Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31?

Amok

5 months ago

They said they would

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Amok

6 months ago

Interesting bet. Zelensky will feel the pressure to make peace. Ukraine is losing badly at the moment, the US will condition further arms shipments on negotations and the Europeans can't compete with the Russian military output. Trump wants peace. The only question is: does Putin? Why would Putin accept a rotten peace deal and Ukraine in Nato in the future if he can have Kiev? He's not far from victory. Trump would have to severely threaten him to get him to back off. Or offer him something he wants.

0

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

6 months ago

Only if you're a terrorist or pedophile

13

Myrai

6 months ago

time to leave the country if they do

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Amok

6 months ago

Here's how this goes: If Iran retaliates against Israel with True Promise 3, Israel has said it will target oil and nuclear next. Now with Trump elected, they can 100% do it with impunity. However, if Iran backs down, the chances slim down considerably. They may still do it, just because of the current power vacuum. But much less likely.

1

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Amok

6 months ago

Trump makes it more probable. He 100% has Israel's back and won't hold them down.

0

SausageRoll

6 months ago

Absolutely no way this will happen with Trump president-elect.

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Amok

6 months ago

Biden doesn't care anymore. He's gone out of his way to damage the Dems after the coup, and will continue to do so. Trump's election victory only makes this more likely. Watch this bet go up after the sentencing in 4 weeks.

2

Iran strike on Israel by Friday?

Amok

6 months ago

Agree, the time window is closing fast

0

Piffpaff

6 months ago

Attack is coming! Iran will send a message before it gets too difficult with Trump

AOC pregnant in 2024?

Amok

6 months ago

How racist of her

0

genghisbrain

6 months ago

can we get a market on if she'll abort it though

AOC pregnant in 2024?

Amok

6 months ago

Couldn't pay me enough to touch that diseased piece of shit. She probably has every STD in the book

0

MasterMindful

6 months ago

Any volunteer to impregnate her so we can buy Yes?

Elon Musk # of tweets Nov 1-8?

Amok

6 months ago

600 won't happen

2

Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?

Amok

6 months ago

We'll nuke them long before they nuke us

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

if you look at the top YES holders, all of them are new accounts who just joined bc they are evil jews who follow pro-war jewish twitter accounts lmaooo

Iran strike on Israel on Nov 5?

Amok

6 months ago

Or attack during election to stay under the radar of reporting in the west

0

Jewbru

6 months ago

Iran is going to wait to see who wins the election :)

Will Trump lose Iowa but win election?

Amok

6 months ago

According to the polls it's possible, yes

1

Elon Musk # of tweets Nov 1-8?

Amok

6 months ago

Perhaps. But it's been pretty reliable to me so far.

1

Amok

6 months ago

600 isn't happening. Friday is only half a day by the counter, and Musk tends to sleep in late. I expect election day to be less posts than usual. He won't be posting about crypto, science or spaceX or playing Diablo. You see it already this week, he's cutting down. He'll do a few get out the vote posts, share some election fraud stuff, and then the long wait happens during the count. Chances are he won't watch the election alone at home like we bums will, but he'll be with a bunch of important people. So more distraction. ChatGPT estimated the chance of Musk posting over 600 times by Friday at 3%. Bet accordingly.

Elon Musk # of tweets Nov 1-8?

Amok

6 months ago

600 isn't happening. Friday is only half a day by the counter, and Musk tends to sleep in late. I expect election day to be less posts than usual. He won't be posting about crypto, science or spaceX or playing Diablo. You see it already this week, he's cutting down. He'll do a few get out the vote posts, share some election fraud stuff, and then the long wait happens during the count. Chances are he won't watch the election alone at home like we bums will, but he'll be with a bunch of important people. So more distraction. ChatGPT estimated the chance of Musk posting over 600 times by Friday at 3%. Bet accordingly.

4

Trump post about a memecoin before election?

Amok

6 months ago

Nope.

0

MaverickBottomZ

6 months ago

https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1852692331557753309 will this count?

Iowa Margin of Victory

Amok

6 months ago

Watch what happens on election night. 2am ballot drops coming

0

Pannenkoeken

6 months ago

Ann Selzer's polls? A total joke! Iowa knows the truth, her numbers are always way off. Watch what happens on Election Day! Big win coming!

Iowa Margin of Victory

Amok

6 months ago

Selzer took into account voter fraud

0

354t5425g

6 months ago

Selzer made a fake poll to either make money off betting Trump winning iowa or because doing a real poll would make Harris look so bad that lefties would insane

Iowa Margin of Victory

Amok

6 months ago

That was before the abortion ban.

1

354t5425g

6 months ago

Active voter registration in 2020: R + 21,000. Active voter registration in 2024: R + 173,000. House of representative vote in 2020: R + 7 House of representative vote in 2022: R +12. 2018 gubernatorial election: R +3. 2022 gubernatorial election: R + 19: . Iowa is clearly trending red

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Amok

6 months ago

record early vote turnout

4

Elon Musk # of tweets Nov 1-8?

Amok

6 months ago

Technically impossible, since you can also bet against

7

Mike2025

6 months ago

Pointless betting on this. Odds are way overpriced overall.

Will Elon do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl before election?

Amok

6 months ago

Insiders buying yes...

0

Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?

Amok

6 months ago

No attack before election. They have to coordinate their groups, pick targets, weigh consequences, check with the Americans how far they can go...

0

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Amok

6 months ago

Her travel schedule doesn't even allow it anymore. This is 100% over

3

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

6 months ago

AFD spiking. It may happen

4

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Amok

6 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/auqaxDU0GA8 it's real

2

ty9er

6 months ago

if election rigging is real then this will be a yes easily

Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?

Amok

6 months ago

They have to do it before the election

0

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Amok

6 months ago

3 factors to consider: 1. There are more eligible voters overall. 2. Trump will get more votes this time than in 2020. 3. That means the Dems will have to print more ballots to steal the election. = More votes overall

11

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Amok

6 months ago

insiders buying yes

1

Trump post about a memecoin before election?

Amok

6 months ago

-170 now :D

0

GodofGamblers24

7 months ago

$WLFI it is Memecoin, you can find many Memecoins with the same name on the chain, so this is Yes

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Amok

6 months ago

Why would she? They can print as many ballots as they need to win

3

Cosmicbets

6 months ago

Ah man she's really running out of time, it's like she doesn't want to pick up any more votes

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

Amok

6 months ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/oil-slides-over-4percent-as-israels-attack-on-iran-unlikely-to-disrupt-supplies.html "spares iran oil facilities"

0

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

Amok

6 months ago

By that logic every time they strike a car, tank or any place with a diesel generator it would be an attack on "oil". Don't be ridiculous. This bet is about striking Iran's oil or gas industry

1

Jewbru

6 months ago

The IDF carried out a "kinetic strike" against fuel storage and production facilities... how is this not resolved yet?

Elon Musk # of tweets Oct 25 - Nov 1?

Amok

6 months ago

5 days to go, already at 110. 400+ looks like a safe bet

1

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

Amok

6 months ago

Israel never declared war on another state in its entire history. They're not going to start now

0

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

Amok

6 months ago

Not happening

0

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Amok

6 months ago

They haven't even assessed the damage yet. Free 8%

1

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Amok

6 months ago

Iran won't escalate now. For one there's a conference on Gaza in Dohar, and secondly Iran will likely just have its proxies do an attack. The Russians, the Chinese all want this little tit for tat between Iran and Israel to stop. Israel waited 4 weeks to respond, and did only a small symbolic attack that was aimed at deescalation. Iran is already claiming victory over this attack, so they don't really have to do anything more to save face.

