#1594
Rank
41
Comments
12
Likes Received
8
Likes Given
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
but most importantly for the resolution of this market ;) 16th Dec 2020, 263k write-ins https://web.archive.org/web/20201216190945/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2020 -
5
Monka
2 weeks ago
22 Nov 2021 - 263 610 write-in ballots(https://web.archive.org/web/20201122025402/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) 24 Feb 2022 - 337 353 write-in votes(https://web.archive.org/web/20210224210751/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/)
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
so basically, you can conceive a scenario in which by 17th of December the third party vote is at like 1.97% in that page, and maybe in February it goes over 2%, fine, but it would be too late for it to count towards the resolution of the market
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
tks but I dont understand what you are talking about; forget write-in conversions to candidates;have you checked the link I sent? By resolution date the third party vote was 1.89%, if you look at final results it is 1.95%
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
yes sounds good, I would suggest a market for total turnout with 0.5m increments maybe, or 1m increments
0
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
wow latest update from california was almost 700.000 votes with 5.14% others. It's hard to believe but my model still underestimates the 3rd parties. might even go above 2.1%.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
why not buy more of that market then? You have three times the size on this one
0
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
wow latest update from california was almost 700.000 votes with 5.14% others. It's hard to believe but my model still underestimates the 3rd parties. might even go above 2.1%.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
the thing is then, would you rather buy votes over 155m or third party over 2%? I think it's much more likely to have turnout over 155m and third party below 2% rather than turnout below 155m with third party over 2%. Anyway that's my book; I see you are going all in on both turnout and third party
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Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we stop at 155 million vote, third party need 11%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I struggle to see why this is better value at 40%, compared to turnout over 155m at 50%
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0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
wow latest update from california was almost 700.000 votes with 5.14% others. It's hard to believe but my model still underestimates the 3rd parties. might even go above 2.1%.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
do you think it's possible or feasible for third party votes to go over 2% with a turnout below 155m?
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0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
wow latest update from california was almost 700.000 votes with 5.14% others. It's hard to believe but my model still underestimates the 3rd parties. might even go above 2.1%.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
1
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
The No's are always repeating their flawed logic of thinking about dumps in a linear way. That's not how it works, there will come "dumps" with 100% third party votes. Do you really think that major blue cities like Chicago or LA have 0 write-ins?
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
'you can buy turnout to be over 155m at price below 50%' I meant
0
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
Also what's interesting that people don't separate between states or blue and red areas. It's very easy to see that blue areas have around double the 3rd party votes compared to red areas. Almost all of the outstanding votes are in deep blue states like washington, oregon, california, illinois and even in red states the missing votes are from blue cities. They latest updates on nbc: washington 5.26% 3rds (2390 votes), oregon 100% 3rds (124 votes), california 4.61% 3rds (6378 votes)
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
mate, you can buy turnout over 50%; check the market; I am just basing this on market prices. I set turnout to be 155m which again is generous given current market pricing. And you still haven't given me an answer regarding a boatload of write-ins likely coming in later than resolution date
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0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
Also what's interesting that people don't separate between states or blue and red areas. It's very easy to see that blue areas have around double the 3rd party votes compared to red areas. Almost all of the outstanding votes are in deep blue states like washington, oregon, california, illinois and even in red states the missing votes are from blue cities. They latest updates on nbc: washington 5.26% 3rds (2390 votes), oregon 100% 3rds (124 votes), california 4.61% 3rds (6378 votes)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I can show him an offer for 100k shares, but quite higher, sth like 70%
1
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
2 weeks ago
I don't have much confidence it will hit 155, but 48c now seems a bit underpriced.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
it's more like 3m left according to the market, so 9% needed for this to become a yes
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cunxia
2 weeks ago
The third party is still 200,000 votes away from 2%. Assuming there are still 5 million votes left, this means that out of those 5 million votes, they need to secure 300,000 votes, which is 6% (200,000 + 500,0000 * 2%).
