Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

Yup right here: https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary

1

reflexive

1 month ago

anyone have the link for the ballots from nyc?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

gg its under 1.5%

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

Yup in pretty much total agreement on all of that.

0

bibii

1 month ago

Looks like I was right on target. predicted 10k-20k max ballots remaining for Illinois, & predicted that Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas would probably yield 5k net gain for Trump altogether

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

Yeah a few sites were way behind on MA

0

Babybee

1 month ago

Anw guys there are like 5-600k vote left and if Trump got 4/5 of total votes, 1.75% is possible lol

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

so this is the logic from people still holding 1.5, if only it were that easy

0

muxmuvl

1 month ago

Almost all states are at 99%+ there is no way this will drop below 1.5 https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/?office=P

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

if you don't think there are groups trading on both sites then I think you might be throwing ignorance the wrong way

0

n/a

1 month ago

Just going to throw it out there that 1.5 is looking a little cooked here. While some of low IQ have said that one whale temporarily messed with the market, I don’t think that’s what is going on at all. The entire market has accepted reality.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

idk groups could be working together, all I'm saying is that on here it was just one person basically

0

n/a

1 month ago

This market and K8alshi shifted big at the same time. Perhaps some news about NYC?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

looks like just 1 person buying a bunch

0

n/a

1 month ago

This market and K8alshi shifted big at the same time. Perhaps some news about NYC?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

I think modeling anything outside of NY is a crapshoot

0

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

nope don't see it anywhere, I don't count on states adding stuff but that would be a nice bonus

0

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

just gotta know where to look

0

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

its not even speculation, that 98k and the registration numbers are both known

1

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

there are 98k mail in ballots left in NYC that number is pretty much known and those mail ins were from 71% democrats and 8% republicans with the other 21% likely also leaning heavy democrat. Those mail ins alone get us to 1.5%

2

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

there is way more than that lol People just bad at reading the info we have

0

Justifax

1 month ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

its an extra 10k net votes needed for every 600k total change. Not exactly nothing if this is close

1

Justifax

1 month ago

So it turns out Atlas SW versus Atlas basic makes a huge difference. Please ask Polymarket to clarify this or some folks could get heavily scammed here at the last second.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

1 month ago

"total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election." This would lead me to think adding write ins is feasible but I doubt it matters anyway

1

Justifax

1 month ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think the current pricing is pretty fair, cali hasn't been kind to Kamala in recent drops. NY is the wildcard

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

New drops from MA, still on track: https://i.postimg.cc/T2DPNX66/gap-over-time-estimates6.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup but they had a grammatical error on the final results so they pulled them down and the sites haven't picked up the final results yet which is why I know how much is left and the split

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

New drops from MA, still on track: https://i.postimg.cc/T2DPNX66/gap-over-time-estimates6.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Sure! Here is a tip, get a new card

9

Willslate

2 months ago

Hey, my card doesn't work for deposits so would greatly appreciate any tips!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

we will be getting another 40k from MA with similar margins as well

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

New drops from MA, still on track: https://i.postimg.cc/T2DPNX66/gap-over-time-estimates6.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We love Maryland

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I wouldn't expect anything more from illinois, it will just be a bonus

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We love Maryland

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

never dipped, haven't ever sold a share here

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We love Maryland

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yes and the 33k from MA isn't on the sites yet

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We love Maryland

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We love Maryland

6

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah definitely above most expectations

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

no clue lmao so strange

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

it came at like 1pm ET

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

final official results are already reported on there

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you've been helpful so I'll also throw you a tip, check MA SoS site

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

don't expect anything more from Illinois but they have been sprinkling votes out randomly so wouldn't shock me to see a few more trickle out

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

it isn't negligible because they are 95%+ Harris so 4k in DC is equivalent to finding an extra 30k in Cali

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

that tiny anecdotal evidence caused you to flip your position? lmao. How about the also useless article about them running out of ballots in Boston because of such high turnout

0

Justifax

2 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just compare their current turnout numbers to everywhere around them that is comparable. Boston for example showing 84% turnout when everywhere else is 91%+ and Boston has never had turnout anywhere close to that level and they haven't reported anything since the 6th. For NY, the exact number isn't clear but we can ballpark it based on election day turnout and mail in reports

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

amazing info, thanks!

0

Justifax

2 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

If they surpass 2016 turnout which every fully reported comparable place nearby has surpassed then it will be 200k more

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are already at 1.59% with Cali, NY and MA still having significant votes left and then some maryland/dc/Illinois surprises could be sprinkled in

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

hmm decision desk itself is at 1.592%

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Someone want to double check this, take the max(ap,ddhq,atlas) for each state. Atlas provides a table view. Tell me what you see

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Check out boston's current numbers vs 2016/2020

1

Mega

2 months ago

What are you guys thinking for MA

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

They will have around there

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yup MA was the big realization for me as well

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Feeling better about under 1.5% than I was a few days ago. The votes needed should be there if all goes to plan

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think they are pretty equal. AP is missing about 200k votes in Virginia from weeks ago but other than that they are pretty similar

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I'll just make a PSA: Economist is double counting Nebraska and Maine so if you are using that source to make any decisions on here be careful. They "appear" to be the furthest ahead because of the double counting making them show the most votes but they actually just use DDHQ as their source and then accidentally double count those two states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I'll just make a PSA: Economist is double counting Nebraska and Maine so if you are using that source to make any decisions on here be careful. They "appear" to be the furthest ahead because of the double counting making them show the most votes but they actually just use DDHQ as their source and then accidentally double count those two states

