#89
Rank
220
Comments
90
Likes Received
14
Likes Given
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
18 hours ago
I’m leaving
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
18 hours ago
The votes are in dude
2
n/a
18 hours ago
"Insider trading (upto 20 years) Market manipulation (upto 20 years) syndicate scams (5-20) don't blame anyone else, it's all on the blockchain." . It is true. Think about it carefully, dear YES holders, because then you spend the million and a half on lawyers, in case someone a little pissed off ever happens...
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
18 hours ago
Lol
3
n/a
18 hours ago
"Insider trading (upto 20 years) Market manipulation (upto 20 years) syndicate scams (5-20) don't blame anyone else, it's all on the blockchain." . It is true. Think about it carefully, dear YES holders, because then you spend the million and a half on lawyers, in case someone a little pissed off ever happens...
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
19 hours ago
Technically it’s not over yet lol. People still can reveal votes, but it’s pretty clear this is going to “Yes”
0
n/a
19 hours ago
Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
19 hours ago
You can’t vote. You have to stake UMA which takes at least 24 hours
0
n/a
19 hours ago
Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
19 hours ago
Scroll down and click to view votes
0
n/a
19 hours ago
Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
19 hours ago
https://vote.uma.xyz/
0
n/a
19 hours ago
Can someone link some background on how this voting works? How do I know that I'm not getting scammed?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
19 hours ago
It was a good talk for sure
0
BenCM
19 hours ago
You have at least had a good chat
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
BennyS
20 hours ago
No need to comment your dox lol
0
n/a
20 hours ago
Scorn4Sega has $11.2k Yes now after his limit order at 25c filled. Scorn4Sega is the tumblr account of Brian DiCola, A Cybersecurity Sales Director for a company acquired by Microsoft, now works at Microsoft, makes at least 250k. He has 18 tenants in real estate on the side, He lives in Washington D.C. He's visited the white house bowling alley. He even got acquainted with McLovin at one of the many concerts he's attended. He collects moderately expensive watches and sometimes sells them on reddit watch exchange. He also buys used colognes on reddit fragrance swap. Brian is 44, just had a daughter, and is sitting on several million of Microsoft money at least, but he is no insider. I put my money on it.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
21 hours ago
I’m offering exit liquidity to No holders: 99.9c Y / 0.1 N. Take it while you still can.
2
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
BennyS
1 day ago
Huh?
0
n/a
1 day ago
I’d place a bet that most of you couldn’t even write out the acronym for maga, if you were put on the spot to try. See if you can without cheating or Googling it. Hint: It’s pretty simple and straightforward but it requires some common sense and a non-biased ability to see both sides before it clicks.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
BennyS
1 day ago
I wonder what the price would be if Walz hadn't said "I became friends with school shooters" lolwut...
3
Will Kamala go on Lex Fridman podcast?
BennyS
1 day ago
Let us know
0
🔰LexFridman🔰
1 month ago
https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1830695709869285669
What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?
BennyS
1 day ago
because nobody proposed to resolve it
0
n/a
1 day ago
why is Trump 30+ not resolved?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
BennyS
1 day ago
Next time wait for them to finish the sentence before you comment 🤣
0
RoAsc
1 day ago
she had to travel...THE HORROR..
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
BennyS
1 day ago
You didn’t even wait for him to finish the sentence lol
0
RoAsc
1 day ago
she had to travel...THE HORROR..
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BennyS
3 days ago
Mr.HaterzLoserz, the official quote is "even" the haters and losers, not "especially" its been bothering me for a while. Congrats
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
3 days ago
There are no US troop in danger here lol
0
BennyS
3 days ago
PROTECT US TROOPS?? LOL.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BennyS
3 days ago
PROTECT US TROOPS?? LOL.
0
OhNos
3 days ago
My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
3 days ago
Whales fill me at 99.8c. I want to bet somewhere else
0
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
3 days ago
Yes it was vetoed
0
Justifax
3 days ago
ok ok maybe my source isn't that solid, but I am pretty sure he'll veto... fingers crossed
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
1 week ago
Not today
0
n/a
1 week ago
Signing imminent.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
This happens whenever there is a major escalation. It is not relevant to a ground invasion.
0
sd2333
2 weeks ago
https://x.com/DavidLammy/status/1836807103333249441 My message to British nationals in Lebanon is leave while commercial options remain. Tensions are high and the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
My previous comment: In order to create a buffer zone, one needs to control the territory on which they create the buffer.
2
Car
2 weeks ago
Israel could invade, blow the whole country up and kill people and this market wont resolve to YES. That one sentence fucks up the whole market. That is why I requested a new market with better rules:
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
*Proceeds to sell at a loss*
2
XiJinPing
2 weeks ago
nothing ever happens, every hopium tweet is free money from yes holders
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Yes, Israel redeploys troops from Gaza to the Lebanese border everyday, lol
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
spamming every day news desperately to pump yes lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Gallant will stay on. If not, we can expect a campaign in South Lebanon, but Gallant will stay on anyway.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Yes. If they come from the frontier and push into Lebanese territory, that should satisfy. A commando operation, like the one in Syria last week, would not.
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
Note that for the bet to result in a yes, Israel does not need to occupy a territory, it only needs to establish a military offensive to occupy it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Southern Lebanon consists of small agricultural villages, the majority of which have already been evacuated for some time. Perhaps some of those farmers have already joined Hezbollah, who knows?
