#77
Rank
111
Comments
73
Likes Received
17
Likes Given
n/a
1 day ago
this is simple. all whales and sharp bettors are on the side where an equivalent market already resolved yes, all the community takeover buyers are on the other side and pumping their shares before the expiry date. in the next few hours, they will need to start taking profits or let the shares go to zero because thats how this game works.
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1 day ago
i'd be more comfy with dumping at 50c but i'll ride out this coinflip with my +ev odds. final argument to pump the market: ipsos has the biggest left lean per NS (+1.9). yougov, the backup pollster, is rated 0.0. yougov found vance winning by +1. should vance be a 69-31 fav in this scenario? questions for plato
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1 day ago
i'll freely admit i will dump on y'all when this is at 50c as it should be: "Asked who won Tuesday’s debate, voters were split 50-50 over whether it was JD Vance or Tim Walz, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll of likely voters conducted just after the two faced off in a studio in New York City." https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131
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1 day ago
wonderful analysis, problem is Trump isn't a rational actor but a nutcase
MartinArauz
1 day ago
After the Walz-Vance debate, I think it's clear that there won't be another debate: the Trump-Vance ticket ends with a moderate victory in a debate. The campaign is left with rallies and social media. Trump has nothing to gain from another debate with Kamala. Alea iacta est.
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1 day ago
i'm a kamala bull but i don't understand why this isn't at least at 5050 after trump flipped her on betfair and is about to do the same on polymarket+will get a short-term sugar high from the vp debate
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1 day ago
cnn and cbs polls have them tied, you guys sure you want to pay 70c to bet against a left-leaning pollster?
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1 day ago
i've no horse in this but as always, if you're sitting on a phat debate profit, you just pay the polymarket exit scam tax and move on, simple as. thats part and parcel of this site. fwiw, imo he said tax to pay and not debate. Trump isnt British, he pronounces consonants
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3 days ago
this is very simple. there is one experienced whale vs a bunch of shouting birdshit accounts. the whale has become a whale for a reason, he's a sharp trader and doesn't waste time whining and complaining in comment sections. thus, taking the whale's side is generally +ev and in this specific case may be +ev as well since theres 10% more upside to go. the rationale for cashing out here is not investing emotionally+opportunity cost from locked up capital, not No being a good bet.
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3 days ago
I'm outta this, dispute is guaranteed here, thanks but no thanks
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4 days ago
this market is practically guaranteed to get disputed either way, which is why I kept stakes low
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5 days ago
border bros had it coming
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5 days ago
for Kamala they should put on blockchain, would get more interesting
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1 week ago
chyna hit easily, he said chinese several times as well
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1 week ago
cant believe I won a border under
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1 week ago
biggest tax cuts since Reagan
Calligraphy
1 week ago
Why is Reagan a thing?
