#138
Rank
233
Comments
101
Likes Received
100
Likes Given
Elon Musk arrested in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
what does "arrested" mean, precisely?
0
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
I did :)
0
DFK
7 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will Biden finish his term?
DFK
6 months ago
it's not that far... Clearly he won't make it much longer before meeting his maker, but 3 months, I think he should be fine. Especially if Harris wins, he will want to make it to the inauguration. If Trump wins, well I seriously think that his chances of dying are much higher, he certainly won't be looking forward to that.
0
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
it's much more likely to conduct an ICBM test than a nuclear test.
2
DFK
6 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-may-launch-icbm-november-launcher-ready-south-korea-says-2024-10-30/
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-may-launch-icbm-november-launcher-ready-south-korea-says-2024-10-30/
0
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
Like there is even a remote chance south Korea sends troops to Ukraine.
0
CeroXu
6 months ago
What if they fought in Ukraine?
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
me too I'm about to do a nuclear drill in my backyard. Just letting you know so you can load up on yes.
0
ScienceDog
6 months ago
Russia said they gonna do nuclear weapons drills. all over X
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
Yep same.
1
DFK
6 months ago
got to love that the odds are exactly the same as just trump winning. Which are already fucking high.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
got to love that the odds are exactly the same as just trump winning. Which are already fucking high.
7
Macron impeached in 2024?
DFK
6 months ago
well look at my positions and you will see where. I don't do uncertain markets.
0
nicoco89
7 months ago
the impeachment procedure was just rejected by the national assembly. it is now impossible for macron to be impeached this year
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
DFK
6 months ago
Roger that. Taking it from here.
0
bobrovn1kov
6 months ago
Good NO ride from 67c to 96c. I am out. Follow my telegram shtanga0x
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
I want a "will Trump win and end climate change" market.
15
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
6 months ago
you wake up one day and nothing changed, but everything is changed. North Korea could invade anytime now. A nuke could go off. Joe could pardon Hunter. There is a little something in the air.
2
Winning candidate also wins popular vote?
DFK
6 months ago
Domer creating his own arbitrage market
3
Colorado Presidential Election Winner
DFK
6 months ago
@whyUmadbro it's "an inexperienced"
1
AOP
7 months ago
If Denver didnt exist this state would be deep red
Iran strike on US military before November?
DFK
6 months ago
Not only for a strike to happen would Israel need to retaliate within the allotted timeframe, but also Iran would never strike back the US military. It is not in their interest to strengthen US support, and that would most certainly do it. So basically, free money, but the fun part is that if Israel strikes back, then Yes will shoot up and I am hoping for that to happen so I can buy NO cheaper :)
0
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
@kekkonen even with the shitty rules, the price is too good to pass. It is almost the same as the odds of Trump winning, which are already crazy high. This war isn't ending in 6 months.
1
DFK
6 months ago
Lol like he can do that. Oh Lord I love PM. Mark my words I'm buying now at 73c and will keep buying anything lower with all I got.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
A troll. Or the dumbest person on the planet. Hard to tell.
2
kekkone
7 months ago
Trump has plenty of leverage over Zelensky but hardly any over Putin. He could always coerce Ukraine to surrender on Russian terms though.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
Although the rules are kind of dumb. It's says Trump ending war in the title but has absolutely no requirements of a Trump involvement in the "ending", and also accepts a temporary ceasefire as a resolution... Lol. Title could hardly be further from the rules.
4
DFK
6 months ago
Lol like he can do that. Oh Lord I love PM. Mark my words I'm buying now at 73c and will keep buying anything lower with all I got.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
Lol what kind of leverage? He could offer him some McDonald's fries that's about it.
0
kekkone
7 months ago
Trump has plenty of leverage over Zelensky but hardly any over Putin. He could always coerce Ukraine to surrender on Russian terms though.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
DFK
6 months ago
Lol like he can do that. Oh Lord I love PM. Mark my words I'm buying now at 73c and will keep buying anything lower with all I got.
1
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
6 months ago
People who have morals respect their det of values, and do not transgress them whenever convenient or for their own interest. In this case, pardoning his own child instead of respecting the decision of the institutions he believes in.
0
Piece
7 months ago
Well, I am all for ‘yes’. All comments are for ‘yes’ except some superficial ones. All analysts are for ‘yes’. Human nature is for ‘yes’. But, what confuses me is: why are people betting on more than 70% No? This is the inly market that has a nonsense betting odds!
Colorado Presidential Election Winner
DFK
7 months ago
if only educated people didn't exist...
1
AOP
7 months ago
If Denver didnt exist this state would be deep red
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
it is now !
0
midyeci
7 months ago
I think the market is not pricing in this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/18/north-korean-troops-russia-arrived-ukraine-seoul?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
of course always whales. That's rule #1. You are right, and when you're not it's because the market is being manipulated by evil powerful forces.
2
Noureddine
7 months ago
The odds are 50%, I don’t see why should people buy a Yes, it’s a hell No
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
Remind me to never piss off Israel. FFS now they are killing leaders before they even get appointed. I wonder who is still applying for the job.
2
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
"any human with morals put their family first". well, there you go, you got no morals. Crash course: what you are advocating for is selfishness and individualism over core values. Morals are exactly the opposite.
0
Piece
7 months ago
Well, I am all for ‘yes’. All comments are for ‘yes’ except some superficial ones. All analysts are for ‘yes’. Human nature is for ‘yes’. But, what confuses me is: why are people betting on more than 70% No? This is the inly market that has a nonsense betting odds!
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
DFK
7 months ago
And not only would the timing be bad rn, but also it is way better to purchase the next bracket at 16-20. There is no way we get more than 5 storms from now till December and odds are much better on the next bracket.
1
raspberry17
7 months ago
After Nadine and Oscar (15 total I believe), and with 40 days to go, NO lessthan16 seems like the smartest bet on polymarket right now
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
anybody who listened to me then: now is a decent time to make a first entry! 9c cheaper and 1 month less.
0
DFK
7 months ago
I'm new here, so Hello. Here is my take. Not going to happen (obviously), but 79c 4 months away is probably not the best we can get. I think this kind of market gets juicy towards the end of Biden's term, when the cray-cray think it will happen. So: safe now, but I'd bet on a better entry point when some news hits, about Hunter's sentencing or about Biden's sanity.
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
you only forgot morals. Wouldn't you be a Trump supporter by any chance?
0
Piece
7 months ago
Well, I am all for ‘yes’. All comments are for ‘yes’ except some superficial ones. All analysts are for ‘yes’. Human nature is for ‘yes’. But, what confuses me is: why are people betting on more than 70% No? This is the inly market that has a nonsense betting odds!
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
honestly there isn't much left to do for them in Gaza. They have been toppling Hamas leadership one after the other like bowling balls, they displaced 90% of the population and are asking the reminder to GTFU, I mean one can disagree with the goal or the method, but you got to give them one thing, they are not messing around. I feel confident that between now and the end of the year they will at least start talking about a slowdown of ops or something that will significantly tilt this market toward yes, if not resolve. At 16c Yes is a good deal.
