#96
Rank
276
Comments
140
Likes Received
500
Likes Given
kekkone
2 months ago
Wow
andrein
2 months ago
Wow he's surely getting banned, BEC will never let him run again. BEC is made mainly out of PNL-PSD judges
kekkone
2 months ago
But that doesn’t rhyme
Mun-Yun-Han
2 months ago
Trump, Yoon Suk-yeol, Kim Jong-un, and Putin will meet.
kekkone
2 months ago
And then they’ll lick each others’ feet.
Mun-Yun-Han
2 months ago
Trump, Yoon Suk-yeol, Kim Jong-un, and Putin will meet.
kekkone
2 months ago
should i sell??!
Mun-Yun-Han
2 months ago
YEA, the unity of the supporters has collapsed. They seem to be hurriedly running away, watching each other cautiously.
kekkone
2 months ago
mysteries of prediction markets
nicktsai
2 months ago
why no one propose yet
kekkone
2 months ago
i'm still in the holding hands stage
nicktsai
2 months ago
why no one propose yet
kekkone
2 months ago
Propose and prepare for a UMA fight
SexyEagle
2 months ago
Someone needs to resolve bill clinton, bill clinton is in the file under "Doug Bands" his office is mentioned wich contains his name, "Office of William J. Clinton" which is a name mention, now heres where it gets complicated, in the book released on the 27th, it is redacted. In the leaked version of this book, which in polymarkets additional context said was the same document, and you can also tell same name order etc, the redacted space is the same length etc, via "Despite having previously been leaked by Gawker, the “Contact Book” was a sealed document, and therefore qualifies for this market. Thus this market should resolve “Yes”." they clarify it as being the same document the "Contact Book" and acknowledge the leaked one is the same, there for bill clinton should be resolved as yes
kekkone
2 months ago
the information wasn't released by the Trump Administration, check the rules.
n/a
2 months ago
Why is Hawking dropping, he es on the List?
kekkone
2 months ago
you can go ahead and correct the price to what you think it should be.
n/a
2 months ago
Why is Hawking dropping, he es on the List?
kekkone
2 months ago
Never said it wouldn't happen. Just bet on it and lost. Well played BB!
BussyBlaster
2 months ago
+524% on DJT - kek and you gigaclowns said it wouldn't happen. thanks for the money
kekkone
2 months ago
https://epsteinsblackbook.com/black-book-images/4.jpg Am I though?
kekkone
2 months ago
Page 4: "Office of William J Clinton" and "Clinton's scheduler"
kekkone
2 months ago
Page 4: "Office of William J Clinton" and "Clinton's scheduler"
kekkone
2 months ago
it's a glitch, buy more
knock
2 months ago
The fuck happened to Andrew?
kekkone
2 months ago
alpha
bmllz
2 months ago
what we think about hawking?
kekkone
2 months ago
link please
tsybka
2 months ago
Ukrainian government will review the text of the agreement on minerals today, - Shmyhal. "As of today, this agreement is called the 'Agreement on Establishing the Rules and Conditions of the Investment Fund for Ukraine's Recovery.' Essentially, it is a preliminary agreement that provides for legal action. This is the future creation of an investment fund for Ukraine's recovery, where Ukraine and the US will jointly manage and fund this fund on equal terms," the Prime Minister was quoted by "RBC-Ukraine." Shmyhal also noted that Ukraine will not sign an agreement with the US without security guarantees.
kekkone
2 months ago
Yeah there’s some sort of a chance REEs aren’t mentioned explicitly. Could be a good lotto.
WitchDoctor
2 months ago
Offering free vocabulary lessons for the apes on here. "Explicit" antonym is "implicit" https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/explicit, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/implicit
kekkone
2 months ago
I see a majority
Nyarlatotep
2 months ago
There has never been a minority coalition at the federal level in Germany.
kekkone
3 months ago
100 days from Inauguration but before that would’ve qualified too.
GNS
3 months ago
Why is it 100 days when the dates in the rules are 131 days?
kekkone
3 months ago
Genius
ShaunEC
3 months ago
i think trump is gearing up to attack Iran on saturday when iran doesnt release the hostages as per his campaign promise, and he cant do that while still at war with russia. Ukraine war ends, Iran war starts this week.
kekkone
3 months ago
Who knows. Try it!
dealhunter
3 months ago
big wall at 27 cents? do you think its worth it?
kekkone
3 months ago
Good for you! :)
kekkone
3 months ago
GG Ugur hope you can offset those L’s with your crypto business.
kekkone
3 months ago
Oh and hey. You’re the one who provided me exit liquidity from a losing bet by selling at a loss. Lol. Good times.
kekkone
3 months ago
GG Ugur hope you can offset those L’s with your crypto business.
kekkone
3 months ago
Oblivious to his presumably high net worth?
kekkone
3 months ago
GG Ugur hope you can offset those L’s with your crypto business.
kekkone
3 months ago
GG Ugur hope you can offset those L’s with your crypto business.
kekkone
3 months ago
thanks mate
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
kekkone
3 months ago
Allensbach wen?
kekkone
3 months ago
which year?
Betwick
3 months ago
At current pace, these guys are gonna be sitting down for a nice Christmas dinner together
kekkone
3 months ago
Have you considered betting?
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Dang 25-30 and over 30 super overvalued due to alt right fans that are Elon musk fans
kekkone
3 months ago
thanks for the info on the next Allensbach poll
Cisomate2901
3 months ago
According to Politico Berlin Playbook Podcast today Allensbach will publish a new poll on Friday. CDU will be probably unchanged or only with marginal adjsutments to last poll (34%). They also state that Allensbach had the closest prediction before the 2021 election
kekkone
3 months ago
not disagreeing here. just pointed out an important detail.
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
i mean, this could still be a YES but the fair value is adjusted by quite a bit by a detail most people don't pay attention to
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
Wrong. Rare earths are 17 specific metals. No matter what word comes after.
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
not very German to buy first and do research later, oder?
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
Good, you're getting there. Now search for the density of the deposits west of Dnipro.
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
Ukraine's REE deposits are 90% under Russian control. That's why Zelensky is so eager in talking about them. Ukraine does have other useful minerals too but they aren't specifically rare earths.