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The only thing they'd do that I can see is motivate people to join hez.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
However, this combat experience may not be as useful when up against a well coordinated military like IDF.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The only thing they'd do that I can see is motivate people to join hez.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Israel would not consider recruitment as a deterrent. The biggest deterrent is that Hezbollah already has a large standing army, many with combat experience from fighting rebels such as the FSA, Al-Qaeda, and ISIL alongside Bashar Al-Assad.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The only thing they'd do that I can see is motivate people to join hez.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Around 60'000 Israeli's were evacuated from the north last year. There is some political pressure to return them home. Up until recently, Israeli was engaging in ceasefire talks and expected the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Now, Gallant rejects a diplomatic solution, and he told the US envoy on Monday that only military action will enable their return.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The problem isn't one of war versus no war, or even that the radawan are all that, the problem is .. why? what's to gain?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
That being said, at the time being, it doesn't appear that this is the case. Still Israel may continue with a limited ground operation sometime in the near future. I just don't expect it to be tomorrow or this week.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
We've been down this route a 1000 times. Israel isn't going to invade because they blew up a bunch of pagers. If Hez actually escalates back, maybe. We can talk then. Hez has shown little appetite for escalation though.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
A Hezbollah response may be used for pretense -- since Israel officially denies the pager bombs. However, this is unlikely. Everyone knows the bombing was an Israeli operation, even if it was officially denied. I think the price spiked because a reasonable assumption would be that Israel could start a ground invasion while Hezbollah communications have been damaged.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
We've been down this route a 1000 times. Israel isn't going to invade because they blew up a bunch of pagers. If Hez actually escalates back, maybe. We can talk then. Hez has shown little appetite for escalation though.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Yes. If they come from the frontier and push into Lebanese territory, that should satisfy. A commando operation, like the one in Syria last week would not.
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
Note that for the bet to result in a yes, Israel does not need to occupy a territory, it only needs to establish a military offensive to occupy it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Not exactly.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The only thing they'd do that I can see is motivate people to join hez.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
The IDF would occupy the buffer zone in order to push back Hezbollah and allow Israeli civilians to return to their homes in the north.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lebanon and Israel are already at war and have been for sometime. However, Israel's feints into Lebanon have been met with failure. They can achieve all the same goals via artillery and bombing to create their buffer zone. HUMINT achieves quite a lot as well.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
They have already been trying this for nearly a year
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lebanon and Israel are already at war and have been for sometime. However, Israel's feints into Lebanon have been met with failure. They can achieve all the same goals via artillery and bombing to create their buffer zone. HUMINT achieves quite a lot as well.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
In order to create a buffer zone, one needs to control the territory on which they create the buffer.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Creating a buffer zone = occupation. Albeit temporary
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
Entering yes. But occupying? That seems extremely unlikely. Would put their soldiers at immense risk and stretch their manpower. It's probably better for them to just do small incursions and air strikes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
This is so interesting. And perhaps relevant to this market?
0
sd2333
2 weeks ago
Iranian ambassador reportedly injured in Hezbollah explosion https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-820547
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Trump kids left the room to go bet on Polymarket LOL
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
7.5c each. Polymarket reacts instantly to new information. Never try to trade faster than live markets like this.
1
Hungrytoad
2 weeks ago
so much for me being an insider btw lol
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
I have lost a lot due to poor use of market orders. Including today. I'm sorry man
0
Hungrytoad
2 weeks ago
I aped in $60k , tried to sell after it was announced to come out after the election for $45k, clicked the sell button and got robbed due to a glitch , that 45k is now at 8k in my poly balance.. what do i do smn help
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Hmm.. was THIS the scam?
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Not actually a true fact
0
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
Hahaha. Such an emotional guy. You lost buying both sides of the trade multiple times. hahaha
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Fk this. Goodluck aenews
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
You’re quick
0
sd2333
2 weeks ago
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1835827562657792509 Axios reporter just now
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Well, if they are a scammer, they won’t risk losing out on all their potential gains in November.
2
scattering
2 weeks ago
*starts praying*
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
@CheerfulPessimist Actually, it was when I switched from “No” to “Yes”. The $ display at the bottom changes accordingly, but the price per share remains the same, which is what got me. But thanks, you helped me figure it out and recreate the glitch, which I will mention to Polymarket
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Lol! Polymarket is seriously glitchy on mobile..
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
It’s okay. It was a naughty limit order anyway so I’ll take it.
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
ah makes sense, you're right. Sorry it happened to you. And well done on the Yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
I put in a limit order on mobile, entered 89c into the textbox, but the form did not fill. I sold 1000 shares and the corresponding amount at the bottom was 280. I didn’t read carefully enough. I’m not talking about the displayed odds fluctuating because of a relatively small market order that someone made
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Lol! Polymarket is seriously glitchy on mobile..
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Put in a limit sell for 89c and it sold for 28c..
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Lol! Polymarket is seriously glitchy on mobile..
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Lol! Polymarket is seriously glitchy on mobile..
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Hmm. What happened? Let me check the news
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Although apparently, the many of these southern Lebanese areas were already vacant
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-820384
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Also, although the IDF claims that the evacuation leaflet drop in southern Lebanon was “unauthorized”, it would be a good time to start an offensive while Lebanese civilians evacuate
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-820384
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Gallant is the defence minister who was opposed to an offensive Lebanon. Now he is telling the US envoy that it is necessary.