0
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
DFK
7 months ago
lol you got to be trolling.
0
illegal
7 months ago
im living in Iran and can make you sure it wont happen. atleast in October iran wont launch any other attacks.
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
DFK
7 months ago
not true they can respond very quickly. Just watch how fast their response to Lebanon happened.
0
illegal
7 months ago
Free money voting for No, even if Israel attacks Iran it take time for Iran to respond
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
come on Bibi I'd like to move on with this bet.
1
Macron impeached in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
yes. But it's not a very good return. There are more profitable markets.
0
nicoco89
7 months ago
the impeachment procedure was just rejected by the national assembly. it is now impossible for macron to be impeached this year
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
Thanks for your opinion. I disagree but it's interesting nonetheless. I think Russia or Israel chances are 0% in the current situation and that it makes no sense to make up probabilities over decade (so arbitrary, both the probs and the chosen timeframe!)Russia will never use a nuke unless it is actually threatened in full war with NATO (not happening this year no matter what). Israel is also not nuking anybody, they would lose immediate support from absolutely everybody and can't afford that. Only cray-cray Kim could do it, as a test. And when he was testing, the world was different. It's not because he did one test every 3 year in the 2010s that he has any reason to do one now. He has many other things on his mind currently. But it's not impossible. If I had to give it a prob, I'd say maybe 2 or 3% chances at any given 12-month time frame.
0
DFK
7 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
that's a little bit of an exaggeration. The only market that was resolved in a debatable way was the September invasion market. But it was, indeed, debatable, as it was based on events at the very last hours of the market, and on wording that was subject to interpretation. I would call it bad judgment (I disagree with the outcome) but I wouldn't call it rigged. All other war markets resolved properly.
2
CEXREX
7 months ago
staying away from these war bets after getting rigged in the previous lebanon invasion and military entering predictions
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
0
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm amazed at people holding No on such markets, where it could all be vaporized into thin air in a second at any moment. True gamblers.
3
Nancy-Pelosi
7 months ago
tick tock
Israel military response against Iran in October?
DFK
7 months ago
they gain no advantage by delaying. You can't reply 3 months later and say it is justified. A reply comes immediately (or close to) or doesn't come, otherwise it makes you the aggressor. But they do gain something by delaying past the US elections, and this manned THAAD system looks like a decent bribe to me, probably part of a larger package.
1
FreemanR
7 months ago
Israel will draw out the strike for as long as possible.. given that they did not immediately reply, they now gain every advantage by delaying until at least the U.S election so plans can be solidified...
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
DFK
7 months ago
OMG so much laughing. Every reply better than the previous one.
0
cl0wn51
7 months ago
i am pray from Allah to demolish all europe
Israel military response against Iran in October?
DFK
7 months ago
overreaction.
0
# of named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
DFK
7 months ago
storms are named alphabetically. Milton is #13. If we reach Oscar (#15), we'll have over 14.
0
MeNoDatNutReelMuni
7 months ago
Any new ones? I don't understand how to read these lists
Will Biden finish his term?
DFK
7 months ago
says the guy with 20 bucks on the line. Even if you were homeless you could put more if you truly believed what you say. I say the man can drop dead any second. I think if this thing gets in the single digits, NO probably would be a good position to hold and wait for a possible health scare.
2
Anon7421
7 months ago
Easiest money come on
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
DFK
7 months ago
it is higher but not enough to invalidate their strategy of cutting rates.
0
RBanister
7 months ago
Why is higher inflation (MoM/YoY net and vs expectations) indicative of a 25bps cut?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I'd bet he is 90% bot trading. I mean with this volume...
2
DFK
7 months ago
JustKen doesn't give 2 fucks about the title or the rules of the markets: he buys the cheapest odds.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
JustKen doesn't give 2 fucks about the title or the rules of the markets: he buys the cheapest odds.
2
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
DFK
7 months ago
CPI came out clear, 25bps is basically acted.
1
Israel military response against Iran in October?
DFK
7 months ago
so: they made it clear that they have no fucking clue, basically.
0
dimmas
7 months ago
U.S. officials say Israel has made it clear that it is not ruling out a response during the Yom Kippur holiday this week. https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
haha oh no! I'll admit it was hard to go to sleep
0
XiJinPing
7 months ago
speed literaly printing money in his sleep, respect
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
so were all the No bettors :)
0
XiJinPing
7 months ago
speed literaly printing money in his sleep, respect
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
lol you have no idea what you're talking about, do you
0
MLS
7 months ago
How you traded over $300k and only made $4k
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
waking up fresh after 15 hours of backflipping lol
2
SwaggyRach
7 months ago
he did first 300 in 2hrs 30 min if he wakes up fresh and cross 850 early he will be motivated enough to complete it so its all about getting to 850 with like 2 hrs left in his hand Decent gamble for a 10x imo
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
he exited quietly. Sharp contrast with the noise he makes when he is pumping. Being car looks exhausting.
2
lilnicolas
7 months ago
Hey Car, what is exactly your plan rn?
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
it seems he sold it all
0
lilnicolas
7 months ago
Hey Car, what is exactly your plan rn?
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
I love PM. the diversity of the markets is a lot of fun
1
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
says with 10 cents on the line...
0
TheTank
7 months ago
bud at this point vote yes the glaze is wild
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
car going all or nothing hoping to find enough suckers when speed wakes up. Living dangerously.
3
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
I was sleeping for the past 5h. It's locked. Go sleep.
0
JakeAirdropFarm
7 months ago
i need to go to sleep. do i sell and lock in my gains, or risk $1,200 for another $200?
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
he's gonna wake up so refreshed. At 19 recovery is lightning fast.
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
wondering what's happening in the bathroom exactly. I request a urine test.
1
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
I so want to see that first backflip :)
1
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
we should bet on whether he will be able to simply resume backflipng
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
I think if he can get the 800 in 5 hours he is good.
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
you got 16 hours to correct that.
0
lilnicolas
7 months ago
My only regret is I did not buy more
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
what a joke this guy is. googling what to do for muscle pain. what an athlete.
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
I watched for 2 min and now I feel so much dumber than before. And this dude has 32mil followers. Planet of the apes.
0
Car
7 months ago
no YOU are a joke.
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
DFK
7 months ago
lol dude answering comments and showing his abs and just chilling... if that was any challenging to achieve, he would be monitoring his heart rate, keeping focused, meditating and resting. I mean this is a joke.
0
Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?
DFK
7 months ago
agreed. But don't let that affect you. Yes we are in a place where people do dumb shit, but without them I wouldn't be making any money! Free money is nice no matter where it comes from.
1
Rafin
7 months ago
The 2% on D Presidency R Popular Vote is hilarious. I wonder what Qanon bull those holders are eating.
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
DFK
7 months ago
they can, but I very much doubt they will. You don't go from cutting 50 to cutting nothing without sending a strong signal that the rudder is loose.
