#69
Rank
408
Comments
180
Likes Received
309
Likes Given
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
Glad to know you are 1/50 sure lol :D
BitcoinLover69
2 weeks ago
Rfk no bros coping HARD. Tell me, which 4 repubs are gonna vote against his nomination?
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
RFK only cleared a "Major hurdle", lads. There is still the Senate Vote later NEXT week lol :D https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/04/rfk-jr-confirmation-vote-finance-committee-republican-senator-bill-cassidy-key-player/
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
Wait a second - there is still the senate vote after the senate committee vote, right?! I am not saying this is supposed to be 50/50, but 2% seems a no brainer?
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
New to the Elon discussion - im still pretty sure he is *NOT* "officially nominated or appointed"?! :D
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
Only if the dispute gets accepted, right?
ruh
2 weeks ago
Who proposed this early? Why didn't you wait for the result? That's $750 burned
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
Because its not January anymore.
ruh
2 weeks ago
Who proposed this early? Why didn't you wait for the result? That's $750 burned
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
When does the vote take place?
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
🚀🚀🚀 TEAR DOWN THAT 96.0% WALL!!! 🚀🚀🚀
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
https://www.newsweek.com/republican-worried-own-colleagues-wont-confirm-tulsi-gabbard-2023978
Foreseeable.
3 weeks ago
Any reasons these markets are XX% rather than XX.X%? I find it super tilting :D
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
despite them being in washington at the time
lranon
0 months ago
https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
Look at the other markets. A lot of people closed as "No"
lranon
0 months ago
https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
No doubt she was at the inauguration events. There is photos. But she was *NOT* at the ceremony. Hardly anyone was.
lranon
0 months ago
https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
dude its the party, not the ceremony. We have been through this in the chat already. There were a thousand cameras in the ceremony room, no spotting of Jenner.
lranon
0 months ago
https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
you can close for 19
Bertapotamous
0 months ago
Can we close Garlinghouse
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
how do we know only the afternoon event counts?
RhadThebigBad
0 months ago
Question for “yes” holders- if Jenner was attending the midday ceremony, why would she say “see you all TONIGHT”?
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
"Trump declares national emergency at border in first speech to nation" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyjqgl2erzo
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
"Donald Trump has said he will declare an emergency at the US-Mexico border as one of a host of executive orders the incoming president will sign on Monday and in the coming days." https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-inauguration-trump-to-declare-national-emergency-at-us-mexico-border-in-blitz-of-executive-orders-13293054
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
You guys realize that Dana White and Joe Rogan are colleagues, and look alike? Joe was in the church and will attend the party, but he is OBVIOUSLY not in the rotundra where only 700 people fit in LOL. Look at this picture! You guys saw Dana White, NOT Joe! :D https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2025/01/donald-trump-inauguration-updates-dana-white-joe-rogan-ufc
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
So what parts of the ceremony can you think of? Cause it says "parts", right?
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
Even if the church service was not to count (of course it counts to the schedule you fools :D) - do you really think the people flying in will just go home after the inauguration itself? lol
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
Even if the church service was not to count (of course it counts to the schedule you fools :D) - do you really think the people flying in will just go home after the inauguration itself? lol
Foreseeable.
0 months ago
#JoeRogan? Found him! https://x.com/iAnonPatriot/status/1881352921973178824/photo/1
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
What are the 7 "Buying 1.7 shared per 8 seconds" bots think they are doing?
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
There is zero chance zuckerberg is attending this now with only 100 people attending lol
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
"Israeli strikes killed 77 Palestinians after the ceasefire was declared." Does it still count?! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-24
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
Back in the comment section I mean. You were in BintJbeil I recall? ;)
nicekitty
1 month ago
'To count toward the resolution of this market, a ceasefire... must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict [and] must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.’ Just waiting for Netanyahu/Sinwar to issue statements and we’re done here. Thank you someone at 2c for the free Benjamin
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
People who made more money than you was rather the claim.
h00r11z11n2003
1 month ago
Everytime I get in one of these markets I seriously wonder how many of you people actually read the news. This has been a pretty obvious call as far back as October or even earlier. Was made more likely by Trump win but probably would have happened anyway. If you bought no, please reach out next time to someone like me before you place a similar bet in the future. Love
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
good to see you again!
nicekitty
1 month ago
'To count toward the resolution of this market, a ceasefire... must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict [and] must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.’ Just waiting for Netanyahu/Sinwar to issue statements and we’re done here. Thank you someone at 2c for the free Benjamin
Foreseeable.
1 month ago
dont tell. dont ask.
Oxymirin
1 month ago
🚨 WARNING 🚨: For people coming from the other market: Don’t YOLO in or fall for scammers saying this market is competitive. It's not. Betting on this event happening before February 28th is an extremely speculative gamble. Lily Phillips did an interview with E! News on January 14th. In it, she explicitly confirmed that her planned 300 men event - originally scheduled for December as preparation for the 1000 men record attempt - was postponed due to problems with the organiser. Then she confirs this 300 person event is rescheduled for March 2nd. Watch the interview yourself at E! News (relevant piece is at 1:25) https://www.eonline.com/news/1412151/how-much-money-lily-phillips-makes-on-onlyfans. Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtCdtWdqiqA. This market is a 1.5-month bond, being negotiated over low exit volume. Don't bet your money without being aware of the risk.
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
Guys this market adds up to 92% wtf are you doing?
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
Other markets are not.
Justifax
2 months ago
Deposit risk is why market is under 100%. You can go on poly and ask them to add a feature where we can merge yes in all the brackets to 1 usdc though. That would be cool and would immediately get rid of the underpricing.
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
Guys, let's look at this. From this list, you can tell that all candidates summed up are only 95,5%. And its not the spread. :D
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
its not.
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
which would make it 94%, if he were not included in the 93%.
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?
Foreseeable.
2 months ago
Soooo no one is resolving this?
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
Fanduell has McLaren on 87%, wtf are you guys doing?!
