What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

rozi

17 hours ago

Tax you got to pay after you die ;)

0

Mr.Market

17 hours ago

whats death tax?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

17 hours ago

Damn, you're right!

0

BlueSky123

17 hours ago

Are you certain it's for the rally in Reading, and not Scranton? Scranton for me shows 8x and no Chinese, but Reading shows China 9x and Chinese 1x.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

17 hours ago

My software tells me 8x. And no Chinese. Hmmm.

0

BlueSky123

17 hours ago

China 9 actually, but yeah it didn't hit.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

17 hours ago

Nope :)

0

ItCantBeTrollBoy

17 hours ago

I have China 10x

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

17 hours ago

I have 8x for Reading.

0

BlueSky123

18 hours ago

That's for the Scranton one, it's actually 9x for the one in Reading, and 1 Chinese, but Chinese doesn't count.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

17 hours ago

Kamala x31, China x8, Border x11. Good night!

0

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

18 hours ago

China 8x

0

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

22 hours ago

I guess you see my point now even better? :)

1

Oooo466

1 day ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

rozi

23 hours ago

Damn, i missed the sale...

0

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

It did hit last rally, friend...

0

samuraimyth

1 day ago

No way he says border 30 times bruh it did not hit last rally

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Dude, you are on your way to lose all your bets.

2

BiggieSols

1 day ago

Where do these phrases come from? Who creates the market? Hi I'm new here.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

My mistake, he mentioned Helene once.

0

Oooo466

1 day ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Btw. I changed my mind on Green New Scam :)

1

rozi

1 day ago

Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Sure, he never named Helene, and simply referred to it as 'hurricane'. I think the odds are good that he will not name Milton either.

0

Oooo466

1 day ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Remarks and rallies don’t really differ in substance.

0

n/a

1 day ago

Butler he did not say anything it was all about the assassination that day Walker was he making remarks in a plant event was slated in that manner and mint bill was never rally you can check it was again him giving remarks in a small factory about manufacturing this is a proper rally.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Odsiecz Wiednia?;)

1

JanSobieski3

1 day ago

You are welcome :)

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

rozi

1 day ago

Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Already after the first vote, a few of us have been telling you that it's pretty much done already, but many of you did not want to listen. In addition to the strong logic of this going P1 after P4 was declared at first, we also had market rules (even if poorly formulated), which are more nuanced than the vibes you'll get from the news headlines or Wikipedia headlines, that you chose to rest your case on. There was another market for entry, which was created for the possibility of Israeli raids, but you treated this market as if it was about the entry. This market, however, was created for a possibility of an Israeli army invading Lebanon (think infantry and tanks, not a 3-hour overnight raids by small special ops teams). As per all the evidence, footage, geolocated imagery, and detailed reports - small numbers of tanks and infantry entered Lebanon first on Oct 2. That's why this market should've resolved No, and it did. Rather than complaining, I'd suggest taking a step back, and integrating possible learnings from this experience, especially around taking news headlines as a measure of what happened on the ground.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Oki 😉

1

n/a

3 days ago

just wait and see, how it will turnaround... ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

I wrote a few long comments a few days ago explaining why this would in all likelihood resolve to No, asking folks not to invest into Yes at crazy prices. Some suggested that i was trying to push the price of No up, while i mostly felt sorry for people losing money by not understanding the context and the governance here. Well, I've tried, and i was mostly ignored. I think I'll just stay silent next time.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Chad is a big country, but mostly a desert. Not that interesting, really. I wouldn't advise travelling.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

To prevent fraud. You see that your personal votes are added. If all votes were revealed at once, you wouldn't know if your votes were not centrally altered.

1

FamilyCapital

3 days ago

what is the logic behind of having delay on reveal of votes rsult. why not to do that at the same time?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Chad is the new real Batman.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

That's going to be... impossible? ;)

0

UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts

3 days ago

Can someone please link me a different website w/ twice the liquidity and beter odds?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

191 voters (some votes are pooled).

0

n/a

3 days ago

Dose yes stand a chance ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Unfortunately, the media headlines have been quite misleading.

0

rozi

3 days ago

For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

That he's cooked?

1

n/a

3 days ago

What did he mean by this?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

At least I don't go around offending everyone that doesn't agree with my perspective.

1

Greta-Tunafish

3 days ago

Rozi, worthless fraud, calls himself a statistician just because he knows what a median is, LOL. How about some real mathematics?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Please believe in what you want to believe and keep your hope - that's super cool - but do not necessarily bet money on it. Not at this point.

0

144

3 days ago

Some of us believe the truth will prevail despite early appearances

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

This is going strongly in the direction of No after 7% of votes and 17% voters revealed their votes, with 83% siding with No. And the Yes is still going strong on buying more shares. This is a fascinating case for a psychology paper.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Shayku, very smooth. Pumping Yes, switching to No at the beginning of the reveal phase.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

It does, but there was no military offensive until Wednesday, so it doesn't matter if the intent was there. Anyway, I prefer to measure the intent by the action, even if it preceds it.

0

n/a

3 days ago

I can't believe I have to say this, but intent precedes action.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

No shit, sherlock ;)

0

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

November closed days ago bruv

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

3 days ago

Voting is still on for 2.5h more.

0

FamilyCapital

4 days ago

BTW, is voting stage closed? we waiting for reveal, or they still decide our destiny?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

xD

0

n/a

5 days ago

Surely you wouldn’t be using a median because it’s more favorable than the mean which would be the preferred statistical methodology for “averages”, no?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

And one thing for sure, the median will change a lot once this market is resolved :D

0

rozi

5 days ago

Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

You are our median, car.

