Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Yea me too. MA should help more than I realized. Close either way ofc

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Feeling better about under 1.5% than I was a few days ago. The votes needed should be there if all goes to plan

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Yes I made one lol. I’m just saying the reason it’s so high is 200k+ votes is a big cushion when it’s only 600k away.

0

n/a

2 months ago

This market doesn’t sync up well with the 155M+ voter turnout market. There are plenty more votes coming, or else that market is screwed up.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

That market includes extra write in votes that don’t count in state certifications

0

n/a

2 months ago

This market doesn’t sync up well with the 155M+ voter turnout market. There are plenty more votes coming, or else that market is screwed up.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

SOS websites and county websites.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Since there are so many conflicting sources of information for remaining votes and county percentages, does anybody have an educated opinion of which media source can actually be trusted?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Probably a good detail to know before being in for 13k shares lol

4

0x279d4E19D5Be7Bc6d25F3C6777B6802B47AFbC0e-1727574846421

2 months ago

"less than 1.5%" means 1.4999999...% or 1.4%?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

“What have you done for me lately” market lol

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

See below

0

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Personally, I think Kamala is a stronger candidate than many realize and will persevere to the point where it will pull down the popular vote, even if people consider the Democrats to be weaker in the popular vote this year. I remember a time where people here thought it was nearly impossible for her to even lose the popular vote. And even though this may have been grossly exaggerated I can’t believe she will let the popular vote slip away from her by more than 1.5%. She just has too much perseverance. Her concession speech was very strong, her base would not neglect her after such a gracious acceptance of defeat.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

NYC is the X factor of this market.

2

bibii

2 months ago

At this stage, I'm anticipating that we'll observe very slight daily or alternate-day decreases in the margin, likely around 0.01%, unless a significant drop happens from a major city like NYC or similar. I do hope for a big drop because the market always gets spicy when that happens.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Fax? Lol

0

Astera

2 months ago

Now for the slow grind that will test out the resolve of some to hold onto their positions and to second guess their calculations, but history shows that this is to be expected in that we’ll only be dripped vote counts for some time yet. I’ve been using the pullback as opportunities to top up my position as see it as great value even at this price.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Discord add poly?

0

Astera

2 months ago

Now for the slow grind that will test out the resolve of some to hold onto their positions and to second guess their calculations, but history shows that this is to be expected in that we’ll only be dripped vote counts for some time yet. I’ve been using the pullback as opportunities to top up my position as see it as great value even at this price.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

It’s called having some fun man

0

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Personally, I think Kamala is a stronger candidate than many realize and will persevere to the point where it will pull down the popular vote, even if people consider the Democrats to be weaker in the popular vote this year. I remember a time where people here thought it was nearly impossible for her to even lose the popular vote. And even though this may have been grossly exaggerated I can’t believe she will let the popular vote slip away from her by more than 1.5%. She just has too much perseverance. Her concession speech was very strong, her base would not neglect her after such a gracious acceptance of defeat.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You can literally make that argument for any version of direct democracy lol.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

One thing I've realized via this exercise is how dumb PV is. All it takes is some cultish population that is like +80 or something to overpower the vote of say another population that is 20x in size but only +4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Personally, I think Kamala is a stronger candidate than many realize and will persevere to the point where it will pull down the popular vote, even if people consider the Democrats to be weaker in the popular vote this year. I remember a time where people here thought it was nearly impossible for her to even lose the popular vote. And even though this may have been grossly exaggerated I can’t believe she will let the popular vote slip away from her by more than 1.5%. She just has too much perseverance. Her concession speech was very strong, her base would not neglect her after such a gracious acceptance of defeat.

5

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

:,(

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Join us UMA. Together we can unite and create a happy ending.

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Lmfao we responded at the same time and you literally proved the point I was making. LMAO

0

n/a

2 months ago

The other app market is out of control. Positions down to 60/40 for no good reason.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

People think that when we don’t get many votes for 12 hours the voting might be over. That’s literally it. Which side would be wanna be on? Data and trends trusting the best analysis we have… or the attention span of a goldfish?

0

n/a

2 months ago

The other app market is out of control. Positions down to 60/40 for no good reason.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I’m making fun of UMA.

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Thank goodness our Robin Hood in tights hero Unlimited Market Analysis is here to save the day. He’s going to save all the people who have made poor prediction bets from all the scammers and pumpers on Polymarket!!! And how is he going to do it? Well by posting 437 times a day from his mom’s basement! That’s how!

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Anyways did you guys know that the Polymarket CEO got raided by the fbi?

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Interesting how the trends keep aiming to hit the benchmark sooner and sooner. Who could have possibly predicted that?

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I’m not in the turnout market genius. You need me to get scammed here.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So, yeah, everything is fine. No scams here. Just ignore the FBI doing a 6am raid on the CEO of poly.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You’re concerned? Great get your money off the site and go somewhere else.

3

Justifax

2 months ago

So, yeah, everything is fine. No scams here. Just ignore the FBI doing a 6am raid on the CEO of poly.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

It’s not a scam, it’s a rules cuck. And they happen all the time in prediction markets. I’m not sure what will happen with 3rd party market, that’s why I’m not it in. I could see it going either way. Counting normal certifications OR including extra write ins because the site is the listed source resolution. I’d lean towards whatever numbers are on the link of source resolution. But I’m not sure. So im not playing that market.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Lol that would make sense if it’s true.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Also you’re changing the subject about me being right about markets vs there being scams on the site. If I get scammed out of my money so be it. But I will take profitable positions when they arise.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Because you know more about scams than me? Congrats dude. You seriously talk like there are monsters under the bed.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

*unique to poly

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

People trying to manipulate the resolution system is unique to PI I’ll give you that. But it’s also very avoidable.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Dude there are plenty of scammers and bag pumper on PI. (*Were lol rip) they would post fake links and build fake websites, they did it all.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Yea some people are shilling bags to flip. Of course that’s normal. If you know more about the market than them you just ignore it.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I played predicted since the 2020 elections. I have a shit ton of experience and I’m a big winner. This isn’t the only place for prediction markets man.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You’re assuming my thought process buddy. Do you really think someone that knows how to scrape SOS websites to find clerical errors is just flipping coins out here?