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-820384
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-820384
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
actually, Israel made an unusual strike on Syria last week. But, because Israel occupies the Golan Heights, they have a strategic geographical advantage
0
scottilicious
2 weeks ago
So they're just letting their enemy know ahead of time prior to attacking? Makes perfect sense. You should buy more yes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
3 fronts? What’s the third front?
0
scottilicious
2 weeks ago
So they're just letting their enemy know ahead of time prior to attacking? Makes perfect sense. You should buy more yes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
I think that, since it has been nearly a year since the conflict began, and Israel has stable control in Rafah, Netanyahu is shifting to Lebanon. The IDF has already been notified that they should be prepared for deployment. Clearly, drone and missiles are not sufficient in securing the North, so Israel will likely try to create a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon.
1
satoshi sir
2 weeks ago
Israli Radio: the head of the Northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a "security zone" on the Lebanese side
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Can you provide a source?
0
satoshi sir
2 weeks ago
Israli Radio: the head of the Northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a "security zone" on the Lebanese side
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Netanyahu is setting the groundwork for an invasion. But who knows if they will take days, weeks, or months to begin.
0
satoshi sir
2 weeks ago
Israli Radio: the head of the Northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a "security zone" on the Lebanese side
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Damn, you bought up to 28c
0
satoshi sir
2 weeks ago
Israli Radio: the head of the Northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a "security zone" on the Lebanese side
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Basically, it sounds like they are stating that they worked at ABC for 28 years, when they explicitly say earlier “over 10 years,” which wouldn’t make any sense. They should say “over 20 years”, “over 25 years”, or “28 years”.
4
BennyS
2 weeks ago
“i have worked at ABC for over 10 years..” next clause: “Since the acquisition of ABC news in 1996, I have observed significant transformations in the nature of news reporting at the organization..”
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
It sounds like these statements contradict each other. I guess they could be saying that they were a passive observer of ABC news since 1996, but this framing is dishonest.
3
BennyS
2 weeks ago
“i have worked at ABC for over 10 years..” next clause: “Since the acquisition of ABC news in 1996, I have observed significant transformations in the nature of news reporting at the organization..”
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
“i have worked at ABC for over 10 years..” next clause: “Since the acquisition of ABC news in 1996, I have observed significant transformations in the nature of news reporting at the organization..”
4
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
Polymarket heavily priced the shooting
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
The shooting was not between two people, as the NYP erroneously reported (which has already been corrected). CNN has begun to report that the shooter was targeting Trump. This, plus favourable polling and a disastrous ABC interview by Kamala last week, will give Trump an edge that should last at least a couple days.
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
I would like to add that even if evidence emerges that the shooting did not target Trump, all other factors point to a positive trajectory for Trump as of now.
0
BennyS
2 weeks ago
The shooting was not between two people, as the NYP erroneously reported (which has already been corrected). CNN has begun to report that the shooter was targeting Trump. This, plus favourable polling and a disastrous ABC interview by Kamala last week, will give Trump an edge that should last at least a couple days.
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
The shooting was not between two people, as the NYP erroneously reported (which has already been corrected). CNN has begun to report that the shooter was targeting Trump. This, plus favourable polling and a disastrous ABC interview by Kamala last week, will give Trump an edge that should last at least a couple days.
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
👍
1
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Normally I stay away from disputable markets, but I see no reasonable dispute possible here. Trump is involved in launching a new token, which is fungible though not tradeable. Thanks MountainMan for the clarification.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
“$WL … token”
1
Justifax
2 weeks ago
WLFI is obviously real and Trump is *obviously* involved in it. If the coin is not fungible though it's not really a big deal as Trump has sold NFT in the past. Poly may resolve it as YES though. So may UMA.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
2 weeks ago
https://worldlibertyfinance.org/
1
Justifax
2 weeks ago
WLFI is obviously real and Trump is *obviously* involved in it. If the coin is not fungible though it's not really a big deal as Trump has sold NFT in the past. Poly may resolve it as YES though. So may UMA.
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
I doubled down
1
Mountainman
3 weeks ago
Yeah, you should buy more "NO", and do it quick! Free money!
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Ok
0
Mountainman
3 weeks ago
Yeah, you should buy more "NO", and do it quick! Free money!
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Isn’t this just free money?
5
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
What’s your favourite anime?
1
aenews3
3 weeks ago
DATA JUST LEAKED: IT'S A TIE!
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Laura Loomer is the source 😂😂. Please, MAGA, come bet on Polymarket. I want your dumb money.
0
KamalaExposed
3 weeks ago
Kamala Harris staged her entire event in Pittsburgh today. https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/1832513559705866453?t=2pg8910F77yHYAQum5Rh8w&s=19
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Although I have not done my due diligence for this market, I would feel confident fading @Mountainman on all of their other bets. I actually feel kind bad for them because even if they make this market, they are going to lose all of their other bets
1
Who will win the debate according to polls?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
lol magaheads are so washed (in the brain)
1
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Also, I didn’t delete my previous comment. Was it removed?
0
Justifax
3 weeks ago
If I was pumping I'd have sold on previous exit liquidity. Don't be a moron. If anything this works against me because I'd like to pick up at cheaper prices. But maybe that's what you're actually upset about cause you're a scammer.