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1 week ago
one more rant and it hits, if he talks about something else it'll fail
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1 week ago
border will be a close call
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1 week ago
border will be a close call
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1 week ago
'people don't know the AI it's a big thing'
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1 week ago
this is longer than a normal rally, he must have more energy around noon
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1 week ago
*returns to prompter after 30min ramble on the border and assassination attempts*
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1 week ago
'remarks on car and horse racing'
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1 week ago
'remarks on US manufacturing'
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1 week ago
he's obsessed with it, think I'm done with betting No unless he arrives late for a TV event
NotJustKen
1 week ago
Wow. He eats sleep and breath border lol
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1 week ago
ok nevermind here comes more
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1 week ago
same thing like at the townhall, he basically didn't talk about the border but the two times he mentions it he wordsalads in 7 8 borders and covers, at one point he'll not cover because 80c isn't value in these events
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1 week ago
same thing like at the townhall, he basically didn't talk about the border but the two times he mentions it he wordsalads in 7 8 borders and covers, at one point he'll not cover because 80c isn't value in these events
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1 week ago
lmao it had to be
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1 week ago
if this guy wins, polymarket will drop a token and become a top10 coin at levels you wouldn't believe
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1 week ago
elon endorsed him at a level you wouldn't believe
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1 week ago
well, it was worth a try lol here we go
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1 week ago
lol he actually knows unrealized cap gains, thats a new one
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1 week ago
idk, tuned in late 3 or 4 imo
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1 week ago
he's actually talking about the economy and manufacturing but he's still obsessed with borders lol
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1 week ago
chyna should've had a 15 line, would have been more interesting to bet
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1 week ago
he's actually talking about the economy and manufacturing but he's still obsessed with borders lol
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1 week ago
he's actually talking about the economy and manufacturing but he's still obsessed with borders lol
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1 week ago
fwiw I too expect it to go over but free money this is not and it should also not be 80+ imo so I punted No
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1 week ago
I found 4 economics-themed remarks from Trump, he covered the line easily in 2, one barely (16) and went under at the economic club in NY. if you wanna buy border at 80+ be my guest, thats what there's a market for. if the price hits what I consider a fair line, I'll dump, otherwise I'm perfectly happy holding this into the speech because the market won't know how to price it inplay because it probably doesn't follow the usual rally pattern
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1 week ago
I found 4 economics-themed remarks from Trump, he covered the line easily in 2, one barely (16) and went under at the economic club in NY. if you wanna buy border at 80+ be my guest, thats what there's a market for. if the price hits what I consider a fair line, I'll dump, otherwise I'm perfectly happy holding this into the speech because the market won't know how to price it inplay because it probably doesn't follow the usual rally pattern
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1 week ago
if it was a townhall that'd be even more bearish, at the least townhall the line was going under until like 5mins before the end and 'one more thing about the border.' plus there's no moderator announced so likely wrong label from the event page, clearly says remarks on his site
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1 week ago
border is free money, don’t know why it says “speech”, the event is just a town hall: https://www.savannahcivic.com/events/donald-trump-town-hall and he dropped like 20 borders at the last town hall. the man loves to say border border borderrr
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1 week ago
correct, in Michigan he did 16: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6nNibmHt6w&pp=ygUVdHJ1bXAgcmVtYXJrcyBlY29ub215 should go over 15 but it's not free money, it depends on how close he sticks to the prompter
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1 week ago
these numbers are wrong btw, the second link is not the full event, he said it 27 times not 16. this event is basically the same genre as the second event you posted
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1 week ago
Trump addresses the economic club: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leomt_FY_zw&pp=ygUVdHJ1bXAgcmVtYXJrcyBlY29ub215 11x Border Trump delivers remarks on economic policy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_HZOI61BNA&pp=ygUVdHJ1bXAgcmVtYXJrcyBlY29ub215 16x Border
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1 week ago
just saw chyna is on, should have a higher line because 5 is guaranteed but Hyundai has an EV facility there, I'd be astonished if he doesn't ramble about Chyna and windmills again
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1 week ago
this isn't a rally but 'remarks' and if you actually google the venue, it's a theater, so there's good reason to believe Trump won't bust out his usual greatest hits but stay a lot closer to the prompter and ramble much more about tax, chyna (should be added) and other economic stuff
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1 week ago
this isn't a rally but 'remarks' and if you actually google the venue, it's a theater, so there's good reason to believe Trump won't bust out his usual greatest hits but stay a lot closer to the prompter and ramble much more about tax, chyna (should be added) and other economic stuff
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1 week ago
i'm traumatized after the last Comrade failure so he'll probably blast it out a bunch of times today, especially after talking about chyna earlier in the day
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1 week ago
your lifetime ROI tells me I know a lot more about risk-adjusted returns than you do, so keep those takes coming
yourrapist1776
1 week ago
BuckMySalls is such a german political expert he bought SPD shares at 93c today instead of 29c yesterday
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1 week ago
the amazing thing about this website is you can literally tell people how you will take their money and they won't believe it until it happened, it's truly like magic
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1 week ago
it was more like the US election 2020, first votes heavily favored afd, but when the bigger precincts report the tide turns.
