Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

LMNOP

8 months ago

Clear case for -25bps. Powell at his keynote speech at the Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming stated: "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

0

Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Unlikely to happen. Swift hates controversy (i.e. feud with Kanye) and Trump gets under her skin. She doesn't want the drama and it's enough that she's telling her fans to vote.

0

Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It depends if "support" = "endorse".

1

Gena🐊

8 months ago

Just to be sure, what if Taylor endorses Kamala but keeps running in non swing states?

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

UMA votes are all already in and it's 99.5% voting Yes. https://vote.uma.xyz/

0

n/a

8 months ago

uma whale told me they voted no

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You are correct, he did not. But these disputes go to a vote on UMA which theoretically should be impartial but the winner goes to whomever has the most money. See also: United States Judicial System.

3

Astronaut

8 months ago

"He didn't explicitly say the word 'teacher' " as you say is what i thought would suffice in a market involving large amounts of money, but i guess we live and we learn

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Believe me sir, I have been where you are now. I was a veteran on the losing side of the RFK Endorse battle.

1

Dexol

8 months ago

This is a bet on what Walz will say, not what he meant

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

For those who haven't seen it, you can view it here at 01:03. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/30/politics/video/kamala-harris-tim-walz-full-interview-part-3-digvid He didn't explicitly say the word 'teacher' (he fumbles it but it's clear that's what he meant). I'm assuming you No holders haven't been burnt by the UMA gods yet. Consider it your initation when this resolves to Yes.

2

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yeah, no doubt he's a lunatic.

0

XiJinPing

8 months ago

that guy is crazy lol, he owns "showbiz411" and all his articles are click bait. read up on the past articles and see how crazy they were

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This article indicates he's at Cornell. It's a rumor but the reporter was a former Fox news guy so he may have some inside connections. https://www.showbiz411.com/2024/08/31/exclusive-barron-trump-college-mystery-solved-he-may-already-be-stashed-at-cornells-dyson-school

2

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9wJ4L-cZr8 glhf

0

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Amen.

0

SusanWarren,HR

8 months ago

It should. God = Jesus = The Holy Ghost. It's all right there in the Bible.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Easiest money here right now.

0

PunishedCK

8 months ago

Penn = Fracking = Drill Baby Drill

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Last 3 of 4 he did. He didn't at Asheboro, NC with Vance.

0

BigDoh

8 months ago

Has he said tampon at every rally?

Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Haha, funniest comment here.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Her career depends on a steady supply of ex-boyfriends

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, agreed. Johnstown is smack in the middle of the expansive Marcellus Shale deposit. It's a major driver of the economy in this part of PA.

0

Tenebrus7

8 months ago

Drill Baby Drill - for sure, expresses the support for drilling gas/oil. Johnstown is working class city, Trump said before there:This is the place where generations of tough, strong Pennsylvania workers mine the coal, work the railroads, and forge the steel,”

Bachelorette Winner?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Going long on Jonathan with the logic that his appearance on Men Tell All was fake, intended to throw people off and have a finale with maximum drama.

1

NYC congestion pricing before election?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"New York’s congestion pricing plan may return with lower tolls after November elections" https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/will-new-york-manhattan-congestion-pricing-come-back-mta-hochul/725194/

0

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

UPDATED to include "Joy". Here is a summary of her word counts from her DNC acceptance speech. She spoke for 35 minutes. Abortion 4; Artificial Intelligence 1; Beyonce 0; Border 7; Ceasefire 1; Crypto/Bitcoin 0; DEI 0; Democracy 2; Inflation 0; JD Vance 0; Joy 849; Oakland 1; Palestine/Palestinian 1; Project 2025 1; Prosecutor 3; San Francisco 0; Tips 0; Wall 0; Weird 0; Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

4

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Nicely done sir!

0

Car

8 months ago

I was wrong. Congrats to YES holders. However I leave this market with 2,000$ in profit, so i am happy nonetheless!

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Congrats you Yes people. I'm taking $1 in Nos as a souvenir to remember you all by.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Pack it up boys.

0

Yosef

8 months ago

PAVL DUROV WAS OFFICIALLY CHARGED BY A FRENCH JUDGE

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

9:45pm in Paris. Ruling not looking good today.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I see you haven't been burned by UMA yet.

0

🤺JustPunched

8 months ago

Durov was released from prison into a police car, and then released from the police car into a new cell.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The amount of political pressure on this French judge to charge him with anything is going to be insanely intense.

0

zuzu

8 months ago

They will meed to open Interpol case for that as this case is from Switzerland

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Bookmark my comment. I can feel it coming! : )

0

GreedyMacFear

8 months ago

this is europe, not china

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My bet is they use the abuse allegations against his child filed by his wife to hold him.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here's my suspicion, they don't have enough evidence to lock him up on the original charges so they're scrambling to find something, anything, to throw at him to keep him in pre-trial detention. Dude's gonna get charged with a lapsed parking ticket.

1

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Fellow degenerates, this is what is known as "making case law". From forever forward Polymarket has ruled that immediate family members are considered "representatives" and "official representatives". I'm sure this will never come back to haunt them.

1

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

In my heart, I knew this was the answer. : ( ...

0

AG1234

8 months ago

Look at the Venezuelan/RFK markets, Maduro's president and the court certified him, and they resolved him "No". You lose your money and get scammed is what happens

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The only way better rules get made is if we force PM to adhere to the rules as they have written them. Why should the shareholders be the only ones experiencing pain at their lack of thinking through the "but what if" scenarios. It's their job.

1

PolyPollUser

8 months ago

Good Job on the clarification PM team. You guys need to write more and more about this to not let loud-mouth grifters like Car grif, lie and scam their way into profit. You guys just need to be more consistent in writing clarification so that we all know what to expect.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You left Paul?! I hadn't heard. So sorry.

0

SusanWarren,HR

8 months ago

The Pro Beaver predicted all of this days ago. Sell your "No" shares while you can - Susan's last warning of the night!

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Honest question, what would happen if a month from now it's revealed from Justin that it's actually a girl? At some point a scenario exactly like this is going to happen.

1

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Come watch the train wreck at the durov market.

1

sosuke

8 months ago

Ah yes another shit show on polymarket

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If you want more entertainment, take a look at the beiber baby market.

1

Amok

8 months ago

This is gonna be one of those polymarket scams again, where Durov is still in custody, but it resolves yes, because he was released from initial police custody. Similar to how Maduro "lost" the Venezuelan election, but is still president, or Kennedy dropped out but maintains he didn't and is still on the ballot.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If we go strictly by the rules, he was released from custody from the prison and this should resolve to "Yes". Dude this is exactly why I am not going anywhere near this nonsense. Classic Polymarket.

1

MALDEMER

8 months ago

...but they did think this through. "Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"."

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You bought back in? May god have mercy on your soul!

0

Car

8 months ago

France: Telegram CEO also targeted by an investigation for violence against one of his children: AFP source

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This is classic Polymarket not taking 15 minutes to think through the "but what if" scenarios. I'm sure most people bet on this market assuming this was about charging him, not about being released to go from prison to court. Good luck, have fun, and don't bet beyond your means!

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

An honest 'good luck' to you. You're probably right on this one.

0

averagejoe

8 months ago

bro sold his $50 shares and giving life update 😂

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Paper hands has entered the chat. This is going to turn into another RFK market. I'll enjoy the drama from the sidelines. Good luck all!

2

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There's no ambiguity here. CNN chose to use the word "release" but it has no legal basis here as they are not part of the judicial system. They might as well have said "taken" to court as much as "released" to court.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That changes to something new every time you click on it. It's worthless.

0

averagejoe

8 months ago

Click on the "Market Summary" from the Perplexity AI above: "Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was released from police custody in France on Wednesday, August 28, 2024, after being detained for four days. He was arrested at Le Bourget airport near Paris on Saturday, August 24, as part of a judicial investigation into allegations that Telegram was used for various crimes, including child sexual abuse material distribution and drug trafficking. Following the expiration of his 96-hour custody period, Durov was transferred to court for further questioning and potential indictment. His release from police custody marks a significant development in the ongoing case."

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Guess he aint free then.

0

n/a

8 months ago

yes he does go voluntarily or else he'd be a fugitive

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK 2.0 baby!

0

GreedyMacFear

8 months ago

This is so much fun.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, and his first course of action as a free man is to head to a courthouse to receive a sentencing?

0

NIGGA

8 months ago

He quite literally is FREE.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If he were released do you really think he would be voluntarily going to court for possible sentencing right now? He's still in custody. PM Rules: "Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"."

1

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

CNN "released from police custody in France on Wednesday and transferred to court for questioning ahead of a possible indictment" PM Rules: "Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"."

2

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Read the full CNN article.

1

Whome

8 months ago

https://x.com/RadarHits/status/1828796510680813893

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's sent to a vote, you can see the results as they come in here: https://vote.uma.xyz/

0

Fred19999

8 months ago

So this will resolve 50-50? What is happening

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm just recommending you read the article. Nothing has changed.

