peasant

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Imma frame this regardless of outcome. Love it

4

AiBets

2 months ago

yeesh I had assumed peasant had a pretty good understanding of the market and had some info unknown to the sharps, turns out its the opposite and he literally has zero clue what hes doing. Time to buy back into 150-155

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Its still close as assuming unreasonable 100% acceptance on remaining ballots you only get 155.6m but all the 99% states are still counting

2

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Im just confused because without realizing there are that many votes left to count, he must have thought everyone is smoking crack.

1

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

You uh, remembered there are provisionals right?

1

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

State SOS numbers

0

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Agreed, I think that caused a ton of confusion (and I had to check resolution criteria a couple times). Im also max risk here, but my methodology is looking at known uncounted votes and applying that criteria (as well as a curing discount). Last time I ran it, 153m counted with 2.63m estimated to be counted which means an unreasonable 23% of uncounted votes would either have no presidential vote or not pass ballot curing.

6

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

California found another 13k ballots between yesterday and today. Im sure its nothing huh

4

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

With all the quants in this market, make sure you adjust for - ballots vs votes - provisionals - write ins - chances of new vote discovery - 3rd party votes. Good luck out there

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Between California adding 100k to expected votes (not ballots!), write ins (state by state rules), provisionals, there are a lot of ways you could accidentally undercount. The official estimates are actually pretty good

1

Danilo3400

2 months ago

A number that probably almost no one has calculated in are the apparent 220k Outstanding Absentee & Provisional Ballots in Ohio https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Thank god 155-160 is inclusive of 155. At this point every vote matters

9

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Any idea what increased? Seems CA, NJ, and NY stayed the same (which is still a net undercount by UF EL)

0

Cincinnatus17

2 months ago

Ellection labs update 155.8

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

STOP THE COUNT

2

New.Jeans

2 months ago

New: Clark County discovered last night that more than 1,600 mail ballots were not tabulated, per a letter sent to the secretary of state. The county says the ballots did not change any results and were always under county control. The county is canvassing the final vote today.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Have faith in your analysis. Pls add liquidity

2

rabs

2 months ago

oh man i really messed up :(( i had an excel spreadsheet error

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Couple places, I can share sources when back at comp

0

peasant

2 months ago

Favorite market Ive ever been in. If you ignore uncounted ballots from half the states (I got bored in my analysis) its still easily above 155. Are people forgetting about Other?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Favorite market Ive ever been in. If you ignore uncounted ballots from half the states (I got bored in my analysis) its still easily above 155. Are people forgetting about Other?

3

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

I love this site

4

Justifax

2 months ago

Car, if you want to be taken seriously, you need to stop pumping BS without evidence. Simply posting vague opinions about what's happening without links and hard data is not just useless, its exactly what pumpers and car wannabes do..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Uh, arent you guys in the same bet

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Car, if you want to be taken seriously, you need to stop pumping BS without evidence. Simply posting vague opinions about what's happening without links and hard data is not just useless, its exactly what pumpers and car wannabes do..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Nah

1

Justifax

2 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Wash trading here brings the user literally no benefit

1

Justifax

2 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Wat

1

Justifax

2 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Praise be to rabs

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Rabs is god

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

UF election lab is now 155,391,700 (up from sub 155m) so I swapped sides

5

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Pretty sure theirs is a best faith estimate not a live count

0

peasant

2 months ago

Fair shout Mona. FYI 16.1 is below UF lab of 16.25 which is already below 155m

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Fair shout Mona. FYI 16.1 is below UF lab of 16.25 which is already below 155m

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

To clarify, it would be 16m all counted up

0

peasant

2 months ago

Latest CNN numbers for CA are 16m (77% counted)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Latest CNN numbers for CA are 16m (77% counted)

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Every state different. Some use postmark date, some use when received

0

Justifax

2 months ago

big, if true: new york had a stupid law in the year everyone was doing mail in to only count 10 days after the election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Bunch of places like that - check utah

0

Justifax

2 months ago

big, if true: new york had a stupid law in the year everyone was doing mail in to only count 10 days after the election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Last election was absurdly criticized for speed. A birdie tells me they sped it up this year

0

Justifax

2 months ago

If you extrapolate out by 5 days after the election using 2020 like someone did below for 2016, we get to 158M. Huh. Same thing as 2020. I wonder if there is a pattern here..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Hint: Check no liquidity

0

peasant

2 months ago

Much talk, much little 150-155 yes liquidity.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Much talk, much little 150-155 yes liquidity.