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1 week ago
amazing that people infer something from a US presidential election 8 years ago to psyop themselves into a terrible bet on a German state election, it's like watching the NBA finals and then thinking you'll see the same pattern in a women's high school final
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1 week ago
rofl indeed
432
1 week ago
rofl
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1 week ago
like taking candy from a baby, just ethical - thanks for playing
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1 week ago
I look forward to doing this exact same maneuver to gullible rightoids in November again
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1 week ago
for the sake of our current and future bags, I suggest no more such posts about German elections
Car
1 week ago
1.5% difference left and omly 75% counted. Will end eactly like the TV forecasts predict
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1 week ago
this isnt like burger elections, German exit polls are very accurate
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1 week ago
was a good bet we got cucked by his brain shortcircuiting because he said it 5 times
yoyo.
1 week ago
im in pain
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1 week ago
amazing, 5 comrades but 0 comrade Kamala he's taking the piss
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1 week ago
impressive they got him off Comrade, I wonder how long it lasts
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1 week ago
if he doesnt say it on the economy he won't say it at all its Joeover
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1 week ago
Comrade Kamala pretty obvious value here because there is no reason it should be 30c today and 50c in PA. The reason is ofc limp-wristed 25c buyers dumping. Not me though because I plan to just claim profits
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1 week ago
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113170359492831150 Comrade Kamala is back
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2 weeks ago
point isn't that he won't attack migrants but that he will not (hopefully) single out a group again, especially after the cat story was debunked ten times over
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2 weeks ago
Trump didn't say Comrade or Haitian yesterday, his campaign managers may have told him to shut down the personal attacks.
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2 weeks ago
there's also not much point in warming up the Haitian attacks that have brought him nothing but bad press in the last week. Should really be trading 15:85 not 35:65.
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2 weeks ago
Trump didn't say Comrade or Haitian yesterday, his campaign managers may have told him to shut down the personal attacks.
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2 weeks ago
Trump didn't say Comrade or Haitian yesterday, his campaign managers may have told him to shut down the personal attacks.
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2 weeks ago
he said border 3 times in a 2h space
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2 weeks ago
Lol he said border 19 times in the space
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2 weeks ago
Trump at his last RALLY in Michigan: 11 borders. Gl border bros, you're gonna need it.
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2 weeks ago
Let's see how this goes: "The Trump campaign said in a news release on Thursday that Trump would hold a town hall and "meet with Michiganders to listen to their concerns and share his vision to make America affordable again" at Dort Financial Center on Lapeer Road in Flint beginning at 7 p.m. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as White House press secretary for Trump when he was president, will serve as the moderator at the town hall meeting. Republicans, including Trump, have been hammering at high levels of inflation seen in the U.S. following the COVID-19 pandemic and blaming the Biden administration."
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2 weeks ago
thanks for your input mr whale trader
Donkov
2 weeks ago
Stop whining and enjoy the volatility
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2 weeks ago
just too close for comfort for me to hold a bigger position with the main market being so tight. on other platforms kamala pulled ahead as she should have with a post-debate poll bounce but the magatards are strong on this one and I won't bet against someone with an agenda messing with the main market tomorrow
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2 weeks ago
border will probably hit again but NV isn't a border state so it doesn't make sense the odds are lower than yesterday
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2 weeks ago
It's unlikely to be Fox but there is a good chance this trades in the 40s at some point based on rumors alone
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2 weeks ago
Gotta make em too big to rig folks
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2 weeks ago
going to have to check that play by play because that must be a border all-time high
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2 weeks ago
poor fools thinking the border salvo wasn't coming in ARIZONA
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2 weeks ago
I'm sure whatever Trump says on Truth Social is the truth, nothing but the truth and will remain the truth from now until Nov 5. Good luck betting 75c+ off an angry Trump tweet kiddo, you're gonna need it
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3 weeks ago
Fed cuts trading like shitcoins, an influenza writes a shill post in the WSJ and price doubles
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3 weeks ago
He says debunked and corrected, not fact check. That's a big word and Trump doesn't use big words, especially without a run-up. He sticks to what he knows and he used those at Fox and Friends.
