Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

8 hours ago

@Le-King Because for them to milk as nuch money off the project as possible, they should aim to launch before the election. Either Trump wins and he's set to no longer be a private citizen, or he loses and the Trump brand becomes far weaker.

0

n/a

21 hours ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

15 hours ago

Looks like they'll be able to launch by the end of the month if they're aiming for pre-election.

3

n/a

21 hours ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

15 hours ago

What does that have to do with token deployment?

4

Tentaclecracy

19 hours ago

Aside from past coin conjectures, I find really difficult for world liberty financial to launch their 0 yield non transferable "governance" token before the election, because they aim at issuing it as unregistered security (hence the 1 million min capital for qualified investors) and that exception requires approval from SEC which is controlled by the Democrats. I don't see this happening any time soon, the Democrat majority in SEC will vote No or in the best case slow it down with a fair amount of red tape.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

21 hours ago

https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-world-liberty-financial-aave-v3-instance-on-ethereum-mainnet-proposal/19383

6

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

n/a

1 day ago

lol

3

Bepper

1 day ago

They actually said it was Adam Back. You see how they kept him in the shot the whole time and then panned to his face. That was the whole point.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 day ago

Sure DM me @aenews_PI on X or @aenews on Discord

0

Lawyered.eth

1 day ago

sigh. happy to hash it out via dm's on X if you want... but I really think you should think this through. That's a lot of dough and I'm virtually positive you are going to lose.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 day ago

So when are they going to release then?

0

dimmas

2 days ago

No, Trump definitely won't release a coin in his name before the election, even if Barron's really asked for it. Yesterday, the NYT published an article titled “The ‘Crypto Punks’ Behind Trump's Murky New Business Venture” that two of his crypto partners are former crooks. He won't take any chances when the entire election is decided by a few thousand votes in two or three states.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 day ago

Sweet, guess I can rebuy the shares I sold

2

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

2 days ago

I can't believe this, I never thought we'd go out this way... cold and alone waiting for the rescue that never came

9

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

2 days ago

Hopefully next week, I want this market over with already

0

Car

2 days ago

What does soon mean

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

2 days ago

"The @WorldLibertyFi token sale is coming soon! Don’t miss out—only those on the whitelist will be able to participate. Link in bio"

1

n/a

2 days ago

https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1843414417536634902?t=Fo5hrzUubq-tV70-NhArpQ&s=19

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

2 days ago

https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1843414417536634902?t=Fo5hrzUubq-tV70-NhArpQ&s=19

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

2 days ago

Did I really derisk at the bottom before this wins? Fek

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 days ago

I doubt that is true

0

PolyRig-Fried

2 days ago

Also this dispute is the ONLY time this year where the popular vote doesn not eqal to the total votes for the final resolution: https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843378713662238748

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 days ago

ok

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

2 days ago

Balz against the Walz rn, hucker down team

11

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 days ago

gn

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

3 days ago

It's too bad YouGov wasn't 1 point better for Walz

1

n/a

3 days ago

Bros are we getting scammed? Where the FUCK is the poll?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 days ago

u the GOAT

0

Gauth

3 days ago

personally i'm all in bro

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 days ago

cause ur a fatass duck dude

0

RaidsAreNotInvasions

3 days ago

i don't understand, i was informed that yes is an absolute mortal lock. why is no one filling my orders

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

5 days ago

Meh. Every reputable poll has been close to even: +2 Vance, +1 Vance, or tied

2

MAGAKen

5 days ago

This is a load of bullcrap. Anyone with two eyes and ears can tell you JD Vance dominated the debate. The immediate post debate poll showed JD Vance won. Every other poll has shown JD Vance won, but I bet you're waiting to cherry pick the one poll full of paint chip eating idiots who says Walz won and you're gonna take off with people's money. I bought JD Vance at 29 cents because I knew it was a bargain, and was familiar with JD Vance's debating style, it was a bargain for me. JD Vance exceeded expectations, NOW PAY UP or I'll be laywering up.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

6 days ago

Is this really what the Vance guys are betting on? Look. Y'all may win. But it'll be razer close. This is not the bond you think it is.

1

Balls2theWalz

6 days ago

Of 13 Liberal New York Times columnists, only 2 said Walz won. One of which was “just barely.” All 11 others said Vance won. This is the LIBERAL NEW YORK TIMES. Reuters is not rigging this poll.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Walz won IMO but I'm a LIB. For the purposes of this market, seems like a coin flip.

1

Balls2theWalz

1 week ago

Why would anyone in their right mind bet on Walz. We all know he lost.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

I did, I think

0

n/a

1 week ago

when is this shit coming out

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

np, put up a bit more if you want

0

n/a

1 week ago

thanks

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Just crapped and I feel better now

0

n/a

1 week ago

When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Last chance to sell for 0.1c guys. I'm pulling my sell order in an hour.

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽

1

n/a

1 week ago

when is this shit coming out

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Yep

3

Waifu Hunter

1 week ago

did anyone notice aenews shares from 500k++ yes to 400k yes lol? he is exiting xD

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Yes 99.18% (1,946,401.8) vs. Early Request 0.82% (16,097.04)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Yes 98.67% (1,198,718.02) vs. Early Request 1.33% (16,097.04)

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You're mixing it up with the other vote. The current results are 98.48% Yes and 1.52% P4.

0

n/a

1 week ago

It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

97.6% P2 Yes

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Seriously? Dump your bags now. Stop holding worthless shares.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

No

1

Jurad0x

1 week ago

They entered in October 1st not in September.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Final resolution is Yes, will be resolved in 23.5 hours

0

n/a

1 week ago

Whatever the final resolution is, it shouldn't be voted by the stakeholders. Makes 0 sense...

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Reveal period is 24 hours

1

n/a

1 week ago

Gg

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You should exit before your shares are worth zero.

