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Summary
In the discussion regarding Kamala Harris potentially dropping out of the presidential race, several key topics emerged. There is speculation about Harris's electoral prospects, with some users discussing her strong yet challenged candidacy, including eroded support among key voter demographics. Others suggest market overvaluation of her likelihood to win, positing that betting odds don't accurately reflect current electoral dynamics. Additionally, users underscored the importance of understanding market rules, such as whether suspending or pausing a campaign equates to withdrawal. Economic strategies and returns on investment also feature in the conversation, indicating different approaches to the market by participants.
- Electoral Dynamics: Kamala Harris is viewed as a strong contender, facing challenges such as fluctuating poll numbers and decreased support from certain voter groups, yet she remains active in her campaign with viable chances of success.
- Market Interpretation and Strategy: Participants discuss the implications of market rules, the accuracy of odds in reflecting real-world scenarios, and various economic strategies, including hedging and returns on investments.
Comments
nola72324
3 months ago
You know, maybe adding assassination markets is not a good idea for a company trying to be legitimate
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Liked by 🥥💊De..., Munners and 13 others
BigBetsBonanza
3 months ago
Highly likely she drops out I think!!! For sure!!
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LMNOP
2 months ago
Here we are again with limited effort by PM to think through the "but what if" Rules scenarios. If she "suspends" or "pauses" her campaign, does this count as "withdraw"? Current Rules indicate a clear "No". Is PM going to issue an 11th hour "suspend = withdraw" Additional Comments here well after the majority of votes are cast? Please for the love of god PM, hire one competent technical/political writer.
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CheerfulPessimist
3 months ago
any day now!
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BigBetsBonanza
3 months ago
Highly likely she drops out I think!!! For sure!!
MichaelFowlie
3 months ago
This market is overpriced if you look at the winner party and winner = Kamala markets, which imply a 1% chance that a Dem other than Kamala wins, which should have this market at 2%.
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Malganis
2 months ago
you dont really know how this work do you?
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LMNOP
2 months ago
Here we are again with limited effort by PM to think through the "but what if" Rules scenarios. If she "suspends" or "pauses" her campaign, does this count as "withdraw"? Current Rules indicate a clear "No". Is PM going to issue an 11th hour "suspend = withdraw" Additional Comments here well after the majority of votes are cast? Please for the love of god PM, hire one competent technical/political writer.
Rafin
3 months ago
Well, in theory this market could resolve into yes even after she wins the nomination. Still, this is starting to get ridiculous.
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MichaelFowlie
3 months ago
This market is overpriced if you look at the winner party and winner = Kamala markets, which imply a 1% chance that a Dem other than Kamala wins, which should have this market at 2%.
PresidentialRace.net
2 months ago
Many belive Harris will become the next President, get a 1.6x return by betting on Kamala at PresidentialRace.net/bet
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iamhungry
1 month ago
There is no way she drops out
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MrBilly
1 month ago
release diddy tapes and let big mike in
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