#500
Rank
100
Comments
45
Likes Received
119
Likes Given
Which candidates will advance in Romanian Election 1st round?
Flaner
9 months ago
You could've jumped on the election ban market, that was way cheaper
0
luckybet3000
9 months ago
When I found this market 2-3 months ago, I left a comment wondering why cg was not already at like 90 "No". I won't find probably such a bargain market too soon again.
Which candidates will advance in Romanian Election 1st round?
Flaner
9 months ago
Brave as in dumb? It's just a hedge, I doubt she stands a chance
0
Flaner
9 months ago
This was kinda expected but in hindsight I should've hedged more towards him getting banned
Which candidates will advance in Romanian Election 1st round?
Flaner
9 months ago
This was kinda expected but in hindsight I should've hedged more towards him getting banned
1
Which coalition will form the next German government?
Flaner
9 months ago
In US terms, CDU/CSU is center-left at best. Europe is very left leaning. CDU just pretends to be a right party, but it won't be. SPD won't act like radical leftists in exchange of allowing CDU to do their "moderate" thing without AfD. SPD won't coerce CDU into having a coalition with AfD
0
athi
9 months ago
In this election, CDU/CSU and AfD have the highest likelihood of forming a coalition government because SPD's policies would increase the government's financial burden, while the Greens have extreme environmental policies. CDU/CSU and AfD share some similarities, particularly regarding free trade and their opposition to expanding the welfare state. If CDU/CSU agrees to adopt anti-immigration policies from AfD, there would be very little difference between them.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Flaner
9 months ago
It just adds a block button, source is public as well. You were quite the inspiration since there's no moderation and Polymarket doesn't give a fuck
2
Flaner
9 months ago
Reminder for all people done with POA: install Violentmonkey and add Polymarket Blocker. You don't have to read spam ever again
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Flaner
9 months ago
Reminder for all people done with POA: install Violentmonkey and add Polymarket Blocker. You don't have to read spam ever again
3
AfD % of vote in German Election?
Flaner
9 months ago
I want AfD as much as the next guy but retarded boomers make up most of Germany, that's just how it is
8
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
Flaner
10 months ago
But I'd love to divest a bit so if price improves I'll derisk, since you shouldn't bet big on 15% chance events, not a sound gambling strategy
0
Flaner
10 months ago
So the "right" German party (CDU) is saying that no government with 2nd most voted segment. Which would shift votes into AfD next election (if AfD not banned, tho), because the "right" will feel like CDU prefers doing center-left stuff and doesn't cater to their issues. Politicians claiming they won't negotiate with other parties is pre-election strategy 101. Truth of the matter is, a CDU+AfD is very pragmatic because you only need to deal with one party instead of 2. Might be a 15% chance event? Something similar happened in Argentina last year, with all 3 main parties pretending to be absolutists.
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
Flaner
10 months ago
So the "right" German party (CDU) is saying that no government with 2nd most voted segment. Which would shift votes into AfD next election (if AfD not banned, tho), because the "right" will feel like CDU prefers doing center-left stuff and doesn't cater to their issues. Politicians claiming they won't negotiate with other parties is pre-election strategy 101. Truth of the matter is, a CDU+AfD is very pragmatic because you only need to deal with one party instead of 2. Might be a 15% chance event? Something similar happened in Argentina last year, with all 3 main parties pretending to be absolutists.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Flaner
1 year ago
Money goes to money, aenews wouldn't have bought half a million YES if he didn't have confirmation from the whales
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
There is nothing about uselectionatlas in the rules. "Off the official count", nuff said. No official count is going to count invalid writeins, so they're not a share of the popular vote. But yes it should be obviously be clarified asap
2
Justifax
1 year ago
Ignore the annoying schizos that can't do math. Get Poly to clarify final results. All too often people get scammed at the last second.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Even if you're telling the truth, I think it's quite likely those bureaucrats won't even care about checking the numbers, even if they only needed three clicks to get the info they'd just make it up. For us, 200k is completely different from 280k, but they don't give a shit
0
Justifax
1 year ago
My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.
Fed Interest Rates: December 2024
Flaner
1 year ago
This market is so de-attached from CME Fedwatch, I think you can arb this by buying No Change here, and buying CME futures that make money at a 0.25% cut?
