Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains? | Polymarket Tracker

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Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Last updated 2 months ago

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Summary

The discussion surrounding the "Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?" betting market reveals significant doubts about Kamala Harris' explicit endorsement of this policy. Participants debate whether support from Harris' representatives or references to her campaign's official proposals suffice as explicit backing, sparking controversy over the clarity needed for the market to resolve. Many highlight skepticism about Harris issuing a clear statement given Wall Street's scrutiny, with some traders strategically taking positions based on anticipated volatility and interpretations of policy announcements.

There is a consensus that explicit and official endorsement from Kamala Harris herself is necessary for the betting market's resolution, causing contention among participants about what constitutes explicit support.
Traders express varying levels of confidence in their positions, often influenced by perceptions of Harris' political strategy and market sentiment on the viability of her unreserved backing of the unpopular tax.

Comments

🤺JustPunched

DIdn't think I owned any shares, but looks like I have 500 shares of No. I think its No (so far) tbh.

fuck it. copy trading JustKen

Im never copytrading 50pence again. Im from now on copy trading Apsalar

Wow that was the Yes holders entire argument? I was so scared 50P had like some secret Kamala video or something lol. I feel so much more comfortable

Why is this disputed? She supports unrealized capital gains tax.

market resolution requires **explicit** support, and the harris campaign (probably intentionally) never done this. all arguments for the Yes side rely on mental gymnastics and or implicit statements made by the campaign. The discord discussion is worth seeing for those interested: https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1288946906592051362

if your analysis requires 4 steps (most of which do not follow from each other", then the support is clearly not explicit. the twitter post doesnt even say she supports it, (only that the thing trump is criticizing her for supporting applies to those with $100M or more, which does not imply that she supports it). in any case, it is not **explicit** support, which is what this market requires. there is absolutely no evidence, of any kind, that kamala harris or her campaign has **explicitly** supported a tax on unrealized gains. the campaign is clearly intentionally trying to avoid explicitly saying anything about this. therefore, the only logical conclusion is that she has not yet explicitly supported a tax on unrealized gains.

Her official channel clarified that Harris's tax on unrealized capital gains would apply only to people with "with at least $100 million in wealth." https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1827073628162130283 So, let's go through this. 1. Harris says that she supports Biden's tax package, which includes a "billionaire minimum tax," which is administration's idea to tax unrealized capital gains of people with $100M in wealth. 2. Trump sees that and says that Harris idea to tax unrealized capital gains will kill small business owners. 3. Harris's official Twitter channel debunks Trump's statement by saying that the tax on unrealized capital gains "applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth." 4. Harris explicitly says that she supports a "billionaire minimum tax" in both her policy document and on Twitter. That makes her support even more explicit.

So is transgenderism, but here we are... Stop underestimating your enemies.

tax on unrealized gains is such an obvious gimmick from the democrats. its pure stupidity

« Announcement by Kamala Harris and/or her representatives »

Read the rules: only if she explicitly states, not her advisors not Tim Walz etc. Has to be her and she risks ruining her donation base by doing it.

She's talking about her economic policies live right now, but here's her full economic plan that was just released. No mention of an unrealized gains tax, it just talks about long-term capital gains. https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf