#577
Rank
99
Comments
35
Likes Received
16
Likes Given
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Waiting for it to hit 100c first
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
What a roller coaster this market has been. Stunning revelations, false 2AM promises, new friendships, buying YES at 1 cent the morning after the election... I couldn't have asked for a better group of folks to be on this journey with.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
What a roller coaster this market has been. Stunning revelations, false 2AM promises, new friendships, buying YES at 1 cent the morning after the election... I couldn't have asked for a better group of folks to be on this journey with.
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Best comment of the year, hands down
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BEEEEEF
2 weeks ago
Maybe the true "incredible extra information drop on Saturday @2AM UTC" were the friends we made along the way
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Also what's your discord? We should connect. Us YES holders are the minority in this market, we need to stick together.
1
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
Does someone know if RFK votes in Ohio count? They are published as "Candidate Withdrawn" by counties, but no news site has them included yet. Could be easily another 40k votes in Ohio = +0.7% others :)
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Atlas publishes 'None of these candidates' from NV as votes, so I would guess that these invalid RFK votes will come through as well. Anything goes at Atlas.. it's kind of like the wild west of the election results world
1
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
Does someone know if RFK votes in Ohio count? They are published as "Candidate Withdrawn" by counties, but no news site has them included yet. Could be easily another 40k votes in Ohio = +0.7% others :)
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
This is my range as well
0
50-Pence
2 weeks ago
It will be 1.96-2.04 in my calculations
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Click on Top Holders and look at the top NO holders. They all purchased 100k+ shares at 92-93 cents but yet they aren't buying any NO now that it has dropped in price by 30+ cents. What does that tell you?
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Well articulated Chris. We should connect on Discord. What is your handle?
0
ChrisV
2 weeks ago
Well that was a very unpleasant position to unwind. I didn't want to say anything before now but I suspect that the reason Nate is predicting 1.7m Other votes is that he's counting, you know, votes. The things Atlas is counting are not votes. You can't, for example, actually vote for Cornel West in California (something WindWalk mentioned earlier), because he's not on the list of registered write-in candidates. You can tell write-ins for him are not votes, because 20 million Californians could hand one in and West would receive zero electoral votes. Write-ins like this will not appear in the certified vote count, this Atlas guy is going to go dig them out of the precinct results afterwards and add them to his site. In Alaska (another state yet to report write-in "votes"), write-in votes for President are not a thing at all under state law and this guy still has write-in vote totals listed in 2020. Personally I don't think vote tallies should include things other than votes, but that's the resolution source. People still tracking the vote dumps don't get it. Write-ins are not going to appear in them for a lot of states. They're going to get dug out at the end and pasted on top of everything else. I'm not sure why this didn't seem to happen in 2020, but it logically has to happen this time. I don't know what's going to happen as there is a lot of uncertainty, but I ran some numbers and it looked to me in the ballpark of a coinflip.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Go easy on him. It's not his fault, the public school system failed him.
1
0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421
2 weeks ago
just realized I'm the second biggest Yes holder. I lost 800 bucks on No before I realized my mistake was not considering the late reporting of write-ins.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Because my win is not a sure thing. I think it's likely, probably around 65% likely, but not guaranteed by any means. If the price of YES goes high enough to where I think it's reasonably priced, I will sell some of my shares as a hedge against being wrong. I spent a couple weeks researching this position and spoke to staff at precincts in multiple key states. I probably understand the position as a whole and the risks involved better than anyone involved in this market.
1
Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
I could be the biggest liar in the world, and it wouldn't matter one bit, because what I'm claiming can easily and quickly be independently verified. And for some unknown reason, you decline to even try.
0
Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Have you tried loading up Archive.org to see if what I'm saying actually makes sense? Can you explain how that went? Obviously the market has priced this information in and it brought YES from around 6 cents to 40 cents. So if you're just ignoring this, it's not going to serve you or your position in this market.
0
Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
You don't need to take my word for anything I'm saying. Go check archive.org, load up Atlas, and compare dates. How much do write-ins increase relative to the outstanding vote? YOu will see that the total amount of votes doesn't change at all near the end of November but yet hundreds of thousands of write-ins mysteriously appear.