0

JustGambling - 3165

1 week ago

Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Last chance for dumbos to sell before their shares go to zero

0

n/a

1 week ago

Gg

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Gg

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Sold out my N, this is dumb

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Because Yes is the correct answer. Who knows how UMA will rule tho

0

MyLossIsYourGain

1 week ago

50Pence and aenews are buying no while their pre-flip comments are still up in UMA discussions.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

No one should be confident, it's very close

2

donky

1 week ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Reporting seems pretty split, and reputable polls have been close to even

2

1 week ago

Aka the market prices in a ~35% chance of media bias

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

And of course the Vance people will boast even if Vance wins by 1%

0

donky

1 week ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Can't wait for meltdown here if Walz eeks this out

0

donky

1 week ago

Again... the odds pre debate were 70 to 30 Walz. Post 70 to 30 Vance. This is a 80 point swing. We all know what we saw. Were just waiting to see of media biased can cover up a 80 point public opinion swing. Anythings possible. Thats why all the Walz bets were made. They figured performance + bias easy win. Then theybsaw the debate and said oh F@#$!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Time to tear down the wall

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Lol

2

Mountainman

1 week ago

This was a clear Vance win. If the polls this resolves YES, I think independents and even some liberals may stop believing polling (a lot of conservatives already don't). BUT, being that this is probably the last debate before the election there is always a chance they rig it. I still think Vance takes this but it's not a sure thing solely because of the chance of polling dishonesty.

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

1 week ago

Yeah 0% chance of hottest

0

Tkromm

1 week ago

ERA5 Results are out for September. By their metrics (Daily mean absolute global mean near-surface (2m) air temperature): Sep23=16.377 Sep24=16.174

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

I have zero sell orders, so no I'm not desperate. Hoping to ride to victory cause Vance is a snake oil salesman.

1

DS831228

1 week ago

Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Nice fat block at 20c for y'all

2

n/a

1 week ago

Feel free to fill me if y'all are so confident it's a 🔒

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Fill me Vancetard 😆

1

DS831228

1 week ago

Just open EU newspapers and pools- they are like 90/10 in Vance favor. I didn't watch anything, but if our left sided media says vance won i don't need any more info. GL guys

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Alright, buy more then?

1

n/a

1 week ago

Ridiculous. Walz was thrashed.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Feel free to fill me if y'all are so confident it's a 🔒

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

I don't understand why people are so confident about this, could land either way

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Ok bro

0

Wayback

1 week ago

i just laughed at Walz buyers, theyre so delusional to think that he won, its crazy

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

💩💩💩

0

Jayson242

1 week ago

Vance definitely won this debate. He was calm, collected, and was very confident. I think both Walz and Vance did pretty well, but Vance was better at answering questions, and walz just looked like he was crying because he was about to crap his pants the whole debate.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Naw this is very close

1

Wayback

1 week ago

I just laughed at Walz buyers, because they're delusional to think that Vance lost.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Will laugh at the Vance buyers if they lose this one

2

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

The salty tears... I can't wait

3

PinochetsAirplane

1 week ago

did we watch the same debate?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Vance is great at lying with a straight face, and he easily came off as more confident whereas Walz started off nervous. But VP debate watchers are more politically in tune than the Presidential. So I'd expect Walz to edge this.

5

donky

1 week ago

Anyone saying Walz won is delusional. This was a professional debater vs a school teacher and the teach got schooled. Not close. Those who bet Walz bet because the thought the media would bail them out are in for a big surprise. Only worse beat down was the recent Trump vs Biden.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Why

0

BoeJiden420

1 week ago

-$4,300 lol

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Easy dubs

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

I'm out, peace ✌

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Largest incursion into their territory in TWO DECADES, and multiple tanks have crossed the border along with actual ground troops. This is clearly not the type of special ops the rules are intended to exclude.

2

n/a

1 week ago

"The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said early Tuesday was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border, the first such incursion by Israel into its northern neighbor’s territory in nearly two decades." - New York Times

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said early Tuesday was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border, the first such incursion by Israel into its northern neighbor’s territory in nearly two decades." - New York Times

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You do realize November already resolved Yes, right?

0

n/a

1 week ago

No point arguing. 50pence & aenews2 bought $800k worth of shares in Israel enter lebanon market, and UMA token price rose by 12% in last 24hrs . So I guess this is rigged. Whales can buy whatever they want and vote as per thier choice by stocking the UMA tokens. truth doesnt really matters

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Keep coping

1

JoeBETS

1 week ago

If they said war operations, sure but they specifically stated COMBAT OPERATIONS, acquiring intel is not that PERIOD. If there's no new update and this resolves as YES Polymarket should be ashamed of themselves for falling into peer pressure and mob mentality like that. Disgusting

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

50Pence and I will resolve the market, many are saying this (joke)

0

0x2A4cd726120A0d210ebE980328268163A6CB54E7-1720978918858

1 week ago

Who controls final review?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Some serious copium

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 week ago

People are still fading this market?

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Wdym

0

Justifax

1 week ago

Selling as a whale is trying to scam the market. Very sad and unfortunate, but not surprising.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Clear site cookies and log back in first

3

Caligulas.dog

1 week ago

Using mobile? I noticed polymarket mobile page has issues atm. I couldn't sell my shares there

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Good luck with your argument

0

shinigami.3

1 week ago

Rip yes holders https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"However, Israel has just succeeded in significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities without putting a single troop on the ground in Lebanon — at least for now." - Punchbowl News

0

shinigami.3

1 week ago

Rip yes holders https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

1 week ago

You can average down if you still believe there's a shot. Though... I don't think so.

1

CultArtist

1 week ago

i will ride this to zero

'The Wild Robot' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 week ago

thanks for playing

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 week ago

Welcome back!

