#73
Rank
234
Comments
167
Likes Received
83
Likes Given
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
mombil
2 months ago
Putin is said to be ready to agree Ukraine truce with conditions. According to sources in Moscow, Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine as long as progress is made towards a final peace settlement https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1898039859253854612
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mombil
2 months ago
BREAKING: Putin is said to be ready to agree Ukraine truce with conditions. https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1898038325484613810
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
mombil
2 months ago
BREAKING: Putin is said to be ready to agree Ukraine truce with conditions. https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1898038325484613810
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Who will Trump meet with in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1894491533237252417
1
Piffpaff
2 months ago
Trump cannot meet Zelensky before he meets with Putin, Zelensky has to wait otherwise the peace deal with Russia will be jeopardised. For the minerals deal the Ukraine will send someone to US to sign it off, and Trump will meet Zelensky after he agrees on a peace plan with Putin. Until then Zelensky has to wait
Who will Trump meet with in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
sorry bud he is going there on Friday
0
Piffpaff
2 months ago
Trump cannot meet Zelensky before he meets with Putin, Zelensky has to wait otherwise the peace deal with Russia will be jeopardised. For the minerals deal the Ukraine will send someone to US to sign it off, and Trump will meet Zelensky after he agrees on a peace plan with Putin. Until then Zelensky has to wait
Ukraine agrees to give Trump rare earth metals before April?
mombil
2 months ago
Today, Ukrainian and U.S. teams are working on a draft agreement between our governments. This agreement can add value to our relations what matters most is getting the details right to ensure it truly works. - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1893056463431483526
0
Ukraine agrees to give Trump rare earth metals before April?
mombil
2 months ago
An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. ---- You honestly think Trump would not announce something right after its signed?
1
Echelonprt
2 months ago
Why is yes so high? Even if there is a deal it would be after a cease fire and will take some time
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mombil
2 months ago
There is no proof for your strategic voting claim, I would even say the opposite and polling slightly below 5% rather than at 6% is an advantage. As seen twice with FDP 2013 and Linke 2021 you are likely to underperform if people see you as safe above 5% with 6% polls. I also count on quite some CDU voters to switch to FDP, to prevent a coalition with the Greens.
2
p01ym33rk4t
2 months ago
FDP is probably fucked. 4.5% on the massively statist and left-wing YouGov. Remember, if you're hovering below 5%, you're getting hammered by strategic voting. Even Der Linke died despite having 6-9% all of last election's cycle.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
I think we only have Forschungsgruppe Wahlen left, maybe maybe maybe Allensbacher also. Insa could do Saturday as well, but I wouldnt put much weight into them too
2
mombil
2 months ago
Right now 6/8 polls show 20% for them https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm - but what is more important than %s is the direction the polls are moving. Anyone would prefer to have movement from 18 to 20 rather than 22 to 20 before any election. They could very well land above 20% - but below 20 is more than a 1 in 5 chance.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Right now 6/8 polls show 20% for them https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm - but what is more important than %s is the direction the polls are moving. Anyone would prefer to have movement from 18 to 20 rather than 22 to 20 before any election. They could very well land above 20% - but below 20 is more than a 1 in 5 chance.
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Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
is that a serious question? I could be right in 9 markets going all in, if im wrong the 10th time im down from 140K PnL to 0. Only dumb people go all in with larger bankrolls...
0
mombil
2 months ago
Asked if they set a date for a Trump-Putin meeting following the talks in Saudi Arabia, national security adviser Mike Waltz tells reporters, “We did not, we did not set that date, but the two presidents talked about meeting and expect to meet." https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1891853510712381783
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
Look at the signs "RUSSIA'S LAVROV SAYS EUROPEAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE IS UNACCEPTABLE FOR RUSSIA" "Russia’s Lavrov: There are no thoughts of territorial concessions to Ukraine at negotiations" Do you honestly believe Trump and Putin will meet if there are no advanced talks? Imagine Trump leaving a meeting with Putin and having no result or at least the perspective of a result, he would not risk such public failure. They will need many months to start negotiating and after some progress, I would guess not earlier than July, Trump and Putin will meet.
3
mombil
2 months ago
Asked if they set a date for a Trump-Putin meeting following the talks in Saudi Arabia, national security adviser Mike Waltz tells reporters, “We did not, we did not set that date, but the two presidents talked about meeting and expect to meet." https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1891853510712381783
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
Surely doesnt sound like they are meeting anytime soon
0
mombil
2 months ago
Asked if they set a date for a Trump-Putin meeting following the talks in Saudi Arabia, national security adviser Mike Waltz tells reporters, “We did not, we did not set that date, but the two presidents talked about meeting and expect to meet." https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1891853510712381783
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
Asked if they set a date for a Trump-Putin meeting following the talks in Saudi Arabia, national security adviser Mike Waltz tells reporters, “We did not, we did not set that date, but the two presidents talked about meeting and expect to meet." https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1891853510712381783
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
there is no such thing as official early voting data in Germany - everything you see is polls or own surveys.
1
Trolloftheswamp
2 months ago
Early voting data doesn’t show a chance for the afd to cross over 25 percent or even win tbh but 20-25 super likely
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mombil
2 months ago
this guy is obviously just promoting his huge 19 follower Twitter account and has zero skin in the game. They may very well not make the 5%, but to give a 4,36% probablility and not buying NO shares @ 71c shows you how seriously you can take this person.
2
momoracle
2 months ago
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election? Current Probability: 4.36% https://x.com/Momoraclecom/status/1891134377762918501
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mombil
2 months ago
a random number generator
0
momoracle
2 months ago
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election? Current Probability: 4.36% https://x.com/Momoraclecom/status/1891134377762918501
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
GAME BREAKER!!!!! 50% confirmed - may even be 60% - hell what am I saying the may even reach the 90%
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FUENTES
2 months ago
JD VANCE met Alice Weidel. it's game breaker
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Not necessarily, check the "Politische Stimmung" part of FG-Wahlen - quite interesting: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer/stimmung.htm
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mombil
2 months ago
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20% AFD
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20% AFD
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AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Wahlkreisprognose AFD 20: https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Die aktuelle Sonntagsfrage ist die letzte Messung von Wahlabsichten durch infratest dimap vor der Bundestagswahl.
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mombil
2 months ago
Infratest leider nur 32-21
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Bei den Wahlabsichten ergeben sich nur kleinere Aenderungen zur Vorwoche. Die Union liegt mit 32 Prozent leicht besser als in der Vorwoche (+1), die AfD stabil bei 21 Prozent. Die SPD gibt etwas nach und kaaeme auf 14 Prozent (-1). Die Gruenen haetten unveraendert 14 Prozent in Aussicht. Weiterhin bewegen sich mehrere Parteien um die Mandatsschwelle. Die Linke haette derzeit 6 Prozent in Aussicht (+1), das BSW 4,5 Prozent (+0,5), die FDP unveraendert 4 Prozent. Andere Parteien kaemen zusammen auf 4,5 Prozent (-1,5).
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mombil
2 months ago
Infratest leider nur 32-21
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Infratest leider nur 32-21
1
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
mombil
2 months ago
no
6
fgdyt21
2 months ago
If can plz donate me some....