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3 weeks ago
His rebuttal is as credible as the 92-8 poll he cites. He just wants to negotiate more favorable terms and once the polls bump her up, he'll become more flexible on the conditions.
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3 weeks ago
never in doubt folks
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3 weeks ago
need notifications alerting me to buy the CTO when this gets disputed
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1 month ago
ngl he's got great energy for being 78
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1 month ago
12
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1 month ago
Whats the count on border?
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1 month ago
he's got an open tab with me for cutting the townhall short, so he'll stay on till the border over is in
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1 month ago
Border 10+ was selling for 16c at one point LOL
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1 month ago
11
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1 month ago
lost my border count :D
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1 month ago
lmao when he does Border Czar he does it with style
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1 month ago
Need weave next time on the mentions
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1 month ago
sounds like it, I doubt we'll squeeze the extra minutes in though
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1 month ago
Should resolution wait to see if a full interview is released? This market will resolve based on the first full interview release made available. If no full interview is released by September 5, 2024, this market will resolve based on the length of all released footage
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1 month ago
I love how you all shat yourselves by reading the word townhall. "Trump plans to make his case to voters while discussing the Harris-Walz ticket. He’s also expected to outline his agenda for “Making America Affordable Again.” [...] Doors for the event will open at 3 p.m. with Trump expected to deliver remarks at 6 p.m." Good luck No virgins, you're gonna need it.
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1 month ago
Quite funny that you guys look at CNN townhalls and think this isn't going to be partisan. Finally some value odds.
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1 month ago
Polymarket disputes are the new shitcoin community takeovers
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1 month ago
Yes has won but as is custom on Polymarket, there will be a week of disputing it so the smart move is just to dump at 99c.
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1 month ago
Wisconsin is next to Minnesota. You know who's from Minnesota? Right. Study maps.
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1 month ago
I sold but this is a clear yes, he said support and join campaign several times, obviously it's an endorsement.
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1 month ago
bro is enjoying his 45mins of MSM coverage, he'll make sure to stretch this one as much as possible
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1 month ago
He'll still say it, it's Joeover
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1 month ago
If he ends now, get ready for WW3 in the resolution.
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1 month ago
Must have been the easiest money in weeks here, didn't expect it to hit so fast.
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1 month ago
thank you for your opinion zero volume chimp
Chimp1
1 month ago
I mean yea maybe but this isn't really the usage of "joy" that y'all thought you were looking for when you bought yes anyways.
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1 month ago
Well this is obviously going to lose after the clarification. But let's be real, Joy holders are losing on a stupid technicality, not because we were wrong. Compare these two sentences: "My early memories of our parents together are very joyful ones." [sentence said, wrong] "My early memories of our parents together are full of joy." [hypothetical sentence, right] Do you see any difference in those? No, they both convey 99.9% the same meaning. So this is stupid and semantics, I accept the loss but is it making me less likely to bet on other mentions markets? Absolutely it is..
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1 month ago
or No holders could just lose their money which would most definitely count
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1 month ago
She could also just do a speech which I dont think will count
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1 month ago
nevermind that Dems have been going out of their way to hammer the happy/joyful patriots narrative. If you don't take it from me, you'll take it from the horse's mouth tonight.
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1 month ago
"Harris will focus on three points, the official said: 1. Her story: Harris will tell her story of being raised by a working mother in a middle-class neighborhood. She'll say that background means she knows the everyday joys and challenges experienced by middle-class families, and shares those values." Should Kamala also brush your teeth and wipe your diaper? Literally telling you what she will say.