1

Hungrytoad

1 week ago

might buy back in .. big

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 week ago

Tick tock naturalnoob 🕦

2

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

1 week ago

Huobi is a Chinese exchange

1

Greta-Tunafish

1 week ago

Polymarket didn't even have the decency to say that there would probably be no more announcements. Pathetic, but this way the Chinese can see straight away what kind of business Polymarket is.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

1 week ago

It's alright, that was my bad for sure

0

YatSen

1 week ago

死人妖和孙炒流量，流量过了就烂尾不管了，polymarket第一个国人盘就这样rug了，毫无信用，无视规则。The first Polymarket for Chinese users got rugged like this—zero credibility and completely ignoring the rules. What a joke!

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

1 week ago

You're lucky I left limits up and let you effectively roll back most your trades at 30c.

0

YatSen

1 week ago

死人妖和孙炒流量，流量过了就烂尾不管了，polymarket第一个国人盘就这样rug了，毫无信用，无视规则。The first Polymarket for Chinese users got rugged like this—zero credibility and completely ignoring the rules. What a joke!

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

n/a

1 week ago

That seems compelling to me, personally

0

rozi

1 week ago

Here's another one: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831512664507314308 For me, this is explicit enough. They are clarifying what they're supporting. It's Harris's official Twitter account.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

I give up, the insiders are too stronk

4

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

So I unfortunately know a thing or two about Justin Sun

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Justin Sun is a flaker tho, no? I had all crypto in TRX before I did Polymarket.

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Good chance they flake? Even delaying would be enough, if not.

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

Man. But, "If no announcement is made by Huobi by September 30, 2024, 8:00 PM (UTC+8), this market will resolve to 50-50."

September 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

2 weeks ago

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html

1

dikec

2 weeks ago

At what time of the month did this market usually resolve in the past months?

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Do the Chinese even use sarcasm to the extent it is used in the West?

1

Fatboyslim

2 weeks ago

Because we understand the sarcasm in her tweets, and know the probability of a random person being trans. It's not rocket science.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

How so? I bought at 30c

0

BlueSky123

2 weeks ago

看来你自己也相当有信心。

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Why are people so confident? Idgi

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

2 weeks ago

NaturalNoob should just DM me on Discord. Let's negotiate an exit, brother!

2

Mountainman

2 weeks ago

Love seeing the big "NO" holders starting to unload serious amounts of their shares, some leaving all together. Some were up BIG and now selling close to break even…. Watch the panic set in after their winning positions go underwater with no one to dump on. "Yes" doesn't even need anyone buying to skyrocket, just "NO" unwinding their positions :) Tik Tok ladies and gents, Tik Tok.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Polymarket is basically determining the market, not UMA

0

AugustoPinochet73

2 weeks ago

Not high enough for your entry point, but with your UMA lobbying powers I would say your EV is break even

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

n/a

2 weeks ago

So what are the odds Huobi actually makes an announcement?

0

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

2 weeks ago

too hot

1

gkg

2 weeks ago

Pretty much everywhere, it’s gonna be hot

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

2 weeks ago

At long last, the streak has been broken! We shall be unburdened by what has been, global warming is over...

2

Will Brazil unban X before October?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Oh no

0

'Transformers One' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

2 weeks ago

ggs

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Maybe this is the last chance for Team N to come out winners 🙏🙏🙏

0

Lawyered.eth

3 weeks ago

pump it back to 75% let's run it again

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

R.I.P.

1

LaCuriosidad

3 weeks ago

Apparently, yeah https://imgur.com/a/o72J02U

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

It hurts, I know. But we will get through this brother

1

Hungrytoad

3 weeks ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

You market sold all your shares at 7c

0

Hungrytoad

3 weeks ago

can someone explain where my money went ?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

"prediction markets.... get ready to cash your tickets, the answer is YES"

8

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I'm not the 2nd tho

1

Hungrytoad

3 weeks ago

aenews2 you took my place 😠 I liked being the number 2 holder

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

hold my hand

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

FEK

0

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

I’m sorry guys I was completely wrong. I thought that Farokh had a cryptocurrency podcast but I just found out that he is actually a famous Italian chef, and Trump is going onto the X Space to give his top secret lasagna recipe!!!!! SELL OFF YOUR “YES” while you still can!!!! Only 30 minutes left!!!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I'm sweating bullets!

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Same

1

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

Do you really think he is just coming on to talk about his love for the art of dance? Tell me what you know, please. I am getting very nervous.

Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Woah some serious diamond hands in this market

7

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Ok bro, I'm sure I'll lose more in this market than my Top 5 all time losses combined

1

LaCuriosidad

3 weeks ago

Last chance to sell for YES holders with Trump Coin Derangement Syndrome

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

If any of you retardio N folks decide to dump, I'm keeping some sells open for you. Will pull an hour before the livestream!

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I don't understand why you are so confident. A lot of the Y holders are sharp traders and would be posting the largest L of their prediction market careers if this goes N.

2

Lawyered.eth

3 weeks ago

lol I'm a little worried but pretty confident

Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL

n/a

3 weeks ago

🐔🐔🐔

3

Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL

n/a

3 weeks ago

He's gonna lose, and he knows it

1

RememberAmalek

3 weeks ago

rekt u scared u gonna burn ur money betting on urself?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Doubt it

0

LaCuriosidad

3 weeks ago

maybe cause they know something you don't

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why are people still buying N on this?

2

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

n/a

3 weeks ago

No?

0

Glover

3 weeks ago

CHINA 5+ THERE WE GO

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I do both. I buy early-middle, buy near the end, and buy start of the next month.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Do tell no pple why you're so confident so early into September

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

3 weeks ago

We've managed to make it every single month, even if only by a little. Now's finally the time, probably.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Do tell no pple why you're so confident so early into September

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Pretty obvious what the rules intend and how the platform would rule

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

As do I, specifically because I think the parameters surrounding the proposed resolution are very vague.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Well it's a good sign you're on the wrong side. The good news? It's not too late to switch.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

I hate being on the opposite side.of your bets.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Fill me naysayers

1

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

n/a

3 weeks ago

close to counting but rules say the cute furry animal with retractible claws

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

Can I interest any 'fraudulent' buyers in my 'copycat' shares?

