#45
Rank
517
Comments
220
Likes Received
168
Likes Given
mr.ozi
1 week ago
Maybe you just have ADHD? 😊
Justifax
1 week ago
people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.
mr.ozi
1 week ago
Shaking, shaking, baby!
figman
2 weeks ago
No holders shaking in their boots
mr.ozi
1 month ago
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHell I know
Eridpnc
1 month ago
Why is this market above 5c?
mr.ozi
1 month ago
The rules don’t imply that an event before shouldn’t count. They just don’t exclude it explicitly - it’s an important difference. And i don’t remember any good examples, unfortunately.
Troof
1 month ago
Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Yes, we have fact check markets, and this isn’t one. Generally, unless otherwise stated, only events after market’s creation pertain to it, otherwise the market would be immediately resolvable and would make no sense. The rules were written poorly, again, and you suffer from that. I’m sorry.
Troof
1 month ago
Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
It’s not part of the rules, correct. It’s part of prediction markets implicit rules. This doesn’t suffice for Y.
Troof
1 month ago
Q: France loses visa-free access to any African nation in 2024? A: Yes, France, lost visa-free access to Namibia. Okay let's check the specific resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any African country, 1) where French citizens could enter without a visa as of August 19, 2024 ✅ French citizens could enter Namibia visa-free as of August 19, 2024 2) *announces they are introducing* or have introduced a visa requirement for French citizens by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET ✅ Namibia has *announced they are introducing* a visa for French citizens. That the actual visa restriction only takes place in 2025 in irrelevant. Time to switch side guys.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Nope.
greengasper
1 month ago
MMousse knows something
mr.ozi
1 month ago
are you either braindead or just braindead to ask that to a person with $300,000 PNL?
TRUCK
1 month ago
mmouse you are either braindead or just laundering money fr
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Wishful expression of a desire.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
It's pretty much done :)
mr.ozi
1 month ago
It's pretty much done :)
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Epic. Brings up the memories. Such a movie!
FUNDI
1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwIIDzrVVdc
mr.ozi
1 month ago
That’s why the rules are misleading and badly formulated. They deleted the clause, rather than added something.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
When did you become so reasonable? 🙂
Justifax
1 month ago
it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Sec 101 (1) was removed from the first draft, restoring the language that didn’t allow for a raise. I mean, the rules are super horrible - hence the confusion. I’d refund the whole thing, but the fact is that the part allowing for a raise was deleted after the first draft.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Yeah, it doesn’t. The raise is blocked elsewhere so you need a concrete wording in CR to allow for a raise. They did that in the first draft on page 15, but removed it later because of the pressure. Nicely explained here: https://x.com/MattGlassman312/status/1869391578420433169
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
It did 😇 Just check page 15 of the first draft, where they strike the reference to 118-47 in omnibus. That text is no longer to be found in subsequent drafts 😇
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
Oh, by default the pay raise cannot happen because of the provisions of the omnibus - that’s why they needed to strike in the CR for the raise to be possible.
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
1 month ago
In the first CR draft they stroke a provision freezing pay raises, meaning pay raises would now be possible. Upon pressure, they removed that provision that stroke the freeze from subsequent drafts, meaning no pay raise can happen. They removed it long before the deadline. The rules are written horribly, so I’d argue that this market should be refunded. But if needs to resolve, it can only go Yes 👍
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Ammunition storage
zxxxzx
2 months ago
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1866186196163903909
mr.ozi
2 months ago
What’s the source? :)
middleeastprincess
2 months ago
confirmed by the mother of the hostage: #BREAKING The mother of the Israeli hostage whose footage was released yesterday by Hamas said after meeting PM Netanyahu that the government is going to accept a partial deal, which “condemns those who will stay behind to death”
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Libertarian votes. He might not even really know who that is and what crimes he committed. And he hates drugs.
bung
2 months ago
Why wouldn't Trump pardon Ross if he said he would? Easy bet imo.
mr.ozi
2 months ago
lol
n/a
2 months ago
Rafal Trzaskowski is a leftist liberal and a puppet of Soros.
mr.ozi
2 months ago
If you assume 54%, 43%, and 4% and that gets you under 1.5 then you must assume a lot more votes still coming in than me 🙃
Astera
2 months ago
I can see why people are nervous with their position when data is now just dripping out (especially for the under 1.5% group) which creates uncertainty and second guessing from each of our own vote counting prediction patterns hence the odds flipping so much. That’s going to continue unfortunately as looking at this weekend’s period in 2016, about 300k votes were added over Saturday and Sunday while in 2020 it was about 200k so anything more than that this year for both days combined would be a bonus. On a positive note, while only about 110k votes were added yesterday (Friday), it is still breaking well for the Dems at 53.6% to 42.7% with the ‘Other’ now creeping up to 3.7% (as other counts can be deprioritised in the early counting) and in my model that gets us under 1.5%.
mr.ozi
2 months ago
You’re on the right side now! Worth staying for a while 😉
Eridpnc
2 months ago
I either flip no more times, or flip 10 more times
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Thinking about the implied size of your balls does not seem like a sound investment strategy 😜 Having said that, I am hoping to hold until the end, because it looks really promising as of now.
rektoplasma
2 months ago
just a reminder to take your profits
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Got you, thanks!
Flaner
2 months ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
mr.ozi
2 months ago
And also for me to understand, when you say 6% you mean that the current average of 52/46 in a given county would become 58/40? Thanks! 🙏
Flaner
2 months ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
mr.ozi
2 months ago
I think that would be a great way to approximate a seemingly structural difference between the overall voting averages per county and the very late votes.
Flaner
2 months ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Great, thanks. The thing is that 6% can be either very little or a lot. A very solid thing to do would be to recalculate your model using last weeks vote results per county instead an overall county average with an arbitrary bonus added on top (be it 0.5, 1, or 6). What do you think? 🤔
Flaner
2 months ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
mr.ozi
2 months ago
Is the 1% not little if we were to believe that the late votes are structurally different?
Flaner
2 months ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
mr.ozi
2 months ago
There is probably big enough correlation to make him better at this than any of us though.
Justifax
2 months ago
Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46
mr.ozi
3 months ago
Thanks. "Built the wall" wouldn't count though. He needs to say "build the wall."
n/a
3 months ago
How is build the wall so low? He has mentioned his building of the wall last few rallies
mr.ozi
3 months ago
I count on the garbage can...
mr.ozi
3 months ago
Did he? Which ones?
n/a
3 months ago
How is build the wall so low? He has mentioned his building of the wall last few rallies
mr.ozi
3 months ago
Don't listen to Padre. He did. In Traverse City three days ago.
big.mek
3 months ago
Has Trump ever said Nazi in the past?
mr.ozi
3 months ago
Not anymore - I sold to Domer. I don't trust them hawkish Israelis not to make another attack this year.
50Pence
3 months ago
anyone else experiencing adrenaline withdrawal since the October market?
mr.ozi
3 months ago
No, I’m even more on it! 🤣
50Pence
3 months ago
anyone else experiencing adrenaline withdrawal since the October market?
mr.ozi
3 months ago
"One of the last questions that Trump took was from Yaritza Kuhn, a 39-year-old Puerto Rican homemaker who lives in North Carolina. She asked Trump if he agreed with his wife’s stance on reproductive rights. Melania Trump wrote in her recently published memoir that she was staunchly pro-choice. Trump replied that he was anti-abortion in the same vein as the late-President Ronald Reagan and supported access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and a threat to the mother’s life. He also doubled down on his support for states deciding on access to abortion. In Florida, voters will decide next month on a proposed amendment that would codify abortion rights in the Constitution — an issue on which Trump says he will vote “no.” He emphasized that the Supreme Court’s ruling that overturned of Roe v. Wade, which regulated abortion at the federal level, had happened during his administration." Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article293303874.html
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I got 14 :)
skrrrr
4 months ago
mention of tax was 13, with "taxing" "taxes" "taxpayers" all included
mr.ozi
4 months ago
11x my friend
n/a
4 months ago
million did not hit, just rewatched the stream, im 100% sure
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Tax x13 + Taxing (queen) x1.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
xD good troll right here! :)
Eridpnc
4 months ago
"ing" like "ful" are totally definitely words. I am sure if you look at the precedent, you will find that UMA ruled in favor of "ful" as a separate standalone word that people use in the english language to communicate with each other.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks guys! That one was an exciting one. Million x11 was a narrow one. Next time!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yes, it is, indeed, on the No side though.
:xdddd
4 months ago
million 10+times is underrated
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This one is a fun one!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Prediction for round 2 - LSDP: +37, TS-LKD: +29. https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/2385084/rytas-po-rinkimu-kas-susikaus-antrajame-ture-ir-kas-gali-iskovoti-daugiausiai-mandatu
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Very different situations. Walz could've only meant 'teacher', given the context. Here, Trump could've meant Venezuela, or Venezuelans, or Venezuelan. We cannot be sure what he wanted to say, thus, we cannot conclude he was saying Venezuela.
Randomchooser
4 months ago
In the same situation one month ago UMA voted YES for Walz "tch" saying he was clearly meant "teacher" which it wasn't, why this time should be different with a word spoken clearer? Facts, not opinions.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I would invite some more doubt the other way ;)
WINNING
4 months ago
feel like UMA will resolve to yes, they don't care much about technicalities. If he meant to say it but didn't finish the word then that's a yes
mr.ozi
4 months ago
No.
J.D.K
4 months ago
I wonder if this can end up in a draw 50/50?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
xD We're not counting what he could've said, but what he said.
WINNING
4 months ago
feel like UMA will resolve to yes, they don't care much about technicalities. If he meant to say it but didn't finish the word then that's a yes
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The point is how many times did he say Venezuela. He said it twice, and then he said Venez once. That's it. No? 😄 We cannot count half-finished words that might've or might've not been the word.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I listened to every moment he says Venezuela/Venezuelan. There's no doubt. Venezuela x2.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
2x Venezuela, 4x Venezuelan (tar, prison gang, gang, and illegal alien)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
xD
Infringe
4 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/live/9V-KLYQ8Nmw?si=X3af1s3ttqrnP9Fz&t=1632 says the full sentence
mr.ozi
4 months ago
2x Venezuela, 4x Venezuelan (tar, prison gang, gang, and illegal alien)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Tax you got to pay after you die ;)
Mr.Market
4 months ago
whats death tax?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Damn, you're right!
BlackSky123
4 months ago
Are you certain it's for the rally in Reading, and not Scranton? Scranton for me shows 8x and no Chinese, but Reading shows China 9x and Chinese 1x.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
My software tells me 8x. And no Chinese. Hmmm.
BlackSky123
4 months ago
China 9 actually, but yeah it didn't hit.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Nope :)
ANudeEgg
4 months ago
I have China 10x
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I have 8x for Reading.
BlackSky123
4 months ago
That's for the Scranton one, it's actually 9x for the one in Reading, and 1 Chinese, but Chinese doesn't count.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Kamala x31, China x8, Border x11. Good night!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
China 8x
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I guess you see my point now even better? :)
DiabloCRO
4 months ago
Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Damn, i missed the sale...
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It did hit last rally, friend...
samuraimyth
4 months ago
No way he says border 30 times bruh it did not hit last rally
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Dude, you are on your way to lose all your bets.
BiggieSols
4 months ago
Where do these phrases come from? Who creates the market? Hi I'm new here.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
My mistake, he mentioned Helene once.
DiabloCRO
4 months ago
Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Btw. I changed my mind on Green New Scam :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Sure, he never named Helene, and simply referred to it as 'hurricane'. I think the odds are good that he will not name Milton either.
DiabloCRO
4 months ago
Hi Rozi :) may I ask for your point of view on your Milton - NO ? Milton being the biggest storm hitting florida in a century, how is it possible that he wont mention it?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Remarks and rallies don’t really differ in substance.
R13
4 months ago
Butler he did not say anything it was all about the assassination that day Walker was he making remarks in a plant event was slated in that manner and mint bill was never rally you can check it was again him giving remarks in a small factory about manufacturing this is a proper rally.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Odsiecz Wiednia?;)
JanSobieski3
4 months ago
You are welcome :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks for a great price on Green New Scam :) He didn't say it in 3/7 last rallies (Butler, Walker, Mint Hill).
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Already after the first vote, a few of us have been telling you that it's pretty much done already, but many of you did not want to listen. In addition to the strong logic of this going P1 after P4 was declared at first, we also had market rules (even if poorly formulated), which are more nuanced than the vibes you'll get from the news headlines or Wikipedia headlines, that you chose to rest your case on. There was another market for entry, which was created for the possibility of Israeli raids, but you treated this market as if it was about the entry. This market, however, was created for a possibility of an Israeli army invading Lebanon (think infantry and tanks, not a 3-hour overnight raids by small special ops teams). As per all the evidence, footage, geolocated imagery, and detailed reports - small numbers of tanks and infantry entered Lebanon first on Oct 2. That's why this market should've resolved No, and it did. Rather than complaining, I'd suggest taking a step back, and integrating possible learnings from this experience, especially around taking news headlines as a measure of what happened on the ground.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oki 😉
Phoenix777
4 months ago
just wait and see, how it will turnaround... ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I wrote a few long comments a few days ago explaining why this would in all likelihood resolve to No, asking folks not to invest into Yes at crazy prices. Some suggested that i was trying to push the price of No up, while i mostly felt sorry for people losing money by not understanding the context and the governance here. Well, I've tried, and i was mostly ignored. I think I'll just stay silent next time.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Chad is a big country, but mostly a desert. Not that interesting, really. I wouldn't advise travelling.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
To prevent fraud. You see that your personal votes are added. If all votes were revealed at once, you wouldn't know if your votes were not centrally altered.
FamilyCapital
4 months ago
what is the logic behind of having delay on reveal of votes rsult. why not to do that at the same time?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Chad is the new real Batman.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
That's going to be... impossible? ;)
Ferguson,Turd
4 months ago
Can someone please link me a different website w/ twice the liquidity and beter odds?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
191 voters (some votes are pooled).
BaruchAsulin
4 months ago
Dose yes stand a chance ?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Unfortunately, the media headlines have been quite misleading.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
For those who are curious about the No logic. We know of 70+ in-and-out raids between Oct 1, 2023 and Oct 1, 2024. That counts toward "entry." And we know that regular IDF troops first entered Lebanon on Oct 2, 2024, hence the "invasion" began only in Oct. What follows: Yes for September entry market --- No for October invasion market --- Yes for November invasion market.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
That he's cooked?
Donkov
4 months ago
What did he mean by this?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
At least I don't go around offending everyone that doesn't agree with my perspective.
McLarry
4 months ago
Rozi, worthless fraud, calls himself a statistician just because he knows what a median is, LOL. How about some real mathematics?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Please believe in what you want to believe and keep your hope - that's super cool - but do not necessarily bet money on it. Not at this point.
144
4 months ago
Some of us believe the truth will prevail despite early appearances
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This is going strongly in the direction of No after 7% of votes and 17% voters revealed their votes, with 83% siding with No. And the Yes is still going strong on buying more shares. This is a fascinating case for a psychology paper.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Shayku, very smooth. Pumping Yes, switching to No at the beginning of the reveal phase.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It does, but there was no military offensive until Wednesday, so it doesn't matter if the intent was there. Anyway, I prefer to measure the intent by the action, even if it preceds it.
Shayku
4 months ago
I can't believe I have to say this, but intent precedes action.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
No shit, sherlock ;)
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
November closed days ago bruv
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Voting is still on for 2.5h more.
FamilyCapital
4 months ago
BTW, is voting stage closed? we waiting for reveal, or they still decide our destiny?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
And one thing for sure, the median will change a lot once this market is resolved :D
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
You are our median, car.
Car
4 months ago
Woah
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Actually, the word "invade" is even more relevant than "intent" here, given that the No crowd argues that raids are not enough to constitute an invasion. Also the word "sources" is also more important here than "intent," with that the primary sources from the rules say no invasion before the deadline.
shouldbealright
4 months ago
Imagine having $600k at stake on the semantics of the word "intended" lol. Love you, Chad, but jfc I'm nervous for you too
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Sure, but as per the market rules, we need both 1) the invasion and 2) the intent behind it. So, even if we were to assume the intent was there, the invasion did not commence, because raids are not enough, especially if they have been happening 70+ times since Oct 2023, as disclosed by the IDF.
denizz
4 months ago
I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I like you trolling this time :D
Car
4 months ago
Maybe next time, YES scammers!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, we have no evidence that that's what they wrote.