3

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Amok

6 months ago

Certainly the two markets are tied. Last time Iran didn't respond at all to Israel's retaliatory strike. This time, if Israel doesn't hit nuclear or oil, I expect the same. Israel usually strikes at night to minimize casualties. It will be a symbolic gesture, albeit a more forceful one this time. That is, if they even attack before the US election. 45% is very much overvalued in the other market, especially since today it was reported that Israel was reevaluating their targets. I agree it is likely that they attack soon, but there's not much time left in the month. And even less for Iran to retaliate. Iran usually does a lot of fearmongering before their attacks for maximum propaganda effect. They want their hordes of followers to fill social media with "Iran will wipe our Israel soon" posts. It's how they improve their standing in the islamic world. The attacks don't actually have a military objective. Last time they killed 1 person - a Palestinian walking outside at night.

0

Amok

6 months ago

Israel likely won't even attack Iran this month. Iran always announces their attacks on Israel weeks in advance. To quote Nasrallah last time "The wait is part of the punishment". https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-813618 Of course Nasrallah got blown up barely a week later.... All politics are local. Iran only attacked Israel to grandstand and to save face in the muslim world. Their main concern is the fight for hegemony with Saudi Arabia. They don't want a real war with Israel (which they would lose). For now they have no reason to act, since Israel hasn't retaliated yet. And whatever Israel does, will likely be a symbolic gesture, much like last time. They'll hit a military target, some drone or rocket depot. Probably in the middle of the night again to minimize casualties, just like last time. Iran didn't react last time, nor will they react this time. With barely a week to go, the price here is ridiculous.

Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin?

Amok

6 months ago

yes. more voter fraud in atlanta

0

ScienceDog

6 months ago

is georgia undervalued here?

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

6 months ago

They'll just print more ballots. They don't care. Not like anyone's gonna stage a revolution over it. Pentagon is all DNC. Trump could get 90% of the vote and still lose.

1

gaymer420

6 months ago

aint no way he wins all of them right? Right guys?

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

6 months ago

Ah but you're forgetting Dominion voting machines and 160% voter turnout

1

dividends

6 months ago

Everyone talking about "assuming it's a 50/50 tossup there is a 0.7%" doesn't realise swing states are heavily correlated. If a candidate wins one they basically win all , similar to how biden did in 2020 except for NC and how Trump did in 2016 except for Nevada. If Trump is to win Michigan for example there is no chance in hell he loses North Carolina. Given recent polling I think he has it in him.

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

Amok

6 months ago

lol the US keeps trying to avoid a regional war and does everything to hold Israel back. Chance of this happening is 0%. Free money

0

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

6 months ago

PA. The dems will steal it.

1

gaymer420

6 months ago

aint no way he wins all of them right? Right guys?

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Amok

6 months ago

Every election except 2012 had a record turnout. And the US population has exploded in recent years. Free money.

5

Trump post about a memecoin before election?

Amok

6 months ago

-$103* now

0

GodofGamblers24

7 months ago

$WLFI it is Memecoin, you can find many Memecoins with the same name on the chain, so this is Yes

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Amok

6 months ago

Israel likely won't even attack Iran this month. Iran always announces their attacks on Israel weeks in advance. To quote Nasrallah last time "The wait is part of the punishment". https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-813618 Of course Nasrallah got blown up barely a week later.... All politics are local. Iran only attacked Israel to grandstand and to save face in the muslim world. Their main concern is the fight for hegemony with Saudi Arabia. They don't want a real war with Israel (which they would lose). For now they have no reason to act, since Israel hasn't retaliated yet. And whatever Israel does, will likely be a symbolic gesture, much like last time. They'll hit a military target, some drone or rocket depot. Probably in the middle of the night again to minimize casualties, just like last time. Iran didn't react last time, nor will they react this time. With barely a week to go, the price here is ridiculous.

1

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

7 months ago

Until the 2am ballot drops.

7

REEEEEEEEEE

7 months ago

RCP now has Trump winning every swing state. I'm betting we see Trump +3 to +4 across the board in the swing states with a national +2 popular vote by election day.

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

Amok

7 months ago

No way they target oil. It would infuriate the US, and after the assassination attempt on Bibi, you can bet they're going after high ranking military commanders now to make a statement. Hitting oil would be a sign of weakness

1

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

7 months ago

Biden has 2am ballot drops and Dominion. Trump doesn't.

1

demx

7 months ago

Biden won all in 2020

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Amok

7 months ago

Kamala going on antivaxxer Joe Rogan's podcast, risking an epic humiliation or confrontation and being torn apart on social media afterwards? lol hell no.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

How does one vote at UMA?

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

It's not even a coin. A coin operates on its own blockchain.

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

That means he has no stake. It's an honorary title. Not to mention the token isn't a coin, since it doesn't operate on its own blockchain.

0

BlackSky123

7 months ago

Yep, but he is "Chief Crypto Advocate." That definitely suffices for being involved. Yes wins, sorry about your shares! Sell now, three cents is better than zero!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

If yes wins, polymarket needs to be sued

0

fromthefuture

7 months ago

if the 'yes' wins this we're being scammed - just like the ppl who buy this token.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

The wording is terrible, but you can piece it together. 1. It's in the crypto section of the site (so physical coins are out of the question). 2. The word "coin" is in the headline, so it must be a "digital currency" that operates on its own blockchain. And Donald Trump must be "involved in the deployment". Involvement in the legal sense means he has to own a stake in the coin.

0

TanOri

7 months ago

Ok so is this market just a scam, the wording is way to ambiguous

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

Actually yes, Trump needs to have a stake in the coin. Not just promote someone else's coin.

0

PBet

7 months ago

they dont have to be employees etc, they market requires involvement, dimwit

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

This will be enough for UMA to vote No. Been on this site long enough to know how this goes,

0

Naturalnoob

7 months ago

© 2024 WorldLibertyFinancial, Inc. All Rights Reserved. *None of Donald J. Trump, any of his family members or any director, officer or employee of the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective affiliates is an officer, director, founder, or employee of World Liberty Financial or its affiliates.

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Amok

7 months ago

Hmm insiders buying yes...

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

He needs to own a stake in the coin. Not to mention that this is a governance token, not an actual crypto coin. Which he has no involvement in. I know how UMA will vote on this

1

mooger

7 months ago

should he write the smart contract himself also and deploy the liquidity to uniswap ?

Mozambique Presidential Election Winner

Amok

7 months ago

all elections everywhere are

0

just.some.guy

7 months ago

Are Mozambique elections crooked?

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Amok

7 months ago

Justken and 50 pence on Yes for today. Ohoh

0

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

Amok

7 months ago

How does this resolve if it's a call in?

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Amok

7 months ago

Israel knows that the next US president (Harris) will not be on its side. If they want to prevent the Iranian nuke, they have to act now. Why do you think they went all out on Hezbollah like they did? They're buying themselves 4 years of breathing room until (hopefully) a Republican wins.

0

Foreseeable.

7 months ago

Holding Yes in this market is basically saying we have something close to a world war 3 within the next 3 month. 40% for that?! Seriously?!

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

7 months ago

It could be. But always remember the Dems have Dominion and 2am ballot drops.

3

CryptoAll

7 months ago

its not possible that Trump wins every swing state.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Soon. But not today

0

bbman1214

7 months ago

I trust bibi... to bomb the shit out of middle east

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Expect this to go down rapidly. Israel attacked Iran and Yemen so the rockets would hit in the early morning hours. Friday is Yom Kippur, and it's extremely unlikely Israel will launch a military attack on its sacred holiday. Friday at sundown Shabbat starts. They may attack on Sunday (first day of the week in Israel). But at this point, it's more likely they will do some more targeted assassinations like in Syria today.