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just make sure you are looking at the right data, economist has a double counting error on some states

1

Babybee

2 months ago

There are still 900k left everyone... don't give up on a slim but rewarding chance of 1.75%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Feeling better about under 1.5% than I was a few days ago. The votes needed should be there if all goes to plan

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

No problem, things can get heated in these markets

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

DC still dropping votes with 98% Harris and 1% Trump lmao

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

around 5k

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

DC still dropping votes with 98% Harris and 1% Trump lmao

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

DC still dropping votes with 98% Harris and 1% Trump lmao

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah I honestly thought it was like 80-20 in favor of under 1.5 back when I was buying so it was a no brainer for me but I think it is closer to a toss up now

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the market movement has nothing to do with Cali, its been a quiet day or 2 so people are getting nervous that there might not be other votes out there. I saw this coming but too big of a position to swing. This is pretty much a toss up right now

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup thats fair

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the market movement has nothing to do with Cali, its been a quiet day or 2 so people are getting nervous that there might not be other votes out there. I saw this coming but too big of a position to swing. This is pretty much a toss up right now

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

none of those are done lol

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the market movement has nothing to do with Cali, its been a quiet day or 2 so people are getting nervous that there might not be other votes out there. I saw this coming but too big of a position to swing. This is pretty much a toss up right now

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the market movement has nothing to do with Cali, its been a quiet day or 2 so people are getting nervous that there might not be other votes out there. I saw this coming but too big of a position to swing. This is pretty much a toss up right now

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

right the 1.69 number is from the source that is double counting states. The 1.62 is from a source that is just ahead of others in reporting

2

Andy0091

2 months ago

We only need about .05 movement to put as back closer to 1.75, the discrepencies in all the reporting right now is them trying to cheat some Dems into the congressional seats. They need to inflate Dems numbers to get recounts, also

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah but you said it needs .05 movement to get to 1.75 and we are at 1.62% right now lol

1

Andy0091

2 months ago

We only need about .05 movement to put as back closer to 1.75, the discrepencies in all the reporting right now is them trying to cheat some Dems into the congressional seats. They need to inflate Dems numbers to get recounts, also

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you are still using faulty numbers lol You are double counting Nebraska and Maine, great site though!

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

We only need about .05 movement to put as back closer to 1.75, the discrepencies in all the reporting right now is them trying to cheat some Dems into the congressional seats. They need to inflate Dems numbers to get recounts, also

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

acting like a dick to everyone and then asking for help lol

4

n/a

2 months ago

Anyone who feels that they have a reliable source of information, what’s the range of votes remaining in NYC?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

eah figured San Diego was what you were looking at. Came in +11, other counties came in with +5 shift towards Kamala and some right on county lines. So hard to say for sure

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

hmm I don't see it showing tapped out, shows 50k more on my end

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Interesting that AP api is reporting MD as tapped out. SoS page still saying partial reporting. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html Web page seems very out of date https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/maryland/?r=0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

sent

0

Astera

2 months ago

Now for the slow grind that will test out the resolve of some to hold onto their positions and to second guess their calculations, but history shows that this is to be expected in that we’ll only be dripped vote counts for some time yet. I’ve been using the pullback as opportunities to top up my position as see it as great value even at this price.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Would need to get it from fax man lol

0

Astera

2 months ago

Now for the slow grind that will test out the resolve of some to hold onto their positions and to second guess their calculations, but history shows that this is to be expected in that we’ll only be dripped vote counts for some time yet. I’ve been using the pullback as opportunities to top up my position as see it as great value even at this price.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

NY in 2016 alone added 600k between November 27th and Final results

1

Astera

2 months ago

Now for the slow grind that will test out the resolve of some to hold onto their positions and to second guess their calculations, but history shows that this is to be expected in that we’ll only be dripped vote counts for some time yet. I’ve been using the pullback as opportunities to top up my position as see it as great value even at this price.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

That's great and all but it has nothing to actually do with this market. We have way too much info to try and base this on a "feeling" that he won't fall under 1.5%

8

Fortuna777

2 months ago

Personally, I think Trump is riding this red wave successfully enough to push his popular vote, even if it is usually the Republicans weakpoint. I remember a time where the people here defended a Republican 3-4 % popular votes margin. And even if this was grossly exaggerated I can’t believe he will fall under 1.5. He’s just too strong this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah you may be right

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Cook County reported having 30k outstanding on November 19th. I can't tell exactly tell how much their ballots cast has changed since then but I do know that the number hasn't changed since 11/20/2024 08:45 AM because I can use wayback to see its the same number

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Economist actually uses decision desk as its source so if you subtract out nebraska and maine they are the same stats

0

HjotolfFansen

2 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

plus and minuses to all of them, I mostly use decision desk and cook political. NYT is missing 200k in Virginia from weeks ago and Economist is double counting those two states. If you adjust those errors out though then the sources are fine

1

HjotolfFansen

2 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think we could see one more 50/50 convergence if we don't get too many votes today and tomorrow because weekend will be slow

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Still not possible even with that double counting but figured I would let you know

1

HjotolfFansen

2 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just a heads up, those aren't correct numbers. Guessing you are using economist which is accidentally double counting Nebraska and Maine

3

HjotolfFansen

2 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

He has no logic behind it lol

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to 1.61%, if vote pace keeps up we could be resolved here by end of the week

