Georgescu banned from Romania election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

cause i was faster lol

2

canuck4

1 year ago

did anyone's order not get filled? damn, hit buy at 68c and nothing

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

4.993 lol

2

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Im pretty sure 4.96 is enough for the 5% rule

0

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I agree that its highly likely that CDU will win this election. The question is rather if its 95%!

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So looking at the prices it basically hurt the anti-migration party of germany that there was a terror attack in munich yesterday, right?

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How do you have zero shares while being the biggest expert on the irrelevance of terrorism for this election? You could get crazy rich with all that expertise. Before Munich the AFD was at 7%, now its on 5%; makes zero sense.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So looking at the prices it basically hurt the anti-migration party of germany that there was a terror attack in munich yesterday, right?

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So looking at the prices it basically hurt the anti-migration party of germany that there was a terror attack in munich yesterday, right?

2

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Sooooooo today someone killed multiple people in an islamic attack in Munich 10 days before the election and the AFD Price is 0.2% lower than yesterday? WTF guys? :D

3

Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🚀🚀🚀 JUST IN: Linke at +2 compared to latest GMS polling; now at a stable 5%+, confirming other recent polls. https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1887845188598390949

0

U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why would they not?! "Defense Department drafting plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria after recent Trump comments Trump and officials close to him expressed interest in pulling all U.S. troops out of Syria, prompting the Pentagon to draw up plans for a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days." https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna190726

2

U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It will be updated. Its just the estimate.

1

taerv534

1 year ago

Title: "before July", Estimated end date: "Apr 29"

U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Positive Reporting on Trumps withdrawal plan: "If True, Trump Move To Withdraw US Military From Syria Is The Right One Not only are the 2,000 troops there in harm's way, their presence may actual hinder diplomatic progress under the new government" https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-us-troops-syria/

1

U.S. forces in Gaza before April?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I think its okay that some markets trade at 5% if Trump says he will do some crazy shit. I dont understand why they still trade above 1% if Trump says he WONT do some crazy shit. https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1887543148781461806?s=61

1

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Latest: Audit on US spending in Ukraine to follow soon, Trump also pressures Zelensky into making a deal. (1) https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1887520755807597050?s=61 (2) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1887521658937680134?s=61

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Glad to know you are 1/50 sure lol :D

0

BitcoinLover69

1 year ago

Rfk no bros coping HARD. Tell me, which 4 repubs are gonna vote against his nomination?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

RFK only cleared a "Major hurdle", lads. There is still the Senate Vote later NEXT week lol :D https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/04/rfk-jr-confirmation-vote-finance-committee-republican-senator-bill-cassidy-key-player/

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Wait a second - there is still the senate vote after the senate committee vote, right?! I am not saying this is supposed to be 50/50, but 2% seems a no brainer?

0

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

New to the Elon discussion - im still pretty sure he is *NOT* "officially nominated or appointed"?! :D

3

Which coalition will form the next German government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What coalitions could "other" be? Minority regime of Cdu? 😂

3

Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Only if the dispute gets accepted, right?

0

INK

1 year ago

Who proposed this early? Why didn't you wait for the result? That's $750 burned

Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Because its not January anymore.

0

INK

1 year ago

Who proposed this early? Why didn't you wait for the result? That's $750 burned

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

When does the vote take place?

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🚀🚀🚀 TEAR DOWN THAT 96.0% WALL!!! 🚀🚀🚀

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://www.newsweek.com/republican-worried-own-colleagues-wont-confirm-tulsi-gabbard-2023978

1

Champions League Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lisboa yes, City no. Look at the current standings. 0.1 is ridiculous.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Zagreb in the finals lol

Champions League Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Zagreb in the finals lol

2

Next Chancellor of Germany?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

and that means that 3% weidel is far too low 😄

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

German Democracy is fucked. At least I will get rich with it. https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1884480924743512145

Next Chancellor of Germany?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Very likely is not 97%, and the pressure is WYLD

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

German Democracy is fucked. At least I will get rich with it. https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1884480924743512145

Next Chancellor of Germany?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It is much more complicated than that: With the latest poll, there is no 2-way coalition possible, and Merz said he will not form a coalition with anyone not agreeing on his super strict migration plans. No one will accept these. we are up for a huge desaster, with established parties panicking and ripping each other appart. Weidel at 3.5% is far too low; its 3 weeks to go, and the trend is there.

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

German Democracy is fucked. At least I will get rich with it. https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1884480924743512145

Next Chancellor of Germany?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

German Democracy is fucked. At least I will get rich with it. https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1884480924743512145

1

Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Dont ask dont tell!

0

Mr.Eggplant

1 year ago

The market is about which model, at any point, will ever be #1. This would auto-resolve to Yes for Deepmind...

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who should BSW do a coalition with? Honest question lol. Agree on the lying, but only if it suits them. It would fuck the CDU big time if they would build a coalition with the AFD. 75% of Germans resent them for good reasons, and 50% of CDU members aswell. There are polls about this on the net. I think AFD NO is the best bet I have seen on poly so far.

3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

No Cooperation with the AfD : Merz renews firewall guarantee ‘Everyone can rely on this’ https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/zusammenarbeit-mit-der-afd-merz-erneuert-brandmauer-garantie-6794a9b0af23e411c51460b4

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

No Cooperation with the AfD : Merz renews firewall guarantee ‘Everyone can rely on this’ https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/zusammenarbeit-mit-der-afd-merz-erneuert-brandmauer-garantie-6794a9b0af23e411c51460b4

2

Stanley Cup Champion 2025

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Any reasons these markets are XX% rather than XX.X%? I find it super tilting :D

0

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I did.

0

Daavid2101

1 year ago

And so it begins... https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/wegen-asylpolitik-union-beschliesst-ende-der-brandmauer-li.2291147

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

EXACTLY. "‘I will not hold talks with the AfD about any kind of cooperation. Out of NATO? Out of the euro? On Putin's lap? I'm not in the CDU to throw everything overboard that has made us great and strong.’ (tm)" https://x.com/_FriedrichMerz/status/1883125088750621082

3

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

despite them being in washington at the time

0

behumble

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Look at the other markets. A lot of people closed as "No"

0

behumble

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

No doubt she was at the inauguration events. There is photos. But she was *NOT* at the ceremony. Hardly anyone was.

0

behumble

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

dude its the party, not the ceremony. We have been through this in the chat already. There were a thousand cameras in the ceremony room, no spotting of Jenner.

0

behumble

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1881167292471672924

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

you can close for 19

0

Bertapotamous

1 year ago

Can we close Garlinghouse

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

how do we know only the afternoon event counts?

0

RhadThebigBad

1 year ago

Question for “yes” holders- if Jenner was attending the midday ceremony, why would she say “see you all TONIGHT”?

Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Trump declares national emergency at border in first speech to nation" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyjqgl2erzo

0

Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Donald Trump has said he will declare an emergency at the US-Mexico border as one of a host of executive orders the incoming president will sign on Monday and in the coming days." https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-inauguration-trump-to-declare-national-emergency-at-us-mexico-border-in-blitz-of-executive-orders-13293054

0

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys realize that Dana White and Joe Rogan are colleagues, and look alike? Joe was in the church and will attend the party, but he is OBVIOUSLY not in the rotundra where only 700 people fit in LOL. Look at this picture! You guys saw Dana White, NOT Joe! :D https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2025/01/donald-trump-inauguration-updates-dana-white-joe-rogan-ufc

5

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So what parts of the ceremony can you think of? Cause it says "parts", right?

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Even if the church service was not to count (of course it counts to the schedule you fools :D) - do you really think the people flying in will just go home after the inauguration itself? lol

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Even if the church service was not to count (of course it counts to the schedule you fools :D) - do you really think the people flying in will just go home after the inauguration itself? lol

0

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

#JoeRogan? Found him! https://x.com/iAnonPatriot/status/1881352921973178824/photo/1

2

US inauguration on January 20?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What are the 7 "Buying 1.7 shared per 8 seconds" bots think they are doing?

0

Who will attend Trump inauguration?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

There is zero chance zuckerberg is attending this now with only 100 people attending lol

2

Will Biden finish his term?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who are the guys buying 100k shares at 0.3%? I really dont get it.

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The fuck is happening?

0

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Israeli strikes killed 77 Palestinians after the ceasefire was declared." Does it still count?! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-24

2

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Back in the comment section I mean. You were in BintJbeil I recall? ;)

1

nicekitty

1 year ago

'To count toward the resolution of this market, a ceasefire... must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict [and] must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.’ Just waiting for Netanyahu/Sinwar to issue statements and we’re done here. Thank you someone at 2c for the free Benjamin

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Stop complaining and use a gif as profile pic as every serious trader does.

3

Mr.Eggplant

1 year ago

I'm confused by this. Why is there still so much active trading and why is Other so low? The election dates are May 4 and 18, too late for this market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Romanian_presidential_election. Are people just hoping that Polymarket changes the rule for this market in the meantime?

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

People who made more money than you was rather the claim.

0

h00r11z11n2003

1 year ago

Everytime I get in one of these markets I seriously wonder how many of you people actually read the news. This has been a pretty obvious call as far back as October or even earlier. Was made more likely by Trump win but probably would have happened anyway. If you bought no, please reach out next time to someone like me before you place a similar bet in the future. Love

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

good to see you again!

0

nicekitty

1 year ago

'To count toward the resolution of this market, a ceasefire... must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict [and] must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.’ Just waiting for Netanyahu/Sinwar to issue statements and we’re done here. Thank you someone at 2c for the free Benjamin

Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

dont tell. dont ask.