McLarry
4 months ago
That is why they have submitted the complaints to the UN. On October 4, yes, but they say it started on September 30. So they obviously admit it
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He Denizz. The thing is that they might've changed their mind in the meantime. What if due to the US pressure, let's say, they abandoded their invasion and stopped after the raids. In such a case, we wouldn't be able to say that there was an invasion. In other words, the raids themselves, even if preperatory for an invasion, cannot constitute an invasion. The market rules stipulate that an actual invasion to control territory must've commenced on Sep 30. It did not. We only had limited in-and-out raids within 500m of the border. Cheers, friend.
denizz
4 months ago
I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, the Wikipedia you quote writes: "On 1 October, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon in a series of small scale raids intended to precede a broader ground invasion." Which satisfies the September Entry market but not September Invade market.
McLarry
4 months ago
wikipedia. remember time zones
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oct 3: Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oct 2: Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras (...) The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period (...) Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers.
Phrank
4 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oct 1: It is not immediately clear where the 98th Division began operations in southern Lebanon (...) UNIFIL source told Western media that the Israeli forces have staged “sporadic raids” into Lebanon but have not “remained on Lebanese soil.“ (...) Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon.
Phrank
4 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Sep 30: It is unclear where or if the IDF has entered southern Lebanon in force at the time of writing.
Phrank
4 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Doglover: with pleasure! https://www.understandingwar.org/
Phrank
4 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, those time-stamped sources, including official announcement from the IDF, confirm "limited raids" on the night of Sep 30, that came in and left. First footage of invading troops entering Lebanon comes from Oct 2.
BigMike11
4 months ago
We've got dozens of time-stamped sources that say yes.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The Institute for the Study of War is a good source for the Oct 2. Also, there's zero footage of invading troops from before Oct 2. You cannot really invade a country and have no one see it, or?
McLarry
4 months ago
The invasion was on October 2 with 0 sources confirming this of course
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Because in September we had only in-and-out raids, and proper troops invaded only on Oct 2. That's why. As per information from the IDF, the United Nations, the United States, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.
Phrank
4 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
mr.ozi
4 months ago
If it is, then what Chad has been doing is 4x worse.
PolyRig-Fried
4 months ago
therealbatman bought 151,771 No at 48.6¢ ($73,758) - is this a case of "i can distort reality with money"?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Don't say hop before you jump 😜
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
4 months ago
domer getting doomed and its glorious
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, i actually think that this voting is better than some random dude in an office deciding on his interpretation.
Ferguson,Turd
4 months ago
Remember friends whether you WIN (red shares) or LOSE (green shares). We can all agree on how terrible this process is
mr.ozi
4 months ago
GG :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
You mean UMA, father?
DopeFrancis
4 months ago
No holders have turned from the face of God.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Gambling addiction :)
McLarry
4 months ago
If Chad tells his therapist that he lost all his money because he bet that Israel would invade Lebanon, will he be treated for gambling addiction or for a psychosis? Serious question
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I am thinking the same. I should've predicted that Chad would want to dump more money into this pot. I'll be smarter next time ;)
mango-lassi
4 months ago
Price keeps getting better and better, why did I buy earlier :/
mr.ozi
4 months ago
:D Good humor :)
PolyRig-Fried
4 months ago
Funny, a prediction market that is predicting the past. And the second final review. We need 2 new bets: can Polymarket predict the past and is a final review really a final review or can there be more than one final review?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hi friend :)
mango-lassi
4 months ago
Great minds think alike
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Chad keeps pumping into the abyss. I am not whether to cry or lough at this point.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I mean he has a point though. If UMA votes appear to be inconsistent without new information, then how can one trust the Oracle?
RememberAmalek
4 months ago
This is a reductive and simplistic interpretation of what's going on here
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Other than in-and-out raids, Israeli troops started entering for combat on Oct 2. Plenty of footage of that happening. No footage of anything else than raids from before. Here's your impossible answer.
Justifax
4 months ago
Fundamentally - if it didn't start on Sept30th, when the headlines said it did, when does it start? Answer that question without making up rules.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I like this one 😎🎈
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I've explained in detail below, take a look at my comment some hours back.
TheGoober
4 months ago
What does early request mean in the UMA vote?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I mean, in all likelihood the Too Early crowd will vote No. It is just extremely unlikely otherwise.
TheGoober
4 months ago
Current UMA vote: 80.14% Early Request, 0.11% No, 19.75% Yes. Doesn't Early Request mean this market will resolve No since this is the final review?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Read my comments down below - I explained in detail :) Cheers.
securebet
4 months ago
what does it mean early request??
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, this is so factually incorrect that it's even funny that someone wrote that :D
shouldbealright
4 months ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Border x23, Million x14. I have no more cash, so I give you the numbers ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I bought at 25 then again at 73, and now I sold everything at 80. That's the break-even of risk/reward for me at this point.
informed
4 months ago
No voters? there is there is less than 48 hours left, up to the point of Israel response how do you think probability will change?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
How did I miss such a sale? Damn.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yeah, that pretty much settles it :)
Dropper11
4 months ago
Not only did UMA vote P4 for this market, but they also voted P4 for the November market, which was proposed on October 1st. Given that vote, they still think that by that date there wasn't enough scale to call it an invasion, so this is extremely likely to be voted as NO.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I can't speak for Domer, but i was betting No because i thought the ground invasion would happen after September 30. I sold everything at a loss on September 29 because of the signals in the Israeli media that the invasion was beginning. Then i bought No again on October 1 when it became clear that these were only raids and that the actual invasion was still to happen.