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

I have yet to see a single reputable poll where Harris didn't win lol, even Republican pollsters had her up

1

Teumpwillwin

0 months ago

I can’t find a single big online poll where Harris won. This is some rigged shit. Polymarket is scamming people using a specific leftist poll while the title says “according to polls.”

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

This is a very degen market

2

WhiteKing69

0 months ago

If i knew how to get crypto I would bet on this

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

Moreover, Harris should be higher in the first place

2

Dick Cheney

0 months ago

If he has millions can’t he just overwhelm any other market action? We shall see

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

What's the plan, chief?

0

wanyewest69

0 months ago

trump won the debate

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

Harris is up on virtually every single prediction market and gambling site rn

1

n/a

0 months ago

Not a trump fan but too many people are trading this as if it's directly dependent on what happened in the debate vs an otm option with 1 dte.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

I did

0

n/a

0 months ago

Put something up

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

0 months ago

Where are the Trump fans?

0

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

Thanks!

2

Thevsvsgs

0 months ago

Man your track record is Awesome

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

Hate to say it, but I told you so 😆

4

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

Woah so much liquidity for Trump holders to max buy worthless shares

3

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

Sorry, but we'd RIG it anyways even if she makes a little oopsie, just like we RIGGED the election in 2020 👉

0

0x800977102c70ef82B2bE329585cAFB0AD03AA4c1-1724712090083

0 months ago

easy money your Indian non African candidate will lose

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

That's every festival

0

n/a

0 months ago

And if the coconut gets cracked?

Who will win the debate according to polls?

n/a

0 months ago

easy money, orange is getting SQUEEZED tonight

4

September 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Woo hoo! 😃

1

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It was published like an hour and 14 minutes ago, 11AM ET

0

n/a

1 month ago

How is it possible to close this bet before data was published by NASA ?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I also have a few Y shares there

1

n/a

1 month ago

@aenews2 as long as yes hits on Kalshi I’ll survive lol

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I think it will, but only 87% confident there cause it's more narrow than this one

1

n/a

1 month ago

@aenews2 as long as yes hits on Kalshi I’ll survive lol

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market!

2

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

lolz love you too buddy

1

Eridpnc

1 month ago

Insider AKA Aescam at it again... stop trying to hack NASA GIsstemp we won't be fooled. Let's all chip in and market buy no. Just sold my kidneys, liquidity coming in soon.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

In a surprise to no one, the final is 130. Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market.

8

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Implies hottest in GISTEMP

0

siim

1 month ago

Published a few days ago, and the data has been around, so not breaking news. But still interesting.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

True. Well, I do have multiple accounts in the first place, but most the action is from my main. You have a point. If nothing else tho, I kinda want to reach higher on the leaderboard.

0

n/a

1 month ago

hey @aenews2, have you considered betting on these temperature markets from alternate accounts? I figured it would tone down the vitriol from the jealous trolls, make it a bit harder for copycats, and hence maybe more enjoyable to all. Obviously you have done nothing wrong and it's totally OK if you like the current situation

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Post picture with Imgur, definitely don't believe that

2

aenews3

1 month ago

You did not parse the data correctly. I'm getting 119 every time.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Where are you getting your information? The anomaly is roughly 130.

0

aenews3

1 month ago

You should have sold for profit when you had the chance. There will be little to no increase in temperature. It's a Tie.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

There's no mud. It'll likely be hotter in every single database. Won't be remotely close in GISTEMP. Last month was divided, and actually very close.

0

siim

1 month ago

No is absolutely underpriced here. The data is muddy enough that it's pretty clear that no isn't a 1% chance. The whales are selling off their positions incrementally to try to not spook the market, just check the activity tab.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

???

0

Fatboyslim

1 month ago

FUCK. Just sold my holdings after confirming. Thank you for sharing, I am forever grateful

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Are you finally realizing you're wrong? Well it's been fun.

1

Greenfelder

1 month ago

latest GHCN data shows 128, yikes. Should be fun though

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

We are in ENSO Neutral, not La Nina. And the incoming La Nina is a weak La Nina. I don't understand if you are just trolling or this retarded.

0

aenews3

1 month ago

Ya and what come after is LA NINA !!!!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Agreed. Price should be at 99.9 and it's been stubborn

2

0x330e1ed1f3A7Edfe00D2E02db7b2fb4CE34e77C0-1725898374832

1 month ago

The most mispriced market in the history of polymarket. They will write legends about me.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

El Nino has been over for 3-4 months, not really relevant

0

aenews3

1 month ago

If you mean El Nino is finally over you are correct. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153058/el-nino-exits

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

What conversion are you talking about?

0

analord

1 month ago

just tweaked the numbers of the JRP repository, returns 119 every time. 130 only returns if you don't account for the celsius/fahrenheit conversion in the first few lines

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Looks like the pump is finally over

0

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

When will you stop pumping your bags

1

aenews3

1 month ago

We are going below average folks: Match this chart to NASAs #s. https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2024-09-08.gif

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

111M is pretty auspicious

1

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Assuming 2023 remains at 119, 2024 needs be at least 120. In reality, it'll be about 130.

0

n/a

1 month ago

What will the exact number required to be for it to finish as hottest on record?

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Do you... Want more? Always happy to fill you more at 4c. But fair warning that the shares are worthless as I explained in previous thread.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

every time im sad i dont have enough 1.20-1.24 shares, i see aenews is there to help!

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Land-Ocean anomaly on 1951-1980 base period, as posted by NASA/GISTEMP

0

MOA

1 month ago

Can some one explain what this is an increase over? August 2023? July 2024? It’s like children write these things…..

