Rueben

Will Trump use a recess appointment for Matt Gaetz?

Rueben

3 months ago

@Axios u on discord?

0

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rueben

5 months ago

Nobody knows

0

Abc00

5 months ago

When does trading stop?

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rueben

6 months ago

replied

0

Zach21z

6 months ago

Clearly its a no. Basically a 0.5% chance this happens if you calculate it

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rueben

6 months ago

I assume you multiplied the odds of each state. But the odds are correlated, not independent. Say we have 2 coinflips, First 1 is tails. Do you have any advantage on knowing what coinflip #2 will be? Say the odds for Michigan and Pennsylvania are both 50/50 right now for simplicity's sake. If Harris wins Pennsylvania 90% to 10%, would you still be willing to bet even money Trump wins Michigan?

4

Zach21z

6 months ago

Clearly its a no. Basically a 0.5% chance this happens if you calculate it

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rueben

6 months ago

That's not how the math works.

5

Zach21z

6 months ago

Clearly its a no. Basically a 0.5% chance this happens if you calculate it

Israel military response against Iran in October?

Rueben

6 months ago

thats not me

1

Freddy

6 months ago

Part of me wants to say thx for the liquidity, and the other part wants to say best of luck to both of us broski

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Rueben

6 months ago

Kevin is Satoshi

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

Good Evening Frens. Lots of disagreement and fighting. Lets just remember, no matter what happens, these truths we hold to be self-evident: if your side loses this was rigged and if your side wins you are a scammer.

17

·

Liked by n/a, Car and 15 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

My man, .10c a share underwater is pretty good for you! GL

3

dancer

6 months ago

oh my GOD, how did 50-penis mark the local top yet AGAIN??? Quick, 50-penis, buy some Yes shares!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

The Ayes have it

13

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

i did, but just cause that is where the price is. I havent really thought about what I think the odds the are, so do not take my statement as trading advice.

2

BibiNetanCocksucker

6 months ago

50 pence did you just say 50-50?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

As Honorary Chairman of the 50/50 Committee, i hereby declare this market 50/50

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

It's not a scam, many fine long-time whales on both sides. Definetly feels like a scam though.

0

Mountainman

6 months ago

You're part of the scam in this market and many others. 0 Respect. Robbing people on rigged bets. Disgusting thief.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

What you learn in October can serve as evidence for what you should have bet on in September.

2

WhaleHunter

6 months ago

What happened in October cannot serve as evidence for September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

Im told Polymarket and Uma have decided to resolve this to the side that reaches 99.9c first.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

The 50/50 Committee is calling an emergency meeting as we speak.

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of Noobs.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

i agree with you, makes a mockery of the whole market to resolve to no

3

McLarry

6 months ago

Israel prepares for war for almost two weeks, calls up reservists, moves tanks and other weapons of war to the border with Lebanon. No-holders: lol nothing ever happens, they can't do that. Israel invades Lebanon. No-holder: Fuck off we won the bet

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

no bots

1

moneysniper

6 months ago

I think i deserve a tip of your bot money @50-pence 😉

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

Not making fun of losing, just the still arguing it at this point crew.

1

OhNos

6 months ago

I mean it is what it is you win some you lose some, but you live to fight another day :), GG

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

People in here still arguing no like those japanese troops hiding in the mountains still waiting for the war.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Rueben

6 months ago

Never fade lucky shakshuka lunch

6

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Rueben

6 months ago

Convert is only on desktop, and is visible in the Positions tab for an individual bracket.

2

Rueben

6 months ago

it does not autocredit the negrisk like pi. However, you can convert no shares and it will give you YES shares in all the other brackets, which you can then limit sell (which is effectively bidding for buy No''s)

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Rueben

6 months ago

it does not autocredit the negrisk like pi. However, you can convert no shares and it will give you YES shares in all the other brackets, which you can then limit sell (which is effectively bidding for buy No''s)

1

DFK

6 months ago

Question: if I bet NO on several options do I need to have the cash or does it calculate the risk allowing you to bet more (based on excluding probs - there can be only one YES - just like on PredicIt)?

Trump fires campaign manager?

Rueben

6 months ago

https://discord.gg/SuDjKbcw

0

HLB

6 months ago

Thanks! Good to see you too. Sure, I’ll take it!

Trump fires campaign manager?

Rueben

6 months ago

Good to see ya! You comin' home for the Holiday (eday)? Need the discord link?

0

HLB

6 months ago

yessir

Trump fires campaign manager?

Rueben

6 months ago

@HLB That you Harry Legs?

0

Diddy released from custody by Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

Awfully confident considering the appeal is being heard today.