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
!!!! HUGE OPPORTUNITY: UNIBET has odds already: McLaren 1.22, Ferrari 4. This equals to 80% McLaren / 20% Ferrari. Im already 3k deep intimo McLaren so cant do any more. Someone keeps on selling McLaren for 65% You are welcome! 😄 https://polymarket.com/event/f1-constructors-championship-winner/will-mclaren-win-the-2024-f1-constructors-cup?tid=1730502517966
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
!!!! HUGE OPPORTUNITY: UNIBET has odds already: McLaren 1.22, Ferrari 4. This equals to 80% McLaren / 20% Ferrari. Im already 3k deep intimo McLaren so cant do any more. You are welcome! 😄 https://www.unibet.com/betting/sports/filter/formula_1/all/competitions
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
lol no rules no nothing? 😂
MrKangaroo
3 months ago
gotta be missing something here
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
Worst missclick of my life. Jags Yes for 91% lol. Have fun with my money.
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
🦊 Kamala has been to FOX. She is NOT afraid of having a discussion during a podcast for sure. Added, During the Podcast with Trump, Joe said that "I could imagine her doing this show. She was supposed to do it, she might still do it and I hope she does. I would talk to her like a human being. I would try to have a conversation with her... I think we'd have a fine conversation." I am very happy buying below 10%. 📈 https://www.sportskeeda.com/mma/news-joe-rogan-says-kamala-harris-might-still-appear-jre-podcast-donald-trump-predicts-outcome-she-laying-floor-comatose
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
Joe needs to get his twitter channel under control. Its ridiculous.
poolvade
3 months ago
https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1849227794284429723?s=46&t=OQQiNqbJEpVBe0Xkfp2UAA
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
She was on fox lol
JpY
3 months ago
No teleprompters on podcasts, they aren't townhalls
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
She was on Fox you absolute maniacs, the fuck are you talking about?!
LastChanceSaloon
3 months ago
I have had a bunch of doubts and second thoughts all day. I don't know why she has not announced. But maybe it's a security thing or she wants a big surprise. I have no inside info. She may not go. But I think it would be terrible strategy not to go
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
The discussion here is ridiculous; what are you even talking about?!!! She was on Fox. And Joe is no Maga maniac. Ill buy everything below 10% 😄
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
She was on Fox. And Joe is no MAGA guy.
Speculo
3 months ago
GUYS, this is so sad for me, but I admit defeat... If she doesn't go to Rogan on Friday, while she's in Texas, that's over. She's not coming back. As an Harris supporter, I think this is a major blow to prefer to go to some no name podcast to discuss abortion rights again, like for the thousands time in the last 4 years, instead of going to the most popular show in the US, to talk the the young guys she needs to win the swings states. This is beyond stupidness. Yes Mountainman, I have listened to her, and while she's definitely no Obama, I think she's able to handle some laidback discussion with a nice dude like Joe... At least she should be. I can’t believe it.
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
🦧🦠: SOME CALCULATIONS The Virus already appeared in European 🇪🇺 countries TWICE (Sweden 🇸🇪 & Germany 🇩🇪) in the last 2 month, despite them being much, much smaller and far less connected to the Congo compared to the US. 🧮 Lets assume the chance of the Virus coming to the US in the same timeframe is approximately 80%+, making it 10% per week. 📈 Clearly, the likelihood of Mpox occurring FORE THE FIRST TIME is higher the coming week compared to any other, so the probability for next week is approximatelz 13%. 💸 With the market lasting for another 10 days, the fair value for a YES outcome is roughly 16%!
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
🦠🇩🇪 BREAKING: MPOX 1B IN GERMANY!!!! 🇩🇪🦠 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-detects-first-mpox-variant-ib-case/a-70565943
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
F you.
JohnDeere
4 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doablle https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1846009714892529933.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
oh man this is so annoying.
TrumpPundit
4 months ago
Trump is really a marketing genius, he's shown it again and again. Thats how he built his empire of course but him now venturing into a crypto token is super smart. Trump 🇺🇸 is involved and he's got it pinned on X — https://x.com/WorldLiberty/status/1846523584136495522
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Did Justin Bieber ever "launch" Calvin Klein Underwear? Or was he involved in its deployment?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This picture of geoconfirmed (https://geoconfirmed.org/israel/8ea2df95-65c2-4ede-ae84-08dce576cadc) shows perfectly that the IDF has taken control of the strategically incredible important hill just above BintJbeil 5 days ago: https://geoconfirmed.org/israel/8ea2df95-65c2-4ede-ae84-08dce576cadc
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Shortly after 10 a.m. on Sunday, Hezbollah announced that it had fired shells at Israeli soldiers on Lebanese territory, in the border village of Maroun al-Ras, in the Bint Jbeil district." THE ISRAELIS HAVE THE HIGH GROUND OF MAROUN EL RAS; CONTROLLING BINT JEBEIL FROM THERE: CONFIRMED BY HISBOLLAH. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1431095/hezbollah-fires-shells-at-israeli-soldiers-in-maroun-al-ras-lebanese-territory.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Shortly after 10 a.m. on Sunday, Hezbollah announced that it had fired shells at Israeli soldiers on Lebanese territory, in the border village of Maroun al-Ras, in the Bint Jbeil district." THE ISRAELIS HAVE TO HIGH GROUND OF MAROUN EL RAS; CONTROLLING BINT JEBEIL FROM THERE: CONFIRMED BY HISBOLLAH. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1431095/hezbollah-fires-shells-at-israeli-soldiers-in-maroun-al-ras-lebanese-territory.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/13/israel-iran-conflict-hamas-hezbollah-lebanon-latest-news/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on Sunday called on the UN chief to “immediately” remove UN peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon out of “harm’s way”. ---- here we go again!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on Sunday called on the UN chief to “immediately” remove UN peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon out of “harm’s way”. ---- here we go again!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Israel surrounding BintJbeil right now according to RedCrossJournalist of the Year McCarthy: https://x.com/hannahmc_carthy/status/1845157398060716417?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They dont need to enter. Stepping inside the muncipality is involving the very outskirts of BintJbeil. And they are already there. See comments.