0

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

Amok

7 months ago

Wars of conquest are illegal. War itself is legal. Though it should be noted that the UN isn't a world government. It's a forum.

0

FamilyCapital

7 months ago

As far as I know, after WW 2 it's prohibited by UN to declare war. This is why we see "limited operations" or "special military operation", but in fact those are... you know...

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Thing is it would cast a shadow over Yom Kippur in Israel. People don't want escalations on their holy days. I'm actually pretty sure Israel will instead do some more aggressive targeted killings of commanders. Costs less political capital and puts the enemy in fear.

0

Will143

7 months ago

What could be more surprising than attacking Iran during a holy day.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

oh fuck

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

yeah, seems like it. and i dont think israel wants to overshadow their yom kippur holiday

0

youngy

7 months ago

I was at P(90) nothing happens until at least late Wednesday (dependent on when Gallant leaves the US) but ALL signs are genuinely pointing to an attack after this question resolves. We are getting the, "we are going to strike" rhetoric from Israeli officials, but everything from US officials suggest that the planning / negotiations are still ongoing.

Megaquake in October?

Amok

7 months ago

Actually no. Normally there's about one quake over 8.0 per year. We're long overdue. This isn't the bet to make money in, it's one to park excess liquidity at relatively low risk.

0

Mike2025

7 months ago

I will bet no every month. At these odds I'm sure to win over the long term.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

A governance token for a company Trump has no legal involvement with. Not a coin. And Trump isn't involved. Promoting doesn't count. He's promoting Bitcoin all the time as well. The bet states "Will Trump launch a coin"

0

Car

7 months ago

That sounds to me like a token about to launch

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

This market will have more crying than the September Lebanon one

1

🤺JustPunched

7 months ago

Yes holders spamming the comment section instead of buying, never a good sign lol.

Will there be another debate?

Amok

7 months ago

No is free money

4

'Joker: Folie à Deux' Opening Weekend Box Office

Amok

7 months ago

Numbers are out. Resolve when?

0

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

7 months ago

That's what people said in 2016, and look how that turned out. The botched hurricane response is the october surprise Trump's been waiting for

0

Plutos

7 months ago

There is no way on gods green earth that trump will win every swingstate. Maybe a few yes, but all? gimme a break

Trump wins every swing state?

Amok

7 months ago

Not gonna lie, Trump's Butler rally was crazy impressive. Crowd is fired up. Could be another 2016

3

Will there be another debate?

Amok

7 months ago

Nah man, just sell. You can still get some of your money back. Betting isn't about honor.

0

yungretard

7 months ago

ngl boys, not very comforting that a) im the second largest yes holder b) #1 yes holder is a retard who’s red lifetime pnl b) #3 is also a retard with red lifetime pnl. c) #4 is a retard who is currently underwater on a bet about tether going underwater d) #5 is 50-pence which would be good except he’s made gorrilions off this site and will be fine if this goes to 0. Not gonna dump on u tho, bc I can afford to lose this and it’s the honorable thing to do.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Amok

7 months ago

Which is barely above inflation

0

Mike2025

7 months ago

Free money right here. 1.83% profit in 37 days.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

"credible journalism" *links to cnn* lol

0

denizz

7 months ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

Trump post about a memecoin before election?

Amok

7 months ago

kinda is

0

;lkhkjgjkb

8 months ago

thats not a meme coin lol

Israel military action against Iraq by Sunday?

Amok

7 months ago

Iraq shot a rocket into Israel

0

Butterpickledhead

7 months ago

Why would Israel take military action against Iraq when there is no indication that Iraq currently poses a significant threat to regional or international security?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Hunting terrorists isn't the same as occupying.

1

yourrapist1776

7 months ago

The IDF is just vacationing in lebanon. No military actions are taking place, if you exclude all the fighting and deaths

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Shabbat has begun now. Here's what ChatGPT has to say: "Shabbat begins at sunset on Friday and lasts until nightfall on Saturday. The precise timing varies depending on location and the time of year, as it is determined by when the sun sets. In Israel, for example: In October, Shabbat typically begins around 5:30 to 6:00 p.m. on Friday and ends about 6:30 to 7:00 p.m. on Saturday. So, the window for a potential Israeli retaliatory strike today would likely be before sunset, or after Shabbat ends on Saturday night, unless an emergency necessitates action during Shabbat." Retaliating against Iran will be meant to be a show of strength. You don't show strength by abandoning your religious principles. So... Happy Shabbat NO holders.

3

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

And Shabbat begins in around 6pm Israeli time (so roughly 1 hour) today. Israel generally doesn't launch new military activities on Shabbat. It would severely anger Netanyahu's religious coalition partners.

0

dav1

7 months ago

It's Roch Hachana today

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

I doubt it will happen today. Last time was on a thursday. Friday is the day of prayer in Islam, and Israel is interested in not framing their war religiously. Saturday is Shabbat, so they won't attack then either.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

Doesn't matter, since the incursion from the night in question was pulled out. That was not an invasion force. What they do in october is a different market.

0

Donkov

7 months ago

Look at what they do, not what they say. They already control some Lebanon clay.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

To those who don't understand the difference between a raid and an invasion: Remember when the US killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011? US soldiers entered Pakistan, attacked Bin Laden's hideout, killed him, then pulled back out. Does that mean the US invaded Pakistan, let alone tried to "establish control" oder Pakistan? Of course not. Same with the Israeli raids into Lebanon during the night of Sep 30 / Oct 1. They went in an pulled their troops back out. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c This market is about Israel attacking with intent to either annex or occupy a part of Lebanon to establish a "buffer zone". The IDF has not laid out such plans yet. Therefore this can only resolve NO

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Because the September raid ended with Israel pulling the troops back out. The October invasion is a new attack.

0

Donkov

7 months ago

Lets hope, but whales are looking to resolve Sept as a NO. How can Sept be a NO, but Nov YES?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

You hate money

0

PolyRig-Fried

7 months ago

The best argument to buy yes with a source?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

But they pulled back. So that September raid was not with intent to establish control. Even the current invasion may just be an incursion.

0

Donkov

7 months ago

Yep, the "special military raids". They can call it whatever they want. Doesnt change the reality, that they right now occupy parts of Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

The world always gets their panties in a bunch over whatever Israel does. Fighting terrorists in Gaza becomes a "genocide" (lol), and a few scouting raids become an invasion. The fact that the troops withdrew again shows that, at least in September, Israel didn't invade with intent to establish control. This may change in October, if they decide to establish a buffer zone. But for now, no occupation has occurred.

0

PolyRig-Fried

7 months ago

While Israel insists that the “limited” and “localized” ground operation it launched in Lebanon Tuesday does not amount to a major incursion, the situation on the ground seems to suggest it is preparing for the possibility of expanding its presence there. Lebanon’s military said Wednesday an Israeli military force breached the border, reaching 400 meters (about a quarter of a mile) into Lebanese territory before withdrawing. The IDF has sent evacuation orders to 51 villages in southern Lebanon, instructing residents to move north. The area under the IDF evacuation orders makes up a quarter of all Lebanese territory, with its inhabitants pushed more than 30 miles north of their homes. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

No, since Trump isn't officially involved.

0

Bullrun2025

7 months ago

Does worldlibertyfinancial take into account ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

guy blew a quarter million on this. insane.

0

duckduck

7 months ago

chad in shambles

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

when about a week ago the other market was opened (will israeli troops enter lebanon) it became very clear that this market here had a much stricter requirement of the extent of an occupation to resolve to Yes.