1

Justifax

2 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I was lucky to be dead right about the turnout margin and so far be right about this market? Okay.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

The reason you dislike holding is because it’s scary and it makes you nervous. That’s very obvious.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Wow. PolyPredictor positing again with NO ALPHA. Shilling a position with no links or evidence. Waiting to dump the bags. He is arrogant and full of himself. BUYER BEWARE.

2

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to 1.61%, if vote pace keeps up we could be resolved here by end of the week

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Dude that’s just UMA, you get used to him.

1

TruthSearUm

2 months ago

This market is like dealing with a psychotic girlfriend

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Bruh he doesn’t even have a position lmao why ask him

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

We don’t lay facts out as whole because if you don’t understand some basics here you gotta figure that out for yourself sorry

0

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I’m teasing you because you said that to us.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Ngl. It seems like you’re just using the data point you wanted to get the result you want with that graph.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Cashed out equal shares of greater than 1.5 after seeing that graph and kept the equal shares of less than 1.5, which have been growing while greater than 1.5 shrank. Couldn’t have done it without you guys.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

“What does poly intend to use?” That question shows you don’t really understand how this works. I tired to explain the difference between how the sources compile the data above.

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

No he understand all of this probably better than anyone tbh and he’s using the fastest method.

1

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

It’s lag. From my interpretation I believe NBC is pulling from county by county sources to update numbers nationally. I think DD and Cook are more so pulling from statewide “Secretary of state” numbers. 2 different ways to get to the same result eventually.

0

LolCorporation

2 months ago

a lot of uncertainty about the number of votes, any information? What is the most accurate info?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Lol I meant to respond to you and moved it hah. My bad. In my phone clicked the wrong link

1

Captain37

2 months ago

According to Decesion desk Trump now leads by 2,498,035. Once it hits 2,330,000 it will be below 1.5%.. Almost there!!! Earlier today at 12:15pm according to cook political we were at a 2,540,298 difference!!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Might be 10k less even. Earlier today DD chopped 10k off Kamala’s total from porter county Indiana. Seems linked to a clerical error on the IN Secretary of State page. Directly from the county source I see those ballots still existing.

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Down to just 165,535 more needed for 1.5%!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

He’s not trolling he’s data illiterate. Just ignore him,

0

n/a

2 months ago

This vote count margin is literally unchanged for the entire night so far.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Holy shit. Incredible foresight.

1

Justifax

2 months ago

epic: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416179.0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Okay. My fact is… the final vote counts are higher than either day. Since counties don’t randomly take down 10s of thousands of votes, it’s more likely they changed their reference source that was slightly different. I know you don’t like my but can you contend with my assertions?

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Also the final vote counts for the election were above both of those numbers in the dates you referenced. That’s a fact.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Your facts is what the Wikipedia page says… I’m putting out an alternative reason the counts changed on Wikipedia. You haven’t put out an explanation for why they changed either, you’ve just showed that they did.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

By counter I mean aggregator aka decision desk, cook, NEP

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

The final counts were above both of those. They probably changed their reference source or something. Votes don’t get revised down by 10s of thousands like that if the counter is doing a good job.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I have been harsh with my critique. I do think you’re a smart dude. I’ll let the joke go.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I’m messing with ya man, relax

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You’ve had a very good run regardless so you should be pleased

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Lol I’m sorry

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Glad to hear you sold. Everytime you’ve done that the market have moved against the sale lol. Never forget the Rabs.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Don’t worry I heard Illinois is done.

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Big day for Kamala and its only 1pm ET lol Down to 180k net votes needed for 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You literally just decreed how it was sticking at 60/40 because extra votes came in and now it moves and you say you predicted it lol. Must be a nice life, correct no matter what happens!

2

n/a

2 months ago

Would you look at that. Now converging to 50/50 after bonehead ridiculed the notion below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You can look at my account genius.

4

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Wait I heard we were going to 50/50 tonight… what’s happening

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Glad you have things so figured out bud. Dont know what the rest of us would do with you.

0

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Wait I heard we were going to 50/50 tonight… what’s happening

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Wait I heard we were going to 50/50 tonight… what’s happening

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Spoken like someone who doesn’t know what the heck they are talking about. Speak for yourself.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Maliknabers, I’m guessing that you failed to see the convergence coming again. 70/30 to 60/40 has to hurt a bit.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

It’s pretty low volumes and it’s being led by people who have no idea what they are doing, so no it doesn’t hurt. And I’ve been buying the dips.

1

n/a

2 months ago

Maliknabers, I’m guessing that you failed to see the convergence coming again. 70/30 to 60/40 has to hurt a bit.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

“Trump do gooder than last time. Trump get higher number.”

2

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Maga data analysis is literally the level of a 3rd grader lmfao.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Maga data analysis is literally the level of a 3rd grader lmfao.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Do you know the average change a recount makes to a total? Lmao

0

Andy0091

2 months ago

I've ran this scenario dozens of times, 1.75-2 is highly undervalued. I would expect it to be about 50/50 within the next few days, my estimates are 1.70-1.79. By the time we have recounts & all the other BS 1.75 is very possible.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Dude these are vote counts and trends of returns from areas that have ballots… not polls. Lmfao. You think vote counting is polling. You can’t make this shit up.

2

Andy0091

2 months ago

I've ran this scenario dozens of times, 1.75-2 is highly undervalued. I would expect it to be about 50/50 within the next few days, my estimates are 1.70-1.79. By the time we have recounts & all the other BS 1.75 is very possible.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

It appears Atlas might really know what they are doing. Gonna be keeping a keen eye on them in future elections

2

TruthSearUm

2 months ago

Good drops for the coconut queen. Atlas is gonna be real close with their 1.34% prediction.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

*vote share not margin

0

Justifax

2 months ago

I for real thought he'd amp up his estimates, rather than reduce them. Today will be a big day!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

He obviously doesn’t know what hes doing. He has the trump margin at a number its already under.