Rentaswag
4 months ago
There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Right?
poly-murderers
4 months ago
how come the prices are so low?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
...and yes, I am by far overinvested - because I am pretty sure the evidence is super clear, and can not understand how people see this market at 25% :D
FreemanR
4 months ago
Purely ground based, ok.. this does not mean infantry only though.. go to wikipedia bro. They have armour units and artillery units within the 36th, which are what likely assisted.. you gotta be too deep in to be constantly spreading bullcrap man lol
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Just a geolocation nerd with a new hobby, sorry! 😅
FreemanR
4 months ago
Purely ground based, ok.. this does not mean infantry only though.. go to wikipedia bro. They have armour units and artillery units within the 36th, which are what likely assisted.. you gotta be too deep in to be constantly spreading bullcrap man lol
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
im sorry you feel that way. 🥲
FreemanR
4 months ago
I am buying more, but you are a dumbass, first rate bro..
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This is early reporting, obviously, but we got another few days: "The only direct clashes between the two national armies were on Oct 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army position in the area of Bint Jbeil" https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/hezbollah-israel-battle-on-border-as-lebanon-s-army-watches-from-sidelines-124101200059_1.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Just a little reminder that this market is a $800$ bet away from being at $82 again, and there is solid evidence by IDF (https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46) and LiveMapUA that its already done. (https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Just a little reminder that this market is a $800$ bet away from being at $82 again, and there is solid evidence by IDF (https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46) and LiveMapUA that its already done. (https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Bulldozer Killing the Nasrallah Statue on top of maroun al ras hill: https://x.com/HamasAtrocities/status/1844297417619013705
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Here is a post confirming Israel jas already conquered the village on the hill just before BintJbeil called MarounElRas: https://x.com/osint613/status/1843646229479338364?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Here is a post confirming Israel jas already conquered the village on the hill just before BintJbeil called MarounElRas: https://x.com/osint613/status/1843646229479338364?s=46
Rentaswag
4 months ago
There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
here you go: https://imgur.com/a/PvXMVFl
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You realise there is video of Tanks in the Park of MarounElRas? So they are up the hill already. Its an advantage, if anything.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
What are you talking about? Just google MarounElRas and BintJbeil on Google Maps. There is neither a ridge nor a deep plain between the two. There was one between the Blue Zone and MarounElRas; and its Video Confirmed they passed that.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon
Rentaswag
4 months ago
There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Here is the original post of the IDF claiming that bombing BintJbeil was done "in cooperation with the 36th Division". Its a regular, purely ground based army division of the IDF. YES! https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You heard about the "Invade Lebanon" dispute, right?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
99% of the time "too early" is used when it proposed before the deadline, not after
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"too early to call"
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Polymarkert and UMA resolve markets based on the info available at the end of the market this case next 3 days. They do not wait a long time
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You ever heard about disputes?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Polymarkert and UMA resolve markets based on the info available at the end of the market this case next 3 days. They do not wait a long time
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The 36th is already in BintJbeil. It's still classified though. This market might take a long time to resolve, but one thing is for sure: Israeli Boots have entered the muncipality of BintJbeil days ago. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823968
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"What I saw in southern Lebanon on Thursday was complete IDF supremacy on the ground – and in record time.The very fact that the IDF felt it was safe to bring reporters in, and only 11 days since the invasion began, was itself a stunning result that could not have been foreseen in advance – a show of IDF dominance and confidence." https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1844423230402203992?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Why did I went all in at 33ct? This is such a juicy price 😭
Aquati
4 months ago
BREAKING: YnetNews: About a week ago, Golani fighters arrived in Maroun al-Ras, a location that became a symbol during the Second Lebanon War, even in Israel. The IDF achieved relatively swift operational control in the village, allowing for convenient movement in the hostile village at the ridge's peak, extending to the nearby town of Bint Jbeil https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/hj91wmv11x#autoplay
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You guys seem to be very confused about what a muncipality is: "The Ponce City Hall, in the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico, is the seat of the government for both the city and the surrounding barrios making up the municipality." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Municipality
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"The Ponce City Hall, in the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico, is the seat of the government for both the city and the surrounding barrios making up the municipality." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Municipality
FreemanR
4 months ago
Brother a municipality is the town/ciry, NOT province, which is what the article you linked describes..
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Google what a muncipality is. It is *NOT* the city. Look at LiveUAmap, you will see the borders (and that the IDF is already there) there.
FreemanR
4 months ago
You wrong again brother, read more carefully.. also understand that the province and city have the same name, though we are only betting on the city here...
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
What are you talking about?! This is a direct quote from the linked article LOL "The only direct clash between the two national armies occurred on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army post also in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier and prompting Lebanese soldiers to return fire."
jowrex
4 months ago
I did read and it sais airstrike . Not in bent jbeil
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Another incident. Read the article. ABCNews is a huge american news outlet. This is reliable.
