Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between September 17, 2024 and September 30, 2024

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Holy shit PBET just told everyone why it should be no:

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

This is pure degeneracy. Good Luck to yes and No.

0

Airdrops by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Literally scheduled to unlock one minute after close. I guess you can bet if it gets unlocked early.

0

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Restaking protocol Eigenlayer will unlock its highly anticipated token, EIGEN, at 9 p.m. PST on Monday (04:00 UTC on Tuesday) and trading is set to start on Binance an hour later. LMAO. Its scheduled to unlocks one minute after close?

Airdrops by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if tokens from the Eigenlayer stakedrop are unlocked and live for trading/swapping by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

0

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/30/eigenlayer-tokens-to-be-released-in-coming-hours-futures-trade-at-fully-diluted-68b/

Airdrops by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/30/eigenlayer-tokens-to-be-released-in-coming-hours-futures-trade-at-fully-diluted-68b/

0

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Restaking protocol Eigenlayer will unlock its highly anticipated token, EIGEN, at 9 p.m. PST on Monday (04:00 UTC on Tuesday) and trading is set to start on Binance an hour later. LMAO. Its scheduled to unlocks one minute after close?

Airdrops by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Restaking protocol Eigenlayer will unlock its highly anticipated token, EIGEN, at 9 p.m. PST on Monday (04:00 UTC on Tuesday) and trading is set to start on Binance an hour later. LMAO. Its scheduled to unlocks one minute after close?

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

US officials are currently not describing these Israeli raids as a ground incursion, even as they continue to carefully brace for the possibility of a limited ground operation that could come in the coming days.

0

n/a

1 week ago

US confirms earlier Arab media reports of Israeli raids. Enjoy your 5 No to bei 0$ https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1p0tx1b00003b6mp84lj4hj

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

MONTHS: The incursions follow months of similar covert missions in which Israeli special forces briefly crossed the Lebanon border for reconnaissance, but have increased in intensity in recent days as commanders prepared for a wider maneuver, three of the officials said.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

This market ends in 12 hours and 45 minutes. This market is no until it happens and imminent doesn't mean it's happened yet.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

Imminent doesn't necessarily mean in the next 15 hours. This will be a fun market to watch if it comes down to the wire.

1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

True but this doesn't update 24/7 it's probably locked. Just a matter of waiting five hours to confirm that there are no random friday night updates. Odds of it dropping are probably less than 1% now.

1

LebronOver

2 weeks ago

It would be super funny if it ended up finalizing to a tie though

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

I don't think they're referring to you. A handful of users try to manipulate public sentiment to trade positions without ever planning on holding to close. As in the people who tried to claim the 17th was a win despite it not meeting the criteria established in the rules for a win. The sooner you learn that some people will buy a position, pump it and then dump it on the people buying, the better you'll be.

1

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

2 weeks ago

Why do you call us scammers? We had just as much possibility to lose as anyone. We can’t manipulate the data in our favour.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

@trifactor you got lucky on this market looks like you'll be 2 for 2. Please next time read the rules before you bet so you don't get liquidated for 5% gains.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

I've been saying I expected this to close yes since Wednesday (check old comments. /^_^/. Old unfavorable polls aging out and new post debate favorable polls meant it had a high liklihood of hitting. Managed to trade decently based off the uncertainty though.

2

coconutPilled

2 weeks ago

well looks like dumb ass scammers and bond attempters car&mango most likely got bailed out.. sad day but still some hope

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

If any no wants to get 1.6 per share before it drops to $0.0 you're welcome to fill my yes sell at 98.4. I don't wan to wait two days for the extra 1.6 cents per share.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

Currently 4:40 eastern (the time the site uses) wonder when their work day ends?

1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

Would need a very bad favorability poll or multiple to drop it from 46.7 this time. Most polls coming in now will be post debate which will skew favorable. But ya you're right it's not locked.

0

coconutPilled

2 weeks ago

yes holders praying to god their 99c bonds don't explode with basically any poll release while no holders relax with their lottos

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

Lmao, no odds aren't worth $.15. Probably closer to $.03-$.04 at the max. Yes it's possible a very negative poll could come out today, but Fridays are usually slower for poll releases. Good luck no voters but it should be about as close of a lock as we can get. That being said if I get liquidated GGWP to no voters.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

They have you have to sort by added not surveyed.

0

basedd

2 weeks ago

they havent added a single poll after the clarification. Might be a ui error

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

Also who was the first to see the favorable update this morning and snag a huge bag? I was refreshing but missed it. Was in the high 90's before I could buy.

1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

Alright everyone so we don't have a repeat of the 17th. The first update on the 17th also put Kamala favorable .1 - 46.6 v 46.7. Further updates later that day dropped it to 46.6 v 46.6 which caused the tie on the 17th. I really really don't expect it to happen again especially since her newest polls are so positive. But don't think this market is lock. Other updates will likely come out over the next 4-6 hours which could change the closing numbers for the day.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

This market is definitely close to 50/50 as someone who has been watching this for the last few weeks. I could totally see another post debate poll come through tomorrow that bumps it into yes territory. However that of course isn't guaranteed. Definitely will be fun watching tomorrow for updates. I don't think there will be any more updates for about 12 hours -14 hours but it's not impossible for a late night us update to occur.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 weeks ago

What's bullshit the clarification literally restates the rules that are listed. You can't just ignore the rules and make up your own rules to try and create a result that doesn't match the rules.

5

TheFinalWord

2 weeks ago

this is kind of bullshit - i bet on this specifically because of the rules and the way they are. You can't just choose to have your own interpretation of how the market is supposed to work and dispute that.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

I.e. if they add polls for the 18th - 20th on the 23rd it will impact the numbers on the 23rd it won't change old numbers.