1

Justifax

2 months ago

I for real thought he'd amp up his estimates, rather than reduce them. Today will be a big day!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Flippers gonna flip

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Congrats to the traders, figured with slow moving votes this might flip a bit.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I mean it’s hard to mess up adding certified vote counts but still, probably better to just have one chosen

0

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Why is there no resolution source for this when the turnout market has one and a secondary?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Why is there no resolution source for this when the turnout market has one and a secondary?

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I agree. He may pick up another 2k when Alabama certifies. Im considering selling, these are game changing numbers.

4

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Trump just picked up 1.2k in Utah. Hence the market correcting. If you want to beat the market I suggest finding these data points before others do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Trump just picked up 1.2k in Utah. Hence the market correcting. If you want to beat the market I suggest finding these data points before others do.

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Damn. I forgot how red California is now. I better sell.

2

badatthis

2 months ago

Let's see how these prices hold. Lots of speculation but also momentum traders. Turn out going to be around 155,5mil I guess and that would mean 2,3mil more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Right wing analyst what do you expect,

1

Justifax

2 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858495430008377426 Est 850k votes to count? Honest question: any clue what he's talking about?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Youve seen the light. Welcome.

2

rektoplasma

2 months ago

just a reminder to take your profits

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Risk tolerance is actually a very important aspect of investment management lol

1

rektoplasma

2 months ago

just a reminder to take your profits

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Some of us have some balls here and dont play markets like pussies.

0

rektoplasma

2 months ago

just a reminder to take your profits

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Trusting high quality sources is a good idea. Prediction markets have made me much more of an institutionalist becuase as it turns out, the systems work pretty darn well. As inconvenient as that is to political narratives.

1

Flaner

2 months ago

Well I had deleted it but reposting again since I have no liquidity to buy cheap anyway. https://pastecode.io/s/a51scazm

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

But what about your intuition?!

0

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

I was hoping to buy more before it took off but oh well, I can share the math here. If we assume turnout of exactly 155 million (turnover market has it at 80%+ chance of it being above that) then to be within 1.5% margin the she needs to close the lead to 2,325,000 (155,000,000*.015). Using Atlas the current lead is 2,661,238 which means she needs to gain 336,238 more in order to close the gap. With 155 million turnout that would mean almost exactly 2 million votes are left so in order to gain 336,238 in 2 million votes she needs to be +16.8119 compared to Trumps margin the rest of the way (336238/2,000,000*100). The last week she has been somewhere around +20 and the votes tend to get bluer the later we get (cities take the longest). Since last Sunday Trump got 36.5% and Kamala got 59%, +22.5% spread

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

You guys forgot. You made it too big to rig. I commend you for that. But our mules are still hard at work so we can convince the country the democrats are still a legitimate party. This is the analysis you forgot about in your triumph.

6

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Bro Im not gonna lie I considered selling some yesterday in the turnout market because I was thinking not many votes will come on the weekend and Ill get better prices. I ended up deciding that was getting way too fancy.

1

PolyPredictor

2 months ago

Kind of crazy that a day when basically no votes come in is when people realize the mispricing

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Pretty, aint it?

3

rektoplasma

2 months ago

flipping is happening now

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Yea. Seems like weve been on the same page for a while. You were smart to make your investment over here for the cheap prices.

1

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Interesting, looks like the under 1.5 yes holders and 1.5-1.75 no holders dont want to sell. Hm. Im sure they are just busy today.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Haha well I think the correlation between the turnout market and this market dont match. But hey, maybe that market is wrong. Or maybe im wrong about the correlation.

2

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Interesting, looks like the under 1.5 yes holders and 1.5-1.75 no holders dont want to sell. Hm. Im sure they are just busy today.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Interesting, looks like the under 1.5 yes holders and 1.5-1.75 no holders dont want to sell. Hm. Im sure they are just busy today.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Hes coping man. He clearly has a bit of an obsession with figuring out other traders motives. Its fundamental to a lack of his own ability to have strong convictions. He will just keep saying youre reading into it too much and deny it. No point it pointing it out to him.

3

Justifax

2 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Eh just that there are plenty of votes still out there. But obv we knew that. His point was people make post mortems the day the race is called and they run with bad narratives that dont make sense once the final vote is in.

0

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Dave Wasserman must not be an elections lab believer.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Dave Wasserman must not be an elections lab believer.

0

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

When they are certified, on the Secretary of State websites for each state.

0

Clenc

2 months ago

how can we be sure that uselectionatlas does not add false votes?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Just read the top of their webpage. If the way they describe what they are doing sounds like the most powerful and robust use of data and that the efforts of their project is to accurately predict final vote totals. Then youre all set. To me it reads as a casual placeholder, with caveats explained, to temporarily serve their larger project of deep diving into turnout data.

2

HLB

2 months ago

Just to be clear, in 2020 UFL overshot the presidential vote by 1.1mil ballots and that was still after undercounting Illinois and Michigan

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

If you think UFL is actively spending resources trying to project the popular vote in the same way as the people who actively say they are doing it and deep diving into SOS and county data, then by all means. Theres a great price to buy for the place spending the least resources on projecting being the most right.

2

HLB

2 months ago

Just to be clear, in 2020 UFL overshot the presidential vote by 1.1mil ballots and that was still after undercounting Illinois and Michigan

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

A real genius here. States officially certify the counts and they are publicly available. I swear these conspiracy theorys are gonna drive me crazy, ironically.

0

Clenc

2 months ago

how can we be sure that uselectionatlas does not add false votes?

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

There is no official count for a national vote. It all has to be accumulated individually from states, and if youre meticulous even counties. Both of these sources are doing that process in their own ways, leading to slightly different numbers. When official canvassing/ certification happens everything will line up.