1

McLarry

7 months ago

Such a pathetic attempt to categorize this market here as: the screamers again, who can't accept that they lost the bet regularly. Let's just ignore the fact that many intelligent people here previously bet on yes and certainly didn't change their minds because they suddenly realized that Israel didn't invade Lebanon. They realized something else.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

what happened?

1

DT24

7 months ago

gg everyone. that was fun.

Another Iran strike on Israel by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

They do it for clout. Regional influence. They have no intent of getting into an actual war with Israel or forcing Israel's hand. They know Israel has their finger on the big red button and wouldn't hesitate to turn Iran into a glass plate if needed.

0

Eyebrows

7 months ago

What I don't get is, why would they send one volley, only to piss Israel off, and then do nothing else? How is that a good idea? Is Iran full of idiots? I have no idea and can't keep up with this market so I'm sold out. Israel Lebanon and Hamas I've followed. But what in the world does Iran think they'll acomplish?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

Democracy. Ain't it beautiful

0

McLarry

7 months ago

This joke works to some extent because, as with the Democrats, UMA whales have a lot of votes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

Told you this was gonna go NO. There was a separate market for Israeli forces entering Lebanon. The key wording here is "establish control". The limited special forces / scouting raids in the early morning of Oct 1 don't qualify, because they never established control. Those forces pulled back out.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

Not an operation with intent to establish 'control'. That's the key word.

0

HsB34sgg

7 months ago

What is a RAID? “During the operation, the troops conducted a targeted raid…” https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/israel-at-war/briefings-by-idf-spokesperson-rear-admiral-daniel-hagari/october-24-press-briefings/press-briefing-by-idf-spokesperson-radm-daniel-hagari-october-1-18-50-pm-2024/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

That's gotta hurt. Lesson to everyone: don't go all in. No matter how sure you are of a bet

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

7 months ago

Shit I saw Chad going form +4k to -130k XDDDD

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september? This is the bet for Israeli forces entering Lebanon without occupying territory.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

I think you're confusing the bets here. There was a separate bet for Israeli forces entering Lebanese territory. This is about "establishing control". Occupying. A clear NO.

0

PBet

7 months ago

you NO's keep referring to the word 'invasion' which simply doesnt matter. read the rules. 'military offensive' means attacking as opposed to defending. Incursions, raids or whatever are clearly offensive.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

It always does

0

LastChanceSaloon

7 months ago

Are we beholder to the intelligence/opinions of UMA voters? Is that what this will boil down to?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

No, since they went back out again. "Etablish control" means to occupy, to remain in the area and assert control. Not just raiding. There is another market for that "will Israeli forces enter lebanese territory"

0

PBet

7 months ago

The word invasion doesnt matter since its not in the rules. That a military offensive started on sep 30th is hopefully indisputable so only the 'intention to establish control over any portion of lebanon' remains disputed. While it is vague, I would argue that clearing/securing a single building leads to controlling this part of Lebanon. To argue that there was no intention to clear anything would be madness. On a larger scale, the goal to enforce the UN resolution should also count as intent to establish control since they want to control Hezbollah fighters/weapons in that area.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

Early hours is when? Either way, they retreated again, hence no established control.

1

PDIDDY

7 months ago

they entered in october 1st in the early hours in Israel time which means september 30 in ET time

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-822893 Article in the Jerusalem post making a case for boots on the ground and occupying southern Lebanon. Confirms it hasn't happened yet.

5

Israel military response against Iran today?

Amok

7 months ago

Mountainman again lost and deleted all his comments. Eternal loser that guy

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

That article says Oct 1st.

0

McLarry

7 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?

Amok

7 months ago

24 trump if i counted right

0

redeyeknight

7 months ago

Anyone keeping count of Trump/Kamala sayings?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

"Intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" Means they have to actually occupy the territory as in Gaza. Merely entering and conducting operations isn't enough. It seems very likely that Israel will move to occupy, but so far that decision hasn't been made as per Jpost

1

JoeBETS

7 months ago

the villages probably count right? we lost

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

They don't account for Dominion

0

Meow.Zedong

7 months ago

Nah, that Michigan POTUS election winner going to Harris is pretty risky. Atlas and Trafalgar have Trump 3+ and dem internal polling show Trump 3+ also.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Amok

7 months ago

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

may not even need one. if hezbollah is beaten, the lebanese christians could take control again.

0

denizz

7 months ago

The current exchanges of fire are extremely lopsided. Israel will prefer to go on like this for a while before resorting to a ground invasion.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

A non-fungible token isn't a coin though. If it was, Yes would have already won.

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

This was said in relation to the $DJT token. If the NFT launched last month did not count, PM would have "added context". They have not, because you can “add context” but you can’t completely change the rules. A fungible token and a Non-Fungible token, are both tokens. This is fact, not something that is up for a debate. The rules are crystal clear. You are stuck in your position, other big "NO" holders are already jumping off the ship and this is just the beginning :) Best of Luck.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

lol that's a bet I'd take you on, dummy

3

0x7D871aCF19120b233198290A1Ac05D9D72aFA383-1723418104009

7 months ago

Israel wont see 2025

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

That could be a good reason for Israel to do it. Not so much to influence the election, but because they know Kamala hates them and will tighten the thumbscrews. Better get things done now and buy a few years of quiet until a Republican shows up who can actually win.

2

MontyWalsh

7 months ago

The Global elite will not let this happen before the US election. This would be bearish for Kamala and they wont let anything damper her chance. Similar to the Fed cutting 50 when everybody expected 25

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

US has been leaking info to Hezbollah for years now. The Israelis know not to trust the US anymore

0

Car

7 months ago

https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/1839005182878953975?s=46&t=Colxjm4-Co9jTiM0tdXATA

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

"Intended to establish control". Aka an occupation. Not the same as sending troops in to smoke out some terrorists, then leaving. They would have to occupy Lebanon like they do Gaza at the moment. As Lebanon is a sovereign state not at war with Israel, I doubt that will be the case.

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

Whenever someone writes more than two sentences, you belch out the word salad line. Having trouble reading?

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

That was just a bunch of illogical word salad filled with falsehoods, but anyone with two braincells knows that, so I won’t waste my time dismantling it. With that being said you actually did a fantastic job in making my point for me when you said "I will deploy as much capital as needed to ensure this market resolves correctly." This shows that this is not about a fair resolution, it is just whatever the insiders, like yourself, decide is reality. The rules are crystal clear, if a token is released the market will resolve "Yes". A token was released. No debate necessary. Anything but a “Yes” resolution for this market further damages the legitimacy of this platform.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

Correct. Had this been about NFTs, it would have resolved months ago. And it's literally in the headline: "Coin". An NFT is not a coin.

1

LaCuriosidad

7 months ago

If this market has anything to do with NFTs then why did YES trade below 10-20 cents for MONTHS until WLFI rumors took over? Trump had ALREADY released multiple NFT collections and additional context reads “Tokens launched prior to the start date of this market will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.” If anyone provides a legitimate answer to this question and demonstrates that this market has anything to do with NFTs, then I will insta dump my 78.9k NO shares and flip this market in seconds.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

Won't hold up. You can't have a betting market in the crypto section about releasing a coin (which everyone understands to be a crypto currency), and then have the bet resolve yes when Trump sells a minted physical coin (without monetary value) or an NFT, which is a token, but not a coin as in the headline of the bet. PM would open themselves up to a lawsuit if they pulled such a stunt. I think all sides can agree the wording of this bet is terrible, and PM probably should have just refunded everyone here since they fucked up.