3

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rueben

7 months ago

Trump becomes WH Janitor

1

habit

7 months ago

what does "sweep" means?

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Rueben

7 months ago

Crackhead references crack the drug. Crackshot does not reference the drug.

1

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

Rueben

7 months ago

pretty sure thats fox, not AP

1

CansGonzalez

7 months ago

There is 0% chance she will be able to pull any of those things off, so I wouldn't worry. Word from her campaign is, she doesn't even know all of her campaign's new policy positions and "vigorously going through her stack of binders" (AP). She's not charismatic, not quick-on-her-feet and can't defend the economy the last 3.5 years. I'm telling you, she has too much to lose showing up Tuesday vs getting sick with Covid. Not worried at all.

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

Are you not entertained?

26

·

Liked by Apsalar, 0xE42c9d2e... and 24 others

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

i objet

0

0xE42c9d2ef

7 months ago

pumpers are going full retard. never go full retard

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

Im just shitposting, i dont have capital to pump Kamala that high. Trump Yes holders can make this market happen a lot easier than Kam Y baghodlers

1

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Ofcourse @50-Pence, how much you thinking? whole account for 3-4 hours?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

lol, appreciate the offer. I just closed my big no and took a lark on someone else going psycho.

1

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Ofcourse @50-Pence, how much you thinking? whole account for 3-4 hours?

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

can i get a loan to buy Kamala Potus?

1

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Now that im out, max chaos please, want to see lawsuits and everything

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

We ride at High Noon

13

·

Liked by HaterzLose..., mango-lass... and 11 others

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Rueben

7 months ago

Who's wasting $3,000 to try to prove the things we saw fly into a buildings didn't actually fly into a building? Russians weren't shooting down shit, sounds like small arms fire, nary a brrrrt to be heard.

2

X banned in Brazil by Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

Pm is 23:59

0

n/a

7 months ago

You should give our money back time pass and answer was no. Dispute it

X banned in Brazil by Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

oops wrong chat

2

Rueben

7 months ago

We switch to No at .03c, right?

X banned in Brazil by Friday?

Rueben

7 months ago

We switch to No at .03c, right?

5

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

Rueben

7 months ago

I didnt know there is a report button. Have to be a good boy from now on.

0

Eridpnc

7 months ago

I saw that 50p. Undelete that comment.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

Rueben

7 months ago

English teacher she

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

Rueben

7 months ago

He was driven to court in the back of a cop car

1

godmode9999

7 months ago

custody and jail is different. released from custody to appear in court is still released from custody

Pavel Durov released in August?

Rueben

7 months ago

goddamn some of you idiots bet a lot on this

8

Pavel Durov released in August?

Rueben

7 months ago

they can still release him later by placing him on house arrest.

2

tsybka

7 months ago

why did you sell shares? 🤡

Pavel Durov released in August?

Rueben

7 months ago

Being driven to court in a police car to be indicted is clearly not being released.

7

Pavel Durov released in August?

Rueben

7 months ago

Can you indict a ham croissant?

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

Rueben

7 months ago

However, endorsements directly before or after the address will not qualify alone - he must mention his support of Trump during the address.

0

5to5000

7 months ago

Bernie Sanders: "I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that Kamala Harris is the next president of the United States... and I'll be going around the country to try to rally support for the vice president.Of course I support the vice president." This resolved to NO on will Bernie endorse Kamala btw

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

Rueben

7 months ago

TMZ basically runs White House Correspondents Assoc.

2

McLarry

7 months ago

how trustworthy is “TMZ”? do they often talk shit or why does no pump?

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Rueben

8 months ago

I did not make a single serious comment in the Uma Chat

0

Apsalar

8 months ago

scam squad might just pull this off

Democratic VP nominee?

Rueben

8 months ago

Breshear in the house, er observatory... https://twitter.com/howardmortman/status/1820208740483690620?s=61&t=MuvRTnHmV56Xnhbo5lyQXw

2

Democratic VP nominee?

Rueben

8 months ago

Biden intros Harris (CA): DE -- Trump intros Pence (IN): NY --- Hillary intros Kaine (VA): FL --- Romney intros Ryan (WI): VA --- McCain intros Palin (AK): OH --- Obama intros Biden (DE): IL --- Kerry intros Edwards (NC): P

3

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Rueben

8 months ago

If they fight through 12.31 it resolves to Other

2

n/a

8 months ago

What would it resolve to in this case?

Biden drops out by July 4?

Rueben

10 months ago

He will drop out before the debate and yes bettors will get cucked.