0

Clenc

2 months ago

How is it possible that NBC has more than 153 million votes counted including 2.7 million for the other parties and that the atlas site has less than 153 million votes counted and 2.9 million votes for the other parties? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results#results

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

While I dont know the project well enough to ever say their current estimates have over shot. I wouldnt put money on a method that has added 2.8 million ballots in 8 days because of a personal belief that it will suddenly change and will start subtracting from the total. I believe the project is more interested in turnout data than projecting. But this is why we bet. GL

2

HLB

2 months ago

Just to be clear, in 2020 UFL overshot the presidential vote by 1.1mil ballots and that was still after undercounting Illinois and Michigan

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

UFL is not a projection. It is an estimate of the current count. That is why in Nov 8th their count was 153 million. It never goes down because it is only possible to count more ballots that they become aware of, not subtract ballots they know to be in existence. The estimate is an estimate of what they know is out there.

3

HLB

2 months ago

Just to be clear, in 2020 UFL overshot the presidential vote by 1.1mil ballots and that was still after undercounting Illinois and Michigan

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Im guessing he felt the market was too reliant on supposed experts like Nate silver who have been known to make mistakes. Who knows. He can tell us lol. I like the experts side here. Elections project is not a popular vote projection and I dont believe they are trying to do that with their estimates. And the JCP dude or whoever just seems to not have the most up to date data.

3

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

If thats the case, he may delete this thread as the initial public opinion has pushed the price away from him.

0

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Fair fight. Obviously this has been pointed out. I am under the impression that the election project is conducting on estimation of the ballots they are aware exist. Which of course, to your point, are not all votes for pres. However, as they become aware of more votes, they seem to be adding to their estimates. Their estimates are not projections of a final amount, but merely an estimation of what they believe to know exists. Which is why their estimates only seem to grow upward. Perhaps they have estimated downwards and I just missed it. I could be dead wrong here. But if they keep adjusting upward (assuming counties that havent fully submitted and provisional ballots) the estimate will soon be high enough where the subtracted ballots without a pres vote will still be above 155. GL all.

1

rabs

2 months ago

OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I know. But youve still accumulated a large position and sold twice. Hence the likes on my comment. Lol

4

Justifax

2 months ago

rabs any chance you can do another major pump so i can buy back in :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Youre incredibly indecisive. You must change your mind about what to eat for dinner 4 times before you commit.

12

Justifax

2 months ago

rabs any chance you can do another major pump so i can buy back in :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

JMC 154.2 (+.3M vs yesterday)

1

Sardinianshepherd

2 months ago

Estimate update, no much changes vs yestarday, but an healty milion of new votes counted: AP: 155.7M (+0M vs yesterday) Edison Research: 156.1M (+0M vs yesterday) Election Lab: 155.8M (+0.3M vs yesterday) Actuals: 153M (+0.9 vs yesterday) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857756801413877825

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

The Secretary of State had the larger 2,333,126 number. AP and Atlas havent updated

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I was under the impression it was going to slow down and then bump again when west coast provisionals come in, in early Dec

1

Justifax

2 months ago

I'll admit, one of the reasons I sold was because looking through the wiki I saw the vote count decrease dramatically. Eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=990692251 to https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=991047022 If anyone has an explanation for this, would love to hear it.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Sure but its 1 in 10 million in a perfectly balanced market. You have to find your edges somewhere and I bought before peasant spilled the beans on this one. I assume this is why the market just corrected.

3

peasant

2 months ago

Thank god 155-160 is inclusive of 155. At this point every vote matters

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

I was close on which to buy, that put me over the edge.

2

peasant

2 months ago

Thank god 155-160 is inclusive of 155. At this point every vote matters

CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)

MalikNabers

2 months ago

The steel will be stopped. The steal will not.

2

Iowa Margin of Victory

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Yes. That thing would be reality.

7

354t5425g

2 months ago

Maybe I should bet on Trump winning Iowa by 10+ points. Easy fortune unless there's something I'm not seeing

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

*panic*

0

Rayse

2 months ago

damn you guys were fast

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Sharks in the water...

0

Rayse

2 months ago

damn you guys were fast

Who will win each swing district?

MalikNabers

2 months ago

Clark should be 99.999999999999999999999999

2

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

It’s widely known that it is not possible to record two podcasts within the time frame of a day. Free money on No here.

0

Reaper01

3 months ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4946354-harris-campaigns-texas-abortion-bans/

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Always love it when a dude who can’t even break even on the site thinks he’s clever.

0

MalikNabers

3 months ago

This is a preview of election night trumpers. Enjoy.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

This is a preview of election night trumpers. Enjoy.

2

What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

MalikNabers

3 months ago

LMAO

0

TheTank

3 months ago

I think we are good ngl

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

First time?

0

Frozencomet

3 months ago

Also i think 2.5-2.9 is undervalued. Sure it isnt likely, but its got to be a more than 1% chance

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

A rich guy buying up millions of shares on Polymarket is his metric lol

0

idfkanything

3 months ago

I think we might have a different definition of "cratering." The 538 average is exact same now as it was the day before the VP debate. What signals are you looking at that indicate a cratering?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Don’t worry buddy. I’m sure someone will scoop up your 3 shares if you want to sell it.

3

dav1

3 months ago

damn, that spike just now, lack of liquidity

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Gladly roll the dice at 1/4 here. Thanks

3

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

It was a post debate interview in the spin room

0

Shayku

3 months ago

Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again, because I don't see the tweet. Link?

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Ryan was +4? I remember Biden doing well against him lol

0

Ox8

3 months ago

Vance +2 in CNN closest in recent history. Previous CNN VP debate instant poll results: 2020: Harris +21 2016: Pence +6 2012: Ryan +4 2008: Biden +15

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Well CNN said he won so… ain’t no sure bet buddy

0

Remontada

3 months ago

Regarding people saying that Ipsos is biased, and that they said Biden "won" or "barely lost" the debate, have a read of what they actually said yourself. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Cue 3 insane Trump lunatics telling you you’re a gay Kamala fan boy for saying something completely logical.

0

HappyAmateur

3 months ago

tbh peoples brains are prob a bit fried after 4 years but Pence also presented as a normal republican during his debate and performed well but still solidly lost to Kamala, and Vance now is much more disliked then he was at the time.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

People realizing slowly that the people polled on this poll voted 40% that Biden won when he literally couldn’t talk lol.

6

Will there be another debate?

