rjpoly

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

rjpoly

8 months ago

I heard Putin gave up peace negotiations for Lent

3

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

rjpoly

8 months ago

Trump's a little bitch who can't even pull the trigger on tariffs and people think he's gonna end a war lol

13

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

rjpoly

8 months ago

"He should stay in power? While leading hundreds to their slaughter in trenches with no victory in sight?" Why don't you ask the same question about Putin lol

2

Big.Balls

8 months ago

Zelensky is in serious danger in Ukraine, reportedly, with the potential for someone in Ukraine to kill him, even if it’s from his own security. Seriously.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

rjpoly

8 months ago

I believe in Santa Claus

11

Who will Trump fire in first 100 days?

rjpoly

9 months ago

The market wasn't settled, it has been completely removed. I'm also missing the funds I had invested in it. Anyone from Polymarket gonna comment on this and start refunding us...

2

startrader644

9 months ago

Btw Polymarket removed the Robert Lightizer market. looks like the market has been settled

Who will Trump fire in first 100 days?

rjpoly

9 months ago

If Lighthizer is a Yes than so is Stefanik btw

1

0x5e73afb20C2B27CAccdAAD9e49B97fd336576697-1730196100657

9 months ago

Robert Lighthizer isn’t USTR and hasn’t been nominated for the post…

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

rjpoly

9 months ago

Kursk is a big sticking point. Russians won't do a ceasefire while Ukraine is still in Kursk. They have not reason to let Ukraine hold it and use as a bargaining chip in negotiations if they think they can take it back

2

randomWalkingShrimp

9 months ago

It's technically impossible to settle such a full-scale conflict within 2 months.

Did Kamala buy ads on Majority Report?

rjpoly

9 months ago

A market for the terminally online

1

Oxymirin

9 months ago

What is this

Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?

rjpoly

9 months ago

Right you are, Ken

0

axitaxi

9 months ago

this is my recession hedge lol

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

rjpoly

9 months ago

He's +221K and you're -136. I'm taking a side bet on the side bet that you're wrong

2

just.some.guy

9 months ago

Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?

Gavin Newsom out as Governor before April?

rjpoly

9 months ago

Mr French Laundry ain't going anywhere

0

Big.Balls

10 months ago

He’s responsible for not having the water available for LA

Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?

rjpoly

10 months ago

Might've been a Sunday/Monday midnight resignation. Should be fun

0

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

rjpoly

10 months ago

Pretty much but the rules need to be clarified that both US and Denmark must make an announcement. Third paragraph says US and Denmark but first paragraph only says US. Don't understand how they are still so shit at writing unambiguous rules.

1

BussyBlaster

10 months ago

13% APY return on this

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

rjpoly

10 months ago

This is the only way it can resolve yes. The bitcoins get placed in "a" reserve but they won't be in "the" reserve

0

Justifax

10 months ago

this is going to resolve yes based on some half assed reserve2

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

rjpoly

10 months ago

EO can instruct the Justice Department to transfer seized bitcoins to Treasury Department reserve, but it doesn't actually move them. Moving them is an IT project. You are betting on whether the US Federal government will implement a new IT project in 100 days.

1

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

rjpoly

10 months ago

This would be a good place to start for resolving this market https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position

2

Justifax

10 months ago

but here's the thing, we could fix this. we could make it actually reasonable if people stopped fucking around

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

rjpoly

11 months ago

Are you on discord? DM me there to talk strategy on this market

0

Deadheadbucky

11 months ago

Do you all realize how the government works? Let’s assume this is passed via executive order within the first 100 days-an uncertain prospect to begin with as this likely isn’t a top White House priority-how long do you think it would take the Treasury (or whichever agency is responsible) to implement such a plan? There’s no established protocol or institutional knowledge within the USG for executing something like this. How would the government purchase it? With what funds? Where/how would it be stored? Who would oversee and manage it? The amount of lobbying (both for and against), ‘feasibility studies’, interagency bickering, preparation, etc., will be absurd. (Maybe it could be outsourced, but then government contracting comes into play, which is another nightmare.) There is only one constant about the USG-it’s slow. Not to mention, the political optics of the government buying bitcoin during a generational cost of living crisis wouldn’t look great. (Yes, it may help with that in the long run. But tell that to the people who can’t afford rent today.) It’s a good idea, and it will likely happen eventually, but no way the government moves fast enough to resolve this market in time, 100 days is far too fast.

What will Powell say during December Press Conference?

rjpoly

1 year ago

What's his inflation count in the past?

1

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

rjpoly

1 year ago

lol

5

dudeforkamala

1 year ago

he said he'd free Ross Ulbricht on day 1. Maybe it won't be day 1, but it will be in first 100 days. Libertarians are 100% going to hold him to this

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

rjpoly

1 year ago

If you guess right then every share you own will pay out $1 (USDC). If you guess wrong all your shares are worth 0. Make sure you read the rules so you understand what conditions have to be met for it to resolve Yes or No.

5

LionelT.

1 year ago

I just joined here. Pls can anyone explain how it works? What if it is NO and I voted it .. how would the payout work .. what if it is yes instead? Thanks everyone

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

rjpoly

1 year ago

No on everything is +EV

2

Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Nah, when I made that comment over a month ago there was a 3 cent difference between the two markets, but now they are basically the same

1

Imaginal

1 year ago

Is this a trick question?

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi

rjpoly

1 year ago

83? This is a farce

2

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi

rjpoly

1 year ago

Thank you sir

0

Sit

1 year ago

Join the discord, it's being streamed

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi

rjpoly

1 year ago

Can somebody post when they start eating? No Netflix so I'm just betting blind here

1

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

rjpoly

1 year ago

What's the rationale for McDonald's?