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
diese Woche wieder nix? :D Die neue Umfrage dann am besten nach der Wahl veroeffentlichen
0
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
Mach dich nicht laecherlich.
4
Aadler12345
2 months ago
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/afd-elon-musk-germany-election-poll-b2690389.html Poll by the people that predicted Brexit and 1st Trump presidency correctly: CDU 27%, AFD 25% in their poll.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
35-40 in my mind as of now. If we see them drop to 20 or below 20 in the 3 big polls FG Wahlen, Infratest and Allensbach, 15-20 should be slightly favored by election day.
2
mcpetrus
2 months ago
YouGov sees a further drop to 21 today. It should be a tight race between 15-20 and 20-25 but I still think it will be 17-19.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
I lose $763 if 20-25 wins BUT I make $97,420 pure profit after expenses if 15-20 wins
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mcpetrus
2 months ago
YouGov sees a further drop to 21 today. It should be a tight race between 15-20 and 20-25 but I still think it will be 17-19.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
And everyone will be like, how the hell did I not buy 15-20 when it was at 19c or even cheaper last week :)
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mcpetrus
2 months ago
YouGov sees a further drop to 21 today. It should be a tight race between 15-20 and 20-25 but I still think it will be 17-19.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
2 months ago
The peak was last week, and it’s all downhill from here. They’ll likely finish between 18.7% and 20.7%, with Merz’s move swaying some voters. The AfD will also significantly underperform among undecided voters, who still make up a large group.
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Oukej
2 months ago
so youre telling me theres a 20% chance a party polling barely over 20% on average gets 25%+ votes?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Even +40 is not off the table… I’m done
0
P0lyhedr0n-
3 months ago
Polling trending towards 25-26%
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
The great Washington Institute confirmed +25 I better start selling my bags…
0
P0lyhedr0n-
3 months ago
Polling trending towards 25-26%
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Just wait, 15-20 will go to +40 and it will be very close on election night, best bet is a hedge 15-20 20-25 - +0 payout if 20-25 hits and HUGE payoff if 15-20 hits
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Think people overestimating stuff right now polls this week will show stagnation and won’t change much this week or. Ext
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
8-9c max till Election Day
2
Mylo
3 months ago
ok I need 25-30% TO GO UP. like VERY SOON. I cant take this anymore. every minute I am checking polymarket and it is going down, no buyers. every hour, check polymarket, no buyers. I cant take this anymore, it is what it is.i have overinvested, by a lot. but I need 25-30% TO GO UP. can ugur DO SOMETHING?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
True :)
1
CrazyNine
3 months ago
thx whoever give me liquidity on AFD 20-25% haha easy cash
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mombil
3 months ago
They have 223/316 seats right now, we could do 30 more options, which would all trade at 0.1-0.5 - thats what other is for.
0
ELONFAN4444
3 months ago
SPD, Green & Linke is missing
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mombil
3 months ago
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/neue-umfrage-merz-effekt-bei-afd-waehlern-679baa58ca2f4b62e94a75d2
0
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
20% of AfD voters can now imagine voting for the CDU/CSU. 50% of Union voters are even more convinced, only 6% have doubts. 33% of AfD voters now have a better opinion of Friedrich Merz, as do 38% of CDU voters. Take the issues away from them and be credible. THAT is what makes the AfD superfluous, no cheap demonstrations. This is by blid Also mcpertus you should see this as well
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
lol compared to last poll from May 15th. +30% secured for sure!
3
FUENTES
3 months ago
🚨 BIG POLL 🚨 AfD EXPLODING 29% (+4) CDU/CSU in TOTAL COLLAPSE 16% (-3) The old system is FALLING APART, the people are WAKING UP! https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1887934237988303050
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
I think the very right (AFD) and very left (Linke) are maxing out right now and would greatly underperform in a poll (taken after the election or whenever they figured out who to vote for)) of the 18% undecided voters. Late deciders tend to not vote "extreme" on both left or right. Compare this to the maximum voter potential https://youtu.be/eIFPL5iAANg?si=HOWaG5wNtB94XznD&t=123 Substract their polling average from those numbers and you will see CDU and SPD tend to have the largest potential.
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Flipadelphia
3 months ago
Q for Germans, what's the character profile of the average remaining undecided voter at this point?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
also to add, around 18% are undecided, in my mind if you are voting AFD you have made up your mind. So if from these 18% undecided only 10-15% vote AFD, they tend to finish below 20%, assuming they are at around 21% with 82% having made up their mind. Merz's move will convince some people, so without a major attack there is now way for the AFD to pull the same 20-21% that have made up their mind from the 18% undecided. Advanced strategy I guess ;)
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mcpetrus
3 months ago
It's really amazing how the 25-30 share holders here cling to increasingly absurd theories. One person expects a “terrorist attack by a foreigner,” another expects “a poll that will change everything.” The smell of the burned money can already be smelled. It should be noted: not a single poll sees the AfD at more than 22%. Alice Weidel performs disastrously in the chancellor polls, getting 13-15%. Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly popular with AfD supporters and will still draw some away. The most likely figure at the moment is 20-21% for the party but 15-20 is massively underrated. I see the chance of this at 45%, 20-25 ... 55%, all others 0%.
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
kommt wohl doch nix mehr heute....
1
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
AllenSBACH ;) Its not out yet
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
New allenbatch 35-20 is new report that came out I believe
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Yea i know, I listen to Gordon every morning. Ill be patient ;)
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kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
But to be fair the last poll 2021 was also published "late" on a friday, 15:54 Uhr - https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/bundestagswahl-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-zwischen-spd-und-union-17552952.html
1
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Also weird to publish that article if you had a poll to post later the same day
0
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
i hope you are right, weird that they just published this article about polls, with no mention of Allensbach: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/umfragen-so-steht-die-union-nach-den-abstimmungen-mit-der-afd-da-110279490.html
1
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
usually they post pretty early, between 6 and 8 AM. Also most of the time they publish Thursday not Friday - so we may not get any numbers today, but I certainly hope we do.
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kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Only 25? 30% min. + Chancellor Weidel...
1
focused
3 months ago
We literally sitting on 25% right now, if you are dumb enough bet against me
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
done big boy
2
focused
3 months ago
We literally sitting on 25% right now, if you are dumb enough bet against me
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Forsa: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Union-sackt-nach-AfD-Eklat-ab-Gruene-und-Linke-legen-zu-article25537158.html
5
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Bild 4... https://www.linkedin.com/posts/patrick-basham-70211841_democracyinstitute-activity-7291195079308771328-KiZx/
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mombil
3 months ago
Wahlkreisprognose AFD now 19.5 - 2% down from 21.5% last time. Zeitraum: 01.02. bis 03.02.2025 - https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Ok dann verstehst du nicht, wie Umfragen funktionieren und ich kann dir sagen, es ist Standard und wird immer gemacht... Sogar der Goldstandard vom "Washington DC Democracy Institute" macht das... https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQF_fS3fhEFVzg/feedshare-shrink_2048_1536/B4EZS.HSKmGYAs-/0/1738356368892?e=1741824000&v=beta&t=dSF4dmo3KXPa-LMVcGvrQiEGgkHcm8eSC227qBPNYSU
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mombil
3 months ago
Wahlkreisprognose AFD now 19.5 - 2% down from 21.5% last time. Zeitraum: 01.02. bis 03.02.2025 - https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Stimmt, wir sollten alle nur das fuer deutsche Wahlumfragen bekannte "Washington DC Democracy Institute" beachten, die liegen bestimmt genau richtig.