0

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The numbers on the 20th are locked future poll data will impact future dates they don't impact dates retroactively.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The numbers on the 20th are locked future poll data will impact future dates they don't impact dates retroactively.

1

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

3 weeks ago

think they're ultimately going to rate this a YES. As you all stated these polls are lagging and new data is coming in. They're still going to be calculating poll data all the way up until the 27th and we know she has been polling extremely favourable.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

lmao they're proposing it. Someone is going to be out their money.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The value of the purple line is 46.6 you dumb fuck the value of the purple line isn't .1. The .1 is the rounded difference.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

https://postimg.cc/JsMNp7p7 Top right of the graph shows the value of the purple line on the 17th as 0.1%.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The calculations on 534 site says it's 46.6 v 46.6 Scammer fuck.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

I just prefer the calculations done by the 534 site vs the ones done by people on this site. The rules say that we are using the purple line at one decimal place to make the determination. 534 published the purple line to 1 decimal place and it was 0.1%. Because 'no' votes don't like it they want to do the calculations themselves based on underlying numbers rather than accept 534's interpretation.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

It's not calculating the difference of the lines like you are implying.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why are you calculating the trendline instead of accepting the calculation made by the 534 site for what the trendline was?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The rules state it's calculating the value of the purple line v orange line rounded to one decimal point.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why are you calculating the trendline instead of accepting the calculation made by the 534 site for what the trendline was?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Read the rules. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

Why are you calculating the trendline instead of accepting the calculation made by the 534 site for what the trendline was?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Read my latest comment and if you're still trying to scam people get fucked.

0

fkarasek

3 weeks ago

This should be a wrap. The 17th wasnt a tie according to 538. It clearly states "favorable" when you hover over the day

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The metric used as defined in the rules is the favorable trend line v the unfavorable trend line rounded to one decimal. I.E. 46.6 v 46.6. This and the .1 difference can be explained in the following way 45.57 v 46.63 both round to 46.6 although the difference between the two is .1. However since the rules state the trend lines rounded to 1 decimal point will be used to determine a winner this is a tie. The rules specify it's the value of the lines purple and orange lines rounded to one decimal point not the difference of the two lines rounded to one decimal point. I understand this is confusing but don't bet in markets you don't understand and don't bet unless you read the rules. The rules are clear about what constitutes a win and it's why 70% of the value of this market was bet after the tie on the 17th became clear.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Honestly I expected yes to eventually win this market as I've stated before however I hope is ends with a no to fuck the yes scammers.

5

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Please explain how 46.6 v 46.6 is not a tie?

1

fkarasek

3 weeks ago

This should be a wrap. The 17th wasnt a tie according to 538. It clearly states "favorable" when you hover over the day

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Bruh @OddsBall trying to scam bettors 46.6 v 46.6 is a tie per the rules where it states it rounds to 1 decimal point. Rounding to two decimal points Kamala would have won on the 17th. Read the rules.

1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Back to 46.6 v 46.6 if today ends with another tie it will be hilarious.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

A rally might bring up her polling numbers but it isn't guaranteed and it won't happen by Friday. Polls take multiple days to release after an event to show the impact.

0

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

3 weeks ago

I don't understand this, don't we have 2 more days including a rally in Wisconsin?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Ya I agree it should be just think there is a non zero chance they try and get involved.

1

RobinhoodOO7

3 weeks ago

I know what it is...Im saying there is nothing to clarify. It's crystal clear

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

A clarification is when Polymarket changes the rules of the market mid market. They try to avoid it but it's gotten them in trouble with the community.

0

RobinhoodOO7

3 weeks ago

Whats to clarify? Everyone was betting on the correct interpretation and discussing this rule nuance in previous markets...It's expressly in the rules

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

More than half the market has been today * it would be a crime to clarify days after the fact.

1

coconutPilled

3 weeks ago

you sound confident

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

I don't trust Poly with their clarifications. The rules state the market is no. More than half the market has been bet in the last day it would be a crime to clarify. But I could totally see them clarifying and screwing over voters. After the RFK markets my eyes were opened.

1

coconutPilled

3 weeks ago

you sound confident

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

@aaron28a The immediate post debate polls have been some of the best for her and lifted Kamalas numbers significantly. I'm assuming they'll continue to come through and gently lift her older numbers if she gets any more above average post debate polls, but I don't think it will resolve tomorrow. My guess is it will probably come down to Friday and if any very good/polls come through before then..

0

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Is it likely that favorable will close out yes by Friday, but it is not a finalized market already.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

I think that's also why the market is at 75%. I'm guessing it will be closer to 50/50 tomorrow based off how tomorrow looks assuming she doesn't get a terrible or great poll before then.

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

I don't understand this part, can you explain?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The immediate post debate polls have been some of the best for her and lifted Kamalas numbers. I'm assuming they'll continue to lift her older numbers, but I don't think it will resolve tomorrow. My guess is it will probably come down to Friday and if any very good polls come through.

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

How's it likely if she's at 0.3 now?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Unless you know Poly is going to rug us with a clarification you're wrong on yesterday. But I agree that it will *likely* close yes by Friday.

0

coconutPilled

3 weeks ago

heh i fell for that too, unfortunately they're rounding the margin not each individual number, and after the polls tomorrow there's a very good chance of favorability for another day

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Also Poly could totally rug no voters by clarifying that the 17th should count even though it didn't meet the definition of a win. That would be bullshit but they could still do that.

