#99
Rank
156
Comments
83
Likes Received
183
Likes Given
n/a
1 week ago
People are getting really specific with ‘establish control’. The purpose of that phrasing is to disqualify short raids into Lebanese territory. No one can describe the incoming incursion as a raid with the amount of equipment poised to move into Lebanon. Doubly, the purpose of the incursion is clearly meant to disrupt hezbollah infrastructure and operations in the south of the country, that will require a military presence that can only be described as ‘establishing control’.
n/a
1 week ago
Must be confirmed by Israel per rules
n/a
3 weeks ago
Toretsk is important for the supply line to chasiv yar
Justifax
3 weeks ago
It's a risky market. It can fall all at once. Tactical retreats do happen
n/a
0 months ago
It says official information, if he says I'm endorsing Trump accidentally but then quickly retracts his statement that wouldn't count ostensibly.
n/a
0 months ago
One single source from the Daily Mail? I'll take that bet
n/a
0 months ago
Nice
PolyToni
0 months ago
Now the forecast is at 35%. Almost free money here
n/a
0 months ago
Doesn't have to resign, he could also die.
VaithunPhuSang-Fabric
0 months ago
"It is very hard to accept that Biden will resign."
n/a
1 month ago
If your asking this question I don't think you should be betting here no offence
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Honest question, there is any fighting during weekends? I dont see maps moving
n/a
1 month ago
Did they change the title of the market ?
n/a
1 month ago
Witnesses? this guy and his 15 no shares
n/a
1 month ago
It's funny to compete with Americans (?), when you know Russian and understand how to quickly view information. How Kapotnya differs from Kashira and so on.. As a result, I earned $7800😎 I bought shares for 1-2 cents, having seen the news that drones were flying to Moscow, and one fell in Podolsk (Moscow region) Then I simply monitored district chats in different towns. It became immediately clear that at 6:30 a.m. they "shot down" a drone over the Moscow Oil Refinery! At some point at 7:30 a.m. Moscow time, someone simply posted a video of the arrival in one of the district groups in Kapotnya! Local residents began to threaten him there, they will hand him over to the police:) Here I found it, already on Twitter. https://x.com/angelys667/status/1830114144768409775 It wasn't super perfect, but it was clear that it had arrived, and here it is, it helped to earn another $2,500 By the way, I'm rereading the local chat now and realized that the second drone arrived at the refinery at 7:30 in the morning, lol. Already after the deadline. (the deadline is at 7 am (the first one was at 6:25 am and was allegedly shot down, no video). It was probably possible to sell the shares for 99, buy them for 0.5 and continue the dispute But that's another story...
n/a
1 month ago
Ok lol
n/a
1 month ago
You are missing something
n/a
1 month ago
Trump seems kinda underpriced? Harris declined .4 and Trump .6. Just need a trump+1 print to tie the change from aug 23rd... unless im missing something
n/a
1 month ago
Comments on this site underrated, everything is more funny because there’s something at stake.
n/a
1 month ago
You'll lose the dispute lol all the whales are behind yes
n/a
1 month ago
He says teacher man your grasping at straws, sure he doesn't enunciate properly but the word is there
Astronaut
1 month ago
This will prob resolve yes, i just would really like to know if the people actually hear him say teacher or use other sources or are biased, because i genuinly cannot hear that word
n/a
1 month ago
Don't engage wat for the love of god
n/a
1 month ago
You're*
Car
1 month ago
Youre*
n/a
1 month ago
Maybe it was North Korea
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
n/a
1 month ago
Right now the only reason that No is 8.7 is doubts that UMA will resolve correctly
n/a
1 month ago
lol
n/a
1 month ago
Refinery being hit : https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830138540081983933 , timestamp at same location before deadline : https://x.com/VyshnyaOstap/status/1830092157404807299
n/a
1 month ago
Nothing confirms Lol hows this ? : https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830138540081983933
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
Nothing confirms the drones actually hit. I assume mainstream media will pick the story up today if it's credible. This would be a pretty big development.
n/a
1 month ago
Lmao 'gOoD LuCk wItH a tEleGrAm ChaNel' THERE IS VIDEO OF THE ATTACK BEFORE 7AM LMAO
n/a
1 month ago
Wont let me post telegram links.
n/a
1 month ago
The exile nova telegram channel has timestamps and coordinates of video showing the refinery on fire at 6:30am local time.