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Hey, but this is still a fair bet. I’m open to a surprise loss
0
Justifax
3 weeks ago
If I was pumping I'd have sold on previous exit liquidity. Don't be a moron. If anything this works against me because I'd like to pick up at cheaper prices. But maybe that's what you're actually upset about cause you're a scammer.
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
Bingo.
0
Justifax
3 weeks ago
If I was pumping I'd have sold on previous exit liquidity. Don't be a moron. If anything this works against me because I'd like to pick up at cheaper prices. But maybe that's what you're actually upset about cause you're a scammer.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
I don’t care about eth slippage
0
Garni
0 months ago
Yes most definitely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5UCQOc0Zo8
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
BennyS
3 weeks ago
0 debate holders are about to become $0 holders
2
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
I mean either way, you’re still over-reading. A person can comment whatever they feel like commenting regardless of what they truly know/believe.
0
Greenfelder
0 months ago
Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
The quote you posted claims that it covers both??
0
Greenfelder
0 months ago
Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"
Another South American country bans X?
BennyS
0 months ago
And they wouldn’t ban X anyways
0
AugustoPinochet73
0 months ago
Is mexico considered South America?
Another South American country bans X?
BennyS
0 months ago
No
0
AugustoPinochet73
0 months ago
Is mexico considered South America?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
Yeah, I reread the FAQ and it seems to be the case. T2M covers both ocean & land, so what’s your point?
0
Greenfelder
0 months ago
Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
Isn’t this the case lol?
0
Greenfelder
0 months ago
Proof aenews doesn't know what he's talking about: "Uhh no... *facepalm*. This is not how it works. Surface air temperature (t2m) covers the entire surface both above land and sea"
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
Maybe models have improved since then? Or people just tail the winners harder
0
Greenfelder
0 months ago
for some prespective, march (which won by 18 points) was trading at 50-50 on april 2nd. This market is much, much closer than that and yet N shares at 1.2, CRAZY
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
I'm still going to make $5 more than you did
0
n/a
0 months ago
im hedged. yes breaks me even, No makes me riches
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
So you're going to do nothing with this market?
0
n/a
0 months ago
im hedged. yes breaks me even, No makes me riches
Will Barron Trump attend NYU?
BennyS
0 months ago
shut up
0
Mr.X
0 months ago
Insiders are betting on this right now. NYU is inevitable
Who is asked the first debate question?
BennyS
0 months ago
As a test, I bought 0.02 of a share for $0.0001. I don’t think it displays?
1
MarketBlogger
0 months ago
How is it possible somebody sold me 0.05 of a share 🤔 A couple of times, and almost surely when I had the best offer.
Who is asked the first debate question?
BennyS
0 months ago
They do a market order for fractions of a cent
0
MarketBlogger
0 months ago
How is it possible somebody sold me 0.05 of a share 🤔 A couple of times, and almost surely when I had the best offer.
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
0 months ago
source?
0
n/a
0 months ago
I am new at this so you shouldn't believe anything I say. But it seems to me that the land temperature was hotter yet the ocean temperature was cooler. I think it will be close
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
BennyS
1 month ago
That’s because the bomb that killed Ismael was planted from within Iran
0
XiJinPing
1 month ago
russia will never officially confirm this
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
BennyS
1 month ago
This is the only question that matters for resolving this bet now
0
BennyS
1 month ago
What does "within the municipality" mean?
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
BennyS
1 month ago
What does "within the municipality" mean?
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BennyS
1 month ago
transgender
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BennyS
1 month ago
trasncript
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
BennyS
1 month ago
T R A N S C R I P T
0
2024 September hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I might sell, but it looks like this market is trending in my favor
0
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
This isn't measuring that it's the hottest month, but rather the hottest September on NASA's data.
2024 September hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
ohhh shoot. No wonder I keep losing in this market LOL
1
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
This isn't measuring that it's the hottest month, but rather the hottest September on NASA's data.
2024 September hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Wym rigged? Rigged by NASA or?
1
n/a
1 month ago
ah yes another rigged market on polymarket and if it isn't rigged from the start, uma and polymarket will solve that
2024 September hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
September is usually colder than August, but we will see.
10
·
Liked by aenews2, aaron28a and 8 others
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
BennyS
1 month ago
This bet got me out of debt
1
What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?
BennyS
1 month ago
What happens if he says “Third World War”? He has done so in the past
0
What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?
BennyS
1 month ago
He said Maga multiple times in the other Townhall
0
Car
1 month ago
I watched his last Townhall on CNN, the full 1 hour, and he actually did not say MAGA once lol
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Money 💸 talks.
1
Hussieny
1 month ago
Greetings for you all,, What's your thoughts on this market?
Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?
BennyS
1 month ago
How many times has trump changed his mind?
0
XiJinPing
1 month ago
Trump on TruthSocial: "Rules will be exact same as last debate"
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
BennyS
1 month ago
This market should resolve in 14 years when Jack puts “he/him” pronouns in his Xgram bio
7
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
BennyS
1 month ago
If Hamas surrenders, how will this market resolve?
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
@TheBoyBilly how do you have a P/L of $2.17 with over 7 million in volume? 😂 😂
0
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
BennyS
1 month ago
Damn, this is stupid. I feel bad for whoever proposed this..
1
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
BennyS
1 month ago
Hillary Clinton was only 1" taller than Kamala and they did not shake hands.