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
seems like you're not very knowledgeable in this yet you blew thousands on this market
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
Sure. I'm on NO mainly because any deal would need to explicitly involve REEs. "minerals" or even "critical minerals" simply won't cut.
Exeggut
3 months ago
So trump wanted resources, Zelensky agreed to the offer, now it’s been confirmed that Trumps team will soon meet to talk about the deal, Trump wants minerals, Zelensky wants (any) aid, if they agree upon the meeting for anything to trade the minerals with this market will resolve to yes.
kekkone
3 months ago
one rice kebab coming right up
endo2
3 months ago
rise kebab rise 🥙🐪🕌
kekkone
3 months ago
US presidents attend APEC less than 75% of the time. I’m here for time decay. Hope we both bank!
iamhungry
3 months ago
Trump will go to South Korea for the APEC 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_South_Korea_2025
kekkone
3 months ago
Looks like Germany has its own Gizmodude.
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Also tbh new insa poll came out today it’s bad for afd no change after this shitshow 30-22 but union did gain one point back so i was right that this event actually benefited the union over afd
kekkone
3 months ago
yes, we both know you won't get the liquidity to exit even if you wanted. but respect for betting on your beliefs!
kekkone
3 months ago
ugur bu bir shitcoin degil
kekkone
3 months ago
I am. But I can't counter the 90k USDC you most likely plan to slam on this market.
kekkone
3 months ago
ugur bu bir shitcoin degil
kekkone
3 months ago
ugur bu bir shitcoin degil
kekkone
3 months ago
25c is cheap for him just sending Vance.
iamhungry
3 months ago
Trump will go to South Korea for the APEC 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_South_Korea_2025
kekkone
3 months ago
He's invited, sure. He'll make the decision in September or October. Maybe.
iamhungry
3 months ago
Trump will go to South Korea for the APEC 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_South_Korea_2025
kekkone
3 months ago
Be kind, we all are fighting our own battles.
Intendant-Jean-Talon
3 months ago
This battle is on track to be the longest battle on the European continent. Verdun last 10 months and this one is at 6 currently and Russia in not yet in the town and have surrounded about 30%. They are going nowhere
kekkone
3 months ago
Makes no difference how they gain control.
randomWalkingShrimp
3 months ago
What if Russians gain control over Pokrovsk through peace deal?
kekkone
3 months ago
turns out this is exactly what happened. I'm glad I exited with profit earlier. GG
kekkone
5 months ago
They'll run out of minutes soon if they'll frontrun doom every year. There's an end in sight in all the major conflicts and at least some sort of a deal was scraped up at Baku. No is absolutely not certain but undervalued.
kekkone
3 months ago
Holy shit, someone's banging the order book like a KGB handler.
kekkone
3 months ago
Not really liking at that price though.
tallboy6
3 months ago
Canada is an easy win cause the G7 leaders summit is held there this year
kekkone
4 months ago
Stop making quotes up and bet more.
TACC
4 months ago
Trump Announces Plans to Meet with Putin Soon :- Donald Trump, the newly elected President of the United States, announced his intention to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, within the next three months. According to CNN, Trump made this statement to journalists after his inauguration. “We will try to do this within the next three months. You know, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia never should have started,” said the U.S. President. On the eve of the inauguration, Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on becoming the President of the United States. The Russian President noted Trump's desire to prevent a third world war. Putin also expressed readiness to resume dialogue with Washington, including on the "Ukrainian crisis." “We see the statements of the newly elected U.S. President about the desire to restore direct contacts with Russia and the need to do everything possible to prevent a third world war. Certainly, we welcome this attitude and congratulate the elected President of the United States on his inauguration,” said Vladimir Putin before a meeting of the Security Council.
kekkone
4 months ago
She’ll have to study in a Czech state university 😥
denizz
4 months ago
I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.
kekkone
4 months ago
he's out till july then back in. got it. all hail the king!
EmPo27
4 months ago
guys i think starmer is out till july. Because after the us election every big country like germany, soon in france and of course in britain will be a new election too. Trust King Elon!
kekkone
4 months ago
Bolsonaro wants to go 😪
kekkone
4 months ago
Yes. You should’ve done so on several occasions.
jayjasonjaydediday
4 months ago
Sometimes you just need to sit and follow
kekkone
4 months ago
Harris will simply not count. He'll need to say her first name.
Sigma100
4 months ago
Its very rare presidents mention their opponents in their inauguration speech. Also he didn't mention Hillary. This should be free money.
kekkone
4 months ago
Looking for some entry liquidity i see
emaminek
4 months ago
tricky situation for Farage right now. Not resigning might alienate reform uk from musk's influence. We will see though
kekkone
4 months ago
Hey look a death market
kekkone
4 months ago
What an amazing detachment from reality.
n/a
4 months ago
So, what is known so far from the secret negotiations that took place in the United States. A source from the White House: 1) Ukraine will be accepted into NATO in January, and a little later into the European Union. 2) Nuclear weapons will be deployed on Ukrainian territory, completely under Kiev's control. 3) A military contingent of 100,000 NATO soldiers will be deployed on Ukrainian territory. 4) Russia was given an ultimatum, since Ukraine will become a nuclear power in a few days. 5) Russia agreed to capitulate while preserving the territories of the DPR, LPR and Crimea for the next 20 years. The Russian Federation will leave the Kherson region. 6) Ukraine will continue to transit Russian gas through its territory. 7) The fire on both sides must cease immediately.
kekkone
4 months ago
Sure did. Buy more, so cheap.
Edenze
4 months ago
It happened TODAY
kekkone
5 months ago
Masterful trading sir
wyn
5 months ago
https://x.com/junogsp7/status/1858549367881576812?s=46
kekkone
5 months ago
Yeah. Strikes against Houthis in Yemen?