2
yellowflash
7 months ago
they don’t need b2b cuts to ease. can do nothing in nov (trump wins and he holds off, powell wants his job again) and go 25 in dec
Milton landfall at what category?
DFK
7 months ago
thinking the same. It's still far away. I'll buy those odds.
0
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
7 months ago
Overhyped storm
Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?
DFK
7 months ago
some people don't play the outcome.
2
Rafin
7 months ago
The 2% on D Presidency R Popular Vote is hilarious. I wonder what Qanon bull those holders are eating.
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
DFK
7 months ago
No change would be such a dramatic disavow of their last decrease that it would be interpreted as panic. Ain't no way it's no change.
1
Tunisia Presidential Election Winner
DFK
7 months ago
He officially won, results are finalized. PM please resolve and close
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
Things that Cullen says: 1- Satoshi is not someone people expected. 2- he goes after the main suspects in the documentary 3- He confronts his main Satoshi suspect. Meaning: it is not the usual suspects, the main suspect is alive, and he has no definitive proof.
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
what is funny is that Adam back is leading the odds when he said he is not and Cullen said he is not.
0
makszed
7 months ago
People are funny. They assume if someone appears in a trailer, they're the creators, but that's not how trailers work. You don't know the real truth—Len is definitely winning.
Israel military response against Iran in October?
DFK
7 months ago
dav1 I get it, but buying the wrong side on a market that can end any second is a crazy risk. Scalping on cheap shares is all good and fun on market with a fixed ending date. It's suicidal otherwise.
0
Car
7 months ago
crazy odds
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
?
0
ensemble0112358
7 months ago
Why bet against yourself?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
you joined less than a month ago, trying to sound like a vet. That's the problem here, people say whatever with conviction. You little lier.
0
Phoenix777
7 months ago
Seen this happening before many times...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
have you?
0
Phoenix777
7 months ago
Seen this happening before many times...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
can you stop screaming
0
dancer
7 months ago
NEVER FORGET THE WISE ADVICE OF RELAY - "if you Yestards were smart, you'd sell your shares to Chad!" RELAY IS RIGHT, HE IS ALWAYS RIGHT
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
yes I think they do. A whale can sway things indeed, but a whale is statistically just another individual, and if out of 100 votes 90 were yes, it means that whales are also 90% likely to be Y. Of course not guaranteed, but at this point smart money is on No without a doubt. Based purely on voting interpretation.
0
mona.lisa
7 months ago
That would only be the case if UMA reveals votes in a representative fashion. But doesn't UMA reveal it by addresses, meaning huge whales sway things?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I know. I explained that. Even if it is not, it means playing roulette, hoping that one guy will vote differently than all the others. Possible, but it's roulette.
0
DT24
7 months ago
it's not evenly distributed!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
people asking if Yes still stands a chance: statistically in an evenly distributed voting right system, the answer would be no. Here Yes hangs on to the possibility (remote?) that a few heavyweight would vote against consensus. What we already have in hands is an idea of the consensus, statistically significant (imagine early results coming like that in the presidential election for example: the outcome would be crystal clear).
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
well it's the same thing as elections. Early results tell you a lot. Unless of course reveal is "organized". Which I don't think it is, despite all the noise. So it tells us 90% of UMA voters think it's No. Even if voting rights are unevenly distributed, it tells us about consensus, meaning it's not looking good for yes. Mathematically if voting rights were evenly distributed it would be statistically almost over for Yes, but if the whale stories are true, I guess Yes still stands a chance, but it is a shot in the dark (hanging on the remote decision of a few influent people against consensus). There you go.
0
mona.lisa
7 months ago
Only 9.4% of the votes are even revealed, who cares about the score.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
You sure you're not General Custer?
0
General.William.T.Sherman
7 months ago
Time to jump on yes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
can't be disputed by users. But PM could overthrow the decision (very rare). This is what I've been told, I'm just repeating it.
0
mona.lisa
7 months ago
can somebody pls confirm: can this be disputed again?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
so basically, what everybody seems to agree upon, is that it can be 90% going one way, and boom just like that it could reverse because 1 or 2 people have more voting rights than everybody else put together? Am I getting this right?
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Imagine the other voters collectively decide to wait 23 more hours.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I held Yes but I'm not the kind of wallet to die for my ideas.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
everytime I hear that I am shocked that it may be true. If that's right, why is PM using this system? How could it possibly be a good idea?
2
Secret14thKey
7 months ago
for the newbies here: literally none of the votes so far matter, this entire thing is decided by literally 2 people who work for UMA
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
if I were Chad I would start unloading right the fuck now.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
you;'ll notice he hasn't sold though
0
Phoenix777
7 months ago
Bullshit
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
holy shit this is going to be tight
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
man I was on yes side but this doesn't look good at all.
0
Donkov
7 months ago
Trust the plan. Superdelegates will save the day
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
ouch. Not many votes in but overwhelmingly NO .... doesn't look good for Yes :/
0
Israel military response against Iran in October?
DFK
7 months ago
lol every time I see you you are on the wrong side
6
Car
7 months ago
crazy odds
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
https://x.com/adam3us/status/1842655911233650878?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1842655911233650878%7Ctwgr%5E8e21109cd41c8d76e847fb2979701257105113dd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fu.today%2Fno-one-knows-who-satoshi-is-adam-back-ends-hbo-hype
0
INK
7 months ago
where does he say it's wrong?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
@goingsocial you do realize that this market is about the documentary, and not necessarily the truth? UMA is just here to confirm that the outcome matches what the documentary says. I hope this helps you understand better !
0
cairokid
7 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven/will-satoshi-nakamotos-identity-be-proven-in-q4-2024?tid=1728188940943
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
what would that be (the evidence)?
0
addicts
7 months ago
The only one here which there is definitive evidence against is Hal Finney (I think)
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
Adam Back says he is not, but also that the documentary will be wrong. Maybe he knows the documentary says it's him 😁
0
Netanyahu out by October 31?
DFK
7 months ago
Bibi just lead the most successful elimination operation of modern warfare. He is going nowhere.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
someone is getting nervous
0
Ferguson,Turd
7 months ago
Congratulations NO holders in advance for your huge wins!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
you can afford to lose $120k apparently. Good for you.
0
Ferguson,Turd
7 months ago
This is out of control. 65% that UMA will go against their correct first vote? What a time to be alive
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
@IsabelleBeaumont I feel kind of sad for therealbatman. It's mixed feelings of course, because anyone who can afford to lose 3m betting is already not a good person.
1
mango-lassi
7 months ago
I wish everyone wins except mountainman
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I don't need his opinion. Just a word, any word, and I'll follow him to the end of the earth. Even an emoji will do.
1
Mr. House
7 months ago
The legend himself (chad) in all this never said a word, what a mad man
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
apparently he can. Who loses 3m in 6 months betting, and keeps going at it cheerfully? I need that kind of friends.