McLarry
4 months ago
Now that you've answered me and stopped ignoring me, tell me, you never thought Israel would invade on foot, did you? What a lucky coincidence for you, that the market is still going no. More luck than sense, or was there some help here?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I think we're pretty much talking to a void. I'm slowly giving up on trying to help people who are most likely throwing their money away 💰
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The final review timeline indicates by when the voters can reveal the votes they posted before, and therefore by when we will get a final decision on the current dispute. Given that the vast majority of votes have already been revealed, we know that the decision is P4 (too early). The voting began Oct 2, 00.01 UTC and finished Oct 2, 23:59 UTC, so basically the votes were committed yesterday. After this process is complete, we will be able to propose a resolution again, which will happen as soon as possible, so in 13h. The point here is that between the last voting window and now, we received no new substantial information that could change how token holders would vote. The vast majority voted on Oct 2 that they believed the market criteria were not met to justify Yes, hence the Too Early vote - you cannot vote No before the deadline of the market. So, my understanding is that it's safe to assume we will be seeing No in the next roundd of voting.
PBet
4 months ago
so the 'final review in 13 hours' timer doesnt symbolize the end of the final review but instead the beginning?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
DFK: Well, UMA has already voted yesterday and it's extremely unlikely that they would shift their vote, that's the point. And yes, I believe they care about voting "right," which I think they did. I am in the camp saying that the invasion started only on Wednesday, if at all, and before that we only had in and out raids, which do not meet the criteria of this market. Anyway, friend, good luck to you.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
4 months ago
With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Abdenriel: Normally, sure, but actually, there's plenty of liquidity in this market, and I almost have no stake (relatively). I literally feel bad for people not understanding the governance here, and making decisions based off that.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
4 months ago
With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Because he will say it ;)
Vaas
4 months ago
Why is missile defence shield so high?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yes, exactly, too early because it was proposed just before the official deadline, so in principle Israel could've still invaded before the deadline. So, for technical reasons, the token holders could only vote Too Early or Yes (or No, if they did not pay attention, which a few voters did).
PBet
4 months ago
so 'early request' means P4, too early to say and there will be another extention of the resolving period?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
4 months ago
https://prnt.sc/U8AmVxZGYwtD This was the last vote, and you can see almost 0% commitment to NO and 15% commitment to YES.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
https://vote.uma.xyz/
PBet
4 months ago
where can I see the votes?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I hope they are just a very rich person, and they're fine. Because betting more than 10% of your bankroll into such a disputable market would be pretty nuts.
jayminho
4 months ago
@chad are You Okay bró ??
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
4 months ago
With a consensus of credible reporting both on the night of Sep. 30 and the days after, it's obvious that the initial reports of "raids" and "incursions" being reported were in fact the beginning of the Israel ground invasion. This market must resolve YES.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
And they had to vote P4 rather than No, because the resolution was proposed before the deadline. That's the crux of the logistics here.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yeah, the invasion started on Wednesday. Someone proposed too early.
PleaseBeStupid
4 months ago
What happens if consensus is p-4 too early at time of proposal but there is consensus that the invasion has happened post-proposal? We’re talking a matter of hours difference. Curious how UMA resolves “too early” resolutions for markets that still have ample time such as this one?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
With Nikki, was that after the vote?
truthteller
4 months ago
guess it's over unless polymarket steps in and clarifies
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Not at this stage.
truthteller
4 months ago
well there's a possibility polymarket clarifies fwiw
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I'm starting to get more trust in there being reason in this system. Good.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Such different bets, my friend.
Eridpnc
4 months ago
Tampon Y is the new Tampon N
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It looks like someone sold No, rather than anyone buying.
BiggestBidenFan
4 months ago
Who bought?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Why would anyone buy No in this market? Because Israel doesn't want to establish control - is that the argument? They are already controlling areas near Maroun Al Ras el for example. Just curious 🤔🙂
mr.ozi
4 months ago
OK, OK doglover69.
McLarry
4 months ago
And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He actually argued in favor of this market resolving to a Yes in the UMA dispute, although he holds 54k No shares. I doubt you would have a fraction of that integrity.
McLarry
4 months ago
JustScam is a mangy shyster who has licked blood from the Venezuela market he rigged and now tries his scam on every market.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
No man, this market is a Yes. September market is a No. Don't create conspiracy theories just to suit yourself.
McLarry
4 months ago
And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I'm just telling you what's going to happen in the UMA vote. If it's a Yes, it's a Yes, if it's Too Early, it will be No short after. You can keep your comentary about the events on the ground for another thread.
ncap
4 months ago
What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Because that would mean that the voters felt that there was not enough evidence for Yes by the time of the resolution being proposed. Given that no more new information in favor of Yes came in that little time window between the resolution proposal and midnight of Sep 30, P4 means that in the next vote we will see a No. In other words, P4 is a formality that needs to be done before we get a No. To sum up, Yes is a Yes, and Too Early (P4) will be followed by a No.
ncap
4 months ago
What does the decision p4 mean (too early), who wins or does everybody get the money back?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It could be.
BiggestBidenFan
4 months ago
(Reasonable Assumption - it's not a No limit buy order at 15c)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Only raids before, in and out, which doesn't meet the criteria. Today, however, they seem to have entered to (at least temporarily) control some Lebanese territory.
x3x3
4 months ago
Yes and the operation started before September 30 ET
mr.ozi
4 months ago
In practice, it is.
x3x3
4 months ago
No and too early is not the same...
mr.ozi
4 months ago
We have first evidence of an Israeli invasion actually beginning - **two days after the deadline**. Today, Israeli troops entered one village (sic) - Maroun Al Ras.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yes, unfortunately. That's why I'm not buying more of No.
LastChanceSaloon
4 months ago
Are we beholder to the intelligence/opinions of UMA voters? Is that what this will boil down to?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
A source from the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said the Israeli military has staged some “sporadic raids” across the Lebanon-Israel border but **its troops have not remained on Lebanese soil**. The assessment that Israel has not yet launched a full-scale invasion was supported by two other high-level Lebanese security sources. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The Institute for the Studies of War: The IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has not yet engaged IDF units in Lebanon as of the time of writing. **Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-1-2024
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The rig crowded confused Trump with his running mate.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Doesn't matter.
