#568
Rank
36
Comments
22
Likes Received
35
Likes Given
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
rjpoly
1 week ago
He's +221K and you're -136. I'm taking a side bet on the side bet that you're wrong
2
just.some.guy
1 week ago
Anybody know when the committee's voting on Tulsi?
What will Powell say during December Press Conference?
rjpoly
3 months ago
What's his inflation count in the past?
1
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
rjpoly
3 months ago
lol
5
dudeforkamala
3 months ago
he said he'd free Ross Ulbricht on day 1. Maybe it won't be day 1, but it will be in first 100 days. Libertarians are 100% going to hold him to this
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
rjpoly
3 months ago
If you guess right then every share you own will pay out $1 (USDC). If you guess wrong all your shares are worth 0. Make sure you read the rules so you understand what conditions have to be met for it to resolve Yes or No.
5
LionelT.
3 months ago
I just joined here. Pls can anyone explain how it works? What if it is NO and I voted it .. how would the payout work .. what if it is yes instead? Thanks everyone
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
rjpoly
3 months ago
No on everything is +EV
2
Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?
rjpoly
5 months ago
Nah, when I made that comment over a month ago there was a 3 cent difference between the two markets, but now they are basically the same
1
Imaginal
5 months ago
Is this a trick question?
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi
rjpoly
5 months ago
83? This is a farce
2
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi
rjpoly
5 months ago
Thank you sir
0
Sit
5 months ago
Join the discord, it's being streamed
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi
rjpoly
5 months ago
Can somebody post when they start eating? No Netflix so I'm just betting blind here
1
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
rjpoly
5 months ago
What's the rationale for McDonald's?
0
What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?
rjpoly
5 months ago
Tampon Tim is not saying tampon, get real people
1
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
rjpoly
6 months ago
There's one more word coming
3
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Selling tampon at 80 might be my Polymarket high point
3
Trump wins every swing state?
rjpoly
6 months ago
You have that backwards. The results between swings states are highly correlated which means the odds here should only be a little worse than the hardest swing state for Trump to win (currently Michigan). If he wins that state it is very likely he wins the rest.
7
Darktree
6 months ago
No, its still 50% , because the results from one state do not influence another state.
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Why would it happen at all
0
homosexual
6 months ago
Why would it happen after?
Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?
rjpoly
6 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1723016897210
0
rjpoly
6 months ago
Am I missing something? Seems like this is nearly identical to the "which party wins" market. Only difference I see is that this market would resolve differently if either a 3rd party wins or Joe Biden wins, but those are both exceedingly small probabilities. Not worth the current 3 cents price difference.
Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Am I missing something? Seems like this is nearly identical to the "which party wins" market. Only difference I see is that this market would resolve differently if either a 3rd party wins or Joe Biden wins, but those are both exceedingly small probabilities. Not worth the current 3 cents price difference.
1
Ethereum all time high wen?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Interesting, I saw on another ETH price market there is a note in the rules that if binance has a large "data discrepancy" compared to other exchanges they will also use price on other exchanges to resolve the market. Frankly, they should add this language to all the crypto price markets. https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-hit-15k-in-2024?tid=1723013773446
1
rjpoly
6 months ago
Feel like these crypto markets should rely on price data from 2 exchanges to be confirmed. What if binance glitches out and briefly shows an ATH when there isn't one
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Not an expert but I've been doing some ready on the Yen-USD carry trade which seems to be the current explanation for the massive stock sell-off in Japan. Basically it relies on the difference in government debt interest rates between US and Japan and a relatively stable exchange rate in order to be profitable. But both of those factors have started to shift: The yen has been rapidly appreciating against the dollar and the Bank of Japan just this year has started raising rates for the first time in many years. Now all this turmoil would make you think the Fed will act quickly with a rate cut to support the economy, but the kicker is that in this case a rate cut in the US would further contribute to the collapse of the carry trade. Seems like a real quagmire here and I have no idea how to trade it. Used to have a much bigger position in this market but reduced it heavily. Anyway there is bound to be a lot of volatility in the near term, stay safe and maybe don't look at your stock portfolio for awhile.
5
Democratic Nominee 2024
rjpoly
6 months ago
People cashing out to buy the crypto dip
6
Ethereum all time high wen?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Feel like these crypto markets should rely on price data from 2 exchanges to be confirmed. What if binance glitches out and briefly shows an ATH when there isn't one
2
What will Trump say during his Bitcoin Conference speech?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Did everyone just forget how good Barron is at cyber?
0
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics
rjpoly
6 months ago
Just getting a share so I can remember to come back and laugh at whatever this devolves into
8
Who will endorse Kamala?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Enough to scare me out of my shares. Thank you, sir
0
n/a
6 months ago
https://x.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1815207085983817865
Who will endorse Kamala?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Any argument that Obama shouldn't be priced the same as Kamala to be the nominee? Obama has a history of not making his position known on stuff like this until a consensus emerges.
0
Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?
rjpoly
6 months ago
I totally agree there was a case for Yes until the clarification btw, sorry for your shares mate
1
DumbMoney1
6 months ago
Maybe people who find it hard to believe poly would dictate such an illogical result. But in reality no one should be betting now given they have tipped the scales.
Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Who is still paying 2 cents after Polymarket cleared the books and said it is No??
0
Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Gotta be careful with this part of the rules: Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution."
1
JanusofDoors
6 months ago
Just checking the temperature: is it common for Polymarket to fall on the side of absurd resolutions, like "Obama called for Biden to resign when he endorsed Kamala" after he had already dropped out?
Biden announcement on future today?
rjpoly
6 months ago
After re-reading the rules I suppose there was a case for Yes. The rules are terribly written though because I don't think anyone would think Biden saying he is staying in the race should be called a "major" announcement.
0
Donkov
6 months ago
"if President Joe Biden makes any major announcement regarding his future, such as his decision to resign the presidency or whether to run or not run for re-election" Statement whether he will stay in the race is literally in the rule for the market to resolve to yes.
Biden announcement on future today?
rjpoly
6 months ago
Saying he is staying in the race is not a major announcement. He's been saying it for weeks.
0
snarf43
6 months ago
I think the only question now is whether it's a "major announcement" or not. If not then they really should be more specific with what they mean.
Will Trump announce VP pick before RNC?
rjpoly
7 months ago
bruh
0
Euro 2024: Spain vs. Georgia
rjpoly
7 months ago
There's a separate market for who advances (after any extra time or penalties) https://polymarket.com/event/spain-vs-georgia-who-will-advance?tid=1719778476273
0
Puten
7 months ago
who knows, why? - "Note: This match refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts will not be considered."
Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?
rjpoly
7 months ago
Most convincing I've seen so far. This one is really tough. I can't really see any blinking while he is looking down and first motion of his eyelids after looking down seems to be up. Still his head is too far down to tell for sure if his eyes are closed
0
n/a
7 months ago
1:25:14 https://youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE
Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?
rjpoly
7 months ago
Best one I've seen so far, but it's not definitive. I don't see any blinking while he is looking down here but his head is too far down to truly tell
0
n/a
7 months ago
57:53 https://youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE
Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate?
rjpoly
7 months ago
24:33 possibly
1
n/a
7 months ago
https://youtube.com/watch?v=pf0yVMy_bzc 8:55
Republican VP nominee?
rjpoly
7 months ago
Choking like a dog
1
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
After spending hours of his life across many weeks pumping, Smokey Joe retreating on Huckabee like a dirty dumpster dog.