1

DonaldEnjoyer

7 months ago

Lawyered, you struggle to see our side because you're basing it on vibes and not rules. The "vibe" of the market upon creation was around Trump releasing a meme coin or announcing his involvement in one of the ones that already existed. But the actual written rules do not in any way dictate that. The written rules have been satisfied three times over at least.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Amok

7 months ago

90 minutes and counting

0

Keni

7 months ago

Bro is dragging this rally. Every time I think he's done, it's a new tangent 💀

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Amok

7 months ago

didnt see that coming. he's jumping from subject to subject at record speed

1

0x84

7 months ago

sex change out of nowhere

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Amok

7 months ago

He's done with the trans stuff. sex change isnt happening

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Amok

7 months ago

million again

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

They have drones and missiles that could reach. But if they did that, then Israel would take off the gloves and annihilate them. Hezb knows this, so they'll keep posturing.

0

fedor12234

7 months ago

Ahaha, Tel Aviv. With what.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Yes, but this is the occupation market. Not the ground assault market.

1

n/a

7 months ago

The Ayatollah called the pager attacks an act of war. Israel's begun bombing and insiders claim they're laying the groundwork for an assault. All of this escalation within less than the span of a week. You'd be foolish not to make the bet imo, free money. At the very least, expect more escalation and a rise in share price

Will there be another debate?

Amok

7 months ago

Look Ma, they're selling dollars for 75 cents

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Biden is fine with more war. So long as it's just Hezbollah and Hamas firing on Israel, he has no problem with it

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Wait, you mean biden is not in favor of more war!?? this changes everything

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

To be fair, the White House would just as soon say 'Existence not in Israel's interest'. I don't think Israel gives two shits about what this white house says anymore.

1

Car

7 months ago

Maybe you believe me when it comes from the White House instead from me

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

This bet is literally in the crypto category.

0

Erfank

7 months ago

There is not a single word about a crypto token Nowhere in the discussion. I urge Yes holders to propose resolution for this market. We have won already

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

7 months ago

Worst was that his incessant spamming tricked Hungrytoad and others into buying into the hype, and losing a lot of money. This is the first market here I ever really didn't enjoy participating in. Sure there's a little pump and dump here and there, but generally people post decent arguments for their positions. Which is what makes it a market. But the vile name calling and fake news spam from mountainman cost people a lot of money when the market crashed instead of cooling down more gradually. Yes, we're all responsible for our bets, and Hungrytoad got fucked by the selling system on top of it. Stuff like this can't make anyone feel good, unless you're a complete sociopath.

0

RememberAmalek

7 months ago

You're the one trying to fool and scam as many people as possible

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

The only reason Gaza still exists is because of the US.

0

SWIFTTT

7 months ago

the only reason israel still exists is bc of U.S. lol

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Don't lose your money man. The fix is in

0

MeNoDatNutReelMuni

7 months ago

I wish us both luck. I have the Republican party winning this election on another site but I'm nervous.

Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

Amok

7 months ago

Ahem... Dominion would like to differ

0

HeHeardANoise

7 months ago

Lesson learned. No more betting when lefist biased polsters have their thumb on the scale. From now on put your money on Trump winning the election; guaranteed win.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Israel may want to get it out of the way before Harris becomes President. Once that happens, the thumb screws will be tightened considerably, and Israel's ability to defend itself will be hampered. They may want to inflict so much damage now, that Hamas and Hezbollah will be busy licking their wounds for the next four years until maybe DeSantis or a Republican who's not a rambling lunatic can win the presidency. That being said, I still don't expect a ground occupation. But they will bomb the absolute shit out of Hezbollah.

0

Car

8 months ago

you really think israel wants to start another war? They will just keep sending rocket to kill hezbollah officials from long distance

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

7 months ago

Not a ground war. And especially not an occupation.

0

Bwrbouere

8 months ago

The war already started

Trump fires campaign manager?

Amok

7 months ago

You people do realize the election is in 44 days, right? Early voting has begun today. How bad would it look if Trump fired his campaign team? His narrative of "I'm winning" would fall apart. Never mind that they actually ran an extremely clever and disciplined campaign for him. This whole rumor of Trump firing his campaign staff is based on the ravings of coke-head Anthony Scaramucci two weeks ago.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

8 months ago

my man!

0

Car

8 months ago

Israel could invade, blow the whole country up and kill people and this market wont resolve to YES. That one sentence fucks up the whole market. That is why I requested a new market with better rules:

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

8 months ago

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820906 Nothing ever happens.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

8 months ago

The wording is an absolute disaster and can be interpreted any way. Israel doesn't intend to occupy Lebanon. Incursions to smoke out terror cells shouldn't count under this wording. Only an occupation would.

0

JohnWhyNot

8 months ago

"a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

8 months ago

They spoke of establishing a buffer zone, as in pushing back Hezbollah a little from the border regions, which they have been bombarding for the past year.

1

kingsirpredictionconnoisseur

8 months ago

What would they even gain from invading. Just makes them more vulnerable to outside attacks

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Amok

8 months ago

The wording of this market is a disaster. "Invade" means entering the territory, which would include ground incursions to kill terrorists. "Intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" on the other hand is open to interpretation. To establish an occupational force? To establish a buffer zone? Or to temporarily clean out terror cells without any intent to establish long term control? (the latter seems more likely). Clarification needed

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

It's a non fungible governance token that can't be traded, isn't available to the public, and is for a company that Trump and the Trump organization officially have no involvement in. Doesn't qualify.

2

2050

8 months ago

What about $WLFI? :D

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

Amok

8 months ago

They did with that one Iran strike.

0

Prophet👻

8 months ago

Like when has Israel ever taken responsibility. Plus this strike did affect doctors using pager it seem. So highly unlikely.

Another GTA 6 trailer released by October 4?

Amok

8 months ago

2041

1

Car

9 months ago

When gta7

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

8 months ago

Entering yes. But occupying? That seems extremely unlikely. Would put their soldiers at immense risk and stretch their manpower. It's probably better for them to just do small incursions and air strikes.

0

nnimrodd

8 months ago

Obviously Israel will end up entering Lebanon a little bit till Nov. More likely than not

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

WLF. They almost got it right. Should have named it WTF.

0

Lawyered.eth

8 months ago

No matter what you think of trump, whether you love or hate him, whether you think he is "involved" or not, whether you think there will be a token, and whether it will launch by Nov 4, at least we can all agree, this project is garbage. Hello, 2020 wants its idea back. And that name, WTF???

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Same goes for any "who will lead on polymarket" markets. We saw what happened last time. Best is to stick to sports or geopolitics.

0

Justifax

8 months ago

My suggestion is avoid this market like the plague. If you have orders in it, sorry, but whatever you do don't buy anymore. This is all sketchy as shit.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

That has to be a glitch.

0

Naturalnoob

8 months ago

it went mostly to mkrv4 who took in 49k shares at 2c

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

You're a class act! Seriously.

0

Naturalnoob

8 months ago

@mrkrv4 if you sell 49k shares at 3c, i will rebate @hungrytoad the matching amount of your profit which is about $450

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Did the market even drop to 8 cents? I didn't even see that it go that low, and I watched it nonstop. Lowest the graph shows is 18 cents. Maybe he can appeal this, if it was a glitch

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

Nobody took the money. But, yes, you accidentally gave it to them. You sold your shares to them for 8 cents when they were worth more.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

That sucks big time. Really sorry for you man. Market orders in a live market are dangerous as hell. Limit orders hold their own dangers, too though. You put in a limit, nobody orders, and suddenly when information drops that would make you win the market, someone snatches your shares. Too much luck involved with betting on live markets like this. Really sad to see you lose this much. That's a gut punch :(

1

Hungrytoad

8 months ago

so much for me being an insider btw lol

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

8 months ago

BSW just said they would support banning the AfD. Yeah, no coalition there.