n/a
1 month ago
The exile nova telegram channel has timestamps and coordinates of video showing the refinery on fire at 6:30am local time.
n/a
1 month ago
Timestamps and geolocation of the Moscow Oil refinery being hit by suicide drones is widely available... any remaining nos are grifting sowing, confusion...
n/a
1 month ago
There is video at 11:30, genius, of the refinery on fire lmao
Kirrilos
1 month ago
Drone hit the object but after deadline
n/a
1 month ago
Do the rules say that the market will be resolved according to when the firefighters arrive ? lol
jagajaga
1 month ago
if the video from X was at 6:30, then the firefighters received a signal, they drank tea, read the newspaper and then went to the exit at 7:59 https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/21735977
n/a
1 month ago
car trying to pump no
n/a
1 month ago
No damage you clown lmao
jagajaga
1 month ago
A drone was shot down in the area of ​​the Moscow Refinery. There was no damage or casualties, there are no threats to the operation of the Moscow Refinery. And another one was shot down in the urban district of Ramensky on approach to Moscow. 11:30 est /mos_sobyanin
n/a
1 month ago
all is fair in love and polymarket folks, sooner you realize that the better
n/a
1 month ago
Thats not normal flaring lol
Car
1 month ago
This is a video of a normal gas stack/gas flare which every oil refinery has and which is always turned on.
n/a
1 month ago
There is video of a drone clearing hitting the refinery.
TrumpCouch2024
1 month ago
I think the reporting on whether a drone actually struck a target within Moscow is unclear. Im finding some sources saying "reportedly hit", while others are claiming debrief from the shot down drones caused the fire at the Oil refinery. Tbh this is a bit of a punt
n/a
1 month ago
Question is also when the drone hit has to be before 7am local time.
n/a
1 month ago
Why do you leave the door open for rules cucks lmao? Just make the market about any damage caused by drones or missiles. "even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."
n/a
1 month ago
Lol
Car
1 month ago
Obtain proof that this happened before market end date and then click the propose button. Im chilling with 5k YES shares in the September market, so dont worry about me!
n/a
1 month ago
Or just say drone attack lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Why do you leave the door open for rules cucks lmao? Just make the market about any damage caused by drones or missiles. "even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."
n/a
1 month ago
But it clearly isn't debris.... the video shows the drone flying right into the refinery lmao
dreamer
1 month ago
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
n/a
1 month ago
I think you don't understand what the word wreckage means. Wreckage implies the the vehicle has already crashed and become disabled, if the vehicle/object is still in flight and active... it isn't wreckage.
Justifax
1 month ago
The fundamental problem with this market is there is specific language "wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage" .. which is exactly how these suicide drones work. All media in the war zones is subject to serious censorship and it's unlikely they are going to admit to "a drone successfully penetrated our defenses and hit its target". I mean, for real, not sure what the rule writers were thinking.
n/a
1 month ago
I mean theres a pretty clear video of a drone hitting the refinery dead on.. it doesn't matter if people were shooting at it lmao or even if they shot it... it hit its target. Pretty clear this should resolve to Yes.
n/a
1 month ago
You guys are morons lmao, he said teacher
n/a
1 month ago
Have any of the 2.5s done the math?
n/a
1 month ago
Does the new rasmussen get replace the previous one? or will there then be two rasmussens?
grappli
1 month ago
I'm guessing they're waiting for Rasmussen to drop before adding the Ipsos poll. But I'm sure they'll add both at some point today
n/a
1 month ago
Is there anything on the methodology, which polls are going to be included in the head to head ? not even all of the polls from the period 08/05 to 31st are included.
n/a
1 month ago
essentially impossible?
BayAreaVibes
1 month ago
Is it impossible for Trump to take the lead? That's too pessimistic, isn't it?
n/a
1 month ago
Hmmm i wonder if the russians will just try to take pokrovsk, that would put toretsk in a dangerous salient with only one meaningful supply line
Werty1
1 month ago
Natural defense lines and past performaces of the troops in the area.
n/a
1 month ago
Kinda confused about the divergence between this market and Chasiv Yar. Any Yeses care to put their case
n/a
1 month ago
Bernie precedence and outright denials of endorsement before and after the speech you mention as evidence.