1
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
therealbatman doubled down to 140k, how nice of him to pay Chad's bills. https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c
Macron impeached in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
Come on. Give me better odds than that.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
bro do yourself a favor and don't gamble here. I got a feeling you're not gonna do well.
0
sol44
7 months ago
today we have october , so we know that izrael did not invade to lebanon in september, so how come is possible still betting on NO option and grab free money ?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Chad is a fuckng hero. Just wow.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I can almost hear the accent.
1
sol44
7 months ago
today we have october , so we know that izrael did not invade to lebanon in september, so how come is possible still betting on NO option and grab free money ?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
it's over.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Quae Sunt Caesaris, Caesari.
1
DopeFrancis
7 months ago
Render ergo Caesaribus quae Caesaris sunt
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
those are the ones with a functioning brain. Who wouldn;'t buy a bet on an event that already happened?
0
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
So much looking forward seeing the YES betters that bought after Oct first complaining how rigged the site and the system is and how unfair the world is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
they commenced the military operation on the 1st. Yes it only developed later on, but it wasn't a surprise development. It was phase 2 of the military operation intended to control the area. I mean logic here is 100% on the side of Yes. The only doubt there is is are UMA people logic. I mean Trump is dumb as a rock and was and possibly will be POTUS. So anything is possible and my confidence in UMA resolving this correctly isn't very strong.
0
mr.ozi
7 months ago
Because in September we had only in-and-out raids, and proper troops invaded only on Oct 2. That's why. As per information from the IDF, the United Nations, the United States, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
@rozi actually it does. The market is about intention, and in the quote you used it says "intended to precede a broader ground invasion". It precisely establishes the commencement of the intention of control.
0
McLarry
7 months ago
On 1 October 2024, Israel began an invasion of southern Lebanon in an escalation of the ongoing Israel–Hezbollah conflict, a result of the spillover of the Israel–Hamas war. It followed a series of major attacks on Hezbollah in September that degraded its capabilities[31][32] and devastated its leadership;[33][34] beginning with the explosions of its communication devices,[35][36] followed by an Israeli aerial bombing campaign targeting Hezbollah throughout Lebanon,[37] and culminating in the 27 September assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.[38][39]
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Hey data analyst, do you realize that this is not a meaningful metric? (it would be if all had the same size wallet, which unfortunately for most isn't the case)
0
mr.ozi
7 months ago
Median P&L Top Yes holders: +$19k. Median P&L Top No holders: +$87k. Sincerely, your data analyst.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
geeze. Chill bro
0
dancer
7 months ago
HEDGING if the INNUMERATE DUMBFUCK WILLOU loses his money, I need the INNUMERATE CRETINOUS FRENCHIE to LOSE ANOTHER $10,000 MISCOUNTING DRAWS at the WORLD CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
my favorite part is "innumerate".
0
dancer
7 months ago
the DROOLING FRENCH RETARD WILLOU is so used to brainwashing little children with his MORONIC INNUMERACIES, that he thinks he can win an UMA vote by merely spouting dumb shit about how right he is! SORRY FRENCHIE, you can BULLY LITTLE KIDS, but you will never be able to bully UMA! GO CRY INTO A CROISSANT you INNUMERATE WILLOU, you LOST $10,000 MISCOUNTING DRAWS! DO IT AGAIN, FRENCHIE! LOSE MORE MONEY AGAIN
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
$14.7k we don't lose shares. We lose money. Counting in shares makes no sense and induces a false sense of proportion.
0
TheGoober
7 months ago
Seeing car lose 24k would be euphoric
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I feel like going back in. Slowly dipping my toes...I've always had a weakness for logic.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
top no holder has 3M in losses 😳😳
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
https://vote.uma.xyz, select the right market then click on "result"
1
ya3ein
7 months ago
where do you see the voting activity ?
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
10 days ago I suggested to wait for No, now at 74c I'm starting to build a position. That's a 10% increase in return if you waited with me
0
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
DFK
7 months ago
cool thanks
0
Rueben
7 months ago
it does not autocredit the negrisk like pi. However, you can convert no shares and it will give you YES shares in all the other brackets, which you can then limit sell (which is effectively bidding for buy No''s)
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
in 14hours, when the time to reveal votes ends. https://vote.uma.xyz
0
Tellyone
7 months ago
When will the final decision be made?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm the kind of person who needs to understand. And I still don't understand this: why did anybody vote NO when it already happened? Why do those NO holders don't sell when they see they lost? Why do they still don't sell now? I mean 1c is infinitely better than no cent. What am I missing?
10
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
@aaron28a did I insult anybody? I said what I think about what he did. And I do think that betting against an event happening when it already happened is very stupid and doesn't reflect well on the bettor. I also think that his contribution to the discussion was entirely useless. And if 55k shares are nothing to him, good for him!
0
DFK
7 months ago
how do you exchange shares at a price different than market price with someone specific? That's what you just did with Donkov, right? How do you do that?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
when the votes are 100% in I assume. They have 24h from the end of the countdown.
0
pooky
7 months ago
When does the market get closed?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Chad has balls. I'll give him that. Or he is so wealthy he doesn't give 2 fucks about money. Who knows.
0
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
Like a chad with diamond hands: chad bought 10,200 Yes at 44.3¢ ($4,518) 21m ago chad bought 20,583 Yes at 43.2¢ ($8,886) 25m ago
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I got to say I just love your profile. Especially when you post in Latin 😂😂
1
DopeFrancis
7 months ago
🔥🔥🔥
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
good luck 🤑
0
harvastum
7 months ago
It may not look like much, but I'm all in.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
this market is seriously a roller coaster. I'm so glad I'm on the sidelines. My health first.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
how do you exchange shares at a price different than market price with someone specific? That's what you just did with Donkov, right? How do you do that?
0
PolyPollUser
7 months ago
Will domer rant over or under 800 words?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
so you went Yes on September market, and No here? what I would give to understand how you reason.
1
Donkov
7 months ago
Over. Fill me at 85C 2k shares?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
based on his contribution to the UMA discussion, I'd say he is pretty laconic. "I have still not seen an invading force" did he deign enlighten us in his rock solid 3 lines argumentation.
3
PolyPollUser
7 months ago
Will domer rant over or under 800 words?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
yea Cedarville I see that now, but it's 0,16%
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
OK Imperator laugh all you want. I don't know what WILL happen, I don't pretend to have this ability, but I do know what DID happen, and you are on the wrong side of the fence without a doubt.
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
But nobody voted NO so far (obviously). What I don't understand is why people are holding NO shares. That just blows my mind. Why would anyone hold NO shares. What am I missing.
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
although it's still way too early to tell, because it's only at 2% of the votes revealed.
0
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
votes are coming in. Looks like a solid Yes.
3
EdgyUsername
7 months ago
I'm stil newer to this process, what's the vote count?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
what I want to know is who is this guy. He woke up to a loss of $200k and didn't blink. In fact he immediately bought 400k shares in November. I want to meet that dude.
