Who will Trump fire in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

The title gives off a wrong impression. If the 2025 market goes Y, Elon must go Y here too because of the same cessation clause. The two markets should trade at quite a similar price at this point, given how likely the 2025 market is to go Yes.

4

Who will Trump fire in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

So it cannot never resolve Y if he never becomes the head of DOGE? That makes no sense. It's a Y now.

1

ster

4 months ago

"Who’s in charge of DOGE? Not Elon Musk, White House says" https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/17/doge-administrator-elon-musk-00204639

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Someone was faster than me. To propose it's 250. To dispute it's -750.

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1891668126044991992

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

I'll do it alone, no probs. I just need to align with the disputer for him to not dispute the proposal again :D

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1891668126044991992

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Let me do that!

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1891668126044991992

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

It's done. We just have to wait until the dispute is done.

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1891668126044991992

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1891668126044991992

1

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

gg

2

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

🦊

0

maximmus

4 months ago

Uri Gordin, the commander of the Northern Command: We Prepare for full withdrawal from Lebanon

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory in 2025?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

BuckMySalls - Hey, I was supposed to be the biggest holder here :D

2

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

What a shit show. I asked Polymarket for a clarification two days ago when this whole rules-cucking began, and we get it at the very end of an UMA vote. Jeez.

3

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory in 2025?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Sure. But that has no bearing on whether Ukraine cedes sovereignty over that territory to Russia.

2

zkrollup

4 months ago

At a NATO meeting Wednesday in Brussels, Hegseth said borders for Ukraine were unlikely to be as they were before Russia initially invaded in 2014

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 Check this one out. Same price but until the year's end, so much safer.

0

coquimalo

4 months ago

It’s like taking money from the blind, almost feels criminal. Ceasefire’s around the corner, I give it until next week. American strength is resonating. This war should’ve never happened. Rest in peace to those who have perished.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 Same price but you have until year's end...

0

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

I bought a little more at 34c 🤓

1

semi

4 months ago

wtf guys can we get this back to 70 i want more shares

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory in 2025?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

What argument do you have? This is so improbable i cannot really think of anything.

2

mr.ozi

4 months ago

FV below 5c.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Either you're confusing 14144 with 14114 or you're manipulating.

1

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://pmexpressng.com/six-nigerians-sanctioned-by-us-over-6m-cyber-scam/ Same executive order. Were these sanctions against Nigeria? No. Unless, the sanctioned individuals acted on behalf of the Russian state, it cannot qualify. And there’s no evidence that they did.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

As denizz pointed out: This "E.O. 14144" refers to "Executive Order 14144: Strengthening and Promoting Innovation in the Nation's Cybersecurity". It does not refer to "Executive Order 14114: Taking Additional Steps With Respect to the Russian Federation’s Harmful Activities".

1

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://pmexpressng.com/six-nigerians-sanctioned-by-us-over-6m-cyber-scam/ Same executive order. Were these sanctions against Nigeria? No. Unless, the sanctioned individuals acted on behalf of the Russian state, it cannot qualify. And there’s no evidence that they did.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

It's about a principle. Sanctioning six random Nigerians did not constitute sanctions on Nigeria.

1

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://pmexpressng.com/six-nigerians-sanctioned-by-us-over-6m-cyber-scam/ Same executive order. Were these sanctions against Nigeria? No. Unless, the sanctioned individuals acted on behalf of the Russian state, it cannot qualify. And there’s no evidence that they did.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://pmexpressng.com/six-nigerians-sanctioned-by-us-over-6m-cyber-scam/ Same executive order. Were these sanctions against Nigeria? No. Unless, the sanctioned individuals acted on behalf of the Russian state, it cannot qualify. And there’s no evidence that they did.

5

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

I think you need to refresh your page.

0

wildkomdu

4 months ago

resolving to yes in 15mins, free money

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

"Will Trump sanction Russia before March?" Nope, didn't happen yet, so stay tuned.

2

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Yup 👍

0

Slowroasted

4 months ago

weird how Trump just had a call with Putin, both said it was a great talk. all while the US is sanctioning Russia! also weird how no mainstream news is reporting these sanctions! why? because these sanctions are on a criminal business and its operators, not Russia. Yes holders are going to learn that a russian does not equate to Russia

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/cyber/russian-cybercrime-network-targeted-for-sanctions-across-us-uk-and-australia/

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

They sanctioned a private firm, not the Russian state in any capacity. Trump was on the call with Putin today being best buddies. Let's be serious here.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

They sanctioned a private firm, not the Russian state in any capacity. Trump was on the call with Putin today being best buddies. Let's be serious here.

2

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

I am disputing.

2

mr.ozi

4 months ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Russia." Those sanctions are not against Russia but two random Russian citizens. If they sanction Russian officials, sure, we go Yes. But not here.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Russia." Those sanctions are not against Russia but two random Russian citizens. If they sanction Russian officials, sure, we go Yes. But not here.

2

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory in 2025?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

FV below 5c.

4

Which countries will Trump tariff in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Say what? 🤔

0

NotSMALL13999

4 months ago

"Trump says he will 'absolutely' impose tariffs on the EU". Not so sure anymore tbh. Rules say any new tariff, not a blanket tariff like Canada and Mexico got.

Which countries will Trump tariff in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

My understanding not, but I asked Polymarket for a clarification.

0

Toncar16

4 months ago

TRUMP: ABSOLUTELY WILL PUT TARIFFS ON THE EU.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

You want to fill me at 55c?

0

NERA

4 months ago

so its just a matter of time, Turkey is the one who created it from Zero and you think it recognized lmao

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Maybe you just have ADHD? 😊

0

Justifax

4 months ago

people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.

Who will Jake Paul fight next?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Shaking, shaking, baby!

0

figman

4 months ago

No holders shaking in their boots

Yoon released from custody before March?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Kimchi in pierogi that doesn’t sound like a good idea 🤔

0

KimchiPierogi

4 months ago

Come and fill my orders Yoon

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

I think we are more concerned with Norway over here.

5

drthugs

4 months ago

sweden hates trump lmao.

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

No esli est v karmane pachka sigaret...

0

TACC

4 months ago

U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have already outlined a schedule for how the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia will end within 100 days. The plan was shared with European diplomats, who then passed it on to Ukraine. :- According to the schedule :- Trump plans to hold a call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the end of January or the beginning of February; :- After that, the initiative will be discussed with Ukrainian authorities; :- Following these contacts, negotiations will either be paused if no common ground is found between Kyiv and Moscow, or they will continue; :- In the latter scenario, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will need to revoke his decree prohibiting him from negotiating with Putin; :- Then, in February or March, a trilateral meeting of politicians or two bilateral meetings will be held to define the main parameters of the peace agreement, after which the work will continue through the countries’ special envoys; :- Starting from Easter (April 20), a ceasefire along the entire front line is planned, and Ukrainian forces will need to withdraw from the Kursk region; :- At the end of April, an International Peace Conference will be held, during which other countries will formalize the peace agreements between Kyiv and Moscow.

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Bratan, poka net prichin plakat - everything is still possible)

0

TACC

4 months ago

U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have already outlined a schedule for how the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia will end within 100 days. The plan was shared with European diplomats, who then passed it on to Ukraine. :- According to the schedule :- Trump plans to hold a call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the end of January or the beginning of February; :- After that, the initiative will be discussed with Ukrainian authorities; :- Following these contacts, negotiations will either be paused if no common ground is found between Kyiv and Moscow, or they will continue; :- In the latter scenario, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will need to revoke his decree prohibiting him from negotiating with Putin; :- Then, in February or March, a trilateral meeting of politicians or two bilateral meetings will be held to define the main parameters of the peace agreement, after which the work will continue through the countries’ special envoys; :- Starting from Easter (April 20), a ceasefire along the entire front line is planned, and Ukrainian forces will need to withdraw from the Kursk region; :- At the end of April, an International Peace Conference will be held, during which other countries will formalize the peace agreements between Kyiv and Moscow.

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Thanks for good alpha! Reading this, I've just loaded a bunch more No.

3

TACC

4 months ago

U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have already outlined a schedule for how the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia will end within 100 days. The plan was shared with European diplomats, who then passed it on to Ukraine. :- According to the schedule :- Trump plans to hold a call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the end of January or the beginning of February; :- After that, the initiative will be discussed with Ukrainian authorities; :- Following these contacts, negotiations will either be paused if no common ground is found between Kyiv and Moscow, or they will continue; :- In the latter scenario, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will need to revoke his decree prohibiting him from negotiating with Putin; :- Then, in February or March, a trilateral meeting of politicians or two bilateral meetings will be held to define the main parameters of the peace agreement, after which the work will continue through the countries’ special envoys; :- Starting from Easter (April 20), a ceasefire along the entire front line is planned, and Ukrainian forces will need to withdraw from the Kursk region; :- At the end of April, an International Peace Conference will be held, during which other countries will formalize the peace agreements between Kyiv and Moscow.

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Btw. thanks for deleting the earlier comment. I now successfully re-stocked :)

1

ihatemyself

4 months ago

@SkiLLz I think you are my new best friend

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

If this is your reason to bet, you will likely lose your money.

0

guy-

4 months ago

I dont get it at all, what changed in the last day that it suddenly dropped?

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Possibility of an executive order is now priced out.

4

guy-

4 months ago

I dont get it at all, what changed in the last day that it suddenly dropped?

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Yeah, I’m selling that cheap only today. No more offer tomorrow 😌

0

SkiLLz

4 months ago

30% that’s all they gon drop it to?

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Dude, do you have any clue? It’s going to be part of the reconciliation. No Dem will vote for that bill.

0

mr.ozi

4 months ago

That’s it - Trump said they would do it through Congress. Most likely not before May. gg.

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Yes, he said that, but that’s completely unrealistic. It’s going to be part of the reconciliation bill, and to get that beast done in 100 days would be a shock. They have 1 vote majority in Congress and there are many contentious topics in there. Brace for tough negotiations.

2

mr.ozi

4 months ago

That’s it - Trump said they would do it through Congress. Most likely not before May. gg.

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

That’s it - Trump said they would do it through Congress. Most likely not before May. gg.

3

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

Most likely a promise of expediting through Congress. That’s my sense.

1

HarveyAndre

4 months ago

So will he sign an EO today?

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

At max a creation of a team to look into stuff, I reckon. But let’s see 👀

2

HarveyAndre

4 months ago

So will he sign an EO today?

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

4 months ago

We will see in due time 😇

1

sadbois

4 months ago

why isn't this much higher? Are people expecting this to take place after April 29th?

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Please reconsider betting on things you unfortunately do not understand...

2

bigFlavor800

5 months ago

Within 180 days the working group will make recommendations for the creation and maintenance of a digital stockpile… Will it take longer than the 100 days of this maybe? But this was at 30-40% BEFORE the EO and before the appointment of Lummis… I’m not saying it’s guaranteed but y’all crazy this is happening as fast as it can and everyone sells off 🙄

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Missed it? Are you sure that is what’s happening? 🙂

1

ElonMusk420

5 months ago

IT WILL HAPPEN GUYS https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4621

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

What news article?

0

Pollytician

5 months ago

This market is confusing me. I had 5k Yes shares but the market is just not reacting to the news from Trump

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

You guys are in pretty bad shape. I think we’re going to 30 within a week or so, after the hype of Trump talking about it goes down.

2

Pollytician

5 months ago

This market is confusing me. I had 5k Yes shares but the market is just not reacting to the news from Trump

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

OK, fine. Good price, still. Thanks and good luck!

1

SkiLLz

5 months ago

ive never seen a easier bet in my life

Trump ends taxes on tips?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

I’ve put 2k at 80c.

1

SkiLLz

5 months ago

ive never seen a easier bet in my life

What will Trump say during inauguration speech?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

The world we're living in is a meme.

2

frosen

5 months ago

Do people actually think he's going to mention a Chinese spyware app at a speech celebrating his inauguration or is this just a meme

What will Trump say during inauguration speech?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Yes it does

1

Jeromevnt

5 months ago

If he say DOGE for departement Of government efficiency it is work ?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

I can help you at 88c with 3k shares :)

1

Car

5 months ago

The price is dropping, because when Hamas accepts the ceasefire, it could be that the Hamas leaves Qatar, because there isnt a reason to stay. Tbh im worried about this position, but i cant sell, because theres no liquidity.

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

… to make any money.

14

epicRNG

5 months ago

i'm not going

What will Trump say during inauguration speech?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Susan, this was inappropriate. Your next performance review will be heavily affected.

1

Car

5 months ago

Doge buyers must be mentally challenged

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

xD

2

diegofernb

5 months ago

Greenland has been preparing for this and already has the capability to secede from Kingdom of Denmark. It's just a matter of conducting a referendum and then accepting a proposal from US to join as a state. In exchange the US could offer a lump sum to each one of the 50k inhabitants plus inmediate citizenship. I am betting on this deal is happening. The United states will then get unparalleled access to the arctic plus American soil located directly above Europe and dramatically closer to Moscow.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Hard to come by, believe me.

0

Car

5 months ago

I want whatever YES holders are smoking

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Indeed, a very average American 😉

5

AverageAmerican

5 months ago

President Trump said America will be acquiring Greenland for national security. Likely through a referendum. Even questioned Denmark's Territorial claim, while saying if they hold out, he will levy high tariffs on them. It's happening. Denmark is warm to the idea according to gene wilder their PM

Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHell I know

0

Eridpnc

5 months ago

Why is this market above 5c?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

He disputed the resolution proposal.

1

Dropper11

5 months ago

thanks for the free $250

France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

The rules don’t imply that an event before shouldn’t count. They just don’t exclude it explicitly - it’s an important difference. And i don’t remember any good examples, unfortunately.

0

Troof

5 months ago

Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.