Plutos
1 month ago
Bro he held a speech, it doesnt get more official
n/a
1 month ago
Betting on No and heading to the front grindset
n/a
1 month ago
Argument?
AusBettor
1 month ago
Harris a lock at this point!
n/a
1 month ago
NOs are scammers apparently because RFK's campaign says repeatedly that they have not endorsed Trump, for some very smart people this is enough to qualify as a formal endorsement. PM failed today.
n/a
1 month ago
https://vote.uma.xyz
LMNOP
1 month ago
link?
n/a
1 month ago
Now I'm not sure which way it'll resolve, but i don't want it for the money anymore, just to see these smug Yes holders who aren't betting on the rules or the market–but instead the intuition that whales will settle it to keep PM consistent
n/a
1 month ago
hehehe
hillary2win
1 month ago
be more zen
n/a
1 month ago
The YES voters failure to make arguments on the merits of the case continues.
Justifax
1 month ago
oh no wait, i was wrong UMA is going to ignore its own rules about clarifications and hand over 2M to a bunch of people who thought Michelle Obama was going to be our next president because they bet 50K or so. Lulz. Stop living in lotto land people. This is exactly how you lose it all on prediction markets.
n/a
1 month ago
I think everyone deep down knows that this market should not resolve Yes... RFK has clearly not issued a formal endorsement statements that they were not endorsing should be sufficient for that... In addition the fact that the only sources mentioned here are RFK and his campaign... well, as others have said i have no expectations, this is as much a general litmus for PM as it is for this market.
n/a
1 month ago
Where are you seeing that countdown
432
1 month ago
10 minutes
n/a
1 month ago
Do all the votes get released then or just some? thanks
LMNOP
1 month ago
Good luck boys. https://vote.uma.xyz/ Gonna be a wild f*ing ride!
n/a
1 month ago
There is a difference between the Merriam Webster definition of the word endorsement and a formal endorsement are two qualitatively different things. One is just a word, the other carries a host of legal qualifications.
LordDCF
1 month ago
Look up the definition of "endorse." I means precisely the same thing as support. Then look at this tweet:
n/a
1 month ago
The fact that people aren’t unloading YES…
n/a
1 month ago
Link please, that’s pretty damning
5to5000
1 month ago
RFK today when asked about his "endorsement" on fox:
n/a
1 month ago
The article does - moron - but does RFK Jr?
FishSlut
1 month ago
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.
n/a
1 month ago
“Trump] invited me to form a unity government and we agreed to be able to continue to criticize each other on issues on which we don’t agree,” Kennedy said” no where in the article does it say he has given a formal endorsement, tactical alliance is something different altogether.
FishSlut
1 month ago
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.
n/a
1 month ago
Luh muh credible market place
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
The two walles are saying the'll be voting yes, and I think they'll do that because this time Polymarket has made a clarification. Also be carefull because probably first UMA votes will be NO so they can do some inside buying. But really polymarket, you should et ride of UMA, whats the point? Anyways after reading both arguments I'm neutral, just gonna play the "What UMA will decide" game.
n/a
1 month ago
If polymarket clarifications count as rules then they are changing the rules ex post. At best is an egregious practice, and at worst is trying to avoid criticism for markets that have already resolved the other way.
TimeQuestion
1 month ago
If Polymarket clarifications count as rules, then that is all that matters.
n/a
1 month ago
The rules in this market clearly state formal endorsement, who could argue that a formal endorsement has been given after the party in question repeatedly denies giving said endorsement?
n/a
1 month ago
The campaign have repeatedly come out and said that they are not endorsing the Trump campaign, even after the presser and audience with Trump. PM's context flies in the face of its commitment to decentralized resolution. Adding context defacto changes the rules ex post, completely bad faith procedures.
n/a
1 month ago
The campaign have repeatedly come out and said that they are not endorsing the Trump campaign, even after the presser and audience with Trump. PM's context flies in the face of its commitment to decentralized resolution. Adding context defacto changes the rules ex post, completely bad faith procedures.
n/a
1 month ago
Still unlikely buddy
Slaylorswift
1 month ago
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1827531221196276112?s=46 Should be 99.9 % yes already
n/a
1 month ago
RFK campaign has repeatedly said that RFK has not endorsed trump before and after the press conference.