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

here is a hint: time is not shown at all on that chart

2

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

oh wait nevermind I don't think you correctly interpretted that picture either lmao

1

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I should've realized you can only interpret pictures instead of actual data, my fault

1

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

So that first group will get to 155.3 and the second group to 155.7, somewhere in that ballpark

2

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I am thinking it gets there without write ins but maybe falls a little short like 155.3 or so

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

AP/DDHQ don't include write ins, if you eliminate write ins from all sources these lines would practically overlap each other

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just to add some context here on why there is a pretty consistent shift between some sources. Atlas and Cook seem to include write ins which is why there number is shifted to the right

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

im not using whatever source works best lol I literally am just using whatever one has the most votes counted and check to make sure there is no double counting. There could end up being corrections made but they very rarely just make up numbers out of thin air

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think you are missing the point, all of these will show the same results when it is all said and done, decision desk is just ahead by a lot so we are using it to get the info quicker

3

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yup

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to just 165,535 more needed for 1.5%!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup you are right and the results are official also, great catch!

2

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to just 165,535 more needed for 1.5%!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

oooo that would be huge, wasn't able to nail down the county

0

Captain37

2 months ago

According to Decesion desk Trump now leads by 2,498,035. Once it hits 2,330,000 it will be below 1.5%.. Almost there!!! Earlier today at 12:15pm according to cook political we were at a 2,540,298 difference!!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Its rare that numbers are just made up, you basically just need to look for blatent double counting issues like economist has but other than that the numbers had to come from somewhere. I think you can cross compare if you are careful but I do agree 1 source is better to use. Decision desk seems to be the most consistently further ahead

0

n/a

2 months ago

This vote count margin is literally unchanged for the entire night so far.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I just think maybe your source is super far behind, just use decision desk and join the fun with the rest of us

0

n/a

2 months ago

This vote count margin is literally unchanged for the entire night so far.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to just 165,535 more needed for 1.5%!

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

your data is pretty far off just fyi

0

n/a

2 months ago

This vote count margin is literally unchanged for the entire night so far.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

If we get enough drops tonight we could get under 1.6%

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

welcome to poly

7

Lazertuiyope

2 months ago

Why did people panick. Great chance I'm right no ?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Ohio mostly and its very blue

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup that is number I am using

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I am using DDHQ because they are the furthest ahead, currently at 2,513,281 spread

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I use whichever is further ahead but lean towards DDHQ

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

7

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Another huge 30k dem drop from Illinois lol They just keep on counting

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah I kind of use them all, Cook is missing the strong D votes from Ohio, they are behind by about 35k for Kamala and 25k for Trump

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Some nice drops for Kamala in the early hours, love to see it

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

all over, Illinois specifically just keeps putting out massive blue votes. Ohio was red in the rurals but also strong 30k blue drop to counteract it

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Some nice drops for Kamala in the early hours, love to see it

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Some nice drops for Kamala in the early hours, love to see it

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

oh nevermind big Kamala drop in Ohio a few minutes ago

0

n/a

2 months ago

Here it goes. It won’t be much flip, but hopefully it’s enough to balance positions for cheap.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Ohio is coming in pretty Red but its all of the red counties reporting first and this is already accounted for on sites like Cook

0

n/a

2 months ago

Here it goes. It won’t be much flip, but hopefully it’s enough to balance positions for cheap.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

its less than or greater than symbols

0

n/a

2 months ago

Here it goes. It won’t be much flip, but hopefully it’s enough to balance positions for cheap.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah but aside from 3 or 4 states, a lot of it feels like guess work. I can pretty confidently tell you were a million of those are coming from. The other 900k not so much, doesn't mean they won't come it just would be nice to have data backing it up

0

n/a

2 months ago

I just counted 1,887,500 votes from MSNBC’s estimated remaining. Is anybody getting something different? Also note that several hundred thousand of these are from the midwest.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Will be more than that, NYC is notorious for under reporting. I bet we see closer to 200k

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

My biggest question for margin is NYC remaining votes. In 2016 they had 2,741,420 and 2020 it was 3,047,263. They currently have 2,582,175. They have been really pushing mail in voting since 2016 so I would think it can probably at least match that turnout

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

My biggest question for margin is NYC remaining votes. In 2016 they had 2,741,420 and 2020 it was 3,047,263. They currently have 2,582,175. They have been really pushing mail in voting since 2016 so I would think it can probably at least match that turnout

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

my biggest concern is I have no idea if that many are really left.

1

n/a

2 months ago

I just counted 1,887,500 votes from MSNBC’s estimated remaining. Is anybody getting something different? Also note that several hundred thousand of these are from the midwest.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Also don't forget to account for 3rd parties. She needs around +12 if that many votes are left so 55% 43% 2% would do it.

1

n/a

2 months ago

I just counted 1,887,500 votes from MSNBC’s estimated remaining. Is anybody getting something different? Also note that several hundred thousand of these are from the midwest.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

1,988,000 from AP, the red counties are almost all completely done so even anything left in red states won't be strong towards Trump. 1.5% still in great shape to me but I agree it's not a lock

1

n/a

2 months ago

I just counted 1,887,500 votes from MSNBC’s estimated remaining. Is anybody getting something different? Also note that several hundred thousand of these are from the midwest.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Alright you've tempted me, link?

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Anyone know where Cook Political is getting their Ohio numbers from? They are like 25k ahead of everywhere else and numbers are pretty strong towards Trump (17k towards Trump and 8k towards Kamala)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

With the county level how are you estimating the remaining results from each county? Including a shift or just basing it off current vote shares?

