ANudeEgg | Polymarket Tracker

#61

Rank

531

Comments

220

Likes Received

19

Likes Given

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

I'm on NO, but this logic is wrong. Read the rules. All that is needed is a cease fire. Besides, the lack of inauguration has not prevented Trump's people from talking politics with world leaders.

He cant make promise cause he is not inauguration.After that peace may come

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

This is fair. Yes was an enormous favorite even before PolyMarket issued a clarificstion. Your interpretation of the rules is unpopular and would have lost anyways.

Good to see another market resolved correctly. Good game, everyone.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Yeah, because you’re thinking of this completely wrong, he was involved with its launch. He’s obviously not a coder.

Yea dude, my 70yr old grandpa who can't figure out a QR code to pay with BTC just launched a crypto

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Good to see another market resolved correctly. Good game, everyone.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

It's a shame that all of these large No holders who are up a few thousand dollars are going to just watch it all burn away in 1.5 hours.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Because Yes is where the value is at. There's no value in buying No at this point.

Bro, like why would you buy yes when it’s like 0,1% profit😭😭😭 I mean hold NO at least intense

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Especially No buyers.

all gamblers: please only bet what you can afford to lose

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Or we're not going to have a country anymore!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!!

What will Kamala Harris say during Fox interview?

She says aborition all the time tho.

I mean there is no way she's going to say the word abortion, she'll say something like reproductive rights

What will Kamala Harris say during Fox interview?

FoxNews gets to ask her questions.

i don't know why there is border and gun picks with so bad coefficient, why she would talk about it? It's more like republican agenda

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Why would they bet on the losing side? Nobody is going to 30X here. It's over.

whales, it is still not late not to loose your money , sell yes and buy no (you will become x30 whales)

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Dude. Lame argument. Read the rules: "token".

t’s Not a Coin Launch—It’s a Locked Token Sale The Polymarket bet asks if Trump will “launch a coin,” but what’s actually happened is a token sale. And here’s the kicker: The tokens are locked for 12 months and non-tradable. Per Polymarket's own rules (similar to airdrop bets), locked or non-swappable tokens DO NOT count as a "Yes." For the bet to resolve to Yes, the tokens must be swappable/tradable—and that’s not the case here.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Trump tweeted about his involvement. PolyMarket added a clarification on this page. It's over.

show us the prove

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

If this is what you're hanging your hat on, you really should sell now.

THE CLARIFICATION ONLY SAYS "SHOULD" RESOLVE YES, UMA CAN STILL DO THE RIGHT THING

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Trump says he's involved with the token. The bookmaker says Trump is involved in the deployment. For some reason, morons keep betting No.

What will Kamala say during Univision town hall?

@bbman1214 But trying to pump after it's already hit is dumb.

No gouging is easy money

What will Kamala say during Univision town hall?

has this fucking bitch said inflation at all?

What will Kamala say during Univision town hall?

No gouging is easy money

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

WTH are you talking about? Cabal...LOL

So funny watching members of the scamming cabal desperately trying to suppress price. One tweet away from their positions going to zero. It's going to be a party in this comment section. Can not wait. Tik Tok!

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Is anyone going to dispute this? The clock is about to run out. Getting nervous.

JakeAirdropFarm

i will post the 750 USDC bond for china if someone gives me timestamps, I'm trying to transcribe the video but no luck

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Nice. Less than 30 min left to dispute.

Should I dispute China No or let someone else do it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Your voice to text probably doesn't pick it up because he says "Gyna".

Should I dispute China No or let someone else do it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

I would, but I'm on the road and can't access my external wallet from here. Not sure I can make it back home in time.

Do it yourself.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Should I dispute China No or let someone else do it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

You must be using different feeds.

JakeAirdropFarm

i will post the 750 USDC bond for china if someone gives me timestamps, I'm trying to transcribe the video but no luck

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

That was your computer skipping.

I got China 172x, it was crazy, he started saying it over and over and over as quickly as possible, I think he did too many drugs!

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

C'mon. Nobody has 12.

I got China 12x idk about you guys

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Huh? Nobody has 8x. It's either 9 or 10 (I've seen one 11).

Kamala x31, China x8, Border x11. Good night!

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

I didn't notate the timestamps unfortunately. I just wanted to make sure my count was correct.

I have China 10x

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Just counted again.

I have China 10x

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

I have China 10x

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

China No has been proposed if anyone wants to dispute it.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

Why aren't you doing it?

If anyone wants a free $250, propose China no. You will get the dispute money when that inevitably happens.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

I'm not looking to scam anything. I'm simply betting on them running out of time. Maybe I'm wrong. That's what makes this stuff so fun!

So funny watching members of the scamming cabal desperately trying to suppress price. One tweet away from their positions going to zero. It's going to be a party in this comment section. Can not wait. Tik Tok!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

If the token drops prior to election, then so be it and good game.

So funny watching members of the scamming cabal desperately trying to suppress price. One tweet away from their positions going to zero. It's going to be a party in this comment section. Can not wait. Tik Tok!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

LOL. That's why I asked because you commented after I bought No. You have no idea what you're talking about. I was high on Yes earlier. I'm not trying to suppress anyting. I'm buying where I think the value is.

So funny watching members of the scamming cabal desperately trying to suppress price. One tweet away from their positions going to zero. It's going to be a party in this comment section. Can not wait. Tik Tok!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Which users is the scamming cabal comprised of?

So funny watching members of the scamming cabal desperately trying to suppress price. One tweet away from their positions going to zero. It's going to be a party in this comment section. Can not wait. Tik Tok!

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

How about some crystal meth for the home stretch?

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Somebody get this man some ephedrine.

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

who put up a 100k share limit order. chill

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

A backwards roll should count

Seems hard to do a backflip if you can’t jump.

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

I’m at the gym right now.

yes holders never worked out once in their lives

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Always read the rules.

i still dont really get it. is it whether he reaches the amount on his counter or if guiness accepts his run?

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

"The primary resolution source for this market will be official video from IShowSpeed"

i still dont really get it. is it whether he reaches the amount on his counter or if guiness accepts his run?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

You got Len No right.

can't believe my strategy of copy trading people who seem like insiders failed me

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

You're assuming that it's going to be an unclear ending when the director has said it's not?

Do Other bettors understand what the UMA dispute process is like?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Dude, my radar was going off on this too. Earlier I posted screenshots of my coments from yesterday saying it might circle back around to Adam at the end. Oh well.

Well, I had my thesis and went big, its what I do. May have been caught out by the signals coming from adam and samson, but we will see how its goes. lots of suspicious stuff with these fortune and forbes links imo, but we will see.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

But Multiple is also Other...

Since Cullen said it's not going to be multiple whoever loaded up 1 MIL on multiple is mana from heaven. Thanks who ever you are!

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Is the documentary out already?!!

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Okay, but we aren't betting on who Satoshi actually is here.

Go and read nicks blog, the post from years ago. The language is near identical to that of the btc whitepaper.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

@blasemerch Peter Todd doesn't have to admit to it in order for him to resolve Yes.

Though, it'd be super super fitting if the teaser to this doc was a hilarious and massive rug fueled by a fake forbes article. Performance art, let's call it..

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

That means nothing. There are obviously many more than that in the doc. They haven't put a full cast list on IMDB yet. This is probably from a user.

Oh shit check out the cast on IMDB. Only a few ppl… and Peter Todd at the end. https://m.imdb.com/title/tt33600145/fullcredits/cast?ref_=m_ttfc_2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Wouldn't he be the insider bullshit in that scenario?

HaterzLoserz is gonna pocket 1mm tn and there's no amount of insider bullshit thats gonna stop him

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

No one involved with the documentary says that the suspect takes credit for being Satoshi. They only say that they confront him.

Nobody living would take credit for being satoshi. He's been anonymous all this time and is a literal trillionaire, he would not be safe if people knew.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

People won't remember some guy named Billy B anyways

It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Why? They always bet huge on random shit.

So someone has the movie, but only 2 short clips leak? Sus, tho I admit @Anon1565 activity is more convincing

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

It could be controversial in the sense that the film starts off under the assumption that it isn't him and they're just sitting down for some background with him.

The one problem is the 'controversial' clue. Would Adam really be 'controversial'?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Where did the director say THAT?

BRB adding more funds to wallet, adam short is so easy. Director said its not him and everyone seem to be ignoring that

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Anyone here interested in doing a side bet on Peter Todd? I'd like to fade him.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Well, the purpose of screen testing is to see if they need to change anything basesd on audience feedback, so it's possible that they changed the ending to make it more conclusive.

Skippy-downunder

I screen tested this on behalf of Sircuit, contracted through HBO. The documentary filmmaker goes through an long list of possibilities and doesn't settle on anyone in partiuclar. However says it is most likely Zsabo in closing statements. I think 'other/multiple' wins technically, because it's not conclusive, but if there is ever gonna be a disputed market on Polymarket, it's this one. Might as well have a punt on the😄 mayhem that awaits

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Just watched a screener DVD of this documentary. They point the finger at Donald Trump.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

I do expect them to say or at least heavily imply that someone is Satoshi. What I was saying was that the subject doesn't necessarily have to admit it.

yea like do people really actually expect HBO to say "szabo is satoshi"? wouldn't that legit be a major risk of getting sued? it can potentially harm szabo a lot if they call him out satoshi like that

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TheDefiantNews/status/1843420090525725128

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

You're not necessarily bettig on who Satoshi actually is. You're betting on the story this documentary is going to tell.

Nick szabo 33% lmao we live in a meme, there are plain facts that hes not satoshi how dumb yall are

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

He didn't say he knows it's Szabo, only that he's a main character so it's a possibility.

if that was true why wouldn't you bet Yes on szabo?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Curious, why didn't you put your money on something with a lower share price? For example, you say it's not Len, and his No shares are a lot cheaper then Adam's.

WinstonChurchil

I've already invested all the money I have available so it's fine to say this. This documentary had hundreds of staff working on it (literally hundreds), and a company outsourced for editing. My sister works for the company editing the documentary. It was done in parts (no one has access to the whole thing so we can't confirm the full narrative) but we can confirm the following: Szabo is a main Satoshi candidate, Hal was involved with Bitcoin early on, and it is not Adam, Len, or Paul. I was surprised that other insiders have not changed the market entirely yet but I guess it's hard to get access to enough capital and hard to use this UI anyway.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Nobody said that the person he interviewed **admitted** to being Satoshi.

Nick Szabo has already denied creating Bitcoin several times, so why retract?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sorry, I can't lie and mislead people. That was obviously a joke. PolyMarket is not overturning this decision.

Its 8:05, why has the polymarket not resolevd?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

@mona.lisa Not unusual at all. Resolution on PolyMarket is always delayed by about an hour after UMA.

Apparently Polymarket is reviewing this market in light of the bogus UMA voting to resolve it in a way that is fair to the customers and according to the fine print of the market and based on the events that actually happened in an unbiased way. Protect your customer Polymarket, and resolve this market in a unbiased and fair way!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Who told you this? PolyMarket hasn't communicated this on any public channel AFIAK. Don't get people's hopes up. They won't be overturning a decision which went through the agreed upon arbitration process and voted on twice.

Apparently Polymarket is reviewing this market in light of the bogus UMA voting to resolve it in a way that is fair to the customers and according to the fine print of the market and based on the events that actually happened in an unbiased way. Protect your customer Polymarket, and resolve this market in a unbiased and fair way!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

I heard they're overturning the decision.

Its 8:05, why has the polymarket not resolevd?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

He's already up there.

put Isamu Kaneko up there

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

He's already in the list. Literally everyone in the world is already in the list. Look again.

do i have to write to polymarket to get Isamu kaneko up there or how does one do that?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

This is wrong. (1) Two people could absolutely pose as one person, and (2) the documentary could equally present 2 different people as potential candidates.

"Multiple" can't be valid result. Bitcoin creators can be more people than one, but Satoshi should be one. (His wallets are dorming)

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

He's already up there (Other bracket). It's a neg risk market, so they can't just add new brackets without breaking things.

put Isamu Kaneko up there and i will bet $10000 on him please polymarket

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Literally everyone is in this list.

The bitcoin creator is not even mentioned in above list. How can I add to the list?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

What a sore loser.

https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 1 min to fill out copy this: https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation. Polymarket is actively working on changing their protocols because they recognize that UMA's resolution process is a major issue that has led to customers being misled or scammed. This is not an isolated incident but a systemic problem, and despite their efforts to address it, many users are still being negatively impacted by the unreliable market resolutions.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

No, that is not possible. A No resolution has been clinched. "No" holders will be able to redeem their shares later this evening.

its imposible to redispute the result?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Life savings? Who are you talking about? People should only be gambling with what they can afford to lose. That's not PolyMarket's problem.

at least resolve it as 50/50, don't kill innocent people by stealing their fking life savings

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

They do it themselves when they have time. That's why it's a 24 hour window.

do token holders choose when to reveal addresses or its randomly?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Definitely No. They can re-commit during the previous commit phase.