France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Yes, we have fact check markets, and this isn’t one. Generally, unless otherwise stated, only events after market’s creation pertain to it, otherwise the market would be immediately resolvable and would make no sense. The rules were written poorly, again, and you suffer from that. I’m sorry.

1

Troof

5 months ago

Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.

France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

It’s not part of the rules, correct. It’s part of prediction markets implicit rules. This doesn’t suffice for Y.

0

Troof

5 months ago

Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.

What will Trump say during inauguration speech?

mr.ozi

5 months ago

Let’s go 😇

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Nope.

2

greengasper

6 months ago

MMousse knows something

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

are you either braindead or just braindead to ask that to a person with $300,000 PNL?

3

TRUCK

6 months ago

mmouse you are either braindead or just laundering money fr

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Wishful expression of a desire.

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

It's pretty much done :)

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

It's pretty much done :)

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Epic. Brings up the memories. Such a movie!

1

FUNDI

6 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwIIDzrVVdc

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

That’s why the rules are misleading and badly formulated. They deleted the clause, rather than added something.

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

When did you become so reasonable? 🙂

1

Justifax

6 months ago

it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Sec 101 (1) was removed from the first draft, restoring the language that didn’t allow for a raise. I mean, the rules are super horrible - hence the confusion. I’d refund the whole thing, but the fact is that the part allowing for a raise was deleted after the first draft.

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Yeah, it doesn’t. The raise is blocked elsewhere so you need a concrete wording in CR to allow for a raise. They did that in the first draft on page 15, but removed it later because of the pressure. Nicely explained here: https://x.com/MattGlassman312/status/1869391578420433169

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

It did 😇 Just check page 15 of the first draft, where they strike the reference to 118-47 in omnibus. That text is no longer to be found in subsequent drafts 😇

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Oh, by default the pay raise cannot happen because of the provisions of the omnibus - that’s why they needed to strike in the CR for the raise to be possible.

0

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Like if you like to like 👍

5

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

"And while the official also denied reports that Qatar had formally asked Hamas to leave" from the BBC article. The rules talk about a removal. Also from the same article: "He also stressed that “a decision to close down the office permanently is a decision that you will hear about from us directly and shouldn’t be part of media speculation."

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Ammunition storage

0

zxxxzx

6 months ago

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1866186196163903909

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

What’s the source? :)

0

its.just.fire

6 months ago

confirmed by the mother of the hostage: #BREAKING The mother of the Israeli hostage whose footage was released yesterday by Hamas said after meeting PM Netanyahu that the government is going to accept a partial deal, which “condemns those who will stay behind to death”

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

mr.ozi

6 months ago

Libertarian votes. He might not even really know who that is and what crimes he committed. And he hates drugs.

2

bung

6 months ago

Why wouldn't Trump pardon Ross if he said he would? Easy bet imo.

Poland Presidential Election

mr.ozi

6 months ago

lol

2

n/a

6 months ago

Rafal Trzaskowski is a leftist liberal and a puppet of Soros.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

If you assume 54%, 43%, and 4% and that gets you under 1.5 then you must assume a lot more votes still coming in than me 🙃

0

Astera

7 months ago

I can see why people are nervous with their position when data is now just dripping out (especially for the under 1.5% group) which creates uncertainty and second guessing from each of our own vote counting prediction patterns hence the odds flipping so much. That’s going to continue unfortunately as looking at this weekend’s period in 2016, about 300k votes were added over Saturday and Sunday while in 2020 it was about 200k so anything more than that this year for both days combined would be a bonus. On a positive note, while only about 110k votes were added yesterday (Friday), it is still breaking well for the Dems at 53.6% to 42.7% with the ‘Other’ now creeping up to 3.7% (as other counts can be deprioritised in the early counting) and in my model that gets us under 1.5%.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

You’re on the right side now! Worth staying for a while 😉

0

Eridpnc

7 months ago

I either flip no more times, or flip 10 more times

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Thinking about the implied size of your balls does not seem like a sound investment strategy 😜 Having said that, I am hoping to hold until the end, because it looks really promising as of now.

1

rektoplasma

7 months ago

just a reminder to take your profits

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Got you, thanks!

0

Flaner

7 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

And also for me to understand, when you say 6% you mean that the current average of 52/46 in a given county would become 58/40? Thanks! 🙏

0

Flaner

7 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

I think that would be a great way to approximate a seemingly structural difference between the overall voting averages per county and the very late votes.

0

Flaner

7 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Great, thanks. The thing is that 6% can be either very little or a lot. A very solid thing to do would be to recalculate your model using last weeks vote results per county instead an overall county average with an arbitrary bonus added on top (be it 0.5, 1, or 6). What do you think? 🤔

0

Flaner

7 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Is the 1% not little if we were to believe that the late votes are structurally different?

1

Flaner

7 months ago

https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

There is probably big enough correlation to make him better at this than any of us though.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Thanks. "Built the wall" wouldn't count though. He needs to say "build the wall."

1

n/a

7 months ago

How is build the wall so low? He has mentioned his building of the wall last few rallies

What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

I count on the garbage can...

0

What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Did he? Which ones?

0

n/a

7 months ago

How is build the wall so low? He has mentioned his building of the wall last few rallies

What will Trump say during Allentown, PA rally?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Don't listen to Padre. He did. In Traverse City three days ago.

0

big.mek

7 months ago

Has Trump ever said Nazi in the past?

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Not anymore - I sold to Domer. I don't trust them hawkish Israelis not to make another attack this year.

0

50Pence

7 months ago

anyone else experiencing adrenaline withdrawal since the October market?

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

mr.ozi

7 months ago

No, I’m even more on it! 🤣

0

50Pence

7 months ago

anyone else experiencing adrenaline withdrawal since the October market?

What will Trump say during Univision town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

"One of the last questions that Trump took was from Yaritza Kuhn, a 39-year-old Puerto Rican homemaker who lives in North Carolina. She asked Trump if he agreed with his wife’s stance on reproductive rights. Melania Trump wrote in her recently published memoir that she was staunchly pro-choice. Trump replied that he was anti-abortion in the same vein as the late-President Ronald Reagan and supported access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and a threat to the mother’s life. He also doubled down on his support for states deciding on access to abortion. In Florida, voters will decide next month on a proposed amendment that would codify abortion rights in the Constitution — an issue on which Trump says he will vote “no.” He emphasized that the Supreme Court’s ruling that overturned of Roe v. Wade, which regulated abortion at the federal level, had happened during his administration." Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article293303874.html

0

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I got 14 :)

0

skrrrr

8 months ago

mention of tax was 13, with "taxing" "taxes" "taxpayers" all included

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

11x my friend

1

n/a

8 months ago

million did not hit, just rewatched the stream, im 100% sure

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Tax x13 + Taxing (queen) x1.

0

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

xD good troll right here! :)

1

Eridpnc

8 months ago

"ing" like "ful" are totally definitely words. I am sure if you look at the precedent, you will find that UMA ruled in favor of "ful" as a separate standalone word that people use in the english language to communicate with each other.

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Thanks guys! That one was an exciting one. Million x11 was a narrow one. Next time!

0

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yes, it is, indeed, on the No side though.

0

:xdddd

8 months ago

million 10+times is underrated

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This one is a fun one!

1

Which party wins the most seats in Lithuanian Election?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Prediction for round 2 - LSDP: +37, TS-LKD: +29. https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/2385084/rytas-po-rinkimu-kas-susikaus-antrajame-ture-ir-kas-gali-iskovoti-daugiausiai-mandatu

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Very different situations. Walz could've only meant 'teacher', given the context. Here, Trump could've meant Venezuela, or Venezuelans, or Venezuelan. We cannot be sure what he wanted to say, thus, we cannot conclude he was saying Venezuela.

3

Randomchooser

8 months ago

In the same situation one month ago UMA voted YES for Walz "tch" saying he was clearly meant "teacher" which it wasn't, why this time should be different with a word spoken clearer? Facts, not opinions.

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I would invite some more doubt the other way ;)

0

WINNING

8 months ago

feel like UMA will resolve to yes, they don't care much about technicalities. If he meant to say it but didn't finish the word then that's a yes

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

No.

0

J.D.K

8 months ago

I wonder if this can end up in a draw 50/50?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

xD We're not counting what he could've said, but what he said.

1

WINNING

8 months ago

feel like UMA will resolve to yes, they don't care much about technicalities. If he meant to say it but didn't finish the word then that's a yes

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The point is how many times did he say Venezuela. He said it twice, and then he said Venez once. That's it. No? 😄 We cannot count half-finished words that might've or might've not been the word.

12

·

Liked by 🥥💊, JanSobiesk... and 11 others

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I listened to every moment he says Venezuela/Venezuelan. There's no doubt. Venezuela x2.

1

mr.ozi

8 months ago

2x Venezuela, 4x Venezuelan (tar, prison gang, gang, and illegal alien)

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

2x Venezuela, 4x Venezuelan (tar, prison gang, gang, and illegal alien)

3

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Tax you got to pay after you die ;)

0

Mr.Market

8 months ago

whats death tax?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Damn, you're right!

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Are you certain it's for the rally in Reading, and not Scranton? Scranton for me shows 8x and no Chinese, but Reading shows China 9x and Chinese 1x.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

My software tells me 8x. And no Chinese. Hmmm.

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

China 9 actually, but yeah it didn't hit.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Nope :)

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

I have China 10x

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I have 8x for Reading.

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

That's for the Scranton one, it's actually 9x for the one in Reading, and 1 Chinese, but Chinese doesn't count.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Kamala x31, China x8, Border x11. Good night!

0

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

China 8x

0

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I guess you see my point now even better? :)

1

DiabloCRO

8 months ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Damn, i missed the sale...

1

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It did hit last rally, friend...

0

samuraimyth

8 months ago

No way he says border 30 times bruh it did not hit last rally

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Dude, you are on your way to lose all your bets.

2

BiggieSols

8 months ago

Where do these phrases come from? Who creates the market? Hi I'm new here.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

My mistake, he mentioned Helene once.

0

DiabloCRO

8 months ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Btw. I changed my mind on Green New Scam :)

1

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Sure, he never named Helene, and simply referred to it as 'hurricane'. I think the odds are good that he will not name Milton either.

0

DiabloCRO

8 months ago

Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Remarks and rallies don’t really differ in substance.

0

R13

8 months ago

Butler he did not say anything it was all about the assassination that day Walker was he making remarks in a plant event was slated in that manner and mint bill was never rally you can check it was again him giving remarks in a small factory about manufacturing this is a proper rally.

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Odsiecz Wiednia?;)

1

JanSobieski3

8 months ago

You are welcome :)

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Already after the first vote, a few of us have been telling you that it's pretty much done already, but many of you did not want to listen. In addition to the strong logic of this going P1 after P4 was declared at first, we also had market rules (even if poorly formulated), which are more nuanced than the vibes you'll get from the news headlines or Wikipedia headlines, that you chose to rest your case on. There was another market for entry, which was created for the possibility of Israeli raids, but you treated this market as if it was about the entry. This market, however, was created for a possibility of an Israeli army invading Lebanon (think infantry and tanks, not a 3-hour overnight raids by small special ops teams). As per all the evidence, footage, geolocated imagery, and detailed reports - small numbers of tanks and infantry entered Lebanon first on Oct 2. That's why this market should've resolved No, and it did. Rather than complaining, I'd suggest taking a step back, and integrating possible learnings from this experience, especially around taking news headlines as a measure of what happened on the ground.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Oki 😉

1

Phoenix777

8 months ago

just wait and see, how it will turnaround... ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I wrote a few long comments a few days ago explaining why this would in all likelihood resolve to No, asking folks not to invest into Yes at crazy prices. Some suggested that i was trying to push the price of No up, while i mostly felt sorry for people losing money by not understanding the context and the governance here. Well, I've tried, and i was mostly ignored. I think I'll just stay silent next time.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Chad is a big country, but mostly a desert. Not that interesting, really. I wouldn't advise travelling.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

To prevent fraud. You see that your personal votes are added. If all votes were revealed at once, you wouldn't know if your votes were not centrally altered.

1

FamilyCapital

8 months ago

what is the logic behind of having delay on reveal of votes rsult. why not to do that at the same time?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Chad is the new real Batman.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

That's going to be... impossible? ;)

0

Ferguson,Turd

8 months ago

Can someone please link me a different website w/ twice the liquidity and beter odds?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

191 voters (some votes are pooled).

0

BaruchAsulin

8 months ago

Dose yes stand a chance ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Unfortunately, the media headlines have been quite misleading.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

That he's cooked?

1

Donkov

8 months ago

What did he mean by this?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

At least I don't go around offending everyone that doesn't agree with my perspective.

1

McLarry

8 months ago

Rozi, worthless fraud, calls himself a statistician just because he knows what a median is, LOL. How about some real mathematics?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Please believe in what you want to believe and keep your hope - that's super cool - but do not necessarily bet money on it. Not at this point.

0

Anti-ScamLawyer

8 months ago

Some of us believe the truth will prevail despite early appearances

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This is going strongly in the direction of No after 7% of votes and 17% voters revealed their votes, with 83% siding with No. And the Yes is still going strong on buying more shares. This is a fascinating case for a psychology paper.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Shayku, very smooth. Pumping Yes, switching to No at the beginning of the reveal phase.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It does, but there was no military offensive until Wednesday, so it doesn't matter if the intent was there. Anyway, I prefer to measure the intent by the action, even if it preceds it.

0

Shayku

8 months ago

I can't believe I have to say this, but intent precedes action.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

No shit, sherlock ;)

0

HaterzLoserz

8 months ago

November closed days ago bruv

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Voting is still on for 2.5h more.

0

FamilyCapital

8 months ago

BTW, is voting stage closed? we waiting for reveal, or they still decide our destiny?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

And one thing for sure, the median will change a lot once this market is resolved :D

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

You are our median, car.

