Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

True

0

Qualitative

3 months ago

A rare market where both the whales and the insiders got rinsed

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Yep, today was always the most likely day for him to launch. I agree it's unlikely just given the post frequency. But it's doable for sure. If I held N, I can't imagine holding at 95c.

2

iamhungry

3 months ago

Tokens are usually launched on Friday

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Kanye is always full of surprises, let's never forget that

4

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Gotcha, thanks for explaining

1

curupirAA

3 months ago

18h left

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Exit at 100c, or exit at better price if it's close

0

mk27

3 months ago

How is this market still at 11c?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

no need to lie bro

1

curupirAA

3 months ago

18h left

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Yeah should be at 20c at least, wild

2

mk27

3 months ago

How is this market still at 11c?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

What do you mean by extra yes? Multiple accounts?

2

SpankyMCmuffin

3 months ago

Bought some yes as a hedge, because I’m off to bed. Stay strong gents. See you on the other side!

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Seems nuts to me to hold at 90c, is that really worth the heartache?

1

SpankyMCmuffin

3 months ago

Bought some yes as a hedge, because I’m off to bed. Stay strong gents. See you on the other side!

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Is he ramping up for release? He came back despite saying he'd be gone.

3

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Kanye launched a coins in hearts and souls, you can't beat that 😭

0

Joe44

3 months ago

We will dispute and win on UMA

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

It's not too late to Martingale into N and make it all back. Let's do it 😟

4

Original-Zyn

3 months ago

They told me WAGMI but I'm starting to think maybe we are not all going to make it

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

😭

1

aenews2

3 months ago

Joining Zyn on this journey to zero has been one of the biggest mistakes of my entire prediction market career.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Because it could still happen, never know. Just unlikely obvs.

2

aenews2

3 months ago

Joining Zyn on this journey to zero has been one of the biggest mistakes of my entire prediction market career.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Yes, easily

1

aenews2

3 months ago

Joining Zyn on this journey to zero has been one of the biggest mistakes of my entire prediction market career.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Joining Zyn on this journey to zero has been one of the biggest mistakes of my entire prediction market career.

8

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Good idea, will be getting my dispute ready

2

TrumpDaddy88

3 months ago

To all the 'yes' whales.... Are you guys praying for a UMA Hail Mary? Praying that it settles 50/50 or 'yes' because he is not kanye anymore?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Market believes Kanye is a liar

3

truthteller

3 months ago

Kanye already said he was launching this week, YES should be 60c

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin launch, for the lols and for my pocketbook 🙏

16

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Same! Please have mercy, let me cash out at 30c at least...

5

Dropper11

3 months ago

Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise never to gamble again jesus. I am repentant, I have understood the lesson.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

You're the insider bro, just DM the deats

4

bullishonsol

3 months ago

IMAGINE THIS NIGGA ACTUALLY LAUNCH BEFORE MARCH

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Patience, wait till Friday

0

Car

3 months ago

I was promised a coin.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

You and me both, brother

0

bullishonsol

3 months ago

FROM 100K UP TO ROUND TRIP FUCK MY LIFE

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

aenews2

3 months ago

Please message me @aenews on Discord if you require an emotional support group

6

bullishonsol

3 months ago

IM GONNA KMS FML

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

GGs, see y'all again in 2026 when Kari Lake tries to run unsuccessfully a third time!

1

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Patience, shall resolve today

2

moshito

7 months ago

why hasnt this market resolved?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

;)

1

moshito

7 months ago

why hasnt this market resolved?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

God speed brother

0

Symbolic17

7 months ago

I'm buying more, the RNC seems serious this time about voter fraud

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Why are you emotionally invest in a whackjob winning? Jeez

3

Russet

7 months ago

Only people still holding Lake Win are emotionally invested we know we are going to lose but just cannot bring ourselves to accept it LOL

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Because Lake is a complete trash candidate. The GOP would have been at 54 senate seats if they ran literally anyone else.

4

ProudVirgin

7 months ago

in a MAGA coattails presidential year where a republican actually won the popular vote, Kari Lake is currently UNDERPERFORMING her 48.8% results in maricopa county 2022 by 2.3%

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

It'll be like 3% to the nearest % by the end, lol

0

REEEEEEEEEE

7 months ago

Trump wins by 5.7, Lake loses by 2.2, 7.9 spread between the two - BULLSHIT! MY ASS!

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Yeah, this is probably going to be called by the remaining outlets today or tomorrow.

0

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Who cares about the courts

1

chance99

7 months ago

rules say if MSM calls the race for wohoever then it resolves? Thtats kinds goofy. How about official results after court?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Democrats literally gained seats in the House. Out of all the swing state seats, Republicans only managed to win 1. It's a great year for Trump, but same doesn't apply downballot.

1

Slan

7 months ago

It's really annoying this far left scum gets elected to the Senate in ARIZONA in a RED WAVE year. Fuck. He's basically an open borders Bernie type candidate. That's just ridiculous.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

You do realize... DDHQ called the race, right?

1

TartarianRetard

7 months ago

still says 35.1% for Lake

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

No, they haven't. I traded this across sites.

0

GT510

7 months ago

Can someone explain to me why people think this is over? Kari needs 55% of the remaining votes to win and it has not been called yet.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

You can only convert N into Y in all other brackets, or N in multiple to Y in others + USDC. And yes.

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Alright guys, I'd like to buy another 50K Lake NO, could you help a brother out?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

It isn't a red wave year

0

Slan

7 months ago

It's really annoying this far left scum gets elected to the Senate in ARIZONA in a RED WAVE year. Fuck. He's basically an open borders Bernie type candidate. That's just ridiculous.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

1. It's clearly over, that's why price went to 99c. 2. After price went to 99c, DDHQ called. Now it's really over.

1

GT510

7 months ago

Can someone explain to me why people think this is over? Kari needs 55% of the remaining votes to win and it has not been called yet.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Because this is certain. I don't doubt AP is correct for PA, but eacch decision desk has their own data and DDHQ probably did not reach that critical level of certainty.

0

aenews2

7 months ago

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1855430284428161399

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Called by DDHQ. Will be called by AP, NBC, Fox in the next 2 days, if not this weekend.

1

aenews2

7 months ago

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1855430284428161399

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1855430284428161399

2

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Yeah frankly doesn't matter. But yeah, the analysts were correct to say that remaining were Gallego-favorable. Regardless, this is now far beyond what Lake can overcome. It's over.

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Yeah, officially callable. No joke, I've actually seen enough now. Ruben Gallego (D) has won the AZ Senate seat in the 2024 General Election

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Yeah, officially callable. No joke, I've actually seen enough now. Ruben Gallego (D) has won the AZ Senate seat in the 2024 General Election

2

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

negrisk conversion

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Alright guys, I'd like to buy another 50K Lake NO, could you help a brother out?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

?

1

aenews2

7 months ago

Alright guys, I'd like to buy another 50K Lake NO, could you help a brother out?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Alright guys, I'd like to buy another 50K Lake NO, could you help a brother out?

2

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

🤪

0

Spartan37

7 months ago

Yuma, Yavapai, and Cochise will add up to around 30k gain for Lake if she hits targets. Pima, at this rate, would only cost her 9k. That means she will narrow the gap to 13k. If she wins 50% of Maricopa (50 to 48), she wins.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

No

1

Spartan37

7 months ago

Yuma, Yavapai, and Cochise will add up to around 30k gain for Lake if she hits targets. Pima, at this rate, would only cost her 9k. That means she will narrow the gap to 13k. If she wins 50% of Maricopa (50 to 48), she wins.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

haha ty

0

Spartan37

7 months ago

When Cochise finally comes in, and Yavapai too, suddenly this will be extremely close.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I'm afraid your side is the only one that will be feeling the six paths of pain...

1

biggamefish

7 months ago

Almighty push is coming

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Serious cope

4

Spartan37

7 months ago

When Cochise finally comes in, and Yavapai too, suddenly this will be extremely close.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Yes. Doesn't matter what political leanings we have, it's about making money. I may be a libtard, but I bet big on Florida 12+ and 8+ margin, which people thought unlikely. Made almost 150K. Bet according to the data, not your political beliefs and hopes.

1

aenews2

7 months ago

Where did all the Lake buyers here come from? Are you MAGA money? Curious. Personally, been here since 2021. How about you?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

So why didn't Harris win?

1

REEEEEEEEEE

7 months ago

Election lawyer saying "More than 48K voters in AZ had their votes erased at MCTEC. None of the voters who had their votes "backed out" and "retabulated" can be sure that their votes were counted as originally cast (or even counted at all)." He suspects those votes were retabulated as Gallego votes. AZ GOP put out a notice saying their call centers are being flooded with people calling about canceled ballots - canceled ballots cannot be cured. https://x.com/Ryan_L_Heath/status/1854713842586001518

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Yep, great site. I enjoy trading here =)

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Where did all the Lake buyers here come from? Are you MAGA money? Curious. Personally, been here since 2021. How about you?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

January 2021 to be precise, first trade was on Biden inauguration. As expected, he was inaugurated a few days later.

2

aenews2

7 months ago

Where did all the Lake buyers here come from? Are you MAGA money? Curious. Personally, been here since 2021. How about you?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Where did all the Lake buyers here come from? Are you MAGA money? Curious. Personally, been here since 2021. How about you?

0

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Remember when Trump was at 90c to win the Presidency a few days ago? This is about as certain as that was back then. We're probably going straight to 100 unless Lake gets some semi-decent drops in.

0

Spartan37

7 months ago

I cannot even imagine being dumb enough to buy Gallego yes at 90% right now. Horrible, horrible odds given the outstanding ballots.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Not really. My only queue for Lake is at 2.1c. It's just kinda fun posting here, tbh.

0

aenews2

7 months ago

If you're still buying Lake here, I suggest you put an end to your suffering and move on.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

If you're still buying Lake here, I suggest you put an end to your suffering and move on.

4

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

gg

0

david689314

7 months ago

Breaking another small drop: Arizona - Santa Cruz batch drop: Lake +411 (28.56%) Gallego +954 (66.30%) Batch delta: Gallego +543

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Or rather, they don't favor her significantly enough to matter

0

Amandacoch

7 months ago

I thought the only counties left favored Kari?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

They don't

0

Amandacoch

7 months ago

I thought the only counties left favored Kari?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Are you being serious right now? Clearly this is over 90% Gallego at this point

1

Spartan37

7 months ago

I've chosen to not risk any more than the 2.2k that I've put in. Just in case we get more average drops and it ends up not being enough. Or, Pima comes in strong for Gallego and Maricopa isn't strong enough for Lake. But I'm still saying this is a 60% chance for Lake right now. Holding for now.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

That is a bad drop for Lake lol

2

n/a

7 months ago

NEW Pinal County drop - Lake ~51%, Gallego: ~45% Gallego now only +1.1%

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Nice bro

1

JackBeTrader

7 months ago

that means there are about 124K Election Day drop offs out there to process. Those will go big for Lake you can see it in the turnout party splits

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

lol

0

JackBeTrader

7 months ago

that means there are about 124K Election Day drop offs out there to process. Those will go big for Lake you can see it in the turnout party splits

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

woah!

0

n/a

7 months ago

NEW Pinal County drop - Lake ~51%, Gallego: ~45% Gallego now only +1.1%

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I admit I am retarded for not buying more at 75c

0

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Correct

0

mona.lisa

7 months ago

Lol future dumps are going to be MORE NARROW, not stronger for Lake: https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1855067895224512953

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Remember when we discussed pop vote? I was right!

0

mona.lisa

7 months ago

The liberal Lake supporters keep pointing out my 8k loss. Fake news! I'm a business man. I used the bankruptcy laws of this country to do the right thing for my family, my business and the country. We don't need weak people like Kari Lake in the senate!

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Mb looks like I sold some at 93c, so it's $60K now.

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Trading against MAGAts is like taking candy from a baby

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I've seen enough. Ruben Gallego (D) has won the US Senate seat in Arizona.

4

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I have $100K on Gallego

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Trading against MAGAts is like taking candy from a baby

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Trading against MAGAts is like taking candy from a baby

1

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Maricopium

0

JackBeTrader

7 months ago

Kari got 50% of that Maricopa drop a little less than she needed to maintain previous pacing. However, still positive AND has been outperforming on pretty much every other drop, if other counties keep beating their previous numbers this turns more green again.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I told you so!

0

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I'll be laughing to the bank making 10% on my 100K! Free money =)

1

zero96

7 months ago

https://x.com/nomoresilence80/status/1855053347860185457 52,51% of the remaining vote isnt impossible considering thats pretty much Trump's lead %

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

cope

0

zero96

7 months ago

https://x.com/nomoresilence80/status/1855053347860185457 52,51% of the remaining vote isnt impossible considering thats pretty much Trump's lead %

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

How would Lake win? Gallego is up and should be favored in the remaining ballots.

0

Spartan37

7 months ago

Is there any argument against Lake at this point? Anyone?

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Because it's a bond for Gallego unless you can't math

2

Supeg

7 months ago

Woah Lake actually gained again in the Pima drop. How is this still 15 cents lol.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Amen, brother

0

Spartan37

7 months ago

Last night, I put $1000 into Lake at 5% because I saw it was criminally underrated. Now I might become rich. (That $1000 was just a fraction of how much I made this election)

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Not saying it won't be net R, but no chance the remaining Maricopa will be this red.

0

FUENTES

7 months ago

its over :(

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

common sense

0

FUENTES

7 months ago

its over :(

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

??? Zero chance that it's as red as this drop lol

0

FUENTES

7 months ago

its over :(

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Unless the batches everywhere are all heavy R slanted

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Nice pump folks, but Gallego is almost assuredly the winner. One good batch is not enough to overcome the deficit.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Not ever lol

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Nice pump folks, but Gallego is almost assuredly the winner. One good batch is not enough to overcome the deficit.

Arizona Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Nice pump folks, but Gallego is almost assuredly the winner. One good batch is not enough to overcome the deficit.

0

Nevada Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

nom nom nom

1

Nevada Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Big if true

0

Samuellim

7 months ago

A 4% chance to buy a 0.9% lead that dems have, out of a 7 to 10% remaining pool of votes. I say that's a good small bet. Think about it.

Nevada Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1854329131615539368

1

aenews2

7 months ago

https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1854330478985191610

Nevada Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1854330478985191610

1

Nevada Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Buy more!

0

FBInformationsider

7 months ago

Ok I've seen enough

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Osborn has little to no chance of winning lol

1

Rayse

7 months ago

Why is Osborn crashing? I see no new info from yesterday.

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

Same

0

Rayse

7 months ago

I just hope this gets to 99.9 quickly on election night

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

Why?

0

badatthis

7 months ago

Iowa poll affects Florida. Yeah makes totally sense.

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

I queued 57c, you'll need to fill me. I'm an addict and I can't get enough

1

aenews2

7 months ago

Oh God, im down 50K today it hurts so bad

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

Oh God, im down 50K today it hurts so bad

6

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

I am no longer hungry, got indigestion after Selzer

2

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

😋 I'M STILL HUNGRY

1

aenews2

7 months ago

Feed me guys, I'm hungry

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html

2

Stoop

7 months ago

when is data generally released?

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Yeah I'm not bullish anymore, so sold

0

easyn1

7 months ago

Its pretty warm here today

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

Feed me guys, I'm hungry

1

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

My ERA5-only projection of GISTEMP went up to 136 with the latest data. Not feeling as bullish as earlier this month, but it'll be fairly close even if it doesn't make it.

0

easyn1

7 months ago

Its pretty warm here today

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Lol today was the highest anomaly this year since early February

0

easyn1

7 months ago

Its pretty warm here today

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Naw Ficher has it in the bag, maybe I won't buy more at this price tho

0

Rayse

7 months ago

I really hope we get a neutral poll before the election. Its crazy that there hasn't been one yet.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Seems pretty clear consensus to me

0

n/a

7 months ago

Clearly, the last thing we have atleast in the comment section - is consensus 😂

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

7 months ago

Seriously?

1

enderone

7 months ago

$51,012,404 is the final number. Time to resolve this prediction.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

The rules definitely say consensus of internet retards, good point

1

n/a

7 months ago

Clearly, the last thing we have atleast in the comment section - is consensus 😂

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Also Osborn +1 (RV) though that isn't a big deal

2

aenews2

7 months ago

NYT/Sienna: Fischer +2 (LV)

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Nebraska Senate 🟥 Fischer (inc): 48% 🟨 Osborn: 46%

2

aenews2

7 months ago

NYT/Sienna: Fischer +2 (LV)

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

NYT/Sienna: Fischer +2 (LV)

3

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

NYT/Sienna dropped shit

3

Rayse

7 months ago

I really hope we get a neutral poll before the election. Its crazy that there hasn't been one yet.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Ok, now you next!

1

aenews2

7 months ago

The commit period will last for 24 hours, and the reveal for another 24 hours. Afterwards, the market will resolve to the consensus answer assuming it has met quorum. Meaning, in 45 hours, the market will resolve to Yes and shares can be redeemed.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Sell your shares before they go to zero!

1

aenews2

7 months ago

The commit period will last for 24 hours, and the reveal for another 24 hours. Afterwards, the market will resolve to the consensus answer assuming it has met quorum. Meaning, in 45 hours, the market will resolve to Yes and shares can be redeemed.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

It will never be proposed Yes again, don't worry. Your shares will be redeemable for $0 once the dispute ends.

0

AceBeaker

7 months ago

If this seriously gets proposed as yes another time, this website is a complete scam

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

The commit period will last for 24 hours, and the reveal for another 24 hours. Afterwards, the market will resolve to the consensus answer assuming it has met quorum. Meaning, in 45 hours, the market will resolve to Yes and shares can be redeemed.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

45 hours now before it resolves Yes

0

aenews2

7 months ago

Reminder that market will resolve in 46.4 hours, then we'll be able to redeem our shares

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Lol

1

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

7 months ago

poly will scam this to a yes like they did with the trump coin

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

There's a clear consensus, sorry

2

SirBra

7 months ago

This is frankly ridiculous that Polymarket put a statement out on this when there isn’t a consensus. Damage recon is still being done. There was early reporting that there was bombing in Iraq but they just heard it from over the border. Since then no one has said Iraq was attacked. At the very least the market shouldn’t resolve until the damage recon is done. You literally cannot find anything mentioning that Iraq was struck after the early reports that were later dismissed. Don’t you think all the reports talking about Israel launching from Iraq would contain word about how they hit Iraq as well? Where there are none. This is a terrible precedent to set if they close out the market early before it’s truly determined.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Reminder that market will resolve in 46.4 hours, then we'll be able to redeem our shares

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

*yawn*

0

n/a

7 months ago

If this seriously resolves to "yes" just because a polymarket staff member decided so, I will unironically spend the next week to make sure that more people hear about how rigged and centralized this platform really is. Polymarket staff members should NOT have the right to just add "additional context" and resolve the market themselves, it goes against the entire concept of the platform.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

It will be in 46.4 hours

0

Matter15

7 months ago

I can’t find any information on this ? How is this resolved yes?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

Let's go N bros! /s

0

Shekel

7 months ago

By the way, previous 100K+ Yes holder @aenews2 switched to 70K+ No position. She was also active spreading bullsh*t on Uma discord. This is how it works 🤘

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

what does that mean

0

NERA

7 months ago

this is the craziest "No" Remontada ever in this Platform

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

aenews2

7 months ago

What's happening??

0

YaronL16

7 months ago

Yes holders starting to sell, wake up people its gonna be a no

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Feeling nervous yet, Billy?

2

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

7 months ago

It's just how the values are rounded. You're thinking too hard.

1

TimeTraveler

7 months ago

Jatinder should work on his basic math though, again 0.5M off (22+16.5=38.5) on his own estimate.

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

7 months ago

What?

0

TimeTraveler

7 months ago

Jatinder should work on his basic math though, again 0.5M off (22+16.5=38.5) on his own estimate.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

I'd do 81c

1

aenews2

7 months ago

Where are the Osborn believers? I want MOAR Fischer!

'Venom: The Last Dance' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

7 months ago

Amen

0

Predicto123

7 months ago

We might be cooked fam 💀

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

7 months ago

Where are the Osborn believers? I want MOAR Fischer!

3

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Bet still has plenty of room to end either way at this point

2

aenews2

7 months ago

As always, thanks for donating =)

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

@TheBillyBoy It's a joke, I love you brother =)

2

aenews2

7 months ago

As always, thanks for donating =)

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

@TheBillyBoy Sorry, but I'm drinking your tears, Billy Boy. Your tip is my sell order, possibly the last chance to exit if things continue going downhill 😉

1

aenews2

7 months ago

As always, thanks for donating =)

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Special thanks to Billy!

2

aenews2

7 months ago

As always, thanks for donating =)

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

As always, thanks for donating =)

6

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

7 months ago

The amendment won't pass lol

1

Erick1025

8 months ago

This market will be determined, by how many turn out for the abortion amendment. Those voting for the amendment, are then going to vote for Trump and Vance? Don’t think so.

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

7 months ago

Love these markets!

4

CPU

8 months ago

Temp markets are so much better than shitcoins (im coping)

2024 October hottest on record?

aenews2

8 months ago

🔥🔥🔥

3

Schorle65

8 months ago

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. So far, 15 out of 17 days in October 2024 have been colder than those of October 2023 (which was the hottest ever recorded). The data is based on the daily ERA5 update (global surface air and global sea temperatures), which overall is very close to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Ok

0

aenews2

8 months ago

Well, it's too bad but I guess no one's willing to fill me anymore. Been fun, guys.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Well, it's too bad but I guess no one's willing to fill me anymore. Been fun, guys.

1

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Please buy N and fill me!

1

johnveltk

8 months ago

Osborn at 35% now, up from 30% 2 days ago https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/24

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Because it won't

1

rtels2023

8 months ago

Still not sure why no one outside the campaigns is polling this race. It could determine the Senate majority.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Last poll from her camp was +6, and this one was +7

2

EdgyUsername

8 months ago

What did her past internal polls say (for comparison's sake)?

'Smile 2' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

You're a time traveler, aren't you? Just buy the winning sharres!

2

TimeTraveler

8 months ago

Where's my boi Jatinder at with his estimates, how am I supposed to make decisions without him.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I told you it was resolving soon, jeez. Dumbasses.

0

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Alright, I gave in. I'll do 77c, I guess.

0

Rayse

8 months ago

Haha keep buying more shares I want this to get back down to 15 cents so I can buy in again. Fischer is toast.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Meh just nothing to indicate Osborn has a chance, ignoring the rigged polling

0

EdgyUsername

8 months ago

The Republicans might win, but why are you so sure it's a lock. It looks like it could go either way. You might have thought of something I haven't, however.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Naw, I'll buy at 75ish tho. If y'all are so confident that Fischer is cooked just fill me.

0

Rayse

8 months ago

Haha keep buying more shares I want this to get back down to 15 cents so I can buy in again. Fischer is toast.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

This is a lock, free money

2

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Osborn has no chance to win, imo

0

c4t4

8 months ago

First non-commissioned poll with Osborn up this thing goes 50/50. Get in now.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

im so scared bro!

0

Muromec

8 months ago

if you so confident, why you opening this market and writing here?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

naw bro maybe the UMA whales will side with the N guys for that 50X return ammiright?

0

Ferguson,Turd

8 months ago

High five to all the green share guys. We did it another successfully rigged market!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

How do these N tards expect to win when they can't even get the price to reach 5c?

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

amen

2

Pen-Vitamin-Keys

8 months ago

Return to God

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

aenews2

8 months ago

Oh no I missed that new poll

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Just like the election!

0

SureBet745

8 months ago

No, you can endorse something without being directly involved

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Reading comprehension issues

2

Reaper01

8 months ago

Wtf NO guys why are you buying when Polymarket directly says you this will end YES

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Really?

0

SureBet745

8 months ago

No, you can endorse something without being directly involved

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Yes you get bond back once settled in 2 hours, plus $5 reward

0

mojos

8 months ago

will i get rewarded if i propose resolution on uma?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

He already did bro

1

MichaelBurryd

8 months ago

According to market logic, the future president of America is launching a crypto, couple weeks ago couldnt figure out a QR code

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

If I had only stinkbid, I'd have been able to catch the dip to a few cents when you dumped, too.

0

aenews2

8 months ago

Ggs

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I deeply regret dumping at 45c

2

aenews2

8 months ago

Ggs

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Ggs

1

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Probably will be fixed later today

0

aenews2

8 months ago

Lol Mojo site changed the domestic number from $18,893,642 to $14,117,291, removed international, and global is now the previous domestic. Not that it matters, of course. Dumb site...

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Lol Mojo site changed the domestic number from $18,893,642 to $14,117,291, removed international, and global is now the previous domestic. Not that it matters, of course. Dumb site...

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I mean, that part isn't really up for debate

1

Erfank

8 months ago

How could you believe that they will anounce Trump was involved in this kind of action. It would bring lots of more cases to him by the democrats

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Why isn't naturalnoob buying more?

1

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Probably couple hours, dunno why people are still buying

0

dav1

8 months ago

When will the real 100% accurate number come out? On Tuesyda?

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

It's /s

1

EdgyUsername

8 months ago

link? lol

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Thank you decap

1

Apsalar

8 months ago

everybody say thank you to decap for making the brackets interesting this week

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Surprised Y for 19+ is so low. Usually market is quick to react to Jatinder and Empire updates.

3

PickleRick

8 months ago

https://x.com/EmpireCityBO/status/1845658579606421640

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Yeah that's what I was saying earlier

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

You are going to make a windfall, and you held the whole time, without trading like a madman like me. Much deserved win. With that being said they are doing a call the day before launch, and the team is aware of this market. I still think we resolve YES but I wouldn't be suprised with some last second fuckery/FUD.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I wonder what it tells us when the most vocal Y guy is downsizing

2

NIGGA

8 months ago

Nooo!! Mountaincuck, don’t size down when you’re so confident!!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Such is life 😭

0

HouseAlwaysWins

8 months ago

so you couldnt be the biggest winner so now you decide to compete for biggest loser? 🤣🤣 🤣🤣

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

It ain't over until the fat lady sings 👵 🎤

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

Now that it is over can we enjoy it just one more time???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iP6XpLQM2Cs

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

As the former #1 / #2 Yes Bro I will salute you

2

Myh

8 months ago

https://etherscan.io/token/0xdA5e1988097297dCdc1f90D4dFE7909e847CBeF6 token is already deployed lets wait just for official confirm and aenews2 blowjob

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I will paperhand both sides, going for a record

3

DonaldEnjoyer

8 months ago

Mr. Paperhands over here trying to offset his loss lol

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Good luck holding Y when they say they are launching November 5 or date unknown in the Spaces tomorrow

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Please Lord forgive me for forsaking the wisdom of the Great Mountain Man. Now let us return to 20c for the lols and for my pocketbook.

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

If I still owned Y, I'd definitely be selling. But tbf, I am Mr. Paperhands.

2

PBet

8 months ago

never doubted this to be yes but still uncertain on whether it will be stolen

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Alright Y bros, I've got a nice sell wall for you

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Car is a very reputable commenter 😳

3

DonaldEnjoyer

8 months ago

real?

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Well Mojo updated with 18.3M weekend (est). Nice try, guys.

2

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Nice try bro

0

aLaT

8 months ago

IMPORTED message for all the participants. Let me clue you in to some facts. I know most of you get your numbers from Either (Jatinder from X.com) or (the-numbers.com) but it can be vary Deceiving too Use those numbers Because Box mojo and the-numbers use different sources for Number confirmation. Let me explain While "the-numbers" Use more wide Sourcing method to get numbers. Box mojo On the other hand take information only from the Movie Distributor (i.e Cineverse) "Cineverse" the new Distributor of "Terrifier 3" did not Manage to confirm yet the "preview" numbers of the movie So hence it wasn't included in the numbers dropped by Box mojo. Thus the "3-day opening weekend" Will not include the preview until their Distributor Managed to confirm the numbers of the preview. also note That it happens a lot of time to other movies, thats way Rules say "(which typically includes Thursday's previews)" With emphasis on (typically) Because sometimes it just Happened Just like now.