0
n/a
1 month ago
1.) This is a new candidate with much less predicated vitriol. 2.) Trump camp wants the handshake for the height and size contrast. 3.) Trump went out of his way to say he respected and liked Obama--there's a noticable change in messaging to try and make campaigning less personal, or to be the "adult in the room?" 4.) After the assassination attempt, there was a calling from the media to and from both political aisles to turn down the rhetoric, they want a handshake for the 'civility' card. Call my theories what you will, but 20% is a bargain.
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
BennyS
1 month ago
Can someone resolve? It's a free $5
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
BennyS
1 month ago
Which way do you think this will resolve?
3
Justifax
1 month ago
The level of scamming in this market is unreal. Trying to reverse the resolution is one level, but the pumping and dumping is next level scuz
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
BennyS
1 month ago
Incredible that they managed to buy tens of thousands under .5 cents
2
Justifax
1 month ago
Car, they arent capitulating. It's the peak of their pump and dump scheme. They are just dumping now, with aenews as their leader who;s already dumped a lot after pumping in uma and here. They believe in nothing but greed and fleecing chumps.
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
BennyS
1 month ago
RIP Jeff Bezos. Follow your heart.
2
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
BennyS
1 month ago
nice
0
Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?
BennyS
1 month ago
Or is this market Fox v ABC?
0
n/a
1 month ago
I think @Xi is right here. "Trump has 0 leverage. He's down in polls. The only way he comes back is if he beats Kamala in debate. He's desperate to debate, so he will agree to Kamala's request of no live audience"
Live audience at Trump/Harris debate?
BennyS
1 month ago
Do we have a source on Kamala requesting no live audience?
0
n/a
1 month ago
I think @Xi is right here. "Trump has 0 leverage. He's down in polls. The only way he comes back is if he beats Kamala in debate. He's desperate to debate, so he will agree to Kamala's request of no live audience"
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Bet no then!
0
epicRNG
1 month ago
Anyone out here with a billion trillion dollars believe close to 99% sure that August will not be the hottest on record?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
What happened to modest gains?
0
epicRNG
1 month ago
Anyone out here with a billion trillion dollars believe close to 99% sure that August will not be the hottest on record?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I take it that you’re over 70% sure that it will be
1
epicRNG
1 month ago
Anyone out here with a billion trillion dollars believe close to 99% sure that August will not be the hottest on record?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
@junkbonds we need you to take it from here
1
BennyS
1 month ago
Viltalik, you gonna run out of money or?
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
That being said, I also sold off most of my potential gains. That was a wild ride!
1
BennyS
1 month ago
I managed to buy at 2 cents
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
I managed to buy at 2 cents
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Viltalik, you gonna run out of money or?
1
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
All the top Yes holder have negative profit. All the top No holders are positive. Insiders tend to make money :)
1
n/a
1 month ago
Insiders buying.
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
Uh.. she finished her show in London and then flew to Nashville. What, do you think she parachuted out along the way?
2
Sit
1 month ago
Her private jet just took off from London in the direction of the US. LFG
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
She’s going to Nashville
1
Sit
1 month ago
Her private jet just took off from London in the direction of the US. LFG
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
BennyS
1 month ago
Aenews bought yes?
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Yep, cloudy, just like I predicted.
0
BennyS
1 month ago
This cloudy Tuesday is going to change everything
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
BennyS
1 month ago
Pump an dump?
1
truthteller
1 month ago
Damn was hoping for some more cheap shares from all the NO suckers. Oh well, gg
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?
BennyS
1 month ago
Death
0
n/a
1 month ago
can anyone explain why this isn't 99+
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?
BennyS
1 month ago
They’re selling dollars for 94 cents
1
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
This cloudy Tuesday is going to change everything
1
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?
BennyS
1 month ago
lol. this you?
0
reasonflow
1 month ago
interesting https://x.com/danielgothits/status/1825337034023772533
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
BennyS
1 month ago
No signs of insider trading. The new top holder is a new user who put 70k+ on presidential betting and made a relatively minor bet in this market. Other holders have varied positions.
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
It's not very nice, but I won't complain as a no buyer.
0
n/a
1 month ago
Why is everyone selling?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Since some bettors are tailing you (and gopfan), selling and rebuying consistently might not be a bad idea.
0
n/a
1 month ago
Why is everyone selling?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Maybe they needed to buy a coat? It's going to be kind of cold out on Tuesday
3
n/a
1 month ago
Why is everyone selling?
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Guys, I’m in a bit of a pickle, I need to sell all my shares asap
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Oh shoot, I just remembered that the Copernicus data is not reliable..
0
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Why are people still buying Yes? The forecast is cloudy and August is usually colder than July.
1
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Also, it was kind of cold out on Tuesday
2
epicRNG
1 month ago
are NO bets from last month doubling down this month or what
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Yeah, I took a quick look at the Copernicus data and it looks like the temperature is going to go down.
2
epicRNG
1 month ago
are NO bets from last month doubling down this month or what
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I hate getting squeezed like this
1
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
In the Polymarket Discord?
0
Justifax
1 month ago
FYI, there's a bunch of code in the #science channel on the discord.
Election certified on January 6?
BennyS
1 month ago
yep. Local time should suffice though.
0
n/a
1 month ago
Market maker, you forgot to put the TIME OF DAY the election needs to be certified by in the rules.
2024 August hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
September is an easy "No" though, is that why?
1
epicRNG
1 month ago
I wish I could start betting on September as well already.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Glad I switched yesterday and mitigated my losses
0
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
this is an alt account?