n/a
1 month ago
You can debate the facts of the case, but the other markets only resolved because no one disputed them. That could be for any number of reasons. The lack of a dispute, does not prove that RFK withdrew
BlueSky123
1 month ago
No holders be like: yeah November and September already resolved yes but this one should resolve no because nobody wasted $1500 disputing it like a retard and [insert linguistic sophistry here].
n/a
1 month ago
Which AI did you get to write this up its got good style
BlueSky123
1 month ago
A bet for yes is a bet for truth, reflecting a commitment to honesty and transparency in all aspects. It represents integrity, emphasizing the importance of ethical behavior and consistency in one's principles. It also signifies a belief in progress, embracing change and advancements for personal or collective growth. Cooperation is another key element, highlighting the value of working together and supporting others to achieve common goals. Additionally, a bet for yes is a bet for optimism, maintaining a hopeful and positive outlook towards future possibilities and opportunities. On the other hand, a bet for no is a bet for falsehood, suggesting a willingness to accept or perpetuate dishonesty and deception. It indicates a preference for deceit over transparency, leading to a lack of trust and reliability. It also points to stagnation, a resistance to change or improvement, and an inclination to stay in the current state without pursuing growth. Selfishness is another characteristic, showing a focus on personal gain at the expense of others and a disregard for collective well-being. Lastly, a bet for no is a bet for pessimism, embracing a negative and doubtful view of the future and potential outcomes.
n/a
1 month ago
Nikki Haley told Trump to court her supporters, RFK has given additional context that does not suggest a total withdrawal or endorsement
n/a
1 month ago
nikki haley remained on ballots
n/a
1 month ago
Thanks.
n/a
1 month ago
more, like 3. the timer is wrong
n/a
1 month ago
Specifically Shanahan says that they are going to be 'working with the Trump campaign" qualitatively different than an endorsement...
n/a
1 month ago
Shanahan just said *again* for the second time that the campaign has not endorsed Trump. - https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983
n/a
1 month ago
Shanahan just said *again* for the second time that the campaign has not endorsed Trump. - https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983
n/a
1 month ago
So the review period will last the full 2 days correct?
n/a
1 month ago
What does 'not ending' mean to you?
n/a
1 month ago
he did not say that, he said he wasn't ending his campaign. He literally said he was SUSPENDING his campaign. That's called dropping out
n/a
1 month ago
Dam Shannan just said they didn’t endorse trump … again!
n/a
1 month ago
The adding clarification is really irking me. It goes against PM’s resolution system, and looks like they’re trying to cover their ass in case this market resolves to no, since the other markets resolved yes.
n/a
1 month ago
Well he has no party to accept the nomination from hes running as an independent.
bko
1 month ago
I don't think you should consider it a technicality. He did not say don’t vote for me, he said thank you for supporting me in this campaign, but don’t worry about coming to work tomorrow. If he didn’t want to get elected he might have said something like "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for your president".
n/a
1 month ago
It's pretty clear that RFK has effectively dropped out of any serious contention for the WH... but the rules state : "his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on August 23, 2024". RFK has clearly not withdrawn from the race. Sure the case for 'No' is a technicality, but that doesn't change the fact that they have not been met. The rules have to be more specific in the future, setting clear and verifiable metrics... and no ex post 'clarifications'....
n/a
1 month ago
Thats great !! Ambiguity about the outcome of an event? Just change the rules ex post!
VibesGreaterRules
1 month ago
If the polymarket clarification counts as a rule, and many people think it does, it no longer matters whether RFK dropped out as the rules have been changed to Yes. Polymarket might have made a mistake to do this - but if you want to overturn Polymarket's ability to clarify the rules... you are going for a longshot as this has not been done before. Typically I'd expect UMA to vote 99.9% for clarification.
n/a
1 month ago
Agree that it is muddy, but he specifically mentioned the chance that could become president during the conference "And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major party candidates win 270 votes, which is quite possible, in fact, today our polling shows them tying at 269, and I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contention election."
n/a
1 month ago
Where is that im on the discord
PoLOLitics
1 month ago
Someone in the UMA discord for proposal #08118 said that Polymarket's source wasn't from the speech so it should resolve no....interesting....
n/a
1 month ago
All the Yes arguements in the comments are just vibes, the rules were not met technically, there have to be standards.