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah +12 wasn't ideal but it was all the reddest parts of West Coast. Barely any cities reported. Still looking good to me but agree edge isn't that much at these prices

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Anyone know where Cook Political is getting their Ohio numbers from? They are like 25k ahead of everywhere else and numbers are pretty strong towards Trump (17k towards Trump and 8k towards Kamala)

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

9% shift? Not at all lol

1

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

atlas definitely doesn't have the same amount of votes. The one thing that might be missing is atlas includes write ins and a lot of other sources don't

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Could someone explain to me why Atlas & decision desk numbers differ like that? https://postimg.cc/YGCHSRMm

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

+4 shift from county % is more than enough to hit 1.5%

0

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Your source is way behind. The spread is currently 2,545,300 and closing in on just 200k more net votes needed for 1.5%

1

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah it says a bunch are supposed to report again today between 5-6pm so we'll see if they come through

0

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

cities come in later, that was actually the redder counties

0

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Looked like 24k-14k in favor of Kamala unless that was another new drop

0

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

We are at 1.66% now

1

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

it did change though lol

1

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I wonder how many people realize that decision desk is actually 300k votes ahead of atlas and already down to 1.66%

2

n/a

2 months ago

These positions will likely split 50/50 before the night is over.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just saw state feature, very nice!

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

if you want to manually adjust the economist numbers it looks to me like they are just double counting nebraska and maine. So Trump is overstated by 935,203 and Kamala by 796,523

1

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

super cool, I recommend moving away from economist. They are double counting stuff and have numbers that are way off

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

is it able to tell what state the vote dump comes from? That would be clutch

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah economist is a mess, they are double counting some stuff

1

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah thats neat, just strange that it is increasing these random arbitrary numbers

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

it would be more useful then if it just showed current totals changing over time instead of these random estimates

1

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

lol where in the world is this getting its estimates from

3

Andy0091

2 months ago

https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

A bit more than that if you include cured ballots but yeah estimates have it higher than what is confirmed so far so will have to see

0

Joe44

2 months ago

West Coast states alone are enough to break 1.5%. There are still many votes to be counted in other states too.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

They actually are in the right scenario, there is pretty close to 1 million ballots left on west coast. She needs to net around 230k more votes for 1.5%. So it would take +23 to close that gap with just the west cost. I don't think it happens but it is possible

2

Joe44

2 months ago

West Coast states alone are enough to break 1.5%. There are still many votes to be counted in other states too.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

People are trying to escape reality, we know the spread of the votes coming in and they have been even bluer than what was needed for 1.5% to hit. The only real issue causing movement is how slow the votes are coming out which leads to fear that there isn't enough out there

8

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

decision desk seems to be a bit further along, not sure where they get their data from that others aren't getting yet

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

gathering the data from AP and Atlas, I get the most up-to-date results: votes: 153,564,509 +1.699%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

it sounds like you are a trader which is cool but a lot of us just care about being in the right bracket

2

n/a

2 months ago

Maliknabers, I’m guessing that you failed to see the convergence coming again. 70/30 to 60/40 has to hurt a bit.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I want whatever you are smoking

7

Andy0091

2 months ago

I've ran this scenario dozens of times, 1.75-2 is highly undervalued. I would expect it to be about 50/50 within the next few days, my estimates are 1.70-1.79. By the time we have recounts & all the other BS 1.75 is very possible.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

About 30k or so

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Hmm, wasn't there a 4,800 drop just now +52 for Harris from IL? Just asking.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you realize +52 means she got 52% higher than Trump in that batch so basically like 71-19. Small batch though for sure

2

Justifax

2 months ago

Hmm, wasn't there a 4,800 drop just now +52 for Harris from IL? Just asking.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

low key think there is a world where Kamala gets to 75 million before Trump gets to 77 million

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Hmm, wasn't there a 4,800 drop just now +52 for Harris from IL? Just asking.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Did you see it was from IL? Florida's 4k or so ballots that hadn't updated on sites yet was about that much and around that margin

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Hmm, wasn't there a 4,800 drop just now +52 for Harris from IL? Just asking.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

still think there could be some good pricing for flips, as votes dry up people will get nervous

1

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Also just noticed that Virginia is really off for some reason on AP. I made my own model based off your code. Super useful so I appreciate that. Basically added a feature so that it shows each state current vs expected. Not the cleanest but you can check it out here: https://pastecode.io/s/fi1ayqpc

1

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

re-run your model when you get a chance, Florida estimates just updated based on certification

1

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

The more important part is that Florida is done counting, a lot of sites also just updated. If people re run their models now they will see the margin expectation go down even further

1

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

It is all provisionals and absentees and mostly from the cities so yes it will favor Kamala quite a bit

3

SOMON

2 months ago

Do you have any information on the remaining votes in Ohio? It's the only red state left and there are about 200k remaining votes. If it's all mail-in voters, that should favor Harris because, for example, in Georgia, mail-in voters were 65%-35%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

They did, they went 75-25 towards Kamala but it was only around 4k overseas votes. Florida is finished counting and will certify today

1

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

They are essentially certified already, they dropped like 4k ballots which went 75% towards Kamala and are now done

0

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah Florida is essentially certified, only problem is that the 90k were projected to break towards Trump by about 20k and instead the final 5k that came out netting Kamala 2k so you are likely to see a 26k swing in your estimated margin towards Kamala