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Ah yeah I also got the failed trxs

2

TwistedFate

8 months ago

i sold my shares as this market is clearly bugged, i don't want to get fked by a bug or whatever; after making a big market trade i got all the notification and stuff as it worked with "outgoing USDC", also charts have moved, orders disappeared from order book but nothing shoed up in activity neither i got anything, i can't stand it anymore, here proof if someone needs; https://i.gyazo.com/32c87d6738865db1d4c41d1e1d14a031.png https://i.gyazo.com/621afd765d6402e29616a13c531d5006.png

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

aenews2

8 months ago

Wasn't it tied in 2000?

3

MontyWalsh

8 months ago

trump beat biden by 3.4% in 2000. very low probability he wins by 8

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

@Itzcoffeez Previews on Mojo (and all reporting outlets) are rolled into opening day. So Wednesday/Thursday previews are part of Friday's gross. New traders get confused by this every market and donate to the sharps, but that's the way the industry does it.

3

TimeTraveler

8 months ago

These margins are pretty thin: https://x.com/meJat32/status/1845290226417107221

'Terrifier 3' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

Only seems thin because we're dealing with a low grossing film. A 1M difference here is like ~10M difference for a 100M film. 8.2M is the final for Friday. With 5.5M Saturday, that's a 13.8M. Even with a 45% drop on Sunday, it'll still be over 16M for the weekend.

4

TimeTraveler

8 months ago

These margins are pretty thin: https://x.com/meJat32/status/1845290226417107221

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

Do you want my shares bro

0

Clenc

8 months ago

it is 29 at 1:35:23 he said "Bor" and not all the word

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

We cooked?

2

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

Disputed

0

R13

8 months ago

Glover or someone else dispute time is running out

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

Time to take the gloves off Glover, don't let Team Y get away with this one!

2

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

Truth is I didn't watch this rally and didn't count, but it's just dumb money on N

4

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

If people tell me it's a bond, I buy! ez money

1

Eridpnc

8 months ago

hey guys look it's aenews, he spent 20k because he hallucinated an extra border and wants to scam you

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

aenews2

8 months ago

Guess the Border N truthoors have given up, sad

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

True, I can't argue with that!

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

Well you have made so many bad bets lately BUT have made even more Good bets ;)

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Not really, I'm still up 40K for the month. But yeah, it really should have been 60K, at least. Shouldn't have paper-handed.

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

You have been making so many bad bets lately. Such a shame.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Sold it like a chump at 45c, that's the joke

1

Tenebrus7

8 months ago

What happened to your 70k Yes position in that market? If I recall correctly oo? I am always on the wrong side of volatility in this market oo

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Can we go back to 45c for old time's sake?

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

What's the date?

0

eb..

8 months ago

what really counts here is a document called roadmap. in that document, according to the reporters, it is written that a token will be deployed in a certain date, in the next week. so, that is it.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

No one critically thinking believes there's an issue re:involvement of Trump. He's involved. And the idea that past NFT's count is also dumb. Currently, it's just a question of when WLFI deploys a token. Seems likely before election, but who knows really. We shall see, though I guess I'm out of the market for now.

0

Justifax

8 months ago

aenews, car, pence thing the scam will be based on something technical cucky, like trump isn't legally involved. others are betting on common sense reality, like the video he tweeted promoting it. i think common sense will win, and maybe this should be a bit higher, but who knows these days. credibility is at a low point

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Let's see

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

Most likely the frauds will try to dump the price again, if so you'll have the chance to hop back in.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

I know, I regret my sells already

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

Too bad you left, you had a nice sized win coming your way.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

@Le-King Because for them to milk as nuch money off the project as possible, they should aim to launch before the election. Either Trump wins and he's set to no longer be a private citizen, or he loses and the Trump brand becomes far weaker.

1

aenews2

8 months ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Looks like they'll be able to launch by the end of the month if they're aiming for pre-election.

3

aenews2

8 months ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

What does that have to do with token deployment?

5

Tentaclecracy

8 months ago

Aside from past coin conjectures, I find really difficult for world liberty financial to launch their 0 yield non transferable "governance" token before the election, because they aim at issuing it as unregistered security (hence the 1 million min capital for qualified investors) and that exception requires approval from SEC which is controlled by the Democrats. I don't see this happening any time soon, the Democrat majority in SEC will vote No or in the best case slow it down with a fair amount of red tape.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

7

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Sure DM me @aenews_PI on X or @aenews on Discord

0

Lawyered.eth

8 months ago

sigh. happy to hash it out via dm's on X if you want... but I really think you should think this through. That's a lot of dough and I'm virtually positive you are going to lose.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

So when are they going to release then?

0

dimmas

8 months ago

No, Trump definitely won't release a coin in his name before the election, even if Barron's really asked for it. Yesterday, the NYT published an article titled “The ‘Crypto Punks’ Behind Trump's Murky New Business Venture” that two of his crypto partners are former crooks. He won't take any chances when the entire election is decided by a few thousand votes in two or three states.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Sweet, guess I can rebuy the shares I sold

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

I can't believe this, I never thought we'd go out this way... cold and alone waiting for the rescue that never came

9

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Hopefully next week, I want this market over with already

0

Car

8 months ago

What does soon mean

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

"The @WorldLibertyFi token sale is coming soon! Don’t miss out—only those on the whitelist will be able to participate. Link in bio"

1

aenews2

8 months ago

https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1843414417536634902?t=Fo5hrzUubq-tV70-NhArpQ&s=19

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1843414417536634902?t=Fo5hrzUubq-tV70-NhArpQ&s=19

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Did I really derisk at the bottom before this wins? Fek

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

I doubt that is true

0

PolyRig-Fried

8 months ago

Also this dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote doesn not eqal to the total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

ok

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Balz against the Walz rn, hucker down team

11

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

gn

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

It's too bad YouGov wasn't 1 point better for Walz

1

yoonmarketenjoyer

8 months ago

Bros are we getting scammed? Where the FUCK is the poll?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

u the GOAT

0

TooDumbToWin

8 months ago

personally i'm all in bro

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

cause ur a fatass duck dude

0

Secret14thKey

8 months ago

i don't understand, i was informed that yes is an absolute mortal lock. why is no one filling my orders

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Meh. Every reputable poll has been close to even: +2 Vance, +1 Vance, or tied

2

MAGAKen

8 months ago

This is a load of bullcrap. Anyone with two eyes and ears can tell you JD Vance dominated the debate. The immediate post debate poll showed JD Vance won. Every other poll has shown JD Vance won, but I bet you're waiting to cherry pick the one poll full of paint chip eating idiots who says Walz won and you're gonna take off with people's money. I bought JD Vance at 29 cents because I knew it was a bargain, and was familiar with JD Vance's debating style, it was a bargain for me. JD Vance exceeded expectations, NOW PAY UP or I'll be laywering up.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Is this really what the Vance guys are betting on? Look. Y'all may win. But it'll be razer close. This is not the bond you think it is.

1

Balls2theWalz

8 months ago

Of 13 Liberal New York Times columnists, only 2 said Walz won. One of which was “just barely.” All 11 others said Vance won. This is the LIBERAL NEW YORK TIMES. Reuters is not rigging this poll.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Walz won IMO but I'm a LIB. For the purposes of this market, seems like a coin flip.

1

Balls2theWalz

8 months ago

Why would anyone in their right mind bet on Walz. We all know he lost.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

I did, I think

0

Glorp

8 months ago

when is this shit coming out

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

np, put up a bit more if you want

0

watever345

8 months ago

thanks

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Just crapped and I feel better now

0

aenews2

8 months ago

When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Last chance to sell for 0.1c guys. I'm pulling my sell order in an hour.

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽

1

Glorp

8 months ago

when is this shit coming out

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Yep

3

Waifu Hunter

8 months ago

did anyone notice aenews shares from 500k++ yes to 400k yes lol? he is exiting xD

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Yes 99.18% (1,946,401.8) vs. Early Request 0.82% (16,097.04)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Yes 98.67% (1,198,718.02) vs. Early Request 1.33% (16,097.04)

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

You're mixing it up with the other vote. The current results are 98.48% Yes and 1.52% P4.

0

Shayku

8 months ago

It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

97.6% P2 Yes

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Seriously? Dump your bags now. Stop holding worthless shares.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Final resolution is Yes, will be resolved in 23.5 hours

0

n/a

8 months ago

Whatever the final resolution is, it shouldn't be voted by the stakeholders. Makes 0 sense...

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Reveal period is 24 hours

1

aenews2

8 months ago

Gg

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

You should exit before your shares are worth zero.

0

JustGambling - 3165

8 months ago

Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Last chance for dumbos to sell before their shares go to zero

0

aenews2

8 months ago

Gg

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Gg

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Sold out my N, this is dumb

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Because Yes is the correct answer. Who knows how UMA will rule tho

0

MyLossIsYourGain

8 months ago

50Pence and aenews are buying no while their pre-flip comments are still up in UMA discussions.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

No one should be confident, it's very close

2

donky

8 months ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Reporting seems pretty split, and reputable polls have been close to even

2

handiggity

8 months ago

Aka the market prices in a ~35% chance of media bias

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

And of course the Vance people will boast even if Vance wins by 1%

0

donky

8 months ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Can't wait for meltdown here if Walz eeks this out

0

donky

8 months ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Time to tear down the wall

4

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

8 months ago

Yeah 0% chance of hottest

0

ImHereForTheRewards

8 months ago

ERA5 Results are out for September. By their metrics (Daily mean absolute global mean near-surface (2m) air temperature): Sep23=16.377 Sep24=16.174

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

I have zero sell orders, so no I'm not desperate. Hoping to ride to victory cause Vance is a snake oil salesman.

1

DS831228

8 months ago

Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Nice fat block at 20c for y'all

2

aenews2

8 months ago

Feel free to fill me if y'all are so confident it's a 🔒

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Fill me Vancetard 😆

1

DS831228

8 months ago

Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Alright, buy more then?

1

n/a

8 months ago

Ridiculous. Walz was thrashed.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Feel free to fill me if y'all are so confident it's a 🔒

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

I don't understand why people are so confident about this, could land either way

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Ok bro

0

Wayback

8 months ago

i just laughed at Walz buyers, theyre so delusional to think that he won, its crazy

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

💩💩💩

0

Jayson242

8 months ago

Vance definitely won this debate. He was calm, collected, and was very confident. I think both Walz and Vance did pretty well, but Vance was better at answering questions, and walz just looked like he was crying because he was about to crap his pants the whole debate.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Naw this is very close

1

Wayback

8 months ago

I just laughed at Walz buyers, because they're delusional to think that Vance lost.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Will laugh at the Vance buyers if they lose this one

2

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

The salty tears... I can't wait

3

AppleADay

8 months ago

did we watch the same debate?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Vance is great at lying with a straight face, and he easily came off as more confident whereas Walz started off nervous. But VP debate watchers are more politically in tune than the Presidential. So I'd expect Walz to edge this.

5

donky

8 months ago

Anyone saying Walz won is delusional. This was a professional debater vs a school teacher and the teach got schooled. Not close. Those who bet Walz bet because the thought the media would bail them out are in for a big surprise. Only worse beat down was the recent Trump vs Biden.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Why

0

BoeJiden420

8 months ago

-$4,300 lol

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

aenews2

8 months ago

Easy dubs

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

I'm out, peace ✌

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Largest incursion into their territory in TWO DECADES, and multiple tanks have crossed the border along with actual ground troops. This is clearly not the type of special ops the rules are intended to exclude.

2

aenews2

8 months ago

"The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said early Tuesday was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border, the first such incursion by Israel into its northern neighbor’s territory in nearly two decades." - New York Times

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

"The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said early Tuesday was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border, the first such incursion by Israel into its northern neighbor’s territory in nearly two decades." - New York Times

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

You do realize November already resolved Yes, right?

0

NotJustKen

8 months ago

No point arguing. 50pence & aenews2 bought $800k worth of shares in Israel enter lebanon market, and UMA token price rose by 12% in last 24hrs . So I guess this is rigged. Whales can buy whatever they want and vote as per thier choice by stocking the UMA tokens. truth doesnt really matters

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Keep coping

1

JoeBETS

8 months ago

If they said war operations, sure but they specifically stated COMBAT OPERATIONS, acquiring intel is not that PERIOD. If there's no new update and this resolves as YES Polymarket should be ashamed of themselves for falling into peer pressure and mob mentality like that. Disgusting

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

50Pence and I will resolve the market, many are saying this (joke)

0

ANONYMOUS.

8 months ago

Who controls final review?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Some serious copium

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

People are still fading this market?

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Wdym

0

Justifax

8 months ago

Selling as a whale is trying to scam the market. Very sad and unfortunate, but not surprising.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Clear site cookies and log back in first

3

Caligulas.dog

8 months ago

Using mobile? I noticed polymarket mobile page has issues atm. I couldn't sell my shares there

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

Good luck with your argument

0

shinigami.3

8 months ago

Rip yes holders https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

aenews2

8 months ago

"However, Israel has just succeeded in significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities without putting a single troop on the ground in Lebanon — at least for now." - Punchbowl News

0

shinigami.3

8 months ago

Rip yes holders https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

8 months ago

You can average down if you still believe there's a shot. Though... I don't think so.

1

CultArtist

8 months ago

i will ride this to zero

'The Wild Robot' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

thanks for playing

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Welcome back!

1

Hungrytoad

8 months ago

might buy back in .. big

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

Tick tock naturalnoob 🕦

2

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Huobi is a Chinese exchange

1

McLarry

8 months ago

Polymarket didn't even have the decency to say that there would probably be no more announcements. Pathetic, but this way the Chinese can see straight away what kind of business Polymarket is.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

It's alright, that was my bad for sure

0

YatSen

8 months ago

死人妖和孙炒流量，流量过了就烂尾不管了，polymarket第一个国人盘就这样rug了，毫无信用，无视规则。The first Polymarket for Chinese users got rugged like this—zero credibility and completely ignoring the rules. What a joke!

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

You're lucky I left limits up and let you effectively roll back most your trades at 30c.

0

YatSen

8 months ago

死人妖和孙炒流量，流量过了就烂尾不管了，polymarket第一个国人盘就这样rug了，毫无信用，无视规则。The first Polymarket for Chinese users got rugged like this—zero credibility and completely ignoring the rules. What a joke!

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

aenews2

8 months ago

That seems compelling to me, personally

0

mr.ozi

8 months ago

Here's another one: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831512664507314308 For me, this is explicit enough. They are clarifying what they're supporting. It's Harris's official Twitter account.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

I give up, the insiders are too stronk

4

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

So I unfortunately know a thing or two about Justin Sun

0

uxzi

8 months ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Justin Sun is a flaker tho, no? I had all crypto in TRX before I did Polymarket.

0

uxzi

8 months ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Good chance they flake? Even delaying would be enough, if not.

1

uxzi

8 months ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Do the Chinese even use sarcasm to the extent it is used in the West?

1

Fred19999

8 months ago

Because we understand the sarcasm in her tweets, and know the probability of a random person being trans. It's not rocket science.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

How so? I bought at 30c

0

BlackSky123

8 months ago

看来你自己也相当有信心。

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Why are people so confident? Idgi

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

8 months ago

NaturalNoob should just DM me on Discord. Let's negotiate an exit, brother!

2

Mountainman

8 months ago

Love seeing the big "NO" holders starting to unload serious amounts of their shares, some leaving all together. Some were up BIG and now selling close to break even…. Watch the panic set in after their winning positions go underwater with no one to dump on. "Yes" doesn't even need anyone buying to skyrocket, just "NO" unwinding their positions :) Tik Tok ladies and gents, Tik Tok.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

Polymarket is basically determining the market, not UMA

0

Gena🐊

8 months ago

Not high enough for your entry point, but with your UMA lobbying powers I would say your EV is break even

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

aenews2

8 months ago

So what are the odds Huobi actually makes an announcement?

0

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

8 months ago

too hot

1

gkg

8 months ago

Pretty much everywhere, it’s gonna be hot

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

8 months ago

At long last, the streak has been broken! We shall be unburdened by what has been, global warming is over...

2

Will Brazil unban X before October?

aenews2

8 months ago

Oh no

0

'Transformers One' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

8 months ago

ggs

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Maybe this is the last chance for Team N to come out winners 🙏🙏🙏

0

Lawyered.eth

9 months ago

pump it back to 75% let's run it again

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

R.I.P.

1

LaCuriosidad

9 months ago

Apparently, yeah https://imgur.com/a/o72J02U

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

It hurts, I know. But we will get through this brother

1

Hungrytoad

9 months ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

You market sold all your shares at 7c

0

Hungrytoad

9 months ago

can someone explain where my money went ?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

"prediction markets.... get ready to cash your tickets, the answer is YES"

8

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm not the 2nd tho

1

Hungrytoad

9 months ago

aenews2 you took my place 😠 I liked being the number 2 holder

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

hold my hand

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

FEK

0

Mountainman

9 months ago

I’m sorry guys I was completely wrong. I thought that Farokh had a cryptocurrency podcast but I just found out that he is actually a famous Italian chef, and Trump is going onto the X Space to give his top secret lasagna recipe!!!!! SELL OFF YOUR “YES” while you still can!!!! Only 30 minutes left!!!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm sweating bullets!

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

Woah some serious diamond hands in this market

7

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Ok bro, I'm sure I'll lose more in this market than my Top 5 all time losses combined

1

LaCuriosidad

9 months ago

Last chance to sell for YES holders with Trump Coin Derangement Syndrome

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

If any of you retardio N folks decide to dump, I'm keeping some sells open for you. Will pull an hour before the livestream!

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

I don't understand why you are so confident. A lot of the Y holders are sharp traders and would be posting the largest L of their prediction market careers if this goes N.

2

Lawyered.eth

9 months ago

lol I'm a little worried but pretty confident

Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL

aenews2

9 months ago

🐔🐔🐔

3

Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL

aenews2

9 months ago

He's gonna lose, and he knows it

1

RememberAmalek

9 months ago

rekt u scared u gonna burn ur money betting on urself?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Doubt it

0

LaCuriosidad

9 months ago

maybe cause they know something you don't

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Why are people still buying N on this?

2

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

No?

0

Glover

9 months ago

CHINA 5+ THERE WE GO

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I do both. I buy early-middle, buy near the end, and buy start of the next month.

0

BonScott

9 months ago

Do tell no pple why you're so confident so early into September

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

We've managed to make it every single month, even if only by a little. Now's finally the time, probably.

0

BonScott

9 months ago

Do tell no pple why you're so confident so early into September

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Pretty obvious what the rules intend and how the platform would rule

0

uxzi

9 months ago

As do I, specifically because I think the parameters surrounding the proposed resolution are very vague.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well it's a good sign you're on the wrong side. The good news? It's not too late to switch.

0

Whome

9 months ago

I hate being on the opposite side.of your bets.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

aenews2

9 months ago

Fill me naysayers

1

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

close to counting but rules say the cute furry animal with retractible claws

0

CouchWhale

9 months ago

Can I interest any 'fraudulent' buyers in my 'copycat' shares?

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

I have yet to see a single reputable poll where Harris didn't win lol, even Republican pollsters had her up

1

Teumpwillwin

9 months ago

I can’t find a single big online poll where Harris won. This is some rigged shit. Polymarket is scamming people using a specific leftist poll while the title says “according to polls.”

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

This is a very degen market

2

WhiteKing69

9 months ago

If i knew how to get crypto I would bet on this

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

Moreover, Harris should be higher in the first place

2

Dick Cheney

9 months ago

If he has millions can’t he just overwhelm any other market action? We shall see

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

What's the plan, chief?

0

wanyewest69

9 months ago

trump won the debate

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

Harris is up on virtually every single prediction market and gambling site rn

1

Qualitative

9 months ago

Not a trump fan but too many people are trading this as if it's directly dependent on what happened in the debate vs an otm option with 1 dte.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

I did

0

Aldebaran

9 months ago

Put something up

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

aenews2

9 months ago

Where are the Trump fans?

0

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

Thanks!

2

Thevsvsgs

9 months ago

Man your track record is Awesome

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

Hate to say it, but I told you so 😆

4

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

Woah so much liquidity for Trump holders to max buy worthless shares

3

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

Sorry, but we'd RIG it anyways even if she makes a little oopsie, just like we RIGGED the election in 2020 👉

0

0x800977102c70ef82B2bE329585cAFB0AD03AA4c1-1724712090083

9 months ago

easy money your Indian non African candidate will lose

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

That's every festival

0

Remontada

9 months ago

And if the coconut gets cracked?

Who will win the debate according to polls?

aenews2

9 months ago

easy money, orange is getting SQUEEZED tonight

4

September 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Woo hoo! 😃

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It was published like an hour and 14 minutes ago, 11AM ET

0

n/a

9 months ago

How is it possible to close this bet before data was published by NASA ?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I also have a few Y shares there

1

n/a

9 months ago

@aenews2 as long as yes hits on Kalshi I’ll survive lol

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I think it will, but only 87% confident there cause it's more narrow than this one

1

n/a

9 months ago

@aenews2 as long as yes hits on Kalshi I’ll survive lol

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market!

2

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

lolz love you too buddy

1

Eridpnc

9 months ago

Insider AKA Aescam at it again... stop trying to hack NASA GIsstemp we won't be fooled. Let's all chip in and market buy no. Just sold my kidneys, liquidity coming in soon.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

In a surprise to no one, the final is 130. Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market.

8

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Implies hottest in GISTEMP

0

siim

9 months ago

Published a few days ago, and the data has been around, so not breaking news. But still interesting.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

True. Well, I do have multiple accounts in the first place, but most the action is from my main. You have a point. If nothing else tho, I kinda want to reach higher on the leaderboard.

0

raspberry17

9 months ago

hey @aenews2, have you considered betting on these temperature markets from alternate accounts? I figured it would tone down the vitriol from the jealous trolls, make it a bit harder for copycats, and hence maybe more enjoyable to all. Obviously you have done nothing wrong and it's totally OK if you like the current situation

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Post picture with Imgur, definitely don't believe that

2

aenews3

9 months ago

You did not parse the data correctly. I'm getting 119 every time.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Where are you getting your information? The anomaly is roughly 130.

0

aenews3

9 months ago

You should have sold for profit when you had the chance. There will be little to no increase in temperature. It's a Tie.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

There's no mud. It'll likely be hotter in every single database. Won't be remotely close in GISTEMP. Last month was divided, and actually very close.

0

siim

9 months ago

No is absolutely underpriced here. The data is muddy enough that it's pretty clear that no isn't a 1% chance. The whales are selling off their positions incrementally to try to not spook the market, just check the activity tab.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

???

0

Fred19999

9 months ago

FUCK. Just sold my holdings after confirming. Thank you for sharing, I am forever grateful

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Are you finally realizing you're wrong? Well it's been fun.

1

Lowyrok

9 months ago

latest GHCN data shows 128, yikes. Should be fun though

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

We are in ENSO Neutral, not La Nina. And the incoming La Nina is a weak La Nina. I don't understand if you are just trolling or this retarded.

0

aenews3

9 months ago

Ya and what come after is LA NINA !!!!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Agreed. Price should be at 99.9 and it's been stubborn

2

0x330e1ed1f3A7Edfe00D2E02db7b2fb4CE34e77C0-1725898374832

9 months ago

The most mispriced market in the history of polymarket. They will write legends about me.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

El Nino has been over for 3-4 months, not really relevant

0

aenews3

9 months ago

If you mean El Nino is finally over you are correct. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153058/el-nino-exits

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

What conversion are you talking about?

0

analord

9 months ago

just tweaked the numbers of the JRP repository, returns 119 every time. 130 only returns if you don't account for the celsius/fahrenheit conversion in the first few lines

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Looks like the pump is finally over

0

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

When will you stop pumping your bags

1

aenews3

9 months ago

We are going below average folks: Match this chart to NASAs #s. https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2024-09-08.gif

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

111M is pretty auspicious

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Assuming 2023 remains at 119, 2024 needs be at least 120. In reality, it'll be about 130.

0

BabyYoda12

9 months ago

What will the exact number required to be for it to finish as hottest on record?

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Do you... Want more? Always happy to fill you more at 4c. But fair warning that the shares are worthless as I explained in previous thread.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

every time im sad i dont have enough 1.20-1.24 shares, i see aenews is there to help!

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Land-Ocean anomaly on 1951-1980 base period, as posted by NASA/GISTEMP

0

MOA

9 months ago

Can some one explain what this is an increase over? August 2023? July 2024? It’s like children write these things…..

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm here

0

AppleADay

9 months ago

erm where is aenews2

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

because the film was a big success

2

Ania-chan

9 months ago

It is weird that even a est, Fri and Sat have a same number

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

I know you do lol. I guess either you are pumping your bags or you are retarded.

0

aenews3

9 months ago

You're right I suck at Math.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Meh. I'd say 65% above 129, 35% 125-129, 0% everything else

0

joe.night2024

9 months ago

I hope so, but i guess, the probality for under 120 = 20%, between 120-129 = 70%, and above 129 = 10%.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Ignore. It's a troll. Tho you should dump your N fr.

0

efren1983

9 months ago

are you selling now?

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

NOAA uses the same GHCN+ERSST data that GISTEMP uses, and it was only 0.01° hotter. With the market rules at the time, it would have resolved N if NOAA was the resolution source. The reason I bet the way I did is because there was a buffer of 1 due to the downrevision. And indeed, it was incredibly close with GISTEMP landing at 1.39 vs the 1.37 strike in the market. If it had been 2 lower, N would have taken it.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

It's objectively true, why are you saying "wrong"? I'm not doing any calculation, I'm just relaying the actual numbers.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

It was an incredibly close market (like last month). NOAA and Berkeley Earth both reported only 0.01° hotter than the record. Moreover, revisions hurt Y in that market because it was pegged to the value itself not the record. If NOAA had been the resolution source, market would have resolved N on tie due to the 0.01° downrevision in both NOAA and GISTEMP.

1

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

And what is the anomaly in ERA5? That is a 131 anomaly. A tie in ERA5 in my model implies a median of about 127 in GISTEMP. Last year during El Nino, ERA5 kept outpacing GISTEMP. This differential has shrunk to very little the past few months, and we are back to historical normalcy on average.

0

aenews3

9 months ago

Uhhmmm This says he lies: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575974560993287

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I expect an apology once the data releases in a few days

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Ignore the crazy guy pumping in the comments. I was correct about 121 last month as well. I'm just sharing the alpha. This isn't remotely close, so y'all should save your money.

0

aenews2

9 months ago

ae-projection (Final): 130

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Hope not

0

n/a

9 months ago

https://x.com/SimbaSnell/status/1832621503969398890

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Please buy more N 🙏

0

sosuke

9 months ago

Friday 41.5 m and Saturday 41m ? No drop ? When's the last time you seen that happen for a movie no drop from Friday to Saturday

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Good one!

0

YoungGriff

9 months ago

I'm praying for my bags. Please lord forgive me for my greed. Please let the Beetlejuice lovers flee the theatres with terror, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Please take price back to 50

0

sosuke

9 months ago

Bidding 68c on 105m+ based off an early estimation is crazy

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Thanks, keep coping while I win both bets

1

aenews3

9 months ago

you spray and pray like a true larp. Your technical analysis is really top notch.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Beetlejuice is a bond, wdym lol

0

aenews3

9 months ago

Ya I cant wait 3 days because I want to buy more beetlejuice box office lotto tickets. Larp Harder.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

As promised, I have a nice sell stack at 99.3c since I'm running low on cash. I recommend folks with N sell before they go to zero.

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

1. The ERA5 data itself implies very low chance of N. 2. We have more data now, so it's definitive.

1

joe.night2024

9 months ago

Just to be Fair: aenews doesn't lie. He analyses correctly, or at least he really thinks so. And he has good arguments. He may be right. The possibility for Yes is bigger than possibilty for No. But the possibilty for No is bigger than 25%. So No buyer have a 25% chance to win. That means, they take the 25%-chance at the price of 2%-Chance. And that's why i bought No (in this market).