0

Car

8 months ago

Woah

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Actually, the word "invade" is even more relevant than "intent" here, given that the No crowd argues that raids are not enough to constitute an invasion. Also the word "sources" is also more important here than "intent," with that the primary sources from the rules say no invasion before the deadline.

0

shouldbealright

8 months ago

Imagine having $600k at stake on the semantics of the word "intended" lol. Love you, Chad, but jfc I'm nervous for you too

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Sure, but as per the market rules, we need both 1) the invasion and 2) the intent behind it. So, even if we were to assume the intent was there, the invasion did not commence, because raids are not enough, especially if they have been happening 70+ times since Oct 2023, as disclosed by the IDF.

0

denizz

8 months ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I like you trolling this time :D

3

Car

8 months ago

Maybe next time, YES scammers!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Well, we have no evidence that that's what they wrote.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

That is why they have submitted the complaints to the UN. On October 4, yes, but they say it started on September 30. So they obviously admit it

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

He Denizz. The thing is that they might've changed their mind in the meantime. What if due to the US pressure, let's say, they abandoded their invasion and stopped after the raids. In such a case, we wouldn't be able to say that there was an invasion. In other words, the raids themselves, even if preperatory for an invasion, cannot constitute an invasion. The market rules stipulate that an actual invasion to control territory must've commenced on Sep 30. It did not. We only had limited in-and-out raids within 500m of the border. Cheers, friend.

1

denizz

8 months ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Well, the Wikipedia you quote writes: "On 1 October, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon in a series of small scale raids intended to precede a broader ground invasion." Which satisfies the September Entry market but not September Invade market.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

wikipedia. remember time zones

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Oct 3: Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.

0

Phrank

8 months ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Oct 1: It is not immediately clear where the 98th Division began operations in southern Lebanon (...) UNIFIL source told Western media that the Israeli forces have staged “sporadic raids” into Lebanon but have not “remained on Lebanese soil.“ (...) Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon.

0

Phrank

8 months ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Sep 30: It is unclear where or if the IDF has entered southern Lebanon in force at the time of writing.

0

Phrank

8 months ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Doglover: with pleasure! https://www.understandingwar.org/

0

Phrank

8 months ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Well, those time-stamped sources, including official announcement from the IDF, confirm "limited raids" on the night of Sep 30, that came in and left. First footage of invading troops entering Lebanon comes from Oct 2.

0

BigMike11

8 months ago

We've got dozens of time-stamped sources that say yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The Institute for the Study of War is a good source for the Oct 2. Also, there's zero footage of invading troops from before Oct 2. You cannot really invade a country and have no one see it, or?

1

McLarry

8 months ago

The invasion was on October 2 with 0 sources confirming this of course

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Because in September we had only in-and-out raids, and proper troops invaded only on Oct 2. That's why. As per information from the IDF, the United Nations, the United States, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.

1

Phrank

8 months ago

If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

If it is, then what Chad has been doing is 4x worse.

0

PolyRig-Fried

8 months ago

therealbatman bought 151,771 No at 48.6¢ ($73,758) - is this a case of "i can distort reality with money"?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Don't say hop before you jump 😜

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

8 months ago

domer getting doomed and its glorious

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Well, i actually think that this voting is better than some random dude in an office deciding on his interpretation.

0

Ferguson,Turd

8 months ago

Remember friends whether you WIN (red shares) or LOSE (green shares). We can all agree on how terrible this process is

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

GG :)

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

You mean UMA, father?

0

DopeFrancis

8 months ago

No holders have turned from the face of God.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Gambling addiction :)

1

McLarry

8 months ago

If Chad tells his therapist that he lost all his money because he bet that Israel would invade Lebanon, will he be treated for gambling addiction or for a psychosis? Serious question

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I am thinking the same. I should've predicted that Chad would want to dump more money into this pot. I'll be smarter next time ;)

0

mango-lassi

8 months ago

Price keeps getting better and better, why did I buy earlier :/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

:D Good humor :)

0

PolyRig-Fried

8 months ago

Funny, a prediction market that is predicting the past. And the second final review. We need 2 new bets: can Polymarket predict the past and is a final review really a final review or can there be more than one final review?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Hi friend :)

1

mango-lassi

8 months ago

Great minds think alike

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Chad keeps pumping into the abyss. I am not whether to cry or lough at this point.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I mean he has a point though. If UMA votes appear to be inconsistent without new information, then how can one trust the Oracle?

1

RememberAmalek

8 months ago

This is a reductive and simplistic interpretation of what's going on here

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Other than in-and-out raids, Israeli troops started entering for combat on Oct 2. Plenty of footage of that happening. No footage of anything else than raids from before. Here's your impossible answer.

1

Justifax

8 months ago

Fundamentally - if it didn't start on Sept30th, when the headlines said it did, when does it start? Answer that question without making up rules.

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I like this one 😎🎈

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I've explained in detail below, take a look at my comment some hours back.

0

TheGoober

8 months ago

What does early request mean in the UMA vote?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I mean, in all likelihood the Too Early crowd will vote No. It is just extremely unlikely otherwise.

0

TheGoober

8 months ago

Current UMA vote: 80.14% Early Request, 0.11% No, 19.75% Yes. Doesn't Early Request mean this market will resolve No since this is the final review?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Read my comments down below - I explained in detail :) Cheers.

0

securebet

8 months ago

what does it mean early request??

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Well, this is so factually incorrect that it's even funny that someone wrote that :D

0

shouldbealright

8 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Border x23, Million x14. I have no more cash, so I give you the numbers ;)

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I bought at 25 then again at 73, and now I sold everything at 80. That's the break-even of risk/reward for me at this point.

0

informed

8 months ago

No voters? there is there is less than 48 hours left, up to the point of Israel response how do you think probability will change?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

How did I miss such a sale? Damn.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yeah, that pretty much settles it :)

0

Dropper11

8 months ago

Not only did UMA vote P4 for this market, but they also voted P4 for the November market, which was proposed on October 1st. Given that vote, they still think that by that date there wasn't enough scale to call it an invasion, so this is extremely likely to be voted as NO.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I can't speak for Domer, but i was betting No because i thought the ground invasion would happen after September 30. I sold everything at a loss on September 29 because of the signals in the Israeli media that the invasion was beginning. Then i bought No again on October 1 when it became clear that these were only raids and that the actual invasion was still to happen.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

Now that you've answered me and stopped ignoring me, tell me, you never thought Israel would invade on foot, did you? What a lucky coincidence for you, that the market is still going no. More luck than sense, or was there some help here?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I think we're pretty much talking to a void. I'm slowly giving up on trying to help people who are most likely throwing their money away 💰

0

🤺JustPunched

8 months ago

(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The final review timeline indicates by when the voters can reveal the votes they posted before, and therefore by when we will get a final decision on the current dispute. Given that the vast majority of votes have already been revealed, we know that the decision is P4 (too early). The voting began Oct 2, 00.01 UTC and finished Oct 2, 23:59 UTC, so basically the votes were committed yesterday. After this process is complete, we will be able to propose a resolution again, which will happen as soon as possible, so in 13h. The point here is that between the last voting window and now, we received no new substantial information that could change how token holders would vote. The vast majority voted on Oct 2 that they believed the market criteria were not met to justify Yes, hence the Too Early vote - you cannot vote No before the deadline of the market. So, my understanding is that it's safe to assume we will be seeing No in the next roundd of voting.

0

PBet

8 months ago

so the 'final review in 13 hours' timer doesnt symbolize the end of the final review but instead the beginning?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

DFK: Well, UMA has already voted yesterday and it's extremely unlikely that they would shift their vote, that's the point. And yes, I believe they care about voting "right," which I think they did. I am in the camp saying that the invasion started only on Wednesday, if at all, and before that we only had in and out raids, which do not meet the criteria of this market. Anyway, friend, good luck to you.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

8 months ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Abdenriel: Normally, sure, but actually, there's plenty of liquidity in this market, and I almost have no stake (relatively). I literally feel bad for people not understanding the governance here, and making decisions based off that.

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

8 months ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Because he will say it ;)

0

Vaas

8 months ago

Why is missile defence shield so high?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yes, exactly, too early because it was proposed just before the official deadline, so in principle Israel could've still invaded before the deadline. So, for technical reasons, the token holders could only vote Too Early or Yes (or No, if they did not pay attention, which a few voters did).

0

PBet

8 months ago

so 'early request' means P4, too early to say and there will be another extention of the resolving period?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.

4

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

8 months ago

https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

https://vote.uma.xyz/

1

PBet

8 months ago

where can I see the votes?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I hope they are just a very rich person, and they're fine. Because betting more than 10% of your bankroll into such a disputable market would be pretty nuts.

1

jayminho

8 months ago

@chad are You Okay bró ??

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.

2

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

8 months ago

With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

And they had to vote P4 rather than No, because the resolution was proposed before the deadline. That's the crux of the logistics here.

1

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yeah, the invasion started on Wednesday. Someone proposed too early.

0

Meow.Zedong

8 months ago

What happens if consensus is p-4 too early at time of proposal but there is consensus that the invasion has happened post-proposal? We’re talking a matter of hours difference. Curious how UMA resolves “too early” resolutions for markets that still have ample time such as this one?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

With Nikki, was that after the vote?

0

truthteller

8 months ago

guess it's over unless polymarket steps in and clarifies

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Not at this stage.

0

truthteller

8 months ago

well there's a possibility polymarket clarifies fwiw

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I'm starting to get more trust in there being reason in this system. Good.

1

What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Such different bets, my friend.

0

Eridpnc

8 months ago

Tampon Y is the new Tampon N

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It looks like someone sold No, rather than anyone buying.

0

BiggestBidenFan

8 months ago

Who bought?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Why would anyone buy No in this market? Because Israel doesn't want to establish control - is that the argument? They are already controlling areas near Maroun Al Ras el for example. Just curious 🤔🙂

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

OK, OK doglover69.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

He actually argued in favor of this market resolving to a Yes in the UMA dispute, although he holds 54k No shares. I doubt you would have a fraction of that integrity.

1

McLarry

8 months ago

JustScam is a mangy shyster who has licked blood from the Venezuela market he rigged and now tries his scam on every market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

No man, this market is a Yes. September market is a No. Don't create conspiracy theories just to suit yourself.

1

McLarry

8 months ago

And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I'm just telling you what's going to happen in the UMA vote. If it's a Yes, it's a Yes, if it's Too Early, it will be No short after. You can keep your comentary about the events on the ground for another thread.

0

ncap

8 months ago

What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Because that would mean that the voters felt that there was not enough evidence for Yes by the time of the resolution being proposed. Given that no more new information in favor of Yes came in that little time window between the resolution proposal and midnight of Sep 30, P4 means that in the next vote we will see a No. In other words, P4 is a formality that needs to be done before we get a No. To sum up, Yes is a Yes, and Too Early (P4) will be followed by a No.

1

ncap

8 months ago

What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It could be.

0

BiggestBidenFan

8 months ago

(Reasonable Assumption - it's not a No limit buy order at 15c)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Only raids before, in and out, which doesn't meet the criteria. Today, however, they seem to have entered to (at least temporarily) control some Lebanese territory.

0

x3x3

8 months ago

Yes and the operation started before September 30 ET

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

In practice, it is.

0

x3x3

8 months ago

No and too early is not the same...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

We have first evidence of an Israeli invasion actually beginning - **two days after the deadline**. Today, Israeli troops entered one village (sic) - Maroun Al Ras.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yes, unfortunately. That's why I'm not buying more of No.

1

LastChanceSaloon

8 months ago

Are we beholder to the intelligence/opinions of UMA voters? Is that what this will boil down to?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

A source from the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said the Israeli military has staged some “sporadic raids” across the Lebanon-Israel border but **its troops have not remained on Lebanese soil**. The assessment that Israel has not yet launched a full-scale invasion was supported by two other high-level Lebanese security sources. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The Institute for the Studies of War: The IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has not yet engaged IDF units in Lebanon as of the time of writing. **Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-1-2024

2

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The rig crowded confused Trump with his running mate.

1

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Doesn't matter.

0

MasterMindful

8 months ago

I sold my fire cause i Thought He said it in the context of fire , like a fire in the theater , which is not fire of firing someone

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It looks like you haven't.

0

getgood

8 months ago

Some of you have never listened to JD Vance and it shows

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

No, because they need to declare a war against Iran, not an internal state of war. Very different things.

3

Nicky-Boi

8 months ago

Curious if the "state of war" Israel entered after Oct 7 would have resolved to Yes here. If not, I don't seem declaring war here if they didn't even officially do so after Hamas attacked them.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The outcome depends on UMA, so what it is actually worth, or what the market believes it's worth doesn't matter.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

buy more. if 10c is the fair price you should buy way more

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It's actually Chad who moves the market single-handedly.

0

McLarry

8 months ago

“JustKen” moves the markets single-handedly. If he bets on one side, many others follow, such as Car. In this respect, something has changed, everyone now trusts him to push it through.

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The last time Israel declared war on another state? In 1948. Good luck to the Yes holders.

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This market would trade 5-15 for a Yes if it wasn't for Chad. I'm not taking more risks here, but i do think it's a great opportunity for potential money from Mr Chad.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Just raids, which doesn't meet the criteria.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.

2

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

@GNS I can't speak about the others, but yes, I expect that, unless things escalate significantly. They benefit from staff on the ground for diplomatic and intel purposes.

0

Toma

8 months ago

easy bet

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

1) Makes no sense. 2) Could happen if esacalate a lot.

0

n/a

8 months ago

US embassy is only 10 miles from recent bombings near the airport. It can be inferred that Israel and the US will have some sort of agreement not to bomb near the embassy, but this may be voided as Hezbollah fighters clue into this and inevitably move bases closer to the north. I think there may be two outcomes here: 1.) The embassy is evacuated due to a heads up from Israel getting ready to bomb Hezbollah targets who have moved in nearby, and 2.) the embassy is evacuated due to public uprisings/protests by the Lebanese who are angry at Israel and their ally (US). If you remember last year, when Israel bombed the hospital in Gaza their were riots outside of the Beirut embassy. Imagine the riots now that it is their own country being bombed, not just Palestine.