1

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

So good luck to yes the numbers should be finalized for today, and it currently stands at 46.4 favorable verse 46.7 unfavorable.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Is it likely that favorable will close out yes by Friday, but it is not a finalized market already.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The market is based off the favorable trend line to one decimal point the 17th was 46.6 v 46.6. It is correct to say that if the market was rounded to two decimal points yes would have won for the 17th. But the rules establish this is a no.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Let gets something straight the rules establish "specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date" - the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If it was rounded to two decimal points Favorable would have won yesterday. But the numbers were 46.6 v 46.6. This means per the established rules that the market was a tie and the resolution was no.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

If old polls are added it will be added to that days numbers not prior days numbers

0

WindWalk2

3 weeks ago

Attention No holders: Screenshot the value for Sept 17, 2024 which is currently showing a tie. The rules specify that this date is already 'finalized' as the page was updated today (Sept 18 2024). So even if this number were to show kamala up by 0.1 at some point prior to this market closing, it would not qualify the YES holders for a win. But I'm certain they will try to dispute the result and claim this if it occurs.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

No result yesterday qualified as a tie per the rules.

2

betyonko

3 weeks ago

Isn't this market already resolved?

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

50pence but 22k shares yesterday at $.999 before the day closed at no. And now it's back to unfavorable. Will be absolutely insane if this closes no again. But i'm pretty sure it will flip to favorable by Friday.

0

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Well it happened rounding put it's at .1 ahead. but rounding also states it's 46.6 v 46.6. Per the rules this would be a tie so Kamala is not ahead.

4

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

If you're buying at 99.8 just know there is a risk that it will drop to unfavorable if further negative updates come out. It's not likely but it is possible.

2

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Kamala Harris has positive favorability! Should be noted it could still change before end of day and the market is based off end of day numbers.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Fuck guy, I felt bad losing $500 in profit on a bet that I thought was a sure thing. Sorry. :/

0

Hungrytoad

3 weeks ago

new market idea guys … WILL HUNGRY TOAD ROPEMAX place your bets in boys it’s a dirty world we live in

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Dude lost 52k. omfg.

0

Hungrytoad

3 weeks ago

can someone explain where my money went ?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Bro you just got scammed. They also put up a 9k share sell wall at that exact moment, and then was constantly dumping at $.80+. They said they hope to tell people more about it on November 4th.

0

0x7b23a5j3j1

3 weeks ago

SO just to clarify! The founder told Yes betters to cash there bets, and the sale will begin NOV 4 according to the founder, just re-watch and listen to the space

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

LMAO mountain man sold all his yes.

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Holy shit they just pumped and dumped on Poly holders. BUY YES THERE'S GOING TO BE A TOKEN. (sell sell sell) Token will be after the election. ;)

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Pump and dump. He wanted people to buy yes before telling them that it won't launch before the election.

0

RememberAmalek

3 weeks ago

he specifically addressed us bettors??? what the fuck???????

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Basically give us your money but you can't do anything once you give us your money.

0

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Lmao a non transferable governance token to help make decisions about WLF.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Lmao a non transferable governance token to help make decisions about WLF.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Before we start closing out. lmao

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Is Donald Trump launching a token the same as Trumps children launching a token - no. Will PM still resolve it to yes. Probably.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Ya PM will scam no voters if the Trump kids launch something even though it's no for Trump himslef. But facts are fact.

0

Justifax

3 weeks ago

Yeah, so you're either scamming or losing your money if you try to argue the 'involve' thing. Your only chance is that the token doesn't get launched until the date.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Donald Trump launching a token is not his sons launching a token.

5

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Donald Trump isn't launching a token regardless of what his children do.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

The rules don't state Donald Trumps children launching a token?

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

this is a weak arguement Tories4Harris

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

How do yes voters explain Donald Trump having nothing to do with the platform?

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

Yes Voters: Trump launched a token because his son launched a token. clowns.

3

Will Nikki Haley endorse Kamala Harris by tomorrow?

Tories4Harris

3 weeks ago

the hell is this market?

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

The Trump psyop is unreal like 20 minutes until this market closes yes for kamala.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

cope harder

1

Wapoc

0 months ago

If top holders of Kamala were smart they would sell of their position now, switch to Trump, then dump their Kamala Yes / Trump No on the main market

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

I had an activity window up for both markets so I could watch whales so I could poly whales plotting and trade on it.

0

tomic

0 months ago

where do you get that info from, from the activities or is there a better way to track trades?

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Kamala is up for at least an hour maybe closer to an hour and ten minutes.

2

tomic

0 months ago

did anyone keep tabs?

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Also worth noting 50pence became a top kamala holder in the past hour and a half which I initially expected they would flip as this market aged and move it into putting Trump on top through trades on this market. But that would be a bad idea if anon whale is just undoing all their plotting.

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

I should note that justkam move only lasted about 3 minutes before the anon whale undid it.

0

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Would like to know what @50pence and @justkam are plotting. Just Kam sold yes kamala on the election market in a move that put trump above kamala and 50 pence is trading the fuck out of this market.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Would like to know what @50pence and @justkam are plotting. Just Kam sold yes kamala on the election market in a move that put trump above kamala and 50 pence is trading the fuck out of this market.

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Anon #2 holder. I don't think they'll switch though since the have Kamala shares they're holding and aren't trading this market.

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Unless this whale decides to switch sides. It looks like Kamala has won. They've spent $2M in the past hour keeping Kamala above Trump.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Holy shit check out the #3 top holder Anon. They're single handedly keeping Kamala on top.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

pence bought back 500 kamala shares. PSyop or not.