jowrex
4 months ago
It wasnt a tank . It was an airstrike that killed 2 lebanon army
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
WE GOT PROOF!!! "The only direct clash between the two national armies occurred on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army post also in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier and prompting Lebanese soldiers to return fire." https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-deadliest-strike-central-beirut-leaves-lebanese-stunned-114712851
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
$358 left! 😁
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
It only costs $850 to get this market to $81 again; i might feel lucky tomorrow 💰 📈
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"On Thursday, the IDF for the first time brought Israeli journalists into a village in southern Lebanon, a clear indication that it feels it has asserted operational control over the area. Other signs of the new reality abound. Israel has cut a series of openings into the border fence for IDF vehicles to cross into Lebanon, and the gaps are now entirely unguarded. It brought the journalists into enemy territory in open Hummers, with no fear of snipers or mines" https://www.timesofisrael.com/finally-on-the-offensive-idfs-91st-division-slices-through-hezbollahs-front-lines/amp/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
It only costs $850 to get this market to $81 again; i might feel lucky tomorrow 💰 📈
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
And if you still think the Israelis have a hard time conquering the border villages, look at this legend casually strolling around lebanese territory. BinJbeil is only 2 miles from the blue zone! https://youtu.be/-aJQGmatsfA?si=OMysI2K0v29SAnT2
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Finally, this map - that has been used to solve other markets (Ukrain war etc.) before - shows Israeli Control Zones touching BintJbeil since 2 days, despite lagging behind a few days for OpSec reasons. No Holders must be tripping buying at 70%?! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They went north. See comment above. "No" lol 😄
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
A UNIFIL spokesperson told me that the Israeli army had withdrawn from its position in the southern Lebanon town of Maroun al-Ras, where it had earlier raised an Israeli flag. "We can’t independently verify where they moved to," UNIFIL said. Source is a pretty reliable lebanese journalist: https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Holding Yes in this market is basically saying we have something close to a world war 3 within the next 3 month. 40% for that?! Seriously?!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The "IDF retreats/withdraws" from UNIFIL positions myth is already debunked. The IDF moved its tanks "north": Check you maps where north of Maroun El Ras is lol https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1k7gkd0r3zo
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The "retreat" myth is already debunked. The IDF moved its tanks "north": Check you maps where north of Maroun El Ras is lol https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1k7gkd0r3zo
dav1
4 months ago
or they retreated...
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You guys realize this market is about "Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality", not about conquering the city centre, right? And there needs to be evidence "this happened before October 16th 06:49am" local time? Report about a single raid in BintJbeils Suburbs will be enough. And this will be disputed till October 20th+ if necessary to be clear what actually happened. Im giving it 90%+, and there is a reason this market was already there.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I cant buy anymore for Bankroll Management reasons, probably too conservative. But you No buyers at 75% are completely insane: "Hezbollah is continuing to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF as the IDF expands the breadth of ground operations in southern Lebanon." reports the Institute for the study of war. https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1844186506736361545?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Raids deep into southern lebanon" reports the biggest arabian News Outlet with 16M followers: Israeli raids on border towns and deep in southern Lebanon resume after a relatively quiet night." https://x.com/alarabiya/status/1844347145047970003?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"as Israel expands its ground incursion into Lebanon" https://x.com/washtimes/status/1844139366337196404?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
What the hell is going on? All im reading is very much in the "definitely in BJ already, just no reporting yet?! (Which is normal as the IDF always reports with a time lag! ""Israeli sources have reported that Hezbollah forces will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF. The IDF 36th Division commander similarly noted that some Hezbollah militants withdraw deeper into Lebanon while others flee outright." https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1844356671742640230
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
ISRAELI SECURITY CABINET EXPECTED TO APPROVE ISRAEL’S RESPONSE PLAN TO IRAN https://x.com/deitaone/status/1844402802467967363?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Its a scam.
PolymarketApp
4 months ago
Have you seen that guys? https://x.com/polymarket_news/status/1844119366717370865
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Its a scam. dont do it.
CharlesGalloway
4 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/DefiantNews_io/status/1844068113450762423
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Its not about if they attack, its about what they attack. and they will know that tonight. https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1844359114392207676
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Security Council to meet tonight. Last time they met, the attack happened within 24hs. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-824052
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
fuck.
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I sold 1.5k YES: Though im pretty sure there will be boots in BintJbeil before October 16th, I very much doubt that the IDF will report so before having significant success. BintJbeil was a disaster for the IDF in 2006. They need to win the media war. No reporting before they own Bint. Good luck to all yes holders though; theoretically, you are right.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
?
Cedarville
4 months ago
@Foreseeable. godspeed
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Who are the Jaguar Maniacs betting higher than in any Sportsbook despite rake?! 😂
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
BREAKING Aljazeera publishing a video of a tank grinding through the tiny village (40 buildings) just in front of BintJbeil. This video has just been relreased an hour ago. https://x.com/reportnewsgaza/status/1843978036905177318?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
YNET is one of the mayor israeli newspapers. This piece describes how they are already building roads for further operations towards BintJbeil within lebanese territory! https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hygjzdmyje
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The reporting that Israel "retreated" from Maroun El Ras (right on the border to BintJbeil) is false - they only moved their troops away from the UN Forces (parking there with 50+ vehicles was kind of a geopolitical scandal)! They wanted the UN to leave, taking their base as a forward position. The UN refused. Then they moved on TOWARDS THE CITY: https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/socialsharing-limericklive/1625571/situation-becomes-relatively-calm-for-irish-peacekeepers-as-idf-withdraw-from-irish-un-post.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The most relevant war mapping provider LIVEUAMAP already shows parts of BintJbeil being an Israeli Control zone since 3 days - this alone could be enough for a yes if we dont get further evidence in the next 6 days: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/9-october-06-hezbollah-we-bombed-a-gathering-of-israeli-soldiers
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Israelis are now moving forward north of BintJbeil aswell according to Hezbollah. https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1843961782689575345
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Israelis are now moving forward north of BintJbeil aswell according to Hezbollah. https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1843961782689575345
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
See the 450 at 63ct? Thats me! Reasoning in the replies:
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
See the 450 at 63ct? Thats me! Reasoning in the replies:
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
fuck. Where do you get the UN Spokesman story from_
Fredi9999WASP🐝
4 months ago
I don't think the map on https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ is correct. They apparently set up the Flag in the Maroun El Ras Park (geolocated), which is literally just 300m from the border and just the beginning of the village Maroun El Ras. Then someone tweeted about an UN Spokesman telling them that they even retreaded from there 3h ago. The last part could also be fake news, but I see more value on No right now.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
WTF happened Kobafix? :(
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Fuck!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
It most definetely is not. :D
Cedarville
4 months ago
Isn’t Marion Al-Ras in the district of Bint Jbeil? Isn’t this already resolved?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
But how will we see "credible reporting"? As in "There has been small arms fighting around BinJbeil - would that be enough? Not really, right?