FromTheTrenches
4 months ago
I sold my fire cause i Thought He said it in the context of fire , like a fire in the theater , which is not fire of firing someone
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It looks like you haven't.
getgood
4 months ago
Some of you have never listened to JD Vance and it shows
mr.ozi
4 months ago
No, because they need to declare a war against Iran, not an internal state of war. Very different things.
Nicky-Boi
4 months ago
Curious if the "state of war" Israel entered after Oct 7 would have resolved to Yes here. If not, I don't seem declaring war here if they didn't even officially do so after Hamas attacked them.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The outcome depends on UMA, so what it is actually worth, or what the market believes it's worth doesn't matter.
McLarry
4 months ago
buy more. if 10c is the fair price you should buy way more
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It's actually Chad who moves the market single-handedly.
McLarry
4 months ago
“JustKen” moves the markets single-handedly. If he bets on one side, many others follow, such as Car. In this respect, something has changed, everyone now trusts him to push it through.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The last time Israel declared war on another state? In 1948. Good luck to the Yes holders.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This market would trade 5-15 for a Yes if it wasn't for Chad. I'm not taking more risks here, but i do think it's a great opportunity for potential money from Mr Chad.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Just raids, which doesn't meet the criteria.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It seems like nothing really happened yesterday after all.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
@GNS I can't speak about the others, but yes, I expect that, unless things escalate significantly. They benefit from staff on the ground for diplomatic and intel purposes.
Toma
4 months ago
easy bet
mr.ozi
4 months ago
1) Makes no sense. 2) Could happen if esacalate a lot.
n/a
4 months ago
US embassy is only 10 miles from recent bombings near the airport. It can be inferred that Israel and the US will have some sort of agreement not to bomb near the embassy, but this may be voided as Hezbollah fighters clue into this and inevitably move bases closer to the north. I think there may be two outcomes here: 1.) The embassy is evacuated due to a heads up from Israel getting ready to bomb Hezbollah targets who have moved in nearby, and 2.) the embassy is evacuated due to public uprisings/protests by the Lebanese who are angry at Israel and their ally (US). If you remember last year, when Israel bombed the hospital in Gaza their were riots outside of the Beirut embassy. Imagine the riots now that it is their own country being bombed, not just Palestine.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Agreed :)
Toma
4 months ago
easy bet
mr.ozi
4 months ago
And I mean, they were not entering Israel without the guns, or were they? ;) If you have a commando coming with guns, I mean, give me a break.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
A perspective from the side: This market was created in case Israel military entered Lebanon in small-scale missions, rather than invading Lebanon (that's what the other market is about). Militarry boots on the ground entering Lebanon to achieve military objectives should qualify as a combat operation. I do not think the condition is for fires to be shot. You can have a combat operation in which you are not being engaged. Anyways, this is clearly disputable, and I do not know if Polymarket will post a clarification resolving this market, or if UMA will vote, and if so, which way.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I divested from No due to the risk, so this is a fairly impartial opinion: If there had been any combat encounters, we probably would have seen footage from local Lebanese residents or Hezbollah trying to garner support and mobilize. Therefore, what likely happened were small reconnaissance scouting missions, which, to the best of my judgment, wouldn't meet the criteria. Good luck to all.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
For disclosure, I had 3k of 'No' until 26h ago when the news of those raids came out. I don't like being in dispute territory, so I backed out from this bet. It's funny that we have a second wave of reaction to the same news, just delayed by a day.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I am just saying it is open for interpreation whether it meets the criteria. Perhaps when more details and/or footage emerges, we will know more.
abdendriel
4 months ago
They’ve been raiding Lebanon 🏴‍☠️
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Btw. this is all news from 26h ago, just shared more widely. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-may-have-already-begun-small-raids-on-hezbollah-in-south-lebanon-reports/
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Let's go!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I did 😅
Remontada
4 months ago
My only regret is I didn't buy more...
mr.ozi
4 months ago
7
n/a
4 months ago
8 border now
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Border border border fun 😉
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yes, thank you. You shouldn't have.
PanosMariolis2001
4 months ago
nice donations
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I have never bet straight No's on Trump. Let's see! Have fun everyone :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It doesn't.
OddsMaker77
4 months ago
Does Missile Defense Shield count as Missile Shield?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
The reason the reps are being asked about it is because Harris said in numerous places that she supports the billionaire minimum tax, which is the unrealized capital gain tax.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Just add this with Harris's own tweets on supporting the billionaire minimum tax, which is the same thing, and the case for No really falls apart - I really believe that, independently of my shares. I had No shares yesterday, but I read more into the topic, and changed my mind.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Only in combination with Harris tweeting that she supports the "billionaire minimum tax."
Betwick
4 months ago
If this is the best evidence for Yes you guys are in trouble
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Here's another one: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831512664507314308 For me, this is explicit enough. They are clarifying what they're supporting. It's Harris's official Twitter account.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Her official channel clarified that Harris's tax on unrealized capital gains would apply only to people with "with at least $100 million in wealth." https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1827073628162130283 So, let's go through this. 1. Harris says that she supports Biden's tax package, which includes a "billionaire minimum tax," which is administration's idea to tax unrealized capital gains of people with $100M in wealth. 2. Trump sees that and says that Harris idea to tax unrealized capital gains will kill small business owners. 3. Harris's official Twitter channel debunks Trump's statement by saying that the tax on unrealized capital gains "applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth." 4. Harris explicitly says that she supports a "billionaire minimum tax" in both her policy document and on Twitter. That makes her support even more explicit.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
If anyone wonders why 'No' is relatively cheap and 'Yes' relatively expensive, here's some context: https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1288919166262448249
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He said it 60x on Aug 22 during a speech in Arizona on border security.