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Bruhs his is all about what the whales decide to do in their private discord. Main price is .2 away with Kamala on top for about 10 minutes more than Trump.

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

I'm pretty sure 50 pence is going to pump trump soon. He bought kamala shares her then pumped her in other market. Then dumped his shares. I think he was waiting for the price to get low enough to buy Trump here and then dump kamala shares there.

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Time to see if WayneWest has a back up plan. They put $180k on this market.

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Anyone want to place bets if Paragon is Waynewest?

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

hasn't started.

0

BigDoh

0 months ago

I need somebody to explain to me where we are at with the leads and time left and all that

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Someone tried to claim they were going to dump during the time frame so trump wins.

0

Justifax

0 months ago

wdym dumping, they are buying

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

They could do limit positions but they're boosting kamala way above Trump. So if they limit to make Trump catch up they'll still lose significant money.

1

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Paragon dumping doesn't make sense. They'd lose more money market selling their positions than any top holder for Trump would currently make. I guess we'll see what happens in two hours.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Paragon dumping doesn't make sense. They'd lose more money market selling their positions than any top holder for Trump would currently make. I guess we'll see what happens in two hours.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Paragon just bought 795k yes kamala and 637k no trump

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

The four hour window is going to be crazy. You can see wayne setting up buy walls for kamala and sells walls for Trump on his alt.

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

My only hope is that when the Poly Whales manipulate the presidential market in three house to decide this market and they don't commit day time robbery against @Waynewest69

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

I was replying to a now deleted comment that said Domer was a dumb lib tard.

0

luckman777

0 months ago

Hmmmm. I wonder which direction crypto bros tend to lean politically, and which side is more likely to win a manipulation battle.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Bruh your name you know Kamala is going to lose?

0

MAGA2028

0 months ago

so the whales hold donald at 51 49 until 1am tonight? got it

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Kamala being .5 cents from Trump screams that this will get manipulated by whales.

0

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Domer isn't dumb they'll bet based on how they think they can make the most money.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Domer isn't dumb they'll bet based on how they think they can make the most money.

0

luckman777

0 months ago

Hmmmm. I wonder which direction crypto bros tend to lean politically, and which side is more likely to win a manipulation battle.

Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala Harris?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

Travis Kelce is set to follow Taylor Swift in endorsing Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States, according to a source who spoke to DailyMail.com. After Swift confirmed on Tuesday night that she is voting for Harris over Donald Trump in this year's Presidential election, Kelce is poised to announce that he will be doing the same come November.

0

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nfl/article-13839449/travis-kelce-election-taylor-swift-kamala-harris-donald-trump.html

Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala Harris?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nfl/article-13839449/travis-kelce-election-taylor-swift-kamala-harris-donald-trump.html

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

0 months ago

"I read that she put out"

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

This market is dumb it should be yes. "Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?" this market clearly refers to the oblast in the title. "Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?" - Why shouldn't we be able to refer to the oblast on this title? The rules don't state if it has to be the city or the oblast.

5

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Ok some people earlier stated moscow oblast shouldn't count since it's not "moscow city". The rules don't specifically state if the oblast count or if it has to be the city. Ya might be heading to UMA.

1

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Feels like this mkt might be on it's way to the tender care of UMA and, hey, who doesn't love that transparent, incorruptible and eminently fair organization?

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Watch this to see the moment the drone hit the apartment building in moscow. https://x.com/ajit4g/status/1833335785010991155. up 2/3rd on the screen coming from left to right.

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

https://x.com/Jay_Beecher/status/1833333083254182240

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

VIDEO OUT SHOWING INTACT DRONE HITTING APARTMENT!

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Second video showing something hitting an apartment https://x.com/thenewsindex/status/1833330349453050351

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

not sure if intentional or a secondary explosion.

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Video of apartment building being hit. https://x.com/kvistp/status/1833326277161332991

3

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Seems like fake news but X claims it was an "Iranian Mercenary Base" that was struck - https://x.com/GarbuzYe/status/1833319041387184585

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

video: https://x.com/conflict_live/status/1833318341919850632

3

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Drone crashed into a skyrise building. https://x.com/alternative_war/status/1833317094475043114

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Fire or ground near aircraft looks more like it was shot down than hitting a target. Will have to see if we get any confirmation of targets being hit tonight.

0

Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

8 point lead. It's over.

1

Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

For those that don't know chess. This match is over. Magnus is up 7 with 30 minutes of bullet left. Ali doesn't have enough time for a comeback unless the existing world champion forgets how to play Chess. If you're hold Alireza you're going to lose money.

0

Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Sure you don't have shares in a different wallet. Manipulating markes to trade is your whole shtick.

1

Car

1 month ago

COMEBACK!

Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

lmao. Look at this guy trying to get people to buy Ali so he can sell .1 shares for a 50x. Game is over. Ali can't come back from being 6 down.

1

Car

1 month ago

COMEBACK!

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Ohh right it's because some people are artificially inflating Trumps value on Poly

0

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-gain-more-in-the-polls-after-the-debate?tid=1725821486055

0

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-debate-according-to-polls?tid=1725821463435

0

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Kamala is currently ahead in the polls. Polymarket expects her to win the debate and gain more in the polls after the debate. But somehow this is 25%. Make it make sense.

2

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Congrats to yes buyers.

0

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

@0x7e788d Thanks for your thorough response. So question is if he will file a delay to give Trump more time to file an appeal of the evidence used in the case since some of the evidence occurred when he was president. Still feel that's unlikely since appeals generally happen after sentencing. But that adds a slight wrench into this market. Maybe 10/90 if the delay today is denied and 25/75 going into that decision. What are your opinions on odds for the market?