0

Car

5 days ago

Woah

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Actually, the word "invade" is even more relevant than "intent" here, given that the No crowd argues that raids are not enough to constitute an invasion. Also the word "sources" is also more important here than "intent," with that the primary sources from the rules say no invasion before the deadline.

0

shouldbealright

5 days ago

Imagine having $600k at stake on the semantics of the word "intended" lol. Love you, Chad, but jfc I'm nervous for you too

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Sure, but as per the market rules, we need both 1) the invasion and 2) the intent behind it. So, even if we were to assume the intent was there, the invasion did not commence, because raids are not enough, especially if they have been happening 70+ times since Oct 2023, as disclosed by the IDF.

0

denizz

5 days ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

I like you trolling this time :D

3

Car

5 days ago

Maybe next time, YES scammers!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Well, we have no evidence that that's what they wrote.

0

Greta-Tunafish

5 days ago

That is why they have submitted the complaints to the UN. On October 4, yes, but they say it started on September 30. So they obviously admit it

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

He Denizz. The thing is that they might've changed their mind in the meantime. What if due to the US pressure, let's say, they abandoded their invasion and stopped after the raids. In such a case, we wouldn't be able to say that there was an invasion. In other words, the raids themselves, even if preperatory for an invasion, cannot constitute an invasion. The market rules stipulate that an actual invasion to control territory must've commenced on Sep 30. It did not. We only had limited in-and-out raids within 500m of the border. Cheers, friend.

1

denizz

5 days ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Well, the Wikipedia you quote writes: "On 1 October, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon in a series of small scale raids intended to precede a broader ground invasion." Which satisfies the September Entry market but not September Invade market.

0

Greta-Tunafish

5 days ago

wikipedia. remember time zones

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Oct 3: Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.

0

rozi

5 days ago

Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.

0

Phrank

5 days ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Oct 1: It is not immediately clear where the 98th Division began operations in southern Lebanon (...) UNIFIL source told Western media that the Israeli forces have staged “sporadic raids” into Lebanon but have not “remained on Lebanese soil.“ (...) Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon.

0

Phrank

5 days ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Sep 30: It is unclear where or if the IDF has entered southern Lebanon in force at the time of writing.

0

Phrank

5 days ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Doglover: with pleasure! https://www.understandingwar.org/

0

Phrank

5 days ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Well, those time-stamped sources, including official announcement from the IDF, confirm "limited raids" on the night of Sep 30, that came in and left. First footage of invading troops entering Lebanon comes from Oct 2.

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

We've got dozens of time-stamped sources that say yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

The Institute for the Study of War is a good source for the Oct 2. Also, there's zero footage of invading troops from before Oct 2. You cannot really invade a country and have no one see it, or?

1

Greta-Tunafish

5 days ago

The invasion was on October 2 with 0 sources confirming this of course

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Because in September we had only in-and-out raids, and proper troops invaded only on Oct 2. That's why. As per information from the IDF, the United Nations, the United States, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.

1

Phrank

5 days ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

If it is, then what Chad has been doing is 4x worse.

0

PolyRig-Fried

5 days ago

therealbatman bought 151,771 No at 48.6¢ ($73,758) - is this a case of "i can distort reality with money"?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Don't say hop before you jump 😜

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

5 days ago

domer getting doomed and its glorious

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Well, i actually think that this voting is better than some random dude in an office deciding on his interpretation.

0

UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts

5 days ago

Remember friends whether you WIN (red shares) or LOSE (green shares). We can all agree on how terrible this process is

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

rozi

5 days ago

GG :)

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

You mean UMA, father?

0

DopeFrancis

5 days ago

No holders have turned from the face of God.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

Gambling addiction :)

1

Greta-Tunafish

5 days ago

If Chad tells his therapist that he lost all his money because he bet that Israel would invade Lebanon, will he be treated for gambling addiction or for a psychosis? Serious question

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

I am thinking the same. I should've predicted that Chad would want to dump more money into this pot. I'll be smarter next time ;)

0

n/a

5 days ago

Price keeps getting better and better, why did I buy earlier :/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

5 days ago

:D Good humor :)

0

PolyRig-Fried

5 days ago

Funny, a prediction market that is predicting the past. And the second final review. We need 2 new bets: can Polymarket predict the past and is a final review really a final review or can there be more than one final review?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

Hi friend :)

1

n/a

6 days ago

Great minds think alike

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

Chad keeps pumping into the abyss. I am not whether to cry or lough at this point.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

I mean he has a point though. If UMA votes appear to be inconsistent without new information, then how can one trust the Oracle?

1

RememberAmalek

6 days ago

This is a reductive and simplistic interpretation of what's going on here

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

Other than in-and-out raids, Israeli troops started entering for combat on Oct 2. Plenty of footage of that happening. No footage of anything else than raids from before. Here's your impossible answer.

1

Justifax

6 days ago

Fundamentally - if it didn't start on Sept30th, when the headlines said it did, when does it start? Answer that question without making up rules.

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

rozi

6 days ago

I like this one 😎🎈

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

I've explained in detail below, take a look at my comment some hours back.

0

TheGoober

1 week ago

What does early request mean in the UMA vote?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

I mean, in all likelihood the Too Early crowd will vote No. It is just extremely unlikely otherwise.

0

TheGoober

1 week ago

Current UMA vote: 80.14% Early Request, 0.11% No, 19.75% Yes. Doesn't Early Request mean this market will resolve No since this is the final review?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

Read my comments down below - I explained in detail :) Cheers.