Can token holders re-commit to a different side before revealing?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Huh? You’re holding Yes shares. 50Pence supported Yes.

You're part of the scam in this market and many others. 0 Respect. Robbing people on rigged bets. Disgusting thief.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

@Kobafix Think about how the UMA voting process works with Schelling point. What you suggest has almost no chance of happening because each individual voter knows that the vast majority of their peers already voted down Yes for September.

shouldbealright

In the next 5 hours, the largest No whales are going to start offloading their positions. They will try to do so without moving the market too much, but once it starts and they realize what the other No holders are doing, it will go faster and faster

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

@TheGoober Because the proposal happened just before the dealine. "Too Early" means they didn't buy the Yes argument but couldn't vote No because there was a small amount of time remaining. The individual voters aren't going to change their votes to Yes because they know their peers already voted against Yes.

shouldbealright

In the next 5 hours, the largest No whales are going to start offloading their positions. They will try to do so without moving the market too much, but once it starts and they realize what the other No holders are doing, it will go faster and faster

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Yes, but "too early" in this case meant No because it was proposed just before the market deadline.

JFC give it up. Thhe decision has ben determined. If you lost its not too late to accept the reality that some of us were actually arguing the right answer.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

I got into this market starting at like 25c and bought a lot more when UMA voted P4 (because that is effectively a No vote).

shouldbealright

In the next 5 hours, the largest No whales are going to start offloading their positions. They will try to do so without moving the market too much, but once it starts and they realize what the other No holders are doing, it will go faster and faster

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Just as Yes went to 100 in that market, No is going to 100 in this one.

shouldbealright

In the next 5 hours, the largest No whales are going to start offloading their positions. They will try to do so without moving the market too much, but once it starts and they realize what the other No holders are doing, it will go faster and faster

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Yes, exactly. It sounds like you think you have a "gotcha" on me here. Very confusing.

You guys said the same thing about the Enter Yes market but it never happened. Nice FUD.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Well, the voters have spoken and they disagree with you.

It was NOT proposed early. A consensus of mulit-billion dollar international news gathering and dissemination outlets, each with their own in-house research departments, reported the invasion before the Sept. 30th market deadline.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

In this situation, P4 votes are effectively No votes because the market was proposed right before the deadline. A No vote was not possible.

P4 is just the choice option for voting that means Too early. Otherwise last I checked around 14% voted yes or P2. The no vote option, P1, had not even 1% of the UMA vote share.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

You guys said the same thing about the Enter Yes market but it never happened. Nice FUD.

shouldbealright

In the next 5 hours, the largest No whales are going to start offloading their positions. They will try to do so without moving the market too much, but once it starts and they realize what the other No holders are doing, it will go faster and faster

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

You understand what market makers do, right?

clear manipulation by "NO" Holders, the fact that "JustKen" is buying YES shares proves my point.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

It’s not possible. He’s buying both sides and maintaining a strong No position the entire time, if you pay attention to his history.

clear manipulation by "NO" Holders, the fact that "JustKen" is buying YES shares proves my point.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

It was proposed right before the deadline. UMA voters effectively rejected the Yes argument for September with their last P4 vote. This is going No.

I get the argument that this market was proposed YES too early... but why should it resolve no?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

You’re showing your ignorance.

clear manipulation by "NO" Holders, the fact that "JustKen" is buying YES shares proves my point.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Of course he’s buying Yes (and No). He’s a market maker. Is he significantly selling out of his position? No.

clear manipulation by "NO" Holders, the fact that "JustKen" is buying YES shares proves my point.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Batu is a small player for sure. Ken is not a voter.

Is there a way to know who are the UMA token holders that are voting? Can you identify that a YES vote on Polymarket also voted YES on UMA?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

No whale exposed their vote. I believe a small time player did.

Is there a way to know who are the UMA token holders that are voting? Can you identify that a YES vote on Polymarket also voted YES on UMA?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

But Yes votes revealed so far have clinched the win.

If UMA said yes, why hasn't it been resolved so far? What is polymarket waiting for?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

That’s crazy conspiracy talk.

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

How are they buying anything?

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

@thb That’s wrong. UMA is the decider here. The votes are still being revealed over the next 14.5 hours. Then the market will resolve on the PolyMarket site an hour or so after that.

If UMA said yes, why hasn't it been resolved so far? What is polymarket waiting for?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

No, what I’m telling you is that your opinion of what the evidence points to is not the most popular opinion.

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

It’s over. PolyMarker will not overturn this decision. Whoever told you that was a possibility was leading you on.

So the final UMA vote will be revealed in 15 hours? But can Polymarket dispute this vote and change the outcome? Just asking to understand the whole process. Whether they do it or not here, idk

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

People disagree with your opinion that the overwhelming evidence points to that. If No had won, Yes holders would be saying the same thing.

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

There was a dispute because people disagreed on the correct answer. One side is always going to think that they were screwed, no matter which way the vote goes

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You’re asking how an arbitration process which you implicitly agreed to by using the website is legal?

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You can’t do it technically unless they expose themselves because it’s all on chain. But many people have been participating in disputes for a long time and there’s no evidence that anything like that is happening, at least for the UMA whales who really matter.

Is there a way to know who are the UMA token holders that are voting? Can you identify that a YES vote on Polymarket also voted YES on UMA?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Other polls are coming out pretty close.

Why would anyone in their right mind bet on Walz. We all know he lost.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

You’re betting on what the poll will say. Not everyone thinks Vance won, so the question is how many?

Why would anyone in their right mind bet on Walz. We all know he lost.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

So you’re asking them to do the same vote.

The vote result was (P4) Early Request, just as JustKen/Domer signaled to all his market fixers, despite an overwhelming consensus of timely media reports citing "invasion", and official government statements. Market fixing is a serious criminal offence. To anyone who sold early and lost money, screenshot everything, collect evidence, and contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Share how many shares you held, why you sold, and how much you lost. Best of luck everyone.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

And UMA voters didn’t buy that argument for September.

The vote result was (P4) Early Request, just as JustKen/Domer signaled to all his market fixers, despite an overwhelming consensus of timely media reports citing "invasion", and official government statements. Market fixing is a serious criminal offence. To anyone who sold early and lost money, screenshot everything, collect evidence, and contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Share how many shares you held, why you sold, and how much you lost. Best of luck everyone.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

They don't think it constituted an invasion, in September at least.

The vote result was (P4) Early Request, just as JustKen/Domer signaled to all his market fixers, despite an overwhelming consensus of timely media reports citing "invasion", and official government statements. Market fixing is a serious criminal offence. To anyone who sold early and lost money, screenshot everything, collect evidence, and contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Share how many shares you held, why you sold, and how much you lost. Best of luck everyone.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Your $757 of total volume won't be missed. Players who understand that Yes is a very reasonable outcom, even if they don't agree with it, will stay and play and enjoy the site.

bye f ever guys

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

In about 20 hours the market will resolve on the PolyMarket site.

When will the market close?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

What do you mean by "if"? Yes won.

Will lose complete faith in Polymarket if the Yes win. It is a straight NO. Even the Perplexity engine if you Generate the Market Summary above states "The operation, described as "limited, localized, and targeted ground raids," began on October 1". Huh ?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You had a consensus of credible reporting, as the rules required. It's really very simple.

I do not understand what is the decision, if yall chose yes its a total scam this whole website

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Because this vote meanst he UMA voters don't buy the Yes argument. So the next market proposal will resolve No.

The vote result was (P4) Early Request, just as JustKen/Domer signaled to all his market fixers, despite an overwhelming consensus of timely media reports citing "invasion", and official government statements. Market fixing is a serious criminal offence. To anyone who sold early and lost money, screenshot everything, collect evidence, and contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Share how many shares you held, why you sold, and how much you lost. Best of luck everyone.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

You lost a bet, fair and square. Quit crying about it.

The vote result was (P4) Early Request, just as JustKen/Domer signaled to all his market fixers, despite an overwhelming consensus of timely media reports citing "invasion", and official government statements. Market fixing is a serious criminal offence. To anyone who sold early and lost money, screenshot everything, collect evidence, and contact me on Discord @katiasantos6330 Share how many shares you held, why you sold, and how much you lost. Best of luck everyone.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

I hope you crap close to your toilet.

When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

@bbman1214 Because this P4 vote is the UMA voters telling everyone that they think they answer is No. So you'd be a fool throwing your money away if you disputed.

So what happens now that it is a early request

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Assuming P4 does eventually clinch, the dispute ends and somoene can re-propose. Most likely, somone will propose P1 (No), and someone would have to be a fool to dispute it.

So what happens now that it is a early request

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

That would be insane at this point.

guess it's over unless polymarket steps in and clarifies

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

They are not stakeholders in the decision. What are you talking about?

Who on earth designed a system where an objective decision is made by stakeholders in the decision??

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

No holders: message Polymarket support now, vote needs to be redone regardless of outcome - Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png The commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I've seen enough.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Market manipulation.

STRANGE! JustKen is not a top share holder here, https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Dude. These people have jobs and families and live in time zones around the globe. There’s a reason why the reveal phase is 24 hours long.

Why aren't more people revealing? Is this just more manipulation going on?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Not one Yes whale has shed any shares this entire time. We don't care.

yes people are scaring no holder because they cant exit the only thing they can do is lie.. they cant share link

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Ah, yes. The Donald Trump Sore Loser Stolen Election approach.

Simply if yes it’s scam, the fact is no!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

It has barely begun. Most votes on P4 so far but it’s insignificant amount. The UMA whales will decide this.

What was the vote reveal for?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

The EV for Walz at 20c would be amazing,

- The MARKET sets the price. Your observations are just people disagreeing about who won. The price context is not how HARD we believe something, rather how cheaply we can buy our opinion. I would buy now at 80% Vance is that was the price...but its not. I would also buy more Vance if I had more money.....but I dont. 4 polls showing Vance winning, 1 showing it a tie. Easy Vance money my man

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Attention everyone. I really need you No supporters to dig deep into those wallets and couch cushions. Buy more No and fight this appalling price movement.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

It’s going to happen any minute now (you’ve been saying for 24+ hours).

Big dump incoming in 30 minutes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Sorry but im not going to take advice from someone who thinks 50/50 is even possible here. You obviously don’t know what you’re talking about.

JumpingJackFlash

Last warning to YES: sell that shit you have before it runs out 50-50 or worse, Then don't say you weren't warned.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

There’s no way you’ve been around here since May and are seriously saying that it’s only going to be revealed NOW.

The UMA system is about to be revealed as totally flawed at best.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

All the No’s got trolled by their own selective reading of the rules.

All the yes got trolled by IDF

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Come on No holders. Don’t give up now. Please buy more!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

What do you mean? P4 is what you are hoping for as a No holder. P1 (No) is an illogical answer because the proposal was made before market end date.

Wait if P3 happens (50/50) do I make 35k and pence loses half his shit? eeek!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Everyone is strongly advocating for their own side (P4 or P2) because they don't want to show any weakness in their arguments. Therefore, no UMA voter is going to risk getting slashed by voting for P3 - something absolutely nobody is advocating for.

Wait if P3 happens (50/50) do I make 35k and pence loses half his shit? eeek!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

If you understood how the process worked, you'd know that 50/50 is virtually impossible here.

Wait if P3 happens (50/50) do I make 35k and pence loses half his shit? eeek!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

The misplaced confidence is so hilarious.

yes holders you have 4 hours to sell

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

It's an echo chamber feedback loop.

no holders are just pumping one another

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

50/50 cannot happen here.

JumpingJackFlash

Best is 50 50 lol

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

All I hear is "We want to scam our way into 100X profits."

Y’all sure yap an awful lot for having nothing to say

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Nah. UMA sides with reality here.

PanosMariolis2001

Even if uma is fair , polymarket sides with the whales for obvious reasons like liquidity, fees etc.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Even if you were correct (which you're not), that isn't the sunk cost fallacy.

Whales holding YES would get out but there’s no exit liquidity. That’s their biggest issue. They’re trapped now and have to troll on Discord to try rigging the vote.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I'm going to queue up some shares at 4c for you. What a steal!

Hezbollah publicly declared the claims from the Israelis false.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

But even events happening on October 1st could count for this market since the rules are based in Eastern Time, not whatever Lebanon is.

click on the source wikipedia is basing the first paragraph on, then look at the date

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Or you can sell at any time.

Do we have to wait for the full final review period to elapse?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Funds will be released to winners in about 50 hours.