MalikNabers

3 months ago

Because he changed his mind before, he will therefore do it again is pretty weak logic. All decisions have different variables to them.

2

Car

3 months ago

Just like he switched his mind on meeting Zelensky he will do the same with this debate. Its always the typical angry Trump comments in rallies and (social) media, then he quietly changes his mind and then makes a statement. Just watch and see.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Really they are doing their customers a service by correctly weighing against the “fake news” polls with advanced scientific manipulation. Most on here are too small brained to understand.

4

UncleSmurf

4 months ago

Why did they drop TIPP 9/13 when there are other polls ending on 9/13 in the results (and a 9/12)? lol fuck rcp.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Wow the biggest pro multi debate guy lol

0

Shayku

4 months ago

Yea I mostly pulled out, I don't think it's happening.

Will there be another debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Harris accepted a CNN debate. Which means nothing lol

1

nedeshevka

4 months ago

what news is the price moving on?

Will there be another debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I’m not sure you understand how this works…

0

Car

4 months ago

Thanks for playing

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

He entered in Rasmussen as +2 kamala and “fixed” it

0

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

4 months ago

Insane. He actually dropped them and brought them back. Holy fuck.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Pretty sus… idk I’m sure someone can figure it out

1

sigh

4 months ago

self trading?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol okay I think they are messing with us…

2

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

HarrisX

0

BrandonThought

4 months ago

what poll came out

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

That poll was released last night and I had my eye on it… can’t believe that didn’t get to it til now lol

1

diddy

4 months ago

What the hell

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol oops.

0

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Barring something completely unforeseen. 2.0 is going to need a new poll +1 Kamala or worse

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol impossible is a stretch but I quite like the bracket

0

diddy

4 months ago

In 24 hours it’s impossible

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Completely fair points lol. I feel good about the bracket, i appreciate the chance to ride the shares to maturity. Well played bro

1

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

4 months ago

Who had ras as flat on their bingo card?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Barring something completely unforeseen. 2.0 is going to need a new poll +1 Kamala or worse

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Very well played regardless.

0

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

4 months ago

Who had ras as flat on their bingo card?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I assume that was you selling at 66? Feel like you coulda got more

1

AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe

4 months ago

Who had ras as flat on their bingo card?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I think technically, depending on the decimal points, it could be a legit 2. Small window for it though.

0

mombil

4 months ago

WTF is going on today, RCP fucking up, Rasmussen staying flat after they published different data? idk what to believe anymore

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Well that was fun. Huge curveball by ras there

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Two polls. Removing the Emerson +2 would net nothing.

0

432

4 months ago

still even with rassmussen RCP just needs to take out one old poll and we are back at 2.1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

They know that juicy Rasmussen is coming so they didn’t mind throwing a bone lol

0

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I’m sure they will take very kindly to hyper obsessed perceived Kamala supporters spamming them with emails to drop the other NYT lol

1

SpikedTurnip

4 months ago

My guess is that it's because they didn't remove the 'NY Times/Siena' down below yet, when you remove that, it's 2.1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

People think there are “rules” and they made a “mistake”

1

diddy

4 months ago

Can someone explain logic for 2.1 mass buy NYT makes it worse for this range

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

“Should be very slightly positive for Harris on net” - Nate silver

0

BrandonThought

4 months ago

lol Marist PA tie, it's Joever

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I don’t know. I’m just another dude so they could easily know something I don’t.

2

EdgyUsername

4 months ago

Was that way people started panic buying Harris +2.1-2.5

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not a bad call eh? Haha

0

EdgyUsername

4 months ago

Which polls are we expecting other than Rasmussen next?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Marist poll tonight notably NOT a national poll.

1

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not really lol.

2

BrandonThought

4 months ago

there's a little too much enthusiasm here

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

None for sure that I know. Fox or Emerson seem to have a shot. A couple others possible

2

EdgyUsername

4 months ago

Which polls are we expecting other than Rasmussen next?

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

X.com/polymarketbet/isuckathis

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

The cope is strong with this one.

0

Shayku

4 months ago

Like clockwork, today's polling shows a strong post-debate bounce for Harris. The pressure mounts, and it will continue to get worse for Trump in the next days. I expect the debate negotiations to be known some time between Sep 20th and Sep 25th.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Harris in as Forbes. Monmouth not counted as they don’t poll “horserace”

1

SpiceStyleCalvinCoolidge

4 months ago

HarrisX+Monmouth otw?

Will there be another debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Buy more then. Free money.

3

n/a

4 months ago

Trump is nowhere near sure enough of winning to avoid a debate. He will have to, and Kamala will goad him. He will look like a coward if he doesn’t. It’s possible there won’t be a debate but it’s a 70% yes at least. 33 is just silly.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Kamalamentum

1

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

It was a prevent me from losing money defense

3

4thand10

4 months ago

LOL that may have been the worst prevent defense I've ever seen in my life.

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Aged very well.

1

TCA

4 months ago

I can't believe anyone would take the falcons over the eagles with no points it's insanity. Eagles are going to absolutely CRUSH them. This is free money imo.

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

If by trash you meant bank. Correct.

0

05brownboy

4 months ago

fr throwing money in the trash

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Rekt

0

AppleADay

4 months ago

ncie

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

LMAO GGS

0

NFL Monday

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Tasty. Eagles defense is trash lol

1

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

True lol they fucking celebrate when the outliers are on the side they want haha

1

Justifax

4 months ago

the problem is ras is they don't warn their audience that the +6 is probably BS noise

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Reuters is a news organization, not a pollster

0

Randomchooser

4 months ago

atlas intel rules! And its just sunday...

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

See Robinhood’s answer. There are no rules they do whatever they want and they will pick whichever way favors the GOP

1

sdiff123

4 months ago

It's a second ipsos poll. When did they not uphold this rule for Trump @BallstotheWalz

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

My theory is they consider it “second ipsos poll” a rule they wouldn’t uphold for Trump but… see the main posters point lol

2

Randomchooser

4 months ago

atlas intel rules! And its just sunday...

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

We’ll see what aggregators rate them after this cycle.