0x5C7Af7bFD94cb9dAEbdE66Ed922a34d68949Ee20
5 months ago
As an Israeli, I know what's coming tomorrow - "Netanyahu testimony canceled for tomorrow due to ‘special circumstances’"
kekkone
5 months ago
Holy shit they’re doing it aren’t they
kekkone
5 months ago
Tartous is probably for sale or rent. Kherson isn’t.
kekkone
5 months ago
Russia wants a deal on the Tartous naval base with the new adminstration.
kekkone
5 months ago
Russia wants a deal on the Tartous naval base with the new adminstration.
kekkone
5 months ago
and they're still an absolute bargain with all the possible outcomes they represent
calingeorgescu
5 months ago
what a wild and strange trip ciolakul had
kekkone
5 months ago
what a wild and strange trip your shares had. they've stood for so many different outcomes so far :D
calingeorgescu
5 months ago
what a wild and strange trip ciolakul had
kekkone
5 months ago
reverse TDS is a thing, it seems
emaminek
5 months ago
the whole peace talks rely on Ukraine joining nato, russia doesn't want Ukraine to join nato. Simple as
kekkone
5 months ago
wouldn't blame him for taking profit, it was a good trade.
kekkone
5 months ago
They’re not even talking.
kekkone
5 months ago
Russian and Ukrainian positions are as far apart as possible. The only way to make peace before Jan 20th is to coerce Ukraine to surrender. Biden's not doing that. Trump might, but that's another timeline.
kekkone
5 months ago
They’re not even talking.
kekkone
5 months ago
Whoa Alexej, mind your blood pressure.
kekkone
5 months ago
They’re not even talking.
kekkone
5 months ago
They’re not even talking.
kekkone
5 months ago
The SAA has a chance to fortify the coastal mountain range and keep control of Tartus and Latakia even if Damascus falls.
kekkone
5 months ago
And if he resigns first?
kekkone
5 months ago
Can you do that again please Steve?
kekkone
5 months ago
definitely buy more guy.
n/a
5 months ago
The old bundestag will stay till the new bundestag will be voted and this will be in february 2025 so you guys are stupid thinking germany will dissolve the bundestag before a new one will be voted
kekkone
5 months ago
Time to cash out, dyadya
Monka
5 months ago
No ceasefire holders, what with your face?
kekkone
5 months ago
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2025-termin-bundestag-ampel-scholz-merz-100.html are you actually retarded?
Lissabon
5 months ago
Even if the Chancellor were to lose the vote of confidence on December 16, 2024, dissolving the Bundestag within that year would be practically impossible due to constitutional timelines. According to Article 68 of the German Basic Law, the Federal President has 21 days to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag following a failed vote of confidence. This 21-day period extends beyond the end of the year, meaning that any decision regarding dissolution would fall into January 2025 at the earliest. As a result, it is not possible for the Bundestag to be dissolved in 2024, even if the vote of confidence is lost.
kekkone
5 months ago
also, your claim that the president needs to wait for 21 days is just not true.
Lissabon
5 months ago
Even if the Chancellor were to lose the vote of confidence on December 16, 2024, dissolving the Bundestag within that year would be practically impossible due to constitutional timelines. According to Article 68 of the German Basic Law, the Federal President has 21 days to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag following a failed vote of confidence. This 21-day period extends beyond the end of the year, meaning that any decision regarding dissolution would fall into January 2025 at the earliest. As a result, it is not possible for the Bundestag to be dissolved in 2024, even if the vote of confidence is lost.
kekkone
5 months ago
Germans want things that are expectable. Now that the December 27th has been mentioned in the media, that's the base situation and people are preparing for it.
Lissabon
5 months ago
Even if the Chancellor were to lose the vote of confidence on December 16, 2024, dissolving the Bundestag within that year would be practically impossible due to constitutional timelines. According to Article 68 of the German Basic Law, the Federal President has 21 days to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag following a failed vote of confidence. This 21-day period extends beyond the end of the year, meaning that any decision regarding dissolution would fall into January 2025 at the earliest. As a result, it is not possible for the Bundestag to be dissolved in 2024, even if the vote of confidence is lost.
kekkone
5 months ago
Yes. This is ablsolutely right! I work at the Bund Deutscher Maedel and advise everyone to buy more No right away. Preferably large market orders.
Lissabon
5 months ago
Even if the Chancellor were to lose the vote of confidence on December 16, 2024, dissolving the Bundestag within that year would be practically impossible due to constitutional timelines. According to Article 68 of the German Basic Law, the Federal President has 21 days to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag following a failed vote of confidence. This 21-day period extends beyond the end of the year, meaning that any decision regarding dissolution would fall into January 2025 at the earliest. As a result, it is not possible for the Bundestag to be dissolved in 2024, even if the vote of confidence is lost.
kekkone
5 months ago
They'll run out of minutes soon if they'll frontrun doom every year. There's an end in sight in all the major conflicts and at least some sort of a deal was scraped up at Baku. No is absolutely not certain but undervalued.
kekkone
5 months ago
How utterly and completely delusional.
kekkone
6 months ago
Great ideas for whoever writes his speeches.
kekkone
5 months ago
No
magikarpet90812
5 months ago
No voters are the same ones who think Trump will actually solve the war in Ukraine
kekkone
6 months ago
I think it's still a schizo scenario, but AFD and BSW could theoretically vote pro Scholz and skip the early elections altogether.
Dutchland
6 months ago
wtf why is everybody buying no just now?? please explain
kekkone
6 months ago
the orthodox christmas is before the inauguration as well. not that it matters. there will be no christmas truce.
MisTKy
6 months ago
I saw some comments that some people bet because they think that there will be a pause in fighting when it is Christmas. First of all you need to know that Ukrianians celebrate Christmas now on another date. Second there were markets in the Middle East that also had pauses in fighting and they didn't count.
kekkone
6 months ago
No, nothing’s confirmed yet. Good luck, i hope the Germans get the government they really want.
kekkone
6 months ago
Lol what is this? AFD saving the Ampel?!
kekkone
6 months ago
AFD will possibly vote along with the minority government which means Bundestag would not be dissolved. I can’t define a price for how likely they’ll actually do this so am out.
kekkone
6 months ago
Lol what is this? AFD saving the Ampel?!
kekkone
6 months ago
SPD + Gruene + AFD is majority. I’m out for not understanding German politics enough. GL.
kekkone
6 months ago
Lol what is this? AFD saving the Ampel?!
kekkone
6 months ago
Lol what is this? AFD saving the Ampel?!
kekkone
6 months ago
Great ideas for whoever writes his speeches.
kekkone
6 months ago
oh no.