3
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
If I was an american I would probably try
0
Justifax
1 year ago
So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
This has to be the most difficult, technical market in this site
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
im gonna need it ngl
0
Andy0091
1 year ago
Alright yall if some freak pivot happens and my position wins im buying yall a drink.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
It's creating a DNA helix
5
Mbrace888
1 year ago
Why is it trying to flip again?
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I think that's just for the Senate
0
Flaner
1 year ago
Anyone knows if they will reveal votes over the weekend?
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Anyone knows if they will reveal votes over the weekend?
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
lol
4
MalikNabers
1 year ago
Personally, I think Kamala is a stronger candidate than many realize and will persevere to the point where it will pull down the popular vote, even if people consider the Democrats to be weaker in the popular vote this year. I remember a time where people here thought it was nearly impossible for her to even lose the popular vote. And even though this may have been grossly exaggerated I can’t believe she will let the popular vote slip away from her by more than 1.5%. She just has too much perseverance. Her concession speech was very strong, her base would not neglect her after such a gracious acceptance of defeat.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Nice alt @gebran you guys are playing true schizo psyop games
2
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
got repo somewhere? can debug
0
Andy0091
1 year ago
https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
it's estimating 159M votes which is a bit off
1
Andy0091
1 year ago
https://2024votetracker.com/ tracker up showing change in votes
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Glad you liked it, cheers
1
Mbrace888
1 year ago
I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
yeah I had the chance to see it, you can see it from my sell. well gg
0
Mbrace888
1 year ago
I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I mean if you count the expected votes per county, it adds up to like 90k extra but there'll probably be way less
0
Mbrace888
1 year ago
I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
AP is overly estimating uncounted votes in FL, will likely also be overestimating CA among others
0
Mbrace888
1 year ago
I am just seeing things? Votes keep getting counted by the hundreds of thousands, but the needle hardly moves from 1.7%.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
How many votes does Kamala need for margin 1.5? Is it like 220k? I don't know how to do that math
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
But yeah what you've said is kinda true. I think shilling positions in the comments would be considered malpractice by SEC rules, so they might use it as excuse to slash Poly
1
Justifax
1 year ago
So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm not sure who JMC is but I think that's quite off, is he a poly bettor?
0
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I was started yesterday, I also coped yesterday and assumed I'd lose the entire thing as a baseline. If I make money on this bet that's just dumb luck. Not scared, not coping anymore, went through the last stage of grief already
0
Justifax
1 year ago
So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
The participants of a prediction market play in a zero-sum game. Of course everyone is interested on their position
0
Justifax
1 year ago
So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'll let you hype your position among yourselves and to external observers so you get a better valuation (and I might get a chance to buy at better price), I'm focused on the intrinsic value of the bet now since I don't trust this market to be rational anymore. The way I see it, the holders of your position have a non-verbal competition to not start selling asap
0
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Even provided the (previous version) of the code I used to reach my conclusion on my position. You, however, have been cherrypicking
0
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I came to terms with the fact there's a non-zero (and high) possibility I lose it all. If anything I'm the party that's been the most honest about the odds
1
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
f polymarket filtering
0
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
No matter what I share I don't think I'd change anyone's opinions so I'll keep my data to prevent it from being used to argue against me since I wouldn't mind liquidating back (I don't like risk). I'm pretty sure you guys are looking to shill your position to a better valuation to liquidate better, and I don't intend to stop it
0
Justifax
1 year ago
More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I think it's 2.6M more votes
0
gekko888
1 year ago
My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Yeah NY and NJ created ~20k pending votes yesterday, I'm quite astonished at how deficient the US is
0
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I improved the model quite a bit to track other trends and how the pending votes. Although I admit even this new model is also drifting
1
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Yeah from what I'm getting with the code this is 50/50 and that's being quite charitable. Cali votes went through and even improved the margin on average. NY is what I'm worried about
0
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.