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

Deep breath kids, nothing has changed. Read the full article. "released from police custody in France on Wednesday and transferred to court for questioning ahead of a possible indictment" https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/28/tech/pavel-durov-telegram-custody-released-intl/index.html

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

From the Rules, "Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"."

4

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Deep breath kids, nothing has changed. Read the full article. "released from police custody in France on Wednesday and transferred to court for questioning ahead of a possible indictment" https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/28/tech/pavel-durov-telegram-custody-released-intl/index.html

3

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here is a summary of her word counts from her DNC acceptance speech. She spoke for 35 minutes. Abortion 4; Artificial Intelligence 1; Beyonce 0; Border 7; Ceasefire 1; Crypto/Bitcoin 0; DEI 0; Democracy 2; Inflation 0; JD Vance 0; Oakland 1; Palestine/Palestinian 1; Project 2025 1; Prosecutor 3; San Francisco 0; Tips 0; Wall 0; Weird 0; Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

8

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I agree which is why I don't own any.

0

TheOneB

8 months ago

Border 25 times seems like a easy no

Bachelorette Winner?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Is this appropriate behavior in the workplace?

0

SusanWarren,HR

9 months ago

Devin is an absolute heartthrob.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Wisconsin is one of the few providers of the high quality sand that is used in fraking though. It's big business in WI.

0

elon69

8 months ago

Drill baby drill is a toss up alright since Wisconsin doesnt have fracking

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

He said Border 59 times in his speech in AZ five days ago. Agreed it seems unlikely here but it's definitely in contention.

2

TheOneB

8 months ago

Border 25 times seems like a easy no

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

32% of votes have been revealed and it's strongly favoring "Too early" at 91%. Take that with a grain of salt though, similar thing happened in the rfk markets and then it quickly turned.

0

Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I want to report some inappropriate touching that has occurred in my department.

0

SusanWarren,HR

8 months ago

I just want to ask everyone to make this a safe space for baal and make everyone feel welcome.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

UMA votes starting in 8 minutes. Good luck all, this is gonna be one for the history books. https://vote.uma.xyz/

2

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Ah, I think you're correct. That may have been Kari Lake who spoke just before him.

1

mr.ozi

8 months ago

When in the Arizona speech does he mention Fentanyl? I cannot find it.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There's still time. It'll go down and hold around 6% then make a slow march to 1% as 2024 comes to an end.

0

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Given that this only resolves after the final rule becomes effective, which is usually 30 or 60 days after publication of the new rule, why is this not already at 99c, given that the hearings will be held on December 2nd. And that’s already under the assumption that they publish the rule immediately after the hearing, which is almost guaranteed to not be the case, as there will be significant debate at the hearings over whether to deschedule completely or reschedule to Class 3 (since this is incredibly important for cannabis businesses).

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I thought Pertsev was charged with money laundering two days after his arrest.

0

Bumba

8 months ago

they call it 'pre-trial detention', apparently.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No one knows for sure, we're all just guessing based on intuition and limited information. Welcome to the party.

0

baalenjoyer

8 months ago

I'm suprised by the price considering the authorities said they will hold him till 28th only. But I guess I'm missing something

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

link?

0

zuzu

8 months ago

A groundbreaking investigation just popped up that he was visiting Russia a lot despite passionately denying it publicly and collaborated with Russian government. Maybe something serious is really coming up

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep. Rallies are typically 60 to 90 minutes for Trump. Town halls are 30 to 60 minutes.

0

tomxeth

8 months ago

I think town halls are usually shorter than rallies, right?

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I suspect you're correct but the nature of this arrest (he didn't commit crimes, some of his users did) and the unanticipated political pressure against France is going to have some play here.

1

scattering

8 months ago

he's not gonna make it, lol. i could sell it rn but i'd really be curious why the judge would give him house arrest or release him, lol

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@SlaylorGiftFromGod NYU is considered far more liberal than Columbia.

0

sandimashighschoolfootballrules

8 months ago

FWIW, I know people are thinking Cornell, but Cornell is already in session - first classes were yesterday. If he was there, I’m fairly certain we would have evidence. Doesn’t mean there isn’t some exception - just noting.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There's a case for Durov because this is the exact type of scenario Trump stays up worrying about. He's terrified of it happening to him. I could totally see him saying something like, "And Durov, did you see this, it's unbelievable folks, unbelievable, they just come in the middle of the night and arrest you. No charges, you just disappear. Imagine that. That's the america that Commiela Harris wants for you."

5

n/a

8 months ago

why Pavel is cheap?

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There are many other cases of executives arrested upon entrance into a foreign country (Ghosn, Wanzhou, Spavor, Whelan) but there were legitimate charges against them. This arrest is completely wonky. Durov runs a site where some people may have committed crimes on the platform. Unless they have him on financial or espinage crimes, I'd expect his release tomorrow.

4

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

See my comments below. Looks pretty dead. You got here when there was still meat on the bone.

0

Car

8 months ago

im copy trading Domer on whatever he just found out

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Nah, everything about this is kept top secret. They didn't even announce his name at his high school graduation.

1

sandimashighschoolfootballrules

8 months ago

Barron wasn’t a college recruit to any D-1 school. That would already be known.

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Good catch. Columbia would be my bet as it caters to the very wealthy and elite. Classes start September 3rd.

0

sandimashighschoolfootballrules

8 months ago

FWIW, I know people are thinking Cornell, but Cornell is already in session - first classes were yesterday. If he was there, I’m fairly certain we would have evidence. Doesn’t mean there isn’t some exception - just noting.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The kiosk clinic at your local Walmart.

1

DbO

8 months ago

Too vague - "other reputable medical institutions" - which are these ?

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I hear they have Trump steaks in the cafeteria. The best steaks, believe me. You wouldn't believe how good these steaks are.

4

idfkanything

8 months ago

He’s going to Trump university, obviously.

Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6?

LMNOP

8 months ago

One further thought here. That article identifies about a dozen paragraphs of plagarism. Her Ph.D. dissertation is 286 pages long. This isn't egregious enough to let her go or for her to resign.

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

"No"s probably have it here. I've read through the side by side comparisons of the alleged plagarism and, yeah, it's clear she swiped a bunch of stuff but there's enough wiggle room there for her to stay. Most likely avenue for her leaving would be her own resignation and she'll use the "I'm the victim here" mindset to stay. Good side by sides here if you want to read them: https://freebeacon.com/campus/robin-diangelo-plagiarized-minority-scholars-complaint-alleges/

Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"No"s probably have it here. I've read through the side by side comparisons of the alleged plagarism and, yeah, it's clear she swiped a bunch of stuff but there's enough wiggle room there for her to stay. Most likely avenue for her leaving would be her own resignation and she'll use the "I'm the victim here" mindset to stay. Good side by sides here if you want to read them: https://freebeacon.com/campus/robin-diangelo-plagiarized-minority-scholars-complaint-alleges/

0

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

DEA rescheduled the public hearing to December 2nd. "The DEA has not issued a timeline" "The meeting may be moved to a different location and may be continued from day to day or recessed to a later date without notice, the agency said." I can't imagine getting through the public hearing, aggregating all that feedback, navigating the politics, not to mention the Christmas holidays. Not looking good but who knows, maybe they'll fast track it at the 11th hour. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dea-sets-hearing-on-cannabis-rescheduling-and-delays-decision-until-after-the-election-9e41e72e

0

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

What are you referring to specifically?

0

ohkeh

8 months ago

Not updating the rules with additional clarification around word morphology is insane. How are people so blinded by bias and arrogance?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@Outsided Thanks. Make sense, I'm an idiot.

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here is a summary of his word counts from the past two speeches (AZ/NC). He spoke for about an hour each time. Alien (8/1); Border (59/13); Border czar (2/1); Comrade Kamala (7/7); Drill baby drill (0/0); Fake news (4/8); Fentanyl (2/0); Marxist (1/4); MAGA (0/0); Tampon (2/0); World war three (0/2); We need a clarification if "make america great again" counts as MAGA. Leaving out Pavel since that's new news. Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@cheerio See comments above. Appears they are cycling through a word bank and everyone is seeing different words in that section. So, so, so completely unnecessary to do this. Good lord.

0

cheerio

8 months ago

Rules Donald Trump is scheduled to host a town hall event in La Crosse, Wisconsin, scheduled for Thursday, August 29, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Ahhh, ok, mine says "World War 3". Appears they are cycling through a word bank? How completely odd, unnecessary, and misleading. Jeez.

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here is a summary of his word counts from the past two speeches (AZ/NC). He spoke for about an hour each time. Alien (8/1); Border (59/13); Border czar (2/1); Comrade Kamala (7/7); Drill baby drill (0/0); Fake news (4/8); Fentanyl (2/0); Marxist (1/4); MAGA (0/0); Tampon (2/0); World war three (0/2); We need a clarification if "make america great again" counts as MAGA. Leaving out Pavel since that's new news. Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I simply don't see that in the Rules. Maybe I'm going blind?

0

cheerio

8 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his appearance at this event.

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Where do you see this? Honestly this is a recurring problem with PM. They don't think through the full implications of their rules. smh.

1

cheerio

8 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his appearance at this event.