0

n/a

2 months ago

I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah it is unlikely to really move much at all only 5k or so votes left in Alaska so Florida looks very safe to me over there

1

Flaner

2 months ago

How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

military will probably be close to 50/50 but rest of overseas will lean Harris a lot. Florida is going to certify today and there is a lot less left to report then most people think. So I don't see it moving too much more

0

Flaner

2 months ago

How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

numbers I am currently using is 155.5 million as total votes so 2,332,500 is the final spread she needs. Current spread depends on your source. For Decision desk it is 2,577,069 which means she needs to close 244,569 more

0

Flaner

2 months ago

How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

then you can subtract the current spread with the new one

0

Flaner

2 months ago

How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah, it depends a bit on the total votes expected. If you expect 155.5 million for example then you just gotta do 155.5 million * 0.015 to see the amount she needs to be within

1

Flaner

2 months ago

How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Flaner has been very open and honest with their position and reasoning

1

Justifax

2 months ago

More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

hes talking about this market https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election?tid=1731856154069

0

gekko888

2 months ago

My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah, no clue how people see more votes and it not getting under 1.5

0

gekko888

2 months ago

My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

if you have turnout projected at 155.06M you can get a much better return in the turnout market because if it is that close under 155 will surely go up a lot.

1

gekko888

2 months ago

My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

General consensus even in both groups is that there are around 2 million votes left. If that is the case then Kamala only needs to go +12 the rest of the way. Idk what is going on with some peoples models but that is very likely to happen

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

No they didn't, 23 cents is actually really reasonable which is why you aren't in bad shape. You still haven't explained where any of these remaining votes come in that aren't going to be good for Kamala. She only has to close a 240k gap

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah its insane and it is almost always the cities because they have so many votes come in such a small area that they lose track of it

0

Flaner

2 months ago

I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

and that is drifting with only 300k or so votes added, what happens when another million plus come in

0

Flaner

2 months ago

I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

no that is what you guys are doing, I have been tracking your own model and it is drifting towards 1.5% the more votes that come in

3

Flaner

2 months ago

I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

not a single person here was thinking harris would get 30% margins. I think you messed up your math somewhere and if you correct it she will be safely under 1.5%. If votes are outstanding where you say they are this isn't even going to be close

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Not sure where the last drop came from but damn that was blue. 13k for Kamala and 3k for Trump

5

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Congrats to the traders, figured with slow moving votes this might flip a bit.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

off topic but do you know why decision desk seems to be well ahead of other sites on vote counting? They are like 300k higher than atlas

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Kam needs about a net change of ~270K votes to get to 1.5 If there 2M more votes, she needs about a +13 or +14 margin.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah I don't really look to trade but I can see trades working out here even on losing brackets

0

reflexive

2 months ago

Most of the remaining votes are outside of California and less opaque. It is plausible that as counting continues, this market becomes less clear.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

wild to me that people think there will be 155.5+ million votes and also that it will stay above 1.5%. Its virtually impossible lol

5

Justifax

2 months ago

Kam needs about a net change of ~270K votes to get to 1.5 If there 2M more votes, she needs about a +13 or +14 margin.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think the panic scenario is plausible though when just looking for a flip

0

Flaner

2 months ago

If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you are really messing up your math somewhere lol 18-20% for Harris will be perfectly fine for 1.5%

3

Flaner

2 months ago

If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

if by redder than expected you mean redder than the +22 from the past week sure. But it didn't need to be nearly that high anyway

0

Flaner

2 months ago

If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

he said 1.34 a few days before that

3

Emm8002022

2 months ago

lol what a joke, its already 1.7 on AP and people somehow believe this will remain above 1.5 in the next 2mil vote

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you realize 1.5-1.75 was at 85 cents a few days ago right? You are a week late on your analysis

2

Mega

2 months ago

So what's happening is a bunch of people are looking at the marginal return margin of California, then extrapolating them for the remaining 800k CA votes. But I have bad news for you. Look at NYT, look at unprocessed ballot report. All of the biggest and bluest counties are almost done counting. LA, San Diego, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco are what prevents CA from being a literal swing state. And they are all 97-99% done counting. Just look at the ballot reports. So people are using the last week or two of CA margin rates, but those rates are disproportionately from those counties I listed. In fact, we are now going to see the opposite, rates that are significantly worse than she even won CA by. Truly hilarious. Those counties make up over half of the counted vote so far, yet they only make up 10-20% of remaining ballots.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

congrats on the 3rd party market, be careful going to big into this market. The California stuff isn't ground breaking and a lot of people have come through here with faulty models

3

Mega

2 months ago

So what's happening is a bunch of people are looking at the marginal return margin of California, then extrapolating them for the remaining 800k CA votes. But I have bad news for you. Look at NYT, look at unprocessed ballot report. All of the biggest and bluest counties are almost done counting. LA, San Diego, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco are what prevents CA from being a literal swing state. And they are all 97-99% done counting. Just look at the ballot reports. So people are using the last week or two of CA margin rates, but those rates are disproportionately from those counties I listed. In fact, we are now going to see the opposite, rates that are significantly worse than she even won CA by. Truly hilarious. Those counties make up over half of the counted vote so far, yet they only make up 10-20% of remaining ballots.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah that is way better margins than what is needed. Once we get another 500k+ votes everyone models will be showing under 1.5%

0

Crims

2 months ago

The latest ballot dump just came in, and the margin was about 66% for Harris vs 34% for Trump. The math still adds up for around 1.45.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

still a lot of factors to nail down the exact margin but yeah I expect it around that ballpark