0

Oxymirin

1 year ago

🚨 WARNING 🚨: For people coming from the other market: Don’t YOLO in or fall for scammers saying this market is competitive. It's not. Betting on this event happening before February 28th is an extremely speculative gamble. Lily Phillips did an interview with E! News on January 14th. In it, she explicitly confirmed that her planned 300 men event - originally scheduled for December as preparation for the 1000 men record attempt - was postponed due to problems with the organiser. Then she confirs this 300 person event is rescheduled for March 2nd. Watch the interview yourself at E! News (relevant piece is at 1:25) https://www.eonline.com/news/1412151/how-much-money-lily-phillips-makes-on-onlyfans. Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtCdtWdqiqA. This market is a 1.5-month bond, being negotiated over low exit volume. Don't bet your money without being aware of the risk.

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What the fuck are you guys doing?! This is over and nothing happens?! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/romania-to-hold-rescheduled-presidential-vote-on-may-4?srnd=phx-politics&embedded-checkout=true

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Source for this?

0

DariusPGC

1 year ago

The meeting is starting in 30 minutes, we'll have an official announcement in 2-4 hours, the market is trying to frontrun a election delay lol

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

so there is no meeting tday?

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Anyone knows when this decision is happening tday?

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Anyone knows when this decision is happening tday?

0

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The newest poll sees the afd at 21% (+2%): https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51228-cducsu-fuhrt-in-der-ersten-yougov-sonntagsfrage-des-jahres-spd-hat-kompetenz-und-vertrauensproblem

4

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why is this still below 100%?!

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

me neither. its so weird.

0

HaiCalin

1 year ago

Some bots are playing Ping Pong with "Other" option. Is this just some bots malfunctioning or wtf is happening? XD

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They are farming these rewards every day all the time - that does not necessarily lead to these crazy swings.

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why is Others with so high volume all of a sudden?

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What is volume for?

2

UgandanPatriot

1 year ago

to clarify what happens here, because the spread is bigger than 0.1, essentially bots can just trade each other between the spread lines, they're not actually losing any money tho just moving from 1 way to the other, so what happens is they get a huge volume traded for today that gives them a daily reward (a couple usd) so this guy is making a couple hundred for free

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Wait - the bots want to have the highest buy and the lowest sell order to get rewards - why would they ever buy or sell anything?

1

UgandanPatriot

1 year ago

to clarify what happens here, because the spread is bigger than 0.1, essentially bots can just trade each other between the spread lines, they're not actually losing any money tho just moving from 1 way to the other, so what happens is they get a huge volume traded for today that gives them a daily reward (a couple usd) so this guy is making a couple hundred for free

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why is Others with so high volume all of a sudden?

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

U Guys realize this market adds up to 93%?

0

Next Chancellor of Germany?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why is others locked?

1

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Guys this market adds up to 92% wtf are you doing?

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Other markets are not.

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Deposit risk is why market is under 100%. You can go on poly and ask them to add a feature where we can merge yes in all the brackets to 1 usdc though. That would be cool and would immediately get rid of the underpricing.

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Guys, let's look at this. From this list, you can tell that all candidates summed up are only 95,5%. And its not the spread. :D

0

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

its not.

2

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

which would make it 94%, if he were not included in the 93%.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?

Romania Presidential Election

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

so we are going to ignore the fact that this market adds up to 93% right now?

1

F1 2024 Drivers Champion

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Soooo no one is resolving this?

3

F1 Constructors Champion

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Fanduell has McLaren on 87%, wtf are you guys doing?!

1

Brazlian Grand Prix Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

!!!! HUGE OPPORTUNITY: UNIBET has odds already: McLaren 1.22, Ferrari 4. This equals to 80% McLaren / 20% Ferrari. Im already 3k deep intimo McLaren so cant do any more. Someone keeps on selling McLaren for 65% You are welcome! 😄 https://polymarket.com/event/f1-constructors-championship-winner/will-mclaren-win-the-2024-f1-constructors-cup?tid=1730502517966

0

F1 Constructors Champion

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

!!!! HUGE OPPORTUNITY: UNIBET has odds already: McLaren 1.22, Ferrari 4. This equals to 80% McLaren / 20% Ferrari. Im already 3k deep intimo McLaren so cant do any more. You are welcome! 😄 https://www.unibet.com/betting/sports/filter/formula_1/all/competitions

2

Who will be inaugurated as President?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

lol no rules no nothing? 😂

0

MrKangaroo

1 year ago

gotta be missing something here

AFC South Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Worst missclick of my life. Jags Yes for 91% lol. Have fun with my money.

1

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🦊 Kamala has been to FOX. She is NOT afraid of having a discussion during a podcast for sure. Added, During the Podcast with Trump, Joe said that "I could imagine her doing this show. She was supposed to do it, she might still do it and I hope she does. I would talk to her like a human being. I would try to have a conversation with her... I think we'd have a fine conversation." I am very happy buying below 10%. 📈 https://www.sportskeeda.com/mma/news-joe-rogan-says-kamala-harris-might-still-appear-jre-podcast-donald-trump-predicts-outcome-she-laying-floor-comatose

3

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Joe needs to get his twitter channel under control. Its ridiculous.

1

poolvade

1 year ago

https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1849227794284429723?s=46&t=OQQiNqbJEpVBe0Xkfp2UAA

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

She was on fox lol

0

JpY

1 year ago

No teleprompters on podcasts, they aren't townhalls

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

She was on Fox you absolute maniacs, the fuck are you talking about?!

1

LastChanceSaloon

1 year ago

I have had a bunch of doubts and second thoughts all day. I don't know why she has not announced. But maybe it's a security thing or she wants a big surprise. I have no inside info. She may not go. But I think it would be terrible strategy not to go

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The discussion here is ridiculous; what are you even talking about?!!! She was on Fox. And Joe is no Maga maniac. Ill buy everything below 10% 😄

4

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

She was on Fox. And Joe is no MAGA guy.

0

Speculo

1 year ago

GUYS, this is so sad for me, but I admit defeat... If she doesn't go to Rogan on Friday, while she's in Texas, that's over. She's not coming back. As an Harris supporter, I think this is a major blow to prefer to go to some no name podcast to discuss abortion rights again, like for the thousands time in the last 4 years, instead of going to the most popular show in the US, to talk the the young guys she needs to win the swings states. This is beyond stupidness. Yes Mountainman, I have listened to her, and while she's definitely no Obama, I think she's able to handle some laidback discussion with a nice dude like Joe... At least she should be. I can’t believe it.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🦧🦠: SOME CALCULATIONS The Virus already appeared in European 🇪🇺 countries TWICE (Sweden 🇸🇪 & Germany 🇩🇪) in the last 2 month, despite them being much, much smaller and far less connected to the Congo compared to the US. 🧮 Lets assume the chance of the Virus coming to the US in the same timeframe is approximately 80%+, making it 10% per week. 📈 Clearly, the likelihood of Mpox occurring FORE THE FIRST TIME is higher the coming week compared to any other, so the probability for next week is approximatelz 13%. 💸 With the market lasting for another 10 days, the fair value for a YES outcome is roughly 16%!

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🦠🇩🇪 BREAKING: MPOX 1B IN GERMANY!!!! 🇩🇪🦠 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-detects-first-mpox-variant-ib-case/a-70565943

0

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

F you.

0

JohnDeere

1 year ago

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doablle https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1846009714892529933.

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

oh man this is so annoying.

1

TrumpPundit

1 year ago

Trump is really a marketing genius, he's shown it again and again. Thats how he built his empire of course but him now venturing into a crypto token is super smart. Trump 🇺🇸 is involved and he's got it pinned on X — https://x.com/WorldLiberty/status/1846523584136495522

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Did Justin Bieber ever "launch" Calvin Klein Underwear? Or was he involved in its deployment?

4

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This picture of geoconfirmed (https://geoconfirmed.org/israel/8ea2df95-65c2-4ede-ae84-08dce576cadc) shows perfectly that the IDF has taken control of the strategically incredible important hill just above BintJbeil 5 days ago: https://geoconfirmed.org/israel/8ea2df95-65c2-4ede-ae84-08dce576cadc

5

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Shortly after 10 a.m. on Sunday, Hezbollah announced that it had fired shells at Israeli soldiers on Lebanese territory, in the border village of Maroun al-Ras, in the Bint Jbeil district." THE ISRAELIS HAVE THE HIGH GROUND OF MAROUN EL RAS; CONTROLLING BINT JEBEIL FROM THERE: CONFIRMED BY HISBOLLAH. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1431095/hezbollah-fires-shells-at-israeli-soldiers-in-maroun-al-ras-lebanese-territory.html

3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Shortly after 10 a.m. on Sunday, Hezbollah announced that it had fired shells at Israeli soldiers on Lebanese territory, in the border village of Maroun al-Ras, in the Bint Jbeil district." THE ISRAELIS HAVE TO HIGH GROUND OF MAROUN EL RAS; CONTROLLING BINT JEBEIL FROM THERE: CONFIRMED BY HISBOLLAH. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1431095/hezbollah-fires-shells-at-israeli-soldiers-in-maroun-al-ras-lebanese-territory.html

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Heavy Fighting between Maround El Ras and BintJbeil: https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1845488436691501548

4

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/13/israel-iran-conflict-hamas-hezbollah-lebanon-latest-news/

3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on Sunday called on the UN chief to “immediately” remove UN peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon out of “harm’s way”. ---- here we go again!

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on Sunday called on the UN chief to “immediately” remove UN peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon out of “harm’s way”. ---- here we go again!

3

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israel surrounding BintJbeil right now according to RedCrossJournalist of the Year McCarthy: https://x.com/hannahmc_carthy/status/1845157398060716417?s=46

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They dont need to enter. Stepping inside the muncipality is involving the very outskirts of BintJbeil. And they are already there. See comments.

0

Rentaswag

1 year ago

There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Right?

1

poly-murderers

1 year ago

how come the prices are so low?