0
humblePie
2 months ago
1.24
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
That’s before this market or no?
0
Car
1 month ago
Top 3 YES holders have a combined PNL of 1M$, while the top 3 NO holders have a combined PNL of -1M$. I dont know anything about this, but I know which side im choosing lol.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Yes, one of the main reasons. But I would recommend not touching this market lol. Get out while you can
2
n/a
1 month ago
“Things are going to continue to get worse because we haven’t stopped doing the thing that’s making them worse,” said Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who wasn’t part of the report. Schmidt noted that different methodologies or calculations could produce slightly different results, including that July may have even continued the streak. The primary takeaway, he said: “Even if the record-breaking streak comes to an end, the forces that are pushing the temperatures higher, they’re not stopping.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Saw this.
0
n/a
1 month ago
“Things are going to continue to get worse because we haven’t stopped doing the thing that’s making them worse,” said Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who wasn’t part of the report. Schmidt noted that different methodologies or calculations could produce slightly different results, including that July may have even continued the streak. The primary takeaway, he said: “Even if the record-breaking streak comes to an end, the forces that are pushing the temperatures higher, they’re not stopping.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Thanks raspberry17!
1
Justifax
1 month ago
Well, I ran into a bug and was going to shelve it, but raspberry17 has pissed me off so I'm going to make a point of going all in. Removed the decode on the str, now currently dealing with the non homogenous error.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I’m just listing some possibilities.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
Lol, fffing goofy. Have people double check their work is profoundly important considering the global heat death spiral that it seems to indicate.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Also, they may feel responsible for not being transparent enough with their process, if a misconception causes bettors to lose a lot of money.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
Wait, what? How would it make NASA feel uneasy?
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Because they would not want their employees to be betting here.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
Wait, what? How would it make NASA feel uneasy?
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
There's no delay in released data this month yet.
4
n/a
1 month ago
I am puzzled about all the people asking for and sharing info about Nasa's analysis. Although in general I appreciate camaraderie, I think this is not the place for it. Here, you risk: 1) making less money, because the more ppl figure it out, the less profit is there to make for you; and 2) risking the market for everyone, because it is likely to make Nasa feel uneasy. The delay in releasing data this month, plus a comment a few hours ago, point to this already. If you want to showcase your coding abilities, and get the praise you are probably after, please join a coding group or something. Here we are competing, not collaborating! Also, those asking for direct coding advice may as well simply ask for donations to their wallets--it is the same thing
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Nice try Bezos
0
JeffreyBezos
1 month ago
hello this is the owner of NASA and I came to tell you that this will settle No and July 2024 will be the second hottest July after July 2023. I have to get back to work now but I saw all of you are arguing to I came to help
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Based on the NOAA dataset, the SST difference is even higher with 18.87°C in 24 July compared to 18.90°C in 23 July
1
BennyS
1 month ago
Important note: "The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths, such as 20cm depth for NOAA’s OISST."
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Important note: "The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths, such as 20cm depth for NOAA’s OISST."
1
BenCM
1 month ago
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-second-hottest-month-record-only-slightly-behind-july-2023
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Key takeaways: ERA5 Air Surface Temp for 24 July is 0.04°C below 23 July. ERA5 SST for 24 July is only 0.01°C below 23 July.
1
BenCM
1 month ago
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-second-hottest-month-record-only-slightly-behind-july-2023
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
This data was available at the end of the month, and was the main reason for the late July "Yes" dip in the market. After Aug 1, the price of this "Yes" stock was pumped from 40c to over 80c. 0.04C difference in air temperature is significant, so I'm not exactly sure what models the whales in this market have been running.
2
BenCM
1 month ago
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-second-hottest-month-record-only-slightly-behind-july-2023
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Hold on, never-mind, hold your bet. As soon as I win this one, I'm going to join you on the Hailey Bieber bet.
0
JeffreyBezos
1 month ago
Guaranteed to be no. It is “increasingly likely” 2024 will be the hottest year on record, despite July ending a 13-month streak of monthly temperature records, the EU’s climate monitor said Thursday. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said last month was the second warmest on record books going back to 1940, only slightly cooler than July 2023. Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/2024-increasingly-likely-to-be-warmest-on-record-eu-monitor/article#ixzz8iHWh2Whb
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I agree. I actually plan to stop-loss my bet when "No" swings above 60c. Obviously, if NASA does a press-release saying 2024 is hotter, I will selloff, or if the price of "No" shares stays low for a long period of time, I will just hold as any upward movement would at that point would be due to the GISTEMP document producing a lower temperature. So, essentially, I'm not planning on placing any limit orders unless the price goes up significantly, and will only place a market order if there is bad news.
1
TheDrachma
1 month ago
Add on top of this Copernicus data and it's clear that there is no way that this is a 20/80 price.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Thanks for your work! I've been learning Python while doing some analysis for this bet, but simply did not have the time and skill to run the GISTEMP code. Good work.
2
TheDrachma
1 month ago
Receipts: https://pastebin.com/pgm0i0bC
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Put some money where your mouth is brother.
1
JeffreyBezos
1 month ago
Guaranteed to be no. It is “increasingly likely” 2024 will be the hottest year on record, despite July ending a 13-month streak of monthly temperature records, the EU’s climate monitor said Thursday. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said last month was the second warmest on record books going back to 1940, only slightly cooler than July 2023. Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/2024-increasingly-likely-to-be-warmest-on-record-eu-monitor/article#ixzz8iHWh2Whb
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I'm on Pacific Time, so it looks like this news was released in the morning for Copernicus (just a couple hours ago).