0

securebet

6 days ago

what does it mean early request??

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

6 days ago

Well, this is so factually incorrect that it's even funny that someone wrote that :D

0

shouldbealright

6 days ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

rozi

6 days ago

Border x23, Million x14. I have no more cash, so I give you the numbers ;)

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

rozi

1 week ago

I bought at 25 then again at 73, and now I sold everything at 80. That's the break-even of risk/reward for me at this point.

0

informed

1 week ago

No voters? there is there is less than 48 hours left, up to the point of Israel response how do you think probability will change?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

rozi

1 week ago

How did I miss such a sale? Damn.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Yeah, that pretty much settles it :)

0

Dropper11

1 week ago

Not only did UMA vote P4 for this market, but they also voted P4 for the November market, which was proposed on October 1st. Given that vote, they still think that by that date there wasn't enough scale to call it an invasion, so this is extremely likely to be voted as NO.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I can't speak for Domer, but i was betting No because i thought the ground invasion would happen after September 30. I sold everything at a loss on September 29 because of the signals in the Israeli media that the invasion was beginning. Then i bought No again on October 1 when it became clear that these were only raids and that the actual invasion was still to happen.

0

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

Now that you've answered me and stopped ignoring me, tell me, you never thought Israel would invade on foot, did you? What a lucky coincidence for you, that the market is still going no. More luck than sense, or was there some help here?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I think we're pretty much talking to a void. I'm slowly giving up on trying to help people who are most likely throwing their money away 💰

0

🤺JustKen

1 week ago

(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

The final review timeline indicates by when the voters can reveal the votes they posted before, and therefore by when we will get a final decision on the current dispute. Given that the vast majority of votes have already been revealed, we know that the decision is P4 (too early). The voting began Oct 2, 00.01 UTC and finished Oct 2, 23:59 UTC, so basically the votes were committed yesterday. After this process is complete, we will be able to propose a resolution again, which will happen as soon as possible, so in 13h. The point here is that between the last voting window and now, we received no new substantial information that could change how token holders would vote. The vast majority voted on Oct 2 that they believed the market criteria were not met to justify Yes, hence the Too Early vote - you cannot vote No before the deadline of the market. So, my understanding is that it's safe to assume we will be seeing No in the next roundd of voting.

0

n/a

1 week ago

so the 'final review in 13 hours' timer doesnt symbolize the end of the final review but instead the beginning?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

DFK: Well, UMA has already voted yesterday and it's extremely unlikely that they would shift their vote, that's the point. And yes, I believe they care about voting "right," which I think they did. I am in the camp saying that the invasion started only on Wednesday, if at all, and before that we only had in and out raids, which do not meet the criteria of this market. Anyway, friend, good luck to you.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 week ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Abdenriel: Normally, sure, but actually, there's plenty of liquidity in this market, and I almost have no stake (relatively). I literally feel bad for people not understanding the governance here, and making decisions based off that.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 week ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

rozi

1 week ago

Because he will say it ;)

0

Vaas

1 week ago

Why is missile defence shield so high?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Yes, exactly, too early because it was proposed just before the official deadline, so in principle Israel could've still invaded before the deadline. So, for technical reasons, the token holders could only vote Too Early or Yes (or No, if they did not pay attention, which a few voters did).

0

n/a

1 week ago

so 'early request' means P4, too early to say and there will be another extention of the resolving period?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.

4

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 week ago

https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

https://vote.uma.xyz/

1

n/a

1 week ago

where can I see the votes?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I hope they are just a very rich person, and they're fine. Because betting more than 10% of your bankroll into such a disputable market would be pretty nuts.

1

jayminho

1 week ago

@chad are You Okay bró ??

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.

2

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

1 week ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

And they had to vote P4 rather than No, because the resolution was proposed before the deadline. That's the crux of the logistics here.

1

rozi

1 week ago

Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

1 week ago

Yeah, the invasion started on Wednesday. Someone proposed too early.

0

n/a

1 week ago

What happens if consensus is p-4 too early at time of proposal but there is consensus that the invasion has happened post-proposal? We’re talking a matter of hours difference. Curious how UMA resolves “too early” resolutions for markets that still have ample time such as this one?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

With Nikki, was that after the vote?

0

n/a

1 week ago

guess it's over unless polymarket steps in and clarifies

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Not at this stage.

0

n/a

1 week ago

well there's a possibility polymarket clarifies fwiw

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I'm starting to get more trust in there being reason in this system. Good.

1

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

rozi

1 week ago

Such different bets, my friend.

0

Eridpnc

1 week ago

Tampon Y is the new Tampon N

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

It looks like someone sold No, rather than anyone buying.

0

LyinCamela

1 week ago

Who bought?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

1 week ago

Why would anyone buy No in this market? Because Israel doesn't want to establish control - is that the argument? They are already controlling areas near Maroun Al Ras el for example. Just curious 🤔🙂

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

1 week ago

OK, OK doglover69.

0

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

1 week ago

He actually argued in favor of this market resolving to a Yes in the UMA dispute, although he holds 54k No shares. I doubt you would have a fraction of that integrity.

1

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

JustScam is a mangy shyster who has licked blood from the Venezuela market he rigged and now tries his scam on every market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

1 week ago

No man, this market is a Yes. September market is a No. Don't create conspiracy theories just to suit yourself.

1

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I'm just telling you what's going to happen in the UMA vote. If it's a Yes, it's a Yes, if it's Too Early, it will be No short after. You can keep your comentary about the events on the ground for another thread.

