Flipadelphia

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

3 months ago

AFD on a clear polling downtrend, CDU on the uptrend. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/

2

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

3 months ago

Interesting stat AFD polling average - 20.3% SPD polling average - 15.5% : AFD 25-30% odds 13c. SPD 20-25% odds 1.8c. Both brackets require 5 pt polling overperformance and yet AFD is worth 700% more?? Some delusional mispricing going on here...

2

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

3 months ago

Call the gambling hotline you bought 25-30 at 28c

4

n/a

3 months ago

AfD at 22% in todays poll

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

3 months ago

Fun fact INSA's final poll has overestimated AFD in the last 4 federal elections and the last three EU elections.

5

n/a

3 months ago

AfD at 22% in todays poll

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Missing some serious fundamentals in the model inputs to come up with such an absurdly high probability. They still gonna win tho.

3

momoracle

4 months ago

Will the CDU/CDU win the German election? Current Probability: 99.94% https://x.com/Momoraclecom/status/1891141570226721072

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

CDU to win the most seats is over 97% on Betfair UK, most statistical models put it close 98/99%+ likelihood. Someone gimme some AFD rationale beyond 'potential migrant attack'', which has consistently shown to have little to no effect already.

5

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Can I hire you as my quant?

6

Machaon

4 months ago

AFD is at 21%, far right is always underestimated in the polls, an attack just happened, 25-30 is undervalued.

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Firstly, you're mitigating risk, but not eliminating it, this is not hedging, but risk distribution within the same outcome category. If you want to truly hedge, you need negatively correlated positions. Secondly, trying to be helpful and yet called 'dumb'. Guess there's a reason i'm only 1.5x your trading volume yet 70x your profit. You are clearly the best trader and have nothing to learn from anyone else it seems.

0

GodfreyofBouillon

4 months ago

New INSA poll puts the AFD at 22%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Brought a whole new level to the meaning of DementiaJoe with this play, Respect the bet what ever happens though

5

Joe-Biden

4 months ago

I'm not too worried, I know that I've never lost anything in my life and that's all that matters!

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

He shouldn't bet his politics, no impartial judge believes he will not act agree to at least a ceasefire if favorable terms which can be justified to the people are possible, this step of course is already 50% complete just by a brief look through Russian state media and financial markets today.

1

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

The way the russian financial markets have moved today might suggest the price should have jumped a little more than 4c

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Sell all at once and crash the price

6

Joe-Biden

4 months ago

It looks like I might be screwed 😰

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Based of his previous comments in this thread, he is betting based off 'Putin bad' rather than any other high iq reason but time will tell

3

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

The way the russian financial markets have moved today might suggest the price should have jumped a little more than 4c

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

The way the russian financial markets have moved today might suggest the price should have jumped a little more than 4c

4

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Considering you are my counter party in the 25-30 bet, which you are down 50% on, I am unsurprised by this mentality. Good luck.

0

GodfreyofBouillon

4 months ago

New INSA poll puts the AFD at 22%

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Similar amount to you it seems, best advice go in big on plays you believe in strongly and also avoid sports/crypto on here unless following a model or just for enjoyment

3

n/a

4 months ago

This is awesome platform. You can take money from the Trump/musk sheeple and laugh at them at the same time 😀

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Purely statistically is not 'a good deal' or a bad one, as it likely aligns with your priors of the original bet it may seem like common sense but really you have just traded ev for cash. Logically speaking 30+ is overpriced, and its almost impossible for AFD but the extra cash is barely worth it.

0

GodfreyofBouillon

4 months ago

New INSA poll puts the AFD at 22%

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

This is a naive assumption 'Nonsensical' bets still have statistical value, you are not gaining any money doing this just trading a lower ev for higher return. Let's say AFD have a major scandal, well 15- is entirely valid. Eventually this strategy could backfire and any cumulative gain you made would be gone.