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mombil
3 months ago
Wahlkreisprognose AFD now 19.5 - 2% down from 21.5% last time. Zeitraum: 01.02. bis 03.02.2025 - https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Wahlkreisprognose AFD now 19.5 - 2% down from 21.5% last time. Zeitraum: 01.02. bis 03.02.2025 - https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/
6
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
As expected - the will both combined move to 95 by February 23rd
2
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Like 15-20 and 20-25 gaining finally 25-30 seems to be dying off
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
I don’t take advice from NEGATIVE PnL idiot's - look up fuck you party!
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IceT22
3 months ago
I've improved my PnL by FIFTY USDC by master trading this market. Want some of my tips? Look up Lemon Party!
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
TOP 3: FG Wahlen, Infratest Dimap and Allensbach.
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Siggi9933
3 months ago
https://www.freilich-magazin.com/politik/umfrage-hammer-afd-in-neuer-umfrage-bei-25-prozent
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Falsch. FG Wahlen + Infratest-Dimap machen Mo-Mi, Insa Fr-Mo. Nur Forsa macht Di-Mo. YouGov und Ipsos auch, aber die kann man ja eh vergessen. Allensbach hat 10-12 Tage als Zeitraum, duerfte wohl auch diese Woche wieder kommen.
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Siggi9933
3 months ago
https://www.freilich-magazin.com/politik/umfrage-hammer-afd-in-neuer-umfrage-bei-25-prozent
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
mombil
3 months ago
I bought 3900 @30c haha - thank you MayorOfMagaVille
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BussyBlaster
3 months ago
lol bring me back to times where we could buy these NO shares for 70c a piece
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
why hate on anyone? He has his view and puts money behind it, I respect that. I would not respect people talking shit but not putting their money on the line.
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Dutchland
3 months ago
@mombil how come you are so certain on 15-20% ?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
If we all moved to Sweden, our society would collapse. Look, I am not trying to get in an argument here nor do I have the time for that - but in the end it doesnt matter to me if you stop buying or not, 25-30 is vastly overpriced because only one person is keeping the price up here. If you were to keep the price up like that until the election you probably need to put another 400-500K in there, which I know you absolutely could and trust me I am cheering for you to do so :)
1
Dutchland
3 months ago
@mombil how come you are so certain on 15-20% ?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
Its vastly undervalued. Give it 24-48h after Ugur stops buying any 25-30% and it will go back to 13-15%. I am expecting a 2-4% push for the CDU and 1-3% decrease for the AFD for the polls coming AFTER next Friday, the polls before may go in the other direction. We will have AFD finish between 18 and 21%, I paid 18.7c average for 15-20%, which is amazing value. Obviously I also hedge 20-25 a bit, with the goal to go out +-0 if the pull of 20-25%, but a huge cash for 15-20 - the other are just positions I make money with.
1
Dutchland
3 months ago
@mombil how come you are so certain on 15-20% ?
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
mombil
3 months ago
false, check this market it was at 90c Y https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-issue-more-pardons-than-trump/will-biden-issue-more-pardons-than-trump?tid=1737386386481
0
GuyWhoTrades
3 months ago
Just so everyone understands and you can google this easily: There has NEVER in the history of dispute resolution been a dispute that resolved against the vast majority market option. There's actually a bet market betting if this will ever happen lol and it's currently at like 1c. Demonstrated by the Israel invasion market debacle and the government shutdown one both were disputed twice. Guess what? They both resolved where the money was at because that's how the voting system works.
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mombil
3 months ago
Lasst die Spiele beginnen.
9
Trump ends taxes on tips?
mombil
3 months ago
he says and sells ALL his shares haha
0
mombil
3 months ago
SkiLLz = no money to pay for taxes
Trump ends taxes on tips?
mombil
3 months ago
yea sure, something needs to happen to resolve yes and each day nothing happens it will go up. What stuff are you on?
1
Cameroni
3 months ago
Keep dropping it I’ll be more
Trump ends taxes on tips?
mombil
3 months ago
it certainly feels like the market is watching the broadcast, Y heading south
0
mombil
3 months ago
SkiLLz = no money to pay for taxes
Trump ends taxes on tips?
mombil
3 months ago
SkiLLz = no money to pay for taxes
2
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mombil
3 months ago
You really think Poly is that stupid= Afd 25-30 - SPD 15-20 - good lord. At least consider the INSA data about voter potential. If you really believe those percentages you should see a doctor.
4
n/a
3 months ago
CDU/CSU: 50-60% probability. AfD: 25-30% probability. SPD: 15-20% probability. These probabilities are based on the polling data available on Wahlrecht.de and the assumption that 30% of voters are undecided. The projections consider current trends in party support as reflected in recent surveys and estimate how undecided voters might distribute their preferences. EV = +50.2 units per unit wagered X SPD
AfD banned before German election?
mombil
3 months ago
Upvote in discord - market suggestions
0
mombil
3 months ago
Great job Poly, give us a bet like this and not this stupid shit - Which coalition will form the next government of Germany?
AfD banned before German election?
mombil
3 months ago
Will The BSW make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
3
mombil
3 months ago
Great job Poly, give us a bet like this and not this stupid shit - Which coalition will form the next government of Germany?
AfD banned before German election?
mombil
3 months ago
Will The FDP make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
4
mombil
3 months ago
Great job Poly, give us a bet like this and not this stupid shit - Which coalition will form the next government of Germany?
AfD banned before German election?
mombil
3 months ago
Great job Poly, give us a bet like this and not this stupid shit - Which coalition will form the next government of Germany?
1
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Der-SPD-misslingt-bislang-die-Aufholjagd-article25504037.html
1
Siggi9933
3 months ago
It will be funny when the polls turn to 23-24% and everbody will sell 15-20
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mombil
3 months ago
latest poll from 10min ago AFD 19%
4
Siggi9933
3 months ago
It will be funny when the polls turn to 23-24% and everbody will sell 15-20
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?
mombil
3 months ago
they all have one thing in common. A huge positive PNL - go and figure why
5
Hyundai
3 months ago
Imagine betting 100k on No... Crazy people
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
mombil
3 months ago
thats a blant lie, he never promised or even talked about this in 2016. Proof me wrong
3
RioDaYungGambler
3 months ago
So why exactly would Trump pardon a famous profiteer of the drug trade?
Romania Presidential Election
mombil
3 months ago
indeed free $0.026 for you, which inflation will kill until this markets concludes. If you another 100 shares you may be able to buy an egg from those profits before inflation.
3
messa
4 months ago
free money
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mombil
4 months ago
Fair point, you are absolutely correct
0
Asyouwish
4 months ago
Question is: What is meant by "over 15%". Do 15,1% count as over or do it need to be at least 16%?