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Jk

1

aenews2

9 months ago

It's a BOND 🔐🔒🔐🔒

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

It's a BOND 🔐🔒🔐🔒

1

Apsalar

9 months ago

say it a third time. i dare you.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Gg... Again?

4

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Made more than 250K last month, try again

0

AiBets

9 months ago

aescams losing (zero predictive ability, he was copying others here) is a good day

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm praying for my bags. Please lord forgive me for my greed. Please let the Beetlejuice lovers swarm the theatres with glee, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

3

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Still have zero sell orders. Will add shortly tho, at 99.3

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

AENEWS wants you to dump your NO shares to get out of his position at 99.9 don't let him out!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Why are you trying to make people lose money?

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

He has YES and No Shares and is trying to walk the price down. Create Doubt. Stick to your gut. Hold till reveal.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I don't even have sell orders lol, tho I will add some soon since I'm still low on cash

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

AENEWS wants you to dump your NO shares to get out of his position at 99.9 don't let him out!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

ae-projection (Final): 130

0

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

LOL. I made 175K last month alone, across accounts, across markets, and across sites.

2

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

you buying at 99 cents isnt profit ya larp.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Pretty well, obviously. I've made 250K off them.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

Already down bigly on September Hottest Month Market I see... How are your models working out for you?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

What a clown

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

3 more days till all your profits go bye bye. Start packing.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

You are a literal retard lol

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

It's a burner your models are trash. Keep buying beatlejuice box off and Kamala Shares you might get lucky.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I think the guy larping is the maniac who spams the comments and owns zero shares.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

Bro you are the biggest larp on PM. You and your idiot TG friends bought all those yes shares. These markets arent "projecting" Jack Shit. I cleared my schedule for Tuesday to watch you lose 400k. You deserve to get whipped out. We all know you are on the wrong side of the trade. MOG.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I see this is landing about where was expected, a bit under the ERA5 anomaly of 131. Slightly overperforming my ERA5-only model.

0

joe.night2024

9 months ago

I don't have enough liquidity. And i am new to this market. And i care only for the end. You are smart. But maybe i see what you don't see.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

estimates are conservative tho

0

05brownboy

9 months ago

there was just to much optimism movie is underperforming the estimates

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

If you disagree with the projection of the margin market, you should buy there and fade 1.30+. Moreover, if you were remotely close to right, it should be +EV to have 2c shares in this market and buy 5c shares of 1.20-1.24 in the margin. For 7c you win if not hottest and win if it is close! You probably won't tho cause you know your shares are worthless.

0

joe.night2024

9 months ago

And i expect every thing except 130 ;) only 3 day remainig ;)

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

No. I said the market is projecting 130. Please re-read.

0

joe.night2024

9 months ago

If you are so sure, that it will be mor than 129, why don't you sell here and buy in the other market?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

While the margin market is projecting 130, real people here are still buying N. Y'all should be buying cheap in the other market if you think you're right.

0

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well yeah, we have had the data since ERSST released on the 3rd. I already went big with 150K+ before that tho, so my modelling and analysis is simply superior.

0

BabyYoda12

9 months ago

even I am super curious. Imagine putting in $272K in a prediction market bet just to make $15K.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Did I bond the wrong bracket? Or wagmi?

1

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Just woke up

1

AllForOne

9 months ago

@aenews2 what is going on bro ?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

More than one account and two markets, have sold and re-bought as well. So probably more like a 30K win, broski

3

BabyYoda12

9 months ago

even I am super curious. Imagine putting in $272K in a prediction market bet just to make $15K.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Historically, the anomalies are close to even, with GISS slightly lower.

1

n/a

9 months ago

@aenews2 I am guessing you are so sure on yes because of historically higher temps from NASA datasets compared to copernicus?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

no matter how many times i smack it, it keeps coming back

1

Dangomil

9 months ago

Anyone know how to swat this mosquito?

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

LOL

4

TimeTraveler

9 months ago

I'm giving 95-105 the best odds currently, this also means that I'm giving 85-95 and 105+ equal odds compared to eachother.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Naw it's not just him. The estimates all align around 44M.

0

TimeTraveler

9 months ago

Also, Warner's and Deadlines's estimation (85-95) is now at 4% because some Indian guy is very good at predicting or something.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Wagmi

0

PickleRick

9 months ago

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1832222409455186311

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

You are delusional

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

Thanks for proving my point.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Because I need cash for other markets

1

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

AE News will say he just wants liquidity to bet other markets but the truth is he doesnt trust his own data. The Real Batman is buying his worthless bags before the reveal!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Bro you don't own any shares

1

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

uhoh the real batman buying AENews Trash YES. Whose gonna tell him!

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

Shall see!

0

joe.night2024

9 months ago

My prediction: August 2024 anomaly will be 119 +/- 7 (112-126). Only 4 days remaining..

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

9 months ago

It's impressive that the entire range is wrong despite the interval size

2

joe.night2024

9 months ago

My prediction: August 2024 anomaly will be 119 +/- 7 (112-126). Only 4 days remaining..

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm sure there will be promo's, but dunno about a regular $5 coming back.

3

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

@joe.night2024 You need to process the ERSST file to calculate

2

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

@joe.night2024 If you Google "ERSST", what you want is the top result which links to NOAA's website.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Previews always count, you are simply wrong. They get rolled into Friday's number (or whatever the opening day is for a particular film).

0

TimeTraveler

9 months ago

It's a movie with a bunch of hardline fans, those tend to go to early screenings, but those hardline fans aren't representative for the general population, and the earnings from the early previews don't count for this bet either.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

@joe.night2024 You'd need to calculate it

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

The differential between GISTEMP and ERA5 that existed last year is gone. At this point, you should basically expect GISS to land on average slightly under the ERA5 anomaly.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

No, I'm taking everything into account there, including historical. You are just incorrect. What I'm saying applies before ERSST, tho. Since we have that now, we are good.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

I'd say judge for yourself

0

n/a

9 months ago

Seems more like $12m previews

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Deadline lowballs

0

n/a

9 months ago

Seems more like $12m previews

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

A tie in ERA5 (131 anomaly) implies GISTEMP would be easily over, lol. 127 +/- 7 in my model. But yeah, we do have more data now.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's not remotely close. You must be messing up on your end.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

Gg?

0

PickleRick

9 months ago

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1831926075477389819?t=NpkfiUj-mxnEqm5_cSB40A&s=19

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I don't want to spoonfeed all the information (though you can probably get the details from past markets). Just know that you're wrong, and you could have gleamed it from ERA5 alone even before ERSST dropped. GISTEMP anomaly should be pretty in line with ERA5.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Correction: Ocean slightly less, land way more!

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

@joe.night2024 NOAA's website

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Where are you seeing that land is even with last year? You're living in an alternate reality, lol

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Because the land is way hotter, it's not rocket science.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

💀 GISTEMP is Land+Ocean, silly

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

" The current CPC/IRI analysis suggests that El Niño conditions will dissipate around Northern Hemisphere Summer in 2024. The current El Niño has weakened to a moderate intensity (after being roughly the 3rd strongest of the last 30 years) and is likely to continue dissipating over the next several months" - Berkley Earth, March 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Surface air is the entire surface. Just as with the past few months, we'd expect the GISTEMP anomaly to be close to the ERA5 anomaly (131). Moreover, we have the data from ERSST now. So it's a done deal.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

GISS is Land+Ocean. So what if the ocean is slightly cooler? You need to look at both, then you'd see it's overall way hotter than last year. Or before ERSST, you could look at ERA5 surface air which captures the entire surface.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Looks like the insiders were right after all

8

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I think you're misreading. I'm saying it's irrelevant to look at only SST. We care about Land+Ocean. And we know roughly where it'll land because ERSST released on the 3rd. Again, I'm just saying this was a near certainty even before we got more data. Evidently, it's entirely dead now.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

"Clear flip happening in july, with 0.1c disparity in august." Yeah that's pretty irrelevant, because GISTEMP is Land+Ocean.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well ERSST releases on the 3rd, so more like I bet 200K or so before that release. The uncertainty is gone at this point. My point tho is that even before that, it was a done deal.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

^ Applies to both of you

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

No, my ERA5 model only takes into account the surface air (t2m). I don't use the SST from Copernicus. If you want to discuss further, hit me up on Discord (aenews), Twitter (aenews_PI), or Reddit (aenews).

1

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Also considering the chance of simple human error (they enter the wrong number and don't update it until after the resolution period for this market closes) or the chance that someone at NASA is aware of this market and attempts to manipulate the number to get 100:1 odds on their money. Crypto based prediction markets haven't been tested in the courts, and it's doubtful that SEC market manipulation laws apply to prediction markets.. so doing something like that could be seen by some unscrupulous actors as a low risk way to make a boat load of cash.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

The mistake you're making with ERA5 is that you're comparing the 131 anomaly to the 131 anomaly last year in 2023. You should be comparing ERA5 to GISTEMP, not ERA5 to ERA5. Same mistake people made last month. My ERA5-only model pegged this at 127 +/- 7 (2σ) when September started. You are clearly not correctly parsing the data.

1

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Also considering the chance of simple human error (they enter the wrong number and don't update it until after the resolution period for this market closes) or the chance that someone at NASA is aware of this market and attempts to manipulate the number to get 100:1 odds on their money. Crypto based prediction markets haven't been tested in the courts, and it's doubtful that SEC market manipulation laws apply to prediction markets.. so doing something like that could be seen by some unscrupulous actors as a low risk way to make a boat load of cash.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Because that is 131 anomaly in ERA5? So of course it implies GISS won't be close. And I'm not buying at 5%. I'm selling! Literally the opposite.

1

WindWalk2

9 months ago

If its 'unambiguously the hottest', then how do you explain ERA5's data? They are showing roughly 1.505 vs. 1.506 (0.001 difference). I know sattelties are a lot less accurate but that seems far from unambigious to me.. I'm sensing some serious overconfidence here.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It doesn't make a difference. It's unambiguously the hottest. "V5" would not change this, given monthly rankings are relative to each other, and given the margin.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

For these reasons and others, buying YES at 98 cents or above is all but guaranteed to be negative EV over the long run.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Lastly, database changes make no difference as the market is relative to all past months. As an aside, August will be the hottest in NOAA and Berkeley Earth, and probably every other dataset.

0

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.

1

WindWalk2

9 months ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Ah yeah, I lost 20K that month betting on N. Was very close. NOAA and Berkeley Earth were only 0.01° over record, too.

1

Lowyrok

9 months ago

for some prespective, march (which won by 18 points) was trading at 50-50 on april 2nd. This market is much, much closer than that and yet N shares at 1.2, CRAZY

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Surface air being roughly the same means GISS probably won't be close lol

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

ERSST v5 anomalies down 16% since 2023 august. Surface air temp relatively the same. Who are the idiots buying yes here?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Wut

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

When you buy at 500k's worth at 93 and sell at 99 for a 600 Dollar profit is not a good trade.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

This is accurate, and the original comment was being dumb and thinking surface air does not cover the sea. In reality, it covers the entire surface and should be compared to land+ocean. Some people were confused and trying to double-count by adding surface air and sea.

0

Lowyrok

9 months ago

Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Where? Link?

0

OmenOfLord

9 months ago

Guys it's leaked. The part 2 questions are leaked, there are insiders on Twitter leaked for us. Don't bet unless you have insiders please

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

I just bought some

0

Nyr11messier - 2170

9 months ago

Is the townhall over yet?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Second half tmrw

0

Nyr11messier - 2170

9 months ago

Is the townhall over yet?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yes, after a brief refractory period

1

Panzwalizka

9 months ago

what is happening? it rises again?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Agree to disagree

5

Jane.Avenue

9 months ago

Should be ruled inconclusive. It was clear in the rules that it would be based on the video/audio that is aired on September 4th 9-10PM.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Out of cash and want to buy other bonds like box office

0

aenews2

9 months ago

Well if anyone wants to sell N shares before they go to zero, I have a sell block at 99.3c / 0.7c

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's guaranteed lol

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

Bro why you so paniced. Low Liquidity and Low Conviction? Maybe don't bet 500k on a dice roll.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well if anyone wants to sell N shares before they go to zero, I have a sell block at 99.3c / 0.7c

0

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Doubt, just rando

3

mango-lassi

9 months ago

Is this true?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Finally someone who can math. Still seems a bit off tho, as I'd project 97% odds even with just ERA5 data. Not sure how you got 9%.

0

Drunken-Mentat

9 months ago

I seriously doubt the no will win: it makes sense as a low-probability bet, particularly as a reinvestment of previous gains in yes. But it was never too probable (August 23 in gistemp was much colder than the era equivalent, and my own reanalysis gave only 9% for the no for aug 24), but now with the land anomaly for 2024 at 1.62 vs 1.38 in 2023 (easy to calculate with gistemp python package), I would say it's really improbable that the land+sea anomaly would be smaller than that of 2023 (unless the gistemp sea anomaly turns out to be unexpectedly small wrt era5). So most probably "yes".

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yeah, correct. This is a straightforward market that resolves according to NASA's published value.

0

raspberry17

9 months ago

Although the whole uma mechanism is sketchy at times, for this market the temperature value is provided by NASA. I don't see how the outcome could be disputed

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Only using ERA5 (was assuming it ends a virtual tie), my ERA-Only estimate a few days ago was 127 +/- 7.

1

raspberry17

9 months ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

What does this market have to do with UMA? It's straightforward and goes by what NASA publishes on their website.

0

PanosMariolis2001

9 months ago

Serious question , if its actually a win for the no holders , can the uma scam us again and somehow the whales win again? No right???

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

If it remains 119, then the anomaly needs be 120 or higher.

2

SudoWin

9 months ago

What should be the number in the NASA source for this to resolve to "Yes"?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

How would this help change last month's temperature?

0

lil-b

9 months ago

Maybe a scientist can help me - I've been up all night with my icemaker in overdrive - I keep making ice and then throwing it outside, figuring that the cold will help cool the Earth. I know its only a tiny bit but it could come down to that. I think I can feel a slight difference when I go outside. When the ice melts, it releases the stored-up cold out into the environment. Is this a sound strategy?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

NOAA and NASA land pretty close to each other most of the time

0

raspberry17

9 months ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

That is definitely wrong

0

X9504

9 months ago

Tracking looks good but is getting soft. Seems like a movie that fans will watch but not the general public. ~3.25m in early showings, ~9m previews looks about a right for a total around 80-85m

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

9 months ago

hi!

0

sosuke

9 months ago

aenews betting betting against me damn

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I love you

1

lil-b

9 months ago

There's kind of an X factor at play here, which I dont think anybody has really considered. I have heard from my sources that The Juice is Loose, which may have an impact. Those who are Beetlejuice fans will know that the hype is definitely causing higher body temperatures. However, if my sources are incorrect and the Juice is, in fact, NOT loose, then admittedly I will have made a giant blunder. Just my 2 cents.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

No. Being roughly tied (and it ended up marginally higher, mind you) implies GISS won't be close

0

raspberry17

9 months ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

The Copernicus data would suggest it won't be close lol

0

raspberry17

9 months ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

🔥🗻 + ❄🌊 = ?

1

raspberry17

9 months ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'm joking, tbc 😆...

0

0xA8422eF2508826A2d08b3aaFC138a1B3474DE305-1723550268028

9 months ago

i thought about this also, but i will take the risk xD

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Think about it guys, would NASA want to let the streak end? We need to keep going through the election!

4

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

...what?

0

lil-b

9 months ago

There's kind of an X factor at play here, which I dont think anybody has really considered. I have heard from my sources that The Juice is Loose, which may have an impact. Those who are Beetlejuice fans will know that the hype is definitely causing higher body temperatures. However, if my sources are incorrect and the Juice is, in fact, NOT loose, then admittedly I will have made a giant blunder. Just my 2 cents.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

maybe buy low, sell high?

5

SLEEPYJOE

9 months ago

Uh ok someones trying to dump 100k shares ... which YES holder is nervous they are on the wrong side of the trade?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It'll resolve to whatever NASA publishes on their site

1

PanosMariolis2001

9 months ago

I'm new to this market , can they side with the whales once again or is it fixed so the no holders can win too?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Nice

0

OmenOfLord

9 months ago

I'm just loading up as time goes. Depositing another 2000 once bank is open in the morning.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

That's not me. You are not very smart, are you.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

We value your insight. I didn't mean to scare you with my comments. But sometimes you gotta get down to there level and punch up. I can see Aenews buying on his BigMike11 burner now panic buying... Stick to the science. I'll take care of the goons.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

nom nom

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

WINDWALKS!!! EAT SHIT AENEWS!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

who are you

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

9 months ago

@AENEWS2 Fly to close to the sun and you're gonna get burned bitch! Hope you brought some SPF Faggot!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's tied or marginally higher in ERA5. That implies GISS will be way higher, no?

0

OmenOfLord

9 months ago

https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1830623631757762652/photo/1

Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

aenews2

9 months ago

This bill is incredibly light and has been watered down. Also this doesn't affect anyone except the largest companies in the space lol

3

Justifax

9 months ago

A simple example of how stupid this bill is. Today, if I use a computer to do a cyber attack the person who made the computer is not liable. Now if I use AI which is 1% better than just using the computer, the AI company is liable. That's tots insane.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

@BabyYoda12 It can be sooner than that date

0

husser

9 months ago

When does they publish the nubmers usually?

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

aenews2

9 months ago

Might be 600M today too

0

Ania-chan

9 months ago

599.X without Labor Day ^^

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

aenews2

9 months ago

Maybe it's cooked bro! But yeah they are ests.

0

Dropper11

9 months ago

yep. How do they already have today's revenue tho

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

aenews2

9 months ago

Blah blah blah

0

Guggs

9 months ago

I think the market is significantly overvaluing 'yes'. All the articles so far have just estimated the domestic gross. Or said it hit 600M based on some estimate. The numbers aren't out yet and there is a very small margin over 600m.

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Irrelevant on the market

1

sosuke

9 months ago

ah yes another rigged market on polymarket and if it isn't rigged from the start, uma and polymarket will solve that

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

See y'all in the next market

0

2024 September hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

We care about the anomaly, not temperature

6

Caveman12

9 months ago

September is almost always colder than August, don’t see how this is Yes

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

aenews2

9 months ago

Who are you?

0

Lkeprfuh

9 months ago

Happened AFTER the deadline: "Russian social media channels claim that in the Moscow district of Kapotnya, where the refinery is located, two explosions were heard. According to residents of Kapotnya and nearby districts, one explosion occurred around 7:30 a.m., followed by the sounds of automatic gunfire and a second explosion approximately 10 minutes later." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-assigned-highest-difficulty-level-after-drone-attack-russian-media/ar-AA1pNeWe

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yeah I should have bought when price was low, might have missed the boat 🚤

0

tsybka

9 months ago

Another scammer, aenews, has appeared on the market... fun times.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

aenews2

9 months ago

I've never even traded this market

1

tsybka

9 months ago

Another scammer, aenews, has appeared on the market... fun times.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well it's pretty precisely tied in ERA5 @joe.night2024

2

diddy

9 months ago

It’s a mistake to bet against aenews, that’s the true weather forecast-er

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Don't let the door hit you on the way out

1

RFKALLDAY

9 months ago

I will be Boycotting Polymarket if this resolves YES. Will move to Blast. Polymarket is the new Opensea.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Well it's very clear market is resolving Y. I suggest N baggies dump their worthless shares while they are still worth something.

1

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Ah I see. Np

1

grape.legend

9 months ago

aenews leaving free money on the table from this supposedly decided market 🤔

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

PM has already intervened to resolve this fairly. Just need to sit tight, and it will resolve in 26 hours.

0

northman

9 months ago

what can we do to get PM to solve this fairly?

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

wdym, I'm at like 250K shares bro

0

grape.legend

9 months ago

aenews leaving free money on the table from this supposedly decided market 🤔

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Maybe you've hit a rate limit. Slow down, buster.

1

Mauz

9 months ago

Why they blocking comments???

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Because we have a finite amount of money

0

Panzwalizka

9 months ago

All Yes holder are no so stupid they can earn only a few USD more then on the begining. So why they want to show you that they are so sure not to close at 0.1 or 0.2?

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

This is great evidence for Yes, thanks!

0

northman

9 months ago

Heres the part in discussion: https://streamable.com/cj7hbx WATCH IT IN 0.5x! TRY TO COUNT THE SYLLABES OF "TEACHER" HE DOESNT SAY IT

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Because people hear the teacher even if you personally don't. Not that surprising.

0

northman

9 months ago

Its simple. The rules state "The resolution source is the video of the interview". He doesn't say teacher in the Video. How is this even a debate? Its clearly no

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

oh god

0

northman

9 months ago

Heres the part in discussion: https://streamable.com/cj7hbx WATCH IT IN 0.5x! TRY TO COUNT THE SYLLABES OF "TEACHER" HE DOESNT SAY IT

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

No, I trust my ears and common sense. I trust CNN. And finally, I trust the clarification.

0

Astronaut

9 months ago

This market is a perfect example of the downside of using a decentralized voting system that allowes influence BY SHAREHOLDERS

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

wdym

0

Astronaut

9 months ago

This market is a perfect example of the downside of using a decentralized voting system that allowes influence BY SHAREHOLDERS

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

You whacks are free to buy more N if you really want, happy to leverage another 100K!

0

northman

9 months ago

It is a FACT that he does NOT say TEACHER! Someone make this viral and get us justice!!!!

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

It is a fact that you need to get your hearing checked

0

northman

9 months ago

It is a FACT that he does NOT say TEACHER! Someone make this viral and get us justice!!!!

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Oh puw-lease, you're making me blush 😳

2

diddy

9 months ago

It’s a mistake to bet against aenews, that’s the true weather forecast-er

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

aenews2

9 months ago

Seems ogre tbh

2

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

Where'd you find a 6th?

0

CansGonzalez

9 months ago

AI actually counted 6... oh well

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

In some countries and jurisdictions, apparently you can count this as 4!

1

AgricultureSecretary

9 months ago

Total: five

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

Welp, guess those folks saying they would dispute were all talk. Probably for the best tho, as they'd have just been burning their money.

5

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

aenews2

9 months ago

How many are we at?

0

n/a

9 months ago

comrade harris doesnt count right?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

You need to do homework in every market you trade, if you want to have an edge

3

oxamo

9 months ago

Unfortunately no. Although not 100% consistent the NASA numbers do correlate with other data sets. Barring some sort of statistical annomoly August will be the hottest. I'm done with these markets because I came here to gamble, not to do homework

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

good one!

1

BlackSky123

9 months ago

Fact: yes holders are more likely to know that "Joyful" is not a compound word, whereas no holders are more likely to believe that it is.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

I think you should schedule a hearing test as soon as possible

1

Kade

9 months ago

just watch CNN interview part 3 at 01:06 subtitles have "Teacher " but he only say "English" skip the "Teacher " ?

What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?

aenews2

9 months ago

Thanks, best stream

0

null.eth

9 months ago

Starting now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yeah for some reason I was getting filled at 99c, maybe people are betting on it not airing in the full interview? Or they just missed the excerpts.

1

minji

9 months ago

interview excerpts have been released and she said both "border" and "inflation"

Pavel Durov released in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

Can we take market back to 97c?

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Naw, it was 2 lower

1

ImHereForTheRewards

9 months ago

@aenews2 As we all recall :-) NASA was higher than ERA5 in July

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

NASA is coming in lower than ERA5. Only month this year it was higher was April.

1

viltalik

9 months ago

NASA has been coming in hotter

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Data is coming in pretty hot

8

viltalik

9 months ago

What do the yesoors know?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Seems hot to me

0

Hussieny

9 months ago

Greetings for you all,, What's your thoughts on this market?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Fair, makes sense

0

ExhaustedBoyBilly

9 months ago

Thanks aenews will buy more in a few days of the data I got are the ones I like,

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Upped my bids, if you want more action

0

ExhaustedBoyBilly

9 months ago

I lost my 50K winning in last month's weather bet..... that's why

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Billy giving up the slack

0

BennyS

9 months ago

Viltalik, you gonna run out of money or?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Correct. It's the same market.

1

nuggetsharambe

9 months ago

prob will resolve no but for the record, haven't seen one argument from a worthwhile source that counters all the sources linked by the yes voters. vibes wins against rules again whatever

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Just cash me out. 0% chance this goes Y after the last votes.

1

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

The rules say it doesn't count. Jewish is considered an "other form".

0

nuggetsharambe

9 months ago

prob will resolve no but for the record, haven't seen one argument from a worthwhile source that counters all the sources linked by the yes voters. vibes wins against rules again whatever

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

aenews2

9 months ago

5.2M, another couple M and it reaches majority. 3.8M and reaches quorum

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

23 hours

0

MrNFT

9 months ago

How long do we wait

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Sell your Y at 0.2c so I can move on with my life, TY

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

The reason I support N is because Bernie endorsement resolved N despite media reporting he endorsed, precisely because of this formal endorsement clause. For consistency, this market must resolve N or one of the resolutions must necessarily be incorrect.

6

n/a

9 months ago

Just to clarify PolyMarket does not care about technicalities with verbiage. If you No sayers were right then China would of won the most gold medals prediction. The IOC recognizes Hong Kong as part of China and list them as so. That prediction clearly worded things by Country and not team. Polymarket did not pay out based on how the rules were written but based off of how the western media publicized things. The media has confirmed and multiple sources have published his endorsement. If that is not true then have them redact that.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

When the world 🌎 needed him most, he vanished

0

BennyS

9 months ago

@junkbonds we need you to take it from here

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yea it's possible, never know!

0

ootharju

9 months ago

Hailey reposted the story with a blue heart and teddy bear so all you Girl consipiracists can cope with buying worthless shares

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

Jack might have a twin named Jill, even if you're right! Unlikely tho, I know..

0

ootharju

9 months ago

Hailey reposted the story with a blue heart and teddy bear so all you Girl consipiracists can cope with buying worthless shares

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

No need to be rude, dude. It's obviously possible. Also obviously very unlikely!

2

braunajb

9 months ago

nahhh I don't think so

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's a joke. But it's possible.

1

braunajb

9 months ago

nope thats not the name

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's not coping. I'm saying too early to resolve, lol. Obviously, it's way more likely a boy! But there is a chance it is a girl. Heck, maybe they had twins and only showed us one of them so far!

2

MineGuyBonds

9 months ago

Sadly this market still cannot be resolved according to the rules. Need an official confirmation that it is a boy.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

Jacqueline Bieber, we are ready!

5

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

Might be Jacqueline and Jack is her nickname. Or could be a girl named Jack, which some parents absolutely do, even if rare.

1

MineGuyBonds

9 months ago

Sadly this market still cannot be resolved according to the rules. Need an official confirmation that it is a boy.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

What does that have to do with this market?

0

Pidor🐓

9 months ago

drop out already resolved. grats on spending $2250 to tie up our money hilary2win

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

It's not a loose technicality. Bernie Sanders endorsement resolved N due to the formal endorsement clause. So either that misresolved, or this would misresolve. One must be wrong.

9

·

Liked by XiJinPing, HsB34sgg and 7 others

raspberry17

9 months ago

I also looked up the definition of formal. It includes: "constituting an official or important situation or occasion". It seems to me that clearly staying that he supports trump, will work for him, and asking his followers in the decisive states to vote for trump is clearly an official endorsement (and therefore, a formal endorsement). His goal is clear, there is no ambiguity. No supporters are arguing on loose technicalities that won't hold, IMHO. But my stake is small and I understand those of you who want to fight this. Hopefully, the people who draft these markets will learn to be more concise

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

@asdf4 Yep, I agree. That's what I was saying.

2

X9504

9 months ago

Can someone link to a statement by RFK or one of his representatives stating that he is voting for or formally endorsing Trump?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

None exists. In fact, his team actually retracted a legal filing today that would have indicated endorsement.

11

·

Liked by XiJinPing, EmpirePend... and 9 others

X9504

9 months ago

Can someone link to a statement by RFK or one of his representatives stating that he is voting for or formally endorsing Trump?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

He did endorse him, but that's a different market

3

yourrapist1776

9 months ago

Not like he literally said he's joining the trump campaign or anything, or just went on stage at a trump rally where trump announced he would be the head of a new government agency. But no, all the credible sources are wrong, RFK himself is wrong, he never endorsed trump and doesn't back him in any way

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

I think what happened is they made a decision for the speech market (which was correct) and then applied it to all endorsement markets without reading them (incorrect for this one).