1

GodfreyofBouillon

4 months ago

New INSA poll puts the AFD at 22%

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Smart money was on Trump and CDU fr

3

n/a

4 months ago

This is awesome platform. You can take money from the Trump/musk sheeple and laugh at them at the same time 😀

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Unfortunately they are rabidly KYC now, I did like them for their high limits on UFC back in the day, their parlays are straight scams though. Nice if you are profitable on them

1

bobtschigerillo999

4 months ago

ok bois, what are we bidding. can somebody explain this "hedging" to me? i heard its guaranteed money? Do i just buy more 25-30% shares or how does this work? Sounds complicated? help??? https://stake.com/sports/home?iid=sport%3A280105300&modal=bet

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Congrats on the win, but the expected value for that parlay is closer to 2.50. As usual sportsbooks ripping off consumers in parlays, you will lose money over time with this strategy.

1

bobtschigerillo999

4 months ago

ok bois, what are we bidding. can somebody explain this "hedging" to me? i heard its guaranteed money? Do i just buy more 25-30% shares or how does this work? Sounds complicated? help??? https://stake.com/sports/home?iid=sport%3A280105300&modal=bet

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

15-20 is not overvalued, 20-25 is a fair price given we are still 2 weeks out, time/uncertainty will always affects price regardless of data

6

vamnizar

4 months ago

fascinating how every single poll in the last weeks showed AfD between 20 and 25, yet it is only at 57%. imo both 15-20 and 25-30 are equally overvalued right now

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Q for Germans, what's the character profile of the average remaining undecided voter at this point?

1

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Labour(centrist left) won in the uk in a landslide, and 'far right' heavily underperformed polling and expectations in french elections. I'm objectively right leaning and just betting data here

0

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Not going too and actually helping him but doxxing is not cool and its probably the one thing poly would take swift action on. Would have been smarter to dox on a new account with no positions.

0

PizzaCat

4 months ago

where do i watch the ceremony?

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Careful poly don't close you out btw, just realised doxxing is in the t&c's

0

PizzaCat

4 months ago

where do i watch the ceremony?

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Chiefs winning ur good, ladyboys back on the menu

1

mostlydavid

4 months ago

im canceling my trip to the philippines

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

A alt from 2022, with 250k+ profit sure thing, nah i'm just interested in poly controversies tbh no bets on this

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Unpopular opinion: Polymarket is the one kind of platform where insider trading should't be banned as pure prediction market it should be a current reflection of any and all information available

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

See above comment, but basically yes

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Looks like the dox was deleted. Idk what to believe

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Unpopular opinion: Polymarket is the one kind of platform where insider trading should't be banned as pure prediction market it should be a current reflection of any and all information available

9

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Goes against the idea of Poly IMO, obvs against insider trading in a business context

1

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Looks like the dox was deleted. Idk what to believe

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Looks like the dox was deleted. Idk what to believe

0

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Respect the honesty

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Doxxing is too far, I know for a fact 99% of the traders with any insider info would do exactly that same shit. Take the L, learn from it and move on

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

he is but would you do the same...? Or is this just convenient morality

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Doxxing is too far, I know for a fact 99% of the traders with any insider info would do exactly that same shit. Take the L, learn from it and move on

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Imagine Lamar won and this dude got doxxed over nothing. Would be funny ngl

3

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Doxxing is too far, I know for a fact 99% of the traders with any insider info would do exactly that same shit. Take the L, learn from it and move on

1

NFL MVP

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Josh Allen MVP leaked. Joever.

2

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Overperforming his polling not the actual result to be specific, 2020 polling had the largest underestimate % of his 3 elections

1

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Possibly but that would only be worth 10-15% for 25-30. Personally I also expect them to underperform poll by 0.5-1%. If i start seeing INSA, Allenbach with afd at 25/26 then i'm concerned

1

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

By this hypothesis we would have expected AFD to overperform polls in 2021 similar to how Trump has overperformed everytime in '16,20, and '24. Hidden AFD voter to justify huge polling overperformance is a false narrative and easily disprovable. If they are polling near 24% by 23rd then obviously your bet has a good chance but if closer to 21% highly unlikely.

3

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

France and the UK... i'll wait

2

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Changed yes, but I do not agree that it is more 'shameful' to be an afd supporter now than in 2021, in fact it is more acceptable than it has ever been

4

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

And yet they they underperformed polls in 2021, was it not a 'shameful' vote in 2021?