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mombil
4 months ago
at least 15.1, as the results from the Federal Returning Officer are only 1 digit after the decimal point
1
Asyouwish
4 months ago
Question is: What is meant by "over 15%". Do 15,1% count as over or do it need to be at least 16%?
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
mombil
4 months ago
Just curious why you think Bartsch, who was almost 10% behind in 2021, would win this year? Gysi is the only very safe direct-seat. Ramelow does have a shot to be fair. Pellmann won by 4% in 2021 and Schwerdtner who takes over Loetzschs district will have a very hard time too. Loetzsch may have won the district by 6,4%, but Schwerdtner is a new candidate and keep in mind for all of the 5, the BSW was not there in 2021 and will cut A LOT of votes. So I am obviously having a hard time seeing 5, yet alone 3 direct-seats, my guess is 2 at most, but we will see :)
3
TomSawyer
4 months ago
Why I'm betting "yes" :) a) It's pretty safe that Die Linke will enter the Bundestag. They have five strong direct-seat contenders: Gregor Gysi, Dietmar Bartsch, Bodo Ramelow, Soeren Pellmann, and Ines Schwerdtner. I believe all five will succeed, though winning only three seats is enough. b) To be a Fraktion, they don't need 5% of the vote; they need 5% of the seats. This will happen if they reach about 4.25% of the vote. In most polls, they're at around 4%.
Will Germany's AfD make it into government?
mombil
4 months ago
Correct + you get a $5 reward. The other members of the administration have been sworn in at around 10AM today. https://www.landtag.sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/sitzungskalender/sitzung/2385
0
Mr.Eggplant
4 months ago
This can resolve, right? If you resolve, post a $750 bond and nobody disputes, you just get your money back and nothing else happens?
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
mombil
5 months ago
Click resolution, Propose resolution, connect your wallet and lose $750 for a "P4" too early request. Or wait until April 30th to realize your $1 gain from this market.
0
turewoigjfdkls;gfds
5 months ago
Why is Daniel Penny an option? and who is stupid enough to choose it? Presidential pardons aren't for state crimes
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mombil
5 months ago
Hint: Not the 4-5% GOP ur holding.
2
marketbibi
5 months ago
I don't know what the final result will be.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Nie mehr 1. Liga!
2
Godsylla
5 months ago
No new election!
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Finally a common sense comment - not from bad parents. Enjoy your life and winnings from this market in full trains. We know how the rabbit runs.
1
Megajin
5 months ago
Ok, I read a lot of smart comments here on the subject. Yes, the target date is February 23 and yes, December 27 has been mentioned as a possible resolution date. BUT all this can only happen if the vote of confidence is lost. The 20th Bundestag has 733 members. The SPD and the Greens will support Scholz, that has already been clarified. That is already 324 votes. The Left Party would end up with less than 5% in new elections and thus be kicked out of the Bundestag. They may not want that and would vote for Scholz to delay the election. There are also non-party politicians whose vote is also unclear. Furthermore, it is only clear that the CDU and FDP are completely against Scholz. If the AfD also causes chaos, the vote of confidence could be positive. It remains exciting and I continue to hold on to NO.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
I think I spider. Can you read the law? Do you really think the Bundestag is not able to act after being formally dissolved? If so, you don’t have all cups in the cupboard. And now don’t play the offended liversausage. I get foxdevilswild-reading stuff like this. Holla, the forest-fairy!
9
fbeezy
5 months ago
Pretty sure that the bundestag will not dissolve this year. Energy prices will rapidly increase Jan 1st and the bundestag needs to have the option to pass emergency legislation in that case.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Tell no cheese. My hair stand to mountain listening to arguments saying this is against the law. You look stupid out of the laundry after Dez. 27th.
3
5635f
5 months ago
guys it can't happen in 2024 there is no time pls use common sense lol it would be even against laws lol
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
And sorry, my english is not the yellow from the egg, but it goes. My fellow Germans will understand me ;)
9
Selfmade420
5 months ago
So, yuh waan di connection wid it dissolving in 2025, not 2024? Hear mi out: timing is everything, seen? Just like wid di Bundestag, yuh haffi wait fi di right moment to mek big moves. If yuh rush it too early, like 2024, tings might fall apart quick. Same ting inna di bedroom when it come to rimjobs. Yuh haffi take yuh time, no rush. If yuh go too early or not ready, it might end in disaster! But if yuh wait till di right moment, like 2025, everything smooth, an' everybody satisfied. So, both about patience an' makin' sure di timing perfect, mi bredda!
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Do you have a bird? You really think the AFD will vote in large numbers for Scholz? I think my pig is whistling. You have one at the waffle. The Linke has publicly said, that the party consensus is to vote Scholz out. They will be gone anyway after the next election and they know it. There is no plausible vote to reach 42 votes besides SPD and Green. I see black for you + every NO holder but enjoy your life in full trains and go where the pepper grows. Sponge over it - we will see soon. Sorry, my englisch is under all pig.
2
Megajin
5 months ago
Ok, I read a lot of smart comments here on the subject. Yes, the target date is February 23 and yes, December 27 has been mentioned as a possible resolution date. BUT all this can only happen if the vote of confidence is lost. The 20th Bundestag has 733 members. The SPD and the Greens will support Scholz, that has already been clarified. That is already 324 votes. The Left Party would end up with less than 5% in new elections and thus be kicked out of the Bundestag. They may not want that and would vote for Scholz to delay the election. There are also non-party politicians whose vote is also unclear. Furthermore, it is only clear that the CDU and FDP are completely against Scholz. If the AfD also causes chaos, the vote of confidence could be positive. It remains exciting and I continue to hold on to NO.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Have you them still all? Don’t bring me on the palm. Let the church in the village. You can’t see the forest infront of many trees. I hold that not out!
2
Selfmade420
5 months ago
So, yuh waan di connection wid it dissolving in 2025, not 2024? Hear mi out: timing is everything, seen? Just like wid di Bundestag, yuh haffi wait fi di right moment to mek big moves. If yuh rush it too early, like 2024, tings might fall apart quick. Same ting inna di bedroom when it come to rimjobs. Yuh haffi take yuh time, no rush. If yuh go too early or not ready, it might end in disaster! But if yuh wait till di right moment, like 2025, everything smooth, an' everybody satisfied. So, both about patience an' makin' sure di timing perfect, mi bredda!
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Herr lass Hirn regnen
2
Isildur2
5 months ago
Some serious morons in here, im actually done explaining why it is stupid to vote for no, if you want to piss away your money, go ahead, Polymarket is a tool to distribute money from stupid people to smart ones. For all others to know: If the Vertrauensfrage (question of trust) on December 16th goes through, the bet is essentially won, because to have elections on February 23rd, Steinmeier HAS to dissolve the Bundestag before New Years Eve. This election date has already been published and all parties have starting to announce candidates and started campaigning. Rescheduling this, would lead to further loss of trust in parlamentary processes that the people in charge will not allow. The likelihood for the Vertrauensfrage to fail (in order to have elections) is realisticly 97-99% unless there is a unique inside plot within the parliment that will go down in history.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
"personally as a politician I’d prefer ... more time to prepare for an election" you do realize that this is the main argument FOR dissolving in 2024 right?