0
McLarry
7 months ago
Chad thinks he's going to make big bucks because he's betting on an event that has de facto happened. What a naive guy, he's here on an anonymous crypto scam site
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
DFK
7 months ago
every time I see you somewhere you're on the wrong side of the market. Got to wonder how you made your mils.
2
🤺JustPunched
8 months ago
I ain't afraid of no NOAA, bring them on
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
we are many - if not all - in the same boat: we know it is a Yes, but we are scaaaared. I don't know how long you have been on PM, but I am not risking my hard earned money to be scammed by a couple crypto bros, which apparently seems to be the way markets are decided here. Take it with a grain of salt, but I've seen a lot of people saying that markets are decided by 2 (sometimes even 1) people, and that those people actually bet here. Until I know better, I am not trusting the high profile disputes, and I am checking carefully who is on the other side of my bet. Good luck to you.
0
denizz
7 months ago
I've been a skeptic of "yes", but I now believe that this market should resolve to "yes”, at least eventually. The main point of contention is whether the Israeli operation intends to control territory in Lebanon. Israeli officials told CNN on September 30 (EST) that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This certainly suggests that they intend short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Today, the Israeli state broadcaster Kan reported that the IDF was “starting to gain operational control over the Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon where the forces of the 98th and 36th Divisions are operating.” Kan reports directly from the Israeli security apparatus and this would have been approved by the military censor. (https://x.com/ItayBlumental/status/1842189744832184378) The notion that Israel does not seek control over areas in Lebanon is becoming increasingly hard to sustain. As for the notion that operational control was not already planned on September 30: First, this is belied by the CNN report. Second, there has been no change of grand strategy in the last 4 days, in particular no cabinet meeting at which a change of plans was approved. Thus, the fact that operational control is being established now strongly suggests that this was planned on September 30 when the offensive commenced, as CNN reported.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
waiting for yes to go back to 5 cents to buy it like last night. That was crazy.
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
it's extremely undervalued. If nobody is really identified, it wins. If anybody other is identified, it wins. If multiple people are identified, it may win.
0
trav
7 months ago
Multiple is the safest bet imo.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
nobody said occupying. Is says control. Controlling an area. Like in sport. Control of the ball. Control of the field. It is fluid. It changes. Now with the amount of IDF forces currently in Lebanon, control of "any part of Lebanon" is de facto established. Plus, they do not need to HAVE control but to SEEK control, per the rules. The size of the operation is huge and demonstrate a will to control the area. After if you want to play dumb go ahead.
2
Amok
7 months ago
Hunting terrorists isn't the same as occupying.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
if you are convinced they will favor their people, maybe side with them?
1
jayminho
7 months ago
pay very much attention to what is going on right now at the : https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1728050229079 , because that VERY LIKELY will happen here. all those dubious/ambiguous polls , one thing is certain, you are doomed, UMA will take forever to decided, and extremely likely, will decide in favor of their own people (we know them...) anyway. good luck.
Tunisia Presidential Election Winner
DFK
7 months ago
Bro have you seen the other markets? Will Trump be Speaker? Will Biden be impeached? This market is more legit than a good chunk of PM's markets
1
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
silly to make markets on unfree elections
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
the discrepancy between reality and odds is a testament to the lack of confidence in UMA voting. For a place supposedly dedicated to truth, it's sad.
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
DFK
7 months ago
another market set for a tragic dispute ! PM please change the rules before it's too late: "presented as equally likely" or "presented as most likely" is subjective... If more than one person is identified as the creator, it should resolve to multiple people. Period. Clear cut rules for God's sake. Why do you set yourself up for failure???
7
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
If we were on a regulated platform I'd buy $20k worth of Yes confidently. But after what I've seen and heard, I'm playing it safe. How it resolves will dramatically shape my confidence in PM.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
aenew joined the fight with 10k, that's a big thing :)
0
jayminho
7 months ago
NOs are selling, YESs are remaining.. lol. GO @CHAD!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
1- they are so not doing raids 2- you seem to decide unilaterally what "establishing control" means 3- you forget the part about "ANY PART" of Lebanon. Israeli currently have control of a part of Lebanon, at least that's what the whole world is reporting, I did not witness it with my eyes but neither did you. Let me rephrase that so you can understand (see, I can be condescending too): would you say that currently IDF has control over NO PART of Lebanon?
2
MisTKy
7 months ago
I will try to explain for people so they understand....the Isrealis are doing raids, they are doing this to clear the way for armored vehicles and troops so they can "establish control". So you need to wait a little, about the holidays that's a funny and sad argument. You do realize we talk about war ? And about the September market... it s complicated, the argument for YES on that ,market would be that even if they are doing only raids, they are still part of the bigger military campaign (but then also airstrikes would be )
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
where else can you make a guaranteed 160%+ APY with no limit. God bless Polymarket.
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
too early does not mean no. You are talking about logic and then making a statement that goes against it.
1
mr.ozi
7 months ago
Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
are you for real? I mean I see that you made really good profit in a very short time. That indicates 2 things: 1/ you are new and 2/ you are a gambler. So I don't know if you can be taken seriously. You are saying literally that UMA will vote against the media consensus. (BBC for example, among many many others, states very clearly that an invasion began in the night of Monday on their website). So you are literally saying that UMA doesn't give 2 fucks about truth. I find that hard to believe. On top of that, I have seen them voting "too early" on things like "will Trump be Speaker before October 1st", and there is no doubt they won't vote Yes on that. Too early does not mean no. I find your little marketing campaign for the "no" suspicious.
0
mr.ozi
7 months ago
It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm out for now, too risky. Invasion is acted, but timing is a really close call considering this market deadline.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
A: sept not resolved. B: timing.
0
Donkov
7 months ago
Lets hope, but whales are looking to resolve Sept as a NO. How can Sept be a NO, but Nov YES?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Universe says that for the first time he had a favorable impression of Israeli military. Now he feels ashamed. He hopes for peace in middle east. And he doesn't give a shit about you not reading Chinese.
3
niverse
7 months ago
我第一次对以色列军队抱有好感。惭愧。希望中东和平。
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
The November market reflects the certainty of the invasion. The September market is a little puzzling indeed, but it seems that there are doubts about what time it actually began, and if some military actions took place in September, it seems that maybe they did not cross the border with tanks and troops at that time. At least that is my logical understanding, assuming we are not talking about market manipulation and all. The only legit question is about timing, and whether IDF's actions in September already checked the rules boxes for invasion.
0
sleepyjoesleeper
7 months ago
The spread between this market and the November market is completely out of line. Fact: Israel entered Lebanon before Oct. Unclear: Intent to occupy any part of territory. The only way the November market can resolve Yes and this market resolves No is if it can be shown that their intent has changed, or Israel exit and reenter with new intentions, both of which are a stretch
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
top holder sitting on a $200k unrealized loss right now. Ouch.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I don't. I hope you ain't right, but I'm gonna bet on you being a little cray-cray on that one. Sorry.