0

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

They already delayed it for that reason in July so I'm skeptical they'd do another delay for the same reason. But again it's possible.

0

wyn

1 month ago

I mean, its likely the judge is a democrat and the like, so it is understandable that theres a good chance they dont delay the sentencing. However, trumps legal team is arguing that they havent had sufficient time to present their case. So perhaps an extension will occur?? Have to remember that this is Donald Trump...

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I think Merchens stance of treating Trump like "any other defendant" will mean he doesn't go for this claim. But I'll give it to you that it's possible.

0

wyn

1 month ago

Fair point, but how would it look to sentence a former president who is running for president

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Anyone betting no should know that the site updates throughout the day. It updated 3 times yesterday. So numbers will be based off final number. It could still be positive albeit unlikely.

1

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

In total Trump is making two argument. I think they both have less than a 5% chance of delaying. The odds of a delay aren't 0 but I'd put it between 5-10%.

0

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

@mr.monopoly But wait there's more Trump is also trying to argue that sentencing should be delayed until after the election because - it election interference. Given that Merchen oversaw the court that convicted Trump and wants to treat Trump like any other "criminal defendant" I also don't think Merchan likes the idea of delaying a sentencing and then having Trump end up president and having to sentence a sitting president.

0

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

@mr.monopoly there are a few things to look at regarding a delay. The first is the presidential immunity for official acts claim. A federal judge already looked at this argument that Trump tried to appeal to and turned it down stating: “hush-money payments were private, unofficial acts, outside the bounds of executive authority.” Given that context and the existing precedent I think we can assume Merchan will rule the same: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/nyregion/trump-hush-money-sentencing.html - but wait there's more.

0

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Doesn't matter Poly will probably not consider it.

0

JohannesWalterReich

1 month ago

The EVENT has not been delayed until after September 4, only the AIRING of part 2 will take place a day later

What will Trump say during Hannity town hall?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Who wants to place bets if Poly will screw over betters. Town hall was today but is being aired in two parts. Obviously the market should include the second part tomorrow. But who knows.

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

endorsing a project that your children are launching is not launching a project. Yes buyers better hope poly clarifies that it should count or NFTs count for yes.

2

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

The market is betting that World Liberty Financial is Donald Trump involved and that may include a token. However the World Liberty Financial project is being launched by Trumps 3 sons and has only been "endorsed" by Donald Trump. If we take the rules literally this wouldn't count. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of a new token by November 4, 2024".

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

The market is betting that World Liberty Financial is Donald Trump involved and that may include a token. However the World Liberty Financial project is being launched by Trumps 3 sons and has only been "endorsed" by Donald Trump. If we take the rules literally this wouldn't count. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of a new token by November 4, 2024".

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I bought yes for $13 sold it for $12. Then bought no for $60 and sold it for $90 unlike you I made money... You're the clown down 1k. I'm going to enjoy watching this market close at 0 and watching you lose 5k. Especially when you could have sold earlier tonight and pocketed over $4k. Such an idiot.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

Not to mention YOU bought "YES" at the absolute peak hahaha. Then panicked and sold at a loss. What a Loser.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Mountainman got lucky and bought at $.53 yes during the initial hype on the announcement. It then pumped to $.70 and he found out the news was from a hack and that it was a scam. He then held and when it dropped he bought more. How can someone possibly be this dumb?

5

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I'm talking about you, obviously you couldn't tell you bought a scam at $.52 and were so dumb that you didn't sell at $.70 after you found out it was a scam.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

You are replying to yourself. I think you forgot to change accounts haha. I bought before the accounts got hacked. Nothing has changed whatsoever. It would of been nice to be able to compound though.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Dude bought the tokens at $.52 and even held at $.70 after he found out it was a scam announcement. That speaks for itself.

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Dude bought the tokens at $.52 and even held at $.70 after he found out it was a scam announcement. That speaks for itself.

1

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Mountainman is dumb. Trump family was hacked and promoted a scam token on a scam website. Mountainman is still saying. Pumping the scam announcement. There hasn't been any announcement of a token from the Trump family.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Mountainman is dumb. Trump family was hacked and promoted a scam token on a scam website. Mountainman is still saying. Pumping the scam announcement. There hasn't been any announcement of a token from the Trump family.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Legit in the sense that the Trump family is working on something.

1

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Yes World Liberty FInancial is a legit defi project. But they don't have a token and the website that was linked was a scam website. Don't be dumb.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Yes World Liberty FInancial is a legit defi project. But they don't have a token and the website that was linked was a scam website. Don't be dumb.

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

That website is a scam website. That token is a scam. Yes they have a crypto defi project but it's not clear when it will launch and if it will have a token.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

Hahaha. It is their project, and you know this. Stop trying to dupe people.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I warned @mountainman that it could be a scam. Since the X posts were incredibly sus and he shaded me saying it was totally real. Something about fools and their money being easily seperated.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Scam it's a scam: https://x.com/EricTrump

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

There is a small possibility the X account was hacked. Since no official announcment from any of their official socials

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

It is so over Ladies and Gentlemen... Even though NFTs count, but also the new token is already trading LIVE!!! Do we get to cash out at $2 because he launched not one but 2 tokens???? hahahaha. https://dexscreener.com/solana/4jxty3xz3pexskdvbbsu5aiu5snjwjbkgpta1buam4hr

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

You need to realize Polymarket isn't a prediction site. Degen gamblers making trump above 50% on Polymarket means nothing to anyone outside of this site.