0

coinflip

1 week ago

What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Because that would mean that the voters felt that there was not enough evidence for Yes by the time of the resolution being proposed. Given that no more new information in favor of Yes came in that little time window between the resolution proposal and midnight of Sep 30, P4 means that in the next vote we will see a No. In other words, P4 is a formality that needs to be done before we get a No. To sum up, Yes is a Yes, and Too Early (P4) will be followed by a No.

1

coinflip

1 week ago

What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

It could be.

0

LyinCamela

1 week ago

(Reasonable Assumption - it's not a No limit buy order at 15c)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Only raids before, in and out, which doesn't meet the criteria. Today, however, they seem to have entered to (at least temporarily) control some Lebanese territory.

0

x3x3

1 week ago

Yes and the operation started before September 30 ET

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

In practice, it is.

0

x3x3

1 week ago

No and too early is not the same...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

We have first evidence of an Israeli invasion actually beginning - **two days after the deadline**. Today, Israeli troops entered one village (sic) - Maroun Al Ras.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Yes, unfortunately. That's why I'm not buying more of No.

1

LastChanceSaloon

1 week ago

Are we beholder to the intelligence/opinions of UMA voters? Is that what this will boil down to?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

A source from the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said the Israeli military has staged some “sporadic raids” across the Lebanon-Israel border but **its troops have not remained on Lebanese soil**. The assessment that Israel has not yet launched a full-scale invasion was supported by two other high-level Lebanese security sources. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

The Institute for the Studies of War: The IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has not yet engaged IDF units in Lebanon as of the time of writing. **Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-1-2024

2

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

rozi

1 week ago

The rig crowded confused Trump with his running mate.

1

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

rozi

1 week ago

Doesn't matter.

0

MasterMindful

1 week ago

I sold my fire cause i Thought He said it in the context of fire , like a fire in the theater , which is not fire of firing someone

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

rozi

1 week ago

It looks like you haven't.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Some of you have never listened to JD Vance and it shows

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

rozi

1 week ago

No, because they need to declare a war against Iran, not an internal state of war. Very different things.

3

n/a

1 week ago

Curious if the "state of war" Israel entered after Oct 7 would have resolved to Yes here. If not, I don't seem declaring war here if they didn't even officially do so after Hamas attacked them.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

The outcome depends on UMA, so what it is actually worth, or what the market believes it's worth doesn't matter.

0

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

buy more. if 10c is the fair price you should buy way more

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

It's actually Chad who moves the market single-handedly.

0

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

“JustKen” moves the markets single-handedly. If he bets on one side, many others follow, such as Car. In this respect, something has changed, everyone now trusts him to push it through.

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

rozi

1 week ago

The last time Israel declared war on another state? In 1948. Good luck to the Yes holders.

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

This market would trade 5-15 for a Yes if it wasn't for Chad. I'm not taking more risks here, but i do think it's a great opportunity for potential money from Mr Chad.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Just raids, which doesn't meet the criteria.

0

rozi

1 week ago

It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.

2

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

rozi

1 week ago

@GNS I can't speak about the others, but yes, I expect that, unless things escalate significantly. They benefit from staff on the ground for diplomatic and intel purposes.

0

Toma

1 week ago

easy bet

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

rozi

1 week ago

1) Makes no sense. 2) Could happen if esacalate a lot.

0

n/a

1 week ago

US embassy is only 10 miles from recent bombings near the airport. It can be inferred that Israel and the US will have some sort of agreement not to bomb near the embassy, but this may be voided as Hezbollah fighters clue into this and inevitably move bases closer to the north. I think there may be two outcomes here: 1.) The embassy is evacuated due to a heads up from Israel getting ready to bomb Hezbollah targets who have moved in nearby, and 2.) the embassy is evacuated due to public uprisings/protests by the Lebanese who are angry at Israel and their ally (US). If you remember last year, when Israel bombed the hospital in Gaza their were riots outside of the Beirut embassy. Imagine the riots now that it is their own country being bombed, not just Palestine.

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

rozi

1 week ago

Agreed :)

0

Toma

1 week ago

easy bet

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

And I mean, they were not entering Israel without the guns, or were they? ;) If you have a commando coming with guns, I mean, give me a break.

0

rozi

1 week ago

A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I divested from No due to the risk, so this is a fairly impartial opinion: If there had been any combat encounters, we probably would have seen footage from local Lebanese residents or Hezbollah trying to garner support and mobilize. Therefore, what likely happened were small reconnaissance scouting missions, which, to the best of my judgment, wouldn't meet the criteria. Good luck to all.

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

For disclosure, I had 3k of 'No' until 26h ago when the news of those raids came out. I don't like being in dispute territory, so I backed out from this bet. It's funny that we have a second wave of reaction to the same news, just delayed by a day.

0

rozi

1 week ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

I am just saying it is open for interpreation whether it meets the criteria. Perhaps when more details and/or footage emerges, we will know more.

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

They’ve been raiding Lebanon 🏴‍☠️

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

Btw. this is all news from 26h ago, just shared more widely. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-may-have-already-begun-small-raids-on-hezbollah-in-south-lebanon-reports/

1

rozi

1 week ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

rozi

1 week ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

1

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

rozi

1 week ago

Let's go!

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

1 week ago

I did 😅

0

n/a

1 week ago

My only regret is I didn't buy more...

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

1 week ago

7

0

n/a

1 week ago

8 border now

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

1 week ago

Border border border fun 😉

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

1 week ago

Yes, thank you. You shouldn't have.