2
Mountainman
7 months ago
What the IDF says doesn't matter, Don't you know that JustKen and UMA get to decide what reality is?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
same boat
1
Anti-ScamLawyer
7 months ago
So I just now bought these 2.7k shares it’s clear to me it was an invasion per the rules. I understand the controversy but I’m going to assume that this is going to resolve correctly despite was so,e of the naysayers and other people are saying about the possibly biased voting mechanism (which I do not understand. I’m new to this site). Seems like the controversy was cleared up officially now. For me it is a good test to see if Polymarket rules resolutions can be trusted to stay true to English and logic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
man at that price I'm gonna get myself a few Y. Looking forward to PM arguing against the official IDF timeline.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I doubt they can go against reality with impunity, nor that it is their intention. That would be the death of PM. The invasion is clearly constituted by now, it's not an easy case to say it commenced on a different schedule than the one officially announced by the IDF. We'll see.
1
Mountainman
7 months ago
Reality doesn't matter. This is a clear YES but UMA will decide NO like they always do when they are heavily invested on that side. Just watch.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
you're hilarious. Trying to sound all serious while making up shit as you go.
0
FamilyCapital
7 months ago
control mean more than just occupation, they even did not occupied. Invasion is less than occupation, occupation is less than control. You have first to occupy, holding for a while with intention for control or not.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Here are the main reasons I see: 1-some people hedge their September market position. Those are the smart ones. 2- Some people misunderstand the rules. Either they think it is not an invasion because in their own heads, an invasion looks different, or they think that the "establish control" part means that Israel would have to like announce an official annexation or something similar. Those are the one with poor comprehension skills. 3- Some people think it simply did not happen, the media is lying to us. Those are the delusional people. 2 and 3 can be frustrating to deal with, but we need them for their kind donations. Bless their hearts.
6
mr.ozi
7 months ago
Why would anyone buy No in this market? Because Israel doesn't want to establish control - is that the argument? They are already controlling areas near Maroun Al Ras el for example. Just curious 🤔🙂
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
where do you see that he argued in favor of this market in UMA? I don't.
0
mr.ozi
7 months ago
He actually argued in favor of this market resolving to a Yes in the UMA dispute, although he holds 54k No shares. I doubt you would have a fraction of that integrity.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
don't worry man. It will be a Yes. Just let the dogs bark and be patient. There is no point in trying to explain things here.
0
McLarry
7 months ago
And it's the same scam every time: buy the cheaper side and come up with dubious and convoluted arguments to support your point of view. It doesn't have to work often, if his UMA buddies only wave him through every fourth time, that's enough to print money.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm sad to see you caved. I hope it was for a good reason and not panic.
0
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
Yeah, I’m kinda new around here. I’m pretty disappointed in a few of these markets. The ambiguity and arguing really takes the enjoyment out of this and I am not sure I trust this community to be honest. Had enough of this market. Kept buying back in but it’s not worth it IMO.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
who do you think controls the area where thousands of Israeli soldiers are parked in Lebanon? Control does not have to be permanent.
1
Kali
7 months ago
Israel literally claimed it was gonna enter Lebanon for specific purposes but not to actually establish control over any of it's territory:
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
because they bet on the september market as well
0
Goobies
7 months ago
What does that matter?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
there are many proofs. Bet all you want, guaranteed win here.
2
Mmg
7 months ago
Israeli Soldiers are killed today in Lebanon. It’s enough proof that Israel invaded Lebanon by land.
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
There is no reasoning necessary. I can see from your comments you are a gambler. I am not. I am an investor. You look at 25% in 4 months as something ridiculous, and say people could do more on coins. I would remind you that the best investor of all times doesn't make 25% APY. That's for a year. If you think 25% in 4 months is not a lot, then you are in for a rude awakening at one point in your - presumably short - life. I am not criticizing you, gamble all you want, but know that you are gambling. I am not.
0
Mountainman
7 months ago
"Obviously not going to happen"- then goes on to provide no reasoning. Cool.
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
DFK
7 months ago
So. Before I start marveling at the lack of correlation between wealth and intelligence, I'd like to enquire: why would anyone dispute the market Trump Speaker before October 1 ? Because that's what is happening on discord. Lots are saying "too early". You would have to be pretty dumb to think Trump could become Speaker in the first place. That it would happen before October 1, 2024 is entirely insane. But that it is too early to decide that it didn't happen, on October 2nd...? I am honestly trying to understand how things work here. Is this just a bunch of brain dead crypto bros who got lucky once? Does anything here make sense?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Is there a way to know who proposes and who disputes? (and who reviews, and are the reviewers also betting?)
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
And it doesn't matter if it is very limited in scope. It matters if conditions in the rules are met. Jesus.
0
n/a
7 months ago
Coming directly from Israel themselves, what else do "Yes" holders need to hear?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
dude this is an anonymous source. The least credible ones. Officially they announced a ground operation. What else do "no" holders need to hear? Do you realize you don't make any sense?
0
n/a
7 months ago
Coming directly from Israel themselves, what else do "Yes" holders need to hear?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
On one hand, official statements from the whole fucking world, including Lebanon and IDF. On the other hand, "an anonymous source". Oh, and even what this source says is enough for this market to resolve yes. As localized as the area of operation may be, it is in Lebanon.
0
scottilicious
7 months ago
Truth is this could still go either way, esp. with this from CNN a few hours ago "an Israeli security official told reporters on condition of anonymity Tuesday morning that the operation does not amount to an invasion or incursion, describing it instead as “localized raids” that are “very limited in scope and in the area of operation.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Not true. Most nations have indeed reacted. All of UN security council nations have. You'd be hard pressed to find a nation that hasn't reacted other than the ones that never react. I think Switzerland hasn't reacted?
1
0xBama
7 months ago
no official statements made by any nation regarding an invasion of Lebanon by Israel. To the YES crowd, this is what RealPolitik looks like - what you see on the screen hasn't gone through the "political machine" that reconstructs what "really happened" which now officially, is no invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
The fog of war is around the success or scope or specifics of the military operation. Not about whether it commenced ot not.
1
h00r11z11n2003
7 months ago
Furthermore, even if the events of the last couple days end up being the decider, there's currently a fog of war surrounding them that makes it hard to understand exactly what's happening. The September market doesn't have the luxury to wait for that fog to clear. We do.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
People stop tripping. Nobody cares what you think an invasion constitutes. It is defined here as "commencing a military operation intended to establish control over any part of Lebanon". Did they commence it? Officially announced. Is it a military operation? Undeniable. Is the IDF intending to gain control over any area on the other side of the border? Again undeniable. Whether they succeed in controlling or maintain control is irrelevant. Nothing to be disputed here, and no reason to push back the resolution: what happened cannot not happen. It can be a failed military operation that intended to gain control over some parts of Lebanon, it cannot be "oh it never happened".
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Actually, it's not even that. It's: did at any point, IDF attempted to gain control over a Lebanese area through a regular military operation. They don't need to succeed or maintain it for this to be true.
