Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around whether Russia will capture Vuhledar before October 2024 is highly divided, with members of the community debating the interpretation of available data and past voting outcomes. The market decision has gone through several disputes and re-evaluations, with it often being considered "too early" to make a final judgment. As the timeline for resolution approaches, participants are torn between those who anticipate a "Yes" outcome based on past votes and those who interpret official maps and additional context to indicate a "No". Miscommunications, technical glitches, and differing interpretations of the voting results have contributed to uncertainty and frustration among participants.

Unofficial Captures: There has been discourse concerning reports that Vuhledar might have been captured by Russia unofficially, but this information has not been validated conclusively, leading to differing opinions on the market status.
Voting Outcomes and Market Resolution: The outcome determination has faced several disputes and was often seen as "Too Early," leading to confusion and calls for further proposals and clarification.

Comments

Here are the facts: 1) If Russia captures an area and then it is recaptured, it will be shaded blue 2) The area of interest is not shaded blue and is not shaded red thus has never been and is not currently controlled by Russia.

Liked by n/a, tsybka and 14 others

Ukrainian forces couldn't have recaptured the mistakenly marked map in just half an hour, lol.

"This is a market on whether Russia controls the intersection of Desantnykiv Vulytsia and Shakhtarska Vulytsia in Vuhledar Ukraine according to the ISW map. As of the time of this update, the ISW map does not indicate any past or present Russian control as indicated by red or blue shading. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered."

There is so much of confusion in the comments regarding the capture of the intersection, and the rule: "Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market." Obviously this intersection was red for about 30 minutes by mistake, since any subsequent loss of control would have been marked on the map in BLUE. The result cannot be based on erroneous information.

Lol, it was a map error.

"Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market."

https://deepstatemap.live/#13/47.7735407/37.2757530

Map is updated for September 30th and it is not shaded red. GG.

I don't know, I've never seen this intersection painted red. If I look at the ISW report on September 29th, I don't see any records that this intersection/city was captured or any information that would indicate this. And now they published fresh map for September 30th and intersection clearly not captured.

Guys, if Ukraine recaptured it would be marked blue. IT WAS A GLITCH nothing more

You're trying to win on a technicality. The market is about them capturing that intersection and they haven't according to ISW. If ISW glitched for 1 second and showed all of Ukraine red, would all markets resolve that way, no.

Thats not in the polymarkrt rules so its not relevant here