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I'm here

0

PinochetsAirplane

1 month ago

erm where is aenews2

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

because the film was a big success

2

Makoto

1 month ago

It is weird that even a est, Fri and Sat have a same number

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

I know you do lol. I guess either you are pumping your bags or you are retarded.

0

aenews3

1 month ago

You're right I suck at Math.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Meh. I'd say 65% above 129, 35% 125-129, 0% everything else

0

joe.night2024

1 month ago

I hope so, but i guess, the probality for under 120 = 20%, between 120-129 = 70%, and above 129 = 10%.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Ignore. It's a troll. Tho you should dump your N fr.

0

n/a

1 month ago

are you selling now?

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

NOAA uses the same GHCN+ERSST data that GISTEMP uses, and it was only 0.01° hotter. With the market rules at the time, it would have resolved N if NOAA was the resolution source. The reason I bet the way I did is because there was a buffer of 1 due to the downrevision. And indeed, it was incredibly close with GISTEMP landing at 1.39 vs the 1.37 strike in the market. If it had been 2 lower, N would have taken it.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

It's objectively true, why are you saying "wrong"? I'm not doing any calculation, I'm just relaying the actual numbers.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

It was an incredibly close market (like last month). NOAA and Berkeley Earth both reported only 0.01° hotter than the record. Moreover, revisions hurt Y in that market because it was pegged to the value itself not the record. If NOAA had been the resolution source, market would have resolved N on tie due to the 0.01° downrevision in both NOAA and GISTEMP.

1

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Also, those that think Aenews is the reincarnation of Einstein, he was wrong about the March market, even though SST and ERA5-Land showed an increase in 2024 wrt 2023.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

And what is the anomaly in ERA5? That is a 131 anomaly. A tie in ERA5 in my model implies a median of about 127 in GISTEMP. Last year during El Nino, ERA5 kept outpacing GISTEMP. This differential has shrunk to very little the past few months, and we are back to historical normalcy on average.

0

aenews3

1 month ago

Uhhmmm This says he lies: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575974560993287

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I expect an apology once the data releases in a few days

1

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Ignore the crazy guy pumping in the comments. I was correct about 121 last month as well. I'm just sharing the alpha. This isn't remotely close, so y'all should save your money.

0

n/a

1 month ago

ae-projection (Final): 130

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Hope not

0

1 month ago

https://x.com/SimbaSnell/status/1832621503969398890

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Please buy more N 🙏

0

n/a

1 month ago

Friday 41.5 m and Saturday 41m ? No drop ? When's the last time you seen that happen for a movie no drop from Friday to Saturday

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Good one!

0

n/a

1 month ago

I'm praying for my bags. Please lord forgive me for my greed. Please let the Beetlejuice lovers flee the theatres with terror, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Please take price back to 50

0

n/a

1 month ago

Bidding 68c on 105m+ based off an early estimation is crazy

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Thanks, keep coping while I win both bets

1

aenews3

1 month ago

you spray and pray like a true larp. Your technical analysis is really top notch.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Beetlejuice is a bond, wdym lol

0

aenews3

1 month ago

Ya I cant wait 3 days because I want to buy more beetlejuice box office lotto tickets. Larp Harder.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

As promised, I have a nice sell stack at 99.3c since I'm running low on cash. I recommend folks with N sell before they go to zero.

1

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

1. The ERA5 data itself implies very low chance of N. 2. We have more data now, so it's definitive.

1

joe.night2024

1 month ago

Just to be Fair: aenews doesn't lie. He analyses correctly, or at least he really thinks so. And he has good arguments. He may be right. The possibility for Yes is bigger than possibilty for No. But the possibilty for No is bigger than 25%. So No buyer have a 25% chance to win. That means, they take the 25%-chance at the price of 2%-Chance. And that's why i bought No (in this market).

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Jk

1

n/a

1 month ago

It's a BOND 🔐🔒🔐🔒

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

It's a BOND 🔐🔒🔐🔒

1

n/a

1 month ago

say it a third time. i dare you.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Gg... Again?

4

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Made more than 250K last month, try again

0

AiBets

1 month ago

aescams losing (zero predictive ability, he was copying others here) is a good day

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

I'm praying for my bags. Please lord forgive me for my greed. Please let the Beetlejuice lovers swarm the theatres with glee, for the lols and for my pocketbook.

3

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Still have zero sell orders. Will add shortly tho, at 99.3

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

AENEWS wants you to dump your NO shares to get out of his position at 99.9 don't let him out!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Why are you trying to make people lose money?

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

He has YES and No Shares and is trying to walk the price down. Create Doubt. Stick to your gut. Hold till reveal.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I don't even have sell orders lol, tho I will add some soon since I'm still low on cash

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

AENEWS wants you to dump your NO shares to get out of his position at 99.9 don't let him out!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

ae-projection (Final): 130

0

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Big if true

0

n/a

1 month ago

at this point no matter the saturday numbers, no one knows what the final number will be, it's a coinflip, place your bets accordingly

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

LOL. I made 175K last month alone, across accounts, across markets, and across sites.

2

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

you buying at 99 cents isnt profit ya larp.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Pretty well, obviously. I've made 250K off them.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

Already down bigly on September Hottest Month Market I see... How are your models working out for you?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

What a clown

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

3 more days till all your profits go bye bye. Start packing.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

You are a literal retard lol

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

It's a burner your models are trash. Keep buying beatlejuice box off and Kamala Shares you might get lucky.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I think the guy larping is the maniac who spams the comments and owns zero shares.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

Bro you are the biggest larp on PM. You and your idiot TG friends bought all those yes shares. These markets arent "projecting" Jack Shit. I cleared my schedule for Tuesday to watch you lose 400k. You deserve to get whipped out. We all know you are on the wrong side of the trade. MOG.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I see this is landing about where was expected, a bit under the ERA5 anomaly of 131. Slightly overperforming my ERA5-only model.

