current operation? Yes. Therefore the October Evidence (reported facts) count as full strength evidence that the “commencement of the operation” which started on Sept 30 is an undeniable YES. Facts
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Semantics over the word "control". Kinda hard to raid a border without having at least some control. Try to be not in control and cross a border peacefully. Doesn't happen. Even presenting your passport requires some sort of control.
0
n/a
1 month ago
Is this literally going to come down to a time zone dispute?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Lebanon: UN experts deplore Israel’s increasing disregard for international law “Israel’s latest breach of international law – a ground invasion in violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and Security Council resolution 1701 – will only add to this mounting toll of death and displacement,” the experts said. https://x.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1842180255294935514
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
are you already buying the cheap NO shares or is this a cope circle? put your money where your mouth is.
1
mango-lassi
1 month ago
assemble gang
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
pfff. all fake news. in their mind, a raid doesn't establish control. it was a peaceful Goa drum circle. no border has been crossed, no forceful offensive, all toy guns. they hugged the Libanese military and never had any control over 1m² within a timespan of 1 min, 1h or 1 day..
1
DopeFrancis
1 month ago
Any No holders seen the November market lately?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Logic case to buy Yes for a bargain: https://pastebin.com/3cvbT1eY
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yes holders will exhaust you, until you pay us our full 100%. on the 30th, isreali forces had control over a part of libanon. whether that's 5 min or 5 hour or 5 day isn't part of the bet. and the yes guys will exhaust you till Polymarket will step in.
1
Ferguson,Turd
1 month ago
No holders have spent days researching and laying a vry logical and sound case. We are exasuted of having to do it yet again, when it has already been voted and and agreed to by UMA.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
cheapy cheapy YES shares I likey likey
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
cope. you should sell your shitty positions as well and go all in.
0
mango-lassi
1 month ago
shhhh
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The final review was 12h ago. Now we have "the most definitve final review".
0
CheerfulPessimist
1 month ago
You can’t call it the final review until you proof that it is actually *intended* to be the final review. If you can’t proof it, it resolves to No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
All talk no show. Sell your weak positions and go all in. Until then, you are just a talking head.
2
Car
1 month ago
cheapy cheapy NO shares I likey likey
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
What Bibi said. Sell everything and walk the talk.
0
mango-lassi
1 month ago
Price keeps getting better and better, why did I buy earlier :/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Funny, a prediction market that is predicting the past. And the second final review. We need 2 new bets: can Polymarket predict the past and is a final review really a final review or can there be more than one final review?
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
How do you establish control without guns and crossing the border? Was it a raid or a Goa drum circle? One Lebanese military guy shot at a post already establishes control over "any portion" in Lebanon. I'm pretty sure the control lasted longer than 5 secs. Once an Israeli solider raids your house and points a gun at you, you and your property are under their control.
2
Ferguson,Turd
1 month ago
Just checked in on the discord server and boy the YES team is struggling in there. Quick send in reinforcements team YES
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Lebanon is pretty corrupt, they might be all actors. Maybe Mossad can help UMA out with some GPS coodinates and internal briefings? I'm pretty sure they are tracking their soldiers during a peaceful drum circle Goa festival in Lebanon.
0
Meow.Zedong
1 month ago
Let me get in that market please if it exists. I wanna do this again. That sounds like fun!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
no need to wait for november, the event is already in the past. is this a retrocausal prediction market?
0
CheerfulPessimist
1 month ago
As soon as the November market resolves to Yes we have proof that Israel intends or intended to establish control. The invasion started at the lasted on October 1st 2am local time when the IDF announced that they have sent troops into Lebanon. The “intent to establish control” must have been present at that time already, as the Israeli National Security Cabinet approved the "next phase" in its conflict with Hezbollah before that date and there have been no meetings since: Source: https://x.com/AnnaBarskiy/status/1840846261802422415
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
aye, timestamp videos? it's all gen AI. until a UMA reporter to the UN Security Council has boots on the grounds, nothing is proven.
1
Meow.Zedong
1 month ago
Breaking News: US launches airstrikes at Houthi Rebels in Yemen. 1984 Dystopian Team No: “Those were fireworks.” “There’s no evidence of the intent.” “All we know is the US said they fired them and journalists reported it but until I see timestamp videos of blown up Houthi’s on my iPhone, I can’t say for sure.”