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

...and yes, I am by far overinvested - because I am pretty sure the evidence is super clear, and can not understand how people see this market at 25% :D

0

FreemanR

1 year ago

Purely ground based, ok.. this does not mean infantry only though.. go to wikipedia bro. They have armour units and artillery units within the 36th, which are what likely assisted.. you gotta be too deep in to be constantly spreading bullcrap man lol

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a geolocation nerd with a new hobby, sorry! 😅

0

FreemanR

1 year ago

Purely ground based, ok.. this does not mean infantry only though.. go to wikipedia bro. They have armour units and artillery units within the 36th, which are what likely assisted.. you gotta be too deep in to be constantly spreading bullcrap man lol

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

im sorry you feel that way. 🥲

0

FreemanR

1 year ago

I am buying more, but you are a dumbass, first rate bro..

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This is early reporting, obviously, but we got another few days: "The only direct clashes between the two national armies were on Oct 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army position in the area of Bint Jbeil" https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/hezbollah-israel-battle-on-border-as-lebanon-s-army-watches-from-sidelines-124101200059_1.html

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a little reminder that this market is a $800$ bet away from being at $82 again, and there is solid evidence by IDF (https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46) and LiveMapUA that its already done. (https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon)

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a little reminder that this market is a $800$ bet away from being at $82 again, and there is solid evidence by IDF (https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46) and LiveMapUA that its already done. (https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon)

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Bulldozer Killing the Nasrallah Statue on top of maroun al ras hill: https://x.com/HamasAtrocities/status/1844297417619013705

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Here is a post confirming Israel jas already conquered the village on the hill just before BintJbeil called MarounElRas: https://x.com/osint613/status/1843646229479338364?s=46

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Here is a post confirming Israel jas already conquered the village on the hill just before BintJbeil called MarounElRas: https://x.com/osint613/status/1843646229479338364?s=46

1

Rentaswag

1 year ago

There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

here you go: https://imgur.com/a/PvXMVFl

2

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You realise there is video of Tanks in the Park of MarounElRas? So they are up the hill already. Its an advantage, if anything.

3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What are you talking about? Just google MarounElRas and BintJbeil on Google Maps. There is neither a ridge nor a deep plain between the two. There was one between the Blue Zone and MarounElRas; and its Video Confirmed they passed that.

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They don't need to enter the city center, but the outskirts of the muncipality. And there is multiple evidence they already did, e.g. on this map that has been used to clear Polymarkets about Ukraine: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-october-10-israeli-army-urges-residents-of-southern-lebanon

2

Rentaswag

1 year ago

There is little value in entering the city. The last thing the Israel Gov wants is to run into a Hezballoah trap and feed the opposition of the war.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Here is the original post of the IDF claiming that bombing BintJbeil was done "in cooperation with the 36th Division". Its a regular, purely ground based army division of the IDF. YES! https://x.com/idfonline/status/1841748183426179565?s=46

4

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You heard about the "Invade Lebanon" dispute, right?

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

99% of the time "too early" is used when it proposed before the deadline, not after

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"too early to call"

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

Polymarkert and UMA resolve markets based on the info available at the end of the market this case next 3 days. They do not wait a long time

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You ever heard about disputes?

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

Polymarkert and UMA resolve markets based on the info available at the end of the market this case next 3 days. They do not wait a long time

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The 36th is already in BintJbeil. It's still classified though. This market might take a long time to resolve, but one thing is for sure: Israeli Boots have entered the muncipality of BintJbeil days ago. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823968

4

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"What I saw in southern Lebanon on Thursday was complete IDF supremacy on the ground – and in record time.The very fact that the IDF felt it was safe to bring reporters in, and only 11 days since the invasion began, was itself a stunning result that could not have been foreseen in advance – a show of IDF dominance and confidence." https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1844423230402203992?s=46

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why did I went all in at 33ct? This is such a juicy price 😭

0

Aquati

1 year ago

BREAKING: YnetNews: About a week ago, Golani fighters arrived in Maroun al-Ras, a location that became a symbol during the Second Lebanon War, even in Israel. The IDF achieved relatively swift operational control in the village, allowing for convenient movement in the hostile village at the ridge's peak, extending to the nearby town of Bint Jbeil https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/hj91wmv11x#autoplay

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys seem to be very confused about what a muncipality is: "The Ponce City Hall, in the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico, is the seat of the government for both the city and the surrounding barrios making up the municipality." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Municipality

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"The Ponce City Hall, in the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico, is the seat of the government for both the city and the surrounding barrios making up the municipality." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Municipality

0

FreemanR

1 year ago

Brother a municipality is the town/ciry, NOT province, which is what the article you linked describes..

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Google what a muncipality is. It is *NOT* the city. Look at LiveUAmap, you will see the borders (and that the IDF is already there) there.

0

FreemanR

1 year ago

You wrong again brother, read more carefully.. also understand that the province and city have the same name, though we are only betting on the city here...

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What are you talking about?! This is a direct quote from the linked article LOL "The only direct clash between the two national armies occurred on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army post also in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier and prompting Lebanese soldiers to return fire."

0

jowrex

1 year ago

I did read and it sais airstrike . Not in bent jbeil

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Another incident. Read the article. ABCNews is a huge american news outlet. This is reliable.

3

jowrex

1 year ago

It wasnt a tank . It was an airstrike that killed 2 lebanon army

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

WE GOT PROOF!!! "The only direct clash between the two national armies occurred on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army post also in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier and prompting Lebanese soldiers to return fire." https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-deadliest-strike-central-beirut-leaves-lebanese-stunned-114712851

3

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

$358 left! 😁

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It only costs $850 to get this market to $81 again; i might feel lucky tomorrow 💰 📈

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"On Thursday, the IDF for the first time brought Israeli journalists into a village in southern Lebanon, a clear indication that it feels it has asserted operational control over the area. Other signs of the new reality abound. Israel has cut a series of openings into the border fence for IDF vehicles to cross into Lebanon, and the gaps are now entirely unguarded. It brought the journalists into enemy territory in open Hummers, with no fear of snipers or mines" https://www.timesofisrael.com/finally-on-the-offensive-idfs-91st-division-slices-through-hezbollahs-front-lines/amp/

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It only costs $850 to get this market to $81 again; i might feel lucky tomorrow 💰 📈

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And if you still think the Israelis have a hard time conquering the border villages, look at this legend casually strolling around lebanese territory. BinJbeil is only 2 miles from the blue zone! https://youtu.be/-aJQGmatsfA?si=OMysI2K0v29SAnT2

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Finally, this map - that has been used to solve other markets (Ukrain war etc.) before - shows Israeli Control Zones touching BintJbeil since 2 days, despite lagging behind a few days for OpSec reasons. No Holders must be tripping buying at 70%?! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They went north. See comment above. "No" lol 😄

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

A UNIFIL spokesperson told me that the Israeli army had withdrawn from its position in the southern Lebanon town of Maroun al-Ras, where it had earlier raised an Israeli flag. "We can’t independently verify where they moved to," UNIFIL said. Source is a pretty reliable lebanese journalist: https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Holding Yes in this market is basically saying we have something close to a world war 3 within the next 3 month. 40% for that?! Seriously?!

3

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The "IDF retreats/withdraws" from UNIFIL positions myth is already debunked. The IDF moved its tanks "north": Check you maps where north of Maroun El Ras is lol https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1k7gkd0r3zo

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The "retreat" myth is already debunked. The IDF moved its tanks "north": Check you maps where north of Maroun El Ras is lol https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1k7gkd0r3zo

0

dav1

1 year ago

or they retreated...

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys realize this market is about "Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality", not about conquering the city centre, right? And there needs to be evidence "this happened before October 16th 06:49am" local time? Report about a single raid in BintJbeils Suburbs will be enough. And this will be disputed till October 20th+ if necessary to be clear what actually happened. Im giving it 90%+, and there is a reason this market was already there.

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I cant buy anymore for Bankroll Management reasons, probably too conservative. But you No buyers at 75% are completely insane: "Hezbollah is continuing to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF as the IDF expands the breadth of ground operations in southern Lebanon." reports the Institute for the study of war. https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1844186506736361545?s=46

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Raids deep into southern lebanon" reports the biggest arabian News Outlet with 16M followers: Israeli raids on border towns and deep in southern Lebanon resume after a relatively quiet night." https://x.com/alarabiya/status/1844347145047970003?s=46

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"as Israel expands its ground incursion into Lebanon" https://x.com/washtimes/status/1844139366337196404?s=46

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What the hell is going on? All im reading is very much in the "definitely in BJ already, just no reporting yet?! (Which is normal as the IDF always reports with a time lag! ""Israeli sources have reported that Hezbollah forces will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF. The IDF 36th Division commander similarly noted that some Hezbollah militants withdraw deeper into Lebanon while others flee outright." https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1844356671742640230

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

ISRAELI SECURITY CABINET EXPECTED TO APPROVE ISRAEL’S RESPONSE PLAN TO IRAN https://x.com/deitaone/status/1844402802467967363?s=46

0

Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its a scam.

0

PolymarketApp

1 year ago

Have you seen that guys? https://x.com/polymarket_news/status/1844119366717370865

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its a scam. dont do it.

0

CharlesGalloway

1 year ago

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/DefiantNews_io/status/1844068113450762423

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its not about if they attack, its about what they attack. and they will know that tonight. https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1844359114392207676

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Security Council to meet tonight. Last time they met, the attack happened within 24hs. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-824052

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

fuck.

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I sold 1.5k YES: Though im pretty sure there will be boots in BintJbeil before October 16th, I very much doubt that the IDF will report so before having significant success. BintJbeil was a disaster for the IDF in 2006. They need to win the media war. No reporting before they own Bint. Good luck to all yes holders though; theoretically, you are right.

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

?