7

XiJinPing

9 months ago

they fucked up by ignoring their own rules they wrote

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yeah, optimally need to convince Polymarket

0

0xE42c9d2ef

9 months ago

Would not recommend disputing this as polymarket states it will be yes anyway. unless we can change their mind this will be yes unfortunately

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

This one is actually wrong. If this resolves Yes, then that means either this or Bernie misresolved. I don't see any way around that?

0

aenews2

9 months ago

Must fight in UMA server

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

The most economical approach would be to propose Y and dispute. Saves money. If N wins, your shares win anyways.

0

FrankyFourFingers

9 months ago

someone may re-propose this one, unfortunately - you can propose twice

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

Must fight in UMA server

3

hillary2win

9 months ago

what do we do now?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

Speech market is correct, this one and November require formal endorsement which is different. Haley endorsement resolved Yes, so speech should be a Yes. Bernie formal endorsement resolved N. So this should be a N.

6

de5nuts

9 months ago

you should dispute the speech rfk endorsement market first if you're gonna do it

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

If you dispute, you'll need to dispute November as well. Just as a note.

1

hillary2win

9 months ago

At 40 minute mark I will start a dispute and pay the fee. I have almost everything ready. I need you guys to start writing good arguments for why this should resolve as NO. And I have no idea how UMA processes this. Lets be respectful and polite throughout the process and use logic to correctly resolve this market. I believe its sent to a vote for UMA to review manually? Lets see if we can also discuss this on UMAs chats and channels if they require it. Need your help! Lets win this! If i lose the $750 its okay, I just wanted to do the right thing for the smaller betters here as well as myself ofc. Lets WIN! Team NO

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

aenews2

9 months ago

The clarification for this one is objectively incorrect. Bernie Sanders formal endorsement market resolved to No, so either this one must resolve to No or the prior resolution was incorrect. In reality, it seems they issued the same clarification to all endorsement markets without reading the differing rules.

11

·

Liked by EmpirePend..., 432 and 9 others

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

aenews2

9 months ago

He suspended his campaign

1

Darknight

9 months ago

How the hell is this supposed to be an endorsement. I expect an endorsement to be something like” Pres Trump has my vote and support” if he’s still running then it shouldn’t count

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Neither is compound, as -ful and -less are suffixes.

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

The information on UMA is false without any authoritative reference to what comprises a compound word. Mirriam-Webster is an authoritative source for words, including compound words. According to Mirriam-Webster "joyful" is a compound word, like "joyless".

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Have you tried reading the rules for this market? They specifically say "Jewish" does not count as it is another form. They don't consider affixations to be compound. Neither did hopeful count for hope in Obama DNC mention. This isn't a new thing, lol.

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Strawman arguments are not authoritative, however Mirriam-Webster is. Was it you who wrote the false August 23rd "Additional context"? The clarification is clearly factually incorrect. Furthermore, it references the incorrect section of the rules pertaining to compound words.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Affixations aren't considered compound words and are always under the "other forms" that do not count. For that matter, "hopeful" did not count for "hope" in Obama either.

6

Car

9 months ago

can someone explain to me why JOY didnt win like im a 8 year old?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (i.e. "Jewish" would not count").

3

Car

9 months ago

can someone explain to me why JOY didnt win like im a 8 year old?

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

gg guys

5

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

rip to all the poor souls who bonded joy at 99c and are fading Merriam Webster

2

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

aenews2

9 months ago

Cope

1

tomxeth

9 months ago

She has zero aura

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Whew

0

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Wdym? What market are you talking about?

0

yourrapist1776

9 months ago

What is the % chance you pay out my winnings on your scam prediction market site insightprediction.com? Also probably 0% you fucking faggot

# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?

aenews2

9 months ago

I mean I agree. I had 70+ lol. It seemed clearly over 70, I stopped counting. I am kinda curious what it ended up being tho.

0

DECRAPisDUMBandGAY

9 months ago

just make something up, that's what you always do. There were an overwhelming number of mentions.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Seems many people have very different opinions and are confused on what others actually think

4

satoshi sir

9 months ago

People are actually getting arrested while protesting the DNC and no holders be like "meh they were a few blocks away"

# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?

aenews2

9 months ago

What was the final count?

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

@Iverson Yep. And I'm not even saying we didn't have more than a couple today, but there's nothing to indicate more just yet. We'll see how it goes tomorrow and how many CPD reports.

0

Mountainman

9 months ago

15 first night, at least 50-70 last night, more to come tonight, and the grand finale tomorrow night... I think this is a steal at these prices.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

I don't see much news for tonight other than the couple posted

3

Mountainman

9 months ago

15 first night, at least 50-70 last night, more to come tonight, and the grand finale tomorrow night... I think this is a steal at these prices.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Is that 100+?

0

babendums

9 months ago

Theres been atleast 50-70 already. I exited by No position. https://blockclubchicago.org/2024/08/21/72-people-arrested-during-protest-outside-israeli-consulate/

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

9 months ago

Bye 👋

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

The CPD indicated in their press conference that they'd update with more accurate numbers once confirmed. So even if all arrests do in fact count, the number should be less than what that lawyer non-profit claimed.

8

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

I already won, sorry

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

We will see who laughs last 🖤🙂

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

They need to say the Miranda rights, confirm verbally they are protesting for DNC specifically, and then report the arrest went through and not simply detained. Oh and need to count all the wheels on the bus for good measure.

3

DiversifyYoBonds

9 months ago

Can anyone from the "those arrests don't count" group share an example of an arrest that DOES count?

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Can't wait for Team Y to get sweaty hands after realizing they bonded a market that is fairly likely to resolve the other way

3

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

I'd like to sue for copyright infringement

1

aenews2

9 months ago

Woah gopfan2 rlly stealing my mojo

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

9 months ago

Woah gopfan2 rlly stealing my mojo

1

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

@Iverson Meh, we'll see how it goes

0

Mommy

9 months ago

The main group behind the protests at the israeli consolate is called 'behind enemy lines'. They explicitly stated they want to 'shut down the dnc for gaza' and 'make it great like 68' (referring to 1968 dnc protests). Another is samidoun, who were carrying "shut down the dnc for gaza" banners. Some of you guys are lying through your teeth here. these were clear protests against the dnc.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Do you think we'll get more arrests today and tomorrow?

0

Mommy

9 months ago

The main group behind the protests at the israeli consolate is called 'behind enemy lines'. They explicitly stated they want to 'shut down the dnc for gaza' and 'make it great like 68' (referring to 1968 dnc protests). Another is samidoun, who were carrying "shut down the dnc for gaza" banners. Some of you guys are lying through your teeth here. these were clear protests against the dnc.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Huh? He said 55-60, what you smoking?

2

DeucePapi

9 months ago

Chicago Police Chief confirms 75+ mass arrested Day 2 https://youtu.be/MG4FnXjlFUk

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

The whole integrity of the site is in question if this is graded a 'yes'. Just as easy to say! That said, we'll see what happens today and tomorrow re:arrests.

0

0x067F6C8FA38C71f30fA3d1aA72EE4004c027a821-1718211121352

9 months ago

The whole integrity of the site is in question if this is graded a 'no'. Are the people making this decision already betting this side? The protestors arrested outside the Israeli consulate are only effin there because of the DNC. the protestors arrested outside of the arena on Monday night... Who the hell is to say what they were protesting? Maybe just jackasses caught up larping. The whole point of this market was clearly to bet on mass arrests at the DNC, which is what happened last night.

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

9 months ago

Yeah, correct. If you lose dispute, you lose the bond. And to answer the main question, UMA is the decentralized Oracle that handles resolutions and facilitates disputes. However, Polymarket may also at their discretion issue rules clarifications that UMA will generally follow.

5

Bigiorn

9 months ago

So can anyone explain how resolution works and who decides in such edge cases?

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

Is there any confirmation of those numbers? Guess we'll see today.

1

homosexual

10 months ago

The National Lawyers Guild is now putting the number at "more than 70" today, meaning a total of at least 83. https://x.com/NLGChicago/status/1826139648772423996

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

but will they protest again today?

0

homosexual

10 months ago

The National Lawyers Guild is now putting the number at "more than 70" today, meaning a total of at least 83. https://x.com/NLGChicago/status/1826139648772423996

Mass arrests at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

But you need people to get arrested for number to go up

1

homosexual

10 months ago

If we're being safe with the estimates, 65 today and 12 yesterday. It's more than on track for reaching 100 by Thursday.

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

How do you know? @BellumM I don't understand

0

aenews2

10 months ago

What if everyone's inside information about the child being a girl and being a boy are all correct? Maybe they have twins or triplets and we resolve to 50/50 😃

# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?

aenews2

10 months ago

You seem like a s-.... like a guy.

1

ExhaustedBoyBilly

10 months ago

please dispute me

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

I just thought about it, and it's a way for everyone with claims to be right!

0

JeffreyBezos

10 months ago

i knew you were retarded

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

What if everyone's inside information about the child being a girl and being a boy are all correct? Maybe they have twins or triplets and we resolve to 50/50 😃

0

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

Umm Idgi

0

jamesclove

10 months ago

Trying to get a lower cost on GIRL

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

dumbos

0

TrumpGonnaPump

10 months ago

i am so confused as to what's happening

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

you are buying boy at 70-80c dude

0

jamesclove

10 months ago

I got insider info that it's a girl

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

Whatever you are trading on!

0

jamesclove

10 months ago

what inside info?

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

aenews2

10 months ago

Would be funny if the "inside info" were real, but market resolves 50/50 'cause not disclosed

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

aenews2

10 months ago

Should I buy more?

5

BennyS

10 months ago

Aenews bought yes?

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

aenews2

10 months ago

I'm sleepy aenews rn, when will this end?

1

homosexual

10 months ago

folks can someone nudge sleepy joe to mention the apartheid regime?

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

That market is done, not related

0

zubinbets

10 months ago

Is this a Scam? Whats going on here:.... why is this bet allowed to happen when this polymarket bet has closed: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination?tid=1724082564506

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

I don't know what you mean

0

p0wer

10 months ago

How fucked up is this bet?? "democratic nominee" was supposed to close on 21st, so why the fuck did you close it if there's still a chance she won't get nominated?? FUCK YOU POLYMARKET YOU FUCKING FUCK!!!!!!!

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

wut?

0

p0wer

10 months ago

How fucked up is this bet?? "democratic nominee" was supposed to close on 21st, so why the fuck did you close it if there's still a chance she won't get nominated?? FUCK YOU POLYMARKET YOU FUCKING FUCK!!!!!!!

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

aenews2

10 months ago

No, that's not correct. This simply confirms the prior vote that more reporting is wanted by UMA.

0

PokerBrat

10 months ago

So the Assasination of Hamas Leader wont be a factor in this market anymore as per the vote, do I understand that correctly?

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

aenews2

10 months ago

They didn't vote for No. They voted that it was too early to close, punting decision to future.

1

just.some.guy

10 months ago

I'm new; could some kind soul help me out on how disputes work? Cuz I thought 'UMA' already voted on whether Haniyeh met the criteria to close the mkt and they voted for no like 70-30, or something. Since nothing's changed since the first vote, how could the second vote go the other way? I mean, it's the same voters, isn't it? Thanks for any info.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

aenews2

10 months ago

"However, it was a covert / mossad action, not a military action." So a bomb exploding isn't a use of force? Big if true, must be a form of economic sanction!

0

Justifax

10 months ago

It's self evident at this point that Israel killed Haniyeh. They wouldn't subject themselves and the entire world to the level of fear and potential cataclysmic war if they did not. However, it was a covert / mossad action, not a military action. We do not need or want assasination markets.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

aenews2

10 months ago

You should post in UMA. Voters are voting on this as we speak.

0

Oreophilic

10 months ago

"For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory"

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Maybe, I guess

0

BennyS

10 months ago

Since some bettors are tailing you (and gopfan), selling and rebuying consistently might not be a bad idea.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

but even gopfan needs a coat?

1

BennyS

10 months ago

Maybe they needed to buy a coat? It's going to be kind of cold out on Tuesday

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Why is everyone selling?

1

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

-___-

0

BennyS

10 months ago

Oh shoot, I just remembered that the Copernicus data is not reliable..

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

The Polymarket Alpha group?

0

n/a

10 months ago

Does anyone have the TG link? I somehow left by accident

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

Problem is that there was at least one non-compound usage of "fire" anyways.

1

herald

10 months ago

"Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market." Irrespective of context, fire (meaning to dismiss) and fire (meaning to ignite) are two different words albeit with the same spelling. The rules clearly imply that "the word" in the above statement refers to fire (meaning to dismiss). This brings us to the following statement: "Compound words will count as long as 'Fire' or 'Fired' is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee." Fired up and fire up are phrasal verbs, which are compound words. This is clear based on the definition of phrasal verbs and the classification of phrasal verbs. To support this, Oxford dictionary lists "fired up" as a compound verb. While other sources on this are less clear, the fact that fire up is a phrasal verb is undoubtable, which are accordingly classified as compound words.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

I mean. There's no argument at all if he said it separately lol

1

PoLOLitics

10 months ago

I am in the camp that fire will count because he specifically said "fire" aside from when he said "fired-up" but I'm along for the ride.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.

0

BuckMySalls

10 months ago

Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word !! and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.!!

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

Note this only applies if the word is actually compound

0

herald

10 months ago

how to submit dispute?

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

Compound words will count as long as Fire or Fired is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.

0

JonJonesMMA

10 months ago

Please dispute it. He literally said “fired-up” twice in a different context and according to all dictionaries that’s a compound word!

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not just some Democrat. The VP lol, Tim Walz

0

n/a

10 months ago

that some democrat wants to give tampons on male bathrooms

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

He said it

2

StevenBonnell

10 months ago

wait when did he say maga? did i miss it?

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

aenews2

10 months ago

RIP my 100 shares of N on a few brackets, long live my 550 shares of tampon

6

Who will speak at the DNC?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah I don't see how it could possibly not count, especially when DNC statement says he is a speaker at the caucus and council meetings, and said meetings are explictly on the DNC schedule.

2

mr.ozi

10 months ago

The convention happens across two venues, the primary one (United Center) and a secondary one (McCornick). The rules define that it needs to be a speech, not whether it needs to happen at the primary venue.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

10 months ago

Exciting times ahead!

1

sosuke

10 months ago

insiders back at it again with another market

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

aenews2

10 months ago

gg, thanks for playing

4

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

aenews2

10 months ago

-__-

0

HerbAlex

10 months ago

https://triunetimes.org/exit-poll-shows-don-samuels-leading-ilhan-omar-in-minnesotas-5th-congressional-district/

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

aenews2

10 months ago

Doesn't make a difference

1

DeucePapi

10 months ago

Isn't Minnesota an open primary where Republicans can vote in Democrat races?

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

The hottest streak refuses to end! NASA won't let it...

0

Will143

10 months ago

the climate is out of control

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I've retired, sorry. Ask aenews3 instead.

1

7153649820

10 months ago

Waiting for aenews to make a bet so I can copy....

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Facts, they need the global "warming" narrative to continue!

0

JamesNaysium

10 months ago

it won't be. but they'll definitely claim it was.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Guess folks realized the rig is in from NASA 🌞🌎

3

aenews2

10 months ago

July was 77c after it happened, and August is already that price. Whew 🔥🔥🔥

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

July was 77c after it happened, and August is already that price. Whew 🔥🔥🔥

0

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Ayyy

0

SELL-YES-BUY-NO

10 months ago

welcome to the new comment section everyone

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@Resonant That is not how it works

0

0x6Fd73D35D35c4a54e0f66796FcF11D1edB85Db26-1721750436928

10 months ago

nasa said its tied? but resolved to yes? but rules say it should resolve to no?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah and also, Team Yes literally posted the results of that analysis here including the 121 estimate. Team N simply believed their analysis was better and did not trust Team Y who gave them the answer.

0

BM5II5KJN2

10 months ago

@BlueSky123 Hmm, how is it a scam that some people somehow know the function they are using. Its the same as the fact that you can't reverse engineering an injective function per definition. Additionally if you find a function that gives you similar results based in historic data you first of all never know if it's actually the correct function and they could also make changes to the function weights etc. even if you had a good model nobody would have 80% confidence in the result. The chance that this is not insider trading is lower than 5% imo. Since this is a non regulated and 'scammy' website you obviously can't do shit other than not bet ever again on these markets

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

The climate nerds bought before August even started, they bought before we got more data on the 5th, and they kept buying up to official release. There was no inside trading, just much better modelling for most of the market history, and better parsing of NASA data for the last few days.

1

BM5II5KJN2

10 months ago

They should make a new market if this was insider trading and rigged. YES or YES should be the options

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

ty ty

1

BlackSky123

10 months ago

Congrats to the yes bettors - I put $18 on no as a lotto. Figured I would lose it, but thought it was worth the price. Congrats to y'all once again.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

thanks!

1

factman

10 months ago

Congrats aenews2

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

June was revised upwards by 4, and July is the hottest on record by 2. It's over, and 2024 is the hottest year on record. 0% chance otherwise.

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

climate deniers btfo

1

mag

10 months ago

Y’all hear about global warming?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

It updated 2 hours back. You are cached, check again in Incognito, different browser, or different device.

1

raspberry17

10 months ago

The table I see says 121 for June, nothing yet for July. Anyway, all you are likely to accomplish is to keep the winners from their cash for about 5 days. And maybe win a little reward for the correct appeal, IDK

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Thank you @TheDrachma

0

idfkanything

10 months ago

Wild ride. Chalking the $20 loss up to a learning experience. I’ve paid more for coffee. Appreciate the mostly cordial and candid back and forth. Looking forward to august. Cheers!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Incorrect tho. Using just ERA5, odds were already 50% before July even ended. Overall odds with more data and databases were maybe 60-65% before NOAA released, and 80%+ after they released. Was 95%+ by yesterday.

0

n/a

10 months ago

Your regression analysis was based only on ERA5. At the same time, however, JRA3Q data and NOAA data also came out, which even suggested with a larger margin that July 2024 would not be the warmest. In addition, the blog post by Nick Stokes, which also suggested that it would not be the warmest month. I don't think we were unlucky, the yes holders didn't speculate on their luck, that can probably be explained differently.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

No. They are saying it's within the MoE. But currently, July 2024 is the hottest on record.

0

0x6Fd73D35D35c4a54e0f66796FcF11D1edB85Db26-1721750436928

10 months ago

nasa said its tied? but resolved to yes? but rules say it should resolve to no?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Same! Cheers

4

idfkanything

10 months ago

Wild ride. Chalking the $20 loss up to a learning experience. I’ve paid more for coffee. Appreciate the mostly cordial and candid back and forth. Looking forward to august. Cheers!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Because it's marginal

1

sosuke

10 months ago

nasa climate on twitter keeps repeating its a tie while putting 121 is all you need to know about insider trading

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@lakki More data came out lol. I'm talking about before July ended. Already bought a ton at 25-40c before we got more data.

1

sosuke

10 months ago

now that the result is up and it's a yes, we now know all the yes holders talking shit with confidence even though other websites showed evidence for no, are insiders

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Basically, Copernicus was way hotter than GISTEMP last year. So it was expected that the anomaly would be similar this year. On Copernicus, the anomaly was 123 this year.

1

sosuke

10 months ago

now that the result is up and it's a yes, we now know all the yes holders talking shit with confidence even though other websites showed evidence for no, are insiders

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@shouldntbhere I realized that people might buy N based on Copericus being colder than last year, almost 3 weeks back: https://i.imgur.com/7s7alAz.png

2

sosuke

10 months ago

now that the result is up and it's a yes, we now know all the yes holders talking shit with confidence even though other websites showed evidence for no, are insiders

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Or that people misinterpreted Copernicus data

1

sosuke

10 months ago

now that the result is up and it's a yes, we now know all the yes holders talking shit with confidence even though other websites showed evidence for no, are insiders

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Copernicus data suggested coinflip. I called this like 3 weeks ago, lol: https://imgur.com/7s7alAz

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

But, but, but, the copernicus data was lower!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

ohhh the guy who posted the graph and pastebin?

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

It would be funny, if he wasn't encouraging others to buy. I feel bad for them

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

The problem is that they have no model

2

Justifax

10 months ago

A lot of people are commenting for No - have you backtested your approach? Look a prior months and make sure your model works.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Which one?

1

moviesera92

10 months ago

Whatever you say, the one guy who is manipluting the prices and making all these comments might as well be doing this stupid stuff but is certainly funny.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

On or before the dates on release page: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html

1

Josebetandcourt

10 months ago

Anyone know when NASA typically posts?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yes was the right side even before that!

1

Apsalar

10 months ago

You're buying YES because you decoded and reverse engineered NASA's model and then plugged in the entirely of this months' data. I'm buying YES because I trust aenews to do that for me. We are not the same.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Darn, was hoping no one would find out I'm good friends with Gavin Schmidt, but I guess you figured it out. Congrats! 🎉

0

n/a

10 months ago

@aenews2: Are you following best practices when it comes to money laundering, or are you hoping that no one looks too closely?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Nice 1 share bro

4

JeffreyBezos

10 months ago

hello I am the Owner of NASA back again after my last update. I just wanted to let you all know I checked the records again and it is still going to be settle at NO. you are all welcome

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Is that N or Y

0

n/a

10 months ago

I've never seen a situation where the self described "smart money" deserved to lose so richly as on this market.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I literally called this almost 3 weeks ago lol: https://i.imgur.com/7s7alAz.png

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

Never seen such an iq imbalance between yes and no holders in any market on this site as there is on this one

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah amazing how this site is an infinite money generator

5

n/a

10 months ago

By the way, anews2 and bama124 have bought 480000 shares in the last 24 hours without the price moving upwards. Amazing, isn't it? Have you ever seen anything like it?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

This is probably the most stubborn market I've ever traded

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

classic 89/89 market

1

Observing

10 months ago

So while the 'no' holders are comfortable holding even though the current odds are against them, the 'yes' holders are holding their breath, can't sleep at night, and waiting on 89c to exit? Maybe that tells you something.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

“Things are going to continue to get worse because we haven’t stopped doing the thing that’s making them worse,” said Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who wasn’t part of the report. Schmidt noted that different methodologies or calculations could produce slightly different results, including that July may have even continued the streak. The primary takeaway, he said: “Even if the record-breaking streak comes to an end, the forces that are pushing the temperatures higher, they’re not stopping.

2

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

The top N holder has a -1.3 Million P/L

0

Wellmaybe

10 months ago

The fact that top 5 Yes holders are all in 50k+ profit and top 5 No holders are all in loss is astonishing

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Big Mike / Biden ticket

2

BigMike11

10 months ago

First July will be the hottest, and then #BigMIke will be coronated at the DNC. Dump your no & Kamala bags now.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

"No is undervalued considering it's a No" excellent reasoning!

0

JonJonesMMA

10 months ago

"No" is easily undervalued here considering that least year's July seems to have been the hottest.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

some say it is the second hottest

9

·

Liked by factman, BigMike11 and 7 others

cryptuschrist

10 months ago

This is the hottest comment section on Polymarket.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Maybe everyone is collectively making the same mistakes and we were looking at the wrong numbers all along!

2

larnzius.schmarnzius

10 months ago

my guess, nobody actually did the math and we are all just gambling degenerates

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I ain't no denier. This is the hottest July on record =)

2

SmartG

10 months ago

immediately after Copernicus press release there are climate change deniers saying it's all fake lol, hope people research into the bet and have more awareness on it

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I shared what I know in the comments.

0

FranciscoJoseEliasNavarro

10 months ago

The Y guys are scared af 🤣

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Ok, we'll see in a day or two. Or maybe next week.

0

TheDrachma

10 months ago

maybe if you are transparent with your method I can have something itelligent to say. If not, idk bro vibe it out

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I'm not sure if I'll be able to sleep tonight. I know I gots this, but it's still a lot of money...

2

FranciscoJoseEliasNavarro

10 months ago

The Y guys are scared af 🤣

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Do you think I should pull my buy orders? When I ran it this morning, I got 143 for 2023 and 2024 tho...

0

TheDrachma

10 months ago

Running the GISTEMP programme from steps 0 to 3 (just land station data) and using the most current data available: ghcnm.tavg.v4.0.1.20240805.qcf.dat, ghcnm.tavg.v4.0.1.20240805.qcf.inv, I find that July 2023 is hotter than July 2024.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Mortgage your home and buy more #notfinancialadvice

2

BennyS

10 months ago

I ran out of more money to buy "No". It's frustrating to see the shares go on discount after I fully leveraged.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Oh @aenews silly me. No 2.

0

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah, of course. Feel free to add me on Discord. I have the same username.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah, of course. Feel free to add me on Discord. I have the same username.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not great returns for 5 months, but hottest year is essentially a lock. I'll look into and trade August hottest after this market. Politics rn is pretty spicy, good opportunities there especially if you follow news closely.

1

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Feel free to buy more N

0

cooker

10 months ago

The true odds are probably the other way around. At best a 50/50 conflip

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Gotcha. Yeah the anomaly is ~121 right now by my estimate. I'd say less than 1% chance it goes below and 10% it ties. So 90% we win.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Why are you filling me

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah but NASA wants to keep the sweatytrain going. We can't break this streak, must own the Rethuglicans. We ain't Europe.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Don't know the answer, but it should be higher than last year.

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

So according to the largest YES holder, land is a TIE. aenews2: "I get 1.43 for 2024 Land and 1.43 for 2023 Land" I also got TIE for my land calculations using NASA's python code and ghcnm.v4.0.1.20240805. I am still looking into how to convert noaa.ersst.v5 into SBBX.ERSSTv5. Being able to do that will give the answer to this market. However, TheDrachma shared some very clean code (https://pastebin.com/si5mF3aj) to calculate averages directly from noaa.ersst.v5.nc: Average SST for July 2023: 18.90°C Average SST for July 2024: 18.87°C So according to the same data that NASA is going to be using, the sea is a NO. (Or a TIE depending on how they round). Land TIE + Sea NO = $0.17 NO shares? Go ahead and build your own super advanced models, but the bet resolves on NASA code and that's where I'll be keeping my focus.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Aren't you still 23K net Y?

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

I now stand to make more if No wins. I'm officially team faggot!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Sit tight and buckle up. We're almost there.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

We won by all accounts, all measures, barring a big surprise.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

No idea which way this will flip which is probably why I shouldn't have bet. But this comment section is fascinating for the amount of bullshit people are posting in order to improve their position.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Please guys, stop giving me more shares. I'm tired of taking your money...

0

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

It's a 90% coinflip, bro

0

AllForOne

10 months ago

Look at the answers. It looks like that nothing is decided yet. This market is just a coinflip

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Probably

0

FranciscoJoseEliasNavarro

10 months ago

Wait... Actually, is it free money?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@oxamo Yeah, I think so. The N folks would have to get very lucky, but it's narrowly possible.

0

bendover

10 months ago

for fun, what do you thinks the odds would be, to bet it lands on 119?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

10%?

0

bendover

10 months ago

for fun, what do you thinks the odds would be, to bet it lands on 119?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah August looks like it'll be another interesting month to model, see you there!

3

FOMOs-retardoo

10 months ago

I sold some of the shares. Enough so that there was a stoploss at all. In the event that the market resolved as a NO, what else did I lose but the knowledge and skills I had just gained? I spent a lot of time on it, but I had a great time. Btw. guess it will end up above 119, but I could be wrong ;) see you in the next markets

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Does that mean I made a mistake?