Do we have to wait for the full final review period to elapse?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Have you figured it out yet? (Hint: You're thinking about the wrong time zone)

"The IDF announced the start of the operation at 2:00 AM local time, following earlier reports of Israeli incursions, which had been denied by the IDF.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I had no idea you were flipping to Yes!

It's just objectively true that they didn't cross the border until October 1st

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

And it's objectively true that that is within the time boundary of this market! Woohoo!

It's just objectively true that they didn't cross the border until October 1st

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Thank you for providing crystal clear evidence in support of Yes! (Read the rules again, this time very carefully)

"The IDF announced the start of the operation at 2:00 AM local time, following earlier reports of Israeli incursions, which had been denied by the IDF.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Scamman1 has continuously lied about evidence in these comments and not responded when caught in those lies. He's trying to scam his way into a cheap victory. But the reality is that this is 100% going Yes, and he's causing all of you to burn your own dollars buying more No shares in the process.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

The only real debate going on is whether Israel's actions constitute an "invasion" (for the purpose of the other markets, not this one). Nobody is seriously considering this market going No.

I need to be scared guys?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I need to be scared guys?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Okay, you understand expected value (good) but you severely underestimate the win probability of Yes here (bad).

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

what amazes me still is the number of people betting their life savings on a disputed market just to gain 5%. I've lived through wallstreetbets but this level of risk/reward illiteracy i've never seen.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

That's not the only argument. You're lying again. The November market was resolved properly, which is why this one is going to resolve Yes as well.

Just FYI the only argument these whales have on discord that November market was resolved to yes ( prematurely ) so this one should be Yes too .. This isn't a valid argument that can solve this market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You should research "expected value". A 1% return in 2 days with almost no risk is amazing. Try getting that with another type of financial instrument.

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

what amazes me still is the number of people betting their life savings on a disputed market just to gain 5%. I've lived through wallstreetbets but this level of risk/reward illiteracy i've never seen.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Votes take place every other day, so it depends where in the cycle your particular dispute happens to land. For this one, I believe that voting will commence this evening and last for 24 hours. Then there will be a 24 hour period where the votes are revealed by the individual voters.

How long does a UMA last on average? when will there be a decision?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Can you guys please "squeeze" this market price back down to 96 cents? I'd like to buy another 50k shares. Thx!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I guess none of you No holders can read, huh? Or are you purposely leaving out the parts of the rules you don't like?

there needs to be confirmation from Hezbollah and Israel, both of which have DENIED this.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Can someone please fill me at 96.0 cents?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

This is really sad. Scamman1's scamming is only causing other people to throw away their money on false hopes.

This would be the biggest Yes/Whales squeeze in the history of PM. do yourself a favor and buy your NOs

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

I'd genuinely like to hear @Leot290 or @trav's rationale.

Free money on racist

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

I'm curious, why do you think it's free? What circumstances will lead to him saying it?

Free money on racist

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

If any of the top 10 or so Yes holders tried to sell off they'd end up taking a huge loss because their action would move the market. Everyone who bought in large for Yes did so knowing that they were sticking it out until the end.

I would sale my Yes if im Holding 50k+ that's a lot of risk for something is very obvious its a no

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

@averagejoe No, he's saying all of the big Yes holders have made a lot of money on this site because they know what they're doing. No holders are buying dirt cheap shares and trying to work an angle to wealth. One of the loudest No holders here continuously lies about his evidence.

Damn this is such an easy 100x

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Once again, I ask you to quote the part where the UN says there was no border crossing. You can't.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-01-2024-eb175dff6e46906caea8b9e43dfbd3da Hazbollah and UN peacekeeping group both say that Israeli forces have yet to cross border

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

If you're going to plagiarize JustKen (Domer), at least copy the part which destroys your argument. LOL. "I'm using Gaza as my guidepost. There, the IDF clearly invaded with a large occupying force. Here, it's very unclear what is happening, and all reporting indicating they are entering, doing a raid, and leaving again."

What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I did. Quote the denial part. Either: (a) you won't be able to, or (b) you'll quote something which can be laughed at because of your inability to read English correctly.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-01-2024-eb175dff6e46906caea8b9e43dfbd3da Hazbollah and UN peacekeeping group both say that Israeli forces have yet to cross border

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

LOL. There's video.

Raids they mention are air raids to prepare for a ground operation. Ground raids are incoming. The yes market bullies unfortunately need some reality check

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Once again, you are misrepresenting what the UN is saying here. The have not denied anything. Jesus, people need to learn how to read.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-01-2024-eb175dff6e46906caea8b9e43dfbd3da Hazbollah and UN peacekeeping group both say that Israeli forces have yet to cross border

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You didn't read the report I take it. The raids were on the ground.

Raids they mention are air raids to prepare for a ground operation. Ground raids are incoming. The yes market bullies unfortunately need some reality check

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Since you misrepresented what the U.N. said in your other link, I'm just going to assume more shenanigans here from a dishonest poster.

its live on all news channel guys ffs you so lazy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

My Arabic speaking friend watched your link and found no such statement.

its live on all news channel guys ffs you so lazy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

That's nice. The WSJ is a little more specific and claims that the raids were done recently.

https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841089759898149203 Here is a video of the Raids which have no dates but have happened "since the beginning of the year"

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Okay, just so we are clear, nowhere in your link does it say that Isreal had not already conducted raids in Lebanon as the WSJ and Times of Israel suggest. Thank you.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/unifil-warns-any-israeli--crossing-into-lebanon--violates-so

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

@diogofmaciel My dude, you have a consensus of credible reporting + the USA + Israel confirming. It doesn't matter what you think. The rules say the reporting can be relied upon. Poly/UMA also threw out Russia's lies about not being stuck in Moscow by Ukraine. Should we deny reality because of wartime propoganda?

Demented.Drumpf

Hezbollah already denied it. As per the conditions of this market, this is already a "No". Now it remains to be seen if Polymarket cares more about its reputation or the whales

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Read carefully. I didn't say November resolved incorrectly. I said it resolved correctly because of credible reporting. @monom, here is your source you asked for. https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-said-to-enter-hezbollah-tunnels-with-pre-invasion-forays-into-lebanon/

Demented.Drumpf

Hezbollah already denied it. As per the conditions of this market, this is already a "No". Now it remains to be seen if Polymarket cares more about its reputation or the whales

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Similarly, Russia denied that Ukrainian drones struck Moscow, but we know that they did.

Demented.Drumpf

Hezbollah already denied it. As per the conditions of this market, this is already a "No". Now it remains to be seen if Polymarket cares more about its reputation or the whales

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

@Wilmaco Because regardless of what Hezbollah says, there is credible reporting that it happened. This is why the November market resolved without any dispute. And since the November market resolved Yes, this one will as well. It's not a rigged game -- there are just semi-scammers trying to convince people of something that isn't true. The ONLY debate at this point is whether what Isreal has done constitutes an "invasion" (for other market purposes).

Demented.Drumpf

Hezbollah already denied it. As per the conditions of this market, this is already a "No". Now it remains to be seen if Polymarket cares more about its reputation or the whales

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You're going to have to explain this relationship between PolyMarket share buys and UMA token price. LOL. What a WILD theory.

No point arguing. 50pence & aenews2 bought $800k worth of shares in Israel enter lebanon market, and UMA token price rose by 12% in last 24hrs . So I guess this is rigged. Whales can buy whatever they want and vote as per thier choice by stocking the UMA tokens. truth doesnt really matters

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Only if you ignore the second half of the last sentence.

This 1 article means that there is 0% change the market can resolve to Yes per its terms: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

There are only 3 UMA whales. None of the PolyMarket whales are UMA whales. They actually tend to hate UMA and only participate in its dispute process out of necessity.

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

Just learning about how UMA resolves this: "you can become a voter in UMA’s dispute resolution process by purchasing UMA tokens and holding them in your wallet. The more UMA tokens you hold, the greater your voting power in the dispute resolution process." which means we are probably getting reckt by Yes whales guys

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Don't lie, my man.

So IDF also now confirming they didnt Breach. It was all false flag along

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

People are still buying No? LOL

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Any events which occur after midnight don’t count towards the resolution, but there is no resolution yet so people can still trade.

how come you can buy/sell after the market closed?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

On this bet, PrognostiX [markets-prognostix.com] offers twice the liquidity and distinct odds, creating a solid arbitrage opportunity across these markets.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I just took a quick jog down the Israel/Lebanon border and I didn’t see any IDF troops.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

what's the next step ? im new to this who is gonna decide

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

You left out the best part.

Do we have confirmation from at least one of the sources cited?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Apparently, you didn't finish reading the rules.

The rules are the rules.

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Someone screen shot him calling people stupid for this.

How is "Hillbilly" still so cheap? This is the first time the left and independents are going to see J.D Vance unedited, and he has a movie with A list talent, that's based on his life available on Netflix right now.... The title "Hillbilly Elegy". I can not see how he doesn't bring this up. Adds loads of legitimacy to the crowd that he is looking to impress.

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Can you check the rules and let us know?

Does it count if he says Chinese?

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

There really is no discrepancy yet. Look at the spreads. Markets haven't reached a consensus yet.

Interesting discrepancy between Walz and Vance on "Helene".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You cannot reply to a second level reply.

why is the reply button only occasionally present?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

This entire comments section is like 5 desperate No holders trying to bend reality.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

50Pence long ago entered territory where he couldn’t rug without harming himself. He is married to his position.

You bought your first yes calls at 97c lol your about to get rugged by pence and arnews bud

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

You're missing a huge factor in that EV calculation of yours: win probability.

what's great in that? Your risk reward is 20:1, mine is 1:50.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

see in the morning how you rected 20k for 1k

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Because it was disputed.

so why the market didnt resolve?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

I love betting on past history.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Forget it. He's rolling.

What does this even mean

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

LIQUIDATE PENCE AT ALL COSTS

Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?

It wasn't proposed by an insider. It was proposed by someone who didn't know that she was already married.

The bitch is no longer of child bearing age. Yes she could get pregnant but highly unlikelly. So this would be a bond, unless some insider has proposed this market, that's highly possible because seems too random, like the Beaber's son market

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

@teddykgb Look, I don’t really care since I’m a No holder. Your interpretation just means more outs for me. But your interpretation is crazy IMO. It’s a compound word and the “-dog” refers to dogs in dogfighting. Pretty clear to me.

‘Underdog’ counts, right?

What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?

Can you Google it and let us know?

Liked by 0xE42c9d2e..., mr.ozi and 21 others

what times is this event

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

ChatGPT is simply wrong then. This isn't difficult to figure out. "Underdog" clearly satisfies the rules, and I'm a Dog No shareholder.

ChatGPT says no, but the etimology refers to dogfighting where a 'dog' would be the underdog so Im not so sure

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

That is very clear.

ONE THING NOT CLEAR: Trans would count for Trans line but should it count for transgender? Why scumala joyful wouldn't count when joy is the word then

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

It should, yes. It's a compound word and the "-dog" refers to the animal.

‘Underdog’ counts, right?

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

Funds being returned is not technically possible. This is resolving one way or another.

This market is not about predicting gender, but rather about whether Huobi will issue an announcement before September 30th. I believe resolving this as a 50-50 split is inappropriate because it deviates from the market's original intent, is misleading, and could even cause those who guessed correctly to lose money. If Huobi does not issue an announcement, the funds should be returned to the participants.

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

In any case, I was merely commenting on your 6 cell phone logic. It doesn't necessarily hold.

Why would one need 6 cell phones if they are acting alone?

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

I fail to see the relevance of your question. The indictment against Routh was just released yesterday and it was not a talking indictment, so you have no idea what this guy knew and when.

Why would one need 6 cell phones if they are acting alone?

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

Right. All that matters is what they announce.

Not true. You didn't read the rules. Proof isn't needed.

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania speech?

That was their chance.

Blockchain - so close crypto bros

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

As long as there's an announcement, the market will resolve to whatever they announce. There's nothing in the rules which calls for substantive proof. "This market will resolve according to information from Huobi. The announcement from Huobi is scheduled for Friday September 27, 8:00 PM (UTC+8)."

I guess you're betting on two things though, 1- she's a she, and 2- she'll actually produce something that resolves the market. The rules don't say it, tragically, but this will likely go 50/50 if no evidence is produced. Some may even try to dispute poor evidence, but my 2 cents is as long as something halfway credible is produced, just resolve it and move on.

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

I have 6 cell phones and I am not conspiring with anyone. This guy was a looney tunes conspriacy nut. Multiple phones is not surprising.

Why would one need 6 cell phones if they are acting alone?

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

That is not what that filing says.

They've already said in court filings that there were other people involved. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.675056/gov.uscourts.flsd.675056.2.0.pdf

Will Trump say "mog" in 2024?