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

@Foreseeable. godspeed

AFC South Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who are the Jaguar Maniacs betting higher than in any Sportsbook despite rake?! 😂

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

BREAKING Aljazeera publishing a video of a tank grinding through the tiny village (40 buildings) just in front of BintJbeil. This video has just been relreased an hour ago. https://x.com/reportnewsgaza/status/1843978036905177318?s=46

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

YNET is one of the mayor israeli newspapers. This piece describes how they are already building roads for further operations towards BintJbeil within lebanese territory! https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hygjzdmyje

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The reporting that Israel "retreated" from Maroun El Ras (right on the border to BintJbeil) is false - they only moved their troops away from the UN Forces (parking there with 50+ vehicles was kind of a geopolitical scandal)! They wanted the UN to leave, taking their base as a forward position. The UN refused. Then they moved on TOWARDS THE CITY: https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/socialsharing-limericklive/1625571/situation-becomes-relatively-calm-for-irish-peacekeepers-as-idf-withdraw-from-irish-un-post.html

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The most relevant war mapping provider LIVEUAMAP already shows parts of BintJbeil being an Israeli Control zone since 3 days - this alone could be enough for a yes if we dont get further evidence in the next 6 days: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/en/2024/9-october-06-hezbollah-we-bombed-a-gathering-of-israeli-soldiers

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israelis are now moving forward north of BintJbeil aswell according to Hezbollah. https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1843961782689575345

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israelis are now moving forward north of BintJbeil aswell according to Hezbollah. https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1843961782689575345

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

See the 450 at 63ct? Thats me! Reasoning in the replies:

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

See the 450 at 63ct? Thats me! Reasoning in the replies:

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

fuck. Where do you get the UN Spokesman story from_

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

I don't think the map on https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ is correct. They apparently set up the Flag in the Maroun El Ras Park (geolocated), which is literally just 300m from the border and just the beginning of the village Maroun El Ras. Then someone tweeted about an UN Spokesman telling them that they even retreaded from there 3h ago. The last part could also be fake news, but I see more value on No right now.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

WTF happened Kobafix? :(

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Fuck!

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It most definetely is not. :D

0

Cedarville

1 year ago

Isn’t Marion Al-Ras in the district of Bint Jbeil? Isn’t this already resolved?

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

But how will we see "credible reporting"? As in "There has been small arms fighting around BinJbeil - would that be enough? Not really, right?

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

"however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." I don't think there will anyone be anyone dumb enough to dispute a yes decision here and risk 750 dollars.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

damn. :D

0

CheerfulPessimist

1 year ago

I feared the same, that's why I sold all my shares. Good luck to you though!

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D

3

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

who is bro who did not understand this? :D

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

Bro you should have learned from Invasion market that prices mean nothing, especially in this Low liquidity market

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

(no pun intended :D )

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🐁 leaving the sinking ship.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

🐁 leaving the sinking ship.

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

$500 will push this market to 95% now lol :D Congrats guys! I love poly :)

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Of course they did. You dont casually park your tanks somewhere if the frontline is 300m away.

1

Adrimarket

1 year ago

agreed, they might even have already entered bint jbeil

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

oh man. i wanted to be the one finding this post first :D

0

Adrimarket

1 year ago

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1843646229479338364 Maroun al-ras is under israel control (look at where bint jbeil is)

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a quick reminder to the no folks: This is *not* a market for conquering the City Center of BintJbeil, it *is* about ENTERING the larger area around Bint Jbeli. If they build a fort in the neighboring village and casually park their tanks there, you can deduct its most probably not the frontline anymore :D

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

are you on discord? Same Nickname!

0

nicekitty

1 year ago

small fish in a big pond my friend

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Thank god for NiceKitty!

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just look how close the israeli ZONE OF CONTROL already is. https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843525291433758759/photo/1

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Sattelite Imagery of the israeli base right at the border to Bint Jbeil, just casually parking "on the frontline" (that actually runs through BintJbeil already). https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843519820832354368 This one even shows they have secured the main street to BintJbeil 3 days ago. Its like 500m from the Muncipality border there. https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1843511753969459403/photo/1 They are even building roads there LOL :D

3

Super Bowl Champion 2025

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

AFC South Market: Jags are at 5% on Fanduell Sportsbook, even lower than the Titans. Im too deep already, so go for it! :D Fanduell Market: https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=divisions Poly: https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south/will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-win-the-afc-south?tid=1728378929048

0

AFC South Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Jags are at 5% on Fanduell Sportsbook, even lower than the Titans. Im too deep already, so go for it! :D https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=divisions

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market not moving at all LOL https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-october/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-october?tid=1728341108968

1

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Guys?! https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843426151521484850

1

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://x.com/CWBOCA/status/1843424850620330012

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843424005312663579

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Nuke facility in Isfahan"

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Nuke facility in Isfahan"

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys are slow. https://x.com/adam7867862/status/1843423092506517622

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Ask yourself why you bet the same bs! :D

0

denizz

1 year ago

conspiratard spotted

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

me?

0

cashy

1 year ago

hey man - please respond on Twitter

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Where do you got that "going around" story from?

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

Bint Jbeil It’s very important to clamping down the arms movement of Hezbollah. The idea they are going to skip it and go around is laughable

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They might in fact not conquer the complete city first and only then move on, but surpassing it without any engagement to control for ambushes from behind? But not touching the muncipality?! Never!

1

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

Bint Jbeil It’s very important to clamping down the arms movement of Hezbollah. The idea they are going to skip it and go around is laughable

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Go to Google Maps. Look at Bint Jbeil. And then tell me again that you think it is a "city". If you further google it, you will find that its considered the "Hezbollah Stronghold" in the Lebanese South. You really think the Israelis will not enter its Muncipality?! :D

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

IDF: "are not going to Beirut. We’re not going to the cities in southern Lebanon. We are focusing on the area of those villages, the area next to our border. We will do in this area what is necessary to dismantle and demolish Hezbollah’s infrastructure" Bint Jbeil population: 30k not really a village

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How can you read this article, and then look at the LiveuaMap of lebanon, and then decide to bet "No" at 69%? lol "Although Israel has insisted its week-long ground operation was to be “limited” and “targeted”, elements of three divisions are now involved in the fighting after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that its 91st Division had joined the ground incursion overnight." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/07/israeli-troop-reinforcements-cast-doubt-over-limited-lebanon-invasion

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I am super new to this site and knees deep into the market, so I will not invest another $750. The more lucrative way would be to buy the market till 99ct anyway :D But can you elaborate why you hold NO despite reasonable evidence that they are already there, and 7 days to go until the market closes? (It can even go "too early" for a couple of days as we learned from the Israel Invades Lebanon market lol)

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

you are free to propose and see what UMA decide

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Little further hint: Liveuamap has been used to solve markets before for the War in Ukraine.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Evidence for Israeli troops in the muncipality: https://lebanon.liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-october-hezbollah-announces-targeting-a-gathering-of-israeli

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

LiveuMap Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/aHneBen

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market is not about conquering BINT JBEIL, but about " Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality". Liveupmap already proofs that they are, and we got another 8 (!!!) days for further evidence. Im already knees deep invested, but this market at 68% is just bonkers :D

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market is not about conquering BINT JBEIL, but about " Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality". Liveupmap already proofs that they are, and we got another 8 (!!!) days for further evidence. Im already knees deep invested, but this market at 68% is just bonkers :D

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How is israel supposed to cross the 200 mittens?! like ever?! thats why I sold.

0

Scrungey

1 year ago

200 kittens 🐱 miaow

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

@forseeable_pm

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

If anything has been proven, it is clear Israel continues to push into Lebanon. The October 7th is here. Should be interesting.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

add me on twitter dude :D

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

If anything has been proven, it is clear Israel continues to push into Lebanon. The October 7th is here. Should be interesting.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You dont think they will enter the Muncipality in the next 10 days despite livemap saying they already did_

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

I dont think they will do it but not gonna bet

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Im 99% sure this is a scam.

1

SylvesterStallone

1 year ago

Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/AlphaNews_io/status/1842579398282871238

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

i will not invest another $750 in this lol :D

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 year ago

you can propose if you are so sure :)

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

and another geolocated source: https://x.com/Stinky915846091/status/1842988819446112612/photo/1

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Read the rules and release me - its enough for them to "enter the MUNCIPALITY of Bint Jbeil" - and they did that. I was never 1.5k deep into a position, sweating blood here :D

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And here you can see that they are also entering BintJbeil from the west: https://x.com/JCGRELET/status/1843027015055610109

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

BREAKING NEWS of Bint Jbeil: (Im aready all in, sweating blood LOL). You can see here: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ That the Israelis are already here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15?tid=1728246547108

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Stop fighting about this market. Better invest in the BREAKING NEWS of Bint Jbeil: (Im aready all in, sweating blood LOL). You can see here: https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ That the Israelis are already here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15/will-israeli-troops-enter-bint-jbeil-by-october-15?tid=1728246547108

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Look at this map - they are in already! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/

2

AFC South Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They listened to you LOL

0

fate

1 year ago

Jags - 26% chance to make the playoffs, 1.1% chance to win the SB -- IT SEEMS LIKE THE JAGS ARE MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED

AFC Champion

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/football/futures/

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner" - Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

AFC North Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

AFC West Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

NFC East Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

SOMETHING FAR OFF in the market “AFC South Winner” – The Jags are at 14%, though pinnacle and ALL sportbetters have them at like 5%. Im 3k in, cant do anymore. Cheers! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

AFC East Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner" - Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

Super Bowl Champion 2025

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner": Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

AFC South Winner

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lol guys there is something far off in the Market "AFC South Winner": Jags are at 14%, though Pinnacle et al see them at 5% at best. Im 3k in and cant invest anymore for Bankrollmanagement reasons. You are welcome! :D https://polymarket.com/event/afc-south?tid=1728229321417

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

what?

0

Shayku

1 year ago

He wasn't claimed the Nov market yet...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Does anyone know anything about CHAD? Without him, this market would be dead since days! Does he know Whales? Will he be able to push Poly for a veto on UMA votes? Why would he bet a million against all the most successfull guys in the business?