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1 month ago
"Harris will focus on three points, the official said: 1. Her story: Harris will tell her story of being raised by a working mother in a middle-class neighborhood. She'll say that background means she knows the everyday joys and challenges experienced by middle-class families, and shares those values." Should Kamala also brush your teeth and wipe your diaper? Literally telling you what she will say.
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1 month ago
Her operation is more professional and focused, and it’s really allowing for her inner joy to come through that we just didn’t see at that time. [...] She’s trying to bring joy and energy and enthusiasm to politics and, oh my God, the package is there: She’s got everything else you may need — the intelligence, the smarts, the tactics.” Joy will start at 80c and there is nothing you can do to prevent it.
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1 month ago
Her operation is more professional and focused, and it’s really allowing for her inner joy to come through that we just didn’t see at that time. [...] She’s trying to bring joy and energy and enthusiasm to politics and, oh my God, the package is there: She’s got everything else you may need — the intelligence, the smarts, the tactics.” Joy will start at 80c and there is nothing you can do to prevent it.
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1 month ago
weirdbros completely misreading the room
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1 month ago
When Harris speaks Thursday, she will speak about how her “values and her life's work have led to this point,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillion said at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. She will be able to tell the audience "the kind of individual leader she's going to be moving forward.”
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1 month ago
When Harris speaks Thursday, she will speak about how her “values and her life's work have led to this point,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillion said at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. She will be able to tell the audience "the kind of individual leader she's going to be moving forward.”
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1 month ago
fools who will soon be parted with their money
ThatOtherGuy
1 month ago
who is still on the "yes" side?
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1 month ago
Correct, reproductive rights is the euphemism that puts lipstick on the pig. She could well say 'we reject the Trump abortion ban' but abortion bros are overconfident about this.
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1 month ago
I think Kamala is more likely to say female reproductive rights than abortion
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1 month ago
Democracy came up a good dozen times in 2020 and we all know how much disdain Obama has for Trump. One man's dollar is another man's 80c.
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1 month ago
The ceasefire is a Biden topic since foreign policy is what he prides himself on. For all we know, it might already be in place by November. She will focus on her own agenda and grand arc, not on the nitty gritty of the current administration she is already a part of.
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1 month ago
Climate change bros sure are confident about a topic that has been absent from public perception ever since Trump pulled out of the Paris accords. Streaks always hold until they don't.
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1 month ago
Rally is in PA, obviously Trump will bring up energy and fracking. Drill baby drill should be 90+.
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1 month ago
Not going back bros got bailed out by the crowd there. She was not going to say that.
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1 month ago
Yea he said it a few times around fossil fuels. But it was worth fudding the market, pvp
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1 month ago
He said broke it with hammers and with fire..... Just read the transcrtipt. He said it 3 times.
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1 month ago
He said fired up, not referring to the act of dismissing an employee. It was referring to being animated, can't remember the context in this ramblemageddon. But according to the rules, this is a No.
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1 month ago
there was no reference to dismissing an employee yea, this is not a clear Yes.
iplaythelonggame
1 month ago
The resolution market for fire/fired states “compound words will count as long as fire/fired” is part of the compound word and references the meaning WHICH REFERS TO THE ACT OF DISMISSING AN EMPLOYEE”
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1 month ago
Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word !! and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.!!
iplaythelonggame
1 month ago
The resolution market for fire/fired states “compound words will count as long as fire/fired” is part of the compound word and references the meaning WHICH REFERS TO THE ACT OF DISMISSING AN EMPLOYEE”
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7 months ago
agree
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7 months ago
normally these markets are for live debates/interviews. this one is still interesting, but i would suggest that polymarket do that thing it does with some sports games where it clears all orders (or at least gives us the option to) once the game starts. in this case, cancel all open orders the moment the interview drops.