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Agreed :)

0

Toma

8 months ago

easy bet

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

And I mean, they were not entering Israel without the guns, or were they? ;) If you have a commando coming with guns, I mean, give me a break.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I divested from No due to the risk, so this is a fairly impartial opinion: If there had been any combat encounters, we probably would have seen footage from local Lebanese residents or Hezbollah trying to garner support and mobilize. Therefore, what likely happened were small reconnaissance scouting missions, which, to the best of my judgment, wouldn't meet the criteria. Good luck to all.

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

For disclosure, I had 3k of 'No' until 26h ago when the news of those raids came out. I don't like being in dispute territory, so I backed out from this bet. It's funny that we have a second wave of reaction to the same news, just delayed by a day.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I am just saying it is open for interpreation whether it meets the criteria. Perhaps when more details and/or footage emerges, we will know more.

0

abdendriel

8 months ago

They’ve been raiding Lebanon 🏴‍☠️

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Btw. this is all news from 26h ago, just shared more widely. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-may-have-already-begun-small-raids-on-hezbollah-in-south-lebanon-reports/

1

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

1

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Let's go!

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I did 😅

0

Remontada

8 months ago

My only regret is I didn't buy more...

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

7

0

n/a

8 months ago

8 border now

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Border border border fun 😉

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Yes, thank you. You shouldn't have.

0

PanosMariolis2001

8 months ago

nice donations

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

I have never bet straight No's on Trump. Let's see! Have fun everyone :)

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

It doesn't.

0

OddsMaker77

8 months ago

Does Missile Defense Shield count as Missile Shield?

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

The reason the reps are being asked about it is because Harris said in numerous places that she supports the billionaire minimum tax, which is the unrealized capital gain tax.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Just add this with Harris's own tweets on supporting the billionaire minimum tax, which is the same thing, and the case for No really falls apart - I really believe that, independently of my shares. I had No shares yesterday, but I read more into the topic, and changed my mind.

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

8 months ago

https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Only in combination with Harris tweeting that she supports the "billionaire minimum tax."

0

Betwick

9 months ago

If this is the best evidence for Yes you guys are in trouble

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Here's another one: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831512664507314308 For me, this is explicit enough. They are clarifying what they're supporting. It's Harris's official Twitter account.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Her official channel clarified that Harris's tax on unrealized capital gains would apply only to people with "with at least $100 million in wealth." https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1827073628162130283 So, let's go through this. 1. Harris says that she supports Biden's tax package, which includes a "billionaire minimum tax," which is administration's idea to tax unrealized capital gains of people with $100M in wealth. 2. Trump sees that and says that Harris idea to tax unrealized capital gains will kill small business owners. 3. Harris's official Twitter channel debunks Trump's statement by saying that the tax on unrealized capital gains "applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth." 4. Harris explicitly says that she supports a "billionaire minimum tax" in both her policy document and on Twitter. That makes her support even more explicit.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

If anyone wonders why 'No' is relatively cheap and 'Yes' relatively expensive, here's some context: https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1288919166262448249

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He said it 60x on Aug 22 during a speech in Arizona on border security.

1

Apsalar

9 months ago

there's a part of me that truly believes that if we made a border 50+ bracket for a rally, Trump would still find a way to hit it

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He says Reagan in almost all his rallies the last month.

0

DARKRAI

9 months ago

Why is reagan so high?

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Unfortunately, very unlikely.

0

gintas

9 months ago

hopefully this time i can hit something

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Stop manipulating.

3

Car

9 months ago

Congrats to haterzloserz

What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Because it's likely he's going to say it.

1

DARKRAI

9 months ago

Why is reagan so high?

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What matters is what are the chances of him saying it. And those are at least 80%.

0

Sit

9 months ago

what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Nothing. And? :)

0

Sit

9 months ago

what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Trans is heavily underpriced. Here's free advice :) Good luck!

1

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This market: Is 50Pence right, or everyone else?

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

50Pence, what makes you buy so much?

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

50Pence, what makes you buy so much?

2

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I hear you. Yeah, better to count oneself ;) We both got our lessons, though yours is much tougher. It reminds me of me selling 3k shares of Beyonce's performing at the DNC for 0.03c, after media wrote that it was "confirmed" that she would perform. I learnt not to sell for pennies when there's still even a tiny chance.

0

BlackSky123

9 months ago

I listened to about half the speech, then did other shit. Didn't really count anything myself, just listening for single whole words. I blindly trusted the market price and what others were saying on discord. When Trump was walking away, millions no was over 95 cents iirc, so I figured it didn't hit. Turns out, there was some mass delusion going on, and Johannes was the only one who counted correctly. During the yes pump, I thought everyone was mistaken and sold a bunch of shit because I am a greedy idiot, and ended up losing 7k. Would've made a couple hundred tonight were it not for that. This was a lesson learned for me the hard way, I guess. I'm still up over 2k since joining here in August, but this really sucks. Thank you again Johannes for actually knowing how to count.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

And why wasn't I paying attention?

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?

0

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I checked now. After 17 minutes of the speech, we were already at 10x Million, and after 30 minutes, we were at 12x. Ended up at 14x. So, I was correct.

0

DonaldinhoTrumpito

9 months ago

That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Maybe I made a mistake, I haven't checked yet, but I tried not to count billions :)

0

DonaldinhoTrumpito

9 months ago

That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I stopped counting Million at 12x and that was 2/3 into the speech.

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He said transgender, which counts. Transition doesn't count.

0

iLoseUSDC

9 months ago

Does "transition" count as trans?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I'm pretty ready with my bets. Good luck to everyone :)

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

P&L or not, he's got a point ;)

1

n/a

9 months ago

would like to thank the crypto bros in advance❤️

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, agreed.

0

Donkov

9 months ago

We desperately need plain Comrade over/under market, instead of Comrade Kamala. Trump is trolling us

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, I am planning on making some by betting 'No' ;) I am already at 50% profit on my No on x15 - a bit more, and I sell. Otherwise, it's worth keeping for 0.05 a piece.

0

gpsmatty

9 months ago

bro betting no on the border is throwing money away

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

As if whether it's actually "too late" mattered?

4

Shayku

9 months ago

Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Not all rallies and events served as markets on this platform. Anyway, why don't you bet if you believe in your data and analysis? ;)

0

Sardinianshepherd

9 months ago

if you guys check the old mention markets with function closed market on poly, Crypto/bitcoin have never hit but at the crypto conference

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yes, it isn't right.

0

DeucePapi

9 months ago

This is very cool. But I feel like the stat of him never saying crypto once except for 75 times at the BTC conference isn't right

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

That's not correct, my friend.

0

JoebamaBiden

9 months ago

there's a higher chance of another assassination attempt than him not saying Border 15 times

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

x3 would be better

0

Arbiter-of-Truth

9 months ago

we need illegal immigrant 10+ times

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I sold early at 0.81 because I was too nervous about it and decided to cash in a good profit ;) Congrats to you for keeping!

0

Mrmarket334

9 months ago

borders boy, 50% odds nerve wrecking but odds paid off

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

No, probabilities do not work like that.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

9 months ago

This time crypto bros. Him never saying it only increases the chance for the next rally

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

There never really was, I'd say.

0

Shayku

9 months ago

Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Much comradeship, such plan. But wow, no comrades. So lonely. Many disappoint, such betray.

3

Betwick

9 months ago

Comrades so back

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

And i made some investments 😉 Good luck!

2

Eridpnc

9 months ago

bought some lotto tickets

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It's 2h, but it's likely not an interview-style event.

0

idfkanything

9 months ago

Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

😂 Don't give me nightmares 😉😉

0

bko

9 months ago

@rozi I think you're screwed.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Do you think Nate Silver or Eli are betting here? ;)

0

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I am such a pessimist apparently. Only betting 'No' on everything ;)

2

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, there are 140 organizations "participating" apparently. I doubt she will be naming them. I don't know if she says 'Latina/s' but I personally would be surprised.

1

idfkanything

9 months ago

Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Agreed 👍

0

Randomchooser

9 months ago

these brackets are fit for her rallies, for a one-time event like this, we need new words like it was for Trump's x space

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It seems that after 28x "border" by Trump yesterday, some folks went like, "Hey, Harris surely has to say it 3x at least!" Well, good luck on that one ;)

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I am actually not celebrating :) I don't know what will happen, and I might lose on this one. However, as an Eastern European proverb goes, "a big cloud produces little rain."

2

MisTKy

9 months ago

You're celebrating a little early

What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

She hasn't used the word 'racist' in neither of her rallies, DNC speech, CNN interview, and the debate. Unlikely to happen here too.

2

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Thank you too. I have better return on my money elsewhere, so happy to sell to you :)

0

Isaak👴

9 months ago

Thanks. Summer is over in Delaware.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Nothing ever happens.

1

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Your statement is incorrect - maybe that's why? 🙂

4

Gregorius

9 months ago

he literally said "transgender" in every single rally, what would make him not say it this time?

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Why is it easy? 🙂

0

n/a

9 months ago

Surprised not more people are buying no on “tampon” - easy money

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Don't say 'hop' before you jump.

0

Mr.Damon

9 months ago

who needs the spy when you have idiots to steal from

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Tomorrow is the day :)

0

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Nice 🙂 I've sent you a message on Discord 🙂

0

just.some.guy

9 months ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)

1

just.some.guy

9 months ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What if she says: "And Trump's VP candidate keeps on lying, and is surrounded by felons who got convicted!" ;)

1

xyz12Three

9 months ago

I deadass think she's going to say, "JD Vance is a Liar, and he is surrounded by convicted felons

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Now, during the last rally in Wilkes-Barre, people in the audience tried to force her to speak about Palestine by shouting stuff, and that's when she said 'ceasefire', which we now see here in this market. So, there's an odd chance that either the audience nudges her into saying 'Palestine' or that she changes her approach, but both are negligble in my judgement. Good luck and see you around :)

1

just.some.guy

9 months ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Hey :) Nice to meet you too. I noticed us betting similarly too, so I thought of you as a kind of ally :) As for Palestine here, the thing is that she purposefully has been avoiding the topic, with the exception of the DNC speech and the debate, when she had to address it.

1

just.some.guy

9 months ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Trump say during New York rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Because of the attempt on his life that Secret Service saved him from.

0

GreedyMacFear

9 months ago

Why is secret service so expensive?

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Frankly, you're facing uphill on this one. She never says Convicted Felon. She even deliberately didn't say it at the debate, when she had a chance. If you want to have better chances and really need to make a buck on this, I'd suggest you sell and swap 🙂

0

xyz12Three

9 months ago

this is it, boys, i'm back after this one

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

If you sell your Palestine shares, you'll increase your chances of not sucking at it this time 😉

1

just.some.guy

9 months ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Border x16. I just checked.

0

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Hi Mr. ⚰️, I see that you came to help me organize this market 😉

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Nate Silver 30 minutes ago: "But the headline is that the bold prediction I made after last week’s debate looks to be coming true: Kamala Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."

1

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Let's rather see what Harris says ;)

0

DrJackAttack

9 months ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Mrrrau

0

SusanWarren,HR

9 months ago

This lioness is ready and waiting..

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Why would I want to get out? 🙃 I'm going to sit on it until the rally, unless it goes to 0.95 or higher. Good luck to you 🍀

0

asshole

9 months ago

have read it😈

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Thanks for posting. That's from before she even became a candidate. And it's not from a rally. Anyway, "with no common sense"? Let's check back with each other after the rally. In the meantime, good luck! 🙃

1

DrJackAttack

9 months ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What live button?

0

BlackSky123

9 months ago

Anyone else hate the live button on this site? What's even the point?

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

With such massive advantage in the national polls, it's a matter of days until we flip 🙃 She's gained 3.5pp just from yesterday to today and is now at 43.5pp chance of winning.

1

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I am $6k deep in this market, so I will say stop for now, but if anyone is interested in unsolicited good advice, buy 'No' for JD Vance for anything below 0.9. Good luck :)

1

DrJackAttack

9 months ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

A Tarrot reading? ;)

0

asshole

9 months ago

have read it😈

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, and in which speech did she mention JD Vance?

0

DrJackAttack

9 months ago

JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Good luck 🤞

1

xyz12Three

9 months ago

this is it, boys, i'm back after this one

What will Trump say during New York rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Do not question THE ARBITER OF TRUTH.

4

SkillzThatKillz

9 months ago

He did in 3 of his last 4 rallies. The one he didn’t he said it 22 times

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It looks like I'm the Lion, I mean, the Liar King ;)

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

There is zero arbitrage opportunity, b/c you cannot sell a share you bought here on another market.

2

Ox8

9 months ago

Harris is favored on other big markets like Betfair. Pushing her down more here creates arb opportunities that boost her back up

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Not funny.

7

n/a

9 months ago

We need a market for a Springfield pogrom

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It's pretty much done. I offer risk-free 1% bonds for sale. Any takers? 🙂

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Please stop trolling the poor folks 🙂 They already threw their money into the ocean, let them be.

4

BlackSky123

9 months ago

Yes holders, learn how to vote on vote.uma.xyz!

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

As of yesterday, 60% chance of winning for Trump, and 40% for Harris, awaiting more newer polls.

1

GreedyMacFear

9 months ago

What are the newest numbers please?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

GG. And, i think it's the time for a screenshot with a quote from the Mountain Man: https://ibb.co/vXgJ1hf

9

·

Liked by BlueSky123, coconutPil... and 7 others

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I mean, there was a word "signed" from the beginning. If you scroll down, even before the additional context, i wrote that this is either a clear 'No', or we will have a dispute

0

BBNFT

9 months ago

They lose credibility every time they have absurd situation like this. Adding a new burden after the fake but keeping the same deadline is beyond logic. No transaction IRL can work like that

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Come on man, let it be 😉 Don't lure people into losing even more than they did.