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://imgur.com/a/JvLPmM4

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This Map is obviously lacking behind. But they are already making significant progress. Reporting of fighting inside the 50-houses "Maroun al Ras" just in front of Bint Jbeil. Its like 1km to the edge of "the MUNCIPALITY (!!!) of Bint Jbeil"!! Picture attached! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This Map is obviously lacking behind. But they are already making significant progress. Reporting of fighting inside the 50-houses "Maroun al Ras" just in front of Bint Jbeil. Its like 1km to the edge of "the MUNCIPALITY (!!!) of Bint Jbeil"!! Picture attached! https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The IDF has killed "More than 250 Hezbollah operatives" during Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon since troops began a ground offensive" according to Times of Israel. You guys are telling me they dont make 3miles of progress on the most significant town of this war? (https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-over-250-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-southern-lebanon-ground-offensive/

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Chad is the only one ruling this kingdom. Yes would be dead without him.

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The Wiki Article on the battle of Jint Jbeil is acutally super interesting. It is considered the Hezbollah Stronghold in the south of Lebanon, and the military focus is on winning the lost battle of 2006 this time./

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Maroun al Raz is literally a small village with 40 houses, and the only thing on the mile between the IDF and Bint Jbeil.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Maroun al Raz is literally a small village with 40 houses, and the only thing on the mile between the IDF and Bint Jbeil.

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I cant go any deeper for bankroll management reasoning, but 50% is craaaaazy - I assume you guys have not done your homework? Its another 10 days LOL

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

There is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

There is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I cant go any deeper for bankroll management reasoning, but 50% is craaaaazy :D

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I assume you guys have not done your homework to know that there is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I assume you guys have not done your homework to know that there is boots on the ground reported already not even 1km away from the edge of the e municipality of Bint Jbeil?! https://imgur.com/a/HxJt3HV

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Get a real job, MasterQueef!! :D

0

Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What the F does "give a speech" mean? If he says hello to everyone and f*s of, is that a speech?

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow before November?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Hit me up on twitter, I guess you repaired it? Sorry man :D

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I wonder what these bombardements are for? https://x.com/RichardHardigan/status/1842515152874176551

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The fuck is happening?! Any news?

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

@Art WHAT DO YOU KNOW MATE?

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its an honor meeting you, sir. Glad you always invade 3hs before the end of the month! 😂

1

BibiNetanyahu

1 year ago

ez money?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

shoul have bet more i guess xD 2% seems incredibly low to me

0

BibiNetanyahu

1 year ago

ez money?

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If they go for the nuclear sites, we have other problems than Poly... https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1842319067455144234

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

HOLY SHIT IS IT HAPPENING?!?

0

Israel military action against Yemen before November?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://x.com/HuntersOfNazis/status/1842231435412828555

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market was at 62% YES, and since then the US/Brits hit the Huthis in Yemen. There is absolutely no reason why this market should not go back to 62%, if not lower: While the US would NEVER attack Iran/Hisbollah directly, they are totally capable of dealing with the houthies for Israel, who can focus on South-lebanon and Iran. Give me more shares. Im Buying.

Israel military action against Yemen before November?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market was at 62% YES, and since then the US/Brits hit the Huthis in Yemen. There is absolutely no reason why this market should not go back to 62%, if not lower: While the US would NEVER attack Iran/Hisbollah directly, they are totally capable of dealing with the houthies for Israel, who can focus on South-lebanon and Iran. Give me more shares. Im Buying.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Regarding the whole "Military action to take control"; lets have a look at a standard literature about the war in lebanon in 2006: "Initially, Israel had no intention of capturing Bint Jbeil. Rather, the IDF sought to CONTROL the city from outside." Its from a academic journal: Kober, Avi (2008). The Israel Defense Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance?. The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 31, No. 1, 3 – 40, p 28 Find it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bint_Jbeil

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If you like, just bet and HODL till the end with what you think is right. no reason to trade too much.

0

FamilyCapital

1 year ago

I guess this website is more about trade on news or activity in comment section, and not about betting.

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

50pence about to nuke teherani nuclear reactors on his own.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I used to have a lot of yes, now I am out because I dront trust the process. :(

1

ncap

1 year ago

hahahahha why did you had ,,No" shares 2min ago

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Sounds like an invasion "intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" to me... “We are very determined to destroy this infrastructure and eliminate anyone present there. We will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself in these places,” the military chief said. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-war-lebanon-10-03-24-intl-hnk/index.html?t=1727985197086

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

i dont understand this sale at all. yesterday was Jewish new year, it was completely clear to me that if they attack, they will do it tonight. Thougt people would appreciate that with their 50% evaluation, apparently they did not. Important: This is until 06:59am of 4th of October due to different time zone. Im Hyped.

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

How did I miss such a sale? Damn.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

LINK

0

Butterpickledhead

1 year ago

The IDF spokesman officially announces the entry of troops into bint jbeil

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

2 soldiers died while defending Bint Jbeil; the icon on livemap is AK47, symbol for ground fighting?! https://imgur.com/a/m2K4mYl

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lebanese army says another soldier killed by the "Israeli enemy" targeting an ARMY BASE IN BINT JBEIL!!!! x.com/The_NewArab/status/1841827582573965714

1

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Lebanese army says another soldier killed by the "Israeli enemy" targeting an army base in Bint Jbeil areahttps://x.com/The_NewArab/status/1841827582573965714

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://x.com/forseeable_pm ;)

0

McLarry

1 year ago

hey guys, take a look at my funny picture. Markets are the best reflection of reality and UMA is a truth machine https://imgur.com/a/LHDxBHs

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

sooooo you are german? Best from Berlin! :D

3

McLarry

1 year ago

hey guys, take a look at my funny picture. Markets are the best reflection of reality and UMA is a truth machine https://imgur.com/a/LHDxBHs

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Remember when right after the raid of bin laden america moved in on the border with pakistan to take control of the border area because killing bin laden was just the first step of an invasion? Me neither. Because its a completely different case.

0

Amok

1 year ago

To those who don't understand the difference between a raid and an invasion: Remember when the US killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011? US soldiers entered Pakistan, attacked Bin Laden's hideout, killed him, then pulled back out. Does that mean the US invaded Pakistan, let alone tried to "establish control" oder Pakistan? Of course not. Same with the Israeli raids into Lebanon during the night of Sep 30 / Oct 1. They went in an pulled their troops back out. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c This market is about Israel attacking with intent to either annex or occupy a part of Lebanon to establish a "buffer zone". The IDF has not laid out such plans yet. Therefore this can only resolve NO

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Not sure if you are genuinely nice,

0

mr.ozi

1 year ago

Hey friends. Given the P4 vote on the current proposal, it's extremely likely we are seeing this market resolving to P2 (No) in the next round. I don't mean to get into the argument about the substance of this market, I just feel some care towards your money, in case you're putting them in because you believe in the criteria being met for a Yes. This market will be resolved by UMA token holders, and they will vote No, given they voted P4 at first. The P4 means that they judged that there was not enough evidence for a Yes at the time, and we got no new game-changing evidence in the meantime. So, save yourself some money, the voters have spoken, and we're soon going into a No. That's why we're trading at 0.85+ for a No.

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

To Oil and Gas people buying at 34%: You realise there is a market of Israel attacking *ANYTHING* in the same timeframe at 38% right now?! You will win this one if Israel just attacks some random Military Airport (as it has done in the past), and loose your Oil and Gas bet! https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday/israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday

2

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Can the General Link the inital source of his screenshot? :D

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

Just need Israel to cross this green line if I’m reading the rules right. I was earlier thinking it couldn’t happen but seeing how much they have pushed in I could see them looping around into the municipality https://imgur.com/a/msD6uei

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

That was not exactly the question. But where? xD

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

1 year ago

You can buy them

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Sooooo who has got the UMA tokens exactly? :D

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If the evacuation & medic point is only 2km away from the area, you can very much assume that the fighting is already going on there.

0

Sakuya

1 year ago

It doesn't, as those are separate towns.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This dudes reporting is based on geolocated Telegram Videos et al. - they are already there fighting, as the frontline (where they do raids from) is super close. Please look at the rules; they dont need to be at the city center, but "physically enter the MUNCIPALITY of Bint Jbeil", which is including the surroundings. https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/1841496571659071513/photo/2

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They have a medical evacuation station 2.5km from Bint Jbeil! https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1841435182420684871

0

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack" https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-mulling-attacks-on-iran-oil-rigs-nuclear-sites-in-response-to-missile-attack/

2

What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The Gap between Oil and Nuclear research facilities seems bonkers to me. They attacked them in the past already.

0

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You convinced me with this one! cheers!

2

DFK

1 year ago

I'm new here, so Hello. Here is my take. Not going to happen (obviously), but 79c 4 months away is probably not the best we can get. I think this kind of market gets juicy towards the end of Biden's term, when the cray-cray think it will happen. So: safe now, but I'd bet on a better entry point when some news hits, about Hunter's sentencing or about Biden's sanity.

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

where did u get these coordinates from?

0

Aquati

1 year ago

33.11442, 35.44490 are the coordinades of the municipality border between Bint Jbeil and Maroun al-Ras

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

" The 36th Armored Division has crossed the border into Lebanon, probably north of the 2nd closed military zone that was introduced last night. It's a ~50km^2 area just 2km south of Bint Jbeil."

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Another 2km to go seems preeeeeety close to me https://x.com/thetimapping/status/1841445787563155848?s=46

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Another 2km to go seems preeeeeety close to me https://x.com/thetimapping/status/1841445787563155848?s=46

0

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

From Avivim Israel to BintJbeil Lebanon its a 82 minutes WALK of less than 4 miles lol

0

General.William.T.Sherman

1 year ago

Look at a map. There are plenty of villages before Bint Jbeil. We have questionable news Israel has crossed the border. If they have it cannot be too far in as we have little to no evidence.