n/a
1 month ago
They should just have the few top holders on each side present their case to Chat gpt
n/a
1 month ago
i've heard someone say all of it, but not sure if that's true
n/a
1 month ago
How much of the bond can you lose in dispute if it doesn't go your way?
n/a
1 month ago
"“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated." If he did endorse him why is there a need to update the court filing to *correct* what the lawyer wrote?
fundamentalmisunderstanding
1 month ago
I was by far the largest 'N' on the Bernie formal endorsement market. The biggest difference between the two markets is the 'formal' part. Basically everybody agreed Bernie endorsed but it didn't meet the level of a formal endorsement. The only requirement here is an 'endorsement', which he clearly gave by saying that he is 'throwing his support to President Trump'. There was basically no news regarding the Bernie endorsement and far more articles/reporters saying it wasn't a formal endorsement whereas there's basically a consensus here that RFK did endorse. Finally, as far as I can tell RFK's press secretary claimed he didn't endorse BEFORE the press conference. So it doesn't affect the endorsement he gave afterwards.
n/a
1 month ago
Which context lol
0xE42c9d2ef
1 month ago
nevermind its back
n/a
1 month ago
The other RFK markets too...
aaaaadz
1 month ago
Wtf happened to the order book?
n/a
1 month ago
Polymarket really ought to hire a couple of people to adjudicate markets like this... the rules have clearly not been met.
n/a
1 month ago
As I understand its a democracy basically. If you have 750 USDC to post as a deposit you can dispute one way or another
ThatGuyMaybe
1 month ago
how do these disputes even work? Who is deciding?
n/a
1 month ago
Doesn't look like it
FyouMoneyOTW
1 month ago
Did anyone submit new dispute??
n/a
1 month ago
"The resolution source for this market will be live footage of the address or official information from RFK Jr. and his campaign" if the supposed party that has to issue an endorsement says it isn't an endorsement?
MOA
1 month ago
The criteria literally lists the word "support"
n/a
1 month ago
Man they said *verbatim* that it was not an endorsement, he even encouraged people to vote for him lmao
n/a
1 month ago
I guess because yeses are trading higher that the proposition is for the Yes?
n/a
1 month ago
Its true I'm the goat
Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF
1 month ago
Rich people dispute please. I need to feed my family. My goat got stolen by the neighbour, and he said he will also steal my wife.
n/a
1 month ago
How long should dispute last?
n/a
1 month ago
Campaign said it isn't an endorsement, obv trump is going to say it is, but it isn't cut and dry.
n/a
1 month ago
Notice how the net PNL of yes holders is massivley larger than no holders, aswell there $17K liq in yes $1K liq in no. All media and donald trump jr is saying its an endorsement. but you guys think you deserve a 5X, how cute!
n/a
1 month ago
Its convoluted sure... but if the campaign literally says they are not endoring verbatim ?
0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160
1 month ago
Look again. It says backing Trump
n/a
1 month ago
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. - https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
n/a
1 month ago
To the dispure I suppose
n/a
1 month ago
HES KILLING ME
n/a
1 month ago
This the question
0x0eb0C121C7daf0dEAd73038f39308e78f1B1F37A-1720031521708
1 month ago
He said he supports Trump, does that count? Or does he have to say endorse?
n/a
1 month ago
lmfao
n/a
1 month ago
Are they protesting the DNC or Israel? They were at the Israeli consulate... Not the DNC
satoshi sir
1 month ago
People are actually getting arrested while protesting the DNC and no holders be like "meh they were a few blocks away"
n/a
1 month ago
Why did you up your bet lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Bro your on the wrong side again lol
Justifax
1 month ago
Take this with a grain of salt, though 250K followers. BREAKING: Qatar requested Iran postpone its attack on Israel for ceasefire talks. Iran reportedly rejected Qatar's request. https://x.com/GlobeEyeNews/status/1824451528499007698
n/a
1 month ago
Neither probably, only Netanyahu wants a war, Israeli negotiators don't and neither do the Egyptian/Qatari. Both trying to drag out the process to stop an iranian attack.
n/a
1 month ago
Talks in Doha ended super early today... either very good, or very bad...
n/a
1 month ago
Talks in Doha conclude according to Qatari PM.
n/a
1 month ago
Nope
n/a
1 month ago
I forgot do things happen
n/a
1 month ago
Not a negotiating tactic just reality, Iran doesn’t want war but if it can’t get a ceasefire it has to show its teeth or lose credibility.