1

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election/will-there-be-150000000-155000000-votes-cast-in-the-us-presidential-election?tid=1731277701274

0

peasant

2 months ago

Free money for No. the actual debate is if it breaks 155m

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

And yes, here is the sauce so you can keep cooking: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/

0

peasant

2 months ago

Free money for No. the actual debate is if it breaks 155m

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Free money for No. the actual debate is if it breaks 155m

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Eligible voters only up by 4m

1

mona.lisa

2 months ago

It's basically a coin flip at this point. To be over 155, there would need to be 98%+ turnout of the 2020 election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

This is the most fantastic market, because both Reuters and UF Election lab would imply its just under 155, but its not priced like the coinflip it is.

1

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Yes

2

wzxrd

2 months ago

I voted yes am I rekt?

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

New York running 1m behind with 94% counted

2

sarya156

2 months ago

Just look at outstanding votes in state. texas has ~11% outstanding and has already passed 2020 numbers, theres a million more from one state alone this year

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Red up, blue down?

0

sarya156

2 months ago

Just look at outstanding votes in state. texas has ~11% outstanding and has already passed 2020 numbers, theres a million more from one state alone this year

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

Senpai, why is the counted vote total increasing slower now?

1

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

These spreads are BANANAS. Careful with market orders folks

2

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

peasant

2 months ago

There are more eligible voters this time so obviously there will be more votes. Right guis?

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

peasant

3 months ago

Guess “combat operations” is going to be doing a LOT of work here

1

abdendriel

3 months ago

"The latest strike on Yemen comes as Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

peasant

3 months ago

I was “no” on this but flipped yes. That seems pretty clear

1

abdendriel

3 months ago

According to the Telegraph, Israeli officials report this has already happened

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Hungrytoad - tough night but stay strong man

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

There’s always next time sir. Dont ropemax

0

Hungrytoad

4 months ago

So guys .. polymarket glitched on me , it said i was selling at full price , sold at 7.5 cents and basically lost all my money. Hungry toad is now starving toad and might ropemaxx if you know what I mean, so much for the insider accusations i was recieving. Hungry Toad Out.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

They 100% watched poly market and manipulated to get max vol

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

I didn’t hear it but I’m so over this so was half listening

0

Remontada

4 months ago

Can a someone tell me completely straight, did he not say "BY November x th"?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

They are definitely trading on here

0

RememberAmalek

4 months ago

he specifically addressed us bettors??? what the fuck???????

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

I legit think they are trading on here as they do this

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Wtf where is the announcement. If media wants to know more?

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

+1

1

Mountainman

4 months ago

I don't even want to argue with the "NO"'s anymore I just want them to shut the fuck up. Give me a date or I'm voting for KAMALA!!!!

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Down to a hair over 50k people on the podcast. Just let this end

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Yes and no UNITED in wanting this misery to end

9

·

Liked by 0x5cEC172b..., FluffyGold and 7 others

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Wen token

0

PokerBrat

4 months ago

Token?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

If they have something to announce, I’d rather they just did it. These interviewers are horrific

0

DonaldEnjoyer

4 months ago

"waaaaah this is boring say no coin so i make money"

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

This could not be more boring

6

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Real shame that all the trumps talked about 2017 blockchain and now are doublebooked with other interviews and gotta dip

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Brother he is bloviating about literally nothing

0

Mountainman

4 months ago

He is literally explaining why the project is important right now. haha

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

99% of livestream is poly market. This is so boring

0

Car

4 months ago

Lol

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

peasant

4 months ago

Lol trump definitely left the livestream. They been talking about him in 3rd person

1