0

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

8 months ago

As a German, AfD is your last hope not to be living in a caliphate in 15 years.

8

CalOne1

8 months ago

As a German I'm definitely more scared about the AfD than 91% 😂

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

I asked ChatGPT how this bet should resolve: This is definitely a tricky situation, and I can see why the community is split. The key issue lies in interpreting what counts as "involvement in the deployment of a new token." Based on the bet's wording: Trump's involvement: If we take the bet literally, it asks for "conclusive, definitive evidence" that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of the token. According to the whitepaper, neither Trump nor the Trump Organization is officially involved in the deployment—they are simply promoting it. If the promotion is the extent of Trump’s engagement, that may not meet the threshold of "involvement in deployment." Token definition: The governance token, while a token, is not available to the public, and if Trump is not directly involved in its creation or distribution, then it likely doesn't qualify as "Trump launching a new coin" in the conventional sense, as your original assumption about the term "coin" likely implies a publicly traded or available token. Given the whitepaper's explicit statement that Trump and his organization are not involved in the token's deployment, and considering the bet's specific wording, the most reasonable resolution might lean towards "No", as this doesn't seem to fit the criteria of Trump being definitively involved in deploying a new token.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

I hope he just leaves. Dude turned every market he was in into insult-ridden ragefests.

4

uxzi

8 months ago

What alias do we think Mountainman goes by in his new life?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

As per the whitepaper, neither he, nor his sons are directly involved in the platform. They will likely receive some of the governance tokens for their promotion help, which is a fancy way of putting them on the board of directors without them being on the board of directors.

0

Ravenholdt

8 months ago

SO is D. Trump even involved? He was on the space, but this wasn't a launch, and they said "the Trumps" are involved. Which ones? Donald never talked about this project a single time during his 45 min

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

It's a governance token for voting rights on the upcoming platform. Not a real coin. Trump isn't directly involved in the project, as was specified in the whitepaper. UMA is notoriously strict about their interpretation of the wording of these markets. This can only resolve No

0

OmenOfLord

8 months ago

There will be a token, Trump is involved. Now we have to wonder if it will be launched before the election. Literally the final question, considering the whitepaper and financial incentive I assume it will be. GLTA.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

UMA is going to have a field day with this market. But ultimately, this market was always about Donald Trump releasing a memecoin or his own crypto coin. Meaning it would have been open to the public, not some governance token only available to insiders on a project by his sons and his golf partner.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

And DJT has no stake in it, not any involvement in the release.

0

Amok

8 months ago

A non tradeable, non transferable governance token not open to public. Not a coin. And not launched by Donald Trump. No wins.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

A non tradeable, non transferable governance token not open to public. Not a coin. And not launched by Donald Trump. No wins.

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

BOOM

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

This is the first time I ever listened to cryptobros speaking in my life. It will also be the last time.

6

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

"This is a generation of love" How much coke are they snorting there?

0

Amok

8 months ago

"You guys are everything that crypto stands for". This feels like tele-evangelism. A group of lunatics who think they are anointed ones, airing out their delusions of saving the world using a lingo only they understand. And endless ass kissing.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

"You guys are everything that crypto stands for". This feels like tele-evangelism. A group of lunatics who think they are anointed ones, airing out their delusions of saving the world using a lingo only they understand. And endless ass kissing.

9

·

Liked by FluffyGold, 0x6Ce5A898... and 7 others

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

If this goes on much longer, the only ones listening will be polymarket people with their trigger finger on the sell button.

0

peasant

8 months ago

Down to a hair over 50k people on the podcast. Just let this end

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

In theory, I even kinda like what they're peddling. A lending alternative to big banks via private online investment. Could be interesting to do that via a blockchain platform. Others have tried it before, but it never took off. I highly doubt this project will crack the formula.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

99.9% of what crypto is.

1

dayvisit

8 months ago

It's incredible the amount of words they can string together just to say absolutely nothing of substance.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

This is the most boring podcast ever. The Trumps were talking about politics and people being cut off from credit. These guys are just repeating "crypto space" and "crypto community" a hundred times.

5

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Remember what happened with your ABC whistleblower. UMA will rule no.

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

COPE

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

The market says "will Donald Trump launch a coin". Not will his sons or will his golf partners and some kid from Canada launch a coin. Unless Trump has a stake in this, it's over.

5

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

UMA to the rescue

0

TheRoliz

8 months ago

The Title isn't Will Trump son's launch a coin before the election? It's will Trump do it

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Amok

8 months ago

If it happens, it will happen before the election. Israel is being attacked from all sides, and with Kamala in the white house, they won't have a lot of leeway to defend themselves or open new fronts.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1834367714313269324 No. "Tune in to hear our vision for making finance great again." Is the statement by WLFI. Still, Ethereum-based DeFi projects (especially forks) can move from presale to launch fairly quickly if all technical aspects, including smart contracts and liquidity, are in place. Outside of an unforseen delay or perhaps a fork not counting as a coin as per polymarket rules (wouldn't be the first time), yes side wins.

1

Clenc

8 months ago

Did Trump say he would launch a crypto on Monday?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Here's hoping that brain pain is a tumor. I want you to die.

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

haha. Reading that gibberish hurt my brain, everything you said was false. But good job buddy. Solid 0 fact write-up!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

You know we can see you activity history, right? You bought and sold all along to make up for your initial losses. If you had been 100% confident, you wouldn't have sold then, nor would you have sold today before the price went to 79. You didn't have insider info and you weren't telling people how to make money. You were pumping your shares to exit. Don't pretend you were spreading any information of value. You pumped your shares and got lucky today. So far so good. But your vile behavior and constant insults here made this bet unpleasant as opposed to other markets, where people treat each other with respect and post generally helpful information, i.e. the climate prediction markets. You couldn't lose gracefully, and you can't win gracefully. Which tells me you're a subhuman piece of shit. And with that said, I hope you die soon. In agony.

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

Imagine the brain rot delusion to call me a loser, when you are holding "NO" and are about to lose yet another $2k on this platform. Anyone can compare our PNLs, it is all public. But thank you for donating your money to me, steak on you tonight :)

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Nah man, he won big. He may be an insufferable piece of shit, and he got lucky in the end. But he manipulated the market like a pro, bought low and sold high even after falling for the initial lara trump hack. He made more money off this bet than I make in a year.

0

JohnathanDoe

8 months ago

Mountain man exited at 50C! What a loser!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Fake account. There are thousands of those right now peddling scams.

1

babendums

8 months ago

hehehe: https://x.com/realDoaaldTrump/status/1834347848768381305

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

I have never wished ill upon another person in my life. But you, I hope you die of cancer. And your family. Whoever shares your genes. May you all die horribly.

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

You guys literally lie about everything and are insanely obsessed with me. I could not tell one "NO" holder from another. All just anonymous tards to me. Trump team said announcements this week.This week still has more 2 HUGE days left. Hold onto your underpants... Smart money has been market buying, we know what's coming ;) but you guys spend more time on here day dreaming about me than doing research. Tik Tok. Tik Tok.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

He's losing the election. May as well go all in now before he flees the country. Which he should if he loses, unless he's a complete retard and wants to spend the rest of his life in prison.

0

Schopenhauer

8 months ago

Yup , that one seems legit... But wtf is that timing, you don't chill a token one month before presidential vote !

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

They reposted on telegram. Token presale has launched. Only quest6ion is if the actual token will launch before the election now. Yes looks set to win.

1

Sardinianshepherd

8 months ago

last time took 3min to the official WLFI X account to re-twit Trump post, now it is 1h and still no WLFI repost, maybe the intern is sleeping

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

They reposted. Token is in presale. Looks like yes wins.