Flaner
6 months ago
I estimate that margin 1.7636 goes to 1.5724
kekkone
6 months ago
that's a good one.
SergT1214
6 months ago
Putin and Scholz starting peace talks. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/putin-and-germany-s-scholz-plan-to-hold-phone-call-friday
kekkone
6 months ago
Rolandoo you drunk?
kekkone
6 months ago
Deus non vult.
kekkone
6 months ago
Cool. Lets hope this gets there before the time decay hits
Infringe
6 months ago
this is way more than a 90 days market, some people will understand...
kekkone
6 months ago
Why not sell the obvious top?
Infringe
6 months ago
this is way more than a 90 days market, some people will understand...
kekkone
6 months ago
Badri Raffendshvili will find any missing votes for a total GD victory
kekkone
6 months ago
Yeah that’s why I’m staying away from this.
DFK
6 months ago
Lol like he can do that. Oh Lord I love PM. Mark my words I'm buying now at 73c and will keep buying anything lower with all I got.
kekkone
6 months ago
they already tried that
kekkone
7 months ago
Trump has plenty of leverage over Zelensky but hardly any over Putin. He could always coerce Ukraine to surrender on Russian terms though.
kekkone
6 months ago
would be lovely to see your bets, champion
kekkone
7 months ago
Trump has plenty of leverage over Zelensky but hardly any over Putin. He could always coerce Ukraine to surrender on Russian terms though.
kekkone
7 months ago
Trump has plenty of leverage over Zelensky but hardly any over Putin. He could always coerce Ukraine to surrender on Russian terms though.
kekkone
7 months ago
The democrats might have indeed alienated many groups of people including Asian men, but my bet is on the asian and especially Desi women not being one of them. Let's see how it goes.
kekkone
7 months ago
There's just one poll that could give any hint about how Asian Americans will vote in the election. The NORC poll from last month showed 28% support for Trump in comparison to the 35% in the 2020 exit poll. The margin of error will be significant however and essentially this is down to how well the election goes overall for him. Pretty close to a coinflip.
kekkone
7 months ago
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3283114/us-poll-shows-strong-support-kamala-harris-asian-americans-will-it-be-pivotal
kekkone
7 months ago
There's just one poll that could give any hint about how Asian Americans will vote in the election. The NORC poll from last month showed 28% support for Trump in comparison to the 35% in the 2020 exit poll. The margin of error will be significant however and essentially this is down to how well the election goes overall for him. Pretty close to a coinflip.
kekkone
7 months ago
There's just one poll that could give any hint about how Asian Americans will vote in the election. The NORC poll from last month showed 28% support for Trump in comparison to the 35% in the 2020 exit poll. The margin of error will be significant however and essentially this is down to how well the election goes overall for him. Pretty close to a coinflip.
kekkone
7 months ago
Sure. I was just commenting on the present situation.
kekkone
7 months ago
So it’s on Syrian controlled territory which also is a DMZ. They’ve been occasionally bulldozing shit on that side of the border since 2022.
kekkone
7 months ago
This is a clear P1 on UMA, don’t fool yourselves
kekkone
7 months ago
So it’s on Syrian controlled territory which also is a DMZ. They’ve been occasionally bulldozing shit on that side of the border since 2022.
kekkone
7 months ago
Sold my Y shares, this is unlikely to escalate anywhere. The road itself (Sufa 53) is on Israeli side of the border.
kekkone
7 months ago
So it’s on Syrian controlled territory which also is a DMZ. They’ve been occasionally bulldozing shit on that side of the border since 2022.
kekkone
7 months ago
So it’s on Syrian controlled territory which also is a DMZ. They’ve been occasionally bulldozing shit on that side of the border since 2022.
kekkone
7 months ago
There are reports Israeli troops backed by armor entered ~500 m into #Syria in the S. Quneitra province. They seized an area West of Kudna, along the border fence with Golan, & bulldozed trees. No clashes were reported. horanfree.com/archives/16533
kekkone
7 months ago
Security cabinet will have a vote on the response against Iran 8:30pm Israeli time tonight. A delay til next month is very unlikely.
kekkone
7 months ago
nah i'm good
predictordeniz
7 months ago
buy more yes
kekkone
7 months ago
Israel's security cabinet to convene at 19:00 local time this evening to vote on retaliation operation vs Iran, @N12News reports.
kekkone
7 months ago
It's over, congrats dog 3
kekkone
7 months ago
Down to cat 4 again.
kekkone
7 months ago
you're right but where are your bets?
MisterDogTits
7 months ago
Hi stupid, but thats not "the offical forecast." Let me help you, the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) runs the National Huricane Center (NHC). Here is the official forecast discussion, max speeds as it approaches the cosat per the latest update a few hours ago was 130mph off the coast and slowing, which means strong cat 3 at most. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090855.shtml
kekkone
7 months ago
google 24 hours to find out how long until DOMS happens
mizu
7 months ago
Google delayed muscle onset sorness to find out what happens next…
kekkone
7 months ago
The IDF is controlled by the Jews! Wake up!
kekkone
7 months ago
Those idiots should've met with Meredith regardless of anything. They seem to have been doing a real shitty job.
kekkone
7 months ago
Sassaman, who died in 2011, isn’t Satoshi, says his widow, Meredith L Patterson. And HBO never even approached her when making the documentary, she told DL News, “which is the strangest thing about all this to me.”
kekkone
7 months ago
Sassaman, who died in 2011, isn’t Satoshi, says his widow, Meredith L Patterson. And HBO never even approached her when making the documentary, she told DL News, “which is the strangest thing about all this to me.”
kekkone
7 months ago
Viva el Presidente!