The end date doesn’t have any weight. It’s an estimate and is used by the site for sorting purposes. Someone simply put a bad date on there, but it doesn’t matter because only the rules count. As for the proposal and dispute, someone accidentally proposed it early and it was disputed.

Anyone know why the end date is showing June 30? Also why was their a proposal for no and a dispute?

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

I don't think they can show that on television.

Oprah will turn this into a happy ending

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

This is sad and pathetic.

The ONLY word in the English language that, "references the meaning which refers to a feeling of great pleasure and happiness." is "joyful". It is the EXACT definition of the word. ChatGPT is NOT a reliable source to resolve any potential dispute in this matter. ChatGPT does NOT source from scholarly articles, and is prone to hallucinations. Remember the AI generated photo of multiracial NAZIs? Only traditional authoritative sources like Merriam-Webster, which specifically specifies the suffix 'ful' as a compound element, should be used. The definition of words like, "joyride" and "killjoy" DO NOT "reference the meaning which refers to a feeling of great pleasure and happiness." Please learn the implication of the word "AND".

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

Kamala isn't even on yet.

Did she say joy?

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

Be like Kamala and turn the page. Don't be like Trump and cry about a contest you lost fair and square being rigged.

The ONLY word in the English language that, "references the meaning which refers to a feeling of great pleasure and happiness." is "joyful". It is the EXACT definition of the word. ChatGPT is NOT a reliable source to resolve any potential dispute in this matter. ChatGPT does NOT source from scholarly articles, and is prone to hallucinations. Remember the AI generated photo of multiracial NAZIs? Only traditional authoritative sources like Merriam-Webster, which specifically specifies the suffix 'ful' as a compound element, should be used.

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

First, give it up. Second, you're wrong: "joyride".

The ONLY word in the English language that, "references the meaning which refers to a feeling of great pleasure and happiness." is "joyful". It is the EXACT definition of the word. ChatGPT is NOT a reliable source to resolve any potential dispute in this matter. ChatGPT does NOT source from scholarly articles, and is prone to hallucinations. Remember the AI generated photo of multiracial NAZIs? Only traditional authoritative sources like Merriam-Webster, which specifically specifies the suffix 'ful' as a compound element, should be used.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Verbose =/= quality. The argument by No supporters is much more powerful and persuasive.

Reading through all the votes on the UMA voting page, there is no way that this would resolve "NO" if this is a legitimate market. Today we find out the answer to that question.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

No one is going to be refunded. PolyMarket already told us what the answer is.

Most likely, everyone will just get their money back

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

He can drop out of the race later. He'll just remain on the ballot.

YIMBYcaucus🏡

dont know why the deadline for this market is Sept 30 when the deadline to drop is tonight

What did Mark Robinson do?

You did Nazi it coming? Is that the joke?

Wow. Did not see this one coming.

Cops who arrested Tyreek Hill fired?

That sounds like a paid vacation to me.

Cop at Center of Tyreek Hill Case Has History of Excessive Use of Force | Newsweek https://www.newsweek.com/tyreek-hill-body-cam-incident-florida-cop-history-1954713

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

You have 9 dirt cheap shares of Yes. Be a big boy and chalk this loss up to a learning experience. Your interpretation of the original rules would have allowed for scammers to fix the market, so it's nonsensical. If you instead decide to blame anyone but yourself, I don't think your $20 will be missed.

This is going to cause me not to vote on this site anymore if it's not yes or if the money isn't returned and bet cancelled.

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

No cutters are either insane or degen gamblers.

🤺JustPunched

gl guys, nobody is allowed to laugh at either side that loses (except for the No Cut losers)

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

He's sold 20 shares in the last hour. LOL

Justken is selling off his 50bps clip and fudding 25 bps at the same time. Take that as you will 50 bps bros.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

But it didn't happen because we don't know if it's a real whistleblower or just made up.

The bet was originally listed as "Will the whistle blower release the affidavit by Sunday". This happened. The bet was not Will the affidavit be released by Sunday and proven to be authentic. If it was listed that was I would have never bet. This came after.

What will Trump say during New York rally?

What the heck were you reading which made you think it was No? “ This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" and/or "make America great again" 5 or more times…”

So does "Make America Great Again" count as MAGA?

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

Just read the rules my friend.

If she says AI instead of Artifical Intellegence will that work too

What will Trump say during New York rally?

What do the rules say?

So does "Make America Great Again" count as MAGA?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@GNS You want me to name a false story, but I'm not allowed to name the most relevant false story. LOL. You really are gullible, aren't you? They must see you coming a mile away.

JD Vance is literally talking about it now as well. This is full blown insanity that this is even being considered settling as a "NO"

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

We already know how it will shake out. UMA will vote No in a landslide, and that will be that.

There are many news outlets like Megan Kelly and Valuetainment to name 2 that are leading with this. The bet was will the affadavit be leaked by Sunday which it was. The fact that this person can also release recordings and everything found to be legit and the yes voters including myself loose this wager is a total sham and leaves polymarket with as much credibility as ABC.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

They hypothetical is important. And we don't even know if it's that off base here. The affidavit in question could also be a fake (and likely is). The point is, we must have confirmation or the market is a sham. Everyone should have realized that even before the clarification came out.

There are many news outlets like Megan Kelly and Valuetainment to name 2 that are leading with this. The bet was will the affadavit be leaked by Sunday which it was. The fact that this person can also release recordings and everything found to be legit and the yes voters including myself loose this wager is a total sham and leaves polymarket with as much credibility as ABC.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@Mountainman The clarification was sound and already obvious to anyone with a couple brain cells. Without it, I could print up an affidavit on my printer, say it's from an ABC whistleblower, and that would count for Yes. You can't honestly believe that that should be how this market resolves, right?

There are many news outlets like Megan Kelly and Valuetainment to name 2 that are leading with this. The bet was will the affadavit be leaked by Sunday which it was. The fact that this person can also release recordings and everything found to be legit and the yes voters including myself loose this wager is a total sham and leaves polymarket with as much credibility as ABC.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@Mountainman, I'm not sure how long you've been at Poly, but it appears that you don't understand how things work around here. The deadline has passed, so this will be resolving No. There is no indefinite time allowance for one side to try to gather more evidence after the market end date.

There are many news outlets like Megan Kelly and Valuetainment to name 2 that are leading with this. The bet was will the affadavit be leaked by Sunday which it was. The fact that this person can also release recordings and everything found to be legit and the yes voters including myself loose this wager is a total sham and leaves polymarket with as much credibility as ABC.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Are you retarded? The key difference in DJT is that PolyMarket disagreed with the outcome. Here, we know what PolyMarket thinks already. They aren't refunding anyone, unless UMA votes Yes (which they won't).

Why has no one mentioned that Polymarket refunded those who bet on the DJT coin after they found out that they got it wrong? Very interesting.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

I didn't say that. But it needs to be confirmed by a credible source, which that tweeter is definitely not.

JD Vance is literally talking about it now as well. This is full blown insanity that this is even being considered settling as a "NO"

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

No affidavit confirmed to be affiliated with someone from ABC has been released. I'm sorry that people are lying to you.

There are many news outlets like Megan Kelly and Valuetainment to name 2 that are leading with this. The bet was will the affadavit be leaked by Sunday which it was. The fact that this person can also release recordings and everything found to be legit and the yes voters including myself loose this wager is a total sham and leaves polymarket with as much credibility as ABC.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

You mean the guy who recently admitted to spreading false stories to get attention is talking about it? No way! LOL

JD Vance is literally talking about it now as well. This is full blown insanity that this is even being considered settling as a "NO"

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@SimpleJack You're not making any sense. We have no verification of the author's identity. The twitter account could have drafted the affidavit themselves. That's why I say that it's akin to allowing a 10-year old to create the affidavit and counting that as Yes.

It's pretty ridiculous anyone thinks it's appropriate to ask a question of whether an affidavit will be released, then add an additional condition that it must also be verified by the initial deadline. It is what it is, but just reflects incredibly poorly on the people who run this website.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

He's a market maker. His buys/sells often have no signifigance at all.

Go vote P2 if you haven’t yet https://discord.gg/uma dohmer justken just bought yes btw

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Do you seriously not understand how this works? PolyMarket applied their rules to the known facts and determined it's a No. There is no way that UMA will overturn this very reasonable ruling.

People seem to be confident in "NO" because it seems like a group of them are in on the scam. If you read what we are betting on "YES" should already win. This is going to become the biggest story in media within days and if they go "NO" it just shows this site is a scam and when big dogs buy up at these crazy high prices, it is built for them not to lose no matter what.

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

Looks like he was aware: https://x.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1835781018441122226

The funniest thing about those markets is that the President is playing Golf totally uaware of the dangers around him

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Nobody took the money. But, yes, you accidentally gave it to them. You sold your shares to them for 8 cents when they were worth more.

I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

@Amok Limit orders do not carry risk if you are using them to place market buys.

I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Is what hopeless? Your money is gone, if that's what you're asking. You filled someone else's orders in the order book.

I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Never use Market orders.

I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Well, what you heard was wrong then. They refunded people because they disagreed with the UMA decision. That obviously isn't going to happen here, since PolyMarket already said this should be a No.

Why has no one mentioned that Polymarket refunded those who bet on the DJT coin after they found out that they got it wrong? Very interesting.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

It's not an additional condition. It's a clarification which makes the market sensible. Without it, my 10-year old cousin could release an affidavit he typed up himself, and it would count.

It's pretty ridiculous anyone thinks it's appropriate to ask a question of whether an affidavit will be released, then add an additional condition that it must also be verified by the initial deadline. It is what it is, but just reflects incredibly poorly on the people who run this website.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

That's not what the rules say, and it's not what people were buying Yes on.

UMA is going to have a field day with this market. But ultimately, this market was always about Donald Trump releasing a memecoin or his own crypto coin. Meaning it would have been open to the public, not some governance token only available to insiders on a project by his sons and his golf partner.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Everyone who will eventually be ripped off by this scam.

Who the hell is listening to this that is not in this market?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Too bad it's almost certainly a scam.

In theory, I even kinda like what they're peddling. A lending alternative to big banks via private online investment. Could be interesting to do that via a blockchain platform. Others have tried it before, but it never took off. I highly doubt this project will crack the formula.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Don Jr. snorts all the coke. The guy can't shut up.

the trump family is so weird.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

I'll agree to resolve the market 50/50 if you can make this stop.

Yes and no UNITED in wanting this misery to end

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

I am getting dumber by the minute listening to these guys vomit their bullshit.

It's incredible the amount of words they can string together just to say absolutely nothing of substance.

What will Trump say during X space?

That scam should work /s

The rules are quite Clear- if Trump says bitcoin 5x, its a yes. It doesnt say which trump in that sentance.

What will Trump say during X space?

The interviewer also said that Trump was in a rush to leave so they could only ask a few questions.

0x68d467ef930999l5eae4d9d5caa655f1edd0af2f

"Your father left", should be enough for you guys to understand he's not coming back... Lol.

What will Trump say during X space?

$9,000 here. See you at the club. Getting bottle service.

made 300 bucks what we eating tonight boys

What will Trump say during X space?

It's not the same as Elon at all. The rules allow for "Elon" alone to count. The rules do not allow for your twisted view.

if anyone has 750, propose comrade kamala. big gap and opportunity there. it's the same as when he only says elon. it also counts. so, for comrade kamala or kamala comrade, both counts. the adjective is still being applied to the name kamala.

What will Trump say during X space?

You're not even getting the rule correct. LOL. "Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count."

he said kamala... comrade... obviously meaning comrade kamala, with comrade as the adjective to the name kamala. this has happened before, it falls under the category of other forms of the usage of the words which also counts

What will Trump say during X space?

LOL nice try doh

he said kamala... comrade... obviously meaning comrade kamala, with comrade as the adjective to the name kamala. this has happened before, it falls under the category of other forms of the usage of the words which also counts

What will Trump say during X space?

Never use market trade. Always use limit buy/sell.

Ok, you FYI you submit a market trade at one price, it will buy at another price if market changes instantly. Stupid.

What will Trump say during X space?

Someone is out to get us. Is someone out to get you?

this interviewer fucking sucks

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

That's not what happened. Completely different situation.

Why has no one mentioned that Polymarket refunded those who bet on the DJT coin after they found out that they got it wrong? Very interesting.

What will Trump say during X space?

He says "border" in his sleep.

Liked by 🥥💊De..., EdgyUserna... and 11 others

Why would he address the border in a conversation about his crypto endeavours

Cops who arrested Tyreek Hill fired?

"any of the" literally the 3 words before your quoted portion.

mipiacesniffare

"cops involved in the September 8 detainment of Tyreek Hill" which one?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Cope. Deadline has passed and we do not have an affidavit confirmed by credible sources. Sorry.