0

PanosMariolis2001

1 week ago

nice donations

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

1 week ago

I have never bet straight No's on Trump. Let's see! Have fun everyone :)

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

rozi

1 week ago

It doesn't.

0

OddsMaker77

1 week ago

Does Missile Defense Shield count as Missile Shield?

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

The reason the reps are being asked about it is because Harris said in numerous places that she supports the billionaire minimum tax, which is the unrealized capital gain tax.

0

rozi

1 week ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

Just add this with Harris's own tweets on supporting the billionaire minimum tax, which is the same thing, and the case for No really falls apart - I really believe that, independently of my shares. I had No shares yesterday, but I read more into the topic, and changed my mind.

0

rozi

1 week ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

Only in combination with Harris tweeting that she supports the "billionaire minimum tax."

0

Betwick

1 week ago

If this is the best evidence for Yes you guys are in trouble

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

Here's another one: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831512664507314308 For me, this is explicit enough. They are clarifying what they're supporting. It's Harris's official Twitter account.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

1 week ago

Her official channel clarified that Harris's tax on unrealized capital gains would apply only to people with "with at least $100 million in wealth." https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1827073628162130283 So, let's go through this. 1. Harris says that she supports Biden's tax package, which includes a "billionaire minimum tax," which is administration's idea to tax unrealized capital gains of people with $100M in wealth. 2. Trump sees that and says that Harris idea to tax unrealized capital gains will kill small business owners. 3. Harris's official Twitter channel debunks Trump's statement by saying that the tax on unrealized capital gains "applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth." 4. Harris explicitly says that she supports a "billionaire minimum tax" in both her policy document and on Twitter. That makes her support even more explicit.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

2 weeks ago

If anyone wonders why 'No' is relatively cheap and 'Yes' relatively expensive, here's some context: https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1288919166262448249

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

2 weeks ago

He said it 60x on Aug 22 during a speech in Arizona on border security.

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

there's a part of me that truly believes that if we made a border 50+ bracket for a rally, Trump would still find a way to hit it

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

He says Reagan in almost all his rallies the last month.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

Why is reagan so high?

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Unfortunately, very unlikely.

0

gintas

2 weeks ago

hopefully this time i can hit something

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Stop manipulating.

3

Car

2 weeks ago

Congrats to haterzloserz

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Because it's likely he's going to say it.

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

Why is reagan so high?

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

What matters is what are the chances of him saying it. And those are at least 80%.

0

Sit

2 weeks ago

what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Nothing. And? :)

0

Sit

2 weeks ago

what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Trans is heavily underpriced. Here's free advice :) Good luck!

1

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

2 weeks ago

This market: Is 50Pence right, or everyone else?

0

rozi

2 weeks ago

50Pence, what makes you buy so much?

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

rozi

2 weeks ago

50Pence, what makes you buy so much?

2

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

I hear you. Yeah, better to count oneself ;) We both got our lessons, though yours is much tougher. It reminds me of me selling 3k shares of Beyonce's performing at the DNC for 0.03c, after media wrote that it was "confirmed" that she would perform. I learnt not to sell for pennies when there's still even a tiny chance.

0

BlueSky123

2 weeks ago

I listened to about half the speech, then did other shit. Didn't really count anything myself, just listening for single whole words. I blindly trusted the market price and what others were saying on discord. When Trump was walking away, millions no was over 95 cents iirc, so I figured it didn't hit. Turns out, there was some mass delusion going on, and Johannes was the only one who counted correctly. During the yes pump, I thought everyone was mistaken and sold a bunch of shit because I am a greedy idiot, and ended up losing 7k. Would've made a couple hundred tonight were it not for that. This was a lesson learned for me the hard way, I guess. I'm still up over 2k since joining here in August, but this really sucks. Thank you again Johannes for actually knowing how to count.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

And why wasn't I paying attention?

0

rozi

2 weeks ago

What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?

0

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

I checked now. After 17 minutes of the speech, we were already at 10x Million, and after 30 minutes, we were at 12x. Ended up at 14x. So, I was correct.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Maybe I made a mistake, I haven't checked yet, but I tried not to count billions :)

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

I stopped counting Million at 12x and that was 2/3 into the speech.

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

He said transgender, which counts. Transition doesn't count.

0

iLoseUSDC

2 weeks ago

Does "transition" count as trans?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

I'm pretty ready with my bets. Good luck to everyone :)

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

P&L or not, he's got a point ;)

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

would like to thank the crypto bros in advance❤️

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Yeah, agreed.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

We desperately need plain Comrade over/under market, instead of Comrade Kamala. Trump is trolling us

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Well, I am planning on making some by betting 'No' ;) I am already at 50% profit on my No on x15 - a bit more, and I sell. Otherwise, it's worth keeping for 0.05 a piece.

0

gpsmatty

2 weeks ago

bro betting no on the border is throwing money away

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

rozi

2 weeks ago

As if whether it's actually "too late" mattered?

4

n/a

2 weeks ago

Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Not all rallies and events served as markets on this platform. Anyway, why don't you bet if you believe in your data and analysis? ;)

0

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

if you guys check the old mention markets with function closed market on poly, Crypto/bitcoin have never hit but at the crypto conference

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Yes, it isn't right.

0

UMAisGarbage

2 weeks ago

This is very cool. But I feel like the stat of him never saying crypto once except for 75 times at the BTC conference isn't right

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

That's not correct, my friend.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

there's a higher chance of another assassination attempt than him not saying Border 15 times

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

x3 would be better

0

Arbiter-of-Truth

2 weeks ago

we need illegal immigrant 10+ times

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

I sold early at 0.81 because I was too nervous about it and decided to cash in a good profit ;) Congrats to you for keeping!