0

Sardinianshepherd

8 months ago

last time took 3min to the official WLFI X account to re-twit Trump post, now it is 1h and still no WLFI repost, maybe the intern is sleeping

Bitcoin above $55,000 on September 13?

Amok

8 months ago

Shit, going down again

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

To be fair, he's manipulating the market with his relentless fake news and making a small profit off it.

0

JohnathanDoe

8 months ago

It's like he's living in a twisted version of the Matrix, where the house always wins. No matter how hard he tries to break free, the pull of the casino is too strong. He'll max out credit cards, empty bank accounts, even steal to get money to gamble.

NFL Sunday

Amok

8 months ago

or not

1

Apsalar

8 months ago

fun game! or so i am told

Maduro out in 2024?

Amok

8 months ago

Which unfortunately, the US always does

0

Chimp1

8 months ago

The way the opposition acts you would think this would be above 50%. They're such losers and will never escape socialism because they're scared and weak..

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Announcements mean nothing. They have to actually deploy the token for yes holders to win. They need regulatory approval first, if the company is US-based (and I doubt Trump will launch overseas).

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Is that why you're selling your yes shares? Pathetic

0

Mountainman

8 months ago

Announcements coming this week! Imagine still holding "NO". Get ready :)

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

Is that why you're selling your shares?

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

Wow guys, I leave for a night, and come back to the comment section to see that it has turned into a MountainMan Discussion Board haha. I must say I am a bit flattered, but let us keep to the topic on hand…. The Trump Token! This is a simple bet at this point: Will the token drop prior to the election? The following is a breakdown of why I think “YES” is a sure bet:

Maduro out in 2024?

Amok

8 months ago

Nor will Europe or the US. Socialism always wins.

1

Chimp1

8 months ago

The way the opposition acts you would think this would be above 50%. They're such losers and will never escape socialism because they're scared and weak..

Trump's NY sentencing delayed past election?

Amok

8 months ago

Why is this not resolved?

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Amok

8 months ago

just like those 2 am election ballot drops. you know they're coming, but you're still dumb enough to vote.

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

Amok

8 months ago

last time i ever bet on this type of market. fucking shit

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

I asked ChatGPT how long it estimates the release to take from whitepaper stage. It said 6-24 months and mentioned these steps: "Development and Testing (3 to 18 months or more): Core Development: Building the blockchain, smart contracts, and underlying technology is crucial. This phase can take several months depending on how complex the platform is (e.g., creating a new blockchain from scratch versus building a token on an existing platform like Ethereum). Testnet: Before the official launch, projects often release a testnet to ensure the code works as intended. This period can last a few months as bugs are discovered and fixed. Regulatory and Compliance (1 to 6 months or more): Depending on the region, projects need to ensure they comply with regulations, such as anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) rules. This can extend timelines, especially if multiple jurisdictions are involved."

3

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before October?

Amok

8 months ago

Nothing ever happens. Especially here. 2 1/2 years of war, and Belarus stayed out of it. They won't get involved now.

0

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

8 months ago

No one will form a coalition with the AfD The newest strategy is for the Left to tolerate a minority government by CDU, SPD and BSW https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/thueringen/landtagswahl/koalition-regierung-mehrheit-afd-bsw-linke-cdu-100.html

3

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?

Amok

8 months ago

Netanyahu knows that if he agrees to a ceasefire now, he'll hand Kamala the presidency. Not gonna happen.

0

SaulGoodmanEsq

8 months ago

Washington pulls the strings and they're openly calling for a ceasefire at this point. Biden will force Ben to take the deal with the promise he can continue the war after the election. Considering there's a 100% chance a deal will happen before November 4th, this is amazingly undervalued.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

@Mountainman NFTs aren't regarded as securities by the SEC. Here's an overview of the SEC going after crypto issuers. https://www.sec.gov/securities-topics/crypto-assets With all the lawfare going on against Trump, they are 100% certain to sue him, and the media will claim he's pulling a scam, thereby distracting from his message, crowd sizes and all the other stuff. Trump was shopping around the idea to investors recently. To build the platform, register the currency and secure investment will take time. Time better spent campaigning by both Trump and his sons. Lawyers, registration, will all take time as well. 8 week before an election that will likely determine whether he spends the rest of his life in Prison or not... not happening.

1

Mountainman

8 months ago

That statement alone shows you have no idea what you are talking about. Buy some more "NO"

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

He'd have the SEC all over his ass if he did. Just one more potential scandal he doesn't need, and a terrible distraction before a tight election.

4

n/a

8 months ago

I don't get it either, if one thing is for sure, it's the tranny grifter in chief going to take the last penny of insulin money from his cult following. Maybe people are just doubting that he’s gonna do it before the election?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

pssst don't tell them

1

babendums

8 months ago

Jokes..

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

UMA will rule the nft a token

0

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

Amok

8 months ago

A ceasefire would mean Hamas wins. Trump won't call for that.

1

Anesti

8 months ago

I think he has to say Ceasefire since Kamala did. Lex Fridman is Jewish and been one of the largest outlets in regards to Gaza vs Israel. Also another point is that Netanyahu is facing strikes in Israel so it would be convenient for Trump to call for a ceasefire now. It's politically safe.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Amok

8 months ago

This would be a huge blunder on Trump's part. His sneakers were a marketing failure and made him look desperate. This would be even worse. Most people don't even know what crypto is. Trump doing this, and the coin inevitably falling, would make him look like he doesn't know what he's doing. Worse, it would open him up to being portrayed as a scammer. He may as well concede right then and there. There's no way he's doing this. Not this close to the election.

0

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

8 months ago

Like those 2am Biden drops. Western democracy in action

0

Boekelberg1991

8 months ago

A mistake was made with some calculation and now afd have even less seats: https://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-8094.html

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?

Amok

8 months ago

This one could go either way. He's no longer staying in the Tunnels and instead supposedly dressed up as a women. Israel are offering a big reward for information on him.

0

Netanyahu out by October 31?

Amok

8 months ago

It will last until Hamas is defeated

0

OP2024

10 months ago

Public pressure in Israel to oust Netanjahu is growing. He can only last as long as the war is going on, but that won't be very long any more.

Will Germany's AfD make it into government?

Amok

8 months ago

Yes. BSW are communists, AFD are essentially the same policies as Trump. I don't see it happening

4

0xc6111a8A9ea17dfE3eDff575cEcBB66287570f9C-1722702277810

8 months ago

is a minority gov of AfD and BSW such far fetched?

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

Amok

8 months ago

These mention markets are such a clusterfuck. It always comes down to bullshit. Teach - teacher, joy - joyful. Stay away from these

1

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

At this point, I'd trust Chinese courts more than European

0

GreedyMacFear

8 months ago

this is europe, not china

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

Oh dear. Let me guess "We don't know which gender the baby identifies as"?

0

LMNOP

8 months ago

If you want more entertainment, take a look at the beiber baby market.

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

This is gonna be one of those polymarket scams again, where Durov is still in custody, but it resolves yes, because he was released from initial police custody. Similar to how Maduro "lost" the Venezuelan election, but is still president, or Kennedy dropped out but maintains he didn't and is still on the ballot.