Justifax
1 month ago
It's real, https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1824086714639417487 though could be the US using Iran as a negotiating tactic, which is weird but possible I suppose.
n/a
1 month ago
Ok… let’s be real the chance of an attack in the next two days is low… hostage nego as we speak in Doha. Even if nothing comes of them it will take time…
Justifax
1 month ago
It's the opposite, actually. I'm too risk averse.
n/a
1 month ago
Copium**
n/a
1 month ago
Yes cheap, likelihood of spike in price till friday: high, likelihood of attack by friday: moderate-low, price of ceasefire hedge? : Low.
n/a
1 month ago
Yes cheap, likelihood of spike in price till friday: high, likelihood of attack by friday: moderate-low, price of ceasefire hedge? : Low.
n/a
1 month ago
If negotiations fail, this is likely, Iran won't want to appear as if they are ruining negotiations (they don't want a larger war) but if netanyahu successfully prevents a deal, then Iran will look better when they attack.
n/a
1 month ago
No way Netanyahu will compromise and agree to fully withdraw from Gaza (which is the only way Hamas agrees). Negotiations will fail Thursday, then Iran will attack Thursday night / Friday.
n/a
1 month ago
It will be a "Yes" if there is a ceasefire.
JeffreyBezos
1 month ago
is this an an opposite market? This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is no official ceasefire agreement... so if you buy the Yes market you are betting on No ceasfire, and if you buy the NO you are betting that there WIll be a ceasfire? is this correct or am i understanding it wrong
n/a
1 month ago
Netanyahu does not want a deal. Most important sticking point in any ceasefire negotiation.
n/a
1 month ago
Ceasefire negotiation just broke down - Hamas' representative in Lebanon said Tuesday that the group will not send a delegation to this week's round of cease-fire talks on Thursday, the New York Times reported.
n/a
1 month ago
What happened to your nos bro lol
n/a
1 month ago
damn so ceasefire is a very distant possibility...
n/a
1 month ago
Mostly likely, the outcome from all this sabre rattling will either be a ceasefire or an Iranian strike. If iran can't pressure a ceasefire, it will have to attack. After the supreme leader and weeks of statements, iran would look utterly feckless and weak.
n/a
1 month ago
Reported.
n/a
1 month ago
BREAKING: Iran begins attack on Israel, launching dozens of drones that’ll take hours to arrive
n/a
1 month ago
There she goesss, sorry yes's
n/a
1 month ago
Lol i can see that, I was yes but i think tn is a nothing burger
skrtttttttttt
1 month ago
lmao august ur not wrong but it sounds like copium when ur holding 400 nos
n/a
1 month ago
Sure, Iranian forces are prepared now for strikes, but Hezbollah is supposed to attack first. And Israel intends to strike pre-emptively if they believe an attack is iminent. They'll be more concrete signs of an impending attack before it really happens.
n/a
1 month ago
There is plenty to suggest.
n/a
1 month ago
Lmao bro its not coming tonight, its coming but not tonight. And i have you to thank for pumping yes lmao, imo i got a cheap no
n/a
1 month ago
You bought no at a too high price and are trying to pump it …
n/a
1 month ago
Don't forget, Iranian leaders do not want a war. They will try to create maximum pressure without fighting if possible. Stretch out the wait for their attack is a tactic in of itself.
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1 month ago
Good work man.
NowItsMyTime
1 month ago
"Was the first time I did bet in this market. Im 3% profitable. I know what Im doing." Know I selled with profit :)
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1 month ago
nothing really to suggest it will be tonight ... pure speculation aside from the fact that Iran has probably decided to carry out *an* attack
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1 month ago
Hamas will not send representatives to the Aug 15th meeting
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2 months ago
https://t.co/rCwx4g9DtP
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2 months ago
Iran says top priority is Gaza ceasefire and well not derail efforts, Americans, Qatar, and Egypt proposed Aug 15th for further discussions, Israel will send a delegation.
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2 months ago
Iran says top priority is Gaza ceasefire and well not derail efforts, Americans, Qatar, and Egypt proposed Aug 15th for further discussions, Israel will send a delegation.
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2 months ago
Doesn't preclude a "'Non' Devastating Attack"
IWillReturn
2 months ago
The US has warned Iran that it could suffer a devastating blow if it launches a major attack on Israel, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing an unnamed US official. The warning has been conveyed to Tehran both directly and through intermediaries, the US official says without elaborating.