The argument for resolving this market to "YES" is that the key condition—releasing an affidavit by a whistleblower—was met by the deadline. While mainstream sources haven't confirmed it yet, the credibility of the outlets reporting it is subject to interpretation. If these sources turn out to have provided credible information, they would inherently meet the definition of "credible sources," regardless of personal opinions. This is based on the objective meaning of credibility, which would not be disputable if their information is proven accurate. The only fair course of action at this point is to wait for a definitive answer on the credibility of these sources before resolving the market.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Oh, I jumped the gun I guess.

I don't see a second dispute.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Some Yes holders just burned $1,500 on 2 disputes which have no chance of winning. UMA will honor the market end date. Full stop. The vote won't even be close.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Correct. You get it back (plus dispute reward) if you're right. But the disputer will lose this one in a blowout.

So let me get this straight. If I dispute this I have to pay $750? And then I hear I would have to dispute twice so then I would pay $750 again?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Decentralization. $750 may be too large for some, but they have to make it significant enough that it's painful for most users to try abusing the system.

Can someone briefly explain why someone's proposal determines outcome vs awaiting Poly decision? The $750 cost would make disputes prohibitive for most.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

I know that's what you want to believe, but that's honestly the silliest argument. You sound ridiculous trying to push that angle.

the rules only say that the affidavit has to be released by today, not that the media has to confirm its authenticity today. And don’t lie by saying PM doesn’t do open ended market, just go to the “will trump appeal his hush money sentence” market, it doesn’t have a deadline either. The deadline at the top of the page is only an estimate (hover the mouse over it)

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

It's a good thing you waited until 12:00. The rules say "by" 11:59 (which is usually inclusive), not "before" 11:59. I'd have to vote P4 in that dispute.

Will propose this at 11:59 eastern time on the dot if possible. Hopefully someone doesn't beat me by a few seconds, UMA can be slow.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Congrats on winning the upcoming dispute reward from some Yes-tard..

Now is the time for yes holders to dispute, or shut their mouths.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

It's not ambiguous. There is only one end date in the entire rules. Not multiple.

"The name must be either be public on the affidavit, or confirmed by credible sources to have relation to ABC."

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Please show me in the rules where it states what the separate end date is for confirmation.

What am I missing? I thought bet needed CONFIRMED whistleblower association with ABC by the deadline?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@BBNFT Now you're finally starting to understand why No has been trading in the 90s. LOL

What am I missing? I thought bet needed CONFIRMED whistleblower association with ABC by the deadline?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@swebij There have been a few accidental open-ended markets out of thousands of markets. We simply don't do open-ended markets here. The good news is, this one isn't open ended. It has a clear end date.

What am I missing? I thought bet needed CONFIRMED whistleblower association with ABC by the deadline?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@sewbji It doesn't become true just because you keep repeating the same BS over and over.

If this was in fact sent to Mike Johnson the day before the debate, like Ackman said, this will settle "YES".

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

So if we can't prove that this guy is doing a hoax, then is stays open forever. That's ridiculous and you know it. UMA won't fall for that.

Nah just until it is confirmed one way or the other. No way that we don't have the answer this week.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

You're correct. There's nothing in the rules which allows for this to remain open ended. We don't do open-ended markets for good reason.

What am I missing? I thought bet needed CONFIRMED whistleblower association with ABC by the deadline?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

66 minutes until this is a No.

If this was in fact sent to Mike Johnson the day before the debate, like Ackman said, this will settle "YES".

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@Mountainman I have no fear in this risk because you all are very obviously being conned. It's hilarious to watch.

With someone like Ackman directly addressing this with the Disney CEO, a non-answer is an answer. This cannot be closed until this is addressed

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

We're going to know the most likely answer by 9/30, my dude. It's not going to be a "crap shoot".

What happens when the last statement from the FBI is “we’re investigating if others were involved”? Then we’re betting on what UMA believes that the FBI “believes was most likely”. Insane rules. Get it together PM.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

So much copium in here.

With someone like Ackman directly addressing this with the Disney CEO, a non-answer is an answer. This cannot be closed until this is addressed

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

I don't understand the issue here. Yes, the FBI would have to investigate any assassination attempt. And, yes, we are betting on the FBI's conclusion. So?

What happens when the last statement from the FBI is “we’re investigating if others were involved”? Then we’re betting on what UMA believes that the FBI “believes was most likely”. Insane rules. Get it together PM.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@J00zDid9II So you're saying that if I completely fabricated an affidavit and tweeted it out, that should have sufficed for Yes?

Why isn’t the yes vote reflecting the affidavit release?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

False. It's been there for a couple days now.

I have a screenshot from today and that part was NOT on there, despite that date

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Can you guys bring No back to 95c please? Thank you.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

But they can be verified by a trusted source. That's all it is requiring. Or do you think that it should resolve Yes if someone tweets out an affidavit that they printed in their mom's basement?

Whistleblowers ARE NEVER PUBLIC. Why did someone add that one there later?

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

LOL. Okay, I'm not worried here at all.

I feel like this will close yes, but its way too subjective

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@winner69 I can read fine. So how long do you think we should keep this open? Forever? Sorry, but UMA isn't going to allow a wild goose chase here. They'll most likely honor the end date. It's reasonable to expect that the fully authenticated affidavit needs to be released by the end date.

Why isn’t the yes vote reflecting the affidavit release?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@winner69 No, you're the moron. If it takes time to confirm, then it will be past the end date. Hence, the market will resolve No. You're correct that this isn't happening today. You should have taken that into account. LOL

Why isn’t the yes vote reflecting the affidavit release?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Sorry, that was the royal "you" :)

they should add a new bet to see when this resolves, because it could take awhile to dismiss it, if it is fake

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Read the rules.

0x7A6484dE0fd22F46B1328A2607e566DbE662e4ac-1723052896718

It's released why is yes at 5¢

Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?

How is it subjective? Who was he working with?

I feel like this will close yes, but its way too subjective

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Correct. Which obviously isn't going to happen because either: (a) this affidavit is bogus (most likely), or (b) the whistleblower obviously wants to remain anonymous and the Twitter account will not be considered "credible sources".

Why isn’t the yes vote reflecting the affidavit release?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

If that's what you believe, then you are in for a rude awakening.

they should add a new bet to see when this resolves, because it could take awhile to dismiss it, if it is fake

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

@CreditLullaby. Again, the market has an end date. You don't get as much time as you want to try to authenticate this garbage.

they should add a new bet to see when this resolves, because it could take awhile to dismiss it, if it is fake

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

The market has an end date. It will just take a couple days to complete the dispute and then it will resolve.

they should add a new bet to see when this resolves, because it could take awhile to dismiss it, if it is fake

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

All of the stuff he claims to have known before the debate is either: (a) impossible to prove true, or (b) obvious (such as television close ups and split screens erasing height differences).

BlitzschnellCapitalAdvisorsLLP

It is 100% coming. Redacted or not the affidavit can be confirmed to be from an insider based on the notary date and rather the contents actually show that she recieved the questions.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

How exactly does a notary date confirm the author as an insider?

BlitzschnellCapitalAdvisorsLLP

It is 100% coming. Redacted or not the affidavit can be confirmed to be from an insider based on the notary date and rather the contents actually show that she recieved the questions.

What will Trump say during X space?

@Nucclear People have no idea what they're talking about. There's likely no insider trading since it's live. However, theoretically, the interviewers could make these words more or less likely through the questions they ask Trump.

Why is Elon so low? He is sure to mention Elon in a crypto related interview on Twitter right? Or am I missing something?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

I was going to slam No earlier until I read the ambiguous rules, but I believe that the clarification captures the most logical interpretation of the rules.

Always good to see polymarket's greatest complain directly to polymarket admins they lost their $50 position after the general consensus was additional context was needed. Call it total bullshit and say polymarket is unfair though, totally doesn't make you seem like a massive ungrateful baby.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

While I believe that most disputes are not black and white, I believe your take is the correct one.

Always good to see polymarket's greatest complain directly to polymarket admins they lost their $50 position after the general consensus was additional context was needed. Call it total bullshit and say polymarket is unfair though, totally doesn't make you seem like a massive ungrateful baby.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

I think it will resolve Yes.

The Trump’s are not launching a coin. His sons have said this, unequivocally. $TRUMP on etherium on the other hand, is the most prominent, established & credible Trump themed crypto, over a year old and have raised millions for veterans and fighting child trafficking. No shot they release a memecoin because it would make other Trump coins lose money and it could cost them votes in November.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

This is a good take…for me to poop on!

The Trump’s are not launching a coin. His sons have said this, unequivocally. $TRUMP on etherium on the other hand, is the most prominent, established & credible Trump themed crypto, over a year old and have raised millions for veterans and fighting child trafficking. No shot they release a memecoin because it would make other Trump coins lose money and it could cost them votes in November.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

My guess is that it would have to be launched into outer space to count for Yes.

What doesn"launch" mean? Im thinking ICO but I dont think that would happem before election. he is just reveiling what the plans are....right?? lol

Microphones muted during ABC debate?

50/50 is virtually impossible. Only one person even advocated for 50/50 in the UMA-cord evidence channel.

Microphones muted during ABC debate?

Tempted at 0.1c but ya, Mike was muted.

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

And it often takes several days for significant events to sink in, so we *may* not have even seen the real bump yet.

I'm pretty convinced at this point that the market is getting manipulated. There has been multiple post-debate polls come out that show there's been no bump and that voters intentions have not changed... like at all... even slightly more for Trump in some cases, this should be at least a few points lead for Trump. The polls unless every pollster completely fixed their methodologies... would cast Trump deep into the winning side

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

What polls are you looking at? She's been better or held par in most post-debate polls.

I'm pretty convinced at this point that the market is getting manipulated. There has been multiple post-debate polls come out that show there's been no bump and that voters intentions have not changed... like at all... even slightly more for Trump in some cases, this should be at least a few points lead for Trump. The polls unless every pollster completely fixed their methodologies... would cast Trump deep into the winning side

Will there be another debate?

30% return in 2 months is amazing if it's free money. Of course, it's not free money.

gotta wait 2 months though. id bet on no if it resolved by the end of september

Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct?

"Pertinent video" doesn't mean video of the assault, necessarily. It most likely just corroborates part of her story.

Reportedly there is a video of the sexual assault that well be shared with the NFL: https://www.brownsnation.com/report-deshaun-watson-accuser-has-pertinent-video-to-share/

What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?

It's not used anymore. I don't know why they haven't removed the option from the UI.

How does AMM work on polymarket man

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Yes, but by the same token, the potential ROI in the derivative market is far less, making the risk less palatable.

it was way worse, trump was at 52.5 and kamala was 46. now its much much closer

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

You realize that there are whales willing to buy the other side if they think the price is right? Some people tried to fix the last one and failed miserably.

This seems like a bet that could be easily rigged by whales. They bet big on both this and during the 4 hour period and win big.

Will there be another debate?

Yes and no. You'd have to buy 3 brackets in that market to equal 1 Yes bet here.

we already have the same market: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris/1-trump-vs-harris-debate-before-election?tid=1726024620779

What will Trump say at the debate?

What reason is there to talk about someone's high school job?

Why are these guys avoiding talking about Mcdonalds

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Lies is not liar.

RustyWaterSheep

Liar was said like 5 times

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Calmer than you are.

Does she say “I’m speaking” in her speeches? I’m not talking about the little sound bite. “I’m speaking about…” such and such

What will Kamala say at the debate?

The disavowment was a PR move because Project 2025 is so unpopular. But it's a policy document by Trump's policy people.

the fact that project 2025 is at 85 and convicted felon is at 55 is obscene. trump is a convicted felon. he disavowed project 2025. this debate should be about reality not made up shit

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Trump is also obese, but she probably isn't going to say that.

the fact that project 2025 is at 85 and convicted felon is at 55 is obscene. trump is a convicted felon. he disavowed project 2025. this debate should be about reality not made up shit

What will Kamala say at the debate?

I feel like Burger King should count.

0xaa34642D279dC6A1E2d2DDF9Dcb1e737176166fb-1720017288474

what happens if "convicted criminal" is said instead of "felon"

What will Kamala say at the debate?

What happens if she says Burger King instead of McDonald's?

0xaa34642D279dC6A1E2d2DDF9Dcb1e737176166fb-1720017288474

what happens if "convicted criminal" is said instead of "felon"

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Who the hell says "I'm speaking about..." instead of "I'm talking about..."?

Does she say “I’m speaking” in her speeches? I’m not talking about the little sound bite. “I’m speaking about…” such and such

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Just read the rules.

does "AI" count, or does it have to be literally Artificial Int..?