0

BlackSky123

9 months ago

Imagine if it comes out in the morning that it was legit LMAO

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I can 🙂 Yes, the clarification doesn't give a deadline. So, there's a "legal" window for you. The thing is, it's very unlikely that this window is going to be used by UMA. If the affidavit looked any legit, sure, we might wait to see the connection to the ABC showed. But, that's not the case. It looks completely forged, so in all likelihood, the interpretation will not focus on the "window" you mention.

0

n/a

9 months ago

@CoffinFlop you're not engaging the argument either, struck a nerve?

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I'm not sure, but i think you get the first 750 back. The second 750 you lose it the UMA vote is against you.

0

Mountainman

9 months ago

So let me get this straight. If I dispute this I have to pay $750? And then I hear I would have to dispute twice so then I would pay $750 again?

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

The main market: It's a toss-up! This market: Nahh, kids are just having a little fun.

3

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Agreed.

0

ANudeEgg

9 months ago

@winner69 I can read fine. So how long do you think we should keep this open? Forever? Sorry, but UMA isn't going to allow a wild goose chase here. They'll most likely honor the end date. It's reasonable to expect that the fully authenticated affidavit needs to be released by the end date.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Oh, did i miss something? Happy to be corrected. What's the name of the person running the insurrection account, and who are they? 🙂

1

Mountainman

9 months ago

You keep stating anonymous account but that is just simply not true. But we both know that and you keep repeating lies.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

That's correct. But how do you know there is an affidavit at all? An anonymous account shared a document hiding the notary information. Why? Because any notary that was to be mentioned there, would say that such affidavit was never created 🙂

2

Mountainman

9 months ago

Do people realize that an affidavit is given under oath? If you lie you literally go to PRISON? All these Libs with their TDS want to pretend the Democrats aren't corrupt and they are giving their money away because of it. Sad, but I don't mind taking it hahaha

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It's been there for 2 days. Just scroll the comments down - we were discussing it just after it was added two days ago 🙂

1

BBNFT

9 months ago

That "additional context" was just added now, not on Sep 13. I have a screenshot without today

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I took a screenshot and will repost it after the resolution 🙂

2

Mountainman

9 months ago

As soon as people get back to their computers tonight this price flies. If someone buys $1000 worth we 2x instantly. hahaha. no liquidity at all here. I can not wait until midnight :)..... $18,000 in a day for me? I think that's what you call a pretty good day.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Likewise 🙂 I guess for now we're both happy 😊😉 GL too!

1

BBNFT

9 months ago

betting 91% chance this is a hoax is wild to me!

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Betting 9% that it isn't is wild 😜

0

BBNFT

9 months ago

betting 91% chance this is a hoax is wild to me!

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-plans-visit-springfield-ohio-haitian-migrants-conspiracy-theory-rcna171190

4

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Hey man, let them be 🙂

0

BlackSky123

9 months ago

Yes holders don't want to talk about the fact that the "signature" is literally a DRAWING OF AN ERECT COCK, just look at it! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXiDqJaWEAAI5hV?format=jpg&name=small

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, i even feel bad for making money on good folks who don't understand what's happening here, and how to distinguish between fake news and credible information.

0

Justifax

9 months ago

Once again car scams and sells to greater fools. Ever wonder where his pnl comes from, it's scamming you idiots.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

With all the love to you guys buying 'Yes', please don't waste your money. Please read the additional context.

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, maybe the "big dogs" simply read the rules of the market with understanding? The additional context states that "The name must be either be public on the affidavit, or confirmed by credible sources to have relation to ABC." There's close to zero chance that this is happening. If this was credible in any way, it wouldn't be happening through anonymous Twitter accounts and fake news organization facing trials for misinformation and manipulation. It's an easy win for 'No' holders, rather than any manipulation.

0

Mountainman

9 months ago

This is what happens every time a market with heavy odds turns against the Big Dogs who buy shit like this at .98 cents. They are fucked now, and will manipulate the market as much as they can to unwind as much as possible, but this one is done guys. Free money for "YES". Read the affidavit, it's legit.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Did you read the rules and the additional context? 🙂

0

Mountainman

9 months ago

You can read the full thing here: https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1835347010527822267. Yet another feast thanks to your main man MOUNTAINMAN!

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Easy money. There's no way that any credible person shows that the affidavit actually comes from someone at the ABC.

0

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Sounds more like what aenews would do 😉

0

Gena🐊

9 months ago

Also Car is a YES holder, he is the only one who could have playd the long game of pretending to be a MAGA supported, then convince PM to create this market just to make $3000

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So if you were a whistleblower at ABC, you'd definitely want this Twitter guy to be your platform. Why to go to the New York Times, right? 😂😂

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Crimean bridge is much more defended.

0

nagual

9 months ago

well this is likely lost since rules mention wreckage/intercepted damage as not applying to yes condition while moscow being the most heavily air defended target in russia

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Exactly the same with me.

0

ANudeEgg

9 months ago

I was going to slam No earlier until I read the ambiguous rules, but I believe that the clarification captures the most logical interpretation of the rules.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It said signed, so i thought from the start that it was required. I bought in only now though, because of the earlier ambiguity.

0

Lucky31

9 months ago

says nothing about a name being required in the original market

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Take a look at my comment from yesterday below. For me, the word "signed" in the original rules already pointed to what the additional context now says. I do think that the original rules were not very clear, that's why i didn't buy in, even if the market felt like an obvious 'No' in my interpretation of the rules. I'm with Polymarket on this one, having a non-biased opinion of not holding any shares. Though, i might buy something now.

0

Lucky31

9 months ago

how can we dispute this market

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Wow, i hit everything 😎🤩

1

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, I've added some shares too :)

0

mango-lassi

9 months ago

I'll go deep on this one, people being stupid here

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Got a full house, gg :) (with the exception of the $10 I threw out on 500 Abortion Ban at 0.02 just in case hehe.)

0

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Surprised?

0

MrNFT

9 months ago

These speeches are all carbon copies

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What is he going to say if they ask him? "No, I would never go there."? ;)

1

BlitzschnellCapitalAdvisorsLLP

9 months ago

https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1834656889054822711

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I'll agree on one - the reproductive freedom. It might be worth 0.05-0.10. You still bought for 0.15 though ;)

0

Randomchooser

9 months ago

i was disappointed about her yesterday

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

You sure? How did you calculate them? :)

1

Randomchooser

9 months ago

i was disappointed about her yesterday

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

She doesn't seem to be attacking him that way much.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Why are you bearish on Liar?

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, the "locks" are the opposite of what you're betting ;)

1

Randomchooser

9 months ago

I need a comeback here after my worst performance ever. Any locks guys?

What will Kamala say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Border x5 is a funny one. She said "Border" 6x at the DNC and 3x at the debate three days ago. So, there's some chance, even if it's not her favorite topic.

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Did he say it at the debate? I looked and couldn't find it. Could you help me? :)

0

Milktoast

9 months ago

a nickname for george stephanopolous he said at the debate

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Anyways, the rules are too unclear for me to engage.

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So, the guy says he's blacking out the signature for the protection of the whistleblower, meaning that the document, if realeased at all, will contain no visible signature. Either this is an obvious 'No' or we're going into a dispute.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So, the guy says he's blacking out the signature for the protection of the whistleblower, meaning that the document, if realeased at all, will contain no visible signature. Either this is an obvious 'No' or we're going into a dispute.

0

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Google.com

6

undertaker-fan

9 months ago

Guys, what time will this event be?

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

People in this market believe they are smarter than the people in the big market ;)

2

EdgyUsername

9 months ago

Why's it 74% when she's only 0.5% ahead on Polymarket?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I think more like 30 ;)

0

JohannesWalterReich

9 months ago

Trump hitting 15 borders in 20 seconds lmao

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)

4

Shayku

9 months ago

Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Someone spilled some blood, but the tampon sucked most of it, so all good.

0

Liero

9 months ago

What just happened on tampon

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Why would she ever agree to that?

1

Shayku

9 months ago

Kamala presses on. The setup is there for Trump to impose Fox. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1834320939321872743

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

The very unexpected has happened. I've just realized some gain on my 'No' on Crypto, added a bit more cash, and flipped to a "Yes'. I did not see that coming. But if it is to happen, it could be tonight :)

0

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, "focused speech on the local economy..." When he gave a focused speech at the Economic Club in New York a week ago, he mentioned Abdul only 5 times. I mean, I don't know if he's going to say it now. He sometimes mentions him, sometimes not. But the price offered is great for the odds - all that I want to say. Good luck!

0

05brownboy

9 months ago

that was a rally this is a speech focused on the local economy in that specific area

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

The last time Trump mentioned Abdul, it was at the debate two days ago. He mentioned him 3x.

0

gpsmatty

9 months ago

The last time trump said Abdul was at a Rally in Arizona, this event is in Arizona 🤞🏿

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It's a federal holiday, so no, it's not a workday.

0

goingsocial

9 months ago

Sloppy as always, Polymarket. Is Labor Day a "presidential workday" or no? I guess you just wait until it's an issue then arbitrarily tell UMA how to vote, so the rules are meaningless anyway.

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

60-100 minutes

0

midastouch

9 months ago

how long is the average trump rally?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Good luck! 🙂 (And, you'll need it. To be frank, your bets don't look too good to me, unfortunately 🤔).

0

CookedAlligator

9 months ago

wish me luck gents

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Take a guess 😉

0

AngHol

9 months ago

Why China 5+?

What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It is indeed a big punchline. And thank you for your donation 😉

1

SaulGoodmanEsq

9 months ago

Isn't "convicted felon" a big punchline?

What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

There is a difference between mentioning a "lie" and calling someone a "liar." Just saying 😘

0

IloveGreenOlives

9 months ago

Why is liar so low ?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Who else is in Team Abdul? 👳😆

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Rigging incoming :)

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I too hope that you can double ;)

0

NotJustKen

9 months ago

This market had Kamala drop from 70% to 30% 8hrs before the counting starts. You think it's not gonna swing back hard in that time? Buying Kamala now and selling at 60% will be the easiest double of your life. She doesn't even have to win.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

1.4M shares lying ahead of Kamala taking a lead at 49.3c :) This is going to be a fun evening!

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Might want to try to pour a few million to move the main market to realize the profit here. Others tried it a week ago, and failed badly.

0

Caligulas.dog

9 months ago

What does @Wanyewest69 know that others don't? He's been constantly upping his position

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It sounds like you haven't been around a week ago, when a similar attempt was done?

0

ACat

9 months ago

A lot of people are about to find out what happens if you offer 4:1 on too volatile an outcome. You set up a situation where bigger fish have all the incentive in the world to pull their orders off an orderbook for a few hours, then if those orders were ever serious they’ll even get to fill them at a better price at the end.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

50-Pence is offloading some of his Kamala shares. It doesn't look too good for Kamala here.

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

What don't you understand?

1

BigDoh

9 months ago

I’m stupid somebody explain the rules to me

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

At least, I did not buy 80k Trump shares just before the debate ;)

4

TheOneB

9 months ago

this dude thinks order books mean anything lmao

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Kamala's order book looks worse and worse, rather than better and better. I bought some Trump again :)

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This might be a very tight race. If Kamala's cap of now 660k shares (2h ago 800k) keeps melting, the path for her being in the lead would open more. Fun!

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

There is no arbitrage because you cannot buy Kamala here and sell at Predict, or elsewhere. That's why the gap between the prediction markets has persisted. Predict has historically been much more bullish on Harris. Also, there are different communities behind different platofrms, relying on different kind of information, there are different liquidities in each, etc. You cannot really compare that easily.

1

5to5000

9 months ago

I dont see how this market overcomes the ~$380M+ to be made in other prediction markets by arbitraging

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Because people in this market seem to believe that the main market is not efficient, and that the more news comes out today about the debate, the more Kamala will move up. So, I cashed in a little gain, and I keep watching when to enter again :)

0

5to5000

9 months ago

why did you sell then

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

There's a cap of 800k shares against Kamala at 0.497, while Trump has 90k cap at 0.495. At this arbitrary point, Kamala's pathway to being in the lead seems more bumpy. Let's see how it develops :)

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, the market is trailing, b/c Trump holders are trying to capitalize on their trades without waiting, it seems.

1

JJo

9 months ago

trump is ahead in the main market, this should be trading 50 50, if not trump favoured

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Not really. We've seen already that that is extremely hard in a market of the presidential size, because when you manipulate you create free arbitrage for everyone else, so it's really hard to move it for longer than a few moments. And given that the reward for manipulation in this market is low (2x), as compared to the last time (it was 10-20x, b/c Harris flipping was trading at 5-10c), I deem it a very low risk.

0

just.some.guy

9 months ago

With the main market basically 50/50 the opportunities for manipulation and counter manipulation during the 4 hour window are mind boggling. Will be wild!

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

20h

0

0xd5B361583e4333346bbE2c48e4700990546038a4-1721350540639

9 months ago

How many hours till the results

Biden at the beach for 5+ workdays in September?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

8 workdays in August (and 6 in July): Fri Aug 30, Thu Aug 29, Wed Aug 28, Tue Aug 27, Mon Aug 26, Mon Aug 12, Fri Aug 9, Thu Aug 8.

0

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Really? ;)

0

qur1l

9 months ago

Looks like there's going to be a debate. Fuck

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

No games this time.

0

babendums

9 months ago

im in for the whale games

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, I've just gotten some thanks to donations from conspiracy theorists 😺

3

MrNFT

9 months ago

Bonds for sale

Will Trump say a slur during the debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

And who decides what qualifies as a slur? I will skip this one - smells like trouble.

7

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I'm waiting for a tweet with a story about it 😉 Thanks in advance!