0

sdiff123

4 months ago

Good thing they started - Atlas Intel is an A+ pollster!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Couldn’t deny those tasty Trump numbers any longer. Busted their nut as they threw it in.

1

MrNFT

4 months ago

I’ve never seen them use atlas intel for the 5+ years I’ve been tracking rcp lol

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Wow. As far as I know the first time I’ve ever seen them add an Atlas Intel poll. RCP gonna RCP

6

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Will likely be entered as +4 fyi

0

Smokey-Joe

4 months ago

ABC/IPSOS +6 https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1835289319197536436

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Tell me you’re a losing trader without telling me you’re a losing trader.

0

SpiceStyleCalvinCoolidge

4 months ago

how is the bracket that the average is currently in priced at 20c lol?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol. This won’t age well.

0

CalOne1

4 months ago

I still guess that 1.6-2.0 is the most realistic

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I don’t think you are taking into account historical effects of debates and the upside (or downsides) for each candidate respectively. But agree to disagree. We’ll see.

0

Dick Cheney

4 months ago

He probably should debate if the polls are brutal. If she is gaining an advantage than you want variance if you are the Trump campaign. Plus his ego won’t allow not debating, can’t feel like a loser

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

You know she’s already been ahead in it right? Lol

2

-nothingburger-

4 months ago

This Nate Silver bulletin isn't Polymarket. She will never going to flip him

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

These polls are absolutely brutal for Trump. The clear play is to not risk it happening again and hope this bump is temporary (as they have been in he past). His advisors and donors will be pushing hard for him to not debate again. Sure he can overrule them but… he seems happy to make excuses that go along with what they advise and they will stroke his ego as much as they need to get him to do what they want.

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Hi lucy! (It’s fitzy)

1

LucyCross

4 months ago

The market makers seem more comfortable spreading their legs wider than I ever was.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not really. Even if he wants to they have to negotiate the terms which is more of a question of weighing incentives. His mood matters for sure but there are other factors.

0

sahee

4 months ago

This 3 million dollar market is completely dependent on Donald Trump's "mood" 💀

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

This and the others lol

0

just.some.guy

4 months ago

Trump: "There will not be another debate." This market: Eh, Trump says a lot of stuff.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol are you in Trumps room with him at night? That’s some crazy analysis.

1

Shayku

4 months ago

Every night, he's replaying it in his mind, cringing and imagining what he should have said. He needs a bit more time to process, but he'll want his shot when he feels ready again.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Gg

0

sigh

4 months ago

Thanks for playing!

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

You’re a breakeven trader.

1

nnimrodd

4 months ago

I wrote a polymarket playbook https://nnimrodd.medium.com/polymarket-playbook-5f53a2dd8ee3

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol I got 4K worth and had just sold some of a different market to buy more and came back and missed another buy by seconds :( still a nice free $300 though

1

sigh

4 months ago

Big shoutout to @trumpisreal, who clearly forgot to cancel his limit order

Will there be another debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not really. If they don’t start ironing out details within next few weeks it’ll be too late

2

Fact

4 months ago

We still have 1.5 months to see whether there will be another one

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I like my Trump officials that haven’t been fired.

2

Chen1996

4 months ago

CNN: Ex-Trump Official predicts Trump will “change his tune” on his third debate.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Only issue with this is he doesn’t believe “fake news” polls only polls that show him winning. So he will never be down.

0

Chen1996

4 months ago

She will keep insisting and if the polls show trump down, he’ll be forced to accept the debate

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Fun to see the 2 debate cope-ing lol

3

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Obviously lol people fall for his tough act. It’s bull..

3

Scoobs

4 months ago

Ahahaha he’s such a biiiitch

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Okay bro

0

n/a

4 months ago

mark my words, we will get 2nd and possibly 3rd debate. easiest money to be made

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

RCP hold my beer Hail Mary time

0

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Yea I also think they are content with how this one went and okay to leave it there. Also clearly Trump isn’t very interested. I have this more like 75/25

0

Whome

4 months ago

It's simple: Kamala spent a week preparing for this debate. She doesn't have the time left to waqste another week. There will be plenty of posturing but no second debate.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Cope harder. He very obviously lost and doesn’t want to go through that again.

1

PleaseBeStupid

4 months ago

He offered her 3 debates when she became the nominee and she declined all but ABC.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Sounds like hes gonna chicken out

1

Will the Debate finish by 10:30 PM?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

gg, 2 min closing statements

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Gang is all here

1

Gaeten-Dugas

4 months ago

Holy shit he's back. Perfect electoral college map wen?

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Classic RCP move there. Too bad I was busy and couldn’t be around for movement. Oh well

3

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Dude it was obviously a mistake, they will probably fix the dates and update them but it literally changes nothing for the average.

0

Randomchooser

4 months ago

tbh i expected it to be update to +1 trump for the 31/8 - 06/06 week but i don't really understand why they changed the +2 related to the past week

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

They are trying to convince themselves they aren’t holding bags lol

1

n/a

4 months ago

No lol you guys are confused

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I’m not buying at 75+ so yea it’s possible but I’m also not selling for under 75

0

n/a

4 months ago

Why you guys bailing on 1.5-1.9... it's like 80% certain for 1.5-1.9 right now

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Oh I just saw your position lol. Well played.

0

n/a

4 months ago

Why you guys bailing on 1.5-1.9... it's like 80% certain for 1.5-1.9 right now

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

LOL Rip RCP aka Truck. The largest lifetime loser in RCP poll history keeps his streak alive and deletes his incorrect predictions in comments. Very predictable

6

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Reload your RCP…

2

n/a

4 months ago

Why you guys bailing on 1.5-1.9... it's like 80% certain for 1.5-1.9 right now

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Omg this is Truck again. Dude you are wrong everytime in RCP markets lmaoooo

0

diddy

4 months ago

Guys I made a calculation previously, I don’t think this will be +2 Kamala, don’t take my word for it but let’s see

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Your math ain’t mathin then lol

0

diddy

4 months ago

Guys I made a calculation previously, I don’t think this will be +2 Kamala, don’t take my word for it but let’s see

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not the best math I’ve ever seen. It replaces the other Rass poll.