1
Isildur2
5 months ago
Its actually free money to go on "yes": The AfD has no realistic shot to manipulate the "Vertrauensfrage", as the big parts of the fraction, as well as EVERYONE from the Greens and SPD would to vote for Scholz, which will certainly not happen. President Steinmeier agreed(!) already to dissolve the Bundestag on December 27th in order to have elections on February 23rd. The only thing that could prevent this from happens was if Scholz won the Vertrauensfrage somehow, which can actually be ruled out as he doesnt even have the support of his own fraction in full anymore. Easy money "yes"
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Entweder bist du blind auf beiden Augen oder einfach nur bloed.
5
n/a
5 months ago
Guys really think germany will stay without a parlament in december till the new one is voted? Who will lead the country in this time? The old bundestag!
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Und verkauft haha
1
Xendetor
5 months ago
alles beim Alten.
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
5 months ago
What happened?
0
RobinNakamoto
5 months ago
I'm telling you, this is gonna end up Trump by 1.0-1.5%
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
5 months ago
I think the recount is only for the Senate race, because the margin in the presidential race is more than 0.5%, so no recount is triggered.
3
trixy
5 months ago
How do you guys see the 26k dem votes potentially being removed from the recount?
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
5 months ago
haha you SOLD shares yesterday dude
2
walterbuffett
5 months ago
Buying more now
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
What I think doesnt matter, the press release from the person deciding this says he will decide QUICKLY - kind of more important than what you, I or anyone else thinks.
2
mombil
5 months ago
Steinmeier will RASCH entscheiden: "Der Bundespraesident hat deutlich gemacht, dass er fuer den Fall, dass der Bundestag dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entzieht, rasch ueber eine Aufloesung entscheiden wird." Source: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2024/11/241112-Gespraech-Fraktionsvorsitzende.html
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
"The Federal President has made it clear that if the Bundestag withdraws its confidence in the Federal Chancellor, he will quickly decide on a dissolution."
2
mombil
5 months ago
Steinmeier will RASCH entscheiden: "Der Bundespraesident hat deutlich gemacht, dass er fuer den Fall, dass der Bundestag dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entzieht, rasch ueber eine Aufloesung entscheiden wird." Source: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2024/11/241112-Gespraech-Fraktionsvorsitzende.html
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Steinmeier will RASCH entscheiden: "Der Bundespraesident hat deutlich gemacht, dass er fuer den Fall, dass der Bundestag dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entzieht, rasch ueber eine Aufloesung entscheiden wird." Source: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2024/11/241112-Gespraech-Fraktionsvorsitzende.html
4
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
5 months ago
How are you doing? I told you what happened would happen
0
kt-dazy
6 months ago
remain count from 90000 to 55000 , MOV up from 1.96% to 2.14% , trend is good
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
5 months ago
haha this aged well sir - I argued with facts, but u wouldnt want to listen
0
MOA
6 months ago
Lol all these morons getting manipulated by a dude making up stats and replying with his fake account that has 0 balance and activity. Spread is still 2.1 Trump, spread is the same since last Thursday and built to Trumps favor Everytime new votes came in. 97% of the states mail in ballots were counted as of last Wednesday as seen here https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2024-11-09/pennsylvania-election-2024-mail-ballot-count-faster-2020.
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
5 months ago
Ja, da ist Heilige Drei Koenige Feiertag
4
Godsylla
5 months ago
06-01.2025
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/pennsylvania-president/
0
sdfnq123
6 months ago
On Kalshi the rules say "rounded to two decimal points". This could really flip the odds. Anyone knows how it looks like here, or is there a way to check it?
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Margin in my spreadsheet- votes here
0
sdfnq123
6 months ago
On Kalshi the rules say "rounded to two decimal points". This could really flip the odds. Anyone knows how it looks like here, or is there a way to check it?
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
I bought my 3 yes bets mostly for 3-4c, when i realized it would go to 1.5-2 i bought some Nos +2 and more 1.5-2 @ around 30-40 I think
0
MOA
6 months ago
Lol all these morons getting manipulated by a dude making up stats and replying with his fake account that has 0 balance and activity. Spread is still 2.1 Trump, spread is the same since last Thursday and built to Trumps favor Everytime new votes came in. 97% of the states mail in ballots were counted as of last Wednesday as seen here https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2024-11-09/pennsylvania-election-2024-mail-ballot-count-faster-2020.
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
I wouldnt worry about it but if nothing is stated in the market rules, the will not round and everything smaller 2 will win it for me (including 1,99999) and larger or equal 2 will win it for you. I think it wont be close at all, probably 1.8-1.9 - we are at 1,986523178 right now.
0
sdfnq123
6 months ago
On Kalshi the rules say "rounded to two decimal points". This could really flip the odds. Anyone knows how it looks like here, or is there a way to check it?
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
There is no instability. The Bundestag stays in power until a new Bundestag has been elected. Check Art. 39 Abs. 1 Satz 3 GG https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/gg/art_39.html
2
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
if anything an earlier dissolution brings final certainty about the election date and gives everyone more time until February 23rd.
1
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
This is false thinking. The date for the dissolution does not affect the election date, which is locked in for February 23rd.
1
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm
1
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
https://www.tvo.de/termin-fuer-neuwahlen-steht-deutschland-waehlt-im-februar-einen-neuen-bundestag-727129/
1
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
"Die Aufloesung des Parlaments stuende dann am 27. Dezember an, sollten die Abgeordneten dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entziehen" https://www.ksta.de/region/leverkusen/stadt-leverkusen/leverkusen-vorgezogene-bundestagswahl-aemter-muessen-sich-beeilen-896919
1
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
6
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
after we get the updated doc from PA Gov at around 5 PM EST. we know were we stand, but I think many more votes are still missing and the direction were this goes, as I have been trying to explain here for days, is pretty obvious
1
Joris999
6 months ago
just dipped below 2% margin. at 1.998 atm
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
Bullshit - no link no proof - ZDF says 27th
4
n/a
6 months ago
according to reuters it will not be before the 3rd of January
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
Planned for 27.12 https://www.zdf.de/assets/grafik-vertrauensfrage-neuwahl-bundestag-100~1280xauto
1
mombil
6 months ago
According to ZDF they chose December 27th
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
Scholz soll am 16 Dezember die Vertrauensfrage stellen. Entzieht ihm der Bundestag das Vertrauen, soll das Parlament am 27 Dezember aufgeloest werden
1
mombil
6 months ago
According to ZDF they chose December 27th
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-termin-februar-ampel-aus-neuwahl-100.html
6
mombil
6 months ago
According to ZDF they chose December 27th
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
mombil
6 months ago
According to ZDF they chose December 27th
13
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Shown in the table below are absentee and mail-in ballot counts for the November 5th, 2024, Presidential Election. The table shows the number of absentee and mail-in ballots recorded as returned in SURE (this number will change as ballots are received through the deadline and are entered by counties). County boards of elections are working on counting and reconciling the ballots, and in most cases will not finish counting mail-in and absentee ballots on election night. Ballots received through 8pm on Election Day will be entered and reported after the earlier ballots have been recorded. Ballots returned are being pre-canvassed and canvassed until a final determination is made. The count will be reflected only after the county makes the adjustments in SURE. This may lead to fluctuations in the percentage remaining to be counted. Hence, this dashboard should be considered as an approximation. Counties are in the process of reconciling ballots recorded in SURE.