3

wyn

1 month ago

I am fully aware and acknowledging that if Kamala receives a favourable poll this market will be on the brink of resulting to kamala, however, all trump needs is one great poll and this market will swing back in trumps favour. hence, leverage ! also taking into consideration that trump has become the favourite by a significant amount within the last 3-5 days, in which the polls are currently outdated and behind/lagging current trends !!

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyvp1089q9jo - BBC Verify has examined and verified videos posted on social media which show explosions at all three locations. In the footage, fires appear to have subsequently broken out at Konakovo Power Station and the Moscow refinery.

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

What is known: Ukraine launched an attack on Moscow and hit their targets before this market closed. A Moscow oil refinery was struck. Videos show a drone hitting this target. BBC News verified these videos as legitimate. Anyone telling you to buy No is trying to scam you into buying a decided market where they can sell their no shares for a quick profit.

1

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Is this what you tell yourself for losing money on every bet you've ever made on this platform?

0

MarinaAF

1 month ago

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. Do not underestimate the human mind's ability to rationalize even the most futile scenarios.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

@ukrainianGCR -$111 profit average no buyer.

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

-$111 profit average no buyer.

0

MarinaAF

1 month ago

Average yes buyer.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

"Do not capitulate" wtf is op smoking this is a prediction market where one side goes to the zero the other goes to 100. All facts indicate this is a yes. Credible reporting says moscow was hit by ukraine, video showing moscow oil refinery being hit. The time and response is before the close date by a little under 1 hour...

3

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Before you make a stupid mistake this market resolves in 33 hours. Check rules it's not until election day.

3

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

The interview is over. Get over the fact that you lost $1k lmao. Bad bets for sure.

1

Slimedart

1 month ago

The rules are clear about what day the interview airs. and that we have until the 9th for "resolve when the interview finishes airing in its entirety. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by September 9, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point." No no's should resolve until the 9th, CNN has until then to release the full interview instead of all the edited snippets.

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Bruh this is a dumb take. Extras are extras the interview is over. That's like saying the extras on a movie are part of the movie. No they're extras. The interview is over. No Abortion is free money.

2

TheOneB

1 month ago

no evidence that this interview has aired in it's entirety. they might have additional clips and cut out parts to release

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

RFk jr wanting to become president through a contingent election can not have dropped out. If he dropped out he would not be eligible in a contingent election.

1

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Edit to anyone who claims suspending campaign = dropping out. RFK jr. stated multiple times. I am suspending my campaign I am not terminating it. terminating = dropping out. Someone who is still hoping to become president can not by fact have dropped out.

2

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

How did somehow who is still hoping to become president in a contingent election someone who dropped out? The answer is that's impossible. He didn't drop out.

1

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Why this should resolve to no: RFK Jr didn't terminate his campaign. He suspended his campaign and pulled his name from ten states and encouraged people to vote for him in the other states. Why? Because he believes that if he stays on the ticket in the battleground states it will give kamala a win. By puling his name he is hoping for a 269-269 tie. If this occurs there would be a contingent election and he could become president. He can't still become president "in his own words" if he dropped out. This is a very clear and factual no. This should resolve to no. The question is will UMA resolve no. When poly resolved yes on a seperate proposal? It would be a bad look if they did but it's the right thing to do.

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Why this should resolve to no: RFK Jr didn't terminate his campaign. He suspended his campaign and pulled his name from ten states and encouraged people to vote for him in the other states. Why? Because he believes that if he stays on the ticket in the battleground states it will give kamala a win. By puling his name he is hoping for a 269-269 tie. If this occurs there would be a contingent election and he could become president. He can't still become president "in his own words" if he dropped out. This is a very clear and factual no. This should resolve to no. The question is will UMA resolve no. When poly resolved yes on a seperate proposal? It would be a bad look if they did but it's the right thing to do.

2

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Trump looks so old. Holy shit.

2

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

lmao imagine purchase No at .02 and being up 37X without even getting ending results

4

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

considering rfk jr is endorsing trump tomorrow a taylor swift endorse today will be bigger news or alternatively right after would shut down rfk short lived news cycle

3

CharlieSheenForPrez

1 month ago

It would be better for DNC if she attended a rally later. Just to keep Kamala in headlines. Also the dnc is about Kamala, don’t want Taylor to outshine her

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Source? Her plane landed nashville yesterday.

1

XiJinPing

1 month ago

Rules: "Only in-person attendance will qualify for this market." She is physically in Nashville.

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

You over invested on your gamble. If you're stressing. Just know she doesn't have to perform just be in attendance. If that helps.

0

n/a

1 month ago

FUCK YOU TAYLOR

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Could be both Taylor Swift was near. But ya I'm probably out $20.

0

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Also Taylor Swift hasn't responded to Trump using her persona to endorse him. So maybe she was waiting for a big reveal.

2

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Might as well waste $5 on this the CO Govenor saying he was a swiftie last night and then saying taylor swift lyrics looked completely stupid if not predictive.

0

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Tampon might be underrated. Talking about giving free tampons to girls in Michigan schools. Could be part of Walz highlighting his record. Everything else IMO looks about right. Abortion might be too high though.

0

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Yes but that is going to have a more moderate republican viewership. And Reproductive Rights sell better to that audience. I feel like it's too controversial as well considering the audience. But not going to waste money on no in case I'm wrong.

0

factman

1 month ago

Surprisingly he said "reproductive rights" only once in my analysis, while he said "abortion" on 4 different occasions

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

The speech will likely focus on Bidens and Kamalas accomplishments and what Biden wants to do going forward. Anything that is strictly an attack on Trump is probably a bad yes vote. But who knows the guy might speak for two minutes and walk off stage. Everything might be a bad yes vote

2

Will Hillary Clinton say during DNC speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Rip Yes voters. 0 for 9.