0

Woofofallstreet

2 weeks ago

borders boy, 50% odds nerve wrecking but odds paid off

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

No, probabilities do not work like that.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

2 weeks ago

This time crypto bros. Him never saying it only increases the chance for the next rally

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

rozi

2 weeks ago

There never really was, I'd say.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Much comradeship, such plan. But wow, no comrades. So lonely. Many disappoint, such betray.

3

Betwick

2 weeks ago

Comrades so back

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

2 weeks ago

And i made some investments 😉 Good luck!

2

Eridpnc

2 weeks ago

bought some lotto tickets

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

2 weeks ago

It's 2h, but it's likely not an interview-style event.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

2 weeks ago

😂 Don't give me nightmares 😉😉

0

bko

2 weeks ago

@rozi I think you're screwed.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

rozi

2 weeks ago

Do you think Nate Silver or Eli are betting here? ;)

0

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I am such a pessimist apparently. Only betting 'No' on everything ;)

2

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Well, there are 140 organizations "participating" apparently. I doubt she will be naming them. I don't know if she says 'Latina/s' but I personally would be surprised.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Agreed 👍

0

Randomchooser

3 weeks ago

these brackets are fit for her rallies, for a one-time event like this, we need new words like it was for Trump's x space

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

It seems that after 28x "border" by Trump yesterday, some folks went like, "Hey, Harris surely has to say it 3x at least!" Well, good luck on that one ;)

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I am actually not celebrating :) I don't know what will happen, and I might lose on this one. However, as an Eastern European proverb goes, "a big cloud produces little rain."

2

MisTKy

3 weeks ago

You're celebrating a little early

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

rozi

3 weeks ago

She hasn't used the word 'racist' in neither of her rallies, DNC speech, CNN interview, and the debate. Unlikely to happen here too.

2

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Thank you too. I have better return on my money elsewhere, so happy to sell to you :)

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Thanks. Summer is over in Delaware.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Nothing ever happens.

1

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Your statement is incorrect - maybe that's why? 🙂

4

Gregorius

3 weeks ago

he literally said "transgender" in every single rally, what would make him not say it this time?

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Why is it easy? 🙂

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Surprised not more people are buying no on “tampon” - easy money

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Don't say 'hop' before you jump.

0

Mr.Damon

3 weeks ago

who needs the spy when you have idiots to steal from

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Tomorrow is the day :)

0

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Nice 🙂 I've sent you a message on Discord 🙂

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

What if she says: "And Trump's VP candidate keeps on lying, and is surrounded by felons who got convicted!" ;)

1

xyz12Three

3 weeks ago

I deadass think she's going to say, "JD Vance is a Liar, and he is surrounded by convicted felons

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Now, during the last rally in Wilkes-Barre, people in the audience tried to force her to speak about Palestine by shouting stuff, and that's when she said 'ceasefire', which we now see here in this market. So, there's an odd chance that either the audience nudges her into saying 'Palestine' or that she changes her approach, but both are negligble in my judgement. Good luck and see you around :)

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Hey :) Nice to meet you too. I noticed us betting similarly too, so I thought of you as a kind of ally :) As for Palestine here, the thing is that she purposefully has been avoiding the topic, with the exception of the DNC speech and the debate, when she had to address it.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Trump say during New York rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Because of the attempt on his life that Secret Service saved him from.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why is secret service so expensive?

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Frankly, you're facing uphill on this one. She never says Convicted Felon. She even deliberately didn't say it at the debate, when she had a chance. If you want to have better chances and really need to make a buck on this, I'd suggest you sell and swap 🙂

0

xyz12Three

3 weeks ago

this is it, boys, i'm back after this one

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

If you sell your Palestine shares, you'll increase your chances of not sucking at it this time 😉

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Border x16. I just checked.

0

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Hi Mr. ⚰️, I see that you came to help me organize this market 😉

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Nate Silver 30 minutes ago: "But the headline is that the bold prediction I made after last week’s debate looks to be coming true: Kamala Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."

1

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Let's rather see what Harris says ;)

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Mrrrau

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

This lioness is ready and waiting..

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Why would I want to get out? 🙃 I'm going to sit on it until the rally, unless it goes to 0.95 or higher. Good luck to you 🍀

0

asshole

3 weeks ago

have read it😈

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Thanks for posting. That's from before she even became a candidate. And it's not from a rally. Anyway, "with no common sense"? Let's check back with each other after the rally. In the meantime, good luck! 🙃

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

What live button?

0

BlueSky123

3 weeks ago

Anyone else hate the live button on this site? What's even the point?

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

rozi

3 weeks ago

With such massive advantage in the national polls, it's a matter of days until we flip 🙃 She's gained 3.5pp just from yesterday to today and is now at 43.5pp chance of winning.

1

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I am $6k deep in this market, so I will say stop for now, but if anyone is interested in unsolicited good advice, buy 'No' for JD Vance for anything below 0.9. Good luck :)

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

A Tarrot reading? ;)

0

asshole

3 weeks ago

have read it😈

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Well, and in which speech did she mention JD Vance?

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Good luck 🤞

1

xyz12Three

3 weeks ago

this is it, boys, i'm back after this one

What will Trump say during New York rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Do not question THE ARBITER OF TRUTH.

4

n/a

3 weeks ago

He did in 3 of his last 4 rallies. The one he didn’t he said it 22 times

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

It looks like I'm the Lion, I mean, the Liar King ;)

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

There is zero arbitrage opportunity, b/c you cannot sell a share you bought here on another market.