Secret14thKey
7 months ago
Venezuelan president Edmundo Gonzales just confirmed that sporadic raids are not an invasion
kekkone
7 months ago
who would've guessed lol
-nothingburger-
7 months ago
insiders buying OTHER/MULTIPLE but not buying satoshi revealed in 2024 at 10c so what does it mean? it means that documentary proves nothing https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven?tid=1728308851880
kekkone
7 months ago
TORILLE
HGdrr
7 months ago
Vili Lehdonvirta
kekkone
7 months ago
everyone's already voted, the votes are being revealed now
Phoenix777
7 months ago
47,6% of token holder haven't voted yet YES not over/under, the voting is still in process
kekkone
7 months ago
I already saw the doc. It's Len
kekkone
7 months ago
we'd absolutely hear it from some twitter guy with 600 followers.
KKAJ
7 months ago
Iran just conducted a nuclear test https://x.com/Keef337178/status/1842756748311924984, will also resolve https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-in-2024/iran-nuke-in-2024?tid=1728211707922
kekkone
7 months ago
that's not what this market is about
MarkSaadalla
7 months ago
Walz was a wreck just look at the memes.
kekkone
7 months ago
Coingeek has pretty solid case against Back, Szabo or Finney being Satoshi. https://coingeek.com/?s=faketoshi
kekkone
7 months ago
if someone's more likely than others, that's the resolution. if two or more are equally likely, it's the Other/Multiple
n/a
7 months ago
Does the conclusion ‘we can’t know for sure’ resolve to ‘Other/Multiple’? Or are all bets refunded in that case?
kekkone
7 months ago
stop it retard
ncap
7 months ago
All people not beliving, look at the uma vote. Why does nearly everyone voted for P4 and not for ,,YES"? Why should they change their decisions made 2 times before...
kekkone
7 months ago
just sell, man
Korantis
7 months ago
When finish this bet?
kekkone
7 months ago
Len Sassaman will make the best HBO story. It doesn't matter if it really is him and they're unlikely to be able to prove it anyway.
kekkone
7 months ago
you regard HBO too highly lol. they unlikely have definitive proof
ncap
7 months ago
How is the ,,Len Sassaman" propability that high? He is dead how could they proof that he is the Bitcoin founder? He cant do any transcations, neither can he do a statement or am I missing something?
kekkone
7 months ago
He’s conveniently dead
Car
7 months ago
Why is Len Sassaman so high
kekkone
7 months ago
it was disputed, went to UMA, got voted P4 (Too Early) and will need to be proposed again by someone.
JoeBETS
7 months ago
guys is this going to get resolved? what the fuck
kekkone
7 months ago
Thank you, I was voted the funniest non-retarded person in Kyrpäjärvi in 2018.
Mountainman
7 months ago
That's a genuinely funny comment. haha
kekkone
7 months ago
Curb your enthusiasm
kekkone
7 months ago
okay
kekkone
7 months ago
that's Nacist!
TheGuy27
7 months ago
I HATE RIGGERS
kekkone
7 months ago
There were no YES votes, so yeah, it is. Just your money is stuck for a little longer.
smallbet6
7 months ago
what now
kekkone
7 months ago
That’s the way UMA and Polymarket work.
smallbet6
7 months ago
what now
kekkone
7 months ago
P4 (too early) won by almost 100% of the vote. Outcome will need to be proposed again.
smallbet6
7 months ago
what now
kekkone
7 months ago
True, but even fresh-er capital incoming 😍
informed
7 months ago
You are the fresh capital
kekkone
7 months ago
We’re going to have a lot of fresh capital increasing bond yields from now on 🥰
kekkone
7 months ago
with rules and the clarification, this is a NO, as the market very obviously points too.
n/a
7 months ago
I definetly can see the case for "No", but right now I'm just betting on the solver sticking to its original outcome ("Yes").
kekkone
7 months ago
no. read the rules.
SydneySweeney
7 months ago
Would a nuclear power plant failure be considered a nuclear detonation?
kekkone
7 months ago
can't blame you for not betting on your beliefs
KKAJ
9 months ago
It will resolve to "Yes" but for different reasons then you think.
kekkone
7 months ago
Sure, you can drive this all the way up to 90 if you really like.
kekkone
7 months ago
There will be plenty of evidence for a YES soon. Not just quite yet.
nicekitty
7 months ago
Almost ready to propose now, attempting to gain control of over 20 Lebanese border towns should count as “a military offensive intended to establish control” CHANGE MY MIND
kekkone
7 months ago
Could somebody with a higher stack of roubles please propose this?
kekkone
7 months ago
This will resolve YES once the Israeli set up camp within Lebanese territory. That will happen today.
kekkone
7 months ago
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1840758054171660390
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
Source?
kekkone
7 months ago
Israel War Live: The wider invasion of Lebanon is expected to begin within 72 hours.
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
Source?
kekkone
7 months ago
Israeli milbloggers now say the invasion will begin within 72 hours. This market closed in 13. GL all.
kekkone
7 months ago
A 10% chance is more or less correct pricing for the actual invasion starting just before midnight EST.
kekkone
7 months ago
They’re too close to invading. Coalition now stronger with Sa’ar. Lots of artillery fire across the border. Not comfortable holding til dawnbreak in Israel. GL all.
kekkone
7 months ago
They’re too close to invading. Coalition now stronger with Sa’ar. Lots of artillery fire across the border. Not comfortable holding til dawnbreak in Israel. GL all.
kekkone
7 months ago
i suggest you read the rules again
dav1
7 months ago
An identical market is resolving for YES. https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727699050043
kekkone
7 months ago
someone just did
Besh24
7 months ago
Has someone disputed or should i do it?
kekkone
7 months ago
only dispute if you don't mind losing the 750 USDC
Kavim
7 months ago
how to dispute ?
kekkone
7 months ago
i don't think someone with his balance should dispute.
BlackSky123
7 months ago
Okay, so first of all you need $750 in USDC.e. You can get USDC.e by withdrawing that amount from your Polymarket account, and MAKE SURE to check the USDC.e checkmark, because it won't be checked by default. Then click the dispute button, the rest should be obvious. If you win the dispute, you will have $1000 credited back to your account, meaning that you will win $250.
kekkone
7 months ago
you're in the wrong market.
isAziz
7 months ago
As someone who has lived in the Middle East my entire life, I have seen this scene hundreds of times. The current escalation does not suggest that Israel will invade Lebanon in the coming hours. In November? Perhaps. But in the next few hours, 90% likely not.
kekkone
7 months ago
i guess the Al Jazeera tweet was the time indicator. Recently before it.