0
Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Bud this is how people were approaching the problem when NO was selling around 95 cents. The issue is that all votes are not counted sequentially like people have been expecting. During the last 2 weeks of November, this is when most states certify their votes. Around this time is when write-ins are published at the precinct level. And when this happens, Atlas pulls in that data. So you need to run the numbers to figure out how many write-ins you're expecting will come in between now and December 13th.
2
Clenc
2 weeks ago
If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Hahah nice :-) Yes I was waiting for more funds
0
YatSen
2 weeks ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
How did you know to get out? I was shocked when I woke up one mnorning and you filled me on like close to a million shares
0
YatSen
2 weeks ago
gg, i'm going to lose 10 bucks !!!!!!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Most sources do not include write-ins.. Atlas is weird that way
0
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
If he projected 1.7% OTHER, and Atlas has OTHER at 1.847%, how can those two things be reconciled? Nobody seriously believes the third party vote share will go down as ballots are counted. So the only logical conclusion is that his estimate excluded write-ins.
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Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Yes I think Billy is right. Write-ins are at 0.22%. So if you believe Nate is right and that Nate did not include write-ins, then it may be time to sell those NO shares.
0
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Nate's numbers put OTHER at 1.7% but Atlas already has us at 1.847%, and obviously the OTHER share is going to continue growing. So you would need to ask him that question.
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Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Just accept you've been bested and get out while you still can. I promise I'll make good use of your funds with the rest of the top YES holders in bora bora.
0
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Trump was on the ballot both times, and his favorability is pretty much the same. Harris is more popular than Hillary was, but not much.
0
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
2) On election day we were at 1.64% and now we're at 1.847%, which is far outpacing the difference from 2020. It's looking more like 2016 than 2020, and in 2016, the third party vote percentile went up an ENTIRE POINT (1.00%) from election day through the final results.
0
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Allow me to help you with your analysis Mr. Green. 1) Comparing to 2020 is a mistake because covid dramatically changed voting behavior. You should use 2016 instead. For example, older folk (65+) overhwelmingly voted in-person in 2016 and 2024 but overwhelmingly voted by mail in 2020. Why does this matter? Because 65+ people almost never vote third party. The reason why the third party numbers in Atlas are shooting up so fast as ballots are counted is because the remaining votes are mostly younger people, who live in big cities, in deep blue states. And in this election, that is the prime demographic for third party voting.
1
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Definitely wasn't on vibes bud. You had no clue why I was buying hundreds of thousands of shares of YES when everyone thought it was worthless. So don't pretend like you know why I was buying YES before the election occurred.
1
Green
2 weeks ago
8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Sounds like you really thought this through.. NO has never been cheaper, time to load up!
0
Clenc
2 weeks ago
The numbers are not good for the YES. On the last 2 million votes counted we are at 4.15% whereas if we were to reach 158.5 million votes (which is unlikely), the yes vote would need 4.85%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Yes what is your Discord ID
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WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Welcome to the team my friend, you made the right choice. Leave your discord and I'll message you any new info I might find in the coming days that would be relevant to your position
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WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
You mean before the election? Because the odds have changed based on the new info available..
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Green
2 weeks ago
@WindWalk2 is buying No's on his alts while you buy Yes's
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Ahh got it. Yes still lots of uncertainty at play. Well in any case, welcome to the team!
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WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Check the Activity tab, Top NO holder TheBoyBilly (formerly ~150k shares) just started buying YES at 31 cents. I estimate NO will probably bottom out around 35 cents after people have had time to think through this new info. Even if you intend on holding NO, makes sense to sell now and re-buy later at a discount as the market continues to react.
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
You seem awfully threatened by what's going on here.. almost as if you're not that confident in your NO holding. Because if you're right about NO, then this downturn would be good for you since you can buy more on discount. I'll sell you all the NO you could ever want if you'll do it for 90 cents.
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Green
2 weeks ago
@WindWalk2 is buying No's on his alts while you buy Yes's
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Going hard I see. I respect that.