2

gopfanfan

10 months ago

So according to the largest YES holder, land is a TIE. aenews2: "I get 1.43 for 2024 Land and 1.43 for 2023 Land" I also got TIE for my land calculations using NASA's python code and ghcnm.v4.0.1.20240805. I am still looking into how to convert noaa.ersst.v5 into SBBX.ERSSTv5. Being able to do that will give the answer to this market. However, TheDrachma shared some very clean code (https://pastebin.com/si5mF3aj) to calculate averages directly from noaa.ersst.v5.nc: Average SST for July 2023: 18.90°C Average SST for July 2024: 18.87°C So according to the same data that NASA is going to be using, the sea is a NO. (Or a TIE depending on how they round). Land TIE + Sea NO = $0.17 NO shares? Go ahead and build your own super advanced models, but the bet resolves on NASA code and that's where I'll be keeping my focus.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

They'll come out when NASA interns press the button

0

Inverse-Bet-Wins

10 months ago

Are the results coming out tomorrow?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I want to win 🏆 big and go down in history. If I sell, has to be 88c+.

1

pengstromjr

10 months ago

@aenews2, I'm kind of curious why your still in this market, why not take your wins and gamble in a less risky market with such profits? Especially with such a volatile and up in the air market?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Maybe, I will have to retire from prediction markets if I lose this bet lol

1

Lyapunov

10 months ago

Highly regarded Yessers, did you really think this pump and dump through? Who do you think will buy your Yes bags at 87c when you can even produce a decent fake news link?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

oh no!

5

nononom

10 months ago

"Note: If 2024 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher." Thank fucking god

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

woah, very nice

0

SmartG

10 months ago

this is a reliable scientist running models with GHCN+ERSST data, he calls a virtual tie but favors 24 July higher. New data is revised down from yesterday, but still it's closer to 120 than 119. We may still have one or two days of data to see.

2024 August hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

aenews just sold all his shares for 60c, bet accordingly

4

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

What forum?

0

Superque

10 months ago

This link was shared in a forum where groups from various universities are analyzing the impact of temperature along with the distance of the orbits. I'm here to shed some light since I see that everyone is looking out for their own interests depending on what they have invested. I'm going to provide objective data. On August 4th, we already had the GISS data available, as usual, these are not final data and have been changing as the beacons have been synthesized and grouped, which is why many models take a few days to provide their final data along with their reports. The data we are currently handling in the research groups range between 117 and 119, very close, almost identical to those of Era5 (other times there are small differences). This range of numbers is due to what I mentioned earlier. The first 14 days of July were colder than those of July 2023, which has significantly influenced the results, even though some parts of the Earth have exceeded their maximum temperatures. In water temperature, we found a deviation of 0.38. I hope that this discussion has excited or sparked curiosity about the world of meteorology, and we hope to see you in some forum where we will be happy to support you. Best regards.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I've given away a mountain of alpha in the past 2 days. Honestly, probably should not have done that. At some point, I gotta call it. The models are secret sauce worked hard to refine. Put a lot of time into it after March fiasco. Anyways, you can shoot me a DM on Discord. I may give you something at least.

1

Gdubb47

10 months ago

I just can’t shake the feeling that despite this backend analysis purported by some users, there simply weren’t enough days to counteract how cool the beginning of the month was relatively. Like you can just look at the graph?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

lol yeah I meant land not SST oops. Well I haven't really calculated what SST by itself is tbh, only land.

0

TheDrachma

10 months ago

Also, if you are just calculating land temp differences, and you are getting less than 0.01 C difference; you still need to factor in sea surface temp. I haven't done land but SST is looking like 0.04 in favor of NO. Merging these two needs the GISTEMP programme to work, but I'm still struggling on being able to integrate the partially updated temp files to run. But it's still not even close to the current market odds.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

As expected from a Rethuglican

2

0x-JayBee

10 months ago

@gopfan you are all over the place lol

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

GISS can be lower than Copernicus and still hotter than last year.

1

n/a

10 months ago

Copernicus says no. Climate science is already subject to such scrutiny, you think they will post different results? Then the boomers on facebook will say "these scientists can't even get their story straight".

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I get 1.43 for 2024 Land SST and 1.43 for 2023 Land SST. And they've remained the same for last three days of GHCN updates.

0

TheDrachma

10 months ago

these are based on the sea surface data that go into the index used to resolve the market. I have not caclulated the July 2024 values for land-based weather stations. I am struggling with the available source code for GISTEMP because many stations are dropped when using the most recently updated land based data. If others have been able to run this programme please share.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Looks like market agrees

0

caesar

10 months ago

Finally can replicate the NASA index results and it's bad news for me :(

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah I said ERA5 = coinflip. It's not the only database you can look at tho, odds seemed better when putting it all together. The reason I keep saying ERA5 is because it's one of the main ones I look at, and everyone in the market keeps referencing it and saying that means 2024 isn't hottest. So I'm responding to that.

0

Gdubb47

10 months ago

I just can’t shake the feeling that despite this backend analysis purported by some users, there simply weren’t enough days to counteract how cool the beginning of the month was relatively. Like you can just look at the graph?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Has everything to do with what you said lol because you're misinterpreting ERA5.

0

Gdubb47

10 months ago

I just can’t shake the feeling that despite this backend analysis purported by some users, there simply weren’t enough days to counteract how cool the beginning of the month was relatively. Like you can just look at the graph?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah, no. ERA5 analysis by itself always suggested a coin flip. Because it won't be as different from GISTEMP compared to last year.

0

Gdubb47

10 months ago

I just can’t shake the feeling that despite this backend analysis purported by some users, there simply weren’t enough days to counteract how cool the beginning of the month was relatively. Like you can just look at the graph?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

If your results do not match the report exactly, you have not gotten it fully working yet. Mine is working, and I'm using the latest data. We have maybe 1-3 more updates before this is finalized.

0

CNMLGB

10 months ago

Again it's the same, the result is stable

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Ah I see what you're doing, it's a double subtraction issue. You're using the files from last report, so if your code is working then you'll reproduce the webpage results exactly with zero differences. Like this: https://i.imgur.com/K1POWUK.png

0

CNMLGB

10 months ago

Again it's the same, the result is stable

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

July 2024 is currently 121 with latest run today.

1

mango-lassi

10 months ago

Can July '23 data be modified to 118 during this release? I guess that's the only scenario where Yes might win

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

That's because June was revised upwards. Not sure what you mean about reliability.

0

CNMLGB

10 months ago

Ran the NASA's python code with default data for June, the number for June is 126 instead of 121. Defintely not reliable and still a coinflip

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

another one bites the dust, welp

0

AppleADay

10 months ago

airplane sold, you guys scared me. see you next gamble

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not really. This only really affects the last few days once ERSST drops. All the epic trading here before yesterday was done based on people using their own models. And Poly, Kalshi, and PredictIt have done GISTEMP and NOAA hottest month markets for many, many years. This is just code linked on the homepage.

0

FOMOs-retardoo

10 months ago

Wondering, how many on YES here based on very high YES on "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?" market and reports of hottest days in measurement.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

But yeah I imagine they must have a process of doing it on the back-end.

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

It just seems like something that should be available somewhere for download. It shouldn't have to be something we reverse engineer. Like, is the official copy just sitting on some NASA laptop somewhere?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

If it is, I don't know about it

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

It just seems like something that should be available somewhere for download. It shouldn't have to be something we reverse engineer. Like, is the official copy just sitting on some NASA laptop somewhere?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Err well that's not good lol

1

AppleADay

10 months ago

too bad youre on the wrong side of history bucko!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Also since ERSST released 2 days late, trading up until yesterday was just based on everyone using their models. At the end of the day, looks like Team Y just modelled better.

0

tacotownz

10 months ago

this has actually been a pretty epic market for how niche it is

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

cause past months they also moved it up, folks who traded previous markets know it already

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

When is the index expected to post?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

This is where they post the release dates, but's on or before: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html They usually post earlier.

0

Sleijffers

10 months ago

When is the index expected to post?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not gonna just give it to you, but if you look at the directory there is some code to do the reverse. That might lead you in the right direction.

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

Where is NASA's code to convert the ".nc" files at https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.ersst.v5/ into the "SBBX.ERSSTv5" file at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/pub/gistemp/"

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

My guess would be end of this week, maybe Thursday/Friday. If not, then Monday/Tuesday

1

Sleijffers

10 months ago

When is the index expected to post?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@tacotownz lol yeah, obviously there's a small chance they win if they get rlly lucky, but I'm sharing the accurate data as of today. And it's obviously true based on the multiple other guys who already leaked it or traded it like random, vanadium, and dank. Lead a horse to water, indeed.

4

FOMOs-retardoo

10 months ago

Wondering, how many on YES here based on very high YES on "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?" market and reports of hottest days in measurement.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I don't just think. I know. That's why the Vanadium guy sniped and took market to 97c. Looks like that was right after ERSST updated on NOAA website. The guy with random in his name also leaked this in comments below, that N is burning their money. In any case, I'm posting because I'd prefer cashing out at fair odds.

3

AppleADay

10 months ago

thinking many of the YES voters made this mistake LOL free money for us

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah just need to add the updated ERSST data from NOAA and add it to the GISTEMP ERSST. Actually someone posted about it here I think a month or two ago? But I guess no one understood what he meant. I figured it out eventually. Note tho I bet big BEFORE ERSST was out. So I predicted this correctly beforehand.

3

FOMOs-retardoo

10 months ago

Wondering, how many on YES here based on very high YES on "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?" market and reports of hottest days in measurement.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well cat's out of the bag, so I might as well explain. Before the month is over, ERA5 and other databases are great. N folks have been misinterpreting ERA by not looking at how ERA5 and GISTEMP are correlated. ERSST dropped an update yesterday, so now you can actually just calculate the value directly using NASA's code. It's 121 vs last year's 119. For the record, ERA5 is 123 this year. Usually the anomalies are pretty similar (historically avg of 1 difference), but last year ERA5 was way hotter than GISTEMP. This seems to be what confused the N people who are comparing ERA5 to ERA5 and not comparing ERA5 to GISTEMP. Anyways, now we have NASA's own data showing 121. That's why the "insider" took market to 97c yesterday. There are no insiders. He was just running the code on GISTEMP homepage.

8

AppleADay

10 months ago

thinking many of the YES voters made this mistake LOL free money for us

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

ty, I'm doing better now

1

raspberry17

10 months ago

Shit, I thought you meant a metaphorical ER given your position in this market! Hope you're OK and will recover soon!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I... wasn't kidding. I'm fine now, but that hurt like a bitch

0

aenews2

10 months ago

I'm in the ER rn

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yes, and FTR Copernicus implies greater than 40% chance of hottest even before considering other datasets.

1

CouchWhale

10 months ago

he has 218k shares. i think he knows about the Copernicus data.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

That it's hot

0

0x32688B3b59312fcFc7ad8fAD64c4a5Ea24D96C13-1720981086792

10 months ago

What do the yes guys know?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I'm in the ER rn

4

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I'll share in a couple days, probs

0

TheDrachma

10 months ago

Again yes peeps, I’d love to see your transparent methods and results!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah this is irrelevant

0

0x03b08DF58990478765ACe29f7DD3D58a49c1215B-1720014453941

10 months ago

From Japan: https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Japan_sees_hottest_July_since_records_began_999.html

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

alright bro, now go propose all the nomination markets. oh wait you won't because you'd get disputed on them and lose!

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

The democratic party officially nominated it's candidate today at 6pm, after kamala won enough delegates in the virtual roll call. Every single official source has stated this to be true

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

For anyone who wants to exit, I have a nice sell stack at 89c. Will keep it open for the next 12 hours or so.

0

aenews2

10 months ago

Guess Team N has run out of money. Just let it happen, we're going to 90c and then 100c!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Guess Team N has run out of money. Just let it happen, we're going to 90c and then 100c!

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Good luck 👍🏽

0

vote.fun

10 months ago

market closes when the Democratic Party officially nominates its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. (some time tm)

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Im queued at 69c if you want more N at 31c, chief

0

BennyS

10 months ago

What is the market reacting to?

Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday?

aenews2

10 months ago

1 Hour left

1

Makaveli

10 months ago

does anyone know what time zone polymarket uses? will this end on EST or pacific time?

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Looks like you'll lose lol

0

Laura

10 months ago

Ok well, it looks like they're not even going to bother putting out a statement telling us what everyone knows to be true, so tomorrow it is. I JUST WANT THIS TO BE OVER OMG 😭😭😭

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

ERA5 data is pretty hot, implies higher than 40% of Y

0

BennyS

10 months ago

Does Yes have a case besides insider trading? Share your perspectives.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

No one is an insider, that was always a crackpot theory from people who lose in these markets. No one is larping as an insider, a few are joking about it because it's an inside joke at this point.

1

MrRat

10 months ago

Convinced people are just LARPing as insiders, you would think the nerds at NASA would have something better to do than gamble their money. I'm only here because I am bored and having nothing better to do.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Same, I should probably start trading there

1

raspberry17

10 months ago

Regardless of the end result, just wanna say that I have enjoyed this market and its comments a lot! Much more exciting than the politics markets, and far fewer trolls! Thank you all for the good time, and looking fwd to the August market

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Thanks, can we take it back to 90?

0

temporaryname

10 months ago

ggs to the yes. you won

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PI have always used GISTEMP or NOAA. Both which release after 1-3 weeks. For that matter, almost none of the major reporting agencies are immediate (NOAA, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, HADCRUT).

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

I feel like these markets would be better resolved by Copernicus because they release their data continuously. NASA waiting for like 2 weeks after the month is over makes this more of a gambling market than a prediction market.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Glad you've seen the light, itys

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

I am sorry I deceived you all, but I am the insider. It's yes. It's over.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I'd wait until at least one of the nomination markets is settled and resolved before proposing. No biggie, just another 2 hours.

0

Laura

10 months ago

Alright guys, I'm quite happy to put through the proposal once the DNC announces they've officially nominated her. Do we want to wait until she accepts the nomination (I'm assuming the same day)? Either way, it will all be time stamped so no need to be reckless in rushing it through.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

oh yeah i know that, just blanked on the abbreviation

0

fineptune

10 months ago

Pity I'm out of cash to buy more N.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

My ERA5 model only takes into account surface air. That already includes the entire globe. Didn't look at ERA5 sea. What is LOTI?

0

fineptune

10 months ago

Pity I'm out of cash to buy more N.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

"Shapiro covers up the sexual harassment and murder of young women for his friends" just sounds like such a damning attack line

1

arius

10 months ago

Sexual Harassment Josh has kickstarted a wave of doomposting among Democrats and attacks from a newly euphoric right. Everyone on the left is praying it's not him, while the Republicans, believe me, they are having fun with him!

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

That only makes sense if you think no chance VP announcement happens today. Could be true at this point.

1

Laura

10 months ago

Ty. I'm glad you didn't lose it all!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

No I think odds are higher, obvs. But just saying I don't understand why he says definitely N when ERA5 implies it is very likely (40%+).

0

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not over yet

1

MalikNabers

10 months ago

Congrats to no holders. Lost a few hundred in this market. Y’all played it well. Gg

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah I meant coinflip based only on ERA5. My ERA5-only model said greater than 40% chance of hottest.

0

fineptune

10 months ago

Pity I'm out of cash to buy more N.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I mean I got my MS in astronomy

0

TheNoobBeaver

10 months ago

https://twitter.com/25_cycle/status/1820151708770529392

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

tbh I did not even check JRA-3Q this month, surprised it's 12 under

0

TheNoobBeaver

10 months ago

https://twitter.com/25_cycle/status/1820151708770529392

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

dunno why y'all were burning all ur cash on a coinflip

1

fineptune

10 months ago

Pity I'm out of cash to buy more N.

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

real odds are 99% imo

0

Wisdomtime

10 months ago

95% according to latest data -- https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Maybe you're looking at the wrong data cause my ERA5 calcs say 40% chance of hottest

0

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

What makes you say that @Iverson

0

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Guess I'm getting zero sleep for the next few days or week

1

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!

2

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

i mean it would suck, but I was already up 300K this year, no biggie really

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

Either v-for-vanadium is an insider and you win & he goes to prison or he's just gambling and you got blown out chasing steam

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

why is N going up

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

I refuse to flip and be on the same side as you

2

Laura

10 months ago

BREAKING: aenews2 begins the sell off! (Although it’s never too late to flip!)

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

March was not wrong. It was very close (and both NOAA and Berkeley Earth were only 0.01 hotter!). But yes, basically the same reasons for March apply here as well.

0

fineptune

10 months ago

Maybe you compare between June and July’s anomaly of ERA5, which are about the same, then concluded NASA’s won’t be lower than June’s anomaly, 121. This assosiation you did in March ended up wrong. Are you repeating the same reasoning?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Probably will soon

0

andybeshear

10 months ago

so... anyone start looking at august?

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

10 months ago

But he didn't emerge victorious

0

n/a

10 months ago

those who correctly predicted that maduro will emerge victorious deserve to get payed. Those who rely on polling data to argue someone else is the winner, predicted absolutely nothing as the polling was known before the election. We waited a few days just in case it gets overturned. Well, it didnt.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I dunno. ERA5 points to it being a close race.

0

JeffreyBezos

10 months ago

it's obviously no. Every single piece of data points to no, and not one single piece of data points to yes. The market is just yes becuase the yes people have more money. It's not manipulation it's just stupidity. If you have money bet no and enjoy the free money

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Bruh, that doesn't mean I won't sweat a 100K+ share position lol! And usually the market is wrapped up by the 3rd or 4th. The fact that it hasn't does make me anxious. But yes, I still believe I will win.

0

temporaryname

10 months ago

i know you are not scared, you are trolling about being scared. I know you bet your beliefs.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

👌🏾

1

Laura

10 months ago

What if we’ve been arguing all this time over semantics and he formally endorses at the final hour 😱😱😱

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Lol should buy more N, in that case

1

Iverson

10 months ago

Just put in another limit order. Seems to be a pretty remote chance Bernie formally endorses her in the next 24 hours. This should be closer to 5% Yes now.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I bet my beliefs

0

temporaryname

10 months ago

ure a troll. 100%

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

What matters is the liquidity not the volume. After all, if price is wrong on any of them, you can correct it.

0

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

None of those other markets have any volume and should be disregarded

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

10 months ago

Did you actually?

0

Car

10 months ago

Oops misclick

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I added back an order if you want more. I have calmed down and feel zen.

1

gopfanfan

10 months ago

Are you willing to show your math on Copernicus being "fine"? Because Copernicus shows 16.90°C and it needs to be 16.96°C to beat last year.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah maybe in a couple days

0

gopfanfan

10 months ago

Are you willing to show your math on Copernicus being "fine"? Because Copernicus shows 16.90°C and it needs to be 16.96°C to beat last year.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Because Copernicus data is just fine. Implies maybe 40% chance. It's concerning that new accounts are swooping in with large orders.

3

gopfanfan

10 months ago

Why would you be scared now and not after all the Copernicus data came out?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

ngl I'm kinda scared, pulled my bids for now

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

when the world needed him most, he vanished

0

CPU

10 months ago

where is dank when you need him

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Is that Team N or Team Y?

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

The worst archetype of people on the site are the ones who made out huge on biden dropping early/kamala getting the nom and now just degenerate gamble on everything thinking they are Nostradamus

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

NASA won't let this streak end...

0

MrRat

10 months ago

I'm scared fellow NO bros, what do the YES bros know?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

It literally is in prediction markets. See the top traders!

0

ootharju

10 months ago

Past performance is not an indicator of future perfomance

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

I want moar shares

1

Apsalar

10 months ago

you know aenews is sweating it when he resorts to arguing in the comments

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

They usually strike by now, oddly radio silent this month

1

BenCM

10 months ago

Still a week to go.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Guys, remember the last time when there was an obvious favorite candidate and slowly everyone issued statements against them or endorsed another person? Yeah I forget what happened there..

1

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Oh they're sweating. They're sweating hard.

3

GoblinMilk

10 months ago

lmaoing at shapiro bagholders being completely silent in the comments

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

DM

0

AnEggplant

10 months ago

It also sounds bad when people say "All Republicans are pedophiles"

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Keep buying N guys, I double dog dare you! As a Bernie Bro, I believe in my guy to set the record straight.

4

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Regardless of the veracity, can we agree it sounds bad when people say "Shapiro covers up sexual harassment and MURDER of women!"

1

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Irrelevant. Folks have tried that argument in court many times the past few years, and it has never worked. Disputes determine validity of proposals at time of proposal. Does not matter if it was not proposed until a minute, hour, day, or weeks after rules being satisfied.

0

Iverson

10 months ago

Yes holders can already submit this as resolved if they believe Bernie already endorsed. Clearly you don't believe he has

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

I don't think I said I would dispute. I said that it will definitely be disputed. And it will be.

0

Laura

10 months ago

Yes, but aenews picked them up and has already said they will dispute. I would advise caution when dealing with aenews.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Feel free, I ain't deleting. Fair to say my stance has evolved over time.

0

vote.fun

10 months ago

take some screen shots pls, out rn. hell prob delete

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

He definitely endorsed (See Haley). He definitely explicitly endorsed. But formal endorsement is arguable, higher bar that may or may not have been met. I think AOC resolved with a statement fairly similar to Bernie's. So I'm not sure what we are considering "formal endorsement". We won't have a prolonged fight over this anyways. Bernie likely will just endorse more strongly before official nomination, or if not, then Polymarket will clarify when disputed and save us time disagreeing.

1

yourrapist1776

10 months ago

Support doesn't equal formal endorsement. Bernie has made that clear himself many times over.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

There's no "scam" angle. If this goes to dispute, Polymarket will probably clarify and it won't even be technically decided by UMA.

1

vote.fun

10 months ago

yeah really hard to disagree. bernie has been so obvious about his stance. Sad ae is like this. People will try to scam wherever they can

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Agreed, encourage folks on both sides to join the process if and when it kicks off: https://discord.com/invite/uma

0

Laura

10 months ago

For the no holders, I predict that this will be disputed even without a formal endorsement by Bernie. Please take some time to familiarise yourself with the dispute process and join us on the UMA Discord server. Just search Google for the link.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Looks like the insiders are on vacation this month

1

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Buy more

2

Laura

10 months ago

I literally just bought another 1000 shares

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I don't understand how the Y people are diamond handing at this price when interviews have yet to finish. I agree y'all will most likely win, but jeez.

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Air temperature is everything globally. Air is air whether over land or sea.

1

Fud

10 months ago

The copernicus data you're looking is surface temperature only. The NASA data that is the data source used for determining this market is land-ocean data. It includes more than just surface temps, but that full data set is not available until around mid August.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Would be really annoying. Does that mean he pulled a fast one over me in March? Was hoping to make it all back this month...

5

bendover

10 months ago

if im right on the No and what he is doing. those following him on the yes side is gonna get creamed

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Good times, I lost 20K that month

6

Lyapunov

10 months ago

@Gopfan are you planning to pull a last minute flip like you did back in March? Buying No for 60c sell at 30c, and then buy Yes :))) Check it out https://polymarket.com/event/will-2024-have-the-hottest-march-on-record/will-2024-have-the-hottest-march-on-record?tid=1722640641333

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

It is indeed genuine stupidity. It may well be Shapiro, but this news means nothing.

1

Republican

10 months ago

idk buying the news on this Philly story seems stupid

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I don't understand what crack the Y folks are smoking...

3

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Damn you're right

0

zyncet

10 months ago

Progs4Harris was fake... Account suspended by X.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Lfgo!

0

fundamentalmisunderstanding

10 months ago

Looks like Bernie will formally endorse on Monday 8PM EST https://x.com/Progs4Harris/status/1819479936886833657

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Looks like they are currently unavailable to pick up the phone. I hear they are in mourning.

3

Wook-Capital-Fund-I

10 months ago

@Laura and @wetard - As the unofficial spokespeople for all "No" bag holders, we respect your service and hope you guide us towards a winning resolution.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Gg?

3

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Jeez this market just keeps pumping 10c for no reason, amazing

3

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

"[Vereb] confronted and threatened me that evening leaving me weeping and in shock standing alone in a parking lot,"

0

aenews2

10 months ago

"You are going to continue to be nothing by the time Josh and I get done with you"

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

"You are going to continue to be nothing by the time Josh and I get done with you"

1

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

He obviously endorsed. Formal endorsement is arguable, but there's no incentive to propose rather than buy shares. People have argued what you're saying time and time again in court (for years). It has never won as an argument. Proposals are judged by validity when proposed, not by "oh it wasn't proposed last week". That is irrelevant.

0

vote.fun

10 months ago

if you think hes endorsed already, youve lost all credibility to argue yes by not proposing it yet.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Disagree. Probably depends on VP as well. And this will be argued even if nothing further happens.

0

Laura

10 months ago

Nah I think he's set himself up really well to support her in defeating Trump while not associating himself with the big donor class influencing the DNC, drowning out the working American.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

aenews2

10 months ago

Axios: "The Israeli Mossad assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh by detonating an explosive device planted in advance in his bedroom at the Iranian government official residence in Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the issue confirmed to Axios."

2

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

I still think Bernie will issue another stronger endorsement before Harris becomes the nominee.

3

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

No I'm saying if he believes what he's saying, should spend 100K proposing all the nominee markets. He won't. Reality is that anyone who tries will get disputed and lose them all.

0

Laura

10 months ago

My best interpretation of that part for the 'no' side is that the voting is the process of officially nominating the candidate, and through that process she has received enough votes to become the official candidate.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Woah! Big news, man. Now try taking 100K to propose the nominee markets. Looks like free money!

0

Iverson

10 months ago

I believe this is now resolved. The Democratic Party has officially through its delegate polling nominated Kamala. On Monday she will officially ACCEPT the nomination. The Democratic Party though has already officially nominated her.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Us Y folks just chilling

0

Eridpnc

10 months ago

Man I think no shares are negative EV just because you have to watch every Bernie interview that must be torture

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Lolz good point

0

Eridpnc

10 months ago

Man I think no shares are negative EV just because you have to watch every Bernie interview that must be torture

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well yes, which was always the case lol

0

Laura

10 months ago

Bleh. She's secured the votes, but the DNC chair has said she won't officially be the nominee until next week.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1819424186797846726

0

diogenes

10 months ago

This says she is the official nominee now? https://twitter.com/HarrisWarRoom/status/1819422054439137314

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Weird. Maybe we're doing something differently? My ERA5 model says it's possible.

0

nononom

10 months ago

out of curiosity if you use Copernicus data, what leads to you believe this can resolve as "Yes"? I've tried numerous stuff but everything point towards no

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Shit!

1

Lyapunov

10 months ago

Yes voters who are actually doing regression analysis, don't forget to bin your outputs, as you might have noticed results are announced with 2 digit precision. Meaning NASA will turn all values between [1.185 - 1.194] to 1.19

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Do it, might be free money!

1

babybeluga

10 months ago

someone triple dog dare me to dump another 10k into josh shap

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

(Don't take seriously)

0

babybeluga

10 months ago

what's good shapiro holders, where are we going to celebrate after we claim our winnings?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

The morgue since apparently Shapiro covered up a murder case: https://gavinfish.com/blog/2024/07/28/opinion-anti-semites-shouldnt-stop-josh-shapiro-from-getting-the-veep-nod-but-a-murder-cover-up-should-23583/?feed_id=45&_unique_id=66a6173706622

1

babybeluga

10 months ago

what's good shapiro holders, where are we going to celebrate after we claim our winnings?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I dl the data from the Copernicus website and then crunch numbers

0

tomn

10 months ago

Quick question - how are you doing your monthly ERA5 calculations and then comparing to GISTEMP at the same base years?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Shapiro, obvs. Looks the 67c block was filled. I have the rest on offer at 65c.

0

ThrivingLeverage

10 months ago

Yeah but i can't see that. For what candidate ? What you're saying doesn't make sense, it can't be for any Y

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I put the offer up on the book now

0

ThrivingLeverage

10 months ago

Any Y ?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Alright, new deal. I'm willing to cash Y folks out at 67c in size (beyond what's in book).

0

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Many of them cancelled events lol

0

barubas

10 months ago

Shapiro cancelling his campaign implies redundancy. Its a wrap folks

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well you better be right because I'm tailing you. On vacation and haven't had much time to look at this in detail.

0

gopfan

10 months ago

@temporaryname why would I ever share my thoughts? It’s like showing cards playing a poker game

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Heyy am I invited? 😥

2

friendlyguyy

10 months ago

Almost there Shapiro fam. A beach vacation is waiting for us all.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Should happen over the weekend, definitely would if she ultimately selects him.