Apsalar
4 months ago
there's a part of me that truly believes that if we made a border 50+ bracket for a rally, Trump would still find a way to hit it
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He says Reagan in almost all his rallies the last month.
DARKRAI
4 months ago
Why is reagan so high?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Unfortunately, very unlikely.
gintas
4 months ago
hopefully this time i can hit something
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Stop manipulating.
Car
4 months ago
Congrats to haterzloserz
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Because it's likely he's going to say it.
DARKRAI
4 months ago
Why is reagan so high?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
What matters is what are the chances of him saying it. And those are at least 80%.
Sit
4 months ago
what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Nothing. And? :)
Sit
4 months ago
what does trans have to do with tax and manufacturing
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Trans is heavily underpriced. Here's free advice :) Good luck!
mr.ozi
4 months ago
This market: Is 50Pence right, or everyone else?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
50Pence, what makes you buy so much?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
50Pence, what makes you buy so much?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I hear you. Yeah, better to count oneself ;) We both got our lessons, though yours is much tougher. It reminds me of me selling 3k shares of Beyonce's performing at the DNC for 0.03c, after media wrote that it was "confirmed" that she would perform. I learnt not to sell for pennies when there's still even a tiny chance.
BlackSky123
4 months ago
I listened to about half the speech, then did other shit. Didn't really count anything myself, just listening for single whole words. I blindly trusted the market price and what others were saying on discord. When Trump was walking away, millions no was over 95 cents iirc, so I figured it didn't hit. Turns out, there was some mass delusion going on, and Johannes was the only one who counted correctly. During the yes pump, I thought everyone was mistaken and sold a bunch of shit because I am a greedy idiot, and ended up losing 7k. Would've made a couple hundred tonight were it not for that. This was a lesson learned for me the hard way, I guess. I'm still up over 2k since joining here in August, but this really sucks. Thank you again Johannes for actually knowing how to count.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
And why wasn't I paying attention?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
What the hell happened here. I was counting Millions during the speech and I stopped counting at 12x. After that, I haven't paid any attention to the market. I've now verified the numbers, and the total ended up at 14x, and indeed there were 10x after just 17 minutes of the rally, and 12x after 30 minutes of the 83-minute rally. How on earth did everyone get so confused?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I checked now. After 17 minutes of the speech, we were already at 10x Million, and after 30 minutes, we were at 12x. Ended up at 14x. So, I was correct.
DonaldinhoTrumpito
4 months ago
That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Maybe I made a mistake, I haven't checked yet, but I tried not to count billions :)
DonaldinhoTrumpito
4 months ago
That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I stopped counting Million at 12x and that was 2/3 into the speech.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He said transgender, which counts. Transition doesn't count.
iLoseUSDC
4 months ago
Does "transition" count as trans?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I'm pretty ready with my bets. Good luck to everyone :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
P&L or not, he's got a point ;)
n/a
4 months ago
would like to thank the crypto bros in advance❤️
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yeah, agreed.
Donkov
4 months ago
We desperately need plain Comrade over/under market, instead of Comrade Kamala. Trump is trolling us
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, I am planning on making some by betting 'No' ;) I am already at 50% profit on my No on x15 - a bit more, and I sell. Otherwise, it's worth keeping for 0.05 a piece.
gpsmatty
4 months ago
bro betting no on the border is throwing money away
mr.ozi
4 months ago
As if whether it's actually "too late" mattered?
Shayku
4 months ago
Trump says it's too late, but historically, at this point in the election process, the debates would not have started. Only ONE TIME in history was there a debate this early in the process. In 1980. Normally, there would still be 3 debates ahead of us. Also, never in history has the VP debate been the 'last word'. Does Trump want to hand that to Vance? Really? There's plenty of time for Trump to negotiate 2 more debates, one on Fox, one on CNN or NBC.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Not all rallies and events served as markets on this platform. Anyway, why don't you bet if you believe in your data and analysis? ;)
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
if you guys check the old mention markets with function closed market on poly, Crypto/bitcoin have never hit but at the crypto conference
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Yes, it isn't right.
DeucePapi
4 months ago
This is very cool. But I feel like the stat of him never saying crypto once except for 75 times at the BTC conference isn't right
mr.ozi
4 months ago
That's not correct, my friend.
JoebamaBiden
4 months ago
there's a higher chance of another assassination attempt than him not saying Border 15 times
mr.ozi
4 months ago
x3 would be better
Arbiter-of-Truth
4 months ago
we need illegal immigrant 10+ times
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I sold early at 0.81 because I was too nervous about it and decided to cash in a good profit ;) Congrats to you for keeping!
Mrmarket334
4 months ago
borders boy, 50% odds nerve wrecking but odds paid off
mr.ozi
4 months ago
No, probabilities do not work like that.
0xE42c9d2ef
4 months ago
This time crypto bros. Him never saying it only increases the chance for the next rally
mr.ozi
4 months ago
There never really was, I'd say.
Shayku
4 months ago
Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Much comradeship, such plan. But wow, no comrades. So lonely. Many disappoint, such betray.
Betwick
4 months ago
Comrades so back
mr.ozi
4 months ago
And i made some investments 😉 Good luck!