1
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
We've created something beautiful here together. NO holders can now buy NO at a discount and YES holders can take some profits. I am so grateful to be apart of this amazing community. Fellow YES holders, if you want to chat on Discord, please reply to this with your handle
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Relax dog, you're only going to lose $65.. I think you'll survive...
1
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
We've created something beautiful here together. NO holders can now buy NO at a discount and YES holders can take some profits. I am so grateful to be apart of this amazing community. Fellow YES holders, if you want to chat on Discord, please reply to this with your handle
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
We've created something beautiful here together. NO holders can now buy NO at a discount and YES holders can take some profits. I am so grateful to be apart of this amazing community. Fellow YES holders, if you want to chat on Discord, please reply to this with your handle
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Added
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Given the price has incresed roughly 500%, I would say that the market has determined that the arguments hold merit..
1
NahB
2 weeks ago
@WindWalk2 - a clear pump & dump: the limit order book isn't deep enough for him to even sell 75k shares hahahahahaha
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
They are reacting to information that can easily be verified... If you know how to use excel, you will see quickly that NO holders are in trouble
0
NahB
2 weeks ago
@WindWalk2 - a clear pump & dump: the limit order book isn't deep enough for him to even sell 75k shares hahahahahaha
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Will message you now
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NahB
2 weeks ago
Petition to start a Market on if @WindWalk2 will dump his 1.53M trash before Saturday @2AM UTC!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
I intend on selling 30% of it as a hedge against being wrong, but don't worry, most of my trash will stay with me until the bitter end :-)
0
NahB
2 weeks ago
Petition to start a Market on if @WindWalk2 will dump his 1.53M trash before Saturday @2AM UTC!
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Alright folks I've got one last informational bomb shell to drop but I'm going to wait until Saturday at 2AM UTC to reveal it. This will hopefully give NO holders time to get out at a reasonable price before further market movement. Especially if you are a not very experienced trader or can't afford to lose what you've bet, I encourage you to think carefully about your position.
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Just sell it to the market bro, I can't pay you more than what the market is paying for NO right now
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
With every daily update, keep your eye on the write-ins number. You will see that number grow in states that already have write-ins reported and all of the normal votes have already been counted. Just because a states write-ins are higher than they were in 2020 doesn't mean they are done with the write-ins from that state.
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
I don't think I could pay enough for your NO shares relative to what you will get from the market.. I would probably sell because I don't think NO is going to stay above 70 cents after the market fully reacts to this info
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Notice how Write-ins in Florida are through the roof compared to 2020? They are at 41,691 in 2024 vs. 24,785 in 2020. Why might this be? One big reason is that people in red states like Florida that wanted to vote for RFK, but can't because he's not on the ballot, are writing him in. So what does this mean for Texas? If Texas sees the same increase that Florida did (~68%), you're looking at 22,698 write-ins from Texas.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
The below states are missing writeins in 2024. Even if we use 2020s write-in numbers (which is undershooting it because 2024 write-ins so far have been up around 48%), you get 163,156 votes. That's about +0.105% without factoring in the expected write-in increase. If the write-in increase meets the current national average at ~48% then you're looking at 241k votes. Anyways here are the states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
There are 16 states that are missing all write-ins, and many more that only have partial write-ins. Take a breath, go run the numbers. There's still time to save most of your money.
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WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Notice how Write-ins in Florida are through the roof compared to 2020? They are at 41,691 in 2024 vs. 24,785 in 2020. Why might this be? One big reason is that people in red states like Florida that wanted to vote for RFK, but can't because he's not on the ballot, are writing him in. So what does this mean for Texas? If Texas sees the same increase that Florida did (~68%), you're looking at 22,698 write-ins from Texas.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
So it's a win-win then.. you can buy no cheaper and I can hedge by selling YES at a profit.
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Google market manipulation. For that to apply, the information must be false or misleading. All of my info is easy to verify and is obviously correct. Which is why your shares are taking a nose dive right now.
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Notice how Write-ins in Florida are through the roof compared to 2020? They are at 41,691 in 2024 vs. 24,785 in 2020. Why might this be? One big reason is that people in red states like Florida that wanted to vote for RFK, but can't because he's not on the ballot, are writing him in. So what does this mean for Texas? If Texas sees the same increase that Florida did (~68%), you're looking at 22,698 write-ins from Texas.