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"French authorities can detain and interview the Telegram founder for up to 96 hours — and that deadline is coming up fast. After that, the court has to decide whether he will be formally indicted for some or all of the charges mentioned above." https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/27/paris-court-explains-why-they-arrested-telegrams-pavel-durov/?guccounter=1

1

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This shows uncertainty in the police. They didn't charge him when they arrested him and now they're trying to buy more time. Dude's got top A+ lawyers.

0

pirateshere

8 months ago

Telegram boss Durov to remain in French police custody, prosecution office says https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/telegram-boss-durov-remain-french-police-custody-prosecution-office-says-2024-08-27/

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Ah Car, I see we meet again. : )

0

Car

8 months ago

Only 3 more full days left😃

Pavel Durov released in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm going with Yes on this one. You can't hold someone indefinitely without charging them with something. The fact that he wasn't charged immedately on arrest indicates that he might be released soon.

1

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Pavel is an interesting bet. These kinds of spooky arrests are the exact things that keep Trump up at night. "Am I next????"

0

SusanWarren,HR

8 months ago

Pavel Durov, so hot right now, Pavel Durov...

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here is a summary of his word counts from the past two speeches (AZ/NC). He spoke for about an hour each time. Alien (8/1); Border (59/13); Border czar (2/1); Comrade Kamala (7/7); Drill baby drill (0/0); Fake news (4/8); Fentanyl (2/0); Marxist (1/4); MAGA (0/0); Tampon (2/0); World war three (0/2); We need a clarification if "make america great again" counts as MAGA. Leaving out Pavel since that's new news. Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

7

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Good christ man, what did you buy in at? That is an absolutely killer pending win.

0

🤺JustPunched

8 months ago

Last one out please turn off the lights

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Some additional thoughts from an independent observer here: Barron loves playing soccer. Cornell has a strong athletic program and the campus is sought by athletes. NYU competes at Division III. Cornell and Columbia compete at Division I. (I own 1 no share to keep it on my portfolio radar.)

1

Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Please take a look at "Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?" market? It's currently trading at 47%.

0

Chrissistar04

8 months ago

You sold:-(

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Might I interest you in the "Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?" market? It's currently trading at 47%.

1

baal

8 months ago

Run from this site

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Delayed until after election. "DEA Schedules Hearing On Marijuana Rescheduling, Delaying Reform Until After Election" https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-schedules-hearing-on-marijuana-rescheduling-proposal-delaying-final-rule/

2

Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Here we are again with limited effort by PM to think through the "but what if" Rules scenarios. If she "suspends" or "pauses" her campaign, does this count as "withdraw"? Current Rules indicate a clear "No". Is PM going to issue an 11th hour "suspend = withdraw" Additional Comments here well after the majority of votes are cast? Please for the love of god PM, hire one competent technical/political writer.

4

Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Did.

1

Chrissistar04

8 months ago

Buy

Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Harris is up 19% points in that prediction chart. That is a tough wall to overcome.

1

Another Trump x Musk space before October?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Near zero chance here. Their first meeting on Twitter/X tarnished both men's names. It was a rambling brofest of nonsense half-thoughts. Why would they do this again?

4

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Jesus, Ghandi, and Mother Teresa could all say it's a boy and it still would not meet the Rules for a "Boy" resolution. The Rules here are crystal clear: "The resolution source for this market will be official information Hailey and Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives."

0

TrumpGonnaPump

8 months ago

scammer cat says people magazine interview doesn't mention gender well here you go: https://people.com/justin-hailey-bieber-overjoyed-arrival-of-baby-son-jack-blues-exclusive-8701096

Will the election be called on Nov 5?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This is an excellent example of how PM does not think through their Rules when posting new markets. Going strictly by the Rules, if AP and NBC call for Harris and Fox calls for Trump, this should resolve to Yes.

9

Gena🐊

8 months ago

What if they call it for different candidates? Wouldn't be the first time

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Sweet christ these markets need a vetting process on the language they use. Title says "coin", rules say "token", and then additional rules completely negate the spirit of the market by saying, " Tokens launched prior to the start date of this market will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.". Dumpster fire of a market all around.

2

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Some additional thoughts from an indepent observer here: Barron loves playing soccer. Cornell has a strong athletic program and the campus is sought by athletes. NYU competes at Division III. Cornell and Columbia compete at Division I.

0

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Some additional thoughts from an indepent observer here, Barron loves playing soccer. Cornell has a strong athletic program and the campus is is sought by students student-athlete experiences. NYU competes at Division III. Cornell and Columbia compete at Division I.

0

Will California's Living Wage Act pass?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No dog in the race here but if I had cash on the sidelines I'd vote "Yes" simply based on the fact that campaign finance reports show Support has received $10M while Oppose is only a $10k. https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_32,_$18_Minimum_Wage_Initiative_(2024)#Opposition

0

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

We've got a clearer set of rules here. Let's focus on available facts and make this a fair fight.

0

Apsalar

8 months ago

This comment section deserves a better class of schizo

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Let us bind up the nation's wounds, care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan.

0

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Baal I’m on your side I had 14k no in that market but please keep it to that markets comments stop spamming every single market about it

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Columbia and Cornell carry more prestige than NYU. It's all about image with this family.

0

Will Barron Trump attend NYU?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's probably going to be NYU, Cornell or Columbia according to this article. https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2024/08/23/barron-trump-college-new-york-university-melania-florida/74921372007/ Cornell is most closely related to the Republican party so likely "No" on this market.

0

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Harris is up 19 points in fivethirtyeight's "Who Is Favored" chart. Five days left for this market is strongly favoring the "No"s here. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

0

What will JD Vance say during Michigan rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Did you see the video of him in the donut shop? He's got "ok great" locked down pretty well. : )

5

factman

8 months ago

does JD even have any guaranteed phrases

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The additional context was added after the vast majority of votes were cast. I'm in for a minimal amount so no sweat here but every single person in this market should be very carefully thinking about how PM/UMA handled it because it turned into 100 monkeys trying to f* a football.

3

baal

8 months ago

You guys don't get it. It doesn't matter if RFK is campaigning, receiving endorsements, his VP says they didn't drop out, or he remains on the ballot- Polymarket told us how the market should go (and that's a good thing) (also not market manipulation)

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives" Harv/Tammy are not reps.

0

;lkhkjgjkb

8 months ago

Doesnt matter. Biological sex is a boy. According to Harv and Tammy Bieber on Justins IG pic

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

For the integrity of this platform, every "Boy" voter here should be demanding "Too early" to resolve. The Rules have not been met. "Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives" are the only authorites here. We all know it's extremely like to resolve to "Boy" but the conditions of the Rules must be met otherwise they are merely Guidelines.

4

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@brentradess I'm not. Car and I have had heated disagreements in other markets.

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

What is the downside to waiting here for formal confirmation from "Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives"?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

O Captain! My Captain!

5

hillary2win

8 months ago

A good captain goes down with the ship. And in this case i was a good captain

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

lol, enjoy my money you brute!

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Thank you NO HOLDERS for financing my MYTHRA BODY PILLOW, I appreciate your KINDNESS.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Nah, going down with the ship if that's what fate decides.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

No holders have suddenly dissapeared like a bunch of DISGUSTING bugs when you lift up a rock.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Betting aside, I appreciate your humor.

2

BlackSky123

8 months ago

And now the bus begins to burn, with the notard scam squad inside.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Come join the clusterf at rfk endorse!

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

I give up! Nos win.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Y'all looking good so far "No"s. You're on the right side of history.

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

86% Too Early and holding https://vote.uma.xyz/ God bless america

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Not to late for Team red. Come join.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

crying rn

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Come join the sh*tshow

0

Car

8 months ago

interesting start for NO

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

UMA at 88% Too Early!

5

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

https://vote.uma.xyz/ This is where the resolution occurs.

0

Borgo

8 months ago

erm, what does that mean?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Good christ, this is restoring some of my faith in PM.

6

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Sending good vibes to "No"s. You're at 95.8% on the resolution so far. https://vote.uma.xyz/

3

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It'd be here but voting has closed. https://discord.com/invite/uma Reveal is in 24 hours.

0

markxc27

8 months ago

Can someone link me to how I provide evidence from the campaign directly that they have not fully dropped out of the presidential race?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Where can I see this?

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Notards got a peek at the answer key and are VERY UPSET they got they chose the wrong option!

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Good luck "No" holders, you're on the right side of history.

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, 100% agreed. I'm only in for a minimal amount so I'm really here to see if PM has an ounce of integrity to uphold their original Rules.

0

Au-gust

8 months ago

Now I'm not sure which way it'll resolve, but i don't want it for the money anymore, just to see these smug Yes holders who aren't betting on the rules or the market–but instead the intuition that whales will settle it to keep PM consistent

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I have no $ in this market. I'm only trying to force adherence to the standard and Rules that PM themselves set up. Like I've said in other posts, you have to agree with this at a minimum and ideally actively support this kind of rigor for any integrity to be maintained here.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Tammy Bieber and Harv referred to the baby with male pronouns, this can resolve yes now. Don't let rules terrorists win and delay payouts.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's fine but they're not "Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives".