0

barubas

10 months ago

Shapiro cancelling his campaign implies redundancy. Its a wrap folks

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Also consistent with him knowing he's the frontrunner. I very much doubt he knows he has been selected when the vetting process has yet to complete.

0

barubas

10 months ago

Shapiro cancelling his campaign implies redundancy. Its a wrap folks

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I mean, this is why I bought 55K shares N

0

babybeluga

10 months ago

literally no one cares about this

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

https://x.com/leahmcelrath/status/1818712013444726941?t=qE-rhdAlLaTd_A0OugAFxA&s=19

1

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I'm negotiating. If anyone agrees, I'd put up a huge wall on the book.

0

MurkKellyVP

10 months ago

spread is too big right?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

If any Y holders are feeling weak in the knees, I'd cash you out 55K shares at 53c Y (47c N).

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yes

0

Laura

10 months ago

It’s 6pm ET/Bernie time and still no formal endorsement 😢 Voting commences at 9am ET tomorrow. It will all be over soon.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Np

1

BenCM

10 months ago

Thank you for providing liquidity

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Well you might be right. Probably will pull most of my orders in a couple hours.

0

monkeyboy77

10 months ago

How long does the data take to update after the end of the month?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yeah this is what Ive been saying

2

HouseSlytherin

10 months ago

If Shapiro is nominated the "helping to cover up sexual assault charges" isn't going away

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Sometimes you just gotta go big and hope your model is better

1

monkeyboy77

10 months ago

How long does the data take to update after the end of the month?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yes, can trade until market is resolved

3

raspberry17

10 months ago

What happens between July 31 and Aug 14, when the official data is released? Can we still buy and sell shares?

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Hope it's Beshear cause I lose the least money, err make the most

2

Ox8

10 months ago

Shapiro is the most controversal pick of the contenders within the party factions. Beshear seems like the candidate without any one in the party opposing him.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Rlly? Why

0

Mooseton

10 months ago

you're overexposed in all the wrong directions lol

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Agreed. Oops I guess I was dumb selling earlier.

0

yoonmarketenjoyer

10 months ago

I'm operating under the assumption that nobody actually knows if they will be picked or not yet. Reporting suggested that Kamala was still doing interviews as late as Wednesday and maybe beyond.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Does this mean definitely the VP or definitely not the VP?

0

aenews2

10 months ago

https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1818816696813019464

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1818816696813019464

3

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Ty

1

temporaryname

10 months ago

ahahaha gl bro

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Hope that vetting tosses out Shapiro like they did Kelly. The sexual harassment incident, mark my words, will be an issue in the general if it doesn't prevent him from getting VP.

2

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Ur right, I will bet more on this cause im not losing both 🙏

3

temporaryname

10 months ago

bro you're up $286,613.93 why focus on 20k ? Focus on what you can control

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Big if true!

2

Laura

10 months ago

It’s 6pm ET/Bernie time and still no formal endorsement 😢 Voting commences at 9am ET tomorrow. It will all be over soon.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

God my PV has gone down 20K in last 48 hours. Really hope I win this bet and take the edge off my Shapiro N shares...

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

I dunno, bro. Just hoping I win at least one of these bets.

0

Hussieny

10 months ago

duuudde, you are so fucken rich, go have fun,, why are here with us poor ppl?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

With my luck, I may lose 40K on Shapiro N this month and this bet too!

0

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

aenews2

10 months ago

Yes is the reliable and predictable determination, in line with past resolutions. Every platform will have a resolving style and preferred ways of interpreting rules.

0

Julius2727

10 months ago

Yep. It's not about the money, it's about the bona fides. Poly should be reliable and preditable, not manipulable.

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

aenews2

10 months ago

This is just sad to see, why are people still buying?

1

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

No one is obliged to share their methodology for data tracking and analysis. A lot of folks here put hard work into developing them. Of course, no matter how good your model, you can still be wrong.

0

Verified.Counts

10 months ago

The fact that we are 3 days away from resolution and the market sits at 38% means people don't trust the data or think Nasa differs from Copernicus significantly. Seems like free money but we'll see, you never know.

Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?

aenews2

10 months ago

I mean. You would have probably lost even if this went to UMA court or if Polymarket clarified. I really doubt they'd have ruled your way.

0

stuart

10 months ago

Whats the source to prove he is republican?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Thanks Susan

4

SusanWarren,HR

10 months ago

Just a reminder that no month is "hotter" than any other; every month is equally beautiful. Period.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@temporaryname I bet it wouldn't be hottest. Indeed, it was super close. NOAA and Berkeley Earth were even closer (0.01°). Anyways, I lost 20K that time. Embarrassing loss, but I will make it all back this month! Maybe?

0

BenCM

10 months ago

The big reveal will come from our NASA insiders a few days prior to the public announcement with a drive, one way or the other, towards 80%+.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

@Grothendieck Just makes sense to buy the cheaper shares, my reasoning is similar to when I lost in March tbh. Shall see if it works this time.

0

BenCM

10 months ago

The big reveal will come from our NASA insiders a few days prior to the public announcement with a drive, one way or the other, towards 80%+.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

People closely tracking data can strike whenever. We can also be massively wrong, like when I donated 20K in March.

1

BenCM

10 months ago

The big reveal will come from our NASA insiders a few days prior to the public announcement with a drive, one way or the other, towards 80%+.

Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?

aenews2

10 months ago

Naw, should resolve Republican. And it did.

0

JohnathanDoe

10 months ago

The market will resolve once there is defintive evidence of the shooters political affirmations. Hasnt resolved yet, if no more defintive republican info comes out this market should resolve TO: 50/50

Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?

aenews2

10 months ago

Resolved to 0/100 actually, gg

0

Flipp

10 months ago

50/50

Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?

aenews2

10 months ago

Dunno. No one disputed, so it's done anyways.

0

stuart

10 months ago

Whats the source to prove he is republican?

Was the shooter a Democrat or Republican?

aenews2

10 months ago

Rethuglicans win again

0

Car

10 months ago

Car thanks you for the free money

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

You lost money on No, lost money on Yes, and now you'll lose money on N again. IMO. Good luck, tho

2

Laura

10 months ago

Bernie is an independent though, so there isn't the same kind of pressure to endorse. There's also a handful of Dem house members who have yet to offer their endorsement, so this kind of thing isn't unusual at this stage.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Indian and Black woman with Jewish husband, with a gay running mate. Gotta tick all the boxes!

2

0x1ea262777074bE2B109b39125519bc7a19060353-1721880478947

10 months ago

You’re funny if you think they’re going to put a gay dude and a black woman on the same ticket. Plus he’s not even from a swing state.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Wut?

2

Laura

10 months ago

lol I didn't either but wish I did. But I'm less adverse to buying higher now that it's almost a done deal. Kinda surprising to me that yes isn't a long shot at this point

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

aenews2

10 months ago

Boom yeah 211M

0

aenews2

10 months ago

dw it'll be even higher once the final numbahs are in

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

aenews2

10 months ago

dw it'll be even higher once the final numbahs are in

0

aaaaadz

10 months ago

Boxmojo now showing 205

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

You're double counting as air is both land and sea... Actually, ERA5 will be maybe 0.05 colder than 2023. On vacation rn, so haven't been tracking as closely.

1

ROROfrom16

10 months ago

Even with an air temperature of 17.16 and a sea temperature of 20.9 for the next few days, we'd still be slightly below the 2023 records. With the trends forecast, we'll probably end up with a difference of 1.16, a long way from the 1.19 of 2023.

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Bruh I'm agreeing with you and saying it's not formal (yet)

1

vote.fun

10 months ago

lmfaoooo nice try retard

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

LATEST: Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Portland, Maine, on Saturday. - ABC https://x.com/ABC/status/1817274758590853549?t=XJZcpJy4gyBrMe-GqlGt4A&s=19 Rules do say "formal" endorsement. Obviously this is a big step up from prior statements though, and is an endorsement. Bernie probably is getting closer to a formal endorsement.

4

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

https://x.com/ABC/status/1817274758590853549?t=dz29d6P8784zHKw-3gDvaQ&s=19

0

fundamentalmisunderstanding

10 months ago

yea I think if the media widely reported this as an endorsement, then it's proposable

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

Admittedly, that may be correct

1

Laura

10 months ago

I think the best interpretation is that this could be considered an endorsement but not a formal one.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Damn, maybe I shouldn't have bought 30K N shares based on that

0

PolyPredictor

10 months ago

Its a good thing that the chief of staff isn't running. Taxpayer-funded settlements aren’t new to Pennsylvania.. State officials paid at least $3.2 million in taxpayer funds between 2010 and 2019 to resolve more than two dozen sexual harassment complaints against government and public employees.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

"Shapiro's chief of staff sexually harassed an employee, and Shapiro paid her off with taxpayer dollars." Would be the attack line from GOP... Do we think it's easy to counter that? Personally, I think vetting will flag it, and it'll be an issue.

3

Who will endorse Kamala?

aenews2

10 months ago

https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1817243928548319732?t=0EJTBLeRyOBoHaT2wchbIQ&s=19

3

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Not that it matters much but AZ is next to a battleground state

0

n/a

10 months ago

Shapiro seems to be the best pick. I would vote Trump and can say, this guy is good at politics. Also 19 electoral votes and surrounded by battleground states. Mark Kelly is on an island surrounded by Red States, AZ only 11 electorals.

Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?

aenews2

10 months ago

If it's 199 they are so gonna have to round that up!

1

n/a

10 months ago

Not 1 website is predicting over 200mil. Lol degens

'Deadpool & Wolverine' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

10 months ago

It'll be over 200M lol

5

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

I dunno. I feel his odds are closer to 10c.

0

Yanoya4sure

10 months ago

With Shapiro up +10 againt trump as VP, and him headlining events this weekend and Monday for Harris (Monday with campaign co-chair), its hard to see Shapiro as anything but undervalued.

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

Oh shit yeah, temps are like 0.55° colder this year...

0

abee-Capital-Management

10 months ago

I know NASA use diferente sources, but Copernicus is a big proxy

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

10 months ago

It'll be sad when it's exactly 119 and the N's win

0

abee-Capital-Management

10 months ago

I know NASA use diferente sources, but Copernicus is a big proxy

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

10 months ago

oh my sweet summer child

1

ActDrew

10 months ago

Bruh you bet yes on everyone

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

10 months ago

Same reason the sky is blue

0

Donkov

10 months ago

How is Michelle still at 1.4?

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

10 months ago

say it with me... BIG MIKE BIG MIKE!

2

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

10 months ago

so true!

1

debased

10 months ago

Big Mike endorsing Kamala is part of the plan to ditch kamala at the convention. Diamond your shares and redeposit to buy the dip

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

10 months ago

Your GOD BIG MIKE JUST ENDORSED 😆😂🤣

3

'Deadpool & Wolverine' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

10 months ago

Might legit be gg, ngl

2

AccountNames

10 months ago

Taylor Swift just posted about it, telling her fans to buy tickets. It's over.

Democratic VP nominee?

aenews2

10 months ago

Lol I also joked about this with someone

0

Theodorus

10 months ago

There is no risk to the seat. The democratic governor of Arizona would appoint another democratic senator for 2 years, plenty of time to prepare a campaign for reelection. For fun it could be Scott Kelly, Mark Kelly's twin brother, also an astronaut :D

Democratic Blitz primary?

aenews2

10 months ago

No, as virtual roll call will start on August 1 and be finalized on August 7.

1

n/a

10 months ago

what is the official alternative? can a single candidate be nominated during the DNC?

Trump’s latest TikTok >30m views by Friday?

aenews2

10 months ago

Someone bought views

0

Donkov

10 months ago

Holy fucking shit, how the hell did it gain so many views?

Trump’s latest TikTok >30m views by Friday?

aenews2

10 months ago

Let's see if bot deletions or 30M happen first

1

Biden nominated by July 21?

aenews2

10 months ago

Buy low, sell high. Won't resolve for days, so might as well.

0

BUBASIIK

11 months ago

what's going on here?

Biden nominated by July 21?

aenews2

10 months ago

It'll go to vote tomorrow. Will take several days to resolve since UMA staff determined it should be disputed.

0

n/a

10 months ago

Why did this end up disputed? He dropped out

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

But if she ran, would she win the nomination?

0

Plutos

11 months ago

Its not 100 % sure if its going to be kamalla, but its 100 % sure that it wont be obama. lol.

Will Joe Manchin run for Democratic Nominee?

aenews2

11 months ago

In the span of a few hours Manchin went from saying folks were pushing him to run, to saying naw I'm not running. Cool.

0

Biden nominated by July 21?

aenews2

11 months ago

UMA staff disputed, for some reason.

0

BUBASIIK

11 months ago

what's going on here?

Biden nominated by July 21?

aenews2

11 months ago

Will have to wait almost 4 days for resolution because there was a dispute

0

BUBASIIK

11 months ago

what's going on here?

2024 July hottest on record?

aenews2

11 months ago

Hey! I never said that. I will sue for defamation.

3

MWM

11 months ago

"Y is a bond" - aenews2

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

neg risk conversion. Also, I sold the Biden. I re-bought at 8c.

0

premature-facts

11 months ago

If it was going to be Kamala, Biden would have endorsed her and we wouldn't have an open convention. It's Biden or Michelle. Don't waste your time.

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

0% chance but alright

0

premature-facts

11 months ago

If it was going to be Kamala, Biden would have endorsed her and we wouldn't have an open convention. It's Biden or Michelle. Don't waste your time.

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

aenews2

11 months ago

Oops I have N now

0

aenews2

11 months ago

It was over the second you bought!

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

aenews2

11 months ago

It was over the second you bought!

0

Apsalar

11 months ago

you maga people are so fucking lucky

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

Maybe if you have nothing to lose, and this is your possibly only shot to be relevant *cough* Harris

1

MichaelFowlie

11 months ago

Trump is basically guaranteed to win now with the assassination attempt turning him into an American hero. Why would anyone in the Democratic Party want to run against Trump and lose? It would be a stain on their resume. It is better to run in 2028. The only way I see someone else winning is if Biden dies (and he is very old so it's not impossible).

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

Yeah

0

LittleW

11 months ago

Or Biden is going to become an automatic looser and need to drop out to try to give someone else the push which comes from a fresh face being in the race... Yeah though... who knows....

June 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

11 months ago

Sorry, been preoccupied with tracking politics this past month and especially past two weeks

1

moviesera92

11 months ago

This market was so much more fun before (because of the liquidity)

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

You can sell your shares at 50c for the same amount you'd get if you waited.

0

Xplayer

11 months ago

it's always gonna show 50% now?

Democratic Nominee 2024

aenews2

11 months ago

BIG MIKE BIG MIKE BIG MIKE

4

defianceDeprecated

11 months ago

Lets go Michael!

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Actually the request data for the market (and all other non-negrisk markets) include P3 (50/50) as an option.

0

n/a

11 months ago

The rules state Yes or No. No chance for a 50/50 is included.

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

You'll need to wait 38 hours, or sell out.

1

gregus

11 months ago

Does this market just stay like this forever? Do we have to sell or will it pay out

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Yes, well needs to meet quorum so effectively closer to a super-majority in practice because not everyone votes every round.

4

Massa

11 months ago

so if the majority votes yes on uma itd go to yes then?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

@JustAcar Because the vote rolled due to lack of quorum. So it'll get a re-vote.

0

Robyratto1

11 months ago

When will it be decided?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Looks like it'll take another 61 hours to resolve

0

Robyratto1

11 months ago

When will it be decided?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Yeah... No one is even voting for P1

0

NigelFarage

11 months ago

why are people bidding above 50c

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

I assume because Y is currently leading the vote and N is completely shot.

2

NigelFarage

11 months ago

why are people bidding above 50c

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Because no one is voting N, so it can't win

1

RustyShip

11 months ago

in common parlance biden is senile by the definition and examples used here he is clearly not

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Sorry Susan, I apologize. I will attempt to maintain compliance with the HR standards into the future.

4

SusanWarren,HR

11 months ago

Let's try to refrain from using comparisons like "cow", "whale", "pig", or any other animal that could be interpreted as fat-shaming.

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Market won't be resolving N

3

RustyShip

11 months ago

in common parlance biden is senile by the definition and examples used here he is clearly not

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

4.15M Y / 1.00M 50 50 / 0.22M N

4

aenews2

11 months ago

Lol the largest whale voted Yes, not even P3. We'll see what happens, will be interesting.

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Lol the largest whale voted Yes, not even P3. We'll see what happens, will be interesting.

6

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

to what side

0

WeFinallyBeatMedicare

11 months ago

How is this not resolved yet?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

im shaking

2

inmate

11 months ago

i'm gonna crash out if no

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Hold strong, don't let N winning with 0.1% of the vote in sway you

0

SaudiMinisterOfHomeEntertainment

11 months ago

🫣

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Alright, guys. Soon it'll be the moment of truth...

3

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Well, it's been interesting but soon it'll be time to bid this market farewell. Hope to see everyone in the next senile market, or similar.

10

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 8 others

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

You may suffer from an inability to do basic math and statistics. I think P3 is the likely answer, but P1 is more likely than P2. This brings the EV below 50%.

4

AppleADay

11 months ago

If you think its p3 why are you selling off your yes shares for under 50c? lmfaoooooo

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Because I think it is most likely P3. We'll see tomorrow when votes are revealed, but implied odds here should be a bit lower than 50% IMO.

2

AppleADay

11 months ago

you are just trying to pump that shit so you can sell off all your shares ahah, we all see your share numbers decreasing. If you have so much confidence why are you selling?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Not really. If you asked anyone how bad a debate night it would have to be for Biden to drop out, they'd have said he would need to be senile.

4

Ckai

11 months ago

that's one heck of a leap

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

He may drop out because he was arguably senile in the debate

4

Ckai

11 months ago

What does this market have to do with the dropout market?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Biden crashed again, and drop out went to 50c. Very much doubt this market resolves to N at this point...

11

·

Liked by 41-17™as..., n/a and 9 others

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

Get involved and fulfill your constitutional right as a Polymarket citizen

4

gregus

11 months ago

Don’t make me get involved UMA

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

The N proposals were disputed, and it'll be put up to a vote starting in a couple hours.

0

ShyLOCKz

11 months ago

So the outcome proposed was NO twice after two disputes. What data changed since the previous NO proposals?

Biden senile during the debate?

aenews2

11 months ago

I re-watched the entire debate. I think N is better than Y, but honestly it was worse than I thought the first time. Probably fair to just toss this market into the blender.

0

yourrapist1776

11 months ago

i don't think a single yes holder watched the debate, they just saw a few clips on twitter and bought shares lmao

Biden vs. Trump Debate Winner - CNN Poll

aenews2

11 months ago

Bro Biden is unstoppable, can't wait for MAGA to get rekt!

0

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

11 months ago

Yes, it's over. Same for the other Barron involvement market.

1

ramibtc

11 months ago

why dont u pay already mf

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

11 months ago

@SerSwallowtail When a dispute happens, it goes to a vote in UMA. Correct, anyone with staked $UMA can vote. So it is not simple majority of voting UMA but rather must be the higher threshold of majority of staked $UMA. Since not everyone votes in every vote, these days, that works out to about a supermajority. 7 hours because the vote reveal period ends at 0 UTC / 8PM ET. Then market will resolve to N shortly afterwards.

1

ramibtc

11 months ago

why dont u pay already mf

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

11 months ago

Need to wait about 7 hours

2

ramibtc

11 months ago

why dont u pay already mf

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

It's the balls of one guy, basically.

4

Lawyered.eth

11 months ago

impressed by the balls of YES holders

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

I proposed N. They can still dispute if they want, though they will lose if they do.

0

LesterSmith

11 months ago

gg

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

And the other Barron market (with a lower bar of preponderance of evidence) has already been proposed and disputed. Voting for that and DJT real will commence in 3 hours. I would guess this one would also be disputed, based on the other two markets. But shall see.

1

Nicky-Boi

11 months ago

“The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Barron Trump confirming his involvement or *definitive* evidence that Barron was involved.” Looking forward to folks disputing what is an objectively correct resolution for this market later on.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

The deadline passed. But proposal was disputed, so will take two days to go through the dispute process. If vote no conclusive, it may take longer.

0

HenryN

11 months ago

we arent at the deadline yet so obviously not

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Yeah, I encourage people on both sides to post here if you care how this resolves. Voting starts in 3 hours.

0

dacoop1

11 months ago

also anyone can leave comments regarding the bet which voters will review

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Because preponderance of evidence (more likely than not) is the bar used in civil court? I'm saying it is a lower bar used in civil court, and this would not go far as evidence even with that low bar.

0

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Preponderance of evidence is the standard used in civil court. I'm saying that even with that lower bar, a witness who does not provide evidence orationale, and says he is withholding that information, won't be taken seriously. What he provided is merely an assertion.

0

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

@bwt06 That is an assertion, not evidence. Even with the lower bar used in civil court, Mike's statements would not be remotely sufficient.

0

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

@truthteller It's not that he did no post sources. He did not provide any of the evidence and specifically said he would not release said evidence for now.

0

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Only Mike is claiming involvement and has not provided any evidence or rationale. He said he may in the future if the situation changes, but that's beyond the timeframe of this market.

1

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Yeah that is not a thorough search. But it's also true and telling that no reputable news outlet has claimed that Barron was involved with $DJT. At best, there is some speculation but no evidence.

4

bwt06

11 months ago

In UMA discord, they just googled "Is Barron involved in DJT?" and then went with that

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Are you on Discord?

0

madkkee

11 months ago

Please stop using Mario as a source: Mario Nawfal is a serial scammer, just google: "Mario Nawfal Scam" and even he has the moral to post that it is not 100% confirmed. Also please check the profiles he tagged, all of them are scammers and involved in big memecoin scams. But sure, the son of a Billionaire who was a president and will most likely be president again launched a memecoin for what exact reason? To give Biden more ground to blame and cook Trump? It does not make any sense at all and there is no clear evidence besides grifters and scam influencers.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

You may want to post on UMA later today, since they decide resolution.

0

madkkee

11 months ago

A billionaire launching a memecoin when his dad is about to run for president? Martin is a big serial scammer, I am surprised this is a market at all and more importantly that people are even buying YES. The only people claiming Barron was involved are low tier irrelevant Crypto grifters/serial scam influencers

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

It'll be an interesting dispute, but would be pretty surprised if it doesn't resolve N. Doesn't seem we'll be getting any more evidence in the next 5 hours.

0

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

It's resolving N

0

fetfitta

11 months ago

How many credible sources have to confirm this before this gets resolved to yes? This is crazy.

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

It's free money for N

2

Car

11 months ago

you have a limit sell for your whole bag at 4.8ct you are UNETHICAL AS FUCK right now trying to get the new people to be your exit liq

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

@fckUMAnerds No, I previously had 13K N

0

0xaf

11 months ago

The question boils down to whether UMA senior staff is willing to call Mike Solana, Chief Marketing Officer to the largest investor in Polymarket, a liar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPSNuRXGRC4

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

You legitimately think that a witness who takes the stand but refuses to provide their reasoning/evidence would pass muster, even in a civil case where the bar is preponderance of evidence? Obviously false. No matter how credible the witness, it won't amount to anything if the witness does not even provide an account to corroborate their claim.

3

0xaf

11 months ago

The question boils down to whether UMA senior staff is willing to call Mike Solana, Chief Marketing Officer to the largest investor in Polymarket, a liar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPSNuRXGRC4

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

I'm swing trading. No, I don't think so.

0

gregus

11 months ago

If it’s only possibly fake twitter screenshots so far for the yes side it’s not gonna resolve as yes, is there any actual evidence so far?

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Whether he's telling the truth or not is irrelevant. He hasn't shared the evidence that led to that conclusion, so we can't assess it.

0

0xaf

11 months ago

The question boils down to whether UMA senior staff is willing to call Mike Solana, Chief Marketing Officer to the largest investor in Polymarket, a liar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPSNuRXGRC4

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

No, there's no evidence (excluding Martin and his screenshots). Some high confidence assertions, but that's it. Mike Solana said he wouldn't release any evidence at this time, but may in the future if the situation changes.

0

gregus

11 months ago

If it’s only possibly fake twitter screenshots so far for the yes side it’s not gonna resolve as yes, is there any actual evidence so far?

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

11 months ago

Free Money 💰

1

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

You need USDC.e on Polygon. You can also withdraw funds from Polymarket to your wallet and that will work. Just hit the USDC.e.

0

nawf

0 years ago

im trying to but it keeps saying i dont have enough usdc even though i have more then the bond...

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Last chance for the Y bag holders to dispute, or else market will resolve to N in 85 minutes. You will lose though, if you do. Fair warning.

0

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

I'm officially Team Yes!

0

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Where are scottylicious and therealbatman when you need them?

1

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

0 years ago

Not just involved. Involved with the "creation" specifically.

1

truthteller

0 years ago

To prove an element by a preponderance of the evidence simply means to prove that something is more likely than not. In other words, in light of the evidence and the law, do you believe that each element of his/her [claim/counterclaim] is more likely true than not?

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

@aeon69 The rules for the market

1

PovertyGCR

0 years ago

Everyone knows this market should resolve to yes but we're going to get cucked on a quirk of the platform. I'll take my medicine but wish there was a better resolution mechanism.

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

And also only requires Barron and not Trump's consent

2

PovertyGCR

0 years ago

Everyone knows this market should resolve to yes but we're going to get cucked on a quirk of the platform. I'll take my medicine but wish there was a better resolution mechanism.

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

The new market has a different resolution mechanism. It'll be decided by UMA and not Polymarket clarification: https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt

2

PovertyGCR

0 years ago

Everyone knows this market should resolve to yes but we're going to get cucked on a quirk of the platform. I'll take my medicine but wish there was a better resolution mechanism.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

aenews2

0 years ago

Easiest money on the site rn 💰💸

3

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Alright, show's over guys. Time for the Y folks to dump their bags before this goes to zero tomorrow.

0

Airdrops by June 30?

aenews2

0 years ago

Clearly, the LayerZero market should resolve to Yes.

5

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

aenews2

0 years ago

Evidence that is definitive, not that complicated

1

djtbetter

0 years ago

what is 'definitive evidence'? we've seen multiple people who claim to work in martins office say the met with baron, the founder of ANKR said he saw cameron on a call with barron, mario on spaces said yesterday essentially 'if this person confirms, then its true' referring to Ryan Fang's (founder of ankr) friend, referred to as 'Mr T' , in addition to all of the screenshots

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Only if with T's consent

1

aenews2

0 years ago

No

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Martin said it was a pleasure working with Barron Trump, send this back to 50/50

2

PowerPlay

0 years ago

Hmmm, on the space they said it was Barron Trump

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Yep, sadly for me

1

Car

0 years ago

I have noticed on markets where theres a lot of new people you can make tons of money

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Meanwhile this $DJT fake coin is going straight to 0

1

aenews2

0 years ago

Looks like the Y folks don't have enough faith, can't even keep Yes above 10¢ lmao

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Looks like the Y folks don't have enough faith, can't even keep Yes above 10¢ lmao

3

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Until it doesn't work. Sometimes, the fish win and beat all the sharps. Happened in Garvey, sharps lost 100K and the fish made it.

1

Car

0 years ago

I have noticed on markets where theres a lot of new people you can make tons of money

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

It's not over yet!

1

Dantellox

0 years ago

This was literally free money. Thank you so much all "Yes" shareholders!

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Okay, good luck

3

PsychosCalls

0 years ago

soon

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

The token is going to zero, my dude. Dump while you can.

0

PsychosCalls

0 years ago

soon

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Fek what happened?

1

PsychosCalls

0 years ago

Tried to tell yall, this is a no brainer. Never bet against me

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

They know it's a fake shit coin and aren't willing to put more money where their mouth is

1

VibesGreaterRules

0 years ago

SAD THAT THE YES TEAM IS UNABLE TO PULL OFF A 3:30 AM PUMP. NOT BRINGING THEIR BEST.