2

FUENTES

4 months ago

the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Personally i won't be touching the coalition markets given the information asymmetry but I agree its entirely possible CDU finish in the 25-30 bracket though the overarching point is that the electorate, unlike in 2021, knows that the CDU will be part of a governing coalition regardless of their final %, hence it serves better to monitor the results of these smaller parties to determine the final coalition

1

bobtschigerillo999

4 months ago

A bet on 25-30% is simply a bet on the CDU repeating what they repeated in 2021. Losing a double digit lead 100 meters before the finish line. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Opinion_polls_Germany_2021.svg/1000px-Opinion_polls_Germany_2021.svg.png

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

CDU are largely irrelevant in this discussion as they will be in the governing majority regardless of final %, AFD have a hard ceiling of roughly 23/24% in the german electorate and they have never polled higher historically. Disproportionate AFD turnout is the only way they can break 25%

4

bobtschigerillo999

4 months ago

A bet on 25-30% is simply a bet on the CDU repeating what they repeated in 2021. Losing a double digit lead 100 meters before the finish line. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Opinion_polls_Germany_2021.svg/1000px-Opinion_polls_Germany_2021.svg.png

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Respect for the honesty, turnout differential is actually probably the best argument for afd 25%+ but ironically this is less likely with a higher overall turnout, what you need is disproportionate low propensity/low education electorate similar to a EU election, but of course the is virtually impossible in a general election such as this. Good luck regardless.

1

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Another day another poll with AFD at 20%. Yawn, this German polling is too predictable and reliable, give me an Selzer poll already

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

People blindly betting on a hypothesised polling error rather than reality

1

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Another day another poll with AFD at 20%. Yawn, this German polling is too predictable and reliable, give me an Selzer poll already

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Unless you are saying this stigma is new, a brief historical analysis shows AFD have consistently been accurately polled nationally even overestimated by 1-2%. Adding 10% arbitrarily is delusion at its finest.

4

ArbitrageTrader33

4 months ago

Interestingly, in a poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 17 percent said they'd vote AfD, but the projection added just 4%, even though AfD voters often hide their preferences due to social stigma, getting to 21. I think that’s too low, they should’ve added 11-14, putting AfD closer to 28-31.

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Take a break and chill or Buy AFD 30%+ Yes shares asap and come back in 20 days for your free money

1

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Another day another poll with AFD at 20%. Yawn, this German polling is too predictable and reliable, give me an Selzer poll already

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Another day another poll with AFD at 20%. Yawn, this German polling is too predictable and reliable, give me an Selzer poll already

7

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

A reminder that if you had a pet monkey buying Yes on any vaguely trump affiliated market it would outperform 99% of Traders on this platform. GG Tulsi, copytraders hit hardest

5

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Good luck, you are a little obnoxious but at least you back up your positions with your money which I respect

2

Mauz

4 months ago

Ugur pls fill @ 48c

AfD % of vote in German Election?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Got 75k shares 25-30 AFD no at 70 sitting on the order book if interested...

2

Mauz

4 months ago

Ugur pls fill @ 48c

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Im getting the sense he thinks he's the Fredi9999 of the german election but we'll see how it plays out

4

keribit

4 months ago

It's a pleasure being your counterparty @Porternemertine , if you would like to increase your position just comment and I'm sure we'll all be happy to add more liquidity for you

Germany Parliamentary Election Winner

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Some interesting market movements this morning... I thought I'd be paying 90%+ for CDU yes and AFD no but not complaining

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Damn we got the same volume traded but our profits are a little different, what's the secret?

3

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Idk what the move is on Tulsi and RFK, blindly betting yes on everything Trump related has been extremely profitable over the past year but logically one of them will go down.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Idk what the move is on Tulsi and RFK, blindly betting yes on everything Trump related has been extremely profitable over the past year but logically one of them will go down.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Average tulsi yes holder :)

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

People talking about collins but committee votes don't even matter, they vote on a recommendation to the senate and cannot block or alter the nomination process. See nomination of Clarence Thomas' 7-7 committee vote followed by 52-48 confirmation.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

Blatantly incorrect, see John Tower's nomination in 1989 , he received a floor vote after losing the committee vote and them attempting to block him, albeit he lost the floor votes 47-53

0

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

People talking about collins but committee votes don't even matter, they vote on a recommendation to the senate and cannot block or alter the nomination process. See nomination of Clarence Thomas' 7-7 committee vote followed by 52-48 confirmation.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

People talking about collins but committee votes don't even matter, they vote on a recommendation to the senate and cannot block or alter the nomination process. See nomination of Clarence Thomas' 7-7 committee vote followed by 52-48 confirmation.