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Tammy Bieber and Harv referred to the baby with male pronouns, this can resolve yes now. Don't let rules terrorists win and delay payouts.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm not clear how this is relevent to the current market?

2

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Just look at how completely fucktarded hillary2win's bets are LMAO. This is the biggest brainpower you notards have.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

To paraphrase the good Capt. Picard, "[Polymarket] is not an organization that ignores its own regulations when they become inconvenient."

0

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

100% agree. Closing this early is a complete rebuke on PM's integrity.

3

Car

8 months ago

no downside. its only good to do, so 1M$ in bets dont get rugged if he announces its a girl with nickname Jack. You just never know with celebs.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

What is the downside to waiting here for formal confirmation from "Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives"?

3

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I hate to be that guy but this does not count. Truly I'm sorry. The Rules, however inadequate, have to be followed.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Actually nevermind, per another comment, Tammy Bieber - “Congratulations!! I love him already ❤️” Harv (Justin’s best friend) - “Let’s goo!! Can’t wait to meet him!” I think we can resolve boy now

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This is 100% what is truly at stake here.

3

hillary2win

8 months ago

Its a test on whether UMA oracles work properly or not.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My guy, buy a dollar for $0.97 then.

1

Justifax

8 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias this is precisely how all you chumps lose it everytime.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Either we follow the original rules as stated or we can live in a world of chaos.

1

Justifax

8 months ago

oh no wait, i was wrong UMA is going to ignore its own rules about clarifications and hand over 2M to a bunch of people who thought Michelle Obama was going to be our next president because they bet 50K or so. Lulz. Stop living in lotto land people. This is exactly how you lose it all on prediction markets.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Eh, f-it, I'm buying all of you clowns beers no matter how this resolves.

7

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You are probably right but the Rules are the ultimate aribter here which state, "This market will resolve to "Boy" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives". To protect the integrity of all of your future bets you have to at a minimum agree with this position and ideally actively support it.

1

;lkhkjgjkb

8 months ago

Nah youre just trying to make it about you and insert yourself in the story. The AP wouldnt have reported it a boy if they didnt talk to direct representatives. You sound lame

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Men, Now is the time. The moment we’ve prepared for, the test of our courage and our resolve. The eyes of the world are upon us, watching and waiting to see what kind of men we are. Stand tall, fight hard, and let the world remember our bravery.

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Going down with the ship. glhf.

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

The people who rode the no pump are kinda chads, anyone still holding is retarded tho.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. SS protection only ends when a candidate formally ends their campaign.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Yep, and he withdrew. Otherwise Secret Service protection would not have ended.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The clarification was made two days ago after the vast majority of votes were cast. Who in their right mind can support this 11th hour changing of the rules. Think of the implications.

2

yourrapist1776

8 months ago

The clarification is also very literal. You just made your account yesterday so I guess you don't know the implications of what that means for your position

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There have been plenty of politicians who have supported candidates without endorsing them. Come join team red.

3

BlackSky123

8 months ago

RFK: I'm throwing my support behind Trump, vote for Trump. Notards: Not an endorsement!

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. Car is 100% correct. There has been no confirmation on gender. Either we abide by the rules or we don't. Saying "it's probably a boy because Jack is a predominantly boy's name" has zero bearing here.

2

;lkhkjgjkb

8 months ago

Nah youre just trying to make it about you and insert yourself in the story. The AP wouldnt have reported it a boy if they didnt talk to direct representatives. You sound lame

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No holders are simply betting on the original Rules as stated (which PM should honor at the expense of their credibility).

5

Justifax

8 months ago

The real scammers in this market were the pumpers and dumpers, the ones who bought under 1c, pumped it up to 5c, and sold. They are by far the worst. The secondary scammers are the traders who buy and sell and feed off the scam, sucking up rewards as well. They want these scam markets. It's trading profit. The final scammer is Polymarket who thinks this volume is a good thing and doesn't shut it the ffffck down.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. The real scammers were PM not having a robust rule set and clearly indicating outcomes for edge cases.

6

Justifax

8 months ago

The real scammers in this market were the pumpers and dumpers, the ones who bought under 1c, pumped it up to 5c, and sold. They are by far the worst. The secondary scammers are the traders who buy and sell and feed off the scam, sucking up rewards as well. They want these scam markets. It's trading profit. The final scammer is Polymarket who thinks this volume is a good thing and doesn't shut it the ffffck down.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Good luck boys. https://vote.uma.xyz/ Gonna be a wild f*ing ride!

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm already on team "No" but I also want this to resolve fairly. What you're posting here is not relevant to the outcome.

0

HsB34sgg

8 months ago

The Federal Election Committee actually has a page on how to endorse a political candidate. Writen formal endorsements are required by the big players since top politics is a big money game. An FEC judge must certify a filed endorsement letter. https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/making-disbursements-ssf-or-connected-organization/endorsement-examples/

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

100% correct. This market is not "Will Bieber baby have a predominantly boys name?"

1

Car

8 months ago

Disputed again! No new information about the gender.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My guy, the rules state "This market will resolve to "Boy" if Hailey/Justin Bieber, or one of their official representatives announces they are having a boy." That simply has not happened.

0

PolyPollUser

8 months ago

Boy bettors, let's collect all the comments of representatives who have said it's a boy and post it properly in the #evidence-rationale section of UMA discord. Despite the popular opinion, UMA is reasonable. We just need to collect the evidence and post it there properly so that UMA voters know the contest. We have 24 hours to do this before voting begins. Lets not let grifters like Cat shape the narrative in UMA's discord.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Crystal clear would be "We welcome our baby boy Jack". You don't have that here. Either we're following rules or we're not.

0

kingsirpredictionconnoisseur

8 months ago

It is crystal clear it is a boy, can we please stop disputing every market

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

LMNOP

8 months ago

There is zero downside to let this ride until there is formal confirmation of gender.

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Blue, come join team red. It's a wild ride sir!

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

RFK: You should vote for Trump. Notards: Not an endorsement!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My guy, it does not say "Guidelines" for that section, it says "Rules". Either we're following the rules or we're not.

4

Justifax

8 months ago

The rules are just guidelines and not meant to be literal. They can't be. They never defined 'formal' or 'endorsement'. So what are we left with? Just go with the headlines and call it a day. Poly staff are not reporters. They have no clue what qualifies as endorsement or doesn't. Let the experts at wsj/reuters/ap do their job.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

bro went hard

1

scottilicious

8 months ago

lying sack of shit or subpar intelligence: the no commitments was in reference to a cabinet position not in reference to the endorsement which he did not deny... good luck shilling your bags clown

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Where do you see their votes?

1

MOA

8 months ago

The UMA vote isn’t looking good, all the whales have their thumb on the scale…..

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

~3 hours. https://vote.uma.xyz/ Welcome goat.

0

hillary2win

8 months ago

is the reveal the time we see how it resolves? also thank you for your advocacy efforts

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. His "No" was in response to "Have you talked about a cabinet position ...".

0

vote.fun

8 months ago

P4 (Too early) RFK CONFIRMS IN NEW FOX INTERVIEW HE HAS NOT ENDORSED TRUMP (TIMESTAMP 1:05): Reporter: Have you talked about a cabinet position or another position in exchange for your endorsement? RFK: NO, THERE HAVE BEEN NO COMMITMENTS, we spoke with trump and made a general commitment we were going to work together. https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1827749244918522023

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

How is this an unbiased arbiter? Can't the person with the most cash/uma dollars tip the scales?

1

politicschange

8 months ago

dispute process almost over

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Where do you see this?

0

politicschange

8 months ago

dispute process almost over

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Can't. No cash on the sidelines. Could you be a dear and loan me $100? I'll gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

0

Chrissistar04

8 months ago

During his public address today, RFK Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind President Trump. He stated that he is “joining the Trump campaign”, and that he “no longer believe[s] that [he has] a realistic path to electoral victory… ” Furthermore, a consensus of credible reporting states that he ended his presidential bid. Therefore, this market should resolve to “Yes.”

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. That is specific to SSFs, not individuals.

2

HsB34sgg

8 months ago

The Federal Election Committee actually has a page on how to endorse a political candidate. Writen formal endorsements are required by the big players since top politics is a big money game. An FEC judge must certify a filed endorsement letter. https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/making-disbursements-ssf-or-connected-organization/endorsement-examples/

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Looks mixed P4/P2. The problem is that PM feels compelled to add Additional Context at the 11th hour that fundamentally changes the original Rules.

1

Chrissistar04

8 months ago

What is the result on Discord?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Noted.

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

ChatGPT: yes holders are more likely to eat their main meal before the dessert, whereas no holders are more likely to eat the dessert first.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's great but this market is not "Will RFK suspend his campaign". It's will he "withdraw".

1

Chrissistar04

8 months ago

During his public address today, RFK Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind President Trump. He stated that he is “joining the Trump campaign”, and that he “no longer believe[s] that [he has] a realistic path to electoral victory… ” Furthermore, a consensus of credible reporting states that he ended his presidential bid. Therefore, this market should resolve to “Yes.”