0
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
the remaining mail-ins left in that doc are the absolute minimum (0.51% of 110487 is 564), check the text next to the 99.05% in the doc on page 2 here: https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
0
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
shocker, its even 99% counted (and I've said that before) according to PA state data: https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf - but guess what it was 98.72% on friday, so everything that came in before were the missing votes in Cambria. Mail-ins will drop in tomorrow and we will see :) and if u are talking about me in ur comment I invite you to show me where i made up stats
0
MOA
6 months ago
Lol all these morons getting manipulated by a dude making up stats and replying with his fake account that has 0 balance and activity. Spread is still 2.1 Trump, spread is the same since last Thursday and built to Trumps favor Everytime new votes came in. 97% of the states mail in ballots were counted as of last Wednesday as seen here https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2024-11-09/pennsylvania-election-2024-mail-ballot-count-faster-2020.
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
even though I bought about half of the shares at 3c, Im pretty sure im correct here and will def not sell before its resolved (if i dont see any data that would change my mind)
1
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
What I do is download the doc for each day, check the WA page which votes come in and compare it with the doc of the next day. Ive been doing that since thursday and this leads me to think my bet is the better choice, obv I could be wrong to be fair but I trust my gut here. Actually this method is the only real thing we all can do, because its all state data and no estimates by any news organisation about how many votes are left
1
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
its absolutely does, but the senate race bet is a 0.9c bet I put 20 bucks in, so dont take it too seriously, im just waiting for a little pop to 3-4c to sell :)
1
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
scroll down to Election dashboard here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/pennsylvania-president/ You see the amount of votes, how they split and where they are from. the 62,5% for Washington County can be found everywhere - she is, as expected, outperforming Trump hugely with Mail-in ballots and as of PA State data only Mail-ins + provisional and army etc. are outstanding https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
0
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
1
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
seems to be done according to official PA gov data - Page 5 of the linked pdf above - 100% precincts reported - https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
1
sdfnq123
6 months ago
did some estimations based on the Mail Votes split per county for the 26k votes left: TRUMP +8k; KAMALA +18k; REST +245. This should move the margin to 1.94% :/ Did I miss anything though? Perhaps Military votes?
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Close to my calculation, but I expect more than 26K mail ins left, the county estimates are the absolute minimum (amount received by election night)
1
sdfnq123
6 months ago
did some estimations based on the Mail Votes split per county for the 26k votes left: TRUMP +8k; KAMALA +18k; REST +245. This should move the margin to 1.94% :/ Did I miss anything though? Perhaps Military votes?
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
mombil
6 months ago
Domer snaped all the no shares - congrats!
0
IK3
6 months ago
I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, to join the Trump Administration, which is currently in formation. I very much enjoyed and appreciated working with them previously, and would like to thank them for their service to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Who will be inaugurated as President?
mombil
6 months ago
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3 percent chance of death? because that is what ur saying basically
0
k0nr4d
6 months ago
"Other" votes are strongly undervalued right now. If you look at a life expectancy, You will find that there's a 5,3% chance of dieing aged 78-79, so 1 in 19 of that age will die in that particular year. We're at 3,6% right now without even factoring in other risks he faces.
Who will be inaugurated as President?
mombil
6 months ago
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3% of death? because that is what ur saying basically
0
k0nr4d
6 months ago
"Other" votes are strongly undervalued right now. If you look at a life expectancy, You will find that there's a 5,3% chance of dieing aged 78-79, so 1 in 19 of that age will die in that particular year. We're at 3,6% right now without even factoring in other risks he faces.
Who will be inaugurated as President?
mombil
6 months ago
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3% of dying? because that is what ur arguing
0
k0nr4d
6 months ago
"Other" votes are strongly undervalued right now. If you look at a life expectancy, You will find that there's a 5,3% chance of dieing aged 78-79, so 1 in 19 of that age will die in that particular year. We're at 3,6% right now without even factoring in other risks he faces.
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
why do you say everything is counted? Official state data shows there were at least 20K mail in ballots left. When I compare todays posted mail in data in my spreadsheet with the missing state data from yesterday it should be rather 32-35K and not 20K left. We will see, 80/20 seems a fairish price right now
0
SmileRich
6 months ago
Atlas intel has final results and its 2.1%
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Can you read the small print? "Final result based on New York Times forecast as of 11/07 24" https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1854968840616026541/photo/1 - the forecast went off after they called the race.
0
SmileRich
6 months ago
Atlas intel has final results and its 2.1%
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
not yet sir but u can buy it at 0.1c soon
0
Trygve
6 months ago
2.0-2.5 is so free lmao
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
NBC has the Trump votes in from the last 2 Cambria drops, but is missing the Harris votes - AP CNN all have them in, 2.1166 margin or 8092 votes ahead - more than 30K mail in ballots left, a lot from the big cities, Cambria seems to be done now 125 of 125 precincts have reported
0
kt-dazy
6 months ago
remain count from 90000 to 55000 , MOV up from 1.96% to 2.14% , trend is good
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
Its astonishing that so many people bet on this site without knowing the numbers. Phily county says they received at least 202713 mail-in ballots: https://vote.phila.gov/news/2024/10/28/2024-general-mail-in-and-absentee-ballots-status-update/ - if u do the math from whats in the system https://vote.phila.gov/results/ it proves there are +5000 votes left, probably more since the number on the first link is the lowest possible amount
0
horseshoe-reality
6 months ago
It's pretty much confirmed now
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
mombil
6 months ago
lol dude, 3029 votes as of now to close the gap (2,043703682% is the margin) - Phily County has another 5235 left to post, Montgomery 3098, Allegheny 2183 - it may be a coinflip but certainly not confirmed
1
horseshoe-reality
6 months ago
It's pretty much confirmed now
# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)
mombil
6 months ago
why do only lifetime PnL negative people make comments like this?
3
95WinRate
6 months ago
sometimes this place is just free money
Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?
mombil
6 months ago
NYT +14 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html UNF +10% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20241021_FL_UNF.pdf and Activote 11 https://www.activote.net/trump-extends-lead-in-florida-2/ there are many more out there
0
figman
6 months ago
Fun and friendly reminder that polls are showing Trump is, at most, 7% ahead of Harris.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
495 votes for Harris = 49,5 = 50 - 1 vote short of 49-49
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
TIPP down to 49-47
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
Joined the party late this week and the risk reward for shares over 60c like for 1.5-1.9 is not worth it in these RCP market, there is too much that can go wrong
1
EdgyUsername
6 months ago
@mombil thanks! If you don't mind me asking, why mainly 1-1.4. I feel like I'm missing something that you have thought of. Is it in anticipation of changes due to tomorrow's Rasmussen update?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
finally updated
1
EdgyUsername
6 months ago
So it's still 1.6. How are they fucking us?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
1.5
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
Actually wanted to avoid betting the RCP markets again but it is what it is haha. CNN is long overdue and they were among best poll for Trump last time it dropped - Atlas should also drop within the next 4 days or so. I also have NY Post on my watchlist
1
EdgyUsername
6 months ago
So what other polls are you expecting, besides Rasmussen. I hear talk (some of it my own) about Atlas.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
6 months ago
Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5
2
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
mombil
7 months ago
Current rally is Scranton, the market one is Reading which will be later
0
DopeFrancis
7 months ago
why is tampon at 44%? he said it like 3 times
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
mombil
7 months ago
free advice: it is 0 - because the scranton rally is not the rally this market is about, its the one after
0
ArthurMorganZ
7 months ago
frack count?