Fredi9999WASP🐝
4 months ago
"however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." I don't think there will anyone be anyone dumb enough to dispute a yes decision here and risk 750 dollars.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
damn. :D
CheerfulPessimist
4 months ago
I feared the same, that's why I sold all my shares. Good luck to you though!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
who is bro who did not understand this? :D
Fredi9999WASP🐝
4 months ago
Bro you should have learned from Invasion market that prices mean nothing, especially in this Low liquidity market
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
(no pun intended :D )
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
🐁 leaving the sinking ship.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
🐁 leaving the sinking ship.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
$500 will push this market to 95% now lol :D Congrats guys! I love poly :)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Of course they did. You dont casually park your tanks somewhere if the frontline is 300m away.
Adrimarket
4 months ago
agreed, they might even have already entered bint jbeil
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
oh man. i wanted to be the one finding this post first :D
Adrimarket
4 months ago
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1843646229479338364 Maroun al-ras is under israel control (look at where bint jbeil is)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Just a quick reminder to the no folks: This is *not* a market for conquering the City Center of BintJbeil, it *is* about ENTERING the larger area around Bint Jbeli. If they build a fort in the neighboring village and casually park their tanks there, you can deduct its most probably not the frontline anymore :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
are you on discord? Same Nickname!
nicekitty
4 months ago
small fish in a big pond my friend
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Thank god for NiceKitty!
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Just look how close the israeli ZONE OF CONTROL already is. https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843525291433758759/photo/1
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Sattelite Imagery of the israeli base right at the border to Bint Jbeil, just casually parking "on the frontline" (that actually runs through BintJbeil already). https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843519820832354368 This one even shows they have secured the main street to BintJbeil 3 days ago. Its like 500m from the Muncipality border there. https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843511753969459403/photo/1 They are even building roads there LOL :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
AFC South Market: Jags are at 5% on Fanduell Sportsbook, even lower than the Titans. Im too deep already, so go for it! :D Fanduell Market: https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=divisions Poly: https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south/will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-win-the-afc-south?tid=1728378929048
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Jags are at 5% on Fanduell Sportsbook, even lower than the Titans. Im too deep already, so go for it! :D https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=divisions
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market not moving at all LOL https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-october/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-october?tid=1728341108968
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Guys?! https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843426151521484850
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://x.com/CWBOCA/status/1843424850620330012
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843424005312663579
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Nuke facility in Isfahan"
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Nuke facility in Isfahan"
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You guys are slow. https://x.com/adam7867862/status/1843423092506517622
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Ask yourself why you bet the same bs! :D
denizz
4 months ago
conspiratard spotted
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
me?
cashy
4 months ago
hey man - please respond on Twitter
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Where do you got that "going around" story from?
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
Bint Jbeil It’s very important to clamping down the arms movement of Hezbollah. The idea they are going to skip it and go around is laughable
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They might in fact not conquer the complete city first and only then move on, but surpassing it without any engagement to control for ambushes from behind? But not touching the muncipality?! Never!
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
Bint Jbeil It’s very important to clamping down the arms movement of Hezbollah. The idea they are going to skip it and go around is laughable
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Go to Google Maps. Look at Bint Jbeil. And then tell me again that you think it is a "city". If you further google it, you will find that its considered the "Hezbollah Stronghold" in the Lebanese South. You really think the Israelis will not enter its Muncipality?! :D
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
IDF: "are not going to Beirut. We’re not going to the cities in southern Lebanon. We are focusing on the area of those villages, the area next to our border. We will do in this area what is necessary to dismantle and demolish Hezbollah’s infrastructure" Bint Jbeil population: 30k not really a village
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
How can you read this article, and then look at the LiveuaMap of lebanon, and then decide to bet "No" at 69%? lol "Although Israel has insisted its week-long ground operation was to be “limited” and “targeted”, elements of three divisions are now involved in the fighting after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that its 91st Division had joined the ground incursion overnight." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/07/israeli-troop-reinforcements-cast-doubt-over-limited-lebanon-invasion
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I am super new to this site and knees deep into the market, so I will not invest another $750. The more lucrative way would be to buy the market till 99ct anyway :D But can you elaborate why you hold NO despite reasonable evidence that they are already there, and 7 days to go until the market closes? (It can even go "too early" for a couple of days as we learned from the Israel Invades Lebanon market lol)
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
you are free to propose and see what UMA decide
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Little further hint: Liveuamap has been used to solve markets before for the War in Ukraine.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Evidence for Israeli troops in the muncipality: https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-october-hezbollah-announces-targeting-a-gathering-of-israeli
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market is not about conquering BINT JBEIL, but about " Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality". Liveupmap already proofs that they are, and we got another 8 (!!!) days for further evidence. Im already knees deep invested, but this market at 68% is just bonkers :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market is not about conquering BINT JBEIL, but about " Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality". Liveupmap already proofs that they are, and we got another 8 (!!!) days for further evidence. Im already knees deep invested, but this market at 68% is just bonkers :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
How is israel supposed to cross the 200 mittens?! like ever?! thats why I sold.
Scrungey
4 months ago
200 kittens 🐱 miaow
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
@forseeable_pm
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
If anything has been proven, it is clear Israel continues to push into Lebanon. The October 7th is here. Should be interesting.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
add me on twitter dude :D
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
If anything has been proven, it is clear Israel continues to push into Lebanon. The October 7th is here. Should be interesting.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You dont think they will enter the Muncipality in the next 10 days despite livemap saying they already did_
Fredi9999WASP🐝
4 months ago
I dont think they will do it but not gonna bet
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Im 99% sure this is a scam.