Who will speak more at VP Debate?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So its Walz with 40:42 vs 38:51 Vance, where do I propose? https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/speaking-times-vance-walz-debate-dg/index.html

0

Israel military response against Iran today?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Give more info pls.

0

semi

1 year ago

Free alpha alert: this is a very bad translation. Look for the full statement.

Israel military response against Iran today?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

what do you mean?

0

Bink_7

1 year ago

Context is in way of which they’ve been doing for months

Israel military response against Iran today?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Are you guys even reading the news? "Israeli media report Israel military will conduct 'powerful strikes' tonight throughout the Middle East" https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-media-report-israel-military-will-conduct-powerful-strikes-tonight-2024-10-01/

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

i dont understand what this means.

2

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 year ago

PSA: If you are stating an opinion at #evidence-rationale on UMA Discord on ANY of the Israel enters/invades Lebanon markets, you CAN NOT argue for P1 because the proposals were contested before the markets expired

Iran strike on Israel today?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I would be all over this YES market, but all the geniusses are on NO, so im afraid.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Where does the article proof your "Control"?

0

McLarry

1 year ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-announces-launch-of-limited-ground-raids-of-hezbollah-sites-across-lebanon-border/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who is chad?

0

Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys read the rules, right? "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." This is *NEVER* happening.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

The "Israel enters Beirut this month (Special Forces Excluded in rules) is even better: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31

0

McLarry

1 year ago

Anyone who believes that there are no troops in Lebanon at all can still buy very cheap no-shares in the “Will Forces enter Lebanon market”. Have fun and good luck

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

As some guys here still think that Israel has not entered anything ever at all: There is a Market for "Israeli regular troops enter Beirut by end of the month". Rules explicitly state that "Special forces" dont count. Follow this Link for a Statement by IDF that they dont aim for Beirut: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-spokesman-israeli-troops-are-not-going-to-beirut-ground-op-will-be-as-short-as-we-can/ The Beirut Market with free 10% is here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

As some guys here still think that Israel has not entered anything ever at all: There is a Market for "Israeli regular troops enter Beirut by end of the month". Rules explicitly state that "Special forces" dont count. Follow this Link for a Statement by IDF that they dont aim for Beirut: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-spokesman-israeli-troops-are-not-going-to-beirut-ground-op-will-be-as-short-as-we-can/ The Beirut Market with free 10% is here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31

0

Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Right now, people are even debating wether there is an invasion going on. lol

3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Israel launches ground incursion into South Lebanon, says it is not going to Beirut" https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/

Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Israel launches ground incursion into South Lebanon, says it is not going to Beirut" https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

THE RULES OF THE MARKET WILL BE OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION BY ISRAEL - So lets ask them:"We are continuing to operate to dismantle Hamas's capabilities to ensure they can never again carry out a massacre against us. And, we are intensively operating against the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon in order to enable the residents of northern Israel to return home in safety and security. These are our missions and we are determined to fulfil them." How on earth could you not read this as "taking control of the border region to prevent Hisbollah from operating in the future?" https://www.idf.il/235337

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This does not say there were no crossings. It just says "stop doing it"

0

Dr.ChristmasJones

1 year ago

https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-statement-1-october-2024

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

So far, there isnt even proof of this being an invasion. So it might be quite a NO.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Do we need proof this happened by october 15th, or will this be disputed to see wether there is solid proof for them having entered before October 15th?

Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Do we need proof this happened by october 15th, or will this be disputed to see wether there is solid proof for them having entered before October 15th?

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

As you are a trustworthy person and great musician, i sold.

0

PDIDDY

1 year ago

you will lose buddy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

As you are a trustworthy person, i just sold.

0

PDIDDY

1 year ago

you will lose buddy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Will this dispute last for 1d 13hs? I need the money. :D

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

50-50, one might say

0

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

This was once a market about a possible invasion and occupation of Lebanon. Now it is a market about the probability of UMA resolving one way or another... and that's a totally different gamble ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I sold and here is why: This market is going crazy given that the rules state that the operation needs to be “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. Even if they attack today (which is still maximum 50/50), its not even clear if it would count. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This will be disputed. And new evidence will come up the next 48hs while it is. Easy.

1

x3x3

1 year ago

Also 6 hours left to get more confirmations

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Restart the browser, delete the cache, log out and in again.

2

Phoenix777

1 year ago

Bought my shares 30min ago, but when i try to sell, the poly shows zero shares, am i the onlyone haveing this problem?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166

0

Car

1 year ago

Establish control over any portion of Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This market is going crazy: “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"It was not to establish control"

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This will take for forever LOL :D

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This will take for forever LOL :D

0

Phat.

1 year ago

who's holding till its resolved ?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You guys realize the market for an actual invasion is at 35% already?! :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727715745370

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

“I’m more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a cease-fire, now,” Biden said. -- Is Bibbi that much of a badass? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I will go for another 2k with my winnings from the enter market if someone explains to me it does lol :D

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"After operations into Lebanese villages along the border – known as the Blue Line - the Israeli troops are expected to pull back into Israel." This does not sound like "to establish control" to me, does it? https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"After operations into Lebanese villages along the border – known as the Blue Line - the Israeli troops are expected to pull back into Israel." This does not sound like "to establish control" to me, does it? https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Biden urges Israel to stop raids in Lebanon" https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Even the "enters" market is only at 87% lol! https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727715461629

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I sold and here is why: This market is going crazy given that the rules state that the operation needs to be “intended to ESTABLISH CONTROL over any portion of Lebanon”. Yet, Israel has agreed with the US to only do a LIMITED ground operation that is *NOT* targeted “to establish control”, but ONLY to clear areas at the border from Hisbollah sources to prevent further attacks on Israeli Villages. Even if they attack today (which is still maximum 50/50), its not even clear if it would count. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-updates-idf-confirms-new-attacks/?id=114341295&entryId=114355166

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If this keeps on falling the "will invade today" market will be higher than the "enters" market :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727712058733

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You know what will also happen in this escalation within the next 24hs for much more than 3%? Iran hits Israel, as it has in the past as retalliation. https://polymarket.com/event/iran-military-response-before-october/iran-military-response-before-october?tid=1727711343710

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Source?

0

kekkone

1 year ago

Israeli milbloggers now say the invasion will begin within 72 hours. This market closed in 13. GL all.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

On the ground reporting. https://x.com/Zachonearth/status/1840750644036079654

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

New Information, new recommendations! Car is a quick learner. Be like Car!

0

Justifax

1 year ago

car pumping YES after telling everyone to buy the 8% bond on NO takes the fucking cake

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Will they INVADE till tomorrow 07:00am? I have a clear thought about this honestly :D https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Stop arguing about this. Its ridiculous. Switch to the other market, which will be the next boom :D https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Stop arguing about this. Its ridiculous. Switch to the other market, which will be the next boom :D https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

There is another market to lose money on! https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727695472876

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515

0

NotJustKen

1 year ago

Fuck this. Going on vacation for few days. Won't open it till then. Fuck the truth as well. My only hope is Pence manipulating the market. Jerusalem Post cleared it that it was to "gain information" not to engage in combat. I don't know how it will resolve to Yes.. Peace out.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

On another note: Do you guys have issues with the servers aswell? Sometimes my positions disappear and i got a heart attack because it says my portfolio shrunk by 2k :D Also, stock amount is sometimes off, or it doesnt show activity? Happens for me in multiple networks, from multiple devices etc.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Welcome Back! :D

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

Whew

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why would you sell everything at once? doesnt that massively destroy equity? :D

0

HaterzLoserz

1 year ago

I did in fact sell, price was too good considering the dispute and level of reporting around the special ops. If you compare price here to november invasion market, it just doesnt really make sense for an extra few % to push it for a day, rather than a month of window. if you can get out at a decent price, consider the move to november market is my advice. But idk shit :P

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

lol

0

BiggestBidenFan

1 year ago

Wrong location dude

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

JustSomeGuy just sold his NO for 85. He obviously doesnt know about the fake dump, i guess? :D

0

n/a

1 year ago

HatersLozers just sold his entire position, 50-Pence and aenews is next. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It must be so hard to have bought at 90% No feeling all smart.

2

n/a

1 year ago

This market got manipulated to hell. 50-Pence, aenews and the rest of the whales will dump on all of you before this gets resolved. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

49 minutes ago: Israeli ground operation very much on the table. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If you want to earn further money, here is another market on "Israel is totally not using the 5000 tanks on the border within the next 24hs despite saying so" https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727694319936

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If you want to earn further money, here is another market on "Israel is totally not using the 5000 tanks on the border within the next 24hs despite saying so" https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727694319936

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Said the guy who bought 90% no 3hs ago. I can relate.

1

n/a

1 year ago

It would be a complete joke for this to resolve to "Yes".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Dude are you serious?! 47minutes ago: "Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

0

ThisIsSparta

1 year ago

And these actions were not "combat operations".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I hate bankroll management. Im not deep enough in this market.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Pretty sure a raid is a combat operation. And if a raid is only 1/3 of a combat operation, 3 raids are one.

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

47minutes ago: "Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

47minutes ago: "Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

thats why it should be at 95% rather than 99.5%, i see you selling your Nos, CAR!

0

Car

1 year ago

So, no time mentioned in all articles + no clear reason why they explored the tunnels. So far not enough to resolve to Y

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just parking here. 3% chance of invasion! https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1840628965041688686?s=46

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its called fog of war. Its secret operations, and there are obviously no reporters with them. 21 million follower AljazeeraArabia quoted Hisbollah on shooting israeli soldiers that came across the border. Evidence is in the comments.

0

galba

1 year ago

logically speaking, every single media including twitter would've blown up with pictures of Israeli soldiers if there were one. I don't see any and even the gov says they haven't decided yet so..

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Invasion is another market. Israeli boots crossing the border will be sufficient according to rules.