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
mombil
7 months ago
lol wrong rally bud
0
MasterMindful
7 months ago
TAMPON TIM
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
mombil
7 months ago
wrong rally buddy
1
Jpp30
7 months ago
lets go tampon
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mombil
7 months ago
lol, this is not how Polymarket works - you will learn quickly
0
Edonatsu
7 months ago
Not a healthy competition at all. Leaks all around social media, and near the end even famous news media leaked the conclusion. Where to dispute this?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
mombil
7 months ago
Im sorry for your $16 loss.
3
retardiopxwx
7 months ago
FU##ING INSIDERS are top 2 holders for other/multiple. It's OVER
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
2.0 now with Ipsos +2
1
Speculo
7 months ago
2,2 next update.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Morning Consult remains at + 5 (51-46) this week
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
I wonder if they have the shame to take the RV numbers this time as it is only 48-46 - in the past they have always used the LV numbers which are 49-46
2
Speculo
7 months ago
2,2 next update.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
No it will stay 2.1 if no other polls drop - RCP always rounds the candidates numbers first, so it will be 2.1
1
Speculo
7 months ago
2,2 next update.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
So u know about it before it spreads around Twitter - NYT/Siena: Harris 49 - Trump 46
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
+ our dear RCP dev and the mad RCP bias towards Trump - btw. the Data For Progress Poll (Oct. 4th - +3 Harris https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2024/9/dfp_post_vp_debate_tabs.pdf) is listed in the "framework" of the site but not visible nor counting towards the average...
1
Speculo
7 months ago
True, that's because there is a Siena College (usually bad for Harris) and a bad Rasmussen for sure in the pipe.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
The RCP scam continues
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Marist which just dropped
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
Besides Rasmussen, what other polls do you think we might get before the deadline, if any?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Another bias: This time RCP takes the "Combined Presidential Vote " for Emerson (only +1 not +2) last time they took the "Select choice" poll which had her up 2 instead of 3 with the combined presidential vote they are using this time, it doesnt get any more biased than this
3
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Sadly yes. This market is essentially just about when they drop that precious Atlas Poll, it could be today, as I expect some new polls in general, but it could also be up another 1-2 weeks...
1
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
They'll build a little shrine to their little Atlas Shrugged poll
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
If they drop the Atlas Intel it will update to exactly 2.5 👀 But they may keep that poll forever
3
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
@aaron28a I dont think it will be 1-1.4, but i think the chance is higher than the 3c i bought, RCP is just too unpredictable, they just ditched yahoo news and keep atlas which is older
0
mombil
7 months ago
depends on what polls RCP randomly leaves up and which get dropped after just 1 week...
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
There we go: newer Yahoo news +4 Harris dropped, older Atlas Intel +3 Trump kept
4
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
depends on what polls RCP randomly leaves up and which get dropped after just 1 week...
2
DmitriyF
7 months ago
It's most likely going to be consistent with last week's results.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
They will probably also remove the +4 Harris Yahoo News and keep the +3 Trump Atlas forever
1
UncleSmurf
7 months ago
RVP dropped another 9/13 poll with Harris up (DFP) this morning. And continued to leave in the 9/12 poll with trump up. Beautiful.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Do ur calculation for 9/12 - 9/18 - daily average is - 3.2 but they put out +2
1
432
7 months ago
Rassmussen will be +3 today and if they take the last 3 out which are outdated its 1.9
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
also last 3 out makes it 2.3...
2
432
7 months ago
Rassmussen will be +3 today and if they take the last 3 out which are outdated its 1.9
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Rasmussen was on average 3.4 last week but still made it +2 - its the same magic box RCP is, you just dont know what happens
1
432
7 months ago
Rassmussen will be +3 today and if they take the last 3 out which are outdated its 1.9
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
everything is possible tbh, if they ditch the last 2 polls it goes up to 2.5 haha but also 1.9 is possible, you just dont know what they do
2
Randomchooser
7 months ago
love rcp unpredictable polls counting system!
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Why not bring back the dropped polls?
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
he is not done yet i guess, last thursday was insane
1
papasmurf
7 months ago
Lmao the intern never fails
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
I dont think anyone can see those completely random poll drops coming, there is no logic or system behind it...
1
PrinceHal
7 months ago
literalyl can't believe the market didn't see that coming
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
what exactly? RCP dev just randomly trashing around 8 polls together?
1
PrinceHal
7 months ago
literalyl can't believe the market didn't see that coming
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
the other two gone makes it 2.5 - 3+ is a stretch right now, she would need 4 new polls +5 each
0
CansGonzalez
7 months ago
the other two will be gone by Friday. No longer relevant. 3+ Harris
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Harvard-Harris 9/4 - 9/5 in the trash now which makes it 2.3 - but they still keep the Emerson and NPR which are just as old
4
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
RCP Dev is eating lunch and taking a shit, he will continue his shit show afterwards
5
MrNFT
7 months ago
i think it will end at this point lmao
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Well everything is possible today it seems... i hope not
1
MalikNabers
7 months ago
Barring something completely unforeseen. 2.0 is going to need a new poll +1 Kamala or worse
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
absolute Joke of a pollster +6 -6 +6 +2 +8 - and they average it +2 as it should be +3.4 lol and they constantly complain in Twitter about how bad other pollster are
2
diddy
7 months ago
Mitchell also said it’s +2 Trump again
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
WTF is going on today, RCP fucking up, Rasmussen staying flat after they published different data? idk what to believe anymore
1
432
7 months ago
Rasmussen stays at +2 WTF
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1836766518312673781
0
mombil
7 months ago
Rasmussen just now: There has been no change in the race for the White House as former President Donald Trump maintains a narrow ead over Vice President Kamala Harris. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Rasmussen just now: There has been no change in the race for the White House as former President Donald Trump maintains a narrow ead over Vice President Kamala Harris. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
3
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
the old +1 Trump was removed
0
Malganis
7 months ago
I dont understand the move to 2.1 but how does adding an extra +0 poll increases the average?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
RCP is on it, counting the NYT Siena poll twice, so it updated to 1.9 instead of 2.1 - are they serious?