ThisIsSparta
7 months ago
lol, definitely not. Also, can you mention when did it exactly happen?
kekkone
7 months ago
don't get stuck in the past. 25c is far behind you
ThisIsSparta
7 months ago
25c for No when it meets the criteria, what a joke.
kekkone
7 months ago
It's been one bloody combat operation over here.
kekkone
7 months ago
very different rules
ActDrew
7 months ago
Other market priced at 75% now
kekkone
7 months ago
LOL, sell while you still can...
Caligulas.dog
7 months ago
There is literally just 1 aljazeera source speculating about a tweet
kekkone
7 months ago
i believe that an invasion will come. just not today.
ActDrew
7 months ago
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822525 Defense Minister Yoav Gallant addressed a possible ground operation in Lebanon while speaking to soldiers in Israel's northern border, KAN News reported. "Nasrallah's elimination is not the end. To return the northern residents, we will activate all our capabilities, including you," he told the soldiers.
kekkone
7 months ago
it's by far the best on the "other side"
NostraCassandra
7 months ago
Al Jazeera is hardly substantive news
kekkone
7 months ago
In this light, the arabic Al Jazeera tweet makes perfect sense. I was wrong earlier when you were right.
Foreseeable.
7 months ago
Pretty sure a raid is a combat operation. And if a raid is only 1/3 of a combat operation, 3 raids are one.
kekkone
7 months ago
"They are targeting" is clearly not something that happened in the past
X9504
7 months ago
Seems pretty clear
kekkone
7 months ago
we've gone through this already
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
Massive bombing by Israel in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah leadership, thus assuming control over Hezbollah controlled zones in Lebanon happening.
kekkone
7 months ago
"elite troops were targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons sites and command and control centres"
Car
7 months ago
Are there any articles confirming the time + that it is for “combat operations”? If so, please send them! Im happy to switch to YES if this is the case
kekkone
7 months ago
there's the timeline: After Nasrallah assassination, there's the combat: targeting enemy infrastructure
kekkone
7 months ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/
kekkone
7 months ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/
Car
7 months ago
Are there any articles confirming the time + that it is for “combat operations”? If so, please send them! Im happy to switch to YES if this is the case
kekkone
7 months ago
targeting with weapons, not with binoculars
kekkone
7 months ago
An Israeli official told the Telegraph that elite troops were targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons sites and command and control centres, in a bid to push the militants away from the Israeli border.
kekkone
7 months ago
An Israeli official told the Telegraph that elite troops were targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons sites and command and control centres, in a bid to push the militants away from the Israeli border.
kekkone
7 months ago
one early morning in the near future.
Phat.
7 months ago
Its all about when at this point
kekkone
7 months ago
yes but they're not rolling today
BiggestBidenFan
7 months ago
🇮🇱🇱🇧Israeli Defense Minister Galant in a conversation with armored fighters on the northern border: "The elimination of Nasrallah is an important step, but it is not the end - to return the residents of the north we will use all our capabilities, including you." ✍️Galant's words on the northern border with the armored fighters of the 188th Brigade are another clear signal - Israel is on the way to a ground invasion in southern Lebanon
kekkone
7 months ago
A raid is a combat operation.
kekkone
7 months ago
I was wrong. Many were right. Congrats!
kekkone
7 months ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-idf-special-forces-entered-hezbollah-tunnels-during-lebanon-cross-border-operations/
kekkone
7 months ago
Times of Israel confirms it. So do Israeli milbloggers. GG
kekkone
7 months ago
Jerusalem Post explicitly says that "multiple top sources" have told them that no ground operation has taken place, yet. And this article was posted after the ones people keep spamming here.
abdendriel
7 months ago
Why would US officials say Israel may have crossed the border already following their discussion with Israel about their plans? Funny how most of us believe it’s happened already, but Yes holders are now coming out of the woodwork at the mention of possible 50/50 resolution.
kekkone
7 months ago
There's a lot of maybes against one definete NO by Jerusalem Post.
kekkone
7 months ago
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290 IDF not conducting ground operations in Lebanon yet, sources say
kekkone
7 months ago
LOL
abdendriel
7 months ago
Consensus of credible sources is that it may have already happened. 1 source says it did happen. Burden of proof should be on No holders. Otherwise, you could say all news is possibly erroneous.
kekkone
7 months ago
The whales might eat you but there’s no case for this to resolve yes with what’s been reported.
NotJustKen
7 months ago
So I just need to hold for 24hrs to make $40 on my $200? This looks like a 20% paying bond in one day. Thanks war mongers
kekkone
7 months ago
That’s why there’s no consensus of credible reporting on a ground incursion.
abdendriel
7 months ago
What’s the evidence that the Telegraph article is fake?
kekkone
7 months ago
Not fake. Just wrong conclusions from the same source as ABC News. We will see no further evidence. Hold Y if you like though.
abdendriel
7 months ago
What’s the evidence that the Telegraph article is fake?
kekkone
7 months ago
Even a 50/50 needs way more evidence.
abdendriel
7 months ago
Paul Niki from the Telegraph is based in Israel. Reporters do get in contact with IDF and report on what they hear, which becomes a source of reporting. Consensus of credible reporting now is that US believes an incursion may have already been done. 1 source reported it has been. From your post, you seem to believe it was always happening. 50/50 resolution possible
kekkone
7 months ago
Wouldn’t bet on additional evidence appearing. GL
RememberAmalek
7 months ago
I'm only swing trading this I'm big on N on the November market but more damning for them is the actual Arabic translations meaning, without more info this isn't resolving Y
kekkone
7 months ago
He didn’t give a private one for The Telegraph
abdendriel
7 months ago
Heard all of Halevi’s verbal briefings in Hebrew?
kekkone
7 months ago
Israel has not ”briefed” a British Newspaper about a ground incursion, leaving everyone else in the dark.
kekkone
7 months ago
One tweet in arabic, one probable error from a British Newspaper. The evidence is not there. Nice volatility play though.
kekkone
7 months ago
Do you expect to have by monday?