1

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

Interesting attempt

Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, Trump has 30% chance of winning the popular vote according to Polymarket, and 42% according to Nate Silver. I think it's a good bet you propose, but I wouldn't call it "the safest" by far.

1

Caligulas.dog

9 months ago

R-Presidency and DR popular vote + betting on Harris might be the safest bet in the history of bets

Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

scam

1

Garni

9 months ago

Republicans wins both https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5UCQOc0Zo8

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Done :)

0

Caligulas.dog

9 months ago

Sell with a 3 % loss then.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I can't see it happen. And yet I'm a little scared given my very limited experience 😅😎

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

McDonald's, here we go again 😂

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I'm pretty ready with my bets! I hope my lucky streak will continue 🤞 Good luck 🍀

0

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Find the guy obviously and ask him if he was an insider. (On a more serious note: JustKam once asked Aenews if he was behind the fake Twitter account that was run for weeks to manipulate a given market, and Anews admitted straight up ;)

0

MALDEMER

9 months ago

How would you resolve the sidebet?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yes, but there is no footage of the Q&A yet. It comes later today.

1

JanSobieski3

9 months ago

Has this finished?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Miła propozycja, ale nie, dziękuję 😊

0

Panzwalizka

9 months ago

should we open PL-poly club ? moznaby zawsze event przegadac

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I said in advance that we had a risk of disputes because of the poor rules. Anyway, in my book, we're betting on what he is saying at the town hall event, not in the thing they happen to transmit in the TV.

1

OmenOfLord

9 months ago

I doubt that counts. From what I understand this is the airing.

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

If they are airing the Q&A tomorrow, we have to wait with all the 'No's until then I guess.

3

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Nice! 🙂😎

0

DeucePapi

9 months ago

McDonald's son!

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This is the weirdest market in a while 😂

4

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Confirmed by?

0

CookedAlligator

9 months ago

the only ones confirmed are the ones I bought. The rest are mainly ruhmours

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

With the public. There are thousands people there.

0

Panzwalizka

9 months ago

is it recorded with the public or just interview? Will be the same dramma like with Lex

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I still cannot get over the fact that the video was hanging on Lex's homepage for some hours beforehand... Kudos to Kingfisher for checking.

1

JanSobieski3

9 months ago

At least the situation is more ambiguous than when kingfisher started buying everything out last time...

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

https://x.com/MarkNaughton9/status/1831454297638498698

0

Panzwalizka

9 months ago

wen start?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

You could make some money by being there actually :)

1

Car

9 months ago

no way traders are actually there lmfao

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Then start buying ;)

0

MrNFT

9 months ago

HE SAID MCDONALDS!

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Stop trolling. They cannot do it on YT, because no one would watch Fox News. But you can watch live stream on the Russian sites: https://rutube.ru/video/c6cc4d620b1d4338901770a44b3e82f4/

1

Chen1996

9 months ago

GUYS this is a live leaked recording of the TRUMP town hall happening RIGHT NOW: https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=PcEHsZJPK7Wx6WdY

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Thanks and good luck to you all too :)!

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

All right, I am ready! I hope he doesn't say 'illegal immigration' or 'Israel', but I hope he says 'McDonald's' - he likes to talk about it the last few days. If neither is true, I'll get a short end of the stick here ;) May the gods throw the dice in a favorable way!

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

All right, I am ready! I hope he doesn't say 'illegal immigration' or 'Israel', but I hope he says 'McDonald's' - he likes to talk about it the last few days. If neither is true, I'll get a short end of the stick here ;) May the gods throw the dice in a favorable way!

4

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Right, I don't remember if I saw it somewhere, or if I ended up adding that part. Actually, I do not know if that is likely at all. For instance, they could cut it b/c they have 60 min sot in TV and the event took longer, or perhaps they will just keep the Town Hall at max 60 min to fit with the TV schedule. I have no experience/knowledge of that.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

9 months ago

youre right although i couldnt find a source saying its edited before airing

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Anyway, remember to cancel all your bets after 5:30pm, EDT. Otherwise, you might be buying a lost bet, thinking that the thing hasn't started.

5

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It would be funny if Trump says something live and then it gets cut out from the edited version put on the Fox News. That would be a shit show, because whoever wrote the rules was not aware that the Town Hall is pre-recorded and edited (as exemplified by the rules giving the wrong time of the rally and not making the distinction between the recording and what is being said). Let's hope we don't get into bad disputes on this one...

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It would be funny if Trump says something live and then it gets cut out from the edited version put on the Fox News. That would be a shit show, because whoever wrote the rules was not aware that the Town Hall is pre-recorded and edited (as exemplified by the rules giving the wrong time of the rally and not making the distinction between the recording and what is being said). Let's hope we don't get into bad disputes on this one...

3

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, he said it 17x in a Q&A a few days ago ;)

0

Arbiter-of-Truth

9 months ago

If he says border 15 times I deserve to lose this money

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Just use Google, friend :)

0

eb..

9 months ago

are you sure this is going to be a recording? town halls are usually a livestream. where di you saw its a recording? I'm trying to stayaway from those lol

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Maybe you would do better if you trusted your intuition? ;)

0

BallzToTheWalz

9 months ago

I was about to bet the last few thousand i had left on Trump, then realized "wait, im so bad at this ... if I was gonna bet on Trump then I should actually just do the opposite" ... clearly, I can't lose now!

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

True on both sides.

0

YatSen

9 months ago

I panicked and sold my Trump. It's strange—how could nearly 500k shares accumulated in the top 3?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I mean, I doubt that there will be a live stream, if their plan is to pre-record it.

2

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This 5:30pm townhall will be recorded, edited, and broadcasted on Fox News at 9pm. I guess we're basing this market on the edited footage shown on Fox? Or, will there be a live stream online nonetheless?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This 5:30pm townhall will be recorded, edited, and broadcasted on Fox News at 9pm. I guess we're basing this market on the edited footage shown on Fox? Or, will there be a live stream online nonetheless?

2

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

https://polymarket.com/profile/0xf8ba34bf0e95d952d05b578bfbc0833f9242a286?tab=positions Popatrz tu :)

1

JanSobieski3

9 months ago

What do you mean?

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This is extremely likely to be rigged. I am out of this with some profit. See you guys. I'll watch how Kingfisher's positions behave after we see the interview.

2

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It looks it must've leaked.

0

eb..

9 months ago

seems very unlikely. looks like a price drop only. maybe a mistake. these are major talking points and topics of conversation

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Did it leak, or what's happening?

0

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Did Kinkfisher watch the interview? Why are they buying AI and Illegal immigrants at 0.89?

1

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He uses the timer to know how long the interview has been so far. That doesn't tell us anything about the relationship between the presence of the timer at the interview with Trump and how long the interview was. We don't even know if his particular timer counts up or down. Your point on other interviews being very long is a good one, though I am not sure how much the past informs the variance of this particular case.

0

sigh

9 months ago

Lex uses the timer to ensure interviews aren't too short. Here's the timer in a 4 hour interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwN8u6HFH8U (at 2:02:48)

Crimean bridge hit before October?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, I hear you, and the bridge has better air-defense than Moscow by far. The only way that Ukraine hit the bridge so far was through 1) truck-bomb, and 2) naval attack. The first one is pretty much impossible right now, and the second one much less likely. For example, they now put a bunch of bardges to block the way: https://english.nv.ua/nation/crimean-bridge-photos-russia-installed-30-barges-near-bridge-50436966.html

1

Skifish

9 months ago

They did hit Moscow. At this price I’ll take Crimea too.

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Might, might not :) I think this might be less systematic than you anticipate, with Trump's agenda on the day perhaps driving much of the variation, so I am surprised how much of your bankroll you put on this one.

0

sigh

9 months ago

4 percent of Lex's interviews are under 90 mins. I checked the last 200- there were 8: Randall, Brands, Collins, Zuckerberg, Netanyahu, Chomsky, Amon, Bourla. Also, Trump's interview with Elon Musk was 125 mins long, and Friedman has a similar interview style: he asks questions about every topic and allows the guest to do most of the speaking. Trump is gonna yap our ears off

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Ok 👌

0

Shayku

9 months ago

Why on the 4th?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

2020 debate you mention was organized by CPD and transmitted by multiple media outlets, including Fox News. That's very different from a debate hosted by Fox News 🙂

1

Shayku

9 months ago

If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Never in history was there a presidential debate on Fox. If she does poorly, Trump will agree to a debate in the "fake news" media to hit her again. If she does well, there will be too much too risk for her to go to Fox News. It ain't happening 😘😉

1

Shayku

9 months ago

If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

You're betting 1k on this and you don't know why the 4th? 😄

0

Shayku

9 months ago

Why on the 4th?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So you might need a few million to hold Kamala in the lead, not knowing if another bigger whale appears and just buys you out, making profit of you, and preventing Kamala from staying in the lead.

0

Qualitative

9 months ago

The worst part is the lower the price gets the more incentive there is to rig the market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So you'd be running an operation without any sense if you can succeed, risking tens of thousands dollars to make it happen. I don't see it remotely possible for anyone to try. (And if I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge my wrong judgement.)

0

Qualitative

9 months ago

The worst part is the lower the price gets the more incentive there is to rig the market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Sure, though you're assuming no one would like to counter the other way for their own profit. 400k would get you to Kamala in the lead for 5 minutes, and then everyone would try to buy Trump seeing that there was no underlying reason for the massive spike.

0

Qualitative

9 months ago

The worst part is the lower the price gets the more incentive there is to rig the market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Buy the inflated stock at a discount 🫠

0

sigh

9 months ago

the question is, if someone did throw $1m at pumping kamala, how would the other whales react?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Please assess how much capital you might need to invest to hold a Harris lead over Trump for 3h straight wit a starting negative difference of 3pp or so in a multi-million market. And then compare that with a benefit of winning in this market. Not happening, unles you want to donate your money to others.

2

Qualitative

9 months ago

The worst part is the lower the price gets the more incentive there is to rig the market.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I am so happy you're here :)

0

0xNabs

9 months ago

Getting ready for the bottom price on this one on the 4th and load up - chances are she will need more debates after her polls start tanking…!

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Are you trying to push the price down with this comment to buy more? ;)

4

YatSen

9 months ago

Someone accumulated 100k kamala shares, I don't know if he is ready to rig.

Crimean bridge hit before October?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

So the fact the they flew drones into Moscow doesn't increase the chance of a successful attack on the bridge, in my book.

0

Skifish

9 months ago

They did hit Moscow. At this price I’ll take Crimea too.

Crimean bridge hit before October?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It doesn't. My point is that they will not fly drones because there's no point, and flying drones is much easier and cheaper than trying to destroy the bridge with a naval operation, or a truck with explosives, etc.

1

Skifish

9 months ago

They did hit Moscow. At this price I’ll take Crimea too.

Crimean bridge hit before October?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

You cannot destroy the bridge by flying a drone into it though.

0

Skifish

9 months ago

They did hit Moscow. At this price I’ll take Crimea too.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Damn, I hoped he would not say it in the end. He talked so much around it.

0

Glover

9 months ago

Drill babyers can finally unclench their butts.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Thanks, makes sense :) Let's see if he says it for the third time then.

0

tunatyler

9 months ago

one was Comrade Harris

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I thought he said Comrade Kamala for the third time, but was one Comrade Harris, or did I mess something up?

0

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He talked about it yesterday without saying Colorado. You need to multiply the chance of him talking about it again with the chance of him mentioning the word. IMHO below 20%.

0

SaulGoodmanEsq

9 months ago

Very good chance he's going to mention the mainstream news stories of Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes in Colorado

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He did say it in Michigan yesterday though.

1

Donkov

9 months ago

He didnt say drill baby drill last night, right?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He once called Warren like this. It's very unlikely he says it again, but i decided to take a shot 🌻

0

efren1983

9 months ago

why pocahontas?

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

You're too nice to people 😉

0

Polyscam

9 months ago

You have to look at who is actually saying it. There are multiple speakers on some of these events. He said 13 times at Asheboro and 30+ times at Glendale.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Close one with 9x Border. Damn :)

2

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Pretty good! Except Border ;)

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

I am at 9 too.

1

Glover

9 months ago

I have it at 9, could be 10.

How long will Harris/Walz interview be?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, same here. It'd be super strange and open to mockery if the interview she finally gave was so, so short.

0

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

9 months ago

yea im leaning towards "18 mins" being crapola. originated from Jason fucking Miller

How long will Harris/Walz interview be?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

They have 1h slot reserved at CNN for this. Not sure what that means, but would be strange to have 30-40 min commentary for an 18-minute interview. https://edition.cnn.com/tv/schedule/cnn

2

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Why Colorado? Why Jesus? Could someone please explain? Thanks :)

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Yeah, fair point. But i lost 2/3 in my first bet on Biden (i bet everything), got smarter, and have tripled since. Anyway, let's see how things turn out here. For example, he didn't say Drill, baby, drill in his last 5 events.

0

Eridpnc

9 months ago

Personally, I like to trade based on the likelihood that trump will say it during his speech.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

But if so then you made some strange bets 😉

0

Eridpnc

9 months ago

Personally, I like to trade based on the likelihood that trump will say it during his speech.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Anyway, good luck however you are betting :)

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

The biggest bargain right now is Border x10 at 65-80. In all of his last 9 events, he said it more than 10x. Even during a small meeting with voters in a restaurant in Las Vegas a few days ago where he came to talk about 'no tax on tips', he said it ~20x or so :) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FamQipHjar0 Three days ago in Detroit, he also said it ~20x. I lost count after a while ;)

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

The biggest bargain right now is Border x10 at 65-80. In all of his last 9 events, he said it more than 10x. Even during a small meeting with voters in a restaurant in Las Vegas a few days ago where he came to talk about 'no tax on tips', he said it ~20x or so :) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FamQipHjar0 Three days ago in Detroit, he also said it ~20x. I lost count after a while ;)

2

Microphones muted during ABC debate?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Anyway, given how much Harris camp tries to negotiate for mics🎙️ on, i find betting No at 10-30 range a very good bargain.