3
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Another thing for my NO holding friends to consider. Cornel West is a socialist candidate who did well in Blue states (0.42% in vermont for example). For the state of California, His write-ins + all other write-ins will be reported on December 6th which marks the end of the canvasing period. If his vote share in California is even half of what he did in places like Vermont, you're looking at 30k+ votes easily from that guy alone in just one state.
2
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Sharing accurate information in the comments is not market manipulation.
0
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
@Mega Hey Mega, do you have Discord or Whatsapp? Would love to chat with you if you have a minute
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
You have 150k on the line, why are you depending on this random guy to do your thinking for you? Go figure it out for your self
1
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Yeah the 1.25 million profit will be helpful in covering my 200k losses
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
It's happening.. price of NO going down the drain quickly.. better get out while you can lol
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
I noticed your average price for NO that you paid is 93 cents. I'll sell you 200k shares at that price so you can see how confident I am. How's that sound?
0
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Also the spike should be higher this year. If you average Write-ins for the states where they have been fully reported, and assuming the remaining states follow this trend, write-ins are up approx 48%.
1
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
2 weeks ago
Bingo, this is what everyone was missing. The price of NO is about to take a nose dive. Write-ins not processed yet for California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and other high population states. Once these get processed, this will be a clear and decisive win for YES holders.
1
Mega
2 weeks ago
Let me clear something up for everybody. It's not as simple as "5% of the remaining vote needs to be 3rd party vs 1.84% so far". The reality is that most states are much slower at counting write-ins and provisionals, and late-sent mail-ins are more likely to be 3rd party. Every election, many precincts have late "write-in dumps" closer to certification. 2020, which finished at 1.96% had a lower other% than we do right now. Counting write-ins is a manual process that takes time, and leads to huge spikes near the end.
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
3 weeks ago
Nobody knows how many votes are left to count but she was polling at 2-3%+ and I don't really see her finishing with less than 1%
0
Monka
3 weeks ago
with 95.3 percent of the votes counted, the candidate received 1.83 percent of the votes. How much does he have to collect remaining to reach 2 percent? Answer: approximately 5.5% of votes. That's impossible
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
3 weeks ago
It's your money, but if I were you, I would not bet against Jill E Stein. She has been up against the odds her entire political career. She got over 1% popular vote in 2016, there's no reason she can't do it again here.
0
Monka
3 weeks ago
with 95.3 percent of the votes counted, the candidate received 1.83 percent of the votes. How much does he have to collect remaining to reach 2 percent? Answer: approximately 5.5% of votes. That's impossible
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
3 weeks ago
I'm still buying yes because Jill will bring it home for us in the end
0
sn3lling
3 weeks ago
no comments??
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
WindWalk2
1 month ago
My thoughts exactly
0
WilliamJPulteSuperFan
1 month ago
BIG JILL will get almost 2% on her own
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Was scared as hell betting against you.. I guess a broken clock is still right twice a day lol
0
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
Oof. Big loss for me.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
You have to doublecheck the chatbot sentence answers as they frequently get them wrong, Frank DiPascali was never sentenced and was not incarcerated when he died. 125 was the maximum he could face based on the charges
0
DeucePapi
2 months ago
Frank DiPascali – Sentenced to 125 years, though he passed away before serving time. Daniel Bonventre – Sentenced to 10 years in prison. Annette Bongiorno – Sentenced to 6 years in prison. JoAnn Crupi – Sentenced to 6 years in prison. Jerome O'Hara – Sentenced to 2 ½ years in prison. George Perez – Sentenced to 2 years in prison.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
I think it's a balancing act between incentivizing cooperation but also not letting a major player off scott-free when so much harm was done. Look up Deanna Coleman who was the star witness in the Petters Group ponzi scheme case. She got a year, and that case arguably justified more leniency because she blew the whistle and alerted the feds before they knew what was going on.
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
2 months ago
cooperators in bernie madoff didn't get time. I think they will let her go to send a message to other financial folks - cooperate!