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2 months ago
lmaooo
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2 months ago
will you buy 150 No at 58 cents, please my family is starving
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2 months ago
Yea, tend to agree, Israel also said they've decided to alert people if an attack is imminent. So another nothing burger tn
dcue86
2 months ago
it's still too soon they need more time to prepare for an Israeli response.
n/a
2 months ago
This is also true.
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2 months ago
Nothing ever happens
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2 months ago
UK Just issued a NOTAM as well now.
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2 months ago
Egypt airlines cancelled flights before 1973 war... and the 2020 attacks on al-Assad airbase...
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2 months ago
also the murder coverup, sex scandal, union beef, tbh the perfect democratic candidate lmao (I'm not a republican)
1PrecentRicher
2 months ago
Josh Shapiro was cancelled after his stand on Israel and Palestine came out yesterday. What a fall
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2 months ago
lmao
winbet
2 months ago
Its not over yet
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2 months ago
Kurilla in Israel as well
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2 months ago
Shoigu visiting Iran today. Dont think its tonight, bois https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/putin-s-security-council-chief-visits-iran-amid-mideast-tensions?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
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2 months ago
Cyber doesn’t count
SmartG
2 months ago
how to confirm cyber attacks?
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2 months ago
I think the suggestion is that the attack must arrive within Israel by the deadline, as it states on Israeli airspace, etc.
dcue86
2 months ago
So by "initiate" do they just have to launch by the deadline?
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2 months ago
There is a strong incentive to deceive and sow panic by gives false starts to make the defenders jittery... some response is still all but guaranteed.
matic1
2 months ago
If Iran had made a move, it would have done it last time, and it would not have dragged on until now. The country has been infiltrated into a sieve by the Americans.
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2 months ago
There is none - made up...
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2 months ago
Source??
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2 months ago
Point being its to late for cheap/slow shaheds to launch. To make their attack potent theyll want fast and slow projectiles to hit at the same time... hence the unlikeliness.
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2 months ago
They could... but it would likely have to be pretty weak, because the slow drones will take to long. They could send BMs but theyll want to use cheap shaheds to soak up iron dome defenses.
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2 months ago
They could... but it would likely have to be pretty weak, because the slow drones will take to long. They could send BMs but theyll want to use cheap shaheds to soak up iron dome defenses.
0x0085EC21a8b14Adbe19785241e1a4831189465D0-1720113791043
2 months ago
Is there really a 5% chance they will attack at like 3am over there in the next 3.5 hours?
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2 months ago
Iranian drones will take too long to arrive at this point ... takes 8-9 hours for them to arrive.
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2 months ago
Markets pricing in a "70% chance of the Fed cutting by 50 bps in September" - https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1819355060792443207
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2 months ago
Israel PM Netanyahu says “we launched strikes on 3 fronts during the past days” Israeli PM is speaking now.
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2 months ago
The rules state 'For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory.' Your distinction between covert and military is an arbitrary one.
dreamer
2 months ago
A covert operation is not a military action on another country. Especially if the assumed perpetrator is not claiming the act.
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2 months ago
It seems that the market should be resolved... "officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. " Can anyone tell me that there is not a consensus of credible reporting?
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2 months ago
"officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting "
dreamer
2 months ago
Yeah, at best that is a covert operation and getting Israel to claim responsibility is going to be impossible.
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2 months ago
"Hezbollah leadership claim's attack failed to kill any senior leadership" https://x.com/IntelDoge/status/1818337347400089626
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2 months ago
There are two seperate links there.
0xa365E32c8590cc1Be5D38149b96c843B72A17166-1722190956056
2 months ago
Source link doesnt work do you have another one
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2 months ago
" Medical volunteers for Israel have just put out an urgent call for general surgeons, thoracic surgeons, trauma surgeons, and anesthesiologists to help staff Israel's Northern hospitals. If that's you, can DM me for details and I'll put you in touch. " https://x.com/YoniFreedhoff/status/1817607374787564027
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2 months ago
https://x.com/IntelCrab/status/1817619699745632743 , https://x.com/cvetko35/status/1817619075868082445
SaltyPizza
2 months ago
Source?
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2 months ago
More Merkava's moving to the border