Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election? | Polymarket Tracker

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Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?

Last updated 3 months ago

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Summary

The discussion revolves around predictions for the Canadian election, particularly which party will secure the second most seats. Users are sharing links to different polling and prediction websites, indicating varying forecasts for the Bloc Québécois (BQ), New Democratic Party (NDP), and Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). The differences in forecasts suggest some uncertainty and differing opinions on the possible outcomes.

There is disagreement among users regarding the party that will place second in terms of seats, with some predicting the Bloc Québécois and others suggesting the New Democratic Party or Liberal Party.
External polling resources like 338Canada and Poliwave are being used to substantiate these claims, pointing to a reliance on data-driven insights for predictions.

Comments

LPC is overvalued and BQ is undervalued here

Intendant-Jean-Talon

What will tactical voting change in this conservative super majority?

it wont be BQ because of tactical voting

Anonexceptcookie

The polls still give the bloq the highest chance of taking the second most seats. Many people here don't understand first past the post voting means Liberal popularity doesn't translate into seats riding to riding. The NDP and Liberals are divided on the left and the CPC hasn't changed downward in ridings for half a year. Unless you're going to ride the leadership race up and then pull out at last second I don't know why you're wasting your money. Amazing stuff.

Intendant-Jean-Talon

New 338Canada map just dropped

buddy tries to lecture and then presumes he is smarter than other people whilst doesn't recognize his own blindsides and risk, c'est drole

Anonexceptcookie

The polls still give the bloq the highest chance of taking the second most seats. Many people here don't understand first past the post voting means Liberal popularity doesn't translate into seats riding to riding. The NDP and Liberals are divided on the left and the CPC hasn't changed downward in ridings for half a year. Unless you're going to ride the leadership race up and then pull out at last second I don't know why you're wasting your money. Amazing stuff.

Buying Bloc at under 20c/share is a steal. If the nominee is indeed Carney, the francophone vote will go overwhelmingly to the Bloc. Moreover, since it is first-past-the-post, the bloc could easily reach 45/78 Quebec seats. 338canada.com currently shows the bloc at 42, and this does not take into account the fact that the polls under predicts the bloc since bloc support is heavily concentrated in the 65+ age group which is by far the most likely to vote. Finally, Pierre will still cook the libs in English Canada regardless of who is leader. With Trudeau as leader the libs were in the mid30s seat projection, but even with Carney they are gonna struggle reaching 50 and surpassing the bloc. For instance, pierre won a byelection in downtown toronto, in one of the safest liberal strongholds that hasnt voted conservative since the 80s. Even if carney recovers some support, it will not be enough and the 905 GTA suburbs alongside the entire west coast will overwhelmingly vote conservative. He will not even be able to hold all of downtown Toronto.

Intendant-Jean-Talon

I'm sad, I sold my bloc shares yesterday. Poilievre is too stupid and Jagmeet too to split more the liberal vote. Carney is just being hyped by the media because Poilievre wants to cut in media funding. Conservative will get 200 plus seats anyway but Carney will save Liberal from humiliation. I still hope I'm wrong and see a glorious Bloc opposition

People are betting for a liberal comeback with the new leadership.

Why is bloc dirt cheap? Can no buyers please explain their reasoning?

Intendant-Jean-Talon

CPC and LPC tied with Carney

BQ, NDP then LIB https://www.poliwave.com/Canada/Federal/canada.html

BQ, LPC, NDP https://338canada.com/federal.htm