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I still don't understand why you all guys seem to think that this year all write-ins will be added before resolution date
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cunxia
2 weeks ago
The third party is still 200,000 votes away from 2%. Assuming there are still 5 million votes left, this means that out of those 5 million votes, they need to secure 300,000 votes, which is 6% (200,000 + 500,0000 * 2%).
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
You need 9% of remaining to be third party votes by now. That assuming 155m total turnout, which is generous given this:https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election
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0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
Also what's interesting that people don't separate between states or blue and red areas. It's very easy to see that blue areas have around double the 3rd party votes compared to red areas. Almost all of the outstanding votes are in deep blue states like washington, oregon, california, illinois and even in red states the missing votes are from blue cities. They latest updates on nbc: washington 5.26% 3rds (2390 votes), oregon 100% 3rds (124 votes), california 4.61% 3rds (6378 votes)
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
Have you checked when those were added to the resolution soruce in 2020? Have you checked the date of resolution? (17th Dec) More than 100k write-ins added later than what we care about in this market :D
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0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
The No's are always repeating their flawed logic of thinking about dumps in a linear way. That's not how it works, there will come "dumps" with 100% third party votes. Do you really think that major blue cities like Chicago or LA have 0 write-ins?
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
it's 1.864%?
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MageGold
2 weeks ago
1.93% for now.Looks like a end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
tks for your comment. '3rd parties are more attractive than in 2020 so expect higher growth' Here, do you mean Stein, RFK, etc? Cause those are counted at regular pace, right? My understanding is that it shouldn't impact growth now. It's all about write-ins pretty much at this point afaik.
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
have you actually noticed when the write-ins were added in 2020 at the resolution source? (Answer: 30% of the write-ins added after Dec 17th); You mention Alaska, but that's maybe 2-3k write-ins, you need over 230k to make this market a 'yes'. Relevant states are Cali, NY, Texas, Masachussetts... I did the math for all states and I see how you can get to 250k additional ones. I can also see how you fall short at 200k. I think it's a coin flip. (Well it would be a coin flip if all write-ins would magically get added on time, I don't see why that would happen given how many months it took in 2020)
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ChrisV
2 weeks ago
Well that was a very unpleasant position to unwind. I didn't want to say anything before now but I suspect that the reason Nate is predicting 1.7m Other votes is that he's counting, you know, votes. The things Atlas is counting are not votes. You can't, for example, actually vote for Cornel West in California (something WindWalk mentioned earlier), because he's not on the list of registered write-in candidates. You can tell write-ins for him are not votes, because 20 million Californians could hand one in and West would receive zero electoral votes. Write-ins like this will not appear in the certified vote count, this Atlas guy is going to go dig them out of the precinct results afterwards and add them to his site. In Alaska (another state yet to report write-in "votes"), write-in votes for President are not a thing at all under state law and this guy still has write-in vote totals listed in 2020. Personally I don't think vote tallies should include things other than votes, but that's the resolution source. People still tracking the vote dumps don't get it. Write-ins are not going to appear in them for a lot of states. They're going to get dug out at the end and pasted on top of everything else. I'm not sure why this didn't seem to happen in 2020, but it logically has to happen this time. I don't know what's going to happen as there is a lot of uncertainty, but I ran some numbers and it looked to me in the ballpark of a coinflip.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
On another note, turnout estimates keep going down fwiw. From 156M, to less than 155M now according to polymarket (very liquid market)
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
That said, I might be missing something. I am just a random guy checking public data at home; but I did take into consideration everything you guys said in the comments to support your bull thesis. Please enlighten me with what I am missing, I am sure there must be details I am overlooking :)
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
So according to my analysis I have: Scenario A, everything gets counted in time, unlike 2020, then it's a coin flip. Scenario B, counting pace similar to 2020, one third of the write-ins not counted by then; seems like NO is a winner then
0
RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I spent some time doing analysis as @WindWalk2 had recommended. I checked the 50+ states. I did check what's the current number of write-ins, what was in 2020, what was in 2020 around this stage of the counting, etc. I get that IF (massive if) all the write-ins were counted in time, then the difference would shrink between 0.12% and 0.16%. So it feels like it would indeed kind of becoming a coin flip, althoguh slighlty skewed towards no.