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Haha, no cash on the sidelines else I would. I'm mired down in the clustf at RFK Trump August Endorsement.

0

sharks

8 months ago

Come join in the fun

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm honestly asking how you can be Yes with this Rule in place, "If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal [...] this market will resolve to "No"".

2

BlackSky123

8 months ago

ChatGPT: yes holders are more likely to eat their main meal before the dessert, whereas no holders are more likely to eat the dessert first.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

yep, wish I saw this one first. Easy "No" here. : (

0

sharks

8 months ago

This will be an extremely bad look for Polymarket. They are in a tough situation. I hope they respect the objective truth.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This to me is the real takeaway from all of it. So much nonsense could be avoided if PM invested a little bit of time thinking through the "but what if" scenarios and including them in the Rules.

4

baal

8 months ago

Honestly if polymarket learned anything, you need to get some based cons on your context team, liberals think headline = fact. Liberals are not good with truth

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Come join the clusterf at the "RFK endorses Trump by August" market if you want more drama in your life. : )

0

sharks

8 months ago

This will be an extremely bad look for Polymarket. They are in a tough situation. I hope they respect the objective truth.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's 100% completely this simple folks. "Yes" is going to get burned hard here.

1

baal

8 months ago

If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to "No".

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yeah, the dropout one is an even clearer No than this one. I just noticed that one today. No cash on the sidelines to invest there but I'll toss in my opinion on it. : )

1

baal

8 months ago

Polymarket could avoid this from happening from adding false context telling people to bet a certain way, what a crazy idea eh?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's all well and good but that is not what the Rules say. This is where you are going to get burned, "If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal [...] this market will resolve to "No"

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Nobody ever ends their campaign, ever. They always "pause" or "suspend" it. We have Nikki Haley precedence for yes, and Polymarket clarification and the November and September markets to maintain consistency with. This is the last chance for the no scam squad to get off before the bus burns with them inside.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I don't have a dog in this race but going by the Rules this is a clear "No" due to "If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal [...] this market will resolve to "No".

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Uma discord, #evidence-rationale https://discord.com/invite/uma

0

Isucku4currency

8 months ago

Where can i see this p4 and p1 option?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If a "formal endorsement" had occurred by RFK, it would be so overwhelmingly obvious none of this discussion would be taking place.

7

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Polymarket didn’t foresee this happening. Nobody did. But as per the pre-determined rules it is a no. Polymarket wrongly added false context. Yes voters should be refunded their stake.

NYC congestion pricing before election?

LMNOP

8 months ago

New plan is proposed for January 2025. This looks dead. https://www.newsday.com/news/region-state/kathy-hochul-congestion-pricing-e9g5b8rs

0

RFK Jr. endorses Trump before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

A formal endorsement would not require a library of supporting documentation. The very fact that you feel a truckload of evidence needs to be supplied is a clear indication that no formal endorsement occurred.

3

Bitcoin1776

8 months ago

Yes campaigners, YOU GOT THIS! - here is a DETAILED account of the SUBSTANTIVE evidence in support of yes - YOU WILL BE VICTORIOUS! I have already made my post on UMA - please cite further examples, as my post length is limited - WE WILL IN! FIGHT! https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Cw7AT70OZIfiJhvp4PJ8QNi8PfJLJC06xy93-Eaor9I/edit?usp=sharing

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d

1

Bumba

8 months ago

could you provide any links?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. There have been many politicians who have supported candidates without endorsing them.

3

LordDCF

8 months ago

Support == Endorse. He has said that he is supporting Trump many times and in many tweets. You "NO" guys are desperate.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

We're living in a world where Yes holders believe RFK's position is effectively, "I'm endorsing Trump but please vote for me." Reconcile this logic for me please.

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This is a strong arguement. Are we really at the point where Yes holders think RFK's position is, "I'm endorsing Trump but please vote for me."?

2

EmpirePending

8 months ago

RFK clearly told voters he still wants them to vote for him in the 40 states where he is on the ballot. Trump is also on these 40 states’ ballots. So from this RFK is saying in 40 states he wants people to vote for him over Trump. How in the name of god is this a trump endorsement??

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's as simple as this.

0

PeterNh

8 months ago

This market is for a "formal endorsement" and people keep bringing up anything but. I don't care he he high fives Trump or tells people to vote for him. The yes people never point to a formal endorsement (because there is not one)

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir. His "No" was in response to if he were offered any cabinet positions. That aside, there has been no formal endorsement that anyone can point to.

0

Edski

8 months ago

Lol, he just said on FOX News that he did not endorse, they "just made a commitment to work together".

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Dollar dollar bill, y'all

0

BallzToTheWalz

8 months ago

Socrates asked whose bias do y'all seek? All for Plato, screech. I'm out here balling, I know y'all hear my sneaks

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's misleading. RFK's "No" here was in repsponse to "Have you all negotiated over or talked about a cabinet position, another position within a Trump government in exchange for your endorsement?" He's saying there was no cabinet position offered to him.

0

5to5000

8 months ago

RFK today when asked about his "endorsement" on fox:

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's like being half pregnant.

1

Ox8

8 months ago

Could they rule he endorsed him in some States and didnt in others and settle 50/50?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Dig further and you'll see why No holders have their position. I was a former Yes holder.

5

JohnFrumAmerica

8 months ago

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Disputes are resolved through a discord channel. P4 means "too early" to call.

0

Amok

8 months ago

What's this P4 people are talking about?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Disputes are resolve through a discord channel. P4 means "too early" to call.

0

Amok

8 months ago

What's this P4 people are talking about?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's great but this market isn't "Will RFK go on the campaign trail with Trump?"

9

·

Liked by XiJinPing, aenews2 and 7 others

JohnFrumAmerica

8 months ago

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

In my mind, a formal endorsement would require explicit use of the word 'endorse' otherwise it could be left up to interpretation. We simply don't have that here.

8

Nucclear

8 months ago

Show me a "formal endorsement" by RFK or one of his representatives (as stated in the rules) and I'll glad accept a YES resolution

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

What's the source for the explicit denial of endorsement? Most of what I've seen to date is them just dodging the issue by using words like 'support'.

0

Matthijs

8 months ago

actually RFK's team said Kennedy does not endorse Trump. And his VP and press secretary has said the same.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, all good points. You might be right but I'm sticking to No for now.

3

DeboBets

8 months ago

All those No holders who are disputing because RFK didn’t say the word “endorse”

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I don't think it's unreasonable for a "formal endorsement" to require the use of the word "endorse".

5

DeboBets

8 months ago

All those No holders who are disputing because RFK didn’t say the word “endorse”

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I think RFK himself is the No whale. Haha.

1

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Not saying it’s the right thing to do but if you were a UMA whale that is planning on insider trading, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote P4 and buy up no because the reward is so much higher. And there is substantial evidence to back up a P4 vote.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFKs name will still be on the ballot in a bunch of states. How could he run for both president and VP at the same time?

0

AccountNames

8 months ago

What's the cause of this pump?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's viewed as easy money and works 9 out of 10 times. The 10th time, as you suggest, is where the problems start.

3

EmpirePending

8 months ago

I don’t understand people that buy yes on all markets at like 95-99 for a couple few percent gain. I understand most of these markets are very likely to go in your favour so you built up 1% here 3% there and it snowballs. But one bad result and you lose everything you’ve been working towards. Losing a 95% market will happen eventually so to me it’s not worth the risk of losing everything?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Put on your seatbelts kids. This is going to crater to 50% if RFK is asked if he endorsed Trump on Fox News Sunday today at 2pm.

4

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

PM has every incentive to let UMA decide this. PM's hands would be clean. "It wasn't our decision, take it up with UMA."

0

Vulture

8 months ago

If UMA goes rogue, then Polymarket will just drop them. Because UMA is dead in the water without Poly, they have strong incentives to comply.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, perfect example of what we have here.

2

de5nuts

8 months ago

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/ayotte-tries-supporting-trump-without-endorsing-him-msna844471

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I assume they'd have to provide rationale behind their decision. And there is simply no evidence to resolve this to Yes currently.

1

EmpirePending

8 months ago

UMA will likely vote to agree with Polymarket on both disputes not because they agree with Polymarket, in fact a majority may disagree with Polymarket, but because they want the financial reward of agreeing with Polymarket.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Why anyone would be holding Yes at 96% is beyond me. This is the clearst No I've ever seen. A "formal endorsement" would be so completely obvious that it would be beyond all discussion.

8

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The simple fact that there is confusion around whether or not RFK endorsed Trump is a clear indicator that no "formal endorsement" occurred. If it had, it would be clear as day.

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

They jumped the gun assuming this was an easy Yes based on every media outlet saying RFK endorsed Trump (which never happened).

6

basedrock

8 months ago

I wonder why they didn't add "formal endorsement" in the additional context but only endorsement.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Join discord using this link https://discord.com/invite/uma to vote state your case in ⁠💬｜evidence-rationale

1

de5nuts

8 months ago

how can you get in touch with them?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

In what world would a "formal endorsement" have this level of confusion and controversy? Clearly P4.