0

VibesGreaterRules

10 months ago

If he walks on to the stage without falling, time to PANIC SELL YOUR PATHETIC YES SHARES.

Supreme Court unanimous vote in Trump immunity case?

Rueben

10 months ago

Thats just your opinion

0

Itsme

10 months ago

The Supreme Court does not issue verdicts. So this is impossible according the to the rules. The only way to get a yes is if they issue a verdict, which they do not do. They issue opinions. Also, putting that point to the side, if they agree that there is immunity, the case will be remanded because the lower court said there was no immunity. This case must be remanded if there is immunity. That is how the court system works. These rules just make no sense with how the court actually operates.

Republican VP nominee?

Rueben

10 months ago

DO IT. (dont do it)

0

Smokey-Joe

10 months ago

You sure? More fun to take Tucker to 30c

Republican VP nominee?

Rueben

10 months ago

@smokeyjoe pls pump Stefanik next. TY

2

Republican VP nominee?

Rueben

10 months ago

Sahil is Sanskrit for Smokey-Joe

1

Trump found guilty in hush money case?

Rueben

10 months ago

Poor Relay / LondonDruggist

4

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Rueben

10 months ago

what does her Twitter account have to do with anything?

0

SusanWarren,HR

10 months ago

So.... Caitlyn Jenner's twitter was not hacked?

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

Rueben

10 months ago

The real scam were the "friends" we made along the way.

5

Will RFK Jr. announce Libertarian Party bid?

Rueben

10 months ago

Poor liddle Relay

2

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

Rueben

10 months ago

Answer is pretty clear given we're even having this argument. The endorsement was not explicit : "expressed without vagueness, implication, or ambiguity : leaving no question as to meaning or intent."

2

Dutch government formed before June?

Rueben

11 months ago

Those are leaders of the Parliamentary parties. None of them will be part of the government as the intent is to have a cabinet of ministers with no members of parliament. The Government of Holland, under Art 42.2 of the Constitution is: "1. The Government shall comprise the King and the Ministers.

0

Car

11 months ago

@50-Pence who do you think these people are? do a guess

Israel military action against Iran by April 15?

Rueben

1 year ago

Where did that comment go?

0

Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?

Rueben

1 year ago

Ukraine has not taken credit, so the answer is no unless Ukraine admits it. You should sell your shares.

0

no-valuebetting2

1 year ago

The Security Council of the Russian Federation is not the government considered in the polymarket?

Boeing emergency landing by next Friday?

Rueben

1 year ago

The flaps were stuck.

0

Anon5566

1 year ago

This was pilot error. Flap overspeed refers to a condition in aviation where the aircraft's speed exceeds the maximum safe speed for the flaps to be extended

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

Rueben

1 year ago

You bought the wrong answer after they already posted the answer. We can see your transactions.

0

JoKo125

1 year ago

This is just wrong, I’m new here and clearly put to much faith in ‘poly market’. I figured the title of ‘Shutdown’ should override fine print added later on. No longer trust this site.

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

Rueben

1 year ago

Funding expires at midnight. From midnight to 11:50 am there was no enacted funding.

1

Eloy2401

1 year ago

Published on Saturday, 11:50 AM ET. So 10 minutes before the market deadline, which is indicated in the rules. Also keep in mind that if it was published at that time, Biden had to sign the bill earlier. So market has to resolve to NO. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4520284-biden-signs-government-funding-bills-avert-partial-shutdown/

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

Rueben

1 year ago

The issue is if he signed before midnight. Funding lapses at midnight without an enacted appropriations bill

1

IDeclareBankruptcyyy

1 year ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4520284-biden-signs-government-funding-bills-avert-partial-shutdown/ the rules say 12 PM. This is a new article published at 11:50 AM that says that Biden signs government funding bills to avoid partial shutdown

First place in California Senate Primary?

Rueben

1 year ago

Blanket Jackson is ineligible, you have to be 35 to run.

1

Caution

1 year ago

Only 1 primary for the senate? It is on March 5th.

'Dune: Part Two' Opening Weekend Box Office

Rueben

1 year ago

Let him cook

2

lently(10)

1 year ago

It's based on a specific number from the "Domestic Weekend" tab on boxoffice mojo. Even if you think there is unclear language elsewhere in the rules, you can't just ignore the parts of the rules you dislike.

Tucker Carlson + Putin interview released by Friday?

Rueben

1 year ago

My 24,000 39's needed some frens

0

CrownPrince

1 year ago

dang you got those 95.5's. quick sly dog

Tucker Carlson + Putin interview released by Friday?

Rueben

1 year ago

Ctrl+P

0

US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?

Rueben

1 year ago

My lucky charm is here

0