1
pengstromjr
1 month ago
No need to send all these links, they're all from the same data set by Copernicus.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Yes, but it looks like they just made a press release, link above.
1
pengstromjr
1 month ago
No need to send all these links, they're all from the same data set by Copernicus.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Here's the link that all those sources reference. Posting all these links may scare off prospective "Yes" buyers, but the quantity of news reports is completely unnecessary since they all cite the same source.
3
Nah
1 month ago
Links to show it’s a no
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-second-hottest-month-record-only-slightly-behind-july-2023
4
Nah
1 month ago
Links to show it’s a no
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I ran out of more money to buy "No". It's frustrating to see the shares go on discount after I fully leveraged.
3
n/a
1 month ago
there is so much god damn typing and whining about price action in this market, never seen this before!
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I noticed that anxious "No" voters have been selling at a loss. I plan to lock-in my profits when "No" is back in the 30c-40c range, then continue to hold for the results. Yes voters should at least stop-loss their profits and we can agree to disagree until future notice.
2
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I've held strong for a while now, hoping it will pay off! We are likely to have more information tomorrow. By the way, GISTEMP was updated on the 10th last month, so it's not unexpected that we will get results on or before Monday. Goodluck!
3
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Scenario 2 - No wins: You lose everything and stay awake at night wondering why you didn't stop-loss and lock in your profits when Yes was at a record high 😭
0
n/a
1 month ago
I want to win 🏆 big and go down in history. If I sell, has to be 88c+.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Scenario 1 - Yes wins: You go down in history as the reason I can't put food on the table for my family, and my children go to bed hungry.
0
n/a
1 month ago
I want to win 🏆 big and go down in history. If I sell, has to be 88c+.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
No, they are not comparing 24 July to 23 July and calling it “a virtual tie”. They are comparing 24 July to 24 June.
0
SmartG
1 month ago
this is a reliable scientist running models with GHCN+ERSST data, he calls a virtual tie but favors 24 July higher. New data is revised down from yesterday, but still it's closer to 120 than 119. We may still have one or two days of data to see.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
That’s because TempLS has a higher baseline….
0
n/a
1 month ago
The blog doesnt even tie with NASA historical. JUL 23 was 119 not 107 as stated in the blog
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
LAAAAAAA NIÑA
3
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I’m still anxious due to the inflated yes value. Currently trying to run the GIST source code to see if I can gleam value from that.
4
Josebetandcourt
1 month ago
Copernicus, which does use a different data set, says July 2023 is hotter. 16.948 vs 16.905 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world download the JSON and use ChatGPT to average 2023 vs. 2024
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Yes, this is essentially what I voted on. There is non-significant variation when you tie these results to the GIST data.
2
Josebetandcourt
1 month ago
Copernicus, which does use a different data set, says July 2023 is hotter. 16.948 vs 16.905 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world download the JSON and use ChatGPT to average 2023 vs. 2024
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Saw this too. Not global temp though.
0
0x03b08DF58990478765ACe29f7DD3D58a49c1215B-1720014453941
1 month ago
From Japan: https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Japan_sees_hottest_July_since_records_began_999.html
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
My only concern is that the ERA data might be preliminary and often gets revised. Unless my math is wrong, this is the most likely reason I would lose the bet. But looking at past ERA5 data, the monthly averages are roughly 11% higher than the GIST data. So, I made my prediction based on this percent difference between the datasets (which does not seem to vary significantly enough to tip the odds).
1
TheDrachma
1 month ago
I’m not a climatologist, but there are multiple articles and posts in the public domain by experts showing that ERA data conclusively show July 2023 is still the hottest. I can’t find evidence that the NASA data are systematically biased upward relative to ERA5.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I'm no climatologist either. Does the relative bias matter? This market only resolves based on the GIST dataset, which is actually biased down from the ERA5, but since it is being compared to itself that wouldn't matter, right?
0
TheDrachma
1 month ago
I’m not a climatologist, but there are multiple articles and posts in the public domain by experts showing that ERA data conclusively show July 2023 is still the hottest. I can’t find evidence that the NASA data are systematically biased upward relative to ERA5.
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Thanks for posting. The "Yes" side have not shared their results. I have done a much more simplistic analysis using the ERA data and also found that it predicted a lower resulting global temp for July 2024 than June 2023.
2
TheDrachma
1 month ago
FWIW using the dataset in the rules and a polynomial regression (degree 3) on bootstrapped samples of July temperature anomalies from 1970 to 2023, with 10,000 iterations, I generated a distribution of forecasts for July 2024 and find a 95% confidence interval for the July 2024 temperature anomaly between 0.939 and 1.175 degrees Celsius. I have also run other analyses. Anyone from the Yes side care to share their results transparently? Especially the “40%” claim
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Which NASA data are you looking at?
5
epicRNG
1 month ago
I'm 77% +/- 22% sure we got the hottest July according to NASA. How we saw 21% yes still surprises me and scares me a little bit... just a little bit
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Source?
0
n/a
1 month ago
Nasa said NOPE. I'll propose
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Please.. i need to buy more no shares
1
n/a
1 month ago
Thanks, can we take it back to 90?