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

gg? Doubt

0

PsychosCalls

0 years ago

"I know for a fact there will be more media coverage within 12 hours"

Is $DJT real?

aenews2

0 years ago

Please Lord

0

89898

0 years ago

no buyers in shambles

'Inside Out 2' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

FIRE SALE: Need some more monies so I'm selling dollars for 99.7c

1

NVIDIA largest company before June 15?

aenews2

1 year ago

We'll see

2

Coram_Deo

1 year ago

Market Close Not After hours

June 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Another month, another month for me to donate to people. Congrats on last month, you did well Kapii.

2

Kapii

1 year ago

Why is Polymarket torturing its users so much? I´m afraid....

2024 June hottest on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Another month, another bond

1

NVIDIA largest company before June 15?

aenews2

1 year ago

Brokie is going BROKE 😳

4

Trump + Logan Paul TikTok >100M views by Friday?

aenews2

1 year ago

No? The outcome is pretty uncertain. We are halfway with a day and 6 hours to go.

1

Car

1 year ago

i suggest you dont buy more

Trump + Logan Paul TikTok >100M views by Friday?

aenews2

1 year ago

buy more N

0

CapitalTrader

1 year ago

no way beating 100m... thursday these time is best day of the week to getting engagement. but anyway it doesnt go more. i think gonna be stay 80M or smthng.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Ok Dr. Sato 😐

0

Dr.ChristmasJones

1 year ago

NASA is a scam.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

And furthermore, even reverse engineering or similar is imperfect and leaves a +/- 2 MoE. Does not even kill these brackets. If the value was known more precisely, then the "winning" bracket would not be at only 90c.

0

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

Yes, I agree: it is plausible (though "reverse-engineer" might be a strong word, as there is a conversion fortran program in one direction and what remains is a convoluted problem of formats). But this poses a problem: soon a few people here will have working codes for a sneak peek, so does it make sense to have gistemp temp markets? At least with an ERA5 temp market there's no early advantage for people able to untie the messy gistemp calculation.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

NOAA and NASA temperature markets have been around for a very long time both on Polymarket and on other prediction markets (and both NOAA/NASA use the same underlying GHCNv4 and ERSSTv5 data). Never really been an issue. Besides, the code in question is linked on the GISTEMP homepage. Also take in mind that I've LP'd these markets and actually taken an L these past few months. I certainly would have benefited from using ERA5 instead of GISTEMP. Despite that, I do honestly think GISTEMP is the more fun option because it can cuck even sharps like me =P

0

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

Yes, I agree: it is plausible (though "reverse-engineer" might be a strong word, as there is a conversion fortran program in one direction and what remains is a convoluted problem of formats). But this poses a problem: soon a few people here will have working codes for a sneak peek, so does it make sense to have gistemp temp markets? At least with an ERA5 temp market there's no early advantage for people able to untie the messy gistemp calculation.

Republican VP nominee?

aenews2

1 year ago

Can you buy more? I wanna short too

2

Smokey-Joe

1 year ago

I see TruthTeller has decide to build a Ben Carson long position starting at 15c. Knowing his panic buying habits, I would not be surprised if Ben Carson is 45c tomorrow.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Pretty sure the guy explained he reverse engineered it. Seems about right, wish I knew about this in March when I lost 20K R.I.P.

0

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

An alternative method would be to know some insider, ask for the latest SBBX.ERSSTv5 file (which is generated a few days before it is published, usually around the 5 or 6 of each month) and then run de python code. Trivial. And coincides with the timing at which these markets change their pricing ;)

2024 May hottest on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Good idea, he took it!

0

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

Maybe Aebonds will buy them!

2024 June hottest on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Good luck to all with the new month!

3

Indian Election: Modi reelected?

aenews2

1 year ago

I brought my sells back up! Having another fire sale to free cash

0

Idontwantausername

1 year ago

can I have some of the yeses

Indian Election: Modi reelected?

aenews2

1 year ago

No thanks, I'm done for now. Have enough free cash.

0

Idontwantausername

1 year ago

can I have some of the yeses

Indian Election: Modi reelected?

aenews2

1 year ago

Ah good point, cancelled my sells!

0

enderone

1 year ago

For those tracking, a deal has been struck with his coalition partners and Modi's swearing in ceremony as Prime Minister is tentatively scheduled for June 8.

Indian Election: Modi reelected?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, you lucky N bag holders. I need to dump and move onto new markets. So it's your lucky day, limited time offer to exit

1

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

the insiders should invite me because i've been losing 10's of K

0

Kapii

1 year ago

OK, cool, so 1.10-1.16 seems to be the winner. Just like last month, a few days before the release, the correct bracket suddenly spikes - despite the absence of any new information. Probably just a coincidence...

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Shall see

0

Kapii

1 year ago

OK, cool, so 1.10-1.16 seems to be the winner. Just like last month, a few days before the release, the correct bracket suddenly spikes - despite the absence of any new information. Probably just a coincidence...

NVIDIA largest company before June 15?

aenews2

1 year ago

F

0

Brokie

1 year ago

can we undo?

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

That's @drhorrible

1

gopfan

1 year ago

@planetline, I just misclicked at bought your 1.10-1.16 shares by an insane price, would you mind to dm me in discord (@gopfan) and make a reverse trade? 🙏

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

You're asking Dr. Sato herself

2

gopfan

1 year ago

@Dr.ChristmasJones do you potentially want more 1.10-1.16 no shares?

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

I already have, it's the bracket where I own the most shares. ERA5 (Final) is at 121 (15.914°). My assumption since the start has been that GISS should outpace ERA5, similar to last month. Historial and month-over-month trends would suggest around 3 higher. The reason I want to even out my exposure is because one of the other guys is bidding up high and that does concern me. We'll see who is correct in the next few days, I guess.

1

Kapii

1 year ago

No, I won't, because you're making a mistake and I don't want to be the one responsible for your losses. When your guess is 1.24, you need to buy the bracket including 1.24 and not a complete different one. You don't earn money by "even out your exposure" you lose it. You earn money by buying the bracket you think will win. I would suggest you put in a buy order in the 1.24 - 1.30 bracket, maybe up to 60%, and hope you get filled up.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

@Kapii fill me, dog I want to even out my exposure

1

Mexico Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

When will the Galvez tards dump all their bags?

1

Mexico Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

"Enkoll’s exit poll shows Claudia Sheinbaum leading with over 50% of votes." - Bloomberg

0

aenews2

1 year ago

https://x.com/enkoll_/status/1797441840666333340

Mexico Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

https://x.com/enkoll_/status/1797441840666333340

0

Mexico Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

Televisa Projects Claudia Sheinbaum to Win Mexico Election; El Financiero Projects Sheinbaum To Win Mexico Election

1

Mexico Presidential Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

naw bro me and scottie will be laughing to the bank!

1

inApocalypseTheBadsLooseAndCryForever

1 year ago

🤣he is trying to manipulate but will loose every dolar they put an we will gain every this dolar hahahaha

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Welp people keep bidding higher, so 20c it is! That should be pretty reasonable given current data.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Doesn't seem right that 1.10-1.16 is so high. I guess I'd consider 15c sell out just to cover my bases. ERA5 is at 121, and I expect that GISS will be higher just like with April.

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

ERA5: 121 If the trends hold from last month, we'd expect GISS to be a bit higher. That puts my median at 124.

3

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Doesn't seem right that 1.10-1.16 is so high. I guess I'd consider 15c sell out just to cover my bases. ERA5 is at 121, and I expect that GISS will be higher just like with April.

2

Kapii

1 year ago

Booooring...I'd like to lose some 10k as last month, but nothing is going on here 😴

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

I just bought at 53c, I'm trying to buy more shares there. Well, I could settle at 9c for 1.10-1.16.

2

Kapii

1 year ago

Booooring...I'd like to lose some 10k as last month, but nothing is going on here 😴

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Interesting. My estimate is 124 +/- 7. But I guess I could be missing something.

2

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

Still possible, don't worry, it's not like these temp markets are devoid of last minute surprises ;=)

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Left up a 11K bid for you to dump your shares

2

Kapii

1 year ago

Booooring...I'd like to lose some 10k as last month, but nothing is going on here 😴

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Some people wanted to dispute it because they think it could be a deep fake. So we're waiting until the dispute ends.

0

Extremepyro

1 year ago

I'm new to this, why isn't this resolved yet?

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

She said she wouldn't sell any coins and then dumped six figures, after calling out Sahil for doing the same. Might be a hack, tbh ✌

1

truthteller

1 year ago

Was Iggy Azalea hacked? https://polymarket.com/event/was-iggy-azalea-hacked?tid=1716944632749

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hey can you Y holders dump your worthless shares already? I've got better things to do...

3

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

"I want to make it very clear to you on the record. Obviously there were no deep fake videos... one had a filter. Only two devices connected to the account. That is something we really wanted to clear up."

2

truthteller

1 year ago

nah dude, it's still not enough proof. She needs to go on fox news and say it

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

"We're going to limit what we say about that shady son of a bitch... all the coins that have been sold, were by that shady son of a bitch"

3

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1795517602275692708?t=wwJ5dYY07xrppPM5D-qxBQ&s=19

0

truthteller

1 year ago

Caitlyn jenner will be revealing that she got hacked any minute now.

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Interesting read

0

aenews2

1 year ago

https://twitter.com/lypp/status/1795382657364185256?s=19

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

https://twitter.com/lypp/status/1795382657364185256?s=19

0

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Can the Yes chads do me a solid and fill my block? Please and thank you =)

0

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Smh, just dumb crypto degens

1

truthteller

1 year ago

What was the point of disputing the market if you're not going full port into shares now that caitlyn said sahil scammed her and she will be revealing the entire story tomorrow?

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

"FUCK SAHIL! He scammed us! BIG TIME!"

3

aenews2

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1795269306693075404

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner/status/1795269306693075404

2

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright guys, can you please pretty please take this to 90c one last time, for old time's sake? You'll never win if you let this go to 99.

2

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Nearly 100K shares to be bought now at 5-6c!

2

aenews2

1 year ago

YES HACK folks may notice there is a nice juicy block for you to smack and get a 20X return!

2024 May hottest on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

alright, I wanna dump my shares

0

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

YES HACK folks may notice there is a nice juicy block for you to smack and get a 20X return!

1

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

😒

2

fhantombets

1 year ago

Jenner on Fox News 10 minutes ago, SHE SAID SHE WAS HACKE

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Have 55K in this market, hope you're wrong 😥

2

ColinOscopy

1 year ago

I refuse to believe she did all this for a few thousand dollars, she will get sued and fined into the dirt. Cant be her. Doubling down here

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

this man speaks the truth

0

truthteller

1 year ago

The standard of proof has already been met. The only way it would be overruled if somehow it could be proven that the video where she said she wasn't hacked was fake. Which it wasn't. EVEN IF she went back on her word after saying she wasn't hacked wouldn't resolve this market to YES, becuase the market will resolve IMMEDIATELY once she makes the statement that she wasn't hacked. She made that statement

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Also, would you fine gentlepeoples be interested in a SEC Sue Jenner market? I hope to take your... see you guys in that one too!

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Come on guys, are you Y folks really gonna let us win? If we take this to 99, it's OVER.

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Come on guys, are you Y folks really gonna let us win? If we take this to 99, it's OVER.

0

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

But the account was not compromised. Unfortunate we'll have to wait 4 days to resolve to N now.

2

depop

1 year ago

this really has nothing to do with the token and more to do with the account being compromised. token could run even if it was a hack as long as it isnt rugged

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

Why are people buying Y?

1

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

yes

1

fluffmoney

1 year ago

g-guys am i retarded

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

aenews2

1 year ago

You must not have seen the Haley and ETF disputes

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

this is one of the most interesting markets i've ever traded on. never seen two sides so convinced the other side is crazy.

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

aenews2

1 year ago

Lmfao

0

KanyeTruther

1 year ago

Sorry relay, but the universe physically doesn't allow me to lose money what can you do

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

aenews2

1 year ago

@relay bruh I was reacting to news alerts, if you understand the situation better than a noob like me good for you

1

aenews2

1 year ago

It's not that complicated. Haley endorsed Trump.

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's not that complicated. Haley endorsed Trump.

3

Bonez0r

1 year ago

It's not that complicated. Ensorsement means she encourages her supporters to vote Trump as well. She did not do that.

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

aenews2

1 year ago

The fortunate side to Team Yes is that even if they lose the dispute, Haley can still say more things by June

2

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

aenews2

1 year ago

Looks like market has been proposed to Yes on UMA

2

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hence this market should resolve to “Yes.” But we'll have to wait 26 hours for vote reveal on UMA go conclude the formal process.

0

K-pin-

1 year ago

What was the resolution?

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well my private key has been leaked for a few years, so thought it would be a good idea to switch to a new account for 2024. Had been lazy and trusted no one would drain me.

1

DECRAPisDUMBandGAY

1 year ago

what happened to aenews1? did you kill him?

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

good luck with your endeavors

3

trickykid

1 year ago

This should be counted as "No". No body evidence. Helicopter itself means nothing.

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

Let the great dump begin, let's take this to 99.9 bois

5

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

Terrible interpretation, and Polymarket will not rule that way.

2

Mr.Green

1 year ago

Well he still hasn't been located then, they're just saying he's dead.

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

All I see is your bags burning!

2

Car

1 year ago

All i see is fog and clueless people. No president!

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

Link?

0

aenews2

1 year ago

We're back, baby. Well if you're right, anyways.

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

We're back, baby. Well if you're right, anyways.

0

Brokie

1 year ago

THERE IS A NEW LOCATION

Will Iran President Raisi be found today?

aenews2

1 year ago

I think brokie was your counterparty

0

Car

1 year ago

who ever bought my no shares at 89 please contact me i will refund you because i am such a dick for manipulating the markets

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yep, the kitty deniers are out of cash. They already broke all their piggy 🐷 banks.

3

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

I see

0

treats

1 year ago

I won on the Biden election, but I think that was the only one I've done

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

Have you traded on Polymarket before, or is this your first rodeo 🐂

2

treats

1 year ago

I might be wrong. But I have faith in Shl0ms. I don't think directly lying to his audience is the type of art he performs. And the content of the Roaring Kitty posts does allude to some kind of performance taking place. This feels absolutely like a Shl0ms performance. Right in front of our faces, telling us clearly what's happening. Yet the audience is unwilling to listen.

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

Looks like the crazy sauce degens are finally out of money, whew

2

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

holy shit

2

Car

1 year ago

I think 1713888952017 IS RoaringKitty.

Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account?

aenews2

1 year ago

Throw us a bone and do $0.11

1

1713888952017

1 year ago

Someone sell me 300,000 YES shares at $0.1, or $1,

# of Roaring Kitty tweets by May 17?

aenews2

1 year ago

R.I.P.

2

# of Roaring Kitty tweets by May 17?

aenews2

1 year ago

hope this ages well

2

aenews2

1 year ago

Hope you guys are ready for the posting frenzy in the AM

# of Roaring Kitty tweets by May 17?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hope you guys are ready for the posting frenzy in the AM

2

2024 May hottest on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's 🔥🔥🔥

2

Apsalar

1 year ago

May isn't even halfway done!

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Back to another month of predicting how much the Earth will burn 🔥

5

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

While we're waiting for the drop, what's everyone's guess for the anomaly? I'll go with 132.

1

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Yes they just joined and seem obscured, so probably alts. Could be new traders, but either way, they aren't insiders.

0

Kapii

1 year ago

Huge insider trading going on here. People who joined in May 24 are trading only in this market and are all of a sudden buying 1.31 like crazy.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Doesn't seem the "insiders" want to buy any more shares, ah well

3

'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' Opening Weekend

aenews2

1 year ago

decap is a masochist

0

Commodore

1 year ago

So... What is the story here? At first I admit I found the constant posting to be annoying, but now I'm kind of fascinated.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Not funny, broski. Some people have their life savings in this market.

1

Pump

1 year ago

it is 1.51 , propose please

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Their buys don't make sense to me either, but I'd chalk that up to overconfidence in their data processing. I can understand maybe 80%, but 92% is crazy sauce.

0

Kapii

1 year ago

Huge insider trading going on here. People who joined in May 24 are trading only in this market and are all of a sudden buying 1.31 like crazy.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

It's very clear these are not new traders. They are alt accounts.

0

Kapii

1 year ago

Huge insider trading going on here. People who joined in May 24 are trading only in this market and are all of a sudden buying 1.31 like crazy.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

There is no insider trading, just people confident about their data analysis. Overconfident I'd say, at these prices. We'll probably land right over the mark.

0

Kapii

1 year ago

Huge insider trading going on here. People who joined in May 24 are trading only in this market and are all of a sudden buying 1.31 like crazy.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

On or before May 14 according to GISTEMP's website.

2

BenCM

1 year ago

When is the result expected?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Might be like me last month when I lost 20K.

2

0x-JayBee

1 year ago

Yep I think we are dead om the water

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

That was an estimate using only ERA5, and a day old. Using more data, median should be higher now with lower uncertainty. Not 90c tho, not sure why folks are that confident.

2

Kapii

1 year ago

why do you buy 1.31 at 80 cent, but say your estimate is 128?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Because I got filled at 10c, so 80c is profitable. I still have more 126-131 shares than I do 132+

2

Kapii

1 year ago

why do you buy 1.31 at 80 cent, but say your estimate is 128?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Someone took it to 90c. Unknown whether they have an edge or are just dumb.

2

rex48

1 year ago

Wdym?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Looks like the NASA insiders finally blasted the market. Damn you Dr. Sato!

1

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Welp, there goes the liquidity

0

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

I don't mind explaining in DM. @aenews on Discord or @aenews_PI on Twitter.

2

BenCM

1 year ago

If you don't mind sharing, how jave you estimated that?

'The Fall Guy' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

Well that was admittedly embarrassing. Bonded the wrong side after I woke up from a nap. It's alright tho, making it mostly back by bonding the right way this time.

1

aenews2

1 year ago

Shit wrong bracket

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, now that I evened out my exposure, can someone explain what happened? My estimate based on ERA5 is 128 +/- 6.

2

'The Fall Guy' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

Shit wrong bracket

1

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

What are you guys even doing? Jeez

1

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Fully agree with this

1

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

Agree, and people obviates the fact that the measure of the global temperature has an inherent degree of uncertainty that is impossible to circumvent. And this error is only a tad smaller than the bracket sizes of this market.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Yep, that's right.

1

BenCM

1 year ago

1.13 is the record right? From 2020

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

People seem pretty confident where the final value will land, shall see

1

Will Friend.Tech airdrop by Thursday?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yes that's right. Polymarket missed a clarification, however. Market will definitely resolve No.

0

daley116

1 year ago

I'm new, what's after the final review? Will we get our money then?

Will Friend.Tech airdrop by Thursday?

aenews2

1 year ago

There will be a vote on UMA to determine the winner.

0

daley116

1 year ago

I'm new, what's after the final review? Will we get our money then?

Republican VP nominee?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's alright. She hated the puppy and thought it was "less than worthless".

1

KenLydo

1 year ago

she killed a dog, not a puppy,,,, is a pretty bold campaign slogan.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Anyone wanna side bet this month? Hit me up on Discord (@aenews) if you want to discuss specific lines not already on the books.

1

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Didn't see this until now. Thanks, appreciate it BenCM

0

BenCM

1 year ago

Chin up. Your california senate bet was clever. I thought it was more of a sure thing than it was, you only just missed out. Read all your posts on this market, again took an opposite position to you. Again you had a reasoned position, though it felt a bit more stright contrarian this time.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

I have Y shares, so it'll be the hottest

1

0x-JayBee

1 year ago

gm sir. Is this going to be the hottest year?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

im bored, guys pls talk to me

1

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

lolz

1

ohwell

1 year ago

I fear your smack

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Feel free to DM on Discord (@aenews) or Twitter (@aenews_PI).

1

Drunken-Mentat

1 year ago

I get a number, with a standard deviation of 0.05 degrees (which I can't reduce further), but I feel that number sharing will begin a flamewar.

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Comments seem really quiet this month, what happened guys?

1

Chess: FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

congrats relay, I think fabi will make it

0

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

dont make me smack you

1

ohwell

1 year ago

After it was so sweetly warm last month?

April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

aenews2

1 year ago

Brrr is it getting cold yet, guys?

1

Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Not a perfect arb, but revisions are only going to affect by +/- 0.01

2

Apsalar

1 year ago

not a perfect arb!

'Civil War' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

The numbers haven't changed at all since Sunday morning / afternoon when they posted estimates. Looks like the studio correctly predicted the amount to the last dollar!

0

enderone

1 year ago

Box Office Mojo's final numbers are in with $25,712,608. Unfortunately they still have that italics/blue text which may confuse some.

California Senate Election Winner

aenews2

1 year ago

Garvey bros RISE

2

Apsalar

1 year ago

Complete Schiftie Victory incoming

Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

As I learned in the last market, Yes is a bond

3

Speculate

1 year ago

why you so confident in YES. the data for last 9 days is below the previous year and next 5 days we expect lower temperatures all around the world. That is crazy

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

After losing 40K in the past month, I will need to Martingale even harder in the April market.

2

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I love you all and hope to see everyone in the next markets for April.

0

BenCM

1 year ago

Bit unnecessary. Aenews is a good sport.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

GISS was 5.2 higher than ERA5 in March 2016. You need to take that into account.

0

BenCM

1 year ago

We will find out in a couple of days, but i think the hard facts of the European measurement of climate change which are hard to ignore are that the sea temperature is sky high and that's 70% of the deal. Also they find a 0.1 deg increase in temperature vs March 2016, and a yes only requires a 0.02 degree increase. Those are the facts to face-value test your models against, if your model is pushing for a No.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah, that's not how it works.

0

BenCM

1 year ago

We will find out in a couple of days, but i think the hard facts of the European measurement of climate change which are hard to ignore are that the sea temperature is sky high and that's 70% of the deal. Also they find a 0.1 deg increase in temperature vs March 2016, and a yes only requires a 0.02 degree increase. Those are the facts to face-value test your models against, if your model is pushing for a No.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

@փիղ It's not like we have any new information from ERA5 since a week ago. Makes no sense to act like this is past tense unless you have other info.

2

Nasmutin

1 year ago

In the end, Respect 2 aenews2. Took balls 2 HODL.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Nope, the results will definitely change. Just incredibly unlikely it would affect the margin enough for this market.

0

mrworldwide

1 year ago

All the counties certify today! We're almost there

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Why are you talking in past tense?

3

Nasmutin

1 year ago

In the end, Respect 2 aenews2. Took balls 2 HODL.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

136

3

fineptune

1 year ago

Who’s the smartest anyway? Let’s find out. What’s your one point prediction? No range please. Mine is 144.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well if interested, can message me @aenews on Discord or @aenews_PI on Twitter

2

fineptune

1 year ago

Who’s the smartest anyway? Let’s find out. What’s your one point prediction? No range please. Mine is 144.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah I'd side bet against 144+ at 95/5 odds

2

fineptune

1 year ago

Who’s the smartest anyway? Let’s find out. What’s your one point prediction? No range please. Mine is 144.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah, 2016 was 130.8 in ERA5. 2024 is 141.0.

3

BenCM

1 year ago

Right, If ERA5 in 2024 is 1.41 and it's 0.1 above 2016, then 2016 is 1.31. Sticking purely with ERA5 data.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

The final ERA5 for March 2024 is 14.137°C which translates to 141.0 in 1951-1980 Base Period. 12.727°C is the average temperature for that base period in ERA5.

4

BenCM

1 year ago

If you don not mind sharing, where is the refernce to EAR5 being 1.41, and i assume this is compared with the same base year(s) as GISS?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yes, it's more precise than that. July is 16.953°C which is 1.278°C in 1951-1980 base period, or 127.8.

2

agginswaggin

1 year ago

So era5 is precise up to the thousandth degree C?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Brother, these are the values using the same 1951-1980 base period as GISTEMP. I already subtracted.

2

agginswaggin

1 year ago

You're right I take that back. But gisstemp is the average temperature above normal levels, era5 is just the average temperature. So you have to subtract a certain amount from era5 to make it make sense

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea.

3

agginswaggin

1 year ago

Are you combining air and sea from era5 bc gisstemp uses both

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, well here's my data and what market is missing: (GISS, ERA5, Difference) July: 118, 127.8, -9.8 August: 119, 131.3, -12.3 September: 147, 157.7, -10.3 October: 134, 152.1, -18.1 November: 144, 152.3, -8.3 December: 137, 146.3, -9.3 January: 121, 133.3, -12.3 February: 144, 149.5, -5.5 ERA5 consistently overshoots GISTEMP by very wide margins. These are using precise numbers pulled from Copernicus/ERA5 and NASA/GISTEMP. March is 141.0 for the Final ERA5. Would suggest about 134 +/- 6 for GISS. 136 is a N for the market despite being hottest, which is an additional buffer of 1. The win condition for Y is 137 for GISS which means -4 or closer. That would require a total break from trend. Also, climatereanalyzer always used NCEP until just a few months ago. In NCEP, March 2024 is actually 7 *colder* than record (March 2016), a sizable margin. Market would almost definitely be N-favored if the site hadn’t switched to ERA5. Funny how one site using different datasets changes people’s perception so drastically.

7

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yes, I would

0

Nasmutin

1 year ago

Weird, i got 152

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I promise not to laugh when you whip out your thing

2

SusanWarren,HR

1 year ago

"I'll show you mine if you show me yours" Alright on the count of three let's all whip out and show our models and promise not to laugh.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Never really seen any major side bet issues in the community over the years. The one time I do remember was treated as a major scandal and was for a large sum of money (and also not a Polymarket trader I think). You're just never going to have issues with reputable traders here, especially not for small side bets. It does not make sense for large public traders to short change. I'd be willing to Escrow with reliable third party if needed, I guess. But in general, we just trust each other to pay out promptly.

2

OracleMachine

1 year ago

Why/how should we trust you to make good on your bet if you lose?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I'm more of a 136 guy, myself.

2

fineptune

1 year ago

will be 139

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Good point, market could be mispriced. Feel free to click the buy button and correct the pricing.

4

fineptune

1 year ago

When ERA5 hit a record high month, so did GISTEMP always, since 2016 with enough margin >0.02C. This March has 0.10C margin from 2016. Anyone can verify this fact easily. If GISTEMP disagreed with ERA5 this time, in terms of record-high-or-not, it would be a real big incident. The reliability of the dataset would be questioned, then it could lose power to support global warming theory… Democrats wouldn’t allow this to happen.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

For those reallly confident in the heat, I'll offer a side bet at 20/80 that the anomaly won't be higher than 140. I want N, so you get cheap Y at 20. Hit me up @aenews on Discord.

3

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

True, wasn't that hot for me

2

HarvardInsider

1 year ago

"Most off-the-charts warmth was in Africa and Europe" maybe the Americans don't feel it and bought the other way

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Feel free to buy more shares, there's a lot of liquidity on the books.

0

eeeeee

1 year ago

ive got little clue as to how people could be pricing Y as ~60. I have Y as 89 given a dataset (or three) and some standard excel stuff. anyone want to point me towards what you im missing?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

April 12th

0

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

Time for the meta market on when this will resolve.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

@Matt0792090 Great, added!

0

aenews2

1 year ago

@Matt sure, what platform did you add me on and what's your username? I confirmed most of my pending requests

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Congrats

1

Melion

1 year ago

All news sources that I have seen report, state it was the warmest recorded march.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Woah I'm sweating, it's the highest anomaly in history for UAH

2

fineptune

1 year ago

“a new high monthly anomaly record” -https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/04/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-march-2024-0-95-deg-c/

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

@Matt sure, what platform did you add me on and what's your username? I confirmed most of my pending requests

0

Fred19999

1 year ago

https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-march-2024-be-the-hottest-marc

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Lol 0% chance of 152

1

Nasmutin

1 year ago

Weird, i got 152

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

That market is closed. Forgot about it, probably should have bought more N.

0

Fred19999

1 year ago

https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-march-2024-be-the-hottest-marc

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

This is a perfectly reasonable range, my estimates always are +/- 6 or 7. One standard deviation covers 68% of all outcomes. With what you consider to be my "wide" range, would suggest a probability of ~65% for N in this market. Do you genuinely believe the range can be narrowed further with current data? It can be reasonably shrunk to +/- 5 (or maybe at best +/- 4) prior to NASA report.