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

BuckMySalls: Agreed. Anyway, your bets have positive expected return except the Comrade Kamala x3. It's a No until 0.57 per share, whereupon it switches to a Yes at 0.43 or less..

0

BuckMySalls

9 months ago

Quite funny that you guys look at CNN townhalls and think this isn't going to be partisan. Finally some value odds.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

People on Polymarket follow such news, but an average person doesn't. There's no point for him to talk about Durov.

0

FinkBig

9 months ago

Pavel Durov undervalued no?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He didn't hold a town hall since he came up with this nickname so your argument doesn't seem to hold.

1

xxxxMan

9 months ago

speech is different from townhall event my friend. Check his interview and townhall videos for clues. If you check, you will realize there is a method to his madness. Name calling to rally base but in interviews he doesn't usually say the word Comrade. He just says Kamala.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

My bets are pretty much ready :) I'm excited!

2

What will JD Vance say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

He said "Chinese" like 10x already ;)

0

What will JD Vance say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Polymarket overturned its own governance and interpreted the reality in a way that seems against the rules of the given bet. No surprise that a lot of people got very angry.

2

0xE42c9d2ef

9 months ago

Dude sits 16 hours a day on his computer whining about losing 130 bucks. He has no life

What will JD Vance say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Because he normally does not say it :)

0

MrNFT

9 months ago

Why is comrade Kamala so cheap

What will JD Vance say during Pennsylvania rally?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Probably, but Detroit is also a big manufacturing city, and he did not use the word "manufacturing" when he spoke there three weeks ago.

0

CinBizPro

9 months ago

Erie PA is a manufacturing and steel town. He's going to talk about China and manufacturing.

Pavel Durov released in August?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

And they might win this market ;)

0

mango-lassi

9 months ago

avg iq of YES holders is below room temp

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Spread of 1%. If you wanted to bet Yes on one bet, and No on the other, you'd actually pay 50c twice, so all good.

0

Agathocles

10 months ago

How can the Republicans be at 51% and the dems at 50

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

And I think not buying Yes at this price is a borderline fail!

2

TheOneB

9 months ago

Border 25 times seems like a easy no

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

When in the Arizona speech does he mention Fentanyl? I cannot find it.

1

LMNOP

10 months ago

Here is a summary of his word counts from the past two speeches (AZ/NC). He spoke for about an hour each time. Alien (8/1); Border (59/13); Border czar (2/1); Comrade Kamala (7/7); Drill baby drill (0/0); Fake news (4/8); Fentanyl (2/0); Marxist (1/4); MAGA (0/0); Tampon (2/0); World war three (0/2); We need a clarification if "make america great again" counts as MAGA. Leaving out Pavel since that's new news. Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Well, his last Town Hall in Ashville, NC was 75 minutes.

1

LMNOP

10 months ago

Yep. Rallies are typically 60 to 90 minutes for Trump. Town halls are 30 to 60 minutes.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"Harris would not agree to the FoxNews Debate on September 4th, but that date will be held open in case she changes her mind or, Flip Flops, as she has done on every single one of her long held and cherished policy beliefs. A possible third Debate, which would go to NBC FAKE NEWS, has not been agreed to by the Radical Left. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1828502530323779858

1

mr.ozi

10 months ago

He said today that he's coming to ABC on Sep 10. Nothing about Fox. Surprise? No. "“I have reached an agreement with the Radical Left Democrats for a Debate with Comrade Kamala Harris,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform, confirming the debate will be Sept. 10 in Philadelphia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/27/trump-harris-debate-sept-10/

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

He said today that he's coming to ABC on Sep 10. Nothing about Fox. Surprise? No. "“I have reached an agreement with the Radical Left Democrats for a Debate with Comrade Kamala Harris,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform, confirming the debate will be Sept. 10 in Philadelphia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/27/trump-harris-debate-sept-10/

1

Pavel Durov released in August?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Same thinking on my end. They would not arrest him if they didn't want a case against him. The risk I see is that the prosecutor's case will be deemed not sufficient for the court to issue a longer arrest order.

0

Car

10 months ago

I just dont see him getting out when he is accused of: Drug Dealing, Fraud, Terrorism, and money laundering. Police knows he is a flight risk and they have been searching for this dude for a long time.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Too early because the resolution was proposed before midnight, so RFK technically still had a chance to say that he withdrew. If this goes as Too Early now, it will go into No straight after, because he didn't end up saying anything else before midnight.

2

PolyMucket

10 months ago

Been reading on the UMA discord and a few guys there have said it would most likely resolve as P4 “Too early” meaning it needs more time for an outcome to be determined. But they are saying it needs the P4 “Too early” outcome before it can be declared - P1 “NO”. In short this is great for NO holders and going to be painful for “YES” Holders.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

This feels very manipulated post factum. I hope this goes to UMA.

3

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I don't think you read my comment? :)

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

Why did biden suspend his campaign? Is he still running?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

The context in which the word "suspend" is used is what matters. And how is one dropping, when one is so clear about wanting to win the election? :) That makes little sense.

0

mr.ozi

10 months ago

And a word on the word "suspend." When you withdraw, you'll say you suspend the campaign (like Haley or Desantis) to keep the funds available. However, if you pause and want to remain somewhat active, like RFK now, you'll also say that you "suspend" the campagin. So the fact that in other cases "suspending" meant "withdrawing" that doesn't mean it's the case here. Every square is a rectangle, but not every rectangel is a square :)

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Being in the race =/ thinking you can win. NYT and Washing Post, which I read, both do not mention "dropping out" but only "pausing" etc. Read my comment above about the word "suspend." Anyway, good night :) I am happy that you do not have shares here, because it's likely a dead cause, unless it goes to UMA and something funky happens. In a few hours, this market will trade at 90-95% for a No, or worse.

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

He said 5 times in the press release he suspended the campaign. He withdrew from swing states. He is not on enough state ballots now to reach 270. All credible reporting says he dropped out today. Delusional

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

And a word on the word "suspend." When you withdraw, you'll say you suspend the campaign (like Haley or Desantis) to keep the funds available. However, if you pause and want to remain somewhat active, like RFK now, you'll also say that you "suspend" the campagin. So the fact that in other cases "suspending" meant "withdrawing" that doesn't mean it's the case here. Every square is a rectangle, but not every rectangel is a square :)

6

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxNAdilyqow From 17:10

0

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and - NOT ENDING IT. My name will remain on the ballot in most states... I encourage you to vote for me! And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates wins 270 votes, which is quite possible... I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingential election." RFK literally hopes to WIN the election through the contigent election and ENCOURAGES people to VOTE for him. How's that dropping out?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and - NOT ENDING IT. My name will remain on the ballot in most states... I encourage you to vote for me! And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates wins 270 votes, which is quite possible... I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingential election." RFK literally hopes to WIN the election through the contigent election and ENCOURAGES people to VOTE for him. How's that dropping out?

5

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Sure, but it's just part of it. He chose to stay on ballots and actively asked people to vote for him. If you drop out of a race, you don't ask people to vote for you, or?

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

Suspension is what you say when you drop out of a race in politics. A billion examples of past cases if you do any sort of google search

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Washington Post: "RFK suspends campaign." NYTimes: "RFK suspends campaign. Mr Kennedy announced he was pausing..." Things that get paused or suspended can be restarted, that's not dropping out. I'm sorry Yes holders but he wants to have skin in the game to exert influence. That's why he still called voters to vote on him. If you dropped out, you don't stay on the ballot asking people to vote for you.

3

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

He invited people to vote for him, he said he was staying on the ballots, and yes - he's suspending the campaign, but not dropping from the presidential race.

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

To be honest, it feels like a weak endorsement. He didn't use the word "endorse" on purpose, to stay little ambiguous. So, it depends which definition of the word "endorse" we're going for. Historically, with Bernie resolution, RFK's speech would not qualify as an endorsement. With looser definitions though, it is an endorsement.

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

He stays on the ballots and asked to vote for him, while he also supports Trump. For me, that doesn't qualify as an endorsement. If you endorse someone, you want people to vote for him. Even Bernie market resolved against endorsement of Harris, although he had stated his support even stronger than RFK.

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Yeah, agreed 👍

0

Paganheat

10 months ago

Insane how low Yes is right now when all major new sources are predicting he’s gonna endorse Trump. Lots of market manipulators in these comments

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I just hope he doesn't speak about it at the conference at this point 😉

1

Car

10 months ago

Its literally a court filing reported by the AP. If Asociated Press isnt trustworthy idk what you want

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

They're saying that he will likely endorse Trump soon, not necessarily in this very conference.

2

Paganheat

10 months ago

Insane how low Yes is right now when all major new sources are predicting he’s gonna endorse Trump. Lots of market manipulators in these comments

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Doesn't sound like an endorsement.

3

Munners

10 months ago

https://x.com/NicoleShanahan/status/1827020725309653431?t=mL-I5_njrtn3_QwnntTqyQ&s=19

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In 2h

2

Jayhawk

10 months ago

Do we know when the announcement is gonna be?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"Meanwhile, there are still potential hurdles for the Kennedy and Trump campaigns as they weigh a potential deal. One source close to Kennedy, who has been briefed on the deliberations, said the third-party candidate’s stipulations could pose a problem for Trump’s team. “Bobby wants to bring people with him onto the Trump campaign, and this might be a deal-breaker,” the source said. Kennedy, 70, is also getting considerable pushback from the closest and most important member of his inner circle — his wife, actor Cheryl Hines — who “really does not want him” to back Trump, the source said." https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4842563-kennedy-trump-endorsement-election-chaos/

0

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Also, even if RFK endorses Trump at the Trump's rally, that does not qualify as a Yes for this market. Instead, RFK might resign from the race at his own meeting, and only endorse Trump as a surprise guest a few hours later at the Trump rally. That's a real possibility that would resolve this market to a No, which I don't think is priced in yet either. And of course, RFK might endorse Trump in a few days, after some more negotiations.

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Sure, could be. Either way, the question is of the pricing here :)

0

Slaylorswift

10 months ago

Smoke and mirrors.. gotta play to their base pretend they didn’t give up easy

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"About an hour ago @NicoleShanahan talks with Adam Carolla and said that nothing has been confirmed yet with Trump. Stating that Operation #WarpSpeed (Spearheaded by Trump) is a key point holding back potentially joining forces." https://x.com/PresidentRFK/status/1826947195020648611

1

Crimean bridge hit before September?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Yes

0

GreedyMacFear

10 months ago

Is vehicle loaded with explosives parked and detonated on the bridge (again) considered as a kinetic strike by drone?

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Why not signing?

0

X9504

10 months ago

What counts as a perfomance?

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

People are waking up to finally bet ;)

3

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Well, good luck! 🤞

1

AccountNames

10 months ago

I do not actually beleive she will perform. BUT a broken clock is still rigth sometimes, right? Hopefully this is the one. ahahahah

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

No news of arrests on Day 3. It seems to have been peaceful. That leaves us at around 70 arrests so far. I personally think it's less likely than the current odds that we will get ~30 arrests on Day 4, so I've just switched my bet to a No, from my previous Yes. Adjusting to new information :) Bet Yes if you like the odds for ~30 arrests on Day 4 are favorable. Good luck!

5

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

SlaylorGiftFromGod - obvious to me, obviously ;) But on a more serious note, I find the arguments brought by the No team to be extremely weak.

0

pootytherewardfarmer

10 months ago

Personally, I would have bet Yes but if there's one thing I learnt from past resolutions on ambigious markets like this: never bet against the whales. You look at the profiles and net worth/PnL of top YES holders and top NO holders, when this gets disputed, its obvious who will win the UMA vote.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

We will see who laughs last 🖤🙂

3

aenews2

10 months ago

Can't wait for Team Y to get sweaty hands after realizing they bonded a market that is fairly likely to resolve the other way

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I don't think it's about whales. With the Venezuelan elections, they actually had arguments given that the opposition had copies of official tally sheets. Here, it's different, because it's quite obvious that the arrested were protesting the DNC.

1

pootytherewardfarmer

10 months ago

Personally, I would have bet Yes but if there's one thing I learnt from past resolutions on ambigious markets like this: never bet against the whales. You look at the profiles and net worth/PnL of top YES holders and top NO holders, when this gets disputed, its obvious who will win the UMA vote.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

New York Times discusses how the protestors from the Israeli consulate wanted to walk towards the DNC but were not allowed: "A leader of a group that organized the protest, Behind Enemy Lines, criticized the law enforcement response and said demonstrators should have been allowed to march nearly two miles from the consulate to the arena hosting the convention. The scuffling began after demonstrators linked arms and pressed forward into a line of police officers. The police began arresting people and issued an order that people leave the area. “The intention was to march to the D.N.C.,” Michael Boyte, a co-founder of the group, said late on Tuesday night. “Instead of our people being allowed to march to the convention,” he said, the city had sent in police officers." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/us/chicago-dnc-protest-arrests.html

1

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

All the DNC major protests in 1968 happened between 3.5 and 7 miles away from the DNC venue back then (Lincoln Park, Grant Park, Old Town, Conrad Hilton Hotel). The Israeli consulate is 2.5 miles away. So unless you want to claim that all the major 1968 DNC protests were not DNC protests, your argument makes no sense.

1

🤺JustPunched

10 months ago

I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

What more evidence do you folks need? Here's footage of the protestors before getting arrested shouting "Shut down DNC!" and carrying signs against the DNC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18AdeRTKtLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oQAfDS7s20

4

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Say what? :D

1

Car

10 months ago

"Last night wasn't a protest" according to Chicago Police Department: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

They protest against Israel's war in Gaza. And they protest the DNC too. "Behind Enemy Lines Anti-Imperialist Resistance is currently waging a campaign to demand the City of Chicago cancel the Democratic National Convention (DNC)." "Week 2 will be focused on protesting the DNC" - Week 2 is now, btw. "Shut down the DNC!"