2

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Abortion is overvalued imo. Kamal will probably say women's right to choose, or womens health care decisions or other coded words for abortion. Not sure if she'll say Abortion straight out though.

3

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

lmao. $2,500 bet already on couch. "campaign statements about her policies suggest the Democratic nominee will focus on lowering grocery prices, addressing housing costs and more" it's not impossible that she'd say something about making couches more affordable. But holy shit this market is crazy.

4

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I don't agree. Ukraine was losing land in Ukraine before they opened up a front in Russia. Their military is smaller. They'll do more for their defenders in Ukraine by creating cross border pressure and forcing Russia to pull soldiers from their existing fronts to defend their own borders I think holding land would be great for negotiations but I'm about 80% sure that is secondary to causing Russia to pull from their existing fronts.

1

n/a

1 month ago

The purpose of the operation is to exchange territory for one’s own during negotiations.

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

ended up through $10 on end of October. Currently $.40 for no. This one feels too risky, as I think Russia will have problems creating meaningful pressure before end of August. .

1

Werty1

1 month ago

Buy the "No" lottery ticket then boy the price action doesnt matter its the resolution and if you think you have an edge on your idea, really, go for it!

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Feel a bit like yes is overvalued. I don't think Ukraine wants to hold the territory. That being said Russia has no real opposition yet and Ukraine will continue expanding and destroying Russia in a location Russia won't want to go scorched earth to repel them. Ukraine will 100% commit to saving men over holding land in Russia, they will then pop up over the border somewhere else with those same forces. Forcing Russia to hold high amounts of soldiers on their border in a defensive position. People voting yes because Ukraine could "hold" if they wanted are looking at this wrong. The question is how long will it take Russia to build up significant forces in Kursk so that Ukraine falls back to preserve lives for their next incursion. IMO that's unlikely before the end of August and more likely in the first half of September. Maybe 20% no odds on this.

1

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Stop thinking Trump will say Crypto. Trump doesn't care about crypto.

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Smart money bet on Tampons just like Tampon Tim is going to win the election.

4

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Trump thinks he can win on illegal immigration so he won't stop talking about it.

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Tesla bros love being pegged while on edge by their gfs

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Bitcoin yes boys are dumb. Both Trump and Elon hate BTC. They aren't going to talk about it. Elon literally said he hates crypto now. Trump only talked about BTC to get votes.

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Censor boys about to edge

3

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Check my comment from earlier today best odds at 5 to 1

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Tampons was such an obvious one.

3

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I didn't hear anyone say tesla but elon

0

hhhjjj

1 month ago

he said someething like "before tesla is invented"

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

I learned that next time I need to wait to buy until the middle of the speech.

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

In profit baby

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Lets go!

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Tampon going to pump if they start talking about Tim.

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Holy Shit this guy is praising dictators.

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Of all the ones Tampon seems like the best risk to reward. (currently 5 to 1)Elon is a Transphobe and Tampon Tim is likely to get trashed by Donald Trump.

1

n/a

1 month ago

yall think he says tampon?

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

IMO this is how you should look at this market. 1. Can Trump say it bragging about himself? 2. Can Trump say it attacking someone else. 3. If neither it's probably not a good bet.

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Of all the ones Tampon seems like the highest risk reward. Elon is a Transphobe and Tampon Tim is likely to get trashed by Donald Trump.

0

n/a

1 month ago

yall think he says tampon?

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Not going to happen during the interview with Elon and Trump Sr. hasn't said anything about it yet. Elon also recently started saying he "hates" crypto. Might come up if theres a question but otherwise I doubt it.

1

IWillReturn

1 month ago

Think there are rumors that Trump might launch some sort of token of his own, and Trump Jr has talked about the “crypto community” (quote) very recently

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

No way Donald and Transphobe Elon won't try and attack Walz about putting Tampons in the boys bathroom. It's their literal only attack on him atm.

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

My guy you're still not reading what I'm writing. yes many defi platforms have a token. But the token often is launched after the platform has been live for awhile. The Uniswap token launched 2 years after the platform launched. Aave token launched 3 years after the platform launched. Jupiter token launched 3 three years after the defi platform launched. I'm not even saying a coin isn't possible in my comment. I'm saying he stated he's not launching a coin he's launching a platform. Yes a defi coin could come later but it's not a guarantee to launch at the same time. This is a time gated market. You can't say he launched they launched a token in 2025 so therefore this old market that already ended should actually become a yes.

1

ionlywin

2 months ago

Reminder. Not a single defi platform doesn't have a coin.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

You didn't read my comment. Uniswap launched in 2018 the Uniswap coin launched in 2020. Like I said many of the defi platforms that come with a coin launched later partially based off use of the platform.

0

ionlywin

2 months ago

Name a single defi platform without a coin, I'll wait.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Holy shit. What? I literally provided the quote where he reads a question: "Am I dropping a coin" and responds "no" Watch at 3:55 in the video I link.

0

ionlywin

2 months ago

Remember Republicans4Kamala is lying. He never said "NO" in that interview (watch it) - He said the one that was blowing up, was not the one they were teasing. Big difference. Misinformation at it's finest. They're planning a defi platform, and all platforms have tokens/coins.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Not all Crypto platforms come with coins and in many cases if it includes a coin the coin is launched after the platform is established and does an airdrop based partially off use of said platform

0

ionlywin

2 months ago

So they're for sure launching a platform, all platforms have tokens/coins. That brings the odds to 50% minimum. Common sense please.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

He says he's not launching a coin. Straight up then says he's launching a platform. Then again says he's not launching a meme coin. If you vote yes you have to hope the coin is an extension of the platform.