0

joe.night2024

1 month ago

I don't have enough liquidity. And i am new to this market. And i care only for the end. You are smart. But maybe i see what you don't see.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

estimates are conservative tho

0

n/a

1 month ago

there was just to much optimism movie is underperforming the estimates

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

If you disagree with the projection of the margin market, you should buy there and fade 1.30+. Moreover, if you were remotely close to right, it should be +EV to have 2c shares in this market and buy 5c shares of 1.20-1.24 in the margin. For 7c you win if not hottest and win if it is close! You probably won't tho cause you know your shares are worthless.

0

joe.night2024

1 month ago

And i expect every thing except 130 ;) only 3 day remainig ;)

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

No. I said the market is projecting 130. Please re-read.

0

joe.night2024

1 month ago

If you are so sure, that it will be mor than 129, why don't you sell here and buy in the other market?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

While the margin market is projecting 130, real people here are still buying N. Y'all should be buying cheap in the other market if you think you're right.

0

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Well yeah, we have had the data since ERSST released on the 3rd. I already went big with 150K+ before that tho, so my modelling and analysis is simply superior.

0

n/a

1 month ago

even I am super curious. Imagine putting in $272K in a prediction market bet just to make $15K.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Did I bond the wrong bracket? Or wagmi?

1

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Just woke up

1

n/a

1 month ago

@aenews2 what is going on bro ?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

More than one account and two markets, have sold and re-bought as well. So probably more like a 30K win, broski

3

n/a

1 month ago

even I am super curious. Imagine putting in $272K in a prediction market bet just to make $15K.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Historically, the anomalies are close to even, with GISS slightly lower.

1

n/a

1 month ago

@aenews2 I am guessing you are so sure on yes because of historically higher temps from NASA datasets compared to copernicus?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

no matter how many times i smack it, it keeps coming back

1

n/a

1 month ago

Anyone know how to swat this mosquito?

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

LOL

4

TimeTraveler

1 month ago

I'm giving 95-105 the best odds currently, this also means that I'm giving 85-95 and 105+ equal odds compared to eachother.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Naw it's not just him. The estimates all align around 44M.

0

TimeTraveler

1 month ago

Also, Warner's and Deadlines's estimation (85-95) is now at 4% because some Indian guy is very good at predicting or something.

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Wagmi

0

PickleRick

1 month ago

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1832222409455186311

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

You are delusional

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

Thanks for proving my point.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Because I need cash for other markets

1

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

AE News will say he just wants liquidity to bet other markets but the truth is he doesnt trust his own data. The Real Batman is buying his worthless bags before the reveal!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Correct

0

PanosMariolis2001

1 month ago

if its a tie No wins right?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Bro you don't own any shares

1

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

uhoh the real batman buying AENews Trash YES. Whose gonna tell him!

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

Shall see!

0

joe.night2024

1 month ago

My prediction: August 2024 anomaly will be 119 +/- 7 (112-126). Only 4 days remaining..

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

n/a

1 month ago

It's impressive that the entire range is wrong despite the interval size

2

joe.night2024

1 month ago

My prediction: August 2024 anomaly will be 119 +/- 7 (112-126). Only 4 days remaining..

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I'm sure there will be promo's, but dunno about a regular $5 coming back.

3

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

@joe.night2024 You need to process the ERSST file to calculate

2

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

@joe.night2024 If you Google "ERSST", what you want is the top result which links to NOAA's website.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Previews always count, you are simply wrong. They get rolled into Friday's number (or whatever the opening day is for a particular film).

0

TimeTraveler

1 month ago

It's a movie with a bunch of hardline fans, those tend to go to early screenings, but those hardline fans aren't representative for the general population, and the earnings from the early previews don't count for this bet either.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

@joe.night2024 You'd need to calculate it

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

The differential between GISTEMP and ERA5 that existed last year is gone. At this point, you should basically expect GISS to land on average slightly under the ERA5 anomaly.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

No, I'm taking everything into account there, including historical. You are just incorrect. What I'm saying applies before ERSST, tho. Since we have that now, we are good.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

I'd say judge for yourself

0

1 month ago

Seems more like $12m previews

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Deadline lowballs

0

1 month ago

Seems more like $12m previews

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

A tie in ERA5 (131 anomaly) implies GISTEMP would be easily over, lol. 127 +/- 7 in my model. But yeah, we do have more data now.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It's not remotely close. You must be messing up on your end.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

Gg?

0

PickleRick

1 month ago

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1831926075477389819?t=NpkfiUj-mxnEqm5_cSB40A&s=19

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I don't want to spoonfeed all the information (though you can probably get the details from past markets). Just know that you're wrong, and you could have gleamed it from ERA5 alone even before ERSST dropped. GISTEMP anomaly should be pretty in line with ERA5.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Correction: Ocean slightly less, land way more!

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

"We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon with the end of El Niño" June 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

@joe.night2024 NOAA's website

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Where are you seeing that land is even with last year? You're living in an alternate reality, lol

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Because the land is way hotter, it's not rocket science.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

💀 GISTEMP is Land+Ocean, silly

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

" The current CPC/IRI analysis suggests that El Niño conditions will dissipate around Northern Hemisphere Summer in 2024. The current El Niño has weakened to a moderate intensity (after being roughly the 3rd strongest of the last 30 years) and is likely to continue dissipating over the next several months" - Berkley Earth, March 2024

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Surface air is the entire surface. Just as with the past few months, we'd expect the GISTEMP anomaly to be close to the ERA5 anomaly (131). Moreover, we have the data from ERSST now. So it's a done deal.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Aenew's model revolves around only air temperature, which was a minor factor in 2024, Ocean temp was causing records to be broken. I feel like Michael Burry right now

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

GISS is Land+Ocean. So what if the ocean is slightly cooler? You need to look at both, then you'd see it's overall way hotter than last year. Or before ERSST, you could look at ERA5 surface air which captures the entire surface.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Looks like the insiders were right after all

8

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I think you're misreading. I'm saying it's irrelevant to look at only SST. We care about Land+Ocean. And we know roughly where it'll land because ERSST released on the 3rd. Again, I'm just saying this was a near certainty even before we got more data. Evidently, it's entirely dead now.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

"Clear flip happening in july, with 0.1c disparity in august." Yeah that's pretty irrelevant, because GISTEMP is Land+Ocean.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Well ERSST releases on the 3rd, so more like I bet 200K or so before that release. The uncertainty is gone at this point. My point tho is that even before that, it was a done deal.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

^ Applies to both of you

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

No, my ERA5 model only takes into account the surface air (t2m). I don't use the SST from Copernicus. If you want to discuss further, hit me up on Discord (aenews), Twitter (aenews_PI), or Reddit (aenews).