What will Kamala say at the debate?

Plural counts, so the z doesn't even need to be quiet. That dispute won't work, however.

Dispute incoming because she said Wallz but pronounced the z very quiet and Wall got proposed

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

That's not a mispronunciation. He practically skipped over the entire word.

Trump photographed holding baby in August?

He'll touch the 16 year old ones.

Young enough to hold in the air. When it happens it'll be indisputable. He hates small children and won't touch the older ones.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

@@HsB34sgg Why did you tell me you wanted to understand if you were just going to reply with your bullshit answers anyways. You're so stupid it hurts.

Compound words don't need to have a hyphen in them to be a compound word. It's kinda wild that's in the rules and this isn't resolved to yes

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

I don't recommend buying into this market because you're literally retarded.

I don't recommend buying into this market due to the faulty structural verification issues with the Polymarket and UMA partnership. The UMA token holders vote has already resulted in an incorrect result. A correction, at this point, requires an internal Polymarket review and hard override.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

How in the world is that contradictory? It's saying compound words count. Other forms don't. Simple logic.

The fundamental problem is that the rules contradict themselves. "Other forms will not count." "Compound words will count." Which side you back depends on which side you own.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

"Tbh I am really curious to see how Polymarket will resolve this..." The vote was already clinched as of yesterday evening. It's a No.

Having some shares but mostly for fun as I don’t expect anything. However this is a revelation for me as it forced me to read about UMA validation process. Tbh I am really curious to see how Polymarket will resolve this as, without judging the outcome, the overall poor moderation and statements of the bet can be the o my things that will be underlined if this gets public on a wider audience. I am pretty new to this and I am wondering if other sites control more the statements to ensure non-anbiguous resolution and also avoid post-publication amendments (technically once te first bet is placed the rules should be frozen)

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-aug-23/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-aug-23?tid=1724682790163 Dont use polymarket, admins rigg it with UMA voters. Shit is a giant scam view thread for proof. 0 integrity

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

@HsB34sgg Joy-filled is a hyphenated compound word. Joyfully is deceiving. It might look like a compound word made up of Joy + fully, but really it’s just the adverb form of “joyful” with an -ly suffix attached,

Compound words don't need to have a hyphen in them to be a compound word. It's kinda wild that's in the rules and this isn't resolved to yes

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

I'm suing them for wasting my weekend with a stupid dispute.

I'm suing all the people threatening to sue Polymarket for defamation. (jk)

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Nobody is arguing that a compound word must have a hyphen. But Joyful is still not a compound word. Joyride is a compound word.

Compound words don't need to have a hyphen in them to be a compound word. It's kinda wild that's in the rules and this isn't resolved to yes

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Vote isn't over. There's a 24-hour vote commite period (complete) and a 24-hour vote reveal phase (in progress).

Wondering why this market is still both (1) open and (2) active after the UMA vote concluded a few hours ago? Does it usually take several hours on PM after votes conclude for markets to close?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

0xE509fB4ba1f63A50FFF037EdB645f2F87B9c3fdA-1724033541549

apparently a polymarket janny is turbo deleting several cogent "No" posts

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

There’s going to be a big dump overnight which will completely flip the market.

oh my god retards are still buying no.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LOL. That is all. LOL.

This isn't some ordinary racket going on. The forensic investigation of the data, show a deeper story. I normally dont become so interested. but the evidence is overwhelming of market fixing. That many lives will be ruined. Family torn apart. And assets seized by the US. Government.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

@JoeDominican Yes, there are sources which say that, but they are not linguistic sources, which is the discipline we are talking about here. The authoritative works on the subject say that Joyful is not a compound word. If you were taught Engish grammar in school, they taught you that Joyful is not a compound word.

But it is undisputed that she said JOYful so call me a retard but i just bought more YES.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

That's too bad because you're wrong. Did you skip English grammar class or is it a second language for you.

prob will resolve no but for the record, haven't seen one argument from a worthwhile source that counters all the sources linked by the yes voters. vibes wins against rules again whatever

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Exactly. Joyful is not a compound word.

But it is undisputed that she said JOYful so call me a retard but i just bought more YES.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

@BlueSky123 That's 11% of my Poly bankroll and under 5% of my total gambling bankroll. This was 99.5% bond. Not only did PolyMarket clarify, but linguists agree that Joyful is not a compound word. UMA voters took English grammar class in high school and remember being taught what a compound word is. There's no way they were going to overturn under these circumstances.

But it is undisputed that she said JOYful so call me a retard but i just bought more YES.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

You didn't review the Reddit thread on this then? Subject matter experts said it was No and cited reputable sources, saying the Mirriam-Webster website was not an authority on the subject.

prob will resolve no but for the record, haven't seen one argument from a worthwhile source that counters all the sources linked by the yes voters. vibes wins against rules again whatever

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

You are a retard because the rules say that word didn't count.

But it is undisputed that she said JOYful so call me a retard but i just bought more YES.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

A guaranteed 3% profit over 3 days is 365% annualized.

im gonna laugh hard at cucks who talk shit with no, but if you win sure you can take my 1$ lmfao

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Well, it’s a guarantee that you’ll be losing that money, so who’s the idiot?

im gonna laugh hard at cucks who talk shit with no, but if you win sure you can take my 1$ lmfao

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

This post reeks of desperation.

i also found this explanation: Merriam-Webster considers words formed with suffixes, such as "-ful," as compound words because a suffix like "-ful" can act as an element that modifies the root word, similar to how two full words combine in other compounds. When suffixes like "-ful" are attached, they can create words that are conceptually similar to compound words even if they are treated slightly differently grammatically. The flexibility in how compound words are classified allows for this inclusion, as English compounds can range from simple pairings of standalone words to more complex structures involving prefixes, suffixes, and hyphens. This approach highlights the dynamic nature of language and its adaptability. This seems to clarify why M-W includes joyful as a compound word. It's going to Yes as u guys said before, it seems. What a semantics lesson!

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Anyone can look at the price history and see that you're lying.

Not true banklin, it was at 70% post speech, only after clarification did it drop

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

It's okay. I understand that interpreting rules can be difficult.

Wait a second are you no retards seriously arguing if joyful counts? SHE LITERALLY says JOY-FUL you can't say it without saying joy first this is so fucking stupid. She is saying the word out loud there should not be an argument. Damn Polymarket really is super rigged.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Relay (@nook), I see you got a new account. Are you going to drive this one's P&L in the red as well? Have you seen mine lately? Maybe you should start taking notes.

I would sell while you still can.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

I would sell while you still can.

Harris said "Joyful". This market resolves compound words for joy to Yes. A majority of authoritative sources agree that prefix and suffixes like "-ful" can be used to create compound words. Therefore this market has to resolve to Yes. https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/spelling-using-compound-words-guide/prefixed-suffixed-and-combining-form-compounds

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

He looks like a lunatic in there arguing with subject matter experts, telling them they're wrong despite them citing sources.

fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa

you can find sources in this thread posted by people familiar with the linguistics literature. As you know, of course, since you posted in the thread, but you again choose to lie and claim that there are no sources disagreeing with you https://www.reddit.com/r/asklinguistics/comments/1ezrv5m/is_joyful_a_compound_word/

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

The price will not approach 50/50. It won't even approach 90c. This outcome is clear cut. PolyMarket issued a clarification and UMA will not overturn it.

I expect the share prices to be closer to 50/50 as we get closer to the vote, momentum does seem to be shifting a bit to the other direction.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

You're hilarious. You should do stand up.

Joy being compound is a solved subject on the voting-discussion discord. The only pending question is whether or not UMA will overturn PM's decision

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

LOL. You clearly don't understand how this works.

I expect the share prices to be closer to 50/50 as we get closer to the vote, momentum does seem to be shifting a bit to the other direction.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

On any prediction market, when a clarification is made this late in the game, it effectively decides the market. It's been the same way on every platform. You should have been around before PolyMarket was issuing clarifications. It was a shit show.

how is it a clarification if it resolves the market

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

On any prediction market, when a clarification is made this late in the game, it effectively decides the market. You should have been around before PolyMarket was issuing clarifications. It was a shit show.

how is it a clarification if it resolves the market

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Technically, she did not. She said a completely different word. You can tell because they're listed separately in the dictionary.

She did technically say joy.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

You just haven't been around very long. We arrived at this particular set of rules through a long learning process. There are reasons for the way in which they are formed. Frankly, I don't see the problem. If the rules say "coached" doesn't count for "coach", then that's what you're betting on. Adjust.

Intent is required to secure a conviction in Criminal Law. The logic is that punishment should not be passed on those who are associated without choice. Kamala chose to say joyful, with the intention of conveying its emotion and meaning. The technicalities and precedent that are being leaned on to justify a "no" are both illogical. Human error in establishing logical rules is the root to this dispute

Will Trump admit 'Operation Warp Speed' was his fault?

The mental jiu-jitsu Trump has had to perform, trying to convince people that COVID wasn't a big deal at all, yet he somehow saved the nation with his Operation Warp Speed...to now possibly having to admit it was a failure all along. It's just hilarious.

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

is there no market for Trump's rally?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

I'm not worried. But you are falling for a bad argument. At **worst** each side has legitimate arguments, so it's strange to say that clarifications have to be triple fact checked when they have to pick one of the sides to be correct.

Oh hell naw. These polymarket clarifications need to be tripple fact checked

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Pumpkin doesn't make sense as a compound word at all. Is "heat" a comound word? It looks like it's comprised of "he" + "at", which are two words, right? But we both know that's not they etymology of the word "heat", and therefore, it's not a compound word. The same thing goes for "pumpkin". The fact that it looks like it is comprised of "pump" + "kin" is merely a coincidence.

Pumpkin kind of makes sense at least, both pump and kin are words. "ful" isn't however.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

The clarification is perfectly fine. Weren't you just saying that the English language is not your strength? And yet you're somehow able to determine which side's argument is correct?

Oh hell naw. These polymarket clarifications need to be tripple fact checked

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

UMA whales don't even know it exists yet.

uma is very upset about this clarification

Kamala or Trump convention speech gets more viewers?

"Let's not forget Trump's speech was on a Friday night..." It looks like you already forgot, because Trump's speech was on Thursday night. LOL

Let's not forget Trump's speech was on a Friday night, and depending how long the big party heads/celebrities speak she might not take the stage until 10pm CST. A ton of people would have gone to sleep, and I don't think this spech will eclipse the fact Trump's speech was his first public appearance after his assassination attempt. This is easily a 50-50 market.

What will Kamala Harris say in August?

It’s well known that one of Kamala’s speech writers is a big time bettor on here. Be careful!

why is coconut trending down.. same q for unburdened... hmm..

What will Trump say in August?

Why? Two out of 4 have hit and one of the remaining words is something he’s said a lot previously,

why even create this market? its pure dogshti

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

was the addtl context just posted i just got here

Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

Been done before. They’re rare but they happen.

So we're doing options now? Ok I'm down

Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

Can I join this one?

new type of scam squad bout to drop

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

I uploaded it at 7:33 this morning and it has one view.

Let me in to the discord channel where you coordinate the pump and dumps

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

That’s right here. Pay attention.

Let me in to the discord channel where you coordinate the pump and dumps

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

"Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (i.e. "Jewish" would not count")."

Jew is undervalued, the reason being her husband is Jewish, and she brings it up. In convention acceptance speeches, they usually go over their history and their family. Previously, Kamala has given speeches and mentioned Doug and specifically Jew. Look at Doug's speech, he mentioned Jew a lot.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Why would she say that? It's a mouthful and it's not her slogan.

KamalaHarris-Realaccount

she might say "we are not going to go back"

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

You can't be serious.

do Donald and Trump count to 5 separately? Does it have to be 5 Trump or 5 Donald or can either Donald or Trump count towards the same 5?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Because she's running for President of the USA, not president of the Republic of Congo.

Liked by Car, n/a and 9 others

why is no one talking about the monkeypox trade 4% is way too low

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

Creed and Nickelback. Once in a lifetime opportunity.

Hearing reports the surpise act is in fact REEL BIG FISH

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

Jay-Z spotted at Chicago Four Seasons.

why are we at 80%?

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

sharky🦈🦈🦈

Other than Beyonce. Who could they bring in to sing for tommrow?

Who will speak at the DNC?

They're trading kandi at the DNC? Are they hopped up on molly too?

Dude might know what he's doing. "Signs of Taylor Swift on Wrists at the Democratic Convention" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/style/taylor-swift-friendship-bracelets-dnc.html

Who will speak at the DNC?

I don't sweat, but thanks.

Private jet from Nashville to the dnc this morning … https://x.com/chadizzy1/status/1826707357046636990?s=46

Who will speak at the DNC?