1

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I honestly don't care about the price right now if anything I would love for it to go lower again because I had another thousand ready to buy. The only realistic way that under 1.5% doesn't hit is if there are a lot less votes than estimated

0

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

sure but the last votes always come in from cities even in red states so everything is going to be dem leaning that is left

0

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

right around +11.5 which is basically guaranteed

0

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just used wayback machine to see total votes on November 10th compared to now

1

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Kamala was +22 vs Trump in all ballots counted since last Sunday. If there are only 2 million ballots left she needs to go +16 (this number gets lower the more that are left)

0

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

that dude is off the rocker

1

Justifax

2 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858495430008377426 Est 850k votes to count? Honest question: any clue what he's talking about?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I think you are going to find the issue with the code is that the number is going to keep going down as more votes come in that are further shifted than you predicted. By mid next week it likely ends up under 1.5 on its own

4

Flaner

2 months ago

Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

One more question, assuming you have been using this for a week or longer. What was the projection a week ago compared to the current 1.5724 one?

0

Flaner

2 months ago

Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah when holding a lot of shares you sometimes have no choice but to just have conviction and hope it works out, gl

2

Flaner

2 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah this is cool but I think using current county margins instead of mail ins or last 7 day results is a pretty major flaw

5

Flaner

2 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

definitely can lead to issues, the late mail generally skews quite a bit stronger towards D compared to the county margins

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

matching the proportion meaning you just extrapolated the remaining vote based on current county margins or based on mail ins?

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I will clarify this is not a 100% slam dunk bet. But under 1.5% should be the strong favorite imo

2

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Even red states tend to go a little bluer on certification because the votes that are counted late tend to be from cities even in red states

2

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah it blocked me a bunch as well

0

Flaner

2 months ago

I don't know if I'm absurdly overconfident, if you are absurdly overconfident, or what data am I missing. I might finally become financially ruined?!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

yeah I know that was a popular view point. I bought more and just figured I would keep buying if it got lower lol

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Kind of crazy that a day when basically no votes come in is when people realize the mispricing

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

im totally open to go back and fourth on viewpoints. The main viewpoint for under 1.5% is that there are around 2 million or more votes left to count (check turnout market) and she only needs to win them by 56% or so which she has far surpassed on votes that came in the past week

6

Flaner

2 months ago

I don't know if I'm absurdly overconfident, if you are absurdly overconfident, or what data am I missing. I might finally become financially ruined?!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Kind of crazy that a day when basically no votes come in is when people realize the mispricing

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

you aren't wrong, its virtually impossible for over to hit there and it not end up under 1.5%. This should actually be above the over 155 price there imo

1

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Interesting, looks like the under 1.5 yes holders and 1.5-1.75 no holders dont want to sell. Hm. Im sure they are just busy today.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

keep in mind he is an awesome poller but that doesn't really mean he is great at analyzing all this remaining voter data

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

The fact he said 1.3 instead of 1.4 is pretty telling that he still thinks the 1.3's are possible. He hasn't answered any posts about his original prediction

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

You aren't wrong but you are one of them lol You spent days trying to figure out if Rabs was a campaign insider. Just trust your research

2

Justifax

2 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I agree but you gotta admit you are crazy indecisive. Your info has been helping me though so I appreciate it. You just gotta try and stay out of your own way lol

1

Justifax

2 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

im pretty sure it is like a college class that is running it lol

0

Justifax

2 months ago

It's possible the ufl dude is roughly trying to project, but seriously, he can't be bothered to take 2 minutes to correct nj and il for undercounting. It's obvious it's not a priority or focus for him. When mistakes are this low hanging, you know it's not a real effort.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

just saying its crazy to call someone out for not holding when you are holding $3 worth

0

Captain37

2 months ago

According to decision desk between 11:30am and 7:30pm 62,217 votes came in. 44,945 went to Harris, that's 72.5% of the votes. I'm guessing 1.5-2million votes will come by next weekend. This will drop it below 1.5%. The current difference is 2,658,342 votes. when it drops below 2,300,000 votes that will be the 1.5%.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the guy with the most shares on under 155 basically said he likes the ufl projection of 155.8 million but that is ballots cast not votes for president so assuming .8% don't vote for president its 154.6 million, seems like faulty logic to me

0

BrandonThought

2 months ago

can someone give me a reason for why it will be sub 155? I already see results putting it above that number?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I would be more interested to see the projection back in November 16th 2020

0

HLB

2 months ago

Just to be clear, in 2020 UFL overshot the presidential vote by 1.1mil ballots and that was still after undercounting Illinois and Michigan

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

bro you are holding a dead bracket

0

Captain37

2 months ago

According to decision desk between 11:30am and 7:30pm 62,217 votes came in. 44,945 went to Harris, that's 72.5% of the votes. I'm guessing 1.5-2million votes will come by next weekend. This will drop it below 1.5%. The current difference is 2,658,342 votes. when it drops below 2,300,000 votes that will be the 1.5%.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Using UFL Election data as any strong basis seems like a pretty big mistake. I just checked and on November 8th their projection was 152,967,700 for total ballots cast. Their project is now 155,800,00 for total ballots cast. Thats a pretty massive jump in projections. If that jumps 500k more then your whole investment thesis is kinda wiped out

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

appreciate you sharing your point of view on it

1

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

okay so this kind of confirms it is just about who can better interpret the publicly available info