2
DFK
7 months ago
It seems that most confusion arises from the varying interpretation of "intent to establish control". But this is meant to exclude covered ops, like recon or sabotage or intel, where the control of the area is not being established. Here there is no doubt Israel is establishing control over the area: the Lebanese military is gone, the IDF has ordered evacuation of the civilian population (over 30 villages!) , they have crossed the border with regular troops and they have announced it to the world. They have de facto control of a Lebanese area. Size of the are or duration of the control are not relevant. What is relevant is: did, at any point, Israel gained control over a Lebanese area? If you think that the answer is no, then, by all means, bet no.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Hey friend, attack me all you want but just to remind you: the wording doesn't matter. The scope doesn't matter. It is a regular military operation, in Lebanon. Who cares if it is a limited incursion with specific goals, it still qualifies. Playing on the word invasion doesn't matter. That's why the rule defines it. Does Israel have control over a Lebanese area, that right there is the definition of invasion for this market. And they do. Cheers.
0
scottilicious
7 months ago
Way too early for all the Yeses to declare victory on this, the Israelis and some media are calling it a limited incursion with specific goals. Some media are using the word "invasion" but are not sufficiently backing it up. And Lebanese army and UN are saying they don't see invasion. Establish control, invasion are not met IMO
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
It seems that most confusion arises from the varying interpretation of "intent to establish control". But this is meant to exclude covered ops, like recon or sabotage or intel, where the control of the area is not being established. Here there is no doubt Israel is establishing control over the area: the Lebanese military is gone, the IDF has ordered evacuation of the civilian population (over 30 villages!) , they have crossed the border with regular troops and they have announced it to the world. They have de facto control of a Lebanese area. Size of the are or duration of the control are not relevant. What is relevant is: did, at any point, Israel gained control over a Lebanese area? If you think that the answer is no, then, by all means, bet no.
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
You cannot use events that happened after. Evidence is another thing. If all of a sudden some light was shed on what happened exactly, it sure would impact the resolution.
0
BrandonThought
7 months ago
you cant use evidence revealed after the window closed
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
It's exactly that simple. And I'd bet anything that if you had to flee your home in Southern Lebanon right now you wouldn't be joyfully considering this is a limited euphemism operation. And I don't care what you stand to lose or not. I care what you said. And I disagree with what you said. Again, that simple.
0
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
why post a resolution this early? im even against this resolving rn tbh, we have a month, and clarity has not been achieved, thats by IDF design, they want to obscure the battlespace and movements of troops, naturally. This should be pushed back with the "too early" resolution
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
The deadline for the market has nothing to do with the occurence of the said event. It happened, or it did not happen. Simple. And it did. Pretty sure if what's happening now to Lebanese people in that area was happening to you you'd be singing a different tune
0
HaterzLoserz
7 months ago
why post a resolution this early? im even against this resolving rn tbh, we have a month, and clarity has not been achieved, thats by IDF design, they want to obscure the battlespace and movements of troops, naturally. This should be pushed back with the "too early" resolution
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
(in this scenario I assumed you were American. No offense if you're not. It's not because your name is Scott and you say dumb shit that I should jump to conclusions).
0
scottilicious
7 months ago
Way too early for all the Yeses to declare victory on this, the Israelis and some media are calling it a limited incursion with specific goals. Some media are using the word "invasion" but are not sufficiently backing it up. And Lebanese army and UN are saying they don't see invasion. Establish control, invasion are not met IMO
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Next time Chinese military come to your place and makes you evacuate your town and 30 others, and forbidd you to come back until they allow you, and you see your country's army left before they arrived, let's see how you call that my friend.
0
scottilicious
7 months ago
Way too early for all the Yeses to declare victory on this, the Israelis and some media are calling it a limited incursion with specific goals. Some media are using the word "invasion" but are not sufficiently backing it up. And Lebanese army and UN are saying they don't see invasion. Establish control, invasion are not met IMO
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I can't believe this price. If I had known, I would have waited a lil longer : /
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I was thinking the same. I bought some crappy 1c Nos on another market, and now it's like 4 cents because of the dispute. that's 400% !! And here same, the second it got disputed it dropped. So yes you're right, that would be a perfectly good strategy to pay a $750 fee to be able to offload No shares at a profit.
0
Smashtouille
7 months ago
anyone holding 10k+ no's should dispute, price is gonna double
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm gonna list the problems in your post: 1: it obviously doesn't change a thing for Israel. They knew very well it would come, and they've admittedly and undoubtedly been preparing this op for a very long time. They'll therefore keep going at it as planned. 2: this market has never been about a "full" invasion. Everybody goes with their own version of what is an invasion. It doesn't matter. An invasion is what the rule says an invasion is, and that is "if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". Period. And they A: undisputedly and allegedly commenced an operation B: with the intent to control an area in Lebanon along the border. Again, issues rise because people want to define control as something else. It is not annexation, it is control. Do they control that area, as opposed to a special ops incursion for sabotage or intel, for example. Now, maybe it can be argued that they don't YET have full control of ANY area in Lebanon, but I highly doubt it, and the size of this area is growing each and every minute. Now, what they want to do with the area, if they chose to live in 5 days or 3 weeks, we shouldn't give a shit. So no, it's not going to be a long month. It may be a long 24-48h, depending on how difficult it is for some people to comprehend those facts. Happy to help.
0
h00r11z11n2003
7 months ago
Wondering whether Iranian attack on Israel just now increases or decreases odds of full invasion. If anything, I'd argue increases: Israel has a greater argument for establishing its own defense by force and can argue it would expect Hezbollah attacks in event of a war with Iran which now seems likely. Yesers, don't give up hope. What we're seeing right now from Israel is not the full invasion but shaping operations for a larger movement that will involve more troops and mechanized forces. And yes, they will have to establish temporary control over parts of Southern Lebanon to accomplish this. Remember, this isn't the invasion in September market. Don't count your chickens, but don't think we have egg on our face either. It's going to be a long month.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
so....sell?Maybe?
0
Ravenholdt
7 months ago
I know I lost this bet but wikipedia bruh really
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
I got my lottery ticket
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Hoaxbama
3
0xBama
7 months ago
There is no invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
How does that work exactly? I get the reward system but not how to know how much will be rewarded. And does the order needs to be executed to be rewarded?
0
PokerBrat
7 months ago
Don’t mind me just farming rewards
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
Hey I figured out why 50-P did that! He is edging against a possible loss. He has a big YES position in the September market. At least that's my guess.
1
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
@chad tore down the wall
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
and 50-Pence decided to join the dark side. I'm so shocked. Well I made my bed. Now I'll wait.
1
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
@chad tore down the wall
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
alright, the US is waking up. Time to see some price action and finally wrap this up.
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
sup buddy. Just so you know, no whale dumping happened. In fact, not ONE SINGLE SHARE has been bought or sold by any of the top holders in the past few hours. Only 2 people are active: myself, and Laura, both buying. Thanks for the $20, it's not much but it's the intention that counts (pun intended).