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
The plea deal is publicly accessible on Google.. DOJ does not sentence people, that's the job of the judge
0
Eube
2 months ago
I'm guessing that Caroline Ellison has struck a plea deal with the Department of Justice.
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Ken, in the event that she does get some kind of jail time, do you think it's more likely to be greater than or less than 11 months? I think the market is favoring 1 year because that sends a stronger message and is more consistent with Salame's sentence but I'm curious what you think?
0
🤺JustPunched
2 months ago
That's a big bet, good luck!
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Key difference with the madoff defendants is that they were 1) Lower level company people and 2) Did not know the entire company was a ponzi scheme. Caroline knew everything about Sam's crimes, was complicit in most of them, and was the CEO of FTX's sister company.
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
2 months ago
cooperators in bernie madoff didn't get time. I think they will let her go to send a message to other financial folks - cooperate!
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Ryan Salame (FTX) pled guilty and provided some assistance to prosecution which the prosecution acknowledged - still got 7.5 years.
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
2 months ago
cooperators in bernie madoff didn't get time. I think they will let her go to send a message to other financial folks - cooperate!
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Her username was 'Fake Charity Nerd Girl', implying her charity work is disingenuous
1
WindWalk2
2 months ago
My fav quotes from Caroline's now-deleted tumblr: “I didn’t get into this as a crypto true believer,” the Ellison-linked account wrote in March. “It’s mostly scams and memes when you get down to it.”
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
"... the two key qualities of a “cute boy” are “controlling most major world governments” and possessing “sufficient strength to physically overpower you.”
0
WindWalk2
2 months ago
My fav quotes from Caroline's now-deleted tumblr: “I didn’t get into this as a crypto true believer,” the Ellison-linked account wrote in March. “It’s mostly scams and memes when you get down to it.”
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
My fav quotes from Caroline's now-deleted tumblr: “I didn’t get into this as a crypto true believer,” the Ellison-linked account wrote in March. “It’s mostly scams and memes when you get down to it.”
0
Caroline Ellison prison time?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Prosecution asked for 33 months in this case and presentencing report was likely not far off. Presentencing report for Caroline asking for 0 time. Also, with this guy, he did this fraud full time and continued even after the FBI interviewed him for an entire year.. clearly 0 remorse.
0
abdendriel
2 months ago
Judge Kaplan presided over US v Spoutz. “ Spoutz pled guilty in the case of US v. Spoutz to one count of wire fraud related to the sale of falsely attributed artwork accompanied by forged provenance documents... Dozens of character letters from Spoutz's friends, family, colleagues and clients written on his behalf begging for leniency were presented to the court including letters from former New York Yankees… Spoutz was sentenced by the Honorable Lewis A. Kaplan in United States District Court for the Southern District of New York to 41 months in federal prison”. And that’s just 1 count of wire fraud for faking a piece of art.
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
I think you're misunderstanding me.. New polling data could be released today or tomorrow that makes the Sept 17 value show Kamala positive in favorability. But if that occurs then it wouldn't matter because that date is already considered 'finalized'.
2
Pidor🐓
2 months ago
what? of course it's not resolved lol it was a tie even before today's datapoint
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Attention No holders: Screenshot the value for Sept 17, 2024 which is currently showing a tie. The rules specify that this date is already 'finalized' as the page was updated today (Sept 18 2024). So even if this number were to show kamala up by 0.1 at some point prior to this market closing, it would not qualify the YES holders for a win. But I'm certain they will try to dispute the result and claim this if it occurs.
2
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
The mistake your making with ERA5 is you're comparing the 131 anomaly to the NASA number instead of comparing ERA5 anomaly in 2024 compared to ERA's number in 2023. If it's an orange to orange comparison, the numbers are off by less than 0.003 celsius which would just get rounded in NASAs data. See here: https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1830618562555461996
3
aenews2
2 months ago
If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Also considering the chance of simple human error (they enter the wrong number and don't update it until after the resolution period for this market closes) or the chance that someone at NASA is aware of this market and attempts to manipulate the number to get 100:1 odds on their money. Crypto based prediction markets haven't been tested in the courts, and it's doubtful that SEC market manipulation laws apply to prediction markets.. so doing something like that could be seen by some unscrupulous actors as a low risk way to make a boat load of cash.