Remontada
7 months ago
No.
kekkone
7 months ago
Then propose
n/a
7 months ago
It simply says Israeli personnel entering Lebanon, which seems to be confirmed by both sides.
kekkone
7 months ago
Israeli Special Ops have operated in Lebanon pretty much non stop since 2006. If that was what the market was about, it would have been resolved already on day 1. We are not going to get further evidence regarding possible SOF raids.
kekkone
7 months ago
Love it when there's several (almost) parallel Lebanon invasion markets. Someone's sure Israel isn't for sure going to invade anytime next month because whatever reasons and someone's certain THEY'RE ALREADY THERE.
kekkone
7 months ago
Related meaning both never happened
Remontada
7 months ago
Two related, but different events.
kekkone
7 months ago
yeah. never trade based on information sourced from Hezbollah
aced
7 months ago
they are saying they targeted the planes that initated a new attack and not a groud operation lmao
kekkone
7 months ago
https://twitter.com/mariresisting/status/1840420032687309230
kekkone
7 months ago
The Hezbollah statement says "In defense of Lebanon and its people, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of enemy soldiers in the Shtula settlement with rocket weapons, achieving confirmed casualties." Shtula is in Israel.
kekkone
7 months ago
The Hezbollah statement says "In defense of Lebanon and its people, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of enemy soldiers in the Shtula settlement with rocket weapons, achieving confirmed casualties." Shtula is in Israel.
kekkone
7 months ago
Well at least the Merkava tanks look fucking awesome.
kekkone
7 months ago
That’s what the MSM says
Gena🐊
7 months ago
No, they allays leave the pets behind
kekkone
7 months ago
They’re evacuating the dogs. They’re evacuating the pets of the people that live there.
kekkone
7 months ago
Homeowners hate this one simple trick.
MrKangaroo
7 months ago
i threw a rock at my neighbour, now i have control of his house
kekkone
7 months ago
Might the Kerch bridge be under attack? Fill my limit order and let's find out together!
kekkone
7 months ago
that's a legit interpretation and PM should address it asap
Gena🐊
7 months ago
Invasion is the act of taking control of a territory through military force, which can include airstrikes or other means that weaken the enemy, not necessarily ground troops.
kekkone
7 months ago
the word invasion is less ambiguous, they should repeat it in the rules, not just the market title
Gena🐊
7 months ago
Military control is the authority a military force exerts over a territory by dominating strategic points, restricting enemy operations, and neutralizing opposition. It doesn't require ground troops if airstrikes, blockades, or other means effectively limit the enemy's ability to function or resist.
kekkone
7 months ago
oh no, you sold.
tsybka
7 months ago
Trump is an old clown.
kekkone
7 months ago
Just like picking up pennies in front of an IDF armored bulldozer
kekkone
7 months ago
it's pretty quiet in here
kekkone
7 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-2024
rmin
7 months ago
Give us odds for a nuke being dropped by November
kekkone
7 months ago
Hamas to cede civilian control of Gaza to Palestinian Authority, source says
kekkone
7 months ago
gg justifax
kekkone
7 months ago
Israel-Hezbollah latest: Temporary ceasefire deal expected to be implemented 'in the coming hours'
kekkone
7 months ago
Thanks for your naïve optimism, yessers.
kekkone
7 months ago
https://gadebate.un.org/en
kekkone
7 months ago
it's in tomorrow's morning session, he's the fourth speaker. 10-11 AM-ish ET
kekkone
7 months ago
he will not.
Fav1
7 months ago
Do you think he will brag about capturing a piece of Russian territory near the border?
kekkone
7 months ago
it's in tomorrow's morning session, he's the fourth speaker. 10-11 AM-ish ET
tsybka
7 months ago
What time is Zelensky speaking at the UN?
kekkone
7 months ago
Zelensky's previous speeches: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/speeches
kekkone
7 months ago
Вони не зустрінуться.
tsybka
7 months ago
read the last paragraph - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1838350697621811595
kekkone
7 months ago
Read it. It means they have scheduled with Biden but not with Trump.
tsybka
7 months ago
read the last paragraph - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1838350697621811595
kekkone
7 months ago
”The goods are trans… they are transported from China”
idfkanything
7 months ago
He won't say trans at an event titled "President Donald J. Trump to Deliver Remarks on the Tax Code and US Manufacturing, in Savannah, Georgia"
kekkone
8 months ago
So few people here understand how these elections work. But thanks for the money, regardless.
kekkone
8 months ago
in the wrong votes, Car.
Car
8 months ago
SPD now in the lead: https://imgur.com/JC4cObw
kekkone
8 months ago
Woidke sichert SPD-Erfolg vor AfD.
kekkone
8 months ago
STOPPT DIE KOUNT!
kekkone
8 months ago
this is exactly a burger election, a brandenburger election
BuckMySalls
8 months ago
this isnt like burger elections, German exit polls are very accurate
kekkone
8 months ago
I'm sure a German could summarize it better but yeah, first is for the candidates to determine their order under a party list and the second vote for the party.
CheerfulPessimist
8 months ago
Can we get clarity on which votes count? Apparently you were allowed to cast two votes today? is it one or the other, or is it both combined?
kekkone
8 months ago
Loving the drama of a German state election.
kekkone
8 months ago
does someone have an updating forecast online?
CheerfulPessimist
8 months ago
very misleading at the moment
kekkone
8 months ago
Lando flies the Millennium Falcon inside the Death Star and wins by blowing up the reactor core.
kekkone
8 months ago
They could fund their vodka rations by placing bets here and then throwing everything at the push for what's left of the church.
GreedyMacFear
8 months ago
It is tricky one. The capture is very close. But on the other hand, pussians always struggle to deliver any results.
kekkone
8 months ago
The timeline is also very much in question in this market.
Justifax
8 months ago
There is already a war. Whether Israel wants to risk boots is the question.
kekkone
8 months ago
moscow targets too well protected, R/R ratio bad
Foreseeable.