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Welcome to the sh*t show.

2

idfkanything

8 months ago

How is this different from the already settled RFK endorsement on Friday market? The resolved reasoning is the same.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Also, RFK has deliberately avoided the word "endorse" and his campaign has said he hasn't endorsed Trump.

3

idfkanything

8 months ago

How is this different from the already settled RFK endorsement on Friday market? The resolved reasoning is the same.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." which is not present here

4

idfkanything

8 months ago

How is this different from the already settled RFK endorsement on Friday market? The resolved reasoning is the same.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Why don't you ask them and post the response here and save us the time?

9

·

Liked by aenews2, SusanWarre... and 7 others

Justifax

8 months ago

If you are a scammer, this isn't for you, if you are not a scammer go on UMA and ask the UMA staff how clarifications work. It will save you from getting sucked into this con.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, 100%. The more time that passes favors the 'No' holders.

6

Wisdomtime

8 months ago

Btw - what also IMO shows quite well that polymarket will not mandate this is that they have not updated the context further / they have not forced the resolve or changed the rules (hope someone has screenshots from the rules, as in some cases those were changed retrospectively) -- they surely understand that they have made a mistake with the context. Instead, they just want to give UMA the opportunity to do the final review

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I 'should' be retired by now with a billion dollars living on my own private island. Doesn't make it so.

2

isaidway

8 months ago

How can "it should resolve to yes" be part of any serious ruleset for a market? That, in itself, is preposterous.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I appreciate the level-headedness of this comment. That said, I don't see how a formal endorsement would have so much dispute around it. Shouldn't a formal endorsement be beyond discussion and debate?

4

TimeQuestion

8 months ago

One of the problems of using UMA and Polymarket clarifications is that new users think this market will resolve based on the original rules. It likely won't. It is more likely to resolve based on the clarification, even if the clarification is completely wrong.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Just waiting for you to point us to the "formal endorsement" from RFK.

2

Justifax

8 months ago

UMA's job is to resolve based on the incoming ruleset. The incoming ruleset here includes the additional ontext. It is not UMAs job to make up the ruleset. UMA would have a hard time getting customers if customers felt that their rules were going to be ignored.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

100% correct. RFK has been extremely deliberate in avoiding the word "endorse".

6

Robyratto1

8 months ago

There has been no formal endorsement. There is no case for this market to be resolved to yes

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I've said this several times now but it's worth repeating. A "formal endorsement" would not have any debate or controversy surrounding it. The fact that there has not been a "formal endorsement" puts this at P4 ("too early").

7

homosexual

8 months ago

Summary of evidence: Bernie market had essentially the same conditions as this market, and it resolved NO despite him actively and consistently throwing support behind Kamala, because he did not formally endorse: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724535251232. AP reported that the campaign specifically stated that they were NOT endorsing Trump: https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d#. The campaign specifically withdrew an incorrect filing which falsely claimed the campaign would endorse Trump, and specifically removed the part about endorsing Trump: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html Direct contact with the campaign also confirms he did not endorse (independent verification, which you can literally do yourself right now and find the answer, which is why I am baffled there are still so many YES holders).

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@AG1234 We need a formal endorsement. A formal endorsement would not have any ambiguity around it.

3

Justifax

8 months ago

When UMA votes YES, just remember it wasn't poly or uma that scammed you. It was the pumper and dumpers that sold at a profit that conned you into giving them your money.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Please point us to the formal endorsement by RFK or his reps.

6

Justifax

8 months ago

When UMA votes YES, just remember it wasn't poly or uma that scammed you. It was the pumper and dumpers that sold at a profit that conned you into giving them your money.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's a resolution recommendation saying that it's "too early" to call. Disputes are logged in a discord.

4

Wisdomtime

8 months ago

what do you mean with P4?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My guy ... money, mouth ... connect them.

4

Justifax

8 months ago

Anyone who read the rules knows the spirit and intention was low level of support. This is one of the least controversial resolutions that Poly has done. You're being scammed by con artists trying to profit by buying at 0.5c and selling for 10x.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

P1? End date for this market is 8/31.

3

Dmoney123

8 months ago

P1- Just how it happened with the Venezuelan President voting in Polymarket that MADURO didnt officially "win" this decision should be overturned by UMA. RFK Never officially Endorsed Anyone!!!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or one of his representatives."

3

AG1234

8 months ago

The official endorsement retraction implies an official endorsement was made. You can't retract an endorsement without having made it. I'm sure PM will throw away millions of dollars to contradict their previous decision though to ignore the official endorsement because it was "accidentally" made

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It wasn't offical my dude. It was made by someone who did not have authority to speak on RFKs behalf.

4

AG1234

8 months ago

The official endorsement retraction implies an official endorsement was made. You can't retract an endorsement without having made it. I'm sure PM will throw away millions of dollars to contradict their previous decision though to ignore the official endorsement because it was "accidentally" made

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

lol, we did that already like 5 hours ago.

2

anon413564

8 months ago

https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Point us to the formal endorsement good sir.

3

bl4ckdyn4m1t3 - 2119

8 months ago

Anybody arguing no doesn't understand that the endorsement still happened. Even if it's retracted, it still occurred. If you reach the 50 yard line and then lose yards, you still reached the 50 on that drive. Same thing.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

A "formal endorsement" wouldn't have nearly any of the level of dispute this comment section is exhibiting. It'd be clear as day.

7

isaidway

8 months ago

What if a reporter asks RFK if he has "formally endorsed" Trump and he answers no? How dumb does Polymarket look then?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Read further. "“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated."

0

ElonMuskin

8 months ago

That link says “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says in a Pennsylvania court filing that he’s endorsing Trump“

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

He's scheduled on Fox News Sunday tomorrow. Take careful not how he deliberately avoids the word 'endorse' there.

3

5to5000

8 months ago

RFK to speak tomorrow (perhaps tonight). His campaign spox has been saying its not an endorsement. Interesting to see if it gets asked.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's in dispute. That's what everyone's trying to figure out. Welcome to the party.

1

idfkanything

8 months ago

The additional context says that his words count as an endorsement. Will the additional context change? If so, is that a change in the rules? I’m just curious and do not intend to bet on this market.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I think that resolved "Yes" because of this clause, "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" which does not exist here. This market specifically states source must be RFK or RFK's team.

3

BlackSky123

8 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-during-friday-address?tid=1724530965599

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No sir, the vast majority of No holders here are completely rational. So far there's been nothing close to a formal endorsement.

4

Justifax

8 months ago

The level of scamming in this market is unreal. Trying to reverse the resolution is one level, but the pumping and dumping is next level scuz

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Are you a time traveler?

0

DevinF

9 months ago

Between Elon's hero complex and how embarrassing this is for Boeing/Nasa, there is simply no way they leave them up there for another 4+ months. SpaceX is already moving launches to account for this mission. Yes is basically free money at this point.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Death first! : )

2

Pony177

8 months ago

get fucked No holders, take the L

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's not theoretical. It was just announced SpaceX will bring them home. Total embarrassment for Boeing. Timeframe is past 2024 I think though but not a bad buy at 7% imo.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

8 months ago

This is safe to propose. They will return in february 2025. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-decides-to-bring-starliner-spacecraft-back-to-earth-without-crew/

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

SpaceX just announced they were going to bring them back. Timeframe looks to be later but this is probably undervalued at 7%.

1

Car

8 months ago

February is awfully close to 2024

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

SpaceX has entered the chat.

0

0xE42c9d2ef

8 months ago

This is safe to propose. They will return in february 2025. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-decides-to-bring-starliner-spacecraft-back-to-earth-without-crew/

Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule to return Boeing Starliner crew to Earth https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/24/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-astronauts-spacex/index.html

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"they can't just end it as "no" before the 2 day timer right?" Correct. RFK has up until the very last second to endorse Trump for this to resolve to Yes.

2

Rainiak

8 months ago

Im new on here does anyone know if they can resolve it randomly at anytime or does it give the result right when the timer is done

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If RFK says, for example, "I endorse Donald Trump for president" today, it would end today.

4

Rainiak

8 months ago

Im new on here does anyone know if they can resolve it randomly at anytime or does it give the result right when the timer is done

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Get a room you two.

2

XiJinPing

8 months ago

RFK's vice president confirmed they are NOT endorsing Trump, ONLY supporting some policies they align with - https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Both Yes holders and No holders are completely rational in their positions here. For all practical purposes, RFK informally endorsed Trump. The catch is "formally endorse" though which is much stronger statement and one RFK has deliberately avoided.

1

homosexual

8 months ago

Bernie constantly demonstrated support for Kamala Harris. But guess what? He never endorsed. He was even explicit about not endorsing. The Bernie market resolved NO! What's different about this market? That YES holders are mostly scammers?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

He's taking advantage of the volatility. Selling high, buying low.

2

Car

8 months ago

Oh No ! XiJinPin is selling after his attempt to pump the price to 100ct

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

My guy, post a link showing where he said 'endorse'.