1

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Also considering the chance of simple human error (they enter the wrong number and don't update it until after the resolution period for this market closes) or the chance that someone at NASA is aware of this market and attempts to manipulate the number to get 100:1 odds on their money. Crypto based prediction markets haven't been tested in the courts, and it's doubtful that SEC market manipulation laws apply to prediction markets.. so doing something like that could be seen by some unscrupulous actors as a low risk way to make a boat load of cash.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

The mistake you're making with ERA5 is that you're comparing the 131 anomaly to the 131 anomaly last year in 2023. You should be comparing ERA5 to GISTEMP, not ERA5 to ERA5. Same mistake people made last month. My ERA5-only model pegged this at 127 +/- 7 (2σ) when September started. You are clearly not correctly parsing the data.

1

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Also considering the chance of simple human error (they enter the wrong number and don't update it until after the resolution period for this market closes) or the chance that someone at NASA is aware of this market and attempts to manipulate the number to get 100:1 odds on their money. Crypto based prediction markets haven't been tested in the courts, and it's doubtful that SEC market manipulation laws apply to prediction markets.. so doing something like that could be seen by some unscrupulous actors as a low risk way to make a boat load of cash.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Because that is 131 anomaly in ERA5? So of course it implies GISS won't be close. And I'm not buying at 5%. I'm selling! Literally the opposite.

1

WindWalk2

1 month ago

If its 'unambiguously the hottest', then how do you explain ERA5's data? They are showing roughly 1.505 vs. 1.506 (0.001 difference). I know sattelties are a lot less accurate but that seems far from unambigious to me.. I'm sensing some serious overconfidence here.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It doesn't make a difference. It's unambiguously the hottest. "V5" would not change this, given monthly rankings are relative to each other, and given the margin.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

For these reasons and others, buying YES at 98 cents or above is all but guaranteed to be negative EV over the long run.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Lastly, database changes make no difference as the market is relative to all past months. As an aside, August will be the hottest in NOAA and Berkeley Earth, and probably every other dataset.

0

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.

1

WindWalk2

1 month ago

Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Ah yeah, I lost 20K that month betting on N. Was very close. NOAA and Berkeley Earth were only 0.01° over record, too.

1

Greenfelder

1 month ago

for some prespective, march (which won by 18 points) was trading at 50-50 on april 2nd. This market is much, much closer than that and yet N shares at 1.2, CRAZY

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Surface air being roughly the same means GISS probably won't be close lol

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

ERSST v5 anomalies down 16% since 2023 august. Surface air temp relatively the same. Who are the idiots buying yes here?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Wut

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

When you buy at 500k's worth at 93 and sell at 99 for a 600 Dollar profit is not a good trade.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

This is accurate, and the original comment was being dumb and thinking surface air does not cover the sea. In reality, it covers the entire surface and should be compared to land+ocean. Some people were confused and trying to double-count by adding surface air and sea.

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Where? Link?

0

OmenOfLord

1 month ago

Guys it's leaked. The part 2 questions are leaked, there are insiders on Twitter leaked for us. Don't bet unless you have insiders please

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

I just bought some

0

Nyr11messier - 2170

1 month ago

Is the townhall over yet?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Second half tmrw

0

Nyr11messier - 2170

1 month ago

Is the townhall over yet?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Yes, after a brief refractory period

1

n/a

1 month ago

what is happening? it rises again?

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Agree to disagree

5

Jane.Avenue

1 month ago

Should be ruled inconclusive. It was clear in the rules that it would be based on the video/audio that is aired on September 4th 9-10PM.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Out of cash and want to buy other bonds like box office

0

n/a

1 month ago

Well if anyone wants to sell N shares before they go to zero, I have a sell block at 99.3c / 0.7c

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It's guaranteed lol

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

Bro why you so paniced. Low Liquidity and Low Conviction? Maybe don't bet 500k on a dice roll.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Well if anyone wants to sell N shares before they go to zero, I have a sell block at 99.3c / 0.7c

0

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

n/a

1 month ago

Doubt, just rando

3

n/a

1 month ago

Is this true?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Finally someone who can math. Still seems a bit off tho, as I'd project 97% odds even with just ERA5 data. Not sure how you got 9%.

0

Drunken-Mentat

1 month ago

I seriously doubt the no will win: it makes sense as a low-probability bet, particularly as a reinvestment of previous gains in yes. But it was never too probable (August 23 in gistemp was much colder than the era equivalent, and my own reanalysis gave only 9% for the no for aug 24), but now with the land anomaly for 2024 at 1.62 vs 1.38 in 2023 (easy to calculate with gistemp python package), I would say it's really improbable that the land+sea anomaly would be smaller than that of 2023 (unless the gistemp sea anomaly turns out to be unexpectedly small wrt era5). So most probably "yes".

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Yeah, correct. This is a straightforward market that resolves according to NASA's published value.

0

n/a

1 month ago

Although the whole uma mechanism is sketchy at times, for this market the temperature value is provided by NASA. I don't see how the outcome could be disputed

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Only using ERA5 (was assuming it ends a virtual tie), my ERA-Only estimate a few days ago was 127 +/- 7.