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
IDF is bombarding Lebanon with love, not even a smithereen was under control at all time. Special Isreali Love Defensive. Sell ya yes shares while you can.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
special clearing out civilian operation. classic putin textbook move.
0
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
Clearing out civillians and taking those areas isn't establishing control guys. It's all just a misunderstanding
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
yesterday your average was 47¢ yes. now it's 80% no. lol.
0
aldynspeedruns
1 month ago
accumulate more shares pussy3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
No, only a kid named Bort.
0
homeer
1 month ago
Did anyone see my son Bart?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
sell your Kamala shares and go all in. with the proceeds, buy more Kamala shares. walk the talk.
1
Naak
1 month ago
Haha despite this foolnes from all theese yes holder anyone with a gram of brain know it is a no. Just read the damn about section.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
sell your stupid "Will Biden finish his term?" and go all in. congrats for the 8ct entry. i started with 12ct. avarage is 29ct because i'm a pussy :/
0
Mountainman
1 month ago
"I'm just a kid" No you are someone who scams the people on this platform over and over, and you do it without shame. It is nice to see that many others are getting wise to it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
so you can buy more? your average is 47¢.
0
aldynspeedruns
1 month ago
im gonna sleep, wen i wake up i hope its at like 30c
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
okay, another 1k but with only + 100%.
0
🤺JustPunched
1 month ago
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
not enough. i should have gone all in when it was 17ct. currently only + 228.25%
1
🤺JustPunched
1 month ago
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
again, you don't qualify at a source. 88% change in the Nov market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November
0
Amok
1 month ago
You hate money
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
While Israel insists that the “limited” and “localized” ground operation it launched in Lebanon Tuesday does not amount to a major incursion, the situation on the ground seems to suggest it is preparing for the possibility of expanding its presence there. Lebanon’s military said Wednesday an Israeli military force breached the border, reaching 400 meters (about a quarter of a mile) into Lebanese territory before withdrawing. The IDF has sent evacuation orders to 51 villages in southern Lebanon, instructing residents to move north. The area under the IDF evacuation orders makes up a quarter of all Lebanese territory, with its inhabitants pushed more than 30 miles north of their homes. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
thank you very much, that was an informative answer. i think i will buy some more yes :D
0
EdgyUsername
1 month ago
We have fun people like Hexphil. :)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Israel says operations in Lebanon are "limited" and "localized." The reality on the border suggests otherwise https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s45o3n00003b6r1cjsvyq6
0
abdendriel
1 month ago
Military offensive? yes. Intention to control a portion? We’ll see which portion the tanks are parked on. Unless they’re driving back and forth daily.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Eh, i mean credible source. It seems they want to establish control: Israel says operations in Lebanon are "limited" and "localized." The reality on the border suggests otherwise https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s45o3n00003b6r1cjsvyq6
0
EdgyUsername
1 month ago
We have fun people like Hexphil. :)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The best argument to buy yes with a source?
0
Diddy sex tape released before November?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
true, but for $32,034 Vol. ?
0
BlueSky123
1 month ago
If someone tresspasses onto Diddy property and films a sex tape there, this would resolve yes per the rules. They don't even necessarily have to break into his house, they could film it in the car outside as long as it's on his property lines.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Fox: The majority of viewers say Tim Walz won the debate https://x.com/kamalahq/status/1841500684824289570
5
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on October 1, 2024, ended with highly divided opinions on who performed better. A CNN instant poll showed 51% of viewers believed Vance won, while 49% favored Walz. A POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll also indicated a 50-50 split among voters on who won the debate, reflecting the country's hyper-polarized politics. Party identification strongly influenced perceptions, with Democrats siding with Walz and Republicans with Vance, while independents slightly favored Walz. Overall, the debate was marked by a civil demeanor and significant policy discussions, but it did not produce a clear winner according to the polls.
0
KovacNationalism
1 month ago
YouGov already posted a CBS poll that shows Vance won.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
One week for Ipsos to post their poll. The bet isn't primary about YouGov
1
KovacNationalism
1 month ago
YouGov already posted a CBS poll that shows Vance won.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
you read the NYT, didn't you? i did the flip. 3 times heads in a row.