2

n/a

3 weeks ago

Harris is favored on other big markets like Betfair. Pushing her down more here creates arb opportunities that boost her back up

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Not funny.

7

n/a

3 weeks ago

We need a market for a Springfield pogrom

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

It's pretty much done. I offer risk-free 1% bonds for sale. Any takers? 🙂

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Please stop trolling the poor folks 🙂 They already threw their money into the ocean, let them be.

4

BlueSky123

3 weeks ago

Yes holders, learn how to vote on vote.uma.xyz!

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

rozi

3 weeks ago

As of yesterday, 60% chance of winning for Trump, and 40% for Harris, awaiting more newer polls.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

What are the newest numbers please?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

GG. And, i think it's the time for a screenshot with a quote from the Mountain Man: https://ibb.co/vXgJ1hf

9

·

Liked by BlueSky123, coconutPil... and 7 others

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I mean, there was a word "signed" from the beginning. If you scroll down, even before the additional context, i wrote that this is either a clear 'No', or we will have a dispute

0

BBNFT

3 weeks ago

They lose credibility every time they have absurd situation like this. Adding a new burden after the fake but keeping the same deadline is beyond logic. No transaction IRL can work like that

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Come on man, let it be 😉 Don't lure people into losing even more than they did.

0

BlueSky123

3 weeks ago

Imagine if it comes out in the morning that it was legit LMAO

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I can 🙂 Yes, the clarification doesn't give a deadline. So, there's a "legal" window for you. The thing is, it's very unlikely that this window is going to be used by UMA. If the affidavit looked any legit, sure, we might wait to see the connection to the ABC showed. But, that's not the case. It looks completely forged, so in all likelihood, the interpretation will not focus on the "window" you mention.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

@CoffinFlop you're not engaging the argument either, struck a nerve?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I'm not sure, but i think you get the first 750 back. The second 750 you lose it the UMA vote is against you.

0

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

So let me get this straight. If I dispute this I have to pay $750? And then I hear I would have to dispute twice so then I would pay $750 again?

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

The main market: It's a toss-up! This market: Nahh, kids are just having a little fun.

3

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Agreed.

0

ItCantBeTrollBoy

3 weeks ago

@winner69 I can read fine. So how long do you think we should keep this open? Forever? Sorry, but UMA isn't going to allow a wild goose chase here. They'll most likely honor the end date. It's reasonable to expect that the fully authenticated affidavit needs to be released by the end date.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Oh, did i miss something? Happy to be corrected. What's the name of the person running the insurrection account, and who are they? 🙂

1

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

You keep stating anonymous account but that is just simply not true. But we both know that and you keep repeating lies.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

That's correct. But how do you know there is an affidavit at all? An anonymous account shared a document hiding the notary information. Why? Because any notary that was to be mentioned there, would say that such affidavit was never created 🙂

2

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

Do people realize that an affidavit is given under oath? If you lie you literally go to PRISON? All these Libs with their TDS want to pretend the Democrats aren't corrupt and they are giving their money away because of it. Sad, but I don't mind taking it hahaha

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

It's been there for 2 days. Just scroll the comments down - we were discussing it just after it was added two days ago 🙂

1

BBNFT

3 weeks ago

That "additional context" was just added now, not on Sep 13. I have a screenshot without today

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I took a screenshot and will repost it after the resolution 🙂

2

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

As soon as people get back to their computers tonight this price flies. If someone buys $1000 worth we 2x instantly. hahaha. no liquidity at all here. I can not wait until midnight :)..... $18,000 in a day for me? I think that's what you call a pretty good day.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Likewise 🙂 I guess for now we're both happy 😊😉 GL too!

1

BBNFT

3 weeks ago

betting 91% chance this is a hoax is wild to me!

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Betting 9% that it isn't is wild 😜

0

BBNFT

3 weeks ago

betting 91% chance this is a hoax is wild to me!

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-plans-visit-springfield-ohio-haitian-migrants-conspiracy-theory-rcna171190

4

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Hey man, let them be 🙂

0

BlueSky123

3 weeks ago

Yes holders don't want to talk about the fact that the "signature" is literally a DRAWING OF AN ERECT COCK, just look at it! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXiDqJaWEAAI5hV?format=jpg&name=small

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Yeah, i even feel bad for making money on good folks who don't understand what's happening here, and how to distinguish between fake news and credible information.

0

Justifax

3 weeks ago

Once again car scams and sells to greater fools. Ever wonder where his pnl comes from, it's scamming you idiots.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

With all the love to you guys buying 'Yes', please don't waste your money. Please read the additional context.

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Well, maybe the "big dogs" simply read the rules of the market with understanding? The additional context states that "The name must be either be public on the affidavit, or confirmed by credible sources to have relation to ABC." There's close to zero chance that this is happening. If this was credible in any way, it wouldn't be happening through anonymous Twitter accounts and fake news organization facing trials for misinformation and manipulation. It's an easy win for 'No' holders, rather than any manipulation.

0

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

This is what happens every time a market with heavy odds turns against the Big Dogs who buy shit like this at .98 cents. They are fucked now, and will manipulate the market as much as they can to unwind as much as possible, but this one is done guys. Free money for "YES". Read the affidavit, it's legit.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Did you read the rules and the additional context? 🙂

0

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

You can read the full thing here: https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1835347010527822267. Yet another feast thanks to your main man MOUNTAINMAN!

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Easy money. There's no way that any credible person shows that the affidavit actually comes from someone at the ABC.