1

Justifax

2 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah I saw the same number as you but if you compare it to 2020 it is currently around 360k less turnout so I think it is more likely than not that 300k is close to right. Based on turnout trends being around 2-3% down on average

0

Justifax

2 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/new-jersey-president-results So after cali, nep\edison says new jersey has 306K outstanding. Edison is pretty good, imho, but I can't figure out how they get this number.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

great logic

3

Pidor🐓

2 months ago

damn this dude is up 8k in a year of just 12 hrs/day SPAMMING the comments like a wild animal, brutal. anyway, it's very likely 1.5-1.75 now that alameda blew their load

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

a lot of times 100k+ ballots pop out close to certification, Virginia just did this

0

Neoss

2 months ago

If all the low hanging fruit ballots remaining get counted over the next days and you're still 400-500k away from 155M, what's the plan?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

The rabs dude also bought a ton of Trump by 1.75-2% a few days ago lol

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Trumpito, Rabs and Donor are in the lt 155 market. If they are right about this, they are probably right about that too. It might be a good hedge.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

they are just posting a tweet from the JMC dude, that was his update this morning. I agree its a little strange that an "expert" is missing a decent chunk of already reported results

2

New.Jeans

2 months ago

My model updated

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah I think if this hits over 155 million it is pretty much guaranteed that under 1.5% hits. No clue why people would pay 82 cents here when you can get the turnover market at 50/50

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah I don't know what the deal is with him, I think under 1.5% can probably hit even with only154.5 turnout though

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah not sure if it goes lower though because it is basically all the 1.75+ batch got moved to under 1.5 since that batch got eliminated. I should've known that was going to happen and bought more a bit lower but if it does dip again I will try and go bigger

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

passed you on the share count ;)

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Do we know if the "illegal" bucks county votes are currently included in the counts? And how much votes it was?

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

thats wild lol The chance of it being exactly 155 million is like 1 in a 10 million

1

peasant

2 months ago

Thank god 155-160 is inclusive of 155. At this point every vote matters

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

finally found someone buying those lol Was wondering what their logic was. The estimates have nothing to do with 2020 election. Estimates are based on reported remaining ballots from every state

1

Andy0091

2 months ago

1.75-2 and 2-2.25 massively undervalued. All the models are estimating the uncounted ballets based on the 2020 election. If you account for the amount of estimated ballots being removed as a possibility you get into the 1.72 range, if you account for the adjustments all the predictions have made over the past 5 days you get closer to the 1.8 side of it.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

is there an easy way to see this or are you just looking at the change in votes?

0

Betwick

2 months ago

Babe, wake up. New votes just dropped and Kam got over 60% of the last 465k

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yeah not sure what that is all about, very strange

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

It seems like pretty strong consensus on there being right around 155 million votes. So this market basically comes down to whether or not Kamala gets a 5%+ shift in the late votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

She's pretty much hit that number right on the head the last few days, it will be close

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

It seems like pretty strong consensus on there being right around 155 million votes. So this market basically comes down to whether or not Kamala gets a 5%+ shift in the late votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

My quick napkin math says Kamala needs to go +16.4 the rest o the way to get under 1.5% margin

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

It seems like pretty strong consensus on there being right around 155 million votes. So this market basically comes down to whether or not Kamala gets a 5%+ shift in the late votes

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

It seems like pretty strong consensus on there being right around 155 million votes. So this market basically comes down to whether or not Kamala gets a 5%+ shift in the late votes

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

can we get another updated one of these? Thanks!

0

mcpetrus

2 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

good stuff, appreciate this research. I am on board

0

Justifax

2 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

the "bad drop" was really a worst case scenario type drop so the numbers weren't bad at all for worst case

2

FUENTES

2 months ago

why pump ? good news ?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

home district*

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

That was Gallegos home county which is also the most democratic leaning part of Maricopa and it ended up at 55-45. That is basically the worst spread we are going to see the rest of the way. Definitely not over yet

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

That was Gallegos home county which is also the most democratic leaning part of Maricopa and it ended up at 55-45. That is basically the worst spread we are going to see the rest of the way. Definitely not over yet

1

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

and its also the most D leaning part of maricopa https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1855324462465400836

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

That batch came from gallego's home district lol

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

That batch came from gallego's home district lol

3

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

insane how many are overreacting to a 15k drop lol

2

FUENTES

2 months ago

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1855314768657014818 its over

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/election-dashboard/

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Another great result for Lake on that batch

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

following on X and then using this

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Another great result for Lake on that batch

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Another great result for Lake on that batch

5

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

that was super super conservative numbers too

3

Supeg

2 months ago

Kari only needs 53.5 in Maricopa, the remaining is election day and weekend drops

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Yup Lake is huge on election fraud so her voters are very likely to vote towards the end

1

JackBeTrader

2 months ago

That last Maricopa batch was very good for Kari, 57.4% vs my model 51.5% avg. Projection now has her winning by 4.6k. Ya'll sleeping on this this should be at least 25c right now. 1M ballots still outstanding and its largely election day drop offs.... who do you think got a mail in ballot and wanted to drop it off in person? Republicans that's who. Follow @JackBeTrader i'll post model updates with every chunk of drops

Arizona Senate Election Winner

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Lake +16 in Maricopa batch! That is unexpected

2

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

50 bps never really made sense. They only do that when everything is falling apart.