SylvesterStallone
4 months ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
i will not invest another $750 in this lol :D
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
you can propose if you are so sure :)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
and another geolocated source: https://x.com/Stinky915846091/status/1842988819446112612/photo/1
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Read the rules and release me - its enough for them to "enter the MUNCIPALITY of Bint Jbeil" - and they did that. I was never 1.5k deep into a position, sweating blood here :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
And here you can see that they are also entering BintJbeil from the west: https://x.com/JCGRELET/status/1843027015055610109
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
BREAKING NEWS of Bint Jbeil: (Im aready all in, sweating blood LOL). You can see here: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ That the Israelis are already here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15?tid=1728246547108
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Stop fighting about this market. Better invest in the BREAKING NEWS of Bint Jbeil: (Im aready all in, sweating blood LOL). You can see here: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ That the Israelis are already here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15?tid=1728246547108
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Look at this map - they are in already! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They listened to you LOL
fate
6 months ago
Jags - 26% chance to make the playoffs, 1.1% chance to win the SB -- IT SEEMS LIKE THE JAGS ARE MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/football/futures/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner" - Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner" - Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner": Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner": Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
what?
Shayku
4 months ago
He wasn't claimed the Nov market yet...
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://imgur.com/a/JvLPmM4
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This Map is obviously lacking behind. But they are already making significant progress. Reporting of fighting inside the 50-houses "Maroun al Ras" just in front of Bint Jbeil. Its like 1km to the edge of "the MUNCIPALITY (!!!) of Bint Jbeil"!! Picture attached! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This Map is obviously lacking behind. But they are already making significant progress. Reporting of fighting inside the 50-houses "Maroun al Ras" just in front of Bint Jbeil. Its like 1km to the edge of "the MUNCIPALITY (!!!) of Bint Jbeil"!! Picture attached! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The IDF has killed "More than 250 Hezbollah operatives" during Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon since troops began a ground offensive" according to Times of Israel. You guys are telling me they dont make 3miles of progress on the most significant town of this war? (https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-over-250-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-southern-lebanon-ground-offensive/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Chad is the only one ruling this kingdom. Yes would be dead without him.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The Wiki Article on the battle of Jint Jbeil is acutally super interesting. It is considered the Hezbollah Stronghold in the south of Lebanon, and the military focus is on winning the lost battle of 2006 this time./
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Maroun al Raz is literally a small village with 40 houses, and the only thing on the mile between the IDF and Bint Jbeil.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Maroun al Raz is literally a small village with 40 houses, and the only thing on the mile between the IDF and Bint Jbeil.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I cant go any deeper for bankroll management reasoning, but 50% is craaaaazy - I assume you guys have not done your homework? Its another 10 days LOL
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
There is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
There is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I cant go any deeper for bankroll management reasoning, but 50% is craaaaazy :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I assume you guys have not done your homework to know that there is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I assume you guys have not done your homework to know that there is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Get a real job, MasterQueef!! :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
What the F does "give a speech" mean? If he says hello to everyone and f*s of, is that a speech?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Hit me up on twitter, I guess you repaired it? Sorry man :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I wonder what these bombardements are for? https://x.com/RichardHardigan/status/1842515152874176551
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The fuck is happening?! Any news?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
@Art WHAT DO YOU KNOW MATE?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Its an honor meeting you, sir. Glad you always invade 3hs before the end of the month! 😂
BibiNetanyahu
4 months ago
ez money?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
shoul have bet more i guess xD 2% seems incredibly low to me
BibiNetanyahu
4 months ago
ez money?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If they go for the nuclear sites, we have other problems than Poly... https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1842319067455144234
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
HOLY SHIT IS IT HAPPENING?!?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://x.com/HuntersOfNazis/status/1842231435412828555
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market was at 62% YES, and since then the US/Brits hit the Huthis in Yemen. There is absolutely no reason why this market should not go back to 62%, if not lower: While the US would NEVER attack Iran/Hisbollah directly, they are totally capable of dealing with the houthies for Israel, who can focus on South-lebanon and Iran. Give me more shares. Im Buying.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market was at 62% YES, and since then the US/Brits hit the Huthis in Yemen. There is absolutely no reason why this market should not go back to 62%, if not lower: While the US would NEVER attack Iran/Hisbollah directly, they are totally capable of dealing with the houthies for Israel, who can focus on South-lebanon and Iran. Give me more shares. Im Buying.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Regarding the whole "Military action to take control"; lets have a look at a standard literature about the war in lebanon in 2006: "Initially, Israel had no intention of capturing Bint Jbeil. Rather, the IDF sought to CONTROL the city from outside." Its from a academic journal: Kober, Avi (2008). The Israel Defense Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance?. The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 31, No. 1, 3 – 40, p 28 Find it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bint_Jbeil
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If you like, just bet and HODL till the end with what you think is right. no reason to trade too much.
FamilyCapital
4 months ago
I guess this website is more about trade on news or activity in comment section, and not about betting.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
50pence about to nuke teherani nuclear reactors on his own.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I used to have a lot of yes, now I am out because I dront trust the process. :(
ncap
4 months ago
hahahahha why did you had ,,No" shares 2min ago
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Sounds like an invasion "intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" to me... “We are very determined to destroy this infrastructure and eliminate anyone present there. We will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself in these places,” the military chief said. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-war-lebanon-10-03-24-intl-hnk/index.html?t=1727985197086
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
i dont understand this sale at all. yesterday was Jewish new year, it was completely clear to me that if they attack, they will do it tonight. Thougt people would appreciate that with their 50% evaluation, apparently they did not. Important: This is until 06:59am of 4th of October due to different time zone. Im Hyped.
mr.ozi
4 months ago
How did I miss such a sale? Damn.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
LINK
Butterpickledhead
4 months ago
The IDF spokesman officially announces the entry of troops into bint jbeil
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
2 soldiers died while defending Bint Jbeil; the icon on livemap is AK47, symbol for ground fighting?! https://imgur.com/a/m2K4mYl
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lebanese army says another soldier killed by the "Israeli enemy" targeting an ARMY BASE IN BINT JBEIL!!!! x.com/The_NewArab/status/1841827582573965714
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Lebanese army says another soldier killed by the "Israeli enemy" targeting an army base in Bint Jbeil areahttps://x.com/The_NewArab/status/1841827582573965714
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://x.com/forseeable_pm ;)
McLarry
4 months ago
hey guys, take a look at my funny picture. Markets are the best reflection of reality and UMA is a truth machine https://imgur.com/a/LHDxBHs
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
sooooo you are german? Best from Berlin! :D
McLarry
4 months ago
hey guys, take a look at my funny picture. Markets are the best reflection of reality and UMA is a truth machine https://imgur.com/a/LHDxBHs
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Remember when right after the raid of bin laden america moved in on the border with pakistan to take control of the border area because killing bin laden was just the first step of an invasion? Me neither. Because its a completely different case.