0

diddy

4 months ago

Guys I made a calculation previously, I don’t think this will be +2 Kamala, don’t take my word for it but let’s see

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Lol people buying out both 1.5-1.9 and 2.0-2.4. Good work team.

1

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Not how this market works.

1

BedardiRaja

4 months ago

it's august 31. shouldn't this get resolved already?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

What could go wrong? It wasn’t at 94 cents a couple days ago and completely collapsed or anything like that.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

sure hope nothing weird happens, cause like woah

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Redfield too now, we’ll see if it’s enough to overcome that convention bounce. Probably close.

0

ACat

4 months ago

Godspeed if you’ve truly done the math to show that those Morning Consult swing state polls today aren’t enough to get this to or close to resolving for Harris on tomorrow’s update.

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Ggs, until next time. (Ty for 10k shares of 2.5 no @80. Very generous.)

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I think some ptsd and there is one good reason why I am still out at these prices

1

UncleSmurf

4 months ago

Wild how little it has moved in the last hour. Think everyone has PTSD from the updates today.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

It has 6% Kennedy it’s in the article.

0

n/a

4 months ago

So apparently RCP will add IPSOS’s poll as it clearly has a 1 on 1 result (kamala +4). This should bring us to 1.8 🙏🙏🙏 https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-has-small-lead-over-trump-latest-reutersipsos-poll

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Dude you’ve been nonstop wrong about everything all day. In both RCP markets. Maybe this isn’t your thing.

2

diddy

4 months ago

Fuckkkkkkkk how is it 1.6…….

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Great advice

1

ShadowKing

4 months ago

Don’t just rely on others’ analysis; think independently. Even smart money can be wrong at times.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

It’s when the graphs says 31 not when the day hits fyi, gonna be like 4-5 more days

0

jl3128776

4 months ago

Let’s take a real tally of which polls could be added between now and end of tomorrow

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

You’ll need one. You don’t want this to come to down a daily kos replacement

0

Whome

4 months ago

Siena and Marist have not dropped in a while, and they likely conducted new polls after the DNC. Hopefuly we get at least one.

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Truck what happened to all the loads of polls coming in?

1

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

An interesting aspect of this is, to close the “time frame window” on the graph, we may need another daily kos poll. Which would replace the +4, so even a +3 there would help trump a bit

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Mostly me tbh, don’t mind me

0

n/a

4 months ago

Why is everyone buying TRUMP?

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

That was my thought as well. I expect Quinn to absolutely be added

0

grappli

4 months ago

If I had to guess, they might be ignoring Ipsos because it included Kennedy. Let's see about the Quinnipiac poll, which should be out in a couple of hours

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

2 hours ago I got mocked for buying 2.5 No lol

3

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Assuming of course, they add Reuters. Which is likely but not a lock, RCP plays by their own rules.

0

MalikNabers

4 months ago

As expected there. 2.5 needs a drop Kamala +7 or 2 polls averaging Kamala +4.5

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

As expected there. 2.5 needs a drop Kamala +7 or 2 polls averaging Kamala +4.5

0

grappli

4 months ago

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_48_harris_46 Rasmussen just dropped, +2 Trump

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

That poll would have to be a Kamala +7

0

diddy

4 months ago

Yes, your NO is at huge risk, not a smart move if old poll drops

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Scared money don’t make money.

1

diddy

4 months ago

Yes, your NO is at huge risk, not a smart move if old poll drops

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I have Rasmussen coming it at +2 and that they will add Reuters as listed (they have in the past) and that puts it at 2. May get another poll by noon tomorrow, may not.

0

diddy

4 months ago

Tbh, I don’t care which way it goes, I have both shares, it gets or doesn’t get added, it’s the same to me

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

It depends on how they ask the question in the crosstabs. Explain to me why they haven’t added a USA Today head to head all year?

1

diddy

4 months ago

They haven’t added it yet same with Yahoo, it went first to 5 way race

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

**panic as all the confident traders realize the +5 will not be tallied in the head to head**

3

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Yes. They included it in the multi- candidate. As they always do.

0

diddy

4 months ago

Mate, RCP will include USA Today because they are needy for all post-DNC polls, I sent them an e-mail

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

(See below)

0

TheOneB

4 months ago

some good polls are coming out, should be added to RCP shortly

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Ayeeee someone figured it out!

0

SkillzThatKillz

4 months ago

USA Today is already included in the 5-way race, but not included in head-to-head. I do think they’ll include Reuters, which will put Kamala up +1.88.

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Wow it’s nice you seem genuinely nice about it!

1

diddy

4 months ago

Sorry man…I figured out you did

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Oh shit I was looking at Trump Biden!!! I’m fucked

2

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

It’s added brother.

0

diddy

4 months ago

You will see 2.1 when it’s added :)

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

I’ll give you a hint. They already added the USA Today.

0

L114

4 months ago

2.5+ might or might not hit, but i wouldnt feel comfortable holding that bet tbh

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?

MalikNabers

4 months ago

Deciding whether to say something or let you geniuses figure it out yourselves

2

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Fair

1

Justifax

5 months ago

There should be a rule that you're only allowed to talk smack if you've bought up to 90s.

Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

This is cooked. We hadn’t even started counting our fake ballots yet, that starts at 3 am.

4

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Good luck genius

2

n/a

5 months ago

lawsuit incoming

RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Cry more tears

3

coolguy69

5 months ago

I'm fucking deleting my account. This is horse cock

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Nice seeing you here TT - fitzy

1

truthteller

5 months ago

guys polymarket has already resolved it. stop waiting your time and money

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

I’ll gladly buy it with my 9k profit pleb

1

432

5 months ago

get a new tampon

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Down 2k weak ass gambler

1

hillary2win

5 months ago

he didn't drop out

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Cry more

0

hillary2win

5 months ago

he didn't drop out

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Imagine buying no for dirt cheap and expecting then to flip it for you. Y’all deserve to lose your money.

0

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Lol the sore losers are really gonna make us wait 3 days for our money?