2

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

gg

4

College Football Champion 2025

Flipadelphia

4 months ago

GG buckeyes

0

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

5 months ago

Pete has the votes to be confirmed - John Thune Senate Majority leader

0

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Flipadelphia

5 months ago

GG

2

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

The lack of awareness in your original comment shows you shouldn't have any more than $10 on here. Good luck.

1

Will143

6 months ago

what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

'Wow. I didn't know that. You're telling me for the first time.'

0

Will143

6 months ago

what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

If a nominee gets to a hearing they virtually always get confirmed. Chances are much higher in a 53 seat GOP and with Trump/social media.

1

Will143

6 months ago

what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

It seems many here underestimated the resilience of a Veteran. It was always Pete.

1

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Hegseth to overtake Desantis by the end of the week would be a 99c market

0

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Respectfully this is a very 2d way of viewing the dynamics at play here. All I would say is your upside is pretty limited at 83c no given the volatility we are about to get (even if it wins).

2

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Hegseth surviving the next 48 hrs are critical, he'll either 4x or crash to 1c. The dynamics at play are very different than Gaetz so I'm holding for the ride.

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Hegseth surviving the next 48 hrs are critical, he'll either 4x or crash to 1c. The dynamics at play are very different than Gaetz so I'm holding for the ride.

4

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Correct it simply hardens partisan lines, which incidentally increases the likelihood of a confirmation/appointment.

1

IllegalAlien👽

6 months ago

CNN fucking with mah boi Pete gonna cost me $23 get your hands off him you damn dirty apes

Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

Pete seems to have been lucky the story dropped at the same time as the biden pardon story. No mention of it all morning on cnn/msnbc. This will be back to 60/40 by the end of the week

3

IllegalAlien👽

6 months ago

CNN fucking with mah boi Pete gonna cost me $23 get your hands off him you damn dirty apes

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Flipadelphia

6 months ago

It was always Gaetz no

2

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Compare to 2022, NE passed law changing election procedures in 2021, also why did you sell 500 no shares 2 days ago if you are so sure of your math?

0

Bryan1316

7 months ago

Lol you guys also forgot about Write in votes, which will be added on the 21st. Any write in votes will make the winning margin of the winning candidate decrease, no matter what. In 2020, it decrease the margin by 0.093%

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Statistically speaking that is a fair 5-10% given the small margins we are talking about. But you do realize you can just ring the Nebraska SoS office who will tell you the remaining ballots instead of this napkin math based off nyt estimates from 8 days ago right?

0

Bryan1316

7 months ago

Lol you guys also forgot about Write in votes, which will be added on the 21st. Any write in votes will make the winning margin of the winning candidate decrease, no matter what. In 2020, it decrease the margin by 0.093%

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Respectfully, I'm genuinely surprised you are a profitable account. But maybe you are just trying to pump to get a better sell position? Anyway about 90% of the stuf you have espoused is blatantly wrong. If no wins it will be because of a reporting error that is updated when the final tally is certified on the 25th. Good luck.

0

Bryan1316

7 months ago

Lol you guys also forgot about Write in votes, which will be added on the 21st. Any write in votes will make the winning margin of the winning candidate decrease, no matter what. In 2020, it decrease the margin by 0.093%

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

The best case for no, well its literally an error caught when counties certify on the 25th

1

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Stop using county maps as evidence of vote remaining. All that is left to be counted are provisionals, mostly those who forgot ID on election day, these will remain largely uncured and unlikely to have any particular partisan lean.

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

There may be a very small amount of UOCOVA ballots to tabulate but otherwise we are talking about the expected vote change being essentially zero between now and certification.

1

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Stop using county maps as evidence of vote remaining. All that is left to be counted are provisionals, mostly those who forgot ID on election day, these will remain largely uncured and unlikely to have any particular partisan lean.

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Stop using county maps as evidence of vote remaining. All that is left to be counted are provisionals, mostly those who forgot ID on election day, these will remain largely uncured and unlikely to have any particular partisan lean.

1

IA-01 election: Bohannan (D) vs. Miller-Meeks (R)

Flipadelphia

7 months ago

Miller meeks winning by 10 votes again is hilarious to me

0