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Hussieny.. explain why you switched to Yes
0
Hussieny
2 months ago
check the anomalies in resolution with those , they could vary in value a little, but not switch the rankings,, why are you still holding on yes? weird
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
What is the market reacting to?
0
temporaryname
1 month ago
ggs to the yes. you won
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I have no clue why you flipped, but you seem to hold strong buys and sell losses. Anxiety?
0
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
Do not sell based on my buying. I have a 77 iq (tested)
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
So all of my instincts are telling me to sell, but the data I reviewed says hold.
2
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
I am insider trading
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
But, it's funny, because looking at the top holders, I can see that in the past the "yes" voters have made good profits.
0
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
I am insider trading
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I think it's more likely that you've been convinced that someone else is insider trading here.
0
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
I am insider trading
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
I see that you bought for 60c and sold 30c, nice. That's surprising since I see you have 2+ months of betting (with profits), and this is the first time you've decided to bet on climate data.
2
yourrapist1776
1 month ago
I am insider trading
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Does Yes have a case besides insider trading? Share your perspectives.
0
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
Oh never mind, I read that right, you bought 865 shares at 93c each
0
n/a
1 month ago
Maybe you're looking at the wrong data cause my ERA5 calcs say 40% chance of hottest
2024 July hottest on record?
BennyS
1 month ago
40% chance, and you're still buying at 80c?
0
n/a
1 month ago
Maybe you're looking at the wrong data cause my ERA5 calcs say 40% chance of hottest
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSanoug_B9E
0
n/a
2 months ago
Bernie has said ‘We must defeat Trump, elect VP @KamalaHarris, and create a government that works for all, not just the 1%.’. That is an official act of ‘supporting’ someone.
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
Okay sure. A formal endorsement does not have to include "endorse" at all. The ambiguity here is created by Sander's non-reply when asked to clarify on whether he is endorsing Kamala Harris. This means that a resolution is unlikely to resolve "yes" at this point.
0
Colorguesser
2 months ago
the definition of endorsement counts, not your arbitrary requiroment of consistency of his language used
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
Because there is precedent for Sanders endorsing candidates officially, and because Sanders refused endorse Kamala initially, it's questionable whether he has given a formal endorsement.
1
Colorguesser
2 months ago
The Rules do not require that Sanders uses the word "endorsemen" they require that he endorses the candidate. Which he has done and which is described and depicited in the comments in detail
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
The problem is that he has said "I endorse" when endorsing candidates in the past. So by explicitly avoiding the term "endorse", he is avoiding an official endorsement. There is no other reason for him to provide non-answers when interviewers push him on his "official" endorsement. Support =/= Endorse
4
Colorguesser
2 months ago
The Rules do not require that Sanders uses the word "endorsemen" they require that he endorses the candidate. Which he has done and which is described and depicited in the comments in detail
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
If you believe me to be wrong, I'm selling 9 yes shares for 60c. Grab em while you can/.
1
n/a
2 months ago
Bernie has said ‘We must defeat Trump, elect VP @KamalaHarris, and create a government that works for all, not just the 1%.’. That is an official act of ‘supporting’ someone.
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
Yes, this is an endorsement. That does not answer the question of whether this is an "official endorsement" as per rules. I know that the title of the bet simply asks "Will (Bernie) endorse Kamala?", but the rules explicitly say "official endorsement".
0
n/a
2 months ago
Cambridge dictionary: the act of saying that you approve of or support something or someone
Cody Ko address allegations in July?
BennyS
2 months ago
I intend on proposing resolution tomorrow
1
tomn
2 months ago
can someone propose / resolve this?
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
can you provide a source on his rejection of the distinction between support & formal endorsement?
0
Colorguesser
2 months ago
There seems to be a misunderstanding here, either in reading or reasoning. He stated that he supports her and clarified that he does not accept any third-party distinction between his support and a formal endorsement. Therefore, since he rejects any difference between his support and external differentiation, he is, in fact, endorsing her.
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/did-bernie-sanders-formally-en-pVThqFjoR7OqkDa1ZDnt7Q#0
2
n/a
2 months ago
Just asked perplexity AI or Chatgpt - answer: Yes, Bernie Sanders officially endorsed Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. On Saturday, July 27, 2024, Sanders announced his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Portland, Maine.
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
nope
1
n/a
2 months ago
Just asked perplexity AI or Chatgpt - answer: Yes, Bernie Sanders officially endorsed Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. On Saturday, July 27, 2024, Sanders announced his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Portland, Maine.
Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?
BennyS
2 months ago
Roy Cooper had already dropped out when you commented this
1
Krause1221
2 months ago
Kamala Harris is expected to announce her vice-presidential running mate before the Democratic National Convention in mid-August. This means she is likely to make the announcement by early August, with potential candidates including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
Bernie formally endorsed Biden, why not Kamala? He said that they have been having discussions. I think Kamala might want to secure his endorsement before the nomination, in order to add to it’s legitimacy.
0
n/a
2 months ago
But even if it goes to Aug 7, there's just no reason to think Bernie is going to come out with his formal endorsement before he gets the reassurances he has repeatedly stated he's seeking.
Who will endorse Kamala?
BennyS
2 months ago
Those who are claiming that Kamala will be nominated on Thursday are wrong. The nomination will be in between Aug1 to Aug7. Slow down guys- Bernie has plenty of time to formally endorse Kamala
4