0

MtrxZ

1 year ago

my bet is 138-139, because march 2024 is hotter than 2016 in the era5 data, but the difference is not as big as february so we will not reach 144. I could not pretend to have any scientific mean of giving an exact value just "logic". in a few days the explanation wont matter anymore anyway

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, I'm selling at 97.5c/2.5c in size. Come and take it, Schiff bros ✌

0

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

ae-estimate: 134 +/- 7 for March 2024

4

'Godzilla x Kong' over $80m opening weekend?

aenews2

1 year ago

Gg thanks for playing

0

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I think you are missing that in 2016, GISS was 5 lower than ERA5. Try taking 139 and subtracting 5. That's only 134.

0

Melion

1 year ago

Everybody should consider the increase of the https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ by around 0.2 degrees. So even if the march air temperatures are the same as 2016, the index should at least hit 137

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Any of you guys on Discord? @MtrxZ @Melion @green-recruit-280 @Matt0792090 @Speculate Can add me @aenews... Or @aenews_PI on Twitter if you don't have Discord.

2

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Have you considered that it's actually cold?

0

Melion

1 year ago

Everybody should consider the increase of the https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ by around 0.2 degrees. So even if the march air temperatures are the same as 2016, the index should at least hit 137

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

If you want to see historical / prior versions, can check Wayback Machine. It's been 136 the whole year, bro. Until the February update a few weeks ago.

0

Matthias

1 year ago

pls fix the goddamn wording, the only thing making me nervous is the difference between the title and the description. its so badly formulated that this market has the worst odds by far from all similar markets. pls fix ur shit

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah, I look at data and determine odds then buy shares I believe are +EV. I've made probably 40K across platforms on all these markets.

0

Matthias

1 year ago

pls fix the goddamn wording, the only thing making me nervous is the difference between the title and the description. its so badly formulated that this market has the worst odds by far from all similar markets. pls fix ur shit

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

But your model is also wrong. You are both dumb, IMO. Just for different reasons.

0

MtrxZ

1 year ago

I don't know what is your prediction model but it sucks 🤣 My prediction model says you dumb

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Works same on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Insight. Markets are always pegged to a specific value, whatever the hottest month is at the time of market creation. That was 136, so the market description here indicates 137 or higher.

0

Matthias

1 year ago

pls fix the goddamn wording, the only thing making me nervous is the difference between the title and the description. its so badly formulated that this market has the worst odds by far from all similar markets. pls fix ur shit

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Seems pretty cold, my model says 133 for GISTEMP. My lower bound is 127 😃

0

MtrxZ

1 year ago

I dont know what you smoked but I want some

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

When the market was created, the record was 136. It was revised to 135 when February update was posted.

0

Matthias

1 year ago

I just checked the data.. the highest increase value is 135, so why resolve to yes at 137 and not 136?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

This is pretty much why I bought N this whole time

0

Speculate

1 year ago

For those who enter when I entered at average of 38 I would recommend to sell at this point. Daily data as well as my projection model shows that the temperature will flatten and will be around 14.0 until end of month which is below what it was March 2016. Also water temperature went down and for water it will lower than 21 on average. My prediction model also shows that it not going to be higher than 136(even if last 2 days will be the hotest) which even if it will be 136 still will resolve to NO. At this point risk reward is not equal, and this market to resolve to YES is around 10 percent. I fixed slight profit of 5%.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

The record was 136 when this market was created, that's why

0

Matthias

1 year ago

I just checked the data.. the highest increase value is 135, so why resolve to yes at 137 and not 136?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Woah, margin dropped to 5K. Nice 500 Garvey net in Kern.

1

aenews2

1 year ago

I'm selling my Garvey shares at 3.5c in size, if any Schiffh̶e̶a̶d̶s̶ bros want to exit and not have to hold for another two weeks (and risk any counties changing tallies slightly before certification).

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I'm selling my Garvey shares at 3.5c in size, if any Schiffh̶e̶a̶d̶s̶ bros want to exit and not have to hold for another two weeks (and risk any counties changing tallies slightly before certification).

1

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Unironically could be 136 given how close this is falling lol

2

SusanWarren,HR

1 year ago

...fuck, its going to be 1.36, isn't it.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Are you sure you're looking at it correctly? Getting colder by the day, bro.

2

Melion

1 year ago

2023 has already been confirmed as the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 by a considerable margin. The mean global temperature for 2023 was 1.48 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, with every month from June to December breaking existing records for high temperatures. This trend underscores the significant impact of human-caused climate change coupled with natural variations such as El Niño. Experts suggest that, as a result, 2024 is very likely to rank among the top three warmest years, if not the warmest on record. The UK Met Office has also predicted that 2024 could be the first year to surpass a global average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a critical threshold for limiting global warming. Given these insights and the fact that El Niño events typically lead to higher global temperatures, the Global Temperature Index for March 2024 could very well be among the highest on record, potentially exceeding the historical average by significant margins.

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I mean, I've been pretty clear I think N is better, though it'll likely be fairly close. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

2

Apsalar

1 year ago

>obtain alpha >bet a lot of money on it >act stupid in the comments in an effort to convince people there is dumb money on the other side >buy up even more shares for cheap >lose

Will Trump make bond by March 25?

aenews2

1 year ago

It will resolve to No

4

Pointman

1 year ago

Sick joke market, if doesn't resolve to 'yes'

'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

Once Mojo updates with the "actuals" then the market will resolve. Probably sometime today.

0

Speculate

1 year ago

Can some one explain , I see estimated on the website, but when we know it is final, the label will change? or what is going to happen? and is there are limit when polymarket will resolve it, like a last date?

'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

@Speculate I lost over $20K on Garvey recently, so I'm hoping to bet big on March N and make it all back. I think it'll be rather close but fall short of hottest, IMO. But we'll see.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Sony rigged this because they bet BIG on Polymarket

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I looked at that, but it looks cold to me. Hope I'm not doing anything incorrectly cause Zeke got totally different numbers...

1

Melion

1 year ago

Feb 24 was 144 -> easy money

'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

Sony rigged this because they bet BIG on Polymarket

2

Yinyang

1 year ago

Any news?

'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

haha

2

Apsalar

1 year ago

Guy who has only traded in the California Senate market, trading in his second market: Getting a lot of 'Schiff vs Garvey' vibes from this...

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

But it can be colder this month? Feels cold to me.

0

Melion

1 year ago

Feb 24 was 144 -> easy money

'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' Opening Weekend Box Office

aenews2

1 year ago

Goddamn fudging studios =(

1

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

I might be wrong, but I think this could be pretty close and will land N. Shall see, I guess.

1

MtrxZ

1 year ago

So why do you hold "no" shares... ?

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1772124646600486965 wagmi

4

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Can confirm AnEggplant paid out his side bet, really cool guy. The $100 makes me feel a lil better about losing 20K.

3

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Thanks, man ❤. I'll get over it, still easily profitable for the year.

3

friendlyguyy

1 year ago

Love you! Don't take the loss badly.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hey, just wanted to congratulate the Schiffheads for winning this market. I lost big, but at least I made friends along the way 🤝Hope to see everyone in the next market I suggest to Polymarket and then lose 20K on 🥂

9

·

Liked by Apsalar, Nicky-Boi and 7 others

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

It was left out overnight and spoiled 'cause Uncle Gus stuffed his fat ass and forgot

1

DumbDumb

1 year ago

Where is Garvey's gravy?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

If they weren't resolved they'd probably get rewards still lol

2

VibesGreaterRules

1 year ago

Katie Porter and Other need 50k of liquidity rewards.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Not sure if my prayers worked, so I went back to the Temple today. It was peaceful, and I've come to terms with Garvey.

3

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I... Wasn't joking, btw 😆

1

BenCM

1 year ago

Lol. I enjoyed that.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Close, was a strip of paper they provided.

1

AnEggplant

1 year ago

Was that piece of paper a $100 bill you pulled from your wallet?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Went to a temple and prayed for Garvey. Wrote "Garvey gets the gravey" on a piece of paper and burned it 🙏🙏🙏

2

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Wake up Schiffheads! You can sell your shares for 75c in size 😁

2

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

There's plenty of exit liquidity for Schiffheads

1

BenCM

1 year ago

Im not sure how you sold at 75 cents, there hasn't been a sell option available on this bet for sometime.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, moved my offers up to 28c. Schiffheads can exit at 72c on the dollar.

1

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Feel free to buy, ofc. Garvey may still have tbe gravey. Just don't want to stress while on vacation.

1

PabloB

1 year ago

wow do garvey believers not get some?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I've set limits for 29c, very fair imo

1

lordprotector - 7340

1 year ago

Try a limit order, pal. That's how you save yourself

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yea I did.

1

lordprotector - 7340

1 year ago

Try a limit order, pal. That's how you save yourself

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Alright, Schiffheads. No jokes, dead serious. I'll sell out 40K shares at 31c (69c for y'all). For any Schiff whales out there who want to exit, I think it's a reasonable offer in size.

1

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hey, we take a W when we get it, alright? Capeesh? This is LA!

1

BenCM

1 year ago

Lol. 7 votes.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

No, it's correct. The last dump was 7 votes in Garvey's favor.

1

BenCM

1 year ago

You might be looking at different data, but AP data via CNN has shown no change in the % difference between the candidates over the past few days. Still 12.5%.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's true, let me have this one 🙏

1

DumbDumb

1 year ago

I want what you are smoking

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's over. Garvey actually netted votes in today's LA update.

1

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

But for who? 5.8K margin rn

1

sd0000

1 year ago

It's finally actually Joever

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I don't believe you

1

Pointman

1 year ago

Kern exhausted

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Lol Garvey just gained votes from a county where Schiff is winning 41.5%-27.4%

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I sing

0

friendlyguyy

1 year ago

Nah. Today I've been singing.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

You can hear the Schiffheads nervously laughing in the background...

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I'll be praying for the homeland of Kevin McCuckthy to come in CLUTCH 🙏🙏

1

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I'm still here, crying in my room, thinking of where it all went wrong =(

1

Pointman

1 year ago

Where did all the very, very insistent Garvey belivers go?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

*400K/month

0

aenews2

1 year ago

They don't. They only spend money. Currently, they give away something like 150K/month in rewards (reverse of charging fees).

RFK Jr. running mate?

aenews2

1 year ago

Keep breathing the Aaron Rodgers hopium, lads

3

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Funds are non-custodial, funds are solely in your wallet and Polymarket has no access to them. So they are not earning a penny of interest.

1

Nicky-Boi

1 year ago

Oh wait, could they be earning interest on all the money deposited/tied up in markets here? $90 million in POTUS market alone, which yields $4.5 million annually right now in T-bills.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

They don't. They only spend money. Currently, they give away something like 150K/month in rewards (reverse of charging fees).

0

Nicky-Boi

1 year ago

Only started here last month, so question: how does Poly Market make money? lol

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I will scream

0

benfitzzz

1 year ago

garvincels will seethe when they see schiffmaxxers win 🤣🤣🤣

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

@BenCM Well you can either make it available on the book, or agree in comments and then put them up on book, or lastly organize a side bet.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Not feeling as great, but coin flip seems about right. Willing to sell out at 50c, Schiffheads 😉

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Not feeling as great, but coin flip seems about right. Willing to sell out at 50c, Schiffheads 😉

3

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

@AnEggplant Yeah sure. I'm @aenews on Discord and @aenews_PI on Twitter.

0

sd0000

1 year ago

If the rest of the remaining votes swing 2% from trend against Schiff and in favor of Garvey, Garvey STILL loses by ~5-10k votes.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

@mln19 Are you on Discord? I'd love to side bet against 60K+ margin.

0

sd0000

1 year ago

If the rest of the remaining votes swing 2% from trend against Schiff and in favor of Garvey, Garvey STILL loses by ~5-10k votes.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Schiffheads once again got too cocky

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

The demonrats are done for, Garvey's got the gravey! 😃

0

KanyeTruther

1 year ago

did the dems run out of paper to print votes on yet?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Naw, rescinding offer. I'll do 65c.

2

snarf43

1 year ago

at the bargaining stage now I see

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well, Schiffheads. I'm willing to compromise and sell out at 50c tonight if you wanna work it out. Might be legit the last chance tho.

2

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Red, I hope

0

0xaf

1 year ago

I guess everything is mail-in / provisional at this point. We already know how those votes split.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

But they have more ballots, just counting slowly afaik

0

sd0000

1 year ago

OC just updated, but they only counted ~7k incremental drops...bizarre. If it's exhausted already then Garvanzo bean is toast.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Why? Drop seems about as expected.

0

sd0000

1 year ago

Hasn't been updated yet on the aggregator sites but huge print for Schiff out of LA - this is over.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Honestly tempting, but I'm a bit overexposed.

0

snarf43

1 year ago

Garvey shares going for cheap, time to double down!

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Please Lord, forgive me for my greed. Lord, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Let my man Garvey get the gravey. Let Shifty Schiff get redschiffted out of existence, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

4

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Man, I'd love to side bet against a 50K or 60K margin

0

mln19

1 year ago

In my opinion, Schiff still the favorite to win by a 50k-60k margin overall. The Kern County votes broke a bit better than expected for Garvey.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

We barely got this market, too. I posted it, and they actually denied it the first time. Then they changed their mind and released it.

1

AnEggplant

1 year ago

I've been missing this kind of trading since PI withered into a husk. Man, I love taking other people's money

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Favoring dems is not the same thing as favoring Schiff tho

0

mln19

1 year ago

The issue is most of what is outstanding seems to favor Schiff. There's a few favorable counties out there for Garvey that have a bit left to count, but most of what's left seems to favour Schiff. Not going to be a lot in it in percentage terms

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Schiff is now "leading" by -4800 lmao

0

KanyeTruther

1 year ago

I was told schiff would be leading by 30k at the end of today

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Garvey has officially taken the lead, Schiffheads in total denial

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Lol 😂

0

KanyeTruther

1 year ago

I was told schiff would be leading by 30k at the end of today

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well Schiffheads, my new sell point is 71c, or 29c for you. Take it or leave it! Don't be greedy.

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Everything changed when Kern County attacked

0

BigMike11

1 year ago

Kern dropped, changed everything, and now we have a mere 100 vote gap. But the schifties have to wait until the nytimes updates to sell.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

#notfinancialadvice

0

aenews2

1 year ago

You should dump before it's too late bro

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

You should dump before it's too late bro

0

sd0000

1 year ago

Fresno just basically exhausted - what remains for Garvey?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Schiff heads the ones sweating now!

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I added 20K block at 19c bro

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

AeNews comment below not aging well

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

then buy more dude

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

AeNews comment below not aging well

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's lower than the day started, what's stopping Garvey from pulling over the next few days?

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

Well would you look at that. 31,500. Schiff has an extra cushion to play with

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

What's so funny, bub? Got something to say?

0

DumbDumb

1 year ago

lol

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Today could also be the last chance for the Schiff heads to capitulate, just saying. If y'all change your minds, I'll consider exiting at 50c ;)

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I'll only sell if you guys have a wall at 50c for me to fill. I refuse to sell my Garvey for mere kitchen scraps.

1

AnEggplant

1 year ago

It's ok, baggies. You can sell right now, get some of your money back, and it will all be over.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I think I prefer praying rather than panic dumping, gl!

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

Last chance for Garvey bagholders to get out with profit before it all collapses

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

fek

0

AnEggplant

1 year ago

Last chance for Garvey bagholders to get out with profit before it all collapses

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Again, Nikitis. From the very beginning, Polymarket designed the market to require the signature. They did so after asking traders for feedback. Also, government sources would indicate funding lapsed at midnight. You're confusing the WH halting shutdown procedures with funding lapsing. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7463

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Prediction markets always decide based on rules. It would be the same on PredictIt or Kalshi, if they used signature as rules requirement. Heck, on PredictIt they once had to keep a shutdown market open for a year because it was uncertain if rules criteria were met.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Nope, clarification re-iterated the rules. Also, when the market was being created they even asked traders for feedback and ended up going with the signature requirement since least ambiguous, most concrete step in the process.

0

Nikitis

1 year ago

It's not UMA, this is on Polymarket. They were the ones that decided the market should be resolved as a Yes with the clarification that changed the rules. UMA just rubber stumped their decision (and made a ton of money by betting on yes)

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Prediction markets always decide based on rules. It would be the same on PredictIt or Kalshi, if they used signature as rules requirement. Heck, on PredictIt they once had to keep a shutdown market open for a year because it was uncertain if rules criteria were met.

1

JoKo125

1 year ago

This is just wrong, I’m new here and clearly put to much faith in ‘poly market’. I figured the title of ‘Shutdown’ should override fine print added later on. No longer trust this site.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

What happened is they resolved how they said they would.

0

SusanWarren,HR

1 year ago

The thing to do now is not commiserate with each other, but instead to go out into the world, talk to journalists, post on forums, let everyone know what happened here on Polymarket.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Ah I see what you mean

0

AriaT

1 year ago

The final review is deterimined by a vote on UMA, and the vote is cast by staking UMA tokens to the outcome, and the outcome with most tokens win. So basically the rich with their bots can decide the outcome if they want

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

21 hours until the market resolves

0

Eloy2401

1 year ago

Don't lose hope guys, we're still on track. Panic selling won't benefit anyone of us.

Will there be a US government shutdown by Mar 23?

aenews2

1 year ago

Biden didn't sign the bill fast enough because it was past his bedtime.

0

Morifan

1 year ago

Probably a lot of the whales want to force the market to resolve even though there hasn't been a government shutdown.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Woah and they're deciding to follow what Polymarket said it should resolve!

0

AriaT

1 year ago

The final review is deterimined by a vote on UMA, and the vote is cast by staking UMA tokens to the outcome, and the outcome with most tokens win. So basically the rich with their bots can decide the outcome if they want

Oscars: Best Picture

aenews2

1 year ago

You need therapy

0

GodFuckingHimself

1 year ago

Insider her here , Christopher Nolan is a high ranking member of the tranny mafia that tried to control hollowwood via blackmail and this is a humilation ritual for him concluding tonight. Cheers.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah, I agree

1

ooops

1 year ago

It doesn't add a rule, if Joe Biden is the president or it was someone else at the time. Who cares? Him not being mentioned specifically doesn't even matter or change anything. What matters is the president didn't sign on time. Poly tried to explain better in the additional context and you still don't get it or don't want to.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Incorrect. Market was already at 70c before the clarification.

0

0xaf

1 year ago

The price flipped after the clarification above, which was the defacto resolution here.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

It literally re-iterates the rules. Re-iterate means it says the rules again.

1

Qwan

1 year ago

The 'addition context' doesn't reiterate the rule, it literally adds another one. Nowhere in the market was Joe Biden mentioned. If you need to clarify that to swing this yes then it's wrong, plain and simple.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Disagree. The community note simply reiterates the rules.

1

Qwan

1 year ago

Source: I'm an experienced UX Designer, Psychology Masters. + Studied and developed Smart Contracts.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Not sure what you mean. Whether the signing is delayed by an hour or a day or a week makes no difference. Market is regarding signing, and the rules are pretty standard.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

It's very common and typical for prediction markets to revolve around the signing time since this is a completely unambiguous step in the process. I remember with the bipartisan infrastructure bill markets, one trader lost 100K because Biden delayed signing for a few days.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Lol what?

0

Morifan

1 year ago

The whole point of Polymarket is to reflect what happens in the real world, correct? So why the hell are rules even relevant isn't this supposed to be an automatic process or something? Like you can't just arbitarily decide "actually it happened like this" You are inventing your own reality at that point. A shut down did not occur, if this market goes to Yes this website is rigged 100%

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Correct. The clarification simply re-iterated the rules, which say that a lack of signing means shutdown.

1

pkz

1 year ago

Market swung before the community note, that just repeated what it was already in the rules (that a law had to be signed by the deadline).

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

It's very common and typical for prediction markets to revolve around the signing time since this is a completely unambiguous step in the process. I remember with the bipartisan infrastructure bill markets, one trader lost 100K because Biden delayed signing for a few days.

0

AriaT

1 year ago

I think UMA is resolving Yes, but I might be wrong. However, in all honesty, I think this SHOULD'VE resolved 50-50. Headline and rules are mismatched, making people fall in the trap. Also, the rules itself is false, as only Congress decides spending for the government, so when the bill has passed it means no shutdown is required, and spending for the government is counted by the day, not the hour, so on March 9th there is no legal definition of a shutdown, ever. Unfunded government work is still work, meaning no shutdown. The rules are miswritten to the headline and what ACTUALLY happens in reality, which is what the people know of and are familiar with to make bets. If PolyMarket keeps on making unrooted in reality rules like so, I'm sure not many people will feel compelled to continue using the service

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Polymarket already stated the market should resolve Yes. If it resolved No, then they lied. How would any customers possibly trust the platform if that happens?

0

Morifan

1 year ago

Yeah this is an absolute joke if this resolves to Yes I will stop using this because I can't trust them to make correct decisions rooted in reality. A shut down did not happen this is reality if they deny reality that's their problem but they can lose a customer.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well there is undeniable proof that the bill wasn't signed until today, so there isn't really an issue. UMA staff shouldn't have disputed after Polymarket's clarification. But it won't change the result. If UMA wasn't part of the equation, Polymarket simply would have resolved to YES by this time.

1

Qwan

1 year ago

The issue with this isn't the title, nor the rules. It's the negligence of the fact that Polymarket AND UMA both know betters will lose BECAUSE the final clause is pushed below the bet. Point 1: As a user, I shouldn't need to click "show more" in order to fully understand the bet. And If I do, it should be highlighted. Point #2 The fact that people argue and berate EACH OTHER in these comments is unproductive and bias. Nobody is going to agree on losing their 95¢ shares, but we ALL need to agree that the fact ADDITION CONTEXT needs to be highlighted, Highlights an issue in HOW THESE MARKETS ARE DELIVERED! I sold all my positions, i'm not being biased. It's been 6-7 months since I've used this platform and ill probably stop again because of issues like these. The blame gets split between UMA and Polymarket and it's NOT decentralized at all, it takes minimul resources to fine-tune an AI to create better and more clear market titles + clauses. Point #3 If being well-versed in the law and government is needed to win this bet, so should the resolvers. We should have undeniable proof that the 3rd clause is true. thank you.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

@KeyLockey The clarification is straightforward and just re-iterates the original rules which specifically state signing being required. Also, most whales acquired Y post-clarification.

0

aenews2

1 year ago

Well you can probably ignore the noise for this one as it isn't contentious. Polymarket issued a clarification, and market will resolve that way.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I have 40K shares of Garvey at this point, it's difficult to sleep at night

1

sd0000

1 year ago

Bunch of Riverside just came in - made Garvey's nominal amount jump relative to Schiff, but not more than was expected.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Well you can probably ignore the noise for this one as it isn't contentious. Polymarket issued a clarification, and market will resolve that way.

1

Whippet

1 year ago

This is my first time on a fake internet money play website. I can’t believe how inadequately this is run. I see people have put into the thousands of dollars in here and now they are discussing the outcome hours after the fact on discord. For crying out loud they are pulling random articles from who knows what side of the political arse sucking spectrum and they are going to use these articles as the evidence that decides who wins and who looses. This website is more incompetent than the US ground forces in Vietnam, and its more fun to make the rules up as we go along. Your all getting sodomised by bit coin nerds, enjoy.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Please Lord, forgive me for my greed. Let my man Garvey get the gravey. Let Shifty Schiff get redschiffted out of existence, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

2

sd0000

1 year ago

Garvey got a strong dump out of OC and SD in the past hour but was totally counteracted by a *REALLY* strong dump out of LA for Schiff just now. I have Schiff in a better position than he was at begin of the day. +60k now forecast.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

oh God

0

sd0000

1 year ago

Garvey got a strong dump out of OC and SD in the past hour but was totally counteracted by a *REALLY* strong dump out of LA for Schiff just now. I have Schiff in a better position than he was at begin of the day. +60k now forecast.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

Hence, Polymarket issued a clarification that re-iterates the rules as stated.

0

Nikitis

1 year ago

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/08/government-shutdown-averted https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-poised-pass-spending-package-averting-government-shutdown-2024-03-08/

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

aenews2

1 year ago

From the rules: "If the US federal government goes unfunded for any period of time before a new budget/stopgap can be signed into law, it will be considered a government shutdown."

0

Nikitis

1 year ago

I don't get it. Every article I can find says the shutdown was narrowly averted. What's this bullshit about this resolving to yes?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

shit

2

Nicky-Boi

1 year ago

Orange County results today just released - Schiff:Garvey vote ratio actually got a little better for Schiff in OC. Virtually no change though.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

I hope not

2

Nicky-Boi

1 year ago

I do wonder if there's actually a slant in favor of Schiff with late arriving mail ballots. Would make sense that less involved Dems who wait to the last minute to research the candidates would herd towards the Dem frontrunner in a jungle primary like this.

Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?

aenews2

1 year ago

Gotta wait a week, broski

0

MtrxZ

1 year ago

Fuck Nasa they are sleeping on the data give me my $$$

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Garvey's just got the gravey

1

friendlyguyy

1 year ago

I feel like polymarket has a conservative bias with it.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

We definitely have a lot more than 10% remaining. DDHQ is way off.

0

BenCM

1 year ago

Can anyone explain why DDHQ say 90% of the vote was been counted by the Associated press say 55% of the estimated vote has been counted?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

One is very wrong with assumed outstanding vote

0

BenCM

1 year ago

Can anyone explain why DDHQ say 90% of the vote was been counted by the Associated press say 55% of the estimated vote has been counted?

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

But I'm a lib

0

friendlyguyy

1 year ago

I feel like polymarket has a conservative bias with it.

First place in California Senate Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Garvey so cheap rn, I'm capped out tho

0

Nicky-Boi

1 year ago

I know I'm missing something, just not sure what yet...

Will Sweden join NATO by March 31?

aenews2

1 year ago

Yeah, they fixed that an hour after the initial post. Doesn't change the fact that the signed bill has now been sent to the office of the President. Either Laszlo signs it as the interim President, or Sulyok will sign it after he becomes President on the 5th.

0

archaic

1 year ago

László Kövér is no longer Speaker. Reporting by Reuters is inaccurate.

Will Sweden join NATO by March 31?

aenews2

1 year ago

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1763845475159932977

0

Trump Margin of Victory in South Carolina Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Can't be resolved yet, as there are still absentee ballots that will be added to the total. Plus some minor corrections or wayward votes.

1

jmAUS

1 year ago

Can we get this settled? Surely no more votes to come in

Will Ether Rock sell for over $600k at Sotheby’s?

aenews2

1 year ago

Need to wait for the UMA dispute to settle

1

aenews2

1 year ago

It will resolve in another 24 hours

Will Ether Rock sell for over $600k at Sotheby’s?

aenews2

1 year ago

It will resolve in another 24 hours

1

patriot

1 year ago

this market should resolve - the rock did not sell. what's the fucking holdup lol

Trump Margin of Victory in South Carolina Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

Looks like we'll have to be our own needle now

0

aenews2

1 year ago

"With 84% of votes in, we’ve stopped updating our estimates. We don’t expect the final margin to change much once all votes are in..."

Trump Margin of Victory in South Carolina Primary?

aenews2

1 year ago

"With 84% of votes in, we’ve stopped updating our estimates. We don’t expect the final margin to change much once all votes are in..."

1

Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?

aenews2

1 year ago

🙏

0

OneMoneyPlz

1 year ago

Hmm, looks like they will be voted in on Monday. Kinda tight but lets see

Odie successfully lands on the moon by Thursday?

aenews2

1 year ago

Feel free to dispute, but NASA already confirmed it landed.

1

Apsalar

1 year ago

too early to propose. we have confirmation that it landed, but the state of the Odie has not been confirmed and if it's too damaged to achieve it's mission objectives, it was not a success.

US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?

aenews2

1 year ago

He disputed

1

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

1 year ago

50-penis is going to dispute this. You're not about to earn a free return in a matter of hours.