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RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
by 17th of December (resolution date) you can expect write-ins to be quite lower (around 100k) than it will be months later when everything gets counted. Check 2020 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20201219075530/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
If Texas.... ok, that's 22k = 0.015% Basically what you are telling us is that you have accumulated your maximum size and are looking for a market pump to be able to scalp it. The thing is, with 1.5M might be tough but you definitely have some time so maybe you are able to scalp it all before the market resolution :)
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WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Notice how Write-ins in Florida are through the roof compared to 2020? They are at 41,691 in 2024 vs. 24,785 in 2020. Why might this be? One big reason is that people in red states like Florida that wanted to vote for RFK, but can't because he's not on the ballot, are writing him in. So what does this mean for Texas? If Texas sees the same increase that Florida did (~68%), you're looking at 22,698 write-ins from Texas.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
fair maybe. Do you have some historical data from 2020 closer to 96% counted, or 98% or whatever? tks
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I don't have such big pockets to take so much risk. I just see you losing money on every market you bet on, and I thoguht this might be a good set-up for you to try to scalp some and make back some money :)
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Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
In other words, 'Other' went up 0.17% with 9% of votes remaining. Now you need it to go up by 0.16% with less than 4% remaining.
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Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
In the screenshot that was shared 'Other' went from 1.78 (91.1% counted) to 1.95 (100% counted) counted). If I extrapolate you are still out of the money. My question is, are you hoping for a pump to scalp it or are you gonna hold and most likely end up with 0?
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
from that screenshot, what was the % of write-ins vs others?ers?
0
Betwick
2 weeks ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
sources?
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Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
I have a massive position, I don't know what am doing tho. Can someone school me on why my position is great/sucks? what are the most reputable analysts saying?
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
did you compute the 4.13% manually or can you see historical updates? tks!
0
Betwick
2 weeks ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
2 weeks ago
how many votes do you think there are left? I see you also hold the under 155m
0
Betwick
2 weeks ago
Not to scare the No holders, but the percentage of 3rd party votes in the last 1.7m votes was up from the 1.8% average to 4.13%, if that keeps rising at the same rate could get very close indeed
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
3 weeks ago
why is the number different?
0
Monka
3 weeks ago
with 95.3 percent of the votes counted, the candidate received 1.83 percent of the votes. How much does he have to collect remaining to reach 2 percent? Answer: approximately 5.5% of votes. That's impossible
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
RobXK
3 weeks ago
where do you see 1.83%? I see more like 1.6% right?
0
Monka
3 weeks ago
with 95.3 percent of the votes counted, the candidate received 1.83 percent of the votes. How much does he have to collect remaining to reach 2 percent? Answer: approximately 5.5% of votes. That's impossible
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
RobXK
3 weeks ago
what's your estimate of Edison Research estimate for total voteS?
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UnlimitedMarketAbuse
3 weeks ago
The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
RobXK
3 weeks ago
You guys are forgetting all the votes to independents, people are just adding Trump + Harris votes lol. less than 150m is already impossible given Cali etc
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Arizona Senate Election Winner
RobXK
3 weeks ago
'in terms of' * 'instead of'
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RobXK
3 weeks ago
People look at the current result and they have not done the homework instead of maths and projections based off mail ballots and counties.
Arizona Senate Election Winner
RobXK
3 weeks ago
People look at the current result and they have not done the homework instead of maths and projections based off mail ballots and counties.
2
Trump ends taxes on tips?
RobXK
3 weeks ago
You guys are completely missing the behavioral change that this policy would trigger. Every business incentivized to ask for tips for employees and lower salaries. Basically sell service 'x' dollars cheaper and ask for 'x' tip
0