0
Tester - 39764
1 month ago
All polls show they are 50-50 (i.e. a coin-flip). Ipsos is left-leaning (they published that Harris is currently leading 47%-40%). If I paid you 2-1 odds on a coin-flip, when the person flipping the coin shows tails more often than heads, would you take tails?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
all in then.
0
Wasserbrunner
1 month ago
There’s no better source in the world for who won that debate than this market.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
buy more.
1
Wasserbrunner
1 month ago
It’s like the people commenting don’t know the entire purpose of this prediction market. The debate happened, and the odds here show that Vance won.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Because a liberal pollster will set the outcome.
1
n0b0dy
1 month ago
So a bunch of liberal media polls think it was very close. And....you think that's significant....why?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Ipsos is where the money at, not JL Partners. But good to see the wide error margin,
4
Clenc
1 month ago
Who won the debate 🔴 Vance 50% 🔵 Walz 43% JL Partners
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
The vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on October 2, 2024, ended with no clear winner according to post-debate polls. A CNN instant poll showed a near-even split, with 51% of viewers believing Vance performed better and 49% favoring Walz. A POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll also indicated a 50-50 division among voters on who won the debate, reflecting the country's polarized politics. A CBS survey found similar divisions, with 42% of viewers believing Vance emerged victorious, 41% siding with Walz, and 17% viewing it as a tie.
6
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
51-49 for Walz and Vance holders will fill us 100%. Hope Ipsos will squeeze out one liberal percent.
0
BuckMySalls
1 month ago
i'll freely admit i will dump on y'all when this is at 50c as it should be: "Asked who won Tuesday’s debate, voters were split 50-50 over whether it was JD Vance or Tim Walz, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll of likely voters conducted just after the two faced off in a studio in New York City." https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Would you trust the US newspapers on European issues? Or debate performances?
0
DS831228
1 month ago
Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Europeans aren't allowed to vote. And won't be ask by Ipsos.
2
DS831228
1 month ago
Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Following the debate, 59% of debate watchers said they had a favorable view of Walz, with just 22% viewing him unfavorably – an improvement from his already positive numbers among the same voters pre-debate (46% favorable, 32% unfavorable). Debate watchers came away with roughly net neutral views of Vance following the debate: 41% rated him favorably and 44% unfavorably. That’s also an improvement from their image of Vance pre-debate, when his ratings among this group were deeply underwater (30% favorable, 52% unfavorable). A 65% majority of debate watchers now say Walz is qualified to serve as vice president if necessary, with 58% saying the same of Vance. Before the debate, 62% thought Walz was qualified to assume the vice presidency if needed, and 50% that Vance was qualified to do so. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/vance-walz-debate-cbs-10-01-24/index.html
4
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Debate watchers say, 48% to 35%, that Walz is more in touch with the needs and problems of people like them than Vance is. The share who say that both vice presidential hopefuls are in touch with their problems is twice as large as the share who say that neither is, 12% to 6%. Following Tuesday night’s debate, viewers say, 48% to 39%, that Walz, rather than Vance, more closely shares their vision for America, with 8% saying that both candidates share their vision, and 5% saying that neither do. They say, 37% to 33%, that Vance, rather than Walz, did the better job defending his running mate, with 27% saying that each candidate did an equally good job, and 3% that neither did. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/vance-walz-debate-cbs-10-01-24/index.html
2
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
"Did Vance say Trump salvaged Obamacare? Wow! Vance appealing look an hour ago melted away as Walz experience as governor and congressman leaves in dust as mouthy Yale theorist with no real world answers." --Juan Williams, co-host of "The Five" https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/fox-news-top-talent-react-to-cbs-news-vice-presidential-debate
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Fox News Channel's political analyst Juan Williams said "Vance was getting pummeled on Jan.6" during the CBS News VP debate. https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/fox-news-top-talent-react-to-cbs-news-vice-presidential-debate
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Vance denied election result. Walz will win by a small margin.
3
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
Ipsos will declare Walz as a winner.
2
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PolyRig-Fried
1 month ago
But nobody in the US likes him: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/