0
n/a
7 months ago
Keep yapping while the whales are dumping 🤣
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I see you're going all in ;)
1
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
This is very clearly no. Please buy more.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
they also denied Nasrallah's death, saying he was safe and sound in a secure location. Until they didn't.
2
Hamurabi
7 months ago
Gonna be a wild ride https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1841056432612884944?t=IYVW3HD-HV3pwZVjCJYfmw&s=19
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
why is no-one proposing?
1
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
This is very clearly no. Please buy more.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
It is my understanding that september market is disputed based of timing, isn't it?
2
Meow.Zedong
7 months ago
Probably will see how September market resolves. Disputed twice. Under final review.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
not pretty much: done deal. They have 100% established control over areas in Lebanon through a military offensive. Maybe they don't intend to stay, maybe they don't intend to keep controlling, but there is no mention of duration of the control in the rules. Right now, they are in control of many areas in Lebanon. Period. Free money.
3
Donkov
7 months ago
Pretty much done deal, but lets wait for more evidence.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
sure buddy. Why don't you buy a few thousands no.
4
Car
7 months ago
A message to Y holders: Israeli troops last fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, in a war that ended inconclusively after several weeks of fighting. Israeli officials anonymously told CNN that the offensive does not aim for a "long-term occupation." It should therefore not be a repeat of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000. It was intended to create a buffer against attacks.
Iran strike on Israel before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I think Israel is baiting them and would like nothing more than to have a reason to attack them. If Iran makes a direct attack, they will be obliterated. So they are now brainstorming how to respond without giving reason enough for war. My bet goes for the tried and true use of a proxy.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
I mean without people like you there would be no markets like this, so Ig I'm grateful.
1
n/a
7 months ago
There are two different markets for a reason: One for entering and fighting in lebanon, and one for controlling and occupying. But Ig we'll see.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
buddy the market was never about Israel trying to expand its borders. Let me reverse it for you: You think IDF doesn't control any area of Lebanon right now? lol.
0
n/a
7 months ago
You've got a lot of confidence for someone without reading comprehension
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
And? the rules say over "any" portion of Lebanon. As localised and targeted as you want, they are in Lebanon. Even the BBC calls it an invasion.
0
WhaleHunter
7 months ago
Israel says ground raids are 'limited, localised and targeted'
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
You on the other hand seem to open your mouth way more than your wallet. 20 bucks confidence.
3
n/a
7 months ago
so buy more (:
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
indeed. I am.
3
n/a
7 months ago
so buy more (:
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
this is such BS. Gain control doesn't mean claim ownership. It means gain control. They undoubtedly are gaining control over parts of Lebanon, period.
0
n/a
7 months ago
This market would likely resolve to **No** based on the available information. While Israel did launch **ground raids** into southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions on **September 30, 2024**, these operations were described as **limited and localized** and not intended to establish broader control over Lebanese territory【7†source】【8†source】. The purpose of the raids was primarily to neutralize immediate threats near the border, not to seize or hold any part of Lebanon【6†source】【8†source】. There has been no official indication from Israel, Lebanon, or international bodies such as the UN or UN Security Council members that Israel sought to establish control over any portion of Lebanon during this period. Therefore, the conditions for this market, which hinge on a military offensive intended to gain control over Lebanese land, do not appear to have been met.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
The funny thing is that YES was proposed and disputed twice here, probably based on technicalities and precise timing of the invasion, but not once in the november market. Really makes no sense at all.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
The fact that this is sitting at 90% puzzles me. Ground invasion started and has been reported by all MSM media. It should actually be settled by now. Betting on things that already happened.
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
Such a steal, says the guy sitting at -93%
0
0xce75dbef183c3c119e9e7c4d730a3d7eb0af0141
7 months ago
This is such a steal, only reason I'm not buying more is because I have a gambling problem
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
mine is acting crazy as well. Shares not showing, wrong balances, everything is messed up. Very disappointing.
0
Phoenix777
7 months ago
Bought my shares 30min ago, but when i try to sell, the poly shows zero shares, am i the onlyone haveing this problem?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
dude try to go there and see if you can picnic or if they have control of the territory.
0
DT24
7 months ago
yes. limited operation. not intention to control their territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DFK
7 months ago
MSM litteraly announcing ground operations. When you do so, you necessarily control "a" (and subsequently "any") portion of the land. Why is this not resolved?
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
DFK
7 months ago
MSM announcing ground operations. Looks like a done deal by now.
3
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
DFK
7 months ago
would you mind explaining to me your betting strategy? I am puzzled by your portfolio.
0
Shayku
7 months ago
This is why I think 3 debates is undervalued.
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
DFK
7 months ago
Question: if I bet NO on several options do I need to have the cash or does it calculate the risk allowing you to bet more (based on excluding probs - there can be only one YES - just like on PredicIt)?
1
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
DFK
7 months ago
Question: if I bet on several options do I need to have the cash or does it calculate the risk allowing you to bet more (based on excluding probs, just like on PredicIt) ?
0
September 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
DFK
7 months ago
Aenews: +500k profit. You: 5k loss.
1
Lowyrok
8 months ago
when in doubt, bet against aenews :)
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
DFK
7 months ago
But was he there? Apparently, only 80% sure at the moment 🤔
0
Aquati
7 months ago
Even if he survived the first and strong strike, the following strikes of all night it's making more difficult...
Kamala Harris 538 odds >65% on Friday?
DFK
7 months ago
So...? How long before payout?
0
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
DFK
7 months ago
I tend to be on your side, yet I'm not positive they won't agree on a short Xmas truce or something along those lines. I'm positive it won't be over by 2025, but to resolve yes this market only needs a few hours break. I think it's unlikely, but very possible..
1
JIYUAN
7 months ago
free money.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
DFK
7 months ago
One day I hope to be as serene as you are throwing thousands on a feeling. Maybe it will come 🤞#lifegoals.
1
yungretard
7 months ago
Averaging more lower bc im having a hard time believing either will want to pass up on a debate (and the variance that comes with it, despite all the current posturing) when the race is projected to be a coin toss. I could be wrong and they could both play it safe but idk, I have a feeling.
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
DFK
7 months ago
This market is so weird. January 1 is 3 months away, yet it is already at 99c. I think it's almost worth it to buy yes hoping for the crazies to catch up. Usually a sure thing market doesn't get to 99c so early on.
0
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm new here, so Hello. Here is my take. Not going to happen (obviously), but 79c 4 months away is probably not the best we can get. I think this kind of market gets juicy towards the end of Biden's term, when the cray-cray think it will happen. So: safe now, but I'd bet on a better entry point when some news hits, about Hunter's sentencing or about Biden's sanity.
1
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
DFK
7 months ago
I'm struggling with your double negation. In this world of crazies I'm not even sure what you are saying about this 80%. You think it should be more, or less?
0
Mountainman
7 months ago
Market is being purposely held down so we may go lower, but we all know where this will end. For those new here, these are the rules: "For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term." If you think people that have made money on this platform are legitimately thinking that there is an 80% chance of this NOT happening, I have a bridge to sell you.