Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion on the betting market about California's SB 1047 AI Safety Bill indicates significant debate and uncertainty regarding the bill's potential passage. Several participants expressed skepticism about Governor Newsom’s actions, with many predicting a veto due to the bill's controversial nature and high-profile opposition, including figures like Nancy Pelosi and concerns from companies like OpenAI. Others noted the likelihood of last-minute or strategic decisions by Newsom, reflecting on his past behavior with controversial legislations. There was also considerable discussion on the potential implications of the bill for AI companies, especially concerning regulatory burdens and the chilling effect on open-source models.

Governor's Decision: There is widespread speculation about whether Governor Newsom will veto the bill or not, with many indicators pointing towards a veto given historical precedence and pressure from significant opposition.
Implications for AI Companies: Concerns are raised about the bill’s potential to impose regulatory burdens, impact open-source AI model development, and enforce accountability measures that could discourage innovation and transparency in the AI sector.

Comments

MediaConsensusForThee

Baal, I call you, come here immediately!

Newsom might forget to sign it. He's a busy guy

The bill just got passed by the legislature: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/28/technology/california-ai-safety-bill.html

Elon said yes https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1828205685386936567?t=NjncU4ipMDVMpx-wy7V-XA&s=19

loool bro is absolutely flipping out his $130 50x play didn't hit

MediaConsensusForThee

Baal, I call you, come here immediately!

This too shall pass.

This bill is incredibly light and has been watered down. Also this doesn't affect anyone except the largest companies in the space lol

A simple example of how stupid this bill is. Today, if I use a computer to do a cyber attack the person who made the computer is not liable. Now if I use AI which is 1% better than just using the computer, the AI company is liable. That's tots insane.

If the law is signed, a very likely outcome is that you will not be allowed to use or download Llama 3.1 if you are in California. Another outcome will be you will not be able to use advanced OpenAI APIs if you are in California.

A pocket signature resolves to ‘Yes’, right? I don’t want to be screwed over by vague rules if he doesn’t do anything. If there’s no veto or signing at all, it’ll automatically become law.

SB 1047 promotes the safety of AI systems, making it a crucial step toward securing California's technological future. Approval by the state assembly before August 31 indicates a strong political will to pass the bill. If the Governor signs it, the bill will become law by September 30. Even if vetoed, the legislature could override the veto, ensuring the bill's enactment. Therefore, all indications suggest the market should resolve to "Yes" if SB 1047 becomes law by the deadline.