1
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
You're buying YES at 5% on the temp being 1.20-1.24, an increase of up to 0.05c.. which means you think there's greater than 5% chance that the temp will be within 0.005 celsius of last years number. That doesn't sound like 'umambiguously hot' to me.
3
aenews2
2 months ago
If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
If its 'unambiguously the hottest', then how do you explain ERA5's data? They are showing roughly 1.505 vs. 1.506 (0.001 difference). I know sattelties are a lot less accurate but that seems far from unambigious to me.. I'm sensing some serious overconfidence here.
2
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Sorry I misspoke, I meant that if Aug 2023 was updated to be higher. I did dump some of my NO because I'm about to take a big position in a different market. I'm curious if you ran your numbers through Gistemp v3 or v2 to see how that would affect the final number, and how likely do you think v5 is to be released within a given month as it's been 5 years since the last major update. If you think the monthly chance of v5 being released is above 2% then you're probably making a -EV trade in my opinion.
1
aenews2
2 months ago
If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
For these reasons and others, buying YES at 98 cents or above is all but guaranteed to be negative EV over the long run.
2
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Even if you had 100% of the underlying data that NASA uses to produce this figure and thus you modeled it down to 0.01 celsius and were certain you know their true number, there is still plenty of NO risk here. 1) NASA frequently updates the way it collects and processes this data according to their FAQ (google gistemp faq). 2) NASA regularly updates historical data with corrections (so if Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that would be very bad for YES holders.) 3) Gistemp v5 is coming, and NASA does not announce this ahead of time.. if it drops with this update, YES holders are up for a rude awakening.
4
2024 August hottest on record?
WindWalk2
2 months ago
Its looking like the official data will be delayed this month, according to my contact at giss
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
This situation kind of reminds of the whole 'finding the sub' fiasco... what does it mean to 'find' something.. and in this case, what does it mean to 'say' something..
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Really hard to say how it will go to be honest, he makes some attempt at saying the word but he doesn't seem to audibly articulate most of the syllibles. I think it's very possible that it could go either way
1
Apsalar
3 months ago
this is polymarket's black and blue dress. i'm starting to worry that i might be one of those white and gold morons
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Do you plan on disputing? You've got a lot of NO :o
0
Apsalar
3 months ago
2 days ish
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
If it does get disputed, how long will it take to fully resolve?
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
There's nothing in the rules that state that the microphone must clearly pick up the entire word. There's also nothing in the rules stating that you need to hear the utterance.
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
The microphone did not pick up the full volume of the utterance but the video clearly shows him saying it, and the official captions reinforce that.
2
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Rules state 'The resolution source is the video of the interview' and the official video published by CNN as well as the live broadcast both included closed captioning that clearly shows the word 'teacher' as it is being spoke. You can read it on his lips and you can read it on the screen. This info should be included with the UMA dispute.
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Same I also don't have a wallet... we gotta try to get this through ASAP lol
0
thakattack19
3 months ago
"my wife, the english teacher...?"
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
https://x.com/therecount/status/1829332988292702645
0
Glorp
3 months ago
He said teacher
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Here is a clip of him saying english teacher.. buckle your seatbelts friends: https://x.com/therecount/status/1829332988292702645
1
thakattack19
3 months ago
"my wife, the english teacher...?"
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Get ready for a challenge though, he said it kind of fast, I think it will be disputed if he doesn't say it again
0
thakattack19
3 months ago
"my wife, the english teacher...?"
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
He kind of slurred the words a bit, but he was definitely saying english teacher... his wife was in fact an english teacher.
0
thakattack19
3 months ago
"my wife, the english teacher...?"
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Did you hear it as well? How clear is it?
1
thakattack19
3 months ago
"my wife, the english teacher...?"
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
It's at roughly the 27 minute mark
0
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Did you all just hear Walz a couple minutes ago quickly say 'english teacher' when speaking about his wife? He said it incredibly fast
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
WindWalk2
3 months ago
Did you all just hear Walz a couple minutes ago quickly say 'english teacher' when speaking about his wife? He said it incredibly fast
2