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Sounds more like what aenews would do 😉

0

AugustoPinochet73

3 weeks ago

Also Car is a YES holder, he is the only one who could have playd the long game of pretending to be a MAGA supported, then convince PM to create this market just to make $3000

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

So if you were a whistleblower at ABC, you'd definitely want this Twitter guy to be your platform. Why to go to the New York Times, right? 😂😂

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Crimean bridge is much more defended.

0

nagual

3 weeks ago

well this is likely lost since rules mention wreckage/intercepted damage as not applying to yes condition while moscow being the most heavily air defended target in russia

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Exactly the same with me.

0

ItCantBeTrollBoy

3 weeks ago

I was going to slam No earlier until I read the ambiguous rules, but I believe that the clarification captures the most logical interpretation of the rules.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

It said signed, so i thought from the start that it was required. I bought in only now though, because of the earlier ambiguity.

0

Lucky31

3 weeks ago

says nothing about a name being required in the original market

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Take a look at my comment from yesterday below. For me, the word "signed" in the original rules already pointed to what the additional context now says. I do think that the original rules were not very clear, that's why i didn't buy in, even if the market felt like an obvious 'No' in my interpretation of the rules. I'm with Polymarket on this one, having a non-biased opinion of not holding any shares. Though, i might buy something now.

0

Lucky31

3 weeks ago

how can we dispute this market

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Wow, i hit everything 😎🤩

1

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Yeah, I've added some shares too :)

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

I'll go deep on this one, people being stupid here

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Got a full house, gg :) (with the exception of the $10 I threw out on 500 Abortion Ban at 0.02 just in case hehe.)

0

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Surprised?

0

MrNFT

3 weeks ago

These speeches are all carbon copies

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

rozi

3 weeks ago

What is he going to say if they ask him? "No, I would never go there."? ;)

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1834656889054822711

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I'll agree on one - the reproductive freedom. It might be worth 0.05-0.10. You still bought for 0.15 though ;)

0

Randomchooser

3 weeks ago

i was disappointed about her yesterday

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

You sure? How did you calculate them? :)

1

Randomchooser

3 weeks ago

i was disappointed about her yesterday

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

She doesn't seem to be attacking him that way much.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why are you bearish on Liar?

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Yeah, the "locks" are the opposite of what you're betting ;)

1

Randomchooser

3 weeks ago

I need a comeback here after my worst performance ever. Any locks guys?

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Border x5 is a funny one. She said "Border" 6x at the DNC and 3x at the debate three days ago. So, there's some chance, even if it's not her favorite topic.

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Did he say it at the debate? I looked and couldn't find it. Could you help me? :)

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

a nickname for george stephanopolous he said at the debate

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Anyways, the rules are too unclear for me to engage.

0

rozi

3 weeks ago

So, the guy says he's blacking out the signature for the protection of the whistleblower, meaning that the document, if realeased at all, will contain no visible signature. Either this is an obvious 'No' or we're going into a dispute.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

rozi

3 weeks ago

So, the guy says he's blacking out the signature for the protection of the whistleblower, meaning that the document, if realeased at all, will contain no visible signature. Either this is an obvious 'No' or we're going into a dispute.

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Google.com

6

n/a

3 weeks ago

Guys, what time will this event be?

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

People in this market believe they are smarter than the people in the big market ;)

2

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why's it 74% when she's only 0.5% ahead on Polymarket?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I think more like 30 ;)

0

JohannesWalterReich

3 weeks ago

Trump hitting 15 borders in 20 seconds lmao

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)

4

n/a

3 weeks ago

Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Someone spilled some blood, but the tampon sucked most of it, so all good.

0

Liero

3 weeks ago

What just happened on tampon

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

rozi

3 weeks ago

Why would she ever agree to that?

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

The very unexpected has happened. I've just realized some gain on my 'No' on Crypto, added a bit more cash, and flipped to a "Yes'. I did not see that coming. But if it is to happen, it could be tonight :)

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

Well, "focused speech on the local economy..." When he gave a focused speech at the Economic Club in New York a week ago, he mentioned Abdul only 5 times. I mean, I don't know if he's going to say it now. He sometimes mentions him, sometimes not. But the price offered is great for the odds - all that I want to say. Good luck!

0

n/a

0 months ago

that was a rally this is a speech focused on the local economy in that specific area

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

The last time Trump mentioned Abdul, it was at the debate two days ago. He mentioned him 3x.

0

gpsmatty

0 months ago

The last time trump said Abdul was at a Rally in Arizona, this event is in Arizona 🤞🏿

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

rozi

0 months ago

It's a federal holiday, so no, it's not a workday.

0

goingsocial

0 months ago

Sloppy as always, Polymarket. Is Labor Day a "presidential workday" or no? I guess you just wait until it's an issue then arbitrarily tell UMA how to vote, so the rules are meaningless anyway.

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

60-100 minutes

0

midastouch

0 months ago

how long is the average trump rally?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

Good luck! 🙂 (And, you'll need it. To be frank, your bets don't look too good to me, unfortunately 🤔).

0

CookedAlligator

0 months ago

wish me luck gents

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

Take a guess 😉

0

AngHol

0 months ago

Why China 5+?

What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?

rozi

0 months ago

It is indeed a big punchline. And thank you for your donation 😉

1

MoneyTorcher

0 months ago

Isn't "convicted felon" a big punchline?

What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?

rozi

0 months ago

There is a difference between mentioning a "lie" and calling someone a "liar." Just saying 😘

0

IloveGreenOlives

0 months ago

Why is liar so low ?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

rozi

0 months ago

Who else is in Team Abdul? 👳😆

1