0

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Tampon Tim is not saying tampon, get real people

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

rjpoly

1 year ago

There's one more word coming

3

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Selling tampon at 80 might be my Polymarket high point

3

Trump wins every swing state?

rjpoly

1 year ago

You have that backwards. The results between swings states are highly correlated which means the odds here should only be a little worse than the hardest swing state for Trump to win (currently Michigan). If he wins that state it is very likely he wins the rest.

7

Darktree

1 year ago

No, its still 50% , because the results from one state do not influence another state.

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Why would it happen at all

0

homosexual

1 year ago

Why would it happen after?

Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?

rjpoly

1 year ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1723016897210

0

rjpoly

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Seems like this is nearly identical to the "which party wins" market. Only difference I see is that this market would resolve differently if either a 3rd party wins or Joe Biden wins, but those are both exceedingly small probabilities. Not worth the current 3 cents price difference.

Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Am I missing something? Seems like this is nearly identical to the "which party wins" market. Only difference I see is that this market would resolve differently if either a 3rd party wins or Joe Biden wins, but those are both exceedingly small probabilities. Not worth the current 3 cents price difference.

1

Ethereum all time high wen?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Interesting, I saw on another ETH price market there is a note in the rules that if binance has a large "data discrepancy" compared to other exchanges they will also use price on other exchanges to resolve the market. Frankly, they should add this language to all the crypto price markets. https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-hit-15k-in-2024?tid=1723013773446

1

rjpoly

1 year ago

Feel like these crypto markets should rely on price data from 2 exchanges to be confirmed. What if binance glitches out and briefly shows an ATH when there isn't one

Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Not an expert but I've been doing some ready on the Yen-USD carry trade which seems to be the current explanation for the massive stock sell-off in Japan. Basically it relies on the difference in government debt interest rates between US and Japan and a relatively stable exchange rate in order to be profitable. But both of those factors have started to shift: The yen has been rapidly appreciating against the dollar and the Bank of Japan just this year has started raising rates for the first time in many years. Now all this turmoil would make you think the Fed will act quickly with a rate cut to support the economy, but the kicker is that in this case a rate cut in the US would further contribute to the collapse of the carry trade. Seems like a real quagmire here and I have no idea how to trade it. Used to have a much bigger position in this market but reduced it heavily. Anyway there is bound to be a lot of volatility in the near term, stay safe and maybe don't look at your stock portfolio for awhile.

5

Democratic Nominee 2024

rjpoly

1 year ago

People cashing out to buy the crypto dip

6

Ethereum all time high wen?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Feel like these crypto markets should rely on price data from 2 exchanges to be confirmed. What if binance glitches out and briefly shows an ATH when there isn't one

2

What will Trump say during his Bitcoin Conference speech?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Did everyone just forget how good Barron is at cyber?

0

Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics

rjpoly

1 year ago

Just getting a share so I can remember to come back and laugh at whatever this devolves into

8

Who will endorse Kamala?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Enough to scare me out of my shares. Thank you, sir

0

n/a

1 year ago

https://x.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1815207085983817865

Who will endorse Kamala?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Any argument that Obama shouldn't be priced the same as Kamala to be the nominee? Obama has a history of not making his position known on stuff like this until a consensus emerges.

0

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

rjpoly

1 year ago

I totally agree there was a case for Yes until the clarification btw, sorry for your shares mate

1

DumbMoney1

1 year ago

Maybe people who find it hard to believe poly would dictate such an illogical result. But in reality no one should be betting now given they have tipped the scales.

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Who is still paying 2 cents after Polymarket cleared the books and said it is No??

0

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Gotta be careful with this part of the rules: Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution."

1

JanusofDoors

1 year ago

Just checking the temperature: is it common for Polymarket to fall on the side of absurd resolutions, like "Obama called for Biden to resign when he endorsed Kamala" after he had already dropped out?

Biden announcement on future today?

rjpoly

1 year ago

After re-reading the rules I suppose there was a case for Yes. The rules are terribly written though because I don't think anyone would think Biden saying he is staying in the race should be called a "major" announcement.

0

Donkov

1 year ago

"if President Joe Biden makes any major announcement regarding his future, such as his decision to resign the presidency or whether to run or not run for re-election" Statement whether he will stay in the race is literally in the rule for the market to resolve to yes.

Biden announcement on future today?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Saying he is staying in the race is not a major announcement. He's been saying it for weeks.

0

snarf43

1 year ago

I think the only question now is whether it's a "major announcement" or not. If not then they really should be more specific with what they mean.

Will Trump announce VP pick before RNC?

rjpoly

1 year ago

bruh

0

Euro 2024: Spain vs. Georgia

rjpoly

1 year ago

There's a separate market for who advances (after any extra time or penalties) https://polymarket.com/event/spain-vs-georgia-who-will-advance?tid=1719778476273

0

Puten

1 year ago

who knows, why? - "Note: This match refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts will not be considered."

Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Most convincing I've seen so far. This one is really tough. I can't really see any blinking while he is looking down and first motion of his eyelids after looking down seems to be up. Still his head is too far down to tell for sure if his eyes are closed

0

n/a

1 year ago

1:25:14 https://youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE

Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Best one I've seen so far, but it's not definitive. I don't see any blinking while he is looking down here but his head is too far down to truly tell

0

n/a

1 year ago

57:53 https://youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE

Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?

rjpoly

1 year ago

24:33 possibly

1

n/a

1 year ago

https://youtube.com/watch?v=pf0yVMy_bzc 8:55

Republican VP nominee?

rjpoly

1 year ago

Choking like a dog

1

🤺JustPunched

1 year ago

After spending hours of his life across many weeks pumping, Smokey Joe retreating on Huckabee like a dirty dumpster dog.