3

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

ChatGPT thinks he stays in custody: The charges against him include being complicit in storing and distributing child sexual abuse material (CSAM), facilitating drug trafficking, and organized fraud12. Additionally, Durov is accused of money laundering and being part of a criminal association3. The French court has highlighted Telegram’s lack of cooperation with law enforcement, especially regarding requests for information or documents related to these crimes1. This lack of cooperation has been a significant factor in the charges brought against him.French authorities can detain and interview the Telegram founder for up to 96 hours — and that deadline is coming up fast. After that, the court has to decide whether he will be formally indicted for some or all of the charges mentioned above. If the latter, the court will also make a decision on whether he has to stay in custody as a preventive measure. Given that Durov usually lives in Dubai, holds multiple passports and owns a private jet, they could decide there’s a substantial risk he’ll try to flee the country and decide to detain him while a case proceeds.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

Tax evasion is treated worse than murder in Europe

0

GreedyMacFear

8 months ago

Do you remember McAfee? He was not released at all. And it was all about some stupid tax evasion.

Candidates seated at ABC debate?

Amok

8 months ago

They should be seated on a couch.

1

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

They don't arrest criminals in France. It's a communist shithole

0

prbot

8 months ago

juicy odds - for sure he will will be released, he is not criminal after all

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

As if the pedophile sickos running the West cared about that

1

Remontada

8 months ago

“At the heart of the case is the absence of moderation and cooperation on the part of the platform,” Bernigaud said, “especially in the fight against child sex crimes.”

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

https://french-business-law.com/french-legislation-art/article-62-2-of-the-french-code-of-criminal-procedure/ has nothing to du with hot pursuit, but rather stopping a crime in progress, tampering with evidence.

2

Remontada

8 months ago

They didn't go to much effort. It was an adhoc arrest. Read tsybka's excellent explanation https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413

Pavel Durov released in August?

Amok

8 months ago

https://french-business-law.com/french-legislation-art/article-62-2-of-the-french-code-of-criminal-procedure/

0

Remontada

8 months ago

They didn't go to much effort. It was an adhoc arrest. Read tsybka's excellent explanation https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Amok

8 months ago

At the rate things are going for him, he won't be a millionaire for long.

0

CouchWhale

8 months ago

There are tens of thousands of millionaires in the world with a gambling addiction. It doesn't have to be some grand conspiracy.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

Amok

8 months ago

What's this P4 people are talking about?

0

0xB28d604F9434467c12DACEF78f10fB876745cf67-1724442052721

8 months ago

P4 looking good 👀

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

Amok

8 months ago

It's Clade 2

1

Jayhawk

8 months ago

Why doesn’t this resolve to Yes if you have a confirmed case in Wayne County?

100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

Amok

8 months ago

People really think there will be 100 Clade 1 cases in a month? Look Mom, they're selling dollars for 80 cents.

3

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

Amok

8 months ago

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/beyonce-not-attending-2024-dnc-1235982694/

8

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

Amok

9 months ago

Blinken can join his Hamas buddies if he doesn't accept it.

0

Justifax

9 months ago

"Blinken in a message to Netanyahu: "We will not accept a long-term occupation of Gaza. A deal must be reached within days"" https://x.com/N12News/status/1825991615497801858

How many times will Trump tweet by next Friday?

Amok

9 months ago

Not even a trade war. He only puts tariffs on countries that put tariffs on American products.

0

XiJinPing

9 months ago

i agree, he's not part of the war monger deep state. he also doesn't want to fight real war with china, only trade war is fine with me.

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

Amok

9 months ago

read the rules "If Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts between 11 (inclusive) and 15 (inclusive) times on X between August 12, 2024, 9:00 AM ET and August 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes".

2

fd.ark

9 months ago

I don't understand. Maybe this is a US thing, but how was this decided already? It's Friday, there's still 2 days left.

UK civil war in 2024?

Amok

9 months ago

Yes, except that civil war won't be declared.

0

Fred19999

9 months ago

What do you mean? You can buy at 3.5c and win tomorrow with a huge gain. Just depends when civil war is officially declared

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

Amok

9 months ago

Always keep an empty bottle next to the computer when betting

2

diddy

9 months ago

The worst thing about this is that I really wanna go to bathroom, but man....money is at risk here

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

Amok

9 months ago

Order book is too small for that

1

SenecaTheYounger

9 months ago

I have the sneakiest suspicion someone from Trump's team is insider trading here and gonna troll everyone by pushing it barely over the 15 mark, mark my words lmao

Israel military action against Iran in August?

Amok

9 months ago

How does this market resolve if there are covert ops like the recent assassination in Tehran which aren't claimed. It's a use of force, but no one can say for sure who did it, and it was likely done by local agents.

0

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

Amok

9 months ago

If he started being active on twitter again, he could bury Truth Social. His stock would be worthless.

1

UK civil war in 2024?

Amok

9 months ago

Inflation is like 10-15% annually. Even if you win this bet, you lose money

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

Amok

9 months ago

Elon sure has the stutters. Hard to listen to. Trump seems to have gotten milder.

1

Israel military action against Iran in August?

Amok

9 months ago

uh yeah, we want trump to win. but we also know he won't due to those 3am drops. have to say, it may be better to get the war over with now while sleepy joe is still in office, than when the cackling commie arrives.

1

retard2

9 months ago

if you think the elite want a middle east war while biden is in your nuts. jews dont want mr trump to win and israel starting a war will make that happen.

Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?

Amok

9 months ago

Only works if you're a democrat politician.

0

DeucePapi

9 months ago

I'll tell you one thing. If he doesn't lose his job for lying about military experience, I'm gonna check that box on every single form I fill out that asks if I served

Andrew Tate flee the EU?

Amok

9 months ago

Do you get those 750 back?

0

paizon

9 months ago

Nobody is willing to put up the fucking ridiculous $750 bond to resolve this. Polymarket should just resolve these low volume bets themselves. What a joke.

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Amok

9 months ago

This is polymarket. The Maduro bet was resolved as having lost the election, despite him still being president. Best to stay away from poorly worded bets.

3

Whome

9 months ago

That would be true if it said "appear." But it says "attend." https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/attend

2024 July hottest on record?

Amok

9 months ago

omg that profile picture of yours with the penguins is the m

0

KanyeTruther

9 months ago

i been saying this

Iran military response by Monday?

Amok

9 months ago

it'll be symbolic. Iran knows well that if they did a move that posed a real danger to Israel, Teheran would get nuked.

2

0x2c8029f2Bea882Ef928e22Ba6C394109A6Eda651-1722677145246

9 months ago

From a strategic standpoint I think it makes sense to wait to strike. Let complacency set in then make a move. That would be the wisest decision because any large scale attack will likely be stopped before it happens from Israeli or US air assets. Whatever their next move is it will need to be very calculated.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

We know that. It was priced into the market.

2

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

Keep your eye on the prize here. Maduro is scamming. Gonzalez actually won. People betting on Maduro are betting on the scam artist. But the scam appears to be really horrible, and can be easily disproven.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

US also recognized Guaidó as president last time. And we all know how that went.

0

Anon5215

9 months ago

The US recognizes opposition candidate González as the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election. It doesn't get more clear than this. You trust the US with the real numbers or a dictator with fake numbers. The market is called who is the presidential election winner, not who will rule by force. Big difference.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

Well it was. We all knew how it would go

0

PolyMucket

9 months ago

Question; Why would you drop 100K on this bet? Did you think it was a sure thing?

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

A man of culture

1

Gena🐊

9 months ago

Lol no, voting should be private and proportional to the land you own. Landless shouldn't even vote

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

They'll pull off one in November

0

xolob

9 months ago

I'm old enough to remember when USA could pull off a coup. RIP Pax America :(

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

Amok

9 months ago

Much like with US or French elections, what matters is who counts the votes

0

blackarepa1

9 months ago

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1817280566632251721 ELON MUSK SAY EDMUNDO GONNA WIN

Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?

Amok

9 months ago

This is confusingly worded. What does "establish control over any portion" of Lebanon mean? Occupy or annex?

1