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Rasmussen +3 would reverse the NYT Poll and we are back to 2.0
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
Great work on this! In the scenario was at Rasmussen is at +3 Trump for the week, where would that leave us at IF no other polls come out?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
its probably priced correctly, she would need 3 strong polls with around +5 each
1
Speculo
7 months ago
do you think 2,5+ is dead dead ?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Rasmussen is at exactly +2 right now (+8/days). it will need a +5 the last day to make it to +3 (+13/5 days)
1
432
7 months ago
Rassmussen will reverse it
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
https://scri.siena.edu/2024/09/19/new-york-times-siena-national-survey-of-likely-voters-9-19-24/
0
mombil
7 months ago
Fresh NYT/Siena Poll: Post-Debate – Harris vs. Trump Tied Nationally, 47-47%
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Will update to 2.1 later with the new NYT Siena Poll (47-47)
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Fresh NYT/Siena Poll: Post-Debate – Harris vs. Trump Tied Nationally, 47-47%
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
mombil
7 months ago
Most likely +2
1
debased
7 months ago
now we wait rasmussen
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
mombil
7 months ago
GME FedWatch Update 65-35
1
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
mombil
7 months ago
Trump + 0.1 (59.7) today
3
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
mombil
8 months ago
The fight is on - BasedBoi vs. YatSen
1
Trump fires campaign manager?
mombil
8 months ago
i say THANK YOU
0
MicR
8 months ago
Someone bought Yes at 35c and then a minute later at 60c, pretty bad deal on that second trade 😁
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
its 1.4666 now - i guess goes to 1.5
2
mombil
8 months ago
Morning Consult +5
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
Morning Consult +5
2
BallzToTheWalz
8 months ago
some1 just dumped 5k of 1-1.4 and bought 5k+ of 1.5-1.9 .... wtf do they know that we dont?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
ur counting Rasmussen twice buddy (the -1 after +2)
1
MrNFT
8 months ago
Existing Polls: (3 - 1 + 0 + 1 + 2 - 1 + 3 + 0 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 1) New Polls: (-2 + 5). Existing + New = 20. 20 / (13 existing + 2 new) = 1.33
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
Rasmussen: +2 Trump (49/47) = down to 1.2
0
How many viewers will the debate get?
mombil
8 months ago
BLOOMBERG: Tuesday’s debate between Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump attracted an audience of 57.7 million US viewers on eight major TV networks — beating the turnout for President Joe Biden’s ill-fated performance in June. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-11/harris-trump-debate-s-57-7-million-viewers-top-trump-biden-tally
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
I believe the new YouGov Poll for the Economist 45-45 down from +2 Harris last time will not count in the RCP average :(
0
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
mombil
8 months ago
easy win
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
fair point, not sure about that
1
Speculo
8 months ago
there is another candidate are you sure this is included ?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
Marist is +1 Kamala, not included so far but will be later, so will it will go from 1.18 (13/11) to 1.166 (14/11)
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
when are polls old enough to be removed?
0
sdiff123
8 months ago
Rasmussen Trump +3 or +4 poll, and Ipsos Harris +4 poll being removed due to being old by the time market resolves. Easy 0-0.9
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
lol idk whats wrong with my positive PNL or my shares, I started seriously trading after Joe dropped out, been consistently been winning since then, Kamala veepstakes went well also
0
NoNoiseKnifeOnly
8 months ago
1.2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
as I said. Rasmussen is +4,5 Trump right now which would lead to 0.8-0.9
0
NoNoiseKnifeOnly
8 months ago
1.2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
Rasmussen preview: https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1832959456818127025
0
mombil
8 months ago
Pew Research Poll will bring it down to 1.2! New Rasmussen poll seems to be at least +3 Trump (from +1)
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
Pew Research Poll will bring it down to 1.2! New Rasmussen poll seems to be at least +3 Trump (from +1)
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
mombil
8 months ago
New HarvardHarris poll (50-50) will bring it down to 1.3
1
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
mombil
8 months ago
There was a thing called COVID19 in 2020... Obviously thats why they didnt shake hands during the 2020 VP debate
1
jamesclove
8 months ago
Pence and Kamala didn't shake hands, and they didn't have much beef
Trump nominates Tulsi Gabbard to Cabinet?
mombil
8 months ago
Sir he announced to make them co chair for the transition team, that is as far away from a cabinet position as a cleaner is from being CEO of a company
2
eb..
8 months ago
the odds here should be as high as 0.51, which is the odds for trump to win. which is the second part of the bet. because the first part of the bet, to nominate her and rfk, if that was a bet on its own, that alone should already go to 90-100, since he announced it already. So considering everything, then maybe 46-51. I would say.
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
Walz has no public schedule for tomorrow. - https://x.com/bbierschbach/status/1820669270876897316
1
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
Secret Service just picked Walz up: https://x.com/DanGreenMN/status/1820583530226684242 https://x.com/DanGreenMN/status/1820585864369406221
2
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
sounds like a reliable source son
0
winbet
9 months ago
source x.com/altnavigation/status/1820503846952571104
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
obviously he would not cancel that before the announcement, whoever the pick is.
0
0x11F0ceb5aD608E9Ab29d9507588df3a92579b5Eb-1721599133047
9 months ago
Walz has a speaking event tn that has not been canceled
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
Me too :)
1
Yehudi
9 months ago
Thanks for the massive Buttigieg discount there. I think I am ready now; see you tomorrow.
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
Yes he was, but what happened before or after? One event got cancelled - https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/1819176273060467111
0
0x87250973131222DdF2c7Fb5E293BD96f945466E8-1722308323158
9 months ago
He’s in Indiana confirmed
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
I feel sorry for you if you believe that Harris would inform the Mayor of Philadelphia 4 days prior to an event in her city about her decision 😬
1
CumalaHorris
9 months ago
shapiro won LMFAO democrats lost https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1819478432373526576
Democratic VP nominee?
mombil
9 months ago
NEWS: Harris and @PeteButtigieg met today for about 90 minutes about the VP job, sources tell me. The meeting was not at Harris's home in Washington. Source: https://x.com/JarrettRenshaw/status/1819490069608353945
0
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
pretty simple dude: https://tradingview.com/chart/YcqM922J/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT 1 min candle at 13:05/06 or 1:05/06 will do it both
0
armadillo
9 months ago
how the F this resolved to yes? which source are you guys getting those information?
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
will you pay the wasted $750 after the decline that dispute? Read the post below and you will understand there is no need to dispute unless you want to burn $750
0
Binary.Capital
9 months ago
don't have time, someone please dispute this
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
For the people that bet no, at least you will gain some knowledge with your loss. There are 4 different prices 1.) O for opening 2.) H for HIGH (!!!!) 3.) L for Low 4. C for closing - rules say clearly the "high" price needs to be 70K.
3
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
You should not bet if u dont understand the rules. There are 4 different prices 1.) O for opening 2.) H for HIGH (!!!!) 3.) L for Low 4. C for closing - your welcome
1
MartianMarketMaker
9 months ago
final high was under 70k not yet bitches
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
sir it is high price not closing price for a 1 min candle
0
MartianMarketMaker
9 months ago
final high was under 70k not yet bitches
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
75K next after a quick cooldown
1
What price will $BTC reach in July?
mombil
9 months ago
75K and 80K are sadly unlikely but 3% in +80hrs is still more than doable, 37% chance atm seems about just right.
1
What will Trump say during his Bitcoin Conference speech?
mombil
9 months ago
well you need it with ur -$8,590.46 profit
1
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
9 months ago
wrong, YOU paid ME, you dumb motherfucker LMFAOOOO
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
mombil
9 months ago
congrats, how did u survive until the very end?
0
LaCuriosidad
9 months ago
YES