2
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
AP claims there are 23300 votes remaining
0
RobinNakamoto
1 year ago
Funny how yesterday there were 25,000 votes remaining and today there's 27,000 😂 (source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-president-results)
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm a bit more confident than I was yesterday but states creating "uncounted votes" out of thin air really fucks over my estimations. Other culprits creating votes are New York (+5k) and Nebraska (+4k)
0
Flaner
1 year ago
If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
The votes outside of CA are what I'm afraid of because some states like Illinois have created uncounted votes today (20k), fuck the US
0
Flaner
1 year ago
If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA
2
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Yeah that was genius
0
Mbrace888
1 year ago
Didn’t I say that this would head to 60/40?
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Thanks for the advice. I am refraining from selling because I don't think it's a good deal with what I know, but after having experienced the stress of imagining the loss I'm pretty sure I'll sell at a loss once there's a better deal
0
Flaner
1 year ago
Please don't pump, you got no idea the existential crisis I had yesterday over thinking I'd lose the bet and now your pumping? Was it all for nothing?
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Thank god New Jersey is voting way redder than expected
2
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I hope mom doesn't look at my portfolio I don't want her to cry
0
Flaner
1 year ago
Please don't pump, you got no idea the existential crisis I had yesterday over thinking I'd lose the bet and now your pumping? Was it all for nothing?
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
This shit is giving me a heart attack, would love to be in the No side
2
DeucePapi
1 year ago
Two weeks after the election and these losers still don't have a final count
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Please don't pump, you got no idea the existential crisis I had yesterday over thinking I'd lose the bet and now your pumping? Was it all for nothing?
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Thanks, I was precisely suspecting that, even if I think I win 80% of the time, it's irresponsible to bet ~50% of my portfolio, since if losing I get rekt. Kelly criterion is interesting
1
Justifax
1 year ago
The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Means, 52*1.03, 46*(1/1.03)
0
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
There were barely any votes today, I'll repost tomorrow night and we can get a better estimate. The issue about this code is more about, how much you trust the AP over other sources
0
Flaner
1 year ago
Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I just made it this morning, over this day (or around 8h) it shifted from 1.5727 to 1.5724
0
Flaner
1 year ago
Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Recomputed with 6% extra edge instead (note this applies to both mail, non-mail, and affects california a lot because they have so much pending count), then margin decreases to 1.5160
0
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Using the extra 1% edge in uncounted is charitable, I think, since it amplifies all blue states quite a lot, and applies even for non-mail votes (0.5% extra for harris, -0.5% for everyone else)
0
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Yeah that might account for another -0.05% to -0.10% shift, not sure, well gl
1
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Well if I can't liquidate and no one trusts the code I'll have to take the 20% dice to lose it all
0
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Also AP already gives more than 155m turnout so I'm not sure why people were gambling on the other market, maybe AP is wrong? But that's my alpha
0
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
https://pastecode.io/s/r220i348 open new tab, press F12, console, paste code, and wait 10s for output
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Based on current county margins, is that incredibly stupid?
0
PolyPredictor
1 year ago
I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
But my sources might be trash because I'm using AP
0
PolyPredictor
1 year ago
I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Since you played fair and shared alpha I'll share the code so you can replicate. I estimate 20% odds below 1.5 and 80% above so I'd like to liquidate if possible
1
PolyPredictor
1 year ago
I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I took this into account in my code, every county had the pending votes matching the proportion, also added a bias for later votes to favor harris in 2% diff (overseas) and that only decreased margin to 1.56
1
PolyPredictor
1 year ago
I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Ok but don't you have the intuition that once the red states certify their votes, that margin also becomes a bit bigger and counteracts the blue expansion a bit?
0
PolyPredictor
1 year ago
I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm guessing that everyone did their homework and didn't bet based on intuition (like I did initially)
0
Flaner
1 year ago
I estimate that margin 1.7636 goes to 1.5724
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Ok the banned word is scr1pt. Well, that's what I made to fetch and process the data
0
Flaner
1 year ago
I estimate that margin 1.7636 goes to 1.5724
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Before you laugh at me I'm going to get liquidity to buy more and then I post more
1
Flaner
1 year ago
I estimate that margin 1.7636 goes to 1.5724
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I estimate that margin 1.7636 goes to 1.5724
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Are % signs filtered
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Polymarket filter doesn't seem to allow me to post my alpha?
0
Flaner
1 year ago
I don't know if I'm absurdly overconfident, if you are absurdly overconfident, or what data am I missing. I might finally become financially ruined?!