You can probably find a private jet between almost any 2 major US cities on any given day.

Private jet from Nashville to the dnc this morning … https://x.com/chadizzy1/status/1826707357046636990?s=46

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

I do not believe that should count as it's clearly not in the spirit of the market. The idea of these markets is to count how many times something will be mentioned. "Donald Trump" is one mention. The rules are merely pointing out that "Donald" alone and "Trump" also counts as a mention.

The rules on the “Donald Trump” market are unclear. It’s says “resolve to yes if she says “Donald” or Trump” 5+ times. So if she says “Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Trump” is that 5?

Who will speak at the DNC?

Michelle finally taking over the nomination or Biden demanding it back?

https://x.com/angry_staffer/status/1826672766625743095?s=46

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

And the rules say other forms don't count.

"coached" is the past simple form of "coaching". That's obvious.

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

@RRJ gotta read the rules to know what counts.

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

Seems pretty straightforward to me. " however other forms will NOT count"

Nyr11messier - 2170

That market is going to be a mess. He said coached and coaching. Coaching doesn't count. Unsure on coached

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

Read the rules. It says yes.

0x14059A3394486955E03439A11a4CCe583597d432-1722891171182

Mpox = Monkeypox?

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

They should add “deez”.

What is a runza? Is someone going to runza balls in my face? That would be very unbecoming of polymarket to make this joke...

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

The cool thing is you can bet and not have to watch.

no amount of money could make me watch these bitches yapping for 4 fucking hours.

Who will speak at the DNC?

We probably shouldn’t invent rules. “ Brief comments, introductions, or participation in a panel or discussion do not count for a "Yes" resolution, they must actually give a speech.” A song is not a speech and the rules discount opening remarks.

🤺JustPunched

Just singing a song, I think that would be a No for me. If they intro'ed the song or said something after the song, like "Make sure y'all support Kamala out there" (a few sentences like that) then I think the totality of what occurred (song + remarks) would be the equivalent of a speech.

Who will speak at the DNC?

I see. Sorry about that.

Ok but if Charli or Taylor just perform their songs, would it be considered as speech?

Who will speak at the DNC?

You can't be serious. The rules don't say "speech", they say "a speech". We all know what a speech is, right?

Ok but if Charli or Taylor just perform their songs, would it be considered as speech?

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

I didn't kill my parents. I eased their economic anxiety.

She won't say abortion. Baby killers like to mask their evil with cushy happy words like "Reproductive Freedom".

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

There are two different forms of fire up. He certainly said the form which is comprised of 2 separate words. Thanks for playing.

he said fire up

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

What a bozo. And I’m literally a clown.

prob someone who didn't like the context of how he said it

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

Who's the bozo who incorrectly disputed "Fired"? Congrats on literally burning $750 X 2. And pissing off all of the Yes shareholders who now have to wait to collect their winnings.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

You're a moron. Check the context. It's not the same "fired up" you're thinking about.

Even GPT-4 and Claude agree: "Yes, "fired-up" and "fire-up" are compound words. When two or more words are combined to form a single adjective that modifies a noun, it is considered a compound adjective or a compound word. For example: "He was fired-up about the new project." or in your case the statement "We are going to fire-up our plants", would count as a compound word and the market would be disputed.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

It's a compound word so easy money when it gets disputed

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

how about blockchain?

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

I think chances of that happening are low. The reason he’s doing these PCs is to try to steal the front page from Kamala, since she’s been getting so much media attention. He believes he can talk his way through anything.

Even funnier if he cancels the press conference and it doesn't get rescheduled.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

At least 2 of your examples would not count.

Rules: "Yes" if Trump says "Fire" or "Fired". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count...so Trump could mention that a bullet was "fired" at him. Trump can mention that the man who was killed during his assassination attempt was a fire fighter. Trump can answer a question concerning the recent reporting that he wants to fire his campaign leadership. Trump can mention a cease-fire in Gaza. He could get asked about the recent headlines about him wanting to fire striking workers. He could talk about the fires that burned in Minneapolis while Tampon Tim Walz was governor. He could mention a missile fired at our military bases by Hezbollah that caused American casualties. He might mention the fires in the Western US. Trump can say his literal catch phrase "you're fired".

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

Quite often, actually.

Does Trump ever NOT say "fake news"? Did I really just buy these at 42c? 🤯

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

He definitely says both and has been using "illegal immigrant" more often lately.

he says "illegal aliens"

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

There's a little overcompensation happening.

Funny to see how last market outcome influences the odds of this one.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

What? What last time? He didn't say it with Elon nor at the last Mar-a-Lago PC.

He did say couch last time...

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

He was also asked a question about China. Questions asked will drive a lot of this.

Trump said China 8 times during the previous press conference a few days ago.

Bird flu pandemic in 2024?

which couuntrry?

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

I doubt very much it's insiders. They might *think* they have some priviledged information. I've seen that before.

why else would market this is supposed to be 48-52 be 65-70. Insiders are tripping overthemselves trying to buy this

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

If there are insiders betting here, then 68c for Boy seems like a steal.

Who will speak at the DNC?

True. But there are a lot of speakers not mentioned in that article.

In the article posted by ack below, Barack is mentioned and Michelle is not.

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

If Elon doesn't end this, he'll keep talking until tomorrow morning.

bro will not stop yapping

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

There will be tons of people spamming the chat with questions, most of whom having zero financial interest.

Hes going to be taking questions from the chat, youd better believe people will be spamming all of these words

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

You haven't looked very hard then. He's called Kamala weird a bunch of times lately, including once before the Harris campaign even started using that phrase.

I don't think I've ever heard Trump use the word "weird"

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

I bet No on Mars, but the reason this is on here is because of the possibilty of Elon prompting him with a question about landing on Mars. Not Trump saying it on his own.

I think Trump in general is more interested in planet earth. Of all the words, I really don't see him saying that. Certainly has never said it in his speeches.

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

Nah, the reason why she won't commit to the FoxNews debate is because she knows that once Trump gets that one, he won't show up for any ohters. They want him to follow through with the original agreement.

Both parties agreed. Backing out would look worse than poor performance. Question now is how many debates

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

No, it was Trump's background vetting of Rubio, Vance, et al. who were being considered for the VP slot.

Why did they find research on Marco Rubio in the documents?

2024 July hottest on record?

There's a model?

You're buying YES because you decoded and reverse engineered NASA's model and then plugged in the entirely of this months' data. I'm buying YES because I trust aenews to do that for me. We are not the same.

2024 July hottest on record?

Your question looked like a rhetorical one. In any case, I'ma allowed to comment on your post, aren't I?

By the way, anews2 and bama124 have bought 480000 shares in the last 24 hours without the price moving upwards. Amazing, isn't it? Have you ever seen anything like it?

2024 July hottest on record?

Well one person put up a wall of like ~300k shares at 77c, so that had a lot to do with it..

By the way, anews2 and bama124 have bought 480000 shares in the last 24 hours without the price moving upwards. Amazing, isn't it? Have you ever seen anything like it?

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

No. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again""

When it says say MAGA does it mean literally ‘MAGA” or actually “Make America Great Again£

Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?

Look at Top Holders. Different "bond"

I see 750. Where do you see 330k?

2024 July hottest on record?

"2) risking the market for everyone, because it is likely to make Nasa feel uneasy. The delay in releasing data this month, plus a comment a few hours ago, point to this already." Everything contained in this quote is silly.

I am puzzled about all the people asking for and sharing info about Nasa's analysis. Although in general I appreciate camaraderie, I think this is not the place for it. Here, you risk: 1) making less money, because the more ppl figure it out, the less profit is there to make for you; and 2) risking the market for everyone, because it is likely to make Nasa feel uneasy. The delay in releasing data this month, plus a comment a few hours ago, point to this already. If you want to showcase your coding abilities, and get the praise you are probably after, please join a coding group or something. Here we are competing, not collaborating! Also, those asking for direct coding advice may as well simply ask for donations to their wallets--it is the same thing

2024 July hottest on record?

Brokie is on Yes side.

Notice how smart guys with data voting no, yet if so smart why betting so little, if so smart why so brokie?

2024 July hottest on record?

There’s some real Lois Einhorn and Ray Finkle energy in here.

2024 July hottest on record?

The important thing is that we all had fun.

Id say the important thing is who makes money

2024 July hottest on record?

Thank god I arbed off book.

2024 July hottest on record?

"Note: If 2024 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher." Thank fucking god

2024 July hottest on record?

I had a telescope as a child

Convinced people are just LARPing as insiders, you would think the nerds at NASA would have something better to do than gamble their money. I'm only here because I am bored and having nothing better to do.

2024 July hottest on record?

I am trading inside.

Democratic VP nominee?

Yeah, lots of reasons why he won't even run, and his recent sexual harrasment accusations are among them.

Why the fuck does Mark Cuban have a 4% chance lmfao

Democratic Nominee 2024

Looks like that's exactly what they did.

they didn't kick biden out just to install kamala.. lol

Democratic Nominee 2024

Dean Phillips has a 0% chance of being the nominee.

Dean Philiips came in second after Biden in the Primary so choosing him would be the most democratic process. He was among the first to openly express concerns about Bidens age and declining health while Harris kept quiet about it and comes across as very insincere and is polling even worse than Biden. In elections white male candidates have generally appealed to a wider audience potentially helping secure swing states and crucial electoral votes. They could keep Kamala as Vice President. Also Dean Phillips has a reputation for working across party lines and could help bridge divides possibly even attracting voters who lean towards Trump. At 54 years old he offers a nice youthfull contrast to Biden.

Democratic VP nominee?

They don't fare so well in national elections. People are superficial when it comes to voting.

SELL-YES-BUY-NO

pritzker and walz extremely undervalued, named in every second tweet discussing the pick, great profiles, featured in most VP pick short lists in the last hours, definitely not sitting at a 1% chance imo

Democratic VP nominee?

Pritzker is shorter and fatter than Chris Christie. Walz is the oldest looking 60 year old I've seen in a while -- he looks like Bernie.

SELL-YES-BUY-NO

pritzker and walz extremely undervalued, named in every second tweet discussing the pick, great profiles, featured in most VP pick short lists in the last hours, definitely not sitting at a 1% chance imo

Democratic Nominee 2024

What are you babbling on about? There is no Dem nominee yet. The party hasn’t chosen. They could choose Ariana Grande if they wanted to. Once they choose, that’s who will go on the state ballots.

ThereAreNoExperts

New candidates cannot join the race if biden drops out and there is an open convention and the only candidates on enough ballots to compete are Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson and Armando Perez-Serrato

Democratic Nominee 2024

How many hours before his first nap?

Sell before the rug is pulled! Biden will wake up energized (and out for revenge!) in the morning.

Democratic VP nominee?

Two truths and one lie. I love this game!

Shapiro, Whitmer & Newsome have all declined according to The Hill & Axios

Republican VP nominee?

You can sell your shares at any time as long as there is demand at the price you want.

do you have to wait for every mkt to resolve before you get paid or is there a way to sell it and cash out at less than 100. for example you buy vance at .25 and he is trading at .50. can you sell at .50 or do you have to sell .50 and put up more capital???? thanks alot in advance

Fact Check: Was it a rogue actor?

It may surprise you to learn that they typically conduct investigations into assassination attempts.

000000000000000000000000000000000000000

How the fuck are you gonna verify that? He is dead

Republican VP cont.

"Those believed to be on Obama’s short list stayed mum. Biden coyly told reporters staking out his home in Delaware, “I’m not the guy,” as he drove by."

CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente

so sad people got tricked, thousands of dollars set on fire

Biden stumbles by Friday?

You have it backwards. They're going to be doing a full court press these next few weeks to try to fix his image.

Will Biden be seen in public by next Friday?

Republican VP nominee?

If he has the courage.

Pence has a shot still.

Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?

No one is using misleading camera angles. We have the camera angle they give us. We clearly see him close his eyes and bow his head down. You are assuming that he opened his eyes when he did so. I don't think he did. It looks like we see him open his eyes again a few seconds later.

8:08 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE&t=1689s Some people try to mislead with incorrect camera angles, but at 8:08, we can clearly see him taking notes rather than closing his eyes.

Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?

Okay, but that's not the incident in question. In the relevant clip, we see him close his eyes.

8:08 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE&t=1689s Some people try to mislead with incorrect camera angles, but at 8:08, we can clearly see him taking notes rather than closing his eyes.

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

The funny thing is I actually understand what beaver is saying there.

THE BEAVER IS HERE, ASK ME FOR THE TRUE

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

That's not true at all relay, but okay. If you're talking about the huge waterfall dumps that literally everyone participates in, including Domer, then yeah, guilty I suppose. Anyways, people don't always act rationally, but here they have had a long time to discuss strategy. They're going to mount an entirely different type of defense rather than try to pull something off that will only serve to anger the SEC even more.