0

aced

1 year ago

"While Israel has not announced a ground incursion into Lebanon..." you might have a chance for the november market

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Now even times of israel supports there are boots on the ground. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-may-have-already-begun-small-raids-on-hezbollah-in-south-lebanon-reports/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

even times of israel supports it. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-may-have-already-begun-small-raids-on-hezbollah-in-south-lebanon-reports/

0

abdendriel

1 year ago

Hezbollah said it happened. And they’re listed as a source in the rules. Telegraph also says Israel said it happened during a briefing.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You sold? 🥲

0

Remontada

1 year ago

50-P

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Soooo how often were these SpecOps attacked by Artillery with a 25mil follower arabic account claiming there was fighting going on in south lebanon & the telegraph supporting that claim? Can you give a link?

0

kekkone

1 year ago

Israeli Special Ops have operated in Lebanon pretty much non stop since 2006. If that was what the market was about, it would have been resolved already on day 1. We are not going to get further evidence regarding possible SOF raids.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

link.

0

DeucePapi

1 year ago

Major attack happening in Beirut now. 1am Israel time. This could be the night

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops."

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

But Israeli officials even confirmed this with TheTelegraph!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

But Israeli officials even confirmed this with TheTelegraph!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news

0

Justifax

1 year ago

The problem is nobody believes Hezbollah, as they are a known terrorist group that kills people

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I am pretty new to Polymarket, so this does not male any sense to me. I post solid evidence, and the market falls to 16%... The *** is going on?! Unfortunately, I am all in already Bankroll wise 😂😂

1

Remontada

1 year ago

Can I also just point out the rules - The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel ... - Hezbollah have said the IDF crossed the border!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Did military personnel enter libanon for a combat operation? AlJazeera Quotes Hisbollah to say yes ("We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramia site with artillery shells and achieved direct hits." https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46), and the telegraph quotes Israelis to say yes (Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news). I am all im already, please, anyone explain to me how this is not a clear yes market already?

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

AlJazeera Arabic with 25 milion followers: "We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramia site with artillery shells and achieved direct hits." https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Ramyeh is a small Town in Southern Libanon: TheTelegraph, MTV Lebanon (1.6m followers), Hesbollah and multiple other channels have been reporting on this now. Look on Google Maps for yourself: Ramyeh, Lebanon.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

1.6 Million (!!!) followers account posts this: "Hezbollah: We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramya site in southern Lebanon!" hours ago. why is this market at 25%? 😂 https://x.com/mtvlebanonnews/status/1840407830093803892?s=46

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How do you find all these arabic pages? 😂

0

Remontada

1 year ago

https://x.com/MTVLebanonNews/status/1840407830093803892 Hezbollah: We targeted an Israeli force as it entered the Ramya site in southern Lebanon

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

2

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Cause special forces have been fighting in lebanon already, but its not a invasion (yet).

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Cause special forces have been fighting in lebanon already, but its not a invasion (yet).

1

Clickyleaks

1 year ago

https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727643077373

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Further prove:Reports: Israel Sends Small Commando Missions into Lebanon The IDF's Kfir Brigade trains in northern Israel for combat in southern Lebanon. https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/09/28/reports-israel-sends-small-commando-missions-into-lebanon/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops" - its already happening!!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

?

0

HHRRPP

1 year ago

8:24 GST

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Another hardliner joins the ranks for tonights security council meeting. I wonder what they might discuss there... "On 14 October 2023, in an interview with Israel's Channel 12 News, Sa'ar said that the Gaza Strip "must be smaller at the end" of the war between Israel and Hamas, stating "Whoever starts a war against Israel must lose territory."[52]" https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840433501654413577

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Another hardliner joins the ranks for tonights security council meeting. I wonder what they might discuss there... "On 14 October 2023, in an interview with Israel's Channel 12 News, Sa'ar said that the Gaza Strip "must be smaller at the end" of the war between Israel and Hamas, stating "Whoever starts a war against Israel must lose territory."[52]" https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840433501654413577

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

1.6 million followers. Sounds pretty legit to me?

2

JoeBETS

1 year ago

Bro cash out now, your fucked

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

This is literally a confirmation. " Israeli commandos have penetrated 'deep into the country' for 'sensitive intelligence missions" https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/nyt-israel-has-sent-undercover-commandos-deep-into-lebanon-for-sensitive-intelligence-missions/

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And the market is falling LOL

1

0x64D754C44852208575F9500ED1E4F10e6AD1512A-1722659354305

1 year ago

Wow. Literally confirmation

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

" Israeli commandos have penetrated 'deep into the country' for 'sensitive intelligence missions'" https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/nyt-israel-has-sent-undercover-commandos-deep-into-lebanon-for-sensitive-intelligence-missions/

6

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

700k followers on twitter says "The invasion and occupation of parts of Lebanon began because of the useless missiles. Nasrallah's eyes see." https://x.com/EdyCohen/status/1840325895812173840

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Last time Israel "entered" another territory, it counted as a "major offensive"! No reason why the "enter" market is at 40% and this here at 16%! https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-oct-31

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

A "limited military operation into southern lebanon" is still an invasion according to the rules of this bet: "if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over ANY portion of Lebanon"

0

MrKangaroo

1 year ago

"Rumors IDF are conducting ground op. in Lebanon are false", "Israel has not yet decided to invade Lebanon as part of the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah", "No final decision on ground operations", "Israel prefers to see whether the new Hezbollah leader, as yet unannounced, will take a more pragmatic approach to ending the current conflict", "It is also hoped that holding off an invasion to give some more potential time to diplomacy will assuage US anger at Israel for killing Nasrallah and achieve more "slack" with the US when and if an invasion is necessary", "While no invasion decision is necessarily imminent, if the IDF invades, there is pressure to start the invasion within weeks" - https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Compare it to the Gaza Case; they started with "Small Raids" there, but Gaza is a super dense city right after the border. For Libanon, if they go in, its only natural to position yourself on high grounds with artillery etc. which would clearly approve the ruling of "taking control". Its a large scale invasion for Lebanon, not a Hostage Situation. If they Cross the border, they will take territory. so the spread between this invade market @16% and the "enter but weirdly not take control of any square meter" market @39%: https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=172759430683

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon"; if they cross the border and dont leave it again, this condition is clearly met, even if its a slow military operation with smaller fights preparing the larger invasion. Rules dont say "start an invasion", hey say "commence a military operation".

0

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Israel could plant their flag in Beirut and JustScam would still try to lobby UMA that this is not an invasion. He always do the same and is destroying PM. He is a greedy overweight lib

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Can you link the "small raids not counting" bets? Why would Israel enter; but not with the intention to control?

1

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

As far as the nutcases spamming in here, if the IDF conducts small raids in Lebanon where they enter and leave, this market will be NO and the troops enter market will be YES. If they start a ground offensive, this market will be YES. We went through this last year in Gaza with small scale missions not counting.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

that would still count as "taking control"!

1

Justifax

1 year ago

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Israel just wants to push the border back a few km and they'd be happy with that.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If Israel goes over the border, they are obviously going for control. What else should they do? Drive in, shoot at stuff, drive back? This spread to the other market ("enters" @ 33%) makes zero sense. https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=172759430683

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

what are you talking about?

0

Justifax

1 year ago

If I thought the markets were mispriced because of interpretive risk, I would have just bought the other market. I didn't bother because the markets are exactly the same.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I would100% agree that this would count as an invasion, if they dont leave the country in between?

0

MisTKy

1 year ago

Also maybe they will act like Gaza, were they will do a couple of days small incursions, special ops and after enter with troops to establish control so be careful

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Yeah, right. They have this 500 tanks on the border to quickly arrest someone... https://news.sky.com/video/will-israel-launch-a-land-invasion-of-lebanon-13224335

1

Phat.

1 year ago

Ball example is bad, But if they cross to arrest someone and go back this wont resolve to yes is a better example

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You know how long ago the pager story? They responded to an attack after October 7th; they have a planned attack going since the pagers blew up. .

0

Justifax

1 year ago

Lol, "any portion"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Oh damn i totally forgot about the soccer game possibility.

2

Gena🐊

1 year ago

There is build up in the border, by some sources Israel has already crossed. If they are playing football and the ball goes to Lebanon and they cross to get it back, the other market will resolve to YES while this not

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If Israel goes over the border, they are obviously going for control. This spread to the other market ("enters" @ 30%) makes zero sense. https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727594306830

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If Israel goes over the border, they are obviously going for control. This spread to the other market (Invade @ 16%) makes zero sense. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727593786015

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What does "offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" even mean?! Occupation? Or clearing areas of fighters. Cant bet this honestly...

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://news.sky.com/video/will-israel-launch-a-land-invasion-of-lebanon-13224335

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They have hundreds of tanks on the border lined up:

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

They have hundreds of tanks on the border lined up:

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

US sees possibility of limited Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon as IDF moves forces to border: https://www.cnn.com/webview/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-29-24?cid=ios_app

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Its happening!!! 👀

1

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

why though?

0

Car

1 year ago

i sold

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

u guys read what happened in Beirut, right? Everyone is all about "this is all out war", Netanyahu is flying back to Israel from NY, there are hundreds of armored vehicles on the border ready to roll.

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

you dont understand how markets work.

1

Justifax

1 year ago

Sort of sad how people come to the site maybe to see what's up and then there is the piece of shit scammer Car and think this is what polymarket is all about that. Anyways, truth is that we are dealing with fog of war. If the market reflected reality, there would be very large spread. Right now it's just degenerate gambling.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

THE FUCK DO YOU KNOW?!?!? :D

0

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

Many are saying this!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Can someone explain the differende between "enter" and "invade"? I think it is VERY unprecise...

2

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Dont do that. 😂

1

mango-lassi

1 year ago

I'll start copytrading you

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Trump in NY the next days, they will probably meet then.

0

Crock95

1 year ago

What's happening?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

He will be back on saturday. plenty of time.