1

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Trump team is going to tell him its important to talk about the reserve angle so he will come back out to add that in

3

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

I like this angle, lets go with that

0

BidenSucks

4 months ago

The clarity here about "trump says" doesnt define which Trump family member says it

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

I want a refund

3

R13

4 months ago

What a scam he said in his promo video that he will ask about reserve and did not ask

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

I think I somehow picked the only one that isn't going to hit lol

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Never asked the reserve question, hmm

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

3 cryptos already lol

2

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Did he ever say comrade kamala?

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

here comes 10 borders

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

these markets are so tiny, I passed on a few of these because you can't even buy $1k without moving the market 50%

0

R13

4 months ago

All the last editions secret service , ak47, golf etc got done so quickly definitely insider trading

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

move on to crypto

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

I wanted to play ak 47 so bad lol I wussed out though

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

golf boom

0

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

speaking time is my biggest concern. I think he barely knows about crypto and is doing this pretty much as a favor. Wouldn't surprise me if he talks for 10 minutes or less

0

Mrmarket334

4 months ago

trump loves to repeat the same word, crypto/bitcoin to him are the same thing, as long as he has speaking time more than his sons, easy yes

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Since I got my fills I'll share some alpha. Behind the scenes of the preparation for the interview the interviewer talks about the topics he plans to start with (1 minute mark). He specifically says they will mention about bitcoin as a reserve currency. Still not a guarantee but at these prices worth a shot https://x.com/farokh/status/1835803754941366673

1

What will Trump say during X space?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

was just about to share this alpha since I got my fills

0

Mrmarket334

4 months ago

The interviewer literally posted a video and said he will be asking trump about his crypto stance + bitcoin reserve

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

sorry bud, you'll get it next time

0

BmoneyPoly

4 months ago

ur lame get a life stfu

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Here I made it even easier for you guys. Case closed. https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5131790/user-clip-maga

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

no one is going to throw away $750

1

dallab

4 months ago

Who will step up and file the dispute?

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

yes he is lol That is exactly the timestamp when he says it

0

itzy

4 months ago

he's not even talking during 29:55 lol

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Rewatch it. Go to 29:55 in the video here. He says "They want to make america great again. Its very simple make america great again" Plus the maga hat comment makes it 3 times. Case closed.https://www.c-span.org/video/?538053-1/simulcast-abc-news-presidential-debate

3

Who will win the debate according to polls?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Did anyone else feel the sexual tension during that debate?

3

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

saying he will get her a maga hat absolutely counts lol

2

Eis

4 months ago

Why are the people saying he said it three times sourcing the hat? The hat cant count, does anyone claim to have 3 MAGA's not including the hat?

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

don't forget the maga hat comment

1

dallab

4 months ago

If anyone believes he said it 3 times, propose a resolution with timestamps. MAGA/Make America Great Again was only said twice

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" and/or "make America great again" 3 or more times at any point during the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

please read the rules, MAGA no holders

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

A lot of people don't realize that make america great again also counts for MAGA, gotta read the rules

1

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

he said it 3 times lol He said MAGA, make america great again, make america great again

0

IloveGreenOlives

4 months ago

Got no shares for MAGA at 6.9 cents

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Anyone have the actual border count? It was actually really close to 15. 13 or 14 is my best guess

3

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Yeah when he says it he does it like 3 or 4 times in one sentence so its hard to track. Pretty confident it is at least 12 though

0

LUVROK

4 months ago

someone write here its 14 and another one 9 idk exactly

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Anyone know the actual border count? I got to 12 but lost track a bit

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Border yes on life support lol

1

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

supposedly its not even true though so I don't know if they want to give the media that firepower

1

JP1993

4 months ago

I think he says "Springfield" and/or "cat". Those not perpetually online probably don't know the story and I think it's one he wants out there.

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

they don't need to bring him up though, all he has to say is that they are putting tampons in boys bathrooms and its gg (not playing that market though)

2

jamesclove

4 months ago

They aren't going to bring up tampon tim

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

damn thats a big position lol My one concern for tampon is that he could easily talk about tampons in a boys bathroom as a hit on kamala far left policies

1

jamesclove

4 months ago

lesssssss gooooo

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

Hard to take anyone serious who says border NO is an easy bet. Is border yes a slam dunk? No but he can say it 10 times less than last debate and it cashes. I like those chances.

1

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

we don't need it to happen again, he can say it 10 less times and it still cashes lol

0

Mikey23ya

4 months ago

No way he is saying border 15 times

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

100%

1

ilovesolana

4 months ago

easy money here

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

you can buy USDC on coinbase and then transfer it to your polymarket wallet

1

Gavynhudson69

4 months ago

How in the how do you add money to your account to bet

What will Trump say at the debate?

PolyPredictor

4 months ago

thats an easy one, "I'm sure you know about it a lot better than me"

8

PhenomZ

4 months ago

I can't wait to see Trump's bumbling response when Kamala asks him to define "Marxism."

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

Wait they forgot about hong kong, china

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

That was fun, this turned into an epic market

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

France will not get tired, they have home crowd and a 12 woman rotation, if anything fatigue hurts USA more

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

they said they have a 12 person rotation lol They will be fine

0

Pxman1015

5 months ago

The game is close atm because France is playing so hard, if they’re not careful they will be tired and or fouled out

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

france in the lead!

2

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

Jordan Chiles must return bronze after scoring change, IOC says. Imagine if this was a gold

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

hoping France can get out to a quick start and everyone freaks out

0

diddy

5 months ago

Why do you still have USA NO shares, sell it asap, when match starts there will be no liquidation

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

I really don't think you know how to read odds lol

1

diddy

5 months ago