0

Car

10 months ago

First sentence: "If you’ve spoken out and protested against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza...,", They are protesting Israel/Gaza conflict. Not protesting against the DNC. Im sorry, but if you are standing in front of the white house protesting abortion rights, you are protesting abortion rights, not the white house.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

https://behind-enemy-lines.org/make-2024-as-great-as-1968/ just read this Car. This is the organization that held the Tuesday protest at the consulate.

1

Car

10 months ago

if the people arrested are protesting against the Democrats' policies regarding the conflict in Israel and Gaza (which they are), i'm disputing a YES proposal.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

The organizer of the protest where 70+ got arrested said in the protest invitation that the protest is against the DNC. The person speaking to the crowd during the protest called on the crowd for them to "shut down the DNC." They are clearly making the protest now because of the DNC and to influence the DNC on the topic of the war in Gaza. The proximity to the actual DNC doesn't matter as long as it's in Chicago. In 1968, the main anti-DNC prostests took place in Lincoln and Grant Parks, 6 and 4 miles away from the International Amphitheater where the DNC was held. The Tuesday protestors chose the Israeli consulate because they're protesting against Israeli actions, and Biden's support for them, trying to influence the DNC. Protests can have multiple aims at the same time, there's nothing unusual in that. The important part was that the Tuesday protest was also against DNC and was happening because of the DNC. We are yet to see if the arrests were in fact arrests and not detentions, but at least the lawyers representing the people claim so. To claim that the arrests are not in connection of protesting the DNC is a manipulation, and we can meet at UMA voting if someone believes otherwise. I'm happy to cash in $750 for your bond.

6

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"A group of pro-Palestinian, anti-Democratic National Convention protesters confronted Chicago police Tuesday during what began as a rally outside the Israeli Consulate downtown." https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-protests-today-pro-palestinian-anti-dnc-rally-planned-outside-israeli-consulate-will-affect-metra-riders/15209951

1

Codger

10 months ago

The protesters arrested on Tuesday weren’t protesting the DNC.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

And that's where 70+ people got arrested. So, clearly meeting criteria of the market.

2

Codger

10 months ago

The protesters arrested on Tuesday weren’t protesting the DNC.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"A man in Chicago Bulls hat, his face covered by a balaclava, called on protesters to “shut down the DNC.” The group, which is not affiliated with the coalition of over 200 groups that organized Monday’s protests, advertised the demonstration Tuesday under the slogan of “Make it great like ’68,” invoking the anti-Vietnam War protests that seized the city during the 1968 Democratic National Convention." https://apnews.com/article/democratic-convention-chicago-protests-war-gaza-f064683535bbbe93231d31ecc2dbafc7

1

Codger

10 months ago

The protesters arrested on Tuesday weren’t protesting the DNC.

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"Other demonstrators are even more confrontational: A group called Behind Enemy Lines calls the Democratic gathering a “genocide convention” and is promoting a protest on Tuesday under the headline of “Make it great like ’68.” https://www.rawstory.com/protests-at-democratic-national-convention/

1

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Yes, they were. The protest at the Israeli consulate on Tuesday was organized by Behind the Enemy Lines organization under the title "Make it great like ’68," which is a reference to DNC in 68 in Chicago. On their official website, they say: "A call to students and youth: Come to Chicago this summer and shut down the DNC!" which is the main title of their protest invitation. They clearly demonstrated at the Israeli consulate with the intention of shutting down the DNC and influencing the politicians at the DNC. Source: https://behind-enemy-lines.org/make-2024-as-great-as-1968/

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Yes, they were. The protest at the Israeli consulate on Tuesday was organized by Behind the Enemy Lines organization under the title "Make it great like ’68," which is a reference to DNC in 68 in Chicago. On their official website, they say: "A call to students and youth: Come to Chicago this summer and shut down the DNC!" which is the main title of their protest invitation. They clearly demonstrated at the Israeli consulate with the intention of shutting down the DNC and influencing the politicians at the DNC. Source: https://behind-enemy-lines.org/make-2024-as-great-as-1968/

1

Codger

10 months ago

The protesters arrested on Tuesday weren’t protesting the DNC.

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Sure, there's a chance for that, but perhaps 5% or so. The DNC loves publicity and speculation because it draws attention to the convention, and draws young potential voters interest, because super stars may appear.

1

TheCoconut

10 months ago

I just feel like this historic moment - first black woman nominee - it wouldn't surprise me if she performs. I got in cheaply, wish I'd bought more

Drag queen at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Free money :) There's just no way they'd want to give ammo to the Republicans this way. Drag queen on the DNC main stage before Bill Clinton or Kamala Harris is something else than Texas convention or things around it.

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

13

1

dogenjoyer

10 months ago

10/100 on day 1. most activists are waiting for kamala's speech. this is an easy win (screenshot for later use)

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

A curious situation. One guy, who generally makes loses, believes in Beyonce and Swift performing at DNC, owns 71% of all the Yes shares in this market and drives the No share price down. It seems like a great opportunity to buy cheap No shares to me, which is what I am doing, but I am also confused why others are not picking up the cheap shares with me ;)

2

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

It ain't happening, now or by the deadline on Oct 15. They will likely make a second debate on CNN/CNBC/etc.

0

mr.ozi

10 months ago

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-kamala-harris-not-participate-fox-news-debate-sept-4

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-kamala-harris-not-participate-fox-news-debate-sept-4

0

Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I was thinking about it and I agree that R presidency and D popular vote feels very cheap at 25c. If we believe the elections is going to be close to a flip (50/50), then given the electoral vs demograpgics distribution of votes, it is very likely that the Democrats will win the popular vote. So for Republicans to win the popular vote, they would need to win the electoral vote decisevely, which is not the outlook right now. So the R pres & D popular feels underpriced, as it assumes 50/50 chances of winning popular vote by Trump if he wins the elections.

2

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Keep dreaming guys 😉

2

Stavros-Jenkins

10 months ago

My thoughts are that Trump won't do more than 1 debate with Kamala unless she agrees to do a Fox debate. Buying Fox "Yes" and 2 debates "No" as a hedge play.

Who will speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Ah, it's only posted under Jill...

0

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I don't see any additional context posted?

Who will speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

I don't see any additional context posted?

0

GenericUser1234

10 months ago

With the newly added context lowering the bar significantly for any of these to be “Yes”, I suspect that buying “No” for anyone here at prices above 80 is extremely risky and random. This market was so poorly worded to begin with, the additional context completely changes the basis on which many here have been placing bets until now.

Who will speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

What post are you referring to?

0

Bidensupporter123

10 months ago

This is really interesting. Can def see this going to a UMA vote. From the DNC: "not only for those who will be part of the Convention proceedings every night at the United Center" "We want to broaden out the convention experience beyond the United Center". If Bernie instead of speaking at the arena does a speech at DemPalooza, then this will probably go to UMA for a vote.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Exactly. You can buy everything for 90%. I wish there was an option to merge all the Yeses and cash out. Then I'd organize this thing :P

1

wruk

10 months ago

Market says 10% chance of a negative number of debates

Who will speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

The convention happens across two venues, the primary one (United Center) and a secondary one (McCornick). The rules define that it needs to be a speech, not whether it needs to happen at the primary venue.

2

SusanWarren,HR

10 months ago

Bernie Sanders is free money. DNC website: "Official daytime party business, meetings, and briefings will be held at McCormick Place, North America’s largest convention center." Washington Post: "The daytime programing [...] will take place at the McCormick Place convention center [...] Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) are scheduled to address different groups at the convention center"

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Yeah, I've been following the war for years now, and i believe you fortunately will. It's highly unlikely that they lose all of it.

1

🤺JustPunched

10 months ago

Praying that I lose money on this one.

Maduro out before September?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Opposition had official voting results from the stations, so it's not that clear, unfortunately.

1

CheerfulPessimist

10 months ago

Hmm, didn't know you could stll access closed markets. Well, you're actually right. It says official information is the primary source. That sucks, and it erodes trust in Polymarket pretty substantially

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

🤣🖤

0

🤺JustPunched

10 months ago

Russia is a fake country that does not exist separate from Ukraine on old maps, and the Russians speak the same language as the Ukrainians, it is only natural for the Ukrainain army to attempt to reunify Ukraine and Russia. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Russia has been overrun by Nazis and needs to be denazified. And it is imperative that we support the Ukrainian army's attempts to denazify Russia.

Who will speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

She's a black woman that everyone likes.

3

Anesti

10 months ago

Why would Michelle Obama speak here? She has a relation to Biden not Kamala.

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

This is just too crazy.

2

Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

And what? 🙂 He'll be saying the same about her and the Fox debate.

0

n/a

10 months ago

"The ads, which will blanket major newspaper websites in battleground states where Trump is campaigning, starting with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, call the former president “afraid to debate” Harris, according to a news release from the DNC. The DNC plans to replicate the ads running in Atlanta on the websites of other major newspapers in swing states on days Trump will be stumping in those states. The ads will generally run the day of a Trump campaign event, but the first ads in Atlanta will run for two days, Friday and Saturday, ahead of a Trump appearance there Saturday, a DNC spokesperson said." - https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/briefs/democrats-step-up-pressure-on-trump-to-debate-harris-in-new-swing-state-ad-campaign/

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

@limitfinancial Yeah, that's conditional on Harris taking a lead. If she indeed does, then I'll reconsider the odds here. For now, feels underpriced.

0

0x243339432434324234

10 months ago

How do you factor into your analysis the notion of a post-convention bounce for the Dems that makes Donald feel like he needs the debate for course correction?

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

You're funny :)

0

Car

10 months ago

Lesson 3, dont trust anything Car says

Iran military response by Sunday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

they attack at night, so if Monday, then late on Monday

0

cheerio

10 months ago

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/04/israel-iran-top-us-general-middle-east-preparation-attack

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Please keep buying the very underpriced Yes shares 👍🙂

0

0xNabs

10 months ago

Kamala is going to make fun of him for backing out. She is going to start going down in the polls after the initial honeymoon phase, and be increasingly willing to do the Fox News debate, because she will need a good debate showing to beat him. Trump knows this, which is why the initial Fox News proposal was so outrageous. Just sit back and watch the odds go up for a yes - time is on our side.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate." Harris did not agree and will not agree.

0

WhaleHunter

10 months ago

https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1819799235392606234 I’ll see her on September 4th or, I won’t see her at all.

Iran military response by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Also, last time they attacked just after midnight, local time. It's 2:30am in Iran right now. Sunrise in 2.5 hours. I don't see this happening. Maybe in the next days.

6

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In April, it took them 12 days to conduct an attack. US sources say that it will take them days to prepare a response. We are 5 hours before the deadline and we're still trading at 90%. Interesting. I hope I don't get negatively surprised in the morning. Somehow I became the person with second most 'no' shares.

Iran military response by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In April, it took them 12 days to conduct an attack. US sources say that it will take them days to prepare a response. We are 5 hours before the deadline and we're still trading at 90%. Interesting. I hope I don't get negatively surprised in the morning. Somehow I became the person with second most 'no' shares.

4

Who will endorse Kamala?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

Well, if it was that clear, this market would trade much different.

2

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In politics, there's a concept of endorsing, which is different from a dictionary definition of what an endorsement means, and which is different from strongly supporting someone. Endorsing means that you said that you endorse someone, and therefore they can use it as part of their campaign. It acts as a signal to the endorser's voters, that their votee wants them to vote on the endrosee.

Who will endorse Kamala?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In fact, I believe the rules on Polymarket should be in general made bullet-proof clear. It creates unnecssary ambiguity. It would be easier if the rule stated that he needs to say the worse "endorse" or respond with a 'Yes' to a question whether he endorses her. There are many bets around where people argue what outcome is the correct one.

1

BigBetsBonanza

10 months ago

For all the holders, thank you for your comments because I am new to the platform and regardless this has been useful for me to understand the nuances to resolution here. As I’ve said I don’t have anything substantial at stake so it’s not a big deal for me either way, but it has been a surprise to me how down to the letter these forecasts can be. So honestly thanks for the discussion. I do think that Bernie has endorsed her at this stage given his latest statements, but I appreciate why people would claim this isn’t ‘formal’ enough. So, let’s see what happens!

Who will endorse Kamala?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

While Bernie said that he "fully supports" Kamala, which indicates strong approval and backing, the absence of a formal endorsement declaration means he has not made the kind of official, unequivocal commitment that the word "endorse" conveys. This distinction matters in political strategy, public perception, and media reporting. At this point, this market shouldn't resolve to a 'Yes'. And if it was clear for someone that he endorsed her, they would've issued a bond and proposed a resolution. So clearly, it is not clear enough to anyone.

1

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In politics, there's a concept of endorsing, which is different from a dictionary definition of what an endorsement means, and which is different from strongly supporting someone. Endorsing means that you said that you endorse someone, and therefore they can use it as part of their campaign. It acts as a signal to the endorser's voters, that their votee wants them to vote on the endrosee.

Who will endorse Kamala?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

In politics, there's a concept of endorsing, which is different from a dictionary definition of what an endorsement means, and which is different from strongly supporting someone. Endorsing means that you said that you endorse someone, and therefore they can use it as part of their campaign. It acts as a signal to the endorser's voters, that their votee wants them to vote on the endrosee.

3

Will Biden speak at the DNC?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-to-give-address-first-night-democratic-national-convention/

0

Iran military response by Friday?

mr.ozi

10 months ago

After the bombing of the Iranian Embassy in April, it took Iran 12 days to respond with rockets. I doubt they will respond within 3 days this time. They need to figure out what to do and how, if anything really.

7