1

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Lolllll

0

anciano

5 months ago

Aside from the fact that anyone with even a semblance of a brain understands that RFK has in fact dropped out, the fact is that poly has *already* resolved that he has dropped out regarding the "by November" and "before September" markets! (That means he has dropped out "by Friday" for you morons who are disputing this.)

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

He’s got 60k of RFK endorses yes. It’s a really tough argument to say he endorsed but didn’t withdraw.

1

Slaylorswift

5 months ago

You’re telling me the persons who’s up 150k and has 100k shares of no is gonna be wrong? gL

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

I mean…. He did withdraw. But we’ll see.

3

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Shouldn’t the rules have an exact time that the polling is checked? Also it’s confusing about posting on the 8th day to get results for the 7th day? That’s not really how the polling average works

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

WE LIT

5

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Yup yup yup yup

2

YIMBYcaucus🏡

5 months ago

yup yup yup

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

You’re high TT

1

truthteller

5 months ago

the odds aren't gonna be close enough to make that possible

What will Trump say during Wednesday speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

The truth social post was a dead give away

0

SlaylorGiftFromGod

5 months ago

Keep it simple: he just used Comrade Kamala, so he will remember it. He hasn’t said Zelensky in like a month, so he won’t remember it.

What will Trump say during Wednesday speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

I woulda been so tilted lol

0

SlaylorGiftFromGod

5 months ago

Third World War lmao he is so funny. Thank god he didn’t say Kamala Comrade

What will Trump say during Wednesday speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Finally a nice bink

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

She constantly had “Donald Trump will ban abortion” in her stump speech

5

KingofRingx3

5 months ago

Also the word "Abortion" is a bit of a nono to use. I don't think it will be used in a prepared speech

Who will speak at the DNC?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Seems like you’re the one who needs the gl lol

8

dreamer

5 months ago

gl everyone

Who will speak at the DNC?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Michelle confirmed

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Good

0

stupidarb

5 months ago

how we feeling about trans?

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

If you actually believe this you should be shoving all your money in this market right now.

1

qlemxis

5 months ago

Gold medal “locks” for USA: M 4x400m (34), W 4x400m (35), M Bball (36), W Bball (37) Gold medal favorites for USA: W Soccer (38) Other realistic chances: W 200m Canoe (39), W Volleyball (40), ?? Other wrestling (41) Gold medal “locks” for China: W Team Table tennis (33), W 81kg Weightlifting (34), M 102kg Weightlifting (35) Gold medal favorites for China: M Platform diving (36), W Swimming Duet (37), W Middleweight boxing (38) Other realistic chances: W Flyweight boxing (39), W Welterweight boxing (40). The "modal outcome" is a 38-38 tie, unless China wins at least one of the two boxing bouts coming up today

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Doesn’t look like they agree with you

1

KingofRingx3

5 months ago

actually china won round1

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

I’m not watching but it looks like China must be getting peppered with jabs in the ring

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Good thing we have Ronda Rousey going.

0

0x8D698FF2D1E90253CA3227564bAFD2e2ced99dDB-1723230400794

5 months ago

2 womens boxing finals coming upnnow for China. They need to win at least one of them.

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Wemby tho… jk we clowning them

0

diddy

5 months ago

Imagine USA losing vs France in basketball lol

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Comeback city

1

2024 July hottest on record?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Losing once, and deciding “therefore this must not be profitable” is a big reason why you are not profitable.

2

tomn

5 months ago

yeah this was a crazy few days it was not fun losing a few thousand but now it confirms i should not be betting on the weather

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Track is like the most Olympic event there is lmao

3

0xCb9cF4773A232Ac612E656dF7733e659E1eEf515-1722999050018

5 months ago

USA getting from swimming and track? Kinda fucking lame as well dude... learn from Aussie

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Should count as half a gold

4

tomn

5 months ago

china gets half their golds from diving and table tennis that's lame af

2024 July hottest on record?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

That was a fun game of “follow the guy who seems smart” look forward to the next.

0

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Ggs

5

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

To where? Exactly

0

grappli

5 months ago

Y'all better start dumping

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

My goodness you managed to hold the worse possible positions

1

Apsalar

5 months ago

oops

2024 July hottest on record?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

You’re in the hole $500 lol

0

FranciscoJoseEliasNavarro

5 months ago

The Y guys are scared af 🤣

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

You are incredibly desperate

1

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

This isn't completely dead yet. I have all events that are realistically winnable for both teams. If USA wins their locks but loses their 50/50 or worse events and China wins their locks and their 50%+ events this ends up 41 China and 39 USA. So your saying there's a chance

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Dude you sound desperate. Just try to enjoy the sweat. Never bet money you can’t lose.

1

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

China somehow got 5 boxers into the finals. One already lost in a split decision but if they can win 3 golds there that would be a game changer for this market

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

It’s very close to Sportsbook odds so imagine it’s pretty fair

0

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

I missed wrestling so it is really closer to 38 for US and 35 for China with current projections. That makes me think the market is actually pretty fairly priced

Democratic VP nominee?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Fiddy/fiddy

1

Democratic VP nominee?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Take a position then

6

0x11F0ceb5aD608E9Ab29d9507588df3a92579b5Eb-1721599133047

5 months ago

I still think it’s Shapiro.. Walz is a dumb choice.

Democratic VP nominee?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Get help.

8

TheGuru

5 months ago

Imagine if y'all are all thinking it's Walz or Shapiro and it's actually Hillary Clinton lol. Would be hilarious and I'd be a millionaire

Democratic VP nominee?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Call and I shall answer

2

Arbguy

5 months ago

BALLZ TO THE WALZ

Who will endorse Kamala?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Congrats to no holders. Lost a few hundred in this market. Y’all played it well. Gg

8

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

They will and it won’t be enough ;)

0

oxamo

5 months ago

I don't think that information is publicly available. I think the real bet here is whether or not Rasmussen Reports will be included in the average on Friday. I'm betting yes

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

:)

1

Munners

5 months ago

Kindly

Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?

MalikNabers

5 months ago

Let’s dance kids

2