#4666
Rank
7
Comments
2
Likes Received
38
Likes Given
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
If I offer you 1:1 and roll a hundred-sided die and claim that this die is fair. 1-99 you win, 100 I win. we roll and it comes up 100, would you reject your null hypothesis or not that it is a fair die?
0
Lyapunov
11 months ago
Made my own analysis, took my own risk. Was a 20% probability, happened. No regrets.
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
So a regression analysis based on the NOAA data would give you exactly the same 20%? And can't Giss data be explained by two independent variables or more? How do you explain that aenews bought 4 days ago for around 90c?
0
Lyapunov
11 months ago
Made my own analysis, took my own risk. Was a 20% probability, happened. No regrets.
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
look at the table, it says 121
0
0x6Fd73D35D35c4a54e0f66796FcF11D1edB85Db26-1721750436928
11 months ago
nasa said its tied? but resolved to yes? but rules say it should resolve to no?
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
Your regression analysis was based only on ERA5. At the same time, however, JRA3Q data and NOAA data also came out, which even suggested with a larger margin that July 2024 would not be the warmest. In addition, the blog post by Nick Stokes, which also suggested that it would not be the warmest month. I don't think we were unlucky, the yes holders didn't speculate on their luck, that can probably be explained differently.
0
Lyapunov
11 months ago
Made my own analysis, took my own risk. Was a 20% probability, happened. No regrets.
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
So you thought it was a coinflip, that's why you invested almost everything you had and didn't sell at 80c? Yes, that makes sense.
1
aenews2
11 months ago
@shouldntbhere I realized that people might buy N based on Copericus being colder than last year, almost 3 weeks back: https://i.imgur.com/7s7alAz.png
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
What do you mean by "big talk"? I was just stating facts and asking a question, that's really no reason to get emotional.
0
viltalik
11 months ago
probably newbies are the only ones who still have money to lose
2024 July hottest on record?
n/a
11 months ago
Yes, very strange, most no holders are losers and the yes holders are winners. And what is also strange: 11/15 accounts of no holders were registered in July/August. Is this normal behavior for newbies on this site? load up 50k and then go all-in on a single market?
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