2

PeterParkerP

8 months ago

WTF!! You know what? I like this, someone has to make money somehow . The guy literally said he is endorsing trump and multiple reports both left and right have reported this.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Use of the word "endorse" is an endorsement.

1

KenMaster

8 months ago

"decision to suspend my campaign and to support President Trump" If this isn't endorsement then what's it then? Resolve=YES!! what's wrong with ya'll

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK on Fox News Sunday tomorrow: https://www.foxnews.com/media/robert-f-kennedy-jr-appear-fox-news-sunday-1st-exclusive-interview-after-endorsing-trump

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

link to scheduled press conference?

4

XiJinPing

8 months ago

RFK will be giving a press conference tomorrow... reporter will ask if he "formally endorses", and he will say NO

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You can peek in on the discord. Majority are voting for "too early".

3

diddy

8 months ago

The real question here is whose side has UMA voting advantage

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

All aboard the pain train. Toot toot!

1

Car

8 months ago

alright, fun is over NO holders!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The point is that RFK specifically went out of his way (refiled court paperwork) to make sure he wasn't endorsing Trump. If he were formally endorsing Trump, why would he refile the court paperwork?

1

n/a

8 months ago

You are posting an article that is correcting a statement about endorsement before his formal announcement. This was published before his speech. His family has commented on his endorsement acknowledging it. He even said directly in his own words he is "Joining the trump campaign" and to have people vote/donate to Trump. That is the highest level of endorsement.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No one is pumping. RFKs campaign deliberately avoided using the word "endorse". He simply does not want to endorse Trump.

2

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Pump that no price higher boys, I know you have it in you.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Ok, well, you're the copy/paste hero we needed.

1

homosexual

8 months ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Nice find. Actual reporting. You're the hero we needed.

1

homosexual

8 months ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Sir, this is a Wendy's. Maybe you meant to post in the "drop out" market.

2

Dmoney123

8 months ago

RFK's email sent to supporters at 1:01 PM, August 24, 2024. @RobertKennedyJr -1) I am only suspending my campaign, not terminating it. -2) My name will still be on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me. -3) And if enough of you vote for me and neither of the major party candidates win 270 electoral votes, I could still end up in the White House in a contingent election.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The No holders have just as much reasonable rationale as the Yes holders here. The hitch is "formal endorsement" to resolve to Yes and we have anything but that right now.

5

nola72324

8 months ago

I understand that the No holders are pumping, but you all do realize that this resolving No after Polymarket says it will be Yes would be an existential disaster for them.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

As a No holder, you're 100% correct. These kinds of 'news sources' don't help anyone.

1

n/a

8 months ago

There is no evidence. Just a weird ass twitter post that contradicts every single media outlet in the west. You're delusional.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

You mean GiggityTitties isn't credible enough for you?

1

n/a

8 months ago

A screenshot posted on twitter has no validity at all. It contradicts EVERY single media publication. No journalist has verified or even acknowledged what is in that screenshot. Until it is verified by the Journalistic Community and the dozens of articles about his endorsement are redacted that holds no weight. I highly doubt Nicole would claim every single media outlet is publicizing false information and only correct one single person on X

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Oh jeez, that comment section is a bigger dumpster fire than this one.

0

EmpirePending

8 months ago

The drop out market resolved as yes… polymarket have a giant mess on their hands

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep, polymarket got a bunch of middleschoolers writing their Rules.

1

EmpirePending

8 months ago

The drop out market resolved as yes… polymarket have a giant mess on their hands

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Sorry man, I was the one who warned against "endorse" holders in that market.

3

JohnPork

8 months ago

if this gets overturned but I lost my money on saying No to RFK officially endorsing in Friday address…. 😕

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's interesting, we hold many of the same market bets on this site. This is the only one we disagree on.

1

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Bring that no price higher, you pathetic worms. Buy all the no you can. You have a perfectly good house just waiting to be used as collateral.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The real payout here is the friends we made along the way.

13

·

Liked by aenews2, IWillRetur... and 11 others

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

No one is doubting that RFK's speech was, for all practical purposes, an endorsement. The hitch is that the rules require a "formal endorsement" for a Yes resolution. In all of political history, endorsements have always included the use of the word "endorse". We just don' have that here (and this is coming from a No holder).

3

BlackSky123

8 months ago

Bring that no price higher, you pathetic worms. Buy all the no you can. You have a perfectly good house just waiting to be used as collateral.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Has the internet ever lied to you?

1

Anon5215

8 months ago

Is this real? Oh my god

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Ah yes, GiggityTitties, that bastion of journalistic integrity.

2

EmpirePending

8 months ago

That’s gg congrats to team no https://x.com/giggitytitties/status/1827388701481299983?s=46&t=7FgnUqPp7Ji6mCENCN9pgg

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

lol, ok. I mean if GiggityTitties tweeted it, you've sold me now.

0

XiJinPing

8 months ago

RFK's own VP confirmed they are not officialy endorsing Trump

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Pinned tweet wouldn't count unless it were posted after RFKs speech yesterday.

0

XiJinPing

8 months ago

RFK's own VP confirmed they are not officialy endorsing Trump

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Yep. It's like the rules were "Nothing less than a formal endorsement is required!" ... insert "three hours later" meme ... "eh, nevermind, the word support is good enough for us now".

6

EmpirePending

8 months ago

It was 50/50 before polymarket added context. Added context is not additional rules and therefore should not determine the outcome of a market. Yet that is what polymarket did. Everyone knows it was a rushed and mistaken added context that’s fine everyone makes mistakes. But the only reason this market went to 99 is because the rushed and mistaken context said it was a yes. If there was no added context this market would still be at 50/50 waiting for Kennedy to come out with an official formal endorsement.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Couldn't agree more. Original rules need to take precedence here. People would have voted far differently than they did if this Additional Context were part of the original rules. Nothing less than a formal endorsement should end this as Yes.

5

EmpirePending

8 months ago

If this is resolved as yes it opens the door for polymarket to add whatever kind of “context” aka rules they want even after millions of dollars has been bet and the outcome has been determined.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Couldn't agree more. Original rules need to take precedent here. Nothing less than a formal endorsement should end this as Yes.

0

EmpirePending

8 months ago

If this is resolved as yes it opens the door for polymarket to add whatever kind of “context” aka rules they want even after millions of dollars has been bet and the outcome has been determined.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

The additional context isn't part of the rules. When someone proposed to close this as "Yes" they put that in there as the justification for "Yes". You can see it's been disputed twice now.

4

isaidway

8 months ago

I’d be very wary if I was a yes holder. If you look at the yes graph for 1 week, you see the odds going from very low to around 50% at the time of the speech. That’s how the market felt about the formality of the endorsement. And then, only because of the STUPID additional context did the yes rise close to 1. But guess what, additional context are not extra rules! It doesn’t count towards the resolution. So yes holder right now, you’re essentially holding something you think is worth 95¢ but really it’s worth 50¢. Act accordingly!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It's most likely a "Yes" holder stating their justification for the "Yes" resolution when they proposed the outcome. The fact that this market hasn't closed is proof that a clear formal endorsement did not occur.

3

isaidway

8 months ago

Pardon my naive question, but do we know for sure that whoever adds those additional contexts is not a stakeholder?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

That's specific to corporations and labor organization endorsing someone. It wouldn't apply here.

1

EmpirePending

8 months ago

According to the Federal Election Committee, an endorsement is done by letter. Where is RFK’s letter? https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/making-disbursements-ssf-or-connected-organization/endorsement-examples/

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I think the "No"s have it here. The fact that the rules say "formally endorses" is what should end it as No. We have anything but a formal endorsement at this point.

4

EmpirePending

8 months ago

The price was 50c after RFK finished his speech, essentially stating the market didn’t know if it was a formal endorsement. That ambiguity therefore means it was not formal. It only went to 98/99 when polymarket added the false context. The fact that the market didn’t go to 99 after RFK stated his support for Trump proves it’s not a formal endorsement.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

@scottilicious I'm only in for a small amount so not much on the line here. I find the debate on the resolution more fascinating than the market. For all practical purposes, RFK endorsed Trump but the rules don't say "support" = "endorse".

1

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Polymarket made a mistake, they should just own it now which would then set the record straight for any future situations. If this is resolved yes it muddy the waters for future markets since the Bernie one was resolved no

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK would encourage his supporters to vote for RFK but then he'd vote for Trump? Makes no sense. He'll vote for himself.

0

ElonMuskin

8 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK very carefully chose his words and deliberately did not use "endorse". He disagrees with a lot of Trump's policies so much so that he cannot in good conscience to himself, his family, or his supporters endorse him.

3

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Polymarket made a mistake, they should just own it now which would then set the record straight for any future situations. If this is resolved yes it muddy the waters for future markets since the Bernie one was resolved no

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I'm fully open to influence here on my vote but the upside for No here is too attractive.

1

LMNOP

8 months ago

Former 'Yes' holder turned 'No' holder. When a politician "supports" a candidate, it generally means they agree with the candidate's positions or prefer them over others but might not publicly or formally declare it. "Endorsing" a candidate is a stronger, more official act where the politician publicly declares their backing, often campaigning or making statements to encourage others to vote for that candidate.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

In every other endorsement in the history of all politics an endorsement of a candidate has included the word "endorse".