Amok
4 months ago
To those who don't understand the difference between a raid and an invasion: Remember when the US killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011? US soldiers entered Pakistan, attacked Bin Laden's hideout, killed him, then pulled back out. Does that mean the US invaded Pakistan, let alone tried to "establish control" oder Pakistan? Of course not. Same with the Israeli raids into Lebanon during the night of Sep 30 / Oct 1. They went in an pulled their troops back out. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c This market is about Israel attacking with intent to either annex or occupy a part of Lebanon to establish a "buffer zone". The IDF has not laid out such plans yet. Therefore this can only resolve NO
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Not sure if you are genuinely nice,
mr.ozi
4 months ago
Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
To Oil and Gas people buying at 34%: You realise there is a market of Israel attacking *ANYTHING* in the same timeframe at 38% right now?! You will win this one if Israel just attacks some random Military Airport (as it has done in the past), and loose your Oil and Gas bet! https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday/israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Can the General Link the inital source of his screenshot? :D
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
Just need Israel to cross this green line if I’m reading the rules right. I was earlier thinking it couldn’t happen but seeing how much they have pushed in I could see them looping around into the municipality https://imgur.com/a/msD6uei
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
That was not exactly the question. But where? xD
Fredi9999WASP🐝
4 months ago
You can buy them
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Sooooo who has got the UMA tokens exactly? :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If the evacuation & medic point is only 2km away from the area, you can very much assume that the fighting is already going on there.
Sakuya
4 months ago
It doesn't, as those are separate towns.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This dudes reporting is based on geolocated Telegram Videos et al. - they are already there fighting, as the frontline (where they do raids from) is super close. Please look at the rules; they dont need to be at the city center, but "physically enter the MUNCIPALITY of Bint Jbeil", which is including the surroundings. https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1841496571659071513/photo/2
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
They have a medical evacuation station 2.5km from Bint Jbeil! https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1841435182420684871
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack" https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-mulling-attacks-on-iran-oil-rigs-nuclear-sites-in-response-to-missile-attack/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The Gap between Oil and Nuclear research facilities seems bonkers to me. They attacked them in the past already.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You convinced me with this one! cheers!
DFK
4 months ago
I'm new here, so Hello. Here is my take. Not going to happen (obviously), but 79c 4 months away is probably not the best we can get. I think this kind of market gets juicy towards the end of Biden's term, when the cray-cray think it will happen. So: safe now, but I'd bet on a better entry point when some news hits, about Hunter's sentencing or about Biden's sanity.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
where did u get these coordinates from?
Aquati
4 months ago
33.11442, 35.44490 are the coordinades of the municipality border between Bint Jbeil and Maroun al-Ras
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
" The 36th Armored Division has crossed the border into Lebanon, probably north of the 2nd closed military zone that was introduced last night. It's a ~50km^2 area just 2km south of Bint Jbeil."
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Another 2km to go seems preeeeeety close to me https://x.com/thetimapping/status/1841445787563155848?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Another 2km to go seems preeeeeety close to me https://x.com/thetimapping/status/1841445787563155848?s=46
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
From Avivim Israel to BintJbeil Lebanon its a 82 minutes WALK of less than 4 miles lol
General.William.T.Sherman
4 months ago
Look at a map. There are plenty of villages before Bint Jbeil. We have questionable news Israel has crossed the border. If they have it cannot be too far in as we have little to no evidence.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
So its Walz with 40:42 vs 38:51 Vance, where do I propose? https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/speaking-times-vance-walz-debate-dg/index.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Give more info pls.
semi
4 months ago
Free alpha alert: this is a very bad translation. Look for the full statement.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
what do you mean?
Bink_7
4 months ago
Context is in way of which they’ve been doing for months
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Are you guys even reading the news? "Israeli media report Israel military will conduct 'powerful strikes' tonight throughout the Middle East" https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-media-report-israel-military-will-conduct-powerful-strikes-tonight-2024-10-01/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
i dont understand what this means.
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
4 months ago
PSA: If you are stating an opinion at #evidence-rationale on UMA Discord on ANY of the Israel enters/invades Lebanon markets, you CAN NOT argue for P1 because the proposals were contested before the markets expired
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I would be all over this YES market, but all the geniusses are on NO, so im afraid.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Where does the article proof your "Control"?