Most of you betting no dont understand that it doesnt matter if it was a hack or not, she will say it was, just like RTK, in order evade legal action. Please use your brain lol

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

She's in way too deep. Can't say it's a hack now because it's not at all believeable. The SEC will laugh in her face, expect her to provide proof that she was hacked, and then laugh in her face again. You can't possibly still believe this theory.

Most of you betting no dont understand that it doesnt matter if it was a hack or not, she will say it was, just like RTK, in order evade legal action. Please use your brain lol

Will Trump mention $boden before July?

Wow. I'm sweating.

it was close again: https://x.com/rasmr_eth/status/1793756290977808389

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Kim Kardashian was paid $250k to promote EMAX. There is a HUGE difference between the promotional power of Kim's IG account and Caitlyn's Twitter. You're overestimating the fees that B- and C-list celebrities can command for social media promos.

Im still confident she got hacked. Bro its a fucking celebrity that wants huge ammount of money to promote anything. Not an indian ruggie dev can afford her. Something smelling bad im all in on yes

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Or just one of our resident trolls.

bro everyone knows, that you are a 2. Acc of someone who bought Yes :D

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Okay, good. Social engineering doesn't qualify for Yes in this market. Now we can all agree it's No. Caitlyn came clean and cleared it up for us.

CaitlynJennersAccount

No it was a hack through social engineering. I would never have made those posts myself. It is illegal what has happened

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Not one bit. Just annoyed that I have to wait now because someone wanted to throw $1,500 away on a surefire losing dispute.

DECRAPisDUMBandGAY

why do you care so much? scared?

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

So who burned $750 x 2 by disputing this?

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

20c won't work either. History shows that it needs to be at least 35c.

btw if a market is disputed and the price never gets above 10c, you will always lose. So you need to pump the price to 20c to have a chance

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

If it’s posted somewhere else, that could be faked by too. Oh dear, well never know!

It needs to be posted somewhere else other than her twitter, otherwise could just be AI

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

They’ll be lighting another $750 on fire.

fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa

I agree. I just hope no one disputes so we can get our money out sooner

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

It would be nearly unanimous.

fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa

yes, it's being proposed because the second video of jenner arguably meeting the condition "if Caitlyn Jenner personally and verifiably confirms that she was not hacked"

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

UMA will vote No on that question no doubt. They aren’t going to ignore actual videos from Caitlyn and her manager. That’s not how they roll.

fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa

yes, it's being proposed because the second video of jenner arguably meeting the condition "if Caitlyn Jenner personally and verifiably confirms that she was not hacked"

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

Correct. She chose her words very carefully, basically just saying that she cannot vote for the Democrat (no sh*t, Sherlock - we all knew that). And the inclusion of the word "explicitly" raises the bar considerably. This doesn't pass muster.

again, you can spam as many links as you want. I've posted at least FIVE credible news sources that say she did NOT endorse trump. Moreover, there are a plethora of news sources that report the story WITHOUT mentioning the word "endorse" at all. This is enough to prove that 1) you do NOT have a consensus of credible media reporting and 2) you did NOT meet the bar of EXPLICITLY endorse, as per the rules.

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

It means they’re trolling Business Insider and its readers. Nothing more.

hi doesthis mean will resolve yes or no?? "Polymarket told Business Insider the @SCHL0MS account "has been an experiment conducted by Polymarket alongside the Remilia Corporation. I cannot comment further on the status of who currently owns @TheRoaringKitty." Remilia Corporation is a decentralized autonomous organization and art collective. Advertisement Gill did not reply to a request for comment sent by Business Insider via his other social media accounts. "

Roaring Kitty tweets a company ticker/name by Friday?

A lot of people saw it. There was hesitancy about a rules cuck.

cant believe nobody saw it for 1 hour lmao (including me)

$GME market cap on May 17

I'll tip you, but only if you promise to spend it on drugs.

yo bro can u tip me $5?

Peter Salovey out as Yale President in April?

Misclicks happen

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

Spend $196, receive $195, spend $198... next-level trading!

Republican Nominee 2024

What do you mean? There is neg risk.

WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets

what was the point of splitting liquidity with this market if there's no neg risk?

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

Romney needs to smoke a bowl and chill the f out.

https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-leads-letter-to-dea-highlighting-concerns-with-rescheduling-marijuana-and-compliance-with-u-s-treaty-obligations/

SBF reduced sentence because autism?

What transcript are you referring to? We don't have one yet.

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF's sentence in this case is shorter than it would be otherwise because he is autistic." Has SBF being autistic contributed to his sentence being made shorter, according to the transcript? It has not. Is this somehow contradicted by media reports on the case? It is not. Anyone who claims that this issue is somehow contentious is arguing in bad faith. This market has to resolve.

Doge ETF approved in 2024?

VibesGreaterRules

Should have at least 20k rewards.

SBF reduced sentence because autism?

I wouldn’t call what I’ve seen a transcript. It’s paraphrasing.

VibesGreaterRules

Someone on twitter posted an unofficial transcript. Can anyone link that?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

I just stepped outside and it's pretty chilly here. I'm betting No.

2023 has already been confirmed as the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 by a considerable margin. The mean global temperature for 2023 was 1.48 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, with every month from June to December breaking existing records for high temperatures. This trend underscores the significant impact of human-caused climate change coupled with natural variations such as El Niño. Experts suggest that, as a result, 2024 is very likely to rank among the top three warmest years, if not the warmest on record. The UK Met Office has also predicted that 2024 could be the first year to surpass a global average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a critical threshold for limiting global warming. Given these insights and the fact that El Niño events typically lead to higher global temperatures, the Global Temperature Index for March 2024 could very well be among the highest on record, potentially exceeding the historical average by significant margins.

RFK Jr. picks Nicole Shanahan as running mate?

Mike Johnson out as Speaker before May?

Yeah, that's why this exists.

MTG just filed a motion to oust Johnson: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-03-22-24/index.html

Kate Middleton video fake?

They didn't walk anything back. Reporting what some conspiracy theorists are saying =/= walking it back. They also interviewed the Kate lookalike who said it wasn't her in the video. You're correct that the crown won't comment on the video though.

It's definitely not Kate, TMZ walked it back already, but I doubt the crown will acknowledge it

MH370 underwater wreckage found before July?

If they only find end caps and a debris field, this market resolves No!

VibesGreaterRules

What about the hull?

First place in California Senate Primary?

Soy un huevo desnudo Mexicano.

Since we are all hanging out here in suspense, a side questions. How many Americans are here, with the site banned in the US? Some people are making very US centric comments. Are you guys accessing the site via some clever tools?

First place in California Senate Primary?

Not worried. They probably could profit if they decided to change gears. But the site hasn't grown to where they want it to be yet. They obviously have healthy funding from VC's so investors see promise. This is normal.

Only started here last month, so question: how does Poly Market make money? lol

First place in California Senate Primary?

Selling Schiff No for 80c. Final offer.

Not feeling as great, but coin flip seems about right. Willing to sell out at 50c, Schiffheads 😉

First place in California Senate Primary?

I’m airdropping new ballots into Kern on the Kob as we speak.

Uh oh looks like they printed another 20K ballots in Alameda. Dem fraud machine is undefeated

First place in California Senate Primary?

I seem to remember OC being super slow to count for whatever reason. We didn’t know some of the House race results until weeks later

But they have more ballots, just counting slowly afaik

First place in California Senate Primary?

Why do we care about lots of markets on this site?

Asking for a friend - other than providing gambling fodder, why do we care who gets 1st place?

First place in California Senate Primary?

I'm not sure that there's any misunderstanding. The votes are very far from being completely counted.

there seems to be a huge misundertanding between the "open primary" (where currently schiff is leading) and "special open primary" (where currently Garvey is leading). See https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-california-us-senate.html This poll is about the "open primary".

Republican VP nominee?

how is desantis not on this

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024?

No, but if her dog has a litter, that counts.

Does Surrogacy count?

Trump SC speech: what will he say most?

I can't count. I'm a nude egg.

I count ~300 more dollars in my portfolio due to my trading in this market 🥳🎉

'Dune: Part Two' Opening Weekend Box Office

Great job, YieldGuy. Now the secret is out and everyone knows this box office is going way over.

https://twitter.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1762592199236059592 gg

'Dune: Part Two' Opening Weekend Box Office

https://twitter.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1762592199236059592 gg

Will BTC hit $55,000 in February?

Who the hell are you?

how tables have turned

'Dune: Part Two' Opening Weekend Box Office

It's 50/50 because it either happens or doesn't happen.

IMHO the possibility of dune performing >100m is at 50%/50% because of four reasons: 1: Dune Part I was released during peak pandemic and release on HBO max and grossed 41m. 2: Dune Part II has a followership from Dune readers as well as new fans from part I. 3: Very good feedback from early viewers/critics. 4: No big releases in and around end of march/ oscars hype.

Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday?

@size Tomorrow isn't determinative.

She might be deranged enough to go to super tuesday. Scheduled rally in Texas on feb 15. So far she has been campaigning only in SC https://nikkihaley.com/events/

Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary?

She may not drop out, but the existence of activities doesn't mean anything. If she cancelled them all today, then there would be no need for her to announce a drop out tomorrow as everyone would already know.

But Nikky's twitte still fighting with trump hours ago. And https://nikkihaley.com/events/, still have activities on 20-23th

Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday?

@size I don't understand what you're thinking here. Should campaigns just wait and see the results of each primary before they make plans to campaign for the next ones? That makes no sense. If you own a small business and might have to close it due to bankruptcy, you don't tell your employees to stop working hard before you've made the final decision.

She might be deranged enough to go to super tuesday. Scheduled rally in Texas on feb 15. So far she has been campaigning only in SC https://nikkihaley.com/events/

Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday?

I'm not sure a scheduled rally means anything. Her campaign has to plan events under the assumption that she's going to continue. Any major campaign is full steam ahead until it isn't.

She might be deranged enough to go to super tuesday. Scheduled rally in Texas on feb 15. So far she has been campaigning only in SC https://nikkihaley.com/events/

Will Biden drop out by Friday?

Easy. Go on a drug bender this weekend and fail to look after my orders.

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

How is Nude Egg gonna fuck up trading this one? 😭

Super Bowl: Usher's first song in Halftime Show?

Name the last song in Super Bowl history played in its entirety.

is the market what song was played first or what song was played first in its entirety?

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

Thank you to all the "Nuclear" retards... YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW HARD I WAS LAUGHING AT YOUR DUMB ASS AS YOU KEPT FADING ME, DUMFUQ DECRAPP 🤡👈🤣🤣🤣🤣

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

Who was the counterparty for your 9,000 losing Tucker/Putin by Friday market shares? I would also like to congratulate them.

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

I congratulate everyone who has TENA(dis)ABLED-OME for a counterparty. Tenadome thought it was over 60% likely Tucker went to Moscow just to have fun! 🤡👈🤣 (I ALWAYS believed Tucker was there for an interview, thanks for the money DUMFUQ NAMAN). What a DUMB guy, handing out 40 cent Tucker Does an Interview shares! 😆

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

A wildcard here is "...only the included translation of Putin's speech will be used for this market's resolution." What kind of artistic license will they be taking to communicate clearly with American viewers?

🤺JustPunched

I was surprised by the pricing in "gay" and "Zelensky." Putin doesn't really use the word gay often that I'm aware of, and he famously never uses Zelensky's name (I think only once).

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

The word in double-quotes is "gay", not "homosexual".

Does “homosexual” count as “gay” or not?

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

Okay, but those Oliver Stone interviews were recorded between 5-7 years before Putin invaded Ukraine and used de-Nazification as his excuse. LOL

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

Vlad doesn't really say Nazi all that often lol. During the 4 hour Oliver Stone interview, Oliver Stone mentioned Nazis 4 times, but every single time, Putin did not say the N word. It seems to be more of a speech word for Putin than an interview word. I did find one interview where Putin said the N word, just not sure this is worth paying 70 cents for lol

What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?

Who is this guy talking to? LOL

Democratic Nominee 2024

Anyone seen Weekend at Bernie's? That's what they're doing with Biden right now. He's been dead for at least 3 months.

VibesGreaterRules

Obama shares are worth at least 8 cents, even though she isn't running.

How many reposts will MrBeast's $250k giveaway get?

← This dude is correct. The rules couldn't be more clear about it.

if the number displayed is 3.8 it will resolve to the top bracket, if its 3.9 or more it will resolve to the bottom bracket

Republican VP nominee?

Okay, I converted. Now what?

PSA: convert any of your NO shares BEFORE they add an “other” option

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

VibesGreaterRules

Emmys for Comedy Series

It's a little late, guys.