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I don't know if I'm absurdly overconfident, if you are absurdly overconfident, or what data am I missing. I might finally become financially ruined?!
1
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Don't be mean, share the info so that I can dump and stop growing my losses
0
MalikNabers
1 year ago
Interesting, looks like the under 1.5 yes holders and 1.5-1.75 no holders dont want to sell. Hm. Im sure they are just busy today.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
And if I lose everything, Polymarket is just the friends we made along the way
1
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm illiquid now, sad. Hope I don't get rekt
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm illiquid now, sad. Hope I don't get rekt
0
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
I mean, isn't that just better for you? You get to buy cheaper
2
walterbuffett
1 year ago
What is going on?? Votes are still coming in, odds are moving. The lead has now shrunk to 1.73%! How on earth is 1.0-1.5 still trading sub 3%??? Absolute joke. https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/state/pennsylvania
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
Don't the other states have pending votes as well?
0
Justifax
1 year ago
There is about a 316,485 net change required for Kam to get to lt 1.5. At a +21 for Harris (eg, 57\36), that will require 1.5M more votes.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
You guys were scaring me and now it turns out you're dumping wtf
1
Flaner
1 year ago
What is going on here
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Flaner
1 year ago
What is going on here
1
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
AP gave me more confidence than CNN or NBC, parsing through the network log and checking the JSON, the percentages are more exact, gives you data on how many precints voted, percent etc
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
Ok you gotta be using CNN right? AP provides different data on vote counts
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/pennsylvania am I retarded?
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
To be specific the delta you need is an outlier by 21 std. You scared me and made me redo the math. If I lose; my L will be unmeasurable. But I benefit from liquidity rn so please sell your bet back
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
Allegheny on average amounts to 1400 extra, Philly 4000 extra. You'd need crazy variance for those to increase the vote so much. And then you're cherrypicking because you're not considering the smaller counties mostly cancel that out.
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory
Flaner
1 year ago
Are you an insider or just checking vote counts in AP?
0
walterbuffett
1 year ago
t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
I'm just market making but if I get banned from the airdrop due to all these idiot airdrop farmers buying and selling on me I swear to god
0
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
Liquidity rewards down to 50$, lame, farming is over boys
1
Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
Flaner
1 year ago
Whatever happens with the Elon market is going to decide on UMA whales dealing on private chats, unless you're fine with that I would liquidate and run
2
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
If UMA does that, polymarket will override the ruling, insane drama will insue and people will be leaving
2
Illyrian-141
1 year ago
Point to note: Nancy Pelosi enjoys trading on insider information when buying stocks. So if they make the VP President before Trump is President then this is a Slam Dunk for her to make easy money.
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
Pretty sure UMA won't rule it like that, since they understand Polymarket has it coded as a "winner takes all" market. So, they'll look at the particular inauguration that was in mind when this market was created
2
Illyrian-141
1 year ago
Point to note: Nancy Pelosi enjoys trading on insider information when buying stocks. So if they make the VP President before Trump is President then this is a Slam Dunk for her to make easy money.
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
Because this is a winner takes all market and that's not possible, even though it's theoretically possible IRL, the way this market is setup doesn't allow this. So, spirit of the law, wouldn't count as Kamala being inaugurated?
1
Flaner
1 year ago
What happens if Joe quits, Kamala is president for a month and then Trump is inaugurated? Two Yes? lmao
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
What happens if Joe quits, Kamala is president for a month and then Trump is inaugurated? Two Yes? lmao
2
Will Elon's daughter move out of the U.S.?
Flaner
1 year ago
If you're wondering I bought Yes accidentally, oh well
2
Flaner
1 year ago
This market is just to bully that person into actually leaving?
Will Elon's daughter move out of the U.S.?
Flaner
1 year ago
This market is just to bully that person into actually leaving?
5
U.S. recession before May 2025?
Flaner
1 year ago
Google: "how long does nber take to announce recession", anywhere from 4 to 21 months, such an useful institution lol. Yes holders better cross their fingers the recession starts either in December 2024 of January 2025 so that those bureaucrats have time to wake up
1
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Flaner
1 year ago
Go go Trump
1
Trump signs national abortion ban?
Flaner
1 year ago
Since there are so many conditions I don't trust UMA to not scam me out with some excuse lmao
5