McLarry
4 months ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-announces-launch-of-limited-ground-raids-of-hezbollah-sites-across-lebanon-border/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Who is chad?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You guys read the rules, right? "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." This is *NEVER* happening.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
The "Israel enters Beirut this month (Special Forces Excluded in rules) is even better: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31
McLarry
4 months ago
Anyone who believes that there are no troops in Lebanon at all can still buy very cheap no-shares in the “Will Forces enter Lebanon market”. Have fun and good luck
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
As some guys here still think that Israel has not entered anything ever at all: There is a Market for "Israeli regular troops enter Beirut by end of the month". Rules explicitly state that "Special forces" dont count. Follow this Link for a Statement by IDF that they dont aim for Beirut: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-spokesman-israeli-troops-are-not-going-to-beirut-ground-op-will-be-as-short-as-we-can/ The Beirut Market with free 10% is here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
As some guys here still think that Israel has not entered anything ever at all: There is a Market for "Israeli regular troops enter Beirut by end of the month". Rules explicitly state that "Special forces" dont count. Follow this Link for a Statement by IDF that they dont aim for Beirut: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-spokesman-israeli-troops-are-not-going-to-beirut-ground-op-will-be-as-short-as-we-can/ The Beirut Market with free 10% is here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Right now, people are even debating wether there is an invasion going on. lol
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Israel launches ground incursion into South Lebanon, says it is not going to Beirut" https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Israel launches ground incursion into South Lebanon, says it is not going to Beirut" https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
THE RULES OF THE MARKET WILL BE OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION BY ISRAEL - So lets ask them:"We are continuing to operate to dismantle Hamas's capabilities to ensure they can never again carry out a massacre against us. And, we are intensively operating against the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon in order to enable the residents of northern Israel to return home in safety and security. These are our missions and we are determined to fulfil them." How on earth could you not read this as "taking control of the border region to prevent Hisbollah from operating in the future?" https://www.idf.il/235337
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This does not say there were no crossings. It just says "stop doing it"
Dr.ChristmasJones
4 months ago
https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-statement-1-october-2024
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
So far, there isnt even proof of this being an invasion. So it might be quite a NO.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Do we need proof this happened by october 15th, or will this be disputed to see wether there is solid proof for them having entered before October 15th?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Do we need proof this happened by october 15th, or will this be disputed to see wether there is solid proof for them having entered before October 15th?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
As you are a trustworthy person and great musician, i sold.
PDIDDY
4 months ago
you will lose buddy
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
As you are a trustworthy person, i just sold.
PDIDDY
4 months ago
you will lose buddy
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Will this dispute last for 1d 13hs? I need the money. :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
50-50, one might say
Drunken-Mentat
4 months ago
This was once a market about a possible invasion and occupation of Lebanon. Now it is a market about the probability of UMA resolving one way or another... and that's a totally different gamble ;)
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I sold and here is why: This market is going crazy given that the rules state that the operation needs to be “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. Even if they attack today (which is still maximum 50/50), its not even clear if it would count. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This will be disputed. And new evidence will come up the next 48hs while it is. Easy.
x3x3
4 months ago
Also 6 hours left to get more confirmations
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Restart the browser, delete the cache, log out and in again.
Phoenix777
4 months ago
Bought my shares 30min ago, but when i try to sell, the poly shows zero shares, am i the onlyone haveing this problem?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166
Car
4 months ago
Establish control over any portion of Lebanon
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This market is going crazy: “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"It was not to establish control"
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This will take for forever LOL :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
This will take for forever LOL :D
Phat.
4 months ago
who's holding till its resolved ?
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You guys realize the market for an actual invasion is at 35% already?! :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727715745370
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
“I’m more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a cease-fire, now,” Biden said. -- Is Bibbi that much of a badass? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I will go for another 2k with my winnings from the enter market if someone explains to me it does lol :D
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"After operations into Lebanese villages along the border – known as the Blue Line - the Israeli troops are expected to pull back into Israel." This does not sound like "to establish control" to me, does it? https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"After operations into Lebanese villages along the border – known as the Blue Line - the Israeli troops are expected to pull back into Israel." This does not sound like "to establish control" to me, does it? https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
"Biden urges Israel to stop raids in Lebanon" https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Even the "enters" market is only at 87% lol! https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727715461629
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I sold and here is why: This market is going crazy given that the rules state that the operation needs to be “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. Even if they attack today (which is still maximum 50/50), its not even clear if it would count. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If this keeps on falling the "will invade today" market will be higher than the "enters" market :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727712058733
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
You know what will also happen in this escalation within the next 24hs for much more than 3%? Iran hits Israel, as it has in the past as retalliation. https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-response-before-october/iran-military-response-before-october?tid=1727711343710
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Source?
kekkone
4 months ago
Israeli milbloggers now say the invasion will begin within 72 hours. This market closed in 13. GL all.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
On the ground reporting. https://x.com/Zachonearth/status/1840750644036079654
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
New Information, new recommendations! Car is a quick learner. Be like Car!
Justifax
4 months ago
car pumping YES after telling everyone to buy the 8% bond on NO takes the fucking cake
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Will they INVADE till tomorrow 07:00am? I have a clear thought about this honestly :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Stop arguing about this. Its ridiculous. Switch to the other market, which will be the next boom :D https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Stop arguing about this. Its ridiculous. Switch to the other market, which will be the next boom :D https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
There is another market to lose money on! https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727695472876
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515
NotJustKen
4 months ago
Fuck this. Going on vacation for few days. Won't open it till then. Fuck the truth as well. My only hope is Pence manipulating the market. Jerusalem Post cleared it that it was to "gain information" not to engage in combat. I don't know how it will resolve to Yes.. Peace out.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
On another note: Do you guys have issues with the servers aswell? Sometimes my positions disappear and i got a heart attack because it says my portfolio shrunk by 2k :D Also, stock amount is sometimes off, or it doesnt show activity? Happens for me in multiple networks, from multiple devices etc.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Welcome Back! :D
Apsalar
4 months ago
Whew
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
Why would you sell everything at once? doesnt that massively destroy equity? :D
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
I did in fact sell, price was too good considering the dispute and level of reporting around the special ops. If you compare price here to november invasion market, it just doesnt really make sense for an extra few % to push it for a day, rather than a month of window. if you can get out at a decent price, consider the move to november market is my advice. But idk shit :P
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
lol
BiggestBidenFan
4 months ago
Wrong location dude
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
JustSomeGuy just sold his NO for 85. He obviously doesnt know about the fake dump, i guess? :D
n/a
4 months ago
HatersLozers just sold his entire position, 50-Pence and aenews is next. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
It must be so hard to have bought at 90% No feeling all smart.
n/a
4 months ago
This market got manipulated to hell. 50-Pence, aenews and the rest of the whales will dump on all of you before this gets resolved. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
49 minutes ago: Israeli ground operation very much on the table. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If you want to earn further money, here is another market on "Israel is totally not using the 5000 tanks on the border within the next 24hs despite saying so" https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727694319936
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
If you want to earn further money, here is another market on "Israel is totally not using the 5000 tanks on the border within the next 24hs despite saying so" https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727694319936