1

vote.fun

8 months ago

FORMAL ENDORSEMENT is a political term. The rules specifically used it, so we expect a FORMAL ENDORSEMENT based on the definition. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/endorsing

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Former 'Yes' holder turned 'No' holder. When a politician "supports" a candidate, it generally means they agree with the candidate's positions or prefer them over others but might not publicly or formally declare it. "Endorsing" a candidate is a stronger, more official act where the politician publicly declares their backing, often campaigning or making statements to encourage others to vote for that candidate.

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

This is an issue not just with this market but many others. The Rules sections need to be more robust calling out specific criteria for resolution, i.e. "RFK must use the word 'endorse' or 'endorsing' for this market to resolve to Yes. Use of other words like 'support' will not count towards a Yes resolution." It would avoid so much confusion here.

5

EmpirePending

8 months ago

Whatever side you’re on you will agree that this so called endorsement is extremely ambiguous. Therefore, by definition, it is not formal.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Sold my Yes and bought No. His family and supporters are disgusted he put his weight behind Trump. A formal endorsement would further anger them.

5

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

100% Not going to happen in the current political climate. There is zero upside for Biden/Harris to push for this in 2024.

0

CheerfulPessimist

8 months ago

Does someone know when this will (potentially) get resolved. So, after the DEA publishes its rule, there is either a 30 or 60 waiting period until the reschedule is officially in effect. However, durig that time lawsuits can get filed that might put the reschedule on hold. I'm assuming though that this resolves as soon as the DEA publishes it's rule, regardless of the wait period, or wether it stopped by lawsuits?

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Current administration wouldn't risk the political fallout of attempting to rescheduled before the election. What's the upside for exec branch pushing for this? Zero. It's going to resolve to "No".

1

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I totally would have bet "Yes" on "Mitochondrial".

1

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Don't worry "Yes" holders, this guy is going to talk for another 12 hours. He'll say every word in the dictionary by the end.

1

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Well it doesn't look like he's ever going to stop talking so I'd say you're still in the running! : )

0

BigDoh

8 months ago

Why wouldn’t he say third party?

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Honestly I have no idea, I'm just speculating. Sorry for the anxiety.

2

BTCDegen

8 months ago

The fear mongering is strong with you. Well played.. Puking on my Endorse bet now. But holding.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Guess my point is don't freak out if he doesn't do it here.

0

scattering

8 months ago

no idea what maga rallys are like but wouldnt it be better to explain it here when ur literally dropping out?

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Nah, Trump needs his 4.7% votes badly. He'll offer him a cabinet position for his endorsement.

0

Sit

8 months ago

he won't endorse trump. And he will address that

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I suspect he will but I'm guessing he'll save that for the Trump rally later today.

0

scattering

8 months ago

nah, trust the anonymous sources, he's gonna endorse Trump. ;p

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Why would he?

0

BigDoh

8 months ago

Why wouldn’t he say third party?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It will mostly likely happen later today at Trump's rally. RFK will be the "special guest".

0

X9504

8 months ago

Don't worry "Yes" holders, he will endorse Trump as soon as Trump admits that something he did was a mistake

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"Endorse" holders are going to have a bad time here. He'll save the endorsement for the Trump rally later today where he can do it in Trumps presence.

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I don't expect he'll endorse Trump at this 2pm EST meeting where he drops out. He'll wait until the Trump rally later where he'll be the "special guest" and endorse him there in his presence.

0

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK live here on PBS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8jRnvK5W4M

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK live here PBS News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8jRnvK5W4M

4

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

LMNOP

8 months ago

I don't have money on this market but my understanding is the polls are conducted daily and whomever gains more in those 7 days is the winner. Trump has a well of votes to pick up (RFK). Harris simply doesn't.

0

TheOneB

8 months ago

that might very well be true in the long term, but this ridiculous market is about the 7 days after he drops out, and RCP takes their time adding polls to their average.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Trump's got a ton of RFK votes to pick up here. I don't see any good news here for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Why would the Kamala bump wait for the DNC to end? The RFK endorsement is going to give Trump the advantage here.

0

RyanBetting

8 months ago

Kamala is likely to get a bump in the polls from DNC coverage. It's weird that the poll would ascribe the bounce to RFK dropping out though. That will likely benefit Trump, but more than a DNC bounce? I guess smarter minds than me will bet.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Think of this from Trump's point of view. Harris is killing him in the polls, he's desperate and needs RFK endorsement for any chance of survival here. Inigo Montoya/RFK: "Offer me money. Power, too, promise me that. Offer me anything I ask for."

0

Carla

8 months ago

He won't risk a divorce from his wife. Merely dropping out without explicit Trump endorsement is sufficient.

Will RFK drop out before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK speaking at 2pm EST live here. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-rfk-jr-holds-briefing-on-his-presidential-campaign-after-withdrawal-from-arizona-ballot

0

Will RFK drop out before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

If you're in for this November vote, you might be interested in the September one as well. https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-before-september/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-before-september?tid=1724428028233

0

Will RFK be the special guest at Trump's Arizona rally?

LMNOP

8 months ago

"Donald Trump in Arizona: RFK Jr. to speak before Trump's afternoon rally" https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/22/donald-trump-arizona/74888269007/

0

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Friday

0

rugbet

8 months ago

wen he speak

Will RFK drop out before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK withdraws from AZ ballot and "On Thursday Mr. Trump’s campaign announced that the former president would have a “special guest” at his rally in Glendale, Ariz., on Friday." https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/kennedy-shanahan-withdraw-candidacy-arizona-election-2024

2

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK withdraws from AZ ballot and "On Thursday Mr. Trump’s campaign announced that the former president would have a “special guest” at his rally in Glendale, Ariz., on Friday." https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/kennedy-shanahan-withdraw-candidacy-arizona-election-2024

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Dude might know what he's doing. "Signs of Taylor Swift on Wrists at the Democratic Convention" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/style/taylor-swift-friendship-bracelets-dnc.html

0

Slaylorswift

8 months ago

Private jet from Nashville to the dnc this morning … https://x.com/chadizzy1/status/1826707357046636990?s=46

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Does his wife hate money more than Trump? A position on Trump's team would secure some level of power and income.

0

5to5000

8 months ago

Here's why at ~15% I think this is undervalued. Sure, lots of reporting that he's considering endorsing trump/dropping out, but a few points. RFK's wife hates Trump and it's now being leaked to the press that she does not want him to endorse, and there's reports of the negotiations with Trump campaign at a standstill. https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1826379237181587750 So I'm thinking he can pivot this into a pivot on how he will never give up despite media reporting, etc etc etc

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

News suggests he's going to bow out and endorse Trump on Friday in exchange for a position on Trumps team. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-plans-speech-path-forward-talk-potentially-backing-trump-rcna167606

2

Will RFK drop out before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

What's the basis for the No vote though?

0

MicR

8 months ago

I've fat fingered this garbage, instead of buying 184 shares worth $8 for a 4¢ average I got $184 worth of shares for a 8¢ average. Pray for me lads.

Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Solid points, it probably should be higher but Romania is known for lengthy court trials, with cases taking a long time to start and to be resolved.

0

eb..

8 months ago

the price should 2-3x at the very minimum. there's a new case, that is way more serious, they are going all in. multiple sex related allegations. the price should go from the bottom of 7-10 that it was, to at least 16-20, to 30 at the very minimum. problably a few people were short selling a bit as there was not much liquidity, but this is a great lock for 2024

Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?

LMNOP

8 months ago

A court ruled in April 2024 that his trial on the original charges could start. Here it is 4 months later and no trial start. The new charges would only complicate things and push a trial back further. https://apnews.com/article/andrew-tate-romania-trial-human-trafficking-rape-4dde5de557094c6eadde73722833327a

0

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

LMNOP

8 months ago

"No Change" at 7% Yes? Fed was "likely" to cut rates even before the July jobs report.

3

Will RFK drop out before November?

LMNOP

8 months ago

RFK to address America tomorrow. He's dropping out and will endorse Trump in hopes of a position on his team. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/robert-f-kennedy-jr-address-america-friday-about-present-historical-moment-his-path-forward

1

Who will speak at the DNC?

LMNOP

8 months ago

It would be to rally her fan base (younger women) to vote and a snub at Trump who recently used AI images portraying (falsely) that she supports him.

0

Shinbaxu

8 months ago

why does Taylor Swift have to go to DNC?

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Use of 'debate' in a withdraw speech though? I could see him using it if he were still running. Not here though. I can't think of a sentence in a withdraw speech that would include 'debate'. (Of course easy for me to say as I have no $ on the line).

1

elon69

8 months ago

debate is easy, nicole shanaham has already said debate many times in just short speaking time in the last few days. Its an obvious talking point

Who will speak at the DNC?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Current roster of speakers for tonight (final night): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22:_For_Our_Future)

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

LMNOP

8 months ago

Quite possible but I'm still No on her.

0

Slaylorswift

8 months ago

Taylor confirmed wow