1

Prophet👻

1 year ago

Netanyahu is flying out to US. No way they will start a war to he is back

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"Today, Hezbollah expanded its range of fire, and later today, they will receive a very strong response. Prepare yourselves.

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

He adds that to "achieve that", the military is "preparing the process of a maneuver, which means your military boots, your maneuvering boots, will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y32qew9z2t

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

He adds that to "achieve that", the military is "preparing the process of a maneuver, which means your military boots, your maneuvering boots, will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y32qew9z2t

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

He adds that to "achieve that", the military is "preparing the process of a maneuver, which means your military boots, your maneuvering boots, will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts".

1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israeli strikes 'in preparation for possible entry' into Lebanon - army chief https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y32qew9z2t

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israeli strikes 'in preparation for possible entry' into Lebanon - army chief https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y32qew9z2t

1

Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

sooo why are you holding 4.7k yes? :D

5

Concepts-of-a-Plan

1 year ago

Its just not possible for her given the time. Guaranteed no. YES should be like 20 C

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

are you on twitter etc? PhD in Economics, new to Poly, @foreseeable_pm ;)

0

Car

1 year ago

according to this CNN reporter there is still no scheduled meeting: https://x.com/KristenhCNN/status/1838588549953695824

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Mr. Zelensky plans to meet Thursday with Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president. He then hopes to meet Thursday or Friday with Mr. Trump, who has said that he will “probably” meet with the Ukrainian president. Posted 25 minutes ago. How should Trump get a peace deal without talking to Zelensky? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/24/world/zelensky-general-assembly-ukraine-war.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

1

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Car, i trusted you on this; when are they meeting?! :(

0

Car

1 year ago

according to this CNN reporter there is still no scheduled meeting: https://x.com/KristenhCNN/status/1838588549953695824

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

After Sweden, MPOX C1 is now also in Kenya, Thailand and India. Its Spreading, and the US has 300m inhabitants with thousands of connections to areas as Congo and Burundi daily. https://x.com/Monkeypoxtally/status/1838307798678982905

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Omg its happening

2

Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

what are you guys talking about?! The meeting is fixed already. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y30244467o

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1838270259867844858?s=46

0

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israeli military preparing for next phases of Lebanon operation, army chief says.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Israeli military preparing for next phases of Lebanon operation, army chief says.

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Sweden has 5 Million inhabitants. They got a case. Clade1 is out of control in both Congo and Burundi now. USA has thousands of connections to both countries every day. https://x.com/Monkeypoxtally/status/1836030934170181945

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Ukrainian drones fly all the way through russia to destroy the biggest weapon depot of the russians; but despite all this capability this market doesnt see the chance for another bombing on moscow?! The last strikes were just the beginning!! https://x.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1836347684480803045

1

Hezbollah enters Israel in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And so it begins: https://x.com/IDF/status/1836769873042538964

0

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You could still win the least likely one, but lose one of the others. 25% pretty fair.

1

Cetus

1 year ago

If you go by the snake graph, it implies all states are tied together and winning the least likely of the swing states wins you the rest of them. So you have to go by the probability of winning the least likely one. On the snake graph, that's Arizona which is at 46% Harris. So the odds here should be 46%.

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What is happening?

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/10/mpox-outbreak-congo-africa/

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Would a capitulation of Hamas or a peace deal still be considered a YES?

1

Megaquake in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

"this market may remain open until September 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET"

1

Fred19999

1 year ago

Where do you get October from? I bet based on the rules, which states September!

Scorigami in NFL Week 1?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Any way to add you? not expaining statistics in the comments 🥲😁

1

balloooooo

1 year ago

0.967^16 = 0.70. so i guess this is fair value, but 30% intuitively feels so rich

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Are you on twitter or something? 😍😂

0

Car

1 year ago

time to buy 0.5ct shares 5 hours before resolution time again

Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How did you figure out 4th down conversion and? The only one i could not find at all.

0

n/a

1 year ago

This is about fair. Leg 2 books already have this bet offered at -700 so reality is even more likely.

Scorigami in NFL Week 1?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Could you stop being a smartass and let the math nerds get their money? (Your calculation is false, btw 🧮)

2

balloooooo

1 year ago

0.967^16 = 0.70. so i guess this is fair value, but 30% intuitively feels so rich

Megaquake in September?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Text is supposed to say "October 7th"... Why cant you get these Rules right ffs?!

5

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What are Whales? How does this work? It seems rather idiotic to have people invested in the market decide which result is true?

0

MineGuyBonds

1 year ago

Forgetting the largest whale on the site is behind No?

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

the best fakes are the fakes that fake a fake 5 hours before the fake.

0

boops

1 year ago

and videos can be easily faked.

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

2 days 5hs?! Why is this taking so long?!

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

How can we be sure it was before 08:00 though?

1

HsB34sgg

1 year ago

https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1830189436077760722 See here. Rifle fire did not shoot down the little drone. Someone is spreading Russian disinformation saying there was no fire.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

yeah right the telegram chanel just faked a post about drones attacking moscow 5hs before the drones actually hit, right?

1

Car

1 year ago

personally I wouldnt call pravda.com and a telegram channel credible reporting

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Here are the reports from Telegram about the attacks. Clearly, this happened before 23:59ET, 06:00 CET, 07:00 Moscow time! https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/1/7472902/

4

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

You are long in August and Short in September? The fuck? :D

0

XiJinPing

1 year ago

Polymarket staff will wake up in 4 hours. Just HODL the YES boys

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Could you please mark the debris on this video for me, sir? https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1830148058685874437

0

dreamer

1 year ago

The Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that there is no threat to people or the plant's operations. The fire started after the downed drone crashed

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

If this (a Ukrainian Drone hits Moscows biggest Oil plant causing a severe fire within a huge Drone Strike targeted at moscow by the Ukrainian army, Well Geolocated and confirmed"- ends in some "Well Putins Propagandist claim all is under control and it was Just debris after a super successful interception. So much winning." i am going to cash out of this site for ever.

4

Crimean bridge hit before October?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Homemade drones dont have enough boom to destroy the bridge.

2

T.w

1 year ago

lemme buy more of it at this price, Crimean bridge is a main target and the usage of Ukraine of homemade drones make it possible

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

and imma bout to...

0

redeyeknight

1 year ago

to the edge..

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

What does "launched by Ukrainian Armed Forces" mean, and what does "Strike" mean? Yet again, a market that will be disputed in most cases when Moscow is hit by some long range amunition.

4

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

With Höcke out, this could very well be a door opener for the Conservatives to do a coalition with the AFD. https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/afd-spitzenkandidat-hoecke-zieht-sich-vorlaeufig-aus-wahlkampf-zurueck-66ceebc0d888df086f5e8241?t_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Because its spreading EVERYWHERE?!?!?

0

yoyo.

1 year ago

gg we are fucked

Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

I just bought 100 Carlson, but if I want to sell it only gives me 99.991631 - is that some hidden rake?

0

10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Would you think there is more thailandish or more american people hanging around in african mpox areas? Thailand confirms Asia’s first known case of new deadlier mpox variant 1B https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/23/thailand-mpox-clade-1b-strain-new-variant-case

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Thailand confirms Asia’s first known case of new deadlier mpox variant 1B https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/23/thailand-mpox-clade-1b-strain-new-variant-case

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

and you have *NO* idea if there is a process as you describe going for two weeks 👀

1

diddy

1 year ago

Let's clarify some things. In case someone got the virus, there would be +5 days until symptoms start showing. Next, the person would need to be admitted to hospital after which, if confirmed to be Clade 1 variant, it would need to be reported to official bodies such as CDC, WHO, which could take another 1-2 days. The processes of just going through confirmation is strenuous, I don't want to kill hope of YES fellas, but you're just wasting your money in this case. Voting YES is literally high-stake gambling at this point

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a little thought: US is as large as Europe; so a case in the US is as likely as a 2nd case in Europe after 🇸🇪! 👀

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Just a little reminder:

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Mindfuck. 😂

1

100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It only took a month from the first case of monkeypox to the first 100 cases back in 2022. (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/us-map.html) This strain is as infectious. Totally, it had 93k cases in 2022/2023, this one has 20k already. If "by 30th september" has 78%, this needs to be at the same rate as "one case till september", which is 78% (look at the Rules Text; it includes all October). Thanks for reading.

5

10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It only took a week from the first case of monkeypox to the first 10 cases back in 2022. (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/us-map.html) This strain is as infectious. Totally, it had 93k cases in 2022/2023, this one has 20k already. If "by 30th september" has 78%, this needs to be at 85%+ (look at the Rules Text; it includes all October). Thanks for reading.

4

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Whats your reasoning for the cointoss claim?

1

MichaelBurryd

1 year ago

It's a cointoss every week to not get any new case in US, two more weeks from here. Bears are fukd at 25%

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And so it begins: First case of more contagious mpox found outside Africa https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gqr5lrpwxo

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

And so it begins: First case of more contagious mpox found outside Africa https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gqr5lrpwxo

4

NFL Saturday

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who is introducing new betting markets? Why is there none for this weeks UFC Event, but there was one last week?

1

NFL Sunday

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who is introducing new betting markets? Why is there none for this weeks UFC Event, but there was one last week?

2

Trump x Musk space censored in EU?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It would need to be a consensus until the end of 12th august though? as in a live-censorship by the EU? Which does not even exist theoretically?! 😂

0

Gena🐊

1 year ago

Well if you read the rules it says "however a consensus of credible resources will also be used." Now ask JustScam how he intends to play the system this time

Trump x Musk space censored in EU?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Can someone explain how this would ever resolve to yes?! 😂

0

UFC Fight Night: August 3

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Why is there so little action here?! 😄

1

Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

It they get their ambassador out, this is not enough i assume?

0

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Soooo we settle this for 50% each, right?

1

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Foreseeable.

1 year ago

Who is making the review calls? And why arent bets more specified ahead? As in "articulates the plan to buy additional coins" etc.?

3