1

n/a

1 month ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Why?

0

PanosMariolis2001

1 month ago

oh you will lose this bet buddy

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

What does this market have to do with UMA? It's straightforward and goes by what NASA publishes on their website.

0

PanosMariolis2001

1 month ago

Serious question , if its actually a win for the no holders , can the uma scam us again and somehow the whales win again? No right???

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

If it remains 119, then the anomaly needs be 120 or higher.

2

SudoWin

1 month ago

What should be the number in the NASA source for this to resolve to "Yes"?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

How would this help change last month's temperature?

0

lil-b

1 month ago

Maybe a scientist can help me - I've been up all night with my icemaker in overdrive - I keep making ice and then throwing it outside, figuring that the cold will help cool the Earth. I know its only a tiny bit but it could come down to that. I think I can feel a slight difference when I go outside. When the ice melts, it releases the stored-up cold out into the environment. Is this a sound strategy?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

NOAA and NASA land pretty close to each other most of the time

0

n/a

1 month ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

That is definitely wrong

0

IWillReturn

1 month ago

Tracking looks good but is getting soft. Seems like a movie that fans will watch but not the general public. ~3.25m in early showings, ~9m previews looks about a right for a total around 80-85m

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

n/a

1 month ago

hi!

0

n/a

1 month ago

aenews betting betting against me damn

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I love you

1

lil-b

1 month ago

There's kind of an X factor at play here, which I dont think anybody has really considered. I have heard from my sources that The Juice is Loose, which may have an impact. Those who are Beetlejuice fans will know that the hype is definitely causing higher body temperatures. However, if my sources are incorrect and the Juice is, in fact, NOT loose, then admittedly I will have made a giant blunder. Just my 2 cents.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

No. Being roughly tied (and it ended up marginally higher, mind you) implies GISS won't be close

0

n/a

1 month ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

The Copernicus data would suggest it won't be close lol

0

n/a

1 month ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

🔥🗻 + ❄🌊 = ?

1

n/a

1 month ago

I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

I'm joking, tbc 😆...

0

n/a

1 month ago

i thought about this also, but i will take the risk xD

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Think about it guys, would NASA want to let the streak end? We need to keep going through the election!

4

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

...what?

0

lil-b

1 month ago

There's kind of an X factor at play here, which I dont think anybody has really considered. I have heard from my sources that The Juice is Loose, which may have an impact. Those who are Beetlejuice fans will know that the hype is definitely causing higher body temperatures. However, if my sources are incorrect and the Juice is, in fact, NOT loose, then admittedly I will have made a giant blunder. Just my 2 cents.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

maybe buy low, sell high?

5

SLEEPYJOE

1 month ago

Uh ok someones trying to dump 100k shares ... which YES holder is nervous they are on the wrong side of the trade?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

?

0

n/a

1 month ago

we can, but we won't unless rigged.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It'll resolve to whatever NASA publishes on their site

1

PanosMariolis2001

1 month ago

I'm new to this market , can they side with the whales once again or is it fixed so the no holders can win too?

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Nice

0

OmenOfLord

1 month ago

I'm just loading up as time goes. Depositing another 2000 once bank is open in the morning.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

That's not me. You are not very smart, are you.

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

We value your insight. I didn't mean to scare you with my comments. But sometimes you gotta get down to there level and punch up. I can see Aenews buying on his BigMike11 burner now panic buying... Stick to the science. I'll take care of the goons.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

nom nom

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

WINDWALKS!!! EAT SHIT AENEWS!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

who are you

0

0x2aB890a2d9e0DA3502a3D84807c0D1b5429D4441-1725290836240

1 month ago

@AENEWS2 Fly to close to the sun and you're gonna get burned bitch! Hope you brought some SPF Faggot!

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

It's tied or marginally higher in ERA5. That implies GISS will be way higher, no?

0

OmenOfLord

1 month ago

https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1830623631757762652/photo/1

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

🔥🔥🔥

0

OmenOfLord

1 month ago

https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1830623631757762652/photo/1

Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

n/a

1 month ago

This bill is incredibly light and has been watered down. Also this doesn't affect anyone except the largest companies in the space lol

3

Justifax

1 month ago

A simple example of how stupid this bill is. Today, if I use a computer to do a cyber attack the person who made the computer is not liable. Now if I use AI which is 1% better than just using the computer, the AI company is liable. That's tots insane.

2024 August hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

@BabyYoda12 It can be sooner than that date

0

husser

1 month ago

When does they publish the nubmers usually?

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

n/a

1 month ago

Might be 600M today too

0

Makoto

1 month ago

599.X without Labor Day ^^

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

n/a

1 month ago

Maybe it's cooked bro! But yeah they are ests.

0

Dropper11

1 month ago

yep. How do they already have today's revenue tho

'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?

n/a

1 month ago

Blah blah blah

0

Guggs

1 month ago

I think the market is significantly overvaluing 'yes'. All the articles so far have just estimated the domestic gross. Or said it hit 600M based on some estimate. The numbers aren't out yet and there is a very small margin over 600m.

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

Irrelevant on the market

1

n/a

1 month ago

ah yes another rigged market on polymarket and if it isn't rigged from the start, uma and polymarket will solve that

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

n/a

1 month ago

See y'all in the next market

0

2024 September hottest on record?

n/a

1 month ago

We care about the anomaly, not temperature

6

Caveman12

1 month ago

September is almost always colder than August, don’t see how this is Yes

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

n/a

1 month ago

Who are you?

0

n/a

1 month ago

Happened AFTER the deadline: "Russian social media channels claim that in the Moscow district of Kapotnya, where the refinery is located, two explosions were heard. According to residents of Kapotnya and nearby districts, one explosion occurred around 7:30 a.m., followed by the sounds of automatic gunfire and a second explosion approximately 10 minutes later." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-assigned-highest-difficulty-level-after-drone-attack-russian-media/ar-AA1pNeWe