#1769
Rank
16
Comments
11
Likes Received
9
Likes Given
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
yes, looking at the old files it's a decent likelihood (maybe like 10-30 percent of recent months, depending on what you call recent) have had a modification of 1 degree celsius
0
mango-lassi
9 months ago
Can July '23 data be modified to 118 during this release? I guess that's the only scenario where Yes might win
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
I will say... something like 85% of the land data is out and unless the water data affect things, it's not looking good for the Yesses
1
gopfanfan
9 months ago
Does anyone have a newer version of https://data.giss.nasa.gov/pub/gistemp/SBBX.ERSSTv5.gz ? That one is from 2024-07-06
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
unfortunately I think the link for the source of that data is broken, it'll be tough to run
0
gopfanfan
9 months ago
Does anyone have a newer version of https://data.giss.nasa.gov/pub/gistemp/SBBX.ERSSTv5.gz ? That one is from 2024-07-06
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
This is lower troposphere anomalies, which are very different from surface air anomalies.
2
BenCM
9 months ago
Part of the "Yes" case? https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/uah-global-temperature-update-for-july-2024-0-85-deg-c/
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
I almost want to buy more no shares lol. Maybe I will
6
tomn
9 months ago
So just from a very high level perspective, we typically see GISTEMP anomolies are lower than for ERA5. If we see ERA5 data coming in lower than 2023, it is likely that we then would also see the same for GISTEMP. I get there are error and a range of outcomes, but find it hard to believe the market should be different than 60/40 for "yes".
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
Doesn't this resolve to "No" if it's the same as last year, not 50-50? That's what the rules would seem to imply.
1
tacotownz
9 months ago
gonna guess 121 is the number. please take us to 50-50 where we belong
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
n/a
9 months ago
Fair enough brother, that's what I did last week lol. I just have most of my portfolio tied elsewhere ATM
0
Wisdomtime
9 months ago
95% according to latest data -- https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/
Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?
n/a
9 months ago
BC she has historically endorsed Biden and Kamala in the past
3
Platinum
9 months ago
That is a really high yes? Why is this?
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
I agree, the last few days are uncertain. Plus, NASA calculates differently from everyone else, so who knows what will win with how close it is right now.
1
tomn
9 months ago
Nothing is a given - there definitely is a chance this hits yes with how hot its been. But I think its no
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
n/a
9 months ago
I wish you had waited like a week before posting that lol
0
Wisdomtime
9 months ago
95% according to latest data -- https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
Nah, I'm just riding it out until no hits 0
1
n/a
9 months ago
also looks somebody manipulating this market🤣 cheap yeses
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
9 months ago
Yep, looks like I'm going broke 💔
3
RadLilDude
9 months ago
Just broke hottest day ever two days in a row…
Biden drops out in July?
n/a
9 months ago
Yes, every buyer has a seller. At the end, if youve won, you are awarded the total value of the share ($1 per share)
4
anon789
9 months ago
hi, i am new to this. is this kind of regular share market, where every buyer has an seller? what happens if i hold the shares till the end who pays??
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
n/a
10 months ago
92% chance for the warmest year, according to the latest data. https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2024-temperature-update/
0
Kamala Harris and JD Vance debate before election?
n/a
10 months ago
well I was SO wrong lmao
1
n/a
10 months ago
I think this is still very underpriced, the debate is all but confirmed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwpOljmWA4A
Kamala Harris and JD Vance debate before election?
n/a
10 months ago
I think this is still very underpriced, the debate is all but confirmed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwpOljmWA4A
1