1

ionlywin

2 months ago

The bet is on any type of COIN. Not meme coin lmfao

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

I bought some Yes at $.28 and sold at $.26 - they're supposedly looking at a platform not a coin. Technically a coin could be secondary but secondary in addition to the platform but that sounds like a no.

1

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

https://x.com/tier10k/status/1821696915613835637

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

https://x.com/tier10k/status/1821696915613835637

1

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Don Jr today: Am I dropping a coin: NO, what we are talking about is sort of a larger type of platform not going to be - going to be very different - not a meme coin that's not what we're going to be talking about.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Don Jr today: Am I dropping a coin: NO, what we are talking about is sort of a larger type of platform not going to be - going to be very different - not a meme coin that's not what we're going to be talking about.

2

Trump Family launches coin by Friday?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

It should probably be clarified if this includes tokens. As Coins are tokens are technically different.

0

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Not sure if lag or glitch but my yes walz purchase isn't showing in my profile or this page ten minutes later but does show in my purchase history.

3

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Staffer sexual assault coverup

1

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Money on no Josh and Yes Mike. Yes Josh feels like throwing away money but stranger things have happened. Things are just going wrong for Josh in candidate discovery. They seem like they could become a huge liability with lots of baggage for Maga to lash out at but stranger things have happened.

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

being turned on by other dems - Fetterman and Nancy Pelosi

1

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Money on no Josh and Yes Mike. Yes Josh feels like throwing away money but stranger things have happened. Things are just going wrong for Josh in candidate discovery. They seem like they could become a huge liability with lots of baggage for Maga to lash out at but stranger things have happened.

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Money on no Josh and Yes Mike. Yes Josh feels like throwing away money but stranger things have happened. Things are just going wrong for Josh in candidate discovery. They seem like they could become a huge liability with lots of baggage for Maga to lash out at but stranger things have happened.

3

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Took your advice in my comment - Ended up setting up a sell for half of my Mark Kelly purchases at 100% to try and get money back if he does get a bump from the news.

0

ArtVandalay

2 months ago

Per NYTIMES moments ago: "Here’s a potential veepstakes tea leaf: Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky are scheduled to host fund-raisers for the Harris campaign on Monday night, the evening before the deadline that the Harris campaign has suggested it has set to announce its vice-presidential pick. Walz will headline a fund-raiser in Minneapolis, and Beshear will be featured at one in Chicago, according to the invites."

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

The only downside is reportedly a governor was being considering due to campaign finance restrictions which is why Josh was the favorite. If Josh wasn't the favorite or the article is wrong I'm just throwing away $40.

0

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is likely no longer the favorite to be Harris' VP nominee after his involvement in a sexual harassment coverup has come to a head. - https://www.rawstory.com/news/josh-shapiro-2668862392/ - Sold some of my Kamala shares to see if I can get easy gains on Mark Kelly.

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

sorry I reposted first time didn't have full article title.

0

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is likely no longer the favorite to be Harris' VP nominee after his involvement in a sexual harassment coverup has come to a head. - https://www.rawstory.com/news/josh-shapiro-2668862392/ - Sold some of my Kamala shares to see if I can get easy gains on Mark Kelly.

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Kamala reportedly to have met privately with Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly. If Josh goes under it seems like Mark is the second favorite: https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/1ehnzgj/oh_boy_whos_it_gonna_be/

0

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is likely no longer the favorite to be Harris' VP nominee after his involvement in a sexual harassment coverup has come to a head. - https://www.rawstory.com/news/josh-shapiro-2668862392/ - Sold some of my Kamala shares to see if I can get easy gains on Mark Kelly.

Democratic VP nominee?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is likely no longer the favorite to be Harris' VP nominee after his involvement in a sexual harassment coverup has come to a head. - https://www.rawstory.com/news/josh-shapiro-2668862392/ - Sold some of my Kamala shares to see if I can get easy gains on Mark Kelly.

4

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

This was such a stupid proposal. A logical no but an abstract yes. So resolver goes with the abstract answer. Whatever only lost $7. Sorry to some of the other people who lost big funds.

3

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech/will-trump-say-memecoin-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech?tid=1722123245178 - look at settled - Reserve settled at no - so how did he announce a strategic bitcoin reserve without saying reserve.

1

Kamala.Harris

2 months ago

what is the other poll

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

The fact that he probably meant to announce it doesn't mean anything. Either way I spent $8 with the possibility to win $140 in what should be a no. But considering News Organizations are reporting otherwise this might default to yes and I'm fine with losing $8.

0

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

So technically speaking the fact that it has already been confirmed through a different polymarket poll that DJT didn't say Reserve. Means this should be by default. (NO) - Considering Bitcoin magazine and others had news stories ready to go that said Donald Trump would announce it, makes me think the dude made a mistake on stage and flopped the announcement. That also means no.

Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

So technically speaking the fact that it has already been confirmed through a different polymarket poll that DJT didn't say Reserve. Means this should be by default. (NO) - Considering Bitcoin magazine and others had news stories ready to go that said Donald Trump would announce it, makes me think the dude made a mistake on stage and flopped the announcement. That also means no.

9

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Liked by Munners, MichaelFow... and 7 others

Biden nominated before Democratic convention?

Tories4Harris

2 months ago

Who is Biden being nominated before dem convention more likely than Biden not dropping out. Since this is one level beyond that. Seems odd.

0