Eridpnc
4 months ago
bought some lotto tickets
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It's 2h, but it's likely not an interview-style event.
idfkanything
4 months ago
Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/
mr.ozi
4 months ago
😂 Don't give me nightmares 😉😉
bko
4 months ago
@rozi I think you're screwed.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Do you think Nate Silver or Eli are betting here? ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I am such a pessimist apparently. Only betting 'No' on everything ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, there are 140 organizations "participating" apparently. I doubt she will be naming them. I don't know if she says 'Latina/s' but I personally would be surprised.
idfkanything
4 months ago
Latina and black +3 Yes might be undervalued considering "grassroots groups including Latinas for Harris, Win With Black Men and Republicans for Harris are participating." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-oprah-winfrey-hold-virtual-event-aimed-battleground-states-2024-09-19/
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Agreed 👍
Randomchooser
4 months ago
these brackets are fit for her rallies, for a one-time event like this, we need new words like it was for Trump's x space
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It seems that after 28x "border" by Trump yesterday, some folks went like, "Hey, Harris surely has to say it 3x at least!" Well, good luck on that one ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I am actually not celebrating :) I don't know what will happen, and I might lose on this one. However, as an Eastern European proverb goes, "a big cloud produces little rain."
MisTKy
4 months ago
You're celebrating a little early
mr.ozi
4 months ago
She hasn't used the word 'racist' in neither of her rallies, DNC speech, CNN interview, and the debate. Unlikely to happen here too.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thank you too. I have better return on my money elsewhere, so happy to sell to you :)
Isaak👴
4 months ago
Thanks. Summer is over in Delaware.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Nothing ever happens.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Your statement is incorrect - maybe that's why? 🙂
Gregorius
4 months ago
he literally said "transgender" in every single rally, what would make him not say it this time?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Why is it easy? 🙂
n/a
4 months ago
Surprised not more people are buying no on “tampon” - easy money
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Don't say 'hop' before you jump.
Mr.Damon
4 months ago
who needs the spy when you have idiots to steal from
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Tomorrow is the day :)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Nice 🙂 I've sent you a message on Discord 🙂
just.some.guy
4 months ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)
just.some.guy
4 months ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
What if she says: "And Trump's VP candidate keeps on lying, and is surrounded by felons who got convicted!" ;)
xyz12Three
4 months ago
I deadass think she's going to say, "JD Vance is a Liar, and he is surrounded by convicted felons
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Now, during the last rally in Wilkes-Barre, people in the audience tried to force her to speak about Palestine by shouting stuff, and that's when she said 'ceasefire', which we now see here in this market. So, there's an odd chance that either the audience nudges her into saying 'Palestine' or that she changes her approach, but both are negligble in my judgement. Good luck and see you around :)
just.some.guy
4 months ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hey :) Nice to meet you too. I noticed us betting similarly too, so I thought of you as a kind of ally :) As for Palestine here, the thing is that she purposefully has been avoiding the topic, with the exception of the DNC speech and the debate, when she had to address it.
just.some.guy
4 months ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Because of the attempt on his life that Secret Service saved him from.
GreedyMacFear
4 months ago
Why is secret service so expensive?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Frankly, you're facing uphill on this one. She never says Convicted Felon. She even deliberately didn't say it at the debate, when she had a chance. If you want to have better chances and really need to make a buck on this, I'd suggest you sell and swap 🙂
xyz12Three
4 months ago
this is it, boys, i'm back after this one
mr.ozi
4 months ago
If you sell your Palestine shares, you'll increase your chances of not sucking at it this time 😉
just.some.guy
4 months ago
It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Border x16. I just checked.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hi Mr. ⚰️, I see that you came to help me organize this market 😉
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Nate Silver 30 minutes ago: "But the headline is that the bold prediction I made after last week’s debate looks to be coming true: Kamala Harris is moving up in the polls enough that the model is converging back toward 50/50 in the Electoral College."
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Let's rather see what Harris says ;)
DrJackAttack
4 months ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Mrrrau
SusanWarren,HR
4 months ago
This lioness is ready and waiting..
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Why would I want to get out? 🙃 I'm going to sit on it until the rally, unless it goes to 0.95 or higher. Good luck to you 🍀
asshole
4 months ago
have read it😈
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Thanks for posting. That's from before she even became a candidate. And it's not from a rally. Anyway, "with no common sense"? Let's check back with each other after the rally. In the meantime, good luck! 🙃
DrJackAttack
4 months ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
What live button?
BlackSky123
4 months ago
Anyone else hate the live button on this site? What's even the point?
mr.ozi
4 months ago
With such massive advantage in the national polls, it's a matter of days until we flip 🙃 She's gained 3.5pp just from yesterday to today and is now at 43.5pp chance of winning.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
I am $6k deep in this market, so I will say stop for now, but if anyone is interested in unsolicited good advice, buy 'No' for JD Vance for anything below 0.9. Good luck :)
DrJackAttack
4 months ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
A Tarrot reading? ;)
asshole
4 months ago
have read it😈
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Well, and in which speech did she mention JD Vance?
DrJackAttack
4 months ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Good luck 🤞
xyz12Three
4 months ago
this is it, boys, i'm back after this one
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Do not question THE ARBITER OF TRUTH.
SkillzThatKillz
4 months ago
He did in 3 of his last 4 rallies. The one he didn’t he said it 22 times
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It looks like I'm the Lion, I mean, the Liar King ;)
mr.ozi
4 months ago
There is zero arbitrage opportunity, b/c you cannot sell a share you bought here on another market.
Ox8
4 months ago
Harris is favored on other big markets like Betfair. Pushing her down more here creates arb opportunities that boost her back up
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Not funny.
n/a
4 months ago
We need a market for a Springfield pogrom
mr.ozi
4 months ago
It's pretty much done. I offer risk-free 1% bonds for sale. Any takers? 🙂
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Please stop trolling the poor folks 🙂 They already threw their money into the ocean, let them be.
BlackSky123
4 months ago
Yes holders, learn how to vote on vote.uma.xyz!