8 months ago
Ukrainian drones fly all the way through russia to destroy the biggest weapon depot of the russians; but despite all this capability this market doesnt see the chance for another bombing on moscow?! The last strikes were just the beginning!! https://x.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1836347684480803045
kekkone
8 months ago
Sure, go ahead and buy the rocket impact tweets.
kekkone
8 months ago
"Following a situational assessment and in accordance with Home Front Command guidelines, it was decided that restrictions that were set yesterday (Thursday) on the communities of Merom HaGalil, Northern Galilee, Kiryat Shmona, Mevo'ot HaHermon, Yesud HaMa'ala, Hatzor, Rosh Pinna, Safed, Metula and communities in the northern Golan north of Katzrin will be lifted." -IDF this morning
kekkone
8 months ago
"Following a situational assessment and in accordance with Home Front Command guidelines, it was decided that restrictions that were set yesterday (Thursday) on the communities of Merom HaGalil, Northern Galilee, Kiryat Shmona, Mevo'ot HaHermon, Yesud HaMa'ala, Hatzor, Rosh Pinna, Safed, Metula and communities in the northern Golan north of Katzrin will be lifted." -IDF this morning
kekkone
8 months ago
yes. any sort of conventional ground invasion will do. the wording is like this to rule out special forces operations. A ground invasion is not happening. The troops aren't there.
DeucePapi
8 months ago
If Israel crosses into Lebanon, it won't even matter what the wording is. The only reason why they'd invade Lebanon is to occupy land used as a rocket launch point by Hezbollah and convert it into a buffer zone
kekkone
8 months ago
no cut, votes 8 to 1
kekkone
8 months ago
y los gatos tambien ay ay
DogEaterOhio
8 months ago
Ellos estan comiendo los perros
kekkone
8 months ago
calendars show analyst consensus. experts still believe in 25. the market believes in 50
VVS
8 months ago
so strange
kekkone
8 months ago
What time does this start?
kekkone
8 months ago
Thank Nick
yoonmarketenjoyer
8 months ago
Thanks for the free article
kekkone
8 months ago
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1836034993140695283
kekkone
8 months ago
Blackrock expects almost exactly the same as futures traders currently, 2,75ish by end of next year. Zero news value.
DonCorleone
8 months ago
JUST IN: BlackRock says the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will not be as deep as the market expects.
kekkone
8 months ago
50-25-50 or 25-50-50
kekkone
8 months ago
25 is better than 50, ask Leonardo DiCaprio
kekkone
8 months ago
yes
GreedyMacFear
8 months ago
Do I have to be subscriber to see the actual number?
kekkone
8 months ago
Three just somehow feels magical.
kekkone
8 months ago
EU cut by 25 bps retard.
n/a
8 months ago
idk, the EU just dropped theirs 50bps. And they're a US vassal --- maybe they were told to so that the US / EU could move in lockstep. At the very least, the US wouldn't be the first to make this move
kekkone
8 months ago
crazy how inconclusive. as if Nick's on a mission for -50bps himself
Lennart
8 months ago
CME at 45/55 % not great
kekkone
8 months ago
Come on Nick, give us a proper leak.
kekkone
8 months ago
1.2
kekkone
8 months ago
They've started adding the Rasmussen polls. Starting with Biden's approval rating.
kekkone
8 months ago
Breathe
n/a
8 months ago
We need Rasmussen now
kekkone
8 months ago
yeah it pretty much did, as you can see.
Christian75
8 months ago
cpi? ok then
kekkone
8 months ago
The CPI print today will decide this.
kekkone
8 months ago
I'm sure basedboi here has insider information about inflation numbers.
kekkone
8 months ago
Nice swing tbf
Mountainman
8 months ago
Source: You made it up. hahahaha. Still buying, and still winning.
kekkone
8 months ago
Magnitude 8.0. Really?
kekkone
8 months ago
no shit
DeucePapi
8 months ago
It's even worse now
kekkone
8 months ago
It’s not OVER over. They still might update today’s data point. Only after we get the next one we know for sure.
kekkone
8 months ago
91% sure. Last year’s september was extreme and very hard to beat. So far the month’s been way less hot.
epicRNG
8 months ago
Those on the no side, how sure are you and why?
kekkone
8 months ago
yes. scroll down. RCP already added it.
rumtumtugger
8 months ago
does this poll contain a favourability question? I didn't find one in the article about it..
kekkone
8 months ago
If they add the NYT/Siena poll today, the gap is going to widen in favor of unfavorable. If they don't, it's going to stay at +0.1 unfavorable. I wouldn't hold any Yes anymore.
kekkone
8 months ago
Correct. We should see the new data point soon. I can only see the rounded up percents which show Kamala at -5. Do you have more accurate data?
grappli
8 months ago
New NYT/Siena poll released this morning has Kamala at -4 favorability. I'm very doubtful we will go positive today.
kekkone
8 months ago
today's data point still unfav +0.1
kekkone
8 months ago
WWG1WGA and so on
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
8 months ago
it's happening, trust the plan
kekkone
8 months ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-09-06/us-employment-report-for-august?srnd=homepage-asia
kekkone
8 months ago
At Monex, foreign-exchange trader Helen Given says the August jobs report wasn’t “decidedly good or bad.” “Overnight swaps have jumped up a bit on calls for 50 basis points, but in our view the Fed still doesn’t have either the room or the rationale to justify such a move.”
kekkone
8 months ago
At Monex, foreign-exchange trader Helen Given says the August jobs report wasn’t “decidedly good or bad.” “Overnight swaps have jumped up a bit on calls for 50 basis points, but in our view the Fed still doesn’t have either the room or the rationale to justify such a move.”
kekkone
8 months ago
Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
DerSchwarzeKanal
8 months ago
There was a shooting at the Israeli embassy in Munich, if that's confirmed to be Iranian action - should resolve as Yes is my understanding
kekkone
8 months ago
those numbers won't happen and even if they do, it's 25bps
cakcok
8 months ago
4.22% Unemployment Rate, 149K NFP; 50bp cut
kekkone
8 months ago
case for 25bps still strongest after today's data
kekkone
8 months ago
what about military action that is aimed against, but does not reach Israeli soil?
kekkone
8 months ago
as an iranian, i don't think you should laugh your ass off. you might need it later.
yesbroyourright
8 months ago
Lmao as an iranian i have gained more than my wage from betting on iran will not attack